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- [00:00]
Podcast Announcer
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:04]
Jake Hofer
Ever go to McNachos on game day and realize the cheese is missing or the chips or both? It happens all the time. But check it. Walmart Express delivery gets what's needed in as fast as one hour. One hour, people. And it's not just food. It's phone chargers, pet supplies, toilet paper. Try it now and get free delivery on a first order with promo code Express. Walmart Express delivery in as fast as 1 hour. Promotion valid for First Express delivery order $50 min Subject to availability restrictions apply.
- [00:37]
AJ Jacobs
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land Jeopardy truthers believe in?
- [00:54]
Seth Wickersham
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [00:57]
AJ Jacobs
That's right.
- [00:57]
Seth Wickersham
They gave you the answers and you still blew it.
- [01:00]
AJ Jacobs
The Puzzler. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:09]
Seth Wickersham
Tune in to all the Smoke Podcast where Matt and Stack sit down with former first lady Michelle Obama.
- [01:15]
Podcast Announcer
Folks find it hard to hate up close. And when you get to know people and you're sitting in their kitchen tables and they're talking like we're talking and you know, you hear our story, how we grew up, how Barack grew up, and you get a chance for people to unpack and get beyond race.
- [01:30]
Seth Wickersham
All the Smoke featuring Michelle Obama. To hear this podcast and more, open your free iHeartRadio app, search all the Smoke and listen now.
- [01:38]
John Lithgow
Hello, I'm John Lithgow.
- [01:40]
Chad Millman
We choose to go to the moon.
- [01:42]
John Lithgow
I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast, It's One Small Step for Man about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.
- [01:50]
Chad Millman
You're a great pilot, Buzz.
- [01:53]
John Lithgow
That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't. Buzz. Starring me, John Lithgow on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [02:17]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Huge, huge show today. Probably the biggest one of the preseason so far. Not just because of the division we're going to be doing in our previews, but because we have a very special guest. And I know, I know for a fact, my co host, my companion, my compadre might be a professional better. Simon Hunter loves this guest. Hello, Simon.
- [02:46]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, Chad. Life's good. Two weeks from today, we'll be talking week one lines. And even better, we have arguably, arguably the number one journalist, sports journalist. In America on the show today.
- [02:59]
Chad Millman
Arguably.
- [03:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Someone's going to argue the other side. There's always that guy.
- [03:04]
Chad Millman
It's not going to be me, brother. It's not going to be me. We are going to have our final two episodes of our annual division by division NFL previews. This week, we're finishing our team by team breakdowns. We will talk about the NFC north today. We will talk about the Chicago Bears. We will talk about Caleb Williams, which is appropriate because our guest today made some big, big news about Caleb Williams earlier this past spring because he's got a massive new book coming out, which is brilliant because he's brilliant and he's an intrepid reporter. He's a friend of the pot. He's my close buddy. He's the author of the new book American Kings, biography of the quarterback. Great title. Seth Wickersham, my brother.
- [04:04]
Seth Wickersham
I mean, can I just leave? It can only go downhill from here. Where can everybody buy the book? I'll talk to you later.
- [04:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah, good run. We had a great time.
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Seth Wickersham
Yeah.
- [04:15]
Chad Millman
Listen, you made the news this past spring about Caleb. It completely blew up that he did not want to be on the Bears. I want to get much, much deeper in the book, but give people a little bit of insight into what that is like when you are breaking that kind of story and then how chaotic and crazy the following weeks are. And a little bit about sort of your building up of a relationship with Caleb and his father, which is a huge, huge part of the book.
- [04:49]
Seth Wickersham
You know, I started working on the book in earnest in 2023. And Caleb was someone that I wanted to meet with just because he had won the Heisman Trophy his first year at usc. And he was kind of the first above board, multimillionaire college quarterback. He was the first professional amateur quarterback. And so I kind of wanted to learn about that. So I spent some time with here in New York, actually, and then I met with his dad months later in outside of D.C. and you know, at that point, his last season at usc, it was a little bit of a struggle. Like it just things didn't look right. But his dad and his. The people who knew Kayla best, who are all there at the meeting, were all really focused on the draft. And they showed me these slides of how Caleb picked a college. The spreadsheet that he used, how he ranked and weighted various schools and programs and aspects of it. And the more I learned everything from basically the beginning, you know, of his junior year of college was reverse engineered for this moment to be the first pick in the draft, and, my God, they were pulling it off. And so that, to me, was just mind blowing. And then you had this uncertainty. His dad is like, you know, the Chicago is where quarterbacks go to die. And he wanted to think big, like Jack Elway did, like Archie Manning did, and try to figure out a way to give his kids some agency over his future employer. And so while I was working on the book with other characters, I followed them through that process. I was in touch with them throughout. Then it happened. I wasn't really sure, you know, he ends up going to the Bears. I still wasn't sure what I would do with it. And then every premonition that his dad had about how things could go at the Bears went that way. I mean, they were horrible in every way. And it was very predictable. And his dad predicted it. And so at that point, I just kept reporting. I met with Caleb and his dad separately earlier this year to kind of fact check things. And then, you know, it's kind of a waiting game. Like, the weird thing about books is that, like, you do all this work, and then there are these massive gulfs of no action, of nothing happening while the book is in production, whatever it might be. And so that's kind of how it all came together. And then, you know, you're putting together a new story. Some editors did that. And then it goes out into the world, and you're doing a lot of talking.
- [07:21]
Chad Millman
Listen, I know Simon wants to jump in. Cause I was talking to Simon yesterday, and, you know, for those, Seth is one of my closest friends. We talk practically every day. So I don't think of him as a brilliant, intrepid reporter. But Simon is a true fanboy, so I want him to get his questions in. But to that extent, the book actually is brilliant. And I loved sort of the character development. And anybody who has ever watched a snap of football should buy this book because it's everything you want as a football fan. It's inside the game. You give great detail about various plays that anyone will remember from John Elway's life all the way through today. You mention Elway, you mention Manning. You were with both of them in addition to probably half a dozen other guys. Explain a little bit as succinctly and you sort of your pitch as you can, what people are going to get out of this book as football fans.
- [08:24]
Seth Wickersham
Well, I wrote it as, you know, as a. As someone who came in it from a place of real curiosity, having been a failed high school quarterback myself and having had my entire identity you know, at ages, you know, 14, 15 and 16, wrapped up in being a quarterback and what it's like walking through the hallway when you're the quarterback of the school and. And you know, that you, you know, as you know, I've worked at ESPN now for a long time, 25 years, and if you cover the NFL, you cover quarterbacks. And even after all these years, I still had questions, and I wanted to write a book for anybody who's ever played quarterback, who's ever wanted to play quarterback, or anyone who's ever been kind of fascinated with it. And it's a very unique job. It's a very uniquely American job. And I wanted to also not do a history of the forward pass, exactly, but a history of quarterback. Like, how did this job go from its invention in 1906 to very quickly being something that our culture celebrated and put up there with, you know, other luminaries that, you know, we honor and mythologize.
- [09:30]
Chad Millman
Said, you're leaving out two of my favorite things, which I'll tease for people. John Elway, who is just such a legend and is an important part of this book, has such an amazing quote that gives an example of how he thinks about his life and makes those comebacks throughout his career so much more clear about how he dreams about what will happen after he dies. I don't want to give it away because people should buy the book to read it. There is also one of the best quotes I have seen in a sports book because you are deep inside the recruitment at the time of Arch Manning, and there is a quote from one of the coaches who is recruiting him from a school that he did not end up going to. That is just so money from that process. Again, I don't know. I don't want, you know, what said you give the quote. Because I do want to. I don't want to, like, completely have people going blind. But do you know what I'm talking about from Alabama, Saban?
