Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "The Favorites: AFC West Betting Preview"

Release Date: August 6, 2025
Host: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter
Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Episode Overview

In this episode of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd," hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve into an in-depth betting preview of the AFC West division. They analyze each team’s prospects for the upcoming NFL season, discussing odds, player performances, coaching strategies, and potential outcomes. The conversation is rich with expert insights, personal anecdotes, and strategic betting advice, making it a valuable resource for football fans and sports bettors alike.

Team Analysis

Kansas City Chiefs

Odds and Betting Overview:
The Chiefs head the AFC West with strong division odds of -120, and they hold conference and Super Bowl odds at +325 and +850, respectively. These odds have recently improved from +750 for the Super Bowl win total of 11½ wins.

Key Points:

• Offensive Line Improvements: The Chiefs addressed their previous season's left tackle issues by drafting Josh Simmons from Ohio State and signing Jaylen Moore from the 49ers. Simmons has emerged as the frontrunner, demonstrating strong performance in practice against defensive stalwarts like Chris Jones. [Timestamp: 03:03]

• Receiver Concerns: Despite Rasheed Rice's dominance, the team faces potential suspensions and injuries to key receivers such as Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, which could impact their offensive dynamics. [Timestamp: 10:30]

• Mahomes’ Consistency: Patrick Mahomes continues to be a reliable cornerstone for the team. Chad emphasizes Mahomes' ability to execute in high-pressure situations, maintaining his status as a perennial Super Bowl contender. “Mahomes it's simple. We just go by the book.” [Timestamp: 11:06]

Quote:
"My favorite thing is just Bears media where I saw a clip of a Bears guy saying how Caleb's regressed and it was him taking a snap under center..." – Chad Millman [Timestamp: 03:29]

Betting Strategy:
Chad prefers betting on the Chiefs’ division odds due to their strong leadership and consistent performance. He advises focusing on matchups where the Chiefs are favored, such as against the Rams or Eagles, rather than taking on the higher-risk Super Bowl bets.

Los Angeles Chargers

Odds and Betting Overview:
The Chargers are positioned at +300 to win the AFC West, with conference and Super Bowl odds at +11:1 and 25:1, respectively. Their projected win total stands at nine and a half.

Key Points:

• Defensive Strengths: The Chargers boast a robust defense, featuring standout players like Mai Beckton and Rashawn Slater. Their defensive line remains a critical asset, solidifying their position within the division. [Timestamp: 20:23]

• Offensive Line and Running Game: While the Chargers have strengthened their offensive line, concerns remain about their receiving corps. However, their commitment to a strong running game under Greg Roman's coordination provides balance and reduces dependence on the passing game.

• Justin Herbert’s Performance: Justin Herbert has been a point of contention, with Chad criticizing his performance in high-stakes games. Herbert's regular-season stats remain impressive, but playoff performances have been inconsistent. [Timestamp: 17:13]

Quote:
"If people have different allegiances, like these different media members don't like Asians, so they don't like these players. There's different little things like, that people need to be aware of." – Chad Millman [Timestamp: 04:57]

Betting Strategy:
Chad remains cautious about the Chargers’ offensive inconsistencies, suggesting that bettors might prefer to take the division odds or explore parlays that include other strong AFC teams like the Bills. Despite his reservations, the Chargers' defensive prowess makes them a reliable pick for those seeking balanced betting options.

Denver Broncos

Odds and Betting Overview:
The Broncos are seeded at +325 to win the AFC West, with conference and Super Bowl odds at 15:1 and 30:1, respectively. Their win total projection is nine and a half.

Key Points:

• Coaching and Defense: Under the leadership of Sean Payton and head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Broncos have revamped their defense, ranking first in points allowed and fifth in EPA. Their defensive strategies are expected to mitigate offensive challenges, especially with the addition of players like Dre Greenlaw and high draft picks like John Day Baron.

• Quarterback Performance: Bo Nix is the focal point of Denver's offensive strategy. Chad expresses cautious optimism, noting that while Payton’s coaching can elevate Nix’s performance, the team’s success heavily relies on his ability to execute against elite quarterbacks in the playoffs. [Timestamp: 26:18]

• Schedule Challenges: The Broncos face a tough schedule with three consecutive divisional games at the start, including a high-stakes match in Brazil against the Chiefs. These early challenges could set the tone for their season. [Timestamp: 26:53]

Quote:
"It's going to be tough for people out there. But nine and a half, to me that's good value on a team that have a ten and a half win." – Chad Millman [Timestamp: 35:00]

Betting Strategy:
Simon favors betting on the Broncos' win total, projecting them to achieve nine wins, which aligns with his analysis that their strong defense and coaching will drive their success. While the division odds had previously offered significant value, recent movements have reduced their attractiveness, leading to a preference for the win total bets instead.

