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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
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- [00:19]
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- [00:50]
Colin Cowherd
Hi, it's Colin from the Colin Coward Podcast. I've been around long enough to know quality when I see it, or in this case, when I taste it. Tito's Handmade Vodka. Good stuff. No flash, no gimmick. Smooth, clean tasting, made the right way. Tito's made in Austin, Texas. Real attention to detail. I like to keep it simple. Tito's Soda one lime, lot of ice, Refreshing, easy Summer, winter, spring. Totally versatile. Always works. Listen, baseball season's here. The perfect time to kick back with some Tito's. It's what I pour. You should too. Distilled and bottled by 5th Generation Inc. Austin, Texas 40% alcohol by volume. Savor responsibly.
- [01:31]
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- [02:39]
Simon Hunter
Welcome to the Favorites the podcast part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network continuing our division by division previews. Let's welcome in my co host, my companion, my compadre My BFF professional better Simon Hunter.
- [03:03]
Chad Millman
Chad, I'm so happy that we have gotten through the hall of Fame game. The the Cam Newton Jalen hurts Discourse has been left in July. We are on to August with the dumb football talk has moved to just guys in practice. And I have to know, how are you feeling about Caleb Williams? I mean this has just been INSANITY these last 72 hours. Where is, where is Chad Millman, the Bears fan head out right now?
- [03:29]
Simon Hunter
I am so. It's funny. I, I forgot. I feel like I mentioned it in one of our Western Division previews. Something about the Bears and who they're going to be playing and what they challenge. Are they a challenge on the schedule? And I think it's the Raiders actually. And look, my head is spinning. Every second is a temperature check on Caleb Williams. Our friend Colin Cowherd it feels like because he's now a Chicago, a citizen of the suburbs of Chicago, he is talking about Caleb in every show. And my entire feed of whatever I check on social media is Caleb sucks. Look at this throw by Caleb. Caleb sucks. Look at this catch by Luther Burden. Caleb sucks. Look at this catch by Roma Dunes A like I'm so all over the map. The Bears are disappointed. The Bears are happy. Ben Johnson takes it on himself if the team isn't prepared. Caleb is progressing at the rate they want him to progress. The whole thing is mind boggling and I don't know what to do about it other than be really glad that I bet the packers at 20 something to one to win the Super Bowl.
- [04:57]
Chad Millman
I told you this was going to happen two weeks ago. I said this guy's offensive system is brutally complicated and I wouldn't pay attention to any Caleb Williams talk until about two weeks before the season just because I knew it was just me awful like this. It just, it's just the way it is when you bring a new system. When you've gone from literally having the easiest coaching staff that really didn't care to a perfectionist that wants to run his way, there's going to be growing pains. My, my favorite thing is just Bears media where I saw a clip of a Bears guy saying how Caleb's regressed and it was him taking a snap under center, dropping back and it was a free runner in his face. And Caleb threw that like over a guy's head or to some guy's feet, which was the only play to make other than take a sack. And this guy's talking about how he's regressed and it's just like this is this is August. This is my favorite part of it where it's just like, if guys have different allegiances, like these different media members don't like Asians, so they don't like these players. There's different little things like, that people need to be aware of. So, yeah, I love this time of year. Every little thing in camp to me is the best. Even the holdouts, like, people are sick of the drama. I love it all because it's all theater, right? That's. That's the most fun part about it. And the fact that it's in my division. I mean, this is the best. This is literally my dream scenario now. 2, 2 division foes, top players are holding out. It doesn't get much better for me as an Eagles fan.
- [06:12]
Simon Hunter
Well, look, I had the strangest experience. We're going to get to the AFC west and I, as of this morning, I was breaking down practice video of Josh Simmons, the new likely left tackle and rookie from Ohio State, going up against Chris Jones for the Chiefs. I had the strange experience last night. I'm sitting at dinner with my wife and we're realizing that our younger son is, as of today, 23 days away from going to college. Stacy and I were having dinner together last night. He was out. And as we're talking a. We realized when he leaves, there might not be any reason for us to talk to each other anymore. Like, she will be doing her thing, I'm doing my thing. There's no sort of structure to make us come down and eat at the same time anymore because we're both busy with life and the kid was the thing that made us eat together. But all of a sudden, she started asking me about betting. She was like, so if a team is minus seven, they have to win by more than seven for you to win your bet. I want to be like, I was so thrilled she was engaged and interested and I didn't want to be like, dude, I've been doing this for 27 years. At this point now, after books, after giving up on ESPN and starting freaking Action Network, after creating a life that is entirely around this industry. Now you're asking me about what it means if a team is a seven point favorite. But I didn't. I patiently explained. And in the end she's like, I don't know, man. Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. And that's where we landed.
- [08:05]
Chad Millman
Sounds like she's dipping the toes in. She wants to get on the action. So I, I like it.
- [08:08]
Simon Hunter
She's maybe, you know, what it is actually. Maybe on Sundays. She knows I'm going to be miserable without a kid. So she's thinking how can she sort of improve our collective lives? Because if I'm miserable all day with the bedding and he's gone, she might want to be helpful in some way.
