Loading summary
Transcript133 lines
- [00:00]
iHeart Host
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
Jake Hofer
I'm Jake Hofer and this is Back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access?
- [00:23]
Chad Millman
Should you? That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.
- [00:28]
Jake Hofer
Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
- [00:35]
Ken Jennings
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land Jeopardy truthers believe in?
- [00:52]
Simon Hunter
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [00:55]
Ken Jennings
That's right.
- [00:55]
Chad Millman
They give you the answers and you still blew it.
- [00:58]
Ken Jennings
The Puzzler. Listen on iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:06]
John Lithgow
Hello, I'm John Lythgoe.
- [01:08]
Chad Millman
We choose to go to the moon.
- [01:09]
John Lithgow
I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast, One Small Step for Man about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.
- [01:18]
Simon Hunter
You're a great pilot, Buzz.
- [01:20]
John Lithgow
That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't. Buzz, starring me, John lithgow on the iHeartRadio app, podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:37]
iHeart Host
Get fired up, y'.
- [01:38]
Chad Millman
All.
- [01:38]
iHeart Host
Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people, an incomparable soccer icon, Megan Rapinoe, to the show and we had a blast. Take a listen. Sue and I were like riding the lime bikes the other day and we're like, whee. People ride bikes because it's fun. We got more incredible guests like Megan in store, plus news of the day and more. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports Network.
- [02:22]
Simon Hunter
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network, our annual division by division NFL preview episodes continue. We're coming down to the end as we head into week one. To help me bring it all together, let me introduce my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [02:49]
Chad Millman
Chad, my guy. How we doing, dude?
- [02:52]
Simon Hunter
Today we're doing the NFC East. So I want to tell you a little story which, which you Will love because it involves one of your favorite coaches of all time. I got some buddies here in West Hartford, where I live, who are from the Philly region, outside Philly, South Jersey, whatever. And they are such rabid, rabid Eagles fans. They get together during the season. They watch in this guy's basement. They've already rewatched the super bowl victory from last year in preparation for the upcoming season. And a couple weeks ago, they called me because they were going to watch the movie Invincible. As you know, I wrote the book Invincible. Chad Millman wrote a book. You're aware. I wrote the book Invincible about Vince Papale, who became the oldest rookie in NFL history when he made the Eagles off of an open tryout. When Dick Vermeil became the head coach, it was the movie Invincible starring Mark Wahlberg and Elizabeth Banks. I appreciate you recognizing it because when I said they asked me to go to this party, when I said I was going to come by, my son was like, invincible. Didn't. Didn't you have something to do with that? Did you? Like you're a fucking dick.
- [04:13]
Chad Millman
You got to explain them. That's Philadelphia's goodwill hunting. You had a huge, huge deal. Yeah, part of Philadelphia movie.
- [04:19]
Simon Hunter
So. So I went and I. The night before, I texted Vince and I told him I was going to this Invincible party and my buddy's house. And by the way, they had these like, I don't know, like the Philadelphia Wawa version of Hostess cupcakes and like little cakes and stuff that you got to rub the plastic to make sure it doesn't stick to the icing. I forget what they're called. But anyways, I told Vince I was going to this, you know, movie party for Invincible, and he texted me. He was in Jupiter, Florida. A video, Jupiter, Florida of Doug Peterson. This was literally that moment. He was with Doug Peterson, who was making Smash burgers and they were getting ready to watch the hall of Fame game. I'm like, this is the best.
- [05:17]
Chad Millman
Ah, man, it's a brotherhood. Philadelphia.
- [05:19]
Simon Hunter
Doug Peterson loving his life with Vince Papali in Florida.
- [05:24]
Chad Millman
The well deserved, well deserved, good man.
- [05:27]
Simon Hunter
Today we're doing the NFC's Brother Eagles. Super bowl champs Washington commanders, Dallas Cowboys, New York Football Giants. As Mike Shiffman had asked us to do, the NFC east faces the AFC west and the NFC North. So even the last place schedule because of the NFC north will not necessarily be easy. Let's start with your Eagles brother division minus 145 conference plus 300. Super bowl plus 6, 650 win total 11 and a half. I got a lot of thoughts on this right now, but you're in that Venn diagram of super fandom and professional better. And I know Eagles fandom does not influence how you feel about these numbers. I say that with all seriousness. So before I say anything, just give me your opinion.
- [06:44]
Chad Millman
Yeah, and it's. This is. This is peak, nfp, NFC east, cockiness, pride, I think in the whole division where, you know, Washington thinks they're big and bad, Dallas thinks they. They got super bowl, you know, aspirations. And I believe after our last super bowl, we have the most Super Bowls and above any division, nfc. So it's. The Northeast bias is strong right now with this division. And yeah, I look at it and you know, this Eagles team, I think even talking to Eagles fans, they were losing their fucking minds. The fact that I was telling people to bet Dallas and I tried to explain them. Well, to explain to people now, just because I was saying Dallas is the best value does not mean I think Dallas is going to win this division. Obviously, this is the team that's going to win this division.
