Simon Hunter (2:21)

Welcome to the Favorites the podcast part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today, our annual division by division, NFL preview episodes march on as we go through every team across the AFC and the NFC on the path to NFL Week 1. As always, I can't walk on this journey alone. Let me bring in my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

Chad Millman (2:54)

Chad. You like this? I am 24 hours away from going to probably my last bachelor party of my lifetime.

Simon Hunter (3:04)

Two things. One, probably not your last. It is two Two, Give me the details.

Chad Millman (3:11)

Well, it's probably the last because I only have, like, true. I probably only have truly five to six real friends left. You know, when you hit your 30s, you probably didn't go through this because you're from a different era. But I don't know, in your 30s, you drop off just because everyone has kids, wives and kids. So this is my last, like, true childhood friend. I've known since he was born. He's getting married. We're going down to Dewey beach in Delaware, and you'll like this. His party theme is Fred Durst from Limb Bizkit. So I'll be wearing the. The jean shorts, the white T shirt with the backwards red hat, which is just. I don't know if you've seen these ears. They are not meant to be worn underneath the hat. So it's probably the first hat I've worn since Little League baseball 30 years ago. So, yeah, looking, looking forward to Dewey beach for the weekend with the boys. But he's done well. Like, I just joked, I have six people. Like, and again, the person parties. Chad's probably in that 6 of, like, people I consider good friends. He's got like 30 guys coming to these two beach houses down that Dewey Beach. That's how many good, close friends he has. So it's going to be pretty wild.

Simon Hunter (4:13)

A, I love that for him. B, I didn't realize that guys were doing bachelor party themes where everyone had to dress up. I thought that something only that the ladies did. So please send pictures of your Fred Durst inspired.

Chad Millman (4:33)

Have you ever heard of World of T Shirts or no World of T Shirts?

Simon Hunter (4:37)

No.

Chad Millman (4:37)

So he's this. He's like this. You're a TikTok guy. I'm not. This is like a TikTok guy. And I did another bachelor party last year, and we all dressed up as this World of T Shirts guy. And basically his whole thing is telling people he's richer than them and how. And asking them how they got in here. Like, he has this weird voice. So there was 20 of us all dressed as him, and it was. We got thrown at about seven different bars. People could not stand us being this world of T shirts guys. So I'm excited to be Fred Durst of Limb Bizkit for the weekend. It's gonna be good.

Simon Hunter (5:07)

Let me tell you something. Let me tell you something. Number one, the only person who should dress up at the bachelor party in a costume is the bachelor. For example, on my bachelor party, we were in Vegas and we were all getting Ready to go out for dinner. And one of my guys said to me, dude, great. You look great tonight. Fantastic. I'm like, thanks, man. He goes, this is what you're wearing. I told you. This story breaks out the polyester Elvis jumpsuit with the flared bottoms and an Elvis wig and gold glasses. And that is what I wore the entire night out in Vegas. And it was the greatest night of my entire life. Because everywhere you go, even if you're dressed as Elvis and you're a very bad impersonator, you are treated like the King. No lines, no covers, free everything. Everyone wants to take their picture with you. Everyone is happy to see you. It is freaking glorious. Number one. Number two, I once one of the guys who organized this to get him back, we went to New Orleans, got him pretty wasted during the day. At about 6 o', clock, I said to him, guy, we got to get going. And I handed him a King of Mardi Gras outfit. And I had hired a brass band from Tulane University music students. We went down to Bourbon street, which was, you know, where our hotel was, and at 6 o' clock on a Saturday night, he had to march down Bourbon street as the King of Mardi Gras in the King of Mardi Gras outfit with the staff and everything, while the band played when the Saints Go Marching in behind him. It's not a group thing. One person needs to get embarrassed at the bachelor party now.

Chad Millman (7:02)

Times have changed, brother. Bachelor, we're not. We're not there to be assholes to him. We're there to support. And I told you, it's depressing. This is my last friend that's getting married. Unless my buddies get divorced. It's my last bachelor party.

Simon Hunter (7:12)

So there's nothing assholey about it. This guy had so much fun. I had so much fun. It's 30 freaking years later and we still laugh about these, by the way, on all the trips that we go on every single year with all my high school buddies and their wives, we all still laugh about it. I'm excited for you to be Fred Durst and Limp Bizkit. How's it none of you get Limp Bizkits this weekend, right?

Chad Millman (7:39)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (7:39)

Right? You get that?

Chad Millman (7:40)

Yeah.

Simon Hunter (7:41)

Pretty good, right? I hope it's not your last bachelor party.

Chad Millman (7:45)

Unless someone gets divorced, it is. I'm not making any new friends, brother. I do 100 phone calls. It feels like a day with all these different people. I got no room for new friends. So. Chad, Chad, unless you're getting divorced, one of my buddies getting divorced. No More bachelor parties. Unless it's my own.

