The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Wild Card Weekend

Summary

The Herd with Colin Cowherd: The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Wild Card Weekend Release Date: January 9, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman (Action Network) and Simon Hunter
Presented by: bet365

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Introduction

In this episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive deep into their NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets, providing insightful analyses and unique perspectives on the top playoff matchups. Breaking from their usual format, they not only discuss favored side bets but also introduce additional recommendations based on the latest trends and listener feedback.

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Chargers vs. Texans: A Bold Stand on the Side

Chad and Simon take a contrarian stance against the majority of professionals and the public favoring the Houston Texans. Instead, they confidently back the Los Angeles Chargers to cover a -2.5 point spread.

• Simon Hunter:
  "We are going with a bet that we think is smart and we think we're getting a great number, especially at minus two and a half." ([05:13])

• Analysis:
  The hosts highlight the Chargers' robust defense and quarterback Justin Herbert’s consistent performance. Despite the Texans’ statistical weaknesses—31st in EPA per pass and second-most pressured dropbacks—the Chargers' ability to limit mistakes and sustain drives makes them formidable.

• Chad Millman:
  "The things that the Chargers are good at are the things that the Texans have struggled with." ([10:31])

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Steelers vs. Ravens: Challenging the Consensus

While professionals lean towards favoring the Baltimore Ravens, Chad and Simon remain skeptical, citing concerns over quarterback Lamar Jackson's playoff performance.

• Simon Hunter:
  "Lamar is one of the few guys that just has not lived up to the hype and performance of the regular season in the playoffs." ([22:00])

• Key Points:
  They discuss Jackson’s struggles in clutch playoff moments and the Steelers’ improved defense compared to last season. Additionally, uncertainties around Ravens' wide receiver Zay Flowers add another layer of complexity to the bet.

• Chad Millman:
  "If the Ravens do what they're supposed to do in the first half, I think then he [Jackson] will be in a good position." ([26:06])

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Bills vs. Broncos: Balancing Confidence and Risk

The Bills are favored by professionals, but Chad and Simon offer a nuanced take. They prefer a +10 point spread for the Bills instead of taking the moneyline, emphasizing the Broncos' defensive capabilities against Josh Allen.

• Simon Hunter:
  "I'm heavily invested in this one." ([41:03])

• Discussion:
  They analyze Allen’s potential to dominate or falter under pressure, considering the Broncos’ ability to disrupt his rhythm. The hosts weigh historical performances and current season dynamics to justify their preference for the spread over the outright win.

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Eagles vs. Packers: Underdog Potential and Defensive Prowess

Chad and Simon express strong support for the Philadelphia Eagles, emphasizing their dominant defense and questioning the Packers' ability to overcome them, especially in the first half.

• Simon Hunter:
  "The Eagles have the defense; I think me and Chad, and like everyone else, our biggest question mark right now is, is Jalen Hurts going to show up in this game?" ([45:38])

• Insights:
  They delve into Jalen Hurts’ health and recent performances, alongside the Packers' offensive challenges. The hosts suggest that Packers may struggle to establish momentum early, giving the Eagles an edge.

• Chad Millman:
  "We are in the foxhole on this one." ([45:38])

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Buccaneers vs. Commanders: Veteran Strategy Over Rookie Hype

The Buccaneers are favored against the Washington Commanders, with Chad and Simon advocating for a -3 point spread. They argue that the Commanders’ rookie quarterback may not withstand Tampa Bay’s seasoned defense.

• Simon Hunter:
  "The Bucks can't have this be a shootout." ([53:30])

• Analysis:
  Emphasizing the Buccaneers’ run-heavy game plan and strong defensive schemes, the hosts believe that veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield will control the game tempo, minimizing turnovers and explosive plays from the Commanders.

• Chad Millman:
  "Baker can't help himself to turn over. You just can't have those stupid turnovers in the playoffs." ([58:15])

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Rams vs. Vikings: Value in the Underdog

Despite the Rams being slight favorites, Chad and Simon find value in betting them as underdogs, citing Matthew Stafford’s declining offensive performance and poor matchup against the Vikings’ defense.

• Simon Hunter:
  "This is a game where me and you could get burned." ([66:05])

• Discussion:
  They explore Stafford’s recent struggles and the Vikings’ defensive strengths, suggesting that the Rams may not capitalize on their offense as effectively as expected. The under is also considered a strong play given both teams’ tendencies.

• Chad Millman:
  "We don't like to bet against Matthew Stafford and we're getting him at a Dog at home." ([62:01])

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Contest Segment: Celebrating Daniel Winzenberg

A highlight of the episode is the recognition of Daniel Winzenberg from North Dakota, who won the $40,000 first-place prize in the Favorites Pro Football Pick contest. Daniel shares his journey and success, attributing his triumph to consistent listening and strategic betting, even while managing his farming duties.

• Simon Hunter:
  "You are the hero of the favorites contest. Congratulations." ([38:56])

• Daniel Winzenberg:
  "My whole point of just breaking down is that he's been choking, brother." ([36:03])

• Chad Millman:
  "Those cows live a happy long life just chewing on grass and whatever else cows eat and make them warm and comfortable out there in North Dakota." ([38:56])

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Closing Thoughts

Chad and Simon wrap up the episode by reiterating their key bets for the Wild Card Weekend, emphasizing the Chargers, Bucks, Bills, and Rams as their top picks. They also encourage listeners to engage with their content and place bets responsibly, thanks to their partnership with bet365.

• Chad Millman:
  "We are dead on with our love of the Bucks and the Rams on the other games." ([16:01])

• Simon Hunter:
  "This is a great number with Pittsburgh and everything like that, and my model backs it up." ([28:43])

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Simon Hunter:
  "We are going with a bet that we think is smart and we think we're getting a great number, especially at minus two and a half." ([05:13])

• Chad Millman:
  "The things that the Chargers are good at are the things that the Texans have struggled with." ([10:31])

• Simon Hunter:
  "Lamar is one of the few guys that just has not lived up to the hype and performance of the regular season in the playoffs." ([22:00])

• Simon Hunter:
  "This is a great number with Pittsburgh and everything like that, and my model backs it up." ([28:43])

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Conclusion

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide a comprehensive and analytical approach to betting on NFL Wild Card Weekend, challenging conventional wisdom and offering strategic insights. Their detailed breakdown of each matchup, backed by statistics and personal expertise, equips listeners with valuable information to make informed betting decisions.

For more detailed discussions and future episodes, listeners are encouraged to tune into The Herd with Colin Cowherd on iHeartPodcasts and The Volume.

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Disclaimer: Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly. bet365 is only available to individuals aged 21 or older in certain states.

Transcript

[Adnan Virk]

What's up everybody? Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.

[Jason Demers]

Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.

[Adnan Virk]

Hey, I got a lot to say here too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.

[Jason Demers]

Tons of guests are going to join in too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le table.

[Adnan Virk]

Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John home studio and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Hello, Chad. How we doing, dude?

[Chad Millman]

Today is our NFL wild card Best Bets episode. We're going to do something a little bit different with today's show. Normally we only look at sides for each game. Those are the most popular bets and we do the contests that are tied to them. But there are fewer games. Our opinions on the sides we like haven't changed that much since Tuesday. We've gotten some new intel then lines are moving. So I think we're we're feeling more strongly about some games, but we're adding any other best that we like as well, which a couple people have emailed me about. If we could add that. Hopefully that will give folks more to look for, more to root for, more to think about. For this weekend we will of course get into the foxhole. We'll give out our Tommy John big balls bet of the week. We'll discuss your biggest bets. We'll do our boosted Moneyline underdog parlay, so on and so on. Later on in the show today, Simon and I did have a chat. This was fantastic and I encourage everyone to listen with Daniel Winsoberg, the pride of North Dakota, Bow Bells, North Dakota, population 300 and he lives outside of Belle Bells. He's the winner of our $40,000 first place prize in the Favorites Pro Football Pick him contest. An absolute pleasure with a kicker. Surprise ending that could have Simon and I end up being the most popular names in all of Bow Bell's North Dakota. So Please listen for that. It's he's great and he deserves the attention. Bets are rolling in. Lines are moving. Decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast boss Colin Cowherd likes to say, there's a sea of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code FAVORITES, deposit $50, deposit $10 and place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never Ordinary. At BET365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms, conditions restrictions apply. All right, as always on Thursdays, we like to hear how the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. I especially like to hear how they're responding to me and our Tuesday conversation. But whatever the case is, they feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Let's do sharp calls. Hello, who's there?

