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A.J. Andrews
What's up, y'all? I'm A.J. andrews, pro softball player, sports analyst and the first woman to win a Rawlings Gold Glove on my new podcast, Dropping Diamonds. We dive headfirst into the world of softball by sharing powerful stories, insights and conversations that inspire and empower. It's time to drop bombs and diamonds. Dropping diamonds with A.J. andrews is an Athletes Unlimited Softball league production in partnership with iHeart Women's Sports and Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. Listen to dropping diamonds with AJ Andrews on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
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This is Mel Reed, Elpida tour winner and six time Ladies European Tour winner.
Kira K. Dixon
And Kira K. Dixon, NBC sports reporter and host.
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And we've got a new podcast, Quiet Please. With Mel and Kira.
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We are bringing you spicy takes on sports and pop culture, some interviews with incredible people who have figured out how to make golf their superpower.
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Tickets are on sale now, y'all for our 2025 iHeart Country Festival presented by Capital One, happening Saturday, May 3rd at the Moody center in Austin, Texas. Don't miss your chance to see Brooks and Dunn, Thomas Rhett, Rascal Flatt, Cole Swindell, Sam Hunt, Megan Maroney, Bailey Zimmerman, Nate Smith. Tickets are on sale now@ticketma master.com welcome.
Chad Millman
To the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. We are live from our Tommy John home studios. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
Simon Hunter
Hello Chad. It's mid March. What are we talking? We talking baseball? We talking Premier League? What are we talking today, brother?
Chad Millman
Oh, you're a teaser. You know what we're talking about. It's the high holy week of the NFL off season here at Action Network. March Madness has arrived and the first round of the NCAA tournament starts this Thursday with 16 games and then 16 more on Friday. It's a gambling extravaganza for contest college hoops fans all weekend long. March Madness, always a warm spot in my heart. Just because, you know, my bestselling book the Odds was based entirely on tracking college basketball betters through the college basketball season. Today we're going to get ready for all things betting for the big dance. To close today's show like we do during the NFL season, we've got our director of research, Evan Abrams, who will deliver the last word with his favorite tournament betting trends. But right now, a man who I would have profiled in the odds if he had been alive back then. We welcome longtime contributor to our Big Bets on Campus podcast, a college hoops fanatic, one third of the popular group three man weave, the University of Missouri's finest. Welcome to the show, Jim Root.
Jim Root
Here we go. Let's do it. How young do you think I am, Chad? You don't think I was alive, but.
Chad Millman
Like I wanted to make you feel good.
Jim Root
Okay, I'll take it.
Chad Millman
I'll take you got so much grief before we came on the air because you're from like a town outside Milwaukee that Matt Mitchell happens to know. And so he was excited to rip it. And so I just wanted to make you feel a little bit better and you know, de age you a little bit.
Jim Root
Needed the good vibes. I appreciate that. Yeah, it's been a busy, you know, what, 36 hours since the bracket dropped. But we're getting closer to the end of the tunnel of content and getting to games. So ready to chop it up with you guys. I feel like my takes are warmed up, they're sharpened, ready to, to really dig in here.
Chad Millman
Well, you have no choice. By the way, Jim will be joining us in Chicago for our live Elite 8 show, which I'll share more details about in one moment. If you are listening this to this in Illinois. Big news, folks. The Favorites podcast presented by bet365 is now live in my home state of Illinois. And new bet365 customers, including those in Illinois, get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code FAVORITES, deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary at BET365, especially in Illinois, must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions, restrictions apply. As I mentioned, Jim will be joining us for our Elite Eight March Madness Games event on Saturday, March 29th at Joe's on Weed in the beautiful city of Chicago, Illinois. Free event. Free Drinks free live show with Stuckey Jim. RSVP to reserve your spot, follow the link in this episode's description or Google favorite podcast Event Chicago and rsvp. The site will pop right up. We're excited to have Jim on the show. Excited to have Jim and the three man weave crew join us for the event in Chicago. Jim, from your point of view, you have been a college basketball betting expert for a very long time. I know deeply how connected you are both to betting and college basketball. Does this tournament feel especially top heavy?
Jim Root
Yes, 100%. I typically am trying to find the underdogs I like most and I'm setting up my final four with absolutely no more than 21 seeds. Who else can I get in the mix to get up there? And I keep coming back to probably 31 seeds and at that point I'm forcing somebody that's not a fourth one seed to get in there. These four teams are so good and analytically they've separated themselves. Whether you look at Ken Palm, Bart Torvic, wherever you want your predictive rankings to come from, they've separated there. And even further down the bracket, it's top heavy. I'll give a shout out to Will Warren. He's got a great website writing about college hoops. But the top like 25 teams are better than a standard top 25. And so that means your four seeds, your five seeds, perhaps that's going to lead to less upsets in that part of the bracket too. I hope not. We want a little early chaos. We'd love to see that some, some March Madness magic. But I think it's worth monitoring and potentially we do get sort of chalk heavy bracket as we go through this big dance.
Chad Millman
If you were putting in your the three top seeds to make it, I'm assuming it's Duke, Florida, Auburn, Houston is out or am I making an ass out of you and me?
Jim Root
Yeah. How dare you, Chad. No, I, I, I would have Houston in there actually. I, I. Interesting. I mean there is some question around Jaywin Roberts's ankle and they have got definitely the hardest 89 draw with Gonzaga waiting second round. I think all the math will tell you that's a really, really tough game for him. The one I don't have right now. I don't. Should I spoil my final four? Is that, am I allowed to do that?
Chad Millman
Do whatever you want, man. Listen, we're a free flowing show. Do whatever you need to do.
Jim Root
The one I don't have is Florida and that hurts me because every time I watch them I Just can't stop, like, professing how good they are. But they become such a darling. Everybody's picking them in the title, like espn. Every show right after, they're like, well, it's got to be Florida. They just won the sec. Why can't they win the national tit? I have some questions there. I mean, they've got great depth, but if their three guards aren't making shots, the perimeter can get a little bit dicey. I've seen them get punked early in games a couple times. Georgia did it to him. My Missouri Tigers did it to him in Gainesville. And then Todd Golden's never won a tournament game. That's not like an eliminator. It's not impossible to go win the tournament, but you'd like to have one under your belt before you have to go win six, including two on the biggest stage. So Florida's the one I'm barely leaving out. You could probably leave Auburn out given the way their performance has been lately. I just don't really like anybody else in that region, so I kind of end up defaulting to the Tigers there. And then Duke's just kind of otherworldly right now. As long as Flag is healthy.