- [10:35]
Seth Wickersham
Yeah. Well, let's just say it got. Oh, the Saban one. Yeah. Well, I mean, let's just say that, like, you know, I wanted to tell the entire history of the Mannings and the story of the Mannings through Arch, and really specifically through Arch's recruitment. And I think I have some great details about how ruthless it got. Even though these guys are, like, all buddies, like all the college coaches, it's like they're all friends, but they are so ruthless. And they went to nearly any extent to try to get Arch to go to their school, including, you know, saying some things that, you know, let's just say like, you know, they're pretty, they're pretty personal. You know, when they, when they go with other, at their, at their competitors.
- [11:17]
Chad Millman
It's great. It's really, really good.
- [11:18]
Seth Wickersham
Thank you.
- [11:19]
Chad Millman
Just have to just buy the book. Just go to Amazon, go to American Kings. Buy the book. Simon. So Seth, I'm fan, I'm fanboying, but I'll let you.
- [11:28]
Simon Hunter
You've obviously spent a lot of time with quarterbacks in your career and again, I'm, I'm 15 years older than Caleb Williams. I can't relate to this kid in many ways. Obviously generational difference. When you spend time with him and all these other quarterbacks you spent time with have done great things in the NFL. Does he have the mental makeup to be a leader of men? Can you see him leading men for the next 10 years in a battle 18 weeks out of the year? Does he have that makeup to you? Or is he still childish in some ways? Where, you know, the big thing in media this past week was him throwing a hissy fit when he threw the ball. Missed the.
- [12:01]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
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Simon Hunter
And again that's, that's normal. We've all done that when we were 13. So that's what like all these pros, I'm talking to all these guys betting big money. Their big question is, can he be a leader of men? Caleb Williams. And what's your opinion on him? Because obviously you spent so much time with so many great quarterbacks. I would love to know your view on his mental makeup.
- [12:21]
Seth Wickersham
Well, if I knew the exact answer to that, I would have flown to New York on my private helicopter and go back to my mansion. But I think that Caleb is in the ballpark of having what it takes. We'll see. I think that the interesting thing to zoom out at one point I was sitting with Steve Young and we started going through all of the hats that you have to wear as a quarterback. Everything from matinee idol to field general to amateur psychologists to. To spokesperson for a multi billion dollar organization to breathtaking asshole at times, all these things. And I think we've stopped at 17 and it was probably still incomplete. And I think that what Caleb has in abundance and this is a kind of a timeless quality, I think, but it's really being clarified now is that the fame and the notoriety that has come with this position and the place that we hold it in our culture has created a monster where I don't think having one of the 10 best arms of your generation is just enough anymore. I think that you have to have that quality that politicians have, that rock stars have, that lead actors have, where there's a hole in your personality that needs constant adoration like writers that needs constant adoration, constant love, that almost needs to live in a self constructed ecosystem where everything revolves around you. And that in itself is fascinating because it is something that these guys need to do to hardwire themselves to make it through this unbelievable winnowing. From being one of like 16,000 starting quarterbacks in high school in America, to being one of 32 in the NFL, to being one of the 10 good ones, to being one of the three that make it to the hall of Fame. And it's also not something you just turn off. And I think that like it's not the healthiest way to live. And I think that when you're in retirement, especially you, like there's something I wrote about it quite a bit in the book because you don't just turn that off. You don't play quarterback. You are one. And that doesn't end when you stop playing. And so how you contend with that for the rest of your life is something I was really fascinated with.
- [14:37]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that to me was amazing. Sort of a lot of these guys, Warren Moon, you spent a lot of time with John Elway. Steve Young, you had in the past written about ya tittle and maintained a relationship with his family. So you understood sort of how he managed the rest of his life. And everything is not always as it appears with these guys, even when they look great, right. John Elway has made tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of dollars in his post NFL career. Steve Young, same thing, incredibly successful, but they're not, they're missing something, right? Like you are a quarterback. What was surprising to you as the reporting went on and then you were sort of examining it through the writing about how these quarterbacks portrayed themselves.
- [15:32]
Seth Wickersham
One of the requirements I had for a character, I thought, is that like they either have to be kind of an indispensable part of the quarterback story, like unit is Namath, the Mannings, or have enough perspective on their career that they almost had like an opinion about it and they could see it from the distance and you know, contextualize it in a way. And I think that in the process of doing that, I tried to understand what makes some of the guys more content in retirement than others. Because I mean, a lot of guys are completely lost. I mean, Tom Brady's talked about it. Think about of all quarterbacks in history, if not professional athletes, in history, in American history, at least, who had a better Runway into retirement than Tom Brady? I mean, he played until he chose to walk away at a high level. He had all these gigs lined up before he officially retired. He got to retire for a month and then come back. And so he even had a glimpse of what it would be like. And yet still, even in that year off that he had between his retirement and when he started at Fox, he felt lost. And, I mean, he did some curious things, including that roast. And I think that going back to what Simon was talking about and what we were discussing, it's like, why did he do that roast? And I think it's for the same reason that Mickey Mantle used to lock himself in his car during, you know, rainstorms, just so he could hear the rain pounding on the car, because that was the closest thing that he felt to what his everyday was once like a Yankee Stadium. I think that Brady needed to be back on stage and in the spotlight again.
- [17:13]
Chad Millman
Simon, do you want to go next?
- [17:15]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I. I have so many questions about Caleb just because, yeah, he's so unique in the sense that, you know, they talked about him getting ready to be an NFL player when he was like, 14, 15. And yeah, you know, we have plenty of people in the past history that, you know, they had those expectations, right? They were on their high school team, was on espn. They all the hype, and it's rare they actually live up to it. Like, this kid has met the moment every step in his career, from high school to when he got to college, went in the Heisman, you know, transferring, which is crazy to think, like, how many guys transferred to a different school then to win a Heisman with their. With that head coach. Now he's in the NFL. And, you know, I look at this trajectory of it where he's not lived in any sense a normal life, and I always wonder, how does that affect players like him where we're in a new age, right? Like, you just talked about the maintenance Eli Manning. Mean, people might be too young to realize he was an absolute legend at Ole Miss partying his freshman year. Like, I know people that went to school with him, and he was a dog. He was really a legend. And he turned it around, right? His dad got in his head, his brother got in his head, and we're like, you have the potential to be the number one pick. He got it right. He figured it out. But again, he went through that adversity. Caleb Williams. Adversity is different, right? This is. This is adversity. He's facing is the Chicago media. And I wonder how do you think he's going to handle that? Where, you know, sure, he went through a little bit of usc, nothing like this, like this adversity he's facing, where, you know, they start one and three this year, he's going to feel it. Right. So I would love to know your view on him, how you think he can face adversity.