- [08:29]
Chad Millman
It's true.
- [08:31]
Simon Hunter
At one point on the show, Simon, we gotta dig in deep on my conversation with the sports performance psychiatrist that I had to break down how I make decisions and how I feel and how during actual games that I've bet on. I know I told you I was going to do this for the book. I had the conversation the other day. Fascinating preview of what we're going to do to come. We're going to go through every team in the AFC and the nfc. As you all know, today we are talking about the AFC west, home of the best franchise in football over the last half decade in the Kansas City Chiefs. Much as it pains our friend Matt Mitchell. Also, Simon Hunter might argue that a team that's won a Super bowl and been to a Super bowl could compete with that mantle. But let the Patriots dominance in the East a generation ago, they've relied on a weak division full of disarray. Is that changing with Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh now coaching teams in the AFC West? We will discuss Simon first one up Kansas City Chiefs division odds minus 120 conference odds plus 325 Super bowl plus 850 and kind of dropping. It had been at plus 750 win total 11 and a half. I said at the top as I was doing research this morning, my primary area that I wanted to get some answers on is have they solved their left tackle issue right? That is what cost them the super bowl last year. That was a huge issue for them all season long. It has been an issue for them going past the couple of years. Going, going back the past couple of years. They drafted Josh Simmons out of Ohio State. They signed Jaylen Moore from the Niners, both of them to compete for the left tackle spot. Simmons has clearly taken the lead and has taken all the first team reps in practice. Like I said, there was a video of him practicing taking his first snaps against Chris Jones when he was lining up on the outside. And like you just made a note, you know the, the writers who cover these teams freaking out because he anchored and dropped his hips when Jones tried to get leverage. Obviously we are going to love the Chiefs at +850. I don't think they've solved everything. They still have receiver Issues. As much as Rasheed Rice has been dominating, he still may be suspended. Xavier Worthy's in concussion protocol. Hollywood Brown injured his ankle last week. He still hasn't been practicing. Give me your thoughts here, Simon.
- [11:07]
Chad Millman
We're very blessed and lucky to live in a time where the Chiefs exist. If you're a sports better, if you're a fan of football, maybe you're sick of one, but as a sports better, it's just been, it's a dream. This is like the dream team to bet on because you're investing money here in August and you know it's going to come down to the final game in the AFC championship game. Mahomes has played seven full seasons. Chad, we all know the stats. Five Super Bowls, seven conference championship games. So it's like he's going to get you the AFC championship game. He might lose it. Right. Like we keep talking about Lamar, Josh, Allen, they are in the football world, they are so do mathematically like to keep repeating what the Chiefs have done. It just doesn't happen. Like people can go back and watch those Patriots teams, they always hit random bumps in the road, right? There's always like Brady incredible run, you know, he wasn't doing the starter's career. It just, it just this isn't normal. Like there's always going to be the next better team or the team that the luck breaks their way and you know, last year it was an anomaly once again where they went 15 and one in the regular season. None of that makes sense. Like this is not a team that should be going 15:1 and you know, resting starters to end the season like they were that dominant and one score games. They had a ton of luck. But everyone knows it's, it's luck. But it's also the coaching staff and Mahomes like it's just that combo that they get these teams in these four quarters and they get their death grip on them. So plus 850 like again, we'll talk about it. People know what I like to do here. When these odds are below 10 to 1, I tend to do matchups. So if you want to do Chiefs versus Rams, Chiefs versus Eagles, you know those are positions I've taken at this point. But yeah, this division odds, the fact that the highest any book has had is minus 120, there's still some 110s out there. You have to love that value on this team this year and it should be what it is, right? I, I do get why the number is this low. Because you know we talked Months ago. This is the best coach individ in all football. Like they have all these old heads, all these hall of Famers that just know how to do it right. And these are the type of guys that you can give them and they'll stir it, turn it to gold. And it's like, you know, last year Harbaugh was perfect example of that. He brought in his D.C. coordinator from Michigan, totally revamped that defense, totally revamped the offense with Greg Roman. The Charge were a playoff team, you know, pretty damn good. Like it was one of Herbert's best years, you could say same could be said expected for what happened with Bo Nix and Sean Payton. Now you look at the Chiefs though, and they're met minus 110 for this division. Chad, so I don't know about you, this is a number right away I ran to the window and took. They were 10 to 1. No joke, they were 10 to 1 Super bowl odds a couple months ago. So that's a number I've been betting as well. Now that it's down to +850. You can still do it. But like I said I would, I'd rather bet the matchups where you get 50 to 1 like I had last year, 65 to 1. That's to me that's better tying your money up for six, seven months here. But if your biggest question right now, Chad is the receiver position, I think you're going to be okay. Like worthy. To me he's got a ton of talent. I think he's a stud. Rice might miss four games. That's not a problem for this team. This team just literally does not care about September or October. Like this is a November, December, January, February team. So not a problem to me Kelsey's under the new phase of his career. He's more of a blocking tight end at this point. Damn good blocking tight end I might say. So to me it's, it's all there for them to win this division again. You know, be the 1, 2 or 3 seed. We, we don't care if they're on the road in the playoffs. It's just, it's Mahomes in the playoffs. So yeah, to me it's a great time to be a football fan. Like we are so blessed as a better have this type of team where we know me and Chad know the deal if it's over three and a half, we fade them during the regular season. If it's under three in a field goal, if he's catching points as a dog, Mahomes it's simple. We just go by the book. So, yeah, it's, it's. It's a fun team to bet on and I get why the general public is sick of them, but nothing's going to change. They're great drafting teams. So. Yeah, minus, minus 110 division odds, probably my best bet for this team, this division.