[Adnan Virk]

I'm talking rain rain telephone ring Somebody.

[Simon Hunter]

Said baby, what you do yeah. It's a week of some disagreement. Chad. I think we already knew that coming into this. We loved the Chargers. Let's start with that one. We are firmly with Joe Public on that one. Basically any pro I've talked to for the most part is on the other side. And I kind of knew they're going to be because all the trends kind of favorite the Houston side. But I thought it would be more people basing off their models and just, you know, what they've watched. And I think they're just going to play the statistical numbers and the, you know, the fact that the percentages say if you long term you bet Houston is exact spot, that's a winner long term. But me and Chad ain't here to do that. Me and Chad are going with a bet that we think is smart and we think we're getting a great number, especially at minus two and a half. So that feels like the biggest sharp trap of the week. It feels like they're walking into one and that everyone just pretty much pat patting each other on the ass and saying how smart each each other are on Houston and you know, could they cover it? Sure. Houston's been a team that's played close Games all season. I, I don't fault them for taking the three but I just don't understand the logic not taking the two and a half on the Chargers. To me that's, that's the we will not be bullied.

[Chad Millman]

Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

No. No. So I'm excited to break that one down even more because I do have opinion on that total next game. Shockingly Chad, the, the pros I've talked do like the Ravens which I am shocked by. I thought it would be Pittsburgh heavy. It's not as it obviously there are pros like me who just are taking that 10. Like how do you not take that plus 10 that was such a great number. Still feels like a gift even Beth360 holding at 10 at their book. But when you talk to a lot of these bookmakers it's like the amount of money they have on the the Ravens adding in professional money that's come in on the Ravens especially early like the Ravens open seven and a half like that was basically all, all the money they got early was just professional money and pretty interesting hearing guys though still willing to take the Ravens at -9 and a half and I just, I don't know it feels like I'm taking crazy pills here and I get where they're coming from. Right. Tomlin hasn't won a playoff game since whatever it is 2017, 2018. I understand that but I just can't, I can't believe these guys are this confident taking a double digit favorite in a and against a divisional foe who's they've struggled against. So again that's another game we're going to go through. You were on the professional side in this Bill is one I, I thought more pros were on Denver. It's, it's split for sure but it's more pros I've talked to do like this Bill side and it is going back to what you know, we talked about with Evan or I guess we haven't yet but just basically these quarterbacks making their first start. It's, it's a real thing. We, we have the numbers that back it up like it's just different. The playoffs are simply just different. And now you factor in that this is a rookie making their first start. And yeah we had a little run there where you know Brock Purdy won his first start. CJ Last year. Right. Joe Flack on the Browns won his first start. So we haven't had a little come back the other way. That makes me even more confident in this going the other way because we are due for more of these first time quarterbacks to get losses here. So that was when I jumped out. I did not think pros would be on the Bills, but they, they love the Bills. We are on the public side, Chad. I think you already knew that. Our, our Eagles love is heavily public. You know, think I, you know, talk to a handful of guys that had bet the Eagles but none of it with confidence. Everyone I've talked to thinks this is a trap game for this Eagles team and that, you know, too many people are discounting and counting out this Green Bay team that I think you touched on a little bit, Chad, with Leflore, they're just such a well coached team and he performs so well as an underdog. This is a really a Leflore spot. Like in this exact scenario he tends to cover these numbers. So, you know, doesn't make me feel great. I got this at a -6 number and I had a couple guys being like, you're way off. That's a bad number. You should have trusted your original number of four. And I just, I push back on that. I just think this Eagles team is just so good across the board and they're fully healthy. Even watching Jalen hurts in that practice the other day, it's like, you know, you would never know he was coming off two weeks of a concussion not working out. Like he just looks fully informed, ready to go. So I'm, I'm excited to break that one down, see if you're, if your confidence wave of it all. Like, you know, I still love the Eagles but I'm probably going to invest a little bit more in Green Bay first quarter. Green Bay first half. So that'll be my, a little bit of a hedge where I trust Eagles to really roll them in the second half. But I agree with the professionals that they think the Eagles might come out slow, a little sloppy against a Green Bay team that is going to be prepared and ready to play in this game. You know, here's a game that we love. The professionals love Washington, Tampa Bay. We love Tampa. The pros love Tampa. Public loves, commanders. We already know that. So that I don't even need to dive into that too much. We'll break that down. We go through the games. Last one. Not a shocker at all. I mean this another side, we love Rams. The public loves, loves, loves Minnesota. I haven't talked to a single pro yet that has taken the Vikings side and you know, a couple guys I talked to haven't bet this. Their view is I can wait and Maybe this number will flip and I can get this Vikings team as a dog and that's the position I want to be on. And I joke with them. I'm on the. I'm on the complete same mindset from the other side where it's like I've been betting the one and a half on this ramp scene, but I've really been loading up on teasers with them. Like, this is my favorite teaser team, them and the Bills. I know it's sacrilege to tease through zero long teasers, but I kind of don't really respect long teasers, especially when it comes to playoff time. I feel like it's a little outdated. I've been teasing the Chargers through zero up to three and a half. So I have a couple them at three and a half, Rams up to seven and a half. I just love this number. And you know, that's a game where yes, we know what's happened in California. Me and Chad, we think of all these people and all these guys, families who are being affected by these fires. And could that be a major issue for a lot of these Rams players who do have stuff going on outside the field and they have major distractions, of course. But me and Chad, we can't handicap that. Like, we're just going off the numbers here. So yeah, for the most part, Chad, we're dead on with our love of the Bucks and the Rams on the other games. It all sounds pretty split up between the professionals. So it's, it's an interesting week for sure.

[Chad Millman]

I. Well, let's get into it. Let's start with that Chargers game right now. The number of bet365 is chargers minus three. The total is 42 and a half. There is a two and a half out there. It is available. I've hit the two and a half a couple times. I know, Simon, you've probably hit it more. This was my exact decision stats that I didn't mention on Tuesday. And again, I know you know the wise guys, they have been leaning into the Texans. If you listen to Stuckey and Raybon on the Action Network podcast, they freaking love the Texans this weekend. Stroud finished 30. C.J. stroud finished 31st in EPA and completion percentage over expectation. Okay. The Texans finished 31st in early down success rate ahead of just the Browns. We talked about the O line. CJ Stroud pressured 28% of his drop backs. That was second most in the league. And one of the reasons a lot of the analysts all season long. Have you read anybody who's breaking down CJ Stroud's troubles they were talking about. His Achilles heel this year has been against defenses running too high, safety schemes. Chargers do list nearly 60% of the time and Shroud's YPA against this is 28th and his QB rating is 31st. So I still feel good about it. I am not expecting some kind of miraculous recovery that all of a sudden this team is going to be different than it was all throughout the season. Normally in the playoffs when teams lose, they lose because of the same things they did all season long, right? Isn't that always what happens? Like you watch a playoff game and the things that had been bugaboos for teams throughout the year are the reasons why they can't convert, can't get over the top in the playoffs. The things that the Chargers are good at are the things that the Texans have struggled with. I don't get the love Simon. I don't get the wise guy love for the Texans here at all.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, again, a bunch of different things that I think they look into, especially if you're looking at the trends, is this is the, you know, another tough road game, a tough spot for this Chargers team. And historically when teams have played a bunch of road games in a row, right. Doesn't work out for them, right. Heading to the playoffs, we've kind of seen it that, you know, Evan had amazing stats since 2003 teams that are on their third road games or later on any road trip, they're 45 and 71 straight up. So 39% and these teams are 5 and 12 straight up over the last three seasons, this exact spot. So that's kind of the logic, right, that they're like, you know what I.

[Chad Millman]

Would like to know? I'd like to know maybe Evan, you can figure this out and we can talk about it at the show. Teams that are on the third road game as a favorite, I don't know what the sample size of this is going to be for Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick, the coaches who I think are real difference makers. You know, you can throw in some John Harbaugh, other coaches who in these past 20 years have been real factors when it comes to power rating these teams. And I think this year it matters more than ever. And I just think that's going to put them in a better position to accumulate points in the exact spot where.

