The Favorites - Guest Anthony Dabbundo

Summary

Podcast Summary: "The Favorites" - Episode Featuring Anthony DeBundo

Hosted by Chad Millman and Simon Hunter on "The Herd with Colin Cowherd"

Release Date: April 10, 2025
Guest: Anthony DeBundo

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Introduction

In this episode of "The Favorites," hosted by Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, the hosts welcome their guest, Anthony DeBundo, a seasoned sports bettor and former colleague from the Ringer. The conversation delves deep into various sports topics, including recent NBA performances, MLB insights, and a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming NFL Draft, with a particular focus on the Indianapolis Colts and quarterback Anthony Richardson.

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Evan Abrams’ Daring Train Dash ([05:58] - [12:40])

Anthony DeBundo kicks off his appearance by recounting an adrenaline-pumping story about his friend, Evan Abrams. During a tense Thursday night game between the Niners and Rams, Evan faced the dilemma of missing his Amtrak train back to New York. With only 15 minutes to spare, Anthony drove Evan through multiple red lights to reach the station. As the train began to depart, Evan sprinted across the street, pants falling, and made a dramatic leap onto the side of the moving train. Despite the chaos and honking from frustrated drivers, Evan managed to secure a seat just moments before the train's doors closed.

Notable Quote:
Liz Ortiz shares, "[09:00] I have no idea now, did he make the train?"
Anthony clarifies, "[10:11] He made it by five seconds technically."

The story highlights Evan's tenacity and resourcefulness, drawing a stark contrast to their other producer, Gifford, who unfortunately broke his hip during a similar escapade last year.

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Philadelphia Sports Scene ([13:01] - [18:36])

The hosts transition to discussing the Philadelphia sports landscape, focusing on the Philadelphia Phillies' impressive performance in the 2025 MLB season. Liz Ortiz provides an in-depth analysis of the Phillies' strength, emphasizing their robust pitching rotation led by Zach Wheeler and contributions from relievers like Chris Sanchez and Lizardo.

Notable Quote:
Liz Ortiz states, "[14:38] The reason the Phillies are good in 2025 is their rotation. They have the best and most reliable rotation in baseball."

Chad Millman raises concerns about the Braves' dismal start to the season, pondering their futures opportunities despite their current struggles.

Notable Quote:
Liz Ortiz remarks, "[17:06] They've been historically bad. Like runners in scoring position. It's wild."

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NFL Draft and Anthony Richardson ([20:38] - [35:09])

A significant portion of the discussion centers around the upcoming NFL Draft, specifically the Indianapolis Colts' selection of quarterback Anthony Richardson. The hosts debate Richardson's potential upside versus his current performance issues, including injuries and inconsistent mechanics.

Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter critiques, "[27:42] Anthony Richardson might get beat out in camp by Daniel Jones because Daniel has a leg up on him."

Liz Ortiz counters by emphasizing Richardson's youth and the need for patience, noting that he is only 22 years old and still developing his skills.

Notable Quote:
Liz Ortiz muses, "[30:11] This guy is still only 22. If you treat this like his year two, maybe it shouldn't be."

The conversation also touches upon the broader implications of coaching decisions, player development, and the Colts' organizational patience with Richardson's growth.

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Sports Betting Strategies and Metrics ([35:09] - [48:21])

Shift-ing gears, Chad Millman and Liz Ortiz delve into advanced sports betting strategies, particularly the effectiveness of betting on favorites versus underdogs. They explore the evolving landscape of NFL statistics, discussing metrics like Expected Points Added (EPA) and success rate, and how these influence betting decisions.

Notable Quote:
Liz Ortiz explains, "[45:28] Success rate is still king for me in terms of like predictive value."

Chad Millman introduces the concept of "trench warfare" in betting, contrasting it with the unpredictability introduced by overvalued metrics like EPA.

Notable Quote:
Chad Millman analogizes, "[47:20] Success rate is the trench. You're in the trench trying to move 10 yards, and then someone throws a grenade."

The hosts share personal anecdotes about successful and unsuccessful betting strategies, highlighting the importance of adaptability and critical analysis in sports wagering.

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College Basketball and Future Outlook ([48:35] - [57:51])

Liz Ortiz recounts her experiences with college basketball betting, detailing a successful run during the tournament by betting against slow-starting favored teams. The discussion underscores the unpredictability of sports and the potential rewards of unconventional betting approaches.

Notable Quote:
Liz Ortiz shares, "[50:55] That is the ultimate Phillies scumbag degenerate run right there."

The episode wraps up with brief insights into the NBA Finals contenders, projecting favorites like Cleveland or Boston from the Eastern Conference and possibly the Clippers from the West, while also touching upon potential surprises like OKC.

Notable Quote:
Liz Ortiz predicts, "[53:00] Normally, it's going to be chalky and it looks that way."

Chad Millman emphasizes the importance of understanding team dynamics and avoiding overreliance on specific metrics when making betting decisions.

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Closing Remarks

The hosts conclude the episode by promoting responsible gambling and encouraging listeners to engage with their future content. They express gratitude to Anthony DeBundo for his contributions and tease upcoming episodes focusing on the NFL Draft and other major sports topics.

Final Note:
Liz Ortiz advises, "[57:51] If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER."

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Key Takeaways

• Evan Abrams' Train Dash: A testament to quick thinking and determination in the face of time-sensitive challenges.
• Phillies' Dominance: Strong pitching rotation as the cornerstone of their successful 2025 season.
• Anthony Richardson's Future: Balancing his potential with current performance hurdles requires organizational patience.
• Betting Metrics: Success rate remains a vital metric, but emerging stats like EPA introduce new complexities.
• College Betting Success: Betting against slow-starting favored teams can yield significant rewards.
• NBA Finals Predictions: Likely contenders include Cleveland and Boston from the East, with the Clippers as a strong West candidate.

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This episode of "The Favorites" offers a rich blend of personal stories, sports analysis, and betting strategies, providing listeners with valuable insights and engaging discussions on the current sports landscape.

Transcript

[Greg Rosenthal]

What's up everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal and I'm teaming up with the King of Spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs mock drafts to my top 101, free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

What's up everyone? Julie Swearbinks here along with former NHL player Nate Thompson.

[Nate Thompson]

We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

The name Energy Line with Nate and jsb.

[Nate Thompson]

Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey life. All topics are fair game, right?

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

Exactly. And you'll never know who will drop by to join us.

[Nate Thompson]

Julie is pretty well connected. She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

Listen to Energy Line with Nate and jsb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Israel Gutierrez]

I'm Israel Gutierrez and I'm hosting a new podcast, Dub Dynasty, the story of how the Golden State warriors have dominated the NBA for over a decade.

[Steph Curry]

The Golden State warriors once again are NBA champions today.

[Israel Gutierrez]

The warriors dynasty remains alive in large part because of a scrawny 6 foot 2 hooper who everyone seems to love.

[Steph Curry]

For what Steph has done for the game. He's certainly on that Mount Rushmore.

[Israel Gutierrez]

Come revisit this magical warrior's ride. Listen to Dub Dynasty on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Camila Ramon]

I'm Camila Ramon. And I'm Melissa Ortiz. And our podcast Hasta Bajo is where sports, music and fitness collide and we cover it all. De Arriva Hasta. This season we sit down with history makers like the Sucar family who became the first Peruvians to win a Grammy.

