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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
Simon Hunter
Are you still quoting 30 year old movies? Have you said cool beans in the past 90 days? Do you think Discover isn't widely accepted? If this sounds like you, you're stuck in the past. Discover is accepted at 99% of places that take credit cards nationwide and every time you make a purchase with your card, you automatically earn cash back. Welcome to the now it's It Pays to Discover. Learn more@discover.com credit card based on the February 2024 Nielsen report okay, have you heard about this?
- [00:35]
Chad Millman
Last year, Degree changed the formula for.
- [00:36]
Simon Hunter
Their Cool Rush deodorant.
- [00:38]
Chad Millman
The fans rebelled and wanted the old.
- [00:39]
Simon Hunter
Scent back and Degree listened and that doesn't happen often.
- [00:42]
Chad Millman
They admitted they effed up and are bringing the original Cool Rush scent back. And it's exactly how you remember it. Cool, crisp and fresh. There's a reason why it's the number.
- [00:51]
Simon Hunter
One men's antiperspirant and and it's back in Walmart, Target and other stores now for under $4.
- [00:56]
Chad Millman
So try it and see what the fuss is about. Head to your local Walmart Target and.
- [00:59]
Simon Hunter
Try the OG Cool Rush for yourself.
- [01:02]
Chad Millman
As a hockey player, I love sports. But sometimes when I take a puck to the teeth, I wonder is sport.
- [01:11]
Simon Hunter
Clips better than sports? Because sport clips haircuts is sports on tv. Plus an expert haircut, hot steam towel and massaging shampoo which is better than sports. Plus orthodontists sport clips. It's a game changer. Check in online@sport clips.com why is a soap opera western like Yellowstone so wildly successful? The American west with Dan Flores is the latest show from the Meat Eater Podcast Network. So join me starting Tuesday, May 6th where we'll delve into stories of the west and come to understand how it helps inform the ways in which we experience the region. Today. Listen to the American west with Dan Flores on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [02:11]
Matt Moore
Welcome to the Favorites the podcast. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today I'm joined by, as always, by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. I'm giving you a very special, very exaggerated, very English hello Simon.
- [02:36]
Chad Millman
Hello Chad. Perfect day here in Burnley. Lovely, lovely sunny day here in the United Kingdom. It's beautiful.
- [02:41]
Matt Moore
Well, listen, I know you've been in training, trying to throw down as many pints as you can, getting ready. You've been in England for less than 12 hours are you drunk? Have you entered into any coal mines? Have you joined Peaky Blinders? Are you carrying razor blades in your cap? What's happening in Burnley right now?
- [03:11]
Chad Millman
God bless my cousins, they bought me Coors Light because they said that they think I only could drink light beer. So I had a Coors Light and I've said a couple of. In it, in it, in it. So other than that, that's as British as I've got so far. So early days. I've only. Chad knows I landed this morning. I'm on two hours of sleep. And yeah, tonight I'm sure It's. It's like 6:30 here. So I'm sure after this call, I'm gonna have a couple drinks with my cousin. I'm looking forward to it.
- [03:37]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [03:37]
Matt Moore
What's going to happen? Are you going to go to a pub? Like what happens in England?
- [03:40]
Chad Millman
Yeah, like literally. I mean, that's why I love England. I'm a block away. So walk down to the local pub, have some fish and chips, have a couple of drinks and watch some football matches. It'll be a good night.
- [03:51]
Matt Moore
I feel like you on two hours of sleep. Flying overnight is no different than me staying up to watch the end of the NBA Finals, which is about two and a half hours past my bedtime. We're going to talk a little bit about that today with our brilliant analyst, host of the Buckets podcast, the man who made us last week bet the OKC Thunder in six as well as the Pacers in seven. You know him as the man who says the word subsequently subsequent Mr. Matt Moore.
- [04:37]
Simon Hunter
I did it again this week. I did again on a show and was just killing myself for it. I'm like, what is wrong with me? I'm going to go to like a hypnotist therapist to get me to say subsequent correctly.
- [04:51]
Matt Moore
I don't even think they say it like that in England. Like it's not even a word.
- [04:54]
Simon Hunter
Nope. It's just me. It's just me. I'm the problem. It's me.
