The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 14

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 14"

Release Date: December 9, 2024
Host/Authors: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter from The Action Network, presented by bet365

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Introduction

In this episode of The Favorites, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve deep into their NFL Week 14 betting strategies, discussing their five key picks, analyzing game outcomes, and previewing upcoming matches. The conversation offers invaluable insights for sports bettors, highlighting their decision-making processes, successes, and areas for improvement.

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1. Overview of Weekly Picks

Chad and Simon begin by recapping the five NFL games they selected for Week 14, outlining their initial bets and the rationale behind each choice:

• Vikings (-5.5): Chad explains their confidence in the Vikings’ performance.
• Dolphins (-5.5): They anticipated strong offensive play from the Dolphins.
• Browns (+6.5): Positioned as underdogs, they saw potential in Cleveland’s resilience.
• Bears (+3.5): Despite uncertainties, they believed in the Bears covering the spread.
• Kansas City (-4.5): A strong contender bolstered their confidence in backing the Chiefs.

Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter [02:15]: "This is our Sunday night episode in which we review faves. Five picks we put into the contest, dissect why we left some games out, preview the early lines we already like for week 15."

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2. Detailed Game Analysis

a. Vikings vs. [Opponent]

The Vikings’ performance exceeded expectations, securing a decisive victory.

Notable Quote:
Jared Goff [05:18]: "Yeah, more so frustrating. The Vikings defense where I feel like they just totally no-showed on us... their offense was being outgained by like 150 yards. Right. The Vikings."

b. Browns vs. Steelers

A rollercoaster game where the Browns initially trailed but made a strong comeback, only to falter in the final minutes due to crucial mistakes.

Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter [14:15]: "I want to set it up because a lot of things happened. Like obviously Dustin Hopkins, he misses two field goals..."

c. Bears vs. 49ers

Despite a promising start, the Bears struggled against the 49ers’ formidable defense, leading to a disappointing outcome.

Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter [31:25]: "The Bears had five punts in the first half... The Niners had 320. I'm with you. I feel like at this point I've seen enough out of Caleb."

d. Dolphins vs. Jets

A tightly contested game where the Dolphins managed to cover the spread despite challenges in the red zone.

Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter [25:16]: "They forgot how to score in the red zone. But you know what? At the end of the day worked out for us."

e. Additional Picks

They briefly touch upon other games such as Carolina vs. Buffalo, Seattle vs. Green Bay, Houston vs. Minnesota, and Indianapolis vs. Denver, providing quick insights and highlighting line movements that affected their betting strategies.

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3. Betting Strategies and Line Movements

Chad and Simon discuss the intricacies of betting lines, emphasizing the importance of understanding line movements and professional money influences. They analyze how early bets and shifting lines impacted their decisions, citing specific examples from Week 14.

Notable Quote:
Jared Goff [44:00]: "Early professional money on Miami. That's another very confusing line, Jay. I agree."

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4. Reflections on Betting Outcomes

Reflecting on their Week 14 performance, Chad and Simon acknowledge the two successful picks and two misses, offering honest assessments of their strategies and outcomes.

Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter [09:04]: "Yeah. Obviously didn't matter for this matchup, but there's a game coming up where it did, so."

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5. Preview of Upcoming Week 15

Looking ahead, Chad and Simon provide a sneak peek into their upcoming Week 15 picks, discussing potential game-line shifts and strategies to optimize future betting success.

Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter [43:21]: "See how sharp I am. Like I'm coming out here on the early lines and like I'm saying which way the lines which we should be doing here."

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6. Audience Engagement and Promotions

While the episode primarily focuses on NFL betting, Chad and Simon also mention upcoming live events and promotions, encouraging listeners to engage with their content and participate in upcoming shows.

Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter [02:49]: "Process of the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365... Catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube."

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Conclusion

Chad Millman and Simon Hunter's in-depth analysis of NFL Week 14 betting outcomes provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of their strategies, successes, and lessons learned. As they prepare for Week 15, their reflections offer valuable takeaways for both novice and seasoned sports bettors.

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Key Takeaways:

• Strategic Betting: Understanding line movements and professional money is crucial for successful betting.
• Game Analysis: Comprehensive analysis of team performances, including unexpected outcomes and pivotal moments, can inform future betting decisions.
• Adaptability: Flexibility in adjusting bets based on real-time game developments and line shifts enhances betting strategies.
• Future Insights: Preparing for upcoming weeks involves anticipating changes and leveraging past experiences for better decision-making.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Simon Hunter [02:15]: "This is our Sunday night episode in which we review faves. Five picks we put into the contest, dissect why we left some games out, preview the early lines we already like for week 15."

• Jared Goff [05:18]: "Yeah, more so frustrating. The Vikings defense where I feel like they just totally no-showed on us..."

• Simon Hunter [14:15]: "I want to set it up because a lot of things happened. Like obviously Dustin Hopkins, he misses two field goals..."

• Simon Hunter [31:25]: "The Bears had five punts in the first half... The Niners had 320. I'm with you."

• Simon Hunter [25:16]: "They forgot how to score in the red zone. But you know what? At the end of the day worked out for us."

• Jared Goff [44:00]: "Early professional money on Miami. That's another very confusing line, Jay. I agree."

• Simon Hunter [09:04]: "Yeah. Obviously didn't matter for this matchup, but there's a game coming up where it did, so."

