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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
Foreign.
- [00:09]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John home studio. I am joined as always by my co host, my companion, Michael Padre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [00:29]
Simon Hunter
Hello, Chad. You have a nice holiday?
- [00:31]
Chad Millman
Beautiful holiday. We celebrated the traditional Jewish Christmas. We went to a movie, we got Chinese food. It was semi glorious because turns out I don't like Chinese food. And I'm eating the Chinese food. And I said to my wife, you know what, I just don't like it. Every year we get it and I don't like it. And she goes, every year you say it. Why do you have to say it? And my son goes, yeah, don't yuck our yum dad. The good news is no one gave me a cake which I wouldn't have eaten because I'm like Patrick Mahomes. I'm like Derrick Henry. I'm like Lamar Jackson. I am in my playoff diet because I'm always in my playoff diet because sugar and carbs are the enemy and we know this. And I feel like Netflix should have had more forethought to not offer a cake to professional athletes who are so specific about their diet. What do you think of that?
- [01:32]
Simon Hunter
I don't mind it. I. I don't know how I feel still about the Netflix experience. I don't know about you, but it kind of throws off trying to flip between NFL and NBA, which I wasn't too big of a fan of. Like it made it more of a hassle. And I noticed the commercials on Netflix, like, you know, the two minute drill, they, I think one team punted and they immediately went to another commercial after already doing a commercial at the 2 minute mark. And it's like, oh, God, this is the part of capitalism I hate. It's just getting way too aggressive. So I'm excited to see what the numbers are, Chad, because those are two bad games from, I would say, the general public's perspective. But I honestly enjoyed it. We saw like two of the best quarterbacks just doing their thing, dominating teams that, you know, they are playoff teams. So you can tell some teams are getting ready, ramping it up heading into the playoffs. Other teams are just hanging on, right. Just limping into the playoffs because it's been such a long season. So, yeah, pretty insane Christmas Day games.
- [02:27]
Chad Millman
It was really telling.
- [02:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [02:29]
Chad Millman
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, when we were talking about this game, we basically said, are we buying this team that is getting better and is proving it with Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy. They are all of a sudden they've been hanging on to get to 15 to 1. 15 and one the last three games. They are legit and it's hard to say that about a 151 team, but boy, now they get three weeks to get everybody healthy, to get the first round game, the second round game at home to have that advantage. It is setting up so perfectly for them. And the Ravens, like all of a sudden their defense looks better. They've been, it had been getting better. The back half of that defense had been getting better and better. They were helped because boy, we've been talking about CJ Stroud looking terrible all year. They made him look like a rookie in week one. He could not hit passes he was getting taking bad sacks. This Texans team and the Steelers too. What happened was all four teams did what we thought they were going to do and what they've been proving to do all year. They were exactly who their records and play showed they were. Exactly.
- [03:50]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. But it's also, I do think it's about what we talked about, the injuries, like the Ravens, their whole offense is healthy. The Houston know they've lost their two, two receivers. They have a bunch of injuries on the offensive line. And like you said a couple weeks ago, Joe Mixon has not looked right. Like he's just not had the same burst hitting the holes the same way. And that Pittsburgh game, I think it's a blessing, honestly this last stretch here because now I think they might avoid paying Russell Wilson legit money. Like there was a minute there they were about to give him like what, a three year, $100 million contract. And you know, they basically have hit a wall with him that he just as good as he is, right as he good as he looked, you can still see that he just makes these really bad mental errors that just catch up with him. So yeah, it's, it's a good time for people bend favorites. Man, like this is just the craziest time we're living in. You just blindly bet these favorites and they're just cashing. No problem.
- [04:46]
Chad Millman
Two more. Two more road favorites cashed yesterday. Steelers lost at home. The Texans lost at home. The Ravens won easily. The Chiefs won easily. Let's get into it. Today is our NFL Week 17 Best Bets episode. Simon and I will narrow down our five picks for the favorites $100,000 Pro Football Pick Em contest presented by bet365. We will also get into the foxhole Give out our Tommy John Big Balls Bet of the Week Discuss Simon's biggest bets are Boosted My Money Line Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Round Robin and so much more. Bets are rolling in. Lines are moving. Decisions need to be made. As our Volume podcast boss Colin Coward likes to say, there's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply before we get to Sharp calls. Another reminder, if you are participating in the Favorites Pick Them contest this week, your picks must be in by 1pm on Saturday, not Sunday. We're including the Saturday games. That means you must make your picks by 1pm on Saturday. Get those picks in by Saturday, not Sunday. For week 17. Good luck. All right, wise guys always have an opinion of what we're talking about. Even over Christmas. They don't rest. Just another football week for them. Lines are moving. Based on our conversations, we're going to hear what the Sharps have to say. Simon, let's do it. Sharp calls. Hello?
- [06:56]
Simon Hunter
Who's there? I'm talking rain, rain telephone ring.
- [07:01]
Chad Millman
Somebody saying baby, what you doing?
- [07:05]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, so obviously I hit the book after our show on Tuesday, but I didn't go any sports books yesterday. Go up to the runner's house yesterday either. Like it? I mean obviously there's too much going on. Let people have some time off, see their family. I'm not a total psychopath. So this is a little be. This will be like a shorter version of it. Just in the sense of not that everyone's scared off because all these Favorites have just been hitting. But like there's no confidence behind these guys bets right now. Which is very interesting because there's a couple lines this week I really like that I've stood out to me and it doesn't seem like everyone's jumping on the same boat with us. The ones you nailed, Chad, especially on Sunday. A lot of pros I've talked to really like the Rams, they like that side. A lot of pros I've talked to really like the Green Bay side. And we've seen that number at a couple of books. Flip to this point, which I can't lie to you, Chad's making me like Minnesota even more. Cause it's just.
- [07:53]
Chad Millman
Oh, no.
