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- [00:00]
iHeart Podcast Host
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:05]
Ad Read Host
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- [01:05]
Freddy Prinze Jr.
We're breaking down SummerSlam the biggest party of the summer on Wrestling With Freddy. From our bold picks to storyline breakdowns, we will discuss who walks out with gold, who shocks the night and which matches steal the show we call the winners, the upsets and the chaos to expect. Plus whatever swerves nobody saw coming. Listen to Wrestling with Freddy as part of the M Podcast Network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:32]
San Diego FC Host
Check out behind the Flow, a podcast documentary series following the launch of San Diego Football Club San Diego.
- [01:41]
Soccer Analyst
Coming to MLS is going to be a game changer because this region has been hungry for a men's professional soccer team.
- [01:47]
Football Analyst
We need to embrace this community.
- [01:51]
San Diego FC Host
Listen to San Diego FC behind the Flow on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [02:02]
iHeart Podcast Host
Get fired up y'.
- [02:03]
Chad Millman
All.
- [02:03]
iHeart Podcast Host
Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people, an incomparable soccer icon Megan Rapinoe to the show and we had a blast. Take a listen. Sue and I were like riding the lime bikes the other day and we're like wee people ride bikes because it's fun. We got more incredible guests like Megan in store, plus news of the day and more. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports Network.
- [02:47]
Simon Hunter
Welcome to the favorites the podcast Part of the Volume Podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Our division by division betting breakdowns have begun. We covered the AFC south on Tuesday. Today we move on to the equally important, equally respected, equally beloved also southeastern region of football in the NFL. The NFC south, home of teams and logos nobody outside of the region cares about. But we're going to talk about them because we do think there's betting opportunities to help me do all of that. Let me bring in my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:39]
Chad Millman
Hello, Chad. What's going on?
- [03:41]
Simon Hunter
Listen. You know, nothing gets me more psyched than the chance to talk about professional football in the southeastern United states states.
- [03:52]
San Diego FC Host
On April 24, 1974, Florida's Tampa Bay area was awarded the NFL's 27th franchise. The official team name was announced as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who set a standard that any expansion team would be proud to attain.
- [04:10]
Simon Hunter
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers do have a quarterback that we love, that we both think is top ten in, in Baker Mayfield. The Bucs division odds plus one oh two conference odds 13 to one Super Bowl 28 to one win total at nine and a half. Obviously the biggest factor here is that Liam Cohen, the offensive coordinator, has left to take over as the Jacks coach. This will be Baker's third offensive coordinator in three years. We do have Bakers at top 10 QB as I said. But do we worry? Simon? A lot of his success last year was predicated on him throwing more screen passes than ever to help him manage pressure, which has always been an issue for Baker. That meant his EPA expected points added on screens was significantly higher, the second highest the past four seasons behind just Patrick Mahomes also helped him decrease his sack rate. So the Bucks have won this division for a couple years running now. Are we selling the Bucks?
- [05:27]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's. It's hard not to want to sell them. Right. It's, it's the same thing where it was last year where it's like, okay, you know, that was a great year from Baker, but we expected regression and then he came out and had the best year of his career. And we're going to find out pretty quick, right, if it was him or Liam. Like the guy left has now gone to a different team and we expect big things in Jacksonville because of that. Right. We really respected his offensive mind. The team did as well. Like they offered him an insane amount of money. He's probably going to be the highest paid offensive coordinator in all football. And you know, that's that shows the kind of respect he has in this league where he's using leverage against his former employee while he's already on that jet to his new team. Meeting back with the Jaguars, the whole thing was really scandalous. And, you know, the Baker got dragged into it, right? They were trying to get Baker to be mad about him. Baker's like, I love that guy. Like, that was one of the best years I ever had. I loved working with him. And you saw them on the field. And the question for me is like this, when does it catch up to him? Like, because that was an insane season by Baker and that was without Godwin and Mike Evans for large portions of that season. And they've gone out and they've drafted a new rookie receiver that's, you know, got a ton of talent. So they're like, okay, we're already forward thinking because Mike Evans here is aging out, Godwin's aging out. We're already thinking forward. So now they. They are easily three, four deep at receiver. That's a big deal for this team that plans on throwing the ball a lot. And then we saw Bucky Irving come out of nowhere last year and really take off with her. So there isn't really questions offensively. Their real questions to me is going to be the defense, right? Because I don't think Baker's not the type of year he had last year, like, naturally. I think there's gonna be some regression there. It's. Is this defense good enough again and to keep doing what they've been doing, which is one of the best dominant defense against the run. And we know Vita Vay, but there's a lot of other pieces that defense that's really kept in check. But their secondary has been horrible. Like, they are a bad secondary. And lucky for them, this division, there just has not been a challenger. Right. It feels like, you know, I mean, I'm not saying that's. Matt Ryan was the greatest quarterback ever, but he dominated this division for a long time. And then Tom Brady came in, and after he left, Baker's kind of taking it over. And it's been kind of funny where, I mean, me and you finally came around. We both put him in our top 10, but, I mean, we really didn't take Baker serious. It took a while for us to get there. So I get that. I get the number, but, like, do you want to bet +102 on this team? I really don't. And I'm having a tough time taking their wind toll just because, again, it's Another team that it's not a brutal start to the year, but it's not an easy one either. Like, they have a first place schedule, they have some tough games, but this is to me the best team. They are the best team in their division. I'm just not crazy about the odds. I wish they were a little better just because we know we're about to dive into it. Like people are really loving this Atlanta team. So I thought these odds would be closer. But you know, that's, that's the, that's the respect Baker's getting this team. So it's earned. But to me, our job's value based. I'm just not going to be touching them at nine and a half. I have them right at 10 wins. Another team that's like, I'm good. Am I going to force the over here? Because I do think they'll get to 10 and 7, 9 and 8. They just feel like that type of team. They have that much talent. It's just, it's just hard to get there where you like. We're about to talk about these other teams. Division. There's better value to me, but I get the respect. They're getting a plus one. Oh two.