- [15:06]
Simon Hunter
What about. We've talked a little bit about parlaying them because they're a minus number. With other teams like the Texans, who are a little bit of plus number to win the AFC South. Are there parlay combinations that you've been looking at and thinking about with the minus number?
- [15:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah, like, I have them. I, I don't. I never go above 3 unless I'm going really small in the number. So say I'm putting four to five figures on these parlays. The most I'll go is three. And if I'm really going large, I only go two. Like right now, if I'm going just afc, my two favorite teams of parlay, it's going to be the Chiefs and the Bills. Like, there just isn't a world. I don't say the of these teams. And I know people are like, well, that's lazy. It happens every year. That's why I love it. Every year I go to the books and I've made this bet since Mahomes. You know, I didn't do it his first year. I did think he'd be good, but it was kind of a weird thing where I still really did believe in Herbert at that time. This is a little different where, you know, we're at the point now of I just have Josh Allen's career. I think he's in the prime. Moms. I think he's in a prime. So if you're looking for very lazy safe, to me, that's the safest one. Where I do love Lamar. We'll get to the Ravens. I love them this year. There is a little bit of risk with that just because of Lamar's playing style. We've seen him go down where Josh Allen just seems to hold up. So. Yeah. But when you want to stretch it, Chad, like, yeah, we're going to get to it. I love obviously the Eagles for their division. They're a team that another team that's just, I think, above and beyond their, their, their foes in their division. And you know, when you go through all the different divisions, it's last year kind of felt like it was really easy, right? It kind of felt like we all knew Detroit was going to win their division. It wasn't that easy, Chad. It came down to that last game against the Vikings and I had to make a huge hedge because I was, I can't believe it looking back, but I was scared of Sam Darnold in that last game that he could pull the upside off and win that division. So that's why I like taking these positions. Like, you know, you're getting 3 to 1, 2 to 1 on these divisional odds. It's just so I can hedge it at the end of the season. It's easier to take positions rather than bet them straight.
- [17:14]
Simon Hunter
You know, it's crazy. You mentioned Mahomes. His first full season playing was 2018. We're going to talk about the Cardinals and Kyler Murray later this week in the NFC west preview. Kyler Murray's first season with 2019. And if you think about those two quarterbacks in context, like Patrick Mahomes feels like he is a dominant player who has been at his peak and living in his peak since the day he started. And Kyler Murray, who's only one year behind in terms of full seasons played, feels like every year we are waiting for him to peak even though he had that injury. Patrick Mahomes had an injury too in his career that, that forced them to miss basically the rest of the season. It's just astonishing to put in context how quickly Patrick Mahomes was Hall of Fame worthy and how long he has performed at that peak level in the NFL. It's, it's remarkable. Like I'm looking at his stats right now, okay? First full season, 5,000 yards. Second full season 4,000 yards. Third full season 4,000 yards, fourth 4,000 yards. Fifth 5,000 yards, sixth 4,000 yards. Last year was the first year he's been a full time starter that he hasn't had 4,000 yards and he finished at 39:28. It was also his lowest number of passing touchdowns since 2019. I think that's the year he got hurt. And so like even at his middle drop off, he's still playing at such a high level. It's frightening how good this guy is.
- [19:04]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's the crazy part. You just said statistically that was his worst season. That last year was the year to get this team and they were unbeatable and they had the one see they had home throughout the. They had home playoffs. So that's why it's like we're going to get to the Bills. How hyped I am about the Bills team. It's just brutal when you got the big bad Chiefs on your side of the conference. They just, they, they break all the rules. He's the ultimate cheat coach. I just broke it down where it's like people are like, well, he's regressing. He's not as good as he's on his deep throws. He doesn't beat you with deep throws anymore. He beats you one yard at a time, one or two dump offs at a time. Like he just, he's so, it's, it's just right at a different level of mahomes at this point. Like he doesn't need to beat you downfield, he can just dink and dunk you. 25, 30 yard draw, 30 play drives just wear these teams out. And that's why come the fourth quarter, these teams are mentally exhausted. Where the Chiefs hit their stride, it's just, it's truly incredible watching them as a fan and someone that breaks down the film. It's just they're so well coached, so smartly put together. It's just, and that's the best part is everyone's last memories, him having the worst game, his career in the super bowl, them falling apart. Now they have the third best odds in the AFC because of that. It's just, that's why I love Betton. It's just the general public, they like the new, they like the new stuff. They don't like the old and used. So it's, it's a fun team to bet on right now just because the value is just insane.