- [07:29]
iHeart Host
Right?
- [07:29]
Chad Millman
The Philadelphia Eagles. And at minus 145, it's that number. Because there's so much love for Washington right now in the general public and sports media because of Jaden Daniels. Well deserved what he did last year, but that's really what's pushing this number down. And then we know the history of this division. Just teams don't repeat. It's. I don't know if we're going to year 19 or year 20, but there has not been a repeat champion in this division that long for good reasons. There's always something, right? There was always something either even when there's teams leading by like four games, there's five games left, they've lost somehow all those games. The other team will come up and win it out of nowhere. So it's been really fluky, but I think it's finally bound to happen. Chad. I think I can say with confidence that this Eagles team will be the one that can break that streak. And it's just because of this defense. And as much as we love and respect we give this Eagles offense. Deserved, well deserved. To win your division consistently, you need to have a really good defensive back. That offense because. And we've talked with other like other professional betters, defense to a lot of people is considered very inconsistent from year to year. And that is why these defensive coordinators are so important. I mean, Fangs, he's changed the whole NFL. His defensive scheme has changed everything in this league where the deep ball is, for the most part died for most. Most teams. Right. Because of this type of COVID 2 defense he's brought in where, you know, he runs cover two, cover three. I mean, that super bowl, they just won. I think if you watch most of it, they ran cover four against Mahomes most of that game, and it worked like, it's just, it's crazy how dropping these safeties back and keeping everything underneath, it makes these quarterbacks eventually make a mistake. Like, you only can be patient for so long, especially if you're trailing. So this Eagles team, their biggest weakness was they lost Milton Williams, Josh Sweat. Like, when I, when I hear people say that stuff, I laugh. I think Eagles fans laugh because no one was saying those names until that Super Bowl. No, no fan outside of Philly knew about those guys except, you know, until that super bowl happened. So, yeah, does it matter? They lost those guys? Of course. But to me, being not only an Eagles fan, but someone that follows that team through, betting their best D lineman was Brendan Graham through, you know, eight weeks last season. Like, this is a man that retired after the season. So that's let you know how that DN group, they were just all really solid. There was no superstar of that group. So losing those two guys, it's a big deal. But for this team, it's not that big of a deal. And the real, the game changer for them has been obviously Jalen Carter, but it's the linebackers and the cornerbacks like Howie. We had one of the worst secondaries in football. We lost seven straight games. And he went out, took, you know, arguably the best corner of football, in my opinion, in the first round, then took a guy that, you know, people now know his name, Cooper DeJean, because of that Super Bowl. So, you know, when Quinion Mitchell and Cooper De Jean can come in and change a whole organization in one year, there's going to be carryover. So that was their first year. They're only going to get better. So I would say most Eagles fans you talk to are sticking their chest out. They're very confident. They believe I, I want to hate on him, I want to push him down, but I just can't find a weakness on this team. And even saw, I think yesterday Landon Dickerson got hurt here at his knee, which is their, you know, all pro guard. That's a huge deal for almost any team to lose your all pro guard. He might, I don't know what the injury is yet. They just said it's a knee injury. He's got MRI in his knee. If he's out for the season, that, that is a big deal. But with Jeff Stalin another cog in the machine, you expect the next guy to step into that guard position won't be that big of a downgrade. So, yeah, it'. They're healthy. I mean, I, I remember I said at this point last year, I think I had, I think I had the 49ers at 1 last year at this point. Then Lions, then Eagles and then the Chiefs. And people were killing me and I get it. Like they were like, you're being a homer. No way. The Eagles last year a top three team and then we head into the playoffs. Last year the Eagles were my best bet. It was. We did an article for Action Network and it was my best bet. Super. But they were 11 to 1, the Eagles, a super team. People call them a super team. They were 11 to 1 in January heading to the playoffs. You could have got them a super team. And it's, it's just one of the things how people just move the goalpost. Right? They move the goalpost. So this is. Of course they won. They had the best defense, they had the best offense, blah, blah, blah. And it's like, why were they 11 to 1? So I think the whole public's come around now on this team that, yeah, divisional odds value is there. Win total. I would take it. I haven't had 13 wins. 11 and a half. That's a nice win. Total conference and Super Bowl, We've already talked about it. There's no value there. Rather do Eagles with the matchups because them to win this conference at three to one, they need so many things to break their way once again like it did last year. Right. Like they just need to be healthy and that is the hardest part of football. So yeah, you can tell I'm really excited and fired up for this team because we haven't had a repeat champion like we had two. The last time we've had a team win two Super Bowls and the next team win two Super Bowls was, I believe Pittsburgh and Miami in the 70s. So that's how long it's been the NFL, I think over 50 years now since we've had back to back champs where they've gone back to back, back to back. So as an Eagles fan, I'm really excited. But as a better, it's like this is the dream team. It was the same thing as last year. Chad knows I love betting teams based on offensive lines and defensive lines and their schemes and this is just another team that because how he's drafted so well. There's no glaring weakness. So I have no, no fear of the curse of never went the same team repeating this division. I think this is the exact team type of team you need to break that curse, which is a team that's not even talking about last year's Super Bowl. They've totally moved on, totally one direction. It all starts with Jalen Hurts. So yeah, very, very confident in this divisional bet. This is probably my top three of my highest bet right now. It opened at 150, actually dropped at some books to 140, 145. So people are betting Washington, they are betting Dallas and they're moving this number. So I'm hoping, I'm hoping it doesn't get above 150 again. I think this is, this is the right price for me in the value wise betting the Seagulls team.