[Simon Hunter]

They need to and just to close it out. And basically a team like the Chargers playing this exact spot. So three straight row games into the playoffs, they're 11 and 27 straight up. So they only went 29 of the time. So that's what I said on Tuesday. I was fine with me chad betting that 30%. Like, again, it happens obviously, that one out of three times. So we're basically banking on that here, making this bet for the most part. But it really is all about kind of what you just touched on there. It's about this Chargers team. They're coaching, Herbert himself. Like, I just have a ton of confidence guy, especially as a favorite on the road. Like, he's been really good to us as a favorite on the road, and usually when the books price him that way, it tends to go our way. And, you know, he's seven and one against the spread in this exact spot his last eight. So it's like he clearly has done really well in this exact scenario, being on the road as a favorite. And, you know, it's interesting talking to pros, just why they're so confident in this Texan thing. When you do push them, Chad, and you try to get them to really break it down, it feels like they're betting on a Texas team that doesn't exist anymore. Like, I was just.

[Chad Millman]

Those are the exact words when you were saying they're betting on the Texas teams. I was. In my head, I'm saying that doesn't exist. It's not the Texans team that they think they're betting and I team. What they're really good at on defense is pressuring the quarterback. The Chargers have two of the best tackles in the NFL and Joe Alton, Rashawn Slater. So the one thing that they're great at, and their secondary is so banged up, they're down to third stringers across the board. When you're talking about cornerbacks, like, well, not Stingley, obviously, but in other positions, they can stop the pressure because their defense, their tackles are so good.

[Simon Hunter]

And I do see a word where they can cover this number just because. Yes, if the moment's too big for Herbert and Houston's defense, who has played really well all season, we know how great of a coach D'Amico Ryan's is and how he just gets his defense fired up and ready to play in almost every game. That is their formula, right? Somehow keep this game ugly and close. But we've seen it. The Chargers team, they just don't play that. They don't. They're never the ones that make the mistakes. And if you want to play ugly, they're happy to play it ugly. Like they. They are more than happy to do that. But we've seen them kind of transition the second half of the season where, you know, Herbert's just gotten so much more comfortable with these wide receivers and his receivers. You know, we can knock them for their drops. They have gotten better as the season's gone long here and his connection with lad McConkey has grown as well. So it's like it feels like these are two different teams that I don't think the professors have given enough credit to this Chargers team, how they've improved and discrediting this Houston team that have lost so many key pieces to this team. So, yeah, well, me and Chad be killing ourselves that this lanes on two if the Chargers win. But it's by two and we've been choking all season how important two and a half is. Yes, that's going to hurt, but I have to trust the number here and think me, me and you are getting a really good number. And if you're like me and you're kind of feeling like a little bit of a coward with this one just because the pros are so heavy on Houston, tease it through zero. Like if you're getting Chargers three and a half, there's no scenario. No scenario. I see Houston winning by more than three if they do win this. Like that to me is by far the safest bet. But you like to be a risk taker, which mean, Chad, are. I don't know how you don't take this Chargers number here. And you know, obviously I keep talking about this defense here. I love the under as well. Like, this is to me, another play on this game where it's like, that's way too high of a total. I got it at 41. It was 43 and a half. It's been bet down to 42 and a half. Still. That's a key number. You're still getting great value on this number. So this is. There's a couple games I like the under in. This is towards the top of my list. I really love this under.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I was going to say I think Eileen when I want to talk about the total. So Eileen that way as well. I think it'll be conservative. I think they're going to try to limit their own mistakes, potentially forcing some.

[Simon Hunter]

From Stroud and we'll know dead and playoffs are weird. We'll be dead in a minute. Chad, if this goes over, like, if it's 20 to 14 the first half, the writing's on the wall, we're dead. But that's. That's my view of this where it's like I can just see one offense or one of these teams showing up the other other offense just not be able to get it going because like we said, these are two defenses that do know how to scheme it up and play well against teams. So yeah, I do. I do love this total.

[Chad Millman]

Pittsburgh is a nine point underdog right now at bet365 against the no. Nine and a half. I'm sorry against the Ravens the total 43 and a half. This was Simon says when it was at 10. It has moved to nine and a half. It's at 10 in some other places. It was 10 at bed365 this morning and now it's back down. So we we do not officially know the status of Zay Flowers. He did not practice earlier this week. Ian Rapaport of NFL Network has reported that he has a long shot to play. Like we talked on Tuesday, we were going to run through some of the trends for the Steelers and it does worry me how well teams that are double digit faves have performed in the wild card round. But this, this is not the same Steelers team I think that lost 3417 to the Steelers that lost 3417 to the Ravens a few weeks ago. Reminder under Tomlin Steelers are 6 and 1 as a dog of more than three points versus the Ravens. That one loss was on the 21st of December over the last 20 years. Underdog in the series 74% underdog 163 and 1 since 2015. Tomlin 2116 straight up 19153 against a spread versus John Harbaugh as a dog 133 and 2 now you tell me how much you hate playing Lamar in the playoffs because you do. But I just think the Steelers defense is better than it was when they played on the 21st. They were missing a lot of guys in the secondary. We talked about Joey Porter going out of the middle of that game. That's when the tide started to turn and they really needed to be perfect on offense and they weren't. So I'm still good with the Steelers here at 10. Obviously would rather have the 10 than 9 and a half. I'm surprised the wise guys are so confident about the Ravens.

[Simon Hunter]

I think their confidence stems from the struggle of Russell Wilson down the stretch. And even that game you're talking about, if you go back to it, it's a 77 game and they are driving the field. Pittsburgh, they're into the red zone. Russell Wilson runs with the ball.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And instead of sliding he tries to get that extra one or two Yards gets popped and fumbles. That to me would flip that whole game like that gave all the momentum back to the Ravens. And then we know the issue, right? They got two more injuries on the defense you just talked about. Joey Porter Jr. Went out in that game. All of a sudden it was just rolling like Lamar was into his own. That's the key for Lamar. If he gets into his zone, into our rhythm, we're probably going to be cooked here, brother. Like this guy is the two time mvp. Might be three time.

[Chad Millman]

Like, you know, should be three time.

[Simon Hunter]

Wow. Really? You're one of those.

[Chad Millman]

Oh my God, totally. If you, if you, if you took the names off the list and did not know Lamar Jackson had won the past two and you looked at the numbers, it's not even comparable. It really isn't. He was such a good quarterback this year. So much better statistically than Josh Allen in so many ways. It's not even, it, it shouldn't even be a conversation. It really shouldn't.

[Simon Hunter]

That's fair. Maybe it's kind of like Leo getting his Oscar, right? I think that's how I feel with Josh Allen. It's like he has earned the right to get this MVP in my view, because of what he's done over his career in this, this amount of time. And I agree with you, Lamar. Incredible season, everything like that. But I am, I'm, I'm one of those people. I'm kind of dug in on Josh and I think he deserves it for the season he put together just because it's all about expectations, right? And I, I, I, I look back at the start of the year and I just, I'm just blown away what Josh Allen accomplished with this team that we thought had nothing left. We're on the flip side of Lamar. Not that I'm saying I expected it, but come on, man. The dude had. You got Derrick Henry. That was a huge upgrade to this guy who was already MVP before getting the second, third best running back of football. But yeah, for this game specifically, you know, we know the stats about Lamar, right? Lamar, me and Chad have talked ad nauseam about this guy. He is probably my favorite quarterback to bet on in the regular season. He just is a cash cow. He is so good to me and Chad and we kind of have a rhythm with him. We know at this number, you take them when it's under three, right? You take them when it's above three. Either fade or you just stay away. And you know, we can't avoid the numbers that are out there for the Playoffs. I know the fans get upset about, they're like, you can't keep judging, right? Eventually, pton, Pton Manning got over the hump. I agree. He eventually will get over the hump. I just, I'm not going to be betting on it. Like, he burned me so hard last year where it was lined up perfectly for him and his team and he, he couldn't do it. And like he turned back into old Lamar and you know, in the regular season, Lamar 20 and five straight up in night games. Incredible. 20 and five straight up in night games. He plays like that's an insane stat that he's 80% in the playoffs. He's 0 and 2 in night games. And you'd be like, well, it's, it's individual games. Okay, he lost the bills on the road 173 and then he lost at home 2812 against that Titans team. And that is if you go through the day like you said, Chad, double digit favorites have performed really well. 17 one straight up, that one loss is that Titans game. So to me there is something with this Lamar stuff where it's like you can't overrate his struggles in the playoffs. I know people want to keep brushing it by, but it's like if you look at the list of two time MVPs, just about all of them have super bowl rings. He's one of the few guys that, you know, just has not lived up to the hype and performance of the regular season in the playoffs. So to me, this is the worst matchup he possibly could have got. He's going against a divisional foe that has his number, that plays really well against him. And I am very dug in on this. Like, I just love this Pittsburgh team now. The only reason I'm not hammering people being like, you have to take Pittsburgh's money line, you got to do it, is just because of Tomlin's struggle in the playoffs. Like his team just has not been winning these playoff games. And that is, you know, you can say, well, he hasn't had the quarterbacks and everything like that. I, I do agree with that. But some of it is on Tomlin. Like he's just not had great decisions at the end of these playoff games. And you know, I'm going to be betting it, but it's not going to be me and Chad's money line around Robin. Right. We're not that crazy at this point. So, or I should say our, our parlay, we give out. So I do love it. I'm betting their money line. But to me the, the smart safe bet here is taking the plus 10. If you can still get it on the Pittsburgh team. I just think that's way too much value on a game that's going to be close. And Chad, we know the deal here. If we get one or two of those magical Pittsburgh bounces which we've lived off of, they could upset and win this game. Like if the momentum flips to them, Lamar is going to feel all that weight on him. And that to me is something that is kind of the human element of it, something that I can't put into my model and we really can't put a number to it. But that's a real thing. Like if it's midway through the third quarter and Lamar has zero touchdowns and a pick and he's down by say three or four points, he's going to be pressing. Like there's no way he's not going to be pressing and try to push the ball downfield. Amber ask, you just said it from the top of the show. Zay Flowers has missed two practices in a row at this point and he's a long shot to playing this game. That's another thing that's not being talked about enough. So yeah, I'm, I think you clearly can tell I am heavily invested. I really like the Spitzberg number.