- [05:01]
Matt Moore
You're not the problem for us, Matt Moore. Because after our conversation last week, me and Simon both bet on the Thunder to win in six and it's looking decent. I mean, Tyrese Halliburton. We can talk a little bit about the game. There's a lot to say, not just about the game, but since the last time we spoke. There's a lot of activity in a variety of markets for the NBA, whether it's what's going to happen with Kevin Durant and I think that has subsequent value in the betting markets for where we think he might land. There are conversations for top five markets for the NBA draft. Desmond Bain was traded from Memphis to Orlando. That got a, to me, kind of an outsized reaction from people, but also how having an impact on what people think now of the Eastern Conference in the NBA. So there's a lot to break down when it comes to NBA. Right now we're entering into that super dramatic high school drama off season of the NBA, which I love. But right now, as we talk about it, the thunder of a 32 lead. Shay Gilders Alexander is averaging about 33 a game. Jaylen Williams had 40 last night for the Thunder. They're up 3 2. Tyrese Halliburton has injured his calf. He played with a tight calf. He here's what's interesting to me. I don't know what's going to happen in the next few games, but I do know that it seems very strange to me how frequently, frequently it takes Tyrese Halliburton to get into the offensive flow in these big games. When he's great, he's great. But why is it so hard for him to find buckets in these big games? Too often it's like the second quarter and you're seeing Tyrus Halliburton hasn't scored yet.
- [06:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So I think there's a couple of things that happen depending on what the matchup is. You know, last night I think the injury really was pretty severe and it was enough to really hamper him. Now he's going to get so much treatment, like, the amount of treatment you would not believe. I don't think people really understand. It's like, oh, he'll receive treatment and they think it's like, oh, he'll go in and they'll work on him. No, it's like they go to his house, they work on him. He goes to sleep, they wake up, come to his house, they work on him. He goes to the arena, they work. It's constant over the next, you know, 72 hours before they get to game six. So that was part of it. The other thing is that the Thunder have high pickup points, so they're pressuring him up the court consistently. And they've gotten to where there's like, all right, we have to pressure him all the way up the court. Then there's the matter of the pick and roll coverage. Like, okay, what's the easiest way to get Tyrese loose? Let's set a screen for him and separate starting in game Four. The Thunder were like, fine, fine, we'll switch. They never want to do that. They want to play drop because it helps them protect the paint. They started switching and like we called it on. On buckets, pre game, which you can catch every. Every pre game before the finals and however many we have left at 6:30 Eastern, we talked about how, look, Tyrese Halberton Unders are a great spot here because they're going to switch everything. And Tyrese is not good at challenging that. And that means the other Thunder guys don't have to help off. So his assist lanes are not there. It's just one on one. Go get a bucket. And that's not Tyrese's game. He wants to shape it. He wants to force gravity and then separate things and create open lanes for guys or work off ball. And he's willing to defer if he feels like that's the right play. Jokic had the same problem a couple of years ago. Not a couple of years ago, like five, six years ago, where I would actually like Joker and I have like this ongoing tension because I'm always. I would ask him, I'm like, as the. Like, do you feel like you're the best player on this team? And he'd always be like, no, not at all. And I'm like, Joker, like, come on. And Tyrese has the same thing where he just wants to kind of be part of a team that makes everybody better. He doesn't want to be the guy that scores 35. He wants to win the game by shaping it. But the Thunder are saying, no, you're going to have to beat Chat Holren one on one and get a bucket. And you're going to have to do it enough that we help off. And that challenge is what really works against Tyrese. It's what makes him disengage.
- [09:06]
Chad Millman
And.
- [09:06]
Simon Hunter
And they've beaten the Knicks and they've beaten the Cavs because Nemhard N. Smith, Miles Turner, Pascal have been able to attack those matchups off ball with the space that's provided. OKC is a different beast. And that's why I think you're seeing some of this with Tyrese on top of the injury.
- [09:24]
Matt Moore
Simon, did you want to jump in? Because I have another question.
