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- [00:00]
AJ Andrews
What's up y'all? I'm AJ Andrews, pro softball player, sports analyst and the first woman to win a Rawlings Gold Glove on my new podcast, Dropping Diamonds. We dive headfirst into the world of softball by sharing powerful stories, insights and conversations that inspire and empower. It's time to drop bombs and diamonds. Dropping diamonds with AJ Andrews is an iHeart women's sports production in partnership with Athletes Unlimited Softball League and Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. Listen to dropping diamonds with AJ Andrews on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podc.
- [00:33]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports Network. What's up everyone? Julie Swerbinks here along with former NHL player Nate Thompson.
- [00:42]
Nate Thompson
We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go.
- [00:45]
Julie Stewart-Banks
The name Energy Line with Nate and jsb.
- [00:48]
Nate Thompson
Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey life. All topics are fair game, right?
- [00:54]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Exactly. And you'll never know who will drop by to join us.
- [00:57]
Nate Thompson
Julie is pretty well connected. She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.
- [01:02]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Listen to Energy Line with Nate and jsb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:10]
Mel Reid
This is Mel Reid, LPGA Tour winner and six time Ladies European Tour winner.
- [01:14]
Kira K. Dixon
And Kyra K. Dixon, NBC Sports reporter and host.
- [01:17]
Mel Reid
And we've got a new podcast, Quiet Please with Mel and Kira.
- [01:22]
Kira K. Dixon
We are bringing you spicy takes on sports and pop culture. Some interviews with incredible people who have figured out how to make golf their superpower.
- [01:29]
Mel Reid
An iHeart wins sports production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. You can find us on iHeartrad app or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:36]
Kira K. Dixon
Presented by Elf Beauty, Founding Partner of.
- [01:39]
Chad Millman
I Heart Women's Sports.
- [01:40]
Simon Hunter
Tickets are on sale now y'all, for our 2025 I Heart Country Festival presented by Capital One, happening Saturday, May 3rd at the Moody center in Austin, Texas. Don't miss your chance to see Brooks and Dunn, Thomas Rhett, Rascal Flatts, Cole Swindell, Sam Hunt, Megan Maroney, Bailey Zimmerman, Nate S.M. tickets are on sale now at Ticketmaster.com.
- [02:15]
Sean Zerillo
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network live from my Tommy John home studio. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [02:40]
Matt Mitchell
Hello, Chad. What do we have? Four days until we're in Chicago having drinks, brother.
- [02:45]
Sean Zerillo
Can't wait, can't freaking wait. It's a great town, my favorite town. Gonna see a lot of friends when we're there. It's gonna be great to get people together. For anyone listening to the show who doesn't know what I'm talking about, I will give you the heads up in a moment because right now, while folks are talking a lot about March Madness and the sweet 16, starting this Thursday, a very chalky sweet 16. This Thursday is also an annual rite of spring, baseball's opening day. Fourteen games, 10 uninterrupted hours of Major League Baseball. As seven months of America's pastime, let sports fans and sports gamblers know spring is truly here. Simon, Way back in the day, like when you were, when we were just starting to do this show together, our producer, Matt Mitchell used to do one of my favorite things in the history of Action Network content. He used to do a video, no joke, I think every single day from any place he could find in Milwaukee to talk about what he was going to bet on a day baseball game that day. It was the most funny, passionate, exciting video that Matt Mitchell could possibly put together. It was when he was learning how to do video. He's trying to figure out how to make himself so valuable to the Action Network team. Matt, do you remember those?
- [04:22]
Matt Mitchell
I sure do.
- [04:23]
Chad Millman
Sean Zerillo had to provide the picks because no one wants my pick. So I'd get a pick from Sean on every weekday day game. So if there was a day with a weekday day game, I would get.
- [04:34]
Matt Mitchell
On my roof or, you know, go.
- [04:36]
Chad Millman
To the lake or get on a boat or do something and give out that pick. It was great.
- [04:40]
Sean Zerillo
It was, it was great. And I'm glad you mentioned Sean's real. Matt, I want you to start doing those videos every day for the next seven months. I think it'd be really fun because you don't have much else going on. It's not like, you know, football season's not happening, so you don't really have anything else happening. You know who's going to be busy for the next seven months? Our guest Action Network og. He is the engine behind our baseball picks and projections, co host of the wonderful Payoff Pitch podcast, a co panelist with me at the recent MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in early March. Hello, it's Sean Zarillo. What's up, brother?
- [05:22]
Chad Millman
How you guys doing? I, I wish opening day was on Wednesday. I wish baseball, you know, had some foresight to actually put opening day on a day where there's not some Sweet 16 games going on God forbid they gave themselves an advantage and just took advantage of day games during the summer instead of stacking all the games at night or did anything to separate themselves and give some attention to itself as a sport. So unfortunately, I know you said 10 hours of commercial free baseball, Chad. I'll be flipping back and forth to the Sweet 16 games. So it won't be commercial free for me or uninterrupted baseball for me. If I'm going to be paying attention to college basketball, I'm sure the average fan, the average sports fan certainly will be too.
- [06:01]
Sean Zerillo
Zurillo, like I said, he joined me at Sloan this year and for those who don't know, and I can't imagine anyone who listens to this show doesn't know what Sloan is, but it's basically this incredible, I think Bill Simmons called it Nerdapalooza years ago. It's this conference that's been going on for, I don't know, 15, 16 years at this point, maybe longer. Almost 20 years. That happens at Sloan, the business school at MIT that started there and is now, you know, at a convention center in Boston. Two days of panels with star studded speakers all about sports media, sports team, sports management, how to win at betting, how to win at tv. It's got an incredible, incredible slate of content. And I was hosting a panel this year about how to adjust your model, specifically betting when everything is going wrong in real time. Simon it was really based on why the fuck are all these favorites winning in the NFL and how do people manage that over the course of a season when your model needs to change and you're not used to changing your model on a dime. So I asked a real to join the panel and the other panelists were Nate Silver, best selling authority, known creator of 538, can be antagonistic on Twitter at times. And Jeff Ma, who is famously known as one of the guys who was the blackjack card counters in the book of Bringing down the House. He went to mit. Brilliant guy, long time, better. I've known him for a long time. And so these guys are super smart, very well versed in being on a panel. And this was a Rillo's first time on a panel. The dude fucking crushed it. Like going back and forth, challenging Jeff, challenging Nate, raising good points that both of them had to acknowledge and then follow up on. He was so good. He also had my favorite anecdote of the entire panel and it speaks to how inside he is on baseball and why everybody should listen to him. Simon, I know you Love when Zerillo comes on because I know you love betting baseball futures. Sean, do you remember the specific anecdote you mentioned in the panel that stopped me in my tracks that I had no idea you were going to say that I had to have you follow up on?
