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- [00:00]
Julie Swerbinks
What's up everyone? Julie Swerbinks here along with former NHL player Nate Thompson.
- [00:05]
Nate Thompson
We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go.
- [00:08]
Julie Swerbinks
The name Energy Line with Nate and jsb.
- [00:11]
Nate Thompson
Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey life. All topics are fair game, right?
- [00:16]
Julie Swerbinks
Exactly. And you'll never know who will drop by to join us.
- [00:20]
Nate Thompson
Julie is pretty well connected. She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.
- [00:25]
Julie Swerbinks
Listen to Energy Line with Nate and jsb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:41]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the favorites the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network live from our Tommy John home studios. I. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:02]
Simon Hunter
Chad. How was your birthday week, brother?
- [01:05]
Chad Millman
Oh my God, dude, I got so lucky. I do a trip every year with friends, all my high school buddies and their wives. There's about 25 people that go. We've been going for seven or eight years. It's the highlight of my year. It's. It is a phenomenal weekend. No kids. It is constant ball busting, laughing. It is truly a gift of a trip. And my birthday happened to be the weekend of this trip this year. So it was just, it was a weekend of love and laughter. A day of love and laughter, turning old. And it was fantastic, Simon. Just great.
- [01:46]
Simon Hunter
Well, so other of us were working, watching the combine, so I'm happy you had a good time. I was literally bored out of my mind. I always forget how much I love and hate the combine. It's cool at moments. Other moments are just like, what am I doing? My life. Why am I even watching this? Am I gaining anything from this? So, yeah, another weekend of NFL combine gone. And yeah, already on to the next season, brother. Feels like that's the kickoff party. So into 2025 we go.
- [02:10]
Chad Millman
I did get a nice text from you, which I loved. So kind of you to think of me on my birthday.
- [02:16]
Simon Hunter
Well, I was gonna call, but God bless women, dude. I was out to dinner with a girl and luckily I was with her the day before and told her I texted you to make sure throughout the dinner she goes, you call your buddy Chad. I go, holy shit. I almost reached out to him before the birthday did hit him up on the birthday. So thank God for women.
- [02:32]
Chad Millman
I'm a big fan of, of a preemptive birthday text. Like if I Remember if I remember the day before, I'm like, oh shit, it's their birthday tomorrow. I'll send it the day before. Be like, this counts as your birthday text. I'm not sure it's going to enter the banks tomorrow. Speaking of NFL Simon, today is our first off season mailbag episode. We're going to answer questions so submitted from listeners. As you would expect, so many of these questions are NFL related, so I'm glad you're thinking about it. I'm thinking about it. We've both put in futures bets into the app. I've already put in, I think the ners and I put in the Packers. You put in the Rams.
- [03:14]
Simon Hunter
I did put the Rams in.
- [03:16]
Chad Millman
Got it. Rams didn't come up when we had our last conversation for they did.
- [03:20]
Simon Hunter
I, I, I like the Rams. I said I just didn't bet them because the unknown of Stafford. Once I knew what was going to happen with Stafford, I was going to do it. And yeah, I mean we can get into it, but it was definitely a weekend of rumors, I'll tell you that much. Chad like the whole Stafford to the Raiders. I almost got caught in that one because I thought that was like legit gonna happen. He was basically like a done deal kind of thing. And then the last minute the Rams came back and we're just like, you know, we'll pay you. So yeah, glad I did not put the Raiders into the the action app. Cause that's looking like a Sam Darnold kind of bet. So yeah, glad I avoided the Raiders super bowl futures bet.