[Liz Ortiz]

It was a very special moment for us. It's been 15 years for me in this career. Finally, things are starting to shift into a different level.

[Camila Ramon]

Listen to Astavajo on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Elf Beauty, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.

[Chad Millman]

Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre my bff Professional. Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Steph Curry]

Hello, Chad. Did you watch that Lucas homecoming last night?

[Chad Millman]

That I watched the Lucas homecoming last night.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah. Doncic.

[Liz Ortiz]

Oh.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, Luca. Luca's homecoming.

[Liz Ortiz]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

I watched the whole thing. I watched the whole game. My kid and I were riveted. It was awesome. He was on fire. The tears were flowing. In the beginning.

[Steph Curry]

That was the key to me him crying in the beginning. This man is crying about the Dallas Mavericks. How did they let him go? You had a player that cared about playing in Dallas. It's.

[Chad Millman]

It's a guy. They put up a graphic, which I think I must have forgotten that Luca, at 28.6 points per game, has the third highest scoring average in NBA history after Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain. How the fuck do you let that. It's like, still astonishing. It's so astonishing that it's not even like that. Michael Malone getting fired with three games left two years after winning a title, and he's got his team, like, in fourth place in the. In the Western Conference with the best player in the world. That's like an old conversation because Lucas is so, so big. Last night was great. It was a great game. He was on fire. I love the way J.J. redick handled it. The end, they went into a timeout after he scored one more basket to basically seal the game. Came out of it. He fouled the guy. They brought him off. The fans were cheering. It was just such comeuppance. So great, so many fire. Nico chants. It was awesome.

[Steph Curry]

And I'm on the other side of it. People, like, were so upset. And remember, just during the super bowl week, everyone was just shocked by it. I'm the other way, where it's like, this is why I kind of love the NBA, because it's like, we all know it's kind of rigged. In what world does the best player. It'd be like, you know, Joe, bro, being traded to the Bears, like, doesn't make any sense. Just sending a guy from Cincinnati to Chicago, Same thing here. It's like, of course he went to the Lakers. It's like, of all the teams that he quietly went to, it had to be the Lakers. So to me, I've loved it. I feel like it brought some life into the NBA this season, where. Not that it was a boring season, any. Any measures, but it was like, these teams wouldn't care about Oklahoma City, Cleveland. It's like, okay, at least we have the Lakers. Like, the fact that this brought a whole spark to the league. I've loved it. So, yeah, last night, it's. It's the best nights, too, as a better, because it's like I did the chalky bet, bet on Luka, points, bet on them to win the game. And yeah, he showed up and just absolutely dominated. So, yeah, that was. That was a really fun game.

[Chad Millman]

I love that for you. I love that the Masters tees off today. In fact, it already has. Baseball is back. The draft is looming. We had great NBA action last night with the Mavs and the Lakers. The NBA playoffs are right around the corner. Joining us today to discuss all things sports and sports betting. A true Philly scumbag. Like the kind of. The kind of better that we absolutely love. Our former colleague, now working at the ringer from the fighting city of Philadelphia. He came to our live show in Philly mainly because I made him. Anthony DeBundo.

[Liz Ortiz]

Good to be here. And I'll be honest, when you texted me to scout some locations, I was incredibly honored. I was like, of all the people that Chad knows in Philly, he's texting me to be like, hey, you know any bars that we could do the event? And the bar that you guys picked was on my list. So that was very honored. And then quite a story. I don't know if you've talked to Evan Abrams about that night, but the adventure of getting him to the Amtrak train at 30th street was. Was one I'll never forget.

[Chad Millman]

Well, number one, I texted you because you're our audience. Like, sweet guy, probably bets too much. Love sports, representative of the Philly scumbag ethos. Also, you were raised in a bar, so I figure, like, if anybody is going to know where, like, a good time could be had for people like him, it would be you. I haven't heard the Evan Abrams story. I don't really care. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Oh, like, all right, now I'm getting Reamed here for not wanting to know about Evan Abrams. So go ahead, tell us the Evan Abrams story, please. Anthony, share.

[Liz Ortiz]

So if you remember, like, that Thursday night game, it was Niners, Rams, it was one of the worst Thursday night games maybe played all year, which was unfortunate, but Evan had a train that he had to make that was getting back to New York, and it was either make that train or wait, like two hours and be on, like, the midnight express that you. You really don't ever want to be on on the Amtrak Northeast Regional. And so he's like, I got 15 minutes. Do you think we can make it from, you know, Wicked Wolf, downtown, Center city, Philadelphia, all the way out to 30th Street? I'm like, yeah, we'll make it.

[Chad Millman]

So are you driving him or are you.

[Liz Ortiz]

I'm driving. Yes, I'm driving. So I am trying to hit or hit, you know, get through these lights. And we hit maybe every light possible in the 10 minutes. And, you know, we've all done this before. Like, the. Will you make it? Won't they make it? So we pull up to the corner that's opposite 30th street, and the train is taking off in two minutes. I'm like, dude, you're never going to make it if we sit at this red light. So he just jets out of the car. He's sprinting across the street, backpack on, his pants are falling down. I'm watching him, like, try to pull up his pants as he's running across street. People are honking at him because he's basically, you know, the light is green and he's like, just running through traffic. Here is a scene from a movie. So he runs into the platform. I have no idea now, did he make the train?

[Chad Millman]

Did he.

[Liz Ortiz]

Did he not make the train? And I'm driving home, waiting for the text to pop up from Evan. He said, you won't believe this, And I couldn't believe it. But I got to the platform, the trade started to close and started rolling away. So I jumped onto the sidecar until the conductor saw me and then eventually opened the door. So he made this train by, like, five seconds. Technically, didn't even make the train. And wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.

[Chad Millman]

I just jumped onto the. Like, was the door closed? Was he like Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible holding onto the side of the train while it was leaving the station?

[Liz Ortiz]

That's how it reads to me, is that. I don't even know.

[Chad Millman]

I feel like, wouldn't they emergency stop the train right in their tracks? It would be a delay and Evan would probably get arrested. Like, you can't jump on the train and just be on as it slowly holding on by your fingertips to the door.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah, he did. He did mention that he got screamed at Philadelphia style for doing it. But as a man of. Of New York, born and raised, it made no difference to Evan. It was a pass, fail test. The guy opened the door and had thus lost, so he happily took a seat.

[Liz Ortiz]

But yeah, it was a.

[Steph Curry]

It was a Tom Cruise esque moment.

[Liz Ortiz]

For our own Evan Abrams.

[Chad Millman]

And this is the one time he doesn't join the show.

[Steph Curry]

Unbelievable.

[Chad Millman]

Seriously. Unreal.

[Liz Ortiz]

So a lot of respect was gained for Evan that night. For me, I didn't know that he had that in him. Sprinting across the street through traffic, running down the platform, jumping onto a slowly moving train to. To save an hour and a half of sitting in 30th street in A. On a dark Thursday night and pouring rain.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, Evan's got a lot of dog in him. A lot like hardcore New York City. Raised, grew up betting sports. God knows what else. I don't think, like a slow rolling train out of Philly is going to scare him.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah, I was going to say we have one producer in Evan that can make that run that jump. And our other producer, Gifford, simply falls down the subway stairs and breaks his hip. Just two totally different men in this world.

[Liz Ortiz]

Oh, man. Dude, that story been told on this show before?

