The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 14

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 14"

Release Date: December 5, 2024

Introduction

In this episode of The Favorites, presented by bet365 and part of the Volume podcast network, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve into the top NFL betting opportunities for Week 14. Broadcasting live from Chad’s home studio, the duo offers their expert opinions, strategies, and insights into the most promising bets, backed by professional analysis and personal experiences.

Chad Millman's Duke Game Experience [02:15 – 06:20]

Chad kickstarts the episode by sharing an exhilarating personal story about attending the Auburn vs. Duke game, orchestrated by entrepreneur Kenny Dichter. Millman describes the exclusive experience, highlighting the premium seating and the electrifying atmosphere created by passionate fans and intense gameplay.

Key NFL Games and Betting Insights

1. Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets [12:32 – 17:00]

   Chad and Simon focus on the Dolphins taking a six-point favorite against the struggling Jets. Millman criticizes the Jets' inconsistency and poor performance, emphasizing their defense's ineffectiveness:

   Chad Millman [12:45]: “It's a bad team with an old quarterback who's a mobile, who now is going on, you know, McAfee and saying, we don't have anything to prove.”

   Simon concurs, pointing out the Jets' accountability issues and leveraging Miami's strong offensive capabilities under Tua Tagovailoa.

2. Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles [17:55 – 22:52]

   The hosts discuss Carolina’s hefty 12.5-point underdog rating against the Eagles, questioning the validity of such a large spread in a divisional matchup. They analyze the Eagles' defensive strengths and Carolina's offensive weaknesses, debating whether the Panthers can outperform expectations despite their subpar record.

3. Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers [53:32 – 58:21]

   Highlighting the intense rivalry game, Chad and Simon examine the Rams’ and 49ers' current forms. They express skepticism about the 49ers' internal issues and overall team morale, which could impact their performance against a resurging Rams squad.

4. Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers [54:32 – 62:56]

   The discussion shifts to the AFC North showdown, where the Browns, led by quarterback Justin Fields, face the Steelers. Millman advocates for backing Cleveland, citing their improved offense and Pittsburgh's defensive lapses:

   Simon Hunter [57:58]: “This is another number that I think professional money will come in. I think it'll be driven down.”

5. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers [43:02 – 47:54]

   Analyzing the Chiefs' home advantage and Chargers' offensive struggles, the hosts debate the viability of betting on Kansas City despite some concerns over injuries and offensive line issues. They discuss Justin Herbert’s performance fluctuations and the impact of defensive pressures on quarterback play.

Betting Strategies and Professional Insights

Chad and Simon delve into their betting philosophies, emphasizing the importance of sticking to disciplined strategies and not getting swayed by public sentiment. They highlight the necessity of understanding team dynamics, player performances, and underlying statistics before placing bets. Notable strategies discussed include:

• Value Betting: Identifying games where the spread offers favorable odds based on team performance versus bookmaker expectations.
• Contrarian Betting: Going against the public majority when data suggests otherwise, particularly in high-stakes games.
• Bankroll Management: Maintaining a disciplined approach to betting to ensure long-term sustainability and profitability.

Promotions and Upcoming Events

The hosts announce their upcoming Favorites podcast Watch Party scheduled for December 12th at the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia. They encourage listeners to RSVP for an evening filled with live analysis, free drinks, and exclusive merchandise giveaways.

Additionally, they promote their sponsors, including Tommy John and Game Time, highlighting special offers and discounts available to listeners.

Conclusion and Final Recommendations

As the episode draws to a close, Chad and Simon recap their top betting picks for Week 14, urging listeners to consider the insights discussed when placing their wagers. They emphasize the evolving nature of sportsbook lines and the importance of staying informed through continuous research and professional analysis.

Chad Millman [62:56]: “We're betting what we see which is fading Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers and aged quarterbacks who come off Achilles injuries.”

The hosts wrap up with a final reminder to gamble responsibly, underscoring the thrill and risks associated with sports betting.

Notable Quotes:

• Chad Millman [12:45]: “It's a bad team with an old quarterback who's a mobile, who now is going on, you know, McAfee and saying, we don't have anything to prove.”
• Simon Hunter [17:58]: “This is another number that I think professional money will come in. I think it'll be driven down.”
• Simon Hunter [57:58]: “This is another number that I think professional money will come in. I think it'll be driven down.”

Final Thoughts

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter offer a comprehensive and engaging analysis of Week 14 NFL betting opportunities, blending personal anecdotes with professional insights. Their disciplined approach to betting and emphasis on data-driven strategies provide valuable guidance for both novice and seasoned bettors. This episode serves as an essential listen for anyone looking to enhance their sports betting acumen and capitalize on the week’s most promising NFL matchups.

Transcript

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

Thursday Night Football is on, and it's only on Prime Video.

[Chad Millman]

Good move. Touchdown.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

This week, west coast rivals collide as the Los Angeles Rams visit the San Francisco 49ers.

[Simon Hunter]

Heck of a throw.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

Coverage begins with TNF tonight. Not a Prime member. Sign up for a 30 day free trial to stream the game. It's the Rams and 49ers Thursday only on Prime Video. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com amazonprime for details.

[Justin Jefferson]

Where'd you get those shoes? Easy. They're from dsw. Because DSW has the exact right shoes for whatever you're into right now. You know, like the sneakers that make office hours feel like happy hour, the boots that turn grocery aisles into runways, and all the styles that show off the many sides of you, from daydreamer to multitasker and everything in between. Because you do it all in really great shoes. Find a shoe for every you at your DSW store or dsw.com what's good Justin Jefferson here.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

Football is a lot of explosions, a lot of energy and attitude with these open earbuds. To have good sound and to be so light on your ear, it's like a dream.

[Chad Millman]

For more, check out Bose.com Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

With the price of just about everything.

[Chad Millman]

Going up during inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a.

[Evan Abrams]

Thing Mint Mobile Unlimited Premium Wireless 3030.

[Simon Hunter]

Bid to get 302020 bid to get 2020 get 151515 15.

[Evan Abrams]

Just 15 bucks a month.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

Sold.

[Chad Millman]

Give it a [e-mail] Switch $45 upfront.

[Justin Jefferson]

Payment equivalent to $15 per month.

[Cindy Crawford]

New customers on first 3 month plan only.

[Justin Jefferson]

Taxes and fees extra speeds lower above 40 gigabytes.

[Chad Millman]

You detailed.

[Simon Hunter]

Hey, what's up guys? I'm Nick Chubb, running back for the Cleveland Browns. The holidays get really busy for me, but I still want to pull up to events looking nice. Abercrombie's latest job of party looks is taking me through the season for dinner with the fam, drinks with the guys, and even New Year's Eve. They have outfits for every occasion. I'm mainly a jeans and T Sh, but Abercrombie has the dressier fits that keep me comfortable. Shop Abercrombie for every night out.

[Chad Millman]

Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John home studio and I'm joined as always by my co Host, my companion, my compadre, my bff. Professional Better Simon and Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Chad, how we doing?