- [03:54]
Chad Millman
Well, look, if you had put in the Raiders, it could have been in our mailbag. 2026 is your worst futures bet of 2025, which is one of the questions that we have today. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet$5. Sign up using promo code Favorites Deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or 1, 800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions, restrictions apply. Okay, before we get into the questions, don't forget you can officially RSVP for our free free Free Favorites live show event in the greatest city in the World, Chicago, IL. This will be for the Elite Eight March Madness games on Saturday, March 29, at Joe's Bar on Weed street, also known more popularly known as Joe's on Weed in Chicago. Free event, free drinks, free live show. You MUST RSVP to reserve your spot. Follow the link in this episode's description. What are we doing there? We'll do an exclusive pregame Elite 8 betting show before TIFF with Stuckey Action Network, OG Stuckey, Jim Root, both of them at our Big Bets on Campus podcast. Jim Root, of course, one of the three Man Weave members, one of the best college basketball analytics groups in the country. We're going to break down the games from a betting perspective. We'll do some trivia giveaways. We should never. We should have another truckload of merchants on hand. Those who were in Philly can recall it was basically a moment in which Matt Mitchell created questions for people to bash me and then get free hoodies. So that sounds like it's going to be a good time. Some folks might have asked why Chicago? One of the biggest reasons is bet365 is launching in the state of Illinois in the weeks ahead. Very exciting development for the fine folks of Illinois, my statehood brethren. All right, Simon, first question. The day before our Chicago Live show, friend of the podcast Chris Long turns 40. Man's getting old. We love Chris. He retired after a stellar career as a defensive end, a fantastic career, multiple Super Bowls. He's hosted the Green Light podcast for many years now. Most importantly, Chris Long was and remains a physical beast. So the question is, if we froze my current physical condition in place, what age would Chris Long have to be for me and Chad Millman, 20, 25 years to confidently defeat him in a fight, what do you think the answer is?
- [07:05]
Simon Hunter
I mean, I have a. I think you're scrappy, Chad. I think you're a little scrapper than people perceive. So I, I guess just because he's a genetic freak, I guess some point in his 80s, right? Like his hips, his knees, something's gonna go on that guy. He's pushed his body to the limit. Chad here, not so much. So I feel like you have an advantage there. So I guess, yeah, I guess Chris Long, 85 chat, could easily take him down.
- [07:31]
Chad Millman
All right, so I thought a lot about this. And, you know, I exercise a lot. I'm on the rowing machine, I'm on the peloton. I do light weightlifting. You know, I'm about bone density. I'm about flexibility. I'm about stability. I'm about eating right. I'm about BO2 max. All those things. I'm looking for health span, okay? Not lifespan, health span. And I believe I am in better physical condition today than I've been in my entire life. So if I was able to freeze this in place. My diet consists of nuts, legumes, beans, occasional chicken, lots of salmon, vegetables, very little sugar, very little processed food. I am a specimen right now, Simon. I like, I have tensile strength, tensile strength. I'm doing the weighted step ups. You know, you got a dumbbell in both hands. I'm stepping up. I did it at the gym when we were in Palm spring rings. I went twice in the three days we were there.
- [08:38]
Simon Hunter
I love you. Think any of this is going to help you in a fight in any way.
- [08:41]
Chad Millman
My point, it's a good time for me to freeze myself in place. The age for Chris Long for me. You said 85. I wrote down 83. And my, my thoughts were, by then, maybe he'll have let himself go. Like, clearly, he's a physical marvel. Naturally gifted, naturally athletic, naturally strong. And then he did all the work required on top of that, which he maintains. He's taller, he's stronger. But I think by 83, maybe he's let himself go. I think some of the achiness from football, like, he might not be able to move around. I'll be able to, you know, maneuver, scurry, deflect. So I had it at 83.
- [09:23]
Simon Hunter
I said, that's the only way you could beat him because if he got his hands on you, it would even at that age. Old man strength. Like I was going to say, I've seen, like you were talking about you being in great shape. I've seen guys in peak physical fitness get dropped by senior citizens because it's all about technique and fighting. And Chris had the ultimate cheat code. He has a house full of freak brothers who I'm sure they fought a ton growing up. So, yeah, we would both need Chris to be incredibly old to be able to take him down.
- [09:52]
Chad Millman
You're right. The brother factor and sort of the, the, the muscle memory of being in that position. It's not the same for me given that I had a sister who was seven years younger than I. Not at all. We get a lot of questions about your model, namely, what are the most important inputs. So let's start with that question.