[Chad Millman]

What's that?

[Liz Ortiz]

Has that story been told on this show before?

[Chad Millman]

No, I was gonna tell it. Go ahead and tell it.

[Liz Ortiz]

So what was it last? It was Wild Card Weekend.

[Chad Millman]

2023, I think.

[Liz Ortiz]

No, no, it was like, it was last year. It was. It was the. Yeah, it was Walker weekend last year, and he had left to go back to Hoboken on the PATH train. And all of a sudden, Christina Ventura, who used to work at Action, she came in and was like, is anybody sober at this party? And I'm like, yeah, I raised my hand. She's like, gifford needs help. So here we are. Christina and I go into, try to find which entrance of the PATH train at 23rd and 6th.

[Steph Curry]

He's doing a tsunami.

[Liz Ortiz]

Right. It was pouring rain on him. Flooding the street, by the way. Yeah. And we find him and he's just like sitting there on the steps, like, just wincing in pain. And we eventually, you know, Christina stayed with him and we got his stuff and. And, you know, they took care of him. I think he was in surgery like, two days later.

[Chad Millman]

But he broke his hip.

[Liz Ortiz]

Yeah. Apparently he'd done it before.

[Chad Millman]

I believe he was turning 30. He broke his hip for the second time. It was the other hip. So now we've got one producer who is so bold he will jump on a moving train rather than spend another two freaking hours in Philadelphia. And. And one producer who is so fragile he's already got more hip injuries than my 85 year old mother in law.

[Liz Ortiz]

So the dream crew, that probably goes really well on a hinge prompt.

[Chad Millman]

That's what I can see. Why De Bundo ran out of here as fast as he possibly could. Once Bill called, he was like, I cannot work with these people anymore.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Anyways, baseball season started. Simon, do you want to commiserate with your fellow Philly fanatic for a second?

[Steph Curry]

Yeah, let's. Let's jump into it, brother. It's, you know, we're both huge Phillies guys. You know, Zorilla came on here like you said. He was not, you know, giving out the Phillies over. Which was a shocking to me, which, what should we know about the Phillies this year? Like, we're off to a great start. What's going to carry us to Bundo? Is it our pitching? Is it our bats? Like, I mean, I'm sure you're already in the same spot. They need, you know, they need to change the lineup already because we have a couple of dead bats in the middle of the lineup. Like, what's your view on the Phillies for this upcoming season? Do you think they're going to keep staying hot being the second best team in baseball, or do you think they're going to fall off?

[Liz Ortiz]

Yeah, I think it's funny how the Phillies have changed. So they used to be back in 2022 when they first made the run and burst onto the scene, it was like, oh, they're your lovable beer league softball team. They hit a bunch of homers and, you know, they don't really play defense. And their pitching is kind of iffy. But really like, the reason the Phillies are good in 2025 is their rotation. And I think when you look at this rotation, this group of four and Ranger Suarez is coming back eventually. Five pitchers. They're the best and most reliable rotation in baseball. And, you know, for all the talk about the Dodgers preseason and this incredible rotation of names, it only took 14 games for them to start. Two dudes who most people have never heard of because of injuries and certain guys missing time. So the Phillies, with Wheeler and Nola and Chris Sanchez, breakout. And Lizardo, him having a couple great starts here and looking really good. They're in every game. Like it's very hard to beat them in a kind of a laugher because they're just, their pitching is so good and so reliable and, you know, there's still a lot of star power in this lineup. I know they're getting older, but they're not old. They're older, but they're not old.

[Chad Millman]

Well, define like their window. What is older? Like, when do they get old?

[Liz Ortiz]

That's the big question I've said. So Zach Wheeler signed a, a three year extension, so he's going to be pitching for the next three years. I think that is their window. So long as Wheeler is as dominant as he's been. And he's been, you could argue, the best pitcher over the last five years, cumulative in baseball. As long as he's throwing and as long as Harper and Turner and Schwaber are producing at the heart of this lineup, I think they're going to be in that mix. And it's not that they don't have prospects because they've got a guy, Andrew Painter, who's coming up June, July, and he's going to be, you know, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. He could be kind of the gap, the bridging of the gap. He could be in the bullpen come playoff time. There are certainly holes with the Phillies. They are the third oldest lineup in baseball, but a lot of these guys are like 31 to 33. It's not like they're relying on a bunch of 36 year olds who are on their last legs.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah, I'd say I agree with that. That's the fear is that it's, it's not that they're super old. They're just at the age where these guys get those little injuries. That's, that's the fear. Right. Like we've already had, you know, even last year, Bryce Harper missed a decent amount of time. He came back and obviously he was trying to get into it, but he just was not the same player as he was before the injury. And even this season, like you just talked about, the Dodgers have already had a couple of guys get hurt. And it's like, that's my fear with this Phillies team, is we're going to be cruising. And then come July might have one or two of these starters down, have a couple of bats missing from the lineup and it feels like they're done at that point. So, yeah, to me, what you just talked about, the Phillies needed to get off to a hot start. Then the Cubs that like, you Know, these couple of teams that needed a good start, have had the good start. So I think feel like you're in the same boat as me, Anthony. I'm pretty happy. Is this the way this season has begun? As a Phillies fan, it feels like we are on the top three top four teams in baseball right now.

[Liz Ortiz]

And Atlanta's two and nine, I mean that's, you know, that's, that's rare. Right? So seeing them all the way down there and you know they'll have a rubber match with Atlanta, but if they're able to win tonight, Thursday and they're able to, you know, win two out of three against the Dodgers and the Braves to start the season, I mean that's a really encouraging sign because, you know, the NL is really, really deep. You look at the Padres, the Giants, kind of surprising early this season. But especially the Mets and the Braves and, and the Dodgers. Like there's so many teams, it's a much more top heavy league than the, even the American League is where everybody's kind of jumbled in the middle there. So it's going to be really competitive for those top spots.

[Chad Millman]

When you look at a 2 and 9 Braves team, this is a question for both of you. Do you see futures opportunity? This team is too good not to turn it around. Strange start.

[Liz Ortiz]

They've been historically bad. Like runners in scoring position. It's wild. Even, you know, Wednesday night against Philly, they had I think nine runners left in the first five innings. Those are the kind of things you just kind of expect to even out their pitching depth. I think is a real question like is Sale going to be as good as he was last year? Do they have enough starters? There's a lot more holes than I think people realized about Atlanta, but I think certainly like they're down to like minus 150 to make the playoffs. It might be a good buy, low opportunity.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah. And they're also, I mean the thing that's working against them I feel like in the futures market is the fact that they are in the division with the Mets and the Phillies. Like the Mets look like a pretty well put together team at this point. So like Anthony just said, the value is going to be on Atlanta. Like there, there is really no difference between them and the Phillies and then Mets. They're all kind of the same team. They're all well built, they have a ton of talent. I mean, you know, Zerillo gave out Spencer, the starting pitcher for the Braves at like a crazy number for Cy Young. He's already in the top 10 right now for futures market. So it's like, you know, Atlanta's got the arms, they got the bats. It's like what Anthony just said. They've been crazy unlucky and they had a tough start. Right. They just played the Dodgers and the Phillies, like two of the best teams in baseball, so.

[Liz Ortiz]

And the Padres, too. Yeah.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah. I like your heads at Chad. That's probably a smart time to maybe jump in. Or you can wait until they lose the series against the Phillies and you.

