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- [00:00]
Minky Couture
Happy New Year from Minky Couture. Cozy up this winter with the ultimate in comfort and style, our original Minky blankets. Whether you're relaxing at home, enjoying a movie night, or simply staying warm on those chilly nights, Minky Couture has you covered, literally. Choose from our wide selection of luxurious designs, colors, and sizes perfect for everyone in the family. Celebrate the season in warmth and comfort. Visit minkycouture.com or stop by your nearest Minky Couture store today. Minky Couture, blanketing the world in warmth and love.
- [00:30]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:00]
Justin Penick
What's up, everyone? It's Justin Penick from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week. On Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did.
- [01:31]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [01:36]
Jason Demers
Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [01:41]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
- [01:46]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in, too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le Table.
- [01:55]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and demers in the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [02:12]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network I am live from my Time of John home studio and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter.
- [02:33]
Minky Couture
Hello Simon Chad, how we doing brother?
- [02:37]
Chad Millman
I'm so glad we're starting the show because from the time we got on 15 minutes ago until literally the second we went live, Matt Mitchell did not shut the fuck up.
- [02:51]
Minky Couture
Loved it.
- [02:52]
Chad Millman
Like 15 straight minutes of talking. What it was like listening to my mother in law on hyperspeed who can cover 1,000 different topics in the span of 15 minutes without anyone even responding, Making eye contact, looking up, asking a question, ask. I wanted to have Matt Mitchell come on the show today to talk about the Bills. I know he's made a massive bet on the Bills. I'm a little nervous about it because I know he likes to keep the shows tight and that might add 45 fucking minutes to the show. So we'll have to see how we're feeling when we get to the Chiefs Bills game to see. We want to add Matt Mitchell and his nonsense on the show today. Today is our Conference Championship Weekend Best Bets episode. As we did last week, we will not only be reviewing the sides for this weekend's games, we are adding bets we like as well. Hopefully going to give folks more to look for, root for. Think about this weekend. We will also be including the best options for our foxhole as well as our Tommy John Big Balls bet of the week. And we will have of course discuss Simon's biggest bets. Play, scoot, roulette, all that jazz. Plus today I do want to have a conversation about two very important topics. 1. Hedging I mentioned this on Tuesday. Simon and I both gave out super bowl matchup bets on this very show before the season began. We each have one AFC team and one NFC team from those bets still alive. So we got a shot that may be true for a lot of you. So how do we hedge if we want to do you want to cash out? I got that question on Twitter. Also, I want to talk about super bowl futures. There's four teams left. If you choose to get some value before the big game, now is the last chance. As we were last Sunday, we will be on Sunday night after the end of the second game. This is the Bills Chiefs this weekend. We will come on live after that first look at super bowl review of what happened during the day. Bets are rolling in. Lines are moving. Decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast boss Colin Cowherd likes to say, there's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylv, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, as always on Thursdays, we'd like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. Fewer games, but still lots of opinions. We are very influential. Lines have already moved based on our conversations. Let's get some opinions from the wise guys. Simon, let's do Chef Carl.
- [06:11]
Matt Mitchell
Hello.
- [06:12]
Minky Couture
Who's there? I'm talking rain ring, telephone ring.
- [06:17]
Chad Millman
Somebody saying, baby, what you doing?
- [06:20]
Minky Couture
Yeah, interesting week. Shocked. I thought it was going to be everyone on our side, to be honest with you, Chad, it felt like we're going up against two very public dogs. But there is some really smart money on the other side and we can start the commanders guys, I respect taking a position on that side, and I think it really does come down to Hertz's health. They. They think they are getting a good number here because Herz is not going to do what he can normally do, and I still think it's being overrated. It's like they don't rely on Herz. This is not a team built around Hertz. It's the team built relying the running game. So definitely a lot of arguments right now about that with I'm being told that I'm overvaluing Hertz and not understanding his injury. And they think they're getting a great number and the books backed it up. Most bookmakers I've talked to, it's heavy, heavy. Like, there was really heavy early money on the Eagles. Now it's basically all Washington. Like, they're all taking the six. It's not even close on the money line. It's all money is coming in on the money line for this Washington team. So, yeah, I can't dive to that because that honestly makes me feel even better. Like the books needing a home favorite. Like, even when I'm talking to the bookmakers, they're laughing about it because again, Chiefs are big. Basically the same exact spot as the, as the Eagles. It's all Bills money. All the money coming in right now is Bills. All the teasers are on the Bills. So yeah, if you're, if you're like me and you talk to bookmakers and you go to a lot of different books, they're very happy right now in their position to be in. Right. They are in the position of they need two home favorites to cover and win. And on the futures market, the, the best outcome for them is the Chiefs. The Chiefs have never, I mean, Evan could probably test this. I don't think they ever got above plus 700 for the entire season. So this is a team that basically never got really high odds. On the flip side, if the Commanders make it to the super bowl, they'll be crushed. Like, that's a position that, you know, Joe Schmo down the street that bet them at 101 or 150 to one can be able to hedge and professionals will be able to hedge. So it is interesting talking the perspective of the bookmakers and the perspective of the professionals that, you know, I get why they love the Bills. I get why they love Commanders. It's a coin flip type of game. But I do think their numbers have overrated both those sides. So, yeah, I'm looking forward to diving into these games even more, Chad, because it does seem like, you know, coming into it I was a little nervous. Positions, you know, me and Chad don't love betting favorites, especially chalk favorites. Not chalk favorites. In this spot, we are definitely taking shockingly the underdog kind of favorites in the spot of everyone's backing the dogs on the road and we are actually the ones going off trail here and taking their home favorites, which is pretty shocking position to be in.
- [08:54]
Chad Millman
All right. I love it. That is a great tee up for what we're going to talk about because it's Washington at Philadelphia. The number at bet 365 is minus 6. The total is 47 and a half. I have seen this at 6 and a half in some spots, but guess what? Right off the bat, our big ball bet of the week presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great game start with great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest man. Number six. Like I said, tattooed to six and a half already there in some spots. I do want to give you one funny story. As a Philly native, you can appreciate this. So my younger son, my 18 year old has discovered it's always Sunny. And he's been watching it constantly lately. And if I'm in the same room with him at the same time and, like, he's just watching it, I end up sitting down and. And watching a few episodes. And, like, he's in the beginning. He's only in season two, right? So it's going back 18, 19 years. And the episode that came on yesterday that I watched with him, the gang gets Invincible. I don't know if you remember this episode, of course, but this is the episode where Mac and Dennis and D try out for the Eagles. Because it's right when the movie Invincible came out. And everybody in Philly, every fucking Philly scumbag, decided they're Vince Papali and they can go try out for the Eagles. And they're going to make the Eagles.
- [10:42]
Minky Couture
Steve. Lies moving fast. Come on, let's get on the bus.
- [10:45]
Simon Hunter
Bus?
- [10:45]
Chad Millman
What the hell are you talking about?
- [10:47]
Minky Couture
The bus that takes you to the field.
- [10:48]
Chad Millman
Oh, wait, I thought we were gonna.
- [10:50]
Simon Hunter
Be playing on the link.
- [10:50]
Minky Couture
You think you dipshits gonna play on the same field that champions play on?
- [10:54]
Chad Millman
Where we going?
- [10:57]
Minky Couture
We going to a shitty high school in Bucks County. Get your ass on the bus. Sprint to the bus. Sprint to the bus.
- [11:03]
Chad Millman
So on the show, they have a tryout that is inspired by Vince McPauley making it. And they say we gotta do it because the New Kids on the Block movie about the guy making the team, you know? Cause Mark Wahlberg and whatever. And so. So I'm watching it, and in the middle of it, I don't say anything about it. In the middle of it, my kid says to me, didn't you, like, do something about some dude who tried out for the Eagles? I'm like, yeah, I wrote the book Invincible. It's on a shelf 10ft from where you're sitting right now. I wrote it when you were just born so we could put food on the fucking table. I cannot believe you can even remember how many times we've talked about this book. And you cannot remember that I wrote the book Invincible. No. There's no respect in my house.