Chad Millman
You didn't give us your Final Four, though, because you gave us three of the number ones. And so now that was good. Like we're going to foreshadow and tease for a little bit later in the show. Simon, before we came on earlier today, you were dropping hints about amongst your professional gambling group chat, like teams that were starting to get talked about. Can you share?
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's I would say just from the top. The group I talk to are the guys I follow for college basketball are old, like average age 72, like legit old dudes. And they are very about that Big east action. They love the Big east. Like that is, even though it's not what it used to be. They're always biased towards it and, you know, obviously it's worked out for them.
Jim Root
Right?
Simon Hunter
The UConn has just been an incredible run. That was a team they were biased to. This year really is St. John's and I would love to get your perspective of it where everyone's talking. Duke, Florida, these guys love not only the way that St. John's is playing, but the fact that their coach has been there before with multiple different programs and has done it before. Is that a team that is no longer a sleeper because they're so talked about and beloved by people? Are they still, as you view as a better a team that not enough people are giving respect to because, you know, St. John's is being painted as having a really tough road to getting to the finals.
Chad Millman
He's also the same age as all the people in that group. Text.
Jim Root
Exactly. No, I, I'm a buyer of St. John's I think that region is so loaded. It's probably my, my favorite one. Well, not, maybe not my favorite one, but it's my favorite two, it's my favorite three, probably my favorite four of all those seed lines. So that makes it really tough to pick. But St. John's they, you just know they're never going to lay an egg like you're getting an A plus effort from them. Patino's such a great motivator. The defense is absurd. The floor is really high. Like, I don't think this team is remotely prone to an upset because you're just, you're not going to get a stinker on that end and you have the ceiling outcomes where if they make shots like that, that's the variance for them. Actually have a game where the threes go in, they're going to look incredible. They're just so good at everything else. Like the turnover margin, the rebounding margin. They win those. They, they stress you on the perimeter more than you're typically used to because they've got size and athleticism and they're physical. It's kind of the handsy Patino approach on the perimeter. I'm sure those Big east guys love seeing that. I, I think they're just, they're high floor and then you get them in the Sweet 16 against, whether it's Texas Tech or whoever, and then Florida and the Elite eight. If they make seven or eight threes, this team is unbeatable. So I totally buy them as a.
Simon Hunter
So would you throw a Little bet on 25 to 1 to win the title?
Jim Root
Yeah, yeah, I don't mind that. I mean, it's. Analytically, they haven't performed that well. Like the fact that they're not inside the top 10 at Ken Palms, a little surprising given their record. But I think part of that is they didn't smack teams in the, in the non conference the way maybe they would have hoped to. Like they didn't beat teams by 40, they were winning by 25 instead. And at that point I. That's kind of a diminishing returns for me in terms of predictive value with big teams. So I buy that.
Chad Millman
You know, you just mentioned St. John's I feel like it looks like they're the last two seed on the two line. Right. And now they've got to travel cross country to go play in a game. Do you think they would have been better off being the first three seed and getting to go play in New Jersey?
Jim Root
Yeah, I, I think they would have adored being in Newark. Even if it's Duke, they're playing there. All the one seeds are good, so there's not like a big downgrade there. And the crowd they would have going Providence to Newark. Everybody talked about it last year with UConn, not having to get on a flight. Like if you're just busing everywhere you need to go from New York, there is an advantage in that. And I think just with the crowd and with the, the travel ease, they probably would have preferred that. And I always think it would be fun if the selection committee released one through 68 and every team got to pick their spot in order, you know, like if they would have said, well, yeah, we'll take the three in the east over the two out west and kind of let the chips fall where they may.
Chad Millman
Isn't it amazing how Pitino does it? Everywhere he goes, within moments, he's got this team turned around. And moments to me is a season or two. Right. It doesn't matter what the school has been, he's always done it. As a guy who watches so much college basketball, Jim, what have you seen from Pitino? The way he coaches, you mentioned the way he motivates that it just isn't replicable from other coaches that only he can execute on these quick turnarounds.
Jim Root
Yeah, the, the, the way he coaches effort is really stunning to me. I mean, the guys play their tails off and there's a few other coaches that I think do it relatively consistently. Like Buzz Williams has this shaka smart kind of has it the way the guys play defensively, but then he pairs it with like really smart offensive basketball and they can't shoot, but they know it. Like they're fairly self aware and they get good shots. And like, all right, what are we, what are we actually good at? Let's not lean into a weakness. Let's. Let's really dig into a strength. And I don't think other coaches necessarily have that. And then just there's some intrinsic parts of it too, of like instilling confidence, letting guys like really go and be who they are as players. I think other times when maybe a guy transfers from one coach to another, he's not sure where his role is going to fall, how, how he should play within a new system. And it seems like Patino just gets these guys comfortable immediately. And that's, that's hard to do. Especially you brought in some guys with high usage rates at previous schools. Davon Smith, Kadiah Richmond, they've taken less shots this year, used less possessions and still. Still seem very comfortable. And winning helps, but you know, it's kind of a. What came first, the chicken or the egg there.
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's interesting. Calipari too, when he was recruiting at Kentucky, he would always talk about and you would always hear the players talk about. He's not promised me a starting gig, he's not promising me high usage rates. He's just telling me of how he is going to use me and making me feel good. And I like seeing like these old head coaches who have become so adept at changing the way they coach and communicating with players and then succeeding. I mean, look, Arkansas too, look, Calipari's taking a team to the tournament again. It would be a dream to get Calipari and Rick Pitino, you know, a throwback to 90s college basketball. Early 2000s college basketball royalty, going at each other again. I think I haven't asked you a question yet. I think both of these guys, I'm just pontificating, you know, because it's, because it's what I want to do right now.
Jim Root
I'll beats.