[Chad Millman]

Get even better odds, like, where your head's at. See, I think about opportunity. I see the whole goddamn board, Simon. Hey, speaking of board, how do you like this transition? The NFL draft is coming up. Anthony loves the Indianapolis Colts. I don't know why.

[Liz Ortiz]

Sacrilegious in Philly, to be honest.

[Chad Millman]

What's that?

[Liz Ortiz]

It's pretty sacrilegious of me as a Philly guy.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, but it's.

[Steph Curry]

I'm not going to lie to the first time he told me I like, did side out of him, I'm like, what the fuck, dude? You're a Philly guy.

[Liz Ortiz]

He thought Simon. The first time I met him, he's like, dude, you're always praising Dak on Twitter, like, are you a Cowboys fan? I'm like, no, I'm just a Colts fan who likes Dak, thinks he's good.

[Chad Millman]

But it is weird because you are such a Philly dude that it's weird to me, you would escape the clutches of the Eagles and then not just that. Root for the most random, nondescript, no personality team. And it's not like, I mean, you're still a fucking baby. So it's not like Peyton Manning was in his prime as you were going through your teenage years of fandom.

[Liz Ortiz]

Andrew Luck was in his prime when I was going through my teenage years of fandom. No, I think the origin story is weird but pretty simple. And it's that. So my dad owned a sports bar in South Philly for many, many years. So the Eagles were always on, and I was always around the Eagles, but he was never that big of an Eagles fan. And my other biggest sports influence is my older cousin who's like a brother to me and grew up around the corner. And he was a Colts fan from his family, so we just watched Colts games and I kind of copycatted him when I was, you know, six, five years old. And did it help that the. The Colts were good? Sure. You know, Peyton Manning was pretty good in 2004, but, you know, it kind of just stuck. And then when, you know, they got rid of Peyton, I became a Colts fan who also rooted for Peyton, and then I kind of just stuck with it. And honestly, I joked about this the last few months because of the Eagles winning the super bowl. Probably a bad choice. I feel like I made a bad organizational decision there. I should have been an Eagles fan and just rode with the crowd because they've won, you know, two Super Bowls in the last eight years. And I was the guy that was like, yeah, yeah, you know, happy for my friends, happy for my family who are Eagles fans. But don't, don't get moved by it. So it's been a weird place.

[Greg Rosenthal]

What's up, everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal, and I'm teaming up with the King of spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs, mock drafts to my top 101, free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

It's Julie Stewart Banks. I'm doing a new podcast from iHeart Podcasts and the National Hockey League, and I'm paired up with one of my favorite players, the always quotable Nate Thompson.

[Nate Thompson]

I wore nine NHL sweaters and I have story after story to share. And believe it or not, I have plenty to say, and not just about hockey.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

Believe me, he does. Energy Line with Nate and JS B is the name of the podcast and it's going to be, well, it's going to be quite the ride. We're officially linemates, Nate. We're the Energy Line.

[Nate Thompson]

We'll have plenty of folks join us, current players, some of my former teammates, hall of Famers, and wait to see some of the connections that Julie has. She has quite the Rolodex.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

Okay, we'll lean into Nate's playing experience and tap into our interests away from hockey and try to do it. Energy lines are supposed to to do, provide an emotional boost. How do you feel about all that, Nate?

[Nate Thompson]

I'm vibing Julie. I'm ready to roll.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

Listen to Energy Line with Nate and JSB on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Israel Gutierrez]

I'm Israel Gutierrez and I'm hosting a new podcast, Dub Dynasty, the story of how the Golden State warriors have dominated the NBA for over a decade.

[Steph Curry]

The Golden State warriors once again are NBA champions.

[Israel Gutierrez]

From the building of the Queen that included Klay Thompson and Draymond Green to one of the boldest coaching decisions in the history of the sport.

[Steph Curry]

I just felt like the biggest thing was to earn the trust of the players and let the players know that we were here to try to help them take the next step, not tear anything down.

[Israel Gutierrez]

Today, the warriors dynasty remains alive in large part because of a scrawny 6 foot 2 hooper who everyone seems to.

[Steph Curry]

Love for what Steph has done for the game. He's certainly on that like Mount Rushmore for guys that have changed it.

[Israel Gutierrez]

Come revisit this magical warriors ride. This is Dub Dynasty.

[Steph Curry]

The Dubs dynasty is still very much alive.

[Israel Gutierrez]

Listen to Dub Dynasty on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mel Reid]

Hey, this is Mel Reid, LPGA Tour winner and six time Ladies European Tour.

[Camila Ramon]

Winner and Kyra K. Dixon, NBC Sports reporter and host.

[Mel Reid]

You forgot to say warm and Miss America, by the way. And we've got a new podc Quiet Please with Mel and Kira.

[Camila Ramon]

We are bringing you spicy takes on sports and pop culture, some golf haps and interviews with incredible people who have figured out how to make golf their.

[Mel Reid]

Superpower or just people we like. Plus tales from the road and everything in between. By the way, golf isn't just for the dads, Brads and Chads.

[Camila Ramon]

Yeah, it's actually life's cheat code and we're not going to be quiet about it on or off the course. We're bringing on some of our friends like Michelle We, Heather McMahon, Amanda Baliotis.

[Mel Reid]

So if you want to keep up with us and here is yap, tune into our new podcast, Listen to Quiet.

[Camila Ramon]

Please with Mel and Kira, an iHeart women's sports production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. You can find us on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.

[Chad Millman]

Now we've got interesting quarterback selections at the top of the draft, potentially Cam Ward, Shador Sanders. A few years ago, similar scenario. There were a lot of quarterback options. The Colts went with Anthony Richardson. Simon loves Anthony Richardson at the time for his upside. We had a long conversation with Kevin Clark about the value of drafting for upside, but then how you have to sort of nurture that talent and you can't just sort of walk away from it. You have to know what you're getting into. You look at Anthony Richardson to me he's such a wild card as a better and as a, for me as a better, but also he's a wild card as a talent. Do you look at it as someone who is watching this team very closely but also betting regularly and see Anthony Richardson as someone you would like to invest in as fan and better?

[Liz Ortiz]

So I thought it was the for all the reasons you talked about the Colts, you know, the nickname of Indianapolis being Naptown for all those years, the patience and sometimes astonishing patience that the Colts have had and maybe too much patience their front office has showed. I thought that was the perfect organization for Anthony because like you said, he needed the time. He needed an organization and a fan base who wasn't going to go turn on him after eight games, after 16 games. But it has certainly been a rocky two years and he's only played a handful of games because of injury. And so I think that is the most alarming thing for me as a fan, as a better. The Colts were better last season when Richardson played. They were, they were better against the number they had a bunch of close losses and covers. They were I think Richardson at one point was 7 and 1 ATS because his running ability in the red zone is effective. His running ability enables them to run the ball better with Jonathan Taylor, things they were not getting with Joe Flacco. And so there were plenty of bad but there was also so much explosiveness in that team that you just don't quite have with most quarterbacks. And so I have no problem with the pick with chasing the upside as a better going into this season. I think you're going to know pretty quickly you're going to be able to tell even in training camp, even in preseason, Richardson's mechanics, his throwing mechanics because they, they haven't been great. He's struggled with the intermediate throws and he has a new throwing coach he's working with, the guy who helped fix Josh Allen's mechanics. So that's what we're clinging to as Colts fans and as you know, potential over seven and a half betters. But I think there's definitely some kind of, you know, stuck in the middle that the Colts have. They've been sitting in this 7 to 10 win range for basically since the day Andrew Luck retired. And so it's been very weird to to figure out how they get to that next echelon in this this loaded afc.

