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- [00:00]
Evan Abrams
You're listening to an iHeart podcast.
- [00:14]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [00:28]
Simon Hunter
Chad. What a magical week. The release of the schedule. It's one of my favorite weeks of the year for a football fan, Simon.
- [00:35]
Chad Millman
I know that over the weekend.
- [00:38]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [00:39]
Chad Millman
You had planned on playing in a poker tournament that began at 11pm on Mother's Day. On Mother's Day, which is fine. Like, you know, your mom was probably long past sleeping and you had done your duty as a son throughout the day to honor your mother. Did you play in the poker tournament? How did it go?
- [01:01]
Simon Hunter
It did. It was the final table. That's why I was at such a weird late hour and there was 10 of us. I unfortunately took eighth, but going in, I was a short stack and I basically, I'm a weird person with numbers chat, as you know. And seven four suited is my lucky favorite hand. I think I was the fourth blind in, so I was maybe two guys already been knocked out and then I was at this point the small blind. So I'm already invested and get the 74 suited, had to shove guy pocket tens and basically got very lucky on the river. I basically flopped trips and this guy rivers the 10. So no, it's fun. It's gambling.
- [01:42]
Chad Millman
No.
- [01:43]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, but it was just a classic B2 where as soon as I saw his hand and I got the trips on the flop, I go, well, this is a dead hand. I'm gonna lose this. There's no way. It never. You never want to flop it. Yeah, it's. It's something I love doing the off season and we'll see World Series of Poker. I'm getting the itch. I got 10k to burn. I might end up down in Vegas and playing in that tournament. We'll see.
- [02:04]
Chad Millman
So when you saw the river, like, what went like.
- [02:11]
Simon Hunter
I already grabbed my bag, Chad. I was already gone. I, yeah. Thanked everybody. As soon as I flopped it, I thanked everybody and grabbed my bag and yeah, so I was already walking off and it just. Especially at that time. So I think at this point it might have been just getting to midnight or just before. And I was like, all right, perfect. I'll get home just in time to get some. Some rest and hop on the pod.
- [02:35]
Chad Millman
I mean, you. Yeah, you were barely there. You were there for less than an hour then.
- [02:38]
Simon Hunter
Exactly, exactly. I spent more, more Time in the sportsbook, hanging out watching the games than I did actually playing in the tournament.
- [02:45]
Chad Millman
I will look. Speaking of sportsbook, we know that and we got a big show that we're going to get to, but there's some housekeeping that I want to clear off. Early this morning. We're recording this on Monday afternoon. Early this morning, we got the Eagles Cowboys opening night matchup. We have the Dallas Cowboys, seven point underdogs on the road against the super bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. The moneyline number is plus 2:40 for the Cowboys. This is germane to the show because the show is going to be a lot about underdogs and pricing and some of the trends that have been changing and it speaks to a lot of the work that we've talked about a couple times on the show throughout the year. But a lot of stuff I've been focusing on and how you've been thinking about it too. And Evan's going to be on to break it down for us. But before we dig more deeply into that intro immediately. Plus seven. I bet that. I bet the plus 240. I know you did too.
- [03:51]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's. That. That's just an insane opening number. But it's the respect that Philadelphia deserves and just the, the season that Dallas is coming off of. Right. So it's all public perception. We talk all the time about week one lines and Dak being disrespected in divisional game like he is in this spot. That, that's a nice number. Especially when you think about the fact that, you know, Kellenmore did leave. Like the Eagles are going to learn a new offense and this is week one and Jalen hurts in a new offense. So, um, pretty interesting that the fact that they, they hung this number the way they did and you know, I'm looking at, from the standpoint of what you are, it's, it's a big number. We're betting it really early. It is may, but me and Chad are taking a position because we expect this to what, go to five and a half, four and a half maybe perhaps by the night they kick off. So we want to take a position here and if it goes the other way, even better. Like I would love if we get to that night chat and we get an eight, eight and a half on this number because so many people are throwing their parlays and teasers starting their week off with the Eagles at this number. So, yeah, it's just a really fun opening number. Great opening night. I think it's the first time the Eagles have opened a season against the Cowboys at home since 2000. So we're talking about 25 years here. So pretty, pretty excited as an Eagles fan that opening night. I'll definitely be there Thursday night. No work for Simon. I'll be out drinking, celebrating what happened last year and watching this game.
- [05:12]
Chad Millman
Look, I think that what's really interesting about this is it's such a a indicator of recency bias.
- [05:21]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [05:22]
Chad Millman
Like obviously everyone is all hyped on the Eagles and everyone is looking at what happened with the Cowboys and they're forgetting that Dak Prescott is going to be back and that it's not like Dak Prescott is a bad quarterback.
- [05:35]
Simon Hunter
Right.
- [05:35]
Chad Millman
And it's not like this team won't be competitive and it's not like Micah Parsons won't be back. You know, the Cowboys had so many injuries last year on that defensive line. At some point they were playing almost nobody. And then Dak obviously was out for much of the year. So this just feels like way too big of a number. I know it's May, I know we're not getting overextended on the Cowboys as seven point underdogs on the road in the division, but geez, geez almighty. That is. That is a hefty, hefty price if you want to be betting on the Eagles. Or a really nice discount if you want to bet on the Cowboys. I bet both. You can't get it in the action app yet, but I bet both the Cowboys plus seven and the Cowboys on the money line at plus 240. All right, this all leads in perfectly to what we're going to dive into today. And like I said, we've talked a lot on this show the last couple years when we discuss every single week in this past NFL off season the decline of the underdog for betters, especially in the NFL. Although across multiple sports. And this has been especially true since the repeal of the Professional Amateur Sports Protection act, aka PASPA, in 2018. It's also been a real business story and I've mentioned this a few times on the show the past six to nine months. DraftKings FanDuel the two biggest operators, the biggest percentage of market share amongst all online sports books have reported in Q4 and in Q1 now that their earnings were less than expected, their revenue was less than expected because of continued customer friendly outcomes. Last fall was an incredible year for favorites to continue to cover, which is bad for operators. March Madness it was all shock, right? The number one seeds all went through to the final four. That was Bad for business, for the operators. We've seen a lot of those customer friendly outcomes. What in the devil is going on to help us dive into the numbers, the trends, unpack how we can sort of think about this. Our statistical maven, a man who always shows his work. Action Network director of research and media, Evan Abrams. Welcome back, Evan.