Chad Millman
I think these guys are tailor made for the social media age.
Jim Root
Yeah, I think what's. I think there's some coaches that have seen the changing of the tides and have been like, I don't want to be a part of this version. And those two have adapted so smoothly. I mean, I used to always call Calipari like the car salesman. Like he can kind of figure out the pitch to anybody. And even as generations change, he can scale that pitch to whoever he needs to. He's a good talker, that's for sure. And Pitino clearly has that gear too. And that helps with recruiting, it helps with motivating, it helps with game planning. I, I have been very impressed and yeah, it would be funny to see Kentucky, Louisville rivalry reborn with those coaches, only it's St. John's Arkansas instead. Different shades of red in that one, I think.
Chad Millman
I think calling him a car salesman diminishes his skill because that feels like a pejorative.
Jim Root
That's true, that's true.
Chad Millman
These guys, you put them on social media like Pitino this year, the locker room, the way those clips have come out, that has been glorious. Those are perfect recruiting tools to get new players coming in Simon, you're shaking your head. I feel like you've fallen in love with Rick Patino this year.
Simon Hunter
I have. And this is someone that legitimately hated this guy. Like, really?
Jim Root
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
He rubbed me the wrong way, brother. Like, his whole thing of being like, I'm the. You're all idiots. You know, obviously, we know what he did off the court. I don't really hold that against him. It was more about his Persona on the court. Now I've come full three, six, where I'm like, oh, talk your shit, brick. Like, you're that dude. You're running the show. And the fact that he's turned St. John's around, I mean, I. I don't think in my lifetime, Chad, I don't think they were good in my lifetime. Like, that was all before my really coming into college basketball, them being relevant and especially being the Northeast, you always hear about them, and they should be able to recruit. They're the team of New York. All this nonsense never mattered. And they bring in the right coach, he turns it around. That's why we love. I mean, you're talking about, you know, coaches going to different places. Like, it's. It's. It's one of my favorite parts of college basketball is how important the head coach is, because it is just five starters, right? And you get the right guy in there, he brings in the right talent, and he could change everything. And, you know, you're talking Calipari, I think anyone can remember, right? New Hampshire. Was that what the school was? They turned around and then went, UMass. UMass. And they went to Memphis. And it's like, these schools that are irrelevant, you never hear about. That's what great coaches can do, right? They can go there and make them somebody. So, yeah, I know this is becoming a heavy St. John's podcast, but it's like every professional better I've talked to in the last three, four days, they just keep bringing them up, and they just keep saying, like, this is the exact type of team and guy that pulls off a run on us in a year where. I don't know if you have the same view of it, Jim, but it really is no. 1. There is no guarantee. Like, we've had UConn the last two years being kind of the guaranteed team. This year really is pick your poison. Like, everyone's gonna look like an idiot, and someone's gonna look like they're really smart at the end of it, because it is all so many random teams. Is there really a team that you know, to you personally that's jumping out that no one's talking about, or is it kind of like you just said, Is it the four or five really good teams and the rest are kind of trailing?
Jim Root
Yeah, that's. That's more what it's been. It's basically like we have four UCONNs this year. Like, if Yukon had had really elite competition last year, maybe they would have run into some, some trouble in the Final Four. And Zach Edie tried, but you know, that Purdue team just wasn't quite on their level. I, I'd see like if we get a Florida vs. Duke final or Houston vs. Duke semifinal, like that, that could go in any direction. Just clash of the Titans kind of thing further down, like the twos and three seeds, maybe somebody can win. Like we got Tennessee just knocked off Auburn on a neutral court. Okay, maybe Auburn's a little bit vulnerable. Florida lost at Georgia lost a home to Missouri. Like, these teams aren't invincible, but I think when, you know, push comes to shove on the biggest stage, we're going to see them at their best, their best versions. And I would be pretty surprised if any of those 41 seeds went down before Sweet 16 and even Elite 8, I think would surprise me a little bit.
Chad Millman
So we just talked a lot about St. John's but also in that region, Gonzaga, Georgia. And you talked about earlier in the show. St. John's is not a team that any of their predictive analytics, sort of what the selection committee is looking at to make decisions, were anywhere near the top 10. Gonzaga, nearly all of their predictive analytics were in the top 10. They just didn't have a lot of good wins. We're talking about Thursday games. Is Gonzaga a team that could be one of your favorite picks for Thursday? If not, who are your favorite picks for Thursday?
Jim Root
Yeah, this is. This one's kind of odd. I actually lean towards Georgia there. Despite as good as Gonzaga's been and Georgia on the spread, not I will advance Gonzaga, but you know, that spreads around a touchdown that's a little too much. Georgia's played a similar kind of copy of Gonzaga. Like Florida is somewhat modeled after the Gonzaga approach of two bigs play up and down, really bludgeon the rim. And Georgia got up by 25 against Florida. Now they let him all the way back in, had to win in the final minute. But I still think it's. It's representative of what they can do against that kind of approach. They've got a ton of physicality. They've got like six different bigs they can rotate Against EK and Gonzaga's front line. So leaning away from there, Memphis is one of my favorite first round bets. They are an underdog in a 512 game as the 5 seed. That's going to catch a lot of eyes. But the big thing for me there is Memphis is poor in predictive analytics because they're terrible against bad teams. They are the opposite of a computer tricker where when they play somebody they're a 20 point favorite against, they win by seven and when they're a 30 point favorite, they win by seven again. They just don't really blow teams out. But if you put a team across from them that they view as their equal and top 25, top 50 ish competition, that's when Memphis shines. And I think we'll see that against Colorado State. Maybe a little chip on the shoulder. We're underdogs against the 12 seed. After all we did in the non conference, they played one of the best schedules of anybody in the entire country, flew all over the country. So I'm not worried about them going all the way across to Seattle for this game. I think it sets up well for, for Penny Hardaway to play the disrespect card in the locker room and, and you get a, a Memphis win there in the first round.
Chad Millman
Well, look, Memphis, a lot of people would argue, especially because of their injury issues, probably shouldn't be higher than an eight seed. And so the five seed is a little bit of a surprise. Also, I like that you're picking Memphis because That is the 125 matchup that if I had to bet was going to be the one where the majority of bracketeers are choosing the 12th.