[Chad Millman]

Dude, I gotta share with you my past 17, 18, 20 hours because it's truly insane. I got a buddy. His name is Kenny Dichter. Kenny is a serial, brilliant, enthusiastic force of nature entrepreneur who is hyper connected in sports media business. He started a company called Wheels up, the private jet company. Right. So I've gotten to know Kenny a little bit over the past couple years. He's starting a new business called Real slx. And it's all about taking his superpower, which is creating experiences and getting people involved in these once in a lifetime experience at really big events. The best experiences are the best experiences. And so, you know, he did something at the super bowl last year with Rayos. Probably one of the best super bowl events I've ever been to. Simon, you and I are going to be doing stuff there this year at the Super Bowl. So he called me on Monday and he says, I got tickets to the Auburn Duke game Wednesday night. Auburn number two, Duke number nine, Cooper. Flag all that. We're going to fly down Private Wednesday afternoon. We're going to have dinner, we're going to go to the game, we'll fly back that night. How do you say no to that, right? Like, in a million years, when would I be like, yeah, I'm going to go down to Durham, North Carolina the day before a show and I'm gonna, you know, fly private, go to dinner and come back that night. But of course I said yes. You can't not say yes to that. Dude flew down, we land, we go to the, go to dinner, go to this place called Nana's in Durham, which was ridiculous. And then we get the game. There were about eight of us. Kenny had a bunch of tickets and a bunch of guys that I know and like a lot. Some guys who I've met through Kenny, who work with Kenny, a buddy of mine, namely Fitting, who I used to work with at espn, now he runs content at wwe. The tickets were no joke. First row, baseline, under the basket. Like feet on the floor, talking to the ref during the breaks. My kids sending me pictures of him seeing me on tv because every time a team is scoring, the camera crosses my face. It was truly insane. And the game was off the hook. Like I've been to Cameron before. It's. It's a incredible experience. I went to Duke UNC a couple years ago with my younger son and it was loud and crazy. And the Cameron crazies really are truly Insane. And it's a, it's a, it's a must do experience for sports fans. I was sitting next to this guy who's had these tickets for 30 years. He's a beer distributor who supplies Cameron in the football stadium. He was saying that that game last night was the loudest game he's ever heard. It was ear splitting how insane it was. Duke wins. Great game. Get back on the plane at midnight. No, get back on the plane at 12:45, land in Westchester at 2, get home at 4am now we're doing the show. It was, it was once in a lifetime amazing. Chad Millman is proud of himself.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, great game. Cool night. I mean, it's a hell of a story.

[Chad Millman]

Still flying a little bit. But you know what, Simon? No work, no perks. We got to get to work because we got a lot to do today. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorite, deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet 3, 65 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF In Iowa terms, conditions, restrictions apply. As always on Thursdays during the season, we do like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are. The lines are moving. Based on our conversations, the pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

Hello?

[Chad Millman]

Who's there?

[Simon Hunter]

I'm talking.

[Chad Millman]

Ring, ring, telephone ring. Somebody saying baby, what you doing?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Let's start off with the Thursday game. Shock to no. 1 professionals like Green Bay. We've seen now that a couple books have moved to the three, then they get hit by other professionals who bump it right back up to three and a half. So it's obviously a game that's split but so far to me it seems like it's more so every pro. I talked to Lexus Green Bay side for exactly what we've talked about. So unfortunately it's another Thursday we love and I feel like we're going to nail can't put in the contest. So just a, just another good line though it's a three and a half. I still think that's the key there. Let's go to a game that you loved. I loved. And now we've seen this number move a ton.

[Justin Jefferson]

Right.

[Simon Hunter]

This Minnesota game. Every guy I talked to, for good reason, likes the Vikings for what we really talked about. Right. It's. It's a bad matchup for Kirk in that offense we've seen now, too. Sam Darnold, as bad as he was. Right. For those couple weeks stretches, he's kind of getting a little bit of a groove. Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

I mean, he seems like he's comfortable again. So not shocking that that number. Utah gave it out. I think at five. It's now up to six at a lot of books. So that's a game we'll definitely most likely end up with a contest. Yeah, the. The game that really jumped out to me was just because we were at the timer. On the other side was that Chiefs game. Every pro I talked to right now really likes the chief side. It's looking more and more like the Chargers is kind of the Joe Public side, which isn't that shocking right now, meanwhile, are on the public side. And that bear side. Most pros I talk to have our view of it where this is a spot to take this 49ers team. So interesting hear your view on this game. Now that we're a couple of days later, another one that we knew the pros would be the Jets. Mean, Chad, I don't think it changes my opinion. I still like Miami. I think they're just. Just keep on chasing that same thing with this jets team every week.

[Chad Millman]

Dude, I got so many. I can't wait to talk about that game.

[Simon Hunter]

And then obviously a game I love. The professionals, though, are pretty split on it. That Cleveland, Brown, Pittsburgh game. All right, hit that horn, babe. Let's dance. There's still a one book in Jersey here that has a seven, which is pretty shocking. I really thought this would be six by today. But we get why they like Pittsburgh. No one's denying Pittsburgh is a much better team and they are at home against a Cleveland team with an inconsistent quarterback. But my argument to them is just this number is way too big for this type of divisional matchup. And I don't know if you watch that AFC hard knocks. This is like the perfect division to do the hard knocks on. Like, it just. All of it was just. It's just so football. Like, everything about it was so football. Just talking about how you kind of throw the records out in these teams and they're just so familiar with each other. So, um, yeah, it's been a good year to back the dogs in this division. I think the pros that are looking at this one are saying, well, it's got to go the other way at some point. The favorites can't all not cover in this division this whole year. So a pretty interesting game there. And the last one aside, I like, I like the Bills that we knew that was going to be heavy. Public side, it's interesting to hear how many pros like the Rams here and, you know, talked to a couple of guys I really respect. They went pretty heavy on the Rams of four and a half. The books that took that money moved it to three and a half. Now some other, you know, Bill's money's come back in a couple of those books went back to four. So, yeah, really, really split week with a couple of these games. Chat what some pros just are betting the numbers here and other ones are just taking the value and they can on certain dogs.

[Chad Millman]

All right, well, good. I'm glad because all these games are the ones that we want to touch on and you know, when we get for me, especially when we get into Wednesdays and do a little more research, the Bills Rams game definitely stuck out. Chiefs, Chargers definitely stuck out. On second thoughts, especially deep into some research yesterday. And then early this morning, one final order of business before we get into the games. Reminder, our latest free Favorites podcast, Watch Party is happening. Gotta RSVP, folks. Thursday, December 12th, one week from today, we're gonna be at the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia. We're gonna do free drinks. We're gonna do like a mini show. And so, you know, it's not a show that we're gonna be able to post. Simon and I are basically gonna do what we do on the Favorites. We're gonna do it live. Matt Mitchell's gonna be there. Evan Abrams is gonna be there. We have so much freaking swag to give away. Favorite favorite swag. Tommy John swag. You know, we love the Tommy John swag. It's going to be leading into the Thursday Night Football game between the Rams and the Niners. We're going to sweat together. We're going to bet together. We're going to have a good time. Please RSVP to the event. Check out the link in the podcast or YouTube episode description. RSVP's are pouring in. Don't delay.

[Simon Hunter]

Sharpen our sword for the battle.

[Chad Millman]

Let's get rolling. Simon, I'm calling it right now. Miami -6. We're in the foxhole.

[Simon Hunter]

You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

I commit to a team, I commit to a city.

[Simon Hunter]

I'm a foxhole guy.

[Chad Millman]

Clearly, we're in the foxhole. Taking the Dolphins as six point favorites, this is the first time that the jets have been underdogs since they played the Bills. I think it was week six in the middle of October that included closing his favorites against Houston, Arizona, Pittsburgh, that game against Buffalo, they, the money was pouring in on the Jets. They had closed as only one and a half point dogs against the Bills. I, I don't get it. Like, it's a bad team with an old quarterback who's a mobile, who now is going on, you know, McAfee and saying, we don't have anything to prove. As if to say, I can't be held accountable for the losses. I'm not doing it for you guys. You're a professional. Better. What is wrong with your brethren?