- [07:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. People just have. Have not believed in them all season. Like, this is. This is not that shocking. And it's not a game I'm rushing a bet. Cause I'm just hoping I get it, too. Like, give me a. Give me a plus two on the Vikings at home. Oh, my God, that would be a gift. A lot of guys agree with us on the Panthers, right? That number felt too high. Shockingly. I saw a couple of books touch eight and a half with it. Now a couple books are back down to seven and a half, which again, for a minute there, I was like, what am I missing here? Like, even. Even that dog to me felt like a dog. Me and you were going to be on no matter what this week. I'm glad it's come down because it was scaring me off. And then again, we debated. I thought way more people would be on New England. I don't think guys are willing to put up that much big money on this New England side. And it could just be because they are so. And dogs just aren't hitting like they had. They're used to. Right. Like, to me, this number I thought would be down to three, three and a half. Come today, it's gone the other way. Like, it's up to four and a half. A lot of books. So I think guys are just a little gun shy and they're. They're more heavy into taking these favorites especially. It's a good week for teasers. Like we already talked about. It's. It's a week where you can take these numbers down against bad teams that, sure, they might not cover this huge spread of eight, but they're going to cover two or three. Like, they're going to cover those numbers. So, yeah, for dogs that guys agree with us on, we're Atlanta and Carolina. And we talked about it. We both bet it. Detroit got down to minus 3. I know some smart money on the other side of it. But me and you talk about. I think they're misreading Dan Campbell. Like, he's talked about they're gonna go all out and not sit and rest this game. I think they're banking on them resting for this game. So, yeah, very, very interesting game of OR week. I should say of just professionals taking favorites, not so much the dog. So it's, it's finally going the other way. I think guys are finally been beaten down to this point. Chad, I've just been like man, it's just simpler to bet these favorites right now. They're just, you know what we talked about right? That the teams are more aggressive on going for it on fourth downs and the shorting fields has really helped these favorites. So it's a unique, a unique season that continues to favorite the favorites.
- [09:57]
Chad Millman
Well guess what? We're going to kick it off right away. Something we never do. We'll discuss. It's our big balls bet of the week presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great underwear and Tommy John makes the greatest right off the bat. The LA Chargers, they're minus four and a half right now at New England. This was a history making conversation on Tuesday and this is what a weird year it is. It's the first time ever you have not just warned me against an exact decision, you outright, you outright vetoed it. But then in our chat this morning I feel like you're as beaten down as, as I am on this and I think yesterday even sort of confirmed that. And then getting this validation from the professional betters. This is the first year we would ever even think about making a road favorite going cross country in this spot against a massive trend against the luck rankings first time we would make them a big balls. But I will say, you know you said the numbers move from four to four and a half. I, I couldn't resist anymore and I gave myself a little gift yesterday, Christmas morning gift and I bet it for a completely irrational splurge. We may be off. But I don't know, I, I, I just love the Chargers here.
- [11:30]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And honestly I was, it was the same thing with Cleveland where I was like it's going to be cold in the North. These teams coming from warm climates tend to struggle late in December in these exact scenarios. Especially a team like the Chargers who play indoors. It's once again like we already talked about, it's going to be in the 50s and rainy like the, it's going to be warm in a lot of these north north games. And it honestly came down to the coaching Chad. Like I just, I have more faith in this Chargers team be prepared for this game and less faith in a New England team that basically felt like that was their super bowl last week against the Bills and all the bounces went their way for the most part. And they still couldn't win that game. And, you know, the only really bad play I could think of was the backward pass by Drake May. But it's like, not that we expected, but it's like, he's a rookie. He's going to make stupid little mistakes like that. And the Chargers are a team that. That's all they do. They just wait for you to make a mistake. Once you make it, they capitalize, and then it's basically over. And we've seen it this season, like, you know, we've, I feel, like, done pretty well knowing when to be on the Charger, when to get off of them. And I thought this was a spot to get off this Chargers team. But, you know, the more I've talked to people, the more I've dove into it, it's like, all right, Chad's right. I should have trusted my initial gut reaction of this number is too low. Like I said, my model had this at 6. So to me, they're still showing value here. And, you know, if we. We come in here Sunday night and this is the game we do lose, and it's like we're kicking ourselves because we knew it was a trap. That would be brutal. But like we talked about, this year has just been different. This isn't that type of spot. Doesn't matter what the books need. Doesn't matter that it's a good home dog. This number just feels too low to me on this. On this side. So that's why I do support taking the Chargers.
- [13:13]
Chad Millman
So we went through this on Tuesday, too. You just repeated almost verbatim what I put in my notes to talk about today as to ultimately why I liked this game. I thought it had come down way too much because of how the Pats played against the Bills. That was a. That was the exact. We screwed that game up. I don't think we're screwing this game up. They came out. Drake May won with his legs. He's been accurate. We know that he's going to do that. But it's different when the spread is 14 and a half than when it's four. And so many of these games this year are coming down to the coaching decisions. Harbaugh always makes the right one. He's a football savant. The way he played the end of that first half against the Broncos, that's what swung the game, right? Calling the timeout, making them kick it, getting the penalty. Like, those things can only line up if he's thinking about strategically, how am I going to manage every second of this game. And he just does that better than Gerard Mayo. I'm not saying Mayo won't do it one day. He might. He might. He had a good call with that fake punt last week against the Bills, right? Like, why not be more aggressive, have a good time. But he's not the strategist that Jim Harbaugh is yet. And so that's what it came down to for me when I kept looking at, I'm like, this just, it doesn't make sense. And we've been proven right. It moved back up this morning.
- [14:50]
Simon Hunter
I don't know about, I don't know about Mayo, though, because I also honestly have heard so many whispers about the variable story line coming him, him coming back totally. And that we don't know what the vibes are in that locker room right now either. So it could all just be really negative for New England. And maybe that's, that's the part we're missing that this Chargers team just going to roll this team in this week.
- [15:09]
Chad Millman
Well, we hope so because it's our big balls bet of the week. Simon, a new year is almost here. Together we'll throw off the old rusty shackles of 2024 and we put on the new, shiny, glistening shackles of 2025. Now is the best time to forge a whole new you and overhaul your reputation with your friends and family. With a special sale for our listeners, you, listener can refresh your wardrobe and reputation with our friends at Tommy John. By now, all our listeners know that Tommy John has thousands of five star reviews. And they certainly know how much it's upgraded my life and my entire downstairs business. Downstairs business. And with a special deal, they can do the same for you and your loved ones. Simon, why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John in 2025?
- [16:03]
Simon Hunter
It's the gift that lasts.
- [16:04]
Chad Millman
That's right. Right now you can shop tommyjohn.com favorites for the holidays and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn.com favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorites Denver Broncos visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. Pro football's two superpowers renew their classic rivalry. I can't quit this one. It was like another one that was in consideration for big balls. It's another one, sort of that I gifted myself on Christmas day. When it moved to three and a half, I took it at three and a half. It's since moved back down to three. What are your thoughts here?