• Simon Hunter [43:21]: "See how sharp I am. Like I'm coming out here on the early lines and like I'm saying which way the lines which we should be doing here."

---

Final Thoughts

The Favorites podcast episode offers a thorough exploration of NFL Week 14 betting, blending expert analysis with candid reflections. Chad and Simon's transparent discussions on their bets' outcomes and strategies provide listeners with actionable insights and a deeper understanding of the sports betting landscape.

Transcript

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[Simon Hunter]

Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode in which we review faves. Five picks we put into the contest, dissect why we left some games out, preview the early lines we already like for week 15 I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.

[Jared Goff]

Hello Chad. How we doing brother?

[Simon Hunter]

I feel pretty good actually. You know, I feel like last week it was pure chaos before we submitted our picks. This week we didn't change a thing and in the fourth quarter of the early games in which we had three games, I was wishing we had because everything we believed about the games that we liked was not true at all through three quarters and then went almost exactly as we expected. In the fourth quarter we will explain we had submitted the Vikings minus five and a half, the Dolphins minus five and a half, the Browns plus six and a half and the Bears plus three and a half. For the day we are two and two. We have Kansas City minus four and a half tonight in the contest. They will of course be without lad McConkey already out already without JK Dobbins. Catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or 1-800- bets off in Iowa terms conditions restrictions apply. Let's start with the game we love the most this week. The Vikings were my exact decision. They were your best bet on convince me. This morning we had them at five and a half in the contest. The final score was 42 to 21. Was tied at 21 heading into the fourth quarter which was very frustrating. If you were a better watching this game, did you feel frustrated as well in that moment?

[Jared Goff]

Yeah, more so frustrating. The Vikings defense where I feel like they just totally no showed on us like in that game there was a bunch of opportunities on fourth downs for them to get stops and they kept converting and then getting touchdowns off those drives and it was just like man, their their defense can't get a stop and then yeah, their offense I think at one point was being outgained by like 150 yards. Right. The Vikings. So, yeah, I'm right there with you. Chad was not feeling good midway through that third quarter.

[Simon Hunter]

We like this game a lot for two reasons. You just touched on both of them. We liked Brian Flores and his defense against Kirk Cousins, and it was very ineffective. To your point.

[Jared Goff]

I'll back it up at that point.

[Simon Hunter]

At. At that point through the three quarters, one sack of Kirk Cousins, who we thought would be hounded and throw the game away as he has done the past few weeks. The Falcons were 7 of 13 on third downs in the game. They ran 70 plays, averaged 7.1 yards per play, and Cousins threw for nearly 350 yards. He did throw two picks. One of those did lead to the vikings going up 42, 21. It seemed like Tyler Algiers was doing whatever he wanted against a defense that we felt ranked really well, not felt statistically. You could see they rank really well against the run. They rank really well against inside runs, and Algiers was destroying them. They were aggressive and running up the middle. It made Brian Flores and his defense look very ineffective. It was very upsetting.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah. And I guess we've seen as the season gone along here, there, obviously teams have started to figure them out a little bit.

[Simon Hunter]

Right.

[Jared Goff]

I think that's fair to say at this point because we've had a couple weeks in a row here where they've given up a lot of points, but they obviously get key stops because they've been incredible in these one score games this season. But yeah, that game totally flipped on its head just because of all the insane deep throws from Sam Darnold that were just, you know, I don't want to call them 50, 50 balls, but they were really balls. Yeah, right.

[Simon Hunter]

Like, look, the, the. The. The. I said we had two reasons we love this game. One was Brian Flores defense against Kirk Cousins. The second was Sam Darnold. Like he's been. He's been dealing the past several weeks.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And we felt like he was on an upswing, like he had had a little bit of a slump. We thought he was coming back down to earth. And whatever they did, they figured something out and he's been incredibly effective. Jordan Addison, obviously being. And a very good number two receiver right now, had three touchdowns today. Darnold today was the difference. 22, 28, 3, 47, 5 touchdowns, 3 to Jordan Addison, 2 to Justin Jefferson. And by the way, this was while being constantly pressured by the Falcons. The Falcons had 10 sacks as of two weeks ago. They have nine the past two weeks. They have four this week, five last week. I don't know why all of a sudden they're getting after the quarterback, but one of the reasons we like this game is we didn't think they'd pressure Darnold. Instead, Darnold was brilliant against the pressure. Impressive.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah. And just at the end of the day, another day of unhappy. We doubted Kirk and faded Kirk. It was like me and you definitely. Wait, a little bit of like, has this number moved too much?

[Simon Hunter]

Are.

[Jared Goff]

Are we sure we want to bet this? Because, you know, at one point it was down to four and a half. Like you said. The reason we didn't make any moves today was because if we had, this would have been a six and a half number.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Jared Goff]

Obviously didn't matter for this matchup, but there's a game coming up where it did, so.

