Podcast Summary: The Favorites - Kentucky Derby Best Bets

Podcast Information
Title: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Hosts: Chad Millman (Action Network) and Simon Hunter
Guest: Mike Conte (Professional Horse Racing Handicapping Expert)
Release Date: May 2, 2025
Description: "The Herd with Colin Cowherd" is a thought-provoking, opinionated, and topic-driven journey through the top sports stories of the day. In this episode, titled "The Favorites - Kentucky Derby Best Bets," hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve deep into the intricacies of the Kentucky Derby, offering expert insights and betting strategies with guest Mike Conte.

Introduction and Guest Introduction ([01:11] - [02:26])

Chad Millman welcomes listeners to "The Favorites" podcast, part of The Volume Podcast Network. Co-hosted by Chad and Simon Hunter, the episode sets the stage for an in-depth discussion on the upcoming Kentucky Derby. Mike Conte, a renowned horse racing contributor from the Action Network and esteemed Chicago handicapper, joins the hosts to provide expert analysis on the Derby's betting landscape.

Quote:
Chad Millman introduces Mike Conte enthusiastically:
“We do nothing if not promote anybody from the great city of Chicago, Mr. Mike Conte. How are you, buddy?”
([01:28])

Launching Chad Millman's YouTube Channel ([02:31] - [05:28])

Simon Hunter takes a moment to announce Chad Millman's new YouTube channel, encouraging listeners to subscribe for live show simulcasts, clips from "The Favorites," and exclusive content including news reactions and betting insights. This initiative aims to expand the podcast's reach and provide more interactive content for sports betting enthusiasts.

Quote:
Simon Hunter shares his excitement:
“This is brand new. Everyone listening to the show needs to go subscribe to real Chad Millman on YouTube.”
([02:31])

Mike Conte reminisces about his early exposure to horse racing, explaining how growing up in New Haven, Connecticut, with a father who owned a sports bar, immersed him in the world of horse racing and betting from a young age.

Quote:
Mike Conte reflects on his upbringing:
“My father owned a sports bar in New Haven, Connecticut... we learned how to read the papers from all of the cast of characters that were at the bar at 8am on a Saturday morning.”
([04:51])

History of Handicapping and Horse Racing Betting ([03:40] - [07:58])

Simon delves into the origins of the term "handicapping," tracing its roots back to the Jockey Club in London during the late 1700s or early 1800s. The practice involved adding weights to faster horses to level the playing field and make races more interesting for bettors. This historical context underscores the evolution of sports betting as a foundational element of horse racing.

Quote:
Simon Hunter explains the etymology:
“It’s called handicapping because... he would add weights to the horses that were the fastest to handicap them.”
([03:52])

Chad Millman and Simon discuss the dark history of horse racing information dissemination, highlighting the battles over controlling the Daily Racing Form and the violent lengths competitors went to dominate this crucial betting resource.

Quote:
Simon Hunter shares a gripping story:
“… there were wars over the control of this information. Gangster wars... people were being killed to own street corners where they could distribute newspapers because it was so much money.”
([06:23])

Mike Conte admits his lack of prior knowledge about this tumultuous history, emphasizing the depth and complexity of the horse racing betting world.

Understanding the Kentucky Derby ([07:58] - [12:16])

Mike Conte provides a comprehensive overview of the Kentucky Derby, differentiating it from other Triple Crown races. Key points include:

• Age and Experience: Only three-year-old horses compete, often limiting their racing experience to less than a year.
• Field Size: The Derby features a deep field of 20 horses, each having potentially only faced 10-12 competitors before.
• Race Length: At a mile and a quarter, it is the longest race these young horses will have ever run.
• Starting Gate Challenges: New starting gate designs aim to mitigate early disadvantages, but the sheer number of horses and crowd noise still pose significant challenges.

Quote:
Mike Conte outlines the Derby’s uniqueness:
“It is the deepest field that they're going to run in. So there are 20 horses in every year's Kentucky Derby... these young three year old horses... coming into the biggest race of their lives.”
([09:15])

Simon Hunter and Mike discuss the psychological and physical stress factors impacting the horses, such as gate positioning and crowd noise, which can influence race outcomes.

Quote:
Mike Conte emphasizes the impact of starting positions:
“...a 20 horse field, that means he's going to need to work out a trip. Not always the easiest thing to do.”
([12:16])

Betting Strategies and Horse Selections ([12:16] - [23:37])

Mike Conte shares his expertise on selecting horses for bets, highlighting specific contenders and providing reasoning for his choices:

1. Tossing Specific Horses:

   • Number 13 Publisher (Maiden)
   • Number 11 Flying Mohawk
   • Number 12 East Avenue
   • Number 20 Owen Almighty
   • Number 15 Render Judgment
   • Number 1 Citizen Bull
   • Number 6 Admire Daytona

2. Bob Baffert’s Influence:
   Discussion on Bob Baffert’s return to the Derby and his dual reputation as a top trainer and controversial figure due to past drug-related suspensions.

