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- [00:00]
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DSW Advertiser
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- [02:32]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Millions of books on Amazon, there's a reading feeling for everyone.
- [02:35]
Chad Millman
For example, Juan's as he drifts away.
- [02:39]
Amazon Books Advertiser
To Nirvana after only the first chapter is different to Maya's when she discovered.
- [02:45]
US Cellular Advertiser
The narrator was in fact the evil.
- [02:47]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Twin, which is also different to Noah's. Aw. Anytime the cute cyberpunk is mentioned, even.
- [02:53]
US Cellular Advertiser
Though in reality he'd be totally out.
- [02:55]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Of his league from two to Aw.
- [02:59]
US Cellular Advertiser
Amazon Books that reading feeling awaits.
- [03:10]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tatami John Home studio, which is actually my studio in a hotel in Philadelphia. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter Edo Simon Chad.
- [03:38]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Welcome to the Birthplace of Freedom Philadelphia.
- [03:41]
Chad Millman
I'm feeling very free. It is a beautiful, beautiful day in Philadelphia. You always worry when you're doing these live events. And we have our live event at the Wicked Wolf and Center City in Simon's hometown. You always worry like isn't going to be raining and does that keep people from getting to the polls? Or in this case to the Wicked Wolf. We are going to gather with friends. We're going to do a live show. We're going to watch the niners cover the two and a half against the Rams. That number is already up to three. Going to bet and sweat some special bet 365 boosts with all of our fans. By the way, even if you're not there, you will be able to play the bet365 boosts along with us. More on that in a minute. Today is our NFL Week 15 Best Bets episode. Simon and I will Narrow down our five our five favorite picks to put into the Favorites $100,000 Pro Football Pick Em contest. Presented by bet365. Sign up now. Favorites.actionnetwork.com we'll get into the foxhole. We'll give out our Tommy John Big Balls Bet of the Week. We're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets. We'll get to our boosted Moneyline Underdog parlay, the Underdog round robin and so much more. Bets are rolling in. Lines are moving. It has been a weird week with lines going up and down and up and down and up and down. Some crossing key numbers. Decisions need to be made. As our Volume podcast boss Colin Cowherd likes to say, there's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5, sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never Ordinary. At BET365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply all right, it's Thursday. As always, Thursdays during the season, we like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are. The lines move based on our conversations and the pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls.
- [06:30]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Hello?
- [06:31]
Chad Millman
Who's there?
- [06:31]
Amazon Books Advertiser
I'm talking.
- [06:37]
Chad Millman
Baby.
- [06:37]
Amazon Books Advertiser
What you doing? Yeah, start with the Thursday game. We've seen this number move right. We both liked 49ers at two and a half. Now most books are showing three. Let's still take it at three. But obviously you want the best of the number, so shop right if you find the two and a half because that is the professional siren. I don't know, made you too many pros taking it at minus three. I know plenty that are hammering this two and a half aside. We're not on a lot of pros I've talked to. They like Miami. Maybe it's a game you want to discuss or we can just keep it moving, but I think they view it of this Houston teams are still a little overrated that Miami is not as bad as we perceive. It's a nice spot to back this Miami team I guess in their perspective. So that's one that wasn't really on my radar. I was shocked to hear so many guys like that side. Another game maybe will end up as our one of our five. A lot of the pros love this Jags number just like we did at three and a half and it really is all about this jets team. Get too much respect and I thought it was going to be a lot of professionals on the jets once again, but it seems like it was just a small group playing the number at two and a half. Three on that Jet side and most pros align with our view of it taking the Jags at three and a half. It's just really about two bad teams and one of them is getting over a field goal that just to me feels pretty easy to take that Bad side. A game that, you know, we've talked a lot about. I know that we like Pittsburgh. Every pro I've talked to you, Chad, is on this Eagles team. So that's one maybe we'll have to dive into. Yeah, it's. It's a really shape up to be a pros versus Joe's kind of game. And we might actually there's a couple pros out there that they've taken the Pittsburgh side. But yeah, right now, Chad, it looks like we are the Joe Public side in that Pittsburgh Eagles game. Another one. We love that. You know, we kind of lose. Hesitant, I guess, on Tuesday, but the more I've looked into it, it feels like it's a good spot. This Colts number, we've seen it come down to four and a half. Some books now are three and a half. That's one we'll definitely have to dive into, Chad, because I love the professionals, love the Colts, Tampa. I really love this side. It's more split than I thought it was going to be. There's some professionals that really like the Chargers. Once again, it's all about the number. I know some pros have taken the charges at two and a half, but people like me have bet heavier on the other side of Tampa plus three. So that's gonna. That's been a really interesting back and forth. I'm actually on the wrong side of this one, apparently. I like Green Bay minus two and a half. Talked to a lot of pros who like the Seahawks. I feel like I'm dug in. They're dug in. They believe in the Seahawks defense and I believe in just that the Green Bay is just one of the better teams running the nfc playing against a Seahawks team that feels like they've caught teams in the right moments and they're kind of been punching above their weight, that they're a little overrated, overinflated right now. So I'm excited to hear your opinion on that. Now that we sit here on Thursday and the last one, me and Chad, we talked about Detroit. It was minus one and a half on this show. We humbly try not to say it's just because of the show. This number moved, but we saw it happen in real time. We gave it out and all of a sudden it was two and a half by the time we were closing the show. So not that shocking. The public and a couple of professionals have lined up on the bill side when it gets to two and a half and a three. I know plenty of pros that love this Lions team. Especially when it touches too. So, yeah, there's other games we haven't touched on just because the number of lines move so much, but those are the ones that really jumped out to me. A lot of noise. Those obviously the most talked about games right now, like especially, you know, I was with five professionals last night. Everyone had a really strong opinion either on the Eagles game or on this Lions Bills game. So, yeah, really fun week breaking these all down.
- [10:01]
Chad Millman
Oh, that's awesome. I'm so glad to hear. The one quibble I have with you is I feel like we talked a lot about Miami. I was like, I wanted to like Houston and the more I dug into it, the more I liked Miami. I have it on our list to discuss today, so we're definitely going to get into that one. Don't, don't forget, folks, if you're listening to this live, tonight is our free favorite podcast Watch party at Wicked Wolf in Center City Philly. I'm in Philly already. Matt Mitchell is in Philly already. Simon, of course, is just outside Philly and on his way in later today, 7pm going to watch the Thursday Night Football game between the Rams and the Niners. If you're watching live and you're in the area, come on by. There's time to rsvp. You got rsvp if you're listening to the podcast version. We had a blast. It was so much fun. All right, let's get rolling. Dallas at Carolina. Carolina, Look, Carolina is at two and a half right now at bet 365. It's at three at a lot of places. So this was on the list as if we have to. We're going to bet it. I pulled the trigger. I bet the Panthers at two and a half. It's kind of remarkable to say this, Simon. Do we think the value is lost on the Panthers right now as favorites? Like, is it just gone?