- [13:29]
Simon Hunter
Howie did Howie during the draft. First five picks on defense, across the defensive line, linebackers and secondary. Three of the next four picks on the offensive line. I think he knew they needed more offensive line depth. They lost Makai Becton from that super bowl offensive line. Like you just mentioned Dickerson, we don't know what the injury is, but Howie doesn't leave the COVID bare in the areas where he needs it most filled. Where we love, which is defensive line, offensive line. I'm not even that worried about them losing Kellen Moore, the offensive coordinator because to me that's one of the reasons they sort of fell off a cliff the year after winning the super bowl is they did not get the coordinators right, both offensively or defensively. They were off. Right. You mentioned Vic Fangio came in and like the good thing about Fangio is a, he's a brilliant defensive coordinator who's proven it again and again and again, including last year. He's not going to leave to go be a head coach somewhere. Meanwhile, the Eagles, they didn't go out and look for a new offensive coordinator. They basically just promoted a guy who's been on staff. Some of the disconnect that Jalen had in adapting to new offensive coordinators the year after he won the Super Bowl, I don't think will be a problem this year. Even though it like hits his fifth offensive coordinator in five years.
- [15:00]
Chad Millman
Losing Kellan War, it's. It was a big deal, but it's not. When I really broke this team down where they struggled. He wasn't even that big of a game changer. The Eagles were second and least points scored in the first two quarters of games up until week 13. Like I remember we kept betting against them in the first quarter because they could not score for the life of them. I told you what eventually happened was Jalen hurts. After that bi week he went to them and just said we don't need to be a passing team. We should be our run first team. Like we have the ultimate cheat code in Saquon Barkley and this upcoming season I think things might change where they might push the ball a little bit more downfield if if possible. But I look at it as don't change it if it ain't broke. Don't fix it like you know what you are like. Keep feeding the beast to to Saquon. Ride him as long as you can as long as he's healthy. So yeah, I think you nailed it Chad. Where it's like usually I'd be with some teams or it's like, well you know, this isn't like losing Ben Johnson. You're losing to a guy who I think got propped up by the pieces around him. He wasn't so much this offensive genius.
- [15:56]
Simon Hunter
Quick heads up anybody playing fantasy football this season. The ultimate 2025 draft kit is here courtesy of our Fantasy Labs team. This means our award winning team of Sean Kerner and Chris Raybon have their rankings tiers and cheat sheets ready for you. To get them you'll need a Fantasy Labs subscription and right now new subscribers can get can use code FLEX20 for $20 off at FantasyLabs.com/Flex Let Sean and Chris make your fantasy prep easier. Use code FLEX20 for $20 off at FantasyLabs.com FLEX the Washington Commanders you mentioned Jaden Daniels division plus 225 conference plus 850 Super Bowl 20 to one win total nine and a half. It's very easy to say fade the Commanders but it's the right thing to do. I think Jaden Daniels masks everything that is wrong with this team. The O line not very good. Does Laramie Tunsil make them that much better? Is he on the other side of being peak? Terry McLaurin holding out? Does Deebo Samuel on the other side of Peak make this team much better? In both cases with Tunsil and Samuel, I think they're getting big time guys whose productivity is a year or two behind them. So again they're going to be over reliant on Daniel's playmaking ability. He's not Justin Fields, right? He's not an irresponsible scrambler. He's not Anthony Richardson. He doesn't make himself vulnerable. There's no reason to think that what he did last season, performance wise, was a fluke in terms of his ability to keep the chains moving and find success on fourth downs and. But there's going to be some regression. They literally converted nearly every first down. I would go under nine and a half year. This would be sort of the bet that I would peg in this division.