- [09:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I mean, I'm just like, yo, I'm. I've loved this series. There's just so much that's going on that's. I mean, anyone that's just been knocking the series just really has missed out on what is why we love basketball and to Me, that game forward, that pivotal moment of SGA and just OKC stepping up, right? They're down 10 points head into that fourth quarter. And I don't know about you, but I thought this is over, right? Like, this is. They're down to a team in, you know, the Pacers that can close these games out. Can they, can they live up to the moment to come back? And the fact that, you know, we've all seen it. SGA at the end of that game, stepped up, hit some big shots, had his moment, and now here we are in the next game, right? And you know, Halliburton goes down. He does not look like the same player. We're all sitting here, right, that it's. It's over for okc. I would love to know your view, Matt, on this opening number, because it opened. Six professionals came in, obviously quickly took that number. They've taken the five and a half. I've. I know some pros have taken the five and now you're seeing some four and a halfs. And is this because of what you just talked about? Is Halliburton going to be game ready? Is that why this number is moving? Or is this just professionals taking a stand on a number where, you know, this is a Thunder team that struggles on the road? Is that simply as simple as that?
- [10:41]
Simon Hunter
So this is one of those. And we don't see this as often in the NBA, really takes until I think the finals, until we see this. From what I'm seeing, it very much looks like groups are fighting over the number, and we don't see that very often in NBA because there's not enough interest or money on. On it. And then the limits are lower. So this opens, like you mentioned, this open six, it immediately pops down to five. There's some four and a half showing, but now we're going back up to five, five and a half in the market because now today we're seeing sharp action coming back in on okc. And whether that's intel saying, hey, Halliburton's probably not going to be ready, or the immediate move was just based off of. All right, look, you pop this at 6. Indy's been competitive. OKC is 0 and 8 at or, I'm sorry, now 8 and 1 or 1 and 8 on the road, ATS in the playoffs, this is enough to get me to go ahead and take Indy as a reaction here with this price point. Now we're seeing some of this coming back on OKC. All the trends are going to suggest OKC is the spot here, it does look like OKC's gotten to be themselves. They look. Game five was the first game in this series where I was like, oh, there's the thunder. Like, I haven't seen them since the Wolf series. And if that. I'm resistant to these momentum shifts. And because if you'd asked me, if you told me, like, hey, they're gonna. They're gonna split in. In okc1 and 2, I've been like, oh, indie wins 3, okc wins 4. Okc wins 5, indy wins 6. Like, that's the game script, the trends. And the spot with Tyrese Halliburton probably suggests that OKC is better than what that that suggestion would lead you towards. The number's been really interesting, though, where this is. I mean, this is also fighting over literally two possessions here, right? Like, this is right on the verge. If it gets to four, that's, like, where the margin inside of, like, five seconds, the team will let it go. Like, all right, we can't get this. We can't. We're not going to be able to close this gap. But at 6 now, that's a different kind of margin here. So you're fighting over these very, very careful price points, I think, here, and you're seeing a little bit more sharp action fighting over this number than we've seen in most of the other finals, I think.
- [12:40]
Matt Moore
Are we getting a clue from this number in the movement how much Tyrese Haliburton is worth to the point spread?
- [12:48]
Simon Hunter
Probably not, because it's like, he's gonna play. Like, Rick Carlisle said he's going to play. And the question is, now we're in this spot of trying to put a number on an ephemeral thing, because we always talk about, like, he's 90, 80. Like, there's no way to quantify that. You can't quantify the human body. So it's is If Tyrese is 50 or 40%, that's. This number has to move two and a half, three. If this is Tyrese's 70, 80%, you're talking about a half point, maybe a point. And I think that there's probably some of the buyback today based off of, look, if Tyrese isn't 100, how are they going to win this game? Like, that's got to be. Some of. This conversation is just, how are they going to win this game if Tyrese is literally a decoy in the corner? Now, the funny part is, a really good reaction would be, it's Indiana. Do not bring your logic in here because they have defied that consistently all playoffs. But that's more of a gut feeling than a quantitative edge perspective. So I think, I think some of this is probably reflective of the idea of OKCs got momentum, the trend support game six road favorites trying to close out the series. OKC is better based off of the power rating. Still, they've reestablished control of the series and Tyrese Halliburton is not going to be 100% no matter what. Whatever he was before because nobody's 100% right now. If he was 90, now he's 70. Whatever. Wherever you land on that has to I think impact your cap on this. That's why it's going to be tough for Pacers backers. I think in the spot.