Simon Hunter (8:01)

Well, listen, if you're bored, you can come up and stay with me and Stacy because we're going to be empty nesters soon. Or. I heard. I heard this weekend. People don't like to call it empty nesters. They like to call it free birds.

Chad Millman (8:13)

I like that better. I like that.

Simon Hunter (8:14)

I like that better. All right, let's get to it. I'm glad we're. I want you to have a good time this weekend in Delaware. Listen, we're going to talk about the NFC west today. Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, La Rams, San Francisco 49ers. Listen, I know we've been talking about the Niners and the Rams since the season ended. Niners, one of the first bets I made for futures. I know you did, too, but as the off season has gone on, you've started like the Rams a little bit more. So we're going to talk about the Rams in a sec. But like I did with Pete Carroll, I want to give you some Kyle Shanahan stats for context. 2018 Kyle Shanahan went 4 and 12, 20, 19, 13 and 3, 2020 Kyle Shanahan went 6 and 10, 20, 21, 10 and 7, 2024 Kyle Shanahan went 6 and 11, 20, 25. Who knows? The point is the 10 and a half is undervaluing the by the way, I didn't give you their odds today. Division odds plus 150. Conference plus 650. Super Bowl 20 to 1. We got them closer to 25 win total. 10 and a half. I think this win total is valuing the Niners below market, definitely below where they had been years prior. Whenever this guy has a down year, it's because of massive amounts of injuries and he comes back so strong the next year and years when his team has been healthy. He's never had fewer than 10 wins in a season in his career. Right. So I you Will he be healthy? Purdy, Will he be more comfortable with his full complement of players around him? McCaffrey, will he be healthy? Trent Williams, obviously not holding out. Will he be in better conditioning? Like this is a team and I'm not even getting to the schedule yet that after I did my research, I started to get a lot higher on Talk to me.

Chad Millman (10:28)

Yeah, we both made really, really early bets on this team to win the super bowl odds. And I told you at that time that I had already bet the Rams before. The Rams were literally the first bet I made as soon as the season ended. I think they were 28 to 1, you know this, this, this 49ers team, it just lines up for what we do here as better as of football is we look for these last place teams from the year before and the team that had horrible injuries, bad luck, all that noise. They are that team. They have the, they were fourth place in their division. They had a ton of injuries in this and you go through and it's like, okay, they get all these guys back and they're getting what me and you agreed to be one of the best defensive coordinators in solid back to man this defense they got, they went out and got some big boys for that defensive line. They've gotten, they're much bigger than they were last year on that defensive line. I think that's obviously going to help the secondary and the linebacker position. You know, that's all fun and good. I told you my hesitation with them is how have they drafted these last couple of years because they've had to have paid their quarterback now. So that means there's no longer the rookie deal. Right? It's no longer they can just go out and get a 25, 30 million dollar free agent. Just added to that defense like they could before. Right. They've had to pay pretty now. So things are going to be a little different. And the only reason I love this team like I do is because of their schedule like that really is it where I, you know, as the human element of it. I wanted to be down on this team coming into it because it's like I have too many questions about the way they've drafted lately. But when you go through their schedule and you know, we don't know the deal is Auk, Auk. Auk might not be back till mid October, November. Like no one knows the trajectory of his injury. He's not practicing with them yet. Right. He's still rehabbing, still getting, trying to get his body right. That's a big deal because it's gone from that super bowl run they had. They had Auk and Debo playing at really high levels and Debo is gone, which to me was the right move. They're putting a lot on, you know, Ricky here and you know he could take that year to jump as wide receivers do, but it's, that's a big question mark. We don't know how he's going to react to being the main focus in this offense. And you know, I don't really have the questions about Purdy. Like to me, Purdy showed me a lot last year in his playing style. Did you have in your top 10 this year?

Simon Hunter (12:47)

I did.

Chad Millman (12:48)

I didn't. Just because I, I obviously have other guys above him. But like he's right there for me. Like Purdy, ton of respect. I think he's a ton of talent. Obviously he's, you know, getting McCaffrey back is just the ultimate game changer for this team. Like that. That to me is everything. So that's the hesitation, the fear with me, with this team, it's like that's the only thing I'm having pause on divisional odds chat +150. That to me is right. They should be the favorite in this division. They're the best team in this division when it's all said and done. They have arguably the most talent in this division. But again, it's all about how they've drafted those years, how it's going to be put together. So not going to bet them divisional odds, not going to bet them conference, not betting them super bowl because like we just said, we've already bet it. It's moved too much for me to bet it again. The value is just not there. Win total though. I like that. Ten and a half. I think the books are kind of showing their ass here. Like everyone in the general public is like, whoa, that's high for a 49ers team that was in last place last year. And even the ones that are like, well, they were hurt, they're going to be better. They still don't see that many people giving them over 10 wins where, you know, again it's all based off schedule. I have them at 12 wins, so I have them a win and a half above what the books are projecting. So yeah, my motto really likes them. I gotta go with it because I, I look at this record and I think to myself, okay, let's go by game by game and try to find these wins for them. And you can find them. I know that's stupid because we don't really know what these things are gonna be like. But when you do break it down game by game and look at these different teams they match up with, it just all breaks right from their away games, their home games, their schedule wise, like on their short weeks, long weeks, the rested weeks. It's just a really favorable season for this foreigners. And you already talked about it too, the seesawing of Shanahan coach teams. They're down years high, up high, high ceiling years, really low years. It's just he really does well based off of the year before. If they got the fourth place schedule, they really bounce back to five the following season. So even if they have a dip in talent from that super bowl team, I still see them being 11 win team, 12 win team. So yeah, give me that. Over 10 and a half win total.