- [18:51]
Seth Wickersham
First of all, I actually am very bullish on Caleb, and I think it's entirely possible that they start one in three because despite what happens in the preseason, these things take time. And you know, it takes time to learn a new offense and it takes time for the new offense to learn the quarterback. And, you know, context matters. But I think that, like with Caleb, the interesting thing with me is like Elway was the first player ever to be number one out of high school, first pick in the draft, first ballot, hall of Famer. Peyton came and followed that. And now Caleb, he comes along at a time where there is a way to do this right. There's a path to being a quarterback. You have to have media training, you have to have physical therapy training, you have to have a throwing coach, you have to have an arm care coach. You have to, you know, shop high schools and find the one that is doing an offense that best suits your skill set. You, you have to go to all of these passing camps that have no predictive value in these quarterback clinics that have no predictive value, like Elite 11, that, you know, that, as one person told me, breed little and succeed at them. And he did all that stuff, right? And I think that like, that to me is the most interesting, you know, part of the Caleb story is that like, of this new generation of guys who say, okay, I want to be a quarterback and there's a path to do this and this is the, this is how you have to dedicate your time and your resources and your energy. He managed to do it. And I think that like fast forward, you know, what does that mean for the NFL? I mean, so he, he had an up and down last year at usc. He obviously had that moment where he's crying in the stands after they lose to Washington and then he doesn't meet with the press after the game. And of course, that just doesn't fly in the NFL, right? You cannot, you cannot do that in the NFL. The locker room will turn on you. And he has a tough rookie year and I thought that the leadership and the toughness he displayed, I think anyone's rookie year is about survival. Like you can't extract too much from. But I think that, like, if you're looking to extract things from Caleb going forward, he was incredibly tough. Remember that shot he took to the knee? I think on Thanksgiving against Detroit when he was going out of bounds, got right back up. He obviously was working within an offense that wasn't cutting edge, let's just put it that way. He. He left some plays on the field, but like this was not a well organized offense and a. Well, it wasn't a well organized organization and yet in operation and yet he had some great moments at the end of the games where he was in those known passing situations and it's on him to make it work. And he did. And I think that Sean Payton developed this quarterback formula to try to measure processing speed that I write about. And even though Caleb Williams was never going to be someone that he was going to draft, he. He ran Caleb through it. And one of the things that he wondered about Caleb was like, how is he going to react when he's broken? Because he really hasn't been. And if that rookie year counts as that, I'm not sure it does, but let's just say it does. I think that if I were a Bears fan, I'd feel pretty good.
- [22:08]
Chad Millman
So you just said the magic words. I know you got to get out of here because you got to go do much bigger podcast.
- [22:13]
Seth Wickersham
I got time. How could I possibly leave when you guys are saying such nice things about me?
- [22:18]
Chad Millman
Well, we gotta go. We got other things to talk about. But before you go, like on this show, one of our favorite coaches of all time is the guy you just mentioned, Sean Payton. And you have spent a lot of time with, Sean Payton. You wrote a great story about him for ESPN and you profiled a lot of what he was. A lot of what you're talking about is captured in the book as well. You just talked about the processing speed. He gave you a lot of insight pre draft about what he was doing that, you know, you were sworn to secrecy, which you now have written about on ESPN.com as an excerpt for the book. Tell people who haven't seen any of those things. The relationship you had with Peyton in this book and what he shared with you about how he got to Bo Nix.
- [23:01]
Seth Wickersham
Well, Sean Payton has, aside from the fact that, you know, he's just one of the best offensive coaches of ever, he has always been haunted in a certain way. You know, all of us ex quarterbacks were all Uncle Rico's in some way, but with him in particular, he made it to the NFL as a replacement player and in 1987. And he struggled with processing speed, he struggled with multitasking. And so he obviously, you know, coached the hell out of Drew Brees. But when Brees was on his way out and towards the end of his career, he wanted to find a replacement and he wanted to figure out a way to quantify college processing speed and if it has a predictive value in the NFL, which is like, you know, that's, that's a gold mine in the analytics world and in the scouting world. And so when he did it, it wasn't unlike Billy Beane, who obviously came from a very autobiographical place in Moneyball, of having had been a five tool guy who didn't live up to it. So he knew that there's something else there and Sean knew that there was something else there. And so what he did was he took statistics that are available to everybody and he kind of weighted them and he created what is essentially a failure index. And so he looked at all of the quarterbacks negative plays and essentially tried to figure out how often they happen. And he did that first in 2017. And the quarterback that it led him to was Patrick Mahomes. He was going to draft Patrick Mahomes and then the Chiefs obviously traded up with Buffalo, took him, and the rest is history. And even though he, he coached Breeze for a couple more years, then he ended up set out for a year, got with the Broncos, Russell Wilson wasn't going to work out, so he kind of dusted off that formula when he was going to draft a quarterback in 2024. And Bo Nix had by far the best score of anybody, including Jaden Daniels, including Caleb Williams, J.J. mcCarthy, anybody. And so I think that he felt that he had found a diamond in the rough in Bo Nix. Using this formula and subsequent meetings with Bo and all of that stuff I just found fascinating that like, look, no one's saying that this is a silver bullet when it comes to quarterback evaluation, but here's a really smart guy who's done some things and he managed to find something that really looked like it worked. And I detail it quite a bit in the book.
- [25:35]
Chad Millman
It's fantastic. The whole book is fantastic. If you are a sports fan, if you are a fan of pop culture and how legends and myths are made and born, if you are a football fan, inside football fan narrative storytelling, football fan, just go buy the fucking book. Go buy American King's biography of the quarterback, go to Amazon, go to Barnes and Noble, walk into your Local book bookstore. It's by Seth Wickersham. Go buy it. Seti Wickersham. Thanks for joining us, buddy. Good to see you.
- [26:09]
Seth Wickersham
Hey, great to see you guys, as always.
- [26:12]
John Lithgow
Hello, I'm John Lithgow.
- [26:14]
Chad Millman
We choose to go to the moon.
- [26:15]
John Lithgow
I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast.
- [26:18]
Simon Hunter
That's One Small Step for Man.
- [26:21]
John Lithgow
It's about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.
- [26:25]
Chad Millman
Your great pilot, Buzz, as far as I'm concerned, the best I've seen.
- [26:29]
John Lithgow
That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't predisposition.
- [26:35]
Podcast Announcer
To depression, alcohol abuse and suicide.
- [26:37]
John Lithgow
We'll see Buzz try to overcome demons.
- [26:41]
Chad Millman
What do you say, Buzz? Another beer.
- [26:42]
John Lithgow
And triumph over addiction.
- [26:44]
Podcast Announcer
Here's to you, Buzz Aldrin.
- [26:47]
John Lithgow
Good luck to you and become a true hero.
- [26:49]
Simon Hunter
Buzz and I will proceed into the.
- [26:51]
John Lithgow
Lunar module not because he conquered, but because he conquers himself.
- [26:58]
Seth Wickersham
Buzz, we intercepted a Soviet radio transmission.
- [27:01]
John Lithgow
Starring me, John Lithgow.
- [27:03]
Seth Wickersham
Can you put it through?
- [27:04]
John Lithgow
Can you Translate on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [27:11]
Simon Hunter
Columbia.
- [27:12]
Podcast Announcer
Get fired up, y'.
- [27:13]
Simon Hunter
All.
- [27:13]
Podcast Announcer
Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people and an incomparable soccer icon, Megan Rapinoe to the show, and we had a blast. We talked about her recent 40th birthday celebrations, Co hosting a podcast with her fiance, sue, bird watching former teammates retire, and more. Never a dull moment with Pino. Take a listen. What do you miss the most about being a pro athlete? The final. The final. And the locker room. I really, really like you. Just. You can't replicate. You can't get back. Showing up to the locker room every morning just to talk. We've got more incredible guests like the legendary Candace Parker and college superstar Az Fudd. I mean, seriously, y', all, the guest list is absolutely stacked for season two. And you know, we're always going to keep you up to speed on all the news and happenings around the women's sports world as well. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.