- [08:13]
Evan Abrams
What's going on fellas? I mean truthfully, the only thing I got to say before we dive into this, the two biggest tournaments between like the NFL regular season and March Madness were just so slanted towards favorites that this was kind of predictable that this was going to happen. At least the conversation because the things that everyone bet on favorites were just crushing. And then Chad, you and I have talked about futures. I feel like forever feels like underdogs very rarely have been coming through when it comes to like actually winning titles. And the data is just crazy there when you talk about a taken like the team's under 10 to 1, etc. So conversation should be interesting.
- [08:47]
Chad Millman
So listen, I've mentioned that I'm working on a book a couple of times on the show. One of the things that I'm doing for the book is trying to figure out how to unpack what happened last year, not overreact to it and build something for the coming year that I can then track on a week to week basis and write about in the book. And a lot of my research the past few months, which has been really fun, has been what is the model that I might need to build. And a lot of what I've come to the conclusion about is that there is no super stat, there is no analysis that can be done that isn't already being done by 8,000 analysts who are thin slicing advanced metrics when it comes to the NFL. Everyone was looking at success rate, everyone's looking at epa, everyone's looking at, you know, explosiveness. If you really honestly, like one of the best models might be the luck rankings, knowing how they create it. And so and Simon and I talk about that every week, but pricing has become really interesting. We just talked about it with the Cowboys and the Eagles, right, the Cowboys, seven point dogs. That feels like an exorbitant price to pay if you want to bet on the Eagles. So it's becoming more and more interesting. One of the things I had asked Evan to do is to go through some pricing models based on the research we have available in BET labs. So I know Evan, you're going to sort of certainly talk about that today. But explain like as a thesis for this episode, what does the death of the underdog mean exactly?
- [10:33]
Evan Abrams
I just think so. I mean, Paspa May 14, 2018. Since that moment, I think we've seen a little bit of a shift. And I tried to do it in three simple bullets. So bullet one would be widespread legalization of sports betting beginning in late 2018, 2019, kind of changes the game a little bit. And that leads to underdogs starting off actually performing well early during this PASPA era of new legalization across many states in the U.S. so about two to three years, you see an increase in ATS win percentage for certain underdogs across, you know, some of the sports, the majority of one of them. So in the NFL, this also coincided with huge favorites and larger spreads, at least initially, we were seeing, you know, 17, a lot more of those bigger numbers. And then what I think we're actually seeing now, and I kind of call it the last, like two and a half years or so, is again, some of those larger spreads, but favorites starting to cover those bigger numbers. Juicier prices also tend to be vanishing. And I think that has something to do with the lines we're seeing out there, some of the margins between the lines, the vague things of that nature. But I think it's happening both with single games and it's also happening with some of the whole percentages in the futures market. So to me, that is a 1, 2, 3 of what we're kind of labeling like the death of the underdog, which is a very blanket statement when you consider. I like looking at the major six sports. So you say, at least in the US when it's, you know, the four major plus the two college. Because I feel like that, at least from an American point of view, gets the most action. So that's at least where I started the experiment here. But to me, those are your pillars kind of walking into this, guys.
- [12:13]
Chad Millman
Simon, do you agree or disagree with my take that it's begetting. It's that it's getting harder and harder to find a statistical, analytical edge when creating power ratings, and that more and more we should be leaning into price.
- [12:34]
Simon Hunter
There's a lot of ways to go about this, Chad. I would say that if someone has an edge, you'd never know. Even if I have an edge, I would never tell you, brother, you know I love you to death. It's just the nature of the.
- [12:43]
Chad Millman
You're my bff.
- [12:45]
Simon Hunter
I know. And that's just the way it is, bro. It's. It's. It's a different world where like, guys, guys have had edges for 30, 40 years. You could say they tinker with it and they're always updating it, but they would never tell you. And they. And you can, you know, give as many drinks as you want and you could be like, well, this guy's full of. But then at the end of the day, this guy's a long term winning better and clearly, you know, something is doing something right. But I mean, just at the bases we're getting to though, it's. It does feel like we have, we've. We're in a weird run here, Chad, like, of what you're just talking about of like these favorites. I mean, hell, the best underdog bet of the year was a dude named Bobby from Chicago that became the Pope. Like it's a weird year. It's a weird year. So, you know, it's back to back years of this of like, you know, we love long shots, we love these. You didn't see it coming. And you know, the one year I feel like we really had a chance at that was that Bengals run, right, With Joe Burrow. Like Evan kept telling us like 150 to 1. I knew some guys sitting on those tickets that would have really shocked the system. But it didn't happen, right? It was like Matt Stafford, the Rams team, they end up. Did they end up winning it? And you know, like every, every year comes on here, he talks about these favorites in the NFL. Like Chad's making this bet every year, you know, the top 20 or top, you know, 25 to 1 teams and, and below. And Chad's been winning on it because it's been pretty chalky in the NFL. So Evan, diving in the numbers here. I'm really interested to hear all of it because we know, because we're better, Chad. So we've lost the money. So we, we're basically about to get fed our medicine about what we need to adjust and what it's been like the last couple years here in all the major sports.