- [10:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I always tell people, like, to start at the top if you're trying to build a football model, the most important position, pretty basic, go to the quarterback. And then I think not enough people realize the next position on, you know, fans think of the running backs, the wide receivers, those type of positions. Right. John, we always talk about, it's all about the deal on the O line. So for me, if you want to go D line over O line, no problem. I know plenty of people who value that higher than they do O line. I do put O line above D line and then you can build out from there. So, yeah, for me it really is all about the quarterback, the O lines, D lines. And then, you know, I know plenty of people that factor in the coaching and you know, the biggest adjustment this year. I mean, I know that's part of this question coming up, what's the, you know, adjustments I'm making to the model it's going to be. We talked about the fourth down success rate. Like, I can't overlook how important that was this past season, how much that changed football. Like, we just, we've never seen it go up like it did this past season. That's something I really do need to factor into my motto of, you know, teams being more risk averse and that's, that is a big deal. And we talk about, like we did this past year, about the favorites compared to the dogs, right? The better quarterbacks, even if they're on that, not that much better of a team if the quarterback is such an important position that if these teams have the trust to go for on their fourth downs rather than a team that, you know, like the Saints and Derek Carr, which means, Chad, have zero faith on fourth down that this is going to be a completion. It is a big difference. When you talk about betting like I'm more, I'm, I'm more able to put money on it. A quarterback of a favorite that I believe in rather than a dog at this point with a quarterback I don't believe in. Because these fourth down tendencies are just, it's just different the NFL than it was just say four years ago. Like this is really a new age type of thing we're dealing with here. So that's definitely something. This offseason I'm going to dive way more into is the fourth down success rate.
- [12:06]
Chad Millman
When you say quarterback, offensive line, defensive line, do you do anything with overall offensive power ratings, defensive power ratings? Like to me I would start top down offensive power rating, defensive power rating, and then like incorporate quarterback and then offensive line. But I feel like those two sides plus quarterback would end up being like 85% of what I was looking at you.
- [12:34]
Simon Hunter
Could I use what I use graded for especially like pro football focus is like going to their grades about different players who I'm not keen in on. Right. Like there's a couple guys that come to the league and you're not really sure about and you're not paying attention to those teams and they kind of pop on film. Film doesn't really all explain if a player is good or not. And that's really like you're talking about individual stats and numbers. Definitely that's something I dive into. But if you're trying to incorporate all that into your model, you can do that. But that is a ton of work and you know, that might muddy the waters a little bit because it could make you over adjust to different things. Like, you know, we joked about a Cooper DeJean joined the Eagles. You look at how he ended the year. He ended out of the year as like a top five cornerback nickel. Like that's, that's the type of thing where you do need to be ahead of and adjust that in your model. The fact that he is improving a defense that much. So I agree with you. There are, there are individual stats to dive into. But yeah, for what I do. No, it's. It's kind of a median. Right. I use them and a bunch of other different websites to try to give me one median number on each player grade rather than individual. Each player grade.
- [13:36]
Chad Millman
Right. But what I'm saying is overall offensive power rating, overall defensive.
- [13:42]
Simon Hunter
I like what you're saying.
- [13:43]
Chad Millman
You know. Yeah.
- [13:44]
Simon Hunter
Way though we talk about that all the time. That's. That's dvoa. Like you want to do that? Yeah.
- [13:50]
Chad Millman
Why do you hate dvoa?
- [13:52]
Simon Hunter
I don't. I just think it's like it's just the Boeing Lazy man tool in a lot of ways. Right. Like the Lions played the, the Washington the playoffs dvoa, they had a way better grade because they were better all season if they. Even if they adjust while the season goes along. You know, DVO was going to favor big time the Lions team against that Washington team where when you really break it down, their DVO is much closer because that Washington kept on improving throughout the season towards heading into the playoffs or on the flip side, the Lions were just dying. Like they were just slowly dying and there was nothing they could really do. So I do love dva, but I explained to you, I just think it's a tool where some people just simply use that as their metric for every bet they make on just. I think that's Way too risky and too basic to use like that.
- [14:37]
Chad Millman
No, I don't think you can do that. I've actually, you and I have talked about this for about the past month. Been thinking really hard about modeling and what the inputs should be. And everyone I talk to, they don't use DVA exclusively, but they do use some form of offensive power rating, defensive power rating, quarterback rating, offensive line comes up less, defensive line comes up less. And then like success metrics, you know, because. And that's a new advanced analytic for the NFL that does measure sort of how well you perform in those 10 yard increments. Right. And so to me that's a really interesting metric to start to think about if you are looking for new keys to analyzing teams because it tends to indicate how well a team is performing in the most basic of, of expectations, which is getting a first down.
- [15:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, but like those numbers too you're diving into there, that's, that's also people looking for matchups they can take advantage of. Right. So yeah, that, that, that makes total sense in my, in my view.