[Chad Millman]

I'm on the number two. I don't, I don't buy the Lamar underperforming that in the playoffs. That data set for the 0 and 2 specifically, sometimes that just feels, it feels too small and circumstantial and I feel like these players change and get more confident and I think if, and this is an interesting bet, the Ravens are great in the first half. If the Ravens do what they're supposed to do in the first half, I think then he will be in a good position. I also agree with you. If they're struggling in the second half, some of that weight will come to bear. I'm not sure I buy the theory of anti Lamar as much as I'm pro spot pro. Steelers being better than they were when they played, you know, a little less than a month ago. One of the hotbeds for action is and likely to me a hotbed amongst regular betters is Baltimore first half which is six and a half. Lamar the best first half quarterback in the NFL the past 20 years. Steelers the worst first half team against the spread in the NFL since 2021. Do you have a thought on the first half? The Steelers? The Ravens six and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, I'll give You more useless numbers while I'm still here then Lamar, in his career, Chad, in a playoff game, he's never won a game where his team has given up more than 13 points. So I mean that's, that's pretty alarming that.

[Chad Millman]

Don't, don't take it personally that I'm not into one of your stats.

[Simon Hunter]

I am a stat standing up forever. But no, I just, I just. My whole point of just breaking down is that he's been choking, brother. Like guys want to deny it and be like, say what you just said. They're like, well, he can grow, he can change. All right, well, let's see it. I'm going to bet against it because it's like I, I have no data to backed up that he, he has grown and changed. He dominates the regular season and then he falls apart and does nothing in the playoffs. So we're, we're going to see it like these defenses know they're going to stack the box. They're going to make Lamar pass in this game. So yes, if Lamar doesn't get tight, we know he's the, we just said it. He's the second or first best quarterback in football right now. So first I'm with you. I get it. So, yeah, just, that's just. My viewpoint is I think it is a great number with Pittsburgh and everything like that, and my model backs it up. But the human. A little bit of it. I'm just thinking psychologically, he just seems like he gets flustered in the playoffs and that's panned out these last couple seasons.

[Chad Millman]

What do you think of the total to 43 and a half? It moved down from 46. So it's a big move. I think partially because he's a Flowers. I think, yeah, maybe because people think he'll be tight. I would expect that it'll be a low scoring game.

[Simon Hunter]

You better hope I just told you. I know if his, if his, if his team allows more than 13 points, he loses Lamar apparently in the playoffs. But my view of it is if we're taking Pittsburgh, we can't have it be a shootout. I have no confidence in Pittsburgh's offense in a shootout right now. Like that Russell Wilson we joked about from week 10 and all those, you know, midweek throwing those 50, 50 balls and it working out for him. That has not been there these last four or five weeks. And I think even Evan said it right. He hasn't scored more than 17 points in these last couple weeks. So yeah, it's, it's not a game that for us, we want it to be a shootout, but I have no view on the total. Like, I, I was going to bet the under, but I'm so invested in Pittsburgh. That's just my play.

[Chad Millman]

Well, look, if it's the kind of correlation where it's a very low total with a very high spread. So in those circumstances, you tend to want to lean into the underdog because people expect it'll be a low scoring game and it's just harder to win by 10 points in a low scoring game. So I hope it goes out the way that we want it to.

[Adnan Virk]

What's up, everybody? Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL unscripted with Virk and Demers.

[Jason Demers]

Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst, and boy, oh, boy, does daddy have a lot to say.

[Adnan Virk]

I love you, by the way, on NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Jason Demers]

I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture and you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.

[Adnan Virk]

Yeah, you're soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We get all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear in NHL.

[Jason Demers]

Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts. Forky.

[Adnan Virk]

That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burke and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Yes, sir.

[Chad Millman]

We're going to have the winner of the hundred thousand dollars Favorites Pick Them contest. Come on the show today. Daniel Winzenberg from North Dakota. I'm so excited. How about you?

[Simon Hunter]

I can't wait.

[Chad Millman]

Let's get to him. It is truly one of our greatest thrills that we get to do the favorites contest. $100,000 giveaway. The grand prize winner, $40,000. And this guy, folks, had a miraculous run. He had more 5 and O weeks, more undefeated weeks than he had losing weeks. If he had not even played the final week, he still would have won the contest. He beat out 50, 15,000 people to win the $40,000. He's North Dakota's finest gambler. Daniel Winzenberg. Welcome to the Favorites, brother. Congratulations.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Thank you. It's an honor to be on a show, and it was great, and I love doing it and trying to figure out who's going to win or at least cover.

[Chad Millman]

You live in Bow Bells? Bo Bells, North Dakota. Dude, I looked on the map. Matt Mitchell sent it around to everybody. This place is tiny, tiny, tiny.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

My hometown has 300 people in it. I live 10 miles outside of that, and my graduating class had 10 kids in it.

[Chad Millman]

So no.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Yes.

[Simon Hunter]

I gotta know, how does one have WI fi? Do you have Starlink? How do you. How are you putting your picks in every week?

[Daniel Winzenberg]

We do have WI Fi and luckily data works on phone, so it's. It's not too bad.

[Chad Millman]

What do you do there? Are you a farmer?

[Daniel Winzenberg]

That is exactly what I am, yes. I lived here my whole life. My dad and my uncle farmed, and then I just kind of joined in, and now me and my dad farm together. My uncle retired, so that's the story. So we don't need people. We just need a lot of farmland. And I have. Have cows, too. We do wheat, canola, durum, oats, flax, soybeans, peas. Tried a little corn. We're not really in corn country, but.

[Chad Millman]

Oat, flax, and soybeans. You've basically described my entire diet.

[Simon Hunter]

I thought you're gonna ask about daylight savings. What's your view on that? That's the topic we should be asking the farmer about. Should we change the clocks? Is that outdated?

[Daniel Winzenberg]

We need to go to the actual daylight savings time because right now it's getting too dark, too early.

[Simon Hunter]

There you go.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

All right, so give me your gambling load on. How did you get into it? And why are you so good at it right now and so much better than me and Simon?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Teach us your ways.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Because I farm. I spend a lot of time by myself or in a tractor or any equipment. So all day, every day, I just listen to podcasts. Our way I found you guys is I listen to cowherd all the time. And years ago, when Chad was on with Cowherd, I just wanted more gambling podcasts. So I found. Found out you had your own. Started listening every week. Like I said, I just listen to sports podcasts all day. So between what my opinions are, see what I agree with, what I don't agree with, and then I don't know, kind of go from there, I guess. And then every Sunday, I'm still in the tractor. I don't get to take off to watch football, so I take an iPad with and put the red zone on and kind of just Listen, don't have a lot of time to watch it, but always paying attention, I guess.

[Chad Millman]

I mean, that's the hard thing about being a farmer is the. The crops don't take a day off, the animals don't take a day off.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Just because it's Sunday doesn't mean we take the day off ever. Not during busy season, which is pretty much from April to October.

