Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd Episode: The Favorites - NFC South Division Preview
Release Date: August 1, 2025
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

Introduction

In this episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, hosted by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve deep into the intricacies of the NFC South Division, providing a comprehensive preview for the upcoming NFL season. The discussion centers around team performances, betting opportunities, player analyses, and strategic insights, offering listeners an engaging and informative journey through one of the most competitive divisions in football.

Overview of the NFC South Division

Chad Millman introduces the segment by highlighting the significance of the NFC South in the NFL landscape. He emphasizes the division's reputation for producing tightly contested games and unexpected outcomes, setting the stage for a detailed examination of each team.

Chad Millman [03:38]:
"Our division by division betting breakdowns have begun. We covered the AFC South on Tuesday. Today we move on to the equally important, equally respected, equally beloved also southeastern region of football in the NFL."

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Analysis

The Buccaneers are scrutinized extensively, focusing on quarterback Baker Mayfield's performance and the team's offensive and defensive dynamics.

Key Points:

• Quarterback Performance: Baker Mayfield is highlighted as a top-ten quarterback, with considerations of his recent offensive coordinator changes affecting his gameplay.

  Chad Millman [04:10]:
  "We do think there's betting opportunities to help me do all that."

• Coaching Changes: The departure of offensive coordinator Liam Cohen to Jacksonville is discussed, raising concerns about offensive consistency.

  Chad Millman [05:26]:
  "It's hard not to want to sell them. ... we're going to be about seeing when does it catch up to him?"

• Defensive Strengths and Weaknesses: While the Buccaneers boast a dominant defense against the run, their secondary remains a vulnerability.

  Chad Millman [05:26]:
  "Their secondary has been horrible. Like, they are a bad secondary."

• Betting Insights: Despite their strengths, the speakers express hesitancy in betting on the Buccaneers due to potential regressions and overinflated odds.

  Chad Millman [07:00]:
  "I really didn't take Baker serious. ... I have him right at 10 wins."

Notable Quote:

Chad Millman [06:00]:
"We're betting a team that they might have even worse defense than the Saints, which we're going to get into the Saints about being a train wreck."

Atlanta Falcons Analysis

The Falcons' prospects are examined, particularly focusing on quarterback Michael Penix and the team's offensive line.

Key Points:

• Quarterback Evaluation: Michael Penix is portrayed as a promising yet unproven quarterback, with debates on his ability to manage pressure and extend plays effectively.

  Simon Hunter [12:25]:
  "My feeling on Penix is basically I think we know what he is."

• Offensive Weapons: The Falcons possess talented receivers like Drake London, Bijan, and Kyle Pitts, whose utilization is contingent on Penix's performance.

  Simon Hunter [14:37]:
  "We have Drake London, Bijan, we have Kyle Pitts. We have all the weapons."

• Defensive Concerns: The team's defense is critiqued for its instability and lack of dominance, raising questions about their ability to support the offense consistently.

  Chad Millman [14:24]:
  "They lost their center, which is a big deal."

• Betting Strategy: Both hosts lean towards taking the over on the Falcons' win total and express cautious optimism about the team's potential.

  Simon Hunter [15:04]:
  "I have them at eight and a half. The win total, seven and a half. Obviously, a full game to the over."

Notable Quote:

Chad Millman [14:37]:
"We know they have Drake London, we know they have Bijan, we know they have Kyle Pitts."

Carolina Panthers Analysis

The Panthers receive significant attention, with discussions centered on quarterback Bryce Young, defensive upgrades, and their challenging schedule.

Key Points:

• Quarterback Development: Bryce Young's transformation from one of the league's worst performers to a middle-of-the-pack quarterback is highlighted, with a focus on his improved decision-making and scrambling abilities.

  Simon Hunter [25:00]:
  "His scramble rate jumped from 25% to 40%, 47%."

• Defense Overhaul: Concerns about the Panthers' defense are raised, emphasizing vulnerabilities despite offensive improvements.

  Chad Millman [28:39]:
  "We're betting a team that they might have even worse defense than the Saints."

• Scheduling Luck: The late bye week and strategic matchups against the Buccaneers twice in the final three weeks are noted as factors that could favor the Panthers' season outcome.

  Chad Millman [29:57]:
  "Facing the Buccaneers twice in the last three weeks, that's a big deal for this Panthers team."