[Simon Hunter]

Oh, yeah.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah. Happy we didn't make a move obviously on this one. Gave it out at six. I bet it all even up to six and a half at one point. It was just like, I love this matchup because I just thought Kirk is going to struggle in this matchup. He didn't, like you said, until really late in that game. And then once he lost it, he just couldn't get it back. So. Yeah. Good win by the Vikings team. And you know, they're a team that there's a route for them to get this one seed. Pretty, pretty incredible coach of the year right now for. For a team that, you know, us sitting here right now with them being even in reach of that one seed is truly mind blowing to me.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, that division, the packers, the Vikings and the Lions, it's starting to feel like in any given Sunday division. Right. Like what, what we saw with the packers and the Lions, that was a great game. And you truly felt like if the packers had one, one more chance to get the ball, they would have scored. And it's why Dan Campbell did what he did in going forward and wanting to end the game on offense the way he did. You know, I think that was a great call because all three of these teams, God, it's going to be fun to watch them like they're. They're all so good. And I'm so glad the Lions continue to pace because I feel like the Lions deserve to get the number one seed with all the injuries they've battled so they can be healthy and at full strength when they get to the playoffs. Although we will talk about their game for next week against the Buffalo Bills where they are two and a half point favorites as we went on air later in the show. Quick reminder, our free favorite podcast event is just days away. It's time to RSVP Thursday, December 12, the Wicked Wolf in Center City Philadelphia. This will be an exclusive live episode just for the attendees of this event. Me, Simon, Evan Abrams is coming now. Matt Mitchell is going to be there. The whole crew is going to be there. So you'll get a regular show only. It's going to be just for the people that are there. Event starts at 6pm we'll start the episode at 7. Everything leads into the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Rams and the Niners. We're going to talk about that game too. Right now it's a two and a half point game. Two and the spread is two and a half. To RSVP for this free event, check out the link in the podcast or YouTube episode description. Simon and I have been tweeting it out putting it on all the social platforms. Not because we have any political reasons for doing it, it's just where people ask us to put stuff. For those planning to attend, be sure you arrive as an active bet365 user meaning you've downloaded the app and you have deposited. You will get VIP access at the event and you'll get free favorite swag which by the way Simon and I are wearing right now. For those watching. We're wearing it. We didn't even plan on this but we're such BFFs that we both feeling good. We put on our comfy cozy favorites hoodies for the show. Space is limited. RSVPs. It's getting tight. Don't delay. Get your RSVP in. All right. This game, Cleveland plus six and a half at the Steelers. This was the full 360 Jamius experience. A lot like last week. Only this time Simon we were on the other side of it, dude. We were. We like we celebrated with him in the first quarter when he had a beautiful scramble, threw a beautiful ball on the run to Jerry Judy, 35 yard touchdown. Moments later there was a bad pick while under pressure to a defensive lineman. The Steelers scored. They go up 10 7. Never trailed again. I mean and that I I just want to get your take before we get into like the catastrophe of the final three minutes of this game.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah, I still though I don't put it on James, I thought it to me it falls into one one other player and the kicker that just totally screws in that game because yes, Jameis, he had his Jamis moments. We knew that going in it was going to happen. I mean, I was prepared for that mentally. I was ready for that stupid pick, that D lineman. No problem there. Especially the way Cleveland's defense played. They played so well in that game overall. Yeah, the kicker totally changed the mentality of that game. Like, he makes both of those kicks are in really crucial spots, especially the one before half where that's such a different mentality, being down three and a half rather than six. And then when he misses it again, it's like once again. Now, instead of being down one possession, they're down two possessions, which is just a thing that we've seen. James isn't the best in these exact type of scenarios. So that was brutal. And then. Yeah, the. The cadets.

[Simon Hunter]

Don't say it yet.

[Jared Goff]

Okay.

[Simon Hunter]

I want to set it up because a lot of things happened. Like obviously Dustin Hopkins, he misses two field goals. They were down 13, seven. This game could have been 13, 13. Right. And so he's missed three of his last nine field goal attempts, has missed eight this season after missing just three all of last year. But even with all of that, it's 27 to 7. The Browns score a touchdown, and it's Jameis time. And I feel like we got a shot at the back door. It's 27 to 14. About four minutes left. The Steelers fumble. The Browns recovery. Two plays later, do you know what happens?

[Jared Goff]

I'm assuming Jameis pick.

[Simon Hunter]

Jameis threw a pick. Jameis throws a pick. They are on the 35 yard line of the Steelers. The beauty of this was I was watching red zone. And because none of these things were happening sort of in scoring drives, and the end of so many of the early games, there were so many touchdowns. And this Dolphins jets game really took over sort of the dominant box for red zone. You didn't see any of this, like, Steelers fumbling, Jameis getting the ball. Jamie's throwing the pick. All we saw was Steelers down 2714. Steelers up 2714. They're punting. And that's when we get to. With three minutes left. And that's when we get to Simon.

[Jared Goff]

Oh, Kaderis. Tony.

[Simon Hunter]

Kaderius.

[Chad Millman]

Tony.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah. And I thought, give him some. Some love that. Bill Barnwell, our guy, he just had a really funny tweet about this exact scenario. So this tweet was Kaderius. Tony played two snaps in the fourth quarter, both on special teams. First one was a fair catch, and then he got flagged for taunting. Okay. Next time he goes out there, he muffs a punt. Steelers recovery. Those are his two snaps in the fourth quarter on special teams.

[Simon Hunter]

So how do you get flagged for.

[Jared Goff]

Taunting on a fair catch?

[Simon Hunter]

On a fair catch when you're down three touchdowns? Oh, my God, what a fucking putz. I mean, how does this guy keep getting like, honestly, how does this guy keep getting jobs? He flames out as an absolute failure in every single place he goes. And like, if you are on the Chiefs and Andy Reid is like, I can't even deal with this guy. I don't know why that, that should be the death knell for your career. There should be no one else who wants to pick you up, Right?