- [08:31]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I assume it's the Guardians shipping container issue from last year. I had several people come up to me after the panel talking about how interesting that was. They hadn't heard of it. Baseball betters, you know, who paid attention entirely last season had no idea this happened. So the Guardians last year made an aesthetic change to the concourse in right field. They removed a bunch of shipping containers which I believe were serving as concession stands. I'm not really sure they wanted to open up the concourse. And they removed all these shipping containers which opened up a tunnel, basically a wind tunnel out to right field. Now they've made some changes behind home plate this year. We'll see if it ends up sticking. I think they removed some suites behind home plates. We'll stay see if the park stays the same. But essentially in mid May, Jose Ramirez hit a fly ball to right field that left the park at 92.9 miles an hour. MLB classifies a hard hit ball starting at 95 miles an hour. And it's not like this was the softest hit home run this year or last year. It's not like it was the softest hit home run of Ramirez's career, but it was his softest hit home run in about three years. And considering the state of the baseballs last year and the reduced flight of Those relative to 2019 and the wind, the weather for that day, that ball should not have gone out of the park unless something had changed in that park. And looking at the park factors for last year in Cleveland, comparing it to prior years, now that we have more sufficient data, that's a park that used to play about 7% below the major league average in terms of left handed power last year. It was one of the best parks in baseball for left handed power. It played about 16% above the major league average. So it's very obvious in hindsight that there was a wind tunnel effect out to right field in Cleveland last year. Overs cash at a 60% clip through August. And then I think the market caught on to it a little bit because they went 1 in 12 in September. So just worth noting that that happened, worth acknowledging it when we have outlier data points or outlier results, it's worth investigating as to whether something changed, either a rule change or a park Dimension change or something in the park changed where the ball changed that could cause this effect. I have some thoughts on the NCAA tournament and the Unders hitting at a ridiculous rate using the new basketball. It's not something I expected to see in a different sport. But baseball, they seem to change the ball every year and it's something we have to pay very close attention to. This was a bit of a unique circumstance.
- [10:49]
Sean Zerillo
Simon, isn't that crazy?
- [10:51]
Matt Mitchell
It is, but it's very. Baseball. Like, it's just. This is like the random thing that happens with this sport that there is no. You can do whatever you want with your stadium. You can design it any way you want. You can make the field designed any way you want. And teams, they'll just do that stuff and guys like Sean were smart enough, they'll take advantage where the common fan will just be like, oh, look at that, they made a hole in left field or right field. You know, like they don't really think much of it. It's like, no, you can profit off of that move. And yeah, that's, that's really interesting though, the fact that, you know, they can do that stuff and there is, there is, there is no repercussion. Right. They can just do that. And it's, it's their stadium. Right? So that's interesting. In football, I know it's a big deal if you want to change the stadium and move things around just because teams think it's an advantage or a disadvantage, especially when it comes to kicking. So definitely really interesting. I didn't even know that about the Guardians. Obviously I'm not too keen in on what's going on in Cleveland, so that's crazy. That actually happened.
- [11:43]
Chad Millman
Orioles. Orioles last year moved their left field wall back in an effort to decrease or merge or I should say they moved it in in an effort to. They moved it in two years ago. They moved it back last year to try to decrease on runs because it was too many two years ago. Now they found a midpoint this year. But this is a team with a lot of young right handed hitters and it's like, oh like you guys are clearly trying to game the system for the roster build that you currently have. There's nothing against it. They could keep doing it every year if they want to, but at some point Major League Baseball may have to step in and be like, you guys can't keep touching it every single year. So just very interesting. Like you said, Simon, there's no, there's no rule against making these changes. So if teams want to change their park every year based upon their roster construction they technically can do so.
- [12:29]
Sean Zerillo
That's why we got zero on the show. We got more of that if you are listening to this in Illinois, big news. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and is now live in my native state of Illinois. Baby new bet 365 customers, including those in Illinois, get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5, sign up using promo code Favorites Deposit $10 Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365, especially in Illinois, you must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply as Simon mentioned, we are headed to Chicago. This is the last week to RSVP for our free Favorites Live show event in Chicago. This will be for the Elite Eight March Madness games. Saturday, March 29 Joe's on Weed in beautiful Chicago, Illinois. Free event, free drinks, free live show with Stuckey, the guys from three Man Weave, me and Simon. Will Duke be playing? Will it be Arkansas? RSVP now to reserve your spot by following the link in the episode's description or just Google Favorites Podcast Event Chicago and the website will pop right up. Okay, Sean, one of my other things that I love about the Sloan Conference is that it is a subculture of people who are so geeked out and focused on a singular topic, passion levels the playing field. Like it's insane to me. At one point, Simon we were at a cocktail party that is the Thursday night before the conference begins for speakers and I saw Sean there and I was talking to a buddy of mine who is wildly successful, like venture capital billionaire successful. And I introduced Sean to the guy and they start talking and within two minutes, I don't even think Sean knows who this guy is, knows nothing about his background. They are in a very intense conversation about the dollar value of war assigned to players that should be assigned to players and how people like Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Juan Soto who just signed a $765 million contract and Aaron Judge, they actually might be underpaid. Zurillo, explain what you mean there.