[Chad Millman]

Simon, please share with me your thoughts on Anthony's thoughts on Anthony Richardson.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah, it's, it's a lot to unpack. Just because they are a team that, you know, my knock against them is that they are part of this group of loud owners, loud ownership that seems like they keep trying to run their own ship and that's the last thing you want in football. And you know, we've seen prime examples, I mean, just in one year of different ownership down in Washington. Right. You went from an owner that couldn't stop being meddling in their business. You know, for sure if he was still the owner of Washington, he would have taken Drake May last year with Jaden Daniels, like it's, it's not shocking all that, that they got rid of him and they took the right quarterback for their organization in Washington. And with the Colts, I thought Anthony Richard at the time was the right pick. And you know, you go back and you look and go, yeah, sure, the dream would have been if CJ would have felt them right or if they would have traded up to that three spot and taken him over the Texans. And we, we talked Chad at the time like that draft was going to define this division over the next four to five years or even longer. It was even quicker than that. It was year one. CJ came out, won the division, now he's back to back champions of this division. Will Levis already out of a job. Right. They're going to draft Cam Ward this year. And we just talked about Anthony Richardson. He might get beat out in camp by Daniel Jones simply because Daniel Jones, he is going to be better than Anthony Richardson. A lot of stuff that, you know, the intermediate throws, reading on defense, all of that, he's going to have a leg up on him. So, you know, we're going to learn a lot, Chad, this upcoming season that it's going to be ownership that's going to have to step and say we want Anthony Thorn to be the quarterback here or the coach. I'd be shocked if he didn't say, well, Daniel Jones has outplayed him in camp. We have to start Daniel Jones here. So for the Colts, I, I, I hate it because it's like to me they should just roll Anthony Richardson once again. You know, you hope you see something from him this year three. And if you don't, obviously you move on from him in the quarterback position because Daniel Jones gets you what, Chad, 8 and 9, 9 and 8. Maybe a playoff berth because you're in such a weak division. But to me it's just, it's a loser move, it's a no win move. And yeah, I, I, I feel like I can hear in Anthony's voice here, a little bit of pain of just like there's no hope, but there's still a little bit of hope that he shows up this offseason, had put in the work, right? Got the right coaching staff, worked with the right QB coach. And does that make that year three change or it sucks. Like you've just wasted three years of the team. And like he knows they're losing offensive linemen. Jonathan Taylor's getting older. Like it's, they might be in for a full rebuild these next couple of years if things just go sour here. Chad. So it's bad.

[Liz Ortiz]

Here's the one thing. Anthony Richardson and Cam ward were born three days apart. He's still only 22 years old, and so maybe it never happens, but this guy who barely played in college. And so if you're betting on the upside, like you said, Chad, they needed to be patient. They needed to be able to wait it out. And I can't. I always come back to that fact, which is just that this guy is still only 22. And if you treat him like he's coming in for and I'm treating this like his year two because I thought his year one, he only played, you know, four games before he got the shoulder injury. He was out for the year. So you can't really evaluate that he didn't get a normal off season. So I'm treating this like his year two. And this is kind of the make or break year, but maybe it shouldn't even be because of how young he is and how raw he is. But again, you know, in the NFL, they're not going to let you just sit around and burn three or four years developing a quarterback who came in in the league at 20.

[Chad Millman]

Well, I wonder if Shane Steichen bears some of the responsibility in year two because he was brilliant in year one as a play caller. Right. And what he did with Gardner Minshew and how he sort of turned that team around in year two, I felt like there were probably, we look, we watched a lot of Colts games because we were always betting on the Colts because we always felt they were undervalued. And most of the time, as you noted, Anthony, they, they cashed and sort of rewarded us with our courage. But there were a few times where Anthony Richardson, in games that he both covered and didn't cover, was put in bad spots and making bad decisions because of the play calling. And that was just weird to me. Like Shane Steichen, I thought he was the reason why the Eagles had won the Super Bowl. A couple years ago, and all of a sudden he wasn't looking as smart as I thought he was.

[Liz Ortiz]

It's the same cycle because the Remember, the Eagles had Frank Reich as the offensive coordinator. Doug Peterson was the head coach. They won the Super bowl in 2017, and then Reich left to take the Colts job. And Reich immediately had success as a Colts coach. You know, Andrew Luck was the quarterback in 2018, and the Eagles kind of had a steady descent. And the belief in Philly at time was that Reich was the real genius, and it was in Peterson. Fast forward three years, both guys are now out of the league. So I guess, maybe, who knows. But the same cycle happened with Sirianni and Steichen where Steichen was seen as the genius. When the Eagles had this unbelievable collapse last year, it was Steichen, it was Gad. And Sirianni's loss. He doesn't know what he's doing. He should be fired. Everybody wanted him fired in Philly. Anybody who says otherwise is probably lying. And yet we come around and Steichen's on the hot seat. Ish. Entering this season and Sirianni is a Super bowl champ. So it's just funny how we craft these, like, narratives based on a handful of games and we end up being completely right sometimes and completely wrong another time.

[Chad Millman]

What does that say about anything we're doing?

[Liz Ortiz]

That's a good point. Maybe we don't know as much as we think we know. I don't know.

[Chad Millman]

We know more than we think we know or we know less than we think we know, but we definitely don't know exactly the amount that we just, we know.

[Liz Ortiz]

We just want to be right like 54% of the time.

[Chad Millman]

Speaking of being right 54% of the time, what was your take on the Favorites constantly covering last year and how is that impacting some of your off season prep work?

[Liz Ortiz]

I don't want to take anything into consideration from last season in terms of overreacting to a great Favorites run. Now that could cost me a lot of money in the upcoming fall, but I just like what is fundamentally changed in the league. You know, maybe tanking is becoming more of a thing. So in weeks like 13 to 18, you maybe reconsider some of those ugly, ugly underdogs. But even still, like the Giants still beat the Colts this year, there were still like, you know, games where upsets happened. The Panthers beating the Falcons on the final, final game to knock them out of playoff contention. So I think sometimes these things happen and I'm trying not to make Bold proclamations about like what it means about football going forward because I don't know, nothing that's really happening in the league is, is so different than it used to be. Like teams are going for it on fourth down more. I guess maybe that helps Favorites.

[Chad Millman]

That can't be. I don't disagree with you. Like we shouldn't be overreacting. A lot of the work I've been doing this off season has made me think maybe I don't want to overreact. I think Simon feel differently. But teams going forward on fourth down, that's. That's the ball game. That's not a. Let's just dismiss this one little fact from the equation. That is the fact and that is sort of the line of demarcation between I think people who are going to account for it and make changes and people who aren't. Anthony, you can respond. Simon, I would like your response after that. This is our own little McLaughlin Group.