[Chad Millman]

Well, since you may be the greatest gambler who's ever lived, according to your record, I'm looking at it right now. You had two weeks where you went two and three. One of them you got to drop every other week was 3 and 2, 4 and 1 or 5 and. Oh. The big story this year in sports betting is how frequently the favorites were covering. What was your strategy through the year with regard to favorites and making your.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Picks every week bad against bad quarterbacks? Will Levis against him every week, like, I mean, until he proved me wrong and he didn't. So I don't think, like, home field advantage meant anything this year. So, I mean, even betting favorites, I was doing a lot of road favorites and it was paying out. I hated it. Road favorites seem to be cashing big time. I found out after week 10 that I was in the running for winning. I think I was in second place after week 10, and then I hated it. There were. I don't know how you guys do it. There was so much stress on it, and I had no money into it.

[Simon Hunter]

That's crazy. Every week you're chasing a big prize and you know that you can't. You literally couldn't have a bad week even though you didn't know that you could. I've had a bad week. You were that Far ahead.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Week 14. My girlfriend planned a trip for us to go to Puta Cana, which is awesome. Loved it. And I was more stressed about getting my picks in because I didn't know if I could get them in when I was in another country.

[Simon Hunter]

Oh, yeah.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

I was gonna have wi fi if I was gonna miss two weeks. We're on a beach, all inclusive resort, and there's this little tiny sports bar in the corner of the lobby. And I made her go in there and watch football with me as I was trying to, like, cover it. Luckily, we just went for the end of the late games, but we were still in there for, like, two hours. Turns out I ended up going 5 and O that week and picking the exact number of passing hours on Monday night. So it ended up working out pretty good. So it was a pretty good trip.

[Chad Millman]

Have you put your, have you been in that kind of position before, like as a gambler or any other scenario where you've had to carry that kind of stress?

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Not like this.

[Chad Millman]

Farming doesn't do that to you.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

No. There's a little bit more leeway doing that. I mean you got to make great decisions, a lot of money involved in it. But it's not the stress like this to where one bad week and you're out completely.

[Chad Millman]

When did you realize that you won it all?

[Daniel Winzenberg]

I knew for sure after the early games on Sunday because I think I had a three game lead and the person a second third, they were tied. They couldn't have caught me. I mean in gambling I would not. Not saying I win until the clock hit zero.

[Chad Millman]

Have you decided what you're doing with the money yet?

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Kinda end up buying some cows the other day after I won.

[Simon Hunter]

Good man.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

So some of the profits will go to that. And then my other idea is I got really big into the like sports memorabilia. When I started this my plan was I wanted an autograph jersey of all the Minnesota Twins retired numbers and I'm halfway through getting them. So the part of it might go to buying the other half. I still need a Kirby Pocket Harmon killer Brew and oh, Kent Herbeck by the way.

[Chad Millman]

Let me see if I can remember Ken Herbeck 14. Yes man. Come on, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Now I do have one request. Daniel, can you please name these cows after me and Chad?

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Yes, they're. These are going to be known as the either the favorites or the action network group.

[Chad Millman]

How many cows did you buy?

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Well, I bought 36 of them, so.

[Simon Hunter]

Actually you got a ton of acres. Guy's an American hero.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

This 40000 is not going to quite cover all of them, but luckily I needed them anyway. This is just helping out.

[Chad Millman]

So are they cows that you're gonna like? Do you milk those cows? Like what, what? Dairy farm? Beef farm.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Beef farm. They'll have calves and then I'll sell the steers and then I'll probably keep the heifers and then either get a bowl to breed them and then I'll sell them as bread heifers the next year. Or, or I'll just keep them for myself and just kind of keep having calves.

[Chad Millman]

Whichever cows you name Simon and Chad, let's not kill those cows.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

I'll keep those ones.

[Chad Millman]

Those cows live a happy long life just chewing on grass and whatever else cows eat and make them warm and comfortable out there in North Dakota. Congratulations on winning the Favorites podcast. $100,000 pro football pick a contest. The cow king of North Dakota. I wish we had just tailed you the whole season. Daniel, congratulations on a heat.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Thank you.

[Chad Millman]

You are the hero of the favorites contest. Congratulations.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Thank you.

[Chad Millman]

Simon. We're going to have two cows named after us. If nothing else, it was worth doing the contest just for that. We basically bought ourselves two cows for $40,000. And he's not going to kill him. He's going to let him live forever. Denver at Buffalo. Buffalo is now a nine point favorite. This was a. And the totals 47. This was a stubborn, stubborn eight and a half. One of the lines that barely budged during the week. It moved to nine, I think this morning at bet365. So much freaking love for Bo Nicks. So much fear of Sean Payton and what they can scheme against the Bill's defense that has struggled late in the year. Buffalo, 30th in EPA per pass allowed since Week 9. 32nd in passing success rate. I don't know. It's not like the Broncos defense is impervious to criticism. Josh Allen has dominated man coverage, which is what the Broncos play. Bo Nix has been much worse against zone than against man, which is what the Bills predominantly play. I still like the Bills here. It just feels like it's primed for a veteran quarterback, makes all the right moves. Bo Nix at some point can't have his handheld by Sean Payton in the most crucial moment of the game. And like we saw against the Bengals, will make a bad mistake.

[Evan Abrams]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And this will be all your credit if the Bills do come this number because you're. You're the one that really believes in it. I'm. I am the one that's like, I wanted to be on Denver. I feel like I'm being bullied because everyone I've talked to basically is the same as you. They like the Bills here. So I just put the Bills in a ton of teasers. Like you're giving me Bills at minus two and a half. That's an amazing number against a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road in the playoffs. So my fear is what you just talked about, this Bills defense, that's the fear. Like that. It feels like the back door will be always open. And, you know, if we get Josh Allen that we know and love, and he just goes full kill mode and he puts up 40 points, yeah, they're covering that number. They're going to absolutely roll this Denver team. But the fear for me is just if he has one or two bad drives, right, if he just you know, doesn't. Doesn't perform well or just lets this team get back in it. We've kind of seen this, this Bill's team, they. They let bad teams backdoor them and now they're playing against an. Is not bad. Like this is an offense that they know how to scheme it up for Bo Nicks. They know how to get him out wide or out in the open to either run the ball or pass it on. Kind of simple reads. You know, the biggest thing for the, this, this Broncos team, they very are much so Sean Payne's image of the Drew Brees, right, the quick read three yard pass, he really has embraced that. And you know, that's the key with these young quarterbacks. If you can get them into third and four, third and threes, it's so important compared to them being third and eight. Like, you know, veteran quarterbacks can kind of get away with that stuff. Bo Nicks cannot, even though, you know, the numbers might back up. He's been good pushing the ball down the field. We've seen when he struggles against these good defenses because he's in the long positions, right. And he tries to force a ball in terrible turnovers like he's still a rookie. So, yeah, I'm, I'm backing you here because you're my guy and I do believe in this Bills team. You know, it feels like, you know, it's just, it feels lined up this year for that Bills Detroit super bowl, which, you know, everyone, if you're, if you're. You got to be sick in the head if you, you don't want that, right? Like, these two teams that have been through hell with their fan bases, it's lined up for them to make it and this is the start of it. Like Josh, Josh Allen has struggled win loss, record wise in the playoffs, where none of that to me is on him. Like, you go back and you go through all those games, I feel like Josh Allen always put his team in the best position to win and it was either the coaching or the defense. I let him down a lot of those spots. And the hope obviously is this year it all comes together in the perfect year that he's put together and they figured it out. But they're. It's the same old Bills thing, right? They still have the weaknesses on the defenses and I still have a little bit of questions about their head coach. So, yeah, like, I'll back them here, but I'm already thinking about next week. Like, I can't wait to really dive into next week. Bills matchup so, come on, Bills got to win this one. I have a lot invested in this one. And for Chad, we got a lot invested in this spread.

[Chad Millman]

The total in this game is 47. The Luck Rankings have this game as an under.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

What scares me is Josh Allen just going off, you know, but even if.

[Simon Hunter]

He goes off, I think, like, even pros I've talked to, they've been hammering this under as well. I have no opinion on this total, but if you want to know the professional side, it is the under. Seen a lot of books now even before he hopped on here, moving down to 46 and a half. So smart money is coming in to me. When you mix in what it's going to be in Buffalo, how cold it will be. This could be the typical game, Chad, where The Bills win 40 nothing. I know it sounds crazy to even think about, but that's what, like, I would be scared, too, about Josh Allen going crazy. But I could see them rolling and then just the Broncos never getting off the bus. They're just totally outmatched playing against probably one of the better teams they've played all season, and they just kind of fall apart. So I. I get where you're coming from, but professionals love the under. The Lux Luck under is something that always jumps out to us. We always talk totals with the Luck rankings. So if you're looking for what smart money is doing right now, the smart money from people respect right now is on the under.

