Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "The Favorites - History Of Betting The Pope"

Release Date: May 9, 2025

Introduction to the Conclave and Betting Phenomenon

In this episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, host Chad Millman delves into the intriguing intersection of religion and gambling: the historical and contemporary practice of betting on the outcome of the Papal conclave. With global attention focused on electing the new Pope, Millman explores how this ancient tradition has evolved into a significant betting market.

Historical Context of Betting on the Papacy

The conversation begins with a historical overview provided by guest Anthony de Bundo, who highlights that betting on the next Pope dates back to the early 1500s. He explains, “As early as 1503, in Rome, when they were choosing the new pope, brokers and Roman banking houses took bets on who the next boat was going to be” (12:18). Despite the Church’s prohibition in 1591, betting persisted clandestinely until it was officially lifted in 1918. However, even with legalization, de Bundo notes that the practice never fully disappeared, comparing it to modern sports betting in America.

Current Conclave Dynamics and Betting Market

Chad Millman introduces the current Papal conclave, emphasizing its rarity and the concentrated global interest it garners. He states, “The biggest betting event in the world is trying to figure out how you can make money off of who is going to be the next Pope” (02:08). The episode underscores the use of modern, legal betting platforms like Kalshi, which allows users to trade positions on various outcomes, including the election of the Pope.

Guest Insights: Anthony de Bundo’s Expertise

Anthony de Bundo, a seasoned contributor to The Ringer, joins the discussion to provide deeper insights. He explains the structural changes in the College of Cardinals under Pope Francis, noting that “108 of the 133 members are new and appointed by Francis” (17:48). This significant influx of new cardinals introduces uncertainty into the conclave, as many are unfamiliar with each other, potentially leading to unpredictable outcomes.

Betting Platforms and Market Analysis

Millman elaborates on Kalshi, highlighting its role in prediction markets: “They call it trading. They don't call it betting, but they actually allow you to buy and sell positions on practically everything newsworthy” (12:46). He advocates for the platform’s reliability and foresight, especially in predicting events like elections. de Bundo adds that the diverse geographic makeup of the current conclave— with increased representation from Africa, South America, and Asia—significantly impacts betting strategies and potential outcomes.

Predictions and Handicapping the Conclave

The hosts and guest analyze potential candidates for the Papacy, discussing factors like age, geographic representation, and political stance within the Church. de Bundo identifies Pietro Powerlin as the favorite, describing him as “the insider, moderate continuation choice” (25:04), while Luis Antonio Taglia, the “Asian Francis” from the Philippines, emerges as a progressive contender with a strong chance (26:19). They also consider dark horse candidates like Pierre Batista Pizzabala and John Mark Abeline, who, despite lower odds, present unique strengths and appeal within the conclave.

Millman emphasizes the unpredictability of the conclave, noting historical trends where favorites often do not win: “Only three of the last four were not seen as top of the board picks” (32:49). This highlights the potential value in betting on long-shot candidates who may surprise the betting markets, aligning with the hosts’ strategies to capitalize on under-the-radar options.

Strategic Betting Recommendations

Both hosts share their betting strategies based on the analysis. Millman expresses interest in candidates like John Mark Abeline, who offers a balanced representation without being heavily favored or overlooked. De Bundo, on the other hand, leans towards Luis Antonio Taglia, citing his growing popularity and strategic positioning within emerging Catholic regions (38:16).

Conclusion: The Intersection of Faith and Gambling

The episode concludes with reflections on the blending of religious traditions and modern betting practices. Millman and de Bundo appreciate the historical continuity and contemporary relevance of betting on the Papal conclave, recognizing it as a unique event where faith and finance intersect. They encourage listeners to engage responsibly with betting markets, reminding them of the episode's broader discussion on navigating unpredictable outcomes.

Notable Quotes

• Anthony de Bundo (12:18): “As early as 1503, in Rome, when they were choosing the new pope, brokers and Roman banking houses took bets on who the next boat was going to be.”

• Chad Millman (02:08): “The biggest betting event in the world is trying to figure out how you can make money off of who is going to be the next Pope.”

• Anthony de Bundo (25:04): “He has the most connections to the other cardinals. Right. He's kind of been there the longest, kind of the elder statesman of the Vatican.”

• Chad Millman (12:46): “They call it trading. They don't call it betting, but they actually allow you to buy and sell positions on practically everything newsworthy.”

Timestamp Guide

• 02:07: Introduction to the episode and topic.
• 12:18: History of betting on the Papacy.
• 17:48: Changes in the College of Cardinals under Pope Francis.
• 25:04: Overview of favorite candidate Pietro Powerlin.
• 26:19: Introduction of Luis Antonio Taglia, the “Asian Francis”.
• 32:49: Historical trends of conclave predictions.
• 38:16: De Bundo’s betting strategy and favorite candidates.

Final Thoughts

The Herd with Colin Cowherd expertly navigates the complex and fascinating world of betting on the Papal conclave, blending historical insights with current betting strategies. By featuring expert guest Anthony de Bundo, the episode provides a comprehensive analysis that appeals to both sports betting enthusiasts and those interested in the intersection of faith and finance. Whether you're a seasoned better or a curious listener, this episode offers valuable perspectives on one of the most unique betting markets in the world.

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