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- [00:00]
DSW Advertiser
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- [00:31]
Adnan Virk
Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [00:36]
Jason Demers
Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [00:41]
Adnan Virk
I got a lot to say here too.
- [00:42]
Chad Millman
Okay?
- [00:42]
Adnan Virk
Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
- [00:45]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le table.
- [00:55]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virkin Demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:12]
Simon Hunter
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John home studio and and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [01:34]
Chad Millman
Chad, how we doing?
- [01:36]
Simon Hunter
Well, it's going to be an interesting show because I know where you and I are leaning and I know some stats from Evan Abrams who continues to be asked to sign jerseys by our fans at our live events. People are going up to Evan asking him to sign their NFL legit regulation jerseys and put their favorite stats in Sharpie on the jerseys. So Evan illuminating in his great article that he posts on Wednesdays on actionnetwork.com in the action Network app. Download it. Illuminating the upside down year it has been for betters like us Simon who historically have cashed in betting against the favorites fading the public betting home underdogs of which we have plenty to choose from this week. Some stats from Evan Favorites have gone 71% straight up this year. Most profitable season since 2009. It's the fourth least profitable season for underdogs in NFL history. Might explain some of our challenges. We like to fade the public teams getting over 60% of the spread bets have gone 57% against the spread this year. Again, we like to fade the public. Home underdogs are 42% against the spread, which would be the second least profitable season since 1990. What do we do, Simon? We bet home dogs and we fade the public. No wonder we're having one in four weeks and just having misery every single week. Coming out on the edge on these five games, we're picking road favorites. Last week went 7 and O straight up and are 34 and 8.81% since week nine. So are six home dogs this week. Simon, you and I are curious about all of them. More than curious with a couple of them. Today is our NFL Week 16 Best Bets episode. Simon and I will narrow down our five picks and the favorites $100,000 pro football pick them contest presented by bet365. We'll get into the foxhole. We'll give out our Tommy John big balls bet of the week. We're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets, our boosted Moneyline underdog parlay. You can guarantee tea. It's going to be two home dogs and we'll talk about the underdog round robin and so much more. Bets are rolling in. Lines are moving. Decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast boss, Kellen Cower likes to say, there's a sea of money out there. There's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast, presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get 150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites deposit $10, place a bet for $5, get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1 or 1800 bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions, restrictions apply. It's Thursday. Wise guys had been blowing up Simon's phone. He already teased on it before we came on air. What they think about some of the decisions we're making. Lines have been moving since we've been talking. Simon, let's do sharp calls. Hello? Who's there?
- [05:35]
Chad Millman
I'm talking rain.
- [05:38]
Adnan Virk
Rain.
- [05:38]
Simon Hunter
Telephone rain. Somebody saying, baby, what you doing?
- [05:43]
Chad Millman
Yeah, off the top. People want to know if you're all right. Chad. I had a couple calls about chad taking buffalo minus 14. They're just wondering if you're all right making that your. Your pick there with all these home dogs this week. So pretty easy week. Honestly, Chad, I think every pro I talked to for the most part is on the home dogs. Couple guys I've talked to like the Eagles. It is really about the number there. I know a couple guys that took a position on the Eagles when it was two and a half, and then when it went back to three this week, they took another position on it, which to me makes sense. It. It makes me leak a little confidence because I thought it was just going to be a straight up pros versus Joe's, but shaping up to be one that's not as heavily professional on the Washington side where the other dogs like these home dogs. We don't even need to talk about it. Basically the pros love every home dog this week. The only one I think people are hesitant on is. Is that Bears number because it has moved down. Right. I think if it was still seven or at seven and a half, that would just be in the same exact conversation we're having right now. Let's. Let's dive into the favorites, though, with the pros of bet. I don't know if we're gonna talk about it today, but that chief's lines moved like crazy. So that was.
- [06:48]
Simon Hunter
We're definitely gonna talk about it today.
- [06:50]
Chad Millman
Okay, I'll save it. Then that one that jumped out to me where it's like the books have left themselves open. So why to a middle here? So it's very telling that they're moving it to where they've at. They've moved it to now. So that's a game where. Yeah, we'll definitely need a breakdown. A favorite that me and you kind of liked that I've talked a couple pros on the other side, the Colts. I mean, again, it's not like we're madly in love with it. It was just a favorite. We floated out there. We kind of liked. Just about every pro I talked to likes the other side of that one. And again, we started out this week like in Miami. Most pros I've talked to like the 49er. So, yep, they're not on the same side as us. But it feels like for the most part, a lot of the home dogs be like this week. It seems like that's gonna be the professional side this week.
- [07:34]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm not surprised by that at all. Like, the more I looked at the board, the more I dug into this. And by the time we get to Wednesday afternoon You know, opinions start to solidify a little bit. You start to see some of the practice reports and like, similar to what you, the feedback you've gotten. I started to walk away from the Dolphins. I, I was not feeling confident about the Colts. I, I, we're going to talk about the Bills game. I'm curious to know why they feel, why they're against me.
- [08:06]
Chad Millman
They're not against it. They were just shocked that a week of, like you just said, six or seven home dogs that you went with. Yeah, well, one of the biggest favorites on the board, you know, that's fair.
- [08:15]
Simon Hunter
That's also part of the challenge of doing a show on Tuesday. Right. Is like, you can only do so much on Mondays when you're researching this stuff, and you start to get more intel on Tuesday and more intel on Wednesday.
- [08:27]
Chad Millman
I told him, I think you just have ptsd. You're a man that you're just, Every week, like we talk about, we've been taking these dogs and we're just getting the shit kicked out of us and the only one covering for us are our favorite. Like, betting favorites have just been good for us for these last couple weeks. So that was my excuse for you to these people. I was just like, listen through the fucking ringer, man. He's just, he, he knows you should take jets three and a half, but he, in his mind, he's just like, fuck them. I'm just going with the Bills and I, I won't be mad at myself if they don't cover. So that was my view of it.
- [08:56]
Simon Hunter
Well, look, you're not wrong. And we're going to get to the jets three and a half. Because we did come back around on that. We're going to get to that soonest. First, let's talk about Kansas City, which is now at three and a half.
- [09:06]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [09:07]
Simon Hunter
And I'm putting this in here. I don't think we're going to play Houston at three and a half or Kansas City at three and a half in the contest. Mainly, I want to reiterate that we bet Kansas City on Sunday night, Monday morning at plus two and a half, and then yesterday, because you are my BFF and you're good to me, you sent me a text to let me know that the Texans had moved to three and a half at bet365. Because I told you in the shower on Tuesday morning, I was thinking this thing, which is now a two and a half, it's going to get to three, and if it gets to three and a half, we're going to have to middle this. It was 3 1/2. I'm assuming you've bet the Texans at 3 1/2. I've bet the Texans at 31 /2. We are very much hoping for the middle.