Jim Root
Yeah. And it would mathematically make sense for them to do it. Like I couldn't hold it against anybody to say, look, Colorado State's favored. Why wouldn't I try to get some upset points if my, my pool has it? But yeah, I just, I think the way, you know, the stat that I keep going back to for that game is if you filter Bart Torvik's website for games just against top 50 opponents, Memphis is 25th and Colorado State's 100th and they're both playing a top 50 opponent here and yet the team that's way, way lower in that kind of a stratosphere of of games is the favorite. Yeah, I'll at least take the points there. And again, I think Memphis wins outright.
Chad Millman
Who else are you eyeing for Thursday?
Jim Root
Some of my stronger leans here are totals. So can I go in that direction? We accept those right Sides.
Chad Millman
It's a betting podcast. We're not interested in just sort of the bad bets that you can parlay into your favorite team. We want the best bets with the best edges, no matter the market.
Jim Root
Beautiful. I can do that. Okay. Two totals I like quite a bit. High Point and Purdue the over. I'm actually surprised this one hasn't gone up from 153 and a half. I thought the market would kind of jump on this one. The tempo is the question mark. Is it going to be fast enough? But I think the efficiency is going to be ridiculous in this game. I don't really see see how either team gets a stop. The, the, the problem that High Point had in their rare games where they did have issues was a really dominant ball screen point guard operator that's comfortable in the mid range against their drop coverage. And Braden Smith's probably the best point guard in that system in the entire country. I think he'll light them up both as a scorer and a passer. But then the other end, high point, top 25 offense, they get downhill. They've got guys that can get to the rim. They've got a great offensive rebounder in Bodo. Bodo in the paint. And Purdue's rim defense is non existent. Like one of the worst in the country. Despite being a Big Ten team, they don't have any shot blocking. I think that's going to be a real problem. And you just see points back and forth. The other big total, I like Clemson and McNeese the under in that one and this one is really tempo based where I think both will slow each other down. They kind of press to slow the game down. Like Clemson doesn't even try to get steals in their press. They're just like making you use the shot clock, get far down into it and have to take a tough one with five or 10 seconds on the clock. And if you, you know, extrapolate that over the course of a game where both teams are doing that to each other, I think the possession count comes in way under what's projected here and 134 and a half. 134. I've taken quite a bit of that as well.
Chad Millman
Do you have any picks, games, sides, totals that you love for Friday? Because don't forget we're doing this Tuesday. People get 48 hours to sort of digest. So Friday is included here. Nothing has happened yet.
Jim Root
Yeah, that's. I, I don't even think I was doing that intentionally, going with a bunch of Thursday games there. But the more I've investigated the St. Mary's Vanderbilt game. I end up leaning more and more towards the Gales. I just think they are so good at making games. Their style and this is a really big clash of styles. Vanderbilt wants to run, they want to press, they want to get up and down. And St. Mary is like they see Gonzaga three times a year and they make Gonzaga play in the mud, they slog it up. And I think Randy Bennett can do that to Vanderbilt. Vandy played Drake early in the year, which is a somewhat comparable team where they want to play super duper slow. And although Vandy forced 20 turnovers, Drake still won that game by 10 because they dominated the glass. I think St. Mary's can do that, that so I laid some three and a half. I think it's more four in the market now, but I think that's an okay price as well. St. Mary's and let's see, one other Friday bet. How about Oklahoma? I think Yukon's maybe gotten a little overvalued in the market just because of how good they've been in the tournament the last two years. The name value of Danny Hurley. But these two teams are like coin flip in every analytical ranking. So you're going to give me four and a half points and I think Oklahoma's got pretty easy ways to score, getting downhill off the dribble. UConn fouls a ton. Oklahoma gets to the free throw line. I think they're going to live the line, get some easy points. And Oklahoma has not lost a game to a non conference opponent. They're like six and one on neutral floors against really good teams. Their only loss was to Kentucky by one in the SEC tournament on a buzzer beater. I think they're at the very least in that game and could knock off UConn.
Chad Millman
We still haven't gotten your third Final Four. I do want to do that after this. Simon Back in 1977, Milwaukee's own Marquette University was the toast of college basketball, winning the NCAA championship under the leadership of charismatic head coach Al McGuire. It was this week, 48 years ago, that McGuire got asked if he'd be wearing a luxury jacket on the sidelines for the tournament. To which McGuire respond and absolutely, you gotta wear the blue blazer when you go to the Big Dance. And just like that, this beloved tournament became known as the big dance. Coach McGuire knew the importance of looking his best and understood that when you're comfortable, you're. You perform at your best. Just like our beloved sponsor, Tommy john. Go from first round upset to diaper dandy@tommyjohn.com favorites and punch your ticket to the big dance of high performance and casual essentials. And with a special sale for our listeners, cutting down the nets in flexible, breathable comfort just got even easier. Simon, why will you be wearing Tommy John in 2025?
Simon Hunter
Because comfort is king.
Chad Millman
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Jim Root
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Simon Hunter
First player you think of, Chad, when you hear Marquette? Is it D. Wade? Jimmy Butler?
Chad Millman
It's definitely D. Wade. But you know, I'm an old head, so like when I think about Marquette, I do think about Al McGuire because my sort of seminal moments of college basketball were Al McGuire and Dick Enberg doing Saturday afternoon games on NBC. And so, you know, don't forget Al McGuire basically retired after that 77 championship and became a the original Dicky V. He was amazing as a broadcaster. So I actually tend to think of Al McGuire when I think of Marquette University.
Simon Hunter
So that's why I was so glad I am biased. I think the best era was that 2000s, 2010 era. So for me, Travis Deener, man, that's, that's my guy from Marquette. Like I, I miss those days of having guys like him that are there forever. Huge personality, scrappy. I, I definitely miss that era of Marquette.
Chad Millman
Jim's a Milwaukee guy. Who do you think from our cat?