- [16:44]
Simon Hunter
I feel supportive of it just because of the Cincinnati defense We talked about on Tuesday a little bit of just, I don't think they're good enough to be giving up a hook to a team like Denver that can move the ball offensively. And even when Bo Nix makes stupid turnovers and mistakes, it doesn't slow him down. He just comes back out and keeps slinging and trump Payne kind of has that trust in him that he'll keep letting him push the ball downfield. And defensively I feel like that's an edge for this Denver team. They actually have a good defense that can rush the passer. And you know, obviously Joe Burrow having an incredible season, but how many times we've seen him kind of shoot himself in the foot in some point of the game, it's not, not his fault. It's just so much put on his shoulder. And to me that's why this game feels like I'll be close. And I know Denver doesn't need this one, right? It's. They need to win one of the next two. Obviously they want to win this one, but you know that that number to me at three and a half is just so tempting. I can't really pass on it. So it's another game where it's like hard to like dogs this week, but at this number against the Cincinnati defense, it feels like a good opportunity. And yeah, matchup wise, like really going through all the numbers are breaking it down how this defensive line of Denver can match up against the offensive line of the Bengals. It's really going to work out for them. Just because Joe Burrow honestly is one of the quarterbacks that does hold on to the ball like he, he does take sacks, the other guys don't because he likes to push it downfield. It's who Joe is. I think we're kind of starting to figure that where you know, for a while there we'd always blame his offensive line. As the years have gone along here it's like, well a lot of these are self inflicted wounds by Joe. Like he's just not taking the first open reader. He wants to kind of test the limits and push it downfield. So it's all about the number here. Like you just said, it's shifting down to three to a lot of books. So at three and a half especially contest wise I would play it but if it was two and a half would even think about playing it. It's just, it's all about getting that hook to me because I do think the Bengals will win it. But by more than a field goal. Feels like a Stretch, I think I.
- [18:38]
Chad Millman
Agree with everything you're saying. You know, we talked about this on Tuesday. I liked it because we've got a pass rush that can dominate the Bengals, especially if Mims and Brown are out. They, they were limited participants on Tuesday. Haven't seen any updates. You know, today is sort of the key day, but we saw what Cleveland did against this Bengals team. They were all over the Bengals backfield. They made Joe Burrow look better because he had no choice but to look good when he's being rushed constantly. They get. They had four sacks. They were in his grill. This Brown, this, this Broncos team is better in coverage than the Browns. They've got just as good a pass rush and they've got an offense. Like, the only reason the Bengals cover that game is because they were playing Dorian Thompson Robinson. So I stole this from Raybon on the Action Network podcast. Bo nicks against bad defenses, like below 50% in the league across a variety of metrics. Seven and oh, straight up. And against the spread, 29 points per game, 13 touchdowns, two picks. Damn, that makes you. I knew you like that. That makes you feel better about it, right? You know, so that's good numbers. Yeah. And like, also, here's the biggest news to me. We've seen this Broncos defense struggle the past few weeks against the Browns and then the Chargers when Riley Moss was out of the game. Their cornerback, he was a full participant in Tuesday. I would expect he's playing this weekend. So it's more the reason. All the more reason to like it. The one thing I would say about the two and a half, and maybe Evan can help illuminate this over the next few minutes and we'll come to him in his segment. I think the two, two and a half, you're winning just as often as the three, three and a half this season. So it's something to. Something to think about. Big pros, Joe's game. Pros have been all over the Broncos in this game. I put in Arizona at the Rams. Even though it's at six and a half, we're not going to play this one. I think the numbers moved so much, but I want to keep it in because we discussed it so much on Sunday and so much on Tuesday, I didn't want people to think we forgot about it. And then you mentioned it in, in sharp calls, like it got up to seven yesterday before it came back down to six and a half. Do you feel strongly about this game at six and a half? That's what it'll be in the contest.
- [21:13]
Simon Hunter
I do like the Rams, but I do have other favorites I like more just because what we talked about, I feel like the numbers move so much. You know, Connors might give it a go. Like that's a big deal for theirs. I mean, I know that was a two offensive lineman they put on the irr they lost after last week. I'd have to go back and look, but I think so, you know, if they're losing two offensive linemen and their number one running back, how do we not love the Rams? Like, I know that they don't have the greatest defense, but given that level where it's all on Kyler, that tends to be the worst spot you can be in if you're Arizona. Just Kyler seems like he has not delivered up to the moment this season. And the fact that this Cardinals team, we could say the best game of Kyler's career or I guess just the season was against this Rams team earlier this year when Rams were all banged up. You know, they know that and they're, they've been waiting for this opportunity and you know, icing on the cake. It's like they win this, they win the division, so they get a mini bye week next week. That's a big deal. So, yeah, I, I love the Rams, but my worry chat is just the numbers move too much. So I agree with you on that.
- [22:19]
Chad Millman
All right, so. Well, it's kind of a back burner game. I just didn't want to leave it out the next game. Las Vegas Raiders at the New Orleans Saints. I'm falling more and more in love with this as the Saints. I don't have to tell you, but doesn't this feel like the game where you 100% go in on the Saints? They just got blown out. The Raiders won in a game that they clearly should have lost. Like, why isn't this game coming up more? This is a game in years past we would not be hesitating. Zero hesitation.
- [23:01]
Simon Hunter
I agree with you about betting the number, but it's a game I have zero confidence in because I have no read on how Spencer Rattler is going to do and how he's gonna be able to move the ball. And the flip side, I do kind of have a feeling how Vegas can move the ball. We've talked about they still have some of their studs offensively that they can move the ball and get it to. And I know the Saints were unlucky last week. Like, there were times where Spencer took off with the ball and you're like, that's the key to this offense. If you just run the ball, brother, like you can open up the offense in so many ways. But eventually he went away from it and again they just. They're the only team this season, I believe that got shut out this year. Like they're the first team to not score a single point in a game this year. So I agree with you would love to be on the Saints chat. I would love to feel confident about it, but I just have a hard time putting my money on this team right now. I just have zero faith in the.
- [23:51]
Chad Millman
Saints offense this season. Just going back to the Broncos and Bengals for a second teams that. Well, actually Evan, I'll ask you to explain this. I'm not sure quite sure I understand the minus one and a half, minus two, minus two and a half. He's got the records against the spread at each number. So I guess we'll talk. Let's talk about a little bit in the segment when you come on and we'll. We'll unpack it a little bit. I mean that's fair. Going back to the Raiders and Saints for a second, it just feels like you bet the number like we're. You buy low, you sell high. The Raiders benefited from multiple Jags turnovers. The Saints had the JV against the packers in prime time against a team I think is better than Minnesota. Like the offense is not any better this week, but should they be dogs and then teams off a blowout like the Saints 65 against spread the past 20 years and it happens more often than you think. Like we're talking close to 100 games. So I don't know, it just feels like if we had more confidence and we hadn't been getting just hammered on quirky favorites this year, we wouldn't be hesitating. We'd be pulling the trigger and we'd be proud of it.