- [09:53]
Chad Millman
Yeah. The most shocking part is we did our show Tuesday and Mahomes practiced and there was a couple books that moved them back up to plus two and a half. The Chiefs. And I was like, what do they know that I'm missing? Maybe you look gingerly in the practice. Maybe it wasn't moving right. And they were like, oh, we'll get ahead of it. And then. Yeah. Went to bed and woke up to a frantic call in the middle of the night. And it was like just basically that number was moving the other way. And the Chiefs were back now to one. Then sure enough, you know, 8 or 9am I feel like it was back up. On Wednesday, it was back up to three for the Chiefs. And then by the time, you know, we texted later in that day, it was up to three and a half for just about every book. So, yeah, honestly, we talked about this. It's like once it's above 3, especially with this Chief's team, I want to be on the other side of it. So I was already going to try to play the middle one. I was at three, happy. I was patient and waited, let it get to three and a half. And now it's. I mean, for anyone that bet the two and a half on the Chiefs, you have to try to play the middle here. You can't just roll this value. Like this is such a Chiefs line where time and time again we've seen land on three. Very telling by the sports books because of how much early money they got on the Chiefs that they even put this at three and a half because they, they knew if they put this at three and a half, they're just going to get hammered by not just professionals, but the public. Right. I think everyone's kind of in on the, the gig of this Chiefs team just doesn't blow out teams. Now obviously we saw it happen last week, but yeah, it's. It's just interesting that they've moved this to three and a half and now it's just sat there for coming up on 12, 13 hours here. So the books are telling you what they need right now. They need Houston money, clearly.
- [11:32]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think it's going to get down to three. It's already juiced in that direction. I think if you want to give the three and a half and you're Listening live. Go get it, because it's not going to last long. I hope it's there when listeners are tuning in later today after the show has been posted.
- [11:47]
Chad Millman
Well, see, I told you. I talked to sportsbook guys and they were just like, this is on Tuesday again. They're like, every teaser, every single teaser on Saturday is Chiefs up to eight and a half and the Ravens down to 0.5. Like, they just got slammed with that. So that, to me is just. They already know they're kind of screwed because this is a standalone game on a Saturday. But the fact that they're just leaving this at three and a half, like, like you just said, it could go down to three by kick. But they're in such a bad position right now, it might, you might be able to still get it come Saturday.
- [12:18]
Simon Hunter
I think it's not a bad spot for the Texans if you think about it. At three and a half, their defense has been playing better. Their pass rush is one of the best in the NFL, if not the best in the NFL. Mahomes is hobbled and we really don't know what their offensive line can do. Last week they were playing Joe Tuney at left tackle. Will he do it again? Will he perform well?
- [12:44]
Chad Millman
He looked great. Obviously, for a guy that never played.
- [12:46]
Simon Hunter
It before, he really good freaking baller, right?
- [12:49]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [12:50]
Simon Hunter
And you also have to wonder, like, the Texans, you know, rush game has been so inconsistent every week with Joe Mixon, he's either getting 100 yards or he's less than 50 yards. Last week he was less than 50 yards, right? 23 yards. Will they decide to just unleash CJ Stroud, let him throw against a depleted secondary like, we don't know. So it could be a good spot for the Texans, but I'm very happy to let my middle just sort of linger and stew and simmer. It's so rare you get these opportunities.
- [13:25]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [13:27]
Simon Hunter
Pittsburgh at Baltimore. So this guy. This game was at six and a half. We liked it at six and a half. It moved down to six. Got word yesterday that George Pickens on Wednesday did not practice. T.J. watt did practice. This line is now back at six and a half. I would still take the Steelers. I'd probably still be comfortable with them in the contest, mainly because of the historical nature of this series. And it's sort of a Tomlin spot. It's a Fayette Harbaugh spot. As a relatively big favorite as a dog of three or more versus the Ravens, Tomlin is 6, 0, 13, 2 and 2 against the spread overall versus Harbaugh. You know, stats galore. The series Overall, the last 20 years, the underdog is 23, 4 and 3. Since 2015, 16, 2 and 1. Everything says it. And like, unlike the other trends where we, you know, sort of got caught last week with the Steelers and the Browns or the Steelers and the. And the fading, the Chiefs, this one doesn't worry me as much. I don't know about you.
- [14:42]
Chad Millman
No, it's. It's. It's my favorite bet every year that whenever the Ravens in Pittsburgh play, like we talk about whoever's the dog, I put zero effort and research into the number. I simply log on, go to Evan's page, look at the trends. It's like, this is one of the few games where you can just simply play the trends here. And it's. It's all about who's the dog. The bigger the number, the better. It's like you just talked about. It gets even better the higher the number gets when these two teams match up. So, yeah, Lamar having an MVP season, it feels like the only team she struggle against are Pittsburgh and the Eagles this season. Right? And this is another bad matchup for him with this Pittsburgh team that just. They just know how to play him and they know how to make them uncorfable. They know how to make them flustered. And yeah, Chad, we might eventually get burned by it, but we're up. I think we're like Evanston. We're 5, 0 betting against this exact spot. And like, we always joke about, like, are we overthinking this? Is this too easy? And we always eventually put it in the contest because we eventually do get there. So it is another number where it's like, yes, we know Lamar is not gonna go oh and 10 in his career against this Pittsburgh team, but if me and chad can go 8 and 2, Ben's exact spot over the lifetime of this for the next couple years, that's huge for us. Like, that's the dream scenario. So, yeah, we're sitting here five, zero, betting this exact spot. Nothing's changed. For me, it's all about playing the number. Have this way down. Like, I have this closer to four and a half. That's the only fear. It's the same thing as the Eagles last week, where I might be overrating this Pittsburgh team too much, and maybe I haven't adjusted enough on the Pickens injury, but at six and a half, I feel like that insurance is already built in. Like we talked about last week, that that game would have been totally different. If there wasn't a couple little turnovers here and there and Tomlin played a little more aggressive, I can't see him being reluctant and hesitant. Back to back week with Tomlin like he knows he screwed up last week. So yeah, give me a Pittsburgh team on a short week pissed off playing against a Ravens team that just absolutely blew out and dominated a Giants team that's feeling themselves. So yeah, we, we love the trends. We love the spot. So Give me Pittsburgh + six and a half.
- [16:43]
Simon Hunter
I love your confidence. I was afraid that you were going to come in and tell me you're a little bit anxious about playing the Steelers because of us getting sort of snake bit last week playing the Steelers trend and fading the Chiefs, you know, as more than 3 point favorites trend. So I'm so thrilled to hear this because I still love the Steelers here. Yeah, this is great.
- [17:05]
Chad Millman
It's all about the number.