[Simon Hunter]

Well, it is also model based. So it's. The model is not taking account that like you just said, everything is just so negative in that building right now. And it shows up in the games, right? A lot of those games. You know, even when they have a lead, they've been falling apart. And it's just not the Rogers of old like we talked about. Just, he's incredibly inconsistent. And I think their view of it is just that this team every week is undervalued because of that in their model and that, you know, I'll be first to admit it. I got burned by this team coming to the season. I overrated them simply because of the model. Like I had a higher grade on them. And, you know, it also screwed me with the 49ers because the 49ers just rolled them week one. It made me in turn overwrite the 49ers and think, well, this team and the jets, they'll bounce back against these bad teams. And they kind of did. And it made me think, okay, this is who I thought they were going to be. And then they fell off a total cliff. Right? I mean, they literally have three wins at this point, like you just said. So I think that's the issue, Chad, is that, you know, the professionals have loved them all year. They've lost a ton of money and they're kind of chasing that money, it seems like to me that's, that's my view of it, because I'm with you. I don't really understand the betting here in the market, but it's Unfortunate the books haven't shifted. Like I said, five and a half would have been amazing if they just would have gave us that number. But it seems like they're just going to hold you at this six right now with Miami. So I'm with you. I love this match of Miami TUA at home and this matchup against a defense that struggled against the pass and they've struggled against a run. That's what Miami wants to do as well. They love to run the ball. That just opens up everything obviously downfield for the pass. And we've talked about. We've seen Miami now since Tua's been back, just beat up on these bad teams and even good teams, right. They've held into some games like that. I wish I had taken more from that Bills game into a drove down the field. It was like that was a big moment for him on the road against that Bills team that I didn't get enough credit for it. And I mean, we've seen they're just a different team than they were early in the year. So I'm. I'm loving this as a fox. So I just like to be on this chest on the spot. I mean, Miami.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. So the. Since firing Robert Salah, The jets are 31st in points allowed per possession. They're last in EPA per play. Sauce Gardener might not play this weekend. Not like he tackles when he does play. That team is in such disarray. And look, we're talking about it so much, we just may get burned. But TUA in this spot. I mentioned this on Tuesday, Miami and Tua beat up on bad teams as favorites at home 7 and 1. The jets are a bad team, folks. There's just no two ways about it. So the big money will pour in on the jets on Sunday. We've seen it every single Sunday for the reasons someone just said. You make a great point. We've talked about this a lot on the show. Like, rankings are hard to completely change in the middle of a season, right? It's gonna happen. It's like. It's like you titrate off of drugs, right? Like, you can't just go from 50 milligrams to 0 milligrams. You gotta go from 50 to 40 to 30 to 20 to 10. Like that's what happens with these rankings. And the no. 1 can go fast enough to catch up with how bad and sort of discombobulated the New York jets are. So.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, the fear is you over adjust. Like, obviously we talked about that. I mean, we took a Beating back in the Panthers early in the year. But you're seeing why because of what this team can be. When Bryce Young is what I thought he was going to be coming to the season which is an open offense that have been a much better team that the biggest issue I've had definitely personally this season has just been the adjustments to these bad teams are really bad. Right. There's just some really poor coaching right now in the NFL and not adjusting enough to injuries. Right. This Carolina team, we should adjust somewhere in the year when they lost a lot of their defense like they're they had major issues to their defense and I didn't adjust to it. So there are things like that. But like I said, you don't want to over adjust because we would have missed these last three weeks on this Panthers team. Right. We would have totally been out on them if I had over adjusted their number and underrated the value. So the same thing is going here. This jets team, I just think guys are stubborn dug in on the exact number they have with this team.

[Chad Millman]

Well you mentioned Carolina. Carolina is a 12 and a half point dog at Philly. Like it's an interesting week for us. I feel like there are a couple of games and we're going to talk about the other one too in years past they are auto plays big number against super hype team a team that we've been loving all year. Caroline is 12 and a half at Philly and on Tuesday we talked about it and we liked Philly. We liked Carolina like or at least we're leaning that way but we didn't go all in. We didn't like immediately bet it you didn't call it a Simon says the number had come down a little bit. There are some trends that that sort of back fading the hot team here but I can't get there like no as much as we love how Bryce Young has improved like this is not the Saints or the Bucks or even the Chiefs like with an underperforming secondary and undermanned offense and a terrible right tackle and left tackle like name me a defense you'd like to face less than the Eagles right now. Jalen Carter and Milton Williams are pro football focuses third and fourth highest rated defensive tackles rushing the passer, Zach Bond, the linebacker, he's the fifth highest rated player in coverage. Not amongst linebackers, amongst all players. And he's a freaking linebacker. Like the Eagles are giving up 6.18 yards per pass attempt I and then the Panthers defense while it's getting healthier is really Just terrible against the run. Like, you know, basically bottom three. And that's being generous. Like if you average every overall number, saquon could get 2,000 yards for the season. By the end of this game, he could have 500 yards. So I don't know. I think we want to bet the Panthers based on the number, but I feel like we're going to eat it.

[Simon Hunter]

That's fair. Like just the off the field stuff though, like the human side of it where this is a game where they just played the Ravens and now they're playing against a 3 and 9 Panthers team at home the week before they go and play a Pittsburgh team. Like, this is such an in between game where it's like a trap spot. It really is. It doesn't get more trapped than this. That's the. That's another really glaring spot where I like it. The reason I didn't really bang your head about this one is because I wanted the 13 and I've been pissed off where like the professionals have kind of held it under the 13, like the highest we're getting right now and most books is 12 and a half where it's like, you know, no one's, like you just said, no one's taking Carolina. You think everyone in the world doesn't feel the same as you. The only people I know that are obviously professionals taking this Carolina spot, it's just, it's such a spot to take them because of the in between and the fact that this offense, like you just said, okay, they're not the best team obviously defensively, but we've seen a change offensively with the passing game. And you know, as much as I say how great this Eagles defense is, they're young. I mean, they had, you know, they've had a couple injuries as well to this defense as re as well. Reed Franklin, ship Brandon Graham and a young defense that's feeling themselves right now where there were guys open. I don't want to say Lamar lost that game last week, but he did miss open receivers and their kicker, if he had made those kicks. It's a much different game right towards the end there. Like the Eagles, you know, they're up 1412 and then Justin Tucker missed that field goal that when they shimming up 1512 and then because you missed it, bang, Eagles were down the red zone. Saquon ran it in and it's like, okay, totally different game now, right? It was 2112 at that point. So I do think this Eagles team just a little overrated right now where it's like, yes. Are they very good? Are they. Should they be said to be the best team in the NFC right now? Yeah, because they're healthy. Right. Detroit's had so many injuries. I get the respect to them. I just think it's gone too far at this point. That's the whole point for me with this one where it's like the summer should be closer to 10. It's a nice in between spot where you expect them not to overlook this Panthers team, but how can they not, Right? It's the human element of it where it's like you just took down the big bad wolf of the Ravens. Like a team that Lamar had only lost in his whole career, only lost one time to an NFC team and you smacked them. You're feeling good all week. You're home now against the Panthers. You're not going to look ahead to Pittsburgh. We know that's literally the last tough game on their. I mean, Washington's tough, obviously, but that really is going to decide their one seed because Detroit here, if they dropped us to Green Bay and they got Buffalo next week, really quickly, the Eagles could become this one seed. So, yeah, I feel like it's a lot to weigh on this young team of this Philadelphia. So for all that, Chad, that's the only reason I'm like, okay, maybe I'll convince you come Sunday they take this Panthers team. But it's really, it's about the number. It's like if I'm not getting a great number here, okay, we want, we don't have to put it in. But if this is up to 13 and a half contest Sunday, Chad, I'm going to probably be an asshole and be like, we got to put this in, blah, blah, blah.

[Chad Millman]

But by the way, I, I feel like the 13 was the line of demarcation for me and I'm trying to be really disciplined as we head into the end of the year and not, not chase feelings and put them into numbers. Right, Right. We missed the best in number 13 feels better to me.

[Simon Hunter]

And we've talked about this. Though the number has not burned us this year. Well, the only burned us are three and twos. Look, it's been a really weird year where these big numbers have not mattered.

[Chad Millman]

Old habits die hard. And adjusting.

[Simon Hunter]

For this season, I agree with you. But for this season, it's just been twos and threes that have really mattered. Everything else, not so much.