- [11:56]
Minky Couture
Simon, I love that you watched an episode. Great episode. Cameo by Donovan McNabb. You got Frank Reynolds getting stuck in a porter in a bathroom.
- [12:04]
Chad Millman
I should say, oh, my God. And the Green Man. And by the way, it wasn't a Donovan McNabb cameo. It was a cameo.
- [12:10]
Minky Couture
I know. That's the joke.
- [12:11]
Chad Millman
I know because it's so good. It's such a good show. I haven't watched it in a while because I Feel like I was just caught up, man. It is so funny. It makes me love Philly. You know how much I love Philly. It makes me love Philly even more.
- [12:28]
Minky Couture
I'm the trash, man.
- [12:30]
Michael Rapoport
Just throw me in the trash.
- [12:31]
Chad Millman
And I love the Eagles even more. This is our big balls. I kind of feel like it might need to be our foxhole too. We might need to double down here the same way we did with the Chiefs on Simon Says and Exec. Because if all this money is starting to come in the commanders, it really does feel like we're starting to be alone here.
- [12:49]
Minky Couture
Damn it. God damn it. God damn it. You get into this time of year and it's really is opinion heavy and guys try to just throw the numbers out, which I would love to make fun of them and everything like that, but I do that too. Like that Bill spot last week, Chad was totally right in his thinking of the Bills were not the better team that, you know, Ravens team were better on paper in almost every metric. But I kept saying you had to throw the numbers out. And this is the type of game where there's plenty of guys making their statement, taking their position on this Washington team and has the same view of it. They know that this is not as good of a team on as the Eagles on paper. They know that this is, you know, not. I don't want to say a fluke, but it is a fluke. Come on, let's be real, people. This is the six seed. We know how rare this is. I think Evan had an amazing.
- [13:38]
Chad Millman
With a rookie quarterback, right?
- [13:41]
Minky Couture
Evan had an amazing piece about this, how it's like this just never happens. And obviously as an Eagles fan, it doesn't get much better. My team is literally a game away from beating a rookie quarterback six seed at home to make the Super Bowl. You literally can't have an easier position. The Chiefs got to play the freaking Bills and vice versa. Like that's. That's usually where you're getting conference championship games. You don't usually play a rookie quarterback with a team that is just happy to be there, right? This insane run that they've been on. And yeah, it's been interesting. Breaking down the game and especially this week, all I'm really doing is watching film, honestly, like that's. That's what's so fun. When there's just two games left, you can really dive into both teams. And obviously, if you listen to the show all year, I mean, me and Chad have talked ad nauseam about how much we love Daniels in this Washington team and we bet them all season, we love them. I mean, I've talked so much about how impressed I was with him and you know, this is a game though. You have to really go back to what me and Chad talked about. There were two previous games against the Bucs and the Lions and why they did win those games. Yes, Daniels played incredible. It was all about turnovers, right? That to me is, at the end of the day, that was the key to those games. And we've seen this playoffs really dictated by that. Now that's not shocking anybody, right? That's how it is usually. But you've seen teams play these incredibly conservative, boring offenses. Three out of the four teams have done that style this playoffs and have gotten to this position. Now, you know, Daniels just doesn't play that way, right? He's a high risk, high variance type of player. He's willing to push the ball downfield in those 50, 50 balls, he's willing.
- [15:12]
Chad Millman
He makes a lot of bad throws like he's a rookie, right. And he, he's incredibly accurate. I don't mean to cut you off, but like he's incredibly accurate, but he makes a lot of downfield throws with that. If you're watching it on television, the camera pans and these are millimeters away from picks.
- [15:31]
Minky Couture
And what I found by watching this film, especially going back to the earlier games, is how cool he is in the pocket. And we talked about that. We're like, eventually he's going to take a hit and he won't be so calm cool in the pocket like he was and he did. It might have been your guys Bears game where he basically got rocked. I don't know if his ribs got broken or bruised, but you saw there was a three, four game period there where it was different. Like you could see that he, after that hit, it was different. And now he's back to what he was though once he healed up and got that confidence back, he's back to what he was in week three, three, four, like that really confidence in the pocket. Just. I can't get over how above his age he does play. I know a lot of people have talked about this week where it's like, you know, he might be a rookie on paper, but he has like, it feels like a year five veteran mentality. He's just so smart, makes the right decisions when he needs to. And yeah, when you break it down, he'll be the X factor in this matchup. But this really like me and Chad talk, this number really should be seven. Seven and a half. Like the fact that, you know golf, who's never done anything in the playoffs, honestly, like this is a guy with the Lions that, you know, he has choked with them and you could say, well, he got to the super bowl with the Rams. I mean, come on, let's be serious here. It's, it's kind of interesting where the, the books got that number up to nine and a half and now against the Eagles team, that to me is better on paper. They're healthy defensively, they have all their guys offensively, they're only a six point favorite against this Washington team. So me and Chad are talking about how this is an inflated line for this Washington team, that this has moved too much. That's what we're talking about. Because I had a lot of people ask about that why we think this is peak value for Washington. Just breaking it down, very simple. You can see how much respect the book's giving them and vice versa. They're in a happy position to be because right now, like I said, they need the Eagles. All this money is pouring in on Washington and you know, me and Chad, honestly, Chad, I thought this would be six and a half seven when we came on today's show. So, you know, the fact that at night, like I've been checking it there is, you see the resistance from professional betters, like a couple books do hit six and a half, quickly bump down to six. So it's clear that there is some really smart money keeping this number down. And I think it does come back to the hurts injury. To me. Like that's why I get why that professional is saying that. Because on one side you have a quarterback that is playing at a high level and he is fully healthy. On the flip side, you have a quarterback that the professionals and public have questions about and he's got a bad knee. So that, that to me makes sense about the resistance on this number. But like I just said to me, that's another reason for me and you. I feel like we're getting great value on this line where it's just too much hype, too much love for a Washington team that has a couple little bit of a fluky. Fluky wins here. Now they're being praised as one of the best teams in the NFL.
- [18:14]
Chad Millman
Also going outside, it's a, it's just a different game for everybody when you're playing outside. And I'm not saying the commanders can't handle weather, they're an outdoor team. But when you're playing indoors and you go for it on fourth downs and you're going against a team that is playing basically second and third stringers across the board defensively, and you force some, some turnovers early in the game. You're just playing from a different point of view, a different perspective. This Philadelphia team, to me, I thought you nailed it. It's not really about Jalen Hurts. It's about the offensive line and the defensive line. And again, we talked about this on Tuesday. Sam Cosby not playing is kind of a big deal because the strength of this Philly defense is what they can do within the interior of the defensive line. Jalen Carter is amazing. He is like, he's Aaron Donald esque this year in his ability to control a game and impact the game as an interior defensive lineman. So like him coming up, the gut against Jaden Daniels is going to be really, really daunting. Especially in this kind of scenario. You got to like, yeah, you can't, you can't take that factor away.
