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- [00:00]
iHeart Podcast
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
Discover
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- [00:35]
Degree
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- [01:02]
Colin Cowherd
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- [01:43]
Almond Joy
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- [01:45]
DSW
Part of, well, everything.
- [01:48]
Uber Eats
From first steps to first dates. From all nighters to all all time personal best.
- [01:53]
Colin Cowherd
From building pillow forts to building a.
- [01:56]
Uber Eats
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- [02:21]
Shad Millman
Welcome to the favorites the Pop Podcast. I am Shad Millman of the Action Network. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. Today I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [02:44]
Simon Hunter
Chad. How we doing brother dude, we had.
- [02:47]
Shad Millman
A little date night last week, you and I, we shared a cheesesteak in Philly. We ate it on the back of your trunk. Just sitting on the bumper cars trying to go down one way streets, horns blaring, bicycle cops coming around, not even taking notice of the way you're illegally parked. We went to the Phillies game. It was a perfect night in Philly. And I will contend that one of the best sort of leisurely sports experiences is going to Citizens bank ballpark to watch the Phillies on a beautiful night with my BFF Simon.
- [03:33]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it was a good night. Picked you up in the M8. Love showing off the car and BMW. I know that you guys used to sponsor JJ Reddick's podcast. He's gone, never coming back. If you want to come sponsor me and Chad, I literally drive an M8. Come sponsor our show. BMW, please. Yeah, picked up Chad and I thought to myself, can Chad eat a whole cheese steak? And I thought to myself, can I eat a whole cheese steak before this baseball game? That's risky move because we're about to be sitting in a ballpark for four hours. So I took the, I took the Del Rossi, which is, you know, if you're a local, you know the spot. It's known for its pizza and there's cheese steaks and yeah, gave you the authentic experience. Eating on the back of the car, I feel like is a very city thing to do. And like Chad said, not a single person paid us any type of mind. That's how, you know, just normal it is in Philadelphia. And yeah, the baseball game wise, you know, great seats. Chad and I have done enough gambling and been in enough baseball games. We knew that game was over within I think what was a four nothing at one point in Atlanta. And we both turned to each other and just basically said, this game's over and our under bet is dead. Of course it was.
- [04:38]
Shad Millman
No, no, no, no, no. That's not how it went. Number one, I will tell you, I had half a cheesesteak. I don't think I've had as many calories combined since we saw each other as I had in that one half of a cheesesteak. Number two, it was Zach Wheeler, Chris Sale. The game was rolling. Nothing, nothing. Everything's going great. And you looked at me at one point and you said, how about that under? And I said, well, I said, what the fuck is your problem? Have you never gambled before? That's like the most mush thing you could say. Literally the top half of the next inning, the Braves score two runs. They got men on first and third. They had a double. No, they got. They've scored two runs. I look at you, I don't even say anything, and you go, we're fine. As long as we avoid the meltdown, we're fine. Next batter, double. Two more scored. It's four nothing. Then. Then the Phillies strand the bases loaded. So then it's still four nothing. And then it's like a pitching change in the sixth. We're like, let's get out of here. We get to the car and because your ma drives at the speed of light. We were at my hotel and by the time I passed the bar, which was 15 minutes later, Phillies were down eight nothing. And they haven't once.
- [06:15]
Simon Hunter
We did get a lovely sunset, though, Chad, which made it all worth it.
- [06:17]
Shad Millman
We got a lovely sunset. I texted it to my family. Not a single person responded. Listen, we got a big, big show today because the NBA Finals tip off. You know how much I love the NBA. I know you love the NBA. The Oklahoma City Thunder have been amazing in these playoffs. Just defensive monsters. Shea Gilgis Alexander has been obviously dominant offensively. Jalen Williams has been amazing to me. The Pacers, sure, they're a surprise, but in the second round, I remember sitting, watching the games and I said to my kid, I feel like the only team in the Eastern Conference running any offensive plays right now are the Indiana Pacers. And if there is justice in this world, we are going to get the two most sound, competent, high IQ teams playing in the finals. The Pacers and the Thunder. That's what we're getting. Thank God. NBA Analyst Action Network og One of the most respectable, respected media voices in the NBA. One of the original, original analytics gurus in the NBA, covering everything NBA plays on buckets. Our man Matt Moore. My brother, dude, I know, like, the world isn't thrilled. It's OKC and indie. I couldn't be happier. I think it's the, the. It's going to be the best basketball played that we could have possibly gotten.