- [14:25]
Chad Millman
Right. So Evan, layout, you know, we've got. And you and I discussed this. This was core to some of the investigation that I asked you to start thinking about a couple of months ago. Lay out. And there's three sort of basic examples is the best way to describe it of you immediately recognize where you think the market will be off. And those are the ones that you attack. These archetypes of underdogs, mispriced circumstances that lead you to immediately want to bet those teams that have been causing problems the last couple of years. Give us the Three best examples start with number one.
- [15:16]
Evan Abrams
Okay, so system one is simply just bad underdogs off of a bad loss. And I think when going through all three of these, these are just normal situations that most betters historically have just kind of looked for. Do they blindly bet them? Of course not. But usually over they end up turning an roi. And historically yes, but recently no. So let me start here. Bad dogs off of a bad law. So this is team with a win percentage under 40% coming off a loss of 20 plus points. Pretty simple. So since 2003 and that is going to use that number that year a lot. That is the Bet Labs database and in its entirety. So since 2003, betting those spots has a positive ROI of just under 7% blanket. But last two seasons, 21, 24 and 1 ATS minus 10.3% ROI. It is the worst two year stretch that we've tracked in that span. So works long term, hasn't worked recently. So let me just keep rolling here because I'll do two more and then we can kind of react. Why?
- [16:15]
Chad Millman
Don't want to. I don't.
- [16:16]
Evan Abrams
You want to react? You want to go.
- [16:18]
Chad Millman
I. I don't think I can hold my time.
- [16:20]
Evan Abrams
Okay.
- [16:20]
Chad Millman
So that's fucking insane because that's like that is the A1 example that anybody who has done this for any length of time looks at. Give me the bad team coming off a bad loss. It's going to be a great discount on price.
- [16:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Get a free three points.
- [16:45]
Chad Millman
Yes. Like that has been. That has been a money maker to Evan's point. 7% over the past 20 plus seasons, but negative 10% ROI the past two years. Simon, did you realize it was that steep of a drop off?
- [17:07]
Simon Hunter
I knew just because early in the year I remember at one point, Chad, we were like one of 25 betting dogs.
- [17:13]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I remember going through it in the show.
- [17:14]
Simon Hunter
Right, and you went through and I did as well. And like looking at the dogs we were taking that really honestly saved me a ton of money going forward last season because it wasn't like there was a bunch of lines. Even the Panthers, eventually we swore them off and we had a nice break where it was like, I don't care. They're giving us four points here that they shouldn't be giving us that. You know, the Panthers are just getting that bump. And what Evan here is talking about is really alarming because it just factors into these last two seasons how bad the quarterback play has been to me on these really bad teams. And I think that's A lot. What I dove into this season, off season is just the really poor quarterback play and the shortened fields and how much. It really is that simple. When you dive into it, how big of a key it is where these teams have confidence in their quarterback to go for it on 4th and 2, 4th and 3, and there's other teams who just simply punt it on 4th and 3, 4th and 2. So what Evan here is really making that stand out where it's like, you know, some of these teams usually coming off a bad loss, the team rallies the next game. And I feel like that's what Evan's talking about, historical data, the last two years. I mean, these teams just lay down and die. And like, that's the craziest part. It's like you're getting these free points and it's not mattering in the books. Feels like what I've been saying here is the books are getting caught, laying these really bad numbers, and the public's taking advantage of it.
- [18:34]
Chad Millman
Is two years enough of a sample size?
- [18:40]
Evan Abrams
I don't think so. I think we've built these systems models, like different things that trigger points, let's call them for you, Chad, just to kind of like look at, to start the season. I think we're in wait and see mode. Like if this system, which is 7%, starts off, you know, 2 and 8, you know, I think we might have an understanding of something coming up. But I think this is a very critical year to kind of seeing what these rule changes and even some of these bad quarterback play, which I think Simon nailed it, what that impact has. I think one other thing that's important here, these are all based off the closing lines. So, like in this type of system, we're talking about a bad dog off a bad loss. Like, you're assuming that line is going to close higher than it open because everyone's going to want the other team. So, you know, these, these teams losing in that sense. We were talking about the closing line, which is probably a better line, is also pretty shocking to me, to be honest.
- [19:31]
Simon Hunter
And Chad, it feels like Evan here is talking about how it's. It's not enough data yet, but it's also. He's telling people that you just can't keep doing it the same old way. This. There is. There could be something happening here that you need to pay attention to and that he's diving in numbers here. And that's, that's what I find so interesting about it, where it's like, you know, there's always times too with if I have a number on a dog that I like and the luck rankings back it up because it's a team that's been unlucky catching a big number. We always talk, Chad. I blindly bet those numbers. Now I am going to take a second and think about the quarterback matchup, the coaching style, and little things that I would never. When I'm. I'm in a certain situation where I just blindly bet a big dog. So what Evan's saying here, I am going to take into account because that is pretty alarming data that it's changed that much. And it's really coinciding with a lot of these rule changes the NFL has been doing these last couple seasons.
- [20:23]
Chad Millman
All right, Evan, number two.
- [20:25]
Evan Abrams
Okay, so this is fading. The bounce back. Bad team versus good team who is off of a big loss. So again, team with a win percentage under 40% playing a team with a 60 win percentage coming off a loss of two touchdowns or more. So basically you're fading the inevitable bounce back which most people would normally try to buy into. So since 2003, betting these spots, positive ROI of just over 6%. So relatively similar to the one we just talked about, which was about 7%. Now, last four seasons in this spot, 20 and 25 against the spread, a negative 14.7 ROI. Also the worst stretch in the last 22, 23 years. So again, kind of talking about a very similar scenario where, I mean, that bad team, which you would look at probably getting a larger number on the close versus the open, still not covering that number nearly at all. And last four seasons, even bigger samples. You're kind of eating into that Paspa era as well.
- [21:27]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's fascinating because that's another one that has almost been an autoplay for years. Right. Like, you immediately, like, identify that because we think we're smarter than the average Joe. We would bet that because the Joe is going to come in and bet the favorite no matter what. And now all of a sudden, and it's not just two years, four years, that's like, almost insidious, you know, if you're not paying enough attention, you keep doing it, not really realizing that it's been eating away over a longer period of time. That's. That's a scary one.