- [15:28]
Chad Millman
Yeah, so baseball players in the market, the free agent market, obviously salaries are suppressed when guys are coming up Their first six years they have to go through arbitration, et cetera. Final three years of arbitration, they're making about 60 to 80% of what they would make on the open market. So once guys hit the open market, teams are usually willing to pay them 8 to 10 million per win. Per win above replacement. Now Aaron Judge was worth last year, if you're assuming 8 million per win, about $90 million in terms of on field value. Forget the marketing, you know, all the endorsements, the ticket sales that your team can bring in as a result of that player. Just his on field value was $90 million. He makes $40 million in salary. So Aaron Judge could theoretically not play at all this season and still be worth what they paid him last year. And this year, just based upon his production last year, Shohei Ohtani is deferring 68 of his $70 million salary annually. Now the Dodders will have to foot that bill at some point, so it's not like you could say they're gaining a huge advantage on his annual salary. But Otani was worth about the same as Judge last year, about $90 million. So who's the most valuable player in baseball relative to what they actually make on the field? Gunner Henderson and Ellie De Cruz are both still in their free arbitration years. They were Both worth about 50 to 60 million in terms of on field value last year, making the major league minimum of 783,000. So these guys were worth about 75 times what they're actually being paid on the field now. Tani, you can factor in again the ticket sales, the inroads to Japan for all future stars, right? What other Japanese star isn't going to want to come and follow Ohtani's footsteps? Roki Sasaki was considering going to the Padres. He idolizes you, Darvish. He still ended up going to the Dodgers. So the pole Otani has, you know, the endorsements, the marketing in Japan, all the jersey sales, all that like you don't factor that into the equation. But if you're Jack's talking about Arnfield value, you know this isn't football, right? You don't need a cheap quarterback in order to be able to build your roster. You have unlimited funds essentially, if you're willing to pay into a luxury tax. But for a team like the Reds, more of a mid market team who can't afford to go into that luxury tax threshold, having a guy like Elliot Cruz who's making 783,000 and providing $50 million in on field value, that's the kind of player you need when you're a team like the Reds in order to be able to make a run and make the playoffs. And I think the Reds are a team who could surprise this year. So having an MVP type candidate making minimum money essentially, you know, in any sport that's going to be valuable. In baseball I actually think it's less valuable than other sports because you can just spend unlimited money but still worth considering. And Gunner and Elliot are the two guys who are near the top of the league, still making the minimum.
- [18:18]
Matt Mitchell
Usually those teams already signed those guys. Like that's the Gunner. Gunner is us like most smart teams try to pay him before the big contract. So it's interesting that they let it run down to the wire here. But you know me and Chad have talked to Naj about how last year I didn't put enough emphasis into the new kickoff rules and the changes the NFL happened. What are the biggest challenges for you heading into this made this major league season with capping baseball because it is different right? Coming to this season there are things that are going to be different. So I would love to hear what your perspective head into the season.
- [18:49]
Chad Millman
Two parks in particular, the A's and the Rays are going to be playing in minor league parks. The Rays are playing in the Yankees minor league park in Tampa Bay. It's the same dimensions in Yankee Stadium which people normally assume is the hitters park. Yankee Stadium is not a haters park. Yankee Stadium is a pitchers park with a very short right field. So because the outfield is a little bit smaller you're actually able to rob more base hits. There's fewer singles from center field and right field. And when those home runs get hit there's fewer guys on base. But if you're putting these games in Tampa now you're increasing all the run scoring because you have warmer weather in Tampa, especially April, May, etc. September when it would start cooling down a little bit and you're going to have different wind patterns as well. Yankee Stadium doesn't really have dramatic wind blowing out to right field necessarily. So the wind and the weather going to be completely different in Tampa because it's normally played in a dome. The Rays typically Tropicana field played about 10% below the major league average. Yankee Stadium is about 3% below the major league average. But if you figure another 5% for wind and weather. Now you're talking about going from a park that was a clear pitchers park to maybe a slightly hitter leaning park. So not just betting right but fantasy dfs. All of these Purposes, the Rays will probably score more runs and their pitchers will probably give up more runs this season. And then the other is the Athletics, who are now playing in Sacramento as compared to Oakland. Way different weather in Sacramento compared to Oakland. But also the A's park, the Coliseum, is one of the best pitchers parks in baseball too. Not only because of the weather being a little bit, you know, cooler at night, giant dimensions, but also the foul territory in that park is enormous. The amount of pop ups you could generate in that park that lead to free outs, that lead to quicker plate appearances compared to minor league park with almost no foul territory is just going to increase the balls in play, going to increase the run scoring, what have you. Brett Rooker is a guy who I think is actually a potential viable major league home run leader candidate this season. He has 28 homers at home, 41 on the road the past two seasons. So if you're giving him an entire season of upgraded offensive park at home and then factoring in those road games too, I think he's a guy who probably easily surpasses 40 home runs this season when he's been sitting in the mid-30s the past couple years. So in general, I think raise and A's overs, maybe early could be undervalued. We'll see how quickly the market accounts for that. I think at most you'll get two or three weeks out of it. If they don't adjust right away and just, you know, in general those teams scoring more runs and allowing more runs this season for fantasy purposes as well, I think you can upgrade the run scoring for both those teams.
- [21:28]
Sean Zerillo
Everyone make a note. Brett Rooker, Oakland A's. What is he going off at to lead the league in home runs? Because I don't want to miss that very tangible betting advice.
- [21:44]
Chad Millman
He's about 30 to 1. I took 80 to 1 earlier in the off season. He's really come down. I've been talking about the park factor thing a bunch. I think other people have caught on to the fact too that projections, baseball projections are usually going to take a weighted three year average of production. They're going to take like 60% of the previous year, you know, 30% of two years ago and 10% of three years ago. But if you're waiting an average of a guy who is now competing in a completely different park in a completely different offensive environment, the weighted average may be missing some of the upgrades that are built into that. So I think in terms of like his home run over prop, et cetera, there's probably Value on Rooker across the board and on a lot of A's players this season. But yeah, 30 to 1 or better on Rooker to leave league in home runs. I think it's definitely worth a poke.
- [22:29]
Sean Zerillo
When you're looking at those park metrics, how are you deciding where to even start? You just mentioned everything from foul territory to weather patterns to warmer weather to wind to the how that stadium of the exact same dimensions plays in New York and what that does to decreasing offense. It's a lot of time, it's a lot to unpack. The data points are infinite. How are you deciding what's going to matter?