Jim Root
Yeah, it's probably Wade. I remember where I was when he went for the triple double to beat Kentucky to go to the Final Four. So that, that has stuck with me. But dinner's a great, a great name pulled too. I mean he was on that team and stuck around and they were just, they won that the T basketball tournament that happens in the summer and Diener hit a buzzer beater or late game winner in that when he was still one of the old heads on the team. And it was great to see him back out there with a bunch of like guys 10 years younger and still contributing.
Chad Millman
I also would like to say that when D. Wade had that run in the tournament, I was covering the tournament in San Antonio for ESPN and I went out, I finished my story and like a lot of times when you're writing some of these things, you pre write the stories because the deadlines are so tight that you kind of got to turn them in early and hope that they come close to what your narrative is. So I turned in my story and probably needed like, you know, if things went right, needed to change a couple hundred words. It wasn't about Marquette, it was about the games I was covering in San Antonio. I went out that night and got so drunk with friend of the podcast Seth Wickersham and current ESPN college basketball or college football writer Pete Thammel, who was not at ESPN at the time. I couldn't function the next day. Like I couldn't get out of bed. I was puking everywhere. I stood in the shower for like 25 minutes hoping everything would clear up. And then I got a call from my editor. I needed to rewrite the whole freaking story and I could not, I could not even see straight. So whenever I think about D. Wade in that Final Four run, I think about covering the NCAA tournament in San Antonio.
Jim Root
How he ruined your life for a day.
Chad Millman
Everything got ruined.
Jim Root
That's a nightmare.
Chad Millman
Fucking terrible. Simon, I didn't know if you wanted to ask a question. If not, I'll, I'll.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I got the one. I can't believe in ass yet. Give me the underdogs you like outright either. Thursday, Friday, whatever you got.
Jim Root
First one, UC San Diego. And I know this isn't, you know, a crazy one. Yeah, trendy. And it's only plus two and a half, so we're not going nuts with an outright type dog here. But I just, I love this team all season and I like the matchup. They, they mix in a bunch of zone which is going to keep, keep the Michigan seven footers away from the rim a little bit. Maybe you get beat up on the offensive glass, but I think first shot defense will be pretty good there. And they're, they're going to force, they could force 20 turnovers in this game. Michigan's really sloppy with the ball. The, the turnover rate defensively for UC San Diego, super high. They've got the guy Hayden Gray that leads the country in steel rate. So easy buckets going the other way. And then Neewa Tate Jones, their, their conference player of the year point guard, kind of a 6, 6 jumbo point guard, new Zealander he gets a lot of headlines and he should. He' fun guy to watch here, but they got a shooter named Tyler Magai that is like almost Goliesque in his like total indiscriminate bombing. Like he will.
Simon Hunter
His last name's A. Magai.
Jim Root
Yes, Tyler Magai.
Simon Hunter
I love him.
Jim Root
It looks like McGee, but. Yeah, pronounced Magai.
Chad Millman
He's now. He's now Tyler Simon's guy.
Simon Hunter
He's my guy.
Jim Root
Yes, yes. My guy. My guy. It's just a, it's a fantastic nickname to go with. But yeah, he'll take 12 or 15 threes if they let him, like really quick release. And if he hits six or seven, maybe he won't hit 10 like Goalkee. But he hits six or seven against the reigning Big Ten tournament champion, I think people are going to take a little bit of notice. So UC San Diego is one there for sure and then right next to them in the bracket. I like Yale. There's some situational stuff that's, that's brutal for them with having played Sunday and then they have to go and play at altitude on Thursday in Denver. I don't love that, but the matchup with Texas A and M doesn't scare me that much. You know, Texas A&M's huge strength getting all over the offensive glass. They try to win the extras, win the possession battle and Yale can compete there. It's a really good defensive rebounding team. They have not seen anyone quite like Texas A and M, but I think back to nine years ago when Yale beat Baylor in the first round. They still got the same coach. They were somewhat shorter in the front court, but they were physical and they kept an awesome offensive rebounding team in Baylor at bay. I mean, they didn't, you know, shut them down in that area, but they were able to handle them and then they won outright. I think they can do the same thing to, to Texas A and M here. Texas A&M's guards will take a bunch of bad shots. They'll chuck and Yale takes better shots and has better shooters. So I'll ride with, with Yale there.
Chad Millman
Got a local West Hartford kid on the Yale basketball team this year. Jim, I kind of feel like you just mentioned Michigan and UC San Diego. I feel like Michigan got fucked. Like, how are they a five seed the way they ran through the tournament? And not only a five seed, but they're the last team playing on Sunday and now they've got to travel cross country, play a late Thursday game. Even if you think they're primed for an upset because they've got some weaknesses. They're not a perfect team. Being a five seed. When you beat Wisconsin twice and Wisconsin's a three seed, do you feel like that was a fair seating by the selection committee?
Jim Root
Not really. The one part of it is just like you go in knowing they don't care about the Big Ten tournament title game. It's like their pencils down, feet up, having a cocktail for completing the bracket already. And that's unfortunate. It sucks for Michigan because they clearly earned a higher spot by winning that game. But it's unfortunately what happened. And really I thought the committee did a bad job with this entire Denver site. Like you've got a ton of teams that played on Sunday that have to go to altitude and like VCU played Sunday, they have to go to play byu, who's an altitude comfortable team. Wisconsin played Sunday, has to go play Montana, who plays in an altitude conference on short rest. Like, they really gave some teams some tough draws and part of that is it's dumb at this point to have two western sites when none of the western teams are good. So you get end up shipping a bunch of eastern teams out there in the first round. But I thought they did an especially bad job just kind of fumbling the bag with, with where they put those teams.
Chad Millman
They did an especially bad job with the tournament overall. Like it's been a controversy since the second, you know, North Carolina got in. But a lot of the seating, a lot of the games, a lot of the potential matchups, it's kind of awful. I feel disgusted by all of it. It. We're gonna have Evan on in a minute and he's got a great stat. Last year, teams that received more than half the spread bets went 68% against the spread. That's an ROI of over 30%. The previous 18 tournaments, teams that were that public had gone under. The public teams had gone under 48% against the spread. Have recent changes to college basketball made chalk success more inevitable? We talk like this is a very top heavy tournament. Like do you see the market catching up this year or is it going to continue to be the way it was last year?