- [20:24]
Simon Hunter
Los Angeles Chargers plus 300 to win the division, 11 to 1 to win the conference, 25 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Win total nine and a half. We know what this team wants to do. They want to run the ball. They want to be physical, they want to play great defense, right? They signed Mai Beckton from the Eagles to fortify the offensive line. They resigned Rashawn Slater. They have Joe Alt. The interior of their offensive line was the challenge last year. Remember so many games where Justin Herbert was just under pressure immediately from the interior pressure, they drafted Amarian Hampton at running back. They did nothing to improve their receiving core. And maybe that doesn't matter. Maybe the way that Jim Harbaugh wants to play it and Greg Roman, the offensive coordinator wants to play it. They just want to focus on running the ball and play an elite defense, which they did do last year. First in points allowed, fifth in epa, ninth and defensive DVOA first in red zone touchdown percentage allowed. First in touchdown allowed in goal to go situations. But let's talk about Justin Herbert because when we did the quarterback show, I had him in the top 10. You did not. So let's talk about where your head is at and how that makes you think about this team and any of the value or lack of value. Super bowl odds, win total division odds, conference odds.
- [21:56]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I guess on that show we weren't doing a rank on who is the best athlete, who is the best thrower of the ball or gets the most stats. To me, that's all meaningless. If the goal of football is to win super bowl, if the goal of, of playing football is when playoff games and then win the Super Bowl, Herbert is not a top 10 quarterback in any measurement. This guy has struggled in these big moments. And you know, people make a million excuses for him because that's just the way society is now. Like, if someone likes a player like they like him, they will make so many excuses that makes your head spin where it's like everything you're saying is just bullshit. It's. We have the tape. We've watched him play and him struggle in these big moments. Is Herbert like that in the regular season? No, he's pretty good. That's why people get sucked in. They believe in it. And I just noticed during his career, in these big games, these tight games where he would get tight, he would struggle. That has not changed and horrible. You know, maybe you can cure it because this kid has all the talent in the world. And me and you both agree on that. I've liked the moves they made this offseason. I get why they didn't go like the attack in the wide receiver position. You invest in lad McConkey and you let you invest in Quentin Johnston. Like, those are high draft picks that you've invested big picks into. They don't need to attack wide receiver position. Now if they go out and get Keenan Allen, I would love that. Keane Allen as your third receiver, a veteran coming back and playing for his team. That to me, sounds like a logical move. I know it's money. That's money mudding up the water right now because he wants more than they're at, then they're giving to him. That's okay. I get it. But in a week or two, if they get Keane Allen here, that to me is a big upgrade to this team because we've seen it without a feeling on Carolina. Like, there's these veterans who still have gas in the tank that just on third down, second down there. You know, you can rely on them. Herbert will use that to his benefit. Right. He will use Keenan Allen. Now we're talking about Hampton to me is the biggest addition. Like they're. They plan they had offers in that first round pick to trade back. Like they were getting really good offers to move back and they stayed there and took a running back in the first round. And this is a team that we just talked about. Their identity is run first and you know we don't talk much fantasy here but this is a guy I'm taking it all my fantasy football leagues like when historically when a team takes a stance on taking on the first round, first round on a running back like we saw Detroit Gibbs, they're going to give them touches. Even if they're splitting carries, they're going to give them touches. It doesn't matter where they take them the first. They're going to get that player touches. Because that's such a high investment. You're kind of making a statement as a team passing on. I mean we just talked about like that guy Simmons. He would be pretty good add to this team they passed on him. I mean I don't know if you've heard about Jihad Campbell with the Eagles. He's been a stud for the Eagles. They passed on him again for a running back of this spot. So to me I kind of like what their identity is gonna stick with. I wouldn't. I honestly didn't want to fade this team because I'm. I just love the other teams division.
- [24:42]
Simon Hunter
You really want to fade this team?
- [24:43]
Chad Millman
I did but like the more I.
- [24:44]
Simon Hunter
Like everything you're saying is a shock to me right now.
- [24:46]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I can't. I can't give other people as under on this nine and a half. To me that's priced right just because I have him at 9, 9 and 8 this season. My model does. You know, that's not enough value to really take it where horrible to me. I don't think my model understands that he can, he can steal you one or two this year. That's just. That's how good of a coach he is to me. So if you do want to play the over I totally get it. I get why people love this team. Just because Herbert, just like we talked about Lamar and Allen, he will have a breakthrough season. What is that season though is that him beating Houston finally like it's just like we've been waiting every year we've been waiting right for him. I mean here they are once again plus 300 to win this division. Can he do it? And I don't know if he can because now this division, to me, Chad, is the best it's ever been. So that's the hesitation for me betting any of these. Any of these numbers with this team, like 11, one conference, there's other teams, division I'd rather bet. Like, to me, there's just no value there. So, yeah, the Chargers, I love what they've done coming into this season, how they're setting up for the future. But I'm still of the mindset that the last regime was so bad, they ruined this team so bad in so many ways. They're still, to me, a year or two away from being a true contender. So I'm not going to invest any money on them or against them at this point. I'm just. I'm not losing money. I'm betting they're under here. I just. It's too. It's too. It's too risky with horrible because he can just steal those games. So nine and a half, I think is properly priced.