- [17:06]
Simon Hunter
I would like to know. We should check this. We've been doing this show. Is this our sixth season? Is this our sixth season doing it together? But is it our fifth year with the contest or is it our sixth year with a contest? We'll have to figure that out. I wonder how many times we put the Steelers as dogs against the Ravens in the contest and if we've been 6, 0 with that play, if we're running, you know, because, you know, God willing, Simon, God willing, we get four more years of this show and we can have a decade's worth of data on playing the Steelers as dogs in the contest against the Ravens. Guess what? You mentioned the Jets. Took me a minute, but maybe on Tuesday I would have made this my exact decision. The good news is it's lingering out there. And now it is our big balls bet of the week presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls. Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great underwear and Tommy John makes the greatest. I don't know that there's been a better, more serendipitous match between tagline sponsor and inane segment than Tommy John having the support to give us to bet the New York jets as three three and a half point underdogs at home against Los Angeles Rams. We like this a lot. On Tuesday when it was three and a half, we both bet it there. It has moved to three. I'll tell you, it looks like it's moving to two and a half. But I don't know about you, Simon, I started to feel much better about this over the past 48 hours.
- [18:59]
Chad Millman
Yeah, and mine's like the Old school, the old school weight reason for me liking this again, the numbers back it up. I mean Rogers obviously has been playing much better these last couple weeks. But the biggest thing I like about this was it felt like a trap spot, right for the public coming on the Rams and then you factor in the weather like it's going to be what mid-20s in this game come Sunday. And this is. We're talking about Stafford here like people forget because he's been out in la. We auto faded Stafford just about every time he left that giant that Lions building, right. Anytime he went outdoors we saw Stafford would always struggle again. He's a kid that played in college ball played down in Georgia. He's just never been a cold weather quarterback. And I, I need to go through the trends with Evan here with him and outdoor games, but it feels like this is kind of a good spot to fade him. And this Los Angeles offense especially like we talked about, they're just the public darling right now. So honestly shock looking the app that there is even that amount of money coming on the jets. But I think it's what we talked about every week. These professionals are just going to keep hitting this side whether it was a good number or a bad number. They believe in this team, their models believe in this team. And yeah, three and a half contest wise Chad, I absolutely love it. Two and a half will truly take some big balls to put it in there because obviously me and you have hammered this at three and a half. Would it be shocked if this game lands on three? If the jets somehow find a way to lose this game by football at the end would not be shocked but the, the number. Everything about this just feels like a Jets outright win upset shocked the world type of game.
- [20:32]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, look we, we faded the Rams for two reasons here and we talked about this on Tuesday. Two very sexy big time wins and this team now finds itself in first place in the NFC West. Right. They are streaking as they tend to do the last couple years. Like they find their footing in the second half of the year. It's why we generally hate betting against Matthew Stafford. But they have not been the same team on the road that they've been at home this year. And like you just said, the, the jets have been okay the past couple of weeks. Like they lost a game they should have won and covered against the Dolphins they covered a game they shouldn't have. In both cases they were undone this is the scary part. By their very unqualified ill equipped head coach who knows less about clock management than just about anybody watching Red Zone on a Sunday afternoon. It's actually astonishing how bad he is at it like those. These past two weeks, the spread and the jet success has been entirely determined by his horrible, inane, stupid clock management. So if we get screwed in this game, this is why and it's why actually I didn't make it a massive bet this week is because I worry a little bit about Jeff Albrook just not understanding the basic construct of clock management.
- [22:04]
Chad Millman
And then just an amazing stat here from Evan Stafford. Four and seven straight up outdoors, 35 degrees or less, one and three under 30 degrees. So I mean I knew there was something back there was like we used to same kind of treatment we give the golf but not extreme that I just remember when every time staffer went outdoors he always struggled in the cold weather. And that could be partially why this numbers move so much, Chad, because people are just, it's again it's the old, old man take where it's like you got the weather and you have the public perception. They usually love to hammer these type of spots. So yeah, if, if you're lucky enough to still find a three, three and a half out there, I would definitely grab it now before this does go down to two and a half.
- [22:42]
Simon Hunter
I do worry a little bit that Rodgers has looked so good because he's old and he's been in Florida and everybody knows that when you're old and you're in Florida during the winter, you're going to be more spry. So does he look better? Does he look the same? Does he look worse when he's playing at home in cold weather? Here's a good stat. Last 20 years, a team that has a winning percentage of 50 to 60%. 50 to 59%. So you know, teams that like are good is might be fighting for a playoff spot, but they're not so good that they can be dominant. And we're at the end of the season, the last three weeks of the season, facing a team below.500 Allah, the Rams and the jets in this current matchup, 38% against the spread the past 20 years and since 2022, just 9, 18 and 1. So I do like that we have the jets in a good spot here. It's a home dog. Will our fidelity to the number in the spot be betrayed by the wackiness of this season? That is our question, Simon. We just don't know. But we're willing to dig in and play it. Dear listeners, it is the holiday season, so of course I'm sporting some Tommy John underwear right now. They're incredible. Don't roast your chestnuts with cheap imitators, folks. Let your sugar plums dance with the comfort of Tommy John. See what me and thousands of five star reviews are raving about and deliver those magical Kringle tingles with the gift of Tommy John. Simon, why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John this season?
- [24:26]
Chad Millman
Pretty easy, Chad. It's the gift that lasts.
- [24:28]
Simon Hunter
There's still time to throw down field with Tommy John and become the greatest gifter of all time. But time is running out. Go to tommyjohn.com favorites right now for your last minute holiday gifts. 30% off. Just in time. Only at Tommy John. Tommyjohn.com favorites what's up everybody?
- [24:48]
Adnan Virk
Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL Unscripted with Firkin Demers.
- [24:55]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst and boy oh boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [25:04]
Adnan Virk
I love you by the way on NHL Network. We're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [25:12]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture and you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [25:23]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We had all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear in NHL.
- [25:32]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Virky.
- [25:35]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [25:48]
Simon Hunter
All right, you mentioned Washington three and a half, you know, at the Eagle or hosting the Eagles right now. Another home dog alert for us. I'm, I'm with the wise guys on this. Like we played it. This was Simon says, I believe. But the more like I think about it, the more anxious it makes me. Just because I love this Eagles defense so much. Like I, I, I haven't bought out of it. I'm on the Commanders at three and a half. But it does, it does make me a little anxious.
- [26:22]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I mean it's fair. The last time they played, the Eagles beat them up. They beat them like 27, 18 or 26 to 18. So I get your hesitation and my view of it is just, how do the Eagles not have a letdown after that Pittsburgh game? I mean, they're just feeling themselves so much. I mean, Jesus Christ. Jalen hurts. Press conference. You would think this dude is averaging 300 yards per game passing and three touchdowns. Like he came in there flexing so hard for a game that was, yes, very good. But it's like, this is what we expect out of you. So, yeah, not a good look. Budgie on Hertz. That. That was not good. Yeah, this.
- [26:59]
Simon Hunter
It really wasn't. And it was kind of. It was. To me, it was a little bit out of character for a guy who, like, generally is pretty quiet, like self confident, obviously, but just hasn't been in the place where he likes to sort of go after the media, blame the media, us against the media, you know, sort of that, that Aaron Rodgers esque approach.