- [23:07]
Chad Millman
I'm not doing all the work on my own. Right. It's something that I'm analyzing to figure out why these parks may play different than one another. But we do have park factor adjustments based on these samples of games played in the minor leagues. And the way those are calculated, it takes the average production of guys when they play in their park and then calculates the average production of those teams when they travel to away parks. And it's trying to figure out what percentage increase or decrease they have in various areas to both fields, right to right field or to left field to right handed hitters. Left handed hitters in terms of improving or decreasing the chance for singles, doubles, triples, homers and from there also strikeouts and walks. Different batters eyes in different stadiums can increase strikeouts or increase walks depending on how easy it is to see the ball. Seattle very well known for this. Hitters really struggle to see the ball in Seattle and as a result their pitchers perform better and hitters generally perform worse. Willie Thomas in Tampa Bay he struggled to see he had an eyesight issue. He struggled to see the ball with the white roof in Tampa Bay he went to Milwaukee, he and broke out as a hitter. So there's a lot of like little nuance things with guys home versus road. But even the batter's eye is something people don't really think of. From one park to the next. It's actually just easier to see the baseball coming out of the pitcher's hand. But it's not work that I have to do manually. We have park factors over multiple years. Generally three years is enough to have a sufficient sample. So we'll use rolling three year samples. But you can basically just take the the differential between how teams perform on at home, how they perform on the road, how teams coming in there perform in their home park and then perform coming in. And we know roughly compared to league average how to adjust things up or down. We talked about the Tokyo Dome a bunch last week, you know, on the, on the Payoff Pitch podcast. In terms of the games being played there. We have Japanese averages for that park and we know based upon the dimensions that that park should increase home runs. We clearly see that increase in the park factors because the outfield walls there from right field to center field, it's more of a straight line. Most major league parks are going to be a little bit more rounded. The Tokyo Dome is a little bit more diagonal to center field. So those power rallies are a little bit shorter. And sure enough, in the data you see an increase in home run factor, but a decrease for both singles and doubles because outfielders are able to get to more of those balls because the power rallies are not as deep. So you want to see the, the numbers and the data, but then you want to actually look at the park and make sure it checks out intuitively with the data you actually have. And when the Jays, for example, played in a, a ballpark in Dunedin a couple of years ago, we didn't have a sufficient sample going into that season. And that park ended up playing like a severe offensive park. Once you put major league hitters in it, you have to remember that too. And that's something to factor in as well. These are minor league hitters with minor league power and minor league pitch velocities playing in this park. Once you got pitchers throwing a little bit harder, once you have hitters swinging the bat a little bit harder, the balls are in general are going to fly a little bit further. So you do have to upgrade the offensive environment slightly based upon the major league velocities. But in general, we do know how the parks in those leagues play relative to one another.
- [26:21]
Sean Zerillo
All right, a lot of rule changes every year in baseball.
- [26:26]
Chad Millman
Maybe next year, the automated ball strike next year.
- [26:28]
Sean Zerillo
They're always fucking with something.
- [26:30]
Chad Millman
Yep.
- [26:32]
Sean Zerillo
The rules, pitch clock, last year, everything. So the pitch clock, which I thought.
- [26:36]
Chad Millman
Was great, and there's always going to be unintended consequences. And this is what I found most interesting about last year. With the pitch clock, there's less time to reload for pitchers and hitters. Right. So as MLB changed the baseball in 2019, we set a record for home runs. MLB said this is too many home runs, let's introduce humidors, let's change the baseball. That became like a two or three year process. They introduced new baseballs several times. I'm constantly monitoring the drag coefficient data on baseball savant. That said, we've had proof based upon baseballs that they've caught in the stands and people have sliced open that they've used different batches of baseballs simultaneously. You may have had a batter come to the plate and within the same plate appearance get fed different batches of baseballs that Some may fly 10ft further than the other. So it's almost impossible to account for everything. That said, we do our best with the information we have available. And something I noticed last year is you always have to pay attention to unintended consequences of rule changes. For example, with the pitch clock, I think batters and pitchers did not have as much time to reload and get back to their maximum swing velocity or pitch velocity between pitches. So even though last year the baseball stayed exactly the same, based on the data that we have, and that means the home run, a five ball rate should have remained steady, it actually decreased. Why? Well, it's probable that when you have pitchers who are throwing 97% of their maximum velocity, or hitters who are swinging 95% of their maximum swing velocity because they don't have 40 seconds to reload between pitches, they only have 30 seconds, you're just going to see a slight reduction in how hard those balls could be hit. Typically a batted ball is about 80% pitcher, 20% hitter. So if you're just taking a little bit off of both, you know, the ball is going to fly, fly 5ft less, 10ft less, and you're going to end up with a few more fly balls instead of homers. But then you also have the two year data sample where they got rid of the shift. And as a result you're going to have batters trying to hit the ball and play more, right? Not trying to put the ball out as much necessarily, maybe the, the construct of these rosters, the type of players that comes into the league may change a little bit. You're going to get guys who are a little bit more contact oriented who can handle that. So I think, you know, regardless of the rule changes, regardless of the impact you think it might have, there's always going to be downstream effects as a result that you can't account for. And those are the things that you can actually try to mine from the data. And that's going to be where your edge is. Because people always, you know, by the time people are talking about an edge that they see in the market, the guardians thing, for example, last year, that means it's likely already factored into it. If you want to mine data points yourself, be very quiet about it and you know, act upon Those edges as long as you can. But usually, as I said, you're never going to get more than two or three weeks out of that edge.
- [29:26]
Matt Mitchell
I mean, what an insane time though, as a baseball fan, like, I know you just casually mentioned it, but the fact that we're in a sport that from stadium, stadium, the balls are different and there, there's different things inside these said balls. Any other sport, I feel like people will be taking to the streets. But baseball, lucky for them, it's the most relaxed, laid back fans. I mean, just outside of Philly, of course. But like, seriously though, like, I can't get over how casual you just said that. Where it's like, that's insane. That is insane to think they're messing with the balls that way. Because I knew that was true and I've heard the rumors about it, but that's like last year, I remember what you're talking about. People are cutting the balls open. Everyone was like, what the fuck is going on here? So that's crazy. That's where we're at with baseball. Like I, I hate it, but at the same time I love it because it's the most bizarre sport. Like as someone that tries to explain the sport to people that come over from England, I'm like, it's like cricket, but it's not, it's, it's such an American sport. It's so bizarre in so many ways. But let's, let's get back to this season. What team do you think has improved the most since last season? Head into this year, are there any teams that really jump out to you.
- [30:33]
Chad Millman
Other than above replacement? It's the mats in terms of all the.
- [30:37]
Matt Mitchell
I knew you got a net, Sean. I knew you're gonna go to the Mets.