- [28:17]
Chad Millman
Hello, puzzlers.
- [28:19]
AJ Jacobs
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land?
- [28:34]
Seth Wickersham
Jeopardy.
- [28:34]
AJ Jacobs
Truthers who say that you were given all the answers believe in.
- [28:39]
Seth Wickersham
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [28:42]
AJ Jacobs
That's right. Are there Jeopardy Truthers? Are there people who say that it it was rigged?
- [28:46]
Seth Wickersham
Yeah. Ever since I was first on, people are like they gave you the answers, right? And then there's the other ones which are like they gave you the answers and you still blew it.
- [28:56]
AJ Jacobs
Don't miss Jeopardy Legend Ken Jennings on our special game show Week of the Puzzler podcast. The Puzzler is the best place to to get your daily word puzzle fix. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [29:17]
Jake Hofer
I'm Jake Hofer and this is back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best podcast part of the farm with less than ideal access?
- [29:35]
Simon Hunter
Should you?
- [29:36]
Seth Wickersham
That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.
- [29:40]
Jake Hofer
Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
- [29:47]
Chad Millman
Quick heads up to anybody playing fantasy football this season. It is fantasy football time. The ultimate 2025 draft kit is here courtesy of our Fantasy Labs team. That means our award winning team, Ashawn Kerner and Chris Raybon and have their rankings, tiers and cheat sheets ready for you. To get them, you'll need a Fantasy Labs subscription and right now new subscribers can use code FLEX20 for $20 off at FantasyLabs.com Flex Let Shawn and Chris make your fantasy prep easier. Use code Flex20 for $20 off at FantasyLabs.com Flex Simon, I hope you enjoyed Seth. I know you're a big fan of his work and what he does and the book is amazing so I hope everyone will check it out. We're going on to the NFC North. Just a reminder, NFC north plays the AFC north and the NFC East. This is the only division in football with all four teams over eight and a half wins and Super bowl odds of 30 to 1 or less. It is so loaded with coaching. The three veteran coaches, Matt LaFleur, Kevin O', Connell, Dan Campbell in this division have covered on a regular basis. They have overachieved, they have won with backups. They have lifted their teams up through personality and through strategy. They are the guys that we love. Now here comes Ben Johnson adding them to the list. They all have huge personnel gaps that make a lot of this impossible to handicap right now. But Simon, we're gonna try anyways. Are you ready?
- [31:31]
Simon Hunter
Yes, I am ready. Chad yes.
- [31:34]
Chad Millman
Start with the Lions.
- [31:37]
Simon Hunter
Hello, Detroit. You've won my heart.
- [31:44]
Chad Millman
Division plus 145 Conference plus 400 Super Bowl. 10 to 1 win total. 10 and a half. Can talk about losing Ben Johnson. Can talk about losing Aaron Glenn. I do think that the defense is better by virtue of just being healthy. I think that they were on a path to be a really dominant defense last year and then they just lost everybody. They obviously have great talent at across the board, whether it's Jameson Williams, Aman Ross, St. Brown, the two running backs, the tight end, Jared Goff, who I think is great. But. Here's the but to me. Frank Ragnow, center, retired. Kevin Seitler, guard, signed with the Titans. I have serious concerns about their offensive line. And what I can't figure out is, is it an overreaction to downgrade then because of the loss of Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn? Have the books already accounted for that in the adjustment? Ten and a half wins is lower than where they were last year. I can't get a read on this one. I feel like everyone is off the Lions and that makes me think, are we missing something?
- [32:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I, I remember we talked about the, you know, season coming into this year, you know, our preview of playoff teams. I forced him in there because I was. I just couldn't get over the talent level. And I think I've come full circle in the sense that I'm even higher than I was a month ago on this team. And it is because of the talent level. And you just go through their last couple of drafts, some of their free agency moves, and it's just home run after home run. So this is a team I was trying to be down on because we've seen it time and time again. These windows are so small and when you lose coaches, it's a big deal. Especially an offensive genius like they had in a defensive genius in Aaron Glenn. Like, I think that guy is highly touted as well. But when you really dive into it, it's unreal. The talent of this team, maybe, you know, the best safety group in football. I agree with you. The weakness is definitely giving that offensive line. Like, I'm glad you brought that up because I don't think enough people are talking about that with this team. To me, that is an adjustment. But, you know, we've already talked about a couple teams that have suspicious offensive lines and I'm a big believer in scheme and quarterback can always overcome bad offensive line. Like, yes, there's going to be players you'll lose out on because you have such a bad offensive line, they can't, you know, adjust the blitz come and different things like that. But overall, long term, you know, if you have a really good quarterback and really good weapons and an offensive scheme, they will, they will figure out how to move around that offensive line and make it work eventually. So for this team, I was going, I was looking for other teams this division of dethroning this team. It's not that it's been bad for all these other teams, but it all feels like they're all still a year or two behind this Lions team that's so established that just they know the deal like in that locker room. There is zero doubt with this team. They all, they put all the blame of last season onto those injuries like we talked about, which is totally fair. I think we talked last week or the week before. I had them as our number one team coming to the season last year and my model has them at number four. Despite losing all that offensive, you know, minded talent with Ben Johnson and offensive line pieces, they're still my number two offense graded wise. So it's like I don't know, I wanted, I wasn't trying to be overreactionary and I feel like I was making them my seventh seed. We did our playoff rankings. Now when I really dive into it, I've been investing heavily into their, into their divisional odds. I've been investing into their win total and the ten and a half. If people are so confused about it, I think it is because of the coaches they lost, but I just think it's part of the schedule. Right. They have a tough schedule compared to what they had last year. And it's also because I think their division obviously is better in many ways. But you know, the fact that you could get them right now as a dog at Green Bay Week 1 where Jordan Love has surgery on his non throwing hand. He's not practicing. That's. I mean people know secret. I've been hammering that you could tease it up right now to seven and a half. Like that's, that's exactly where I want to be with this, this Detroit Lions team. So yeah, people can probably tell I've, I've really done a 180. I'm. I'm fully all in on this Lions team. It's just the talent level is just so insane that even if they do stick, they could step back offensively. I think getting guys back healthy on defense will be such a bump that you know, at worst can see this team being 11, 5, 10 and 7. You know, like 11, 6, 10, 7, like that is a possibility. But I don't see them missing the playoffs. I don't see them being outside this divisional race. So yeah, I know it's boring, people. I know we're going with another, another team that won their division last year. But it's just all these other teams are having drama right now and everything I've read in camp about this Lions team is they've not missed a beat. The offense is super high flying defense is just a bunch of nuts playing hard for their head coach. I just, everything I read about it, it's like, all right, this is exactly what you want to be reading about a contending team heading into, you know, two weeks away from heading to the season. So yeah, give me lines. Over ten and a half. Give me lines plus 145 divisional odds.