- [26:10]
Simon Hunter
Right. When you go through the schedules of these teams, whether it's the Broncos or the Chargers, and we're talking about the Broncos next, you believe enough in the coaches.
- [26:19]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [26:20]
Simon Hunter
That you think, okay, they're going to steal a win. And we're going to talk about this with Pete Perrell, too. And the Raiders, they could steal a win or two in the division that gets them over the top. And because the division is so competitive, they will be able to. When they're playing teams outside the division, they're not going to be playing teams that are as good. And so they're going to benefit from playing such a competitive in division schedule. But it also means they might be at risk for losing more games than they otherwise would.
- [26:54]
Chad Millman
Oh, yeah. I mean, week one, like, you're, like, you're talking about division. They go to Brazil to play the Chiefs week one, which I think is good for them. Like, that is like kind of thing where you could steal that game. But then they have two. Two straight division games after that. Like, that's. That's tough. You start three division games to start the season and what you just talk about a really tough division and you know you're going on the road to Brazil coming back, and then it's like, okay, now we have to face the Raiders in Denver. It's like, that's a tough start to the season. Three straight divisional games. But like you just said, if they could Somehow steal it, go 3, 0 to start the season in their division, maybe this is finally the year for Herbert and all breaks right. But that's Also terrifying if you're a fan of them, where it's like, oh my God, we might have to go to Brazil. We get smoked by the Chiefs. Now we have two straight divisional games. That's, I mean, that's the recipe for being 1 and 2, 0 and 3. So pretty terrifying if you're a Chargers fan.
- [27:42]
Simon Hunter
I think I'm gonna have to ask my sports performance psychiatrist to do a pop psychiatry examination of Justin Herbert and why he chokes in these bigger games. Because, look, it's happened a couple times in the playoffs, right? Think about that Trevor Lawrence Jags game. Think about that Texans game last year. Think about prime time games in which this guy has had the chance to make a real statement and we were betting on them and it didn't work out right. And so is he destined to be one of those quarterbacks who's got great regular season stats and piles up the numbers? How is he going to get over the top? That's the question. And maybe, maybe the answer is give him a great fucking defense and a great running game and lessen the pressure in which he has to be making all the plays. Because I do think that's also been part of the problem is like they've had terrible coaching, terrible coordination, and they've put everything on his shoulders because he's so talented.
- [28:48]
Chad Millman
Yeah, no, it's a, it's a tough situation.
- [28:52]
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- [29:52]
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- [30:07]
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- [30:32]
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- [30:37]
Chad Millman
Ah, come on. Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.
- [30:41]
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- [30:55]
Chad Millman
Whoa, this thing moves.
- [30:57]
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- [31:15]
Simon Hunter
Denver Broncos this is a team Simon plus 325 in the division, 15 to 1 in the conference, 30 to 1 in the Super Bowl. Nine and a half wins total projections. You like the Broncos better than Chargers? I think if I'm gleaning anything from our conversations, if you had to choose the value between the two, my sense is it would be with Denver in some capacity.
- [31:47]
Chad Millman
Yeah, this is another number though that I've been hitting it from the day came out that it's moved too much now the division a lot. So if it was still plus 400 plus 450 like it was to me, that would have been when it was crazy value like that was just insane. The pros have been hitting this one and I think the public now started coming on because, you know, I love Nick Wright, but he moves numbers whether he realized it or not. And as soon as I saw him talking up Denver and how it's one of his favorite teams, I was like, okay, this is a problem. And I see Cowherd doing it. It goes, okay, this is a problem. All the guys on Fox FS1 are loving this guy. They're getting viewed by millions of people. A lot of these people bet they're going to start moving this number. So the division odds have moved a lot, their conference odds have moved a lot, and the super bods have come down. You could do it, if you want to. To me there's no value there and I, I just, I can't wrap my head around Bone Knicks being in that same level as Allen, Lamar and Mahomes. Like when you're thinking about betting him to win the conference or the super bowl, can you get there? Can you get there with your money? And, and knowing that that's gonna be a really tough decision when they do play each other because you will be the dog. So it's gonna be a little tougher for you to hedge in that position when he plays those guys in the playoffs if you are taking a position on him to win this super bowl or the conference. So you know, love this team because of the defense and the head coach. And then you think about what he's done with Bo Nix and we talked about it, when we talk about, you know, teams we love coming this year, that's how you know if I love Denver is that if there's anything in there left that he can ring out and keep improving, he will do that with Bo Nicks. Like that's what makes Sean Payton such a great coach is he can keep improving on these quarterbacks and find out their strength to making it get better and better. And between the offensive line, the wide receivers, I know they've drafted some running backs. Like it could all line up for this team for me in this division that they could be the one that finally dethrones Mahomes. But that's what sucks is it's moved so much now that there's another team this division that now has better odds that are better value at this point. So yeah, with Denver and Bo Nix it's, it's high hopes but I think at the end of the day it's just. Can or can you get there to think he could pull off the upsets of all upsets and beat those three, that three headed monster at the end that's waiting for him, Lamar, Josh, Allen or Mahomes, he's got to go through at least two of them. We know that for a fact. And I think it breaks really wrong. He might go through all three. So I just can't get there. Personally, I can't put my money into that. But if, if you, if you were out there, you can find a better than 375 number on this division odds, I wouldn't hate that. I got it right there. I got them at plus 300. So. Plus, you know, 75. That's, that's nice value to me. But it, it's, it's to me, it's just the bets that win total. Like, if you believe in this team over nine and a half, you got to take it like that. The only way they regress into that number is just because this division has improved so much. So, yeah, just looking at their schedule, the way it's all broken out, I like how it sets up for them this upcoming season. And the fact that they end, Chiefs, Chargers, those are the last two games at the end of the season. That's another way I like that to break for this type of team. So, yeah, I just. Nine and a half win told. That's the only real bet I'd give out on this show for. For Denver.