- [22:08]
Evan Abrams
I think we're hitting a curve here. Like, it's almost like we're trying to figure out if these are going to extend or if there's going to be some sort of, like, buyback in the market to the mean where we kind of go back to what we were. I don't know if that's going to happen. So, Simon, what's your thoughts?
- [22:22]
Simon Hunter
Evans maybe want to hibernate. I want to disappear now for like three years and I'll come back and just time the market right and just be rolling and all these dogs. Because like Evan's saying here, it's going to hit a breaking point, right? The books, they got the same numbers, they have the same data. They will eventually adjust. Their mottos were adjust. But I keep telling Chad, we're in a weird time period where these. This switch up is happening with the favorites and we're breaking into AI models, which is a whole another conversation. But we're in a really weird period here of like, okay, favorites are doing really well. The public is, you know, obviously doing really well. The books are trying to go against it, but the books are spending an absurd amount of money right now trying to get ahead of AI models, especially in the sports betting world. So it's very. It's a very unique time period in sports betting where a lot of moving parts are happening. Evan here is just making me even doubt my model even more because it's like, what Evan. What Evan's saying here is like, I keep thinking I'm getting free points and I'm not. They're kind of suckering us in. And it's been that way the last couple years. And I definitely have not taking position on certain spots, right? Bounce back spots, quote, unquote. But there are certain teams that it's like, okay, if Lamar has a bad loss and he's in a bounceback spot and you're getting the rare opportunity of him as a dog, those are like, okay, that's a smash spot. That's a spot you really want to lean into, despite if your numbers are against it. You want to do what Evan's talking about here, which is like, you throw all the data out and you just. Historical data tells you, good quarterback, good team after a bad loss, you expect them to bounce back. Bad quarterback on a bad team. Evanstonia, they don't. They're not bouncing back right now. So that's something I don't have to check on me and Chad during the regular season. Just keep in the back of our mind where it's like, you can't just blindly bet these bad quarterbacks, man. They're just not doing it. The whatever's going on in college, the next step to the NFL is not translating like it was in the 2010s. Clearly.
- [24:12]
Chad Millman
I feel like there's been A beacon that has been buried in the dirt, and somehow we've been missing it and playing by the old rules, and it's slowly, slowly been changing. And last year, maybe all three of them, including the next one Evan is going to talk about, of these sort of classic underdog play spots, all converged to conspire against us. That's made us unpack everything in an entirely different way. Whereas, like, maybe there's been spots where one or two of them, but not on a consecutive week. So it made us keep thinking. And last year, it just felt like every single week, and it's made it. Look at these now. Okay, but this is good for you.
- [24:53]
Simon Hunter
This is good for us in a lot of ways, Chad, because it does make you look at yourself and your models and all different things in a different perspective. And, like, I'll never forget that year the Eagles won that super bowl with Doug Peterson and the RPOs. That really messed with my motto with a lot of offenses that were just super simple and basic, but the RPO was really working really well, and they brought into the league and the same thing with a couple teams in that year, started going for it more often on fourth down. So it's like, you know, you're always adjusting. What we're talking about here is, like, I don't want to over adjust. Like, you're saying we don't want to over adjust because of these last couple years and these anomalies. But, like, you're saying we need to really take into account here that these dogs just ain't hitting like they used to. And there's. There's a bigger point here that we need to dive into that. We can't just say, well, it'll come back around. It's like, well, maybe it won't. This could be a big change in NFL, and we need to adjust to it. So, yeah, I'm really glad we're doing this because it's. It's something I've already dived into a little bit. But hearing these raw numbers from Evan, it's. It's pretty alarming.
- [25:50]
Chad Millman
The clarity is. Is pretty astonishing. All right, Evan, what's number three?
- [25:54]
Evan Abrams
Yeah, Death of the Underdog. I feel like almost is just a tale of caution at the moment, but, yeah, here's system three. So. And this is almost as much of a staple as the first one. It's basically just betting good teams off of huge losses. So we just talked about the bad team and good team. Forget all that. This is just team with a win percentage over 60% coming off a loss of 20 plus points, which is basically doesn't happen a ton. But this is, you know, the bounce back spot, the classic. So since 2003, betting these spots has a positive ROI of just under 16%. And since 2020 it is 13 and 16 ATS and it was 0 and 4 ATS last season. So a literal reversal of fortune. And I think it. This is literally the worst teams in the NFL basically on the other side of this potentially and you wanting to back them. And I think you're kind of hitting a bit of a brick Wall. But the 13 and 16 since 2020, when you have a 16% ROI since 2003 and that 16% still now, including that 13 and 16, just to show how great it was beforehand. It's just a change of times. It's crazy.
- [27:00]
Chad Millman
That is a crazy number. Like the sample size obviously isn't that big. You know, 29 games, just not that big. It's not a big enough number to make you want to change how you think about these things philosophically. But oh, and four last year, like Simon, I guarantee we may we went.04 on those bets. Right. Like we can go back and look, but like I feel like we are seeing all of the losses that we had last year just from these three systems that Evan is talking about.
- [27:34]
Simon Hunter
Definitely a Carolina loss, but I told you like I went back through and I still can't believe how we avoided Tennessee. It feels like a couple of those two is the Tennessee games. But yeah, it's. Man, that. That's astonishing though. I mean, is that the first time, Evan, you could find the historical data that there was a year that it just simply went om4 or om5?