• Betting Insights: Both hosts express strong confidence in the Panthers surpassing their win totals, supported by their schedule and quarterback improvements.

  Simon Hunter [31:23]:
  "I like the Panthers as a division long shot or at least over that six and a half win total because that's just blaring."

Notable Quotes:

Simon Hunter [25:00]:
"He was one of the worst quarterbacks, but any movement in his improvement made him look like a viable starter."

Chad Millman [28:39]:
"This defense that even the games they were in, they got totally thrown out because it's like you're asking Bryce Young to have to put up 35, 30, 38 points in a game."

New Orleans Saints Analysis

The Saints are critically examined, focusing on their quarterback situation, defensive struggles, and overall team performance.

Key Points:

• Quarterback Quandary: The Saints' lack of a stable quarterback is a major issue, with discussions around their potential picks and the impact of Arch Manning.

  Chad Millman [36:01]:
  "Archie Manning going to the Saints, revitalizing the team, bringing back joy to his hometown city."

• Defensive Weaknesses: The Saints' defense is labeled as one of the worst in the division, contributing to their low win totals and high betting odds.

  Simon Hunter [35:55]:
  "I think we're in sync here. It's one of my favorite bets. The under Saints, five and a half."

• Rebuilding Phase: The franchise is depicted as being in a significant rebuilding stage, with challenges in player performance and coaching strategies.

  Chad Millman [35:55]:
  "They have a lot of veterans on the team that, you know, they're playing out their contracts here."

• Betting Strategy: Both hosts advocate for betting against the Saints, focusing on their underperformance and inflated win totals.

  Simon Hunter [35:59]:
  "That's why I think we're going to have a great group of quarterbacks coming out next year and it's a good time to reset."

Notable Quotes:

Simon Hunter [35:55]:
"I think we're in sync here. It's one of my favorite bets. The under Saints, five and a half."

Chad Millman [36:01]:
"Archie Manning going to the Saints, revitalizing the team, bringing back joy to his hometown city."

Betting Insights and Predictions

Throughout the episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter offer their perspectives on betting opportunities within the NFC South, analyzing odds, team performances, and potential upsets.

Key Points:

• Public vs. Professional Betting: The hosts discuss the disparity between public betting trends and professional strategies, often recommending skepticism towards popular bets.

  Chad Millman [08:50]:
  "We really respected his offensive mind. The team did as well. ... unsigned."

• Win Totals and Odds: Detailed analysis of team win totals and respective betting odds provide listeners with informed predictions and strategic advice.

  Simon Hunter [39:22]:
  "So, why invest at short numbers when..."

• Favorite Bets: The hosts reveal their top betting choices, favoring the Panthers' over six and a half wins and the Saints' under five and a half wins, while remaining cautious about the Buccaneers.

  Chad Millman [44:16]:
  "My favorite bets would be Panthers over six and a half, Saints under five and a half, and then the Panthers division plus 400."

Notable Quotes:

Chad Millman [44:16]:
"My favorite bets would be Panthers over six and a half, Saints under five and a half, and then the Panthers division plus 400."

Simon Hunter [35:59]:
"I think we're all in the view of this is just a team much like the Giants that you know they don't mind to tank the season."

Conclusions

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter conclude the episode by reiterating their key betting strategies and expressing optimism for the Panthers' performance amidst a challenging schedule. They emphasize the importance of analyzing team dynamics beyond public perception and encourage listeners to consider professional insights when making betting decisions.

Chad Millman [45:26]:
"Let's go party. That was good."

Simon Hunter [45:24]:
"Throw a little shekels. Yeah. A couple of 10 to 140. Let's go party."

Notable Quotes Summary

• Chad Millman [06:00]:
  "We're betting a team that they might have even worse defense than the Saints, which we're going to get into the Saints about being a train wreck."

• Simon Hunter [25:00]:
  "His scramble rate jumped from 25% to 40%, 47%."

• Simon Hunter [35:55]:
  "I think we're in sync here. It's one of my favorite bets. The under Saints, five and a half."

Final Thoughts

This episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd offers a meticulous breakdown of the NFC South Division, blending statistical analysis with expert opinions to guide listeners through the complexities of NFL betting. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide valuable insights into team performances, player developments, and strategic betting opportunities, making it an essential listen for sports enthusiasts and bettors alike.

Note: This summary is based on the provided transcript and is intended to offer a comprehensive overview of the podcast episode's main discussions and insights.