Simon Hunter (14:50)

Chad easiest schedule in two different categories. Easiest schedule according to 2024 win percentages, aggregate of the teams they are playing. Easiest schedule of the according to 2025 Vegas win totals. Open the season with Seattle on the road. Then they get the Saints on the road, then they get the Cardinals at home, then they get the Jags at home. Also this year they get Giants, Browns, Panthers, Titans, Colts. They are getting the last place schedule and that just has a recipe for a huge amount of wins. I don't like. I really wanted to walk back from this team but the addition of Salah to me elevates their defense even where they might have some holes and we don't know if they have holes. Like to your point, they spent a lot of draft capital on the defense and we don't know yet if that's going to play out. It kind of has to given the way that they've had to pay players for this team to be successful. But I would feel better and I do feel better betting on the Niners with Robert Saleh back as the defensive coordinator. Don't forget that jets defense was really good when he was the coach there and it fell off a cliff when he left. So clearly this is something that he is incredibly good at. We've talked about over the course of the off season, like the most important additions. To me, Robert Sala was one of the most important additions to any team during the off season. So I like it. I like it.

Chad Millman (16:45)

You just talked about their best regular season record. If you want to go out there and find it. There's a couple 11, 0 ones, 12 to ones on 49ers for the best regular season record. So to me that's, that's good value on a team that, you know, like the Bills right now are favorite at +350. We talked about. The Bills have a very easy schedule. That makes sense. Same could be said with this 49ers team. Why are they not plus 400 plus 500. Right. Because once again, public reception, they're just not buying it like professional betters are. So yeah, that's, that's a nice little value bet. 12 to 1, 1101 best record 49ers.

Simon Hunter (17:18)

By the way, you know we talked about betting the Niners at 25 to 1. I also bet the Bills Niners matchup in the Super bowl at 45 to 1.

Chad Millman (17:32)

I like that.

Simon Hunter (17:33)

I had completely forgotten about it this morning. I was checking my accounts to see what bets I had made in the off season because I had forgotten, like what number did I get? Yeah, the Niners at what number did I get the packers at? I think I got what number did I get the Rams at? And I saw this and then I saw three other bets which I had forgotten making. One was cowboys plus 240 in week one, cowboys plus seven in week one and I pulled the trigger. I don't remember this. We were talking about the Bills and the Panthers like in the, in the middle of the off season. And I bet the Panthers plus seven against the Bills like in, in week eight. I think the thinking was we're going to believe the Panthers are going to be much better and that number is going to come down.

Chad Millman (18:25)

That is crazy.

Simon Hunter (18:26)

So I went for it.

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Podcast Host (19:28)

Get fired up y'.

Chad Millman (19:30)

All.

Podcast Host (19:30)

Season 2 of Good Game with Sarah Spain is underway. We just welcomed one of my favorite people and an incomparable soccer icon, Megan Rapinoe to the show and we had a blast. We talked about her recent 40th birthday celebrations, Co hosting a podcast with her fiance sue, bird watching former teammates retire and more. Never a dull moment with Pino. Take a listen. What do you miss the most about being a pro athlete? The final. The final and the locker room. I really really like you. Just you can't replicate. You can't get back. Showing up to the locker room every morning just to talk. We've got more incredible guests like the legendary Candace, Paul Parker, and college superstar Az Fudd. I mean, seriously, y', all, the guest list is absolutely stacked for season two. And you know, we're always going to keep you up to speed on all the news and happenings around the women's sports world as well. So make sure you listen to Good Game with Sarah Spain on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Podcast Host (20:29)

Presented by Capital One, founding partner of iHeart Women's Sports.

Podcast Host (20:33)

Imagine that you're on an airplane and all of a sudden you hear this.

Simon Hunter (20:36)

Attention passengers. The pilot is having an emergency and we need someone, anyone, to land this plane.

Podcast Host (20:45)

Think you could do it? It turns out that nearly 50% of men think that they could land the plane with the help of air traffic control.

Chad Millman (20:53)

And they're saying, like, okay, pull this.

Podcast Host (20:55)

Until this, pull that, Turn this.

Chad Millman (20:56)

It's just.

Podcast Host (20:57)

I can do my eyes closed. I'm Manny.

Chad Millman (20:59)

I'm Noah. This is Devin.