- [08:50]
Simon Hunter
By the way, Mecca Abuca was the first round pick. The receiver from Ohio State who they've added. And look, they've got challenges all across the board. Like you said, that secondary is pretty bad. I mean, the only thing they have going for them is that there isn't a dominating defense in this division. So anytime they're playing anyone in the division, you have the potential because you have Baker, because you have Mike Evans, because, because you have Bucky Irving. You've got the potential to put points on the board and steal wins in the division. As much as we sort of don't like any of these teams, the games are going to be lights out. Think about some of these games. In the NFC south last year, the Panthers made so many games so exciting. The Saints earlier in the year made games exciting. The Falcons made games exciting. The Bucks made games exciting because they're not quite good enough to put teams away. None of them are. And so nine and a half wins to me just feels like too many. You're going to be sweating that and there's no reason to grasp it. It feels like it's overinflated because Baker had the year that he had because the team is clearly the, the consensus favorite in this division. Zero value. You're, you're priced out of the market. There's just no Upside in betting this team in any of these things right now you're smiling at me.
- [10:18]
Chad Millman
Yeah, just. And like you're breaking down here. But it's just very telling where we just did the AFC south. Now we're doing AFC South. No team in either divisions are with 10 wins and both, both these divisions are the lowest win totals of the season because they're such bad teams. But like you talked about, these are awful teams. When they play each other in their own division, the games are always wonky and tight and that's really true for the NFC South. So I, I know it's very. You look at that nine and a half, you're like in their own division. Like they should steamroll the Saints, right? We at best case scenario maybe they split with the Panthers and you know, Atlanta. So it's like you look at them, you're just saying, well those are easy wins. How do they not get to the other four and a half, five wins? I get why it's so, so enticing, but it's just, it's hard year to year to know these type of wins are going to be in the division. Right. It's just so fluky up and it's a good number. Once again, another really sharp number. By the book. Like I think they really hung a good number here because I think a general public are going to go in and bet this one and professionals will take the under.
- [11:18]
Simon Hunter
Oh, I 100% believe the public is going to bet this over. Yeah, they're going to play the over. They're going to hit the plus 102 because by the way, they're going to see a plus number and think what I can get the Bucks for a plus number to win their division when they've been dominating that division for so many years and nobody else really improved. Of course the public is going to bet the Bucs in both scenarios. But we're not. No, Simon, we're not going to do it. Will we bet the Atlanta Falcons?
- [11:55]
San Diego FC Host
The Atlanta Falcons were typified by players who consistently made the big play.
- [12:01]
Simon Hunter
What you really know about the dirty style. What you really know about the dirty side. Falcons plus 230 to win the division, 35 to one to win the conference, 70 to one to win the Super Bowl. The win total at seven and a half.
- [12:20]
Chad Millman
I mean, are you gonna. You can go first. I know you have, you have some love here. A little bit of love for Michael Penix. I want to hear you break it down.