- [07:51]
DSW
Yeah, it's going to be like if, if, if two teams got together and every hoop head loved it and nobody heard it. What does it make a sound? That's, that's the question here. And you know what? Like, I muted ratings on social media because I'm just like, I don't care, man. This is gonna be an awesome series. You got Indiana plan. They play so up tempo, it's not even like pace. It's not just fast break stuff, but they play. They are in your, in your face, at your throat. Every single possession. I've likened them to a punk rock team where they're just like every single song, they are going right for the kill. That's how they play. And then you got Oklahoma City, who have seriously bent my brain as far as usually with turnovers, I'm like, well, you know, you can always like play sound and avoid. Nope, not versus okc. They're just taking the ball from you, going the other direction. It's going to be, I think, a really fun series of games. It's going to be a lot of athleticism, a lot of young guys. This is the, the thunder of the second youngest team to make the final since the 77 Blazers. They'd be the second youngest team to win the title since the 77 Blazers. Pacers are on the young side. It's a new era in the NBA. Can't, can't wait to watch the series.
- [09:03]
Shad Millman
Yeah, it's interesting because they are both so good defensively. Also incredibly high IQ teams. I keep, I look at the Pacers and I feel like their floor is so high. You know, obviously their ceiling is higher than anyone thought because they're, they've made it to the finals, but the floor of their baseline of competency is just so high and they're so complimentary. Nemhar, who got so much credit in game six guarding Brunson, has been like that for two years as sort of a defensive stopper, a guy who can dribble to the middle of the lane to get his shot. Normally it's going in a great mid range. Like, I love, love this team. And defensively, the way they play, as you point out, it's so different. The Pacers are so freaking physical. They might not get as many turnovers. Although the Knicks, you know, were incompetent. The Thunder, it feels like sometimes you can't get past center court because when they've got Caruso in there and Jalen Williams in there, their arms are so long, they're on every passing lane. They're brilliant defensively and so different defensively.
- [10:20]
DSW
Yeah, okc. I haven't seen a defense like this in a long time. Like, you got to go back to 04 Pistons to get a team this good defensively. 15 warriors is up there, but I think this team is legitimately better defensively. Their ability, it's not just that they steal passes, they're not gambling. It's that they're able to maintain gap discipline while also forcing those turnovers. They're disrupting Your handle, Nikola Jokic has never been as flummox and as frustrated as I saw him in that series where there was just possessions where he would turn and they're just taking the ball away from him. And the home court advantage, I think, is a huge part of that as well. Because in that building, it's so loud, those fans are so good, you can't hear the call outs of, hey, guys coming behind you like Wolf. Like, you can't hear those call outs behind you, and all of a sudden you turn and the ball is just being ripped away from you and going the other direction. They have so many good defenders. Like, Shay is second in the league in steals. He is a perfectly good defender, and he's like the seventh best defender on this squad. You got Holmgren, you got Hartenstein defending down low. That allows the guards to play more physical to the perimeter and really attack the handle and force them the other direction. You've got. You know, you mentioned Caruso. The secret guy is Jalen Williams. J Dub, when I did the MVP work on Shea and I was watching all of Shay's defensive possessions when he was on the court, the guy that stood out was J Dub. He's everywhere, man. Like, just jumping up and stealing passes out of the air from the guy right there. Weak side blocks underneath, challenging. And being physical with guys like this is. He is such a game changer for them defensively, as good as Lou Dort is. And they all agree he's the best defender, as good as Caruso is. And everyone agrees Caruso is the second best. Caruso, by the way, says Case, and Wallace is third. JDub's versatility is what like separates them. He is like, he is that linebacker that can play in coverage. He can blitz, he can drop. He can play, man. Like, he is unbelievable in how many things that he can do and that you add all that up together and when they are in sync, it is a nightmare for teams to deal with.
- [12:33]
Shad Millman
So when you look at these teams, what's interesting is you could argue this is the Paul George finals because both of these teams were built off of trades when Paul George was the marquee player for each team. Before we get into the game one breakdown. I know Simon wants to, like, dig in on, you know, who's going to cover in game one, but just give a little context because there is a great sort of sub story here around how these teams were built with relations to Paul George.