- [11:32]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah. And this is a game that feels like the professional is better early in the week. And then they're not so much betting at this point. Right when the Carolina was a dog or they opened at minus one, that's when we saw a lot of the money coming. Like last night, a lot of guys I was talking to, they're just not interested in it just because of all the line movement. And it's, it's getting to the point like we talked about, where I might have to bet the Cowboys because like he just said, the line might move too much and eventually if it does, stay at three and gets up to three and a Half. That's where the value would be. But at two and a half chat, I can't fault you for taking the Panthers like this. Feels like it should be three. Wouldn't be shocked if it lands right on three. I mean, these are just two bad teams, right? And one team is really banged up in the Cowboys. On the flip side, we've seen this Panthers team be a totally different team since their bye week and they've really turned things around. And like you said, eventually the luck of all the, you know, Bryce Young throwing off his back foot, perfect dimes drop into the corner. It's. It is going to run out. Like, it's just he's been playing so above his head right now that everyone's turned right. Everyone I talk to now is back in on Bryce Young, this Panthers team. So you're right for feeling like it might be the time to jump off. I just view it as. I don't know, it feels like they're still valuing this Panthers team just because I do view them as the better team and they are at home against a Cowboys team that we've seen has struggled on the road. So, yeah, it's. It's a tricky number, Chad, because it's. It has moved so much. So it's just one I've just avoided altogether.
- [12:59]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I don't think we'll get it in the contest because I think in the contest it'll be a two and a half. Like you and I, we both like to not look at the numbers until after the Thursday show. Just so we're not cheating a little bit in the contest. We like to do it at the end of this, this. This program. So I haven't seen the way it's been sitting at two and a half all week. At bet365, the Panthers will be at two and a half in the contest. So we'll have to see, like, with the rest of the games we're talking about, I felt pretty confident about five we could get to without the Panthers, but after hearing sharp calls, I wonder if we're going to be able to do that. So right now it's on the outside looking in. I would say there are probably three games that are waffling between that two and a half and three this week that we're going to talk about. This is one of them that if it's a two and a half, we like one side. If it's a three, we like the other. So I'm excited to dig into those as well. Cleveland at Kansas City Cleveland right now at bet365 is +4. There are a smattering of 4 1/2 out there. Don't forget this was at 6 1/2 on Sunday night when we first flagged it. I went back, I listened, I looked at her notes from Tuesday. I think we were being cowardly, hoping we could avoid this game. I actually put in my notes, we both said we wanted to avoid this game given how snake bit we were last week when we had the Browns and we had the Chiefs and neither went our way. But how are we like not ignoring the ne the teams here and just playing the number. If you look back at that Browns game and Nick Giffin, Dr. Nick with the Luck rankings, had a analysis of the Browns in that Steelers game and showed how it's, it's beyond like bad luck what happened in that game and how they should have covered. I feel like we have to be taking the Browns here.
- [15:10]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah, don't fault you for that. I mean we did talk about if it's. It's pretty simple at this point. If it's above 3 right against Mahomes, yeah, you should just fade them. But that's just my issue here, Chad. It's just too easy. And I guess that's just me, someone that's done this a long time that usually when it's too easy, it's not as perceived and we can have all the unlucky stats in the world. It doesn't account for Jamis. Like that's, that's the issue with that metric. It's like were they unlucky against Denver or is that just the full James experience? Like him throwing that pick? Once again, have you drove the field and we're on the four law four yard line and like last week you talked about that Turner rehab kind of killed the game right at the pick to the defensive lineman. So that's my hesitation here is just there's other dogs I feel like I have a better read on that can be more consistent and I trust the number more than we play this number. And neither of us would be surprised if the Chiefs defense just completely dominates and destroys this Browns offense. The reason I want to join you on the Browns is just because of what we talked about. That D line against the Chiefs offensive line, that should be a huge matchup for that Browns team. Like Myles Garrett, even with all of his injuries, should be able to get to the quarterback just about anytime he won. Especially if they're doing what Andy Reid's been doing, which is not leaving Tight ends in the block. Like even last week they knew that guy was struggling that that tackle and it's like Andy Reid wasn't leaving anyone in the chip. He wasn't have the running back chip on that side either. It was like they're trying to run their. Their same old offense where they just can't. Like it just is not the same offense as they've been around before. So I'm you Chad. It's like if we had to force in Cleveland I could get behind it. It's just. It makes me uneasy because of the Winston effect. It's just been as fun as it's been betting on him. It's been obviously a terrible experience these last couple weeks.
- [16:59]
Chad Millman
Well look we got, we got a win for all the Jamis reasons. Throw in two pick sixes and by the way the pick at the end of the game which would have allowed him to get into the back door. Yeah and then we loss with Jameis when there was a turnover by Jameis with three minutes, you know a little more than four minutes left in the game before the Kaderius Tony fumble on the punt where they were driving on the Steelers 35 yard line and they were down 2714 and James turnover. Here's what I would say. Number one, your point about the offensive line for the Chiefs is massive. They did a terrible job defending against the Chargers defensive line. And the Chargers defensive line is not even close to as good as the Browns defensive line. Right. The Browns lead the league in pressure rate going against an O line. They cannot protect Patrick Mahomes for an extended period. We've seen it week after week after week. Whether it's Wanya Morris, DJ Humphries, it doesn't matter who's on the edge at left tackle. They have to change their offense. You're right, they're not bringing anyone into Chip. Instead and Reed is just deciding we're going to throw the ball in under half a second, right? It's going to be two step drop five seconds we're done. And so or not five seconds like two step drop half a second, 0.5 seconds, we're done. Get the ball out. So that's number one. The Chiefs defensive backfield by the way, literally signing guys off the street. Steven Nelson, who they drafted in 2015, played a few years with them and retired was just signed to the Chiefs practice squad because they have no defensive backs. Andy Reid's comment when he was signed, this was great. He was a good player when he was here. He hasn't been there in like five years. So I don't think the Chiefs can cover anybody. And if they can't cover anybody, then Spagnolo can't blitz the way he likes to blitz because he doesn't have any help in the back end of the defense. So I know it's all. It doesn't matter. It's all up to Jameis.
- [19:14]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah.
- [19:15]
Chad Millman
Will he throw that stupid pick? But like, matchup wise, number wise, it's great. The Browns are decided to take.
- [19:22]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Right.
- [19:24]
Chad Millman
But you're right, we're betting on J. At the end of the day, it's James, it's Jameis. What are you gonna do? So Miami at Houston. Like, we discussed it on Tuesday for a while and said like, because I.
- [19:38]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah, I was talking to me personally. It's not all about you, Chad. I was just talking me personally not having a read on it.
- [19:43]
Chad Millman
Wait, what do you mean?
- [19:44]
Amazon Books Advertiser
You were acting like. I like, dismissed that we never talked about it. I was just more of a viewpoint of I just don't have a read on it. Like, I wanted to be on Houston, but it seems like most professional I've talked to they like Miami. So it's just. It's one of those things I can avoid. I would avoid.
- [19:57]
Chad Millman
I'm like a professional and I want to be on Houston, too. And then I did my research and realized, oh, my God, I might have to be on Miami. It's what I do. Simon, what am I missing?
- [20:06]
Amazon Books Advertiser
What's your research saying about Miami?
- [20:08]
Chad Millman
My research about Miami is saying that they're actually better in the red zone than we think offensively, they're better defensively in the red zone than we think and that this is probably a pretty good matchup for them if the number is at three. At two and a half, we probably like the Texans at three. I lean Dolphins. I have not bet it. I don't want to put it in the contest. I was really thinking this would auto this. This was going to be an autoplay for me on the Texans coming off a buy as healthy as they've been all season. But I still can't get there because I think the Dolphins are better than we think.
- [20:46]
Amazon Books Advertiser
All right, I agree. Then I would take Miami, but obviously we're never going to get the number we want. If it was three and a half in contest, I would love it. It's going to be two and a half. All the books are showing it's in between two and a half and three. So, yeah, it looks like it's a game.