[Chad Millman]

Look, it's, it's funny you say that like you can look in the Action app and there's A really cool feature that tells you your sort of performance against the closing line value and your ROI against the closing line value. And like, it's, it comes into play so infrequently, but you still want it. Like.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

You don't want to buy high and sell low. You want to get the best of the number. You want to feel better on Sunday morning. I want to see in the app that I've got it at 13 and a half and now it's at 12 and a half and all those kinds of things.

[Simon Hunter]

I told you, stupid game of that's when you lose a bet, you go, well, at least I had the best of the number. It's, that's, that's the main part of it. Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

By the way, I've never said that in my life.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, right.

[Chad Millman]

When I, when I lose a game, I'm like, are you fucking kidding me? Why did I even care about this number? Why did I like race to bet this to beat the move when it didn't even matter?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

I don't disagree with anything you're saying. I feel skittish about, I think this Eagles team and I felt this way last week. I think it's on an upward trajectory. I think the way they're playing minimizes their weaknesses, which is really Jalen hurts as a passer. I think they're, I think their defensive line is so good that that minimizes the emotional up and down. Because when you're playing physical, you're playing physical. Right. That's not about what happens on the edge. And I think, I think skill players, to me, are more inclined to be prone to emotional roller coaster mistakes than players of the defensive line. And their defensive line is just so good. So that's my fear. But look, we'll talk about it on Sunday. We'll see where we land.

[Evan Abrams]

Introducing Signals, the next generation of platforms for investors designed to elevate your trading strategy by giving access to insights. Used by Wall street pros to dominate the market. Signals uses its proprietary data of $70 billion in consumer spend across North America to spot market trends before they make the headlines. We bring you the alternative data that drives decisions at top hedge funds, allowing you to carve your own edge in the stock market. Join the insider circle who are already transforming their investment strategies. Visit joinsignals.com to start your free 14 day trial. No hidden fees, no gimmicks, just pure, actionable insights. End your reliance on outdated information with signals. Invest like a pro. Make informed decisions swiftly and stay ahead of the curve. Uncover tomorrow's market moves with today's real time data. Visit joinsignals.com today.

[Cindy Crawford]

Now I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful Beauty makes powerful and effective skincare simple and it's loved by millions of women. It's formulated for all ages and all skin tones and types. And it's designed to work as a complete skincare system, leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth and nourished. I recommend starting with Cindy's full regimen which contains all five of her best selling products including the Amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next generation serum has the power of melon leaf stem cell technology. It's melon leaf stem cells encapsulated for freshness and released onto the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five star reviews, why not give it a try? Subscribe today and and you can get the Amazing Meaningful Beauty system for just $49.95. That includes our introductory five piece system, free gifts, free shipping and a 60 day money back guarantee. All that [e-mail] hey guys, this is Matt Jones.

[Simon Hunter]

Drew Franklin from the Fade this podcast.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

We got a great episode coming up.

[Simon Hunter]

Picks in all the sports, football, basketball, we do them all.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

But here's a preview of this week's episode.

[Simon Hunter]

I've seen people in the gambling community kind of make jokes about faith this and we just goof off and don't even talk about the games. Bring your records and set them on this table right now. All you out there that are spend two hours talking about the games and will in the last seven years and night games, they've come in and haven't scored 20 points and you get too detailed. Bring your records right here to fade this. We'll we'll talk about books and cooking and Kevin Costner and still make more money betting on sports than you will.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

And this episode was brought to you in partnership with DraftKings. To hear more, listen and subscribe to Fade this on iheartradio or wherever you listen to podcasts. Look around. You can find cars like these on autotrader, like that car riding your tail or if you're tailgating right now, all those cars doubling as kitchens and living rooms are on autotrader too. Are you working out and listening to this ad at the same time? Well, multitasking pro cars like the ones in the gym parking lot are for sale on autotrader New cars, used cars, electric cars, maybe even flying cars. Okay, no flying cars. But as soon as they get invented, they'll be on Autotrader. Just you wait. Autotrader. Thursday Night Football is on, and it's only on Prime Video.

[Chad Millman]

Good move. Touchdown.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

This week, west coast rivals collide as the Los Angeles Rams visit the San Francisco 49ers.

[Simon Hunter]

Heck of a throw.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

Coverage beginning begins with TNF tonight. Not a Prime member sign up for a 30 day free trial to stream the game. It's the Rams and 49ers Thursday only on Prime Video. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com amazonprime for details.

[Chad Millman]

Atlanta, Minnesota. This was my exec decision. I did it with clarity and confidence, if I recall. And as you know, as you've said, the wise guys are with me. It's moved up since the show. In fact, as the show is happening, it moved from five to five and a half. It is a pros Joe split tickets on the Falcons, money on Minnesota. I guess as you noted, the public is buying into the very lazy, facile Kirk Cousins revenge narrative. We disagree.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, we know they would, though. It's just. It's the lowest of hanging fruit and that's the easiest fruit to grab. So. Yeah, yeah, this. This one's shocking to me because I really didn't think it would get back to six, especially where, you know, you were able to get four and a half when you were talking about on Tuesday. Like, that's. That's a great number now, especially now that it is touching six at a lot of books. And you know, for me, this matchup, it's. It's really all about, like we just said, the defense here, where I do have faith now in this Vikings offense as Sam Darnold's got more comfortable. But this defense, I just can't get it out of my head where it's like, isn't this the perfect matchup for them against Kirk, a guy they know and their style is what gives him fits. It just feels like it's. That's the fear is it feels too easy, Chad, because it's like five and a half still a lot of books. It feels like a gift like we always talk about, where it's like it's still below this key number of six. You know, them rolling, them blowing them out, or this coming down to they're up 14 and Kirk gets the late touchdown and they get the two pointer and it lands right on six. That sounds about right. So that's why I think the number should be six. It's like, that's, that's where this game's gonna go. So, yeah, if you, if you took like I threw a little on Atlanta, I mean, there was one book that had the six last Sunday when we talked about it. Obviously my bets have dwarfed that for this Minnesota side. If you were stubborn, you do like Atlanta. I would just wait. Like, every pro I talked to is coming in on this Viking side for the most part. So it's like if they're going to keep taking respected money, they'll keep bumping it up and, you know, the public, they'll come in on their teasers. Right. This is like this in Miami. It's going to be a big tease team. They're both at six. Everyone's going to take it down to a pick. That's just what people like to do on their teasers. So this could easily keep going up. So if you're like me and Chad, you like Minnesota, grab the five and a half while you still can, if you haven't already.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, the, the, the things that Kirk Cousins struggles against the most pressure in the pocket are what the Vikings excel at. Right. He's facing a defense that is fourth in sacks, third in QB pressures, second in blitz rate. Also the top ranked defense for rushing efficiency, defending rushes inside the tackles, number two outside the tackles. The most effective weapon the Falcons actually have right now isn't Kirk Cousins, isn't Drake London, definitely isn't Kyle Pittsburgh, It's Bijan Robinson playing like a Pro Bowler. But that also plays with the Vikings strengths. And I think that the wise guys see what we see about Kirk is how terrible he was against the Chargers when they really weren't getting any pressure. And that unless he's playing the Bucks, he's kind of having a terrible year. And so this is a. I am a little bit worried. It's funny, you know, I said I'm trying to be more disciplined. I'm also trying to be more disciplined with the bankroll. And I got this at five, but I didn't put. I know I got a five and a half. I didn't put a ton on it because I was kind of hoping it would come down to five. And now I got to make a decision. Do I just increase the amount of money I'm putting on at five and a half, which I'm going to. Because I wanted to get a little bit better number. I'm not going to get it. Going to have to live with the five and a half. Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And with, with Kirk, I'll just say Whatever's going along, he has been awful these last three weeks even after coming out of that bio. I mean he, you know, no touchdowns, no touchdowns, six picks, six picks, tons of sacks. It's just been a disaster. And you know, you think only, it's only the people in media saying Michael Penix's name. Like there's obviously gonna be whispers in that locker room that someone they see every day in practice that apparently has looked pretty good all year in practice and even coming to the year, remember they sat him was the second week of August because there was obviously a fear even then with Kirk coming back from this injury. And it's just different, like he just does not have the step, he doesn't step into the throw the same zip on the ball with everything that goes into it. So yeah Chad, this is one I can guarantee people is going to be in our contest, especially at five and a half.