[Jared Goff]

Yeah. I mean, I don't get it, but I, I just, I think teams, you know, at this point, they just get desperate and they allow themselves about the level of talent. But yeah, he is just. It's incredible that he basically won that Chiefs, that Super bowl that one year. Like that kick return. He had totally changed the dynamic of that game against the Eagles. And then since then, he has just been awful in every aspect of his career. So, yeah, that, that was a moment where I switched it. I switched it off to tv. I was watching. I moved it along to a different part of the sports book to watch a different part of the. Because I just said to myself, me and Chad aren't getting this back door now. Like, I think they had the ball now at that point. They had the ball at like the 30 of. Yeah, yeah, Cleveland. And they just ran the clock out.

[Justin Jefferson]

Yeah.

[Jared Goff]

And that was, that was just an awful, awful loss because it felt like there's so many different ways either could have won that game outright for Cleveland or just covered. And yeah, now it's what, Evan? 21 years they have not won outright in Pittsburgh. I mean, they won the playoff game obviously, so that's a regular season stat, but still that's. It's pretty insane.

[Simon Hunter]

That was like the backdoor was wide freaking open. And I firmly believed it, firmly believed that that was going to be a game that we covered right up until that kidarius Tony Fumble.

[Chad Millman]

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The captivating Toyota Crown family Toyota. Let's go places.

[Jared Goff]

Hey guys, this is Matt Jones. Drew Franklin from the Fade this podcast. We got a great episode coming up. Picks in all the sports, football, basketball, we do them all. But here's a preview of this week's episode. I've seen people in the gambling community kind of make jokes about fade this and we just goof off and don't even talk about the games. Bring your records and set them on this table right now. All you out there that are spend two hours talking about the games and will in the last seven years and night games, they've come in and haven't scored 20 points and you get too detailed. Bring your records right here to fade this. We'll we'll talk about books and cooking and Kevin Costner and still make more money betting on sports than you will. And this episode was brought to you in partnership with DraftKings. To hear more, listen and subscribe to Fade this on iheartradio or wherever you listen to podcast.

[Simon Hunter]

The game that was the miracle of miracles. New York jets at Miami Dolphins. We had the Dolphins minus five and a half. Honestly at 3:30, if you had said to me which game do you think you're most likely to cover? I probably would have said not the Vikings, not the Jets. I would have said the Browns because they were all like in various states of distress. But the Browns felt like they'd be going against a team that the back they'd be losing by losing, losing by so much. It would be Jameis time where he just flings it and the Steelers are sort of done worrying about it. Instead we get the Vikings and we get a miracle backdoor cover from the Miami Dolphins who these are the things that kill us most often in bets that we have missed PS and missed opportunities in the red zone. We had both of those with that Miami Dolphins in the first half.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah. And like as always, I get what Miami fans question their head coach because the calling, the play, calling down in the red zone to me just felt so egregious for that Miami team. It was just bizarre world. So yeah, that, that's the type of game that I don't know, I think it might have been the second quarter. At one point they said Rogers had 200 yards and he's on pace for his first 300 yard game since 2021.

[Simon Hunter]

He had.

[Jared Goff]

Well me and chatter cooked if this, if this is going to be the game that somehow he finally throws for 300. That's how bad your defense is right now. There's no way. Cause like you just said, we were getting threes instead of getting touchdowns. That hold will start the game. And then they went what, Chad, another quarter? The whole third quarter. No, nothing from Miami's offense. They were dead.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Jared Goff]

And the jets did what the jets had done all season. They just let them hang around. They just cannot close teams out this season. That's exactly what happened. They had all these opportunities just to end that game, close it out. And they just kept giving lifeline to that Miami team. And what we talked about, Tua like, Tua, he's playing well. Like the fact that he finished this game with over 300 yards and two touchdowns just shows that even on a day where he's off, he's not really totally on his game. You still, you give him enough lifelines, he's going to find a way and he's going to do it. So yeah, Miami defense really bad. But yeah, once again, two on that offense comes and saves a day. And this Jeds team, it's historical these, these meltdowns. And we joked about the professionals. They got their cover at the six and a half. We thanked them for moving it to five and a half. We got a bunch of money on that. And um, the books are the ones crying because they're basically. I mean even before we started our show this morning, I remember it was still six. And then while we were doing our show and moved to six and a half. So obviously some people got burned by the line movement. But yeah, for the most part it just seemed like the books got crushed by the middle.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. You know, it's funny you mentioned the Dolphins in the red zone. They're just not a physical football team. Like they have no power. Right. And so you get in the red zone, you just cannot convert. Where it's all about owning the line of scrimmage in scrum like situations. That's what I was thinking about when I was watching this game. Like they have no ability to bulrush anybody. And so if the motion isn't confusing people, which luckily they were playing the jets, so it did confuse people then they have no ability to score. Right. And we got lucky with back to back to back miracles on a day where for the first time in 35 games Aaron Rodgers threw for 300 yards. He was mobile, he in the pocket and rolling out, he was connecting with Devonte Adams like it was December in Lambeau 10 years ago. And then we got Miami scoring a touchdown and the two point conversion. They gave up a field goal down three. So they were down three with 56 seconds left. Then we had three miracles. We get a huge run back on the kickoff to their own 46. We get a 52 yard field goal from Jason Sanders who had already kicked a 57 yard field goal today. Then we win the toss. And I got to tell you, when they won the toss, I'm like, we're going to cover this game. Did you think that?