- [20:58]
Chad Millman
We'll just avoid Zero edge at three. That's what I wrote in my notes. Dude, we're heading into a live event and you and I right now, we're mind melding. That's what's happening. Cincinnati at Tennessee. I left this on. We don't have to get into it. I really only left it on the list because I wanted to see if there were any sharp calls about it. Because we talked about Tennessee being the right side. The number feels a little bit too high. Cincinnati's basically a one dimensional team right now. The problem is the Titans might not have any dimensions. So I just like, we can skip it. We're not going to put in the contest. I only want to talk about it if there was significant sharp money coming in on the Titans. Are you hearing anything? Has anything happened in your research the past 48 hours to put you on the Titans?
- [21:52]
Amazon Books Advertiser
I mean, we talked like we're Ben the Titans just because of the number. And it's a nice spot to back the book. Like this is a game the books are going to need and you know, obviously hasn't worked out totally this year, but historically that's the exact spot you want to be on. And from my view of like the professionals that like this side, it's really about something we've talked about just that O line with Joe Burrow and the fact that, you know, the strength of Tennessee is up the middle. So that means he'll be having pressure right on his lap, which we've seen him struggle with. Right. And obviously this season he's putting on one of the best performances he's ever seen by a quarterback. So they've navigated all that pressure, not just from the side, up the middle. And he's found a way to make it work. But, you know, like we talked about, we. We want to take it just because of this number. And it feels like Cincinnati got away with one last week. Right. Like, that was an incredibly lucky. When we've been. We've been behind those lucky covers. That was an incredibly lucky cover by that Cincinnati team. So it just feels like what most pros view, we'd view the same way. It's an overinflated line. Should be three, three and a half. You're getting five. Good luck. If you're back in Will Levis, it's just, it's a tough spot and a tough number to be in.
- [23:05]
Chad Millman
Will back in Will Levis at five actually feels scarier than back in Jamis at four and a half because at least Jameis we know can get the ball down the field and he will be able to find open receivers and score touchdowns. I don't know if Will Levis can do that.
- [23:21]
Amazon Books Advertiser
No. We're down 10 with Jameis. I have some confidence. I'm down 10 with Will Levis.
- [23:26]
Chad Millman
No cons.
- [23:27]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah, it's exactly. It's over.
- [23:29]
Chad Millman
It's a dead bet.
- [23:30]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah.
- [23:31]
Chad Millman
So I didn't put this in the, in the script, but you mentioned in order this would be where it is. You mentioned the Jags at plus three and a half. Yeah, you know, like, I'm surprised there's that much activity from professional betters on the Jags at three and a half. Like there's, like we said on Tuesday, lame duck coach versus an interim coach, A backup quarterback who's not very good coming off a preposterous win, an over the hill quarterback who's not as good as he used to be coming off a preposterous loss. I guess the, the hook is what hooked people.
- [24:16]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah. And I'm also just a believer in that. This team has been the Jaguars again. It's all. When you get to this time of year, you're looking for a bunch of stuff, but I really do like to focus on home in a way splits. There are just some teams that perform well at home and some that do not. And we've seen this season, this, this Jaguars team, whether it's Trevor Lawrence or so far, Mac Jones, they have played better when they're at home. And you know, early in the year they played Green Bay. That was a game I famously made us bet Chad was KD me for because Green Bay was outplaying Jacksonville all the way to the very end. I got really lucky. The running back laid down at the one yard line. Green Bay wins 30 to 27. We cover that. Three and a half. Minnesota went down at Jacksonville. Right. That was one of the ugliest, sloppy, sloppiest games you've ever seen. Jags covered that game. They lost 12 to 7. Like another weird game that they somehow covered. Then they obviously got rolled at Detroit, we all remember. But then they went on their bye week and we've seen that since their bye week. They played Houston at home. They lost 23 to 20. A nice. Once again, me and Chad were on that number. We covered the back door, the three and a half. And then last week, like we already talked about, they were down six nothing heading to the fourth quarter. The kick a field goal ended up getting a Touchdown. They went 10 to 6 with Mac Jones. So it's, it's A team that, as much as you want to say it's a lame duck coach and it's a team that's given up, they're clearly still playing hard and putting it all together. And it's clearly a team that the market is still not valued. Right, Right. I mean, it's back to back weeks now. They've been three and a half. And to me, that's my view of it, of it feels like once again the jets are being a little overvalued. I get it. Aaron Rodgers did look better last week, but like we talked about, he's been incredibly inconsistent and maybe they did find something. Chad, I'm about to get burned here by backing the Stragwires team, but to me, it just feels like I'm playing the number where it's like, why would the Jags not win this game outright? Why is this not closer to a pick? These are very evenly matched teams, especially when you add in the mix that, you know, Mack Jones, we've seen it now back to back weeks, he finds something late in the games and he can turn it on. This is a Jets defense that can be passed on like it's not this juggernaut, get good stops kind of defense. So that's just my view of it, Chad. It's really about playing the number and just that it feels like once again this jets team's overvalued, especially the fact that they're coming off a cover for a lot of better. So we've just seen, especially in the Action app, all the money, all the tickets. Right now feels like you're on the jets and a couple books have moved it from three and a half down to three just to protect against a lot of professional money coming on the Jaguar side.
- [26:52]
Chad Millman
All right, so I'm leaving it on the list right now. Our list of five includes Cleveland at four and a half and the Jags at three and a half. We're going to get to a streak of games where it's going to be the ones that we really feel strongly about, but as usual, we're starting off scary. Speaking of scary, I'm just saying this game, we have no intention of putting it in the contest, but the New York giants are now 16 and a half point home underdogs against the Ravens. I just put this one on the list because the number has gotten so outrageous. This has to be a wise guy play at this number. There's like the last two examples of a 16 from Evan. The last two examples of a 16 plus point dog have all been the Giants once in 2023 at the Cowboys, once in 2022 at the Eagles. 16 plus point dogs 14 and 12 against the spread since 2018. So you know, it's, it's plus money a little bit. The last time there was a plus 16 point dog at home. We mentioned this on Tuesday, Jags versus the Bills in 22. The Jags won 96. Matt Mitchell remembers it well. He did not get to eat wings with surgical gloves that day. But since 1990 it's happened 11 times. 16 plus point dogs are only five and six against the spread. So now Tommy DeVito is a quarterback. It doesn't feel like an autoplay anymore. But tell me if I'm wrong.
- [28:42]
Amazon Books Advertiser
No, I think your view of it is correct in the sense that the Raven secondary makes it that you want to bet this number because they have been back door and they are struggling against the pass and I, I totally get you coming from. It's. It's tempting. That's why they made this number so big. That's. That's what they're doing here. They're trying to suck our sin, Chad. So I'm, I'm doing my best not to bet it because I'm trying to be patient and hope this gets to 17. Because you're right. Right now it's at 16, six and a half, which is like might as well be a dead number. It's. The mathematical odds of it landing on 16 are so small. So yeah, it's. I get where you're coming from. Maybe we'll be kicking ourselves when it's. They're down eight, driving with the ball at the end of the fourth quarter against the Ravens, it's like, how did we not take this? There was no doubt they were going to somehow cover this huge number. It just moved too much at this point. But yeah, as we sit here right now, I don't, I haven't taken a position on it. I got no real feel for it. I know some pros who had bet and it's just, it's the exact same view of Chad of just this number is too big for a team that isn't a top three top four team right now in the NFL in this Ravens team, like they're just not the team of the past. So I totally get your perspective.