- [13:09]
DSW
Yeah. One of the things I think is great is that this wasn't, you know, I Have a lot of respect for pg. Did a big feature on him a couple of years ago for MVP for action. He was kind enough to sit down with me. But they didn't move on from PG as in, like, they pulled the rug out from under him. This wasn't like bringing Blake Griffin in and talk about him as a legend and then shipping him out six months later. Paul George was like, hey, I want to go home home. Like, I want to go back to la. That's where I want to be. And I'm teaming up with Kawhi and Sam Presti was like, we can make that happen, no problem. And came to the Clippers with the terms of the deal and they found it appropriate. Got Shagios Alexander. And there's a great story from Presti where he talks about how, like, he was still trying to deal with the aftermath of moving Russ and, like, how dramatic it was that off season. Like, it was really hard for him. Like, Russ was a big part of that organization internally. Like, they love that guy. They still love that guy. And yet he goes in. And while he's doing all these calls and trying to manage all that, Shay is already at the facility, already working out. Like, he's already come in and he's already getting a workout in. And he was like, he just remembered that as a really big moment and for Shea to have been the center piece of that deal and for how that worked out, an absolutely incredible story. And it's a testament to how OKC did handle that transition. You know, they made the playoffs in 2020. This team didn't tank for half a decade. They tanked for two years, missed the playoffs in the third, and then we're back in. Because they took the time to really invest in player development and make sure that they weren't just tanking to get star talent. They were building what they had. They got lucky with some of the. Some of the selections, but they were very deliberate with how they built that team up. And for Indiana, you know, Damona Sabonis was considered a great player. Like, he had taken in the playoffs. He was a really big part of their team, and they risked it in sending Sabonis for Tyrese Halliburton because they recognized what Halliburton could do. And then the trade I love is Siakamo and wins Eastern Conference Finals mvp. The Kings were so hot to drop for Siakam. Like, every source I talked to was like, oh, yeah, he's going to wind up at King. They're not going to let him go there's no team that's going to come in over the top. And the Pacers snuck in when there was a breakdown in talks with the Kings and grabbed Siakam. And that foundationally transformed their team. And last season when they made that run to the Eastern Conference finals, they'd only played with Siakam for two months. Halle had been out the entire first month that he was there. So they had really no time to get together. And there was these videos in the off season of Siakam, brought in guys to his, his gym to do off season workouts and was in the young guys faces being like, you think we've done something, we haven't done anything. I've been there and didn't go back. You cannot go in with that mentality. Like it got me ready to run through a wall for him. And you see the intensity of this team plays with it. It's rough for PG to look like this, but I gotta say, like, the moves have worked out absolutely terrific with both teams and how they built these, these squads.
- [15:59]
Shad Millman
Yeah, like pg. The, the picks they got, the Pacers got when they traded Paul George. You see that all over the court right today for that, for both. Both of these teams were literally built by trading Paul George. Simon, I appreciate your patience, but I just wanted to make it clear. This is the Paul George finals.
- [16:22]
DSW
Yeah.
- [16:22]
Simon Hunter
And the OKC thing has been crazy though, just how dumb they've been. But if you watch the playoffs like most fans have, Denver was the real test, right. They, they weren't a shoeing to beat that team like Denver easily could have won that series. And the reason, you know, people I listen to that say they lost is because the rotation, right. OKC was deeper. They had the guys. Is there a single thing, you look at this Pacers team, they can attack this okay thing, OKC team that gives them an advantage. Like what are you trying to grasp at with this Pacers team? Because everyone I talk to that knows basketball is just like you kind of need a miracle like the one you had with the Knicks against the Boston team. Like is that the same kind of scenario here?
- [16:59]
DSW
Yeah, it's not, not, not great, Simon. It's not a great look for them in their situation. The model for me, like there's other ways that they could do this if they steal game two. But for me it comes down to game one. If you like Pacers, I think you should be on Pacers game one, Pacers series, right. You're going to get a big number on that. They got to Steal game one because they got to follow the script of Denver. This is where I have a hard time trying to get the value on the number because I think the market is ahead of where I've got like it. It is definitively ahead of where I've got this. This power rated. That was a big reason I was all in on Indiana in the last round is I was. I'm higher on Indiana on power rating and was lower on New York. And the market is just like way ahead here on okc. Like, I make this minus 514. It's minus 700 in the market. Oh, so you want Indiana. Didn't say that. That's not something that makes me feel good. If they can steal game one, you have to factor in. In any Thunder series, you're gonna get blown out twice in okc. It's just like, you gotta bake that in. Like, I literally had to run a deviation on model just to be like, I need you to give me two blowouts in okc. And just like, what does that look like from a number perspective? Whether it's game two, game seven, game five, game seven, game five, Game two, whatever. You're gonna lose two by 20 or more in OKC.
- [18:08]
Almond Joy
They.