- [12:25]
Simon Hunter
I do, I do. And it's, it's forcing me to want to take the over on this team. My feeling on Penix is basically I think we know what he is right? And look, I loved Penix. I've been following him long before he was in the NFL. Long before he was at Washington. He was the quarterback at Indiana. He was great at Indiana. You think back to the COVID years when Indiana had a little bit of a run it was because of Michael Penix before he was injured. That's what got them into sort of contention in the Big ten for that one season. And he's not a guy who's going to go off script. He's not a guy who's going to make plays for you when things break down. But he is a guy who can perform very well, maybe even elite when he's on schedule and has good protection for a QB with a minimum of 100 drop backs. Last year only Lamar Jackson had a better EPA expected points added from a clean pocket than Michael Penix. Fantastic. And the Falcons will know that. So will every other team right now. Can the Falcons game plan to that? We know they have Drake London, we know they have Bijan, we know they have Kyle Pitts. We know they have talent that might be used differently with someone like Michael Penix than it would have been with Kirk Cousins or predecessors Desmond Ritter. But how much of that can they really mandate control when everybody in the league knows that? Because if the production does break down he cannot create on his own and the whole thing falls apart. And while the Falcons have had elite run blocking for several years, their pass blocking just is mediocre to straight bad. It's all on Pennix and I'm going.
- [14:25]
Chad Millman
To believe and we'll see because they did lose arguably their best offensive piece to the Bears. They lost their center so you know that's a big deal.
- [14:37]
Simon Hunter
And the one thing I'll say about that he was injured a lot last year. And so like I was thinking about this as I was trying to calculate the guys backup center. What's that?
- [14:48]
Chad Millman
They were bad last year.
- [14:49]
Simon Hunter
Right. But what my point is he was injured a lot last year. So whatever Penix was doing last year to show progress and success in a clean pocket, he's doing with probably the same people that he'll be doing it with this year because the other guy, the backup was playing so much.
- [15:05]
Chad Millman
And I was gonna say it's just hard to take a lot away from Pennx where he came in. I think he had what 800 yards, three touchdowns and three picks. Like it's really there's not, there was nothing really there. When you go back and watch a tape, yes, he did make nice days. But if you said if you get him off his spot, he was bad, he was really bad when she took him off his spot. And his feet, you know, it's, it's, it's a knock on him, right? His, his footwork is not the best when you get him off because he could throws off balance which you don't want him to do because he doesn't have the arm power like that. So you know, this is a team that I don't know what they're going to be because their defense was so insanely lucky last season. In many ways where I always go back to the coaching. Like coaching has a lot to do with luck and defense. Right? We, I mean the Vikings are the great example ever of that with Flores, like you can take a little bit of talent because we always talk the difference between the best linebacker, middle linebacker in football and the fifth best middle linebacker in football. Sure it's pretty big. But the best fifth linebacker in football and the 25th, it's very small. And these coaches, they are the ones that make such a big difference on these middle, middle level guys. So with the Falcons, their defense to me is bad and I do have major, major questions about their offensive line. But like you said we, when we talk about these teams, why, I get why you're taking this jump in on this Falcons team at Penicon quarterback is the year two bump. Like the guy who they don't have much tape on but you see the good and if he can just grow on that and get better like we just said, if he can find better move in the pocket, if he gets better at throwing off balance like I heard he's been doing the same type of training that Mahomes has been doing, which is like he throws off one leg and does like all these training, different exercise, throwing off balance and working on his lower body. That to me is gonna be a big step for Pennock. So for a team that has a ton of upside with the unknown, I'm. I get why you're doing it because like Penix comes in. If he is just able to be a competent quarterback, something the Falcons have not had since Matt Ryan, he could change that offense because they have all the weapons like Drake London stud like Robinson stud and Kyle Pitts. We don't know he's never had a quarterback. So I'm with you. I like, I like the pieces there. I get why you're going with it. But there's another team this division I love more. So that's why I'm just not all in with you. I get where you're coming from. I did bet their win total. I have them at eight and a half. The win total, seven and a half. Obviously a full game to the over. I'll take that over on the win just because of this division. Like the way this division shakes out, it just feels like I'm, I'm kind of see what Chad's seen here is like them and the Bucs, we could both see them being 9 and 8, 10 and 7 fighting like they were last year and last year that Atlanta did it without a quarterback. So yeah, major upgrade to them if Pennix can take that next step.
- [17:51]
Simon Hunter
Dude, you have it at eight and a half. The total's at seven and a half. Of the teams we've talked about so far between the AFC south and AFC south, that's the biggest discrepancy you haven't had?
- [18:02]
Chad Millman
No. Tennessee was seven, so they were, they're a game and a half. But that's fair. You know, I know it's the Pennix thing. I've been watching tons of Pennocks. The Tennessee was five and a half. I had him at seven wins.
- [18:11]
Simon Hunter
Okay.
