Podcast Summary: "The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 13" on The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
• Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
• Episode: The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 13
• Release Date: December 2, 2024
• Description: A detailed exploration of the top sports stories of the day, focusing on NFL betting insights and analysis.

Introduction and Context

In this episode of "The Favorites," hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve into their Week 13 NFL betting strategies, presenting a comprehensive review of their picks, the rationale behind their decisions to include or exclude certain games, and a preview of their favored lines for Week 14. The discussion is candid, highlighting moments of both success and regret, providing listeners with an authentic glimpse into the complexities of sports betting.

Recap of Week 13 Picks

Significant Changes and Strategic Shifts

At the outset, Chad and Simon reveal that they made unprecedented changes to their betting picks for Week 13, swapping out 60% of their original selections. This level of adjustment underscores the volatile nature of NFL betting and the hosts' commitment to accuracy.

• Chad Millman (00:38): "We traded out three picks. I don't think we've traded out 60% of our picks in our history. That has to be the most in our history..."

• Simon Hunter (01:15): "Hello Chad. How we doing dude?"

Specific Pick Adjustments

The hosts detail the specific changes they made:

• Colts (-2.5) were replaced with the Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5).
• Jets (+2.5) were swapped out for the Carolina Panthers (+6.5), pending final game results.
• Eagles (+3.5) were exchanged for the Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5).

Chad Millman (03:34): "We put in the Panthers at plus six and a half. We're still waiting for the final gun on that one."

Simon Hunter (03:35): "So that one's painful."

Current Standings and Ongoing Bets

Currently, Chad and Simon are evaluating the outcomes of their bets:

• Panthers are in overtime against the Bucks with their final record pending.
• Broncos (-5.5) are set to play on Monday Night Football.

Chad Millman (04:23): "We'll get to all of it. We are currently sweating the end of the Panthers and the Bucks."

Analysis of Key Games

Steelers vs. Bengals

The discussion centers on the unexpected performance of the Steelers against the Bengals, where the Steelers, despite being considered a "falling knife," managed to secure a win.

Simon Hunter (04:23): "I really did not think he had this game in him. Honestly. I really did think this would be type of game where the Bengals would put up 30 and they would just roll offensively."

The hosts express regret over underestimating Russell Wilson and missing key defensive plays that led to the Bengals' loss.

Chad Millman (07:01): "That's the most he's ever thrown for."

They highlight a pivotal moment where a controversial penalty call favored the Steelers, emphasizing the role of veteran experience in clutch situations.

Simon Hunter (08:43): "This is where the luck comes into play with a veteran team."

Panthers vs. Bucks

The Panthers' narrow victory over the Bucks is dissected, focusing on missed field goals and pivotal defensive plays.

Simon Hunter (21:11): "We were stuck two and two. No matter what we did, we were going to be two and two."

Chad commends the Panthers' defense and quarterback Bryce Young, suggesting the team is evolving positively.

Chad Millman (22:41): "This is what a Panthers team is finally the team that we thought they would be early in the year."

Tennessee vs. Washington

The Titans' struggles against the Commanders are analyzed, pointing out poor timing and defensive lapses.

Chad Millman (12:29): "Pollard's first fumble of the season. It was just like, okay, this is that game where everything's going to go wrong."

Simon criticizes the Titans' defensive coverage, leading to easy touchdowns for Washington.

Simon Hunter (14:05): "Terry McLaurin is on the other half of the field. He is so wide open."

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Carolina Panthers

Despite initial skepticism, the Jaguars' late-game comeback is celebrated, turning a precarious situation into a favorable outcome.

Chad Millman (19:15): "In the final two drives in the fourth quarter, we were down 23 to 6... Not what we expected, but we'll take it."

Simon underscores the importance of luck and defensive resilience in this victory.

Simon Hunter (19:47): "We always talk about you need a little bit of luck for what we do here and we've just been really unlucky this season."

Discussion of Betting Strategies and Mistakes

Missed Opportunities and Regrets

Chad and Simon candidly discuss their missteps, including overconfidence in certain teams and the impact of unforeseen game dynamics.

Simon Hunter (12:17): "How could I misread this one? So wrong."