- [30:39]
Chad Millman
Well, but it's not a team I actually have bets on this season. And by all projections right now, the under is the play on the Mets. I think the market is clearly factoring in them making additions throughout the season. This is the best farm system they've had in a while. There's multiple guys, Dylan C's, Luis Robert who are good fits for them, who they may go out and acquire. So I think the market is expecting the Mets to make additional moves. By my, you know, this is nothing to do with me. By independent like wins above replacement projections, they have improved the most. The teams that I like the most compared to market coming into the year are Texas, Atlanta, Arizona and probably Cincinnati. Arizona seems to be a pretty sharp play amongst people who I trust in the betting space. You know, People at a high level and I view them as a very safe playoff team. The problem is they have almost no path to winning division. There's about a 16 win gap between them and the Dodgers across every projection system. And even accounting for like the widest level of standard deviation, there's almost no path. Mookie Betts continues to weigh 150 pounds, you know, and that remains a concern for the Dodgers. Certainly livens it up a little bit for Arizona, but I think Arizona is very live. I mean, they're basically top five in lineup. They finished first in run and scored last year. They have the fifth or sixth best rotation. They're top five bullpen. They might be the best base running team in baseball. And they're probably a top five defensive team too. So they don't do anything wrong solving the World Series two years ago. The team they were with, who beat them, the Texas Rangers, had a down year last year. Arizona also didn't make the playoffs. Texas completely retooled their bullpen. They have seven new relievers in their bullpen. They have two high end pitching prospects who they drafted in the first round. This is also the healthiest Jacob deGrom has been in years. You know, Jacob deGrom has the widest range of outcomes of any player in baseball this year. If you could tell me the final season stat line for one player this year in advance, I'd want it to be Jacob deGrom because I think you could do a lot with that information in terms of betting Cy Young or strikeout leader or just knowing how good the Rangers are going to be during the regular season. But Texas across the board I think is the best team in the AL West. I think they're the second best team in the American League. I like them to get a buy. I like Texas to potentially win the American League. And I think those two teams, as I said, who made the World Series two years ago together, who kind of surprised Texas and Arizona down years last year, I like both a lot coming into this year. And then Atlanta, you know, Atlanta won 89 games last year without Acuna or Strider for most of the season. They lost Max Freed. They have pitchers who I'm a little bit more confident in replacing lost innings than I think the market is. But across the board, the public projection market views Atlanta as a value bet. The lowest projection on them has them at like +104 to win the division. The average projections have them about 60% and minus 150. And you can still get plus money. I think plus 130. I took plus 170 earlier in the offseason. So Atlanta should bounce back this year if Schroeder to come back healthy. And I think that's the biggest World Series threat aside from the Dodgers.
- [33:44]
Sean Zerillo
Simon the best part about baseball is it offers so many ways to participate. Some people play baseball. They wind up to deliver a pitch. They squat deeply to catch a low fastball, they slide headfirst into home. Others are watching baseball. They adjust themselves on a bleacher, they swivel on a bar stool. Or like our producer Matt Mitchell, they're furiously pedaling an exercise bike as they sweat an ill advised first inning bet. Regardless of how you participate, whether you're winding up or squatting or sliding or swiveling, you can only perform at your best when you're comfortable. And nobody keeps you comfortable. From the dugout to the warning track like our beloved sponsor Tommy John. Go from spring training to the dog days of summer with seventh inning stretchable comfort by visiting tommyjohn.com favorites and hit a walk off home run of value for high performance casual essentials because with a special sale for our listeners, legging out life's doubles in resplendent breathable luxury just got even easier. Simon why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?
- [35:03]
Matt Mitchell
Because comfort is king right now.
- [35:05]
Sean Zerillo
You can shop. TommyJohn got TommyJohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at TommyJohn.com favorites that's TommyJohn.com favorites Matt Mitchell opening up the Pun playbook for today's Tommy John ad.
- [35:27]
Chad Millman
Read Geico's motorcycle expertise means I'm covered by people who know bikes like I do. I'm happy as a clam. No conclusive scientific research has shown clams can experience happiness.
- [35:38]
Mel Reid
It just meant that I feel really good about my coverage.
- [35:40]
Chad Millman
I mean, even if you took the climb out for the best day ever, visiting the zoo, taking a scenic ride, knowing you're insured by specialists, and sharing a strawberry ice cream cone together, the clam would not feel happy and your strawberry cone would taste sort of clammy. Geico's motorcycle specialists who know bikes like you do assume no liability for clammy ice cream cones. Geico Expertise for your motorcycle It's Julie Stewart Banks.
- [36:00]
Julie Stewart-Banks
I'm doing a new podcast from iHeart Podcasts and the National Hockey League and I'm paired up with one of my favorite players, the always corporate quotable Nate Thompson.
- [36:08]
Nate Thompson
I wore nine NHL sweaters and I have story after story to share. And believe it or not, I have plenty to say. And not just about hockey.
- [36:16]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Believe me, he does. Energy Line with Nate and JSB is the name of the podcast and it's going to be, well, it's going to be quite the ride. We're officially linemates, Nate. We're the energy Line.
- [36:28]
Nate Thompson
We'll have plenty of folks join us, current players, some of my former teammates, hall of Famers. And wait till you see some of the connections that Julie has. She has quite the Rolodex.
- [36:37]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Okay. We'll lean into Nate's playing experience and tap into our interests away from hockey and try to do what energy lines are supposed to do, provide an emotional boost. How do you feel about all that, Nate?
- [36:49]
Nate Thompson
I'm vibing, Julie. I'm ready to roll.
- [36:52]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Listen to Energy Line with Nate and jsb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [36:59]
Mel Reid
Hey, this is Mel Reid, LPGA Tour winner and six time Ladies European Tour winner.
- [37:04]
Kira K. Dixon
And Kira K. Dixon, NBC sports reporter and host.
- [37:07]
Mel Reid
You forgot to say warmer. Miss America, by the way. And we've got a new podcast, Quiet Please with Mel and Kira.
- [37:14]
Kira K. Dixon
We are bringing you spicy takes on sports and pop culture, some golf haps and interviews with incredible people who have figured out how to make golf their.
- [37:22]
Mel Reid
Superpower or just people we like. Plus tales from the road and everything in between. By the way, golf isn't just for the dads, Brads and chads.
- [37:29]
Kira K. Dixon
Yeah, it's actually life's cheat code and we're not going to be quiet about it on or off the course. We're bringing on some of our friends like Michelle We, Heather McMahon, Amanda Baliotis.
- [37:40]
Mel Reid
So if you want to keep up with us, and here is yap, tune into our new podcast, Listen to Quiet.
- [37:45]
Kira K. Dixon
Please with Mel and Kira, an iHeart women's sports production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports, Sports and Entertainment. You can find us on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.
- [38:00]
Sean Zerillo
Sean, before Thursday arrives, you've mentioned some of your favorite futures bets. Give us your absolute favorites you've made so far.