- [14:11]
Matt Moore
What's, what's a little bit deceiving is Matt, maybe while I'm asking this question you can look up what was the number in game four in Indy Thunder we're down 10. Shea hits, then they're down I think five or they're down four. Shea hits the three pointer. They're down 103, 102 I think. Then he hits that two pointer in the corner when he bumps knee Smith off. Now they're up one from that point on the, the Pacers only score one more point. I think the game closes seven. What was the spread in that game game? Game four closed minus six, ended at seven. Thank you. Matt Mitchell throwing that in there. So the Thunder ended up covering that game. What a deceptive cover and what a bad beat. I think that's what you're talking about when you're saying look at this number at the end. The number might be bigger than the game appears, than the final score appears.
- [15:21]
Simon Hunter
And it took, it took off ball fouls too. That was the killer, right? Was like they kept picking up off ball fouls to get one and the ball and that to me is like out absolutely crazy. Like Mitchell has commented here that they covered for a total of 6.7 seconds. Now I was on, I was on Thunder to cover in that game and that was one of the all time like thank you Jesus moments in that game. But yeah, like OKC's ability to, to win by their, what is their overall margin on the road has been extremely difficult throughout the playoffs. We saw this, it not just the Nugget series. We saw this in Memphis. They go down 30, they have to storm back, but they don't cover. We see this in Minnesota. They don't cover. They've consistently struggled to cover on the road here. The problem, I think, is also a series flow, though. If the Thunder are up in that fourth quarter and Indy gets that sense of we can't do it, like, we're out, we've run out of gas, and we're done. There's a lot of spots where I've seen teams in that kind of situation facing elimination down in the fourth quarter. And like, you just don't. And the other team, meanwhile, is like, just keep punching. Just keep punching them. We can finish this. We can win the title. That momentum shift, like, that's the highest point of adversity, is you are down in the fourth quarter, facing elimination after playing for six months of basketball. You've gotten all the way here. That's a really tough spot. And so I, I think that both those things are true. Like, it doesn't feel like to me, this is a. I thought, I thought game five was a good Pacers cover Thunder win spot. And the Thunder got over the line because they were able to force turnovers for the first time, which is out of context for the series. This one does not feel like that. This one does not. I feel like if you're. Look, if you like Pacers, you need to be on money line. If they're going to be within range of this game, they're going to have the extra edge. We can do this. We're right there. We can win this game. Thunder winning close to me is the least likely of the outcomes.
- [17:14]
Chad Millman
I was in the sports book for that game, that Game four, just being on the professionals who bet on the NBA. I love talking about it because the NBA Finals, the books get so sharp. I remember at some point they were down, like you said, they were down one or two points. And SGA gets them back into the game. He basically gets them up by one. And my buddy turned to me, said, they're going to somehow cover this game while only hitting two or two made threes at a time. And then I think he hit one more. So they're up to three made threes. He's like, this is why I love betting, though, because every sucker in this room is on the Pacers, because everyone knows that stat, that OKC is not covered on the road. And he's like, I know this is going to land on seven. And sure enough, you know the exact. What was it at? 111 and 104.
- [17:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [17:55]
Chad Millman
I turned to him, I was like, I love. This is why I love betting so much, because it's like you knew any better. Knew that was coming, right? Those stupid free throws, the Pacers missing free throws. So my, my view of this, Matt, is like you're saying the back and forth on this number right now is the professionals are fighting because the books are getting so sharp, right? I mean last game, what did they, what was the COVID That was nine and a half. I think the final point was 11, right? Was it 109? Right. So like the books, even with, you know, Halliburton being injured is still right there. Like the books are so sharp right now. So anyone listening to this, just be careful. Like you're betting to a right now a market that is at the highest level. Like the books just seem like they're capping it so well. So I like what I'm viewing here with Matt Morse talking about. I like the adjusted line, right? Is this not a nice spot to take okc minus 12 and a half a little Brandon Anderson or take the Pacers money line, right? I love that type of scenario here. Or do you think this is going to be a closer game than I'm giving a credit format?
