The Herd with Colin Cowherd: The Favorites – NFC North Betting Preview with Seth Wickersham

Date: August 20, 2025

Host: Chad Millman (Action Network)

Co-Host: Simon Hunter

Special Guest: Seth Wickersham (Author, "American Kings: Biography of the Quarterback")

Episode Overview

This episode delivers a comprehensive betting preview of the NFC North division for the 2025 NFL season. Featuring New York Times bestselling author and acclaimed football journalist Seth Wickersham, the show explores NFL quarterback psychology, the Caleb Williams saga and Chicago Bears’ draft dynamics, deep insights into Seth’s new book, and ultimately transitions to sharp, quantitative and qualitative team-by-team betting breakdowns for Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago.

The episode is a must-listen for football fans interested in inside access to quarterback culture, sharp betting perspectives, and an early look at what’s driving win totals, divisional odds, and on-field narratives for one of the NFL’s most competitive divisions.

Segment Breakdown & Key Insights

1. Seth Wickersham on Quarterback Culture and "American Kings"

Timestamps: 04:14–26:09

- Reporting on Caleb Williams & the Chicago Bears

• Seth details his year-plus journey covering Caleb Williams, revealing how the Williams family meticulously "reverse engineered" his path to the NFL, using spreadsheets to rank schools and focusing on the #1 pick as a life goal.
• Seth highlights that Caleb and his father saw the Bears as a tough landing spot:

  "His dad is like, you know, the Chicago is where quarterbacks go to die. And he wanted to think big, like Jack Elway did, like Archie Manning did, and try to figure out a way to give his kids some agency over his future employer." (04:49)

• The experience of breaking news about Caleb Williams’s reluctance to join Chicago was “mind-blowing and chaotic,” revealing the friction between family planning and NFL realities.

- Book Themes — Why Quarterbacks Matter

• Seth’s curiosity as a "failed high school quarterback" fueled the book, aiming to uncover what makes QBs America’s key sports icons:

  "I wanted to write a book for anybody who's ever played quarterback, who's ever wanted to play quarterback, or anyone who's ever been kind of fascinated with it. And it's a very unique job. It's a very uniquely American job." (08:23)

• The book explores the psychological transition of being a QB past retirement, referencing legends like Elway, Steve Young, and Tom Brady:

  "You don't play quarterback. You are one. And that doesn't end when you stop playing." (13:40)

- Notable Book Quotes (No Spoilers)

• Teasers: John Elway’s philosophical take on life and death; Nick Saban’s "ruthless" recruiting lines for Arch Manning.

- Caleb Williams’s Leadership — Mental Makeup Discussion

• Seth offers a nuanced, layered take on Caleb’s readiness to lead NFL veterans:

  "I think that what Caleb has in abundance...is that the fame and the notoriety...created a monster where I don't think having one of the 10 best arms of your generation is just enough anymore. You have to have that quality that politicians have, that rock stars have, that lead actors have...a hole in your personality that needs constant adoration..." (12:20)

• NFL QBs now must be "field general, matinee idol...spokesperson for a multi-billion dollar organization," roles that extend long after their playing days.

- Handling Transition, Adversity, and Future Outlook

• Seth is "bullish" on Caleb, not overly worried about a slow start and emphasizing the challenges of adapting both ways—system to QB, QB to system:

  "He was incredibly tough...He obviously was working within an offense that wasn't cutting edge...If I were a Bears fan, I'd feel pretty good." (18:50–22:07)

- Sean Payton’s Quarterback Evaluation Formula

• Seth dives deep into former Saints/Broncos coach Sean Payton’s "failure index" for QB prospects—a data-driven measure of negative plays to identify NFL traits:

  "He created what is essentially a failure index...He looked at all of the quarterbacks' negative plays...First in 2017...that led him to Patrick Mahomes." (23:01)

2. NFC North Team-by-Team Betting Preview

Timestamps: 31:31–70:20

#### Detroit Lions

• Odds: Division +145, Conference +400, Super Bowl 10/1, Win Total 10.5
• After losing OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn, there’s skepticism built into their lower win total. But Simon is bullish on their talent pipeline:

  "I've come full circle...I'm even higher than I was a month ago on this team. It is because of the talent level." (32:53)

• Offensive line is a concern—losing Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler—but belief in scheme, Goff, and weapons is strong.
• Both hosts agree the Lions’ mental toughness stands out:

  "There is zero doubt with this team...everything I read about it, it's like, ‘This is exactly what you want to be reading about a contending team.’" (34:16)

• Best Bet: Lions over 10.5 wins; division winner +145.