- [38:12]
Chad Millman
Corbin Carroll, runs leader. It's my favorite player prop to lead the major league and runs. I made this about 9 to 1 in terms of projecting it out. Modeled these, you know, ran it through 10,000 Sims. He wins this about 10 to 11% of the time. He was awful at the start of the year last year, I think he came into the season banged up. He still finished fifth in baseball with 120 run run scored. He led the league in the second half and what he started doing in the second half was pulling fly balls in the air. It's the best way to get to your power in baseball. You can find the stat on baseball savant now, Pole air percentage. It's a great stat to look at to find guys who are increasing their power, raising that percentage throughout the season. It's very evident Carol was trying to get to more pulled fly balls later in the year. And because he's so fast, he gets the second or third automatically on those pulled fly balls to right field. So Carol walks a ton. Not a guy you want to bet for hits leader, but he should be on second base basically every time he gets on base because he steals it or because he hits a double down the line. Love him to lead the league in runs this year. Betted at 21. I take that at 10 to 1 or better. Jacob deGrom, I mentioned Al Cy Young also lead the league and strikeouts at 41. I just think that's a fun long shot prop considering his upside. When you're betting bets like this, you're assuming everybody's going to get hurt, right? I'm factoring in an injury percentage to every single player. Even the safest guys are still going to get hurt 20% of the time. Even if you assume deGrom gets hurt 70% of the time, he's still a decent bet at 4 to 1 to lead the league in strikeouts. I think the Jays are a value team, the AL East. You know, I'm kind of down on the Yankees this year. Yankees to miss the playoffs in general, the under now that Garrett Cole's hurt, there's really not a lot of depth on the Yankees. I think there's a real chance that you get like a goofy group of three teams from the AL east to make the playoffs, like the Red Sox, the Orioles and then one of the Razor Jays. There's a lot of value, projected value on the Jays right now in the betting market. I would bet their win total over 79 and a half, 78 and a half. But if you want to bet longer shot props on them. Vlad to win AL MVP at 15 to 1 to be the hits leader at around the same price, RBI leader at 30 to 1. Their divisional odds are about 12 to 1, 11 1. I think if they're going to get there, Vlad is probably going to need to catch cash some of those props or get very Close to it. So I'd rather take the better numbers. Very similar betting approach. The Cincinnati Reds who I mentioned before, they're about 5 to 1 to win the division. Terry Francona in a lot of markets is a better number to win NL Manager of the Year. I just think a lot of these bets are sort of correlated, highly correlated to one another where if the Reds they may not even need to win the division, they may just get in with the wild card and Frank cone wins manager of the Year. So there might be some ways to bet these teams that you can find player markets or awards markets that are almost directly correlated to those outcomes happening that you can bet better numbers on. Just want to talk about three more player props before we get out of here. Logan Gilbert, AL Cy Young. He was the second half strikeout minus walk leader. His velocity increased. Last year he changed his pitch mix. Love Gilbert. This year Chris Sanchez and Elsia51. It seems like a long shot considering he's probably the second or third best pitcher on his team behind Zach Wheeler. This is a guy though. His velocity is up three miles an hour in spring training again. You know, you could project all this stuff out, right, take averages, etc. You have to keep a close eye on improvements guys are making mechanically or in terms of velocity or pitch mixes in spring training. That's where you're going to find the real value in these bets is combining the math with the scouting. I try to blend it as much as I can. A recorder, Jacob Wilson of the A's. I talked about them being a big offensive park this year. This guy could hit.300. He blew through the minors. I think he only played 70 games in the minor leagues. He hit over.400 in the minors last year. Came up to the bigs second game, tore his hamstring or strained his hamstring and was basically out for the rest of the season. So this was a guy who was hitting like 430 in double A and AAA. It looked like he was going to be a rookie of the year candidate last year. Hamstring set him back. I think he's primed to go for 20, 25 in a park that I think is going to really score a lot of runs. So yeah, those are, those are some of my favorite player props. As I said, the Yankees to miss, the Phillies under and then the best bet on the board is the Guardians to miss the playoffs. I'm. I'm the highest in the market on the guardians. I'm at minus 240 on them to miss. I'm at 29% for them to make it. Everybody else is at 25% or below. So, you know, just mathematically the Guardians is a massive edge. That's like a 15% edge at minus 140 compared to an average projection of minus 275. Minus 375 if you throw mine away. Yeah, that's definitely worth betting into. I added it back to the Action Network app for a third time today. It's the third time I've been it this offseason. It's still a substantial edge. I bet it at minus 120, minus 110 and now minus 140. So if you're going to place one bet, guardians to miss the playoffs I think is a huge edge.
- [43:11]
Matt Mitchell
Let's get to it. Sean, Everyone knows I'm northeast biased. NL east, the best division in baseball. The story lines are crazy. Like as a Phillies fan, I think as a fan base, we're sick of underachieving and not getting the World Series. And I think ownership is kind of the same view. They've spent the money, we got the players. The excuses are getting a little wear and thin. We're old now. Like most our guys are above 30, which in baseball you don't want to be at. I mean the Mets, obviously, you know, they've spent the money, the ownership has come in, they've spent the money, they built an incredible team. Obviously they went to a World Series. They're a great team. Now, like you said Atlanta, they might be the best team in the division. And there were horrible injury luck like their injury luck. I don't know what their ownership, whoever did something over there has done something wrong in their past, but they have the most insane injury like I've ever seen for a baseball team. Like literally their best players would have season ending injuries, like brutal, brutal losses. And from your perspective, what are you seeing in this division specifically? That's everyone's just talking about the NL lease so much. Is it just me being Northeast bias or is this really a really top heavy division right now?
- [44:22]
Chad Millman
I believe by odds they have three of the top five World Series favorites. The Braves, the Mets and the Phillies are all in the top five for World Series odds. So I think that's justified in terms of talking about these three teams. The Phillies won it last year. I think most people projected him as third best or second best going into last year. I have them third best going into this year at 85 wins on the Phillies. I think they're on the downslope of this, you know, competitive window. Harper, Turner, Schwerber, Castellanos, Real, Muto, Willard, Nola. They're going to turn 33 on average this year. On average. So you have a, a year, maybe two left at best of championship window. I think Sanchez, like I said, is emerging, you know, gives them another guy. But there's really not many spots that this team can improve. There's not many areas where they can go out and trade for somebody to improve it. Like the rotation is already on the DL. Yeah, Suarez on the DL. They have Andrew Painter, who's one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. So you know that that can like supplement that loss. But the bullpen is probably only going to get worse relative to last year. They had one of the best bullpens in baseball last year too. Bullpens are one of the least sticky things year to year. You know, bullpen variance. Your bullpen doesn't throw that many innings. So bullpens fluctuate greatly from one year to the next. That's, you know, another reason why the Guardians, I think I'm down on them this year, the brewers, why I'm down on them this year. Those were two teams I bet last year based upon bullpen quality. I think both are likely to take a step back this season. And I kind of view the Phillies in the same way. The Phillies are one of the best win total under bets on the board in my opinion. Nobody has them higher than 90 wins. I have them at 84.7. The lowest out there aside for me is at 86, but again 86 to 90. The average is about 87. You can bet an under 90 one and a half. I think that's fine. Or just bet the Braves to win the division. And as I said, the Mets are also a little bit overvalued right now, but they are likely to add pieces likelier to add pieces than almost anybody else in season this year. So yeah, it's bra. It's Braves, Mets, Phillies. Right now I'd probably put it Braves, Phillies, Mets. But I'm forecasting additions for the Mets at some point.
