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- [00:01]
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- [00:39]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode in which we review the faves fives picks we put into the contest, dissect why we left some games out, preview the early lines we already like for week 14. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [01:13]
Simon Hunter
Hello Chad. How we doing dude?
- [01:16]
Chad Millman
Chaos. Pure chaos for you and me in the final moments today before we submitted our picks this morning, we traded out three picks. I don't think we've traded out 60% of our picks in our history. That has to be the most in our history, including a very late change that worked out in our favor. We'll get to all of it. We are currently sweating the end of the Panthers and the Bucks. We have the Panthers at plus six and a half. It's in overtime. We will know more about our final record when that game ends. We have the Broncos at five and a half minus five and a half on Monday Night Football. Catch every episode of the favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites deposit10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary at bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or bets off in Iowa terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, so the games that we switched out, we had the Colts minus two and a half the very last second. Simon, like, I'm putting the picks in the app and you text me. Because we hadn't talked about the Jags somehow.
- [03:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [03:14]
Chad Millman
Which I feel like we both liked. So we put the Jags in at three and a half. We switched out the jets for the Panthers, so we had the jets plus two and a half. We put in the Panthers at plus six and a half. We're still waiting for the final gun on that one. And we switched out the Eagles at plus three and a half for the Bengals at minus three and a half.
- [03:34]
Simon Hunter
So that one's painful.
- [03:36]
Chad Millman
That one's painful. And I. I feel like we nailed our handicap on the Eagles the other day. And I don't. I don't know why we waffled on this. I think we got overwhelmed by Lamar and sort of the stats and. But I'm in love with the Eagles defense. They've been playing better and better. I think you might. I don't think you like them as much as I did, and there was great fear of Lamar. But let's start with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, I guess. I guess, like, we feel like we've been catching a falling knife all season with the Steelers. Is that. Is that how you felt? Betting them as dogs, fading them as favorites? We discussed it on the show earlier this week. We just felt like we were pressing our luck, I think a little bit, but I'll.
- [04:23]
Simon Hunter
I'll eat it. It just. I. I disrespected Russell Wilson too much. I. I really did not think he had this game in him. Honestly. I really did think this would be type of game where the Bengals would put up 30 and they would just roll offensively. And yeah, the Russell Wilson thing, I just. I did not. I'll be the first time I did not see coming. I mean, I think the key through for 400 yards. I mean, he started the game with a pick six and didn't even matter. Like, that's a legit vet. Seen it all, been there, done it, don't care. Just a great game. Like, it sucks. We're. We were on them. I go to Thanksgiving, I still like them at Thanksgiving. And then, you know, I get together with the guys Friday, so I'm in the house with a bunch of the runners, and a lot of the guys talking are like, yeah, I like Scentsy. And then I see Dr. Nick's luck rankings. I'm like, oh, shit. So that's another spot to take Scentsy. And then I read Evan's trend article and he had an amazing trend about dogs in this exact spot for his favorites in the spot where it's like historically great to take them and it's like, okay, this just lines up for. Since he's like I said the Pittsburgh is due to lose some game as a dog. I mean now they're five and oh, this season it's incredible. I mean they're, they're just so tough to get a read on. And you know, they were what, the most heavily bet vet public dog this week. Didn't matter. I mean they cash, everyone had them on the money line just like the Eagles and came through. So yeah, bad miss by me, bad reading. It's like brutal where it's like a game I forced in. But obviously seeing what happened with Atlanta, the Colts, I felt okay. Cause it was like those are the two you're trying to get. And I was just like fuck, dude, please don't make me put those two in.
- [06:08]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I guess the only thing I.
- [06:09]
Simon Hunter
Would have sucked but yeah, I would have liked.
- [06:11]
Chad Millman
I would have liked if we had considered the Steelers at three and a half right. Like we did.
- [06:15]
Simon Hunter
Right, right, right. But I never would have put them in a three and a half. Honestly it.
- [06:18]
Chad Millman
We were so locked in. And by the way, the Bucks just missed a field goal. So now the Panthers are getting the ball at the 40 yard line. 40 something yard line. As we continue to wait out the end of this game.
- [06:30]
Simon Hunter
But don't jinx it. Don't mention until the game's done.
- [06:32]
Chad Millman
Now, from now on, I'm not saying anything.
- [06:33]
Simon Hunter
I know just almost anything. From now on. It's only been mentioned until the game's over.
- [06:37]
Chad Millman
Nothing's being said.
- [06:38]
Simon Hunter
I know I need this, I need this win by Carolina.
- [06:41]
Chad Millman
So we, we didn't even consider it. Russell Wilson had 257 yards in the first half. I think we, we failed to consider just truly how bad this Bucks def. This Bengals defense is. And he had 414 for the game and there was.
- [07:00]
Simon Hunter
Is that a franchise record?
- [07:02]
Chad Millman
It's the most he's ever thrown for.