- [25:12]
Simon Hunter
I probably wouldn't just because there's just other better dogs this week. It's like I'm not. I don't. There's a couple. There's a couple of games right now and then where I have a game that we've bet on that I have to have. Watch closely. I'm just like, God damn you, Chad. That's what you feel like you're trying to do to me right now. It's like I don't want to be watching this game. I don't want to have big money on this game. So yeah, it's. You're right. It's probably the right spot. It's another Game, right. I'd rather just throw in a teaser. Give me seven and a half. That's a nice big number for the Saints team and that'll be my bet for this. I just have zero interest to bet this one straight.
- [25:45]
Chad Millman
For the record, I gave myself a lot of pre Hanukkah Christmas Day gifts in the form of bets like the Ravens, Texans under 50 one and a half live, the Chargers minus four, the Broncos plus three and a half. As confident as I am talking about the Saints, I did not give myself a Christmas gift of the Saints at plus one yet. I'm just saying I did get Carolina at plus eight and a half against Tampa Bay and it's now at eight. This was my exact decision. Panthers started the year one and seven against a spread. It burned all of us. They're three and four since then. I think we've been on them all three times that they've won. We're going back to the well again. Like, I don't think there's a question here. The market just has not adjusted enough. We talked about sort of the spread differentials from the last time these two played. It's only a point and a half difference going back to Tampa, but come on, let's go Panthers.
- [26:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's another game that, you know, probably should just take the over because it's going to be a game that the Bucks are going to be able to move the ball anytime they want with Bucky Irving with what they have on the outside with, you know, Baker tends to bounce back in these spots. Still better move the ball. But just even rewatching that game against the Cowboys as well as Cooper Rush played that just had guys open all over the field. Like it just seems like this Tampa secondary cannot keep up with opposing offenses right now. And like we've talked about it, this the comfort level of Carolina with Bryce Young right now is an all time high. Like they are just so in sync between the play calling. Even Adam Phelan, like, you know this guy basically was sent to Carolina to die two years ago and he's just such a stud. Especially his trust level with Bryce Young, like when he needs to on third down, a really tight window. That's who he's looking for. So I'm with you. Like I love this Panthers team. My only fear is just that I'm so in love with it. Like I this is another game where I took their money line again. Like I just love this matchup for this team and the fact that it's still seven and a half and above. It's insane to me. Like, way, like you just said, way too much respect to a Bucs team that we agree is good that they're going to be able to score and move the ball, but we know that the opening of this back door is going to be there. Even, even if we're down 21 or 17 the first half, this bet will still not be dead. Like, we're still going to be alive. So I love that this number is still so big just because of what we talked about. It's just obviously clear disrespect to this Tampa Bay team.
- [28:23]
Chad Millman
I mean, Carolina Bryce Young 2.0. He's accurate, he's ballsy, he takes hits in the pocket, but he also gets out of the pocket, uses his legs. He's been a revelation. And like, to his credit, you know, there's only two weeks left in the season, but Dave Canales finally did say he'll be our quarterback for the rest of the season. He had been avoiding saying that, purposely. Avoid avoiding saying that purposely. But yeah, we love, we're booking in the season.
- [28:55]
Simon Hunter
We love the Panthers. If they win these last two, we hit our over, which would be an insane proposition if they can actually do it.
- [29:02]
Chad Millman
So look, we, we're bookending the season. We love the Panthers at the beginning, we're loving the Panthers at the end. They're finally the team we thought they would be. Simon, kudos to us really, for having the wherewithal to stick with the team. Not backing down, not being afraid, going back in, even at the threat of revolt from our listeners, telling them what's good for them. That's what we do. Tennessee plus one at Jacksonville.
- [29:30]
Simon Hunter
It's another Chad game.
- [29:31]
Chad Millman
The Titans are now 2 and 13 against a spread tied for the worst records to start the season in the super bowl era, per our friend Evan. At this point the only question is, do you bet the regression or do you pass? Like I was convinced on Tuesday, we bet the regression a little bit less. So today I don't feel as good about it.
- [29:52]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's just another game where you're exactly right. A normal year, just like the Saints, this would be an easy bet, easy spot. They made a QB change. In no world was l Love is going to put up 30 points. Last week, like that really was about how Mason Rudolph is that much better as a quarterback for this team. So that to me is the biggest difference. The professionals we talked Sunday night, they came in heavy on this one, right? It was two and a half two. They hit it right Away now. It's just been sitting now just sitting at one. And most pros I talk to, they've hit this number. I feel like in the Action app, it kind of backs that up. So, yeah, it's. It's the professional side. Like, you're right. That's who the pros are going to be on Tennessee, it's. Again, there's other dogs I like better. Like, do we really like this better than Denver? Do we like this better than Atlanta? Do we like it better than Carolina? No, I don't. Right. So that's. That's the spot we're in here where it's like me, me and Chad usually love betting these. Nobody. Nobody believes this ugly dogs, but we're just hesitant because they just like, Tennessee's a great example. They have not been hitting like they should. And this is another spot where the number is good. We probably should take it, but I just have no urge to put my money on this type of team.
- [31:03]
Chad Millman
What about teasing it? Like, you get through three, you get to seven. Like, do you tease it with the Saints?
- [31:11]
Simon Hunter
If it was one and a half, I would. Right now I'm looking at just one, so I wouldn't tease it. Just getting the seven because obviously people know pushes. Pushes are no good in teasers.
- [31:19]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Yeah, I agree. Maybe on Sunday we play it for a little bit as just a regular bet. It's not. I don't think it's making the contest. We still op, people. A foxhole exec decision was the Panthers big balls as the Chargers. Simon says was Atlanta. We owe a foxhole. I'm a little worried we won't find one because I know we're on the same side as the wise guys. And a lot of these games coming up, Dallas at Philadelphia, eight and a half. It's come down. But this one makes. Still makes no sense to me. You know, we spoke about it on Tuesday and Sunday night. It was seven and a half. We were taking the Cowboys. It got up to eight that night, so we were taking seven and a half and eight. Sort of hedging against Jalen Hurts being out. Then the line blew up. It got up to 10 and a half on Tuesday morning and there was still no news about Jalen Hurts. And now it's slowly been coming back down. Ten, nine and a half. Nine, eight and a half. Still no news about Jalen Hurts. Cannot find any news. You haven't heard anything. Fascinating subplot. Simon.