[Chad Millman]

Green Bay at Philly. Philly is a 4 1/2 point favorite right now. Totals 45 1/2. Jalen Hurts practiced on Wednesday. He is expected to play on Sunday. No surprise you mentioned that. You've watched the tape from practice. You thought he looked really good. The line has not moved since he practiced because it was already priced in. Telling you right now, based on what you said and the fact that we love the Eagles here, feels like we're in the foxhole on this one.

[Simon Hunter]

You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team.

[Evan Abrams]

I commit to a city.

[Simon Hunter]

I'm a foxhole guy. All right, I love it. Let's go.

[Chad Millman]

We are, you know, but like, it's just sort of been hanging at four and a half since we spoke on Tuesday. The total has moved down from 47. I would expect it to be a very slow start by both teams, but I just think the Eagles are so much better than people are even recognizing because this defense is dominant.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And I'm definitely trying to thread the needle here. Take in Green Bay first quarter and first half. But to me, that. That to me feels like the smart play because of what we talk about. Like these teams kind of are what they are, right? Green Bay performs well in the first half. They're great on script, the Eagles, whatever may be the reason, even before his injury, Jalen Hurst just comes out slow. And we've seen that time and time again this season that they just do not perform well. And a lot of three and outs early on, right? Until he gets into a rhythm, this offense doesn't really move the ball well. But yeah, for my biggest bets of this game, it's not even close. Like, I am heavily investing this Eagles team at three and a half. At four. At four and a half. Still been betting it even today. I bet it again when I got up this morning. And you know, I'm just like you. I'm shocked. This Nebraska moves off Jalen Hurts practicing, which either shows that some really smart money's on the other side on Green Bay, or. Or the books are waiting to get the clearance that he is at a concussion protocol. That's what we're all waiting for because we actually have to do that practice like he did yesterday and wake up symptom free today. Right? No headaches, no, you know, not feeling right, no headaches, any of that stuff. So, you know, as we are on the air right now, me and Chad, I have not seen a single thing online, no text, nothing that says otherwise. So we're going to keep going forward. Like, Jalen Hurts is playing this game and he's all good. So, yeah, for me, matchup wise, I mean, I don't know if you saw that. Basically they put out the players all pro votes for the NFL season this season. And basically the way it works is players can vote for anybody but themselves and anyone on their team. So, you know, you can vote everyone, obviously in the league. And it jumped out to me that, you know, the number one, or I guess number two, but he's still an all Pro in their mind is Jalen Carter at the D line position. And the fact that, you know, Zach Braun, our linebacker, has got so much respect as well. It's like the. The Eagles have the defense, I think me and Chad and like everyone else, our biggest question mark right now is, is Jalen Hurts going to show up in this game? Because I remember I gave you that stupid stat about Lamar's never won a game when his team goes up more than 13 points. Jalen hurts has never won a playoff game. Where his defense has given up more than seven points, which sounds insane because he made it to the super bowl, but that's how that season kind of broke for them, where they, they played against teams that, you know, the Giants weren't really that good that year. And then they got to play a Brock Purdy, who they hurt in the first quarter, and then, you know, the rest is history. Obviously, I talk about all the time. He had the best game of his career in that Super Bowl. He was incredible. He just ran into my home. So this team feels like they're still being a little underrated here and that if he was fully healthy coming into this game, this would be six. Because how can we not talk about how serious of those injuries were to the Screen Bay team? Like, they lost their number one deep threat receiver and their number one cornerback, and now they're playing against one of the best offenses in football and one of the best defense in the football. Like, to me, it's, it's, it's. Maybe I'm not giving enough respect to the floor. And that's what the pro, other pros I've talked to who are giving tons of respect to him and just trusting him with this number. It's like you get Leflore as a big dog like this, a four and a half dog against an Eagles team that might be a little overrated in the public eye because of all the numbers. We just talked about the fact that they were such a dominant defense and everything like that this regular season. But yeah, I, I feel pretty good about this Eagles team and I look at this as a rare opportunity that if this Eagles team, you could still get them at plus 700 for Super Bowl. And I think right now the lines might be the odds on favorite at plus 280 or plus 290. Do we really think there's that big of a difference between the Eagles and the Lions? I don't. I do think this Eagles team matched up really well for them. So it is interesting. The books are kind of not showing their hand, but they are a little bit. They, they don't. They believe in this Eagles team, but not as much as I clearly do. And they're, they're kind of hedging their bets here, singing they're not going to be the tea coming out of the east here, so. Or the nfc, I should say. So. Yeah, I'm, I'm interested in this game for that. Just the biggest standpoint of how Hertz looks, but it's also a true test for this defense against LaFleur offensive mind, like this is the ultimate test for them against a guy who, you know you're giving him a lot of time to face the defense for the second time around. You expect him to have this kind of figured out. But you know, to me, this, this grade 8 team is underachieved all season. I made that joke with you, Chad. They won the same amount of divisional games as the Chicago Bears did this season. They went one and five. So this was a team that we joked about being the all hype team. They lived up to it even through the Jordan Love injuries and Malik Willis coming in like they somehow found a way and they got the raw deal of being, you know, 11 win team now being the seven seed. So it wouldn't be, we wouldn't be shocked if Green Bay pulls off the upset. But I would be shocked in the sense of this is probably the best Eagles team I've seen in my lifetime and this would be a huge disappointment getting knocked out at home in round one.

[Chad Millman]

Well, look, I do think that the Eagles are being a bit undervalued defensively. So much is made of Jalen Hurts and I think from a public perspective, too much is made of him having been in the concussion protocol and being out and not enough is made of just how dominant this defense is. I watched a lot of freaking Eagles games this year. I know you did too. You just wouldn't want to be playing this team. I agree with you about the Lions. Like I would not want to have to face the Eagles who are so good against the run, which is what the Lions need to be great at to get their offense going. Just looking ahead, handicapping a potential NFC title game. LaFleur is the X factor here. You know, like we've talked about it, we don't like to bet against LaFleur. So I understand the four and a half. The the betting on the packers at plus three in the first half is another bet that a lot of people have been talking about. Also taking the under in the first half. The Eagles have generally been a bad team in the first half, especially bad in the first quarter. The opportunity for the packers because they will have been game planning those first 15 and scripting is better for them first quarter, first half than it is over the extended game. So that's getting a lot of attention right now betting the packers at plus three. So I understand that one entirely. That is our Fox hole. Which brings us to Simon, our big balls bet of the week presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls Tommy John has the support. Great game start with great underwear and Tommy John makes the greatest. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, three point favorites over the Washington Commanders. The total is 50, 50 and a half. Highest total of the weekend. You know, it's a game featuring two average, downright bad defenses with two explosive quarterbacks who are not immune to turnovers. Yet we're going with the veteran game playing quarterback, playmaking quarterback, over the rookie playmaking quarterback. I think because we think the Bucks are undervalued in this spot versus an overhyped team with a dynamic, dynamic playmaker and Jaden Daniels.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, and I, I get why the early money and some professional money is coming on the over. I do personally like Dunder, but it's simply because it is over 50. It feels way too, way too high for a playoff game. I know the first time they played it was what, 37, 20 Tampa. So I get the perspective of, you know, this. I feel like people think this can be a shootout, but from my mindset, it's like the Bucks can't have this be a shootout. They need to have a big Bucky Irving game. They need to lean on their run, keep, keep the limited snaps out of Jay and Daniel's hands because that's how he gets you. Like, he is the kind of guy that he is, you know, one of the more dangerous guys with the balls in his hand and the more opportunities you give him to be on the field, he's going to get you. Especially this, like you just said, this Bucks defense, you know, top Bulls can do a lot of scheming and kind of give him unique looks that he might not be ready for, but eventually he'll get you, especially if he can wear your defense out, not only with his, his legs, but using his offensive weapons. So interesting that this is so high. You know, it's rare you see a 50, especially when it's not, you know, a Lamar versus Josh Allen game. Like that makes more sense. Not a Daniel Jaden Daniels vs. Baker game, but that's how great these two offenses have been this season and what you just said, how average both these defenses have been. But, you know, I look at this Bucks team and as the weeks went along, I just love it more and more just because I am in the sports books, I am talking to Joe Public in the line. We're all waiting to cash our tickets or make bets and it is insane how much love and respect guys have for Jane Daniels and this commander's team. And they just want to bet him, right? That's the Fun, sexy side, it feels like. And this Baker side feels like, you know, this ugly. You know, no one wants to bet a type of team that just limped into the playoffs. And, you know, just like Chad, a lot of people don't respect NFC South. I think that's a, A division that not.