- [29:51]
Chad Millman
You also just wonder, is there a little bit of pride? We know the players know the spreads. We know that the Giants are looking at this thinking we're nearly 17 point underdogs at home. As bad as Tommy DeVito is as much as that defensive line might struggle without the best player in the middle of the line. Like that's a huge, huge number. Bookmakers have always told me like you basically 2x the NFL spread to get to what it would be in college. If so if this was a college number, it would be 34. Right? That would be what the spread is. That's a massive, that's a Alabama versus, you know, Eastern Carolina State University of technology number. These are NFL players still like that just it, it defies logic to me. It's if we get it at 17, we're not going to get in the contest. But if it gets to 17, I'm going to be looking for this to put a little bit of piece of action on on Sunday morning. That's what I'll be doing.
- [31:04]
Amazon Books Advertiser
That's fair.
- [31:05]
US Cellular Advertiser
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Chad Millman
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Simon Hunter
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- [34:06]
Chad Millman
Simon, I feel like this is going to have to be our foxhole.
- [34:09]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Oh shit.
- [34:10]
Chad Millman
Well look, you and I were waffling about this one on Tuesday. It's come down from five and a half to five and like, I know it's a tricky one. I know the reasons why we hesitated a little bit like with the Panthers last week are because of the Eagles defensive line and their elite rushing game and their secondary is very good. But I think there's real. And you came at me a little bit and tried to tell me that Jalen Hurts is similar to Josh Allen. But there's real issues with this Eagles passing game. They are running the ball more than they are passing the ball. Which is. Why are you laughing at that?
- [34:53]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Because I don't know. I don't know why that's an issue. And you have Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts as your quarterback.
- [34:57]
Chad Millman
It's not. It's not an issue. But if you can't pass the ball, then it's hard to win against good defenses.
- [35:05]
Amazon Books Advertiser
You know what the definition of cant is, Chad?
- [35:08]
Chad Millman
Say what?
- [35:09]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Do you know what the definition of can't is?
- [35:12]
Chad Millman
What?
- [35:13]
Amazon Books Advertiser
I don't know. You're definitely using it wrong though. You just said they can't throw the ball. They can't.
- [35:19]
Chad Millman
Not as well. They can throw the ball.
- [35:21]
Amazon Books Advertiser
I just think the hate's gone.
- [35:23]
Chad Millman
Don't try to get English on me.
- [35:24]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Well, it's just. What are you talking about? You're just. You're a crazy person. It's. Yeah, they can throw the ball if they need to. They're just a run first team right now. I just. You sound like the fans of Philadelphia. It's like, what do you guys want? You want them to throw for 400 yards and lose to the pair?
- [35:38]
Chad Millman
Well, it's affecting me right now.
- [35:39]
Amazon Books Advertiser
I don't get it. I don't get it, what people want. So I'm happy AJ Was able to laugh it off. It's just, again, I was worried in the sense of, like, yes, no one wants their star receiver and their quarterback hating each other and being in, you know, having beef. But it seemed like they both were able to talk about where. It's like, we both know that, you know, the passing game did struggle last year, and that was part of the reason the class. The collapse did happen. I think that's what AJ Is talking about. It's like that we need to get this on point, heading to the playoffs, because we're not gonna just run the. Run the ball three times against these, you know, really good teams. But I don't know. I. I have faith in Hertz. It's just like, yeah. Has he played well? No. But if they come out here and they beat Pittsburgh by two touchdowns and he throws for 250 and two touchdowns, it's like, are all their problems solved? I don't think so. Like, I don't think this is something they can just correct in a week or two. That's going on with Hertz. Right? That's like, yes. The biggest issue, again, was AJ Was open downfield in the first quarter. Hertz clearly missed him on what should have been an easy touchdown for AJ and for the rest of the game. AJ Was in a little pissy, bitchy mood the rest of the game because of that one play. And then obviously got interviewed after the game, immediately said something he shouldn't have said. And same goes to Brandon Graham. So the professionals I talked to, why they like the Eagles here is they just think this line should be closer to six and a half, seven because of that Panthers game. You're getting a five, five and a half lower number on this Eagles game. And I just. I have a hard time making the number that big like we already talked about, Chad, I just think Pittsburgh is underrated here. The number feels Too big. I'll be a sucker with you. I'll buy this Pittsburgh one and just. I'll ride the Tomlin spot. But it's like every pro I know they like this other side. They like the Eagles side just because they like this matchup for them. And obviously we haven't even talked about Pickens. Not playing in this game is a big deal for that, that Pittsburgh offense. And you know, as much you want to say Cleveland has a good defense, they don't compare to the Seagulls team. Right. Eagles are in the top three in almost every metric. That Cleveland team is not that same defense from the year before. That's why, you know, Russ could get away with throwing deep balls to Mike Williams and get away the last week that maybe we're going to get caught here, Chad, but I'm with you. It feels like we're walking to a trap, but it's like I can't avoid it. My model likes the number. I like the number. I'm happy to go against the professionals with you. It just feels like it's too inflated. And this game will come down to a field goal, which once again, Pittsburgh has a huge advantage there. They have the much better kicker right now in this matchup. So it is tough, Chad. It feels like I'm missing something here, but I can't help it. It's. It's such a big number for this Pittsburgh team.
- [38:12]
Chad Millman
We're in the foxhole with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
- [38:15]
Amazon Books Advertiser
All right. I'm a foxhole guy. We will unleash hell here in December because that's what's required.
- [38:20]
Chad Millman
My point with it with the Eagles is really, unless we believe the Eagles can completely change their game plan to prove to themselves that AJ And Jalen hurts in this passing game is fine and they're going to stop relying on Saquon Barkley for a game, don't we have to believe that this will be a run heavy game that gives the Steelers a chance to keep it close? Right. That's. That's what I believe more than anything. Whether or not I believe or you believe or anyone believes in Jalen hurts and the passing game and their ability to throw the ball, that's not who they are. They're a run first team because they have Saquon Barkley and their offensive line is amazing and their defensive line is amazing and they make it difficult on other teams because of their pressure and because of their defensive backfield. So this should play out as a low scoring game where the clock bleeds and both teams are Trying to run the ball. And that would play into the favor of the Steelers covering at five or five and a half, which is probably. We're probably going to get five and a half in the contest. So we're together on this. We might be coming at it from opposite sides, but we are together on this. And that's really all that matters. Because when you're in a foxhole, you got to believe and you got to be compadres, and you got to know that it's you against the world. And I think that's how you and I are feeling right now. Even if. Even if this feels tense.
- [39:46]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah, same with that. It's just I don't trust the number, and that's what I'm worried about. Just there's something I must be missing here, because I just will never understand why the books hung this number so high. It'll never make sense why this wasn't three and a half. So.
- [39:59]
Chad Millman
Makes no sense.
- [39:59]
Amazon Books Advertiser
It will make sense once it. Once on Sunday, we lose by a.
- [40:02]
Chad Millman
Touchdown, a hundred percent, and we're going to be disappointed. And I'm going to sit on my couch and I'm going to be like, why did we do this? But at least I'm going to know that you were with it. I didn't, like, I didn't try to talk you into it, so I'm not going to feel good.
- [40:13]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah, you kind of did, but I'm with you.
- [40:15]
Chad Millman
No way. No way. You fully came around.
- [40:19]
Amazon Books Advertiser
This is Chad's bet. I'm definitely putting this on you.
- [40:22]
Chad Millman
Oh, my God. You are a fucking coward. All right, here we go. You ready?
- [40:26]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah.