Podcast Host (21:00)

And on our new show, no Such Thing, we get to the bottom of questions like.

Simon Hunter (21:05)

Like these.

Podcast Host (21:06)

Join us as we talk to the leading expert on overconfidence.

Chad Millman (21:09)

Those who lack expertise, lack the expertise they need to recognize that they lack expertise.

Podcast Host (21:16)

And then as we try the whole thing out for real. Wait, what? Oh, that's the run, right? I'm looking at this thing.

Chad Millman (21:23)

See?

Podcast Host (21:24)

Listen to no Such thing on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Podcast Host (21:32)

Check out behind the Flow, a podcast documentary series following the launch of San Diego Football Club. We go behind the scenes and explore the stories of those involved.

Podcast Host (21:44)

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Chad Millman (21:51)

We need veteran players and we need young players. Like, you're building a team from scratch. And so the succession plan of long term success needs, needs to be defined. We need to embrace this community.

Podcast Host (22:02)

When I was 13, my uncle took me to a qualifier and we watched Paraguay against Chile. Pouring rain. Just watching the fans jumping up and down, I think that was definitely a watershed moment for me. Not only was that going to be my game, but it was going to be my life.

Podcast Host (22:20)

Listen to San Diego FC behind the Flow now on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Simon Hunter (22:31)

All right, Rams, the other contender. Plus 175 in the division, 10 to 1 in the conference, 221 to win the Super Super Bowl. Win total nine and a half. I feel like I See it less with the Rams than you do. I do have some numbers to sort of support ascendancy. But you love the Rams. I think I like the Rams, yeah.

Chad Millman (22:58)

It's pretty simple. It's my job is trying to find people super bowl winners. And when I go through all the teams, nfc, obviously Eagles are the number one. Number two, it just all lines up for this Rams team because it's a team that does not matter if they are home or away. Like, they could be the seventh seed. To me, it would not matter for them. Like, they're just that talented across the board. And the biggest question with them will always be have they drafted to fill that defense out? Because that's going to be their weakness. It's not going to be the offense. Right. That's Sean McVeigh's bread and butters in that offense. And even games they struggle, they eventually find a way and find a way to attack different defenses. And you know, the reason I don't love them for this division, like, I just, you know, the numbers move so much and I'm obviously Super bowl odds. It's 20, like you said, 22 to 1. A lot of books in that 20 to 1. I know that's where they're at in the action app. I gave them that a 28 to 1. And that was obviously before they made the move to get Devonte Adams. And that's. They've had other stuff that the professionals now have come in and move this number down. But what I do not get is a nine and a half like that nine and a half win total. Is that just because Stafford's old and has a bad back and seems like he gets hurt every season. And you know, last year was playing through injuries and kind of fell off a little bit towards the end of the season. You know, that's all fair. But you also go back to last season and that's when they hit their stride in the season. I mean, they really were bad to start the season. I think they were three and six once again to start a year and maybe they ended the season eight and two. It's just. That's just what they've done now the last two seasons. Like, they've started out slow and end of the season really well. They won the division last year. I don't think they get away with that this year with the 49ers. I think the 49ers would be so good throughout the season that they're not gonna be able to steal the division like they did last year in the season. Right. Cause that the division was right there for the Seahawks and Arizona as well. And both of them just fell apart towards the end of the season where the Rams did not. So you know, looking at this team and the way they play with Stafford, you know, the Devonte Adams piece to this to me is just such a major, not talked about addition to a team that, you know, Puka, if he's healthy, to me he's a top five, top six wide receiver in this league. Like his range, be able to catch the ball, his athleticism, his blocking as well. Just one of the blockers which makes one of the run games so dominant. Last year their run game was not that good. Like people forget that, you know, Williams was a little banged up as well. They went out and drafted a running back this upcoming season just because of that. They like, okay, we're not messing around with this again. We need to make sure our run game is on point. And that's a big deal when you have someone like Stafford. But when you add in Devonte Adams as well. Yes, Puka and Devonte Adams. And even if you want to say Devonte's over the hill, which we could all agree on, he's still one of the best route running receivers. And especially in the red zone, which is where they struggled last year was scoring in the red zone. This Rams team. So that's why I give them such a major bump here. You know, once again, I'm not going to bet them divisional odds. I was hoping this would be a little better. I can be patient here. Even though their start of the season isn't, you know, brutal. Right. They have not. Yeah. And they go Houston, Tennessee, Eagles, Colts, 49ers, Ravens, Jacksonville. Then they have a bye week. So this is another team that I might just wait till the bye week to take a divisional odds bet on them. See if they start, you know, 3 and 4 get way better odds. Especially if the 49ers have a hot start that, that to me is where the value would be better than divisionally. But win total, you can bet that now if you want nine and a half. You know, I easily see this team getting to 10 wins. My model is a little hesitant about. They only had him at ten and a half which I was shocked by. But that could just be because they are playing a first place schedule. Right. They won their division. They're going to have to play play the Eagles, they're going to have to play the Bucks. You have to play Detroit. That's always going to make your season A little bit tougher for win totals when you're using a model to base off wins. So to me, I would take the win total year. I have no fear in it. Sean McVeigh, 10, 7 at worst, to me feels like that's the low bar even if he gets hurt. Once again, Stafford, I know he's not that good of a quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, but he's a veteran that knows how to run this type of offense. Right. He's. He's not the type of guy that's going to burn you, especially when he has those type of weapons on the outside. So I think it's a little safety proof. The fact they have a veteran presence like that and Jimmy backing up Stafford and 10, 10 wins feels like it's not crazy to bet on at this point. So yeah, we're starting off at the top 49ers over win total. Same with the Rams. I like the over for them as well. Nine and a half.