- [27:27]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And clearly it got to him though, where it's like, yeah, yeah, we talked about this though. I, I told you. It's. He. He gets more hate than most other quarterbacks and it is because of the weapons he has around him. Right. People just see the talent of the offensive line, the wide receivers, and obviously the running back, and they're just like, this team should be so much better than the two seed they haven't lost in, you know, September. It's just. I think that's what's probably annoying the. Out of them where it's like, man, if, you know, Saquon didn't have that bad drop against Atlanta, they. They're probably the one seed right now. I mean, they are the one seed right now. So, you know, I get where he's coming from, but I just thought it was a weird way to start that press conference. It was just, just not like you just said, out of character for Jalen Hurts. But yeah, Chad, this matchup for me, it really is just about this number and this, this type of matchup these two teams play, right. We, We've seen it this season that obviously Washington. Every game Washington plays is just a bizarre game. Either they're rolling like absolutely dominating teams, or it's going to come down to the final seconds, last possession. And you know, as much credit as I want to give to their defense, because that's probably been the most shocking part about Washington this season, is how good their defense is played. Where, you know, me and you joked about they were getting rid of basically all their best D linemen and still have found a way to put it together. But, you Know again like your hesitation, I totally understand it because, you know, they had a stretch there where they lost to Pittsburgh, they lost to the Eagles, they lost the Dallas. So now they have one, two straight. Right. They won against Tennessee, then had their bye week, then they beat New Orleans. So we've seen it that they've, they've beat up on these bad teams. But you know, I just view this game as them be able to play this one close. Chad. It's like a type of game that just because it's divisional game here late in December, both fighting for playoff spots in the sense that, you know, Eagles still fighting for the one seed, Washington still fighting to be the wild card team. It just feels like a game is going to be really close and ugly and come down to three. Now I get where you're at, your hesitation. I had a hesitation too because I found out so many professionals were on the other side. So yeah, if there's other dogs you'd rather put in there this week, home dogs, I'd be fine with it. It was just really about me trying to get ahead of it, the market, just because the number had moved so much. I really did think it was going to be three come today's show and clear. I was wrong. Should have went with the jets or the Chiefs, as my Simon says, because that was definitely getting ahead of the line moving in those games.
- [29:52]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I didn't see you as being dug in on this as a contest play. To me it was only about the Simon says and getting the three and a half and on Tuesday, like it was trending in that direction. It did get down to three, it just came back up to three and a half. And I think the difference here about the letdown is we've said this all season, physical travels, right. And Jalen Hurts can be up and down and all those kinds of things. But like their defensive line is still going to be dominant and their defensive backfield is still continuing to get better. I don't even think they've reached their peak yet. They're just so freaking good.
- [30:33]
Chad Millman
You were at the game though, that when the Eagles played Commanders.
- [30:36]
Simon Hunter
I was and bought my tickets through game time, which we'll get to.
- [30:39]
Chad Millman
Another reason I love Washington is the Eagles. I mean, people think they blew them out. They scored 20 in the fourth. Like this was a really close game and then it kind of got away from Washington at the very end. That's another reason why I like Washington, where it's like it feels like they know to match up with this Eagles team. But like the Eagles have done all season, they just wear you out with Saquon.
- [30:56]
Simon Hunter
Wear you out. They look at that 10 minute drive against the Steelers was really so dominant you couldn't turn away. It was a constant car crash. Like it broke one of the most unbreakable teams in football. That's, that's the Steelers. Like you expect them to get the stop. The Commanders have not been very good in the fourth quarter this year. We saw it against the Saints just this past weekend. But you know From Evan's article, 3 and 11 against the spread in the fourth, fourth quarter this year that's tied for worst in the NFL. So I do worry we're going to get to a place where it's late in the season, rookie quarterback, physical game. The Eagles are going to Eagle. You know what I mean?
- [31:40]
Chad Millman
That's fair.
- [31:42]
Simon Hunter
Arizona at Carolina, Wheeling Carolina when it was four, now it's four and a half.
- [31:50]
Chad Millman
It's getting up to five.
- [31:51]
Simon Hunter
I, I don't get it. Like the, the Cars are one of those teams. I just mentioned it with the Rams where they're good ish, they've shown promise but they're not dominant. They're not the Eagles, they're not the Lions. They're not even that second tier sort of packers team. There are good teams still figuring it out with an okay defense that is getting a little bit better and an inconsistent quarterback. These are the teams you fade in December. They're playing losing teams like 9, 18 and 1 against the spread since 2022 in this spot. And Kyler like has all the Cliff Kingsbury in him when it comes to fading this guy as the season goes on. 26 and 14 against the spread. September, October, 17, 21 and 2 in November or later when he is over.500 and that game is played in November or later, he's 714 against a spread. I'm wondering if this is our foxhole because we still like the Panthers, I think and this line keeps moving against us. I don't know if it goes in the contest, but I don't know if there's another game where we so definitively have been on the other side.
- [33:10]
Chad Millman
I could get in the contest. I mean I've been betting it pretty heavy this week and it was really all about the number and what you just said about Kyler. I just think, not that he's a tad overrated, but he's just been the type of guy that sucks people in after a good week and then kind of has a letdown game the following week. Especially in this exact scenario where he's playing not a. Not a good team on the road as a. As a big favorite. And I mean, you joke about it, like, when Kyler's a big dog on the road, we tend to back him. Like, historically, he's been really good as a dog on the road, but as a favorite, especially when it's above 3, he tends to struggle. And, you know, this season, you know, we've seen him have games. Like even that Minnesota game, they almost stole that game. Like, he was on the road, could have stole that game. No doubt they outplayed Minnesota, but that was another game. I felt like it was more about Minnesota than it was about Arizona. And it feels like we're in the same spot here. It's like, all right, they just had this incredible big win against a very bad team. Now they're playing another bad team on the road. The public is coming in heavy, bending them up. Even some professionals are betting this one up. And it's at the point now where especially that's above four and a half. It's like, how do we not get this one? It just feels like way too much disrespect, this Carolina team. But my only fear is I'm blind to my love for this Panthers team. Like, it's still a team that I could be overrating as much. I want to say that this game is going to be another cold weather game. I don't know how Bryce Young is going to do in the cold weather either. Like, this is not a guy who's played in the big tender like that. He's an Alabama quarterback that basically his whole career has pretty much been the warmth. And I hate bringing it up, but it's a real thing. These quarterbacks with small hands in this cold weather that is tough. Like your grip on the ball is different when it is cold like this. So a lot, a lot to think about here. A game that I'm not going to force us into. But just don't be shocked, people. This is one of our five come Sunday. Because it's like I could easily see myself especially hitting the books tonight and tomorrow getting talked into it because I just know every problem I run into for the most part is going to be on this Panther side. It just feels like this is way too inflated a number. Way too much respect, this Panthers team, I mean, this Cardinals team. And too much disrespect to a Carolina team that was due for a bad game. Right? We talked about it last week. It was going to go the other Way eventually. Right? They had been playing so well for so many weeks in a row for such a young, inexperienced team. At the end of the day, though, they. They still were competitive in that game against Dallas, but it really fell to Bryce Young. Right. Like, when that game was closer, kept getting short fields. Same thing here. Like, if we have a bad Bryce Young game, me and Chad will know right away that we're dead because this. This Panthers defense is just atrocious. So, yeah, this. This really is a bet on. Do we think Bryce Young's going to show up for us in this spot?