- [07:03]
Simon Hunter
I believe it. That's incredible.
- [07:06]
Chad Millman
To me there was one sequence that towards the end of the first half that nails why we bet the Steelers, why we don't bet the Bengals. And we lost our way. We should have been smarter. We learned our lesson. TJ The Bengals are driving. They're trading touchdowns back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. And it really feels like the Bengals can kind of do whatever they want. And Joe Burrow is just diming. TJ Watt forces a Joe Burrow fumble. Burrow was stepping up in the pocket, scrambling to the edge. Burrow chases him down from behind, knocks the ball loose. And the next series, this, the. And then later in the. Later in the. So that ends the drive right before the two minute warning. It's fourth and one for Cincinnati at about midfield. They're going for it on fourth down and they actually draw the Steelers offsides. But the refs, because the Bengals offensive line reacts, they actually call the false start in the Bengals. And you can clearly see in the replay that it was the Steelers who went offside and they were reacting. So now it's fourth and sixth. They punt the Steelers because they're veterans and they're good at this and they take advantage of mistakes and good calls. This is where the luck comes into play with a veteran team. All of a sudden they're down 20. They're up 24, 21. And then they kick. They take the ball in the start the second half, they're up 27, 21. The Bengals never get closer than three the rest of the game. Like, good team versus bad team. That's. That's the bottom line. And we were enamored with Joe Burrow. I think we were. I think at the end of it, it was the Joe Burrow stats more than anything.
- [08:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm shocked you didn't mention this, though. To me, the game flipped on this really simple possession in the first quarter was 14 to 7. Bengals, they get a stop and it's fourth and three on Pittsburgh's own 38. And fucking Tomlin went for it. I was like, holy shit. Did he really just do that? He knew that it was going to be a gunfight. He really did. He. I mean, we talk how lucky he is and how great of a coach he is. Like, those are the type of moments where he has so much equity. Who else can pull that off in that exact moment? It was crazy how ballsy it was and it shook that sense of defense because they realize, oh, you got to stop us on all four downs. This ain't going to be a three down type of day. So that, to me, kind of flipped the game because it was 14, 7 since he was about to get the ball back. And yeah, that. That was just an incredible move by Tomlin. Yeah, this Pittsburgh team, they're special. I really can't wait for them in the playoffs. Like, they're, they're this type of team that like we're going to get a good number on them. When they're playing whoever it is, the Ravens or the Bills or since it or the Chiefs, it's like they're just this really, really fun team right now where you just nailed it. It's like their offense showed up, but when they're the defense needed to make big plays. They made them like that play by J.J. watt. You know, even the second half they just, they adjusted really well. Where the Bengals, like you said, they're a bad team. Their defense had no adjustments to make. They just, they have no pieces on that team.
- [10:09]
Chad Millman
By the way, the Pittsburgh Steelers have now won nine games. So again, Mike Tomlin has gone over his win total and they will finish the season over.500, which means he has never finished below.500 in his career. I mean the guy is a freak and he is a Hall of Fame coach. He deserves all the accolades, all the credit. I cannot wait to talk about fading him next week as a big, big home favorite. We're going to talk about it later in the show. Hey, reminder. The Favorites podcast Watch Party is just weeks away. It's time to RSVP everybody. Thursday, December 12, the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia. We're doing free drinks live Q and A with me and Simon. Matt Mitchell's going to be there. We're going to hang out 6 to 8pm and then we're going to talk about the games. We're going to sweat some bets. Then we're going to Watch the Rams 49ers Thursday Night Football. To RSVP, check out the link in the podcast description page or the YouTube episode description. Simon and I are going to tweet it out as well. Space is limited. RSVPs are pouring in. Do not delay. All right. The next game. I wish we hadn't. We had considered this game but we loved this game. Thought we were so smart. Even Raybound loved this game too. He talked about it on Convince Me, Convinced me to take it on the show. Tennessee. We added a plus five and a half at Washington. So the game started at 1pm I don't know if the Titans actually knew that because they didn't show up until 2:30 and from 2:30 to the end of the game in the Chad Millman incredibly optimistic rose colored glasses view of the world. They totally won. And our handicap was spot on because they beat the Commanders from 2:30 until the end of the game 19 to 14. The bad news is the Commander showed up at 1:00 and scored four touchdowns and their first four drives. I mean that was apocalyptically bad for the Titans. They were dreadful.
- [12:18]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And again, we'll get to the next game. We were staring at the time.03 in the face and all three bets were looking like awful, awful bets. Like every single one was down by double digits.
- [12:28]
Chad Millman
They were dead freaking.
- [12:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I was just sitting there just like, holy. Even though we dodged all those other bullets, we are still just slipping into this mud right now. Like I was literally sitting there just like, man, I, I, I'm struggling this year obviously, but I was like, I am totally out of my depth right now. Like, I am totally misreading the board. How could I misread this one? So wrong. And yeah, it was just bad luck. Like now that we're like going back talking about this Tennessee game, I mean, how many stupid fumbles happened in that game?