[Liz Ortiz]

But, but how do you try to predict it though? Like I mean going into last the commanders were like 108 on fourth down last year. I don't know if that's. I don't think that's sustainable. I think the actual number was like 80 something. Do you say they're going to automatically be better than every other team on fourth down because of Jaden Daniels? Do you say that was a one off? I don't know. I think that's the big question. I do think though if the underdogs are going to start optimizing to try to win games instead of playing not to lose, which you see a lot, you see like how many times we see team as an underdog and they're like punting on 4th and 3. You know, if they're going for it more, does that open up opportunities for the favorites to get more margin? Maybe. But again it seems very noisy to me year to year to be like oh actually now favorites are going to win at a big rate and I think maybe there were just more bad teams than usual last year. That also could have been part of it.

[Chad Millman]

Simon?

[Steph Curry]

Yeah, my, my biggest hope was Anthony saying is right of the fact that people like me are over adjusting the sportsbooks over adjust as well and we get two to three extra free points of some of these dogs. Chad, that would be amazing obviously for us because then of course we'd feel more comfortable. But you know, even talking to guys who've been doing it for a long time, the change of either starting at your 20 after a kickoff or starting year 35 now after a kickoff is so massive, like it really is. Especially with these good teams where me and you talk about, Chad, if you pick up one first down, you are now at the 45 or the 47. Like that now puts that team, especially with a good quarterback that you believe in, in the driver's seat where it is a major difference. Where it's like we saw last year, these, these bad quarterbacks, the coaches didn't have faith in them. So instead of going for it on 4th and 2, 4th and 3 from the opponents, you know, 48 or their own, their own side of the ball, their own 48, they just didn't do it right. They always punted. Where the flip side, the good teams went for it. I mean, me and Chad had multiple, multiple weeks of the dogs we bet were great in the first half and then the second half their teams were punting. The other team were going for no fourth downs. And that's simply where like even when I went through the numbers, we lost so many games on those type of scenarios where historically we've always been good with the dogs. Like the home dogs have been good to us. So my biggest adjustment to it is I'm not going to overreact to it, right. I'm still going to do what we always do, Chad, right. In week one, week two, it's always good to take the dogs, right? The public will always react and bet from the previous season. My big adjustment will be that middle of the season, right, when me and you are really going through it. And that's when we usually lay into the dogs that we saw last year. That run that, I mean, Evan kept talking about every week it was like the dog, the favorites were hidden at over 65%. Then it would get to 70% and it was like, this isn't going down, this is going up. And that never happens with a book. So that's, that's my biggest adjustment I'm going to make is I'm going to go into the year hoping to bed dogs, but I'm not going to be stubborn like I was last year. Like, if there's a team like the Titans like they were this year, Chad, the worst team of football, me and you aren't going to try to out think it. We're going to bet against them, right? We're going to fade that bad quarterback because that's going to be profitable in the way the league has gone. So I'm interested to hear Anthony's view on that where it's like, I love betting on bad quarterbacks, that's really shifted after last season where it's like we're dead. Like these guys don't go for it on fourth down because they know their quarterback sucks. Why would you ever go for it with Will Levis on fourth down? You know you're going to lose that battle every time. And they did. They lost 16 straight games against the spread, something we've never seen before. So where you at with that, Anthony?

[Liz Ortiz]

Ben Johnson made a really interesting comment the other day about how EPA on passes is now more predicted than turnover margin in football. That was really interesting to me because I think a lot of times when we watch games we're like, oh yeah, like the box score was pretty even. But that one team, they had like three fluky turnovers. That's not going to continue. We need to start looking at this, I think from like a quarterback passing game perspective and maybe overweight, you know, quarterbacks again. And it's simple and it's square, right? To be like, oh, you know, I don't want to bet Will Levis against insert good quarterback here. But as this continues to trend, it's going to be really, really hard for the math to make sense as offenses get more efficient. And and one other thing you mentioned about early season, early season offenses were certainly down like the first four weeks. Even the good teams were not as efficient offensively. I wonder if that's a knock on from preseason. You know, the preseason being dead. Do we see unders and underdogs do better early and then the favorites kind of like lock in, kick into gear, sort some things out and play at a higher level down the stretch. Seems to be, especially with the extra week now and more playoff teams, there's more margin for error for you to be like, ah, you know, we're two and two after four weeks and we haven't looked very good. And then we figured out and easy.

[Steph Curry]

Teams to jump out for that. What you just said are like teams that like the Eagles last year had new coordinators. Detroit, it's going to be rough in Detroit those first couple weeks, right? They are, they've lost their offensive mind and their defensive mind. And you know, it was really interesting. Brandon Graham was just recently on a, on a show with Kelsey Brothers and he talked about that losing after the super bowl, losing both Gannon and Steichen. And he was just talking about they had new coaches coming. He was just like, I don't know about these dudes. And then they got rid of them and his next year they had new coaches in again last year. He said Fangs came in and literally told them the Eagles defense. He's like, you guys are lazy and you're losers and just basically talk to them for the first three months. And he said it sucked. Like, they all hated him. They said it was brutal. And then they started doing well and winning and he started being cool with them as time went on. He said we just kept getting better and better as the season went along. And that's. That, to me, is what you're talking about here, where it's like, you know, these guys come in the preseason. It's. It's them trying to fix bad habits, not so much them learning a new defensive scheme and stuff like that. So it is going to see these teams that have new coordinators coming in, big differences. Are we going to have an advantage there, Chad, trying to fade those teams that, you know, people are still going to perceive this Detroit offense being one of the best offenses on football. How do you not think losing, you know, an offensive genius and Ben Johnson is not going to be a big deal? I think it's going to be. So I think there's going to be some opportunity thus early on in the season to fade some of these teams.

[Liz Ortiz]

Chad, and maybe buy low, you know, mid season kind of thing, because they're still very talented in Detroit.

[Chad Millman]

You mean like buying the Atlanta Braves low?

[Liz Ortiz]

Yes.

[Greg Rosenthal]

What's up, everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal, and I'm teaming up with the king of spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs mock drafts to my top 101, free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday, keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Israel Gutierrez]

I'm Israel Gutierrez and I'm hosting a new podcast, Dub Dynasty, the story of how the Golden State warriors have dominated the NBA for over a decade.

[Steph Curry]

The Golden State warriors once again are NBA champions.

[Israel Gutierrez]

From the building of the core that included Klay Thompson and Draymond Green to one of the boldest coaching decisions in the history of the sport.

[Steph Curry]

I just felt like the biggest thing was to earn the trust of the players and let the players know that we were here to try to help them take the next step, not tear anything down.

[Israel Gutierrez]

Today, the warriors dynasty remains alive in large part because of a scrawny 6 foot 2 hooper, who everyone seems to.

[Steph Curry]

Love for what Steph has done for the game. He's certainly on that, like Mount Rushmore for guys that have changed it.

[Israel Gutierrez]

Come revisit this magical warriors ride. This is Dub Dynasty.

[Steph Curry]

The Dubs dynasty is still very much alive.

[Israel Gutierrez]

Listen to Dub Dynasty on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

It's Julie Stewart Banks. I'm doing a new podcast from iHeart Podcasts and the National Hockey League, and I'm paired up with one of my favorite players, the always quotable Nate Thompson.

[Nate Thompson]

I wore nine NHL sweaters and I have story after story to share. And believe it or not, I have plenty to say. And not just about hockey.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

Believe me, he does. Energy Line with Nate and JSB is the name of the podcast and it's going to be, well, it's going to be quite the ride. We're officially linemates, Nate. We're the Energy Line.