- [35:48]
Simon Hunter
All right, so this is going to be our foxhole, because I don't disagree with you, but we're definitely on the opposite side of the wise guys here.
- [35:55]
Chad Millman
You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
- [36:01]
Simon Hunter
The one thing I will say to counter what you're saying about Bryce Young, the Cardinals don't have any pass rushers as good as Micah Parsons. And, you know, we're going to talk about Dallas in a little bit, but he has been dominant, and that was just the biggest factor in that game. Every time red zone flipped to it, Micah Parsons was sacking Bryce Young or forcing a fumble of Bryce Young. So that was a big deal. I knew you were leaning Panthers because the last few weeks you have loved the Jags and we have both loved the Panthers. And I slacked you this morning and said, what do we think of these games for our moneyline underdog round robin? And you wanted me to take out the Jags and put in the Panthers, and I'm like, huh, that's interesting. So I knew. I knew there was going to be a lean here today, because if you're taking out the Jags for the Panthers, you're falling madly, deeply in love.
- [37:04]
Chad Millman
It's also about the value, too. Like, Panthers are plus 190 plus 180. I think the Jags are like minus 102.
- [37:10]
Simon Hunter
So you love the Panthers. I do. Do we want to spend any time on Tennessee Indy? I don't think we're going to put them in the contest. I just thought it was interesting, you know, Mason Rudolph is now officially the quarterback. We didn't know that on Tuesday. And I don't want to lay money on Anthony Richardson as a favorite, and I don't really have faith. I don't think Mason Rudolph is even worth the point that the line moved. He's not that good either. So I'm not feeling strongly about this game.
- [37:43]
Chad Millman
That's fair. It feels like a game that we're going to kick ourselves if. If the colts are up 14 head into the fourth and it's like, man, have we missed all these weeks of just fading this Tennessee team because they have just been atrocious.
- [37:57]
Simon Hunter
Well, look, that's also the question. So Tennessee this year is 2 and 12 against the spread. Yeah, like one of the worst teams against the spread in NFL history. The worst mark since through 14 games since the 2016 Browns. But Anthony Richardson is on pace to have such a bad year completing passes that is only comps in terms of lowest completion percentage for the past quarter century. Tim Tebow and Akili Smith.
- [38:31]
Chad Millman
Damn.
- [38:34]
Simon Hunter
I'm old enough to have been a professional in the year 1999, 2000. So I remember the Achilles Smith year. I remember Tim Tebow very specifically when I was running ESPN the Magazine. We put him on the COVID caused a lot of consternation because we made him look like he was praying. People thought it was a political statement.
- [39:01]
Chad Millman
I miss those days.
- [39:02]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, but you were like simpler times. You were like 10 years old. Not even.
- [39:08]
Chad Millman
How long ago do you think Tebow played? I was.
- [39:11]
Simon Hunter
No, but for a Keely Smith, I'm talking 25 years ago. This is like how bad Anthony Richardson has been. He has taken some severe steps back since the benching and we thought he was getting better. So just a whole lot of we have so many ugly home underdogs we can ruin our weekend with. Do we really want to ruin it with Anthony Richardson?
- [39:32]
Chad Millman
No, it's fair. I just, I'm honestly, I told you I was more shocked about the love from the professionals putting heavy money on this Tennessee side. Like, I'm not talking little money. Like I know guys who are putting decent money into this spot. And it's what I think you just talked about though maybe it's just the doubt of Anthony Richardson and the lift they think Mason Rudolph somehow is going to bring to this Tennessee team. Because I do think one of their covers this season was by Mason Rudolph off when he did step in so.
- [39:58]
Simon Hunter
Well, look, he's a better quarterback than Will Levis and he great for the Steelers last year, but he also had the Steelers defense and if you remember last year they were winning games because of turnovers by T.J. watt that he was forcing. Not because Mason Rudolph was any kind of hero.
- [40:13]
Chad Millman
No, he'll forever be only known just for getting hit in the head by Miles Garrett with his helmet.
- [40:18]
Simon Hunter
That's right. Also simpler times. Detroit -6 and a half at Chicago. So we've been talking about cold weather, we've been talking about quarterbacks in Chicago. In Chicago it's going to be low 30s. The warmest it'll be is around kickoff at noon on, on Sunday in Chicago. About 31. It's never going to be above freezing. This is not a Jared Goff spot. So I understand why the wise guys have come in on the Bears at 7 1/2 and 7. However, I don't think it's going to matter for Jared Goff. We're not going to need him to do much. For the record, he's 18 and 8 against the spread off a loss. He's 7 and 2 in the division off of a loss against the spread. This Bears rush defense is so bad. We saw it again last week against the Vikings. Even without David Montgomery, Jameer Gibbs may get 200 yards. I'm not even exaggerating. Like I watched so many of these Bears games. They cannot stop anybody on the run in the running game like, and the Bears are so ill prepared. Since Ebert Fluss was fired, they've given up 30 plus points in both of their games. In the first half of the past three games, they've gained a total of 163 yards. That's it. Like, I know people are betting the number. I hate the Bears here. Hate them. I'd much rather bet the lines.
- [41:49]
Chad Millman
I know it sucks though because I wanted, I wanted to find a way to take this Bears team, especially you know, the slander for Caleb Williams this week. It's just an all time high. I mean, I've seen that video of him on that bench, you know, rolling around in agony like a toddler about 20 times and it's like, God damn people. Let the kid grow. He's just a kid. Like he's just going through it. It's someone that, you know, not that he's a silver spruce up his ass his whole life, but he's been a winner his whole life. And you know, last year, yeah, it was hard to lose in the PAC 12, but it's like I think he's quickly realizing like this is a whole different world and it doesn't end like in his mind he's like, man, I should be getting ready for the offseason. No, you still got three more weeks of just playing against the toughest division in football. So it's brutal for Caleb. And you know, like we talk about the coaching has just been so disappointing for the Bears. Everything offensively Defensively since the fire, and they've just been terrible. And you're right, I'm probably overthinking it. I should just take the value here. I just can't believe the books are giving us six and a half. Another game that's like, this is in every single teaser. Even me, who knows it's a sucker bet, has put the Lions in every single teaser. It's too easy.
- [43:02]
Simon Hunter
That's so funny.