- [12:57]
Chad Millman
Like, dude, I'll tell you exactly how many.
- [12:59]
Simon Hunter
Pollard's first fumble of the season. It was just like, okay, this is that game where everything's going to go wrong. And the flip side, Washington like a damn breaking. You gave them a little bit of a groove like that running game Robinson, like we talked about that sets up that whole offense when Robinson gets going.
- [13:15]
Chad Millman
Dude, let me answer your question. All right, you ready? The First Washington drive, three plays, 40 yard touchdown run. The second drive in the first quarter, 11 plays. Touchdown. Third drive in the first quarter after recovering a Titans fumble, the Tony Pollard fumble they threw to a wide open Terry McLaren. Of all the people that you're going to cover for the Commanders, you got to cover Terry McClaren. It's honest to God when I say the Titans didn't know the game started at 1:00. I don't even think they were on the field when he scored the touchdown. If you, you're going to go back and watch the All 22 and you're going to see everybody who is supposed to BE Covering Terry McLaurin is on the other half of the field. He is so wide open.
- [13:59]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, they're one of those plays where they're doing a zone and the guy points to him when he's running by.
- [14:04]
Chad Millman
Him and nobody, nobody responds.
- [14:06]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Where are you pointing to? There's no one there. So yeah, that was, that was awful.
- [14:10]
Chad Millman
If you look at the play by play, it's crazy because if you look at the play by play, normally it's like Commanders, Titans, Commanders, Titans or whoever. It's like Eagles, Ravens, Eagles, Ravens. Right this, there was no Titans section. It just went Commanders and Then commanders, because the Titans fumbled the kickoff and the Commander scored a touchdown. After that touchdown, Simon Washington had more plays, 25 than the Titans head yards. That's how bad it was. And it wasn't even. Here's the thing, it wasn't even Will Levis's fault at that point.
- [14:47]
Simon Hunter
No. Like we just said though, it's just a com. It's just a ton of bad luck for a team that is bad. So yeah, just again, I, I'm just sitting there in my couch, I'm just like questioning my whole life decision where I'm like, this week is going to be a total wash, but can we get to the glimmer of hope?
- [15:05]
Chad Millman
Well, get to the glimmer of hope because at this point, Simon, the Jets who we had taken out were actually kind of dominating, right?
- [15:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that was another one. You're just like, oh my God, did we mess up?
- [15:19]
Chad Millman
Yeah, because we had the jets at plus two and a half and they were taking a what, 21 to seven lead and we're just cruising. And so I'm like, are you? And. And the Colts actually at one point it looked like not only were we owing three to start the day, but the games we liked and taken out and had taken out were actually going to cover easily.
- [15:46]
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- [15:54]
Simon Hunter
Oh, oh, oh. O'Reilly Auto Parts.
- [16:01]
Chad Millman
We took out the Colts, we put in the Jacksonville Jaguars and tell me true. At plus three and a half, Trevor Lawrence was knocked out. Did you just stop paying attention to the game at this point?
- [16:12]
Simon Hunter
I mean, I raged for a good minute like a 10 year old where I was just like, like if that was Jalen Hurts, I'm. I'm sure Matt Mitchell feels the same way. If it was Josh Allen. A cheap shot like that on your star quarterback, it's like the closest thing to bringing me to tears as a grown man like that. And the military commercials, the guys coming home and surprising their kids, those are the two things.
- [16:30]
Chad Millman
Like those things get me every time.
- [16:32]
Simon Hunter
Every time. But that cheap shot, it's a reason we protect these quarterbacks because it's just like I can't stand it. Right. Even if he slid a little late, he was going down. That guy threw forms at his head.
- [16:43]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [16:44]
Simon Hunter
Like he, he took a shot to take him out. It was just so dirty. And the stupidest play in the NFL happens where the team retaliates and they throw an Offsetting penalty. So you don't even get rewarded for your QB just getting decapitated. It's just, I hate it. I hate it so much. So yeah, no, in that exact moment, my first thought was, well, if they drive and get a touchdown here, maybe our bet's not totally dead. Instead it went on to a run of a field goal, a missed field goal, and at one point they're down whatever it was 23 to 6. And it's just not just that.
- [17:15]
Chad Millman
Not just a field goal and a missed field goal. Mack Jones missed two wide open, wide open, wide open touchdowns. I, I was like, what is going on today?
- [17:31]
Simon Hunter
No, he's horrible.