[Jared Goff]

Yeah, just because I always had that theory about the defense in that exact scenario just being cooked. Right. It's a hot, hot day down in Miami like we were talking about. And now after you just gave up that heartbreaking field goal at the end of the game for it to go to 80, now you have to go back on the field and yeah, that, I mean there was like, I think the, the commentator joke. They ran the same play back to, back to Juno Smith, the tight end because that's how cooked the jets defense was. It was like even if they didn't see this coming, they, we don't think they're going to run outside because they're all their legs are just so heavy. And that's what happened. It was two huge plays of Juno Smith and a couple to Waddle. Tyree Kill got all the way down there and yeah, it's just like I said, Tua, he had his bad moments in this game, but overall he's just, I mean it's, it's crazy how bad QB play is in this league where it's like I would feel lucky to have two on my team. I know we make fun of him because of contract, but it's like there's so much bad out there that two from game to game he is just, he's, he's better than at least 15 of the other quarterbacks to start in this league. No doubt about it.

[Simon Hunter]

He's super consistent. It's why we liked the Dolphins in this game. He's super consistent. He's so accurate. They're not the same explosive team that they've been. They run so many more crossing routes and so many more plays where they're just trying to get to Waddle and Tyreek Hill and have them make plays after the catch, which they did today. First, first pass of the game. This was great. I was feeling really good. After this first pass of the game, Tua to Waddle. Waddle runs, gets it, catches it, runs the 20 yard gain and then It's a personal foul on the jets very first pass play of the game. I'm like this is going to be a great day. Right up until the Dolphins forgot how to score in the red zone. But you know what? At the end of the day worked out for us. So we were, we were two and one after all that drama heading into the last game of the early slates before the center half football game we had Chicago plus three and a half at the Niners. I think we both knew we were stepping in it this morning.

[Jared Goff]

A little bit. It was more, I was shocked. I don't know. I thought we had talked and we talked Carolina on Thursday. So I definitely think you took the exact decision and put the Bears in Thursday, which.

[Simon Hunter]

No, no, no time.

[Jared Goff]

Cause it was three and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

We liked, we liked Carolina but we both said we wanted Carolina at 13 and a half and it was a 12 and a half in the contest.

[Jared Goff]

That's fair. On Thursday it was definitely a game though, like exactly what you just said. I, I, I didn't really bet it that heavy. And then this morning when it was popped up it was just the line had moved to three at that point. So it's just like we already had it in the contest. I was like well we have good value on it. Are we really going to switch out this game? And then had to switch out maybe Miami and the Vikings because at the time they had both moved to bad numbers.

[Simon Hunter]

So we would have had to.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah, yeah, it's, it sucks where it's like we knew we saw that a mile away on Tuesday. We talked like that's the 49ers, the spot we historically had played just like the Rams were today where it's like this season it just beat us up so bad that we kind of got spooked off by both those games and those are old school spots just like that. Carolina was an old school spot like those, those games stand between those games. It's just historically you see those teams have let down games and we saw today, this, this Bears team even, even if we were hoping for a coach bump. It just looked from the get go that Purdy was just on one. Like he came out firing with him and Kittle. That connection was unreal. Start the game and you know they get out to a fast lead. I still thought we had a chance to be honest Chad, just because the 49ers have been best so bad in the second half and the Bears have been so good the second half and maybe we had a chance at it. But then I think that strip sack fumble, yeah, by Caleb, put the end of that. But what is it, ten straight games now? Caleb? No, no interception. So, yeah, the Bears, it's, it's at this point you want a better draft pick, so who cares? That would have been nice, obviously, to get a win after firing your coach. But overall, it's like you know that you were not. You're not as bad as you look today. And the 49ers not. Are not as good as they look today. But that was just a meeting of two teams that you can tell the different level of coaching on both teams in this exact game.

[Simon Hunter]

The Bears had five punts in the first half. To your point of not looking as bad. They had four total yards, right? Five punts, four yards. The Niners had 320. I'm with you. I feel like at this point I've seen enough out of Caleb. I know he can be a legit first rate quarterback. I just want the Bears to keep losing. I just want him to lose. Get as good a pick as possible. You know, we all know. I grew up in Chicago. My mom moved to the bay area about 15 years ago. My sister lives in the Bay Area. She had twins. She has 15 year old twins and a younger kid who's going to be 13. And when my mom, my mom moved out there to be closer to my sister. And so my mom called me this afternoon and she's like trash talking me about the Bears.

[Jared Goff]

Wow.

[Simon Hunter]

And I'm like. She's like, oh, I'm so sorry you turned it over. I'm like a. What the fuck are you talking about? You rooted for The Bears for 40 years living in Chicago. Why are you trash talking me right now about the Bears? And then I second. I'm like, mom, this is exactly what I want. If you want to root for the Niners, go ahead. But I want the Bears to look bad and I want Caleb Williams to look good. This is my only goal right now. So you know it's not working out for you as much as you want to trash talk me right now. And then I told her I had to go because I was just upset about the whole conversation.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah, that was tough.

[Simon Hunter]

Let's just say we're not going through a walk for a walk through the botanical gardens like you do with your auntie anytime soon, okay? Not until she calls and apologizes. Trying to get under my skin. Look, I think this game was like a last resort pick because we couldn't come to consensus on a lot of different things. Like, we loved Minnesota, we loved Green Bay on Thursday night. I think those were the two games that we loved the most and we obviously couldn't put Green Bay in. You liked Buffalo, I like the Rams, we both like the Panthers. But we agreed that the number. What we were going to wait until we get.