- [27:53]
Evan Abrams
I could check, but there's just no chance you had that type of percentage year to year and you would have no ATS wins. So I'm pretty sure it is the first at least in that spot. I think the scary thing is if I took that 60% so teams with a win percentage over 60% and instead of a 20 point loss, I took it down to 14 or I took it to nine, which was like more than one possession. I think you'd see similar data in terms of just the evening out of the numbers and it not being so easy to back those teams. So I just think there's more, more into the handicap than maybe there was a little while ago. I think there's just a lot going on and also a lot more money in the market. I think legalization has brought in a tons of new types of betters that I think might be adjusting this a little bit. That's at least my opinion.
- [28:37]
Chad Millman
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- [30:11]
Evan Abrams
Yeah, I mean I wrote down these three nuggets, pillars, however you want to call them, but I think it's more of a dynamic pricing. Like the odds are getting worse quicker and I think the adjustment on players is already kind of being baked in. Like we've seen some crazy stuff in the NBA where a guy gets ruled out and like the other players props aren't moving like they used to because that's something that used to be a bit of an edge which is, you know, okay, we're making the assumption on A, so let's get ahead of B. And that's also even terms of like news betting is kind of being already baked in as they're making the assumptions that we are so and I also think a little bit of the a lot of these books aren't giving you unders, they're not giving you no's, which is kind of bringing about like the exchanges and the the different companies are kind of giving you both options that are getting more popular. But I think that's part of the problem is you know you're betting into minus 122, 125, 128 and that just never was the case.
- [31:08]
Chad Millman
What about on NFL spreads? When I think about pricing, I'm not just thinking about, you know, what's the juice. I'm thinking about, is it at six and a half? Is it at seven? Is it at seven and a half? Do we think that they are just getting better at creating lines that are harder to bet into?
- [31:33]
Evan Abrams
I think probably so. I mean, I think, you know, the NFL is a, is a interesting beast just because of the amount of popularity and attention and money that goes into it versus all the other sports. So I don't know if it's necessarily like, you know, would you have gotten seven and a half or eight a little while ago? While now maybe it's, you know, seven or six and a half. I don't know. I'm curious Simon's opinion here because I feel like when we bet into this every week, the favorites still get all the money. The favorites still get the late action, except now the favorites are covering. When we used to feel like the smart guys and the dog used to get the back door or get the COVID in those situations, it's just not happening anymore.
- [32:11]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I've definitely have learned, especially since the legalization not to let lines scare me off. That to me are so stupid. Don't make any sense. I just have to live and die and take it. And the biggest one that jumped out to me will always be that Washington commander's line against Detroit. That line touched 10 in that playoff game and this is with Detroit with all those injuries to their defense and that stinks where I was going to just hammer that number non stop. I was like, this is a really bad number. But I got scared off because of the year we were just coming off with all the favorites and how the books kept putting these bad lines. And that was one of those games where I luckily just lean into my model and really trust it. And I think even by Thursday's show you could hear my confidence on this show really build. But I didn't have that Sunday night, Monday, like I really didn't where it's like, what am I missing here? Why is this 10? How are the commanders 10 points worse than this Detroit team that all those injuries to their defense and you know, that's. That was one of those situations where normal year dogs are hitting well. For me, that would have been a big six figure game. Like I really would have gone heavy on that game knowing my model backs it up. The old timers I talked to are telling me this is a great spot for this Washington team. Like, it all lined up with it and the data lined up. But just because you're coming off of, like, that's what's been so interesting to me that the books, you know, to me, they look like they're laying really, really interesting numbers and strong numbers where the public don't even think that way, right? Their, their mind of if they see seven and a half, they just tease it. They don't care that it's seven and a half. Where me and Chad see the seven and a half and our light, our eyes light up. We're getting a hook on a dog. We like at a really good number. And of course, we got slaughtered on those numbers. Like, we got killed on taking those good numbers that we think are good. But like, we're talking about here, the books, they're not going to lose forever. Like, that's why, like, I keep especially friends I have in my regular life, regular people, best year they've ever had. Some guys over 60%, some guys I know 70%, especially in their pick pools. Like, best year they ever had, taking these favorites. And I tell them all, get out. Retire. Just walk away. Like, this is. It just is not going to happen again. They're like, well, how do you know? And it's just what Evan's talking here with historical data that we've never seen it before. So, yeah, we could get caught here. It could because of the rule changes. But it is interesting when you're talking about. We keep having these games that Evan's talking about here where it's like, how do I not feel like we're getting free points here? And how do we not take it? Especially when you have a model back in it where it's like, this is off by four or five points. I mean, another one that jumps out to me is that the championship of the college football finals. You know, Notre Dame should have been a big underdog. What was it, Evan? Was it nine and a half?
- [34:49]
Evan Abrams
I think so. Something close to that. Something like eight.
- [34:52]
Simon Hunter
Some of the smartest guys I know bet for a living on college football, had that at three and a half, four. A fluky touchdown happened at the end of the game, and I think it landed on 10 or something like it didn't cover the number. Whatever it is, Notre Dame didn't cover these guys to a lot of Joe Public look like, right? That was an easy bet. Taking the superior team against the Notre Dame team that shouldn't have even been in that game where you got. They don't realize how lucky they got. How Models, historically long term, will always be right in those type of spots. So it's across all sports where it's like you're getting a ton of extra value on these dogs. And these bounces keep going the public way at the end of these games. And it's. We're trying to put, we're like, we're breaking it all down here today. We're trying to put numbers on it. There's so many of these games where it's just not going our way. And I, Chad, I talked to you about our regular season. It's like, how many weeks do we have two and three? I mean, we were two and one and how many weeks heading into that Sunday night show and we ended the week two and three. So it's like, are we terrible at this? Should I, should I retire? Do I just simply suck at sports betting or do I need to adjust my models and realize some of those games too are just bad bounces? So it's hard not to over adjust. But at the same time it's like, man, these last couple years with these favorites, Evan, like you're talking about here, man, it's, it's spooking the out of me. It really is. Or it's like week one and two, I got no problem betting these dogs. Like that historically has always been good for us. Even year, the year the favorites, it was still good for us, but after that, man, shit. Favorites in the public chat. Are we, are we switching up? Is this, are we gonna live our name, the favorites? Is this about to be the new show?