- [17:32]
Chad Millman
At one point, you know, I, I bet with all my buddies and I'll, they'll send me their money and I'll bet for them for the season. And this has not been a great year for us. And so at one point a buddy texted me, he just said, he just said, man, because he follows in the app. He goes, man, rough day, but I still love you. And I just texted back, I'm like, we're not done yet. And a big exclamation point. And the Jags, if this is the movie, this is when we start our comeback. Because Mac Jones, this is not what we expected, but it's why you play the number and why we decided to put this game in. Are you ready? In the final two drives in the fourth quarter, we were down 23 to 6. The only way we cover is two touchdowns and at least one two point conversion. In these final two drives, Mac Jones accounted this. I went into the play by play and counted this. 13 of 17 for 129 yards, two touchdown passes, and on the second touchdown drive, a two point conversion. Yeah, for the game he was only 20 of 32 for 235. So basically 13 of his 20 completions happened in that run of two drives. Not what we expected, but we'll take it.
- [19:15]
Simon Hunter
No, it's just again, we always talk about you need a little bit of luck for what we do here and we've just been really unlucky this season. Just mainly about the kickers, like that kicker missing that field goal. In these type of games, when you have the backup coming in, you're usually not going to cover. It's just like you can't not have those points. Right? And just that does, that's a formula for you to lose those type of games. I mean that's what just happened to the Panthers, right? Panthers probably should have won that game if they had A kicker. And the same kind of thing goes here with this Jags team where if they had a kicker and Trevor Lawrence played a full game, they probably still win that game. Like, their defense played really well.
- [19:48]
Chad Millman
They were play. They were playing really well. Their defense was playing great. And even though they were losing early with Trevor, I felt like we're in this. Like, we got it. We got a pretty good shot here.
- [19:58]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And like, they kept stopping the red zone. Again, it was six nothing when he went out and his team was driving. But like you said, that's just. We played the number and thank God you checked your phone because we literally got the call. Just like you. I'm heading out to the book to go make some bets and get ready for the games. And I'm like, oh, my God, how did we not even talk about this team where it was like, literally my second biggest bet of the day with the Jaguars. But we always talk about the numbers, the key, and if it was three or two and a half, we don't play because we still have the hook in the contest. It's like we got to get the three and a half in there. And. Yeah, I don't know. Who you texted was Matt. Mitch. Whoever it was, they. They changed the Colts out, put in the Jaguars. And that flips us from being 1 and 3 right now to 2 and 2, brother.
- [20:42]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Too bad we didn't keep that theory with the Steelers and the Philadelphia Eagles. Otherwise we'd be having an entirely different conversation.
- [20:53]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's true.
- [20:55]
Chad Millman
But it all evens out. Like, in the end, we wouldn't have had the Jags and we wouldn't have had Carolina. We would have been with, you know, the Steelers and the Eagles and the jets and the Colts, and we'd be 2 and 2 and sitting on the Broncos on Monday night. You know what I mean?
- [21:12]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. We can't beat fate. We were. We were stuck two and two. No matter what we did, we were.
- [21:16]
Chad Millman
Going to be two and two no matter what.
- [21:17]
Simon Hunter
That's crazy.
- [21:18]
Chad Millman
There's no sliding doors here. We're just two and two. You miss. You mentioned the missing kickers. The kickers missing. Jesus Christ. Eddie Pinero. We had Carolina plus six and a half, and they dominated the first half. Like Baker was 7:16, 7 to 16 with a late first half pick that led to a field goal for the Panthers. But Eddie Pinero, he missed from 38. He missed from 45, squeaked one in, barely from 27 to end the half. And this was after we kind of got robbed by the refs on a touchdown who said Adam Thielen did not catch a ball that looked very cat caught in the first half or a touchdown. Like Bryce is getting better every week and he's elevating his game from like manager to straight baller. He is facing down blitzes, he's throwing dimes while on the run. Like he had nearly 200 yards passing in the first half. They lost that game. They didn't lose it because of Bryce. They lost it because their defense couldn't stop Bucky irving in the second half who finished the day with nearly 150 yards rushing and they fumbled in overtime while they were driving for the game winning field goal. So I feel like this Panthers team is finally the team that we thought they would be early in the year.
- [22:42]
Simon Hunter
Definitely in the evening. Defense, I mean they played really well. Like you said, they had the turnovers, they had sacks. A ton of pressure on Baker, but the kicker just, he ruined the whole game. Cause they should have been up a nine and a half and you don't. We're not here talking about Bucky Irvin. They could. When you're only down by three, you don't have to change anything you're doing offensively. You can lean on the run. If you're down 9, it's going to put more into Baker, which we wanted. Honestly. This is a, this was a really bad Baker game. Like when Baker's off, he is really off. He could not find like his picks were terrible. The one he threw incredibly late, the end of that first half like you're talking about and the one, the second half, I mean he put it right into a guy's chest after he pretty much had gotten injured the play before. So bad Baker game. Tampa found a way to win. Right? Like you just said, the little things went their way where they had the miss field goals on the Carolina side, then the fumble in overtime after they had missed the field goal. And yeah, it's, it's a huge game for them now. I mean we talked about they dropped those games to Atlanta, but there's still an outside chance they can seal this division. And anyone like me that's a sicko that really wanted Carolina win this game. They were like 40 to 1 to win this division before this game. If they would have won this, that would have dropped to like what, 15 to 1, 20 to 1, like it really would have jumped up because this would have been a huge win for them. And I'm so happy we haven't checked out on this team because It's. It's what, three straight weeks now we bet them and they keep coming through for us. So maybe we hop off, but they're clearly a different team right now and the books haven't caught up to it yet.