- [18:52]
Simon Hunter
I don't mind this as an alt spot. The trick is though, one of the things, because like I started live betting Thunder alts last night, first quarter, because I was like, man, Pacers are dead here. They're just looking like they're out of it. OKC's got this. If OKC wins at home, their average margin of victory in the playoffs is 26 points. This is good value here. With this kind of number. Indiana's got a rare ability to just never get kicked off the ladder. Like, okay, Tyrese Halliburton's hurt. Pascal Siakam seeing three defenders. Miles Turner can't do anything. Here comes TJ McConnell gonna make things happen. Here's Benedict Matheran hitting big shots to keep him within range. And OKC's half court, this is the big thing, if you really want to know the reason, it's that OKC's half court offense never gears up, their defense gears up, their half court offense stays at the same level or lower. That's all they really do. They never hit this, this gear where you're like, man, what an incredible offensive performance. They got amazing game from J Dub, they got a good game from Shea. They generated a lot of free throws for Shea, but like, this wasn't a. They're absolutely killing them because they don't really have that gear offensively. It's all on the defensive end. It's why I like Thunder team total over and didn't want Pacers anything on on their on their team total or the combined over? I only wanted Thunder team total because I was like they're going to go over this number because of the speed of the game, but their offense never really gears up. It just you hit a couple more threes or not, they're not going to have this dominant performance where they blow you out because they shot 48% from three. That's not going to happen. If they're going to blow you out, it's because you score 80 and that's hard to do against an Indiana team whose offensive floor is so high.
- [20:39]
Matt Moore
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- [22:06]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the youe versus you podcast. I'm Lex Borrero and every week we sit down with some of the biggest names in entertainment to talk about the real stuff, the struggles, the doubts, and the breakthroughs that made them who they are. We go deep, exploring childhood trauma, family, overcoming loss, and the moments that shape their journey. These honest conversations are meant to take the cape off our heroes with the hope that their humanity inspires you to become a better you and therefore set you free to live the life of your dreams. Here's a sneak peek.
- [22:36]
Simon Hunter
I'm trained to go compete.
- [22:38]
Matt Moore
I'm trained to be like harder. But sometimes that mentality stops you from stopping and smelling the flowers in your own garden.
- [22:44]
Chad Millman
Is it wrong to want more?
- [22:46]
Matt Moore
We migrated. Our family migrated here. I'm like second generation.
- [22:55]
Simon Hunter
Listen to youo vs yous as part.
- [22:57]
Chad Millman
Of Michael Tuda Podcast Network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever.
- [23:03]
Simon Hunter
You get your podcasts. The American west with Dan Flores is the latest show from the Meat Eater Podcast Network. Hosted by me, writer and historian Dan Flores and brought to you by Velvet Brady Buck, this podcast looks at a West available nowhere else. Each episode I'll be diving into some of the lesser known histories of the West. I'll then be joined in conversation by guests such as Western historian Dr. Randall Williams and best selling author and Meat Eater founder Stephen Rinella.
- [23:37]
Chad Millman
I'll correct my kids now and then where they'll say when cave people were here. And I'll say it seems like the.
- [23:42]
Simon Hunter
Ice Age people that were here didn't.
- [23:44]
Chad Millman
Have a real affinity for caves.
- [23:46]
Simon Hunter
So join me starting Tuesday, May 6, where we'll delve into stories of the west and come to understand how it helps inform the ways in which we experience the region today. Listen to the American west with Dan Flores on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [24:06]
Matt Moore
When you look at this Thunder team, I was watching this game last night and everyone talks about Dynasty. They threw up that graphic about the Blazers and this is the second youngest team since the Blazers that has a chance to win a title. And Shay is 26 and Jalen Williams is 23 and obviously Shea's gonna get a bag. He's gonna get 70 million a year. And Jalen Williams, when he's eligible, is gonna get whatever max deal he's eligible for. You're gonna have a construct similar to what the Celtics have right where you're, you're paying north of probably could be by then $400 million to Shay Gilous Alexander and to Jaylen Williams. It's hard to maintain a dynasty when you're spending that much money on two players handicap. For me, this what this team looks like over the next two, three years. Who are the pieces they can keep? Who are the players that are going to have to go somewhere else to get a bag of cash?