[Chad Millman]

I don't know why you would say that. I've never done anything but love and support the NFC South. Great franchises, a lot of memories, great moments in NFL history. People really rally around those brands.

[Simon Hunter]

But it makes me even more sick when you do think about, you know, poor Matt Mitchell and these Lions fans. They've been around forever. And Tampa's here, you know, what, a couple weeks and they already got two Super Bowls. That's the way it goes. Yeah, it's. I'm. I'm looking to it right now, and I just can't get over the fact that we're getting Baker and this veteran team. It's still at minus three against this Commanders. It does feel like. I know we love this Chargers number and I do love it, especially at two and a half, but I really, really love this. This Bucks team like this right now, other than the Spitsburg line are probably. It's probably going to be my biggest bet. This pretty much all day, every day, I've been finding different books to get some money down on this, on this Bucks line. And for the most part, I haven't been turned away too much from bookmakers because it's been pretty heavy. Commander's money, like this is basically the public's favorite dog this week, which, you know, isn't shocking, right? They're a fun, exciting team. Gino Daniels is really fun. So I get where they're coming from. And the fact that, you know, this, this could be a coin flip game, right? We'll know once it starts. But. But my view of it is just a rare opportunity, taking a veteran coach with a veteran quarterback who had playoff success together. You know, just last year they rolled that Eagles team like they know how to play in these exact situations, this exact scenario. So, yeah, let me fade this overhyped Commanders team and take this Bucks team at minus three.

[Chad Millman]

You know, I reviewed the show from Tuesday a little bit and I think it, it sort of went over my head in the moment how much you loved the Bucks and now you're being so clear about it. Like it is a very good matchup. And. And the Bucks love to blitz Jaden Daniels. Not nearly as effective against the blitz. The total at 50 and a half. I like the under two. One of the main reasons I like it is because Baker obviously we know is a turnover machine. He's, you know, he's going to throw an interception at some point. But Jaden also like a few, few more fumbles than you'd like. Only through nine picks, seven picks in the last seven weeks of the season. So like he was so accurate and pick free in the first half of the year but started to show a little bit at the end of the year. And those turnovers are just drive killers, right? And like a lot of times they are happening in the opponent's half of the field. So then all of a sudden instead of getting that touchdown or field goal, the other team is getting the ball and they're going on a long drive. Eats up more clock, no points out of the drive that was headed in a good direction. So I don't mind the under here at all either. 50 and a half especially feels extraordinarily.

[Simon Hunter]

High and we've seen it though that like even the Cowboys you can say is not that good of a run team. They were pretty much running it down this commander's team throat. And you know, Bijan Robinson just a week before that having his way. Saquon having his way. So you know I know Bucky Irving is not putting the same sentence as those other guys for I get it. You know he's the kind of new to the league and he's, he's not that type of talent. But if you really break down the numbers and look at what Bucky's done this season, he is a top 10 running back in my opinion. Like this guy is a workhorse and that to me is going to be the game plan for, for the Bucks, like for everything I read from their beat writers and you know, I wish I had sourced on the inside. I unfortun I don't really have any connections down there in Tampa, but it feels like the way guys are talking about, it's like going to be a heavy Bucky Irving game and they're going to lean on that run just keeping the ball at Jane Daniel's hand. So. And what you just talked about, they need to protect Baker from himself sometimes, right? Like Baker can't help himself to turn over. You just can't have those stupid turnovers in the playoffs. Like that's going to cost you. So that's another reason why I like this under so much is it just feels like it's going to be a run heavy game from this Bucks team.

[Chad Millman]

Simon here at the Favorites we know that Feedback is a gift and we're getting loads of feedback about my Tommy John reads. Our listeners keep hearing me talk about my downstairs, talking about my lowers. The reactions are mixed. That is the one thing about feedback, but one thing they all agree on. I'm very comfortable. Some might agree too comfortable. But that's what happens when you're decked out in Tommy John. You unlock a level of comfort so overpowering you can barely control what you say into a microphone. And with a special sale for our listeners, you too can achieve this level of comfort. And with thousands of five star reviews, you don't need to take my word for it. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?

[Simon Hunter]

Because comfort is king.

[Chad Millman]

That's right. And right now you can shop tommyjohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn.com favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorites what's up everybody?

[Adnan Virk]

Adnan Burke here today about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL Unscripted with Burkin Demers.

[Jason Demers]

Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst. And boy, oh boy, does daddy have a lot to say.

[Adnan Virk]

I love you, by the way, on NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?

[Jason Demers]

Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.

[Adnan Virk]

Yeah, you're soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We had all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear in NHL.

[Jason Demers]

Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Ferkie.

[Adnan Virk]

That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burke and demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

Last game on the board, Minnesota visiting the LA Rams. The line has moved from two and a half to one and a half. It finally budged a little bit last night. Early this morning, wise guys definitely coming in on the Rams. The number is down to one. It's down to half in some places. Total is 48. I think at the end of the day we don't like to bet against Matthew Stafford and we're getting him at a Dog at home. As a dog at home, yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And it's another game that I've taken the under on. It's. It's all about what my mindset is in my game script line of this feels like type of game that is going to be run heavy for this Rams team. And we've kind of seen it now with this blind for his defense. That's how you can attack them. Like you really can attack them through the run because the way he kind of plays their style of defense. And you know, we joked about it like, Williams is one of the best running backs in football, especially when you get down in the red zone. The guy's a scoring machine. And Stafford, to me, since that, you know, Lions game, or was it Bills? I always keep mixing it up. I believe it was the Bills that they beat. He put up whatever it was, 44, 42 points against that team. Since then, the offense has not been the same. Right. They've been struggling. They've just kind of been a different team. I can't lie to you, Chad. I don't know what I'm going to get here from Stafford. Like, it's. It's been different. Maybe he is. He's got a major injury I don't know about and maybe that week off really helped that injury and he'll bounce back and this is the perfect situation for him. Puka and Cooper cup, like, this is a great match for them against the secondary of the Minnesota Vikings. But I think it comes back to that Evans stat, right, about quarterbacks making their first start. Like, this is Sam Darnold's first start. And we saw last week in a game where he had the weight of the world, the future of his career on him, he crumbled. He did. He melted in that game. Even when I went back and watched it, he missed so many opportunities and so many throws that he's just been nailing all season. Like we talked about, he's had one of the best seasons, you know, ever put together by a Vikings quarterback. Like, he really was the perfect general for that offense. And, you know, KOC had ultimate confidence in him. Like, the place you draw up, it was like, okay, you got to take this hit here, but you're going to get a touchdown or a free release on one of your receivers here. Like, if you can just hang in the pocket, let the route develop, it's going to be there. He just was not hitting that last week. And you saw that he got flustered right after he got a couple of hits to the mouth Isn't that what the Rams are going to do here? Aren't they just going to bring a ton of pressure and be like okay, it worked last week. Let's see if he figured it out in a week or if this is what he is, if he is going to struggle against it because early in the year he was great against the blitz and it was alarming seeing how bad he was last week. So yeah, this is a game where me and you could get burned. Chad. We could be overreacting to last week and Sam Darnold, his struggles and underreacting to Matthew Stafford and this Rams team down the stretch here that they have not been the same offense. But to me this is really about trusting the numbers and the trends that everything points to this Rams team and you're still getting great value as them as a dog. Like I have him as over a one point favorite. We're still getting plus one and a half in a couple books out there and I know it doesn't sound like a big deal but every point matters in the playoffs. It is a big deal. So yeah, to me, plus one and a half. I still love the value on this Rams team and yeah, I'm going to be betting them and the under here.

[Chad Millman]

So this is a luck over a lot of expected regression to more scoring for both teams who obviously we saw the Vikings not score very much in week 18 against the Lions and the Rams have been scoring less and less since that game against the bills. So Dr. Nick and crew like this as a luck over Simon. You're fading, Dr. Nick. How does that make you feel?

[Simon Hunter]

It's not good. Maybe I'll do the cheat that Dr. Nick does. I'll just do the first half. I'll go first half over.

[Chad Millman]

Coward.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, right.

[Chad Millman]

All right. So the Rams for some reason are the game that I feel the least confident about as a. I like the number. I like them much more as a dog than a favorite. But essentially if you're betting him at one and a half, you're. You're saying you expect them to win the game. And I do. But I still look at this and like of all these, I feel best about, I think the Bucks and the Chargers and worst about the Rams and the Bills.