- [24:10]
Chad Millman
I listen a couple things on that. I don't know if we're going to hop off because the number next week for their game, which we'll talk about in week 14, is massive. Caroline has covered four straight. And you're right, like, we walked away from them because there was. We felt so badly betting them. They were not living up to what we believe there capabilities were based on our prognostication for the beginning of the year. So we couldn't conceivably bet them and feel good telling people to bet them. But they've been sneaking back the past month. We didn't choose them, I think the first time we bet them, but we liked them and then we did choose them. I think the past two or three weeks, people aren't paying attention. Like at one point they did an overhead shot of the stadium and it was pretty empty. And like I said to my. I said to my son, I'm like, God, it's so empty. Do people not know that the Panthers are balling right now and that Bryce Young could actually be a really good quarterback? And he's throwing accurate passes while getting chased and rolling out of the pocket and he's been amazing. He looks at me, he goes, I don't think that stadium's going to be full in your lifetime. I felt. Felt really bad for the Panthers because they deserve better. They're a fun team. I like their coach, their quarterback's playing well. Carolina, let's get on the bandwagon.
- [25:38]
Simon Hunter
I would say I don't feel bad for Caroline. They had a great role with Cam Newton. I mean, that 2015 year, what was that 15 one? They went to the super bowl. And obviously losing the super bowl is brutal. But yeah, they're. They had their time in the shot. I mean, they had. They sold out the stadium a little bit a long time ago. But you're right, like it's. It's not shocking when you see their stadium empty right now. They're just totally abandoned by their fan base.
- [26:00]
Chad Millman
People gotta get on the bandwagon. This team's coming around. We're gonna be talking about them a lot next year. This was my favorite thing. So, like, you know, we're regretful about the Steelers not putting them in. We're regretful about the Eagles and taking them out, but we're super glad that we put the Jags in. We're super glad that we put the Panthers in. We're super glad to be 2 and 2.
- [26:26]
Simon Hunter
You're not regretful about the Chargers, though. You love the Chargers on Tuesday, and then today you were totally off of them.
- [26:31]
Chad Millman
Yeah. You know what it was our foxhole.
- [26:33]
Simon Hunter
Or your exec decision, Right. It was one of foxhole.
- [26:36]
Chad Millman
And honestly, we keep doing this and I don't know why we. I need to do a better job of paying attention to my notes from earlier in the week.
- [26:43]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [26:43]
Chad Millman
Because we were so, like, so locked in on the Steelers, on the Eagles, on the Chargers. And I feel like when you and I are doing the handicapping, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, we're on it and we're good and we are getting. I think because, like, there have been some unlucky bounces for us and maybe some bad handicaps, and we got behind the eight ball early in the year. I think we're leaning too much into what we're hearing and some trends and not focused on what we know and when we have clarity. And I think we're. We're. We're getting antsy later in the week. And I, like, I still think it's.
- [27:25]
Simon Hunter
Just been bad luck. I mean, like we just said, we've been capping the good games, but the Chargers one just. It's just brutal because exactly what we talked about happened where we just said that's. That their style of defense is the one that gives huge problems to Kirk Cousins. He threw fucking, what, four interceptions today. He was brutal.
- [27:41]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I guess my, My issue with that was I was really worri that the. They were so injured on defense and J.K. dobbins was out and they're running well, no charges.
- [27:54]
Simon Hunter
Offense looked different without them. Right. They only put up 10 points today without that pick six.
- [27:59]
Chad Millman
I was just. That was my concern is like, I, I got antsy about sort of all of the injuries. I think DJ Reed speaks for all of us. Did you see what he did after the jets lost to the Seahawks? Sent out a tweet, tagged the NFL officials. Y'all fucking suck. You should be ashamed of yourselves. I think it's going to cost him. Yeah, but these games are excruciating. I honestly, like, it's so frustrating to watch every. There's got to be a study about. Between the penalties and the injuries, there must be 30 to 40% of the game is stopped be in relation to the plays because of all the penalties and the injuries. It's just excruciating to watch these games. One more thing for you, Nick Westbrook. Aquina, who played football at the playoff bound Indiana University playing for the Hoosiers, 20 catches this year, eight touchdowns including four touchdowns in the past three games.
- [29:07]
Simon Hunter
That's crazy, Scott.
- [29:09]
Chad Millman
I mean balling out for the Tennessee Titans, was it showing up at 1:00 when everyone else is showing up at 2:30?