[Nate Thompson]

We'll have plenty of folks join us, current players, some of my former teammates, hall of Famers, and wait till you see some of the connections that Julie has. She has quite the Rolodex.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

Okay. We'll lean into Nate's playing experience and tap into our interests away from hockey and try to do what energy lines are supposed to do, provide an emotional boost. How do you feel about all that, Nate?

[Nate Thompson]

I'm vibing, Julie. I'm ready to roll.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

Listen to Energy Line with Nate and jsb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Mel Reid]

Hey, this is Mel Reid, LPGA Tour winner and six time ladies European Tour winner.

[Camila Ramon]

And Kira K. Dixon, NBC sports reporter and host.

[Mel Reid]

You forgot to say all my Miss America, by the way. And we've got a new podcast, Quiet Please with Mel and Kira.

[Camila Ramon]

We are bringing you spicy takes on sports and pop culture, some golf haps and interviews with incredible people who have figured out how to make golf their superpower.

[Mel Reid]

Or just people we like, plus tales from the road and everything in between. By the way, golf isn't just for the dads, Brads and chads.

[Camila Ramon]

Yeah, it's actually life's cheat code. And we're not going to be quiet about it on or off the course. We're bringing on some of our friends like Michelle We, Heather McMahon, Amanda Baliotis.

[Mel Reid]

So if you want to keep up with us, and here is yap, tune into our new podcast, listen to Quiet.

[Camila Ramon]

Please with Mel and Kira, an iHeart women's sports production in partnership with Deep Blue sports and entertainment. You can find us on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.

[Chad Millman]

It's interesting what you say about Ben Johnson. I saw that same quote about epa, and EPA has sort of become the favorite stat of the NFL geekerati. And at some point doesn't that just become overvalued? Like if everyone is incorporating into their model, if everyone is leaning into it, it's very hard to look at that and say, okay, that's my north star of metrics when I'm thinking about a play that I'm going to make for sure.

[Liz Ortiz]

And it's also not opponent adjusted usually. So that's another part of it which, you know, dvoa, which I think was the original gigarati. That one was at least opponent adjusted. But it was harder to understand and grasp, I think, than EPA is because people can kind of understand like positive, negative, and you know, what impact certain outlier plays can have. I like success rate. I think success rate is still, still king for me in terms of like predictive value. Because you see these teams and yes, explosiveness matters, but you know, you see these teams that, that run off a couple of handful of extreme outlier plays every game to juice their EPA numbers or to do certain things. You can also do EPA without turnover. So there, there's ways to maybe massage and look, look a little deeper than just baseline epa, because there's all kinds of, there's almost too many stats now when it comes to evaluating these football games.

[Chad Millman]

I agree and like, I love success rate. But then you think about success rate and it's kind of, it's naturally evened out and doesn't account for the explosiveness. That is the ultimate game changer, literally in every single game that determines if you're going to win or lose a bet. Right. None of these games go flat. Right. There's their EKGs. And success rate is a metric that is a flat line. Whereas the explosiveness, you need to be able to account for it. Like, right.

[Liz Ortiz]

What is trench warfare? Success rate is the trench. You're in the trench trying to. Yeah. Move the trench 10 yards one way and then move it back 10 yards and then somebody throws a grenade and.

[Chad Millman]

Blows up the game and it's all over. And success rate. Success rate can't beat a grenade.

[Liz Ortiz]

Right.

[Chad Millman]

It's like rock, paper, scissors grenade. Greater than success rate.

[Liz Ortiz]

There we go. Maybe we need to call the new stat that's What I'm always thinking about.

[Chad Millman]

That we need a new statistic. I think I might figure one out. I think I'm getting.

[Liz Ortiz]

Might have to be. I feel like the luck rankings are somewhat of that nature, like, which actually have been expected. Score.

[Chad Millman]

The luck rankings are brilliant and you're absolutely right. And shame on us for not mentioning that sooner because they are sort of a revolutionary stat that Nick Giffen and Sean Kerner and Billy Warden have sort of worked on and thought a lot about. And it's obviously a really important part of what Simon and I do during the season. We. We love it, but now we've talked about it too much. Other people might. Might be using it too.

[Liz Ortiz]

And nothing, nothing stays. Nothing that's any good stays. Stays hidden forever.

[Chad Millman]

Nothing.

[Liz Ortiz]

Two or three years ago, used to go on payoff pitch with Zerillo. We used to talk about stuff plus how much we loved it. We had the charts and we were discussing it. And now all I do on baseball Twitter, everybody's talking about stuff plus. And I'm like, might be. Might be solved. People might know too much about it now. Might have to zag and go the other way.

[Chad Millman]

Hey, you just came off a great run in College basketball betting. First to 10, I think. Yes, you could follow that in the award winning Action Network app where you're posting your picks. Explain yourself.

[Liz Ortiz]

So, you know, you watch certain college basketball teams, you start to notice patterns. And it was a tournament of the favorite, right? So everybody was like, oh, I got this dog plus eight and a half. And they might be tied for a bit, but then they just. The favorite goes on a 200 run run and you're drawing dead by the under 12 in the second half. And so St. John's was playing Arkansas and this was the Friday night before and I was talking with John Destremski on our pod and we were talking about, hey, like we. I liked Arkansas a little bit, but I said, I think they can hit him early. St. John's have been slow starters all year, which let's do Arkansas race attend. Like, people have been having fun with these bets you like to take. The underdog Arkansas came out red hot. I think it was like 10 to 2. I'm like, this was easy. I should do this more often. So it started with fading St. John's and Michigan State, who were two of these like overrated teams that started slow every game. And we went 2 0. And then I was like, all right, well now that I'm having fun with this, let's do one per day for the rest of the tournament. So we went against Alabama and byu, got run out of the gym. But not in the first 10 points, they didn't. So we were 3, 0. And then I'm like, okay, we get to fade Michigan State again. We had Ole Miss and then Texas Tech. So we kept betting all these underdogs and they kept losing the game, but they kept winning the race to 10. So it was really fun. And it ultimately culminated in an 80 run, which came down to just two incredible finishes the last two games. Auburn was 8, 8 against Florida, and they fouled Janai Broom, who's a 60 free throw shooter. And I'm running through the scenario. I'm like, all right, so he's going to make one or two. Florida's going to come down. They're going to make a basket. I'm going to lose. He nails both free throws. We're good. And then in the national championship, like, the mania had gotten so crazy. I had two friends text me. They're like, I've never placed a sports bet in my life, but I'm on Houston with you. Race to 10. 10 bet. Like, one guy had $10, one guy had $20. They're down 8, 6. They get a basket. Walter Clayton makes the worst pass you've ever seen. They turn it over. But now it's the media timeout. So I'm, like, shaking during the media timeout, being like, oh, my gosh, we got to wait four minutes for this game to come back. But I'm thinking Houston's going to have a good play coming out of this timeout. They run a beautiful slip screen dunk posterization. Me and my buddies are at softball. We're losing our minds, celebrating because I had the whole team on the bet and we finished the eight, no run, and I'll bring it back next March.

[Chad Millman]

That is the ultimate Phillies scumbag degenerate run right there.

[Liz Ortiz]

Well, because we're all going crazy and people are looking at us like, from the other team. They're like, what's going on? Like, why are these guys yelling about the basketball game? It just started like, well, they got to 10 first. They lost the game, too, by the way. So 8, 0 on the run. The teams who got to 10 first, 2 and 6. When it comes to winning the game.