- [19:40]
Minky Couture
And we also talked about the Eagles have not played their game yet. Like, they have not played a sound, perfect game like we were used to when they were rolling mid season. On the flip side, Washington's coming off, in my opinion, their best game of the season. Like going back and watching that game, every little thing they did kind of broke their way. The only really dumb mistake they made was that weird Mariota pitching, trying to pitch the ball back. And this is why I do give respect to Dan Quinn. He, he went to Kingsbury, whoever he went and talked to, and he just said, we're not taking the ball out of our best player's hand and losing this game. Again, like from now on a fourth down, no more bullshit, dumb gimmick plays. We're going to give the ball to Daniels only because that was the type of play where you're just like, you're overthinking it. Washington, what are you doing in this type of big moment? And you know, the rest of that game so sound and you know, like you just said, this Eagles game is outdoors. I have moved to the over. Originally. I liked the under in this matchup. I have flipped to the over and just because the number has moved too much and I, I basically have this total of 48 and a half. So it's only a point difference, right? Total right now is 47 and a half, still showing Valley to the over. And it really is all about what we just talked about, the weather. Now, if you live in the Northeast or just in America in general, we're in a deep freeze right now it's absolutely awful outside. It's like 10 degrees in most places. It's going to warm up by this week. I don't know if you saw Chad. It's supposed to be in the mid-40s come Sunday. Okay, so no snow, no rain, mid-40s. Like you just said, both these teams are from the same area. They're used to being out in this cold. I don't think it's going to affect the offenses like it did this past week with Eagles. I don't think we'll see as many drops from the Eagles and same from this Washington team. I think they'll be fine playing these elements, but like you just said, the difference will be Washington just played in Florida and then an indoor game against Detroit, like so this will be the first time they are out in the cold in the elements in the playoffs. And you know, we.
- [21:31]
Chad Millman
No, go ahead. Sorry.
- [21:32]
Minky Couture
No, no, go ahead.
- [21:34]
Chad Millman
The one thing that worries me is that this Eagles team is incredibly reliant on big plays, specifically big plays from Saquon. We saw it in the Rams game. Two huge touchdown runs. I was at that Eagles Commanders game in November where they were down most of the game and the only reason they won that game is because there were two long Saquon touchdown runs. That's kind of been the theme of the year we talked about. His rushing prop on Tuesday was 127 and a half. By the time we were off the show and we talked about this on air, it was already at 129 and a half. One other sportsbook, very public sports book, High Profile Sportsbook, yesterday announced that Saquon's rushing total at 130 is the highest rushing total they've ever had for a prop. Do we worry that this team is too reliant on big plays? Do we think big plays are predictive and are they something that you can count on or are they totally random and that skews our perception of the Eagles?
- [22:53]
Minky Couture
Yeah, I would say if you have the number one offensive line of football and All Pro and A.J. brown, then all pro and Saquon probably going to get big plays. I mean, that's just the honest truth. So I get where you're coming from. Yeah. Ideally, do I want the Eagles to drive the field and then all their red zone trips or touchdowns, that'd be great. But I mean, people keep pointing the fact that, oh, the Eagles haven't been great in the red zone. Even last week. Right. They. They struggled in the red zone. No, I don't really Mind that I don't worry about that stuff too much. Like, big plays can be inconsistent. If it's all wide receiver, that, that to me would be scary, right? If it was, if it was a Tyreek Hill type of deal where it's like, well, if we don't have Tyree Kill downfield, then our offense kind of stalls, right? We need to, we rely on those big plays to move the ball downfield. The Eagles aren't that. I mean, they just. The reason they have those big plays numbers is because they wear teams out. And eventually, like we talked about, Saquon gets these teams in the fourth quarter and that's when he breaks out for those long runs. So you know the stats we gave out on Tuesday about this Washington run defense and how bad they are in the second level, that just adds more fuel to the fire of this team. Going to be hitting big plays. I mean, it lines up for this Eagles team. So I told you my, my biggest worry here is going to be same thing we had when I was betting Washington against the Lions. It's, it's the fourth down regression. Like it's, we're at, we're, we're at our historical numbers at this point with the fourth down with this Washington team. And it did come to bite us like even that Bucks game, right? A couple failed fourth downs and that Lions game, we just talked about Mariota play there. There are opportunities for this Eagles team to get stops. And you know Dan Quinn, who's getting tons of praise right now, well deserved if he goes for it on his own 35 on fourth down, right? Say they're down seven in the second quarter and he goes for it there. Eagles stop them now, they're up 14. Will he look like an idiot or will just be like, no, this is who this guy's been all season. It's just been working. So that's, that's going to be interesting part here in this game. To me, it's going to be another game where if Daniels hits these fourth downs, yeah, they can stay in this game easily. I mean, we all know the, the track record of, you know, divisional opponents keeping games close in the spot. But when you really dive into the numbers, this, this would really be an embarrassing loss for the Eagles. Like all honesty, you are getting a rookie quarterback on a team that is basically in a rebuild season. The fact they come into your home stadium and win this playoff game would be shocking just because across the line, like we just talked about, the D line matches up incredibly against this of Washington Eagles Offensive line even more so. I mean, second level, all of it lines up really well. We give tons of credit, though, to Washington. Like Bobby Wagner, I've. He was left for dead. This man's come in and made a huge difference to this team. Zach Ertz, another guy left for dead, has come and made like veteran presence on this Washington team has been huge. It made these huge difference. So they do have guys who've played in these big games, these big moments. But this is an Eagles team that basically was in a Super bowl, you know, a year and a half ago. So it's like we've seen it time and time again in sports. Teams usually have to go through growing pains. And you expect Washington someday they'll get to this level, someday they will make a Super Bowl. It would be shocking for them to get there this early. Like they haven't gone through the pain that almost all teams need to go through to get to that next level. Even the all. God. We talk about Patrick Mahomes. He needed to lose to Brady at home and that AFC Championship game. Then he needed to lose in Super Bowl. I mean, he did win, obviously against 49ers, but then he needed to lose against Brady in the super bowl eventually. Like these, these great quarterbacks all go through it. We think Jane Daniels will eventually be one of these greats, but he has not gone through any pain yet. Right. It's all been good. That's why you watch tv. Everyone's just loving this team. Hype him up, making him a top five quarterback in this league. I mean, we. I still can't get over Chad. They're 16 to 1 next year in super bowl futures, this commander's team. So it just, it's all peaking right now. They're the darling of the NFL. They beat the one seed, a team that, you know, people thought were unbeatable. And on the flip side, this Eagles team, people have not believed them all the way. I mean, you can go through it. People picked the Rams to upset them just last week. Like, that was a big bet by a lot of people. And you know, when you really got dive into it, Eagles probably should have won against Green Bay by double digits. Should it be last week by double digits? Right. They just didn't think that things break their way. So it's, it's a unique opportunity to have a team like the Eagles be underrated, even though they've been one of the top three, top four best teams in football all season. So it is a unique position. Like me and Chad talked about this is it feels too easy. That's my fear here, Chad, where it's like right now I'm able to get, you know, in a teaser, I can get them down just to win this game. And I'm just shocked this has stayed under seven. And I do think it all comes back to the hurts, injury and the public and professional money coming in so heavy on this commander's team, where I'm shocked to see how much money is poured in on this team. Like, I really do think by the time we do the show, it'd be more balanced. It's still heavy towards commanders.
- [27:38]
Chad Millman
Jake, Elliot, do your job. Make the extra points. This line is six, right? We felt it last week. It pushed on six because Jake Elliott was missing extra points. Jake Elliott, do your job. That's all we're asking. Simon, did you know that inside every man, there are two wolves? Oh, one wolf represents darkness and despair, but the other wolf is relaxed and luxuriating in resplendent comfort because that wolf is decked out head to paw in the flexible breathability of Tommy John. You can only feed one wolf, Simon, so feed that comfortable wolf. The geniuses at Tommy John have mastered the art of comfort to see what thousands of five star reviewers are raving about. Howl with comfort at a wardrobe filled with Tommy John. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?
- [28:54]
Minky Couture
Because comfort is king. Woohoo.
- [29:02]
Chad Millman
It's my wolf howl right now. You can shop tommyjohn.com favorites and get 25 off your first order. Save time again. Save 25@tommyjohn.com favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorites I went. I went off script on Matt's read there. I hope he's okay with it. Did. What did you think of my howl?