[Jared Goff]

I don't know if I agreed to because I'm looking at my notes right here, brother. My five games I put in, I literally said on the show was the Panthers.

[Simon Hunter]

I didn't have that.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah, I said it on the show though. I know for a fact because I have it literally written right here in my notes. I'm looking at. Because I wanted to double check because I was like, is Chad right? Did I not say. And maybe you're right. Maybe I was like, well, I want us to get a better number on Sunday. But yeah, that just sucked. We missed on it because you knew, I don't know, midway through the second quarter that that game was going to come down to possession. Bryce Young just played really well overall in that Eagles game. So yeah, that, that was a bad miss by me not forcing that one. And just because we just knew that was just such a let down spot for the Eagles team in this Panthers team, the books. We, we've said it for weeks now. They haven't caught up to a line with this team. They're just not what they were early in the season. They keep being undervalued and maybe next week they'll catch up to them. That's an interesting line. Next week. But yeah, this week I feel like.

[Simon Hunter]

They have and I feel like we already missed it.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah, yeah, this one was pretty crazy. It got up to 14 right before kickoff. So yeah, good, good number to bet if anyone got it.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, there's one more game that we could have put in which we're going to talk about in a second. But first, Simon, can you name the best ticketing app in the United States?

[Jared Goff]

Game Time.

[Simon Hunter]

That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, Game Time. As Simon and all our listeners know, I love going to live games. NFL, NBA, college football, college basketball, you name it. Using Game Time is my favorite way to buy tickets. They've got amazing last minute deals on games and concerts and their new feature called Game Time Picks that makes getting tickets to see your favorite teams play live even easier. Game Time Picks filters out the fluff to show you only incredible deals on great seats so you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets. Speaking of which, I'm open to the Game Time app. Right now, from my house here in Connecticut, I can get tickets for Friday night smackdown at the Excel center in beautiful Downtown Hartford, just 10 minutes from my house. 50 bucks. My favorite part about Game Time. They're all in pricing. Shows me the total cost upfront. No surprises no matter where you live. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, use code favorites for $20 off your first purchase terms apply. Again, create an account, redeem code favorites F A V O R I T e s for $20 off. Download game time today. What time is it? Game time. All right. I think it's very important right now that someone come on this show.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And give him Maya Culpa. So I'm going to invite Matt Mitchell. He's going to apologize to me for berating me when I wanted to choose the Giants. Simon, I felt like you were delicate and thoughtful and sensitive and gave me the feedback that you normally give when you feel I'm going astray, which is like, are you sure? And, you know, you gave me some good points. And I backed away and made Minnesota my exec decision. Matt was grinchy and belligerent. Belligerent. And then on the show mocked me with little drops on the show after my Giants pick.

[Jared Goff]

Really?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, he did. And then he was so proud of it, he slapped me to say, hey, did you hear that drop? Fans loved it. Fans loved the drop about the Giants. So, Matt, if you want to come on right now and just sort of apologize, I'd appreciate that. I think all the listeners would appreciate that because the Giants covered their five and a half point number.

[Jared Goff]

That's true.

[Simon Hunter]

They did. And of course, I apologize to you. I serve at the pleasure of our audience. I always have. I appreciate the many fans, including our super fan Brendan O'Neill of the O'Neill family, who reached out to. I love the O'Neills. Yeah, we love the O'Neills. He was most appreciative of the slander and being spared the point of view. That was the point of view of the Favorites podcast, that the Giants were a fun and smart bet. But, yes, I'm so sorry. Sorry that I was so, quote, grinchy to you. Sorry that I hurt your feelings. The Bills also lost today. Sean McDermott, aka Sean Schottenheimer, showed his ass again today.

[Jared Goff]

It's been a.

[Simon Hunter]

Been a banner weekend for me, so, yeah, congratulations. I'm. I'm so sorry. Hopefully we can pick up the shattered pieces of our relationship and reassemble them in Philadelphia, the City of Brotherly Love. Simon Matt's been very grinchy lately. I'm excited for you to see him in Philadelphia. So I'm excited for everyone to see him in Philadelphia and I want everyone to ask him that. Why are you so grinchy? If we can get a couple hundred people to go up to Matt Mitchell and just constantly ask him why he's in such a bad mood all the time recently and maybe try to make him feel better, that will make my night. Anyone who comes up to me and says, I just asked Matt Mitchell why he's in such a bad mood, we're going to figure out what your gift is for sure.

[Chad Millman]

Handzone Right on the money.

[Jared Goff]

That was a total bullseye. Yeah. I don't know about you, Chad, but if I had a fireplace in my office, I'd be pretty happy all the time. So that's, that's where I'm at with it.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, he's fine in a lot of ways to be to be grinchy.

[Chad Millman]

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[Simon Hunter]

Dear Toyota, I need a word with you about your Crown family. I started driving one and suddenly I love traffic. No, really, rush hour is my happy place. Intentional wrong turns feel so right. I could sit in the comfort of my crown forever, basking in its elegance, feeling on top of the world. But you see how this is strange for me, right?

[Chad Millman]

Who gets excited about traffic?

[Simon Hunter]

This is on you, Toyota.