- [36:58]
Chad Millman
I'm so glad to hear you say that. I really am. Like I, I, I've been looking at this team and looking really mostly at the numbers and all of it feels like, well, like I said when I was launching into this, like too much of an overreaction. Like all of it feels, the overreaction of the public feels priced in. And you know, there are teams that when they've gotten to the level the Lions have gotten to and have had back to back heartbreak years, don't forget they were ahead in that NFC title game against the Niners two years ago. Last year they were clearly the best team in the NFL and they basically, they lost about 19 guys on their defense and not insignificant guys for an insignificant amount of time. Their best guys for season long. And so teams can crater. You get none of that from the Lions. Like they seem to be so focused, so mentally strong. We talked a lot with Seth about sort of mental toughness, right. And can Caleb Williams be that guy? You don't get the sense that Jared Goff won't be that guy or that there's any less of confidence in Jared Goff from that team at this point. If you're making a bet in the Lions, there's no on field metric that's going to tell you what to do. You were only betting on the Lions being a well coached team with incredible talent and getting over the transition of Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson. That's it. Like you're just having an opinion. There's no number that can get you there. It's just an opinion. I think I'm with you. The more I, the more I have thought about it coming in, it was weighing on me hearing you talk about it getting plus odds on them for the division feels good.
- [38:49]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it has to be this year though, because yes, I look at this division, it is so talented, but it's young and that's the Chico they have. They have the veteran team in a very young division. But we know the deal, right? Like this is, you know, outside that AFC west, this is probably the best head coaching group in all football in this division. So, you know, Lions fans know we know it. Windows close very quick. The window could shut this year, right? They could have easily have a year from hell. I know people think they had one last year. They were the one seed. Like as bad as it was last year, that that offense didn't lose any cogs in the machine, it was the defense that was hurt. So that's, that's my view on this Lions team is that, you know, if you want to take them 10 to one Super Bowl, I, I get it. I just don't do it because I have, I have mixed feelings about golf in the playoffs, but regular season wise, this just feels like another juggernaut. And you know, I, I would not be shocked if me and you were talking week seven and eight and I have them moved up to my number one team in my power rankings in my model, just because that's. If they do overcome with. Chad just talked about their head coaching problems and the assistance and you know, that's, that's the question here. It's. It's all on man Campbell. Like, it's. He's no longer has the oc, the DC that, you know, people can rely on. It really is on his plate and with a couple of new guys. So that's like we just said, that's the only hesitation question about this team. It's not the talent, it's just simply the coaching.
- [40:14]
Chad Millman
Little bit of a Chiefs vibe, right? When the Chiefs sort of get overrated, when the Chiefs get discounted by the public and all of a sudden there's value on them because, you know, they lost this, they lost that. People looking for holes in Mahomes, whatever it is, it has a similar feeling to me of the past couple of years. Like let's, let's go all in on the Eagles, let's find a way to love the packers, etc. Etc. By the way, breaking news from the second floor of my house here on West Hartford from Owen Millman, who is texting me literally while being on the floor in the room directly below mine. Daniel Jones has been named as the Week 1 starter for the Indianapolis Colts. The Anthony Richardson era will continue to have to wait.
- [41:00]
Simon Hunter
That's good for me. Someone that wants the Colts to be a team I can bet on. So yeah, that's, that's a big deal. Right? That's. I don't want to say nailing the coffin Anthony Richardson, but he, he, his career might be done in, in Indianapolis.
- [41:14]
Chad Millman
Green Bay packers plus 250 in the division conference 10 to one Super Bowl 20 to one win total nine and a half. So look, we've talked about this. I think we both bet the packers at 20 to 1 to win the super bowl early in the off season.
- [41:28]
Simon Hunter
No way. Did I really.
- [41:29]
Chad Millman
I think you did. Yeah.
- [41:32]
Simon Hunter
Only thing I have in my book is your 49ers bet and rams.
- [41:35]
Chad Millman
I could have sworn we bet the packers too. I have a. I have it in my.
- [41:39]
Simon Hunter
I can't believe. I don't know what was wrong with me in February. That's crazy. Crazy.
- [41:44]
Chad Millman
The offensive line got better. I think the receiving core got better. I think their pass rush is middling at best. But I still think like you're, you're, you're skeptical. To me, I don't hate this because if Jordan Love is fully healthy for week one, it's a non throwing injury. I do believe he'll be back and sort of at full capabilities and he can play all season. Matt LaFleur is one of those guys like we don't want to bet against him. He makes really good decisions. He gets the best out of his talent. I'm not afraid of putting money. I'm not, I'm not upset that I have Packers super bowl tickets at 20 to 1.
- [42:30]
Simon Hunter
I'm just, I don't know what's happened, but I'm out on him. I know I picked them for playoffs a couple months ago. I just. When I look at this division, there's other teams I like better with that I think have better value and are better and are just built better where this team. I don't trust the wire receiving core like they talked about working on the drops. Everything I've seen in preseason and read from their beat riders is the drops have continued throughout practice with all different players. Now they might have nailed golden like this kid might be an absolute stud. The kid that took in their first round speedster with good hands. That's a big deal. But my issue is the Jordan Love part too where you know Jordan Love had an incredible seven game run, beat the Cowboys in the playoffs, you know, well deserved. Took the 49ers to it, right. Like they were really in that game. And he got paid for it. And last year was the season from hell. But their head coach held that team above water, right? He was able to make it work with a backup quarterback and got that team in to be, you know, a seventh seed in the playoffs. Like tons of respect to Green Bay. And I think that's why coming to the year, I had so much respect for them and just what they did last year. But I'm really diving into it. Their defense still has holes to it. Even though they've drafted the defense and they've tried to add to it and make it better through frequency, it still to me ranks, you know, below the Bears. Like, I have them fourth in this division defensive wise and offensively, I feel like I'm putting so much into Jordan Love taking that next step where he's shown me zero signs of him taking that next step. And I threw out last year because he played through about three different injuries and now he's already banged up his not throwing in, which again, not a big deal. But him not practicing and doing the things he needs to do these last couple weeks. It's a big deal to me because this is the guy that needs reps. He is such an unfinished product that he needs these number one reps with these receivers that have drop issues. So it's just because this division, if this team was in the NFC South, I'd probably would be all over them to beat the Bucks and win the South. But when I really go through it, their def. Their division's so talented. I just don't think that it's worth investing in them anymore. Like to me, you know, I wanted to be on this team to win this division. I was really high on them, but it's just all been so negative in camp. I'm just worried about them heading into the season where a lot of this rests on, you know, Jordan Love and what he's going to be heading the season if he's healthy or not. So yeah, in, in three, four weeks in this season, I could change my tune of this team if they come out and they look right. But I think they're going to come out and be sloppy and they can't afford to drop early games. Right. They come out of the gates, Detroit, Washington, Cleveland, Dallas and then their bye week. So I know it doesn't sound that hard on paper. That's. That could be a 1 in 3 start heading their bye week. And that's my fear where if they start 1 and 3 in this division, I don't know if they can crawl back because I am again so high on all these other teams. So yeah, there had to be one team I was going to be negative on and it's, it's Green Bay. I just, I've totally shifted my position on them. I just don't like everything coming out of camp and they're a team that I feel like is another, you know, could they get to 10 and a half, 11 wins? Of course, if things break right at Jordan Love, they could easily get there. But I don't think it lines up for them compared to these other teams in their division right now. I just, it's. It seems like it's a bad camp heading into a season that could be a little rough for them where, you know, they've had two straight years making the playoffs. Chad, that's, that's a nice run. It makes sense they would have a down year.
- [46:02]
Chad Millman
Well, look, their rushing game would have to be almost historic and back to back seasons, right. What they did last year with Josh Jacobs and their ability to have him control the offense created so much momentum for them and masked a lot of issues. You talk about it with the wide receivers. Obviously they had a lot of quarterback injury issues. That is how they dominated the game. But it's also because Matt La Flor recognized this and recognized that was the way schematically for them to take advantage of their best chances to win. Maybe I'm overvaluing how good a coach Matt LaFleur.