- [25:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's a great question. So I think there's a lot of interesting elements in this. One of the things that we're seeing. Zach Love was talking about this this morning on his show and it's something I've been talking about for a while. One of the reasons that Memphis made the Desmond Bain trade It is very difficult right now to build with three players making max money. And the numbers I've kind of put on it relative to where the cap is now, it's going to go up with a new media deal. But you can't have three guys making 50 million. Can have two, never three. You need two guys making 50 million, one guy making above 30 million, and then a bunch of guys making between 20 and 5. And that's how you fill in that roster. That's the new model the owners built into the cba. Well, guess what? Chad Holmer and JDUB are both extension eligible this summer, and they're going to get the bag because you can see how valuable they are. If Victor Weyama had not gotten hurt and Chet Holmgren had not gotten hurt, I still think Chet might have won defensive player of the year. That's how good he is. Defensively, he's insane. J Dub, I mean, last night was, for all of us on J Dub island was like, take a look at this. So they're gonna extend those guys. They got one more year because those extensions don't kick in until 26, 27. The year after next year. They got one more year. And guess who comes off the books then? Isaiah Hartenstein. So you clear off the money. Then Chet moves into the center role. Hopefully he eats some spaghetti and gets a little bit thicker so he can handle getting bumped on the interior and play small ball. 5. You're going to have guys, they'll fill in the rest of that roster. But here's the big question I have, Chad. I look at the J Dub situation and I think a lot of James Harden 2012, and the misconception has always been that that move was made because ownership was cheap, and that move was made because James Harden knew that he could be an MVP candidate with a exclusive deal with Adidas, being the front of their entire shoe line and be that kind of a star in that kind of a market in Houston. He knew that kind of earning potential. J Dub is going to have be faced with that same decision, and J may have a different set of priorities and maybe like, nope, I want to be here. This is what I want. But even then, I'm of the belief you're going to have to choose between Chet and J Dub eventually. You can do it for maybe a couple of years. If Ben, it's like, yes, we've won two championships. I will pay for the luxury, the second apron tax for a year or two. But eventually you're going to hit that snag where it's like things didn't go right. The chemistry wasn't right, the fit wasn't right, Guys missed shots, someone got injured. And now it's the second round. And now the pressure is how do you get back to that top level? And the only way to do that is to trade one of those big three, because the second apron rules in the NBA, CBA do not allow it. The other big one, Case and Wallace, is extension eligible next summer. And to me, Case and Wallace is a guy that I would absolutely want to be investing in. Like, he's a sneaky guy that can wind up being an elite level defender. He's got more bounce off creation. He's a good shooter. Like Case and Wallace. Next year, maybe one of the biggest names that we're talking about on the free agency market and talking about possible sign and trade situations for okc, Kendrick Williams next summer, I think is going to be a big choice. OKC's got next year to contend. They might be the first team to go back to back since 2018. But they talk around the league and, and all these shows of like, how many titles is OKC going to win? I'm setting the over at two and a half. I'm like, let's settle down because this, this era is absolutely designed to prevent that. And it's even harder in markets like okc.
- [28:34]
Matt Moore
All right, so that, that's exactly what I wanted to hear. And how, what, what will be the salary Jalen Williams can get? What is the salary Chat Holmgren can get? What is the salary Shea can get? He can get like 4 for 280, right? So is that what it is?
- [28:52]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think it's 4 for 280. Depending on whether or not he qualifies. I think he's going to qualify on your first. On your first team. All NBA for the supermax. I'll check on that. So that one's a tough one. The, the reality, the better way to think about it instead of getting caught into the specific numbers and is just to think about if you're making this money, you're making over 50, you're making over 50 mil. And if you're making over 50 mil, if you're north of those numbers, even at 40, it gets really tough to keep those course together. And then you got to think about the next time they're extension eligible down the line and what that's going to look like as well.
- [29:24]
Matt Moore
All right, so Simon, before we came on, we were talking about Kevin Durant. How do we play this market? Matt how do we think about where Durant is going to go and how can we preemptively get into the Kevin Durant sweepstakes? By predicting the best landing spot with the best value.