Jim Root
I would hope and expect the market catches up a little bit and makes some of the underdogs a little more viable. But there's a chance and with the, you know, I mentioned earlier the strength of the top 25 or so teams, that part of that is the shifting of the sport with the portal and you know, the best mid major players can immediately go beyond a better team and Get a bag. And of course there are guys that transfer down and there are stars in that area as well like Colorado State's best players from Colorado. Like he transferred down there and he's an all American caliber guy. But those are going to be fewer and far between compared to the internal development that mid majors often were able to do. So I worry that maybe there will be fewer upsets going forward. It does help this year that we got a lot of the best teams won their mid major conference tournaments. That gives me hope for the strength of the 12s and 13s and 14 seeds. But man, yeah it does feel like there is starting to be a shift a little more closer and closer where the talent is on those top teams. Maybe, maybe this is being the last year of the COVID year will help where the, you know, all those fifth year veterans going up to a power conference team won't be there anymore. But that could still be the case this year with that, that 68 stat. I hope that's not the case. Come on, don't let the public feast that much.
Chad Millman
Well look related to that. Who are the moneyline favorites that you can't see losing the first two days early?
Jim Root
Like I don't think Akron has a chance against Arizona. Like the, the style is a problem. They want to run, they want to get up and down and Arizona's like good, let's do this. That, that sounds great to us. They played Samford early in the year. That's also a team that wants to run. They won by 30. That's not an exact matchup. Exact similar comparison. But I think that's, that's part of it. And in Michigan State, Bryant, I know it's like 15 points but that one would stun me. And Bryant's entire like identity is being bigger and more athletic than their mid major brethren. They got a bunch of down transfers and then you go against a huge physical Michigan State team that can just like match and exceed everything Bryant brings to the table. That, that worries me. Matt Cox said it best on our podcast. He's like to pull off some of these upsets, I think you got to be different. You can't be better at what the team does across from you. And both of those are matchups where they're like a similar style, not quite a clone but of the favorite and the favorites just better at their game.
Simon Hunter
If you're in a survivor pool, who are you going with first?
Jim Root
Arizona's probably one think they might struggle against Oregon in that next round. Oregon's just a tricky tournament team and then boom, you run into Duke. So you're not going to need to hang on to Arizona for a while. Oregon could be one again with Duke lurking right there. Kentucky, I think would be a good one. Troy could be a somewhat tough matchup because they're athletic, but Kentucky got Lamont Butler in there and their draw is kind of tricky. I think the second round matchup, whether it's Illinois, Texas or Xavier, is tricky, so Kentucky's probably a good one to go with early. I think they can lose to anyone except Troy and just get him through the first round and then you can throw them out of your survivor pool.
Chad Millman
All right, in a sec we're going to, we're going to get to Jim's final team in his final four and we'll bring in Evan. Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting? Simon knows I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell you about edgeboost, the financial platform that pays you cash back to wager. Edgeboost is an online bank account that pays you for every deposit. With the Edge Boost Visa debit card, you receive up to half a percent cash. Buy cash back on all your sportsbook, daily fantasy site and casino transactions. That's free money back in your pocket for doing what you're already doing. It's a no brainer. Plus, your Edge Boost debit card starts with a $250,000 daily limit and will never be declined for gambling activity. They've got built in tools to help you stay responsible and there are absolutely no hidden fees or minimum required balances. So stop leaving money on the table. Visit edgeboost Bet to sign up. If you use promo code favorites and deposit $25, you'll receive a $25 deposit match plus tier 2 status for faster pink bank deposits and more cash back. That's Edge boost.bet promo code Favorites all right, we've talked about Auburn, we've talked about Duke, we've talked about Houston. That is 75% of your final four, Jim. We can't keep the people hanging any longer. Finish it off.
Jim Root
Yeah, I said this was my the west was my favorite 2St. John's my favorite 3 Texas Tech. My favorite 4 Maryland. I'm going with Texas Tech and maybe there's some stubbornness for me here because I picked them to the Final Four in the preseason when they were like barely a top 25 team and now they're sitting here seventh and Ken Pound I'm like, why would I turn my back on myself on past Jim at this point, considering how good they've been? The concern is, is the injury stuff, the nagging injuries for Darian Williams, Chance McMillan, two guys that sat up in the Big 12 tournament. I think they're going to be close enough to full strength this first weekend and hopefully by the second weekend when they would play a St. John's or potentially a Florida, I think they'll be closer to 100% by then. And I just like the Coach here. Grant McCasland's one. Everywhere he's been. I like the versatility of the lineup. They can play big, they can play small, they can flood the court with shooting, they can put a defense first lineup out there. I think they've got a lot of different ways to win. And when you're playing Florida and St. John's back to back, two very different teams, I think you've got to be that kind of a chameleon. And, and I believe Texas Tech can. Can get it done and be the 1 non 1 seed in my final four.
Chad Millman
Don't turn your back on past Jim. That would be like turning your back on your roots.
Jim Root
Oh, there he is. There he is.
Chad Millman
You get it?
Jim Root
Yeah.
Chad Millman
You get it?
Jim Root
Oh, yeah.
Chad Millman
Oh, my God. Even Simon laughs. Simon, a lot of times when I, you know, indulge myself with these terrible dad jokes, I'm. I'm looking at the script and so I don't see everyone's faces. But this time I wanted to see everyone's faces when I said it, because Simon oftentimes does not laugh. He just sort of crinkles his eyes a little bit. And so I don't know if he's responding this time. He chuckled a little bit. And that.
Simon Hunter
That was good, brother. I'm tough. It gotta be actually good for me to laugh. I can't fake it anymore with you.
Chad Millman
Six, seven years in. Wow. You know, I was gonna say something, but leave it at that. All right, let's bring in director of research Evan Abrams. He's gonna give us the last word with some betting trends to know this weekend. Evan, so glad to have you back.