- [46:43]
Simon Hunter
You're not though. Like that whole thing he did. Malik Willis. I'm with you, Chad. That blew my mind last year. It was incredible.
- [46:47]
Chad Millman
Genius. Yeah, like I think he's, to me, he's on par with in terms of strategy. Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, like these are guys who know their personnel and know the opposition's personnel so well that they can steal two to three games a year no matter who is on the field because other teams can't match up with them as well. And I do think, I can't decide if it's saying a lot or not saying anything to say that the packers have the fourth best defense in this division because I do think the three defenses we're talking about, with the Vikings and the Lions especially, but the Bears are, are elevating into elite level. They were incredible in the second half of the year last year and everything about their defense during training camp has been dominant, whether it's been joint practices. We obviously saw it in the preseason and I know they don't count, but they mean something in the preseason. So interesting. I feel like we're. If you got to be down on someone because you can't love every level four.
- [47:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So I know. I can't believe I flipped on them because I really like them coming to the season. But when it's all negative like this, heading to a season, rarely with a young team like this does that work out. For, like you said, lafleur is the cheat code. Like, he could easily write the ship pretty easily. And this is going to be another dominant season for Green Bay.
- [48:12]
Chad Millman
Right. But the truth is everyone in this division is a cheat code.
- [48:15]
Simon Hunter
Exactly. You know, that's. That's why it's so hard.
- [48:17]
Chad Millman
Right. Okay, here's what's interesting to me. The Vikings plus 350 conference 11 to one. Super Bowl 20 to one. Same as the packers, win total eight and a half. So either at 20 to one, either the packers are overvalued, which you may believe, and the Vikings then are undervalued at 20 to 1. To me, that's how you have to sort of. It's binary. In this case, I don't think, like the Vikings and the packers are necessarily even here. And I don't think that they're. I think the packers are closer to being priced right at 20 to 1 than the Vikings, who I think there's probably like they're. To me, they're overvalued, I mean to say, because I don't think they should be 20 to 1. We don't know about JJ McCarthy. What we know is that last year we did not believe in this team because of Sam Darnold, which was a mistake. We under underestimated Kevin o' Connell because while he was coaching with the suspect suspect quarterback in the hardest division of football, they were in it until the very last game of the year. So now he gets the guy that he liked and wanted to start last year and he's proven he can coach basically any quarterback. So why shouldn't we believe in their ability to compete?
- [49:40]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, this is the team I flipped on. It was another year. I was like, okay, I'm happy to sit it out and see if JJ can take that next step. And not that I've been bullied, but every pro I talk to, who knows what they're talking about while evaluating quarterbacks, they love everything about this kid. And, you know, they loved it in July. Here we are in mid August and the beat writers are coming around on this kid and they're really loving them. And you're seeing it in Practice, he's being more confident and consistent. Which is exactly what if you're a better and you're taking a position on him, that's what you're hoping for. But Chad's right. Like them being the same with Green Bay to me is crazy. That means someone very smart with a lot of money has moved this number because this was not 20 to 1. Me and that me and Chad talked months ago about the Vikings. So you know, I, I look at this team as, you know, last year we did get burned by Sam Darnold. Anyone that was like flexing, they're like, yeah, see my model predicted that. Your model is trash. There is no way your model predicted Sam Darnold being a fourth quarter hero like he was last year. That's just something that, it's unpredictable. Now if you said you based it off their defense and what their defense can do, I agree that was something I definitely missed that. You know, the year before we talked about two years ago, they had this Flukish thing where they basically led the league in fumble recoveries. And that was part of the reason we're like, okay, their defense might be great under Brian Flores, but they'll take a step back with the turnovers and it didn't happen. Right. They had Sam Donald was able to protect the ball and they were able to force ton of turnovers last year. This Vikings defense. So we can agree this is part of their scheme with Brian Flores, like he, whatever he's running and it, it values attacking the ball and getting thrown over. So yeah, looking at this team, it's to me the probably the best value bet in this division because of the unknown of JJ McCarthy and I know it sounds crazy to do. He was 120 to 1 to win MVP. He's down to 80 to 1. I still don't hate it and I know again it sounds crazy, but you have to look from the standpoint of in the NFL this happens all the time where a guy misses a year or whatever, someone's ahead of him. Like Mahomes with Alex Smith and that year two, when they come in and start, there's no tape on them to prepare. These other teams can't adjust to it during the season and they can have an incredible season. And it lines up for them where they have Hawkinson, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, all these incredible weapons on offense with a top five offensive line that if JJ is legit, this kid who all he did in high school was win, if you go back and look at his stats, just an incredible winner Gets the Michigan same thing. And our biggest question was, can this kid throw the ball like Harbaugh wouldn't let him pass the ball. So right there it's tons of red flags. And now we're seeing with KOC who's opening it up for him. The kid's got hell of an arm. It's all about the confidence. If he can believe in his own talent. So that's, that's why again, I'm still all in on alliance from this division because I still think this team feels like a year away. But I, I see the light. I see why pros have been hyping up this team and talking about them for the last six months now. Because if JJ is that guy and he can do what Sam Donald did last year, add in his athleticism and you know, be naive like that's the key too is he doesn't know any different. Right. This kid is so naive coming to this league. He, he hasn't gone through all the bullshit that Sam Darnold did that. I mean we can both admit that. Caught up, whatever that mental thing is caught up to Sam against Detroit and the Ranch.
- [53:15]
Chad Millman
Yeah. That mental thing is called ghosts and interior pressure. That's all it is.
- [53:20]
Simon Hunter
We all have that inner monologue like we all that self doubt. And that's the hope with JJ is he, he's the puppet that's never been hit. He's got the good life, right. He's got the owner that loves him. Like he's only been smoke blown up his ass told how great he is. Hey, we got rid of Sam Darnold because this is your team. This is all you lead us to the promised land. So to me it's lined up for this team. And at eight and a half wins, I hate it. I wanted to fade this team so bad. I have to take the over because it's like if this kid's legit with a stacked defense and a stacked offense, this could be a really, really tough team to get out. So again, brutally hard division. That's why I'm not going all in. Like to me the biggest bet I've made is the line so far win total wise. But it's like eight and a half. They should just be the same as Green Bay. They should be nine and a half. Like they should not be eight and a half. There should be a nine half win total because we've seen it time and time again. Like a team like them that, you know, would they win 14 games last year? Is that really that big of A drop off going from jj, from Sam Darnold to jj. I don't think there is. I think it really is scheme debase. So last year, I believe it was fluky in some ways, but come on, they were going to get to 10 or 11 wins. Like, even with Sam playing out of his mind in all those fourth quarters, this was a complete team last year. And you just said it. They've added pieces this offseason to this team because they're paying a rookie quarterback. So it's lined up for this team. Right. They brought in Jordan Mason to be the red zone running back as well. So, yeah, people can tell. I've been around a lot of Viking truthers these last couple months, and it's been picking away me. I've been holding strong, but once I watch tape on him from their. Their practices and once I've read the B writers, it's like, okay, this kid, I can't keep denying he might actually have the goods because that's. That's the fear is betting. Like Chad talked about, this kid is totally unknown. I'm betting on preseason hype, which is never good. But again, I'm not heavily invested. I still think the lines are the best team this division. I just out of the Green Bay Bears Vikings trio. I do put the Vikings at number two.