[Evan Abrams]

It's fair.

[Simon Hunter]

And I told you though, if you're feeling a little cowardly, throw them in a teaser, brother. Getting. Getting the Rams with seven.

[Chad Millman]

By the way, Rams and Bills are the perfect teaser. So if I that's what I'm feeling. That's. That's what I'M going to do. That's what I, that's what I'm going to do. All right. Each week we give out a two team Moneyline dog parlay. This week it's a little bit different just because there's fewer dog options to really consider. Bet365 is going to boost the odds and highlight this Moneyline parlay to their site all weekend under both promo pages. Remember, both games are eligible for bet365's early payout promo where your Moneyline pick gets marked as a win if either team takes a 17 point lead. Even if they are Lou end up losing. If you want to bet this better to bet365. This week's boosted parlay is going to be the Rams and the Bucks. Find the boost under either the Rams or Bucs game pages on bet365. I don't know if we can do a Moneyline underdog round robin. Like, what are you going to do? Steelers, Rams, Commanders? Texans? Broncos?

[Simon Hunter]

Like, no, it's definitely, definitely the week you do the favorites. I've had a couple fans reach out that thing they've been saying like, you know, since week 10 and 11 they've just been going the other way because our money allowed Robbins obviously had been dead on arrival. Dogs have just not been winning outright. So I mean, if you want to go the other way, Chad, it's a fun week to do the favorites. Like you take the Eagles money line, take the Bucks money line, take the Rams in there. Chargers, like if you want to stay away from the high ones like the, the, the Ravens and the Bills. I still feel pretty good about those ones you just gave out. Obviously, you know, we, we only love one road team really this week, and that's the Chargers. But it, this week actually tends to be pretty good for the dogs. Right? Historically. I don't know if Evan has the numbers on it, but it feels like normally dogs do cover on wild card weekend. Like this is usually a good weekend for them. So money lines, not so much. But if you're, if you are just throwing them into around Robin and taking the number, that's fine too.

[Chad Millman]

Well then I'm really thrilled that I'm going all in on the Chargers and the Bucks and the Bills. Super excited about that. And when we bring Evan on, he's going to make me feel even worse. What are your biggest bets right now? Bucks and Steelers.

[Simon Hunter]

Bucks and Steelers definitely. And then obviously teasers. I just been doing a ton of teasers. Rams. I told you when the Chargers got Down to two and a half. I, I, the long, I went, I went through the zero, took the charger up to plus three and a half and yeah, Bill's down to two and a half. It just feels like that's a gift. So, yeah, those, those are definitely my biggest bets right now. Just straight bets. Tampa and Pittsburgh on their numbers.

[Adnan Virk]

When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.

[Daniel Winzenberg]

Let's play Scooch roulette.

[Chad Millman]

Who should we go go with for Scooch Roulette into the playoffs? You get the first choice since you were the season long winner.

[Simon Hunter]

Thanks. God, I just, I love, I love them all. I guess I will go with. I gotta do it. I gotta go with my boy Baker. I'll take Baker. Minus.

[Chad Millman]

I kind of wanted to take Tampa. Darn you. All right, you're taking Tampa then I guess I'm gonna go with the Chargers.

[Simon Hunter]

There you go.

[Chad Millman]

I have to. All right, before we get out of here, let's bring in director of research Evan Abrams for the final word. Evan, the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.

[Evan Abrams]

Honestly, I have so much to kind of catch up here on because you've asked me a bunch of questions. So I'm going to attempt to go through a bunch of different things here and you guys can stop me down whenever you want. So you were talking about like Josh, Lamar and Hertz, obviously all three at home this weekend. Interesting enough, I kind of grouped them together because they all are kind of looking for still that super bowl win. All trying to get there. Obviously Hertz has been there. They are as a group, eight and five straight up at home in the playoffs, but one in seven away from home, which means nothing for this weekend, but also says that they just can't get that big one to get there. I found that kind of interesting. The second one I wanted to bring to you as Simon just alluded to, since 2017, underdogs 52 and 34 in the playoffs against a spread 61%, 17% ROI. But wild card round, they're actually 24 and 12, 67%. Even better. Wow, 30% ROI. So yeah, underdogs have had an advantage in this round. Let's keep going with another one. Simon mentioned here. So we talked about the first playoff starts, teams making, quarterbacks making a first playoff start against a quarterback with experience. 19 and 37 against the spread 19 and 38 straight up since 2002. And basically the same numbers on the road, 11 and 21 straight up. So that's Bo Nix, Jaden Daniels and Sam Darnold this weekend. Let me go to what Chad mentioned. So chargers with this third straight road game. So yes, teams having their third consecutive road game are 39% straight up since 2003. But it is important to note favorites are 24 and 11 in that spot, including three and one in the playoffs. Now, Chad, I took your chat.

[Chad Millman]

No, we're good.

[Evan Abrams]

We're gonna leave it there. We're gonna leave it there.

[Chad Millman]

You said to cut you off. I feel like you're good. Say what you want to say. I will just say this what you want to say.

[Evan Abrams]

You were talking about good coaches. So I look at it from like Pro2 points of view. I just took every coach who's won a Super bowl of the list. They're 21 and 18 straight up in the spot as a road favorite. Third gamer later. So above 500. I think it proves your point. We can move on from there. I think an interesting aspect that you.

[Chad Millman]

Guys mentioned is great confirmation bias. He is best.

[Evan Abrams]

I really spend the entire show trying to make sure you guys look smarter at the end. So let's just keep going with that. So Flowers, I. I think his impact on the field is worth discussing here. So 24.1% of the Ravens target target share this year, which is almost 10% higher than the second player on the team, which would be Mark Andrews. And I think the biggest adjustment Lamar might have to go through if Flowers isn't on the field. He has 89 first read or design targets just for Flowers this year. That's 40 more than the other guy, Mark Andrews on the team. So without Flowers, I just think he's going to have to adjust his first and second reads a little bit. So that could be interesting. I did look this up. So Tomlin05 straight up in the playoffs as a dog of three or more. He is the only coach with five losses and no wins since 2000 in that spot.

[Chad Millman]

So what about against the spread in that spot?

[Evan Abrams]

I can look in a second but the nine and a half is huge for him. But I have that in my article so I can follow up.

[Chad Millman]

Up.

[Evan Abrams]

Let's keep going here for a second. You guys mentioned Pittsburgh and Baltimore and Baltimore having a lead. This one absolutely blew me away. So historically it's been difficult for Baltimore to hold the lead against Pittsburgh since 2020. The Ravens are 2 and 7 straight up against the Steelers when leading at any point in the game. They are 2 and 5 straight up when leading by 7 plus points, which is just unbelievable to me. So the narrative of them getting ahead and holding. It hasn't been great before but obviously different quarterbacks, different situations. I will give you two more here. So you guys like the Eagles and something that I was kind of surprised by. So under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 24 and two straight up 177 and two against the spread as a home favorite when leading by seven plus points at any point in the game. So really not giving away the lead at all. And when that opponent is above.500 in that spot, Sirianni is 140 straight up and 12 and 2 against the spread. So getting a lead shouldn't be an issue in this one, at least not historically. And then I know you guys like like the Rams. So this is just one spot and the Rams are the only team in this spot this week. So teams that become smaller Underdogs so basically open plus four, close plus three are actually 45 and 2069 against the spread over the last 20 years in the playoffs, including 55 and 12 in a six point teaser that is just the Rams right now as every other line has held steady or gotten higher.

[Chad Millman]

I gotta say that's some of your best stuff of the season.

[Simon Hunter]

Wow.

[Evan Abrams]

I'm peeking right? Right time here. This is perfect.

[Chad Millman]

Loved it. While I'm reading the ad read for bet365. See if you can find out how Tomlin is against the spread in those five games that we just discussed. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5, sign up using promo code favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5. Get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. I'm waiting to see in the chat.

[Evan Abrams]

If Evan oh four and one against the spread. I apologize.

[Chad Millman]

Oh my God.

[Evan Abrams]

Failing to cover the spread by six points per game.

[Chad Millman]

Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on The Action Network YouTube page Sunday night after the Packers Eagles game. To recap the first four Wild Card games, download us from Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate Review subscribe leave us 5 stars say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.

[Adnan Virk]

What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virkin Demers.

[Jason Demers]

Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.

[Adnan Virk]

Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together, chat about the sport that we love.

[Jason Demers]

Tons of guests are going to join in into. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le Table.

[Adnan Virk]

Listen to NHL Unscripted with Verkin demers in the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.