They reflect on the importance of sticking to their notes and maintaining focus despite early setbacks.

Chad Millman (44:51): "This is what we do. We give and we give and we give."

The Role of Luck and External Factors

The hosts emphasize how luck and uncontrollable factors like injuries and penalties significantly influence betting outcomes.

Simon Hunter (10:08): "Their defense had no adjustments to make. They just, they have no pieces on that team."

Chad Millman (12:29): "They have only put up 10 points today without that pick six."

Learning from Mistakes

Both hosts acknowledge the need to refine their betting strategies, focusing on better adherence to their analysis and resisting the urge to chase losses.

Chad Millman (26:26): "We're super glad to put the Jags in. We're super glad to put the Panthers in. We're super glad to be 2 and 2."

Simon Hunter (27:25): "It's just been bad luck. I mean like we just said, we've been capping the good games, but the Chargers one just."

Upcoming Week 14 Previews

Highlighted Games and Lines

Chad and Simon preview several key matchups for Week 14, sharing their insights and recommendations based on current team performances and betting lines.

1. Philadelphia vs. Carolina Panthers

   • Line: Panthers +13
   • Chad Millman (29:42): "How do we not bet it? That's. That's incredibly high."
   • Simon Hunter (30:32): "This is not the same Detroit team as even just two weeks ago."

2. Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

   • Line: Steelers -6.5
   • Simon Hunter (31:48): "I'm going to wait just, just."

3. LA Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

   • Lines: Chargers -4.5
   • Chad Millman (32:30): "How are the Chiefs tackles going to protect Patrick Mahomes?"

4. Dallas vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

   • Line: Dallas +5.5
   • Simon Hunter (35:28): "I agree. Take the six. This is definitely going to come down."

5. Green Bay vs. Detroit Lions

   • Line: Packers -3.5
   • Chad Millman (41:03): "I lean packers on Thursday night at four."
   • Simon Hunter (41:07): "It's just one that jumped out to me right away."

6. Buffalo vs. LA Rams

   • Line: Buffalo -3.5
   • Simon Hunter (41:31): "I have lost a small house this year, betting this Rams team at home."

Strategic Recommendations

• Take the Packers: Despite Detroit's injuries, the Packers are favored by 3.5 points, with both hosts aligning on this pick.

  Chad Millman (43:11): "I'm getting the hook and I. To me it's about me too."

• Bet on the Chargers and Chiefs: Acknowledging previous losses, both hosts express willingness to bet on the Chargers (-4.5) and Chiefs (-4.5), anticipating favorable outcomes.

  Simon Hunter (35:28): "Take the six. This is definitely going to come down."

Conclusion and Takeaways

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter conclude the episode with a reflection on their current 2-2 betting record for the season. They emphasize the importance of learning from past mistakes, maintaining discipline in their betting strategies, and staying focused amidst the unpredictability of NFL games.

Chad Millman (44:51): "Let's find some clarity. Let's make sure we are looking at our notes on Sunday."

They also promote upcoming podcast events and encourage listeners to engage with their content through YouTube and other platforms.

Final Remarks (46:53): The episode closes with a brief advertisement, reiterating Grainger's services, which is outside the scope of the main content and thus not covered in detail in this summary.

Notable Quotes

• Chad Millman (00:38): "We traded out three picks. I don't think we've traded out 60% of our picks in our history."

• Simon Hunter (03:35): "So that one's painful."

• Simon Hunter (08:43): "This is where the luck comes into play with a veteran team."

• Chad Millman (07:01): "That's the most he's ever thrown for."

• Simon Hunter (19:47): "We always talk about you need a little bit of luck for what we do here and we've just been really unlucky this season."

• Chad Millman (26:26): "We're super glad to be 2 and 2."

• Chad Millman (43:11): "I'm getting the hook and I. To me it's about me too."

Final Thoughts

This episode of "The Favorites" offers a transparent and in-depth look into the challenges and triumphs of NFL betting. Chad and Simon's honest evaluations, coupled with their strategic insights, provide valuable lessons for both novice and seasoned bettors. Their commitment to refining their approach despite setbacks underscores the dynamic nature of sports betting and the continuous learning it entails.

Disclaimer: This summary is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice. Always gamble responsibly.