- [29:46]
Simon Hunter
So there's a couple of these that I think are interesting as ways to kind of look at it. I think the best way to do it is to. To think about what you're going to do immediately in the aftermath. An ideal situation. I understand, because, Chad, we were talking before a show about, like, the outsized reaction to Desmond Bain. Right. I think you mentioned on the show like the outsized reaction, that trade. But like the dream scenario for a lot of us is that Durant gets traded to Miami and Miami immediately gets steamed, and then Orlando will fall in division odds. And that's going to be, I think, a great opportunity to get in on Orlando. The biggest thing I would do want to tell listeners, don't bet into the market in the first 24 hours after a trade. Do not do it, like, unless you are ahead of the move. Like, if you are in the 13 seconds that you've got before news breaks and that market moves unless you're there, do not buy into it. It's never worth it. These moves are always, these trades are always exaggerated in the market. And you're always going to be able to get a better price no matter what it is. Like, it's very rare that you don't get a better price.
- [30:49]
Chad Millman
And all through the same man, Mitchell, I mean, Morris is be careful, people, when you're betting into those markets, that's how you get banned. Like, people don't realize it. Like books. They're looking for people like you that are ahead of the market or you're getting intel quicker than them. So I feel like he's giving you good advice here of just being careful, betting these type of numbers, because either you're going to get got because you're getting bad information or you're making a bad decision trying to buy in early and try to get a good number.
- [31:14]
Simon Hunter
So as far as Katie's landing spot, right now, the favorites in the market are tied between Miami and Houston. I would say Houston is more likely because that's a solution where everyone wins. Katie wants to go to Houston, Houston gets an offensive upgrade, and Houston can afford to send stuff back to Phoenix that Phoenix isn't going to be thrilled with. It's not the haul they want, but if the options are Andrew Wiggins and a bad first, or Jalen Green, potentially Jabari Smith and a pretty good first, especially if it's one of your own that they own all of, that's a pretty good situation. Phoenix will. Houston will try and squeeze him for it. The best way to kind of think of it for Houston, there is a disagreement there. I think email wants Kevin Durant. He wants to win now because coaches want to win now. And he knows, like, give me Kevin Durant and my defense, and we'll go win games. Raphael Stone gm, I think is like, we got to be. We can get a top. Like, if we keep squeezing them, we could get Devin Booker, who's younger. Lot more upside. We can have him forever, or we can go get another guy with all these assets. Our, our investment in Phoenix's draft picks are only going to improve. Look how desperate they are. And that battle, I think, is really interesting. Like, does Phoenix want it? Does Houston want to help out Phoenix in this deal? But they are a team that can help them out without saving them. And then so to me, between those two is valuable. The long shot for me is the Clippers. At 50 to 1. They have consistently been. They got popped up over the weekend. First it was like, oh, yeah, it's. It's Houston, it's Houston, San Antonio, Miami, New York, Minnesota. And then all of a sudden, the Clippers started popping up over the weekend. They've had a lot of talks. Like, I've heard about Clippers talks for weeks now. I don't think they're as substantive as talks between Minnesota, Houston, San Antonio, even Miami. I don't think they're as substantive, but I do think that those conversations have been held. And, And I think that the Clippers, especially if you're Matt Isbia and you're like, I, I don't want to be bad. I don't care about draft picks. I want to win games. I told them that we would win. Let's win. We got Devin Booker. Let's win. The Clippers can at least give you, like, Norman Powell, guys that will help you win. Now they're going to want Zubot, and I don't think the Clippers are going to give him up. But if they were to ever change on that, then, boy, would that be a really great situation. It'd be a terrible trade for the Clippers. But I also think Ballmer, you know, coming off of that playoff loss, wants to get more people into that great new arena. I think that KD makes a lot of sense for them, putting him back with Harden. So Clippers 51 to me, is the best long shot in the market.
- [33:49]
Chad Millman
And I feel like what you touched on. Like, we all know the east is wide open, you know, the professionals. And it feels like a public or final. It's Orlando, right? Is that the team that everyone's just piling in on now to win the East? Because they're just a team that people think they can make a Pacers run here. Is that kind of fool's gold here that we're buying?