- [32:41]
Simon Hunter
I. I did message someone that works with Eagles and they're in the know today. And they basically just said that they'll know more info after today's practice, which obviously as we're recording right now, that's not happened. The scary thing is right now Hertz has a concussion and Kenny Pickett has ribs and they basically signed Ian Book off their practice squad. So right now it's Tanner McKee and Ian Books as their two quarterbacks. So if that's a scenario, yeah, obviously me and Chad will just sit in our Cowboy tickets and let that ride if that's what's coming this Sunday. But yeah, if it's, if we get any inkling of hurts, I know the public will will know because they'll see the line move just like we will. That's that's going to be the first way we know it hurts again if it does go right back up to 10. But right now, like you just said, it's coming down because of so much unknown. So I like the Eagles in the spot. This feels like a good spot for their defense to balance back at home. They match up really well against this Cowboys team believe the first time they played Eagles won 30 to eight or 32 to eight, something like that. And you know it's just a defense that they are really good in press coverage and man to man. And we've seen with CD if you can have really athletic young corners like the Eagles do, it's different than you can neutralize his speed. Right. And we saw last week like a team like the Bucs, they have no one like that and that's why you can force feed a guy like him. And on top of that, you know more I read about like CDs is basically playing with a banged up shoulder and yeah he re aggravated the last week getting tackled on it finished the game. But you could see that he didn't.
- [34:17]
Chad Millman
Play but he played like two plays in the second half. He wasn't a factor.
- [34:21]
Simon Hunter
You could just see that he was basically not that he re injured. I shouldn't say that because we don't know but you could see that discomfort level would have gone up such to a level that he didn't even want to be out there taking hits and they kind of held him out. So yeah we expect a, we expected a letdown from the Cowboys after that huge emotional win against that Bucks team. And you expected a bounce back from an Eagles team getting embarrassed and their defense just getting chewed out all week by Fangio. But with the unknown of like we just talked with the unknown of Herz, I can't confidently, confidently give this out to people and listeners of the show. So, yeah, it's. It's a game that I'm, I want to be on the Eagles, but I am hesitant to give it out right now just because of all the information we don't have on Herz.
- [34:59]
Chad Millman
Yeah, we definitely worry about the Eagles bounce back on defense. We worry about Jaylen all of a sudden being a go on Sunday. We worry about Cooper Rush his kryptonite.
- [35:10]
Simon Hunter
So it live, it just move -7 and a half Eagles. So it keeps dropping, which again, that's not great if you want to back the Eagles. But if you want to grab Cowboys now, like we've. We talked about, we've already done it. I mean, I'd grab eight and a half just in case.
- [35:27]
Chad Millman
Yeah. But if you have the eight and you're getting nervous that Jalen Hurts is going to play and you want to buy out of the eight and you don't want to wait, you could also take the seven and a half. Right. Like, then you're. You're getting to buy out of your bet. You know, maybe it'll go down. Maybe you get the seven, who knows? But it's an interesting, interesting scenario for everybody. Very interesting. I also worry that the Cowboys injuries in a lot of spots are going to impact them more against a better team and that they just played their best game against the Bucks. They had just found out they weren't in the playoffs. They clearly like Mike McCarthy. They were going to go play hard in primetime. They were hitting like it was a conference title game. That adds up, especially the following week when you've sort of come down emotionally a little bit.
- [36:21]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we talked to though that Cowboys game was not a perfect match for the Cowboys. It really was like everything they do well offensively Buck struggled with. And then defensively we talk about like their second team. The secondary has really good hands on the Cowboys. And like that affected Baker. Like those windows just weren't there for him. So. Yeah, I just, I'm just shocked as we're doing this live, that number moved down even more. Like the Eagles haven't practiced yet. So this is clearly professionals trying to get ahead of it. Getting on that Cowboys side.
- [36:50]
Chad Millman
We're going to have to run through this again and choose a foxhole. It might have to be New Orleans. That's kind of what's in my head right now because. Because I'm looking at the rest of the games. Green Bay at Minnesota is a huge.
- [37:01]
Simon Hunter
Move I thought we were going to do. I honestly think we should just do Detroit for foxhole.
- [37:06]
Chad Millman
I would do Detroit. I love it. I just don't know. Are we in the fox hole?
- [37:09]
Simon Hunter
Don't make me bet the Saints. Chad, please, for the love of God.
- [37:12]
Chad Millman
Are we in the foxhole though? We'll get to it. We'll get to it. Green Bay at Minnesota. I love Green Bay. You love Minnesota. The wise guys are with me. Wise guy. I move numbers. The line is moved.
- [37:24]
Simon Hunter
They're also with you on the Steelers. That didn't work out too well for them.
- [37:27]
Chad Millman
I didn't bet the Steelers.
- [37:29]
Simon Hunter
You didn't bet the Chiefs though?
- [37:31]
Chad Millman
I didn't bet the Chiefs. I didn't bet the Steelers. I didn't do the Steelers.
- [37:33]
Simon Hunter
Because you're on the Steelers. You don't see how that works?
- [37:36]
Chad Millman
No, because I was on the total. I lost either way, but I was on the total.
- [37:41]
Simon Hunter
Ah, you were on the Steelers.
- [37:44]
Chad Millman
I was a wishy washy non opinion.
- [37:45]
Simon Hunter
I told you it was my biggest bet and you didn't even touch it. You were just like, I want nothing to do with it.
- [37:49]
Chad Millman
So I want nothing to do with it.
- [37:50]
Simon Hunter
I classified you beat on the Steelers.
- [37:52]
Chad Millman
I was wrong. Don't take it personally. I was wrong. You were right. You made a lot of money on the game. I, I lost because I was on the total.
- [38:00]
Simon Hunter
But that's a game the pros were heavy, especially when the Chris Johnson news came out. They were heavy on the Steelers and I just, I don't know, I get where people come from this packers team, but especially now. I told you now the numbers move even more. Like I'm getting a plus number on the Vikings now.
- [38:15]
Chad Millman
Yeah, well, I was going to say like the numbers move from packers plus one and a half to now minus one and it's been moving aggressively over the last 48 hours. I did bet the packers money line on Christmas Day. They were still slight dogs at the time. I guess my take, if we're talking about like comps, right. Why, why do I like the packers more than the Vikings? Why would I feel more comfortable betting the packers than I would say the Steelers? I just think the packers are a really physical team and we know their identity is run the ball with Josh Jacobs, limit turnovers, control the clock. Jordan Love makes the right throws at the right time in the right situation. And I feel like Minnesota, you're saying it consist. I feel like Minnesota consistently is getting lucky and lives and dies by Sam Darnold being able to evade in the pocket and then throw over the top of coverage that is breaking down or Kevin O'Connell puts him in a great spot and he can throw a rope across the field from the opposite hash on like 2nd and 12 after another holding penalty or ineligible player downfield and sort of keep the chains moving. But that isn't sustainable to me. And then you look at their wins during their win streak. Close games that just as easily could have been losses against the Bears, the Cardinals, Seattle, and then they were tied with Atlanta in the fourth quarter before Atlanta's turnovers completely put them out of the game. To me, Green Bay has dominated in their past five games. No close games to inferior competition and a one field goal loss.