Quote:
Simon Hunter probes Baffert’s legacy:
“...a legendary trainer winning Triple Crown races, but also suspended the past few years because he was drugging horses.”
([15:16])

3. Long Shots and Value Bets:
   • Luxor Cafe (Number 7): Bred from American Pharaoh, facing a challenging 17 post with historical jinxes.
   • Final Gambit (Number 3): A closer expected to surge late in the race.
   • Rodriguez (Number 4): Recent Wood Memorial winner with strong performance metrics.

Quote:
Mike Conte presents Luxor Cafe as his top choice:
“…number seven Luxor Cafe... he’s the most talented horse on paper and visually.”
([19:56])

4. Breeding and Genetics:
   Analysis of American Pharaoh’s breeding line and its significance to Luxor Cafe’s potential performance.

Quote:
Mike Conte discusses breeding investments:
“...American Pharaoh’s stud fee was like $150,000 per live offspring.”
([25:04])

Betting Tools: Exactas and Trifectas ([33:28] - [35:28])

Mike Conte explains advanced betting strategies, detailing how to construct exacta and trifecta bets to maximize potential payouts:

• Exacta: Betting on the first two finishers in order. Mike outlines his picks, featuring Luxor Cafe and Journalism in the first-place spot and includes multiple candidates for second place to cover potential outcomes.

Quote:
Mike Conte describes exacta betting:
“…exacta is betting on the first, the top two finishers... I’m going to have the number 7 Luxor Cafe and the number 8 Journalism in the first place spot.”
([33:28])

• Trifecta: Betting on the first three finishers in order. Mike provides his selections, incorporating a range of horses to cover various scenarios, offering a chance for high payouts.

Quote:
Mike Conte explains trifecta construction:
“My trifecta ticket is going to look like this... he is going to be a $56 bet where you're going to get about 20 to 1 on your bet.”
([34:35])

Simon Hunter and Chad Millman engage in lighthearted banter about the thrill and challenges of hitting large payouts, sharing personal anecdotes about their own betting experiences.

Personal Insights and Anecdotes ([25:28] - [37:18])

The discussion shifts to personal stories and reflections:

• Horse Racing Movies:
  Chad Millman and Simon Hunter share their favorite horse racing movies, discussing how films like "Secretariat" and "Seabiscuit" capture the unpredictability and emotional intensity of horse racing.

Quote:
Simon Hunter shares his movie experience:
“My wife and I... we are just in agony. We're like, I can't believe this is our first night out. But Seabiscuit, brilliant book, great movie.”
([29:53])

• Genetics and Evolution in Horse Racing:
  The hosts and Mike explore why horse racing hasn’t evolved as much as human athletics, touching on genetic factors and the role of chance in breeding successful racehorses.

Quote:
Chad Millman ponders horse genetics:
“They’re just. It’s still doing the same thing they did, you know, back when they first established breeding horses.”
([26:44])

• Mike Conte’s Athletic Background:
  Mike Conte shares his history as a football player at Ithaca, highlighting his notable achievements and how his athletic background informs his expertise in horse racing handicapping.

Quote:
Simon Hunter acknowledges Mike’s sports legacy:
“You are a sports legend. Back in 2011, you had an 88 yard pick six...”
([36:02])

Conclusion and Final Thoughts ([37:09] - [38:14])

As the episode wraps up, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter encourage listeners to subscribe to their YouTube channels and explore additional content for in-depth Derby coverage. They also highlight upcoming episodes and direct listeners to further resources for betting strategies.

Quote:
Simon Hunter promotes future content:
“Listen, if you're looking for even more derby coverage, check out the betting preview of the Action Network podcast...”
([37:18])

Mike Conte concludes with a responsible gambling reminder, emphasizing the importance of betting responsibly.

Quote:
Mike Conte advises caution:
“Action Network reminds you: Please gamble responsibly.”
([38:02])

Key Takeaways:

• The Kentucky Derby is a unique and challenging event for both horses and bettors, featuring a deep field of young, relatively inexperienced horses.
• Historical insights reveal the deep-rooted and sometimes tumultuous nature of horse racing handicapping and betting.
• Betting strategies such as exactas and trifectas can offer significant payouts but require careful selection and understanding of the race dynamics.
• Personal anecdotes and expert analysis from Mike Conte provide valuable perspectives for both novice and seasoned bettors.
• Responsible gambling is emphasized as a crucial aspect of engaging in sports betting.

Notable Quotes:

1. Simon Hunter on Handicapping Origins ([03:52]):
   “It’s called handicapping because... he would add weights to the horses that were the fastest to handicap them.”

2. Mike Conte on the Derby's Challenge ([09:15]):
   “It is the deepest field that they're going to run in. So there are 20 horses in every year's Kentucky Derby... coming into the biggest race of their lives.”

3. Mike Conte on Exactas ([33:28]):
   “...exacta is betting on the first, the top two finishers... I’m going to have the number 7 Luxor Cafe and the number 8 Journalism in the first place spot.”

4. Mike Conte on Responsible Betting ([38:02]):
   “Action Network reminds you: Please gamble responsibly.”

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and expert opinions shared during the episode, providing listeners with a thorough understanding of the Kentucky Derby betting landscape as explored by Chad Millman, Simon Hunter, and Mike Conte.