- [29:27]
Minky Couture
I don't know what you're going for there. That was definitely not a wolf howl, though.
- [29:34]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one Mirabel trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you gonna find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but like all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff. Like, it's all colored. They changed it and the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest. It was a little pink.
- [30:18]
Minky Couture
There was something sentimental. When you, like when, when you send it, it's like, do I send the heart now?
- [30:24]
Bobby Bones
I don't like the color edition.
- [30:25]
Minky Couture
It's extremely pink.
- [30:27]
Bobby Bones
Listen to lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [30:34]
Justin Penick
What's going on, everybody? This is Justin Pennock from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast alongside Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We're rolling three times a week, on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays, breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're talking about the MVP race. Is Josh Allen going to pull it out? Lamar Jackson? Can Saquon Barkley even break the rushing record? Can the Steelers keep up their momentum? We talk about everything. We break it down. Stats, analytics. And of course, Chris Rose is bringing his perspective on being a pro in the media world as well. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did. Hope you could join us for the postseason run.
- [31:24]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [31:32]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst. And boy, oh, boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [31:41]
Adnan Virk
I love you, by the way, on NHL Network. We're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [31:49]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what? Tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [31:59]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're soon gonna find out we're not just hockey talk. We get all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear in NHL.
- [32:09]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Virky.
- [32:12]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burke and demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [32:25]
Michael Rapoport
Happy holidays from me, Michael Rapoport, and my gift to you is a free subscription to The Rapaport Stereo podcast where I discuss entertainment, sports, politics and anything and everything that catches my attention. I am here to call it as I see it. And there's a whole lot of things catching my eyes these days. Here's a clip from one of my favorite episodes. You are not a real fighter. You will never be discussed anywhere in boxing history, ever.
- [32:58]
Minky Couture
Fake Paul.
- [33:00]
Michael Rapoport
The movie is the Apprentice and the movie is about young Donald Trump and his apprentice, Roy Cohen. Real character, obviously both real characters. It kind of has a Scarface vibe to it, which I thought was very interesting. Listen to the I Am Rapaport Stereo podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast and wherever you get your podcast.
- [33:26]
Chad Millman
All right. Buffalo, Kansas city. Kansas City minus one and a half. The total's 47 and a half. This was Simon says the Chiefs on the money line is our exec decision taking a minute to get some traction. It's moving to two in some spots. You know, we'll have Matt Mitchell come on if he can promise to, you know, keep it, keep it tight. We're trying to keep the podcast less than four hours today because he came on before the show. I think this is why he's a little hot today because he said he bet an inordinate amount of money, an obscene amount of money on the Buffalo Bills. We obviously are both on the Chiefs here. I would like Matt Mitchell to come on as the resident Bills obsessive. He's an excellent better. He's not just a mediocre podcast producer and Bill's freak. He's an excellent better. So, Matt, you want to explain yourself why you're going against the hosts of the show?
- [34:26]
Matt Mitchell
Hi Chad, it's nice to be on. I hope you're well. I appreciate all the listeners and the outpouring of support following your incoherent and asinine breakdown of the your Chief's love last episode. I've realized that since the infamous 13 seconds game three years ago, I have done a very good job of locking my heart away and developing a thick candy shell so that I'm not as absolutely crushed by a loss in the playoffs as I was after that game. So that the the Bengals loss of the playoffs meant very little. Also, they just lost regular style, which is what I always ask of them. Even last week I felt more relief than joy in a victory that was very hard fought and one that I was consumed with dread leading up to it. And I'm realizing, Chad, that I'm not able to hit those. The high highs, the true mania of an incredible victory because I've been holding back and shielding myself and the time has finally come. I used to dance like everyone's watching and love like I'll always get hurt. But now I'm ready. I'm ready to get hurt. And I'm going to go into this game filled with optimism and excitement, ruthlessness that the Bills will leave Kansas City victorious. And I'm putting my money where my mouth is. And I'm disgusted with myself that I'd be saying this out loud to so many people. But I'm in. I'm fucking all in. I've heard enough. It's time for men of action to do just that. So go Bills.
- [36:06]
Chad Millman
That is a end of a rom com worthy soliloquy about your love and your willingness to expose yourself and be vulnerable this weekend. I believe it was Bob Scoochie who once said, when all hope is gone, all that's left is relief. Yeah, it might be something you were feeling at some point, and I'm glad that you are getting back to finding euphoria and joy as a sports fan. My Kansas City Chiefs take, which I know what you're referring to and listeners know what you're referring to, which you went after me for when I couldn't defend myself. You dropped it into the podcast on Tuesday is I'm rooting for history. I'm not saying I'm rooting for the thing that's never happened, which is to beat the Buffalo Bills, because the Buffalo Bills get beaten by everybody. My point was I want to see the three peat. That's what I'm rooting for. Matt Mitchell. I'm rooting for historical dominance of dynastic proportion.
- [37:12]
Matt Mitchell
The fucking Buffalo Bills have been playing fucking football for longer than there's been a Super bowl and they've had not won a Super Bowl. That is pretty goddamn historic. All you gotta say, Chad, all you gotta do is go into that fucking microphone and say, you know what? I'm rooting for the team that never loses, to not lose. I'm rooting for the team with the better coach. I'm rooting for the best quarterback to beat the second best quarterback. I'm rooting for the team that is favored to win the game at home here.
- [37:42]
Chad Millman
I'm rooting for the team that has the opportunity to win three straight Super Bowls. I'm rooting for the team that has a quarterback that has the opportunity to set standards that have never before been seen in the history of the NFL, which has been around longer than the Buffalo fucking Bills. So that's what I'm rooting for. That's the. See, I have the bigger picture. I think much bigger than you do, Matt. I'm not thinking myopically. I'm not thinking, oh, how does this all impact the tiny, cute little Paris of Western New York franchise Buffalo Bills? I'm thinking, how does this impact all of fandom? How does this impact sports history? Where does this put Patrick Mahomes in the legendary status of the greatest athletes and achievers who have ever lived? I'm not thinking, oh, does the team that always wins, are they going to win? That's not how I'm thinking about it, Chad.
- [38:41]
Matt Mitchell
Okay, listeners, I had you do a visualization exercise on Sunday. I want you to do another one again. Unless you're driving, keep your eyes open. Unless you're driving, close your eyes. I want you to picture Chad Norman walking into a beautiful, glittering casino. He's walking through the casino. He's going to the high roller room. He's walking through it. He's saying, no, no, you know what? I need to go to the. To the lowest limits. I want to see the biggest losers. I want to join them. He goes over to the biggest losers shoe a blackjack. And he sits down and they say, how much do you want? And he says, no chips for me. I'm here rooting for the dealer. And he has a little pennant that says, go Casino. That's what you're. That's the argument. You are making Go house money.
- [39:25]
Chad Millman
Matt and I have been at each other all morning because I asked a simple question in one of our slack channels. Simon, we're on the Chiefs. Go Chiefs. We love the Chiefs. Why am I worried about the Chiefs.
- [39:40]
Minky Couture
If we still have a producer? You got to cut that last 30 minutes. Unbelievable back and forth by Chad and Matt Mitchell. Holy shit. Yeah. My only question to Matt Mitchell is if you know what you're doing here. You're supposed to bet the Chiefs so you can actually win money. When your team loses, rather than you lose money and you are depressed for a year when your team loses and.
- [40:00]
Chad Millman
Nobody, nobody in your beautiful Milwaukee neighborhood.
- [40:03]
Minky Couture
Gets ice cream, you have no money left, right?
- [40:06]
Matt Mitchell
Imagine one guy rooting for the fucking casino and another guy with the most cowardly fucking approach in history. That's why we had this drop, which I'll play right now.