- [40:26]
Chad Millman
Guess what? It's time for our big balls bet of the week, presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great underwear. And Tommy John makes the greatest. I'd like a little credit for belting it out in a hotel room, and I didn't lose my voice or cough it out. That's exciting developments there. We're going with the Indianapolis Colts plus four at Denver. From the beginning on Sunday night, we talked about this game, and it just kind of, without doing any research, the number looked funny. It got up to four and a half. Look, the Colts are one of those teams that I think we in professional betters have more respect for than the market. I think that's reflected in the line. Like, couple that with the win streak that the Broncos have been on, including that wild game against the Browns before their buy, that they probably shouldn't have covered at all. I just feel like we have an inflation alert. You've spent the last couple days thinking about it. You're feeling strongly about it. You've spoken to the wise guys, they're feeling strongly about it. How did you get there?
- [41:45]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah, I think what you just saw at the top, though, is really about this number. And that's what a lot of guys are debating was just, isn't this line inflated? Like, this feels like it's. It's bumped up way too high. And yeah, obviously I'm jealous of you. I saw you got a four and a half and it's like that would have been ideal. That would have been the perfect number for us in the contest. But I'm not gonna let it totally scare us off if it's three and a half. I could still see us put it in just because it still feels like it's inflated. And, you know, they haven't played a ton of running quarterbacks this season, obviously, Denver, but we saw that even when I went back and watched that Lamar game. That was a way you can really kind of stiffen their front four. Like, as good as they've been at rushing the passer and getting to the passer, I've seen a couple instances they have struggled against mobile quarterbacks. And we've talked about Bo Nick's, you know, as great as he's played, we saw last week with the Browns, it's like he is still hitting a little bit of that rookie wall at this point where teams are adjusting and making it more difficult for him and that we've seen that when it, when it is off game script that he has struggled. So, yeah, I fully support you in this number. I bet it. I like the cold shear like we talked about. The only real fear here is the, the difference between this team that playing at home and on the road. They've just been a different team. They're. They're obviously way better at home. This Colts team and even Anthony Richardson, his young career, I mean, you can go back and look, he is a covering machine at home. He struggled a little bit on the road. Again, maybe that's to do with outdoors. All this other stuff that we don't know because he's only played, you know, 11 games up to this point or 12 games in the NFL. So that stuff is tough to say. But another game just like that one we talked about with the Jaguars, it feels like Pros vs. Joe's. Another week of the professionals are all hammering one side and the public is very happy thinking they're getting a good number on the other side. So yeah, Chad, I'm with you. And back in the books here and taking this three and a half four with this Colts team.
- [43:43]
Chad Millman
Also, a couple of really interesting injury developments. Riley Moss of the Broncos cornerback, the only player in the Broncos not to practice so far this week, so does not look like he'll be playing. Anyone who was watching that Broncos Browns game on Monday night knows that William Vance, the cornerback who replaced him, he just got freaking torched by Jameis and Jerry Judy. That was the reason why they stayed in that game. Every single time you looked up, he was giving up a huge, huge play to Judy with including a couple of touchdowns. So that's a big deal for the Broncos in their past defense. Also, Ryan Kelly, the Pro bowl center for the Colts, he is practicing again this week coming off injured reserve with an injury. He was limited in practice on Wednesday, but he is in the window where they can activate him if they feel comfortable with it. So that might be something that gives you a little bit more confidence betting on the Colts. Also, Anthony Richardson, you talked about it. He's got a touch of Bryce Young in him in terms of since he's been benched, he's been considerably better. Pro Football focus has him 8th in their overall passing grades, 4th and big time throws since his week 10 return. So we're on the Colts. I think we'll get him at four and a half in the contest, but I also like him at three and a half as you do. Simon. We can hear the bells. We can smell the gingerbread. The holiday season is upon us and with over 20 million pairs sold and thousands of five star reviews, let's make the Gift of Tommy John our newest holiday tradition. It always feels good to give a thoughtful gift, but it feels great to give Tommy John. You'll feel the warm glow of upgrading someone's life and with breathable comfort, they'll feel those special crinkle tingles all year long. Simon, why will you be giving the Gift of Tommy John this season?
- [45:46]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Because it's the gift that lasts.
- [45:48]
Chad Millman
Shop tommyjohn.com favorites right now for the holidays and get 30% off site wide. Save 30% off at tommyjohn.com favorites tommyjohn.com favorites I'm wearing my Tommy John's for the big live show tonight. Packed them special just for the show. All right, Big game. I thought this was going to end up being a foxhole game. Even though it was already our exact decision. I thought it might be a big balls Even though it was our exec decision. Buffalo at Detroit. Detroit's minus two and a half. We loved it at one and a half. And it moved, right? And it moved while we were on the show. Now it's a two and a half. 70% of the tickets on the Bills. So we have a reverse line move here. Which means even though the tickets are coming in on the Bills, the line has moved in the Lions direction. It's gone up. I think the Lions are the better team. Nothing I've done since Tuesday makes me feel differently. I think they might be as healthy as they've been in weeks across the defensive line. They could be getting a lot of players back. They haven't played in 10 days. The last time they did it was at home. They haven't left home since they were on the road at Indy on November 24. Where do you feel? How do you feel? What are you thinking? Am I wrong?
- [47:09]
Amazon Books Advertiser
I agree. I mean, I love the lines. Obviously, we wish it was one and a half. If it's two and a half, Chad, I could still see us putting this on the contest. Just because that was my question for.
- [47:18]
Chad Millman
You, like I would. I'm waffling a little bit at the two and a half. I don't know why, but maybe I'm. I'm losing my courage a little bit because. Because the number. Because I'm like. I'm hearing whispers about people who like the Bills, too.
- [47:30]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah, me too. And my view of it, though, is what you just talked about. I just think the lines. Even with all their injuries to the defense, I still think they're the better team overall. I mean, we haven't really talked about just because the Bills. I mean, Josh Allen, like I said, he's been Captain America and it hasn't mattered, but they have, what, 60 million in dead cat money? Some crazy, egregious number this season. Because the whole thing that went on with Diggs and, you know, they've overcome that because of him, but they have. They overcome in the sense that they're about to beat now one of the best teams in all football. In the lines at home, like we just talked about, it's like I. I get all the love and respect for this Bill's team and that this number has dip below 3. Like we talked Sunday night when this was at 3, it's like, okay, at that number, I would take the Bills, but once it's dipped under that, that. That to me is why I want to be on this. This Lions team. And our. Our hesitation here Is just that me and Chad, I don't know how many times we've been on the plus two and a half number and it's literally landed on two and we've covered almost every time on that two and a half. So maybe that's the hesitation here, but there's a couple favorites. I like this week at minus two and a half. And I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna ride with it. I just think matchup wise, it's a good matchup for the Lions team. That Bills team is as good as they are and how great Josh Allen is. You know, this Lions team, I feel like, well, to get stops defensively and on the other side of the ball, I don't know how the Bills will get stops defensively. Like, it feels like if the Lions choose to run the ball down this Bills team's throat, they'll be able to do it. Like that's. We've seen it now that this, this two headed monster is just something special with Montgomery and Gibbs. So, yeah, another game. I'm trying hard out there with. Think Chad, because I'm with you. My instinct right away was like, Bills take Josh Allen as a dog, as a three point dog. Take it now. But now we've settled into this week and the more I thought about it, it's like, oh, this is a good number. We're getting good value on this Lions team. I would honestly probably take this up to three now at this point. Like, I probably would still take Detroit at minus 3 the more I've looked in this game. So, yeah, just a tough spot for this Bills team. Cutting off such a brutal game against the Rams facing, like you just said, alliance team that's coming off extended rest at home, getting guys back healthy. This should just be a great matchup for them.