[Justin Jefferson]

And send the captivating Toyota Crown family Toyota. Let's go places.

[Jared Goff]

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[Simon Hunter]

Stay farm in DJ Dramos from Life as a Gringo. No. Making smarter financial moves today secures your financial freedom for a successful tomorrow.

[Chad Millman]

Tackle these situations in stride. And yeah, of course, be annoyed when unplanned expense comes up, but not let it be something that slows me down.

[Simon Hunter]

Right?

[Chad Millman]

And also as I did with repairing my credit, you know, hiring somebody to do credit repair for me, you know, that was a gift that I gave myself that allowed me to then, you know, get my first apartment, get, you know, my first car under my name, then eventually buy my own home.

[Jared Goff]

Like, these are all things that are.

[Chad Millman]

Possible for all of us. We just have to educate ourselves and put in some of the hard work that it takes to unlearn bad practices we might have inherited from our family and then also educate ourselves on the things that we don't know.

[Simon Hunter]

You know, the information that wasn't passed.

[Chad Millman]

Down to us because our parents weren't educated on these things.

[Simon Hunter]

Like a good neighbor. State Farm is there. State Farm, proud sponsor of Michael Tura Podcast Network. All right, we got to look at some week 15 lines I mentioned. You know, we got the Thursday Night Football watch party next week, so Rams and Ners was at two and a Half when we went on air. I don't know what it's at now. My initial instinct on that the Rams were two and a half point dogs. Their win over the Bills. Obviously significantly more impressive to me than the Niners win over the Bears. But it also makes me feel like it could be a good time to fade the Rams because it was such a monumental win. You got thoughts on this one?

[Jared Goff]

Yeah. Isn't this Easy? Easy bet 49ers under 3 take when you count. I think most books are gonna get down to two one and a half. Like, it feels like you might not need a rush to get it if you don't want to just because of what Chad just said. Like, that was by far the best game of the year by Matt Stafford in that offense. I mean, it was incredible how good they were. And yeah, the no. 1 in the public should be buying this 49ers team, but I'll grab it now. I mean, Evan's going to have some amazing trends for us this couple coming week about this 49ers team against his Rams team. And just Shanahan, it's. It's usually his spot to win, right?

[Simon Hunter]

Spot.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah. Like, it feels like they always match up well against them. He just. Historically, even when his team wasn't that good and McVeigh's team was good, he usually beat him. And now it feels like they're pretty even for the most part. I know that people think overall the Rams are a better team, but I still think this 49ers team overall is a. Is a better team. So, yeah, Chad, this is a game I'll just be patient on. I mean, I'm looking at live right now. Bet365. It's down to minus two. So you're right. It opened two and a half before we even started. This morning it was three. So, yeah, it's moved to full point. That's not public money. That's professional money.

[Simon Hunter]

People are going to be so impressed with the Rams win. It's just going to. Money's going to come in on the Rams. Like we're going to have. We're going to have the opportunity to bet this at a much better number. We talked about the Panthers. They literally at 7 o'clock, 7:15 before we came on one and a half point underdogs to the Cowboys. As I opened the app at 7:30 just to double check some lines that I was interested in, it moved to Panthers minus one. Now it's minus one and a half. So we'll have a Longer conversation on Tuesday. But here's the thing. It's already flipped from Panthers as a dog to Panthers a favorite, which is always a tricky and dicey spot to play.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah, but it's right. Like, I, I'm. I'm positive I'm going to have this line at minus two and a half, minus three for this Panthers team. So I'm excited to see what I do have it at. I mean, I wouldn't mind it going up and we can come on the Cowboys because the Lions move too much. But right now, the early movement, that sounds right to me. It's just the Panthers, they're a totally different team. They were early in the year and they're a team playing with confidence, even though they shouldn't be. It's really impressive what that coaching staff has done. And even their defense today. Like, they were outmatched in every way and they played hard all the way to the very end. So, yeah, just. I would say I can't believe this, but as a Panthers fan, how are you not excited about the future right now? I know Chris Young, there's a lot you can build off of with this kid. And yeah, I know today was his best. I think it was 19 of 34, but you saw what he was doing with a guy like Adam Phelan, where it's like, if he has a smart receiver that knows how to follow him when he's moving and running outside the pocket and getting downfield, he's a good weapon. Like, he keeps his head downfield and he can find open guys. So, yeah, that. That guy who bet that $3 million, dude, he. He must be praising the God for that drop by Leggette at the end of that game because that felt like that was. That was going to be it. And they're about to win that game.

[Simon Hunter]

So they were a Leg. Legette drop away from winning that game.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And no, like, like criticism of Legette. It was a really hard catch. It was a great throw. I can. It's impossible not to be impressed with how Bryce Young has been playing. And we thought. I mean, we also talked about. We were a little bit nervous that this defense was so good for the Eagles and their defensive line was so good. They would just be a different experience for the Panthers than we had seen in their previous games, even against the Chiefs a little bit because the Chiefs secondary isn't as good. So I do remember a lot of hesitation because now I'm feeling like a little annoyed that I didn't put the Panthers in. But we Had a lot of hesitation.

[Jared Goff]

I mean, you can just want to piggyback right off that one. I mean, the Eagles right now. Chatter. Minus four and a half against Pittsburgh.

[Simon Hunter]

I know.