- [40:16]
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter, professional coward.
- [40:19]
Matt Mitchell
I would never hedge, emotionally or otherwise, but I wish you the best of luck.
- [40:24]
Minky Couture
No, I'm smart. I actually bet on my favorite team in August. Unlike Matt Mitchell, Here. Who bets on his favorite team now.
- [40:30]
Chad Millman
This is great.
- [40:33]
Minky Couture
Yeah. I don't sleep, I don't eat. I do nothing but think of you. Kansas City Chiefs. I just can't. I. I keep looking for ways to fade this Chiefs team, Chad. And we're here.
- [40:42]
Chad Millman
We.
- [40:42]
Minky Couture
We can't do. There's no reason not to bet this number. It's low. It's a great matchup for them. And we talked about this Bills team. It's been an incredible season. This is a team that had 30 million in dead cap for Stefan Diggs. They had 70 million in dead cap overall on this roster this season, people. That's insane. They're literally paying 70 million to guys who aren't even on this roster. And they are in the finals. The, the AFC finals. It's. I can't believe it. So this is a team that's overachieved all because they have the mutant that is Josh Allen. The greatest quarterbacks to play this game. Can you get over the hump, Chad? That's what everyone's betting on. The public has the same exact view as Matt Mitchell. Like they're coming in heavy on this bill's team, not because they're sick of the Chiefs, but they think this is the destiny. This is the year of Josh Allen and they're betting them hard. I mean, even the action app I'm looking at right now, 70%, 70% of the bets, 70% of the money right now are on the Buffalo Bills on the road in Kansas City. This is a team that was perfect at home, but they struggled on the road this season and the struggle on the road was their defense. It wasn't. Once again, wasn't. Josh Allen was the defense. So yeah, it's, it's interesting that people are so confidently betting a bad number on this Bills team where it's like this should be two and a half, three. They're happy to line up and take a bad number at one and a half or two. So yeah, like I said, bookmakers are happy. I'm extremely happy. It's a rare position to be in, Chad. We're basically on a Chiefs team that the public is doubting. And it's the exact scenario that happened last year. The, the, the Chiefs, people forget were a five or four point dog at the Ravens last year. They got up to five and a half before kickoff. Five and a half dog. No one was betting the Chiefs. That line was running up. Even the Action app, I believe it was less than 20 of the bets. 20% of the money. Around the Chiefs in that exact spot, they rolled that Ravens team and that's, that's literally what this exact scenario is playing out right here. People are doubting, not believing the Chiefs team, betting the other side. And yeah, you can wave your hands and try to act like no one believes in us. If you're the Bills, people do. That's just not true. You guys are the darling favorite right now of the league, just like the commander. So I, I love our position that we're in. The Chiefs, to me, are the better team across the board in every position except the. The strongest part of this Bills team obviously is Josh on that offensive line. And that to me is our only fear here, Chad. If the Chiefs can't stop the run, we're done here. Because the, the Bills have evolved. They're a different team now. They play smart, they don't turn over. If we can get a lead with this Chiefs team, have to make Josh Allen drop back a ton and throw the ball a lot. That, to me, is how the Chiefs can come out on top in this one. Because we know the weakness of this Bills team. They don't have receivers. Like, they got rid of their two top dogs and he's just throwing in nameless guys, right? I mean, Amari Cooper, who they traded for, he's been non existent since they got him. Like this just. It's not great. And you know, like I said, incredible run by this, this Bills team, but they've run into a juggernaut that's not going to lose this game. Like the Ravens kind of lost that game last week. Let's. Let's be honest here. The Ravens beat themselves. I'd be shocked if the Chiefs beat themselves in this matchup at home. And we've seen the stats from Evan. When it's cold below 40 degrees in Arrowhead in the playoffs, this is when you want to back Mahomes. He just lives up to these moments to the exact spot. So yeah, I really can't believe we're only getting. We're getting minus one and a half with the Chiefs at home in this spot and no one's betting them. It's. It really is shocking right now looking at that metric and seeing that we are on the team that no one believes in and they're a home favorite. So yeah, obviously you can tell Chad feeling pretty confident about this Chief side.
- [44:12]
Chad Millman
There is a better. According to Patrick Everson, who placed a $1.3 million bet on the Chiefs to win the game just on the money line. I'll reiterate Patrick Mahomes in November, December, January, when it's 40 degrees or less, 23 two straight up, he's won 20 in a row. His last loss was to Tom Brady in 2019. The only fear here is Josh Allen and he's so good at avoiding sacks. And the Chiefs pressure as much as George Carloftis has been amazing on the edge recently. Their pressure is Chris Jones on the inside unless he is moving himself to the edges. But when Josh Allen gets flushed, he is very hard to sack. Like so difficult to put into plays behind the sticks. Right. That, that to me is like the biggest fear is every time he rolls out. I get, I get a little nervous when I'm betting against Josh Allen. But I think to your point, teams are not the same when they play the Chiefs in the playoffs, that they are throughout the year because they're not thinking, oh, I have many, many series in which to make up for any mistakes. Every series is so critical. You get tighter when you think you can't make a mistake. And everyone believes they cannot make a mistake against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. He's that magical, he's that awesome. I think that has a real impact in these games that just doesn't get accounted for in the spread. I don't know if you feel the same way I do.
- [46:03]
Minky Couture
And I also think it's another reason why I love the under here where it's like both these teams are going to play super slow and conservative and just eat the clock up because they have the same view we have. Keep the offense off the field like that. That's how you're going to win this game right now. Let the other team get in their rhythm. So coming into it, I think both game plans are going to be run heavy and you know, we talk a little bit about Matt Milano. That's a big X factor for this Bill's defense. I know that yesterday he was limited with a hamstring. So you know, great that it' a knee, terrible that it's a hamstring. Like you don't want a guy to have hamstring issues heading into a game. Like you just said, it's going to be below 40 degrees. That's not ideal, especially for such an important defender. That's, you know, an older guy, Matt Milano in this spot. So yeah, that's, it's I, I, I was really trying to be on the Bills, honestly, Jack, coming into it because I just, I love this team and their story, but to me it was all about the number and it never got to where I felt comfortable that this would be a good Bills line to bet. Like it never got to two and a half three. And it's what we just talked about. They are beloved right now by the public and there's plenty of smart professional money out there coming in heavy on them as well. So I'm not trying to have people overthink this year. You're getting very unique opportunity. You have two home favorites that the public doesn't really believe in and you're getting good number on both of them. So I like this position we're in. It doesn't feel like it was, you know, in other years where everyone's just hammering these one or number one or number two seeds. This is a unique season where people don't believe in this one or two seed. People believe in the road dogs. And the money you can follow it, it says that they believe in them. So it's gonna be interesting by game time, see if the it comes on the other side. If you know, the professional public money does show up on the Chiefs of the Eagles because right now, this early money, it is without a doubt on these road dogs.
- [47:50]
Chad Millman
So interesting how people's perceptions can be changed by how brilliant just the quarterbacks are, right? Josh Allen and Jaden Daniels have been much better players this year than Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. And it has put us in a position. You are 100% right. I don't think we've ever had an experience where we both like a home favorite that are the higher seeds, that none of the public wants to bet. Like, it's, it's, it's such a, it's a different position for us entirely. But like you said, we're all over the Eagles. We're all over the Chiefs. Really important stuff. And by the way, one more, one more injury report. Taylor Rapp, safety, did not practice for the Bills yesterday. He's got that hip injury that could be significant. You mentioned Milano. He was limited in practice. We saw what a difference he made for the Bills against the Ravens last week. Christian Benford, the cornerback, had a concussion last week, was limited in practice, which could be a good sign because it means he got back on the field. It's one of the first steps you have to make to get through the concussion protocol. So those are the latest updates. No real injuries of note for the Chiefs. Okay. To hedge or not to hedge. So I got these questions on Twitter. Before the season began, we each gave out future bets we liked, including super bowl matchups. Mine was Amongst many Chiefs vs Eagles in the Super Bowl. Every year I do a matchup round robin in which I bet the teams whose preseason super bowl odds are 12 to 1 or shorter. It's a bet that Evan tipped me off to in his preseason story last year. Heading into last year, it was 9 of 10. Matchups had been from teams that had odds of 12 to win or shorter. Last year, it happened again. The Chiefs and Eagles were both in this group. Their odds to meet in the super bowl preseason were 28 to 1. I bet that I have that existing before we go to Simons, whose bet is even more exciting because people like to say, no, you didn't really do that, Gifford. Let's go to the video evidence.