- [29:15]
Simon Hunter
I think I saw. Was it Valdez Scanling there? I think it's someone for New Orleans who just got traded to him. He has four touchdowns in like four straight games.
- [29:23]
Chad Millman
That's my other note. Marquez Valdez Scanling has four touchdowns in four games with the six.
- [29:27]
Simon Hunter
That is so bizarre.
- [29:28]
Chad Millman
All right, let's talk about some Week 14 games. We talked about Carolina, Carolina before we came on air. So I don't know if the line has moved. Was a 13 point underdog at Philadelphia.
- [29:43]
Simon Hunter
Still 13? Yeah, they just said in our chat still 13. So yeah, it's. How do we not bet it? That's. That, that is incredibly high. But this is one that I could bet it now and I wouldn't be shocked if I moved off this position right now. If once I read in more into it. But because Carolina is. I don't know how they stop Saquon that, I mean we just saw what happened today with Bucky Irving and that's like, I mean, Saquon again today. That's a really good run defense in the Ravens. I think he ran for over 100 yards today. Like he really is out of this, playing out of this world right now. This Eagles team is just so dominant, not just offensively. I mean defensively they held a really great offense in the Ravens in check today. So yeah, they're complete team. So I get why they've opened this at 13. But I think me and you both agree this feels like too many points to open with.
- [30:32]
Chad Millman
It does. I do worry about, I do worry about the line of scrimmage and the Eagles just dominating. Yeah, they're so freaking good defensively and.
- [30:45]
Simon Hunter
Threes and sevens that, that to me is the fear with these type of games where it's like If Carolina kicks three field goals and the Eagles get three touchdowns and it's 21 9. Yeah, we know that it could just be a steamroll in the second half. That that's definitely a fear.
- [30:58]
Chad Millman
Like you're mentioning the other game I wanted to touch on that we talked about earlier. Cleveland is a six and a half point underdog at Pittsburgh. So a couple of things here, one as good as Tomlin is as a dog, he is as bad as a favorite. This is a very good defense for the Browns going into Pittsburgh. We just had this game. We expect these games to be relatively close and it will be. I expect Jameis to stink against the Broncos, which means he will come back and be good against the Steelers. So I haven't bet it yet, but that feels like a line. We want to take the Browns.
- [31:48]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, but I'm going to wait just, just. Cause we're, we're heavy on the Broncos here. Like I, I'm hoping for a double digit. We just roll Broncos game, but we know it's going to be a sweat. Probably come down to last possession, get the COVID But if it is a. A game, they blow, they roll them.
- [32:04]
Chad Millman
It'S going to go.
- [32:05]
Simon Hunter
And we just saw Pittsburgh have the best game of the year. I mean, that was incredible how good they were offensively. So be patient. This. They should, they should. They should give us a seven right now. Like Chad just said though, if you want to grab it early before it moves, you know, there's two books or. Yeah, two really public books that should be legal in your state that have six and a half right now. If you want to grab it now, go ahead. But this, this to me should get up to seven.
- [32:30]
Chad Millman
LA Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs. Chargers are four and a half.
- [32:35]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, another interesting number. They opened to that high. Like that's feels like it's only going to come down. Right. I can't see getting any higher than that. This is a really good Chargers team. I mean, they're. What, they have eight wins now. They, they might have eight wins at this point. So yeah, this, this Steve's team, you know, they played early in the year. The Chargers had literally no one. Their whole team was banged up at that point. And me and you took them, I think at plus seven and a half, it landed right in the seven. Right. We got that cover and by kickoff it had gone down to six and a half. So most people unfortunately didn't get the COVID of this Chargers team. So, you know, that just shows how much healthier this Chargers team is. Now on the flip side of this Chiefs team, I think public perception is just, yeah, they're going to win, but they're not going to cover. So that's the fear. Chad is like me and you have just been fading this Chiefs team basically every week. And it's been really good to us. I don't mind going at it again because it's four and a half. I'm Going to grab that now. But if it's three and a half come contest time, I don't know if we forced that one in because it's like. It feels like this should be the number to me feels right. Is four here. Four, Four and a half. I'll take the value of four and a half right now. Bet three, six, five.
- [33:48]
Chad Millman
How are the Chiefs tackles going to protect Patrick Mahomes? We saw what they did against the Raiders. Could not do it and nothing is going to change. And maybe DJ Humphrey gets back, but does that make that big of a difference? I don't know. I'm willing to bet the four and a half that it doesn't. Right now it won't be a full unit. It'll be smaller just to get the four and a half. But it is interesting to me.
- [34:17]
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- [34:46]
Chad Millman
Two more games that are interesting to me. You ready? Dallas plus five and a half at home. I think it's on Monday night versus the Bengals.
- [35:00]
Simon Hunter
I agree with you. At first glance it's like, yeah, this, this Bengals defense, who can they stop? The answer might be Cooper Rush.