- [18:05]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And I have them at seven and a half wins, so they're way, way, way over. You know, nine and a half is. I couldn't believe when I saw that open. And I know, like, well, you're. You're being a Washington hater, but it's just. I think Chad's nailing a little bit of how fluky last year was in many ways. And they're being sucked into, you know, if Baker doesn't turn that ball over, they win that game. Right. That playoff game. What's. What's their win total if they don't have that run? Right. It's probably eight and a half because of how good they were last year. You know, so you're already getting a bad. Like, you're already betting on over. If you're betting this with a fake win like that, they're getting a bump from the books because of the general public's view of this. So I can't believe people are being sucked into this team where it's just so much about their season. Last year was fluky. Like they. I think they beat. Maybe it was two winning teams, but I know it was one team with a winning record in the regular season, and it was the Eagles with Kenny Pickett. Like, I'm trying to think of any other team they beat with a winning record. I can't think of one. So this is just a team that beat up on bad teams. And, you know, respect to them, like, good coaching, you know, we talked about, like, that was the greatest rookie season we've ever seen, and Daniels deserves that respect. So I get why the public is loving him, why the media loves him. And, you know, people are already putting him as a top five quarterback and like, everyone's just drinking the Kool Aid right now. And it's just natural for that because we've never seen anything like it. Like, we never saw rookies come in at offense like he did last year and take them to NFC championship game was incredible. So I get from their standpoint why they're so high in the sky. But, you know, like, we're talking about here, when you dive into it, you see how Fluky last year was. And then you look at this team here, what they've added to it, it feels like they just added a bunch of old guys. Like, yeah, adding Von Miller is great because he's a leader and there's some things he can do. But that's not a game changing piece. Debo, I like the move because you're going out and you're trying to make your team better. But haven't we seen what Debo's become? Right? He's just not the same type of player as he was before. And his aggressive style, it seems like it adds to him getting hurt more often than not. So there's just so many questions here. And then the number one thing that really is pissing me off is this whole McLaurin thing. I don't get it. I don't get how these organizations with these billionaire billion dollar owners like Josh Harris should just pay this man this money. Like what he. Terry went through the dark days of Washington. He's been there through all this shit and you never heard a word from him. And every year he would go out and put out another thousand yard season and finally you get a quarterback perfect for him and you want to be tight about it. I just, I hate it. I hate it so much for this Washington team because this is the window. Like you got Daniels on this cheap money pay. Pay McLaurin if you're worried about his age because I don't know if he's 31 or 30. Give him a three year deal there. Just make it all guaranteed. Like he deserves all that, all that money and then some. He's just, he doesn't get hurt. He always plays hard and I hate this distracted for them. So yeah, someone that likes their under. This is all good. This is all good things like this drama off field stuff. So yeah, to me commanders right now we have a plus 222 plus 225 to win this division. I got them a plus 400. Actually have Dallas at plus 300. So I am way off compared to what the books in the general public think of this division where I think Dallas is clearly the second best team this division. The general public and some professional betters really believe this Washington team. So I think it's a big miss and I think we're on the same page. We expect a lot of regression from Jay and Daniels, but it's really the schedule, like their schedule is just so much harder than it was last year. I just, I can't see a world where they get to 10 wins. It just seems like it's going to be impossible with how hard the schedule is, how much luck they need to break their way.
- [21:59]
Simon Hunter
I'm so glad to hear you say that, because when I was taking a stand on this being my favorite bet that they're under, I didn't know your rankings and ratings had them at seven and a half. Which two games you. Yeah, that's, like, one of the biggest Deltas we have here. So I'm feeling really good. Really? Really.
- [22:26]
Chad Millman
It's not knocking the talent of the team. I just think it's just the schedule so tough. Like, it's just not like it was last year. They had kind of.
- [22:34]
Simon Hunter
They got it. They got to play the teams in their division. The Cowboys will be better.
- [22:39]
Chad Millman
Yeah, they got to play Giants will be better.
- [22:41]
Simon Hunter
They got to play. They got to play the Cowboys twice. They got to play the Eagles twice. They got to play the Chiefs. They got to play the Vikings. They got to play the Packers. They got to play the Lions. Like it is, not Denver. Yeah.
- [22:54]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [22:55]
Simon Hunter
It's not an easy.
- [22:56]
Chad Millman
It's tough. So that's. That's my hesitation with them. People. Like, I get why people are drinking the Kool Aid then coming in, but it's just. It's. It's who Chad started the top of the show with. It's who these. Who this conference plays outside their division. And with the way their schedule breaks, it's just really tough for a young team like this.
- [23:13]
Manny
Imagine that you're on an airplane, and all of a sudden you hear this.
- [23:17]
Simon Hunter
Attention, passengers.
- [23:18]
Chad Millman
The pilot is having an emergency, and.
- [23:22]
Simon Hunter
We need someone, anyone, to land this plane.
- [23:25]
Manny
Think you could do it? It turns out that nearly 50% of men think that they could land the plane with the help of air traffic control.
- [23:33]
Jake Hofer
And they're saying, like, okay, pull this.
- [23:35]
Manny
Until this, Pull that. Turn this. It's just. I can do my eyes closed. I'm Manny.
- [23:39]
Chad Millman
I'm Noah. This is Devin.
- [23:41]
Manny
And on our new show, no Such Thing, we get to the bottom of questions like these. Join us as we talk to the leading expert on overconfidence.
- [23:50]
Chad Millman
Those who lack expertise lack the expertise. They need to recognize that they lack expertise.