- [35:01]
Simon Hunter
Well, look, you're not wrong with sort of a lot of the pundits weighing in that the Broncos are, are getting a lot of heat. Like throughout training camp, through the training camp circuit, through the NFL, you know, grapevine, all the reporters talk to each other. They all start whispering about which team they like. And just to pull back the curtain a little bit, that's how these rumblings start. Forget about betting. But, you know, this person said they were at Broncos camp and they heard it from a scout, and then they tell one of their buddies who's covering the NFL and then they start telling other people. A lot of times these guys haven't even seen the Broncos practice. They probably haven't watched their tape. They haven't. Maybe they've seen a couple clips on Twitter, but that starts getting shared as sort of candy throughout the media ecosystem. And all of a sudden, the Broncos are one of those teams that everybody is talking about as being a Super bowl contender. I just saw it the other day. I saw like, you know, Mike Florio interview on Rich Eisen come across my feed, and Florio was talking about, are the Broncos one of those teams that can be a Super bowl contender? If it wasn't Florio, I apologize. It was somebody. And like, you see that and, you know, that's how these conversations start. And it's why these numbers start moving. And look, maybe the best way to help a young quarterback like Bo Nix is the same thing we just said about the Chargers. Run the ball, play great defense. And the Broncos, the Chargers had a really good defense. The Broncos had the best defense. They had the most active defense. They had Patrick Certain, who was defensive player of the year, first in sacks, first in expected points added. Like, they've added Hufanga, the safety from the Niners. They added Dre Greenlaw, the linebacker. They use their first pick on A cornerback, the kid from Texas, John Day Baron. So they're focused on defense and making sure that defense doesn't regress at all. So I can see why people are getting excited about him. But yeah, the numbers have moved.
- [37:22]
Chad Millman
Yeah Zach Allen, another guy on their D line might be like this guy is incredibly talented and he's just a workhorse. So you know this is like you're asking for the Chiefs offensive line. The Chiefs still have the best center all football it they built around that they're going to be all right. The Chiefs always forgot the offensive line. They Denver, they don't really have that grace where they, they had a great offensive line last year rejecting them another great offensive line this year and that to me is going to be the key to them where you know Bo Nix like they talk about him taking that Josh Allen step. That's what their hope is right. They're hoping he becomes Josh Allen type guy who can move, throw on the run like that strong can run through hits. That's a lot of weight to put on this kid's shoulder. So yeah that that offense line needs to hold up from last year to what they are this year and if Bonix takes that next step it's all there. I get why they're being hyped up right now because I saw weeks like months ago, you know when I looked at this team it was like okay, can they keep building on what they build off last year and it all comes down to the quarterback position and the unknown with Bo Nix and like I said it's. I just can't believe are we really gonna be sitting here a year from now being like yeah he did it. Bo Nix went to the FC championship game like he beat Lamar or Mahomes or Josh Allen larae there like it's just, it happens. That's why I love football so much. These, these quarterbacks, you see it coming but it's hard to believe it beforehand and we've seen the flash of bow next year. They, they overachieved so much last year it's how much are they going to regress or how much are they going to improve. That's the hardest part trying to measure this team right now because there are a lot of red flags about them regressing but there's so much good and all starts with their head coach and like Sean Payton, hall of Famer offensive genius. He'll make it work somehow. So that's why I have faith in this team. I know it's going to be tough for people out there. But nine and a half, to me that's good value on a team that have a ten and a half win. So you know, that's, that's a really nice bet for me right now.
- [39:13]
Simon Hunter
Harbaugh and Peyton like they're doing the same thing, right?