- [50:07]
Minky Couture
My finals Chiefs winning over the Eagles once again in the super bowl to win three straight. And you can get that right now at 55 to 1 on bet365. Chiefs beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl. I just think it's there. They're both going to be the one seeds if they're both at home. Like, if the lines got to come to Philadelphia in mid January, if Purdy has to come to Philadelphia mid January, I just think the Eagles should win that game. The only hesitation I just talked about is the Rams. Like, I think of all the guys that wouldn't be phased about that kind of environment is Stafford. But, yeah, I have the Eagles winning it. Them versus the Chiefs. The Chiefs winning the Eagles in the Super Bowl. It's just. Chad knows I love Ben on history. I want to be part of history. It's just. It's one of my favorite things. And this is the team to do it. Like, it's just the. The super bowl team always gets a little weaker. I mean, we're seeing it right now. The 49ers. Look at all that drama they're having to deal with.
- [50:58]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Yeah.
- [50:58]
Minky Couture
The Chiefs just aren't that team. And they don't. They don't lose any coordinators. Like, it's just all there. So the boring bet. I know, but Chiefs win the Super Bowl. That's where I'm going, Chad.
- [51:10]
Chad Millman
All right. It's so fun to go back and listen to that because you were spot on about so many things. Not just the Chiefs, like, in their opportunity, but the way you nailed the Eagles after they had come off a down year, talking about the Rams having to go to Philly being off the Niners. Brilliant, brilliant stuff. We've all seen your ticket. We know it is a significant, significant amount of money. And that's Just one ticket you have. I know you've got several. On this particular matchup. Chiefs beating the Eagles. A couple of our listeners sent me notes. I'm going to read the excerpts of one because it is representative of everything I'm currently sitting on a Super bowl futures. Chiefs beating Eagles and Eagles beating Chiefs each are one unit bets. Chiefs win pays out 56 units. As you noted, Simon, we had it at 55 to 1. Eagles pays out 67 book is offering a cash out of 20.5 units. I've thought about letting the Eagles game ride and if they win, betting 28 units on the Bills to cover. Also have considered cashing. What strategies would you guys consider? So basically that covers everything, right? That covers a cash out. You and I and Evan talked a little bit about this on Tuesday after the show, talking about waiting to see what happens in the first game and if the Eagles win hedging the second game. How will you be handling any hedging this weekend?
- [52:40]
Minky Couture
Yeah. So off the top, everyone should know every person is unique and has their own life going on with your own going on your own life and you need to plan accordingly. With these type of bets. If you are in that position that you need this money, if you need this money, cash it out. Like go ahead, who cares? Cash it out. Take that money. You can, you made a great bet that the books are begging you to take their money because they are terrified that you're gonna hit this bet and they don't want to pay it out. So if you do need the money, cash it out. If you're building a bankroll and you don't have any money to hedge it, you're in that type of spot. Cash it out. There's nothing wrong with that. Now someone like me, there, there, there is no reason to cash out. Like I'm of course going to let this ride and it's from the perspective of it's a bit I trusted and it basically came all to exactly what I predicted. These two teams would be at home in this position to win. The math is telling you this is a good spot to be in and I'm in a unique spot where I really only bet on these two teams for super bowl futures. Like I had, I think I had two different bets on the Rams from when I thought it was really stupid, but I basically thought they were open up cap space to have a big signing. They were actually paying out Aaron Donald to retire. So that was a futures bet I did make on the Rams. But other than that, my two heaviest bets Were what people just heard in the clip were basically the Chiefs and the Eagles. And now I'm in the spot. Where could I hedge on the commanders? Yes. I think commanders right now are plus 700 to make the super bowl. But I wouldn't do that. Especially if you're anyone else out there. This is not the spot to hedge. I think this guy talking about hedging the next game, that's the spot. Like if you want to take a position to hedge out, do that on the Bills. You can either do it on their super bowl future. You can either do it taking their number. You could. I mean if you're going really balls, you throw them in a seven and a half up to seven and a half, put them with the Eagles, take the Eagles down to a pick because again, it's historical. If Eagles don't win in this spot, it's. It's a really good spot to be playing a rookie at home. So there's a bunch of different ways you can approach it. I honestly think if you, if you're able to people I'd let her ride. Like you made a great bet. That's why the books are trying to give you a cash out. Like I never cash out. Because if the books are offering you a cash out one they're gonna under. They're getting to give you a bad price. They're not going to pay you out what they should be paying you. And it also just shows that they're terrified because they don't want to cash out. People like that is not the business they're in. They're. They're in the business of taking your money. So. So the fact they're even giving you that big of an option shows how terrified they are. So yeah, I would pat myself on the back. People out there, if you had the balls to take it in August at 55 to 1 or 50 to 1 and I'd let it ride. But if you want to take a position, hedge out of it. I wouldn't do on the Eagles game. I would do on the Bills game because to me that's, that's the game that's truly a coin flip. That Bills game. Like none of us will be shocked Sunday night if the Bills fall off.
- [55:27]
Chad Millman
That upset Simon Hunter, professional coward.
- [55:31]
Minky Couture
I would be shocked if the commanders pulled it off. So to me that that's where the value is right now. If you're trying to hedge it. And obviously if you get to the super bowl even more, even easier to take a position. You just basically will put half the money on the Eagles because they will be an underdog. I don't know if this is true but from my lines I do have the Eagles and underdog to the Chiefs or the Bills. I'm positive the books will follow suit. Like they're just, that's just the way it usually is. Usually AFC is going to get the respect in this type of spot. So yeah, if you do want to be patient, I think you'll get a nice opportunity in the Super Bowl. But yeah, Chad film film pretty good. I basically have somewhere around 5k invested in the Chiefs to beat the eagles to win 300k. And obviously people know I'm an Eagles fan. I have a ton of money invested in the Eagles super bowl future. So yeah, no bets. I've seen the commanders. No one saw this coming and I was, I talked about coming to the year. I, I did doubt the Bills did not see this type of run happen happening. So have no money invested and I would need to hedge out if I had to in that game against the Chiefs. But like I just said, I'm gonna let it ride. I'm confident in our position and I love our bets right now.
- [56:37]
Chad Millman
So if you want to let, if you want to hedge in that second game, if you've got the Eagles and the Eagles make it and you want to hedge on the, on the Bills in that second game in a matchup again because you have the Chiefs against the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Evan is also really good at this stuff, so maybe we can bring him in in a second. I'm going to ask him his opinion too. What's your normal hedging strategy? Do you bet half a unit on the team so you can recover half of the winnings that you would have otherwise had? Even if you bet half a unit, you're still going to be way ahead on whatever you put in for the futures. Most people aren't putting in a full unit when they're betting on futures at long odds. So what would you as an amount tend to bet if you were to hedge in the second game?