- [23:57]
Manny
And then as we try the whole thing out for real. Wait, what? Oh, that's the Runway.
- [24:02]
iHeart Host
I'm looking at this thing.
- [24:03]
Chad Millman
See?
- [24:04]
Manny
Listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [24:12]
John Lithgow
Hello, I'm John Lithgow.
- [24:14]
Chad Millman
We choose to go to the moon.
- [24:15]
John Lithgow
I want to tell you about my New fiction podcast.
- [24:18]
Chad Millman
That's one small step for me.
- [24:21]
John Lithgow
It's about Buzz. Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.
- [24:25]
Simon Hunter
You're a great pilot, Buzz. As far as I'm concerned, the best I've seen.
- [24:29]
John Lithgow
That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't predisposition.
- [24:34]
iHeart Host
To depression, alcohol abuse and suicide.
- [24:37]
John Lithgow
We'll see Buzz try to overcome demons.
- [24:40]
Chad Millman
What do you say, Buzz?
- [24:41]
Jake Hofer
Another beer.
- [24:42]
John Lithgow
And triumph over addiction.
- [24:44]
iHeart Host
Here's to you, Buzz Aldrin.
- [24:47]
John Lithgow
Good luck to you and become a. A true hero.
- [24:49]
Chad Millman
Buzz and I will proceed into the.
- [24:51]
John Lithgow
Lunar module not because he conquers space, but because he conquers himself.
- [24:58]
Chad Millman
Buzz, we intercepted a Soviet radio transmission.
- [25:00]
John Lithgow
Starring me, John Lithgow.
- [25:02]
Chad Millman
Can you put it through?
- [25:04]
John Lithgow
Can you Translate on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [25:10]
Chad Millman
Columbia.
- [25:12]
iHeart Host
Get fired up, y'. All. Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people and an incomparable icon, Megan Rapinoe, to the show, and we had a blast. We talked about her recent 40th birthday celebrations, Co hosting a podcast with her fiance, sue, bird watching former teammates retire and more. Never a dull moment with Pino. Take a listen. What do you miss the most about being a pro athlete? The final. The final. And the locker room. I really, really like you. Just, you can't replicate. You can't get back. Showing up to locker room every morning just to talk. We've got more incredible guests like the legendary Candace Parker and college superstar AZ Fudd. I mean, seriously, y', all, the guest list is absolutely stacked for season two. And, you know, we're always going to keep you up to speed on all the news and happenings around the women's sports world as well. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart.
- [26:15]
Chad Millman
Women's sports.
- [26:17]
Simon Hunter
Hello, puzzlers.
- [26:18]
Ken Jennings
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land? Jeopardy. Truthers who say that you were given all the answers believe in.
- [26:39]
Simon Hunter
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [26:42]
Ken Jennings
That's right. Are there Jeopardy.
- [26:43]
Chad Millman
Truthers?
- [26:44]
Ken Jennings
Are there people who say that it. It was rigged?
- [26:46]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Ever since I was first on, people are like, they gave you the answers. Right. And then there's the other ones, which are like, they gave you the answers and you still blew it.
- [26:56]
Ken Jennings
Don't miss Jeopardy Legend Ken Jennings on our special game show Week of the Puzzler podcast. The Puzzler is the best place to get your daily word puzzle fix. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [27:18]
Simon Hunter
Dallas Cowboys 6 to 1 to win the division plus 600 conference 25 to 1 Super Bowl 50 to 1 win total a paltry seven and a half.
- [27:29]
Chad Millman
Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky in the heart of the Lone Star State is a galaxy of extraordinary football players. They are the Dallas Cowboys.
- [27:43]
Simon Hunter
So listen, you and I have talked about the Cowboys a lot this off season. We've liked their value in the division all off season long. I bet them on the money line to beat the Eagles in week one. I bet them at plus seven to beat the Eagles in week one. And before the Micah Parsons drama, this was all yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. And like, you have been very influential in reminding me how good Dak can be and that he is coming back this year so we shouldn't be down on this team. And I kept remembering that the defensive line last year was playing second and third stringers for a large part of the year and that Micah Parsons is hopefully when I was making these plays, going to be back. Jerry Jones is fucking this shit up. You just talked about like Josh Harris, pay Terry McLaurin. This is changing the dynamic for me. All of a sudden. Micah Parsons, even if he plays, might not be in shape. The offensive line keeps losing starters to injury. Dak is a 31 year old who's clearly got creaky wheels, so he won't be as mobile as he has been. George Pickens could be a tepper tantrum away from ruining Brian Schottenheimer's rookie season. I'm losing all my enthusiasm.