Elf Beauty
What's up, guys? What's up, Jim? I. I got a bunch of stuff here. Yeah, I got a bunch of stuff here. So I'm gonna roll through it. Stop me down when you want me to, but just a bunch of different information. We're gonna start with free thr that on Action Network, kind of about the same concept. So check it out there for more info. But basically teams who hit at least 75% from the free throw line cash at a 55% rate, ATS about about 6% return on investment. Basically you rise, raise that free throw percentage for A team to 76%, the ROI goes up to 13% and it's 77%. It's actually over 20%. 87, 52 and 2 ATS in the NCAA tournament since 2006. Hit your free throws, you tend to cover the two teams. I think you probably want to highlight Wisconsin. They lead the nation almost 83%. That's actually the second best free throw percentage almost ever for a tournament team. Villanova 2022 made it to the Final Four. And I think the other one worth noting is Gonzaga at about 80%, second best free throw rate for an eight seater higher behind only 2021. Oral Roberts, who has a 15 seed, actually upset the two and the seven. So pretty decent category there. The other teams to potentially look for Lipscomb good from free throw, Arizona, Michigan State and Colorado State. So just an interesting trend to kind of talk about and kind of works year to year as well. So let me keep rolling here. Every year people kind of talk about betting blindly on these underdogs, kind of having a little fun. Well, it's actually worked lately. So round of 64 blindly betting 11 seeds or higher on the money line has turned a profit each of the last four tournaments. And since 2012, 100 better. Almost 300 games would be up about 17 return on investment, almost 4, 800 bucks profiting in eight of the 12 years. So some people out there like to put 10 bucks, 20 bucks, whatever it is, on all of these underdogs. And root. It's actually worked lately, which is fun.
Chad Millman
And this one is told us that. Yeah, you just told us that last year was such a chalky.
Elf Beauty
I know, but just completely betting money lines because a lot of these big upsets tend to probably cover most of the other teams. So you're rooting for like a 10 to 1, a 12 to 1, which has actually hit lately, you know, especially when these 16s are beating one. So to me that's probably what's done at the last few years, but nonetheless pretty, pretty crazy. And this one, this one's directly for you, Chad, since we talked about that for NFL in terms of betting like the favorites entering the season. Well, Dating back to 1990, we've only seen two teams win the title having odds at 25 to 1 or higher entering the tournament. They were Both Connecticut in 2011, 25 to 1. In 2014 at 100 to 1. So since UConn in 2014, every champion has had has been under 20 to 1 entering the tournament. So right now that would only be six teams. Duke, Florida, Auburn, Houston, Alabama and Tennessee. So obviously could get bucked. But those are the six teams right now that would work over the last decade of tournaments. So. So we will see.
Chad Millman
I thought when you said I, I thought when you said this is just for me, you were going to reference like the 1979 DePaul Blue Demons were number one in the country heading into the tournament and yet they lost to who in March Madness. That's, that's what I thought you were going to say.
Elf Beauty
Unfortunately, it wasn't an Alm Maguire stat, but we, we'll have to move on from there. This one is actually, I actually looked up while you guys were talking about St. John. I had seen it in a few different places. But. So we have 36 Final Four teams since 2015. 30. 34 of those 36 had an effective field goal percentage of 50% or higher. All 36 shot at least 32.7% from three and 33 of 36 shot just around 70% or higher from the free throw line. St. John's doesn't cover any of those three. So a lot of their metrics seem to say that they have to get there differently. Like they drive a lot, they don't shoot the three extremely well. So that's just one thing to be that I'm interested in. And the other one, this is a Ken Palm stat that's everywhere. But in the 64 team era, there have been 39 teams to enter the tournament as a one or two seed that weren't ranked in the preseason AP poll. They have zero Final Fours, that is St. John's and Michigan State this year. So those are the two teams to potentially worry about. And then I, I got two more for area. This one I thought was kind of fascinating with Florida. So Florida actually entered the regular season at 60 to 1 odds to win it all and is now obviously a 1 seed. So we have data since 2009 on preseason odds. We've had 12 teams listed at 30 to 1 or higher in the preseason and end up with a 1 seed. Only one made the final four, Gonzaga in 2017, and none have won at all. Now, I asked myself this question, so I'll regurgitate it to you guys. How good were those 12 teams, right? Like in terms of rankings entering the dance? Well, all were AP top 5 and all were top 9 in RPI. So pretty decent teams now. That's Florida. So I know Jim was talking about them potentially not making it there. I think a lot of the talking heads like Florida, but their path is tough. And then I'll leave you with one just fun one. We tend to see unders with high totals early in March Madness in round of 64 earlier games with a total of 140 or more. More, which is this year almost every single game. It looks like there's 60 to the under for a 14 ROI since 2012, finishing above.500 for the under in six straight tournaments. So unders tend to come in early in these games. And this year got a lot of high totals, so should be a good one.
Jim Root
That spooks me. I think I'm on too many overs based on that one. I. I might have to do some rethinking here.
Elf Beauty
And the crazy, the crazy thing about those totals though. One more thing. It's the highest. And I looked this up every game round of 64, the highest we've seen in 30 years. I've got total since 95. We've never seen this average high of totals. We have like 10 or 12 games at 150 plus. So some wild games out there.
Jim Root
This was the most efficient season in college basketball history in terms of scoring. So that probably, you know, rising tide lifts all boats sort of thing. Last year I think was the most efficient. And then this year blew it away by another like point per possession. It's. It's been nuts. Yeah.
Chad Millman
Jim's out here giving overs for his best bets on.
Jim Root
I'm fighting a 60% trend. What am I doing?
Chad Millman
It's all right. These trends are bullshit anyways.
Elf Beauty
It's bs.
Chad Millman
We can't wait to have you with us in Chicago for the massive favorites live event. You and the entire three man weave crew, who are really like the original impresarios when it comes to using analytics to bet on college basketball. I know you guys do this well in a variety of ways, so we're stoked to have you in Chicago. I'll make as many DePaul Boulou Madhemian References as I possibly can at the live event so we can live back the glory years when DePaul and Marquette are going back and forth. Good Catholic schools dominated college basketball. Remember those days, Jim? I know you're an old guy.
Jim Root
Oh, yeah. My dad got his master's degree from DePaul, so, you know, he's. He's got some Blue Demon history as well. So, you know, we go all the way back. I will say too, I've had some good times at Joe's on weed. Great, great setup. Like to watch games and I'm pumped to go back there and have the mic in my hand this time instead of be the one watching whatever performance is happening.