- [40:14]
Simon Hunter
They beat the Bears by one point.
- [40:16]
Chad Millman
That's not in the past five games.
- [40:18]
Simon Hunter
Okay, okay, you got me there. You got me there.
- [40:21]
Chad Millman
Their one loss is a field goal to Detroit. So yeah, I don't know, I just feel better about, you know, you can see teams getting better. I don't think Minnesota is necessarily getting better. I think they've played to the best of their ability and had things go well.
- [40:34]
Simon Hunter
Their, their way can't refute any of that we've talked about. I think they've been really lucky. But I also think that they have the coach of the year and you know, a quarterback that is living up to the moment. Like I told we talked about like as much as we said they've been lucky, he's making big time throws and really, really intense tight situations down here. Like you said, they've been playing all season above their talent level. They have a nameless defense, they have Sam Darnold as their quarterback and they are whatever, 13 and 2 at this point. So my whole issue is that they are a team that when it's tight, they one of the best teams in all football. And on the flip side with Green Bay, again, nothing against Jordan Love, but when he's played against good teams, he's not been great in those tight moments. And they have not played that many great teams this year. Right. Like if you like you just went through their whole schedule other than Detroit, they've had a cakewalk these last couple weeks. Like this to me is a true test for their defense, which I don't think is that good even coming to the year. I said I don't care. They made a coaching change to their defense. I don't think they had have the right pieces to it. So we're not doing the Saints. It's please stop trying to do the Saints. Yeah, I just look at this as it's just a Green Bay team that the public is Going to love. Everyone's all into. And I'm just. I'm kind of dug in here on the disrespect for this Vikings team and like the number that now the numbers flipped. It's making me even more confident. It's like even. Even the public now it feels like is on with the professionals on the screen Bay side. Just a ton of love for this team that, you know, I just don't think they. They have been tested, right? They were testing that Detroit game, but even that Detroit game, they should have won that, right? Don't we then we both agree on that, that they were felt like the better team against Detroit, but they just were not clutch at the end of the game. Like they gave away the game. It kind of gave the opportunity to Detroit to win that. So that, that to me, Chad, is just my fear here is that Minnesota, when it's close to the end, they're going to steal this one.
- [42:30]
Chad Millman
All right. You know, I think that these will be two good games for Scooch Roulette. I can't wait to be on the opposite sides of it. We haven't had a. We haven't had a. Oh, that's a good one. Do that.
- [42:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's fun.
- [42:46]
Chad Millman
Yeah. We haven't had a game where we are head to head all season.
- [42:53]
Simon Hunter
I think Christmas you were on the Steelers guy.
- [42:59]
Chad Millman
Come on.
- [43:00]
Simon Hunter
I was heartbroken. I opened up my action app, looked Christmas morning, see if Chad was gonna be back at me. Nope, nope. Wasn't there. No support.
- [43:07]
Chad Millman
I couldn't get there. But because I'm too afraid of my time.
- [43:10]
Simon Hunter
I was there for you on the Bills last week. You couldn't be there for me on the Chiefs this week.
- [43:14]
Chad Millman
I've been there with you on so many things. We got there with. How many times have we bet the jets this year?
- [43:20]
Simon Hunter
We love it.
- [43:21]
Chad Millman
We love it so many times. But we haven't been head to head on a game. Normally what's been happening is like one of us will have an opinion and the other one will have a strong opinion and we will put that game as one of ours. This year we are head to head on Minnesota and Green Bay. I like it. Like it a lot. Atlanta at Washington. This was your Simon says three factors. Can you remind people what your three factors were?
- [43:52]
Simon Hunter
I cannot.
- [43:54]
Chad Millman
You like what you saw from Pennix?
- [43:57]
Simon Hunter
Makes sense.
- [43:58]
Chad Millman
We like fading the commanders off their miracle win.
- [44:01]
Simon Hunter
Oh, yeah.
- [44:02]
Chad Millman
We don't think Washington's defense is very good.
- [44:05]
Simon Hunter
I agree with all that. So, yeah. Simon on Tuesday was spot on but I also just think like the more I broke down the film on Pennix that I had underrated him a little bit. Right. I think I was a little too negative on him on the Sunday show. And you were ahead of it, right. I think you said take it. Whatever it was was a five or five and a half Atlanta when it opened. Yeah, yeah. Way too much respect for this Washington team. And my, his only, my only real hesitation was well it is a rookie and a second star going on the road playing in a primetime game like that is a tough spot to be in. But as you quickly mentioned to me, this is not your regular rookie. This is a guy who's been played a lot of years in college, played in some really big games in college football and has lived up to those moments in college. So that does translate to the NFL. Like we've seen these quarterbacks who have played in big time games. I mean the one that really stood out to me was Joe Brewer. Right. Like he had all the hype in the world coming to LSU and you saw immediately this guy had the confidence because he had played in such big time games. So this one, another one that's just all about the number, right? And another game where I swore this would be three today just because I did think the professional was coming heavy on this one. It's not there. Like there's still some four and a half popping out there that you can still get. So yeah, not, not a slam dunk I thought it was going to be. But yeah, love this matchup. Love this number for this team and just feels like a game that they could steal and win outright. Like it's a, a Washington team that's just going to be inflated like we talked about after last week. And I still think the number is just way too high. Like you're still getting a great value on this number with this team. And the Achilles heel for that Falcons team was they had no pass. They've kind of had it turn around the later half of the season, right. They've gotten better again after the quarterback. Whether that's scheme or just kind of figuring out the rhythm between the defenders because it was a new D line, right. And they kind of had to figure out a play, play with each other. So yeah, this Atlanta team, it might be a spark they needed. Right. That QB change, that could be something they needed now the books haven't caught up to it because they don't adjust to this new, this new quarterback situation. So yeah, I like it. I feel like we're Getting ahead of it. I think we're beating the book here on this one.
- [46:06]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I like it, too. And if we can still get to four and a half in the contest.
- [46:09]
Simon Hunter
By all means, that'd be amazing.
- [46:11]
Chad Millman
I love it. The thing is, we're not going to get three and a half. We haven't looked at the contest lines yet. It hasn't gone below four. So we're going to get the four and a half. Last game of the week, Detroit visiting San Francisco. We're going into the foxhole. This is going to be it.
- [46:25]
Simon Hunter
You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team.
- [46:29]
C
I commit to a city.
- [46:30]
Simon Hunter
I'm a foxhole guy.
- [46:31]
Chad Millman
Detroit got down to three yesterday. I bet it at three. I'm assuming you bettered at three.
- [46:37]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [46:37]
Chad Millman
My last Christmas Day gift, it was the last thing in my stocking. It's gone back up to three and a half. It's probably what the contest line is going to be, I guess. I don't care that much.