- [29:12]
Chad Millman
Simon, good. We don't want you on this boat. No, it's. No one likes this team. That's what's been so fun. Like I, I remember we did our live show and I feel like it was years ago. It was whatever March or April and I gave it out as my best bet. The live show, it was met by kind of booze and I am with you people. We all hate Dallas. Dallas, you know, being the only team the NFC not to make the NFC championship game in the last 30 years. It warms my cold, cold heart. I love it like it's, it's the best thing ever. Like that meme of, you know, Eagles watching their super bowl reel on a DVD or on YouTube and Cowboys fans plugging in the VHS tape to watch their super bowl reel. I love it. I drink it up and you know, I hate that I have to be the guy. Gifford, you want to get in here? Let's hear it.
- [30:04]
Jake Hofer
Concisely, I don't think they're good enough anywhere. Offense, defense, but I think there's enough there to get to 8, 9 wins. It's probably looking like a classic Dallas Cowboys first round playoff exit team. But that, that's 8, 9 wins. I just don't want upside markets, don't think good enough anywhere around the ball.
- [30:29]
Chad Millman
So. And again, I talk to a lot of Cowboys fans because shockingly, people wouldn't believe if you're not from Philadelphia, we have a shocking amount of Cowboys fans in the this area. Like when I go to a sportsbook, even the offseason, there's about a 30% chance I will see a Dallas Cowboy hat or jersey in the sports book at any given time. They are here and talking to them, this is exactly the team. This is what you want. They have no confidence. If you talk to a Cowboys fan last year, holy were they on this Eagles team talking about how they were going to run away of this division, how they're the best, now they're all out. They do not like or trust this team. They're not that confident. And I'm the other way where it's like, this is the same Dallas team that's probably going to get the 12 wins or 11 wins. This is what they do. And people can shit on Dak for what he does in the playoffs. I agree. And we're not talking about that. We're talking about regular season right now, talking about win totals. And this was when I hammered and I was pissed. My model, I was like, oh, my model have a set 10. It doesn't. It has them at eight and a half because they do have a tough schedule. That's cool. It's a game above. So it's like. Because I already invested really heavily before I really ran and dove into it because when it first opened, I couldn't believe it. And then we saw when the schedule came out, the books were kind of ahead of it, right? Them having four Thursday games, it's criminal. Like them playing the Chiefs on a short week, that's brutal. But hear me out here, Chad. Let me, let me paint this Dallas Cowboys Steele division pitcher and how they can get to 12 wins. They start with the Eagles. Say they steal that game opening night. Doc always plays well against the Eagles. And this is the perfect time to steal this Type of game. Like no one's going to be counting on them. Everyone's out on them. I think they're still a seven point dog. Dak Prescott's a seven point dog against the Eagles. It's crazy. If they steal that game, then beat the Giants, then beat them, beat Chicago, that's a 3 and O start. That's not that crazy. Then beating the Giants or Chicago, okay, Green Bay is their kryptonite, but that's at home. Okay, I'll say they lose that game, then they go Jets, Carolina, Washington. They're. They're Washington's daddy. So like to me you're looking at a team right here that we sitting at six and one head into Denver. So like it's all laid out for me in my opinion of like if they can get out to a hot start, if they can go seven and two, head into their bye week, head into Vegas. It's all there because they literally go Vegas. Then they get affiliate home. Like it, it lines up for them early in the year that they could, if they can come out and play well, they can easily see this division. I think people are too down on Dak and this offense where Pickens was cd. I don't think people wrap their heads around how deadly of a combo this is going to be. Like Schonheimer could be a full on fucking idiot. And it's going to work on offense. I'm telling you it's going to work because exactly what Dak likes to do, which is run crow routes or slants across the middle. Pickens is deadly. Especially about fades too, which is really deadly. And CDs never had that. CDs always live with two or three shell cover. Now you're going to get him maybe in single cover sometimes it's usually it's probably going to still be double but even that he can beat the double. So I'm just so, so, so happy that this number is still plus 600 because I gave it up plus 700 and I thought for sure this would be plus 500 plus 400 by now. Still no one's drinking the cool. Everyone just hates this Dallas team. So yeah, this, even though I love the Eagles, I've, I've hyped it up. This is clearly my favorite value wise divisional bet. Plus 600. It's amazing. Amazing odds where I'm telling you people they're not that much worse than the Eagles. I have them at plus 300 for this division and for a win total. Again, my model has an eight and a half I think this is easily a ten win team, nine win team. So seven and a half. It's one of my favorite totals. I've been betting it for three months now. It's just, it's lined up for this team. It's just even, even with the Parsons drama, I agree with you. This is what Jerry does. Like, Jerry just does this type of thing. So I'm with you. I wish it wasn't happening this way and it could get ugly quick. But as we sit here right now, what is it? August 12, August 11. I'm confident that if they get it done the next week or two, that's, that's plenty of time, two, three weeks for Parsons to get into game shape before this Eagles game. I think that's plenty of time where he's been working out. But like you said, he's been doing zero contact, which is an issue like you, you need to have contact in the preseason to get ready for the upcoming season. So I'm like, that's, that's the only reason I'm not all in on this team. I think the Eagles are still going to steal this, win this division. It's just, it's, it's the Jerry Jones effect. He just. There's so much extra bullshit that these other teams don't have to deal with when you have Jerry Jones as your owner. Consistency is a Cowboy trademark underscored by winning seasons, division titles and world championships.