- [15:57]
Chad Millman
I like when you agree with me. Makes me happy as I get older. Simon just makes me feel like I'm getting smarter. But so are you because you're thinking on my level now as an old person looking back at last season, the worst futures bet you made. For me, it's easy. Like I saw this question and I didn't have to think hard at all. I bet on the Vikings to have the worst record in the NFL because I had so little faith in Sam Darnold. I thought the team needed to restock. I was not a fan of the signing of Andrew Van Ginkel and getting rid of Daniel Hunter. So I just thought this is a team that is going to start over. Little did I know Kevin O'Connell really was the genius that I thought he was. And Sam Darnold is going to have a brilliant year. So for me, that's the one.
- [17:00]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'll join you on that one. That was definitely our worst take. But it's also, that's why we love football. Right? They were basically every, every one of those games are play away pretty much for being, you know, 4 and 13. Like they had a ton of really good luck in one square games and Sam Darnold played at an insane level that there is no one in the world that can say they knew that Sam Darnold was going to play at that level for that whole season. So they're going to be coming up a lot here if we're Talking about worst things we did this past season because it took me a minute to believe in this Vikings team. Like, I was fighting them. Like we talked about, we were heavy on them being the worst team. Like my, my three worst teams were them, Tennessee and New England nailed. The other two got absolutely slaughtered obviously on the Vikings, but we talk all the time. It's. It's tough to know how these quarterbacks perform in new situations and new teams. And Sam Darnold, you know, totally, totally played out of this world. Just like we've seen Baker playing in Tampa. Like, these guys get to these new teams, if they have the right coach and the right talent around them, it's pretty incredible what they can do. But yeah, the Vikings clearly don't believe in them long term. They're letting him walk.
- [18:06]
Chad Millman
What's interesting about the Bucks and Baker, that has been really impressive. That bodes well, I think, for him. Back to back years now with a new offensive coordinator and did great both years from Canales to Liam Cohn. And now he's going to have to do it again. I would be less worried about it if I were a Bucks fan than I might have previously been because he's proven what he's good at, that he's got moxie, the players get behind, and all of a sudden I think that's a lot to build on. Versus. All right, here's another journeyman QB that we're not really sold on. I think that's going to be the problem with Darnold, is you're going to have to see if people really start to rally around him as he decide if he ends up going somewhere else and if he can repeat the success the way Baker has done it. Simon, which individual game bet do you look back on and hate the most? I have a list of so many and I've been trying to figure out which one I hate the most. You tell me what yours is.
- [19:10]
Simon Hunter
Mine's. Mine's easy. It's. It's week two. I'm almost positive it was. Week two was 49ers versus the Vikings. And it was like, definitely one of these moments where, like, everyone thinks their shit don't stink. And I had a moment there where I was like, I thought I was smarter than a lot of guys who I respect in this business. They basically told me all week to bet my house on the Vikings versus the 49ers. I think the Vikings opened as a plus six dog or plus six and a half. And it got down to four and a half, four by kickoff. And whatever happened that Sunday morning, not only did I load up on the 49ers, I made you put them in the competition when we both knew I said it to you, this is going to lose, but I need to bet it anyway. Like, I have no idea what I was going through at that time period. My head must have just spinning because normally 9 out of 10 times I would have been on the Vikings in that spot, ultimate trap spot, undervalued team, as a dog at home. And yeah, my hate for the Vikings was just too strong. Again, we all make mistakes, especially as a professional, but that was when I was just like, fuck, that was such an amateur bet. So that, that definitely haunted me this past season.
- [20:20]
Chad Millman
I am going to go to first week of October. October 6th, Joe Burrow and the Bengals against the Baltimore Ravens.
- [20:32]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [20:33]
Chad Millman
Bengals are two and a half point dogs.
- [20:35]
Simon Hunter
That was brutal.
- [20:36]
Chad Millman
We still believe in the Bengals at this point. The Ravens defense has been playing terribly. They're letting teams back in it nonstop in the first half of the year. We're thinking Bengals outright is the play. So two and a half is value.
- [20:51]
Simon Hunter
I swore you were going to go Bears, Bears, commanders here. But that was such a Chad moment.
- [20:58]
Chad Millman
That was. That was. God, that was pretty bad too. I forgot about it. You know what?