Chad Millman
I'll bet you've had some good time at Joe's on weed.
Jim Root
Okay, Simon.
Chad Millman
Simon, you got him again.
Simon Hunter
Simon, you're on a heater.
Chad Millman
Simon, come on, come on. Dramatic pause. Dramatic pause right there. All right. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and is now live in my home state of Illinois. New bet365 customers, including those in Illinois get Illinois get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites deposit10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at bet365, especially in Illinois. Must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 older and cont Kentucky gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or 1-800- bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page. Thursday 11am talking March Madness all things betting, Betting in media, his extraordinary career with Stanford. Steve Famous from SportsCenter from College Game Day, the original host of behind the the College Years going back many, many years. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, subscribe, leave us. 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
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Podcast Summary: The Favorites - March Madness Betting Preview
Podcast Information:
[01:46] Chad Millman:
Chad Millman opens the episode by introducing "The Favorites," a podcast presented by bet365 and part of the Volume Podcast Network. He is joined by his co-host, Simon Hunter, referred to as his "compadre" and "best friend forever." The focus of the episode is on March Madness, highlighting it as a "gambling extravaganza" with the NCAA tournament set to commence.
[02:12] Chad Millman:
Chad emphasizes the significance of March Madness in the sports betting calendar, mentioning that the first round kicks off with 32 games over two days, defining it as a crucial time for college hoops fans and bettors alike.
[03:32] Jim Root:
Chad introduces Jim Root, a longtime contributor to their "Big Bets on Campus" podcast and a college hoops fanatic from the University of Missouri. Jim joins to provide expert analysis on the upcoming tournament, sharing his excitement and readiness to discuss betting strategies.
[06:21] Jim Root:
Jim delves into his Final Four predictions, expressing that the tournament feels "especially top-heavy." He discusses the dominance of high-seeded teams, noting a reluctance to include lower seeds like the 21-seeds in his brackets. Jim highlights the strength and analytical superiority of teams like Duke, Florida, Auburn, and Houston, suggesting that these teams have "separated themselves" from the rest of the field.
Notable Quote:
"This four teams are so good and analytically they've separated themselves." — Jim Root [06:21]
[07:37] Jim Root:
Jim discusses the inclusion of Duke, Florida, Auburn, and Houston in his Final Four, praising their analytical strengths. However, he raises concerns about Florida, questioning their ability to win the national title despite their SEC victory.
[09:06] Chad Millman:
Chad playfully suggests that Duke, Florida, Auburn, and Houston constitute 75% of the Final Four, prompting Jim to reveal his complete picks.
[42:37] Jim Root:
Jim concludes his Final Four selections with:
He elaborates on his choice of Texas Tech, citing Coach Grant McCasland's versatility and the team's adaptability in various game scenarios.
Notable Quote:
"St. John's, Texas Tech, Maryland... Texas Tech can get it done and be the #1 non-#1 seed in my final four." — Jim Root [42:37]
[11:49] Simon Hunter:
Simon Hunter praises St. John's defensive prowess and their high floor, emphasizing their ability to limit upsets due to their strong defensive metrics.
[12:18] Chad Millman:
Chad inquires about the potential advantages St. John's might have had with a different seeding placement, suggesting they could have preferred playing closer to home.
[13:21] Chad Millman:
Chad commends Coach Rick Pitino's coaching style, highlighting his ability to adapt and motivate players effectively, which he believes is essential for tournament success.
[23:55] Simon Hunter:
Simon seeks advice on outright underdog bets, expressing interest in Jim's recommendations for potential upsets.
[32:42] Simon Hunter:
Simon presses Jim for specific underdog picks across different game days, underscoring the importance of identifying value bets beyond the favorite teams.
[44:51] Evan Abrams (Director of Research):
Evan provides comprehensive betting trends, including:
[50:42] Jim Root:
Jim expresses concern over rising point totals, acknowledging that the current trend of high-scoring games might require a reevaluation of his betting strategies.
[51:06] Jim Root:
Jim remarks on the efficiency of the current college basketball season, noting it as the "most efficient season in college basketball history" in terms of scoring, which affects betting outcomes.
Notable Quote:
"This was the most efficient season in college basketball history in terms of scoring." — Jim Root [51:06]
[04:11] Chad Millman:
Chad announces a live Elite 8 event in Chicago featuring Jim Root and the "Three Man Weave" crew. Attendees can expect live shows, free drinks, and engaging discussions on March Madness betting strategies.
[42:37] Jim Root:
Jim expresses excitement about the live event, mentioning his personal connection to DePaul University and anticipating a lively atmosphere at Joe's on Weed.
[54:25] Chad Millman:
Chad wraps up the episode by reiterating the availability of bonus bets for new bet365 customers in Illinois, emphasizing the promotional offer with the promo code "FAVORITES."
[55:02] Outro Ads:
The episode concludes with various sponsor messages promoting Elf Beauty, Mel Reed's new podcast "Quiet Please," and tickets for the 2025 iHeart Country Festival.
Top-Heavy Tournament: The NCAA tournament appears dominated by high-seeded, analytically superior teams, making early upsets less likely.
Final Four Picks: Jim Root selects St. John's, Texas Tech, and Maryland, highlighting their strong performances and coaching strategies.
Betting Trends: Effective free-throw shooting and strategic underdog bets are identified as profitable avenues for bettors.
Coaching Impact: Coaches like Rick Pitino and Grant McCasland play pivotal roles in their teams' adaptability and success in the tournament.
Efficiency in Play: The current season's high efficiency in scoring impacts betting strategies, necessitating adjustments from bettors.
Notable Quotes with Timestamps:
"This four teams are so good and analytically they've separated themselves." — Jim Root [06:21]
"St. John's, Texas Tech, Maryland... Texas Tech can get it done and be the #1 non-#1 seed in my final four." — Jim Root [42:37]
"This was the most efficient season in college basketball history in terms of scoring." — Jim Root [51:06]
This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from "The Favorites - March Madness Betting Preview," providing bettors and sports enthusiasts with valuable information and strategies for the upcoming NCAA tournament.