- [43:03]
Chad Millman
They're not going to lose. Like, there's. In what world do they lose this game? So of course, somehow Chicago Bears are going to find a way to upset this game. That's just how it usually is. But this year has been wonky. It's been great for the public. So, yeah, if you're someone like me, a sucker, betting this Detroit team in a teaser, hopefully that. That trend continues. So I'm with you, Chad. It's like, if the Bears are seven and a half, maybe me and you would have a serious conversation here. It's not. It's six and a half. I'll take the train, that number and I'll throw them in a teaser.
- [43:30]
Simon Hunter
I don't know if this gets contest play. I mean, we're going to have a favorite in the contest.
- [43:34]
Chad Millman
We got to find a favorite so it could. It could find its way in.
- [43:37]
Simon Hunter
It's. Well, the favorite is going to be Detroit or Buffalo.
- [43:41]
Chad Millman
Oh, right, right. I forgot our Buffalo. Love. It just cracks me up. Minus 14.
- [43:49]
Simon Hunter
Like, we'll get to it in a minute, but walk me away from it. You know what I mean?
- [43:53]
Chad Millman
I can't. I really can't. I mean, that's. That's the scary part. With, like, when he was getting up to 14 and a half this Buffalo game, I was like, okay, at least the professional money's coming on the same side of us. Now it is back down to 14, which is, like, not going to scare me off. But I do think it's interesting that guys are taking a position on this New England team where, like, again, my model thinks it's a good spot. Do the Bills overlook them and have a letdown game? I don't know. It feels like they're coming home and Josh Allen's playing for mvp and like, this is the type of game he just beats the shit out of this bad New England team. The only hesitation here is, do we get back door? Because the Bills have so many injuries to that defense and they're really playing, you know, with guys off the streets at this point. Like, I know they only have three or four Guys, they've sent the ir, but they just have guys banged up that might miss this game. That could be a big deal for them. So that's, that's the only hesitation for me.
- [44:43]
Simon Hunter
Well, hold on, let me set it up so Gifford can throw up his graphics. And we're going to go a little bit out of order here because we've transitioned into Buffalo. I want to get to Seattle and Minnesota. We'll do that after this one. But New England Buffalo was my exact decision. I feel like if, if it wasn't the jets, we would want to double up and make this big ball too. I agree with you. The Bill secondary is banged up and we know Drake May likes to make things interesting in the second half. And I think we're both Drake May fans like, we've seen a lot of moxie out of the guy. He makes good throws. He's not afraid to throw into coverage. He throws with accuracy. He runs well like he's got nothing on that team. He has zero help. And he has no help from the coaches either. And like this week, Gerard Mayo throwing Alex Van Pelt under the bus about his play calling. Look, maybe I'm overthinking that part of it, but I do wonder, is this all of a sudden a radically different game from a play calling point of view because of the sort of overt throwing under the bus by Gerard Mayo of Alex Van Pelt? That's to me, that's one part of it. I'd like your reaction to that if I am overthinking that part.
- [46:10]
Chad Millman
Yeah, again, I don't know. I don't think there's a move to be made with them at this point. That's a thing where it's like, you know, as much praises we're giving to Drake May, I'm going to go through it right here. He has thrown an interception every game since November 3rd.
- [46:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Yeah. So he's still a rookie quarterback playing against a terrible offensive line with no discernible players, no discernible talent on the edges at receiver, at running back. Like he's getting no help here.
- [46:46]
Chad Millman
No. And it's. He's getting no help, but they're kind of letting him just go through all of that right now. Right. They're not like pulling back the range. They're still letting him throw the ball downfield. And basically every time they play a good team, they just get absolutely rolled this, this New England team. So like that again, is another reason why I'm okay with you betting this number because we've Just seen this season that, you know, when they play against some bad teams, they can stay in it, they can keep the games close, but once they face a good complete team, they seem to get rolled. And we know that. We have major questions about the defense. But you have to think Sean McDermott going against a rookie QB, he's gonna be able to throw some crazy, exotic looks at him that's gonna kind of have his head on a swivel. So, again, Chad, I was trying to find a reason to get us off of this one just because, like, it's rare the guys call up and talk about your bets to me, but it was just funny how many guys caught up were just like, your buddy Chad, all right, giving out a minus 14 favorite as his favorite bet. I was like, I think he's just going through it.
- [47:41]
Simon Hunter
We've done this before. We did this with Alliance.
- [47:44]
Chad Millman
We have. But this is. Again, this is a different scenario. That was like, peak lines juggernaut. This is not peak Bills. Like, this.
- [47:53]
Simon Hunter
I was.
- [47:53]
Chad Millman
This is a Bill team that's a little banged up.
- [47:55]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, but how is this not peak performance for the Bills? Look at what they did. They.
- [48:01]
Chad Millman
You know, again, you keep saying, like. Then, like, dude, their defense is dog shit. It's all Josh Allen, Captain America.
- [48:10]
Simon Hunter
So that. That's the final factor for me, is that this is Josh Allen win the MVP game.
- [48:19]
Chad Millman
Me, too. That's the reason I'm, like, all in on this.
- [48:21]
Simon Hunter
It's just.
- [48:22]
Chad Millman
He's going for it.
- [48:23]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. It's a week where he can do what Lamar did last week. It's a week where the Ravens could have a hard time against the Steelers. It's separation week. It's week 16. Lock this shit down. Win him the MVP. Because now, all of a sudden, there is talk. Wait a second. Should Lamar Jackson win the mvp? Look at how good he is. Look at how efficient he is. Right? So this is the week we're betting Josh Allen to win the mvp. This is how we're betting Josh Allen. The odds in Josh Allen winning the mvp, there's no value anymore. We think there might be some value in Josh Allen to win the MVP against the New England Patriots.
- [49:02]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Because Josh again, has to keep putting up video game numbers because they really do have a joke schedule here. I think they faced the Patriots twice in the jets once this season. Here on the flip side, Lamar has a tough Pittsburgh game, then he has Houston. So it's like Lamar could flip this to his favorite. But I. I just don't think Josh Allen allows It like this guy is just playing at the highest level we've ever seen.
- [49:23]
Simon Hunter
Oh, my God. I can't believe we're going to put this in the contest, but I think we are. I really do. Minnesota at Seattle. This game's at three. It was at three and a half. I liked it a lot at three and a half. I bet it at three and a half. It's basically three everywhere. In fact, I think it'll go down to two and a half. The O line is banged up for Seattle. Geno is hobbled. We hope that he's going to play. They say he will, but if he's knocked out, we got Sam Howell. Gino against a spread at home is a loser bet. Geno against good defenses is a bad bet. I just liked it at three and a half because I thought Minnesota was inflated. But if we saw this at three and a half in the contest, how would you feel?