- [57:24]
Minky Couture
Once again, it's tough because it's about your confident level. I mean you have a 55 to 1 ticket, so I would view it as a minimum 5 to 8 units on the Bills. Like you want, you want to make some good money here. And even if that doesn't hit, you still leave yourself a huge ticket for that super bowl future. So it all depends your position. Like I said, if, if you do just want to recoup your, your losses, you could do what Chad just talked about. You could just put one unit on it, like play it safe because you are confident. But you want to make sure you at least get that money back that you invested way back in August. But to me, I'm all about turning profits. So at minimum I would say two to three units on the Bills because you want to make some money on, which is a great play. It's like you deserve that reward. You deserve to get a nice kickback for that. And that's what I'm saying with people that don't have that, that type of money put down or they're not confident it hit that cash out button. Like you're getting paid out a nice, a nice penny here for a bet you made. So there's just so many ways you can attack it. But yeah, for me personally, I want to, I want to get some money back that I made good, good bet on. So I, I would definitely go three to four or five units on it just so I can get a nice hit with. Even if I do lose that bet and like we've done before, you can find a middle. That's why, you know, it sucks that it's dropped back down from two, but if this got up to two and a half, three, you're getting a really nice chance to hit a middle with that Bills number, which again, that's, that's a position we want to be in. We want to, we want to have a middle spot. But I think the books are wise to it. They're not really going above that two number.
- [58:51]
Chad Millman
Super bowl futures Eagles plus 175 Chiefs plus 220 Bills plus 230 Commanders plus 750. Any worthwhile investment here. I was leaning to playing the Chiefs at plus 220 just because obviously we like them to get to the Super Bowl. They're not going to have those kind of odds when they get there. I probably like them to win the super bowl, so I feel like I'm getting the best number on the Chiefs over the, that I'm going to get over the next two and a half weeks.
- [59:26]
Minky Couture
Yeah. So basically the way to go about this is if you have no futures, if you're just looking for an opinion on who we think is going to the Super Bowl, I think me and Chad are both in agreeance. We think it's going to be the chief Chiefs. Like, it just, it feels lined up for them. They have the perfect team put together right now. The way they play, even if it is the Eagles or Commanders, I think they Match up well against both of them and you know, you can shop around. Right now there are, there are a couple of plus 200twies, couple plus 200twenties out there on them to win the Super Bowl. At this point, the Chiefs, that's basically you get in a line of their money line as if they were a four, four and a half point dog. So that to me is great value on the Bills and the Chiefs. Like if you like the AFC side, you're getting great value because I just told you my model has the Eagles as the dog against the Bills and the Chiefs. So in my view of it, if you're trying to play that type of number two to one on the Chiefs or the Bills against the Eagles, that's really, really nice future to get. So that's one way to play it. But like I said, I'm already heavy invested so I'm not doing anything. But in my opinion, I think there's still value on this Chiefs team. Like you know, you're getting them as if they're a four and a half dog against the Eagles where we know they're most likely going to be a favorite. So to me that, that's where my, my eyes go where I, I saw that number. I was like, oh my God, it's above 200. Again, it's just because the Bills and the Chiefs are playing each other. But still that's tremendous value against an Eagles team that, you know, we all know they're just the favor just because it's, it's more likely they get there not because they're better than the Bills of the Chief. So that, that to me is a horrible number to bet. If you're taking Eagles, the way to go is either take the Chiefs or the Bills.
- [60:59]
Chad Millman
Excellent, excellent questions for my users and breakdown. Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting? Simon knows I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell you about Edge Boost, the financial platform that pays you cash back to wager. Edgeboost is an online bank account that pays you for every deposit. With the Edge Boost Visa debit card, you receive up to half a percent cash back on all your sportsbook, daily fantasy site and casino transactions. That's free money back in your pocket for doing what you're already doing. It's a no brainer. Plus, your Edge Boost debit card starts with a $250,000 daily limit and will never be declined for gambling activity. They've got built in tools to help you stay responsible. And there are absolutely no hidden fees or minimum required balances. So stop leaving money on the table. Visit edgeboost BET today to learn more and sign up. That's edgeboost bet.
- [62:13]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else you can find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your baseball basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but, like, all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like, it's all colored. They changed it and the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest. It was a little pink.
- [62:57]
Minky Couture
There was something sentimental when you, like, when you send it, it's like, do I send the heart now?
- [63:03]
Bobby Bones
I don't like the color edition.
- [63:04]
Minky Couture
It's extremely pink.
- [63:06]
Bobby Bones
Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [63:12]
Justin Penick
What's going on, everybody? This is Justin Pennock from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast alongside Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We're rolling three times a week, on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays, breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're talking about the MVP race. Is Josh Allen going to pull it out? Lamar Jackson? Can Saquon Barkley even break the rushing record? Can the Steelers keep up their momentum? We talk about everything. We break it down. Stats, analytics. And of course, Chris Rose is bringing his perspective on being a pro in the media world as well. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you you get your podcast and you will be glad you did. Hope you could join us for the postseason run.
- [64:03]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Vir here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [64:11]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst. And boy, oh, boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [64:19]
Adnan Virk
I love you. By the way, on NHL Network. We're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [64:28]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture and you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [64:38]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're going to soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We get all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, restaurants, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear in NHL.
- [64:47]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Ferkey.
- [64:51]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burkin demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [65:04]
Michael Rapoport
Happy holidays from me, Michael Rappaport, and my gift to you is a free subscription to the imraport Stereo podcast where I discuss entertainment, sports, politics, and anything and everything that catches my attention. I am here to call it as I see it. And there's a whole lot of things catching my eyes these days. Here's a clip from one of my favorite episodes. You are not a real fighter. You will never be discussed anywhere in boxing history.
- [65:36]
Bobby Bones
Ever.
- [65:37]
Minky Couture
Fake Paul.
- [65:39]
Michael Rapoport
The movie is the Apprentice and the movie is about young Donald Trump and his apprentice, Roy Cohen. Real character, obviously both real characters. It kind of has a Scarface vibe to it, which I thought was very interesting. Listen to the I Am Rapaport Stereo podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, and wherever you get your podcast.
- [66:04]
Chad Millman
All right, I know the answer to this. Simon's biggest bets. Chiefs. Chiefs. Chiefs.
- [66:12]
Michael Rapoport
God damn it.
- [66:13]
Minky Couture
God damn it. Oh.
- [66:17]
Chad Millman
Eagles, Eagles, Eagles. Am I right?
- [66:21]
Minky Couture
Yeah. And I love the totals too on the. On the Eagles over on the Chiefs under. I believe Chiefs are Chiefs. Under is still 47 and a half.
- [66:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [66:30]
Minky Couture
Still like the value there. Still would take that under and the Eagles over. I. I could see it moving as they get closer to the game. Right now it's still 47 and a half. I could usually see that get up to 48. 48, which that's where I got it modeled at. I think there's still value on the over and you know, my view of it is what me and Chad kind of talked about there where, you know, Eagles are a big play offense and there's a high variance right now on this commander's team. Them going for a fourth down and I just don't see many, many threes being Kicked in this game. Even the Eagles don't really trust their kicker right now. So it feels like Washington Eagles easily could turn into a shootout. And that Chiefs Bills game, both sides wanted to be boring. Want to take long, slow drives. And it's. It's basically bumped up just because of the names, right? It's Mahomes versus Allen. We're getting probably two to three free points because people are still living in 2022, 2021. Like, these are not those same teams. And it's. It's not winning football. We've seen that the NFL has shifted now where it's the three, the three. I mean, you can even say commanders. Like the four best teams left all go for the more. The most and most successfully on fourth down. And they all have good, strong run games. So we've definitely seen a shift Chad in the NFL and that plays into this Chiefs Bills game. I just. I like that under there. So, yeah, both favorites. And then an over and under. Pretty. Pretty simple. When all hope is lost, all that's left is released. Let's play scooch roulette.