- [34:05]
Simon Hunter
I think. I think that nobody really knows yet. Like, I wouldn't buy into the east market at all right now because you don't know if the Knicks are going to move somebody to make another thing because they got a lot of chemistry questions. Like, they got things they got to figure out. I think Indiana, you gotta wait to see what Miles Turner does. Like, Miles Turner is up there. If some team just comes in is like, yeah, we don't care. We'll pay 40 million. That's a huge price for Miles Turner. It's also 10 more than what Indiana wants to pay him. I think they settle at 35. But if somebody offers him 40, then you could probably get Miles Turner in free agency. The Cavs are probably good value just because they're going to return the same kind of guys, but they might make a move. I think Jared Allen might be gone, and you don't know what they're going to get back for him. Orlando is maybe good value at plus 800, but I'm still kind of like, are you really going to want a big position on Orlando if they're in the conference finals versus a veteran team that's been there and knows what they're doing, doing? Like, I like Orlando a lot, but I'm not sure that I feel like they're going to be the Thunder. I don't think they're going to be that kind of a team. Pistons, actually, to me, is probably the best value at 20 to 1 because they're only going to get better. And they got some. They are shopping in free agency, like they are going for it. So I think Detroit's really interesting at 20 to 1.
- [35:20]
Matt Moore
That's.
- [35:20]
Chad Millman
It's gonna be interesting though, Chad, to see what free agent wants to go to Detroit though, right? Like, in this NBA, this, like, we're talking about Miami, San Antonio, like, it's. It's gonna be funny with Kevin Durant just somehow ended up in Detroit.
- [35:33]
Matt Moore
Well, look, he doesn't want to go to Minnesota, we know, and a lot of guys, but. But it becomes like one of those things. How much do you want to ring? How much do you want to play with Kate Cunningham. How much do you like J.B. bickerstaff? That roster showed so well against the Knicks. That was a much closer series than I think anyone anticipated. And so if I want to win, I'm a mid. I'm sort of a mid career free agent. You get a really young team that's got a great culture. Why wouldn't you go take a shot 4 years, try to win your title? Matt Moore I like it. Tasty, tasty stuff. Thank you for giving us the Thunder and Six. I hope you continue to give us more and more prescient nuggets in subsequent episodes of the Favorites, as well as buckets. Don't forget Pacers Thunder Game six from Indy. Number open six now down to five. Moving back to five and a half. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your podcasts. Rate Review Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Favorite feedback as a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [36:56]
Simon Hunter
Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly.
- [36:59]
Matt Moore
If you or someone you care about.
- [37:01]
Simon Hunter
Has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER. Why is a soap opera Western like Yellowstone so wildly successful? The American west with Dan Flores is the latest show from the Meat Eater Podcast Network. So join me starting Tuesday, May 6, where we'll delve into stories of the west and come to understand how it helps inform the ways in which we experience the region today. Listen to the American west with Dan Flores on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. What up y' all? This your main man? Memphis Bleak right here. Host the Rock Solid Podcast.
- [37:41]
Chad Millman
June is Black Music Month, so what better way?
- [37:44]
Simon Hunter
Celebrating and listening to my exclusive conversation with my bro Ja Rule.
- [37:48]
Chad Millman
The one thing they can't stop you or take away from you is knowledge.
- [37:52]
Simon Hunter
So whatever I went through while I.
- [37:53]
Chad Millman
Was down in prison for two years through that process, learn. Learn from it.
- [37:58]
Simon Hunter
Check out this exclusive episode with Ja Rule on Rock Solid. Open your free iHeartRadio app search Rock.
- [38:05]
Chad Millman
Solid and listen now. Hi, I'm Sarah Spain, host of Good.
- [38:09]
Simon Hunter
Game with Sarah Spain and the co author of the new book Runs in the Family, an incredible true story of.
- [38:15]
Chad Millman
Football, fatherhood and belonging.
- [38:17]
Simon Hunter
Written with and about Las Vegas Raiders.
- [38:19]
Chad Millman
Running backs coach D. McCullough.
- [38:21]
Simon Hunter
It's the story of a football coach and father of four who sees his life forever changed by the unsealing of.
- [38:26]
Chad Millman
His adoption records and it's got a.
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Simon Hunter
Twist you won't believe. Based on the viral ESPN story I did a few years ago, this book will blow your mind and bring you to tears. By Runs in the Family. Wherever books are sold.
- [38:37]
Chad Millman
This is an I Heart podcast.