Simon Hunter (27:28)

By the way, I take issue with one thing you said. You said the early part of their schedule isn't brutal and then I immediately agreed and I'm wrong. And I made a note of this.

Chad Millman (27:38)

Oh, I meant to say is brutal. Is brutal division.

Simon Hunter (27:42)

I thought you said. I thought you said it isn't brutal.

Chad Millman (27:44)

I might have said is. I meant to say is my bad.

Simon Hunter (27:46)

Because for their first six games, Texans, Eagles in Philly, Niners, Ravens in Baltimore.

Chad Millman (27:55)

Yeah, so like I said, I wouldn't bet that until the divisional odds till after that. By a week. I think you'll get better. Better odds.

Simon Hunter (28:01)

So you, you said the magic word here, which is. Is their defense, which is full of young great players going to continue to be on the upswing before their week six. By last year they had the worst pass defense in the NFL. They allowed the highest EPA expected points added and the most yards per attempt post by Jared Verse moves into the lineup full time as a starter. They ranked 8th best in EPA, 9th best in YPA and posted the league's highest disruption rate. Nice job. The throw the damn ball sub stack, which is fantastic. I highly recommend people check it out. But can that improvement continue? Can they continue to be as aggressive? Can they continue to be as physical and dynamic? Great defensive line, right? Kobe Turner, Brandon Fisk, Jared Verse, like I mentioned, like that is a really good defensive line. Will they continue to develop and excel? That's the question. And is Stafford going to be upright?

Chad Millman (29:17)

Yeah, that's, that's the fear. Is like Stafford Gerard coming to camp. He's already Got back spasms and back issues. Like he's already resting, missing practices. Start there. Which again, not a big deal because he's a veteran, but it's like, okay, this is, this is what we're, we're dealing with. We're betting guy like Stafford, who, you know, his body got beat up in Detroit all those years. It's, it was going to catch up to him at some point. So, you know, last year played through a bunch of injuries. You saw that kind of happen with him. And I think his best game is against the Bills. And then after that game he just was not right for about four or five weeks. And they really relied on what Chad just talked about, which was that defense. So yeah, if that defense shows up for them, this could be a really dominant team. If they regress, man, they could finish easily third or fourth in this division. Like, this is going to be a tough division.

Simon Hunter (30:02)

In my TikTok feed, you know, I love TikTok. I know you're against it, but I recently got a old school NFL Films Steve Sable introducing four uninterrupted minutes of audio and video at the end of a game. And Matthew Stafford's rookie season where he gets leveled with like 10 seconds left. And he's in agony. He's writhing on the field. His shoulder is, his arm is dangling because his shoulder is separated. He's got to go to the sideline. He can't even handle it. If someone touches his shoulder pad. They have a chance to win the game.

Chad Millman (30:45)

They.

Simon Hunter (30:45)

But he had to leave the field and clearly cannot come back on the field. And the opposing team calls a timeout. So he gets about 30 seconds of a blow and that allows him to come back onto the field for the final play with one arm. He throws the game winning touchdown. And that is the beginning of the Matthew Stafford legend and why his teammates love him so much because he's such fucking badass. But it just reminds you what a terrible fucking game. Like he got leveled. He shouldn't even have an arm after what happened to him. And he got out there without even shots. Like you could see he's on, on the sideline the whole time, gets out there and just throws a dime.

Chad Millman (31:29)

Stafford takes the snap, sets in the pocket, rolls left. Stafford looking for somewhere to go, sets it. And it's gonna be on Hank Poutine in the end zone.

Simon Hunter (31:44)

He's down on the field and is not getting up.

Chad Millman (31:48)

Yeah, I remember that one. The best is just the sounds he makes during. He's just like, I came guys, I Can't feel my arm. I don't know about right now, but it came out and back in during that play.

Simon Hunter (32:07)

How dare you try to diminish the toughness of Matthew Stafford and make him sound like he is whining and it's just funny sounds.

Chad Millman (32:17)

He makes funny sounds, dude.

