Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Episode: The Favorites - NBA Finals Betting Update

Release Date: June 11, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman, Simon Hunter
Guest: Matt Moore
Platform: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Introduction

In this episode of "The Favorites," Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve into the current state of the NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) and the Indiana Pacers. Joined by Matt Moore, host of the "Buckets" segment, the trio offers comprehensive analysis on recent games, betting strategies, player performances, and predictions for the series' outcome.

Series Overview and Recent Games

Game One Recap (02:07 - 07:12):

• Chad Millman shares his initial confidence in OKC's dominance, betting on them to blow out the Pacers. However, the Pacers' unexpected performance in Game One disrupted his expectations.

  "I was in Costa Rica last week, spent 40 hours... I could not get the game one of the NBA finals and like I could see in the app like it was a blowout, blowout, blowout." (02:07)

• Matt Moore praises the Pacers' defensive strategy, highlighting how they limited OKC's scoring despite creating turnovers.

  "If you create turnovers but you don't score on them, that mitigates a lot of the advantage that OKC is able to create..." (05:31)

Game Two Dominance (03:32 - 09:25):

• Simon Hunter discusses the Pacers' resilience, emphasizing their shooting prowess and ability to stay competitive until the final minutes.

  "What's great about the NBA right now... these teams, if they get hot and hit these threes, they're all such good shooters." (03:57)

• Matt Moore analyzes OKC's performance, noting their challenges on the road and the Pacers' strategic plays.

  "Indy's got a really good spot here and especially with this being Thunder minus five and a half market." (09:25)

Betting Strategies and Market Analysis

Current Betting Odds (07:56 - 14:52):

• Chad Millman and Simon Hunter examine the current betting lines, with OKC at +290 to win the series and Pacers at +1600, indicating a significant discrepancy in expectations.

  "The prices are the Thunder +290 to win the series... Pacers numbers are obviously higher, we're talking much bigger numbers." (07:56)

• Matt Moore outlines his betting approach, focusing on live betting and strategic placements based on game outcomes.

  "I'm going to play Pacers moneyline game one. If it loses, I'll be back on them in game two." (09:25)

Strategic Betting Insights (12:38 - 34:54):

• Matt Moore discusses potential outcomes and places bets on various game scenarios, including favoring OKC in Game Six and the Pacers in Game Seven.

  "I think Thunder are going to win game five by by margin. I'll be on alts all over the place for Thunder game 5 regardless of series script." (14:52)

• Simon Hunter contemplates the underestimation of the Pacers' potential, debating whether the hosts are overlooking their clutch capabilities.

  "Should we be taking the Pacers? Is this, are we overlooking it here?" (18:30)

Player Performances and Key Contributors

Aaron Nesmith and Pascal Siakam (31:18 - 33:42):

• Matt Moore highlights Aaron Nesmith's defensive excellence and his crucial role in the Pacers' victories.

  "He's number 1A on my list for why they got past him. His play in that series was absolutely tremendous." (31:18)

• Discussion on Pascal Siakam's undervalued performance in the betting market, suggesting he is a strong candidate for Finals MVP.

  "Pascal Siakam is the one that's actually like the really badly priced in the market because when Siakam has 20 or more points, the Pacers are 7 and 1 straight up in ATS in the playoffs." (30:27)

Coaching Strategies and Adjustments

Mark Degnan vs. Carlisle (27:58 - 33:59):

• Chad Millman praises Oklahoma City's coach, Mark Degnan, and Indiana's Carlisle for their tactical acumen and ability to adapt during the series.

  "Mark Deglan is a really good coach. Carlisle, he's such a wily veteran. He's obviously won a title." (27:58)

• Matt Moore discusses Carlisle's strategic restraint in making adjustments early in the series, preserving his tactical options for later games.

  "Great coaches know you never want to be the first one to adjust... you have to save them." (25:52)

Predictions and Future Outlook

Potential Series Outcomes (34:46 - 35:28):

• Chad Millman and Simon Hunter concur on betting OKC to win Game Six and Pacers to clinch the series in Game Seven, balancing their strategies based on team performances and market odds.

  "We're going to six and the seven. I like Pacers and seven. I like Thunder and six." (34:46)

• Matt Moore expresses caution about Game Seven, anticipating high drama and the Pacers' potential to steal the final game on the road.

  "If this gets to seven, that is. They're gonna keep saying it like, well, we've been, we've faced adversity... we've got a ton of confidence heading to this..." (33:42)

Notable Quotes

• Simon Hunter:

  "This isn't Golden State or those LeBron teams. This is a very young team, first time doing it. They have this unique ability to believe..." (18:07)

• Matt Moore:

  "This team is the perfect squad to steal a game seven on the road." (33:42)

• Chad Millman:

  "The Thunder are clearly the better team. They've got more talent, more aggressive, longer players on defense." (27:58)

Conclusion

The hosts provide a nuanced examination of the NBA Finals, recognizing Oklahoma City's superior talent and coaching while acknowledging the Indiana Pacers' unexpected resilience and strategic play. With betting odds favoring OKC, the discussion highlights potential value in backing the Pacers for future games. As the series progresses, Chad Millman, Simon Hunter, and Matt Moore offer informed predictions, emphasizing the dynamic nature of the finals and the importance of clutch performances in determining the ultimate champion.

Listen to the full episode on iHeartPodcasts or The Volume for more in-depth analysis and expert opinions on the NBA Finals.