- [55:25]
John Lithgow
Hello, I'm John Lithgow.
- [55:26]
Simon Hunter
We choose to go to the moon.
- [55:28]
John Lithgow
I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast.
- [55:31]
Simon Hunter
It's One small step for Man.
- [55:34]
John Lithgow
It's about Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.
- [55:38]
Chad Millman
You're a great pilot, Buzz. As far as I'm concerned, the best I've seen.
- [55:42]
John Lithgow
That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't predisposition.
- [55:47]
Podcast Announcer
To depression, alcohol abuse and suicide.
- [55:50]
John Lithgow
Side, we'll see Buzz try to overcome demons.
- [55:53]
Chad Millman
What do you say, Buzz? Another beer.
- [55:55]
John Lithgow
And triumph over addiction.
- [55:57]
Podcast Announcer
Here's to you, Buzz Aldrin.
- [55:59]
John Lithgow
Good luck to you and become a true hero.
- [56:02]
Simon Hunter
Buzz and I will proceed into the.
- [56:04]
John Lithgow
Lunar module not because he conquers space, but because he conquers himself.
- [56:11]
Seth Wickersham
Buzz, we intercepted a Soviet radio transmission.
- [56:13]
John Lithgow
Starring me, John Lithgow.
- [56:15]
Seth Wickersham
Can you put it through?
- [56:17]
John Lithgow
Can you Translate on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [56:23]
Simon Hunter
Columbia.
- [56:25]
Podcast Announcer
Get fired up, y'. All. Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people and an incomparable soccer icon, Megan Rapinoe, to the show, and we had a blast. We talked about her recent 40th birthday celebrations, Co hosting a podcast with her fiance sue, bird watching former teammates retire and more. Never a dull moment with Pino. Take a listen. What do you miss the most about being a pro athlete? The final. The final and the locker room. I really, really like you. Just you can't replicate. You can't get back. Showing up to the locker room every morning just to talk. We've got more incredible guests like the legendary Candace Parker and college superstar AZ Fuddy. I mean, seriously, y', all, the guest list is absolutely stacked for season two. And you know we're always going to keep you up to speed on all the news and happenings around the women's sports world as well. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.
- [57:30]
Chad Millman
Hello puzzlers.
- [57:31]
AJ Jacobs
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is, what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land?
- [57:46]
Seth Wickersham
Jeopardy.
- [57:47]
AJ Jacobs
Truthers who say that you were given all the answers believe in.
- [57:52]
Seth Wickersham
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [57:54]
AJ Jacobs
That's right. Are there Jeopardy. Truthers? Are there people who say that it it was rigged?
- [57:59]
Seth Wickersham
Yeah, ever since I was first on, people are like, they give you the answers.
- [58:02]
Simon Hunter
Right?
- [58:03]
Seth Wickersham
And then there's the other ones which are like they gave you the answers and you still blew it.
- [58:09]
AJ Jacobs
Don't miss Jeopardy. Legend Ken Jennings on our special game show Week of the Puzzler podcast. The Puzzler is the best place to get your daily word puzzle fix. Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [58:30]
Jake Hofer
And this is back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access?
- [58:48]
Simon Hunter
Should you?
- [58:48]
Seth Wickersham
That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.
- [58:53]
Jake Hofer
Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
- [58:59]
Chad Millman
I watch a lot of Chase Daniel, the ex quarterback. He's got a great YouTube channel where he breaks down quarterbacks and he does it on TikTok too. The three quarterbacks he has spent the most time on pointing out like, oh, this guy's good. Are you ready? 1. Cam Ward, which you've been on for months. 2. J.J. mcCarthy 3. Caleb Williams.
- [59:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [59:32]
Chad Millman
So let's talk about the Bears for a second. Because their division is 450 Conference 16 one Super Bowl 30 to one win total, eight and a half. Reminder, NFC north is the only division that has all four teams with win totals of eight and a half or higher and Super bowl odds of 30 or shorter. That's how good people expect this, this division to be. It's a little bit like it was last year or two years ago. That was the AFC north where the Browns, the Bengals, the Steelers and the Ravens were all over eight and a half. So look, the Bears, anyone would argue highest ceiling, lowest floor because their combination of new coach and relatively new quarterback is so unknown and so loaded with potential and no qb. We just talked to Seth about it has been examined more during the preseason. We us Seth, two questions. They were both about Caleb Williams mental state. No quarterback has been more examined during the preseason. From missing the net on accuracy drills to looking like a Hall of Famer on an opening drive of the preseason. I was in Vegas all last week. I got home later in the afternoon evening on Saturday night, got home just in time to turn on the Bears playing the Bills. And like I turned it on at 10 after 8 that first drive.
- [61:03]
Seth Wickersham
The.
- [61:03]
Chad Millman
Crowd was so insane. Caleb was so good. Dropping back, quick decisions, laser throws, no hesitation whatsoever. And then that defense and that crowd, it felt like it was Bears football in January. Right? That's how starved people in Chicago are for a team that can perform at a halfway decent level. But just because Ben Johnson has been a genius coordinator doesn't mean he will be a genius head coach. Right? And as much as I think the defense has gotten so much better in personnel, in coaching and the offensive line is so much better. Joe Tunney, Drew Dahlman. I really worry about this team because this scad is such a mix of high and low. They get the Saints, but they get the Eagles. They get the Giants, but they get the Ravens. Then they get the Lions, packers and Vikings twice, including opening the season with the Vikings and Lions. And by the way, the team that crushed their soul and mine on a live podcast, the Washington Commanders in week three. Eight and a half like seems like a tall order for a team where if they got to seven or eight, I think it would be a massive, massive success.
