Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd - "The Favorites: NFL Best Bets Week 18"

Release Date: January 2, 2025
Hosted by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

1. Introduction

In the "Favorites: NFL Best Bets Week 18" episode, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve into their top NFL betting picks for the final week of the regular season. They analyze team performances, discuss betting strategies, and share insights on line movements, aiming to provide listeners with informed opinions to guide their wagers.

2. Overview of NFL Week 18

Chad and Simon kick off the discussion by highlighting the significance of Week 18 as the concluding chapter of the regular NFL season. They emphasize the importance of making strategic bets as the playoffs approach, noting that betting lines are influenced by player performances and coaching decisions throughout the week.

3. Team Analyses and Betting Picks

a. Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• Chad's Perspective: Chad expresses strong support for the Chargers, appreciating their coaching and quarterback performance. He remarks, "Jim Harbaugh is my New Year's resolution spirit animal," highlighting his admiration for the Chargers' coaching philosophy.
  [44:11]

• Simon's View: Simon concurs, emphasizing Herbert's confidence and the Chargers' ability to dominate weaker teams. He states, "I love this Chargers team... they're gonna go out there, try to whoop on this division foe."
  [42:05]

Pick: Chargers are favored due to their strategic gameplay and motivated coaching staff.

b. New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

• Discussion Points:

  • The uncertainty surrounding Patriots' quarterback Garrett Mayo versus Mike Vrabel.
  • The potential impact of Mayo's performance on the Patriots' future.

• Notable Quote: Simon muses, "I should have listened to Chad, should have made Simon say the Giants..." reflecting on earlier betting decisions.
  [08:47]

Pick: Chad and Simon lean towards betting on the Bills, albeit with caution due to Patriots' coaching inconsistencies.

c. Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans

• Analysis:

  • The Titans' poor ATS (Against the Spread) record at 2-14.
  • The Texans' strategy of resting key starters, diminishing their competitiveness.

• Notable Quote: Chad emphasizes the Titans' consistent underperformance: "They are our Simon says. And now we got word that the wise guys are all over the Titans."
  [11:01]

Pick: Tennessee Titans are favored despite their poor record, as bettors expect them to perform better than perceived.

d. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

• Insights:

  • The Jaguars are viewed as a resilient team capable of upsets.
  • Concerns over the Colts' coaching and quarterback stability.

• Notable Quote: Simon highlights the Jaguars' knack for close games: "Jags have been keeping games close... So I'd like to pass on the Colts."
  [16:39]

Pick: Jaguars are favored over the Colts, given their strong performance against difficult opponents.

e. Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

• Discussion Points:

  • The Commanders' defensive struggles and inconsistent quarterback play.
  • The Cowboys' decline in recent games and potential overvaluation.

• Notable Quote: Chad criticizes the Commanders' defense: "The commander's defense is terrible."
  [26:34]

Pick: Dallas Cowboys are favored, though confidence is tempered by their fluctuating performance.

f. Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• Analysis:

  • The Panthers' strong running game led by Robinson.
  • The Falcons' inconsiderate defense, particularly in stopping the run.

• Notable Quote: Simon underscores the Panthers' rushing prowess: "Robinson has been dominant... Panthers cannot stop the run."
  [29:45]

Pick: Carolina Panthers are favored with an 8-point spread, driven by their offensive strength.

g. Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

• Insights:

  • The Bears' prolonged struggles and absence of winning road games since 2021.
  • The Packers' consistency and dominance within the division.

• Notable Quote: Chad laments the Bears' home-field atmosphere: "They ruined the stadium... it's not as loud as it used to be."
  [33:54]

Pick: Packers are heavily favored over the struggling Bears, with Bears' lack of motivation cited as a key factor.

h. New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• Analysis:

  • The Eagles resting key starters, reducing their competitiveness.
  • The Giants' opportunity to secure draft picks and build momentum.

• Notable Quote: Simon comments on the Eagles' lineup: "They're going to be sitting almost all their starters."
  [35:38]

Pick: Giants are favored to take advantage of the Eagles' weakened roster.

i. Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

• Insights:

  • Seahawks' motivation under new coaching, aiming to build momentum.
  • Rams likely fielding their younger, less experienced players.

• Notable Quote: Chad reflects on coaching strategies: "We're finding the edge... they're playing to win the week."
  [46:41]

Pick: Seahawks are favored due to their driven coaching and strategic gameplay.

j. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

• Discussion Points:

  • Chiefs' strategic offensive mind and Patrick Mahomes' leadership.
  • Broncos' reliance on rookie quarterback and less experienced roster.

• Notable Quote: Simon underscores Mahomes' prowess: "You can't duplicate how he's so confident, great in the pocket."
  [50:46]

Pick: Chiefs are heavily favored, with their seasoned quarterback and offensive strategy outmatching the Broncos.

4. Notable Quotes

• Chad Millman:

  • "Jim Harbaugh is my New Year's resolution spirit animal."
    [44:11]
  • "The commander's defense is terrible."
    [26:34]

• Simon Hunter:

  • "I love this Chargers team... they're gonna go out there, try to whoop on this division foe."
    [42:05]
  • "Jiags have been keeping games close... So I'd like to pass on the Colts."
    [16:39]

5. Betting Strategies and Insights

Chad and Simon emphasize the importance of understanding line movements and the motivations behind team performances. They advocate for:

• Research-Driven Betting: Analyzing coaching decisions, player performances, and team morale.
• Against the Spread (ATS) Awareness: Recognizing teams with poor ATS records as potential underdogs with hidden strengths.
• Momentum Betting: Capitalizing on teams entering games with high motivation, such as playoff implications or trying to salvage draft positions.
• Risk Management: Advising cautious betting on overvalued favorites and leaning towards undervalued underdogs with strong underlying factors.

6. Conclusion

The episode wraps up with Chad and Simon reiterating their top picks for Week 18, encouraging listeners to consider their analyses when placing bets. They highlight the dynamic nature of the final week, where strategic insights can lead to profitable outcomes. The hosts express confidence in their selections, aiming to help listeners "live up to their fullest potential" in their betting endeavors.

Note: Quotations include timestamp references to provide context and authenticity to the discussions.