Las Vegas Raiders

Odds and Betting Overview:
The Raiders come in at +15:1 to win the AFC West, with conference and Super Bowl odds at 50:1 and 100:1, respectively. Their projected win total is six and a half.

Key Points:

• Offensive Enhancements: With Geno Smith at quarterback and the addition of offensive coordinators like Chip Kelly, the Raiders have revamped their offensive strategy. Their focus on a strong running game, led by acquisitions like Amariian Hampton, positions them as potential sleeper contenders in the AFC.

• Defensive Improvements: The Raiders have bolstered their defense with significant signings, including Patrick Certain and Zach Allen, aiming to create a balanced and formidable team. This dual focus on offense and defense increases their potential to upset higher-ranked teams.

• Public Perception and Media Influence: Simon discusses how media hype, fueled by pundits like Nick Wright and Colin Cowherd, has artificially inflated the Raiders' odds. Despite this, both hosts agree that the Raiders offer solid value at 15:1 and six and a half wins, presenting an opportunity for bettors willing to take on long-shot bets.

Quote:
"Simon. Listen, the Favorites will return. Let me recap, let me recap. We just did it though. Raiders over six and a half." – Simon Hunter [Timestamp: 49:28]

Betting Strategy:
Chad and Simon both advocate for betting on the Raiders' win total of six and a half, considering it undervalued given their potential to outperform expectations. They highlight the Raiders’ strategic coaching and player acquisitions as key factors that could lead to a surprise breakout season.

Quarterback Comparisons

Patrick Mahomes vs. Kyler Murray:

The hosts draw parallels between Mahomes and Kyler Murray, noting Mahomes’ sustained excellence since his first full season in 2018 compared to Murray’s ongoing quest for peak performance despite injuries. Chad highlights Mahomes’ statistical consistency and ability to perform in clutch moments as hallmarks of his dominance. In contrast, Murray is portrayed as a talented but inconsistent quarterback still seeking his breakout moment.

Quote:
"It's frightening how good this guy is." – Simon Hunter on Patrick Mahomes [Timestamp: 19:04]

Betting Strategies and Insights

• Parlays: Chad suggests using the Chiefs and Bills in two-team parlays for those looking to maximize their bets without overextending. For larger bets, he recommends limiting parlays to two or three teams to manage risk effectively. [Timestamp: 15:05]

• Win Totals: Both hosts emphasize the importance of considering win totals based on team strengths and schedules. Simon prefers betting on the Raiders to exceed six wins, while Chad leans towards the Broncos for their nine-win projection.

• Public Perception: The duo discusses how media narratives and public opinion can influence betting odds, often leading to discrepancies between actual team potential and bookmaker lines. They advise bettors to look beyond the hype and analyze team fundamentals.

Notable Quote:
"If you have a team that is a seven-point favorite, they have to win by more than seven for you to win your bet." – Simon Hunter [Timestamp: 06:12]

Concluding Remarks

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter wrap up the episode by reiterating their top betting picks within the AFC West:

• Raiders Over 6½ Wins: Both hosts highlight the Raiders as a valuable long-shot bet with potential for a strong season.
• Chiefs’ Division Odds: Chad remains heavily invested in the Chiefs’ prospects, citing their consistent performance and strong leadership.
• Broncos’ Win Total: Simon supports the Broncos’ nine-win projection, emphasizing their defensive strength and coaching.

They tease upcoming episodes, including an NFC West Preview, promising more in-depth analysis and betting strategies.

Final Quote:
"This is an iHeart podcast." – Chad Millman [Timestamp: 54:13]

Key Takeaways

• Chiefs remain the pinnacle of the AFC West with favorable odds and a stable core led by Patrick Mahomes.
• Chargers offer a balanced bet with their strong defense but face uncertainties in their offensive consistency.
• Broncos present a solid mid-tier bet, backed by their revamped defense and strategic coaching.
• Raiders are the standout sleeper picks, offering significant value for bettors willing to take on higher risk for potentially higher rewards.
• Betting Strategies should consider team fundamentals, coaching stability, and player performances while navigating media-influenced odds.

This comprehensive preview equips listeners with the necessary insights to make informed betting decisions for the upcoming NFL season within the competitive AFC West division.