Simon Hunter (32:19)

Not right. Not right for the quarterback that you have in the top 10. Perennially Cardinals plus 450, 26 to 1 to win the Conference Super Bowl, 50 to 1 win total, eight and a half. So this is what shocked me. And I mentioned this the other day when we were talking about the Chiefs. I was going through Kyler Murray's career because like one of the things I was reading up on talked about how he, you know, he injured his knee, I think in 2021. And that last year, maybe 22, I can't remember which, but last year was sort of his best year since early part of 21 when he was having an MVP caliber season. And in my head, Kyler Murray just still feels like a guy who's a year removed from being a rookie because we keep waiting for him to live up to his potential. And then I realized, as I said, he started one fewer years than Patrick Mahomes and the difference in how we think and I know, different coaching, different franchises, different talent, etc. Etc. But Kyler Murray, the fact that we still talk about Kyler Murray as a guy who, if he can put it together, who we're counting on living up to his potential, it feels like the same conversation every year. So what are we going to get? Like, is he going to be the guy who when he had Cliff Kingsbury and was great in early 2021, who last year started to show flashes of being a little bit smarter in the pocket, taking fewer sacks, having this team rally around him, Best year certainly since that early 2021 season, early part of 2021. It's the only question, right? Like that's it. Is Kyler Murray the guy or not?

Chad Millman (34:03)

Yeah. The joke with Kyler Murray is he's always a year away. He's a year away from being a year away. It's.

Simon Hunter (34:07)

Yeah, that's. By the way, is that the joke? I didn't even know that.

Chad Millman (34:11)

Yeah, I mean, there's, I mean there's, there's always quarterbacks like him where that.

Simon Hunter (34:15)

Joke isn't on TikTok.

Chad Millman (34:17)

Again, I don't, I don't have tick tock. I'm a grown man. You're the tick tock guy.

Simon Hunter (34:21)

All right. Okay. Grown man. I look forward to seeing your pictures from the Limp Bizkit telethon this weekend.

Chad Millman (34:28)

You're. You're jealous. Sounds like you're jealous. All for that nookie. I. I look at Kyler Murray and I always see the potential, but it's just. I think we're all just sick of the inconsistency, where it's like, you know, one week it can look really good, and then, you know, the word. The game that pissed me off the most last year that we should have seen coming was Washington Commanders. I don't. I don't know if it was in Arizona, but it might have been in Arizona. They went down there and beat the shit of this Arizona team, like, literally embarrassed them. And I should have known that. I was like, okay, this is. This is who Kyler Murray is. He's just an inconsistent guy that when he plays against a good quarterback or faces a good team, he'll never love them. He can beat up bad teams or he can steal a game every now and then, but when he has a good team with momentum against him, he'll never beat that type of team. And, you know, last year, just, like, it was all lined up for them to steal this division. Like, there were so many ways they could have stole this division. They had an easy schedule. You know, he didn't trust Marvin Harris Jr. Which, you know, I get. But even McBride, like, I don't think. I think McBride had some crazy streak where he had, like, the most catches in NFL without a touchdown. Like, all just a bunch of weird little things like that where, yes, we can say his offensive line is not that good and that defense isn't that good, and, you know, Buddha Baker is all they have on the defensive side, and that's why. That's why this team struggles. They're always going to be a couple of draft pieces away, and it's never Kyler's fault, but when you really dive into it, it's like there's games that are winnable for them, and Kyler doesn't live up to those moments. And like you said, we're in the seventh year here. We know he has the talent. He has all the talent around him. Like, could he shock the world and steal this division plus 450? Yeah, if you want to go out there and bet that, go for it. But to me, my model actually is I'm only at eight wins. I don't even have an eight wins when I really run through and I'm like, I can't see them even getting to eight wins. Just how hard this division is, and they're out of conference games are so, you know, 8 and A. If you want to bet that over, go for it. I'm on the under. Not one of my best bets. Like, it's just half a game to the under I have, but I just. I can't get there. This team. But I'm excited to see what the future is because you have Marvin, you have, you know, McBride one of the better tight ends. You know, James Connor might be a little, little bit on the way out, right? His best days might be on him, but he's still a talented running back. Like, they have all these weapons offensively. Can Kyler be a leader? Can he be what you just talked about? Can he be that MVP level that we know he has athleticism, but can he be consistent? Because you. He is one of those guys from my money, where it's like, again, I. I want people to have their own lives outside of football, but it's like, does he care more about being a streamer? Does he care more about playing video games or live streaming his life on YouTube and his daily life week to week? Because for me, the best quarterbacks in football, they have no lives. All they care about is football. Like Mahomes, I watch just like you. I watch his QB life. He lives a pretty boring life. Like, he just practice, work, home. Jalen Hurts is a robot. That's all he does. Josh Allen. That's why I came with, to watch Hard Knocks. Everything I heard about Josh Allen is, yeah, he has fun the off season, but he is a boring robot during the season. He just does the same thing all day, every day. It's just all about football and commitment. So can Kyler Nick that next step, Chad? That's the big question here. And I don't think me neither want to put our money into that. Like, I don't believe enough to invest my money into him for the next six months. So I'm just. I'm very down on Kyler and this team right now. And it's for a good reason. It's just a really tough division. He's never taken that next step. Has shown us that he deserves that respect that these other quarterbacks have.