- [62:33]
Simon Hunter
And that's what I have him. I had him at eight wins. So I am towards the under here, but I didn't bet the under. I'm honestly leaning towards the over just because of what you talked about, that, that Ben Johnson upgrade And we talked on the phone last night and I told you what got me really fired up wasn't the touchdown pass obviously was the misdirection and having your second tight end Clement running 30 yards down the field in stride, Caleb hitting them and like that's, that's what I want to see out of a Ben Johnson offense is the misdirection and a 30 yard bomb down the middle to your tight end because that's what makes him so special. It's like you need someone to think differently when everyone else is thinking the same and that's what makes Ben so unique and special. And I told you month ago it was going to be ugly early on with Kayla because Ben is such a psycho. And if you're not running it right, he's going to make you run it again and again and again and you're going to hate him, you're going to resent them, you're going to get pissed off about it. But that's his style because he wants perfection. And you know Caleb, like we talked about, the reason I was asking Seth so much about Caleb is because I'm a believer in Caleb. Like I've followed him obviously since he's in high school. I've heard about this kid in the DC area and I've been following him this whole run and, and every step of the way. I've agreed with the other pundits of no, this kid is the once in a generational talent. He's one of a kind and he's coming to the league and there was flashes of it. People already are burying them, leaving them for dead. Right. They already had. Jaden Daniels is by far the best quarterback in that class and maybe Drake May is even better than Caleb Williams. And that to me is just the overaction area of the NFL and the general public. And I always say two to three years, right? That's what you should give these rookie QBs the two to three year window before you really start making those type of proclamations. And you know, when I watch Caleb I saw the flashes of why he is so great. But that's what I was asking Seth about his mental makeup was there's so many things he did last year that yes, the coaching staff failed him in many ways but Caleb was failing in many ways. And we all can agree that we saw what happened after that Washington game that they completely, you know, caved in on themselves and that all really started with him. He just, that's why I want to know if he can he be a Leader of men. Because this isn't, you know, little kid anymore. Like these are grown ass men looking to him for leadership in these dark moments and can he do that and be that personality type. So you know, when I dive into your guys roster, the talent is there and I do think the defense right now is probably ahead of the offense in some ways because you know they have attacked that unit in a lot of ways and you know we still have questions about even though they spend money and they've attacked the offensive line, there's still questions about the offensive line in some ways. So you know, not enough I can get at a training camp. But I, I, if I'm a Bears fan, this is excited as I've been since that Mitch Trubisky year that year too where you know, I think Chad even bet the 50 to 1 Trubisky MVP odds because I get it though like that that's the trajectory of these quarterbacks. So that's what I think this year is for this Bears team, right? This is the, the year before it, right? This is going to be what Chad just said, seven, eight wins for this team this year. I think that would be a great first year for this QB coach combo and that should be the expectations now. You know, fans are always going to want more if you guys start hot, right? Let's look at the schedule. If you guys beat Minnesota, Detroit, lose a Dallas and then beat Vegas, you're three and one head into that bye week. How do you not drink the Kool Aid? So that's why like it's going to be tough with Bears fans here where you know, the excitement might be so hard to pass on because it's great that you have the Vikings in Detroit early on because there's gonna be no tape on Caleb in this offense. Like you could beat these teams early on because there's nothing to really defend against. They don't know how to scheme against it. But me and Chad know this could easily go the other way that Caleb could look totally fucking lost when the bullets start flying. And after the first 15 scripted plays it could get ugly really quick because this is a whole new scheme for this Bears team with a young team. So without that unknown. That is why I, I like this Bears team. But you know, I'm just, I, I can't bet this over. I can't bet their divisional odds. I can't really do anything with them here because it's like what am I investing? I, I get why there's more confidence in these pros betting The Vikings there is in this Bears team because I think there's just a little fear of Caleb Williams and his mental makeup right now by most bettors. So it's. I'm really excited to see what this team's like and how Caleb, you know, handles this year. Because to me, he didn't once go to the media and talk about anybody last year and that was so impressive to me. But Caleb, I know again, Seth just said the kids have been trained to how to talk to the media since he was 15 years old, but that was impressive. Like he had so many times he could have broke and shifted blame to the ownership that go to staff, all that bullshit last year. And he just kept eating it, owning it and moving on to the next year. So as we sit here right now in mid August, if I was a Bears fan, I'd be so excited about this upcoming season and the future because you have all the pieces. You just need to go out there and see him have the Growing pains this upcoming season. This is not super bowl divisional win season. This is growing Pains. If you can get in as a seven or six seed, that's a great season. Such a hard division. So, yeah, really excited obviously about this Bears team, but I can't get there in over eight and a half. That's just too much in this division.
- [67:58]
Chad Millman
This is how I'm living my life right now in sort of existential dread on a variety of platforms. My younger son leaving for college. I. I'm breaking down every. I walked the dog this morning and I was envisioning drop off and realizing, oh my God, he's not going to be home for the first Bears game. And like my dog's taking a. I'm picking it up and I'm like just dropping tears on the grass. And on Saturday night I watched that first Bears drive and I thought to myself, what do we do after the first 15? Exactly what I thought. All right. Because he didn't. He obviously wasn't in for the second drive.
- [68:48]
Simon Hunter
No.
- [68:49]
Chad Millman
And so immediately I thought to myself, I think we'll be fine. And by the way, it's like I'm so all in. I'm like, I think we'll be fine for the first 15, but I don't know what we're going to look like after that. When teams start to settle in and get a sense of who Caleb Williams is. I don't know yet. So I'm psyched, but I don't know.
- [69:11]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I mean I really. That Monday night game, I really cannot wait. Just the jj.
- [69:16]
Chad Millman
It's going to be so good.
- [69:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Caleb Williams like this might be the start of a 1015 year matchup between these two quarterbacks. So I just, these are the type of things as a football geek I, I love to think about where it's just how exciting this is that not that this is going to determine either of these team seasons but holy shit. That Tuesday morning in Chicago if they win or lose that's that's what I live for. Like that type of stuff with sports media.
- [69:39]
Chad Millman
It's the best favorite bet from Simon. I think it's the Lions over ten and a half. Yeah, I was leaning packers one before I sort of started doing my notes and then I started falling in love with the lions and at plus 145 and then the conversation from you confirmed it. So I'm going with Lions plus 145 because I like getting plus money on this team to win the division. The favorites will oh, I just want.
- [70:02]
Simon Hunter
To throw in there. J.J. mcCarthy 80 to 1. J.J. mcCarthy long shot.
- [70:07]
Chad Millman
The favorites will return with our next episode on Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page. When we talk AFC north, download some Spotify Apple pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback as a gift. Until next time.
- [70:20]
Simon Hunter
Love you.
- [70:28]
Chad Millman
Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about.
- [70:34]
Seth Wickersham
Has a gambling problem, help is available 24.
- [70:38]
Chad Millman
7@1-800- gambler.
- [70:41]
Podcast Announcer
Oh, what you eating?
- [70:42]
Chad Millman
The new banana split cookie from AM pm.
- [70:44]
Seth Wickersham
All freshly baked with real butter with.
- [70:46]
Chad Millman
Banana, chocolate and strawberry flavors. That sounds amazing. Can I have a bite? I'm sorry but no. But you can't split the banana split. Not even a little. Not even a crumb.
- [70:56]
Podcast Announcer
What if.
- [70:56]
Chad Millman
No, please mine when it's too legit to split. That's cravinience.
- [71:02]
Seth Wickersham
Get a 3 pack for 99 cents.
- [71:04]
Simon Hunter
With our app AM PM too much good stuff plus tax where applicable.
- [71:07]
Seth Wickersham
Prices and participation may vary.
- [71:08]
Simon Hunter
Terms of conditions apply.
- [71:10]
AJ Jacobs
Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land? Jeopardy Truthers believe in?
- [71:27]
Seth Wickersham
I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.
- [71:30]
AJ Jacobs
That's right.
- [71:30]
Seth Wickersham
They gave you the answers and you still blew it.
- [71:33]
AJ Jacobs
The Puzzler listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [71:42]
Seth Wickersham
Tune in to all the Smoke podcast where Matt and Stack sit down with former first lady Michelle Obama.
- [71:48]
Podcast Announcer
Folks find it hard to hate up close. And when you get to know people and you're sitting in their kitchen tables and they're talking like we're talking, you know, you hear our story, how we grew up, how Barack grew up, and you get a chance for people to unpack and get beyond race.
- [72:03]
Seth Wickersham
All the Smoke featuring Michelle Obama. To hear this podcast and more, open your free iHeartRadio app, search all the Smoke and listen now.
- [72:11]
John Lithgow
Hello, I'm John Lithgow.
- [72:13]
Chad Millman
We choose to go to the moon.
- [72:14]
John Lithgow
I want to tell you about my new fiction podcast.
- [72:17]
Simon Hunter
It's One Small Step for Man about.
- [72:20]
John Lithgow
Buzz Aldrin, one of the true pioneers of space.
- [72:23]
Chad Millman
You're a great pilot, Buzz.
- [72:25]
John Lithgow
That's the story you think you know. This is the story you don't. Buzz, starring me, John Lithgow, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [72:41]
Podcast Announcer
This is an iheart pod.