- [39:17]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [39:17]
Simon Hunter
They've got great defenses. They're trying to figure out ways to make the game a little bit easier for their quarterback. They're going to go about it in different ways. Right. Payton's going to be more creative. He's going to think about more of the short passing game. He's going to try to take advantage of what Bonix is really good at. Harbaugh is just going to try to run the ball and not put it all on Herbert's shoulders. Let's not discount the other coach in this division. There are three super bowl winning coaches in this division. Jim Harbaugh is the only one who is not a Super bowl winning coach. Pete Carroll is the new coach of the Las Vegas Raiders. 15 to 1 to win the division, 50 to 1 to win the conference, 100 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Six and a half is the win total. I'm curious. I will tell you right now. When I made my list of favorite division bets, I'm not going to tell you where the Raiders over win total was, but it's on the list. Let me give you, before I ask your opinion, let me give you a stat. I looked this up and I was stunned. In his career with the Patriots, the Seahawks and the New York jets, how many times Simon has Pete Carroll had fewer than seven wins? And remember, when you take on a new team, whether it's the jets, the Patriots or the Seahawks, you're generally taking over a shitty team. You're in a bad situation. So three times he's taken over a new team, how many times in his career, any season has he won fewer than seven games?
- [41:11]
Chad Millman
I mean that, that jets and Patriot errors a little before my time. I know he obviously coached there and I know that that beast Quake was a seven and nine season. So like he gets, it feels he gets seven, nine a lot. So I don't know, probably less than three times.
- [41:28]
Simon Hunter
Once.
- [41:28]
Chad Millman
Once. There you go.
- [41:30]
Simon Hunter
His first season has a head coach with the New York Jets, 1994. And by the way, before your time. Of course not before my time. When I was a young reporter for Sports Illustrated, I had to go interview Pete Carroll at Foxborough when he was coaching the Patriots. And you know, he's so hippie, dippy, kind of Thing. Even though he's super intense and competitive, we're sitting there and I'm sitting with him, and, you know, there's a very famous author named Dan Millman who has written these books that are sort of spiritual in nature and about improvement and finding your Zen. He just wanted to talk to me about Dan Millman. He's like, you know Dan Millman? I'm like, I don't know him. He goes, let me tell you about Dan Millman. And that's what we end up talking about the entire time I interviewed him. Simon. One season with less than seven wins in 1994, 31 years ago, you were four years old.
- [42:39]
Chad Millman
I didn't exist.
- [42:41]
Simon Hunter
You. What do you mean you didn't exist?
- [42:43]
Chad Millman
39 years ago.
- [42:45]
Simon Hunter
31 years ago.
- [42:46]
Chad Millman
Oh, oh, 31. Yeah.
- [42:48]
Simon Hunter
By the way, I got a funny story to tell you. I'm not going to tell the whole story because I want to save it for when we talk about the NFC east, because I hung out with some guys here in West Hartford the other night who are massive Eagles fans, and they were. They listened to the show, and we're standing in the kitchen hanging out for a minute, and one of the. One of the guys says to me, yeah, I love. I love the way you guys broke down the. The Eagles and the Chiefs, Super Bowl. That younger guy on your show, I'm like, younger guy? That's. That's how we're framing this whole thing, is the younger guy, he's just stating facts.
- [43:35]
Chad Millman
Chad, when I look at this Raiders team, you looked at me like I was a crazy person. I said they were my seventh team in the playoffs, and I got where you're coming from, because it's hard to hear Raiders playoffs in any sense.
- [43:48]
Simon Hunter
I'm totally with you, by the way.
- [43:50]
Chad Millman
Right, right. Right now, like, now that you've, like, looked into a little bit more, you see where I'm coming from, where it's like, can they thread that needle? And that's gonna be the hardest part, is, like, we just talked. The Chargers in Denver are so talented. All four of these teams are on making the playoffs. Someone's got to be the odd man out. And that's why I'm going. That's why I went with the Chargers. And it really is just about value. And that's. At the end of the day, that's where we're trying. We talk about all the time. There's always that team that goes from worse to first or to a playoff team. And last year we had it with Washington and You could say we had it with Denver. Hell, in this division, like, you know, these teams had just a very low view by the public and not on people's radar. I feel like the Raiders going to start popping on people's radar here in the next couple of weeks. I feel that's why I wanted to get ahead of it weeks ago when I gave them out as a playoff team because they're a team that people kind of forget that it's just a whole different regime there and that yes, they're secondary, you could argue is the worst in football. I cannot fight you on that because I've, I've dove into it too and they're, they're, they're. Their Raiders defense could have major issues. But when you break down this offense with Genti, with the fact that, you know, they're not the offense line is not terrible. That obviously needs a little bit of improvement. But you know, between Gentian Bowers and Chip Kelly, I love that, I love that they have an offensive guy that's going knows how to get this best player as the ball. So Gino Smith, you know, I told you I was saving this for the season long. He's a different, totally different player in dome games. He's way above.500 is against the spread. It's like above, you know, 700% hit rate against a spread in indoor dome games. So it's like type of scenario where he's always outperformed what bookmakers have projected of him, indoor games and the general public. So I, I already love that coming in where it's like, okay, he spent his whole career in outdoor stadiums. Now he's in inside in a dome game. And you know, sure, he could get some tough weather games. I know at the end of the season, you know, they are at Philly and they're at Houston. I think Houston's indoor actually. But it, it, there's just a bunch of things that line up for