- [50:04]
Chad Millman
I could probably get there just because, like we've talked about this, this Minnesota team is great. They've been and how well they're playing. This is a letdown spot. They're on the road in Seattle. Then they're going to face Green Bay and then Detroit the next two weeks. So it's like the human element is how are they not looking ahead? They know what's ahead of them, right? Like they're in total control of the one seed, even though they want to say they're not going to overlook this Seattle team. You just gave a bunch of reasons why they might. Right? Like it's a banged up last leg team in Seattle. And to me, the reason I love it is like, it feels like we're buying really low on the Seattle team. Now after last week, most people that bet them are going to be really upset about that performance they put out against Green Bay. And I've talked about the stat of nauseum. I mean, it's made me a lot of money this season, but I basically have just been blindly betting these NFC north teams when they go outside the division because they've just been beaten up outside their division this season. So this is all about the number, Chad. Like you just said, this number might move too much to the point of like, are we all in Minnesota now? Is this two and a half in contest? Like, that's. That's the issue I have with this one where at three and a half totally support you. I think that was a good read by you on the Seattle team. But we're getting a banged up O line and a banged up Geno Smith against a team that loves to rush the passer like that's what the Vikings love to do. So again, there's other ugly dogs we like this week more. This is a very pros versus Joe's spot though. The pros are hitting the Seattle team hard. The public is thanking them. They are coming even heavier on the opposite side on this Vikings team. So yeah, really, really fun. Interesting game here.
- [51:37]
Simon Hunter
Maybe the wise guys when they call you, they should be saying Chad really nailed it with his analysis of Seattle. Instead of worrying about my mental state choosing the Bills because clearly I'm finding the right side. You know, Tampa Bay at Dallas. Dallas is four. We both liked it at four. It's trending towards three and a half. Money is coming in on our side. Look, it has not been success successful move for us this year to fade the better team when we think it has reached a peak in the market. Allah, Minnesota, Allah the bucks. To me, I just think this Dallas defense is not getting enough credit for how much better it's been since Micah Parsons came back. Alluded to this a little bit with the Panthers. Seven and a half sacks since he came back. They are three and one in the last four games. The only loss is that fluky Bengals game which if not for a mental breakdown by one of their players, they probably win that game. So I still like Dallas here.
- [52:54]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And they're. Dallas is another team that they seem to play to level their their competition. The sense that and they've played bad teams. They usually play up to and they've done pretty well. And when they've played legit contenders, really good teams, they've been rolled and blown out this season. Now we think Tampa is right in between there. Like they're a team that any given Sunday they could upset any team in the nfc. They've shown it this season. They beat the Eagles in Detroit this season, which is just crazy to think about. But we've seen it time and time again with this Tampa team. They just have let down games like it's no, you know, it's not something we're making up in our minds. Like we've seen it now where they've had these big wins, these big road wins and they come and they face teams and they just have huge letdowns and you know, they've been really hot since their bye week. They're 40 right. They've just been beating up on teams and you know, surprisingly their only close game in that stretch was Carolina. That that side we took that Carolina should have Won. They fumbled away though. Right. So that was another spot of this team being a little lucky. So they beat up on a bad Vegas team, which the line was a lot closer than people realize. Like, it sounds like an easy one now, but like people again were hesitant about this team. Same with last week against the Chargers. Right. A lot of professionals I knew were coming in on the other side. Like, they really liked the charge in that spot. They went 40 to 17. How do they not have a letdown here against an overlooked Dallas team? Right. Going on the road here. You know, we expect this to be a close game. Like you just said, Dallas has just been better than what I feel like people are giving them credit for in the public perception right now. Like that game we joked about, but that was a real thing with that Cincinnati game. Like, they should have either won that game or at least at minimum covered that. That number. Yeah, I believe it was five or five and a half. Same goes for here. And the books are smart moving this down because that was a bad number they hung when it was four and a half four. That felt like that was way too high. This should be closer to three still, like the value of three and a half. It's just another game that, like, if you wanted to put in the contest. I know we're, we're leaning into something we've regretted this whole season just betting these home dogs. But how does this line not have ton of value on it? Like, it's just way too inflated for a buck scene that we've seen that you can get pressure on Baker. Like, they don't have a great O line.
- [55:06]
Simon Hunter
And he'll make mistakes.
- [55:07]
Chad Millman
Yeah, and he'll make mistakes. Right. And like, then you talked. Last episode was a bland. You talked about that. Yeah, right. Like that's a big, big upgrade to that Dallas secondary. So it just a lot of the points and tracks to us taking Dallas here, to me, it was all about the number. If this was three, okay. I could finally talk ourselves out of it. The fact that you're still be able to get three and a half, four on this Cowboys team, it's just way too much value to pass on at that number.
- [55:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I feel like we're looking at Pitt, the J, Pittsburgh, the Jets, Dallas, Buffalo, and then we're going to have to make a call, you know, Is it Washington? Is it Carolina?
- [55:48]
Chad Millman
Well, I'm surprised you didn't bring up one game.
- [55:50]
Simon Hunter
What's that?
- [55:51]
Chad Millman
The Giants, Atlanta. So we were way ahead of the movement, which is like the best feel in the world getting a a plus 10 against a rookie. I know obviously it's not on the road but like dude, Pennix is left handed. They're flipping to a left handed quarterback middle of the week in this game. I know the Giants are trying to tank and give up the shoe. We already joked about how they were going to somehow steal this game. Now it's even more tempting. Like sure this kid Penn's come in and just light the world on fire and complete roll this Giants team but how do you not throw a little bit? I mean again we don't have to put this in context because the number has moved but like this one just jumped out to me of like wow, the books move this a point and a half when Kirk got taken out which was pretty interesting. The fact he moved it that that much.
- [56:36]
Simon Hunter
It's heading back in the other direction. It got down to eight and a half. I think it's back up to nine. I'm looking in the ad, I'm looking online right now. No, I'm seeing eight and a half. I'm see I see a couple nines out there actually I think bed 365. Yeah. Bet 365 is at nine right now.
- [56:56]
Chad Millman
So yeah, just the game that jumped out to me was like it's, it's crazy. This is this kid's first start this late in the season and basically a must win. Like this is like this kid's first start is basically a playoff game. Like it's just crazy. They're throwing him right to the fire like this. But like I said weeks ago when they should have made the movement, it didn't make sense why they're keep rolling Kirk out there. And I kept saying maybe we're not seeing what they're seeing in practice which is Pennix is simply not ready. I have no idea. I mean this organization is just such a train wreck and it's another one of those that's like it's being run from the owner, right? This is doesn't feel like this is being run by the GM or the head coach. This feels like an owner move. The owner came down after that embarrassing game against the Raiders and was like put the kid in like I'm done watching Kirk. So I just the vibes, everything about it with Atlanta. I just want to fade, fade, fade.
- [57:49]
Simon Hunter
Well the statement they put out was so weird what they said. They it was like this is a football decision and it wasn't Raheem Morris either. It was sort of like the what.