- [49:39]
Chad Millman
Also, the Bill's coming off a brutal stretch, right? Playing the Chiefs, playing the Niners, going across the country, playing the Rams in a, in a crazy game, physical game. Now they got to travel again for the Lions. Just a, it's a, it's a rough, it's a rough spot for the Bills, so. All right, good. Then I feel better about putting the Lions in at two and a half. You've kind of convinced me. You made me feel.
- [50:03]
Amazon Books Advertiser
No, I've been hitting it like I've been betting this. It was just sitting at 2. I was like, I got to keep betting this until it goes up to two and a half. And there's still some twos out there. If you want this number.
- [50:11]
Chad Millman
You know what? You've supported me, the way Tommy John supports me. You are my personal Tommy John. Tampa Bay plus three at the Chargers. You've talked about it, you've liked it. You love this one on Tuesday. Second week in a row. You like Tampa. Clearly you are seeing something. You're right. It's split. I've heard things going both ways.
- [50:35]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah.
- [50:36]
Chad Millman
So I feel like this is mostly a pro play, though. Like, I think the line is at three and it's going to go back down to two and a half. What are you seeing that makes you feel so good?
- [50:47]
Amazon Books Advertiser
It is. I told you, it's split. That the guys taking the three are professionals. And I know plenty of professionals taking the two and a half on the Chargers. So it's.
- [50:53]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah, exactly. I think it's a game that if.
- [50:56]
Amazon Books Advertiser
You'Re like, I don't want to put this in because it's so split, I would totally understand. Understand. Because it's. It's definitely a game. I was heavy on Monday and Tuesday on this Tampa team, and I've pulled back as the week has gone along. Hearing some other people's opinions and look at the numbers of, like, okay, do I really want to risk a ton of money on Baker on the road in this exact spot? But I just view this Tampa as a more complete team right now and a healthier team playing against a Chargers team that I still think they're overvalued, like, I thought they were overvalued into last week. They got away with it. Right? They had two good drives that resulted in touchdowns that really. That changed that game. Other than outside those two touchdowns, they really didn't do much and Herbert didn't do much in that game. So even, you know, I'm not trying to bash Herbert because obviously he's playing with terrible receivers right now. But he's also been inconsistent this season, which is my not coming into him this season was like, he can. He can have a really good one quarter, but then he'll have three quarters of just struggling, not doing much. And this Tampa team, they have their running backs. Like, they're not missing their top guy like the. The Jaguar. The chargers are in J.K. dobbins, and they're not missing their number one receiver like the Chargers are with lad McConkey. They have Mike Evans back, and you've seen it that they've kind of had Mike Evans be. Break glass in case of emergency. Like, they haven't really been forcing him the ball and put him in these terrible positions. To really mess with his lower body because that's, that was injuries coming off of. And looking at this matchup, you know, maybe they put Derwin James on it, but, like, I don't see anyone on the side of the Chargers. I'll be able to take away the Mike Evans factor that whenever he wants, he'll be able to get there. And, you know, as the season comes along, as great as Joe Alt has been in the offensive line, the Chargers have been overall, they're not one of the best offensive lines. Like, there are ways to attack and especially in the interior. So it's, it's just about the number for me and loving this Tampa team. Like, unfortunately, I was hoping in our contest we would get three and a half. There's no way because we already talked about it. Like, a lot of books have been moving to two and a half. So once again, it's a game that I love the number. We're not going to get the number I want and play in the contest. So if we don't want to put it in, I'm fine with that. There's other games I like as well.
- [53:01]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I mean, I think this is this one. There were three games that were on this two and a half, three line. Houston, Miami, Tampa Bay Chargers, and then this last one, which I'll transition to, which is your Simon says Green Bay two and a half over the Seahawks on the road in Seattle. And this one has been bouncing around too. I think in most places it's now at three, although it was still a two and a half at bet365. I think we'll get two and a half in the contest. I actually feel pretty good about the packers at 2 1/2. I feel better about the packers at 2 1/2 as favorites than I think I do about the box of two and a half as dogs.
- [53:44]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah, my only fear with this is I've been hitting this pretty heavy. And like, I talked to a couple bookmakers and I was like, oh, you're going to move us up to three now? And they said no. And I was like, ah, maybe I'm stepping into one here because usually when I come in, especially guys who respect me, they will move numbers off my bet. But this one didn't budge. So the books are taking a stain on the Seahawks. I know some professionals like the Seahawks here because they think their defense is still being a little underrated and that, you know, something's not read. Jordan Love. But it's like, I don't know. When I go through all their games and watch them break it down, it's like this is still a team that wants to run the ball in Green Bay. And if they can get any type of run game going, it's going to be over for the Seahawks because that just builds off the floor. Just builds off that run game. So strong the play action pass, we've seen it like Jordan Love loves to push the ball downfield off play action pass. Like if he has the checkdown of 5 to 10 yards and it's an easy 5 to 10 yards, he will take the man that's covered downfield for the 25 yarder if he can. He just loves to push the ball downfield. It's just the way Jordan Love has been this season. And we've seen the Seahawks, you know, as good as their defense has been, there are ways to attack in the ways that I think this Green Bay team can exploit. And off the, on the flip side, it's like at what point does this Seahawks team become overrated and a little overvalued, right? Like they've had a run here where they've had some really great covers and you know, shocking. They're eight and five now. Heather Division. And I get what these, these pros are coming from. But let's just break down since they're bye week, right? They went to the 49ers and they stole one, right? They got dime that whole game that Gino turned it on. They won 20 to 17. Then they played Arizona at home. A team that we, we've been on fraud watch with Arizona all season. We always talk about, we don't know if Kyler Murray is just inconsistent. If he doesn't really, you know, know how to break down game phone because it seems like the second half of the year, every time in his career he struggles so he loses, he lose. They lose to Seahawks, right? Next game they play the jets, another fluky game that they win and then they go to Arizona and beat Arizona again. So it's like I get why the public's coming in on this team after those four straight wins, but when you really go through it, it's like, are there that great of wins? I mean, we already talked about those Arizona games. The first one was a little fluky, right? They could have easily gone the other way. Jets game, same thing. So it just feels like it's a nice time for me to sell on the Seahawks team that I know professionals still buying on a me to buy low on a Green Bay team that already gave this stat and Everyone else has given it out. Vikings, Green Bay, Detroit, 28 and 3. Playing outside their division this season, like, that's just not something we can ignore.
- [56:22]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's just. Are you buying the packers losing against really good teams or the Seahawks beating teams that aren't as good in fluky ways? They don't beat the jets if they don't get that Leonard Williams touchdown return. Yeah, right, right, right. For an interception. Right. So I get it. I probably lean packers minus two and a half for the contest versus Bucks plus two and a half. But you know, we can.
- [56:48]
Amazon Books Advertiser
I mean, it's one of my bigger bets. So it's like I probably make us put a Green Bay and just because I'm so heavily invested, it's like make. Make the show be invested in it too.
- [56:56]
Chad Millman
I don't have any. I, like, I've. Look, I've bet them both. I've bet more on the packers at minus two and a half that I bet on the box at plus three.
- [57:03]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Okay.
- [57:04]
Chad Millman
So, you know, you know, like you. I probably put what, a hundred grand on the packers at minus two and a half. 200 grand.
- [57:11]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Sharp.