- [46:25]
Sean Zerillo
I love. Sorry Simon, did you have a follow up there?
- [46:28]
Matt Mitchell
No, no, fire away.
- [46:29]
Sean Zerillo
I love listening to Simon talk about the Phillies because you're such a dead eyed pro to me. And even though I know you have such a deep abiding passion for the Eagles and it doesn't come out during the season because you're so professional about the numbers you make and the bets you make, the conversations we have that it's not the same as when you're talking about the Phillies. I might want to do a hockey podcast only to talk about the Flyers. And here you go, full flyer fanatic, like. Because that would be pure joy. Because I can see it. I know you're willing. You're wearing your Phillies jersey today. I've been to Phillies games with you before. I feel like you've gone to the. Didn't you go to a Phillies World Series game when they were in it?
- [47:24]
Matt Mitchell
Yeah, brother, I was at the Phillies. No hitter again.
- [47:28]
Sean Zerillo
That's right. Yes, that's right.
- [47:30]
Matt Mitchell
Most painful memory as a Phillies fan of my life.
- [47:32]
Sean Zerillo
And so, like, hearing you, like, ask questions as a fan and not a better is actually just pure joy because I'm with Sean.
- [47:41]
Matt Mitchell
I'm fired up where it's like, it's a really small window that they. They've done themselves into here. Like, we basically burn the boats. Like, it's. This is it. All of our guys are super old in baseball. Sean even talked about it. It's the most random thing ever. A guy can be perfect in the minors come up, he runs too hard because he's too excited in his second game in the league. Tears a hamstring. Like, it's so fickle in this sport. So, yeah, to me, obviously, Sean can probably see it. I'm scared of the Mets. I'm scared of Atlanta. Like, as a Phillies fan, they're younger and on paper, they're kind of better. A lot of the, Like, a lot of the nerds I know are kind of preaching what Sean's preaching here. It's like, no, these are undervalued teams. The Mets are, of course, going to be overvalued just because the market they're in. But Atlanta, that's. They're the perfect sleeper team to what Sean's talked about when the division make a run to the World Series. And I hate it. I hate Atlanta Braves. So it's painful to hear, but it's like everything he says just feels like the truth.
- [48:37]
Chad Millman
Coming into last year, Atlanta and the Dodgers were both projected across the market for about 100 wins. They were like neck and neck with each other. There were some projection systems that thought the Braves were a better team going into last year than the Dodgers. Now, all of their offensive players were coming off of career last year. They all had, you know, struggling seasons or got injured or down seasons, Right? So if they find somewhere in the middle of those two years where career years versus everything went wrong, they still won 89 games in a year when everything wrong. I mean, the floor for this team is extremely high. The floor for the Phillies is pretty high too. You know, there's projections out there that say the Phillies are a good bet to miss the playoffs. It's not something I'm betting just because the floor for this team is so high, the rotation so deep. You know, even if these offensive players decline, like this team still wins 85 games pretty comfortably. I just don't know if they have the ceiling to win 95 again if the Braves are going to be healthy and if the Mets are going to be better.
- [49:32]
Sean Zerillo
I need the Phillies to be great for TikTok because they're my favorite. TikTok is Phillies fans in the playoffs reacting to Game winning hits by Bryce Harper. It's just my and Nick Castellanos like those are my favorite TikToks ever want to make extra money daily from your sports betting? Simon knows I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell you about Edge Boost, the financial platform that pays you cash back to wager. Edgeboost is an online bank account that pays you for every deposit. With the Edge Boost Visa debit card, you receive up to half a percent cash back on all your sportsbook, daily fantasy site and casino transactions. That's free money back in your pocket for doing what you're already doing. It's a no brainer. Plus, your Edge Boost debit card starts with a $250,000 daily limit and will never be declined for gambling activity. They've got built in tools to help you stay responsible and there are absolutely no hidden fees or minimum required balances. So stop leaving money on the table. Visit edgeboost Bet to sign up. If you use Promo code favorites and deposit $25, you'll receive a $25 deposit match plus tier 2 status for faster bank deposits and more cash back. That's Edge boost.bet promo code Favorites It's Julie Stewart Banks.
- [51:08]
Julie Stewart-Banks
I'm doing a new podcast from iHeart Podcasts and the National Hockey League and I'm paired up with one of my favorite players, the always quotable Nate Thompson.
- [51:16]
Nate Thompson
I wore nine NHL sweaters and I have story after story to share. And believe it or not, I have plenty to say. And not just about hockey.
- [51:23]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Believe me, he does Energy Line with Nate and JSB is the name of the podcast and it's going to be. Well, it's going to be quite the ride. We're officially linemates, Nate. We're the Energy line.
- [51:35]
Nate Thompson
We'll have plenty of folks join us, current players, some of my former teammates, hall of Famers, and wait to see some of the connections that Julie has. She has quite the Rolodex.
- [51:45]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Okay, we'll lean into Nate's playing experience and tap into our interests away from hockey and try to do what energy lines are supposed to do, provide an emotional boost. How do you feel about all that, Nate?
- [51:56]
Nate Thompson
I'm vibing Julie. I'm ready to roll.
- [51:59]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Listen to EnergyLine with Nate and JSB on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [52:07]
Mel Reid
Hey, this is Mel Reed, LPGA Tour winner and six time Ladies European Tour.
- [52:11]
Kira K. Dixon
Winner and Kyra K. Dixon, NBC sports reporter and host.
- [52:15]
Mel Reid
You forgot to say warmer. Miss America, by the way. And we've got a new podcast podcast, Quiet Please with Mel and Kira.
- [52:22]
Kira K. Dixon
We are bringing you spicy takes on sports and pop culture, some golf haps and interviews with incredible people who have figured out how to make golf their.
- [52:30]
Mel Reid
Superpower or just people we like. Plus tales from the road and everything in between. By the way, golf isn't just for the dads, Brads and chads.
- [52:37]
Kira K. Dixon
Yeah, it's actually life's cheat code and we're not going to be quiet about it on or off the course. We're bringing on some of our friends like Michelle, we, Heather McMahon, Amanda Baliotis.