- [21:02]
Simon Hunter
I'm sorry. You blocked it. I should never even brought it up. You just.
- [21:05]
Chad Millman
I totally forgot about it because the, the Bears game that was on my list was when we had the Lions minus nine and a half and they were dot. They should have been up in the first half and the Bears covered. No, it was Cincinnati two and a half. Because that was a game that also to me, like the Bears, whatever, the Bears, you know, they weren't a team that we believed in. They were a team that, that if anything good happened, we were excited. That was a bad beat. But this was a beat that felt indicative of the season. Okay, for us, where we're winning, we're winning, we're winning. Joe Burrow, who has the best year he's ever had, maybe has the worst play he makes the entire season, and we end up losing the bet on a field goal by a kicker who was having his worst season and happened to make his best kick in that game. So it wasn't like, it wasn't like, oh, things weren't going our way. It's like the extremes didn't go our way.
- [22:08]
Simon Hunter
No.
- [22:08]
Chad Millman
And that game was indicative of everything that went wrong for our season.
- [22:15]
Simon Hunter
They're brutal.
- [22:17]
Chad Millman
You remember, you know, the game I'm.
- [22:19]
Simon Hunter
Talking about oh yeah, I remember them all, brother. I, I don't remember the wins, I remember all the losses.
- [22:24]
Chad Millman
Well, that's what makes this next question so hard. Like when, when I saw this question, I made a bunch of notes in the script and I had, I had seven or eight answers for this one, including any, any Tennessee boy to bet at any point in the season and any Carolina bet in the first half of the season and basically any jets bet all season, right, because. Because they were fucking us all year. The ones I liked. I basically had three games, a bet that I look back on and it still makes me happy. I pinpointed Miami minus five and a half at the jets in early December where because Jeff Ulbricht is such a bad head coach and made such terrible decisions when it came to fourth downs and managing the clock. Even when Miami had no business covering a six point spread, they did it in overtime against the jets and it never felt like we were out of it. And then Carolina covering a six point spread against Tampa first week of December also was a big one for me.
- [23:36]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'd just say regular season, that's, that's a big one for me. The Panthers over the Bucks just because we loved them, we hammered them, we kept saying that was a great spot to take them. The Bucks were going one way, the Panthers were going another way. And yeah, that, that one was going for, for the full season. I would say I'd have to go to the playoffs. That, that Washington over the Lions game was just epic. It's why I love this show. Like it was one of the rare times we really loved the dog. We talked about them a non stop even game out the money line. And it's the best because you hear a ton of noise, those types of weeks, right? Because there's only four games going on. Especially Lions fans, right? They have every right to be really passionate about their team. And them and the Lions fans and the backers of that team were just non stop that whole week. Like anytime I'd say anything on social media, even if I didn't say I was getting messages constantly how big of a idiot I am. And just to see that fact that they rolled like they did in Washington, the fact that Jane Daniels played a perfect game, their defense had the three picks, the pick six, four interceptions, three off golf, but all of it just lined up and it was just, you know, obviously the Eagles fan, Eagle games, as a fan, those were the most fun games to watch is just a straight better. That Washington game was so much fun to watch because of the buildup to it and the fact that it just kept going their way throughout the game. Right. It was a nice slow burn of just dominating that Detroit team because it was, I mean, people forget, it was back and forth. Detroit was running for like 200 yards. They could do whatever they want. And then all of a sudden that pick six happened and it just flipped that entire game. So, yeah, yeah, that was a really fun memory, that Washington Lions game.
- [25:17]
Chad Millman
Here's another question, Simon, so many of our listeners are pondering but are afraid to ask. Luckily, using my incredible powers of discernment, I am channeling that question right now. These listeners, they are uncomfortable in their daily lives. They lack the confidence to achieve greatness. What they access can they do? How can they transform their lives for the better? What tools do they lack? Well, I've got good news, listeners. Everything you need is just a click away. One click to tommyjohn.com favorites to transport you to a world of comfort, confidence and transformative. That's because our beloved sponsor Tommy John offers flexible, breathable, high performance comfort of top quality underwear and casual essentials, delivering the confidence you need to unleash your fullest potential. And with a special sale for our listeners, ascending to a higher plane of existence just got even easier. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?
- [26:20]
Simon Hunter
Because comfort is king right now.