[Chad Millman]

Before we let you go, we can't let you go. Without noting that the Philadelphia 76ers are 32 games below.500. So, you know, decent chance, they get their top five protected pick. Decent chance, 35% chance they don't have any pick because they have to give it to okc, one of the best teams in the league. If it's below top five. Cleveland, OKC number one. Number one in Eastern and Western Conference. Do you have any thoughts on your NBA Finals winner?

[Liz Ortiz]

So I don't know how it's not Cleveland or Boston from the east, based on some very, very baseline level analysis that I've done and listened to some of my colleagues who follow it more closely than I do. But in the West, I think it could be more interesting. I mean, OKC is historically good, and I think maybe we'll all look back and be like, yeah, idiots, it was always going to be okc. Look at how good they are. But I think that's the conference where there could be more parody, more intrigue, you know, if you want to get really crazy. I was joking around, like, if the Clippers stay healthy and if James Harden. You know, we're asking for something that usually doesn't happen, but if they do it, I think they have a pretty high ceiling. They're like 30, 30 to 1, 35 to 1 to win the finals and like 15 to 1, 16 to 1 to win the West. So they would probably be the team right now, I think if you're looking to get in, because the warriors, the Lakers, like, people have caught on to them. The Thunder of the Thunder. Who's the next team? It's probably the Clippers, but I. I kind of think like every other sport these days, it's probably just going to be chalky with okc vs either Boston or Cleveland. Probably Boston.

[Chad Millman]

There's some stat I can't remember, but similar to the NFL where the teams that have the shortest odds to start the season, like 12, 0, 12, 12 to 1 or less, that matchup usually plays out and one of those teams wins the Super Bowl. I can't remember how long it's been since a team that was outside the top four or five and shortest odds. Dallas Mavericks to win.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah, I think Evan had some crazy.

[Chad Millman]

Stat like that was it what you mean the.

[Liz Ortiz]

The Dirk Mavericks.

[Steph Curry]

The Dirk Mavericks were like the longest odds in recent and recently.

[Chad Millman]

That could be it. That could be it.

[Liz Ortiz]

Yeah.

[Steph Curry]

I feel like Golden State first. First time Golden State.

[Liz Ortiz]

Right. That's what I was gonna say.

[Steph Curry]

Sorry. Yeah, that was like everyone knew was coming, but no one really knew. I think they were greater than what chad's saying is 10 to 1.

[Chad Millman]

It's been a long time.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

All right.

[Liz Ortiz]

Usually it takes something crazy to happen. Like you Know, the Raptors got their win, but then that was when like the whole warriors team ended up hurt by the end of the finals. Or you know, you look at like even that whole run like KD's toe was on the line or whatever. So yeah, over the years it's been. Been pretty chalky and it looks that way. Now we've had teams get to the finals, right? Like the Heat have gotten to the finals. I think that people are shocked by that, but I think it's pretty shocking that to actually win it is a different story. Like even the Mavs last year came out of nowhere, but they didn't win it. Right. They got close.

[Steph Curry]

We got to end on a football note, Chad. So also I forgot to mention the top of the show. Gotta download the Masters app. If you're gambling on the Masters, the Masters app is the greatest thing ever invented for gamblers. So please download it. But Anthony, you're a Colts fan. You guys got pick 14. Who the fuck do you want? If you take Sanders, are you going to kill yourself? What is going to happen to pick 14 here?

[Liz Ortiz]

Because I'll be very upset if we take Sanders. I think I would be pretty shocked if we took Sanders.

[Steph Curry]

Me too.

[Liz Ortiz]

But you know, I think the tight ends are the two. The two. The two tight ends. Tyler Warren.

[Steph Curry]

And there's no way Tyler Warren drops you. Chad's getting Tyler Warren.

[Liz Ortiz]

Yeah. So I think a lot of people are understanding that we're probably not going to get him, but Loveland's the next guy.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah.

[Liz Ortiz]

We are one pick ahead of the Chargers, who a lot of people think Jimmy's going to want Loveland. So I think that we're kind of in that mix for, for Loveland and that'll be where we end up.

[Steph Curry]

But any of the receivers do you like or you don't? You're.

[Liz Ortiz]

We've drafted a lot of receivers and they don't keep doing it first round. They like to take second and third round receivers.

[Steph Curry]

Yeah.

[Liz Ortiz]

Because Pittman was second round, Mitchell was second round, Pierce was second round. So they've liked the kind of that tier of receiver and you could argue maybe they should take a bigger shot. But I think, you know, tight end has been a black hole for the Colts for really since like Eric Ebron and, and, and Derek Allen, Dwayne Allen.

[Chad Millman]

Way back in the day from Illinois, Dallas Clark. Dallas Clark. He was pretty good.

[Steph Curry]

He was great. Yeah.

[Liz Ortiz]

But so they've had issues. They drafted, you know, some mid round guys that haven't quite panned out. I think it's something that they want to solidify. So I think tight end will be in the mix. If not, just always assume that Ballard will take some freaky defensive end athlete who's ends up being just average.

[Steph Curry]

So you're bet tight end?

[Liz Ortiz]

I would, yeah.

[Steph Curry]

Okay.

[Chad Millman]

I'll bet that before Anthony was born, I did a story for Sports Illustrated about Ken Doger, the Indianapolis Colts tight end. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites deposit10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Thank you Anthony Debundo from the Ringer for joining our show. Continue to do amazing work over there. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday, 1:30pm Eastern. Talking NFL Draft with another former Action Network colleague, Matthew Friedman. Download some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, Subscribe, Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is gift. Until next time. Love you.

[Israel Gutierrez]

Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.

[Liz Ortiz]

If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.

[Greg Rosenthal]

What's up everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal and I'm teaming up with the King of Spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs mock drafts to my top 101 free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday. Keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

What's up everyone? Julie swearbinks here, along with former NHL.

[Nate Thompson]

Player Nate Thompson, we're doing a new podcast together. Here we go.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

The Name Energy Line with Nate and jsb.

[Nate Thompson]

Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey life. All topics are fair game, right?

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

Exactly. And you'll never know who will drop by to join us.

[Nate Thompson]

Julie is pretty well connected. She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.

[Julie Stewart-Banks]

Listen to Energy Line with Nate and jsb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Israel Gutierrez]

I'm Israel Gutierrez and I'm hosting a new podcast, Dub Dynasty, the story of how the Golden State warriors have dominated the NBA for over a decade.

[Steph Curry]

The Golden State warriors once again are NBA champions today.

[Israel Gutierrez]

The warriors dynasty remains alive in large part because of a scrawny 6 foot 2 hooper who everyone seems to love.

[Steph Curry]

For what Steph has done for the game. He's certainly on that Mount Rushmore.

[Israel Gutierrez]

Come revisit this magical warriors ride. Listen to Dub Dynasty on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Camila Ramon]

I'm Camila Ramon. And I'm Liz Ortiz and our podcast Hasta Bajo is where sports, music and fitness collide and we cover it all. De Arriva hast this season we sit down with history makers like the Sucard family, who became the first Peruvians to win a Grammy.

[Liz Ortiz]

It was a very special moment for us. It's been 15 years for me in this career. Finally, things are starting to shift into a different level.

[Camila Ramon]

Listen to Astavajo on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Elf Beauty, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.