- [36:22]
Chad Millman
Well, that's, that's what I mean. Like the, the numbers. Every single time I step away from the show or like and I'm just in my head thinking about how this should go or looking at some of the bet labs data or building new models that are just based on when to bet, how lines move, those kinds of things. I start to feel good about where we are going to go next season. And then by the way, I'm seeing all of this new stuff that Evan is laying out for the first time right now as we're talking about it. So the fact that there has been a slow decline that last year popped, but we had not really recognized for some of our very safe, consistent plays that have gone against the public for years. That's alarming and that scares me about everything that I've been thinking about building for the past three months. So, yeah, I'm with you. I'm kind of freaking out right now and I might have to go Back to square one at this point. That's how I feel about it.
- [37:42]
Evan Abrams
The only thing I'll say is, the only thing I'll say is this, I think the most glaring stat. So we talk about ATS a lot just because that's the contest, that's the show. Like, that's kind of how this was built. But I think this is the one that kind of got me a little bit. So Moneyline regular season favorites were positive from an ROI perspective in 2023 and 2024. And that was actually the first time we had ever seen that happen in back to back years. I went back to about 2,000 in terms of, I went, I looked even further in terms of data. So the fact that and Moneyline favorites take so much to become positive because of, you know, one loss takes you back a lot in terms of the vig. So to me, back to back years of positivity on the Moneyline ROI perspective and favorites in the NFL. That is a bit of a me because I usually see, okay, a favorite covers here, a favorite covers there. But for that juice to turn positive was a, a little alarming to me. I like to bet underdogs on the money line and it was one of the worst years you could ever think of for that.
- [38:42]
Chad Millman
Feeling great that I got the Cowboys at plus 7 on the money line at plus 2. 4.
- [38:46]
Evan Abrams
Well, Hertz is going to, you know, tush push, first drive. We're going to all feel great. It's going to be fantastic.
- [38:51]
Chad Millman
All right. The back door, which we love game planning for, feels like it's been closing. What do the numbers tell us?
- [39:01]
Evan Abrams
Yeah, so underdogs trailing by 10 plus points at any point of the game covered at a 21% rate. Last season, the year prior it was 20%. So pretty consistent. That was the first time in over a decade we saw back to back years though of that low of a percentage. So in terms of where we're used to, a team falls behind like we've seen in the NBA what feels like a million times this postseason and ends up coming back and either wins the game or covers the game or some crazy statistic just isn't happening in the NFL to the degree I think we're used to now, it's probably the difference of about 5%, 4% depending on the average per season overall year to year. But when you talk about the last two years and the lack of comebacks, I think it's part of this story because I think that's what we're used to. We're used to those numbers being inflated and getting more inflated as the week goes by and then a majority of the time or a decent percentage of the time, them coming through the back door and it coming into the winning percentage of underdogs at the end of the season and at 20%, you're just not seeing that. So I think it's a part of the story.
- [40:15]
Chad Millman
Well, look, Simon, you just said something that is either hope or false hope, which is the books don't lose. They always make money, right? And so even like what we're talking about with DraftKings and FanDuel and their earnings calls and revenue reporting and those kinds of things and changing projections and outlooks, like is this a false hope that we're hanging our hat on that it's going to turn back around or is everybody going to have to recalibrate?
- [40:54]
Simon Hunter
Oh, man. Like Gavin said, this is a defining season in many ways, but I feel like it's defining decade in many ways. Right. This is going to be a slow burn for me. And you know, like I, I joke with you all the time, Chad. This isn't a job that I know guys, most guys that do this job eventually get burned out. They find something else and they go down a different path. Because sports betting is so hard and you have to consistently be tinkering and updating your model and you can't really get lazy and stuck in your ways. Like you're talking especially here. And you know, it's, it's not as simple as we simply just bet the dog, especially in those spots. But our hard, our hardest job, Chad, is we have to pick five games every week. So one or two of those games, we're going to bet it because we love the number, the model's backup, we love the spot. We have to start really challenging ourselves. Is this actually a good spot? Is this what we want to be doing where Evan's giving us these numbers here that's telling you that, you know, it's, it's kind of a favorites world and because of these rule changes, why wouldn't the league want to benefit the offenses? And that, that kind of me to me is what's jumping out here where it's like Evan's telling you if you get a 10 point lead, it's really tough for these teams to catch up because the offenses, these other teams are just so dynamic now where like even if we do get that backdoor score, who's to say that team's not going to get down there on a short field and score their own field goal or touchdown. And once again, we're not covering. So, yeah, that's what this is, a show I'm definitely gonna be listening back to to get more of these numbers from Evan because it's, it's a good reminder too, to play during the season to ourselves because it's, it's changed. Chad, we always joke we used to force ourselves to put one favorite in. We now might have to flip and force ourselves to put maybe two dogs in and try to go three favorites or something. But like you said, I don't want to over adjust yet. But I did make big adjustments at the end of the playoffs and people saw it like I was taking more favorites in the playoffs and I had to really be pushed to want to take a dog. I mean, hell, I took both chalk home favorites in the AFC championship game and I heard a lot of shit that week. It's like, you think it's just going to be that easy? Eagles and the Chiefs and that's the way it's been for the public people. It's really been that easy. So, yeah, hearing these numbers get broken down, you know, my fear is, Chad, that I over adjust. And like Evan just said it, coming back around this season, me and you miss that golden whale. Like, that's what I don't want to, I don't want to miss here where I don't think we will. I think if we see dogs doing really well, especially midway through the season, week 12 and 11, you know, we'll, we'll say, okay, let's go back to what we were doing that was so good for us the previous years, where last year, I Remember in week 12 and 11, me and you were looking at each other being like, should we adjust? I hate taking favorites. What are we supposed to do here? And all of a sudden I, I think, Evan, we had a run there of five, six straight weeks of favorites covering in the middle of the season, which does not happen because that's what I keep trying to tell people about the sports books. They, the NFL is their baby. This is their most important sport. The money that comes in on this sport isn't. It's, it's out of this world compared to other sports. Right? This is the driver of the markets. Hell, I go to the sports book all the time in my off season. The difference between the NFL season and others and the other seasons is, is palpable. So yeah, Chad, this is. I, I don't want to over adjust, but I'm telling you, the more I talk to Bookmakers, it feel like they're, they're feeling confident, they're not over worried about it, maybe we should do the same. But it's not in my nature not to be worried and not to freak out about it.