- [18:09]
DSW
They just do that to you. But if they could steal game one, all right, now you're in the same Denver script. They come back and they wax you in game two. No problem. You come home up to up split one one. That game three spot at the field house. No finals since. Since 2000. Building is going to be raucous. OKC does underperform, especially against the spread on the road. They have not been great this postseason. That's been the big thing is home versus away Steel Game three. You're up to one. Everyone's doing the same thing from the Denver series, which is like, oh, my God, is this going to happen? Are they prepared? They're going to come back and kill you in game four. They're going to kill you in game five. That gives you game six at home to four seven. And you've got more guys than Denver. So you're not going to be this wreck of a MASH unit with Aaron Gordon on one hamstring and MPJ with one shoulder. You've been the hottest shooting team in the playoffs. Pacers have the best effective field goal percentage of any team in the postseason. That makes you live. I am literally saying you got to get to a game seven just to have a chance here. Any other outcome, and I think it's. It's Thunder Definitively they got to steal game one.
- [19:12]
Shad Millman
All right, so go ahead. Sam. Are you going to say something?
- [19:14]
Simon Hunter
Well, I was going to hit him with the trend, the Evan trend. I mean, we have to talk about it. So obviously NBA Finals, game one underdogs, horrible, horrible bet, Chad, which was just shocking to me because it always feels like that's the game like we're talking about here. You need to steal. Right. If you're the underdog over the last 20 years, game one, underdogs two and 18 straight up three and 17 against the spread. And you know when you really break it down about bigger dogs, Chad, it gets even worse. So if it's five points or more, they're 012 straight up 111 against the spread since 20 2004. So the last time it happened, the Pistons were at eight point dog and they went outright. So they were saying that when their dog's this big and game one, you can just take the money line if you're really that ambitious. Kind of hear what Matt's talking about. It's like don't even mess with the spread. Like you're. It's. They don't have a chance apparently in this game one. So just reading those trends makes me a little scared where it's, it's already stacked against them. That's the reason the books, they have this exact same data. Don't be shocked that this opened at plus seven and a half, plus eight and got bet up to plus nine. Because the pros, everyone obviously took a position very quickly because of this exact trend. So that's all I just want to throw in there, Chad.
- [20:28]
DSW
Yeah.
- [20:28]
Shad Millman
And Matt, what's your take on that?
- [20:29]
DSW
Yeah, here. So here's another one. Here's another one of the problems. So if we look at the history, only two teams beyond a three seed have ever won the NBA title. They're trying to become the third team. It's 95 rockets, 1969 Celtics. That's it. So you're. They're going up against history here. Teams when you've got a more than three seed differential in game one are they're three and zero. These one seeds, the one seeds have like OKC checks every box. They won 40 games before losing 20. 95% of all winners over the last 20 years have done that. All of these markers are in favor of OKC for the series win. So this really would have to be an outlier year. Now this is an outlier year in general because look at all the, all the big heavy teams that have Gone down. And we've seen a lot of trends busted in these playoffs. Teams coming off of game Sevens were such a rock solid play to fade and they did great in the second round. That killed us on buckets. So there's been trend differentials this year. It's a different era. At the same time, like, if you look at those performances of teams in game one, you look at teams in game one also that are elite defenses. If they allow fewer than 110 points in that first game of the Finals, they're 29 and 10 in those spots. It's. It's tough for define the kind of reasoning here, which is a big reason why on series plays, even though I get. I don't like the market, I. I feel like I'm just gonna have to bet OKC on, on series spread lines based off of the basketball handicap, the script differential and all these things. There's basketball stuff I can find that makes me like indie, like I can find, especially on the defensive side for Indy. There's a lot of things I actually can find that I like there. It's just like, does that get them within range? Yeah. Does that get them to win? Probably not.
- [22:15]
Shad Millman
What do you like defensively or on the court in your breakdown about the Pacers?
- [22:24]
DSW
So in the regular season matchups, right, they got waxed by OKC, lost by 20 both times. No surprise. OKC has won 68 games this season by double digits, which is insane. But what they did was they had Andrew Nemhar, guard Shay Gillis, Alexander on pick and roll and they didn't deviate from that. Aaron Neesmith, you remember how good he was on Jalen Brunson through the first half of the series. Six total possessions, guarding Shay, Gilbert, Alexander. Now that wasn't them hiding it for the finals. Niecemith was out for one and they just. You play your base coverage in the regular season. But putting Neesmith on Shay, that's a move I really like because what you want to be able to do is you want to put him in a crowd like the Wolves did in game three, and then make him make tough shots in a really tight crowd or shoot pull up threes. The Pacers weak side defense is actually a little bit sharper than Minnesota's with the personnel that they were playing. And Minnesota is a lot or Indiana is a lot more comfortable playing small than Minnesota is. Minnesota got so far away from game script. Chris Finch, I think is an excellent coach. He got worked in that series. I think he got in his own head a little bit Indiana is a lot more comfortable with throwing out different coverages, particularly Zone. If you remember, zone was one of the things that the Nuggets threw in that really screwed with OKC's offense throughout the middle part of that series. You're going to see a lot of that in this series as well. And if this, if this becomes not about turnovers and not about athleticism, but it becomes about shooting, that's where OKC starts to waver a little bit. Their road splits are horrific for their role players. Lou Dort, Caruso, Case and Wallace, all these guys, even Jalen Williams, struggle a lot hitting open threes on the road. And Indy is, like I said, they're shooting the lights out. They've been shooting the lights out since the start of the playoffs. So this turns into if they don't turn the ball over. And Tyrese Halliburton is one of the lowest turnover point guards. Indy is the second best team at preventing turnovers from the regular season, and they've been great in the postseason. You don't give OKC easy chances off turnovers. The offensive rebound battle actually leans towards Indiana in this matchup versus okc. If they cannot turn the ball over and make this into a shooting contest. I like that stuff for, for Indiana, but it's like, okay, what does that get you? The problem is I can make a basketball cap to shorten the margin. I can't get the margin to 0 or plus 1 for Indiana in these matchups because the gap between them and team strength is too wide.