[Chad Millman]

Well look, if you're also watching Caleb Williams the last three games really developing, if you've seen Jaden Daniels playing well, if you've seen Drake May Ballin, if you've seen Bo Nix playing like a pro, like truly developing, you're going to be like if the rookie quarterbacks are this developed and Michael Penix is on that plane, we want to know, we want to see it, we want to take advantage of it. And by the way, the next offensive coordinator, head coach or quarterback who can figure out how to use Kyle Pitts might go into the hall of Fame because he's now going through multiple levels of coaches, quarterbacks and coordinators who cannot figure out how to get him involved in the offense.

[Simon Hunter]

So do you think we ever see any teams ever after Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins coming back from their Achilles ever give money to a quarterback after the age of what, 35, 36 with a coming off an Achilles?

[Chad Millman]

Of course we will. We 100% will because everyone believes they can be the one to turn it around. Everyone's got a God complex. Everyone is hoping, everyone is looking for the handrail on the roller coaster. Of course we're going to do it. There's not a question in my mind. Past glory will always remain. Chicago, San Francisco. It's interesting you say the Bears are four point dogs here and better number than we got on Tuesday. So the the wives got money has come in on the Niners. Yeah, we actually asked on Tuesday is the value on the Niners and you said that that it's feeling very public. The Bears and the Seahawks are shaping up to be the biggest public dogs of the week. If you're looking at the splits, 73% of the tickets on the Bears, 60% of the money on the Niners. Like, I think the Niners are in real trouble physically. And I still think I like the Bears.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I'm letting you kind of drive this boat here where I. I was just happy to sit this on out because it's like, I want to be with you on the Bears, but when I'm talking to every guy who's you saying exactly what I said, which is in my lifetime, this is a spot. I hammer this 49ers team. Like, this is always a spot. I take this team, especially at this number. But my pause is what we talked about. The 49ers have so much bullshit going on off the field outside their injuries. You know, this, the turmoil, the drama right now. I mean, their media following along and seeing everything going on. The, the. The conversations being had, even Kyle Shannon's demeanor. It's like, this is the team that went to the super bowl last year. They just feel like everything's totally different this year. Confidence is totally gone by Shanahan and Purdy. The biggest one to me is what me and you talked about with just this Berries team. It feels like they really fucking hated Eber through. Like, he's gone. Like, the ding dong, the witch is dead. It seems like that to me is the biggest thing where it's like, are we reading too much into it? Betting too much on a team that we expect we'll come out here and play hard together as a unit and play for something where I still don't know what the 49ers are playing for. People are like, well, they're playing for a playoff spot. They've been playing for that all season. Like, I hate that. Where it's like, I don't think they have it in them. Like, they just don't seem like they have a dog in the fight. But yeah, obviously we expect this is their last ditch effort. This is going to be their everything game. I get why the professionals are coming on the 49ers side, but I just can't get out of what we talked about, how much it seemed like that Bears team hated their head coach. He's gone. We've seen it before in these exact spots where teams just play hard for their interim coach. And I just don't think the Bears are that bad. Like, I feel like, no, no. Like, they really aren't. Like, they. They have talent on both sides of the ball, and we've kind of seen that play out this year where you know, they have covered in what, three, four straight weeks and crazy back door, you could say Fluky covers, but it's what we talked about. Caleb Williams, he's a guy that never gives up, could push the ball downfield. And you've seen that now after the Minnesota game where he came back and in that game against Green Bay where he came back and that game against Detroit. At the end of day, those games, they probably should have won. Maybe it came down to the coaching. They've just been playing so much better these last couple of weeks since 49ers team. So not going to let them bully us. Chad, I'll stick with you. I'll grab the plus four with Chicago.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I guess at the end of the day, if we're talking about we always like playing teams when they're dogs and they have a new coach and that we've, we've seen that win consistently. We saw it happen again this year with New Orleans. Right. And New Orleans has less talent than the Bears. I think there's a lightness in that locker room and relief for that team. And Joy, they'll just play with, you know, unabandoned joy, knowing that they don't have to worry about Eber fluss it up at the end of the game.

[Simon Hunter]

More that they probably want to show that he was the problem, right?

[Chad Millman]

Oh, for sure.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Also like they blame them for that Hail Mary and think how long ago that was.

[Chad Millman]

Will they hold? They've been, they've been snatching losses from the jaws of victory for a month in the most crazy, awkward, inane way. So the Bills will be on the list. I mean, what's scary right now, Simon, is we've got on our list two, you know, mid sized favorites in Minnesota and Miami. So we're, we're, we're playing with fire a little bit here. Especially since one of the other games we liked the other day, Buffalo was a four point favorite at the Rams. I gotta tell you, when we talked about it on Tuesday, I felt pretty confident. By the time I closed my computer yesterday, much less confident the line had moved in the Rams direction. All of a sudden I was just feeling like, are we at the peak of the Bills market? We know, I know we like them to win in these spots and that they do tend to cover in these spots. But they just came off a stretch where they had like statement wins against the teams they have to beat in the Niners and the Chiefs and the Rams are in a knife fight to win their division and still think they can do it. The move is on the Rams right now. And you even said it in sort of sharp calls.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I was shocked to talk to a lot of guys, like even yesterday, I mean, in the book, and talking to a couple guys who I really respect, and they're both like, this is our favorite bets of the week as Rams. And all I could say was like, I'd been there, been there this season where I love the Rams in this exact spot, too. And it's just been burning me. So they could be right. Like, you could be right as well, where it's like, isn't this the spot to sell this Bills team especially, you know, huge win last week and then they're heading to Detroit after this game. Like, this is their. This is the brutal stretch here. But I can't get out of my mind, Chad, just that this is Josh Allen's world and we're living in it right now. And he's kind of broken a lot of the rules this season. And he was someone where, you know, I'll be the first to admit it, I thought we had a pattern growing with him where he was just going to be the team that beats up on bad teams and then struggles against the playoff teams. But that Chiefs game really changed my mind with that where, like, you know, no one beats Mahomes by more than seven points. Like, they really beat the hell out of that Chiefs team and even say the Chiefs team's not that good. This is a Bills team that lost 20 to 23 to that Houston team. Right. They were down 20 to 3 at one point in that game, and the week before that, they got demolished by that Ravens team 35 to 10. So it was like we had reasons to question this Bills team since then. I mean, like, you just talked about, they've been one of the best, best teams all football. I mean, their only close game really was that Miami game. Right? They won. What was it, 30 to 27, something like that. Where it was like Tua had the Miami in that game. So, okay, maybe they still aren't the best team against playoff teams. This Rams team is not a playoff team. I mean, we can both agree with that. They're. They're just lucky to be at 6 and 6 right now. And. Yeah, okay, you don't want to put this one in because it is. It does feel a little trappy. How am I not going to agree with you? I. My whole life, I'm always on this other side with this Rams team. I do just think it's just Josh Allen's different. I'm confident in him, believe in him. Love the matchup for the run game, though. That's the biggest thing for me is this Rams team. We've seen it now, you know, if Taysom Hill didn't go out of that game, I don't know if they're going to come back against that Saints team. Like, it feels like the Saints were kind of finding a groove there, moving the ball. Same with this Bills team. It's like, how do the Bills not just run for 150 against this Rams defense that literally cannot stop the run? Like, they have no guys up front that can plug gaps and really stop stuff. So. All right, Chad, if you don't want to put it in, I totally get it because it is not a spot we usually take. But it's, it's all right. Give me three and a half. Let the professionals bet it. I'll be the sucker. I'll be like the Joe Public here and I'll take the three and watch it land right on three and me lose my three and a half. But I can't help myself here. I'm just, I just love this Bills team and how they're playing right now.