- [26:22]
Chad Millman
You can shop tommyjohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn.com favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorites this is going to be the eighth NFL season since PASPA, the professional amateur Sports Protection act, was repealed in May of 2018. What are some of the biggest changes you've seen, Simon, in NFL betting markets? What are some of the biggest differences between years prior to legalization and today that could be teaser pricing, market choices, sharper lines, availability to information, scrutiny, you name it.
- [27:07]
Simon Hunter
Oh, it's tough, brother, because I hate being negative when we're in the off season. But people that bitch and moan about the good old days, they're kind of right in the systems. Everything's just worse. Everything is just absolutely worse in this, in this field. But it's always darkest before the dawn, my friend, and things will get turned around in the future. I just think we're in a weird, very weird time period right now when it comes to sports betting values. I mean, some books, legit give out. I mean, Chad knows they give out a -120 on a side and a -120 on the other side, I can't believe that's legal in this country, that these books can do that type of stuff. So it's, there's a lot, there's, there's so much I could go, we could spend an episode on, a whole episode on that type of question. But my biggest one I always preach to people is have multiple books. I hope you're in a state where you have multiple books where you can price and shop around because I mean every dime does matter. Every, every cent they take from you on the line does matter. And that adds up. If you want to be a long term successful better, it's a big deal. But to me the good thing in this industry is that someone like me personally, I've got to know people at different sports books work with guys and there are good guys out there running books that will bets and you can work with them and they'll reach out to you and try to help bounce their books out. But a couple of the books that are just too big to fail, that can do whatever the hell they want. It's, it's just a different, totally different world. So yeah, as the public, my best advice would be multiple books. It's the key to everything here is just shop around, find the best number and the best line.
- [28:41]
Chad Millman
It's so interesting. You say, you know, every, every dime matters if you want to be a long term successful better. I don't know if people do want to be that. You know, when we started action and when I saw this question, the immediate answer to me was same game parlays. And, and I don't mean that as a negative or a positive. The question was what is the biggest difference? Obviously same game parlays were not a thing before we launched action and before the repeal of paspa, they just didn't exist. Right. And so when we launched action, we thought everyone would want to bet the way we do, which is you don't care about the team that's playing. You're searching for the biggest edge at the best price on sides totals. That's really where that's the markets that were most dominantly available. And that's how we approached it, that's how operators were approaching it. And so we that remember this, we wanted best bet no matter the team at best price with the biggest edge. Parlays have become so popular, same game parlays have become so popular. And while there are certainly edges and we do our best to identify the edges and the opportunities and the value in all these things, those still aren't the bets that you make that are the most ROI positive, the most positive ev. And so it turns out people kind of just want the worst bets on their favorite team that's going to make them the most money in the shortest amount of time. And so to me, that's kind of the biggest difference is the advent of these parlay markets.
- [30:42]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I, I have obviously tons of people I grew up with, friends that I've known a long time that's, I could tell them exactly the answers to the test, but they're going to want to do their own, take their own test. Right. They don't, they don't want to bet the smart startup sides like you talked about. Well, they might throw my bed into the parlay. But what you just talked about. So true. Chad. I, I don't argue against it because you're right, most people watching, you know, they don't care. That's why I love our show. It's unique where we're doing pick contests. That's why most people listen to us, is we're trying to help them with their pick contest and give their view of a different perspective on a pick contest where. You know, most bettors these days, especially guys I know, if they have $100 to bet that Sunday, they want to do 10 different five team parlays or whatever with $10 on each one, and they're hoping to hit just one of them and get their money back or maybe make 20 bucks on top or something like that. Like I get that's a lot of the people now and you know, Chad knows we have the numbers that back it up. But I still think there are a lot of guys that they like to see the other side of it and how the pros do do it. So I do think there is a market for what we do, which is, you know, pick games straight up, which is we talk all the time. It's hard as shit. You want to go make easy money, go bet player props. Right? That's, that's an easy market. That's a small market. And you know, if you don't need to get big money down, you can bet player markets. But if you want to make real money long term, like Chad just talked about, you got to bet it straight. It's the only way. These guys online, posting their five team parlays, making a million dollars every week. Only suckers fall for that. Every. Anyone that's in this long enough knows that that's not long term winning. These guys are betting both sides. They're messing with you, it's not real, it's fake tickets. So yeah, it's tough out there. Like people want me to call people out all the time and it's just like it's, it's a waste. People need to learn. Like all. Everyone's gone through it. Everyone's been a sucker online at some point. Paying picks to someone that's a fraud or thinking this guy who's winning these parlays all week is going to keep hitting them for the rest of the year where it's like, no, that was the one week this year it's going to hit. So Chad's right. It's a weird way the league, the, the sports betting world is gone, but I saw it coming a mile away. It's. Everyone views sports bet as a get, get rich quick scheme and it's just. That's the biggest lie they're being sold. It just simply is not.