- [18:12]
Chad Millman
But yeah, like I just, I'm with you. I've been watching a ton of Pennock because to me I loved him in college so much. Like you know Adun is a great receiver. He, he, he obviously helped the quarterback and what Pennix did but it was also Penix like he put the, some of his passes, his touch passes are incredible. So I, I'm not disagreeing with the talents there and obviously my motto believes in this team. I'm just so hesitant of it because it's like I watch him on field and I see so many bad habits and then when I dive into how lucky their defense was and how it overperformed so much last year, it's hard to get there. It's like because last year again they just had random wins. They stole like they beat the Eagles in week two on a two minute drive by Kirk Cousins. You can't predict those things. No. So it's like those, those ones are tough. When you're diving into their games last year and how they, they won some and then you know how they fell off a cliff once. Kirk kind of couldn't get it right. Right. Once defenses realized he can't move in the pocket, it was over for Atlanta. So is that going to be the same problem here Chad with Penix like that's the fear is if they have another quarterback that can't move well in the pocket every game he's just going to be facing five rushers. It's just, it's what it's going to be.
- [19:22]
Simon Hunter
So with an offensive line that is not great at pass blocking.
- [19:26]
Chad Millman
So that's the fear.
- [19:27]
Simon Hunter
Totally get it. Totally fair. Totally get it. You mentioned there's another team. I feel a lot more strongly about bets related to our next two teams than I do about the Falcons and the box.
- [19:42]
Ad Read Host
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- [20:43]
Chad Millman
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- [20:57]
Freddy Prinze Jr.
It's the biggest party of the summer. WWE SummerSlam is here and wrestling with Freddie is all over it. We're talking wild matches, big surprises and our boldest predictions yet. From celebrity showdowns to the chaos inside a steel cage, we're breaking down every match and calling who we think walks out on top. This card is loaded from Cody Rhodes, John Cena, Rhea Ripley and Tiffy, just to name a few, this lineup is ready to tear down the house. We'll give you our unfiltered takes, honest debates and you already know a ton of laughs along the way. We're covering the upsets, the wild returns and the championship moments nobody expects. We'll get into the matches that steal the show, the storylines that explode, and those oh my God, did that just happen? Moments that make SummerSlam legendary. Don't miss it. Listen to Wrestling with Freddy as part of the My Kultura Podcast network. Find us on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [21:50]
San Diego FC Host
Check out behind the Flow, a podcast documentary series following the launch of San Diego Football Club. We go behind the scenes and explore the stories of those involved.
- [22:03]
Soccer Analyst
San Diego coming to MLS is going to be a game changer because this region has been hungry for a men's professional soccer team.
- [22:10]
Football Analyst
We need veteran players and we need young players. Like you're building a team from scratch and so the succession plan of long term success needs to be defined. We need to embrace this community.
- [22:21]
Soccer Analyst
When I was 13, my uncle took me to a college qualifier and we watched Paraguay against Chile. Pouring rain. Just watching the fans jumping up and down, I think that was definitely a watershed moment for me. Not only was that going to be my game, but it was going to be my life.
- [22:38]
San Diego FC Host
Listen to San Diego FC behind the flow now on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.
- [22:50]
Simon Hunter
So let's dig in on the Carolina Panthers, the loves of our lives plus 390 to win the division, 50 to 1 to win the conference, 120 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Win total six and a half. In the final nine games of the year, the Carolina Panthers went 72 against the spread, including four outright wins. Reminder, we were so bullish on the Panthers. We talked about the Panthers so much in the preseason and then they went out and totally shit the bed and made us look terrible for the first eight weeks of the season. What happened? How did they turn it around? Bryce Young had been injured, comes back, really kind of has nothing to lose at this point because in his first 20 or so games he's been one of the worst first round quarterbacks, top overall quarterbacks who's ever been drafted. He went from being so bad amongst the worst in the NFL to middle of the pack that like any movement in his improvement made him look like a viable starter. But to me the key and we talked a lot about this last year. You could see it on the field, his decision making, like he started scrambling to extend plays. He's already incredibly accurate. His scramble rate jumped from 25% to 40%, 47%. And this wasn't because his offensive line is terrible. It's actually top 10, top 15 offensive line. It was him moving around in the pocket to make plays and then using his accuracy on the run. He'd keep his eyes downfield. He wasn't looking at rushers, and he was making plays that helped them stay in the game. Third down completions, fourth down completions. He just got better. Can we see that? Can we see that from Bryce Young this year?
- [25:01]
Chad Millman
Yeah. It's like you just broke it down. It was incredible. He was playing himself out of the league. It was over. Right. And what did Andy Dalton do? Did he cut his hand or was he in a car accident? Something happened with Andy Dalton.
- [25:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, like something fluky. It wasn't like.
- [25:17]
Chad Millman
And that's why he got his job back.
- [25:18]
Simon Hunter
Right. It wasn't like Andy Dalton was ever going to relinquish this job.
- [25:23]
Chad Millman
No.
- [25:24]
Simon Hunter
Bryce Young was done.