Simon Hunter (37:55)

Yeah, I don't even know why you would say to people if you want to bet the over eight and a half, like, there's nothing about this team, especially in this division, that makes me feel like, oh, yeah, I don't want to invest in this team's overall success. They have never proven it. They had some Flashes last year. But in the end they had their classic Cardinals games and classic Kyler Murray games. There's a lot of game, a lot of teams. We've talked about them already. Talk about the Saints under. Talk about the Panthers over. Talk about the Titans over. Right. Like talk about the Raiders over. It's been a lot of games, a lot of teams that we can talk about betting on. The Cardinals just feel like they got a Colts vibe. No read. Middle of the road. No value.

Chad Millman (38:51)

No. And just again, it's just, it's. Why would we be excited about this team? It's hard to get excited about them when Kyler's just disappointed people. Like you said, it's crazy to think how long he's been in the league now and this is his seventh season. He's just, he's done nothing. Like. No. Memorable. Sure. That crazy play on that two point conversion. Or maybe it was a touchdown where he ran around for 30 seconds. Yes, that was memorable. Him having that Hail Mary pass. Yeah, that was memorable. But no play success. He's done nothing to change that organization around. You know, like Kurt Warner. Carson Palmer did more on their stops in Arizona than he has and he's got way more athletic talent than those guys. So it's just very disappointing what Kyle Murray's career has been so far.

Simon Hunter (39:32)

All right, well, it's not clear. I think we're down on the Cardinals. The only time I might be more down on The Seattle Seahawks +650 conference is 35 to 1 Super Bowl, 60 to 1 win total, 8 and a half. And that just feels high to me. I feel like Mike McDonald is getting the benefit of the doubt and I feel like there's some public perception benefit for Sam Darnold. I'm not buying it. I'm just telling you right now, like there is such a massive difference between Sam Darnold playing behind a Vikings offensive line and having Kevin o' Connell whisper in his ear and a offensive system in Seattle that doesn't have Kevin o' Connell and also has what may be the worst offensive line in football. Like, that's not even really debatable. They didn't get better during the off season and they've invested this money and handed the ball to a quarterback who, remember, his downfall began with the jets when he was getting pressure and said he was seeing ghosts. Last year he was good because he wasn't getting pressure. So what have the Seahawks done to make sure that Sam Darnold is not going to be pressured? He was pressured in the Playoffs got crushed in the playoffs. So I worry that they've handed a lot of money in the ball to a guy who isn't going to have any protection. I would be buying the under on the Seahawks. Eight and a half.

Chad Millman (41:08)

Yeah. It's an interesting team where they've really, you know, revamped this whole offense and you know, I remember some jackass two years ago said they had potentially the three best wide receiver trio in all history. Yeah. Ever.

Simon Hunter (41:21)

Who the fuck would say that? What kind of. What kind of dickhead?

Chad Millman (41:25)

Dk. DK Metcalf gone. Tyler Lockett, gone. So they've gotten rid of two of their studs and you know, they're. The biggest question to me is what you just talked about like that. I think this winter reflects what you just talked about their head coach, that he's one of the best defensive minds in all football. So you're going to respect that their defense is going to be, you know, top five, top ten potentially. Like they should really get better year two of front of his defensive scheme. And you know, we saw last year they did improve his year one along defensively, but you just nailed it. Like that fact that they brought in Sam Darnold when they knew they have a bottom three, bottom five offensive line, it's criminal. It's. It's his, it's his kryptonite. Like we saw when that offensive line got banged up on the Vikings. He struggled against Detroit, he struggled against the Rams. And that's what it was. It was the pressure in his face, get him off his spot. And you know, the thing that impressed me the most we talked about last year with Sandrano was how clutch he was in the fourth quarter last year and these one score games when everyone was getting tight, he kept winning for the Vikings, which was the biggest shocking part of that season last year, the Vikings. But like you said, he had one of the best offensive minds in his ear at the time and he doesn't have that same benefit like Kevin o'. Connell. You know, not saying he makes these quarterbacks, but he obviously is a lifeline for them. He helps them improve greatly. He's leaving that. So the one best season we've ever seen from Sam under the tute of a great offensive mind that's gone under a good, you know, great weapons, I should say. And Jefferson Addison at the wide receiver position, that's gone. And you've taken away his offensive line. How can you be positive about this team? Like again, Colin Cowherd, we know his love affair with Sam Darnold I get why he would love the Seahawks. Anyone else outside that fandom, there's nothing there to grab onto that. It's like, okay, I am really excited and I really believe in this team where they've gotten rid of some of their best weapons on offense and that offensive line has not improved. They did not address the biggest weakness of this team. So, you know, to me, we always talk about coaching, maybe there's going to be some improvement. Maybe I'm being too down on them and maybe I need to dive more into them this preseason and watch more tape on their offensive line and really break down, see if they've improved any way. But what I've seen in just two weeks or a week and a half is it feels like same old, but it's hard to know because their defense is just that much better than our offense where the defense feels like every day are winning the day by the beat writers. So they're just another team like the Cardinals. I'm just down on because I'm so high on the rams of the 49ers. How do we not take this win total under another team, though, that, you know, just like Cardinals. I had my, my model item at 8. Still the same thing here. The Seahawks has him right at 8. I think as a human, as I dive into it more, I don't think the computer realizes how big of a downgrade it is going from that Vikings team to the Seattle team for Sam Darnold. So I would put them at seven and a half, seven wins. So I like that under eight and a half.