- [35:03]
Simon Hunter
So as has been the theme for the past couple of shows, we're generally on the same side. I feel like the things that you're discounting is not mattering specifically the Michael Parsons stuff. You kind of glossed over offensive line because I do think that offensive line injuries are piling up for them already and they were already having to figure out what to do with an offensive line that matters with a quarterback who's.
- [35:30]
Chad Millman
They haven't had that good of an offensive line brother in like three, four years. Like you're thinking of, right, Getting hurt. Yeah, but again, he's. Every year they win 12 games. Like last year was the anomaly. He got hurt. I think he was 3 and 5 when he got hurt. Like, he was not playing well. I agree with you. But like again, people have just moved too quick. Like you didn't have Deck in your top 10. You, you, you're out on me. I don't even think you had him. Your top 15. So that's what I mean. People are just totally out on Dak.
- [35:57]
Simon Hunter
Listen, let's.
- [35:59]
Chad Millman
You didn't mention his name. You mentioned to his name rather than mention that is. Well, I'm not letting you.
- [36:03]
Simon Hunter
That is revisionist history. I had dak at 13.
- [36:07]
Chad Millman
Yeah. So that's what I mean. It's just, they just line up as this team where people don't like their head coach. They're all negative about it and end of the year they're going to have somehow, some way, somehow they're going to have double digit wins and it's just the talent level is that high. I think they just have so much talent and my only fear right now for this team is what you just talked about, the Parsons with that D line. If it's a distraction, if they didn't, you know, add the right pieces, they still can't stop the run. Yeah, their defense could be atrocious, but that offense, man, like Dak has the ultimate weapons. And your question about their offensive line? They've been drafted offensive linemen and they've got some guys in there that I think do project out to be pretty good. So that's why I'm not as worried about them as you are. Where it's like, you know, if I, if you want to talk about bad offensive lines, I could spend a half hour on Miami's offensive line. So it's like you got to give and take with these certain teams about. I, I'm with you. There are some injuries, but yeah, it's, I think that with the weapons they have in Dallas, I just, I don't get why Washington's the second favorite team this division. I just think it should be Dallas again. As much love. I'm going to Dallas here. Still, people don't forget Eagles to win this division. Still probably the best bet at minus 145.
- [37:17]
Simon Hunter
New York Football Giants 30 to 1 to win the division. 75 to 1 to win the conference, 200 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Win total five and a half.
- [37:29]
Chad Millman
The New York Giants glory years are a distant memory for their long suffering followers who have endured through the worst of times. But today, anticipation has replaced frustration.
- [37:40]
Simon Hunter
I've been grilling AI constantly the last couple of weeks about the advanced metrics that best correlate to covering.
- [37:49]
Chad Millman
Oh, that poor AI.
- [37:50]
Simon Hunter
The spread. No matter. Any way I slice it, defense comes up. And we talked about this with the jets, right? Like defense success rate, defensive epa, pressure rate. If the Giants have Dexter Lawrence healthy in the middle of the defensive line, they can be a very disruptive force. When they were, when he was healthy Last year, top 10 in pressure rate because he commands so much attention. It made life so much easier for Cave, Kayvon Thibodeau and Brian Burns. Now they have Abdul Carter. So I was leaning to the over and I think a lot of it is similar to what you were saying about the Jets. Like they have the scheme and they have the defense that I think can be really impactful. And I kind of have to believe that their quarterback, probably Russell Wilson, can be competent enough to allow them to steal a couple of games because they got the commanders. Cowboys, Chiefs to start. Not easy. But then they got the Saints in week four. Then it gets hard again. Eagles, Broncos, Eagles, Niners. But this defense makes it hard for me to commit.