them that they're always going to be in these preferable weather conditions for this type of offense. They're going running or so 151 division odds. Chad, I bet it like this. This opened at 17:1. It's been bet down to 15:1. It's, it's too, too big. To me this is a team that could shock the world just because of all the veteran presence they have. And you just talk about Pete Carroll like that to me is such a game changer that this guy, the players love to play for him. He wills these guys get the best out of them and I Just can't see them slipping below that. So yeah, another favorite win total for me. Division wise, six and a half. I. I love even more. Now you hit me at that stat about Pete Carroll. Like that just lines up for my projection of this team being a whole new identity. And it all really starts with Geno. But obviously I don't think people get this kid Genty. He could be an absolute game wrecker. Like if he is what we are projecting to be, which is Saquon light like that type of built, right. He's all thighs. Like people don't realize Saquon Barkley is like he plays at 240, 240 of just muscle. Like I'm severely overweight. If you've met me, I'm probably 40 pounds heavier than that. I couldn't imagine being 240 of muscle, you know, running around like he is. And that's what Genti is. Genti is a little guy who's thick. He's like 230, 225 playing weight and it's all in his thighs. Like I just love the way he's built the NFL. And this is the exact type of scenario we want, right? It's the Ezekiel Elliott when he first came in. You want those first four years with these high rookie draft picks of just excellence, right? He's still young enough to run on that weight. So yeah, long winded answer, Chad. I think you can tell hyped up by him about this Raiders team, but it just feels like it's all lined up for them to be the sleeper of the AFC this season. And six and a half just disrespectful line to this team. But I think again because it's their division, the general public is just not buying in on. But you, you knocked out the park. I got him at eight and a half wins. So this is my biggest discrepancy so far. We've done on the show two wins lower than they should be. I love this number for this Raiders team.
- [47:55]
Simon Hunter
It's. It's the division, but it's also public perception. This is, this is a public perception game, right? And I see looking at the schedule, three better than 5050 games. Titans, Giants, Browns, all at home. I see two 50, 50 games both at home. Jags and Bears. I think Week 5 at the Colts is a wild card at this point. We will see but it could be by the time they're playing the Colts, they are a significantly better team than the Colts are. That could be six wins right there. They are three Point Dogs in week one at New England. That'll be a fascinating game. Right? So seven games right there where you can feel very good to 50, 50 better than even maybe chance they could win. And then this becomes a question. Can Pete Carroll, can Geno Smith, can they be savvy enough to pull off an upset as they often are able to do in the division at home against the Broncos, against the Chargers against the Chiefs. So if we were to recap here, my favorite division bet from this division, Raiders over six and a half. Full stop. That's it. Raiders over six and a half.
- [49:21]
Chad Millman
I don't hate it.
- [49:24]
Simon Hunter
Which do you like? What's yours then? Is it Raiders over six and a half? Is it Raiders?
- [49:29]
Chad Millman
I'm gonna go with my, my biggest event investment. My personal money is no doubt the Chiefs divisional odds. Like I, I've just been hitting that one pretty heavy. But, but win total wise. Yeah, it's not close. Raiders for this division is my biggest one. Second is Denver obviously really love that number as well. And then the Chiefs, I just, every year I'm betting it. The only fear is they're going to have a 10, 7 year. Like I don't know if it's gonna be this year or they'll, you know, 11 and 6 eventually their, their division is going to catch them in these games. Because last year was just, we talked about it was just so flukey in the one score games, you know, everything went right. Even like going back to that Bengals game, you know, Joe Burrow had the ball with the lead with about three minutes to go on a third and seven and didn't read a hot read and took a sack where it's like that game was lined up perfectly on the win. I think it was 4th and 20. They got a pass interference to get them into field goal range for the Chiefs to win. Like if you go back to last year, they had so many of these weird games they stole. So they're just. I did bet their win total, but of those three, it's the third one. It's. I like Raiders. First Denver than the Chiefs and then once again nothing. Nothing for me on this Chargers team. I assume the same for you, Chad.
- [50:39]
Simon Hunter
Yep. Zero couldn't do it. My, my list was Raiders over six and a half, Chiefs division, but parlaying it and then Broncos division. Even though it's much lower than it's been, it's still better to me than what you're getting with the chargers. But Raiders 6 and a half was my favorite quarter.
- [51:03]
Chad Millman
All right, just sprinkle a little 15 to 1 Raiders just for the show. Throw a little bit. It could be fun to end the season.
- [51:11]
Simon Hunter
I love it. I'm in. I'm all in. Simon. Listen, the Favorites will return. Let me recap, let me recap. We just did it though. Raiders over six and a half. Chiefs divisional odds for Simon. Broncos divisional odds for both of us. Although it's less value. Raiders 15 to 1 to win the conference. All right, the Favorites will return with our next episode Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page. When we talk NFC west, that's a barn burner of a con of a division. We got a lot of controversy there. I know me and Simon are going to be on different sides of two of the top teams. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback as a gift. Till next time. Love you.
- [52:07]
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- [53:03]
Colin Cowherd
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- [53:44]
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- [53:54]
Chad Millman
Lot of work to do.
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Chad Millman
This ship Collected Monsters.
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- [54:14]
Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast.