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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
Foreign.
- [00:09]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live from my Tommy John home studio and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello. So I'm in Chad.
- [00:30]
Simon Hunter
Is it a new year, new Chad, or is it same old Chad?
- [00:33]
Chad Millman
I, I love myself. Why would I want to change? I feel great. I feel optimistic. I feel like my, my New Year's resolution. Every year I have one New Year's resolution. Live up to my potential. It's all I'm going to try to do every day. Try to do something to make sure I'm living to the fullest of my potential. And if you do that every day, then at the end of the year you can look back and say you've achieved great things. Could be as a parent, as a spouse, as a career journey, as a health journey, whatever it is. So I don't want to change a thing. I'm doing great. How about you?
- [01:25]
Simon Hunter
It's a good man. I'm literally the total opposite of you. I, I've learned in life if you don't try at all, that's the only way to succeed. So yeah, God bless you, Chad.
- [01:33]
Chad Millman
It's so funny how different we are. If, if, if you listed sort of your traits, how you approach life, how you see people, how you view the world and the same things for me, people would think you're the old guy and I'm the young guy and that you've seen it all, you're world weary. That you have a perspective that comes from years and years and decades of hard fought experiences. And I'm just like the irrational optimist who hasn't been beaten down by the world yet.
- [02:18]
Simon Hunter
That's why we're perfect for one another, brother.
- [02:20]
Chad Millman
Today is our NFL Week 18 Best Bets episode's last best bets during the regular season final time, Simon and I will narrow down our five picks for the favorites $100,000 Pro Football Pick Them contest presented by bet365. We will get into the foxhole. We will give out Tommy John big balls Bet of the week. We're going to discuss Simon's biggest bets. Our boosted Moneyline underdog parlay the underdog round robin and so much more. Bets are rolling in. Lines are moving. Decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast boss Colin Coward likes to say, there's a sea of money out there as A reminder, the famous podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older. Present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problems. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions, restrictions apply. Okay, my favorite segment, I saw someone the other day last week someone said to me, you know what my favorite segment on the show is? Sharp Calls. So as always on Thursday during the season, we like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. We are influential lines move off of these conversations. Pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls.
- [04:11]
Simon Hunter
Hello, who's there? I'm talking rain ring, telephone ring.
- [04:17]
Chad Millman
Somebody saying, baby, what you doing?
- [04:20]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, definitely a fun week with all the, I feel like it's a week of just opinions, right? People making opinions and then kind of making moves based off of the coaches opinions. Right? That's, that's the other thing too. It's like this week you're really locked in on all the stupid coaches press conferences and you're trying to read through the lines of what they're saying here. And let's start on what's what sides, the pros on the opposite side of us. So Chad likes the Chargers. I like the Chargers. They love the Raiders. Like every pro I've talked to loves the Raiders on the spot. And I'm not, I don't get it, Chad. So that's the game we have to break down because I really don't understand what they're getting from this Raiders side and that they see the Chargers having a let down here or not trying or maybe resting starters. Does Harbaugh strike you? Is that guy at all? I just do not get what they're reading here in this one.
- [05:07]
Chad Millman
We've got intel on this and this sounds like it's going to be a foxhole.
- [05:11]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, just one that really popped out to me just how many guys I talked to that were on the other side of that one for another game that I think that I, I, I talked about it on Tuesday that I really liked Minnesota and that I was going to probably most likely bet heavily on Minnesota +3. I've talked to a lot of pros that love Detroit, so that's a really fun split game. There's some really smart money on Detroit and for good reason. Right. It's a proven team that's been there before. And what's going to feel like a playoff game against Sam Darnold, like I get their perspective that they think he's going to choke and they, they trust golf and they want to put their money behind a guy like golf. Like can't argue against it. Right. So that, that was another one that really jumped out for two games that I'm on the other side of for games they like that. We like Chad. Bengals. I know a game we're going to break down. You know, most guys I've talked to are on the same side of us with the Bengals. Same goes for this Jaguars game. We love it. Got up to plus five at a couple books. Now it's down to plus four and a half plus four at a couple books. So makes sense. The, the smart money's come in and obviously darling, I should have taken, should have listened to Chad, should have made Simon says the Giants, I, I don't know a single pro right now that's on this Eagles team. It just feels like the exact type of game where Eagles, not that they want to lose, but the coach has already come out and basically said that they're, they're sitting a bunch of key starters and it's most likely going to be the third string quarterback playing in this game. So yeah, very, very interesting how much money's coming on the Giants. They were plus three and a half before Sirianna came out and said he sent Saquon and a bunch of starters. So that number now Chad is down to two, two and a half. Like I said, I wish I had made it. Simon says and for the last one, again, me and you love. I don't know how much actually I don't know how much Tad loves. I just love it. I love Tennessee. Every product talk he loves Tennessee in this exact spot. So that's going to be Joe Public on Houston. Only professionals are going to bet Tennessee who are 2 and 14 against the spread. So makes sense when I'm talking to these guys why no one loves this Tennessee side.
- [07:14]
Chad Millman
I freaking love it. Couple games you pinpointed here that I'm very excited to talk about. Definitely the Chargers, definitely Tennessee and there's a couple others too that I want to get to. But it feels like there is A foxhole bet there that sometimes it's harder to figure these out, but I think we know which one it's going to be. We'll also do our big balls. Buffalo at New England. So this one has moved from three to two and a half. Very the the drama and you talked about it the other day about the Patriots and fans hating the Patriots. It's so interesting because there is a lot of speculation here in the Northeast and in New England about Gerard Mayo. Will the Patriots walk away from Gerard Mayo after one year? The Krafts personally anointed him as the Bill Belichick successor. While Bill Belichick was still the coach. Mike Vrabel is now available. Vrabel is beloved. Vrabel is a proven head coach who has had great results. We love Rabel as a coach, especially when he's an underdog. That to me is always the sign of a good coach is you can cover and you can win. So as an underdog, would they bounce Mayo for Vrabel Rail Mayo this week has said Drake May is starting. They're going to play to win. They have the number one pick. If they lose line has moved to two and a half.
- [08:48]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I could get why Patriots fans would be so pissed off. It's like don't you see what we're trying to do here? I, I get why they're so mad about it, but that conversation about them not picking up variable just because relationships and what they. They believe in, you know, Mayo might be a good guy. All that you know. You know when you know right. Like you know when a guy is legit coach and when they're not and you know you can just tell by the players react to him. And I remember early in the year he was just talking about them being. Being soft and not playing hard and different things like that. Which again wouldn't be a big deal. But he's saying it to the media like that was one of the more bizarre interviews. And you know, anyone that loves football like we do, they know variable's a better coach. Come on now. The guy took Orion Tannehill corpse to be the 1 seed. Like that really happened in, in the AFC. Which is just mind blowing when you look back on it.
- [09:37]
Chad Millman
That's right.
- [09:37]
Simon Hunter
He was able to get that team to be a 1 seed. So yeah, I. The question is Chad, do we want to bet on Mitch Trubisky here in our final five? That's, that's going to be end up end questioning because we know even with their backups and non starters in there. I just trust the Bill's coaching staff, their scheme, what they can do. More so than I trust New England. And this line warrants that. Right. That makes sense that they're still a minus two and a half, minus two and a half, minus three favorite in most books. But yeah, like this is another game where me and you obviously don't like betting favorites. This is not the line. Like there's a lot of dogs. I just like this week. So I be on Buffalo, but it's not a game I'm forcing in there. I just think they're the better team and I, I really wish someone would just explained it. You know Mayo, that if you win this game you could get fired. Like I, I, I do think the noise would be turned up by the fan base. I don't know if Kraft could avoid that. Cuz it's, it's inexcusable to start May here in my opinion. Especially the sh, the hits he's been taking. Like he got his bell rung last week and he came right back in. And I think the first play he was in, he ran down the field, which is awesome. Like shows he's got a heart and he's a tough kid. But at the same time, what's, what are we doing here? Like, are we really going to waste this kid in this type of game where I just, I'm just so against it. So yeah, from, from the betting side, Chad, two and a half. I'll bet the Bills, but with very small confidence. We're betting in Mitch Trubisky.
- [11:01]
Chad Millman
Yeah, the, the, the crafts have just lost a lot of credibility with fans over the last 24 months. Between the documentary and in which it seemed like Bob Kraft was throwing Belichick under the bus, sticking with Mayo in this spot just could be another blow to the confidence of fans in the ownership group. Nothing's going to change. It's not like they're going to get rid of the team. But this is a real chance for them to make a substantial move to improve their organization. Especially if the Patriots win this game and lose the first pick. Oh my gosh. Houston at Tennessee for 17 weeks. Simon, we have avoided the Titans. It might be our greatest success. They have shown value against power ranking power rankings in nearly every game. They've played in 14 of those games. You alluded to this. They did not cover the spread. No matter what happens in this game, they will go down as the worst against the spread team. Since we've been tracking this maybe in NFL history. Evan can confirm that later in the Show they're currently 2 and 14 in week 18. Simon. They are our Simon says. And now we got word that the wise guys are all over the Titans. Give it to me. Lay it on me.
- [12:30]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it is interesting when you're reading about what the Texans are going to do in this spot and who they are resting. Obviously CJ is not playing this. A couple of key starters. Nico Collins isn't playing a bunch of guys. Wynderson is not playing on the defense. When you go on the flip side for Tennessee Titans everybody's playing like the coach. Not that he scoffed at it, but he kind of laughed. It's like no, they're about to get whatever we said a six month vacation after this. Not direct quote from him but basically gave us a slanted like a little look to the reporter being like what would we. Yeah exactly. What kind of stupid question is that? So we know the stats right? Will Levis 2 and 9 against the spread. Mason Rudolph 05 against the spread this season. So doesn't matter what quarterback is playing. This team is just all around bad. But like we talked about, they're in this unique position of people don't understand how desperate teams get for a win. Like it's, it's. It's a different type of high but it's a high that they crave. Right. It's. It's something that you just need it every week you lose, the world looks a little darker, everything feels a little shittier, everything sucks. And you just know especially they talk to guys in this locker room why they've been trying so hard these last couple weeks because again they have not been playing for anything Tennessee. But every week even though they've been losing, they still play really hard. I really think that is something that like you turn on the tape, you can see it. I mean their defense like you've been talking all season, I, I know I laughed at it but their defense is like second or third and giving up yards this season at least amount of yards. Like they've been really good at not teams not moving the ball against them. The issues have been right just giving up touchdowns. Like they can't stop teams it seem like in the red zone. So yeah this is to me is all about the number. There is one really public book out there. Still had Tennessee at plus one and a half last night. Now even them have moved to minus one. So even, even at this point they've followed the professional money because I'm looking the action app right now all the Tickets, all the tickets are on Houston, but the money is basically split, right? It's, it's, it's slanted towards this Tennessee team. So, yeah, would have, we would have liked it if they were a dog. Yes, we definitely mean Chad. Hate lines that flip. It just has never worked out for us for the most part. But in this one, I feel confident that the, the smart money is coming on the right side. The money is moving the way it should. And this is another team, Tennessee, that, you know, if the Patriots win, they lose, they could get the one seed. These guys don't care. Like, they're like, we just talked about the same thing in New England. Like, they're, they're kind of going with the idea of we just want to win. And I get it. That's. That's part of football, right? No one cares about the draft picks. They don't even know if they'll be on the team next year. So this Tennessee team, I just, I can see them trying really hard. On the flip side, with Houston, I just, I, I'm happy to bet against their second team. There's just a team that, to me, was already bad coming to this game. The whole vibe of Houston was bad. Now we're getting in their, their scrubs for the second team. So I, I like Tennessee in this matchup.
- [15:21]
Chad Millman
Simon goes back to what I said at the beginning of the show. People just want to live up to their potential. They just want to try. They want to feel satisfied with the effort. They want to go to bed at night, know that they gave it their all, and feel good that what they exercised during a week paid off in some capacity. And the Titans have just not felt that. And the Titans, from everything I've read, I've been digging in, you know, reading all that I can about coaching moves, GM moves, trying to get anything about some incentive for this week. Seems very likely that the Titans are going to bring back their gm, they're going to bring back their coach, and they're going to try to find the quarterback that the three of them together can build this franchise as they. They're really thinking about they got a new stadium opening in two years. How can they get better? They're going to give that team the opportunity and that executive team the opportunity to turn this thing around and get the right player there. They don't have to worry about sort of tanking or not playing up to the best of their ability. I'm with you. I'm with you. Another one. Jacksonville at Indy. Still no word on Anthony Richardson.
- [16:39]
Simon Hunter
So when you see the reports about.
- [16:43]
Chad Millman
Him that he couldn't walk last week.
- [16:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, he couldn't walk a week ago.
- [16:47]
Chad Millman
Yeah, like so. But they're still saying if he is healthy, he'll play.
- [16:52]
Simon Hunter
That's insane.
- [16:53]
Chad Millman
But like, we, we lean Jags, I think we feel strongly about it, more strongly about it this week or now than we did on Tuesday. To me, it's more of a vibe than anything on the field. Right. Jags have been trying hard. They've been keeping games close. Mac Jones has been outperforming bad quarterbacks. They won. And the Colts culturally just feel like they're a little bit lost. And I think that game took the wind out of them and is raising a lot of questions about will Shane Steichen still be there? What is their future at quarterback? What is happening with their gm who you mentioned the other day, Chris Ballard has a reputation as a great gm, has not won the division in eight years. A division that has terrible teams year in and year out. This is not the NFC north of 2024. So they are locked into Trevor Lawrence as their quarterback. Draft position is not going to mean as much for them. Normally, based on last week's performance, we'd fade the Jags and want to bet the Colts. But I don't feel that way this week.
- [18:08]
Simon Hunter
No. And honestly, it's because it is the Colts that the Jags, they historically have matched up really well. Them. It was just like we talked about last week. The Eagles and Cowboys, there's just certain teams that teams can match up really well against. And that same goes here for this Jackson that they've always, even when there's, you know, ups and downs with their quarterbacks or their quarterbacks hurt, they've always played really well against this cold team and kept games close. And usually their games end up being shootouts, like, especially when it's Indianapolis. So this to me is all about the number. Like, this number is way too big, way too much respect. Even if it is Anthony Richardson. I, I could see it dropping because I just think the books give more respect to Joe Flacco. But, you know, four and a half, four, way too many points for us to pass on. Like, I, I love this number. I love this Jags team and what we just talked about. Like, I just. The vibes for this Jack team just feel so much better. We're like them going in and winning this game. That makes more sense to me so much more than the Colts winning this game. Colts, to me, like, they're, they're done like half their team feels like they're already half foot out the door and they're ready to go on vacation. They're just discussing with the front office, discussed with the coaching and you know, that was one of the least prepared teams I've seen all season last week against that Giants team. Like even going back, watching the tape, just defensively, Gus Bradley was just awful. Like again, that's a man that's guaranteed to be let go and on a different team next year. So, yeah, we're just simply playing the number here, Chad, like the matchup for this Jags team and just the way they've been down the stretcher, it's just a team that has not quit. Surprisingly, they've improved in some ways. And I know the dirty secret kind of is out right now that Doug Peterson's basically gone and they're going off the guy. I know you want Ben Johnston from lines and they're apparently going to give him just whatever he wants, which is really interesting to know. Will he leave the division, NFC north and go down there where it's like, I don't know again? I just think it's all line up perfectly for the Bears where it's like you guys are getting a guy who knows the Detroit offense and how to take down the big bad wolf, your division. Him going to, him going to the Jags would be very. The Bears. The Bears just don't spend enough money or give him enough to do whatever he wants and he leaves to go to Jacksonville just because if they're going to let him make decisions on the draft, that's a big deal. Like first time head coach, now he gets to make decision on the draft as well. So yeah, for Jacksonville, we all know that these players, they seem like they like Doug Peterson. One more. One more game for Dougie. Give him. Give me plus four and a half on this Jaguars team.
- [20:31]
Chad Millman
Simon, I 100% believe that Ben Johnson is going to the Jags. I don't think the Bears have a shot right now. You know, I don't have any insight, but just knowing the Bears history, knowing how the Bears manage the coaching interview process, knowing that they have not been able to overcome, knowing the coaches have not been able to come overcome ownership issues in multiple generations. Other than Mike Ditka, other than John Fox.
- [21:07]
Simon Hunter
Was he the last one?
- [21:10]
Chad Millman
No. Lovey Smith took him to the Super Bowl.
- [21:12]
Simon Hunter
Yes, you're right. Lovey. Lovey was great and he got fired in the worst way. Right. They had bad karma from that firing of Lovey.
- [21:19]
Chad Millman
The Bears Fired a coach who took him to the super bowl and was 10 and 6 the year he was fired.
- [21:24]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [21:25]
Chad Millman
So they've got. They've. I think they've got executive staff dysfunction. Right. Because we don't really know how involved Kevin Warren is going to be the new president. The president in any of these decisions. They've always been cheap. You can go to the AFC south if you like Trevor Lawrence. That's the one critical factor. Ben Johnson has to like what he has in Trevor Lawrence. Right. The Jags are invested in him. We don't think he's been that great. He has underperformed. But if you like him and think he can run your offense, you got a better chance in winning than you do in the NFC north over the next three to four years. And that's your horizon as a coach. So would not be surprised at all if he blew off the Bears and went to Florida where it's warm and you don't pay taxes and you know you got a better shot.
- [22:15]
Simon Hunter
I don't have pornhub, though.
- [22:17]
Chad Millman
What's that?
- [22:18]
Simon Hunter
Keep going.
- [22:19]
Chad Millman
I didn't know what you said before we get to Washington at Dallas. These are the final days of our favorites Pick em contest. Saturday games are not in the contest this week, but we've got Dee Windsorberg in first place with 61 points and 9 entries in at 56 points or more. A dog fight to the finish. First place is 40 grand, second is 10 grand. Third place is 5 grand. Cash prizes for the whole top 10. Excited to crown a winner. It's not going to be us. Hopefully we get the winner on the podcast, whoever it is. The invite is open. Washington at Dallas. We lean Dallas on Tuesday. The line has moved in that direction. It's four and a half. Did you see the clip of Eagles fans cheering Jerry Jones in Philly last week?
- [23:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Yeah. Ultimate troll job.
- [23:15]
Chad Millman
So good. So good. And Jerry's just smiling, laughing, you know, just so funny. Just great to see Jerry owning it all. I think it's better than 50. 50. Mike McCarthy stays. If it's Jerry Jones's choice, he might leave because his contract is up and he can go look anywhere he wants to look. But fascinating subplot here. I do think there's been a sea change in sort of people believing McCarthy will stay if. If he has the option and Jerry Jones wants him to and he decides that's the best option for him. If he leaves, it might be because he wants to leave. I don't think that has an impact on this game. I Just thought it was interesting.
- [24:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I saw Chef. He talked about how basically all of his assistance assistants as well or deals are done, so he'd basically need to resign all the guys on his coaching staff. So, yeah, it's. As an Eagles fan, I. I kind of want them to bring McCarthy back just because I fear the unknown that if they do get a guy like Vrabel, that would be disastrous for us. But, yeah, that's. Jerry's in a weird spot and this Cowboys team's in a weird spot where it's like me and you both love it because of the number and the letdown we expect from Washington in this exact game. But this is another game I'm betting with very little confidence just because my fear is this. This Cowboys team is basically just on their last leg. Like, they have guys who've had big injuries, they've come back, they've played through it at this point, but you can just tell that like even that Eagles game, they just were not. They were not into that game at all. So this is gonna be another game where the public is going to hammer the commanders. We'll see if they get lucky again. Chad. Cause this is again, another good number against a team that's overvalued in the commanders. And you know, we've seen it all season. Like the. The fourth down variance for the commanders has just been absolutely insane. I think in that game, we bet. I don't know if they went three for three or two for two, but it felt like every time they needed a big play on fourth down, it happened for him. And you know, it's historical. The 6, 6 rate they've had on fourth downs. It's just insane this season. So we know what this bet's going to come down to. It's going to come down to fourth downs. Again. It's just. It's just how it's been betting against this Washington team. If they capitalize, me and Chad are most likely going to burn. But this is just a number that's way too big. Like, I. I think I'd probably. If this was a fully healthy with CD Lamb. You know, again, obviously this is different if Dax playing, but if it's CD Lamb with Cooper Rush. Okay, we make this, what, three, three and a half?
- [25:52]
Chad Millman
Yeah, the.
- [25:53]
Simon Hunter
The point. The point bump makes sense, right? There should be four, four and a half at this point, but it's just a spot where it's. It. You know, we've seen the historical data. Teams that are playing for playoff positions going against a team that you know, way below.500 that have not been good this year. They tend to cover in this week. That's why we love betting these type of dogs in the final week of the season. Just, oh, circly, we've seen it, right? Teams kind of play up to the moment, try to be the spoiler. Obviously they're not going to knock Washington out of the playoffs here, but if they do beat them, you know, Washington now go face Philly. That's. That's a big deal. So pretty, pretty interesting what the Cowboys might do here. Everything I've read, it seems like, you know, Micah Parsons playing. All their starters are playing. Only guy really missing is going to be CD obviously.
- [26:35]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And this commander's defense is terrible. And I, I'm not afraid of betting Cooper Rush as a four and a half point dog in this spot. Even without CD he's just been an effective backup quarterback and the Eagles have been the one team that he really can't unlock. Right. And you look at the other games and I think that the problem for this year is that his first game was against the Eagles and it was so bad that it depressed the market on the Cowboys. And I think a lot of people have missed the value because they're only thinking about that first Eagles game. And then he started to play a little bit better and they had a run. And then this past week he hit the Eagles again and now I think the Commanders are overvalued because of what they did against the Falcons, but also what the Cowboys did against the Eagles. I still think you're getting pretty nice Price and the Cowboys here. I don't know if it's going to be in our final five, but I'm not as afraid of the Cowboys in this spot as you are, or the Commanders for that matter. I think their defense is pretty bad.
- [27:37]
Simon Hunter
And I just want not to cut you off on Tennessee. That line's running now. So basically everywhere that I had them as a dog basically has them up to minus one and a half now, so.
- [27:45]
Chad Millman
Oh, wow.
- [27:46]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, the money. The money's starting to come in now here on Tennessee.
- [27:49]
Chad Millman
All right, Carolina at Atlanta one more time. It's time to celebrate. Look, Carolina plus eight. We both love the Panthers on Tuesday. I would imagine we still love the Panthers. The lines move from eight and a half to eight. We cannot quit the Panthers right now, Simon, to remind people of the stakes. If the Bucks win, they're in. The Bucks lose, then the fat and the Falcons win. They're in. The games are at 1 o'clock there will be some scoreboard watching if it's at any point. Bucks are blowing out the Saints and there's no chance the Falcons are going to get in the Tide in this game. Could change. We could find the back door, but, but generally we just like Bryce Young. We're going to continue to back Bryce Young. Give us the foul. Give us the Panthers.
- [28:43]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we can't quit them. And honestly, my confidence in this one has been coming from the breakdown of Penix. And I know again, it's only two games, it's a very small sample, I get that. But it's actually pretty interesting statistically how, you know, I might have overrated him a little bit after his first game and that he actually isn't that great of a passer right now. And he's still kind of working through things, which we expect, right? It's, it's his second now. This will be his third start. So that's, that's a lot of confidence to me is that, you know, this is a huge spread for a guy like him. And we saw in that Giants game, right, he, they, they were kind of losing, not fight. They couldn't find themselves and all of a sudden, you know, drew through a pick six and that kind of reset that whole game where, okay, once they got the lead again, they can lean back onto the running. So that'll be the key here. For me, it's like, can they stop Robinson? Which no one has done in the last 10 weeks, right? Like Robinson has bargained been a top three running back now this season and he's been dominant. And we know, me and Chad know because we've been betting them all season. Panthers cannot stop the run.
- [29:46]
Chad Millman
Like their best hundred yards rushing allowed in five straight weeks, right?
- [29:52]
Simon Hunter
So again, it's because when their best D linemen got knocked down either week one or week two and it was.
- [29:57]
Chad Millman
Like, okay, for the season.
- [29:58]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, yeah, that's the end of their run defense right there. Like, that's, that's the guy for them. And that's the fear here. That's the reason me and Chad are getting eight points here. Just because of that. It's. We, we hope Bryce. I'm gonna keep this in this, but this is really going to come down to stopping the run and putting this on Pennocks. Like you need to stack the box, make this kid beat you with his arm. Just because like I said, he's high variance in his throws. Like he, he throws uncatchable balls and know it, I don't know if it Looks weird to you, but seeing him throw left, it is different. Like we talk all the time. That is a difference for these receivers, catching a lefty throw than a righty throw. And it just looks different coming out of his hand to the receiver. So this to me just feels like an inflated line, especially because Carolina just got rolled absolutely blown out the week before and they've been good to us bouncing back. Them burning me and Chad one last time would not be shocking to the least, but I just can't help myself. I believe in Bryce Young, believe in their offense, and I really do think will be either have a chance to win this game outright or easily have a chance to back during the summer. It just feels way too big. Way too much respect to this Atlanta team.
- [31:02]
Chad Millman
I also don't worry about effort in this game. This is a team where they know the coach is going to be back. They're starting to get a pretty good sense of who their quarterback is. They've built momentum in the latter half of the year. Yeah, they don't. They don't want to end the year on a shitty game with a bad taste in their mouth. They want, I think it matters to win the last game of the year if you're a bad team and be able to see positivity and have confidence and feel like you have some kind of momentum. So I don't have, I don't have a problem back in the Panthers here at all. It's going to suck. We're going to do it. Chicago plus 10 at Green Bay. This line has moved up. You like the Bears on Tuesday at 9. It's gone up to 10. The packers need to win and they need the Commanders to lose to move up from the seventh seed to the six seed. So there will be some scoreboard watching and there are some trends that back the Bears here. This was one of the saddest things of all the things about the Bears that make me sad. ESPN this week did a survey of 111 NFL players of the hardest places to play in the NFL. One, two and three were Kansas City, Seattle and Minnesota. Actually, four was Philly, by the way, and Matt Mitchell. Five was Buffalo. But the Bears Soldier field tied for 31st after the Oakland Coliseum. I know the game's in Green Bay this week, but I'm thinking about the Bears. How pathetic is that? Tie for 31st after Oakland Coliseum. I'll remind you, they don't play NFL games in Oakland anymore.
- [32:51]
Simon Hunter
I mean, honestly, it's pretty shocking just because I always thought Chicago was just the Toughest place to play because not only are the weather is brutal, but you guys, even when you're terrible, you sell out. And the fans are loud. So that's, that's interesting. Maybe they're not as loud as we perceive on tv.
- [33:05]
Chad Millman
They ruined the stadium when they built the new alien spaceship inside a soldier field. It ruined the acoustics. It's not as loud as it used to be. And also like the team's just bad. It's been bad for so long. People leave games early and if it's really, really cold, then people who have season tickets are selling their tickets at the end of the year. So you're getting, you know, randoms who, sometimes they're super fans, sometimes it's a holiday gift. They're just taking their kids. Like I know it because like I have so many friends who have season tickets or have had season tickets over the past of 40 years. So it's not as loud as you would think it is. Not like 85 when I was sitting in the 20 yard line against the Giants and the Rams during the playoffs.
- [33:55]
Simon Hunter
Those were the, those are the days. Take me back to 85, baby. Damn, I missed 85, dude.
- [34:00]
Chad Millman
Sean Gale, oh my God. Was just amazing.
- [34:04]
Simon Hunter
People were smoking cigarettes in the stadium still. Damn. Those were the days.
- [34:08]
Chad Millman
They were, I, I like they were passing me drinks and I was, you know, 15 years old.
- [34:13]
Simon Hunter
Put a little hair in your chest. Yeah, you're right. I don't want to bet this one. I don't know what was wrong with me on Tuesday. I did bet this Chicago team, but no pros are on this game. I feel like most guys are avoiding this game for different games. And after reading Evan's article gave me legit zero confidence in this Bears team. I think they're 1 in 10 straight up in their last 11 against this green Bay team. And it's just, you know, like you said on Tuesday, that just, it's not even a rival anymore. Right. It's just so one sided. It's, it's brutal. So I might be eating these words come Sunday. And the bear shocked the world and do finally pull an upset off. And I'm an idiot because I, I didn't hammer this and stick my, my chest out on this one. But there's just other dogs I like better. And you're right, like the fear for me is that locker room for Chicago is just totally out. Like they're just totally gone. Totally giving up on this team in this front office. And they do know that this is not the coaching staff for next year. So you're right. There's. There's really no incentive other than personal incentives to play for this one. So, yeah, hate it all. All. Everything coming out of Chicago right now is just so negative. I. I don't want to be putting money on this.
- [35:18]
Chad Millman
One reminder. Bears have not won a road game on a Sunday since our friend Nick Foles did it for them in December of 21. All right, the game that we talked about earlier, sharp calls. New York Giants plus two at Philly. Philly was fourth. Toughest to play. Buffalo fifth. Saquon will not be playing. How do you feel about that?
- [35:38]
Simon Hunter
A wise man once said it best, Chad. Records can be broken. Banners hang forever. So, yeah, do I want him to break the record so I can shove it down Giants faces? Like, yeah, I mean, it's been a great day. If you're just an alternative, ultimate hater of your division and talking to one another, it's been a fun week, especially on Reddit, where, you know, Giants fans trying to make it like, well, Eric Dickerson did it in 16 games, so it's not real a record. Well, I guess O.J. did it in 14 games. Is that the real record? Or Jim Brown, who did it in 10 games. Is that the real record? I mean, what are we doing here? So it's been a fun week of just trying to act like they're not pissed off for it. I don't know. Giants fans, they got to be down the worst out of any fan base right now in football, especially after losing the number one pick last week. It was just. It's just been too good. So, yeah, Saquon, I could see it in his eyes and the way he talked about it. He's bummed, right? He wants that legacy. Like he said, that's. That's something amazing I have attached to his last name. But as someone that knows that Saquon's never had any playoff success, I think once he gets his first playoff win, that feeling will go away where he'll realize, like, dude, the ultimate goal here is to hang that banner. And, yeah, Eagles right now. I mean, obviously, we'll talk about next week. Like, Hertz is still not even on a concussion protocol. Like, it's. It's. It's. It's bad if he's. If he's got a really bad concussion like that, because that's just. Those are the symptoms that just don't go away. Now he's two weeks in, so, yeah, between that Saquon, you know, this Eagles team using this As a bye week. That's great. Giants just popped back up to plus three at a couple really public books. So some smart money now has come in on the Eagles here this morning, which is pretty surprising. But nothing's changing my position. I think the Giants, they're going to play hard. The Eagles, you know, they're going to play the rookies, I guess, and a couple other guys, but for the most part, they're going to be sitting almost all their starters, especially across the offensive line. And we expect to be Tanner McKee at quarterback again. Guy making his first start his career. I know he came in and did well against the Cowboys, but I feel like at that point the Cowboys kind of had quit on that game. So, yeah, we expect the Giants to keep shooting themselves in the foot, win this game, give themselves worse draft capital. But again, Evan had an amazing thing in his article about Brian Dable. Like the guy has been money in these final weeks of the season. I believe he's five and oh, against the spread in the final two weeks of the season. Right, Evan. So his teams play hard for him. He doesn't really care about draft position. He's. He's got one thing in mind, that's the win. So, yeah, this, this matchup for the Eagles, I was really worried about. They were going to play Saquon, but after Sirianna's conversation yesterday, you know for a fact he's not playing. Guys like Lane Johnson's not playing, that's going to be a big deal, right? They're going to be wrestling so many key starters. So, yeah, just take the points here. I just think I get where the public's coming from. They're like, there's no way Giants win back to back weeks. I get it. But we always see these final weeks are just weird, right? These, these teams like the Eagles, the best statistical team in football, that is not going to be the same team on Sunday. Right. They're not going to show. They're not going to show anything defensively and they're not going to show anything offensively. Right. They're just going to start preparing for the. The following week. So I love this spot for this Giants team.
- [38:49]
Chad Millman
I saw A clip of A.J. brown, of Tanner McKee realizing A.J. brown had thrown, yeah, the first touchdown pass into the stands and he was handling it great. He's like, oh, that's too bad. And then AJ Brown, who felt so bad about it, ran over, told him that he got it back, said he was so sorry. Like, it was just, it was so genuine. And authentic, like how badly A.J. brown felt about it. I thought it was a great scene because, like, you get to see real connection and like how these players recognize what a big deal it is to throw a touchdown pass in the NFL. And it doesn't matter if you're the first string, second string, third string, or the high profile, $100 million temperamental receiver. He recognized he screwed up and felt terrible. For a guy who has a special moment and fixed it and then went over and apologized, I thought it was just adorable.
- [39:51]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it was hilarious. The guy who caught the ball is like very classic South Philly looking guy. Like, yes. Was like, I got you.
- [39:59]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I got you.
- [40:00]
Simon Hunter
Flexing to him being like, you guys are the heart and soul of this team. And then of course, Big Dom was the one that came over and got the ball. It just had all so. Yeah, very funny.
- [40:08]
Chad Millman
That Dom thing is, is like so easy to explain as a Philly phenomenon and hard to explain for anyone who doesn't follow sports or understand Philly sports culture. Like, there's nobody in the stands who, if Big Dom came over and said, give me the ball, wasn't going to give Big Dom the ball. You know what I mean?
- [40:33]
Simon Hunter
I just always think it's funny where you think about all the stuff we don't know about what Big Dom does. Like, you know, he's the guy showing up at 3am at the police stat and get the guy and drive him home. Like, he just, he's a Do it all guy. And I just love that he's become such a personality in Philly.
- [40:46]
Chad Millman
I think he's the first guy the cops call. I think he's the first guy the agents call. I think he's the first guy anyone calls if there's anything going down and they need to fix something right away. LA Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders. So this line's come down a little bit. You said the wise guys are liking the Raiders. Yeah, I get it. I get it.
- [41:02]
Simon Hunter
Jim Harbaugh at all.
- [41:04]
Chad Millman
Well, I get like, you know, thinking, what are the Chargers playing for here? They do have some seating to play for. They get the 5 seed if they win and the Steelers lose. So they will know like what they're playing for by the time this game kicks off. It's one of the few games where seating will be where, where the stakes will be determined and they won't have to scoreboard watch. But Harbaugh went on the let's Go show with, with, you know, Jim Gray and Belichick said he was playing to win the game. That's what I would fully expect from Jim Harbaugh. I would take that to mean he's not resting his starters and if there are still stakes to be had, I don't mind betting the Chargers here. It's like the reason why road favorites have been winning this year is usually because of good coaching and limited mistakes from their quarterback. That's what the Chargers have. It's why we liked them against the Patriots last week. I think you're getting a lot of love for the Raiders right now because they're on a two game win streak that doesn't phase me if this, if the Chargers have something to play for and we'll know by the time we put our picks in.
- [42:05]
Simon Hunter
I like the Chargers, the Raiders, not that they just beat Jacksonville, but I feel like they kind of got away with one there. Right there was like a last fourth quarter drive and they stole that game and then they beat the Saints. Other than that we've seen when they played any team that's semi well coached or outside the Chiefs. Right, the Chiefs, their games are always weird against the Chiefs. We knew that we, we took them against the Chiefs in that exact matchup. But anyone else, you go through their schedule, they just get dominated. Like well coached teams that are smart, that have a good quarterback just dominate this Raiders team. That's exactly what we have here. Like we talk coming in the season I, I had doubts about Herbert being consistent for good reason even he's been a little inconsistent the second half. He's been great like since he's come back kind of healed from that injury, that ankle injury. Especially his last couple weeks you've really seen him so confident, pushing the wall downfield, be totally in tune with this offense at this point. Like he looks so comfortable in this game and I'm happy to know the Chargers hopefully will not be sitting there starters because to me they should just keep the rhythm going. Like yeah, they're a team that basically no one's going to believe for them in the playoffs. Right. They're a year early at this point that makes sense why people don't believe in them. Especially when you're talking about Lamar, Josh Allen and the Chiefs. It's like okay, if, if it's Mahomes versus him in this exact scenario we just think Mahomes gonna get the best of him at the end of that game. But in these type of scenarios when he's playing bad teams, I just feel like Herbert shines and same with horrible. So maybe this line movement because what you just said, maybe the, the pros who have been in Pittsburgh beating Cincy, maybe that's the thought here where it's just like they're combining these two because they're like, well, the Chargers will sit their starters because they have nothing to play for. But, you know, that's. That's a decision mean you. Like you just said, we can make Sunday morning if we need to. But I'm happy to lock this line in now because, say, they do get blown out. Pittsburgh, couldn't this line go up to six? I don't know. I just. I find it very interesting that it has moved so much. And yeah, I just. I love this Chargers team, especially when they're playing a bad. A bad team. Their coach is horrible. He's a psychopath. He's not going to take his foot off the gas. Like, I just feel like they're gonna go out there, try to whoop on this division foe.
- [44:11]
Chad Millman
Jim Harbaugh is my New Year's resolution spirit animal. I want to live up to the full, to my full potential. Jim Harbaugh says they are attacking week 18 with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind.
- [44:27]
Simon Hunter
Don't gamble. Don't associate with gamblers. Avoid it like the plague.
- [44:34]
Chad Millman
That's why I'm attacking this show. We didn't come into the show thinking, all right, it's week 18. Can't really make any predictions. We digested it. We did the work, we watched the press conferences, looked at the trends. We're coming in here, we're playing to win the week. We want to go five and out. We want to live up to our fullest potential every single week. We are the Jim Harbaugh led Los Angeles Chargers of the favorites pick'em contest. Podcasting world, you know me, regardless of.
- [45:09]
Simon Hunter
What'S going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team. I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy.
- [45:15]
Chad Millman
I wanna talk about the Rams and Seattle. I did like him. I liked Seattle at 3 on Tuesday. I did make it my executive decision. It's not been a great category for me this year, but I would like the full credit at 3. It moved to 4 during the show because I'm sharp and people hear what I'm saying and then they immediately start following me. It's now six and a half. Like, I'm not sure why the move happened so late. McVeigh had telegraphed he was going to rest his starters. He had said it in his podcast earlier in the week. I talked about it on Tuesday. He Said he was looking forward to seeing Jimmy Garoppolo and Blake Corum play. So, like now he's confirmed it. I also mentioned Gino has 4 million in incentives that he's going for that are relatively easy to get. So we know he'll be playing. We like the Seahawks and playing for a new coach. They want to put good stuff on tape. They want to build momentum. It's up to six and a half now. We're not going to bet it put in the contest, but it's amazing to me that it took so long for it to get that far.
- [46:23]
Simon Hunter
But I think you just nail why it did because he basically confirmed it and that's when you really saw the line shoot up to six, six and a half. Like when he came out and basically said, everyone's sitting and I'm excited to see Jimmy be playing in this game. It's like that was. To me, that was when the line really moved, like literally right when he had that press conference. So.
- [46:41]
Chad Millman
Yeah, but isn't this about finding the edge? Right. Like, we had intel and we had information and McVeigh had sort of telegraph this when it was at 3. Why were people waiting so long? That's when you want to bet, when you feel like you can get sort of get a. Get a jump on the competition.
- [47:01]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's what I mean, though. Maybe they were just waiting for him to really confirm it before they. They won.
- [47:05]
Chad Millman
The cowards. That's what I say. Hours.
- [47:08]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I mean, it depends on when you're betting a certain amount of money, though. You want to be sure what you're betting on. So. Yeah, this is a game where I'm happy we can avoid it now because it's moved too much. I. I honestly didn't want to have too much invested in this one just because, you know, Gino has not looked right since that knee injury. And that's the God honest truth. Like he didn't look right the week before. And you know, at three, like you said, that to me was an amazing value and that was like a good number because it is him with starters going up against a backup of the Rams team. And we know how top heavy the Rams are as well. Like, they're just like Houston. There are stars in scrub team. They're just a team of really good players and the. The bottom of it's really bad. Right. They're really thin once you start going through the layers. So the. The Rams here though, they're. They are a young team, so I wouldn't be shocked if they do play a lot of the young starters on defense, but offensively, what I read, that's basically going to be the rookie running back and then, you know, backup quarterback. And no Cooper, no Cooper cup, no Puk and a coup. And it's like you go down the line, it's like, okay, can Jimmy keep them in this game competitively? Sure he can maybe keep this close, but do I see him winning this out right now? So, yeah, agree with your play at three, at six and a half, that just feels way too rich to back the Seahawks team.
- [48:20]
Chad Millman
By the way, I forgot to mention that the Los Angeles Chargers will be our foxhole bet. We are clearly on the opposite side. Otherwise, guys, more in that one than any other game this week. Los Angeles Chargers are the foxhole. Meanwhile, our big balls bet of the week presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great game start, great underwear, and Tommy John makes the greatest. That was me giving my big balls announcement to the fullest of my potential. Kansas City plus 10 and a half at Denver. It got up to 11 on Wednesday. There was a little bit of buyback. We're on the Chiefs here. I don't understand the Chiefs at 16 and 1. I know who's playing and who's not, but they still have the best strategic offensive mind in football. A quarterback who is not a 14 point difference from Patrick Mahomes in Carson Wentz. This is just too big of a number. It makes no. It makes no sense to me whatsoever.
- [49:42]
Simon Hunter
No. And it's. It's gonna be the most public dog of the week. Right? Cause I think everyone's in agreement with us of this line's way too big. And I think they originally moved it this high because there were whispers that Carson Wentz was gonna sit in this game too. That they didn't want to risk injuring him either. They were going to play their third string. And then Andy came out yesterday and said no, it's, it's. It's Carson. The weirdest thing is that it hasn't moved. Like it went down from a couple books out of 11. Yeah, it went to ten and a half, but I thought this would be eight and a half. Eight. After the announcement, it was Carson. You're right. It's like, is he really 14, 15 points worse than my homes? It's. It feels like it's a bit dramatic, especially when, you know, we've come to realize, especially as Mahomes is, you know, especially. You can't duplicate how he's so Confident, great in the pocket, everything like that. But we talk it's injury in the scheme is something that's very, very, very, very important to this team. And you know, obviously my homes didn't have the numbers this year because they basically would just run the ball the whole second half and just ball control team. So I don't think he made. I'd have to look, but I'm pretty sure he missed the Pro bowl. Right?
- [50:45]
Chad Millman
He didn't make the Pro Bowl.
- [50:47]
Simon Hunter
Right. And it's like, you know, guy comes off two Super Bowls, goes 15,01, but he doesn't have the stats because their team is just so smart. He knows they don't need to force balls downfield. They can just run the second half. He'll never have the stats to make the pro. Bonding, you know, that's just part of it. It's a team sport. That's why we love football. Right? It's the ultimate team sport. So yeah, this is a line that me and Chad love going to have in the money line around Robin. This is just the best part of the final week of the season. Like a team like this that no one's going to believe in can kind of shock the world here. But unfortunately people do believe this one. Like I said, this is going to be the most public dog most likely of the week because I think everyone's just like me and Chad. They're all just like, best team in football over 10 points. Take that. Best team. Like I, I'm with them. Like it's very caveman, very simple. Don't overthink this one. Just take the points with this. And I'd be shocked, shocked if this doesn't go below 10 before kickoff. I just can't, can't see what professionals putting real money on this Denver team at this big of a favorite with a rookie quarterback, which essentially is another playoff game. Like this is a legit playoff game. Might not be to the Chiefs and yeah, they're playing backups here, but you know, Andy joked it's fun playing spoiler. If they can play spoiler here, he's going to try to do it. So I love this number for this Chiefs team.
- [51:59]
Chad Millman
Shocked. Shocked. I tell you. That is our Tommy John. Big balls better the week, Simon. It's a whole new year 2025. I don't know if you know this, but one year ago, my life was total chaos. And it was only after months of searching that I came to realize the source of this chaos. Inferior, low quality underwear, flippant resolutions come and go. But the choice to permanently transform your life for the better can start right this second. And with a special sale for our listeners. Tommy John is standing by to make that transformation happen with thousands of transformative five star reviews everyone can see. Tommy John will help put you on a path to becoming a whole new person for the long year ahead. Simon, why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John in the year 2025?
- [53:02]
Simon Hunter
It's the gift that lasts.
- [53:04]
Chad Millman
Right now you can shop tommyjohn.com favorites for the holidays and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn. That's tommyjohn.com favorites okay, last one on the board, Minnesota +3 now at that 365 at Detroit. You liked Minnesota on Tuesday. You had good reasons for doing it. I don't want to bet this game just because I want Detroit to win so badly. I'd rather just pass, miss the edge on Minnesota than bet against the Lions. You mentioned sharp calls, wise guys like Detroit.
- [53:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [53:44]
Chad Millman
My feeling here is just this is a team that is impossible not to love. You get so few windows in the NFL to live up to your potential and I think the Lions have that shot right now. Very good chance. Aaron Glenn is gone next year. He's done as well as he can with third and fourth stringers and guys off the street. Likely Ben Johnson is gone. Not that they're not replaceable, but this transformation, the entire country has been behind this team, turning it around. And I just, look, I'm a sentimental guy. I'm rooting for these three coaches and this team to win the super bowl together, reach the height. Everyone can go off to their own separate ways, graduate into something else. But I want them to achieve it together. I want them to win the number one seed. I want them to rest. I want them to get their defensive players back. I don't want to bet this game because if the right side is Minnesota, I don't want to be right.
- [54:57]
Simon Hunter
And you're very nice to say that them losing their assistant, you know, coaches won't matter, but it will. Like it's, we've seen it time and time again. I mean, I lived it as an Eagles fan. Like we went and won the Super Bowl.
- [55:09]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's right.
- [55:10]
Simon Hunter
We lost our OC and our DC and we basically just went into hell.
- [55:15]
Chad Millman
Well, I don't know what year you're talking about. You won the super bowl with Nick Foles and Doug Peterson. You lost the super bowl and then lost your coordinators. I can't remember who the coordinators were when Doug Peterson was the coach.
- [55:28]
Simon Hunter
No, your. Your favorite guy is coaching the Colts, Frank.
- [55:33]
Chad Millman
No, but that's when. That's when they lost with Sirianni. You lost Gannon and Steichen.
- [55:40]
Simon Hunter
And you know, the. The silver lining, Hope, is the Eagles were the first team in NFL history to have a different whole different coaching staff and make a Super bowl between five years. So, like, it can happen. You can lose your coaching staff and get back there within five years. I mean, it's happened before, but our circle data shows us. It's like, it's. It's a big deal losing these key pieces as coaches. And, you know, not that the Lions are going to be desperate, but they have to know this. Like, it's now that I'm thinking about, though. They've drafted so well that maybe they can't combat it, but it's like, this is the year. It's all lined up. You have a really great defensive mind that, you know, you. You have no. You should have no defense. Like, it's. It's incredible what they have done, even winning all these games down the stretch here because, you know, they. They have lost so many pieces here. And you know this. You're right, Chad. It's like, I get your emotion this bet. You know, who doesn't want to see Detroit win this? Be the one seed. That's their Beth pass. But I just think at this point, to me, Minnesota is the better team. You can get three right now at bet365. And we already talked about, like, if you have, like I do, I have a bunch of futures tied to this Detroit team winning this division. You have to hedge. Like, this is such a unique, great opportunity to hedge on a Vikings team that to me, is the better team right now, and they're the dog. And you know, as much as we want to respect home field advantage there, we. We talked about this year, there is no real home field advantage. Right? Like, that's kind of gone out the door, especially when there's two teams like this that can move the ball. Like, the, the offense here is going to be the difference. And we've seen that, right? The total is the biggest total. Like Evan was saying since was it 20, 21? It's. It's insane how high this total is. So 57 and a half. You. You not want to take it and mix. Mix. I. I get it. Like, if you want to take a step back, anyone out there doesn't want to take this, but to me, you have a game that's going to be a shootout. You almost always take the points. Like unless you know, you're really committed to this Detroit team. Go Moneyline. Then like don't, don't mess around the two and a half because I, I talk all the time how I, how important I think two and a half is and you even go back and look at the first time they played. Me and Chad survived that Detroit bet, right? We, we did handicap it, right. But it was madness. There was like a strip sack touchdown at the end of the game. All of a sudden Detroit had to drive the field again and get another touchdown. Then it was just pure madness. And that's what I think this game is going to be like. You're never going to feel comfortable. I don't, I can't see this being a blowout on either side. I would be shocked if Detroit blew out the Vikings or the Vikings blow out Detroit. It would honestly be shocking. But I just think the fact that you have a team team on short rest already banged up. I mean they've just had a grueling long season here. But it gets a Minnesota team that, you know, not that they're going to be fresh in this game but like, you know, they dominated their last game against Green Bay. They basically took the foot off the gas in the fourth quarter and a little sweat there. But I just, I just think it lines up perfectly this Minnesota team. So yeah, I'm clearly, I'm pot committed. I, I love them at plus three Minnesota and you know, at two and a half if Chad doesn't put him in contest, I, I get it. Like I, I'm more confident at three, three and a half with this Minnesota team. I am at two and a half. But yeah, this is the dream scenario for the NFL. 2:14, two teams fight for the one seed. It doesn't get much better than this.
- [58:53]
Chad Millman
I'm so excited to watch this game. I, it's like I love football. I can't, I just. It's going to be a great, it's going to be a great game. All right, well, we'll, we'll review. We'll put in our picks after the show. We're going to go, we're going to want to get some numbers before they move. Even more people will be able to track that. We'll finalize them on Sunday morning. Each week we give out a two team moneyline underdog parlor bet365 boosts the odds and highlights it on their site all weekend long under both game pages. Both games are eligible for bet365's early payout promo where your Moneyline pick gets marked as a win if that team takes a 17 point lead even if they lose. So if you want to bet this, better to bet365. This week's boosted parlay, Jags and Giants. That's right. That's what we're asking. Can't imagine. Can't imagine what? The trading analyst at boot365 will boost that one, too. Find the boost under the Jags or Giants game pages on bet365 Simon, our money line underdog round robin.
- [59:59]
Simon Hunter
There will come a payday Hallelujah, what a payday There will come a payday someday Someday There will come a payday Hallelujah, what a payday There will come.
- [60:12]
Chad Millman
A payday someday I would say we want to do the Chiefs, Panthers, Giants, Jags.
- [60:22]
Simon Hunter
I remember you liked Cowboys, right? And if you want to take the Cowboys out and go with Minnesota, I support it.
- [60:29]
Chad Millman
All right, I can do that because I know how much you love Minnesota. I hate, like, when you're so locked in and I'm clearly being emotional about it.
- [60:36]
Simon Hunter
I'm locked in, but I'm scared. I think anyone's scared betting against this Detroit team. I mean, man, Campbell just dominates in this exact scenario. What is. What is he having? Is he 70 in night games with golf against the spread?
- [60:48]
C
I think it's something like that. Or it's against the Vikings, too. Golf hasn't lost against the spread against a bike.
- [60:52]
Simon Hunter
It's not good, Chad. It's every trend I read from Evan. I was like, God damn it. But I can't help myself.
- [60:57]
Chad Millman
I. Forget it then. Let's go with the underlaw. The underdog round robin is going to be Kansas City. Jags, Giants, Cowboys. Oh, Carolina. Carolina. Jags, Cowboys. Giants. Carolina. Jags, Cowboys, Giants, Kansas City. All right. Jesus.
- [61:21]
Simon Hunter
That was Scooter. Let's Scooter.
- [61:23]
Chad Millman
Well, we got to do your biggest best then. I want to do Scooter.
- [61:25]
Simon Hunter
Let biggest bet so far. I mean, I hit. I hit the Cincinnati one early. I've not bet in much sense. That definitely is one of my bigger bets. Jaguars, Giants, probably gonna end up with Minnesota's one of my bigger bets if. Especially if it stays at three. So, yeah, I would say those three really jump out for Sunday.
- [61:44]
Chad Millman
Wow, that's truly disgusting. That's gonna be it. You're gonna have terrible.
- [61:48]
Simon Hunter
I mean, I didn't mention Tennessee because I just know no one's gonna follow that one. But, yeah, I'm heavy on Tennessee as well.
- [61:52]
Chad Millman
Oh my God, you're going to have such an excruciating Sunday. If you were drinking last Sunday, forget about this Sunday. When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.
- [62:04]
Simon Hunter
Let's play Scooch Roulette.
- [62:08]
Chad Millman
Scoot roulette. Last week you were on Minnesota, I was on Green Bay. Our first head to head of the year. Very upsetting for me. Who would you like to pick in Scoot Roulette?
- [62:17]
Simon Hunter
I mean, do you want to double down and take Detroit and I take Minnesota or are you just scared off now?
- [62:22]
Chad Millman
No, I'll do it.
- [62:23]
Simon Hunter
You will?
- [62:24]
Chad Millman
Yeah, why not?
- [62:24]
Simon Hunter
You're a sick dog. Yeah. Give me Minnesota then. What number are you getting? You get two and a half, I get plus three.
- [62:29]
Chad Millman
Sure.
- [62:30]
Simon Hunter
All right.
- [62:31]
Chad Millman
I like that. I like that one now. It gives me like a reason to be invested without actually having to be invested as a contest pick before we get to Evan Abrams, if you are participating. No, this is not accurate. This should have come out. We're all good. Everything's good. Let's get to Evan Abrams. Before we get out of here, our director of research. You can get the final word, make us feel good about something.
- [62:58]
Simon Hunter
The last word with Evan Abrams.
- [63:01]
Chad Millman
We're finished talking.
- [63:03]
C
Well, yeah, I mean if we're betting the Giants, Titans and Jaguars, I'm not sure how much I can help there. But I will give you a few pieces of fun information here. The one thing you guys did say about Carson Wentz, which I looked up, so ten and a half would actually be his largest spread in any game played, 93 starts. He did it against Lamar in 22. So yeah, even a big number for him in his heyday and his post days. And the interesting thing on Sunday Night football. So Vikings 14 wins. Win total was six and a half. If they get one more win at 15, this would be the most over expectations any team has ever finished in the since realignment in 2002. So Vikings had a six and a half win total in the.
- [63:43]
Simon Hunter
Wow.
- [63:44]
C
Which is insane. But I'll give you two trends. Since it is week 18, we kind of have a lot of this information on teams to bet and fade at the end of the year. So historically it's been profitable to fade teams who need to win at the end of the regular season. It's a great note from Stuckey that we've been updating year to year. So since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season, 60% against the spread now for week 18, that is the Saints getting about 14 in the Bucks, the Panthers getting 8 or 9 in Atlanta, and the jets at about 11 1/2 or 2 against the Dolphins. All three of those other teams need to win. And then here's an even broader one which I found in bet labs, which I found was interesting. So in addition, teams with a win percentage between 40% and 60% week 16 or later, 27 and 72 against the spread 27% when they are against opponents with an 8 to 25% worse win percentage. So basically in those last two to three weeks of the regular season, you want to be betting these bad teams against good teams. They're failing to cover the spread by 3.8 points per game this week. That is the Colts against the Jaguars, the Dolphins against those jets, the Falcons against those Panthers, and the Bucks against the Saints. Same type of game, same type of system. But this is just year in and year out. These teams like the Colts last week against the Giants kind of find themselves not coming through when people expect them to. And then I'll end here. We talked a lot about the Titans, so yes, Chad, to answer your question from earlier 2 and 14 ATS, they're just the only team ever to lose 14 games against a spread in a season. So that will continue no matter what. But the funny thing is this. So they were favored actually last week they closed at minus one with some late action. So they're about to close as favorites in back to back weeks. And I found this one so ending the year bad. Only a few teams have had a 4/plus game ATS losing streak and an ATS 1 percentage of 25% or worse in week 17 or later. Which is exactly what you're getting with the Titans. The only two teams before that were the Bucks in 22 who actually beat the Panthers and famously in 2021 the Jaguars who upset the Colts and kept them out of the playoffs. The other funny thing is it's actually also the Browns this week. The Browns are. I don't know if I didn't even realize this till I look it up. The Browns are 4 and 12 against the spread this year. They failed spread in four or five straight games entering this one. So they're pretty much on an the same course as Tennessee. They've been really bad, kind of unexpectedly starting DTR these last few weeks. And then I'll leave you with this. So Simon mentioned it with Dable, but I found this interesting. Best coaches against the spread week 17 and 18 in our BET Labs database since 2003 Tomlin 147 again ATS Dan Campbell 7 and 1 and again Brian Dable at 5 0. The other good ones were McDermott and Peterson who I know you guys are on a few of those coaches and teams this week, so maybe that'll turn out on the positive side.
- [66:53]
Chad Millman
Feel great. You know what I feel like Simon? Feel like we're going to live up to our potential in week 18. Do you feel that way too?
- [67:04]
Simon Hunter
Always good.
- [67:05]
Chad Millman
I'm glad of that. We are like minds As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spread, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A bet 3, 6, 5 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or 1, 800, bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night, 7:30pm Eastern. To recap NFL Week 18 and look ahead to the playoffs. Got some wild card lines that'll be out by then. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, Subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback as a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.