- [39:17]
Chad Millman
No, don't. Don't overthink it. You just nailed it, dude. They're dead. They are dead. They're in an impossible defense and a possible division without a quarterback. Like, it's their. When I first saw their schedule, I thought it was a glitch. I was like, wait, this is the last place schedule? Who, who's the last place teams? They play like it's the Saints. That's the one gift they get for coming in last place. It's brutal. Their schedule is brutal. There is no. It feels like there's no two weeks of just relief. Like they're, they're the relief this year for all. All these different teams. Like, this is just. Yeah, their defensive line might be all right. And Russell Wilson, sure, he could steal a game like Neighbors, is an incredible receiver. We've seen, you know, their head coach win games with a guy that, you know shouldn't even be in the league. Like, it's. They, they do have good coaching and they do have talent across the even. So I'm with you. I want to get into it, but you know, Andrew Thomas, their best offensive lines are already hurt. Like, that's, that's a nightmare. Me and you talk about last year, we, we didn't put a single dollar on them once he went down because we were just like, they're never. Whoever's quarterback there is just going to die. And that's what happened in the season. So it's, it sucks where, like, people obviously have seen a pattern here. I love betting the worst teams in divisions because it's always. You always can lie to yourself and lie and kind of think to yourself they could find six wins. Like, you know, there's, there's ways to get there. But with this team, despite what Chad said, which is true, like, they have probably one of the best D lines in all football, they might have one of the worst secondaries in all football. They might have one of the worst offensive lines in football. They don't have a running back. Like, what the hell is that? Dude's name's Cam Scatter. Boo. He's fun. I love watching his college highlights. That dude looks like he runs a fight. Like a 5.0 40. Like he. I don't know if he's gonna be the game changer. They need a running back. And, you know, as much as we love neighbors, teams were happy to let neighbors be the only guy to beat them, right? Last year we saw that where they would get up by 20 and you can stop doubling neighbors. He could get his junk time yard. So it's. It's just a team where I can't find five wins, let alone four wins. They just. They scream to be top of the draft type of team. And if I was them, I would just start dart from get go. Like, to me, he had one throw in the preseason and that's all I needed to see. Where it's like, okay, this kid's raw. He might not know how to take snaps from under center and command an offense, but let's just get him out there and let the bullets fly. Let him just get through it. Because if he can show something, then you keep him. If not, you're going to once again have a top two, top three draft pick like this. There's just no way this team is outside that draft zone. So it's. It's dark days right now for Giants fans. Like, it's just. You're in a division now with Jayn Daniels, Dak and Jalen Hurts, which, I mean, I think Chad's come around on Dak a little bit. He probably would say Dak's close to a top 10 quarterback. That's brutal. You're in a division with three potential top 10 quarterbacks. You're so far behind the eight ball. So, yeah, I. I did. I wanted to get there with you Giants fans and find wins for you guys. But I look at it, I'm just like, if they got the three wins this year, that to me would be a good season for this Giants team. That's how brutal of a schedule is, and that's how bad their team is when I plug them into my model. So I got him at four wins if you get over three tons of respect to this team. But yeah, five and a half, I'll take that under every time if it's a game and a half. So, yeah, they're. It should be. They're 201 to win the Super Bowl. That, that, that sounds right. They are that bad.
- [42:44]
Simon Hunter
Nightmare schedule.
- [42:47]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Like if you're a season ticket holder, I would take the year off for my Giants fan like this.
- [42:51]
Simon Hunter
I was shocked when I went through the schedule and I looked at it. I'm like, this is fucking insane.
- [42:58]
Chad Millman
How is this the last place schedule? I couldn't believe.
- [43:00]
Simon Hunter
How do they do this to somebody?
- [43:01]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [43:03]
Simon Hunter
The scriptwriters did not get the memo that you got to make one of the marquee teams in the biggest city have a little bit of a fighting chance.
- [43:13]
Chad Millman
No, it's, it's, they're just again, they're in a really brutal division. Our outside division games this year are just awful. Like, it's just like you said, playing, playing the AFC north or. Yeah, it's AFC north. Playing the AFC west doesn't get much worse.
- [43:28]
Simon Hunter
Favorite division. Bet for you it's the Eagles minus 145 and then maybe a little taste of the Cowboys at that.
- [43:36]
Chad Millman
Cowboys definitely. Best value for long shot, six to one.
- [43:39]
Simon Hunter
I like the commanders under nine and a half total wins. The favorites will return with our next episode Tuesday on The Action Network YouTube page where we cover the NFC north with a very special guest interview. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, subscribe, leave us. 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.
- [44:06]
Chad Millman
Love you.
- [44:14]
Simon Hunter
Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800- gambler.
- [44:25]
Jake Hofer
I'm Jake Hofer and this is Back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access?
- [44:43]
Chad Millman
Should you? That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.
- [44:48]
Jake Hofer
Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
- [44:55]
Ken Jennings
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land Jeopardy truthers believe in?
- [45:12]
Simon Hunter
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [45:15]
Ken Jennings
That's right.
- [45:16]
Chad Millman
They gave you the answers and you still blew it.
- [45:18]
Ken Jennings
The puzzler listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [45:27]
John Lithgow
Hello, I'm John Lithgow.
- [45:28]
Chad Millman
We choose to go to the moon.
- [45:30]
John Lithgow
I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast, One Small Step for Man, about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.
- [45:38]
Simon Hunter
You're a great pilot, Buzz.
- [45:41]
John Lithgow
That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't. Buzz. Starring me, John Lithgow, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [45:57]
iHeart Host
Get fired up, y'.
- [45:58]
Chad Millman
All.
- [45:58]
iHeart Host
Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people, an incomparable soccer icon, Megan Rapinoe, to the show and we had a blast. Take a listen. Sue and I were like riding the lime bikes the other day and we're like, wee like people ride bikes because it's fun. We got more incredible guests like Megan in store, plus news of the day and more. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports Network. This is an iHeart podcast.