- [46:48]
Simon Hunter
I'm so freaking proud of you, man. That's a way to show up. You talk about pressure. We live in pressure. That's where we freaking thrive. You did it again. You always find a way to win.
- [46:57]
Chad Millman
Detroit wants to go in and dominate, and I think San Francisco is trying to figure out what they're going to do next year.
- [47:03]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I told you. I was all really to me about what Dan Campbell was going to say, and he came out and was honest and said, yeah, we're going to rest, guys. I would probably agree with the professionals who are betting this 49ers team and be like, okay, now I get why they're hammering this 49ers side. It went the other way. Campbell is basically saying, like, no, we're not that type of team. I'm having everyone play. We plan on going up there and dominating and winning in San Francisco. So we're road warriors.
- [47:29]
Chad Millman
All right. We're in rare air right now.
- [47:30]
Simon Hunter
All right. We were all supposed to be here together, man. We're destined for this. Just stay the course. This 49ers team still feels like they're getting respect from the books from last year and every week, even last week. Right. They were. I think they opened as a two and a half point dog and they closed as a one and a half point favorite, so.
- [47:48]
Chad Millman
Makes no sense.
- [47:49]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, but it's been like that all year. That the. That people.
- [47:53]
Chad Millman
Mainly them and the Jets. Them and the jets the whole freaking season.
- [47:56]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. It's true, though. They just can't help themselves. And that was very glaring. Like you just said, the fact that this got down to three, like, that's some really, really smart money, moving that to three like that. Again, we talk all the time. It's not that they have it every book. They might hit one or two books, and every book follows off of that movement. That's how respected that money was that came in. But as soon as that Dan Campbell interview happened, it went right back up. So I think the books don't know what to do with it. They're. They're. They're kind of in between. And, you know, obviously, three was a gift. I'm glad we both got it. But as long as this is below 6, I think we're getting a great number. Like, that's why, again, I don't know what I'm missing here. I have this as such a higher game because the only fear with Detroit right now is going up against good offenses that can move the ball on them. Right? That's the fear, is they could. They can be backdoored by teams now because of the struggling defense they have. But this ain't that. Like, this is not that type of matchup. And, you know, we've seen golf. We always joked about him outdoors. That hasn't mattered yet this. This season either. Like, they've been so dominant because of that run game that sets up everything through the pass game that. Yeah, like Gibbs. This matchup for him is great. They have. I don't say Fred Warner slow, but he's got. He's been playing with major injuries. And we've seen their linebackers have struggled getting on the outside. That's what they want to do with Gibbs. Like, that's just such. That's literally what they want to do with him setting up, especially sign up the pass. So, yeah, this. This is another game just like last week. I'm hoping we don't scare it off of. Because, you know, we talked about last week against the Bears. It was basically 95% of the tickets, 95% of the money was on this, this team and the lines. And it went from seven to six and a half. So we were like, what's going on here? I mean, they won by what, double digits? So I feel like it's the same thing here. They're trying to scare us off at Chad. We're in the foxhole. We will not be scared.
- [49:51]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Right now, 80%, 87% of the tickets and 96% of money on the Lions Yeah, I'm, I, I will not be afraid. This is the year we've been seeing it. There's a couple games that we like that are road favorites. We're going to have to decide are they both going to make it in. We're talking about the Chargers and the Niners. You know, right now I think they do. If we're looking at the list, if we're taking one of them out, it's going to be probably be for the Saints. So it's a very good chance that we end up with two road favorites in the contest. It's kind of year it's been.
- [50:26]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [50:26]
Chad Millman
How to make adjustments, even if it's in week 17. Simon, can you name the best ticketing app in the United States?
- [50:33]
Simon Hunter
Game Time.
- [50:35]
Chad Millman
That's right. It's our beloved sponsor, Game Time. I have said it a thousand times and I have lived it. I've backed it up. The greatest experiences I have with my family, especially my younger son who is sports obsessed, has been going to games, getting tickets, going to events. We love it. You guys should do it. It's a great gift to give someone this holiday season. You're making memories, friends, family, doesn't matter. Download the gametime app, buy some tickets, have a good time. I'm opening the Game Time app right now from my house here in Connecticut. I can get into some UConn women's hoops games talking less than 35 bucks and that's one of the best teams in the history of college basketball. My favorite part about Game Time, they're all in pricing, shows me the total cost upfront. No surprises no matter where you live. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, use code FAVORITES to get $20 off your first purchase terms apply. Again, create an account, redeem code F A V O R I T e s for $20 off download game time today. What time is it? Game Time each week we give out a two team moneyline underdog parlay and bet 365 boosts the odds and highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages. And remember, both games are eligible for bet365's early payout promo where your Moneyline pick gets marked as a win if they take a 17 point lead even if they lose. So if you want to bet this, bet it at bet365. This week's boosted parlay after a spirited debate in the chat during the show, which is what you might have heard when Simon said no we can't do the Saints. We're going with Carolina as an eight, eight and a half point dog and Atlanta all NFC south boosted parlay. Find the boost under either the Broncos or Falcons game pages on bet365. Okay. Our moneyline underdog round robin.
- [52:46]
Simon Hunter
There will come a payday Hallelujah, what a pay payday There will come a payday someday Someday There will come a payday Hallelujah, what a payday There will come a payday someday.
- [53:03]
Chad Millman
Denver, Atlanta, Carolina, Minnesota. I know you want to put Minnesota in there.
- [53:10]
Simon Hunter
I do.
- [53:11]
Chad Millman
New Orleans.
- [53:14]
Simon Hunter
Do you want to go New Orleans or should we go upside? I mean, it pains me to say this. Should we go upside of Dallas in case Herz is out and you know, they're might be playing Ian book like this is. I'm just trying to. Trying to find big value here. This. There's some good big dogs.
- [53:29]
Chad Millman
Whatever you want to do, Simon, you clearly don't want to do. You clearly don't want to do New Orleans.
- [53:36]
Simon Hunter
I mean, they're plus 100. Dallas is plus 270.
- [53:40]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I get that. But we don't like New Orleans. We know that there's not going to be anyone in the field, so. So we know what we're getting into. It's like that scene in. In Airplane, you know, a movie that only people my age remember where there's like a debate between two newscasters and he's like, Shane, I. They bought their tickets. They knew what they were getting into. I say let them crash. That's kind of what we're doing when we bet on New Orleans.
- [54:08]
Simon Hunter
All right, we could do New Orleans. And you're, you're. You love it. I'm dug in the chat. Yeah.
- [54:14]
Chad Millman
G, E, A, U, X. Go Saints. Let's do it. Who are your biggest bets right now, buddy?