- [52:47]
Mel Reid
So if you want to keep up with us, and here is yap, tune into our new podcast, listen to Quiet.
- [52:52]
Kira K. Dixon
Please with Mel and Kira, an iHeart women's sports production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. You can find us on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.
- [53:07]
Sean Zerillo
All right, Sean, before we get outta here, we talked about Beth365. It just went live. And in Illinois. I'm not going to ask you about the Cubs. I'm going to ask you about what was a Chernobyl of a season for the Chicago White Sox. I would go home, like visit family during the summer and my dad still subscribes to the paper version of the Chicago Sun Times. And when I was there in the summer, they were in the midst of the most epic, historic, record breaking losing streak. And for like three days I was reading it every morning just for the pure comedy and like dark comedy of all of it. Explain how historically inept the White Sox were last year, how rare that was and could they be this bad this season?
- [53:57]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I believe they did. They finished with the worst or the second worst winning percentage of all time. I can't recall if they ended up breaking the record or not, but coming into the year, they were projected by basically every system to win like 60 games. They underachieved by 20 plus wins. Now, the Giants, you remember a couple years ago, ended up winning the NL West. They won like 100 plus games in that season. They beat the Dodgers. They overachieved compared to public projections by about the same number of WINS, by about 20, 24 wins. So the White Sox underachieved last season by about as much as the Giants overachieved two years ago when they won the no. West. That's just like an interesting parallel to think about, about how far above or below expectations you have to play. Because I said with the daughters and D backs this year, it's about a 15 win gap on average between those two teams. That's like roughly what the Giants had to overcome two years ago. Maybe even a little bit more than that. These are 1% outcomes in terms of these things actually happening. Maybe even less than 1%. You know, the Giants were a 99th percentile outcome. The White Sox were a 1 percentile outcome last year. Now everybody sees them winning like at least 55 games this year. 60 games this year. I think I have them at around 55 to 57 wins. A 13 win, 15 win improvement would feel like a fucking miracle with that team. Like Colin Whitchurch, our resident Chicago White Sox fan, used to be on payoff pitch podcast with me, our former MLB editor. He, he thinks this team is worse than the team that they had coming into last year. I believe that they've had six pitchers get Tommy John surgery this month. Six. That's a lot. Schomburg, who's starting for them on opening day, I think is the rookie of the year candidate. He looks really solid. They traded Garrett Crochet, though, to the Red Sox for Kyle Thiel and other prospects. Crochet was like most of their, yeah, he's by far their best player last year. Luis Robert didn't play a lot of time. They may trade Luis Robert this year. So by the end of the year, this team probably is worse than the team that they had last year. It's just a question of, like these young pitchers that they have coming up, these young position players. They have coming up what they actually produce. Because last year there was no guys on the team basically who are going to be part of their next competitive team. This year they're starting to move in younger guys who they plan to actually be part of their future. So these younger guys actually give them contributions. At the MLB level, it's a bit more difficult to project because we haven't seen them and they're coming up from the Miners, but by all accounts they're expected to be as good of a team as they were last year. On paper, I just have no interest in betting they're over, but compared to the public average projection out there, there's like a nine win value on their over. I think they're at 53 and a half and the average public projection is at like 62 and a half. No thank you, I'm not interested. And if you want to lay like minus 10,000 the White Sox to miss the playoffs, I actually think there's a slight edge on that this year, but you won't find me laying that money for seven months Right before we came.
- [56:58]
Sean Zerillo
On the air, we were talking about how we're going to Chicago for our bet365 event, and Simon was saying how he had looked for tickets for Cubs games and there weren't any because they're not home this weekend. But then he was looking at White Sox and immediately Matt Mitchell and I were like, no, you're not spending a second of your time in Chicago in March going to a White Sox game. I'm glad we dissuaded him of that notion. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and is now live in my native state of Illinois. New bet365 customers, including those in Illinois, get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5, sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary at BET365, especially in Illinois, must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa terms. Conditions Restrictions apply. I want to thank Sean Zurillo for his amazing, in depth, excellent, thoughtful, analytical baseball analysis. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday, 11am Eastern talking about the Sweet Sixteen with Stuckey preview of what we'll be doing in Chicago at Joe's on Weed RSVP RSVP link in the episode Description Download us from Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review Subscribe Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available.
- [59:06]
Chad Millman
247 at 1-800- gambler what's up y'all?
- [59:09]
AJ Andrews
I'm AJ Andrews, pro softball player, sports analyst and the first woman to win a Rawlings Gold Glove on my new podcast, Dropping Diamonds. We dive headfirst into the world of softball by sharing powerful stories, insights and conversations that inspire and empower. It's time to drop bombs and diamonds. Dropping diamonds with AJ Andrews is an iHeart women's sports production in partnership with Athletes Unlimited Softball League and Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. Listen to dropping diamonds with AJ Andrews on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
- [59:41]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports Network. What's up everyone? Julie Swerbinks here along with former NHL player Nate Thompson.
- [59:51]
Nate Thompson
We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go.
- [59:54]
Julie Stewart-Banks
The name Energy Line with Nate and jsb.
- [59:57]
Nate Thompson
Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey life. All topics are fair game, right?
- [60:02]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Exactly. And you'll never know who will drop by to join us.
- [60:06]
Nate Thompson
Julius Prick. Well connected. She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.
- [60:11]
Julie Stewart-Banks
Listen to Energy Line with Nate and jsb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [60:19]
Mel Reid
This is Mel Reed, LPGA Tour winner and six time Ladies European Tour winner.
- [60:23]
Kira K. Dixon
And Kira K. Dixon, NBC Sports reporter and host.
- [60:26]
Mel Reid
And we've got a new podcast, Quiet please. With Mel and Kira.
- [60:30]
Kira K. Dixon
We are bringing you spicy takes on sports and pop culture, some interviews with incredible people who have figured out how to make golf their superpower and iheart.
- [60:38]
Mel Reid
Wins Sports production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. You can find us on iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [60:45]
Kira K. Dixon
Presented by Elf Beauty, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.
- [60:49]
Simon Hunter
Tickets are on sale now y'all for our 2025 iHeart Country Festival presented by Capital One, happening Saturday, May 3rd at the Moody center in Austin, Texas. Don't miss your chance to C. Brooks and Dunn Thomas Rhett Rascal Flat, Cole Swindell, Sam Hunt, Megan Moroney, Bailey Zimmerman, Nate Smith. Tickets are on sale now@ticketmaster.com.