- [24:53]
Colin Cowherd
Hi, it's Colin from the Colin Coward podcast. That would make sense that I would be the host of the Colin Coward podcast. I mean, that's the way I see it. I've been around long enough to know quality when I see it, or in this case, when I taste it. Tito's handmade vodka. Good stuff. No flash, no gimmicks. Smooth, clean tasting. Made the right way. I like things that are built to last. A great team, a well run organization. Same goes for my vodka, Tito's. Made in Austin, Texas. Real care, attention to detail, distinct crisp taste. I was just telling my wife the other day, Tito's is the one vodka. It has a completely distinct taste. Been my go to for years, so I like to keep it simple. Tito's soda, one lime, lot of ice, refreshing, easy Summer, winter, spring. Totally versatile. Always works. Listen, baseball season's here. Your team's going to play 162 games. A perfect time to kick back with some Tito's. It's what I pour you should too. Distilled and bottled by 5th Generation Inc. Austin, Texas 40% alcohol by volume. Savor responsibly.
- [25:56]
Almond Joy
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Colin Cowherd
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- [28:28]
Shad Millman
There was a great story in the Wall Street Journal last week about how long the ball is in Tyrese Halliburton's hands on a possession and that on average it was in his hands for about three and a half seconds per possession. By comparison, Jalen Brunson was the highest percentage or highest amount of seconds at like close to seven seconds per possession. I just thought that was an amazing stack because it speaks to the pace of the Pacers offense and how quickly they are looking to get the ball up court. Like you can see it like every single possession. Eyes down the court, eyes down the court, length of the court passes is over the top of the defense coming out of baskets. I mean why was that so effective for the Knicks against the Knicks and why will it be so ineffective against the Thunder? What will they do differently?
- [29:31]
DSW
It was a problem for every team that they faced and this is actually something that I've talked to coaches about in the league. So there's a difference between tempo and pace. And the idea of the Pacers is like, well, they're just running, running, running, running, trying to get fast break points. They'll do those outlet passes for the quick dunks like you saw with Siakam. They'll take that when it's there. But they actually have the second most shots this season. Playoffs and regular season combined with four to seven seconds left on the clock. That's considered late by NBA terms. And so you try and figure out like, well wait, what does that mean? Is if you watch, they play with tempo more than they play with pace. This is an old spurs thing that Tony Parker used to do. You make a basket crowd celebrating, boom, he's up the court and he's initiating first action at 20 seconds, 18 seconds, first screen, first pass is already executing. So they're moving while the other team is still doing three point celebrations. And they'll, they will continue to get into those and attack them. And when Indy has their worst games, they get away from that. Game 5 versus the Knicks. You could see it like they were just slowed down. They were executing offense at 12 seconds, 14 seconds. When they are playing up tempo, it gets them a little bit further off. Now what the Knicks did in game 5 too is they picked up Hal Burton across half Court, they picked him up at 50ft from the basket. So they started picking him up way past half court to put pressure on him. In game six, he solved that with some screens in the backcourt. Played a little bit faster in terms of getting ahead of it and breaking that press and then also having somebody else. One of the great things about Halliburton is he'll defer. One of the things I love about him is he'll. If you switch, if you put your big on him, if they reel they're playing one big and it's chat Holmgren, he'll take Chet and he'll. He'll get the switch and then he'll pass off and he'll hang because Holmgren has to respect his three point shot, which means there's no longer a shot blocker underneath. Now the question is going to be can nem hard can neesmith can McConnell can see Occam attack the basket against that pressure and break it? That's a big question. But those are going to be the kind of challenges that you're going to see in this series. And if Halliburton is able to navigate this and is able to break that defense, a big question for me is going to be if the Thunder come into the series and they're like, we. You're not going to be able to pass, man, we're going to, we're going to. We are staying home on everybody. We're switching everything. We're going to give you these switches, but we're also going to shut down all your. Your other options. We're not shading off. We're okay with all our guys can defend. You're gonna have to score. Can how he do that? Because that's not in his mindset. He's got that Steve Nash about him where he always wants to make the right play. If he has like a monster scoring performance several times that breaks that defense forces more help. And now, okay season rotation and they hate it. But he's gonna have to beat play, I think with a little bit more deliberation and he's going to have to play with a little bit more of a. I have to score here to bend this defense because if you just take what the defense gives you, OKC gives you things that seem like, oh, this is a good. It was not a good shot, it was blocked, it was a turnover. Etc, you have to force them out of their comfort zone if you're going to break that defense.