- [25:25]
Chad Millman
It was over. And, you know, we talk all the time how football. It's so heavily mental. That's why all these guys got sports therapists. Right. They're constantly working on their brain and their mind. And it's really become a forefront in the last 10 years of how mental, how important the mental aspect of the football game is. And you. The best example is Bryce Young. Like, he was miserable. Like, apparently it was just dead inside. I mean, you would be, too. His first game, I believe he threw like two picks. It was a train wreck to start the season. It just kept getting worse and worse every week. And we got caught. Like Chad is talking about, like, this is a classic case of believing too much into a model and not what you're seeing in front of you. And I kept saying, but my model's telling me this is a bad number. This team is way better than they're performing. Did not make sense. And then sure enough, once he came back, like you said, they went seven and two. That's when it made sense, where it's like, oh, this is what my motto is, seeing when he puts it together and plays within the offense, he's good. Like, when he's accurate. They do have. They did have pieces that are around him, and now they've gone out and drafted a wide receiver, which to me was the biggest deal. Because, you know, as much as we love Bryce Young, his number one receiver was Adam. Feeling like. Feeling he was supposed to those. These are his sunset years. He's down there getting ready for retirement. He's not supposed to be the number one receiver, the Panthers, and he was his most trusted receiver. Bryce Young, anytime on a big third down, that's who he trusted because he knew he would run the. He would run the right route and he would. Even if the window is crazy small, he Would give him a window. He would always have that window. The fact that they went out and got a receiver with a top 10 pick, it's a huge deal. And, you know, the, the offense, you know, to me, it's not my question when I'm betting this team, I have this team at eight wins, so six and a half. Chad knows I like that number a lot. Divisional odds, you know, wish it was plus 450 like it was earlier and down to plus 400. 390 at some books. Still love it, still think it's good value, but it's tough that it's been bent down because the pros have the same view as us. It's like if he did take that next step and they've spent money on some, on some of these pieces, offensive line and defense, this should be a good team. But that's, that's what the unknown is here, is this defense, like, they were so criminally bad last year. This defense that even the games they were in, they got totally thrown out because it's like you're asking Bryce Young to have to put up 35, 30, you know, 38 points in a game. It's just like they don't have the offensive weapons to do that. So that, to me, is our big fear here, Chaz. We're betting a team that they might have even worse defense than the Saints, which we're going to get into the Saints about being a train wreck. But this, that's a true statement. The Panthers might have the worst defense in this division, so that, to me, is what I'm really looking forward to in camp, seeing what I'm going to see from their defense. You know, the, it's not so much your preseason games. Now I've learned my lesson that it really is about the team practices when they, when they practice with other teams. That film has been really valuable when they, when they have practice against other teams and you see what type of defensive sets they're trying to run. So I, I, it's definitely a team. Panthers. I'm going to dive more into their defense during this preseason, but right now, as we stand here, I'm just so infatuated with their offense. I just trust it so much that, yeah, I have to have to take the divisional odds.
- [28:39]
Simon Hunter
So, look, the, the receiver they drafted in the first round was that kid McMillan from Arizona. And, you know, I, a lot of people, I don't know enough about him to weigh in and whether or not he's going to be impactful, added value, whatever. It's going to be certainly if Adam Thielen was his top target, Bryce Young's, you need to find an improvement there. Agree with you. This defense was just shredded, right? And even when they started to get guys back from injury, they never got very good. And it's what made it. It's what made every Carolina Panthers bet so heart pounding. The fact that they did win for those last nine games that they also covered the spread in is encouraging. But a lot of that was on Bryce Young. They have the seventh easiest strength of schedule per Vegas win totals. I'm so glad to hear me hear you say that you like the Panthers as a division long shot or at least over that six and a half win total because like that's just blaring. The, the win total to me is the real play for this team because that is a blaring discrepancy in the market. But then again, you know, we could be falling into a trap.
- [29:58]
Chad Millman
We could. But I. The thing I love most about their schedules, it's. It is brutal how late their buys. Their bye week I believe is not until week 14 or 15. Like something crazy late like that. When you look at their schedule, the way it ends is they end New Orleans, Tampa and then Tampa again when the last game of the season. I think Seattle's thrown in the middle there somewhere. So they get to face Tampa twice in the final three weeks. That's a big deal when we're betting win totals, right? Because Tampa, if they do win this division somehow like they did last year and they're, they had a game out and they don't need it, that's a huge throwaway for us the end of the season and even better if we're in this spot for Carolina Steeles division, they're facing the division leader, most likely two, two out of the last three weeks. That's, that's how you steal the season, right? That's how you make it happen. So to me when I have a young team like they are inexperienced, I want that type of thing. I don't want them facing the Bucs early in the year. I want them facing the end of the year where you could coach these guys up and have them in them a rhythm where the, you know, we saw it last year. This Panthers team got better as a season went along. That's how you know you have a good coaching staff. So that, that was something that jumped out to me last year that I knew going to this year I was going to keep drinking the Kool Aid. Like the way they Finished, What'd you say? Seven and two against the spread.