- [32:57]
Chad Millman
Well, I, it's. I never saw it coming. I'll be honest. Like, no, I feel like I've been pretty prescient about this business and where it was going and I thought, like I, I thought player props would become much, much bigger. And they have and I'm a fan of them. And I think that, that the transition from fantasy to daily fantasy and the ability to project player performance has been wondrous and fascinating to watch. I did not see sort of the parlay market becoming the lottery ticket that it has become. It's fascinating to see it and you know, we covered as best we can. But to me that's the biggest difference in sort of pre PASPA and post PASPA is, you know, you're less. I am, you're more cynical than I am. So I didn't think people would want to get rich quick in sports betting because it seems impossible to do it. I figured people want to just be good at this because they're enjoying it for watching the sports and they want to make a little bit of money and feel connected and be the smartest person in the room. All the things that interest me in it. So yeah, the SGPs were a surprise for sure. Can change can happen quickly in the NFL. As of today. Simon, what NFL team would you least like to be a fan of? Because their status, their future, their hopes feels least. Feels most hopeless.
- [34:39]
Simon Hunter
I mean it's, it's hard because that's why we love football, right? Is that your team can be changed on one draft, right? We saw that with Washington. I mean, how saw that with Houston as well. Like you get the quarterback Back in there, a couple of pieces fall into place. You can change your organization and that's what so special about football. But some, some organizations can just cannot get it right. Does not matter what they do. Even if they get the guy, they let the guy, either your coach or whoever, they let him out of the building. So for me, the team, I don't know what the hell they're going to do going forward. It's the Saints. I really don't know what the Saints are going to do and what their game plan is. You know, maybe they found their head coach, maybe they found their guy and he can, you know, show some things this year and then next year maybe they get their quarterback or whatever. It's just when I really dive into their numbers and their team and how bad they've done in drafts, money management, all of it, I just, I feel like it's about to be 10, 15, 20 years of just the dark ages right now for the Saints. So they're definitely my number one.
- [35:40]
Chad Millman
I had them on my list. They were the first team I thought of as well. And then I added on my list, Browns, Titans and Raiders. Saints for all the reasons you mentioned, I think that the cupboard is kind of bare. They've got huge cap management issues. They have not historically drafted that well. Browns, they've got the D Sean Albatross, they've got ownership that I just don't think is very good. All that savvy. Reputationally not known as the sharpest knives in the drawer in the NFL community. Now their best player in a generation in Myles Garrett wants out because he sees how bad things are. They have no real hope at quarterback right now unless they can get, you know, turn Cam Ward into something brilliant. But the grades on him are not can't miss prospect the Titans because I think there's a lot of the issues like they're drafting number one at a time where there isn't a can't miss prospect and in a position that can really change the game. And the Raiders, not great ownership, totally bare cupboard. Just complete utter mismanagement from every level over the past 10 years. I would not want to be a fan of that team.
- [37:00]
Simon Hunter
All fair.
- [37:01]
Chad Millman
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- [38:37]
Simon Hunter
If I'm a terrible team that has no option at quarterback, I want to sit a guy for a year. I'd bring him in. Why not? He did get better as the season went along. I know that's not saying much to a lot of people, but it's such an ugly gross position, Chad. When we've seen it, I mean there's just some teams that just have nothing at the position. So yeah, would I rather have him than, you know, the 30th or you know, Marcus Mariota? Who? I love Marcus Mario as a backup but you don't want him as one of the 30 start, 32 starting quarterbacks. So yeah, do I think Roger still has a place in this league? Sure. But it's just hard because we're so used to him being great and you know, a lot of people don't like him because it was all field antics and what he says off field, but just strictly on field. I guess I'd still take them. Like it's just if you have nothing at the position, I'd give him a job just because he does have these moments of brilliance and he does know to command an offense. But yeah, it's, it's just sad times. We know. I mean, you know, this, this might be it for him this year as a starter in this league.