[Chad Millman]

Well, look, we can keep it on the list. It's not like we have 15 games.

[Simon Hunter]

I give you comfort. You're like, am I really going to make chat put four favorites in?

[Chad Millman]

Well, look, here's the thing.

[Simon Hunter]

I get it. I get it.

[Chad Millman]

And not just that we're the next game we're going to talk about, which is our big balls. So we know it's going to go in will be the third game in a row. I know that is going completely against what we would normally do. So let's talk about these as a package instead of sort of trying to talk about them individually. But it is time to talk about our big balls. Bet of the Week presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great underwear. Tommy John makes the greatest okay Louisiana Chargers four point Dogs at Kansas City Simon this is a game that is testing us. It's testing our faith. It's testing our fidelity. It's testing our biases because at first glance we should love the Chargers. Love them. Physical team, a good coach, an elite quarterback who doesn't make mistakes. Since Justin Herbert got healthy, they have been running more play action which is getting him much more many more windows to throw down field against the blicks. His qbr has improved from 63 to 86. But then on Tuesday, like, during the show, again, in a conversation you and I had, like, before the air, before we came on the air, we couldn't get there. And like, for me, and we talked about it on Tuesday, it's really about the injuries. This team could not move the ball on the ground after J.K. dobbins went out against the Ravens a couple weeks ago. And they weren't any better against the Falcons, like, gaining only 56 yards rushing. Ladd McConkey is the only receiver who's been doing anything. He's been banged up, limited in practice, has had shoulder issues all season. Now he's got a knee injury that's newly diagnosed. We got to go with the Chiefs.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And it's. It really is the thing we talking about the Chargers team was really me and you having a little bit of like, we always back the Chargers at this number. Even earlier this year, we took the seven and a half where.

[Chad Millman]

And always fade the Chiefs at this number.

[Simon Hunter]

Right. And it's because it's been good to us. Right. You going back. I'm in the action app right now. You look back in 22, they had two matchups. Both times, the Chiefs were favorites greater than three and a half. Both times, Herbert backdoored that covered like, he covered it both times. And that was obviously really good to us. Now last year, you kind of can throw it out, right? The Chargers had a bunch of injuries and then the final game of the year, I think it was the backup playing for the Chiefs and same for the Chargers. So obviously, you know, don't have much golf that. But this year we've seen it now where this. This Chiefs team chat. To me, they looked burned out. I don't know about you, but I felt like they were burned out. And I read a really interesting article the other day about Andy Reid giving them a little mini bye week. Right. They had the Friday game and they gave them off the weekend. Had a couple guys come in Monday, obviously. But, like, overall, it seemed like it was a nice thing to let that team get away from it because they just look, you know, beat like that defense getting rolled. It's just not something we're used to with spags. And like you talked about, the big thing to me, this Chargers team is that loss of J.K. dobbins. They had no run game and it felt like they had no, like, I don't know. Not that they've been lucky this year, but they've been a team that this year have just been able to run the Ball like you say, after they can run it. Justin Herbert gets the open easier reads because of the play action pass. And when you take that away, it just looks so complicated and just awful. And he looked uncomfortable. And again, this is against a Atlanta team that's not that great at anything defensively where the Sheep's team we've seen as bad they looked, you know, before that, before they started playing bad these last couple weeks. This is a defense that is really tough to run on and has a pretty good secondary overall. So yeah, this, this really is about playing this matchup and try not to overthink your rates. Like, okay, is this the lowest we can buy right now in the Chiefs this season? It kind of feels like it would have been great if this number had got to three. I thought the professionals would come in on the Chargers, but I told you it's the other way. Most pros I've talked to at this point have come in on this Chiefs team. I get their viewpoint, I get where they're coming from and I feel like in agreeance with them that okay, the number moved too much. If, if this isn't three and a half in contest chat and you didn't want to put in it because it's not three and a half. I get it because it's four and a half. It's obviously not ideal, but I feel like if three and a half, we might have to put this one in another favorite. I know it's crazy, but it's really all about buying in these spots on these teams. I feel like the public is underrating a little bit.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I agree with you. And I think if you look at the Chief's injury report for the week, which I did this morning, there's three guys on it. All three of them were full participants in practice yesterday. Isaiah Pacheco is not even on it. You know, he came back and expectation Andy Reid is teasing that DJ Humphrey is going to be starting at tackle, left tackle for the Chiefs and their biggest issue and we could see it in the game the other day, even on the touchdown pass that Patrick Mahomes threw in the second quarter, that sort of awkward pass where he got hit and bent over like he was yelling at the offensive line about protecting him on a touchdown pass and yelling at Andy Reid to get some of these guys to get that right tackle out of the game. So. And Juwan Taylor constantly getting the same penalty over and over and over again. So I think they're between the rest, between DJ Humphrey playing. Andy Reid has been teasing it the injuries dissipating. I think it's the exact right spot. So I'm excited that we kind of agreed on it. When we were slacking this morning, I'm like, is he telling me he doesn't like the Chiefs? Because now I'm in love with the Chiefs. So I'm glad we could find a mind meld, which made no sense.

[Simon Hunter]

I offered up the Chiefs and the Panthers and you were like, do you like the Chiefs? Here he goes, yeah, why would I say them? I didn't know what the hell you're even talking about.

[Chad Millman]

Well, I just got confused because I'm like, I don't. I don't know. Listen, dude, I'm not like, I get it.

[Simon Hunter]

Life chat. I get it.

[Chad Millman]

I want three hours of sleep.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, you're the man.

[Chad Millman]

I'm trying to do the job. I'm trying to do it well, but I got to live my life, okay? Listen, I can't be getting up, taking care of kids and doing this job while I'm out jetting around. Simon we can hear the bells. We can smell the gingerbread. The holiday season is upon us. And with over 20 million pairs soldiers and thousands of five star reviews, let's make the Gift of Tommy John our newest holiday tradition. It always feels good to give a thoughtful gift, but it feels great to give Tommy John. You'll feel the warm glow of upgrading someone's life. And with breathable comfort, they'll feel those special cringle tingles all year long. Simon why will you be giving the Gift of Tommy John this season?

[Simon Hunter]

Oh, we love Tommy John chat. I'm giving it because it's the gift that last.

[Chad Millman]

Shop tommyjohn.com favorites right now for the holidays. And get 30% off site wide. Save 30% off tommyjohn.com favorites tommyjohn.com favorites I gotta think that we're responsible for at least half of those 20 million pairs sold.

[Evan Abrams]

Introducing Signals, the next generation of platforms for investors designed to elevate your trading strategy by giving access to insights used by Wall street pros to dominate the market. Signals uses its proprietary data of $70 billion in consumer spend across North America to spot market trends before they make the headlines. We bring you the alternative data that drives decisions at top hedge funds, allowing you to carve your own edge in the stock market. Join the insider circle who are already transforming their investment investment strategies. Visit joinsignals.com to start your free 14 day trial. No hidden fees, no gimmicks, just pure actionable insights. End your reliance on outdated information with signals. Invest like a pro, make informed decisions swiftly and stay ahead of the curve. Uncover tomorrow's market moves with today's real time data. Visit joinsignals.com today.