- [31:08]
Simon Hunter
Right away it wins.
- [31:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah, like really impressive stuff. So, you know, we, we, we might get a little lucky here with the way the schedule makers did it where that, that final three weeks. Facing the Bucks twice could be a game changer for this team.
- [31:23]
Simon Hunter
Well, look, I think they're opening game against the Jags and so we're going to learn a lot even in that opening week. How close can we get to that six and a half win total? It's going to be a tough play for us because we love betting on the Jags and we love betting on the Panthers. So what are we gonna do? Matt Mitchell, when we post this, cue the conspiracy music because I have one right here. Simon, you just said something really interesting to me. The end of the season, they get the Bucks two of the last three weeks. The NFL has made a really concerted effort the past several years to backload the division matchups. So there is something exciting that happens at the end of the season where division races could be in play, right? To me, this is the NFL saying we think the Panthers are really the team that could have the best shot at knocking off the Bucs. By the way they're scheduling. This script is written, my friend.
- [32:48]
Chad Millman
I wish it was. So I don't know if the Panthers are on the schedule makers radar yet, right? They probably do that at the top 14, top 16 teams and then May they'll probably throw in like two major markets like Chicago and some other major market. That's who, that's who the schedule. They dictate these, these, these NFC south foes. They just throw them in a blender. They make them, their schedule match the, the real team. So I, I view this as luck. Like they got really lucky to me, Chad, where that's, that's the exact scenario they, they needed, right? Facing them three twice in the last three weeks, that's a huge deal to me for this Panthers team. Just because if they would face them, like we said, if they started the season opening at the Bucs, okay, you're already own one against the division, against the top dog in the division. That'd be a guaranteed loss, right? Them going down face Baker in Tampa week one. So to me they caught a nice break. That said they're going down to Florida, but they're going to Jacksonville. Like that's a much, much nicer start to the season than heading down to Tampa. So yeah, like you said, there's a little conspiracy. I agree with you a little bit. I Think they did do the Panthers some favors in some ways, but that, that to me is insane. The luck of the I will not.
- [33:59]
Simon Hunter
Stand for Carolina Panther and NFC south disrespect. Who talks that way about one of the eight divisions in the NFL? They all deserve our equal respect. They are all worthy of being challenging division races at the end, at the end that capture our attention. These are teams in the National Football League. They all matter. Simon, who says stuff like that?
- [34:29]
Chad Millman
This guy.
- [34:30]
Simon Hunter
Well, one of the teams that maybe shouldn't be in the NFL is the New Orleans Saints. What do you think about the Saints? They are 14 to 1 to win the division, 150 to 1 to win the conference, 400 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Longest odds of any team in the NFL to win the Super Bowl. Longer than the Cleveland Browns. Germaine. Because the win total for the Saints is five and a half. And this is what's interesting to me. Last year The Pats were 300 to one and had a season win total of four and a half. The Panthers were 250 to one and had a season win Total of five and a half. Even the Browns at four and a half wins are 300 to one. When you think about that, when you hear that as a better, what is that signaling to you? Because it is signaling something to me.
- [35:41]
Chad Millman
I mean, it's simple. Not that the Sportsbook are begging anybody come in and put a dollar on this team if willing to in a positive way. So that, that to me is the signal there. That's just all negative money right now in the Saints, nothing positive.
- [35:56]
Simon Hunter
To me the signal is bet the under five and a half.
- [36:00]
Chad Millman
Yeah, right.
- [36:02]
Simon Hunter
That's ultimately what it's saying. Like they're desperate for the money at 400 to 1. But why would they put their number at five and a half? It may. That's what doesn't make sense to me. It feels like they've inflated this number and I can't. I can't figure out why.