- [39:38]
Chad Millman
I think he's irrelevant as a player. I think if you don't have an offensive line that is perfect with him as your quarterback, you're destined to be disappointed. I think if you don't have uber talented receivers who can read his mind, you're destined to be disappointed. I Think he will come in and change the chemistry of your franchise in a way that you can't expect or understand until he's in the building. I think the only reason he's relevant is because people still like to talk to him and talk about him. Because he's always going to give an interesting answer. He's always going to give an answer where he is kind of smirking, kind of thinking he's the smartest guy in the room. Kind of think he's getting one over on you. And for those reasons alone, you're going to want to talk about the guy. Are those football reasons? No. He's still going to be a guy that has relevance because he's Aaron Rodgers at the tail end of his career and things haven't been going well and the expectations are always so high. So, yeah, he's relevant, unfortunately. Last question, Last question. We started the show talking about inputs for models. Offensive line, defensive line, quarterback. What is your least relevant position.
- [41:05]
Simon Hunter
In football? Sheesh. Man, they're all tough.
- [41:12]
Chad Millman
I thought about this a lot. I had two answers.
- [41:15]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I would say, I guess. I guess it is, because it's kind of gone extinct. Would be the fullback.
- [41:26]
Chad Millman
That was my answer.
- [41:27]
Simon Hunter
That's a good one. I would say fullback's a good one. I'm trying to think is like. I think I like to make fun of kickers and punters, but they're crazy important. Like, they're crazy important to the team. If I, If I had to put one down, though, I would say you, you could win a game. Of all the positions that have the. The worst player in the entire field, you could win a game. If your slot corner, I guess, is just absolutely terrible. Like, if there's one position you could get away on the field because everyone else, like if your linebacker is awful, if there's a guy on the line that's just the worst player on the team. Safety, Cornerback. Yeah, I think. I think nickel is the only place you get away with having just an absolute horror because maybe you can just double that guy and, you know. Yeah, that's really tough, though. That's tough. Worst, least important position on the field is really tough.
- [42:15]
Chad Millman
Well, I think the least important position has to be the position that is basically no longer in existence. How many fullbacks can you name? Right. There's like three fullbacks and two of them. One of them plays for the Ravens and one of them plays for the Chargers, and one of them plays for the Chiefs and the fullbacks for the Ravens and the Chargers end up just being guys that the Harbaughs like to play both ways and so I think that's got to be the least relevant because they don't even have to be on the field. Their impact is so minimal. I thought punter, kicker for less than half a second because any better knows kickers forget about how important they are punters. You have two bad punts in a game, it could fuck you. It could change the entire tenor of the game.
- [43:02]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, brutal.
- [43:05]
Chad Millman
We're going to do another mailbag. I didn't get to all the questions today. We are going to do another mailbag because they come flying in so we want to get to as many as we can. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms Conditions restrictions apply. Don't forget, sign up for the Favorites Live event. You got RSVP. Joe's on weed in Chicago March 29th elite eight Saturday I'm going to be there. Simon's going to be there. Stuckey's going to be there. Jim Root from Three Man Weave and the Big Bets on Campus podcast is going to be there. We'll do an exclusive show talking about the games that day, plus some hangouts. Those are great events. Joe's on Weed in Chicago. RSVP in the link in the episode description Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on The Action Network YouTube page Thursday 11am Eastern with special guest Field Yates talking NFL. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods Rate Review Subscribe Leave us. 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [45:02]
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- [45:26]
Simon Hunter
Auto Parts.
- [45:29]
Julie Swerbinks
What's up, everyone? Julie Swerbinks here along with former NHL player Nate Thompson.
- [45:34]
Nate Thompson
We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go.
- [45:37]
Julie Swerbinks
The name Energy Line with Nate and jsb.
- [45:40]
Nate Thompson
Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey life. All topics are fair game, right?
- [45:45]
Julie Swerbinks
Exactly. And you'll never know who will drop by to join us.
- [45:49]
Nate Thompson
Julie is pretty well connected. She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.
- [45:54]
Julie Swerbinks
Listen to Energy Line with Nate and jsb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.