[Cindy Crawford]

Now I'd like to introduce you to Meaningful Beauty, the famed skincare brand created by iconic supermodel Cindy Crawford. It's her secret to absolutely gorgeous skin. Meaningful Beauty makes powerful and effective skin care simple and it's loved by millions of women. It's formulated for all ages and all skin tones and types and it's designed to work as a complete skin care system, leaving your skin feeling soft, smooth and nourished. I recommend starting with Cindy's full regimen which contains all five of her best selling products including the Amazing Youth Activating Melon Serum. This next generation serum has the power of melon leaf stem cell technology. It's melon leaf stem cells encapsulated for freshness and released onto the skin to support a visible reduction in the appearance of wrinkles. With thousands of glowing five star reviews, why not give it a try? Subscribe today and you can get the Amazing Meaningful Beauty system for just just 49.95. That includes our introductory five piece system, free gifts, free shipping and a 60 day money back guarantee. All that [e-mail] look around.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

You can find cars like these on autotrader, like that car riding your tail. Or if you're tailgating right now, all those cars doubling as kitchens and living rooms are on autotrader too. Are you working out and listening to this ad at the same time? Well, multitasking pro cars like the ones in the gym parking lot are for sale on autotrader. New cars, used cars, electric cars, maybe even flying cars. Okay, no flying cars, but as soon as they get invented, they'll be on Autotrader. Just you wait. Autotrader Thursday Night Football is on and it's only on Prime Video.

[Chad Millman]

Good move. Touchdown.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

This week west coast rivals collide as the Loss Angeles Rams visit The San Francisco 49ers.

[Simon Hunter]

Heck of a throw.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

Coverage begins with TNF tonight. Not a Prime Member Sign up for a 30 day free trial to stream the game. It's the Rams and 49ers Thursday only on Prime Video. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.comamazonprime for details.

[Justin Jefferson]

The following ad is sponsored by Pets Best Insurance Services. Your pet is your bestie, your therapist, your preferred match. It's easy to love them, even when they sneak your snacks. It's easy to protect them too with pet insurance coverage from Pets Best because it's all fun and games until they chew on something they shouldn't. With perfect timing, Pets Best helps protect your furry friend and your budget from this imperfect world. Get up to 90% on eligible vet bills for less than a dollar a day. Find your Perfect [e-mail] Pet insurance products offered and administered by Pets Best Insurance Services, LLC are underwritten by American Pet Insurance Company or Independence American Insurance Company for all terms, visit petsbest.com policy.

[Chad Millman]

The Last Game I want to talk about before we dig into some round robins and get to Evan is Cleveland and Pittsburgh. So this was, Simon says, very much a sell high on Pittsburgh. Right. We would do that even if the other divisional and Tomlin factors didn't exist.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

We're going to go in attack mode. We will not go gently. We will unleash hell here in December because we have to, because that's what's required.

[Chad Millman]

But teams in the Steelers current position like the Eagles, who are covering by five points per game just 44% against the spread against teams with winning percentages of 60% or less, which is what the with the Browns have. And then there are Tom and Tomlin spots as a favorite, you know, in a variety of categories, all of which have him covering less than 45%. You know, we don't want to back Jameis after he wins. We do want to back Jameis after he loses. Anything change for you here?

[Simon Hunter]

No. And even if James had won last week and this was still the number, I still think I'd be able to talk myself into it just because how can you make a number this big in this division? It's, it's so rare in the AFC north to blow teams out. Like you really have to be a really good team playing against a team that simply gives up midway through the game. Like could that happen here with Cleveland? Check. Could we get caught? Sure. Right. That, that's always a possibility. But it feels like James has brought something to this team that they were lacking. And you've seen in the plan, right. The offense looks so much more open and fast and they just need the defense to catch up to them. We know the defense has not been good this year and we talk coming in the year that defense from new year does not translate. And Jim Schwartz, I mean we have history now. Data back it up. His splits from year to year are incredible. Like he either has a top two top three defense or a bottom ten bottom five defense. Even last week I was shocked when they talked about they only had two interceptions or two takeaways on defense all year before Bo Nicks kind of threw a couple up. So this is a Browns team that I understand why no one's betting them. Right. I think in the action app right now, all the money, all the tickets right now are on Pittsburgh. I expect them to be the biggest public side. No one's going to believe that Cleveland's going to beat this team twice. That's how this division is, though. Pittsburgh could easily win this division and sweep the Raven, Cincinnati, and then somehow get swept by Cleveland, who maybe only has four or five wins coming to the season. Like that happens all the time, this division. It's just a very weird, wonky way that it plays out. So I'm, I can't help it. Like, I love this number six and a half. Like I said, there's still a book in Jersey where that is a seven, which is incredible. So this is another number that I think professional money will come in. I think it'll be driven down. I could easily see this being six being one of the bigger sides, one of the bigger parlays, and I can't wait to put some on my line. I just love this for an upset for this Cleveland team, especially, like we just talked about, like this Pittsburgh team, you know, not that we're, we're trying to sell high on them, but it's just like I talked about last week. How many of these 50, 50 balls is Russell's going to keep getting away with? It's been incredible. They just keep all connecting. It's going to catch up to them. It's just a matter of the variance. So, yeah, Chad, I love the Browns, as you can tell.

[Chad Millman]

Look, AFC North, Hatfields, McCoys, Montagues and Capulets. Like, it just, it's going to be close. We're on the Browns. I feel better because at least now we know we're going to have a couple of, a couple of underdogs potentially in.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, my five I had written down before it came on. Obviously, I get where you're coming from. The Panthers was Cleveland and the Panthers and then the three favorites we like, I like Miami Vikings and the Chiefs. So if, if people don't be shocked if that's our five, if Chad somehow knocks me out and I wake up and Chicago's in there or the Seahawks are in there also wouldn't be shocked either because I, I get what you're saying. Those are the more public sides, but obviously I, I like those numbers.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I think we're, we're exactly aligned. I, I, I had Minnesota, I had Miami, I had Kansas City, I had Cleveland. And my next in was between actually the Rams, the Panthers and the Bears. So we'll, you know, we'll hash it out, we'll see what happens and we'll do something today and it could change on Sunday as it did last week and, you know, and it might not even matter because we'll end up in the same spot because that's what karma is. Simon, can you name the best ticketing app in the United States?

[Simon Hunter]

Game Time.

[Chad Millman]

That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, Game Time. As Simon and I and all of our listeners know, I love going to live games. NFL, NBA, college football, college basketball. I just got back from the Duke game last night, as you've heard. In fact, when I did my three game, three night sportacular with my son last month, I used Game Time to buy tickets for all three games. I don't listen. I'm, I'm like everybody. I go into Game Time. I buy my freaking tickets just because they sponsored the show. I go in and I use the product. It is my favorite way to buy tickets. They've got amazing last minute deals on games and concerts and their new feature called Game Time Picks that makes getting tickets to see your favorite teams play live even easier. Game Time Picks filters out the fluff to show you only incredible deals on great seats so you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets. Speaking of which, I'm going to open the Game Time app right now from my house here in Connecticut. I see the super deals for UConn men's basketball next week. I'm getting tickets. I'm getting tickets to see the two time national champs for like less than 45 bucks. My favorite part about Game Time, they're all in pricing shows me the total cost upfront. No surprises no matter where you live. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, use code favorites for 20 off your first purchase terms. Apply again, create an account, redeem code favorites for $20 off download game Time today. What time is it? Game Time. We gotta give out our two team moneyline underdog parlay bet365 is gonna boost the odds highlighted on their site all weekend under both game pages. And remember, both games are eligible for bet365's early payout promo where your Moneyline pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17 point lead even if they lose. So if you want to bet this, bet it at bet365. The boosted parlay is Bears and Seahawks. Find the boost under either the Bears or Seahawks game pages on bet365, our moneyline underdog round robin.

[Simon Hunter]

There will come a payday Hallelujah, what a payday There will come a payday someday Someday There will come a payday Hallelujah, what a payday There will come a payday someday we unfortunately, we don't do the Thursdays for our Beth365 moneyline parlay because we want as many people obviously to get in on it. If you want to do a parlay with like, Green Bay in Cleveland or something like that, I also love that Moneyline parlay. I know we don't get the boosted odds, but I just. I mean, I think Chad's in agreement to me. I do. I do think Green Bay is a live dog tonight to pull the offset up. I'm one line around Robin. Chad. We went with Seattle, Chicago, Cleveland. Chad got the LA Rams in there, you sicko. And the sickest one of all can't quit it. Go on the Giants to finish it off.