- [36:18]
Chad Millman
Really weird. I agree with you. This to me feels like a number though. If this kid Shuck comes out and he's just dog in this preseason, this will go to four and a half. Like they will have to move it if he's just that terrible. You know, this football is a weird sport, right? Where it's like this. This is the type of team, they have enough veterans across the board that if he comes in, he's just comparable at the correct position. They could steal some games, right with Kamar, especially in the backfield there is a path there but I've gone and watched this kid's film and he is so raw and bad and injury prone and then you look at the guys behind him, it feels like a full on reset without them saying it's a full on reset. And you don't get that much on football right but you have to when you're a team that spent your money in the worst way on bad players on long contracts and it's basically all these backloaded years from the Drew Brees era catching up to them, right. It's, it's just been the really brutal in the books the money they've, they've allocated these different players. So yeah this was a game. I mean this was the line. I right away when I saw it open up I jumped on the under and I, I'm. I'm like you. I was just like am I the fish here? Is this, is this too easy? Because it's. I didn't get the five and a half hanging that number either. I just, I didn't know what the books models giving them back to even think they could get the six wins this season because that's hard like when you don't have anything at the quarterback position and anything behind it that is really hard to steal games. Like if you, if you. They had Joe Flacco there I might have hesitation honestly. I know it sounds stupid but if they had a comparable veteran quarterback just because they have so many good veterans on the team it would give me Paul Chad. I think you, I and the public and most professional betters are all. The view of this is just a team much like the Giants that you know they don't mind to tank the season because in their mind there's a, there's a great group of quarterbacks coming out next year and it's a good time to reset. If you're an organization like the Saints in a division that you know all these teams say what you want, they have their quarterbacks for the most part right. The team Bryce Young, it's his team. We for now you know the Bucks obviously have their quarterback and we think Michael Pennix will be the Atlantis quarterback. They, they don't have any identity right now the Saints so I think that's why I mean you're both so confident this one and there's always going to be the scenario of the Vikings like last year, right. There's always that randomness that if a quarterback can come in and just shock a team and breathe life into it. Nothing I've Seen from this kid. Chuck has done that. Chad. Like, even the stuff I'm reading about, it's just growing pain after growing pain after pick the linebacker after pick to the cornerback in practice. It's just a steep, steep learning curve for someone like him who hasn't had a lot of reps in college because of injuries and other factors to. You are now in the NFL playing at the highest level, and you're supposed to be the leader of this team. I think it's just a lot to ask of a kid like this. So, yeah, I think we're in sync here. It's one of my favorite bets. The under Saints, five and a half.
- [39:23]
Simon Hunter
It's Tyler Shock, spelled S O U S H O u G H but pronounced Shock, as in, oh, this guy's our quarterback. Yeah. And I'll throw a little. Little. Another little conspiracy at you. You ready?
- [39:40]
Chad Millman
I love it.
- [39:41]
Simon Hunter
Okay. Ruling Saints clearly not. Not being aggressive to get quarterbacks to get quality competition. Like you said, so many salary cap issues.
- [39:58]
Chad Millman
Here we go.
- [40:01]
Simon Hunter
I don't know what's. I don't know. I don't know what the coward take.
- [40:04]
Chad Millman
Is about the Archie Manning.
- [40:06]
Simon Hunter
Oh, my God. That's what I was going to say.
- [40:08]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [40:09]
Simon Hunter
Did he say that already?
- [40:10]
Chad Millman
I'm almost positive I saw one of his clips on my YouTube pop up from the volume.
- [40:14]
Simon Hunter
Oh, my God. I thought I was, like. I thought I was so far ahead of it.
- [40:20]
Chad Millman
No, I'm. I'm with it. I'm with you guys, though. Like, it's. I've. The expectations. Archie, man, Are insane. Yeah. But he might not even come out this year. Like, he's right. That's what someone just said. He might have come out. I don't. I don't know if he'll come out this year. But if he lights it up. Why would he not come out?
- [40:37]
Simon Hunter
Like, why he lights it up? Yeah, he's got. And he's guaranteed, you know, as much as anything's a guarantee. And to be the number one overall.
- [40:45]
Chad Millman
Pick and go to the Saints, and.
- [40:46]
Simon Hunter
The Saints have the number one overall pick.
- [40:51]
Chad Millman
I would love for his dad to be like, no, you're going back to college. You ain't going New Orleans.
- [40:56]
Simon Hunter
That's why we love sports, because there is symmetry and poetry and romance. And we can all get behind these stories because that is when we are at our happiest. Who doesn't want a great family story about Arch Manning going to the Saints, revitalizing the team, bringing back joy to his hometown city, doing what his grandfather Couldn't do as the number one overall pick of the same exact team. That is poetry. That's fucking Dylan Thomas shit right there.
- [41:40]
Chad Millman
Also, I love the thought of. We were, I think two weeks into the season last year, the Saints were 2, 0 and there were people coming on different TV shows, different airwaves saying, bet the Saints to win the nfc. Bet them to win the division. This is a different team. They have all the pieces. So think how far they've come from that 2, 0 start to where we're at right now. Arguably the worst team in football. It just. NFL comes at you so fast, that can change so much. It's just I feel for this franchise. Obviously, you know, Drew Brees left, Sean Payton left and left. You holding the bag, right? With all these guys, you need to just blow it all up and reset. You have a lot of veterans on the team that, you know they're playing out their contracts here. At the end, it's, it's all coming to an end. This is going to be a two, three, four year rebuild. Like they have so much work to do. So that's the weird thing about them. That's why the books hung this at five and a half. Because they do have enough veteran talent that if this kid Shook comes in, he's good. This could hit to me. Like me and Chad just talk about, I think the books are way off the mark here. I just. Everything I've seen from this kid, he is not the answer to their problems right here. He's just naturally, you see it right away with some of these guys coming in like they can read the field or they just have the God given ability. He has neither right now. So just, it just feels like dark days ahead. And I would tell you to grab the five and a half now because I could see this going to four and a half after a couple of preseason games.