- [35:08]
Chad Millman
I know, but it's the right number. Like I think it's inflated. It's probably inflated by. It is at least a point and a half.
- [35:20]
Simon Hunter
I just love that your eyes immediately went to that game. Yeah, it's. It's a giant home dog against a defense that can't stop anyone. I agree. Take. Take the six. This is definitely going to come down.
- [35:29]
Chad Millman
Is it at six? Are you seeing six?
- [35:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I'm bet. 365. It's. It's at six.
- [35:34]
Chad Millman
Wow. Then. Then you have to take it. What am I missing?
- [35:39]
Simon Hunter
I'm shocked you didn't mention the. Your Bears.
- [35:43]
Chad Millman
Let's see what so much to say about the bears.
- [35:45]
Simon Hunter
They're still six plus six and a half minus 1 20. I mean we love a good coaches fired team. Especially a team where apparently your whole team was in the locker room telling this guy he's a fucking idiot after that game. I don't know if you obviously heard all the rumors, but this was huge. An organization has a Fire to coach midseason. Is it true? It's 100 years. They have never done it.
- [36:06]
Chad Millman
They've never done it, dude.
- [36:08]
Simon Hunter
Honestly, six and a half grab.
- [36:10]
Chad Millman
I have, I have anecdotes and insight from this. If they're playing the Niners, by the way, on the road, apparently, and I haven't been able to confirm this, but it's not libelous, so I'm happy to say it. The Bears had Eber fluss do the 9am press conference post game the day after they lost, as if he was still going to be there. And then they fired him at 11 o'clock. So of course, like I'm texting with my buddies and the first thing someone responds is clearly time management is a systemic issue within the organization. Number one. Number two, the Instagram post after they announced the firing, the first comment for the Bears Instagram feed was from a fan who said, do we get to keep the time out or does Ebraflusse get to take that with him? Which was amazing. But apparently this is sourced by my father who told me this story yesterday morning when I call him on Saturdays when I'm walking the dog that the. One of the reasons for the timing issue is that the Bears, who have never fired a coach in the middle of the season because they're so freaking cheap, they don't want to have to hire someone new. They had to get the permission of Virginia McCaskey and she either was not awake or was not available before the press conference. And so then it happened after the press conference when they could finally get Virginia Caskey to sign off on firing him midseason.
- [37:51]
Simon Hunter
I wonder how many more, how many new Virginias are being born nowadays? I feel like that's an old, old name. Not too much.
- [37:57]
Chad Millman
She's 100 years old.
- [37:58]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Yeah. Let's get the ones that jump out to me right away. Chad, I would love to hear your view on this. Miami. I feel like Tua, even last week that loss wasn't on him against Green Bay. That was kind of like their whole team sucked. They're now at home against this jets team that that was their best shot. Like Rogers looked actually good in that game. He was moving well. And then whatever it is, maybe it's his age, he just falls off this cliff where he misses these throws or he just like, I mean, you know, he missed a touchdown. The next play he throws a pick. Like it's just been that type of season for him. You can still get six and a half right now in Miami.
- [38:37]
Chad Millman
That's just six and a half.
- [38:38]
Simon Hunter
That's a line that jumps out. To me, it's all that's come down.
- [38:40]
Chad Millman
By the way, before we went on air, that was at 7. That's why I didn't say it. That's why I didn't flag it, is because it was at seven.
- [38:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Not shocking the professionals. I mean, we got sucked in last week. You saw. I mean, Evan talked about it. Since they had this new head coach, they've been a favorite every week. Right. Even when they're a dog. The line has moved basically every week, them being a favorite. And they've covered what, that one game against Houston and that's it. Every other one, they're just getting ruined. So I'm so happy we didn't just force that one back in because that was a game. You're right. When they were up, I was like, how did we switch them out? Because I had. I did bet two and a half. I did bet their money line when they were a big dog. But luckily the spidey senses went off with us and we were just like, nah, nah, this number's moved too much. They suck. I'm not. I feel like I'm gonna try to hold my ground this week whether. Where it's like, this is a good matchup for this Miami team and this every game for them is a playoff game. Miami. But, like, this is really a game where we should see that they are a better team than the Jets. That one jumps out. Would love to hear your view on this Green Bay game.
- [39:48]
Chad Millman
I flagged it. I wrote it down. Green Bay plus four at Detroit Thursday night. Detroit's got 18 people on the defensive side of the ball that are on the injury list right now. Yeah, I don't know how you bet on Detroit. This just feels like a game. Obviously, they need it. Like, Minnesota is right behind them. Philadelphia is right behind them. They cannot afford to lose any ground at all if they want to be able to stay in Detroit throughout the playoffs. But, man, this team is struggling and they. They. They should have won that game 42 to nothing. They could not score in the red zone. They kicked field goals, they fumbled. You know, it's. It's so frustrating because we love the Lions in that game and they really dominated. But in the second half, every other play, someone got injured. And if not for Ibrah Fluss not understanding the, you know, rules of clock management, the Bears might win that game because the Lions didn't have anybody left. So I feel like the packers are confident it's A great spot for them. I lean packers on Thursday night at four.