- [67:57]
Chad Millman
Scooter let. Last week, you had Buffalo. I had Baltimore. I feel like we're gonna end up on the same teams as we.
- [68:05]
Minky Couture
Nah. Well, you can go first. You pick. I'll go there, and I'll go a different team.
- [68:09]
Chad Millman
Well, I want the Chiefs.
- [68:10]
Minky Couture
Yeah, I'll go Eagles then.
- [68:12]
Chad Millman
All right.
- [68:13]
Minky Couture
Hey, ain't nobody trying to hear that.
- [68:16]
Chad Millman
All right, before we get out of here, let's welcome in our direct. You're so magnanimous. You're feeling so good this week. You're unlike Matt Mitchell, who's like, says he's free and happy and, you know, just joy.
- [68:26]
Minky Couture
I've never seen him more unhinged.
- [68:28]
Chad Millman
Dancing like no one's watching. And yet we're seeing him come in. Seven years of knowing him.
- [68:35]
Minky Couture
Yeah.
- [68:36]
Chad Millman
I've never seen him this unhinged.
- [68:37]
Minky Couture
Go outside, nerd.
- [68:39]
Simon Hunter
Get out.
- [68:40]
Minky Couture
Go.
- [68:41]
Chad Millman
I ain't got time to be distracted.
- [68:42]
Simon Hunter
By your worthless chime in.
- [68:44]
Minky Couture
It's gone.
- [68:44]
Simon Hunter
You better tell this some to walk the out right now.
- [68:47]
Minky Couture
Are we done for the day? Go.
- [68:50]
Chad Millman
Before we get out of here, let's welcome in our director of research, Evan Abrams. For the final word. Tell me something, Evan. Make me feel good. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.
- [69:04]
Simon Hunter
To be fair, for people who have known Matt Mitchell for as long as you and I have, I mean, this is the closest he's ever been to the promised land. Like, this is actually the closest like 13 seconds and the whole thing. Yeah, this is the Bills team that isn't turning it over. It's playing safe football. It's doing exact, exactly what they need to do to get there. So I think he's unhinged because he's never been this nervous in his life.
- [69:25]
Chad Millman
I'd like to see on Sunday night if they just lose regular. Correct how he's feeling when we got to record the podcast. Yeah, he barely made it onto the show last Sunday.
- [69:37]
Simon Hunter
I mean, he's not showing up the place and then he's showing up early and screaming at everyone. It's been, it's been wonderful to answer some of your questions from earlier. There are hypothetical lines out for the super bowl right now. So, yeah, like Casey and Buffalo about four and a half point favorites over Washington in both situations. And Casey, Buffalo both about one and a half favorites over Philly.
- [70:00]
Minky Couture
That's right.
- [70:00]
Simon Hunter
At this point, the interesting thing about the look ahead lines, Buffalo, Washington total is 53 and a half, which is fun. Everything, everything else is kind of in order. All right, so I'll give you a few stats for some of these games. You guys had talked about the Chiefs and some of the advantages they have. Well, they have another advantage if you watch the games last weekend they played the first game of the weekend, they played on Saturday while Buffalo played the last game of the weekend. So Chiefs actually do have a full day rest and prep advantage against Buffalo in this one. So Andy Reid in his career, 45 and 12 straight up Chiefs and Eagles, when coaching a game on extended prep time more than a full week while his opponent is on normal or less when that game is at home, he's 317 with Mahomes. Reed is 20 and three in that spot and 141 at home with the rest advantage. So let's talk about the other thing I was going to mention is this. Casey's bet percentage. Now depending on the book at action, we do like a consensus percentage. Right now it's in about the low 30s which would be one of the lowest of his career. So Buffalo definitely getting some love in this game. And let's turn our attention now to Washington and Philly. So yeah, Washington is a six point underdog, but they feel like a bit of a different six point underdog. And especially this year because of their scoring, they are averaging 29.1 points per game including the playoffs. Since the merger, only the 20142015 packers behind Aaron Rodgers averaged 29 points per game or more and were this high of an underdog. In the conference championship, they closed plus eight and a half against Seattle. In that game, they actually led 19, 7, lost 28, 22. They did cover the spread means very little. I think the thing I'm trying to prove here is that Washington is kind of an enigma. Like, they're honestly a team from a scoring point of view, from the fact that they have a rookie head coach, you know, a new one for Washington and an actual rookie quarterback. So I just think they're a little bit messing with the models because of their offense. And then I'll give you this last note, pure from BET Labs. But Commanders had no playoff experience, didn't make it last year. While the Eagles, they've got a decent amount of playoff experience being to the super bowl, and obviously they were there last year. So teams who didn't make the playoffs the year prior are 7 and 10 against the spread versus a team who did in the conference championship dating back to 2004, when the spread is over a field goal, they are 19 straight up and 4 and 6 against the spread. Now, the one upset Joe Burrow and the Bengals over the Chiefs in 2022, that took momes home and took them to the Super Bowl. So the numbers aren't fantastic for Daniels, but who the heck cares at this point? I mean, he's won twice his underdogs and now he's an underdog again. That's only happened once where you've won all three games in the playoffs as an underdog to get to the Super Bowl 2008 Giants. So we will see what type of history Washington makes on Sunday.
- [72:56]
Minky Couture
My favorite Daniel stat is in nine season, Dak Prescott, two playoff wins, Jane Daniels, one season, two playoff wins. I love the troll.
- [73:04]
Chad Millman
Well, look, it's very possible he's just a cheat code that can't really be accounted for.
- [73:09]
Minky Couture
Yeah.
- [73:09]
Chad Millman
And. And we're having all these conversations about it and in the end of the day, he's. He's Mahomes asking what he can do on the field. That disc, you have to discount every other element of the game. What was that stat that Andy Reid with Patrick Mahomes is 20 and three straight up with an extra day of rest.
- [73:29]
Simon Hunter
It's just a rest advantage. Yeah. So when they have eight or more, so like more than a full week and the opponent is normal or less. So seven or less, 20 and three with Mahomes 14 and one at home. When I say 14 and one, though, though I. In my brain, I'm saying to myself, who was the loss? I honestly can't remember, but I have to look it up.
- [73:47]
Minky Couture
You know it's gonna be the Raiders.
- [73:49]
Simon Hunter
It's always Raiders or Tom Brady, which is now the same thing. So which is funny.
- [73:55]
Chad Millman
That is funny. Thank you, Evan. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or 1-800- bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will be back with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page later than usual this Sunday. Sunday night after the Chiefs Bills game to recap both conference championship games and get an early look at the Super Bowl. Downloads from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate, Review, Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love Action Network reminds you, Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [75:20]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,005 500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing With a Star. So where else you can find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [75:50]
Justin Penick
What's up everyone? It's Justin Penick from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bob Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week, on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did.
- [76:21]
Adnan Virk
What'S up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast class. It's NHL Unscripted with Virgin Demers, Jason Demers here.
- [76:27]
Jason Demers
And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [76:32]
Adnan Virk
I got a lot to say here, too.
- [76:33]
Minky Couture
Okay.
- [76:33]
Adnan Virk
Each week we'll get together and chat about the sport that we love.
- [76:36]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in, too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le table.
- [76:45]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Vir and Demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [76:53]
Minky Couture
$1.4 billion in NFL quarterback contracts. The untold stories behind the biggest deals in football history.
- [77:01]
Bobby Bones
I'm A.J.
- [77:01]
Minky Couture
Stevens, Vice President of client strategy at Athletes first, introducing the Athletes First Family.
- [77:06]
Chad Millman
Podcast, the Quarterback series.
- [77:09]
Minky Couture
My co host, Brian Murphy, Athletes first CEO, and I are sitting down with the agents who have negotiated contracts for Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Tua Tugovailoa, and Jordan Love. Listen to Athletes First Family Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.