- [58:00]
Chad Millman
Is what would it be a soccer decision. I hate when fucking people say that. It's.
- [58:03]
Simon Hunter
It was like, it was so. It was so sort of weird and like, you know, real politic kind of thing. So your, your instincts might be right on that. All right, well, I put on the list. I don't know, I feel like we're gonna have. We'll have a good spirited debate about it. There is no debate, though, Simon. About this next sponsor. Can you name the best ticketing app in the United States?
- [58:31]
Chad Millman
Game Time.
- [58:33]
Simon Hunter
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- [59:59]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL Unscripted with Verkin Demers.
- [60:07]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst, and boy, oh boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [60:15]
Adnan Virk
I love you, by the way. On NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [60:24]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [60:34]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're going to soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We get all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you Wear on NHL.
- [60:44]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts Forky.
- [60:47]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virgin Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [60:59]
Simon Hunter
All right. Each week we give out a two team moneyline underdog parlay bet365 will boost the odds and highlighted on their site all weekend under both game pages. Remember, both games are eligible for bet365 early payout promo. Your Moneyline pick gets marked as a win if either team takes a 17 point lead, even if those teams go on to lose. If you want to bet this, bet it at bet365. This week's boosted parlay, New York jets and Dallas Cowboys. That's right, folks. That is plus 725. That's how crazy the folks at bet365 think we are. They're boosting this Moneyline parlay of the jets and the Cowboys to 725. Find the boost under either the jets or Cowboys game pages on bet365.
- [61:49]
Chad Millman
There will come a payday Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday. Someday There will come a payday Hallelujah, what a payday. There will come a payday someday.
- [62:05]
Simon Hunter
Our money line underdog, round robin Dallas Cowboys. No surprise. New York Jets. No surprise. Seattle, San Francisco, the Carolina Panthers.
- [62:15]
Chad Millman
So San Francisco is a favorite now we have to take them out. Can I get you there for the upset with Washington?
- [62:21]
Simon Hunter
Sure, I could do. I had Washington on my list.
- [62:24]
Chad Millman
I think they're a live dog here, so that'd be a fun one.
- [62:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, do it. It's in Dallas. New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers. That is our money line underdog. Ron Robin, give me your biggest bets right now.
- [62:41]
Chad Millman
Oh, man. Definitely jets three and a half. Definitely Washington three and a half. Obviously people know the Chiefs. I was hammering that when it was plus money. Now, like obviously I'm going to pull back, probably try to hit the middle. We'll see how that Chiefs games go. I mean, if it goes as we expected to, if it lands and I do middle, that Pittsburgh might have been one of my bigger bets as well. Like that's the type of type of situation. If I'm in the book, I know people are like, oh, professionals don't do this. I'm telling you, professionals do this all the time. We just take that ticket right to the window and just throw it on to the next game. It's Just you're playing with chips. It's not real money in my mind. So that's definitely a spot where it's like, if I hit that middle, I'm gonna be tempted to load up on this, this Pittsburgh number because it is so big. Yeah, it's. That's a tough one. So, yeah, for me, it's a dog. Heavy week, Chad. Like, usually I've been trying to force in a favorite, and I really don't have a favorite. I really love this week, I'll be honest.
- [63:34]
Simon Hunter
Other than Buffalo. Before we get out of here, let's bring in our director of research, Evan Abrams. We talk about him constantly on the show. He's going to have the final words. He's going to make us feel even better about betting all these home dogs that we keep losing on the last.
- [63:47]
Chad Millman
Word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.
- [63:52]
Evan Abrams
I'm gonna try here, but we're gonna start with the easy one. Right? So, Raven Steelers, We've talked a ton about the series stats and yeah, they all favor the dog, but I think Lamar vs Tomlin is worth some time here as well. So Lamar is one in four straight up and oh, and five against the spread versus Tomlin. But look inside the numbers. So Lamar's passer rating of 66.7 versus Pittsburgh, his lowest versus any opponent by almost 10 full points. All right, so he has five passing touchdowns and eight picks versus Pittsburgh. He doesn't have a negative touchdown to interception ratio against any other NFL team. In four of five starts, Lamar is under seven yards per attempt. And even looking at the Ravens this season, Ravens have five losses this year, four of them versus top seven pass rushes according to PFF and Pittsburgh's first. So it's just a bad matchup. Now this is where I was going to actually use, Chad, the stat that you used of mine on the bad teams versus good teams. But it's a great stat. Go back into the pod, listen to it. I'm going to talk a little bit about the jets pick that you guys like. So the jets offense has been better now. Scored 21 points or more in four straight games. But to me, this is about different numbers if you like the Jets. So to me, it's a defense that's been bad, obviously since Salah left. 31st in EPA per play, 30th in success rate. But I think Rogers in the cold, it's a good angle there. So I got two more for you. Todd Bowles, Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys. Bowles has coached 17 games as a Road favorite. When the home team scores 14 points or more, he's 50 against the spread. When the home team scores less more than 14 points, he's 3, 8 and 1 against the spread, losing six of those games outright. The Cowboys team total in that game is 22 and a half. So obviously they're expecting some points which seems like a little bit of a big favorite for him. And I'll leave you with this one. And I added it because you guys had so much back and forth on Bill's Patriots. So if Bills do get up early, say they lead seven nothing since the start of 2022. The Patriots are 3 and 27 straight up and 425 and 1 against the spread. When trailing by seven points or more at any point in the game. Worst marks in the NFL even this year they're 08 straight up one and seven against the spread, losing six of those eight games by double digits. So the bet to me is just start fast, get Drake in a hole and Josh will take care of the rest.
- [66:16]
Simon Hunter
Amen, brother. That's how we see it too. Evan. We love Buffalo. We are all Matt Mitchell's this weekend. If the bill's covered by 14, I'm not going to eat like wings with, you know, surgical gloves because I'm not a crazy person like Matt Mitchell. But maybe I'd have a spoonful of ice cream.
- [66:40]
Chad Millman
Wait, real quick, Chad. We gotta do Scooter. Let all hope is lost.
- [66:44]
Adnan Virk
All that's left is relief.
- [66:48]
Chad Millman
Let's play scooch roulette. I'll go with Pittsburgh plus six and a half. After hearing those Evan stats, how can I not?
- [66:56]
Simon Hunter
All right, well, guess what? I'm taking the New York Jets. What number can I get him at? 3 and a half, please.
- [67:01]
Chad Millman
We'll give it to you. You need it.
- [67:02]
Simon Hunter
Thank you. Thank you. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365. And now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 and place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER-1-800, bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night, 7:30 Eastern. To recap NFL Week 16, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [68:23]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virkin Demers, Jason Demers here.
- [68:30]
Jason Demers
And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [68:34]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together, chat with the sport that we love.
- [68:38]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in, too. But we're not just gonna be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le Table.
- [68:48]
Adnan Virk
Listen to any chance Unscripted with Virk and demers in the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.