[Chad Millman]

Here's my thing. I think I'm on the right side here. I know you don't agree with me, but the money has come in on the Giants.

[Simon Hunter]

I know. I'm just scared. The Dexter Lawrence thing scares the shit out of me.

[Chad Millman]

Well, look, I'm a believer. I think the Saints shouldn't be five and a half, five points favorites against anybody.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I agree.

[Chad Millman]

The wise guys agree with me. They've moved the number down from five to four and a half. So I'm putting them in there because you got to believe in the New York pretending to play football Giants. Hashtag haptic. Thank you, Chris Raybaum.

[Simon Hunter]

I just want to say what people understand what I'm working with. I'm looking at our text chain. Exactly this, Chad. Understand if I like the Chiefs. My text was Panthers or Chiefs for big balls. How could I be more clear? You're a crazy person. Because I was like, what? Maybe I worried it weird. Now I'm looking at. I'm like, how did he not. How could I do you put a question mark?

[Chad Millman]

Was there a question mark at all?

[Simon Hunter]

You're hilarious.

[Chad Millman]

I like. You know what? That's so funny. Oh, you said you did Panthers or Chiefs for big balls, question mark. I don't know why I interpreted that as you thinking, you know what it was because you were so on the Chargers on Tuesday and true. And I was, too. And now I'm on the Chiefs. I'm like, did we come to a mind meld? So I was just. That's really what it was. And I was so excited. Simon, what are your biggest bets right now?

[Simon Hunter]

Minnesota, Miami. Right now, jump off the top. You know, if you could get the plus seven with Cleveland. With me, like, I just been hammering that. As soon as we get done this call, I'm literally going to PA with my aunt from England. We're making a quick stop at a sports book, giving her the whole experience when I'm carrying on a book bag full of cash and I'm hitting that last book that still has a 7 over in PA so, yeah, heavy right now. Cleveland, Minnesota, Miami.

[Chad Millman]

Listen, the family that bets together, I want you to give your aunt a very hearty English hello. Hello, Auntie Scoots roulette. Who is your scooter let pick this week? When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.

[Simon Hunter]

Let's play scoot roulette. Did you not win last week?

[Chad Millman]

I had Denver and I think you go first, but I think you had Green Bay.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, yeah, but you're coming off. You had won the week before. All right, I'm just trying to keep it fair.

[Chad Millman]

I appreciate that. I'm going Cleveland, you son of a bitch.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I knew it as soon as I said all right, well, let's flip it then. I'll go, I'll take your Vikings. I'll go five and a half Vikings.

[Chad Millman]

I was trying to figure out what exactly is he going to say when I say I'm going with Cleveland. I thought you'd say like, you motherfucker. Listen, before we get out of here, we got to bring in director of research Evan Abrams for the final word. You better make us feel good, Evan.

[Simon Hunter]

The last word with Evan Abrams.

[Chad Millman]

We're finished talking.

[G]

We're going to start off talking about Mr. Enigma. That's what we're going to start off talking about. If you know what I'm talking about, then you know if you've seen the Netflix documentary, of course I'm talking about Aaron Rodgers. He had said this week that he is reinventing, redoing his home in New Jersey. So it sounds like he's very comfortable at home enough and he's not comfortable on the road and that's actually showed up in his stats this year. So at home, his passer rating 20 points higher than the road. His completion percentage 7 points higher. Home versus road, he has 10 more 20 plus yard plays at home than he does on the road. On the road this year, Rogers is completion Percentage over expected is the worst of any quarterback in the NFL. Any quarterback.

[Simon Hunter]

Holy.

[G]

In Rogers three total covers this year. Opponents have only scored 33 total combined points in those games. So if Miami can put points on the board, I'm not exactly sure how the jets are going to stay there. Now I'll give you this as well. So Sunday night Miami was minus seven. Of course now it's down to five and a half. Here we go again. Every single week the jets are getting action. Only two games have seen action on the board as of this morning. The jets and the Rams Bills are down to three and a half. Jets are getting money again. I, I don't know what to do.

[Chad Millman]

But seems like this is ridiculous.

[G]

Seems like we're just going through the same thing. And I got one more for you and this is, this is right up your alley. You're going to love it. Because I knew what you guys were going to take today. We looked back at the Tuesday rundown, I was like this one's a hammer. Trivia time. Guess the quarterback with the most turnover worthy throws this season. Any guesses?

[Chad Millman]

Kirk Cousins.

[G]

Nailed it. Cousins with no way I got it right. Two more than any other quarterback. The next closest would be Gino Smith. Now he doesn't just have bad throws, he's also really crappy with pressure too. Cousins has faced four teams with a 4/% sack percentage. Now that is opponent percentage of plays that ends in a sack. Very simple in those games.04 against the spread this year, the worst of his entire career. So off the surgery, off the injury with the offensive line just not dealing well with pressure and he's throwing the ball to the other team. I don't know what to say other than you know he's facing Minnesota which you know, not only the best defense in the league but also a team with best blitz percentage like second most pressures. Should be a fun day.

[Chad Millman]

I don't know how we got to this place that we love to six to five and a half to six and a half point favorites but here we are, we're betting what we see which is fading Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers and aged quarterbacks who come off Achilles injuries. Thank you Evan. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get 150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads. Totals player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never Ordinary. At BET365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms Conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night, 7:30pm Eastern. To recap NFL Week 14, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift. Until next time. Love you.

[Justin Jefferson]

Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800- gambler.

[Amazon Prime Video Announcer]

Look around. You can find cars like these on autotrader, like that car riding your tail. Or if you're tailgating right now, all those cars doubling as kitchens and living rooms are on AutoTrader too. Are you working out and listening to this ad at the same time? Well, multitasking pro cars like the ones in the gym parking lot are for sale on autotrader. New cars, used cars, electric cars, maybe even flying cars. Okay, no flying cars. But as soon as they get invented, they'll be on autotrader. Just you wait. Autotrader. Stay farming DJ Dramos from Life as.

[Chad Millman]

A Gringo No Making smarter financial moves today secures a financial freedom for a successful tomorrow.

[Simon Hunter]

Now we have a level of privilege that our parents never had. So what do we do with it? Right? How do we.

[Chad Millman]

How do we utilize the opportunities that.

[Simon Hunter]

We have that they don't, right?

[Chad Millman]

And a lot of that is educating ourselves.

[Simon Hunter]

Educating ourselves on how to not make.

[Chad Millman]

The same mistakes they did. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. State Farm, proud sponsor of my Coultura podcast network.

[Evan Abrams]

Boost your trading strategy with signals. Unlock the powerhouse of insights that Wall street pros use to dominate the market. Signals helps drive higher returns using predictive analysis from $70 billion in consumer spend across North America to help you capitalize on every investment opportunity. Don't wait on outdated reports with signals. Observe the impact of real time spending as it unfolds. Uncover tomorrow's market moves with today's real time data and transform your investment approach with us. Start your free 14 day trial at.

[Justin Jefferson]

Joinsignals.Com High5casino is a social casino with real prizes and big Vegas hits. @high5casino.com the hottest games right from Vegas and all winnings go straight to your bank account, hundreds of exclusive games, free daily rewards, and come back to get free coins every four hours. Visit High5casino.com or download the High5casino app. High5casino is a social casino.

[Simon Hunter]

No purchase necessary.

[Chad Millman]

Void were prohibited play responsibly.

[Simon Hunter]

Terms and conditions apply.

[Chad Millman]

See website for details at highthenumber5casino.com if.

[Justin Jefferson]

You'Re a facilities manager at a university, you know students rely on the cafeteria for breakfast, lunch, dinner and the occasional late night snack. So when a dishwasher breaks down and dirty plates pile up, the mess hall can turn messy in the blink of an eye. Enter Grainger. With over a million industrial grade products and fast delivery, the product you need now is never far away. So you can turn that dishwasher back into a lean, clean washing machine. Call click grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.