Podcast Summary: "The Favorites - March Mailbag"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
• Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
• Description: The Herd with Colin Cowherd is a thought-provoking, opinionated, and topic-driven journey through the top sports stories of the day.
• Episode: The Favorites - March Mailbag
• Release Date: March 4, 2025

1. Introduction and Personal Updates

The episode kicks off with Chad Millman sharing a heartfelt recount of his birthday weekend. Celebrating with high school friends and their spouses, Chad describes the trip as a "phenomenal weekend" filled with "constant ball busting" and "laughter" (01:04). His co-host, Simon Hunter, contrasts Chad’s experience with his own, expressing boredom while watching the NFL Combine and reflecting on his mixed feelings about the event (01:46).

2. Episode Theme: Listener Mailbag on NFL Betting

Transitioning into the core of the episode, Chad introduces the first off-season mailbag segment dedicated to answering listener-submitted questions, predominantly focused on NFL betting strategies (03:15). The hosts emphasize their engagement with the audience, hinting at future discussions based on listener interests.

3. NFL Betting Models: Key Inputs and Strategies

A significant portion of the discussion centers around constructing effective NFL betting models. Chad and Simon delve into the most crucial elements to consider:

• Quarterbacks: Highlighted as the most pivotal position in betting models. Simon states, “start at the top if you're trying to build a football model, the most important position, pretty basic, go to the quarterback” (10:16).

• Offensive and Defensive Lines: Both hosts agree on the importance of these lines. Chad adds, “overall offensive power rating, overall defensive power rating” as foundational metrics (12:05).

• Fourth Down Success Rate: Simon points out the rising significance of fourth down decisions in recent seasons, noting, “teams being more risk-averse... it is a big deal” (10:16).

4. Reflecting on Worst Futures Bets of 2025

Chad and Simon candidly discuss their least successful futures bets from the past NFL season:

• Chad’s Worst Bet: Betting on the Vikings to have the worst record, Chad explains his rationale tied to skepticism about Sam Darnold's performance, which ultimately backfired as Darnold excelled (17:00).

• Simon’s Worst Bet: Similarly disappointed by the Vikings, Simon recounts a specific Week 2 game against the 49ers where his confidence in the Vikings faltered, leading to a regrettable bet (19:10).

5. Evolution of NFL Betting Markets Post-PASPA

The hosts examine the landscape of NFL betting since the repeal of the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) in May 2018:

• Same-Game Parlays: Chad expresses surprise at their popularity, describing them as “the lottery ticket” that diverges from traditional betting strategies focused on spreads and totals (27:07).

• Market Changes: Simon laments the shift towards "get-rich-quick" schemes, advocating for disciplined betting approaches over parlays (28:40).

• Advice for Bettors: Emphasizing the importance of shopping around for the best lines, Simon advises listeners to “have multiple books” to maximize their betting efficiency (27:07).

6. Least Relevant Positions in NFL Betting Models

A lighter yet insightful segment where Chad and Simon debate which football positions hold the least weight in betting models:

• Fullbacks: Both agree that fullbacks are becoming obsolete in modern football, citing their minimal impact on the game (41:04).

• Kickers and Punters: While acknowledging their importance, Simon humorously suggests they might be among the lesser critical positions for bettors (41:25).

7. The Relevance of Aaron Rodgers in the Modern NFL

The conversation turns to veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers, sparking divergent opinions:

• Simon’s View: Simon believes Rodgers still holds a place in the league due to his moments of brilliance and leadership, despite declining performance (38:37).

• Chad’s Perspective: Contrarily, Chad views Rodgers as largely irrelevant unless he’s surrounded by an impeccable offensive line and talented receivers. He suggests Rodgers' relevance is more about his personality than his on-field contributions (39:37).

8. Conclusion and Upcoming Events

Wrapping up the episode, Chad and Simon promote their upcoming live event in Chicago for the Elite Eight March Madness games, encouraging listeners to RSVP and participate in exclusive betting shows and trivia giveaways (25:17). They also tease future episodes, promising continued insights and listener engagement.

Notable Quotes:

• Chad Millman on Betting Models:

  • “overall offensive power rating, overall defensive power rating... it tends to indicate how well a team is performing in the most basic of, of expectations, which is getting a first down” (12:05).

• Simon Hunter on Same-Game Parlays:

  • “sportsbet as a get, get rich quick scheme... it's just not [a viable long-term strategy]” (28:40).

• Chad Millman on Aaron Rodgers:

  • “the only reason he's relevant is because people still like to talk to him and talk about him” (39:37).

Conclusion

"The Favorites - March Mailbag" offers an in-depth exploration of NFL betting strategies, reflecting on past successes and failures while navigating the evolving landscape post-PASPA. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide valuable insights for both novice and seasoned bettors, emphasizing disciplined approaches over trendy betting practices. Their candid discussions, enriched with personal anecdotes and listener interactions, make this episode a must-listen for anyone interested in the intricacies of sports betting.

Timestamp Reference:

• [01:04] Chad Millman's birthday trip
• [01:46] Simon Hunter on NFL Combine
• [03:15] Introduction to mailbag
• [07:05] Discussion on fighting Chris Long
• [10:16] Importance of quarterback in models
• [12:05] Offensive and Defensive Power Ratings
• [15:45] Fourth Down Success Rate
• [17:00] Chad on worst bet: Vikings
• [19:10] Simon on worst bet: Vikings vs. 49ers
• [25:17] Promotion for Chicago live event
• [27:07] Changes post-PASPA
• [28:40] Same-Game Parlays discussion
• [38:37] Aaron Rodgers' relevance
• [39:37] Chad's perspective on Rodgers
• [41:04] Least relevant positions debate
• [41:25] Kickers and Punters discussion