- [44:17]
Chad Millman
My feeling on anxiety generally is that is the. It is, it is the most powerful tool to improving honestly because if you use it properly then you're going to do the work you need to do to get yourself prepared and put yourself in a better position to succeed. If you use it negatively and it keeps you up at night and just paralyzes you and you know, shuts you down and makes you not be able to function, it's terrible. But I actually love the power of anxiety in this particular context when it comes to work and things that you can control because it will fuel us to make sure that we're not doing the wrong things, whatever we think that will be when we get into the regular season. Evan, we've just talked about a bunch of different areas where we have historically focused. Can you give us some examples where other sort of conventional gambling wisdom is now losing bettors money?
- [45:25]
Evan Abrams
So I think a classic to anytime long time NFL gambler is betting bad teams off a loss, which we kind of already talked about a little bit, but this is just, is a little more simple. So I looked at all teams that met this betting criteria. Teams with a losing record, who are underdogs, who are just coming off a loss in general. Classic ugly dog situation. If you bet every team in that situation last two seasons you'd have a negative ROI of almost 9%. Two seasons, 9% pretty damn bad. That is the worst two year stretch in our BET Labs database again since that 2003 number. So again, pretty simple here. That is teams with a losing record, underdogs, awful loss spread, doesn't matter. Those are just the three criterias. You'd be down almost 9% and if you go even deeper there. So really ugly dogs, six plus point dogs. So instead of just underdogs, you're looking at dogs of six points or more. It honestly gets even worse. And the thing is you want to look at at least I did, I looked at Moneyline results. So. So between 2013 and 2018, which is basically pre Paspa, minus 6.1% ROI, 22.9% straight up. So that is 2013 to 2018. I'll say that again. Minus 6.1% ROI, 23% straight up. Since 2019 it is minus 18% ROI and 18% straight up. So that is about three times worse on the ROI and about 5% less on the straight up win percentage. And we're just talking about blanketed here. Big underdogs, awful loss, bad team. And that is pretty much what a lot of us tend to at least look at early week to kind of filter flag, you know, trigger some signals and they are just getting absolutely bamboozled at the moment. So I felt like that was a good signal of what the heck is happening here.
- [47:27]
D
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- [48:38]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I actually wonder the PASPA line of demarcation and legalization. We've talked a lot about the public getting smarter about how much more money is coming into the market, how the bookmakers are becoming much more sort of retail books, right? And they probably think less and less about what professional betters are doing or moving on faces or moving off of a $500 bet, even if it's someone else is betting $10,000 on the other side. If the 500 is smart money.
- [49:16]
Simon Hunter
I.
- [49:16]
Chad Millman
Think that's having a much bigger impact on how we think about our business, Simon, than maybe we've been accounting for a little bit.
- [49:26]
Simon Hunter
I would say the biggest change too for me would be, you know, when I was living in Vegas, there were just so few guys who did this for a living. Especially bet on the NFL for a living because it's such a hard sport to do Now, Chad, it's a whole different world. Like there's guys who I never would have taken serious being the douchebag I was back then being like, that's not a real better now. No, this dude's legit. Like he's put in the work. You know, I see him there all the time in the sportsbook. The more I talk to them, the more I respect them. And this time goes along, you're like, okay, it's a new wave of this younger generation, people my age, I should say that have come to this market with their own computer models where it just was never like that. Right. You never really saw it like that in Vegas. And I like it. But like you're saying, it's changed the market in a lot of ways. And a lot of things we joked about, especially when they legalize it of, you know, there's gonna be a lot of games where we get a ton of free points. We've been getting that chub. It's not been coming through. And I especially would have loved having to do just prime time games because, you know, some of my best runs have been those underdog under the unders on these primetime games. Like I've. I've just had a really good run, especially since the legalization of sports betting. Just simply betting unders in these primetime games. And you know, we had that one year. Was that two years ago, Evan, where we were like 70% betting the under in primetime games. It was crazy. But I remember last year it came back around, right? We had a bunch of overs in primetime games. So like we can just keep talking about it. It's like I once again, I don't want to over adjust, but we're seeing the public, even they're betting these lines up. These offenses have been coming for the favorites and these offenses on these for these favorites have been coming through for them where the overs last year came through for them. And same with the favorites. So I don't know if you have numbers on that, do you, Evan?
- [51:17]
Evan Abrams
Yeah, I just pulled. So last season exactly 500. So basically totals in night games 33 and 33, in 2022 and 2023, they were 79 and 48 to the under almost 63%. So basically, I think you nailed it. I think it was favorites creating those totals that should have gone under to over the underdogs not covering. And it happened, happened at such a ridiculous rate that it basically pushed it about 12% last year.
- [51:49]
Simon Hunter
I mean, you just heard that, Chad. That's. That's crazy the difference from year to year. And that's why I keep trying to bring up that it simply could be anomaly. Like we we would the rule change to the kickoff. We are living in a weird time period where all these lines are all screwed up and we're going to look back on and just be like it was that simple. Teams, better offenses, better quarterbacks at shortened fields more often than not because of the new kickoff rules. And you know, those unders killed me but I remember thinking it might have been week five or six adjust. I didn't come on the show every week saying bet these primetime winners because of that. I was like something simply different here where these, we're not getting extra points here, we're not getting the free points we're used to. These games are going to go over because something has changed. And unfortunately it took me all season to figure out that kickoff. Man, it changed so much last season. And just there, Evan, giving those numbers really jumps out to me how much it did change it.