- [57:12]
Chad Millman
Talk about it. We can talk about it at the show tonight. Last game, quickly. I want to talk about. Because I know we want to get to Evan. The Bears plus seven. Like, like, it's just too big of a number. It doesn't make any sense. There's no way the Vikings should be seven point favorites against the Bears in the division. Like, if we didn't, if we didn't have the bias of the Bears and what happened last week and we didn't have the bias of Sam Darnold lighting it up against the Falcons and we just saw this number with teams in this division and we saw the stats for the Bears defense. We would play the Bears. We just would. I'm not saying, like, we have to. I'm actually glad that I didn't hear from Sharp calls that wise guys were coming in on the Bears at an excessive rate. But I'm just saying we would play the Bears.
- [58:05]
Amazon Books Advertiser
No, and every wise guy I talked to does like that side. Like, you know, this pro last night was saying his biggest bet of the night was bears at 7. But he said, yeah, he says he loves it at 7. But it's your exact viewpoint of like, this is way too big for a divisional matchup. But I pushed back and I said, I just, I can't trust. Caleb splits on the road home away. He's just been a totally different quarterback on the road in that verse. At home. And yeah, it's. I'm happy we're avoiding a check because honestly, I can't. I can't do another week with this. This Bears team. They've been good to us this season, so I don't want to knock them too hard. Obviously, we just caught a bad one last week. But I could. I told you, my hesitation is I could easily see Kevin O'Connell never calling off the dogs here just because they blew a 14 point lead to this, this team, what, two, three weeks ago, this Bears team. So that's my hesitation here, is that if they want to, because they are, they are the better team, the Vikings really could open up and punish this team. But you're right, normally, divisional game seven plus seven, this is way too many points for this Bears team. So it's. It's a tough one that we have to. We have to pass on, Chad. But it's like, don't make me bet this Bears team once again.
- [59:13]
Chad Millman
No, look, I think we have five games that we like even better. And preliminarily, I just want to be clear, you and I, because, like, we miscommunicated last week with the Panthers. Right now, Cleveland four and a half, Jags three and a half. Pittsburgh five and a half. Colts four and a half. Detroit two and a half. Green Bay two and a half. Like, of those six, who is your first one out? It feels like it comes down to the. It feels like it comes down to the Jags. Right?
- [59:48]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Yeah, just. I get your hesitation with the Jags. That ones. I really do just love the number. It could be. I. I told you, I'm. I'm having a tough time, Chad, with this Pittsburgh number. I'm not going to lie. I'm having a real tough time with Pittsburgh. So I let you take the Jags out. If you want to dig your heels on Pittsburgh. I'm happy with that.
- [60:06]
Chad Millman
Well, let's talk. We. We can dig. Like, it just feels like we're.
- [60:11]
Amazon Books Advertiser
We'll talk to him after a couple of drinks. We'll figure this out with the fans.
- [60:14]
Chad Millman
I feel like with the Steelers, we're making the same. We'll ask the group what should be the last one in. But I do feel like we're making the same mistake we always make with the Steelers, is trying to find a reason not to play Tomlin as a big road do in a game that we think is going to be low scoring and they'll play conservative against an offense that likes to run the ball in the Eagles.
- [60:32]
Amazon Books Advertiser
So, I mean, you're you can't lie though. Your spice senses have to be going off and being like what the fuck is this number?
- [60:37]
Chad Millman
They go off every single week with the Steelers now. Like it doesn't, none of it makes any sense. Yeah, it goes off every week with the Steelers and the Chiefs. It just does. Like the ways in which they are covering or not covering based on the trends. The Chiefs over as a favorite of three and the Steelers as an underdog. We say it happened 6 out of 10 times but now it's happening 10 out of 10 times.
- [61:01]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Right.
- [61:02]
Chad Millman
So it has to regress. I think that's what we're saying and that's, that's what we're nervous about. Simon, can you name the best ticketing app in the United States?
- [61:13]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Game Time.
- [61:14]
Chad Millman
That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, Game Time. As Simon and all of our listeners know, I love going to live games. NFL, NBA, college football, college basketball. In fact, when I did my three game three night Sportacular with my son last month, I used Game Time to buy tickets for all three games. Game Time is my favorite way to buy tickets. They've got amazing last minute deals on games and concerts and their new feature called Game Time Picks that makes getting tickets to see your favorite teams play live even easier. Game Time Picks filters out the fluff to show you only incredible deals on great seats so you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets. Speaking of which, I'm opening the Game Time app right now from my hotel here in Philadelphia. And guess what? I can get into the Philadelphia 76ers game. These are professional basketball players with potential Rookie of the year Jared McCain. I can get in for $6. Real NBA basketball this week in Philadelphia. My favorite part about Game Time. They're all in. Pricing shows me the total cost upfront. No surprises no matter where you live. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, use code Favorites for $20 off your first purchase terms. Apply again, create an account, redeem your code Favorites F A V O R I T e s for $20 off. Download game Time today. What time is it?
- [62:47]
US Cellular Advertiser
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- [63:19]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Of books on Amazon, there's a reading feeling for everyone. For example, Olivia's after learning she has quite a lot in common with a 9th century Viking is different to Luna's after the old man narrowly escaped being bitten by zombies. Which is also different to Jerome's his Eureka moment on finding the perfect new quote for his dating profile. From to Amazon Books, that reading feeling awaits.
- [63:48]
Chad Millman
Dear Toyota, I need a word with you about your Crown family. I started driving one and suddenly I love traffic. No, really, rush hour is my happy place. Intentional wrong turns feel so right. I could sit the comfort of my crown forever, basking in its elegance, feeling on top of the world. But you see how this is strange for me, right? Who gets excited about traffic? This is on you, Toyota. And send the captivating Toyota Crown family.
- [64:16]
DSW Advertiser
Toyota let's go places.
- [64:18]
Amazon Books Advertiser
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- [64:42]
Simon Hunter
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- [65:42]
Chad Millman
Time for our boosted underdog Moneyline parlay with our friends at bet365. They're going to boost the odds. They're going to highlight this two team Moneyline underdog parlay on their site all weekend. It's going to be under both game pages for the teams that we are highlighting. Remember, both games are eligible for bet365's early payout promo. Your Moneyline pick gets marked as a win if either team takes a 17 point lead, even if they lose. If you want to bet this, better to bet365. The boosted parlay this week shouldn't be a surprise. Colts and Bucks Find the boost under the Colts or Bucks game pages on bet365. Simon and I have a Moneyline underdog round robin.
- [66:31]
Amazon Books Advertiser
There will come a payday Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday Someday There will come a payday Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday.
- [66:46]
Chad Millman
Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts. Simon, correct me if I'm wrong in any of these. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins. Is there anybody I'm missing? Do you feel strongly about putting someone else in?
- [67:02]
Amazon Books Advertiser
As an Eagles fan, I have a strong opinion, but no. As a better no, I'll let it roll.
- [67:06]
Chad Millman
All right, what's your biggest bet?
- [67:09]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Colts definitely been hammering that, but again, it's if you can find the four and a half four. That's really the key for that bet. For me, Green Bay, I just can't stop betting at two minus two and a half. And I know it's usually I don't want to take this large position on a favor, but I can't help but it just feels like such a. It's such a good number right now. And last one is just Detroit at 2. If you can get the 2 to me, that's a big deal. Right now, this Lions game, I just. Me and Chad have just seen so many games land on two that I just. I don't want to get two and a half. I want to get to two. So right now, yeah. My two biggest bets are two favorites. Green, Bain, Detroit. Wow. I know.
- [67:47]
Chad Millman
Who says we can't adjust over adjust. We're just betting numbers, guys. That's all we're doing. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.
- [67:59]
US Cellular Advertiser
Let's play Scoots roulette.
- [68:03]
Chad Millman
Scoots roulette. You won last week. I lost so. Damn.