- [32:37]
Simon Hunter
And you did mention earlier series how you're betting it. People don't know the series price. Obviously we're talking your Thunder Huge favorite minus 700. Pacers plus 500. Can you talk a little bit how you're attacking the series price and obviously you're not going to be betting -700. Are you just going to be betting it by the games or which way are you breaking down that number?
- [32:56]
DSW
Yeah, I like the series spread. I'm taking thunder minus two and a half games. There's a minus 110 out there. That's a really good number to me based off of when I get to. Okay, if we, if we price in those two blowouts, I'm expecting for OKC at home, the odds are that we're going to be able to get that in two and five or at least have a high enough margin here. It's. I don't. There's no real value on Thunder. Game one Thunder series, right. That's minus 300. That's a tough price I think to get into with the Thunder being on the stage for the first time. Both these teams are inexperienced at this point. I do think there's a coaching edge for Rick Carlisle, but to me, like Thunder minus two and a half, they either sweep or finish it in five. It could be. I think we could have some really great games in it. You know, we could have an awesome game one, an awesome game three, maybe a good game four and still wind up with Thunder in winning in five or four here. I, I've loved this Pacers team. They've been one of the most fun teams to watch. But this, this Thunder team is just in another weight class and if I'm gonna bet it appropriately, I think the value has to be found when you're taking heavy outcomes that lean in OKC's favor.
- [34:02]
Shad Millman
What is the. What about thunder and five? If you're gonna bet minus two and a half, why not thunder in five as well?
- [34:08]
DSW
Because I think that there's an opportunity there for if the problem is OKC has the same kind of comeback ability that the Pacers do. Right. We've seen them come back heavy, but if you remember, the Thunder were down 30 to Memphis, came back and won that game. Now the Pacers are a lot better than Memphis for sure, but I do think that there's a possibility that this is actually the Pacers come out with a great first half in game three. Thunder a second half team. They've been that all year where it's like you look up and all of a sudden your double digit lead is gone in the third Quarter, they push it, but they push in the middle of the fourth, and then they finish you out. So I want that opportunity for Thunder and four. I don't want to close off my opportunity in case the Thunder do take game three as well.
- [34:47]
Shad Millman
You know what? Go ahead, Simon.
- [34:50]
Simon Hunter
No, I mean, I'm just going to once again add to it the upsets. Like, we're just talking about really big numbers here. You know, last. Last big series price, you get like this with an upset not that long ago, which shocked me because it was like, oh, I wasn't even thinking about that Heat Celtics series. So 2023 heater of the Celtics, 2009 magic over the Cavs and 2004 piston over that Lakers team. So what we're talking about here, obviously, is incredibly rare. That's why this number once again has been bet up by the professionals. Because guys, if they're putting down five to six figures, they don't mind eating. Minus 700, minus 650, minus 800. Some books have already moved to. So I just want people to be aware of those prices. And like, if you. We all believe, right? There's like part of us all wants to believe in this Pacers team because it is basketball, right? It's all about balls having to go in the hoop. Some teams, that doesn't happen for them. And we saw with that Boston series, it was a totally different series because Boston just couldn't hit their threes. And that's the way the NBA has been now. So, you know, as someone that's like, very tempted to bet the Pacers, Evan has just been killing me with all these trends. So I just want people to be aware of the trends. They don't really favor betting these type of dogs, and I think Matt agrees with that.
