The Herd with Colin Cowherd: The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Wild Card Weekend Release Date: January 9, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman (Action Network) and Simon Hunter
Presented by: bet365

Introduction

In this episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter dive deep into their NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets, providing insightful analyses and unique perspectives on the top playoff matchups. Breaking from their usual format, they not only discuss favored side bets but also introduce additional recommendations based on the latest trends and listener feedback.

Chargers vs. Texans: A Bold Stand on the Side

Chad and Simon take a contrarian stance against the majority of professionals and the public favoring the Houston Texans. Instead, they confidently back the Los Angeles Chargers to cover a -2.5 point spread.

• Simon Hunter:
  "We are going with a bet that we think is smart and we think we're getting a great number, especially at minus two and a half." ([05:13])

• Analysis:
  The hosts highlight the Chargers' robust defense and quarterback Justin Herbert’s consistent performance. Despite the Texans’ statistical weaknesses—31st in EPA per pass and second-most pressured dropbacks—the Chargers' ability to limit mistakes and sustain drives makes them formidable.

• Chad Millman:
  "The things that the Chargers are good at are the things that the Texans have struggled with." ([10:31])

Steelers vs. Ravens: Challenging the Consensus

While professionals lean towards favoring the Baltimore Ravens, Chad and Simon remain skeptical, citing concerns over quarterback Lamar Jackson's playoff performance.

• Simon Hunter:
  "Lamar is one of the few guys that just has not lived up to the hype and performance of the regular season in the playoffs." ([22:00])

• Key Points:
  They discuss Jackson’s struggles in clutch playoff moments and the Steelers’ improved defense compared to last season. Additionally, uncertainties around Ravens' wide receiver Zay Flowers add another layer of complexity to the bet.

• Chad Millman:
  "If the Ravens do what they're supposed to do in the first half, I think then he [Jackson] will be in a good position." ([26:06])

Bills vs. Broncos: Balancing Confidence and Risk

The Bills are favored by professionals, but Chad and Simon offer a nuanced take. They prefer a +10 point spread for the Bills instead of taking the moneyline, emphasizing the Broncos' defensive capabilities against Josh Allen.

• Simon Hunter:
  "I'm heavily invested in this one." ([41:03])

• Discussion:
  They analyze Allen’s potential to dominate or falter under pressure, considering the Broncos’ ability to disrupt his rhythm. The hosts weigh historical performances and current season dynamics to justify their preference for the spread over the outright win.

Eagles vs. Packers: Underdog Potential and Defensive Prowess

Chad and Simon express strong support for the Philadelphia Eagles, emphasizing their dominant defense and questioning the Packers' ability to overcome them, especially in the first half.

• Simon Hunter:
  "The Eagles have the defense; I think me and Chad, and like everyone else, our biggest question mark right now is, is Jalen Hurts going to show up in this game?" ([45:38])

• Insights:
  They delve into Jalen Hurts’ health and recent performances, alongside the Packers' offensive challenges. The hosts suggest that Packers may struggle to establish momentum early, giving the Eagles an edge.

• Chad Millman:
  "We are in the foxhole on this one." ([45:38])

Buccaneers vs. Commanders: Veteran Strategy Over Rookie Hype

The Buccaneers are favored against the Washington Commanders, with Chad and Simon advocating for a -3 point spread. They argue that the Commanders’ rookie quarterback may not withstand Tampa Bay’s seasoned defense.

• Simon Hunter:
  "The Bucks can't have this be a shootout." ([53:30])

• Analysis:
  Emphasizing the Buccaneers’ run-heavy game plan and strong defensive schemes, the hosts believe that veteran quarterback Baker Mayfield will control the game tempo, minimizing turnovers and explosive plays from the Commanders.

• Chad Millman:
  "Baker can't help himself to turn over. You just can't have those stupid turnovers in the playoffs." ([58:15])

Rams vs. Vikings: Value in the Underdog

Despite the Rams being slight favorites, Chad and Simon find value in betting them as underdogs, citing Matthew Stafford’s declining offensive performance and poor matchup against the Vikings’ defense.

• Simon Hunter:
  "This is a game where me and you could get burned." ([66:05])

• Discussion:
  They explore Stafford’s recent struggles and the Vikings’ defensive strengths, suggesting that the Rams may not capitalize on their offense as effectively as expected. The under is also considered a strong play given both teams’ tendencies.

• Chad Millman:
  "We don't like to bet against Matthew Stafford and we're getting him at a Dog at home." ([62:01])

Contest Segment: Celebrating Daniel Winzenberg

A highlight of the episode is the recognition of Daniel Winzenberg from North Dakota, who won the $40,000 first-place prize in the Favorites Pro Football Pick contest. Daniel shares his journey and success, attributing his triumph to consistent listening and strategic betting, even while managing his farming duties.

• Simon Hunter:
  "You are the hero of the favorites contest. Congratulations." ([38:56])

• Daniel Winzenberg:
  "My whole point of just breaking down is that he's been choking, brother." ([36:03])

• Chad Millman:
  "Those cows live a happy long life just chewing on grass and whatever else cows eat and make them warm and comfortable out there in North Dakota." ([38:56])

Closing Thoughts

Chad and Simon wrap up the episode by reiterating their key bets for the Wild Card Weekend, emphasizing the Chargers, Bucks, Bills, and Rams as their top picks. They also encourage listeners to engage with their content and place bets responsibly, thanks to their partnership with bet365.

• Chad Millman:
  "We are dead on with our love of the Bucks and the Rams on the other games." ([16:01])

• Simon Hunter:
  "This is a great number with Pittsburgh and everything like that, and my model backs it up." ([28:43])

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Simon Hunter:
  "We are going with a bet that we think is smart and we think we're getting a great number, especially at minus two and a half." ([05:13])

• Chad Millman:
  "The things that the Chargers are good at are the things that the Texans have struggled with." ([10:31])

• Simon Hunter:
  "Lamar is one of the few guys that just has not lived up to the hype and performance of the regular season in the playoffs." ([22:00])

• Simon Hunter:
  "This is a great number with Pittsburgh and everything like that, and my model backs it up." ([28:43])

Conclusion

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide a comprehensive and analytical approach to betting on NFL Wild Card Weekend, challenging conventional wisdom and offering strategic insights. Their detailed breakdown of each matchup, backed by statistics and personal expertise, equips listeners with valuable information to make informed betting decisions.

For more detailed discussions and future episodes, listeners are encouraged to tune into The Herd with Colin Cowherd on iHeartPodcasts and The Volume.

Disclaimer: Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly. bet365 is only available to individuals aged 21 or older in certain states.