- [52:42]
Chad Millman
Well, look, the kickoff rule is changing again. And I think my opinion on the kickoff rule right now is that it's going to change it to the detriment of what we saw last year. I think that teams will more than likely be less inclined to when you're kicking off to putting the team in a position of running it back because the, the penalty is going to be so much greater. It's going to be even harder to, to stop teams because the field is going to be even shorter, number one. Number two, the one thing that worries me, Simon, about what you just said regarding kickoffs is that's a one year sample. And a lot of the stuff that Evan just pointed out is multi year changes. That where we've seen it sort of slant down, down, down, down, down. That has nothing to do with kickoffs. And that's the harder thing to unpack.
- [53:41]
Simon Hunter
It does. But last year was that what Evan's talking about on steroids? Like those other years, the margins were much smaller. And we've already talked about those other years. The stuff that makes sense for those years where the practice rate has dropped. And you can really dive into this whole thing if people wanted to. Like I know pros who have done it, but the fact that they're practicing less, tackling less has affected a lot of these teams. Especially the, the, the, the difference between a well coached team and teams that put on the pads during practice during certain weeks and teams that simply do not for the entire season. It's pretty interesting if people want to look into that stuff. But what you're talking about going back, Chad, I feel like is also something me and you've been Harping on about these coaches and these fourth downs. Like, we've really. If you go back and you look through even these last couple years, especially these last four or five years since COVID the uptick in coaches going for it on fourth down on their own side of the field is greatly up than it was in the 2010s, and that is something that you could attribute more to these favorites. But I just wanted to bring up the primetime under thing because people have asked me about it why we really didn't talk about it last season. I was like, what is there to talk about? It's a bad bet. Like, there was no value to me. We'll see this upcoming season like we said. I'm hoping the books adjust because of the kickoff Chad. Maybe every week we'll get an extra four or five points. But, you know, last year what hung true to me was Evan always come on here, talk about the 50 point line, right? When a total is above 50 points. Historically we'd always bet that under. I don't know if Evan has numbers on, but it felt like the same thing last year where that wasn't an easy layup bet every week like it was in the store before, where, you know, certain weeks we had to actually stay away from it. Where it's like, no, these two offenses can hit this number. Where usually we talk, we joke all the time. Like, you see a 51, you blindly take that under. Historically, long term, that's a winner. So once again, is it because of the kickoff chads, because of the fourth down ruling? Is it all been all mixed in one pot together? It's. It's just something that jumped out to me where it's like these simple bets I don't need to put a ton of work into now that's going to be another couple hours a week added into my regime of dive into these different games, these numbers, just because I can't blindly bet the under on 51 like I used to. Is that true, Evan?
- [55:51]
Evan Abrams
Yeah. So at 50 or higher, 20, 21 to 20, 23, 59, 64, 44. Last year, 13 and 12, 500 didn't matter. All in the air. So, yeah, I mean, last season that number didn't turn to anything. The, you know, three years prior, you'd be up almost 13 ROI.
- [56:13]
Simon Hunter
So there's a lot of patterns you're seeing here, Chad.
- [56:15]
Evan Abrams
A lot of patterns.
- [56:17]
Chad Millman
I actually wonder in the next year, Simon, will you spend more time during. There's this, during this off season focusing on fourth down and how to Find the signals and the noise on fourth down conversion or what happened with the kickoff?
- [56:36]
Simon Hunter
I, I'm done with the kickoff. I put a ton of time in it. As soon as the season ended, Chad, like I usually go away, I didn't do any of that. I literally just dove right back into it because I, I was losing my shit. Especially in the middle of the season about it where it's like, why can't I adjust this? What am I missing on this ruling? What's the biggest difference here? I told you, the biggest difference to me these last couple years has been the influx of these mobile, mobile quarterbacks from college and how that affects how these coaches call these fourth down plays. Because that is such a huge difference. Right? You have so many different options. You can either do a read option to the running back where the quarterback can keep it and run it, or they can just take it out of the running back's belly and just do a quick pass. And like we've seen these last five, six, seven years that really changed these fourth down offenses where it is such a big deal. So I'm probably with you. I'll probably spend the next, you know, month of May, a little bit of June, dive even more to these fourth down offenses. And you know, I've watched every single snap Daniels took on fourth downs and I'm really excited to see what Kingsbury does in year two with him because every play they call for him on fourth down was the perfect call, the perfect exact time. That's why me and you kept yelling for regression. It took a long ass time. I think it took the NFC Championship game for that regression to hit on fourth down because every play they called, Daniels always made the right read. Either gave it to the running back, hit the first read and Terry McLaren or he pulled in and ran it himself. Never did he make the wrong read. What was it, 80% they were on fourth down. So it was just, I mean it's incredible going back and watching that because you know, I, I like to pick guys apart because I know what this is, what the NFL coaches are going to do. Like every team, the NFC east, all they're doing is watching Daniels tape. Like they don't care about Dak or Russell Wilson on the Giants or Jalen Hurts. Everyone's just so locked in on Daniels because he was such a, a game changer last year. And that, that to me, Chad, will be my biggest offseason project. What is going down on these fourth downs on short fields? What is the biggest change these coaches have made? With the new kickoff rule.
- [58:32]
Chad Millman
Simon Evan this may be the most important episode we ever do. And amazingly, we'll return with our next episode of the Favorites Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts wherever you get your pods. Rate Review Subscribe Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about.
- [59:10]
Evan Abrams
Has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER okay.
- [59:16]
E
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- [59:44]
Evan Abrams
You're listening to an I Heart podcast.