- [54:25]
Simon Hunter
I mean, honestly, I've been. I've been pretty lacking just because of the holiday. I would say Detroit. I went pretty heavy on the minus three. Even at minus three and a half. I've honestly bet it up. I'm feeling very chalky with that one. Panthers as you know, eight, eight and a half. Whatever I could get my hands on. I was betting that now that we're here, I feel like I'm going to be heavy on teasers this week. Like Eagles taking the Eagles down, taking Buffalo down, taking the Colts down. I really like all those favorites just, just to win those games and it just feels like that kind of week. We fit that point. I mean, Evan already talked about it. Basically. Dogs Are only winning outright 25%, maybe even less right now since it was like week eight or seven. So it's been brutal. Brutal if you're a dog better. But if you're someone that loves doing teasers, they've been hitting like the chalk has just been hitting. So not as heavy on the dogs this week as I usually am. Been leading more towards the favorites in week 17.
- [55:21]
Chad Millman
All right, before we get to Evan, reminder, if you're participating in the favorites pick them contest, your picks must be in by 1pm on Saturday, not Sunday. All Saturday games are in the contest this week. Everybody must make picks by 1pm on Saturday. Get those picks in 1pm Saturday, not Sunday. For week 17. We've mentioned him so much. It's time to finally have him on the show. Evan Abrams. Take us through it. The last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.
- [55:57]
C
Well, Chad, I'm still waiting to try to figure out exactly what we were discussing earlier, but I can give you some information.
- [56:04]
Chad Millman
Basically, what I wanted to know was are dogs of plus two or plus two and a half covering as frequently this season as dogs of plus three or three and a half? Because that is becoming so much more of a key number. And I want to know if we're shooting ourselves in the foot by not considering games that get to two and a half because we don't want to play anything below three and that might not be the right answer anymore.
- [56:33]
C
Got it. I looked up the favorites part, so I'll just invert it so it looks like teams to close plus two and plus two and a half are 16 and 19 against the spread. To close plus three and plus three and a half. Here's. Here's some fun math. 25, 31 and 3 against the spread.
- [56:56]
Simon Hunter
Wow.
- [56:57]
Chad Millman
So both are loser numbers.
- [56:59]
C
Both are loser numbers.
- [57:00]
Simon Hunter
Right.
- [57:01]
C
Now, the biggest the thing I thought was interesting and I did it from a favorite point of view. Misunderstanding a little bit, but it looks like -2 for favorites, -3 and -3 and a half have been above 500. The only number below 500 has been -2 and a half, which Simon seems to talk about all the time. But it has been a loser from the favorites point of view this year. 11 and 14.
- [57:22]
Chad Millman
Wait, but you just said favorites.
- [57:25]
C
So everything I gave you was underdogs.
- [57:27]
Chad Millman
Right? But if minus two and a half is a minus two went eight and.
- [57:31]
C
Two against the spread this year. So teams to close minus two, eight, two ATS minus two and a half, 11 and 14.
- [57:40]
Chad Millman
I see. So if you add them up, it's still two. Two and a half is a loser for the Dogs, but two has been a winner.
- [57:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [57:47]
C
Correct for obviously a small sample size in a single season.
- [57:51]
Chad Millman
So interesting. Okay.
- [57:52]
C
All right, let's keep rolling here. So picking your games this week to try to give you a little bit of a boost, some, you know, confidence was interesting looking at the scripts from Tuesday, but I think I did all right here. So we're going to start with Den. So you mentioned the great Bo Nick stat earlier that Raybon gave you. I got one more for you. So Cincinnati's defense are sacking opponent QBs about 2.8% which is bottom third of the league this year. Bonix 8.0ats versus defenses with an opposing sack percentage of 4% or less. He is 2 and 4ats with a number above that 4% with a little more pressure.
- [58:28]
Simon Hunter
So it's a great stat, Evan. Great stat.
- [58:30]
C
Yeah, it just rolls exactly into it. I thought, I thought that was perfect. So that worked out well. That worked out well.
- [58:36]
Chad Millman
Simon's leaning in. He feels so good about that.
- [58:39]
Simon Hunter
Honestly. I'm about to go hammer Denver after here because I already like the we.
- [58:42]
Chad Millman
Need, we need to bet on a dog we need so bad. All right.
- [58:48]
C
This one was a little bit more tough. So you like the Saints this week? I looked up this stat and then I'll throw two trends at you which kind of fall right in line. But you asked if like the Raiders should be favorites in this game as kind of like a question. Here's a great one. So the Raiders are coming off a game where they are, where they broke a 10 game straight up losing streak. They would be the first team since December of 1968 to be favored in a game after breaking a 10 plus game straight up losing streak within the same season. So in this situation, when the team out of nowhere wins a game, shockingly they usually just fall back to where they are. They don't end up as a road favorite in this situation, which is exactly what the Raiders are sitting in. So maybe the line is wrong. And then you've kind of mentioned this before. So teams after Getting shut out 30 and 15 against the spread 67% last decade and then teams with a win percentage below 40% who just lost by 30 plus 90 and 66, 58% since 2003. So yeah, like the Saints are the right historical side here. You're just picking two garbage cans, you know, flying down the river and hoping that one of them goes faster than the other. Okay, last one. Bryce Young I looked into this because I think we all kind of believe what you guys have been preaching. So here's his improvement. So he's been using his legs lately in his first three starts and and remember 03 ATS in that eight scrambles, 34 yards. Week nine on which has been this hot streak for him, 22 scrambles, 190 yards and three touchdowns. He's also been much more accurate, especially downfield. So in his first three starts he had a negative completion percentage over expected. Now that is based off depth of throw which is how the stat gets correlated. That was second worst in the NFL in the first eight weeks. Week nine on he's now top of the league in that stock, top half of the league in that stat. And then finally his catchable ball percentage which just gives the offense more of a chance is up almost five full percentage points and his turnover worthy throws down 2.6% between those two periods. So honestly, Bryce Young playing better and it's showing up in the stats because Carolina now 6 and 1 ATS in their last seven games, best mark in the NFL over that span and they started the year 03 ATS. So sometimes quarterback play doesn't exactly show up in the results. It's front and center here guys.
- [61:09]
Chad Millman
You know who else has a high catchable ball percentage? Tommy John Simon. I'm feeling better and better. I can't wait to put the Saints in our top five. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet5. $5. Sign up using promo code Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary at bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night, 7:30pm Eastern. To recap week 17, download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate Review Subscribe Leave us 5 stars say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800- gambler.
- [63:38]
Simon Hunter
When all hope.
- [63:39]
C
Is lost, all that's left is relief.
- [63:43]
Simon Hunter
Let's play scooch roulette.