#### Green Bay Packers

• Odds: Division +250, Conference 10/1, Super Bowl 20/1, Win Total 9.5
• Chad is more optimistic, trusting coach Matt LaFleur:

  "He makes really good decisions. He gets the best out of his talent...I'm not upset that I have Packers Super Bowl tickets at 20 to 1." (42:29)

• Simon is out on the Packers:

  "Their defense still has holes...offensively, I feel like I'm putting so much into Jordan Love taking that next step where he's shown me zero signs of him taking that next step." (44:53)

• Concerns revolve around receiver drops, Love’s readiness, and a rough potential early-season schedule—could easily start 1–3.
• Chad still rates LaFleur highly, but both agree this is the hardest division in football.
• Takeaway: Packers are a risky buy; betting market may be overvaluing them.

#### Minnesota Vikings

• Odds: Division +350, Conference 11/1, Super Bowl 20/1, Win Total 8.5
• JJ McCarthy era begins. Simon notes:

  "Every pro I talk to...they love everything about this kid...in practice, he's being more confident and consistent." (49:39)

• Simon calls the Vikings "probably the best value bet in this division because of the unknown of JJ McCarthy," even throws out MVP odds:

  "He was 120 to 1 to win MVP. He's down to 80 to 1. I still don't hate it..." (51:25)

• Brian Flores’ defense forces turnovers beyond statistical luck—scheme-based.
• Simon: "Out of the Green Bay, Bears, Vikings trio, I do put the Vikings at number two." (55:24)

#### Chicago Bears

• Odds: Division +450, Conference 16/1, Super Bowl 30/1, Win Total 8.5
• Highest ceiling/lowest floor team in the division, driven by rookie QB Caleb Williams and first-time NFL head coach Ben Johnson.
• Chad: "No QB has been more examined during the preseason. From missing the net on accuracy drills to looking like a Hall of Famer on an opening drive of the preseason." (60:03)
• The crowd and defense in the first preseason drive "felt like Bears football in January," but questions persist about how the offense looks after the first 15 scripted plays.
• Simon is fascinated by Ben Johnson’s scheme, especially seeing Cole Kmet running free:

  "That's what I want to see out of a Ben Johnson offense...that’s what makes Ben so unique and special." (62:33)

• Biggest question: Can Caleb lead grown men and handle adversity?
• Both hosts are excited for the future but temper expectations now:

  "This is the year of growing pains. If you can get in as a seven or six seed, that's a great season. Such a hard division...I can't get there on over 8.5. That's just too much in this division." (66:44)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “His dad is like, you know, Chicago is where quarterbacks go to die.” — Seth Wickersham, on Caleb Williams’s father’s mindset (04:49)
• “You don’t play quarterback. You are one. And that doesn’t end when you stop playing.” — Seth Wickersham (13:40)
• “I don’t think having one of the 10 best arms of your generation is just enough anymore… you have to have that quality that politicians have — a hole in your personality that needs constant adoration.” — Seth Wickersham (12:20)
• “There is zero doubt with this [Lions] team. They all, they put all the blame of last season onto those injuries… which is totally fair.” — Simon Hunter (34:16)
• “I've totally shifted my position [on the Packers]... it's all been so negative in camp.” — Simon Hunter (44:53)
• “If this kid [JJ McCarthy] is legit, with a stacked defense and a stacked offense, this could be a really, really tough team to get out.” — Simon Hunter (54:44)
• “No QB has been more examined during the preseason. From missing the net on accuracy drills to looking like a Hall of Famer on an opening drive…” — Chad Millman (60:03)
• “This isn't super bowl divisional win season. This is growing pains.” — Simon Hunter, on the Bears (66:44)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Meet Seth Wickersham / Book Talk: 04:14–14:00
• Quarterback Psychology & Afterlife: 12:20–16:00
• Caleb Williams’s NFL Transition: 18:50–23:01
• Sean Payton’s Process/Bo Nix/Mahomes: 23:01–25:35
• Lions Breakdown: 31:37–40:13
• Packers Breakdown: 41:13–47:53
• Vikings Breakdown: 48:17–55:24
• Bears Breakdown/Caleb Williams: 59:31–69:11
• Recap / Best Bets: 69:38–70:20

Final Thoughts & Podcast Best Bets

• Simon: Lions over 10.5 wins (favorite bet); strong divisional lean at +145; "JJ McCarthy long-shot MVP ticket."
• Chad: Leans Lions divisional price, +145; shares skepticism on Bears over 8.5 given division’s depth.

This NFC North episode offers both a rich inside look into NFL quarterback psychology via Seth Wickersham (and his new must-read book), and hands-on, actionable perspectives on futures, win totals, and how to properly weigh preseason hype, coaching changes, and locker room culture in betting tough NFL divisions.