- [36:04]
DSW
Yeah. And I got two more trends here, though, to kind of go along with that. The other thing that's correlated with these dog favorite spots is the under the under in home favorite game ones 14 and 8, last 22. If we go to teams that have allowed fewer than 110 points per game, I wish we had a defensive rating, but we don't. But teams that are in that kind of spot in game one of the finals, 25 and 14 to the under in these spots, there's been like a lot of opportunities here, I think for the under opportunities to be in play for this game one, this total ticked up after the open. We talked about it on Buckets Live that there was immediate action kind of pushing the over. I'm going to be back in I think on the under here, the problem is always OKC causing turnovers and those running up easy transition points. But again, this is a low turnover team. So even if they turn it over more than they can and survive winning the game or covering, there's still an opportunity here for them to not give OKC's offense enough life for the under. I'm going to be looking, I think, if, by the way, on the other side of this, let's script it. If you like thunder, it's thunder. It's. It's thunder, spread and under. If you like Pacers, it's Pacers, moneyline and over. That's got to be the way that you play this from that perspective. Indiana can win some of these games with unders, but it's going to be real tough against this particular team. Matt.
- [37:29]
Shad Millman
You Simon mentioned Boston. We haven't brought up the Lakers. If you had to predict who's going to win a title first in the next five years, Lakers or Mavericks?
- [37:51]
DSW
I mean, it's 100, the Lakers. We talked about this late in the season on buckets. We talked about what the price would have to be for you to bet the Lakers to win the 2026 title. And we were. I was, you know, I was giving out numbers and I and Brandon Anderson and Sean Little were killing me. There's like, no way, man. No, I was like, all right, what's the number that you want? And they're like, it's got to be 20 to 1. Yeah, it's 20 to 1 in the market. They're going to have an entire off season to rebuild around Luka. There's already. I've talked to people around the league. Nick Claxton's a name to look out for. There's a lot of thought that they're going to make a move for Nick Claxton as a brim runner big. They're going to add wings, they're going to add other opportunities. They still have assets to trade. Austin Reeves is probably going to get moved and that's a big trade piece for them. The Lakers are in a great spot. Mavericks without Kyrie Irving. I don't know what this looks like after them. Love Cooper flag, but this is a terrible situation that he's going in. But if you gave me the option of those two or the San Antonio Spurs, Chad, I would take the San Antonio Spurs.
- [38:52]
Shad Millman
Really.
- [38:53]
DSW
Victor, man, Victor Wembanyama. Even coming off the blood clot, man, his game is so far behind his impact where he's not even that good at so many, like simple, basic things. He still gets knocked out of the way on drives. He still gets out of position. He's still, you know, confused. He doesn't have go to moves. His footwork isn't perfect. And then you look at the overall numbers and it's like they are monsters with him on the court. He's just going to get better. They added the Aaron Fox. They've got the number two pick and there's a lot of conversations about what they're going to do as far as whether they keep that pick and take Dylan Harper or trade it for a major upgrade. Everyone's waiting to hear about Giannis, but it might be for something else as well. They've got cap space, flexibility, they've got draft picks. That spurs team is set up. We are probably going to get another Lakers spurs rivalry like we did in the early 2000s. I think we're going to see that again here with Luca vs Victor, web and Yama over and over again in the West.
- [39:54]
Simon Hunter
Let me sneak in. Chad mentioned the draft. I need to sneak in. Pick three. It's the only pick on the board with any value. My Sixers. Is it Ace Bailey? Who the hell are they taking? Is there a long shot outside guy you put money on or am I just betting plus 100, you know, minus 110 on this Ace Bailey kid at pick three?
- [40:12]
DSW
So I think that you. It's probably. If you were. If you had a better, I would wait because I don't think we have enough intel right now. If you had to, I would bet Bailey, but if I actually had to, I would bet. If I could. If it was in the market, I would bet Bailey, not Sixers at three. There's a couple of teams that are absolutely in on Bailey and are looking to move up and the Sixers are interested in those conversations. So there's an opportunity there. If the Sixers keep the pick, I think Vijay Edgecombe probably goes there.
- [40:37]
Simon Hunter
Now I have to go there. Talking about the ledger, are we really about to trade maxing that third pick for Giannis? Is that real? Is that just. Is that just off season talk as off season talk?
- [40:47]
DSW
Everyone's waiting. There was a meeting. So there was two meetings. There was a meeting with Giannis a couple weeks ago and no word came out of that. That was with the front office. There was an ownership meeting with the front office last week and there's been like weird noise coming out of that one. But so far everybody in Milwaukee is making noise about Giannis is staying. We're going to do a gap year. It's going to be okay. That can change at any second. If he asks out, it's bidding season. But I also think that they're less likely. I do not think that the. I will say this, I do not think the Sixers are trading Tyrese Maxey. I do not find any situation where they trade Tyrese Maxey. They are more likely to trade every other asset. I would say that they might even more be more likely to trade Joel than they are to trade Tyrese. So I would not worry about trading Tyrese in the third. I would not be surprised if they did a deal for Giannis. That's a very Daryl Morey thing to do. But they'll have a lot of competition and we're a long way from there because we got to figure out what Giannis wants first. And as of right now, there's still no news and nobody knows.