Simon Hunter (44:16)

I'm just looking at their schedule right now. They open with the Niners at home, then they go to Steel, to the Steelers. They do get the Saints at home after that. And then they get the Cardinals on the road. They got the Bucks, they got the Texans, they got the Commanders, they got the Rams, they got the Vikings. Like, it's not a terrible schedule, but it's not the easiest schedule.

Chad Millman (44:42)

No, it's not the 49ers schedule. That's their issue.

Simon Hunter (44:43)

It's not the 49ers.

Chad Millman (44:44)

Yeah. And the 49ers have more talent. So that's what. It's just tough with Seattle where, like, I see the future, I see what they're building there defensively. But offensively it feels like we're at least two, two years away. Like, they have to address offensive line. Like Darnold. We know he has a talent, we know he can be clutch, but we know his weakness. It's the offensive line. So it feels like this is the type of team that they'll struggle this year and then we'll hear the whole offseason. We know what Seattle needs to do. Seattle needs to address the offensive line and that's hopefully what they'll do next year because they kind of wasted this year not attacking off this line. Again, it's hard to do, but there are pieces out there, right? There were guys available from different teams, all offensive line wise that they didn't, they didn't go out of attack this position. So yeah, it's, it's going to be tough. Seattle, they're just, I don't know, I feel, I would hate to be a fan of their team right now because it feels like they're just like one of these middle mid level teams that you don't really believe they'll ever win a Super bowl but they'll never be bad enough to get the one or two top picks. So it's, it's tough right now for Seattle where, you know, Sam Darnold might be your answer for them 2, 3 years whether you like it or not.

Simon Hunter (45:46)

All right, so let's run through this. My favorite bets in the division. Niners Super bowl odds 20 to 1. Not my favorite number. We got it at a better number. Niners over ten and a half. Seahawks under eight and a half. What are yours?

Chad Millman (46:10)

Yeah, I'll definitely put win total for 49ers. My number one bet for this division, 10 to 10 and a half. Love that over and then right behind it. Love the Rams obviously over nine and a half. Yeah. If you're, if you're gonna make me take one of these unders, which one I like more. I'll, I'll join you on the Seattle one. I just, I think they have a much, much lower floor than this Cardinals team. It just, it could go really bad for this, this Seattle team pretty quick if they just have no offensive output. So yeah, I'll join you on that. Under eight and a half on that Seattle team.

Simon Hunter (46:43)

All right, we have gone through this week the AFC and NFC West. We will return with our next episode Tuesday on the Action Network YouTube page where we will cover our next NFL division preview. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate, Review, Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you to want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

Podcast Host (47:13)

Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800- GAMBLER mmm mmm.

Simon Hunter (47:26)

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That sounds amazing. Can I have a bite?

Simon Hunter (47:35)

I'm sorry but no. But you can't split the banana split. Not even a little? Not even a crumb.

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Simon Hunter (47:41)

No, please.

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That's cravenience.

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Jake Hofer (47:54)

I'm Jake Hofer and this is back 40, a limited series show on Wire to Hunt, part of Meat Eaters Podcast Network. Each episode I'll be asking eight whitetail hunting pros a focused, thought provoking question about hunting and land management. How do I hunt the best part of the farm with less than ideal access?

Chad Millman (48:12)

Should you? That's what the real question is. Stand without good access is not a good stand.

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Listen to Back 40 on iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast.

A.J. Jacobs (48:25)

Let's start with a quick puzzle. The answer is Ken Jennings appearance on the puzzler with A.J. jacobs. The question is what is the most entertaining listening experience in podcast land? Jeopardy Truthers believe in?

Simon Hunter (48:42)

I guess they would be conspiracy theorists.

A.J. Jacobs (48:45)

That's right.

Chad Millman (48:45)

They give you the answers and you still blew it.

A.J. Jacobs (48:47)

The Puzzler listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

Podcast Host (48:57)

Check out behind the Flow, a podcast documentary series following the launch of San Diego Football Club.

Podcast Host (49:05)

San Diego. Coming to MLS is going to be a game changer because this region has been hungry for a men's professional soccer team.

Chad Millman (49:12)

We need to embrace this community.

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Listen to San Diego FC behind the flow on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcasts.

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