- [43:07]
Simon Hunter
This has Chris Wanke vibes written all over it.
- [43:10]
Chad Millman
Agree.
- [43:11]
Simon Hunter
Do you remember Chris Wanke? Were you old enough for Chris Wanke?
- [43:14]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Was he Florida?
- [43:16]
Simon Hunter
Chris Wanke was Florida State, had played baseball, got drafted as a very old dude, went to the Panthers, they put the ball in his hands and immediately with George Seaford, I think went 1 in 15.
- [43:31]
Chad Millman
That's brutal.
- [43:33]
Simon Hunter
And you know, you feel bad for these guys, right? He's 25. Everyone, like any other time, like 25, always too old. But they're playing that off as maturity. And it's a, it's a hard spot to step into with a not very good team with a new coach who probably knows, hey, we're looking to play for next season, so do the best you can this year. We're going to give it to you. It could be a very, very tough road. Favorite bets, I feel like you and I are, are pretty aligned. I made a list of my three favorite and I think they correspond directly with yours. I just don't know if they're in the same order. So you go first.
- [44:16]
Chad Millman
Yeah. My favorite bets would be Panthers over six and a half, Saints under five and a half, and then the Panthers division plus 400. I just, to me, that's the best value. Where, you know, we'll talk right before the season. I'll give it a couple parlays. I'll probably throw the Bucs into one. But as we stand right now, I don't have a single dollar invest in that Bucks team in their win total super bowl odds, any of it. I'm just, I, I don't know. I'm. I hate that I'm so skeptical of this team, but I just can't help it. There's just so many questions right now, what they're going to be with all the turnover at the offensive coordinator position.
- [44:50]
Simon Hunter
I had Saints under five and a half, Panthers over six and a half, and then I had Falcons plus 230. I just couldn't get there on the Panthers to win the division. I know it's the better value. It's a little bit like a Titans play. Right. Like, why invest at short numbers when.
- [45:10]
Chad Millman
Even after my whole Bucks playing the Bucs twice in the last three weeks.
- [45:13]
Simon Hunter
You know, and now I think I'm rethinking it.
- [45:16]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [45:16]
Simon Hunter
So fuck it. I'm with you, my man. Give me the Panthers on it.
- [45:22]
Chad Millman
Throw a little. Little guy on it.
- [45:23]
Simon Hunter
A little shekels.
- [45:24]
Chad Millman
Yeah. A couple of 10 to 140. Let's go party.
- [45:27]
Simon Hunter
Let's go. All right. That was good. That was good. We're down. We've done. We've done the Southeastern teams, we've done the AFC south, we've now done the NFC South. The favorites will return with our next episode Tuesday on The Action Network YouTube page. Also subscribe at Real Chad Millman. We're going to cover our next NFL division preview downloads from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [46:05]
Ad Read Host
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Freddy Prinze Jr.
We're breaking down SummerSlam, the biggest party of the summer on Wrestling With Freddy. From our bold picks to storyline breakdowns, we will discuss who walks out with gold, who shocks the night and which matches steal the show we call the winners, the upsets and the chaos to expect. Plus whatever swerves nobody saw coming. Listen to Wrestling With Freddy as part of the Michael Tura Podcast Network, available on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
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San Diego FC Host
Check out behind the Flow, a podcast documentary series following the launch of San Diego Football Club.
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Soccer Analyst
San Diego Coming to MLS is going to be a game changer because this region has been hungry for a men's professional soccer.
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Football Analyst
We need to embrace this community.
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San Diego FC Host
Listen to San Diego FC behind the Flow on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
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iHeart Podcast Host
Get fired up y'.
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Chad Millman
All.
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iHeart Podcast Host
Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people, an incomparable soccer icon Megan Rapinoe to the show and we had a blast. Take a listen. Sue and I were like riding the lime bikes the other day and we're like wee people ride bikes because it's fun. We got more incredible guests like Megan in store, plus news of the day and more. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by Novartis, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports Network.
- [47:49]
Football Analyst
I'm Jake Hofer and this is Back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access?
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Chad Millman
Should you? That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.
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Football Analyst
Listen to back 40 on I Heart Rate Radio app, Apple Podcast or wherever you get your podcast.
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iHeart Podcast Host
This is an iHeart podcast.