- [41:45]
Shad Millman
The Ace Bailey spot is so interesting because people are so divided on Ace Bailey. Are you getting a guy who's at his ceiling? Are you getting a guy who can live up to the potential? Like, if I'm the Sixers, getting that three spot was a little bit of a curse because with the first two spots with Flag and Harper, you kind of know what you're getting. You're getting NBA ready guys. You know they can come and make an impact and you know they've got superstar potential. Ace Bailey could just as easily be James Wiseman as he is the next great NBA All Star. Matt, you agree? Is that, Is that a real conversation?
- [42:30]
DSW
Yeah. The problem is just like he's, he won. He's. There's two different thoughts of people I've talked to. One is, I don't like his approach. He's a gunner. He's going to shoot too much. He needs years to refine this. He is not ready to play smart, competitive, high level basketball because of his mindset. And like, I don't want to commit a lot of money to that kind of guy. That's just like scoring doesn't make teammates better. The other thought is like, look, he could be a really great player. He just needs seasoning. He just needs. He's a prospect, but it's going to take several years. Like, he's just really raw. And so that combo, I think has got enough people skittered. But what I think is interesting is again, I've heard that there's a couple of teams that are in spots 5 through 10 that are very much interested in Bailey and are like, no, that's the kind of talent that we need. But if the team's up at the top, the other one, I thought Dylan Harper was like, lock, and he probably is going to. I'm not saying he's not. I will say there's a lot of weirdness going on around. Like, no one really knows what San Antonio is going to do. And there's a lot of scouts that are like, I'm not putting Harper 100 at two. I'm just not. So that opens up.
- [43:36]
Simon Hunter
He's minus 3,000 just for the people at home to be number two.
- [43:39]
DSW
Yeah. Like, I, I again, most likely that's what's gonna happen. He is the consensus number two pick in this draft. I love Harper's game. I would take him, too. But I do think that there's a lot of questions about fit culture, a lot of stuff with Harper and the Spur. The spurs are a tough fit for a lot of guys, which is why they go outside the box a lot of the time. And they've got a log jam there with Fox and Castle, who they do really like. He came out of a bad draft class, one rookie of the year in a bad year, but they do like him. They are invested in him. So I'm very curious. There could be some chaos here at the top, and that would be. That would make for a lot of wild outcomes, I think, in the draft markets.
- [44:18]
Shad Millman
How does Edgecomb fit with the Sixers? Their backcourt, like, from a starting perspective, is kind of loaded and they've got similar players, like, undersized, athletic players.
- [44:30]
DSW
Yeah. So the idea is just one, he's like, if he's the best talent, that's what you take. You always take a best talent with top three. If you like his talent better than Bailey, then you just, you take the best talent. The other kind of mindset here is, look, if they move off Paul George, then they're going to need wing help. And the idea is add as many wing guys, especially guys that can come in and do multiple things, and they like the versatility that Edgecomb is going to bring to the table. So that combo of things is kind of, I think, why the Edgecom is up there. Trey Johnson's the other name, but there's a lot of skepticism that, that any team can really justify going for. For Trey Johnson. What I will say, though, is as, as always, the mock drafts are not as important. The big boards are not as important. Pick by pick, they're. They're good in the aggregate. But if the Sixers board is different, the Sixers board is different. And so much of this comes down to it's why I I am always most keen to hear about how do the interviews of the combine go because not the, not the, not the measurements, not the on court stuff. How the interviews go because building personal relationships, building trust and feeling like this is a kid that we can invest with the future and and this much emphasis on is really important. So that part to me is just as important as all, as all the other stuff as as far as the basketball skill set goes.
- [45:46]
Shad Millman
Well, Matt Moore, we trust you and we trust everything you've said about the NBA Finals, about the draft, about who might win a title first between the Lakers, spurs and Mavericks. Excellent work brother. Everyone should listen to buckets. It's been an amazing playoff run. We got more weeks ahead of us. Hopefully we'll get like I, I'd like six at least just because I like both these teams and I'm gonna miss the NBA when it's gone. But Matt Moore, great work. Great. Thanks for coming on. Thanks for having me. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites Thursday Action Network YouTube page. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate Review, Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time.
- [46:35]
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DSW
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Shad Millman
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DSW
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iHeart Podcast
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