- [41:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I mean it's down to three and a half every book now. So it's like I'd still take the.
- [41:08]
Chad Millman
Three and a half. I'm getting the hook and I. To me it's about me too.
- [41:11]
Simon Hunter
It's just one that jumped out to me right away because it's like, why is this three and a half? Because I totally agree with everything you just said. This. This is not the same Detroit team as even just two weeks ago. Like these injuries have just piled up and it's a lot of key starters. It's not just special teams guys. These are like, okay, you're dn, you're starting linebacker, starting cornerback, you're starting safety. It's like, oh my God, man. Like this is.
- [41:32]
Chad Millman
They're signing Jamal Adams to the practice squad. That's how terrifying bad it is right now for them.
- [41:38]
Simon Hunter
So that I'm with you, Chad. When that jumps out where it's like I'm going to take that three and a half now while it's still there. Because this line that's going to dip the moves enough. We'll come on their side. Like I'd ra. I'd much rather be under trade, honestly than Green Bay in this spot. Especially if he gets a two and a half. Cause like me and Chad have experienced it. It's. It's not fun betting against Detroit. Like they're just such a high powered offense. They're really one of those few teams that only. They beat themselves like that Bears game. I mean you talk about they beat themselves there like that opening half. If, if any one of those field goals is a touchdown, they cover the nine and a half. That was the only reason they didn't cover is because they kicked four field goals. They missed the fifth one so.
- [42:18]
Chad Millman
And stumbled on the five yard line.
- [42:20]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And the fumble on the fire. So that. That's when they jumped out. Interesting game jumps out. Another one. Kirk Cousins on the road in Minnesota. Are we getting lazy here? We gonna play the revenge factor this man?
- [42:32]
Chad Millman
It's not.
- [42:33]
Simon Hunter
I wouldn't play the reaction towards this old team.
- [42:36]
Chad Millman
To me I looked at that one too and it felt a lit. You say lazy. I was gonna say facile, but it's the same thing.
- [42:44]
Simon Hunter
Like it just feel like it's gonna Laz. Oh, Kirk plus four and a half dog against his old team.
- [42:50]
Chad Millman
It's. To me it's not about that. It's about. Look, the Vikings defense has not been as good.
- [42:58]
Simon Hunter
It's plus six at one. I can't say the name of the book. It's plus six right now. One book.
- [43:04]
Chad Millman
If it's plus six, you got to take it. Like, to me, we got on air, it was a plus five. And I thought that was like two.
- [43:11]
Simon Hunter
Books plus four and a half or plus five. But this one book, one very public book, is plus six right now. That's. That's too much respect for the Minnesota Vikings.
- [43:20]
Chad Millman
Yes, Minnesota Vikings. So I agree with you.
- [43:28]
Simon Hunter
And then just a game that caught my eye right away, Buffalo minus three and a half against LA Rams. I have lost a small house this year, betting this Rams team at home as a dog in this exact spot. I mean, the Green Bay game, the Eagles game. This. I'm not. I can't get sucked during it once again, can I? Like, this is literally. I keep thinking this is the exact spot this Rams team covers. And I think we're kind of figuring out now where it's like, no, they're good against really bad teams and they just get rolled by talented good teams. So I am fighting the demons right now and I'm going to try to take this Buffalo team at minus three and a half just in case they roll tonight. And this goes up to four. Four and a half.
- [44:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah. They're not even that good against bad teams. They barely beat the Saints today. There's something about. They are weirdly ineffective for lengthy moments of the game. They were losing six nothing in the first half. They had a great opening drive, then kind of disappeared. Then they scored again like they did not have any sustained momentum or build on their foundational drives at all.
- [44:42]
Simon Hunter
I love our listeners. Atlanta's already down to five and a half of that book I was talking about. I just watched it move so the best. You sons of bitches. I was really going to try to hit that myself. So. Already gone.
- [44:51]
Chad Millman
This is what we do. We give and we give and we give. A lot of games on the board that we've already hit on. So it'll be interesting to see where we land. Simon, I'm begging us. Let's find some clarity. Let's make sure we are looking at our notes on Sunday. Somebody, Matt, Mitchell, Gifford. Gifford. When we get off, Convince Me. Freaking remind me, Chad, look at your notes from Tuesday and Thursday. Don't get caught up in the moment. Whatever just happened on Convince Me. Have clarity. Be good handicappers, all of us. That goes for all of us. I want us all to do it. That's the show. We're two and two. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get 150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or 1-800- bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Catch our next episode live Tuesday at 1:30pm Eastern on Action Network's YouTube channel. We'll cover the whole board. We'll announce our week 13 contest win winner. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate Reviews Subscribe Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback as a gift until Tuesday. Love you. Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [46:54]
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