- [68:07]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Who'd you lose on? Oh, you had Cleveland.
- [68:09]
Chad Millman
I had Cleveland. You had Minnesota. Remember, I want. Remember, I got to choose first. I chose Cleveland and you were mad at me.
- [68:16]
Amazon Books Advertiser
And it turns out, no, that was just mind games. I was all mine.
- [68:18]
Chad Millman
Games did you a favor.
- [68:22]
F
Sheesh.
- [68:25]
Amazon Books Advertiser
I guess I will dig in and just say, I just love Green Bay. I'll take Green Bay. Two and a half.
- [68:32]
Chad Millman
All right, I'm good then. I'm going to take Indy. I was going to go with Indy or Pittsburgh, but I'll take Indy. Um, before we get out of here, let's bring in director of research Evan Abrams. Final word. Talk to us, Evan.
- [68:46]
DSW Advertiser
The last word with Evan Abrams.
- [68:50]
Chad Millman
We're finished talking.
- [68:52]
F
So let's start with the bye week. Obviously, buy is behind us, but that means this is going to be the last week where teams are coming off of a buy. Interesting enough. Teams who are coming off a buy facing a team who isn't just 9 and 13 straight up this season. $100 better down. $713 on the money line in this spot be the second worst season for teams off a buy over the last decade. Now this week, that's New England, Houston, Baltimore and Washington. Obviously a few pretty big favorites in there. So we will see if anyone crashes and burns. Let's go to this Philly and Pittsburgh game. Now, Simon was mentioning the George Pickens information in terms of him being out this week. In my article I wrote on Action Network, which I write every week, I talked about his impact on the game. So someone should go, everyone should go check that out. But I want to talk about a stat with the game and then something off of it. So the Eagles obviously have the best rush attack in the NFL. They're averaging 190.6 yards per game on the ground. Best mark in the league. Now, it's interesting enough and I looked this up because I was curious. Tomlin has done a really good job against rush offenses. 150 plus average. He's 23 and 16 against the number 170 plus he's nine and four. 180 plus he's six and three. And the other interesting point. So Steelers great record, 76% win percentage entering this game. This is the most points he has gotten with his starting quarterback with that good of a record since 2008 with Big Ben. So obviously that bad Pickens news is massive. But it's interesting the number is that high. So I understand you guys are kind of waffle in there. All right, I got two more quick ones here. So not too many further trips in the NFL than Tampa to la, but in the past, we've talked about travel as a negative thing, which it is in certain spots. But this is just a For what it's worth, since 2016, teams going EST to a road game in PST 84 and 60 against the spread 58.
- [70:46]
Chad Millman
Wow.
- [70:47]
F
Including 21 and 14 against the number the last two seasons this week, Green Bay and Tampa Bay. So both teams you guys like, so it fit well. And then I got one more for you. Now everyone's going to keep going against Kansas City, they're going to keep winning, and they're going to keep not covering. But this is just an interesting piece of information going into this matchup against Cleveland. So if you like the Browns, here's some facts that'll probably help. Cleveland's defense has the second highest pressure percentage in the NFL. Mahomes has taken 35 sacks this season, 11 more than any other year of his career. Between weeks one and 14, he's been sacked 23 times in his last six games. His career high for a season before this year was just 28 in an entire year. And we talk about the James part of this, but the Chiefs only have 10 takeaways as a defense this year. That is four fewer than any team who has ever started 11 and 2. So Jamis might give them an easy one, but it's not like they've been taking it away from their opponents. So we'll see what happens this weekend.
- [71:50]
Chad Millman
Evan, great stuff. You've confirmed our biases, which is all I can ask. And don't worry, the Chiefs have Stephen Nelson to the rescue, so their takeover, their turnovers are just about to skyrocket. Their takeaways are going to go nuts. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites, deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary at BET365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night, 7:30pm Eastern. To recap NFL Week 15, download us from Spotify, Apple pods. Wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review. Subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you.
- [73:09]
DSW Advertiser
Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.
- [73:13]
Chad Millman
If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1800- gambler.
- [73:41]
US Cellular Advertiser
Gifting is hard, but here's a hint. Give the gift of connection from US Cellular. Not sure what that means? Here's a slightly more specific hint. You can choose four free phones and get four lines for $90 a month from US Cellular. Your family wants new phones. How do we know? They told us. The good news is that compared to wrapping presents, you're great at getting hints. So take the hint and get them. Four free phones and four lines for $90 a month. US Cellular built for us with millions.
- [74:13]
DSW Advertiser
Of books on Amazon. There's a reading feeling for everyone. For example, Raquel's Whoa when she first entered the kingdom by Dragonback is different to Ari's Whoa when he found out there was more than one crime scene. Which is also different to Ava's Whoa, the moment when the stable boy became a stable man. From Whoa to Whoa to Amazon books, that reading feeling awaits. The holidays are here, and so is the IKEA Winter Sale. Now's your chance to make the holidays a little more magical and less expensive. Save up to 50% off on select items in store and online now through January 7th. Plus, IKEA loyalty members get an extra 10% off on sale items offer valid in the US through 17 mall supplies. Last selection may vary by store and online. See store in ikea-usa.com wintersale for complete terms. Restrictions apply.
- [75:08]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Wow. What is this place?
- [75:10]
Chad Millman
Welcome to Cloud 9.
- [75:12]
DSW Advertiser
How exactly did I get here?
- [75:13]
Amazon Books Advertiser
You're a Toyota Crown driver, and only.
- [75:16]
Chad Millman
Crown drivers ever reach this level of pure bliss.
- [75:20]
Amazon Books Advertiser
The refined but elegant design makes you.
- [75:22]
Chad Millman
Sit up a little straighter. It gives you a rush of confidence as soon as you're behind the wheel.
- [75:26]
Amazon Books Advertiser
And a feeling of all eyes on you. That's how the Crown transports you here. It's pretty awesome, right?
- [75:33]
Simon Hunter
The captivating Toyota Crown family Toyota. Let's go places.
- [75:38]
Amazon Books Advertiser
We have one more act for you this evening.
- [75:41]
Simon Hunter
I don't even need to say his name.
- [75:43]
Chad Millman
Mr. Bob Dylan.
- [75:44]
Amazon Books Advertiser
From the director of Walk the Line and Ford versus Ferrari.
- [75:47]
Chad Millman
If anyone is going to hold your attention on stage, you have to kind of be a freak.
- [75:51]
Amazon Books Advertiser
And starring Timothee Chalamet as Bob Dylan.
- [75:53]
DSW Advertiser
Are you a freak?
- [75:54]
Chad Millman
Hope so. Once upon a time, you just so.
- [75:57]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Inspired by the true story I want.
- [75:59]
Simon Hunter
To know which side he's on this Christmas.
- [76:03]
US Cellular Advertiser
They just want me singing Blowing in.
- [76:05]
Chad Millman
The Wind for the rest of my life.
- [76:08]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Bobby, what do you want to be?
- [76:09]
Chad Millman
Whatever it is they don't want me to be.
- [76:11]
Amazon Books Advertiser
How does it feel? He defied everyone.
- [76:14]
US Cellular Advertiser
Turn it down.
- [76:18]
Simon Hunter
To change everything.
- [76:19]
Amazon Books Advertiser
Think Azar, Elvis with no Direction. Timothy Chalamet, Edward Norton, Nell, Fanny, Monica Barbaro. Make some noise BD track Some mud on a carpet A complete unknown. Only theater's Christmas Day. Rated R. Under 1790, middle without parrot.