[Jared Goff]

And that's like, isn't everyone in their grandma going to bet the four and a half? Who's not betting the Pittsburgh four and a half? So that is one of the official lines I've seen. Like, to me, that was a, that was a Hang 3. And if you need to move to three and a half, you do. And if you, if you need Philly money, you move to two and a half. They just, they put it right at four and a half. That's. That's the book. Taking a stand, making a statement there. So seriously, that's, that's pretty impressive. They, they, they did that and maybe they think Pickens isn't going to play again because, I mean, obviously today didn't really matter for them. But like, we know that's a big deal for that Pittsburgh team not having Pickens and yeah, I like that's a number. I haven't bet either side yet. But like, I am really having a hard time not betting Pittsburgh right now because I know it's, it's something, Something just feels off. But four and a half, that's. That's crazy. They opened up that high.

[Simon Hunter]

That game obviously is in Philadelphia. They sat. So the news coming in. Hold on. A couple of things I got. Since November 1st, Carolina's 5. 0 against the spread. So the only undefeated team against the spread since November 1st. Also, Gifford is telling us in the chat that the Steelers sat George Pickens for next week, so he'll be ready for next week. That makes the four and a half feel even higher to me.

[Jared Goff]

It's crazy. Yeah, I mean, it's. That's a lot of respect to an Eagles team that I don't know if it deserves that much respect.

[Simon Hunter]

I think people feel the same way you and I did last week. Like, that defensive line is fierce. And so I do think that's something that people are getting in their head. Obviously it, at least for me, I'll take the blame here. It played too much into it, which is why we put the Bears in. But whatever, we're moving on. We're going to, you know, hopefully it works out tonight with the Chiefs and. Yes, sir, it'll be okay. Houston is 2 1/2 point favorite at home against Minnesota. I mean, against Miami. We know how TUA plays against bad teams. Houston has been on a buy. Miami on the road. I. Eileen Houston here.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah and it's. It's. It's a two. A two at a couple books now Houston. So.

[Simon Hunter]

Wow.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah. Early professional money on Miami. That's another very confusing line, Jay. I agree.

[Simon Hunter]

Why.

[Jared Goff]

Why is this line not three Houston. I guess we perceive that, you know they're coming off a bye week planning against a Miami team who's now on the road after going to overtime. Um. Don't we expect this to be a nice spot for the Texans? But yeah, I'm again a fishy number. It's like my, my. My initial reaction is I want to take Houston here but I'll be patient just cause clearly a smart group is coming and take Miami. The two.

[Simon Hunter]

Two and a half, three more games for me. Indy plus four at Denver. I just feel like we got very lucky with Denver the way they covered last week and four feels like a really big number for them. Still to be favored by against a Colts team that is very well coached coming off a buy.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah, it's. I'll be interested. I'll probably dive into the splits. What Anthony Richardson is at home compared to on the road because he's been really good to us, especially at home. This Colts team this year, like we've gotten away with a lot of that where they've not definitely not been the same. I mean they literally almost just lost outright to the Patriots on the road. So maybe that's something the same thing with that Bears team we. I talked about with you weeks ago with you that Caleb Williams and the Bears are a different team on the road than they are at home. Like it's. Some teams just are that way and it's. It played out especially today with that with the Bears team. So I'm interested to dive into the splits. That's another one. I'll hold off on betting because I agree with you. First glance this should be three, three and a half. It feels you're getting a free point on that Colts team. So I, I agree there seems like there's value right now in this Colts team.

[Simon Hunter]

I love when you agree with me. Why is Seattle a three point underdog at home versus Green Bay? We didn't know what Seattle was midseason. Yeah. But I feel like their defense has been much better, much, much better since the buy. They've made a lot of changes. They tackle better. They're better against the run. They're better against the pass. Like it. I couldn't be more impressed with Mike McDonald and we've seen offenses go up and down the field against the Green Bay Defense and Gino is not afraid to fling it. So this feels weird to me that Green Bay would go on the road as a three point favorite. I think they're getting too much credit in this game.

[Jared Goff]

That's fair. But I mean, we talked about a reason I like the Vikings State is that your. Your division is so fucking good, Chad. Like, and you beat up on these teams outside your division. Like they don't. It's not something where like we've seen other divisions that they struggle when they play out outside of conference. Like even the good teams. So yeah, like to me, Green Bay, especially after that Lions game, like they're a legit playoff team. Like they didn't have their best game against the Lions and they almost stolen one that game.

[Simon Hunter]

Right, Right.

[Jared Goff]

And I still put them on a different level when I do the Seahawks. Seahawks feel like a 6, 7 seed that they could steal their division this year just because it's a down year for the rams and the 49ers. Right. They could get away with one here. But today I thought made a statement more about just that that Kyler and that Cardinals team just ain't there yet. Right. They're just not ready. And Gino has proven even on even say he wasn't, didn't have his best game. He's a veteran quarterback who has earned what they gave him those months ago. Right. They might win this division and that's a big deal. They fired Pete Carroll. Like you said, this defense has totally flipped the script since their bio week and they really take on the identity of their head coach. So yeah, the three is gone. It's down to two and a half at most books now.

[Simon Hunter]

So see how sharp I am. Like I'm coming out here on the early lines and like I'm saying which way the lines which we. What we should be doing here. And the lines are going in my direction every single time.

[Jared Goff]

But I do agree with the Green Bay being a favorite. I do think that from the books perspective and my perspective, I think that is right that they're a better team that at home I'd have them in the playoffs. If they had played Seahawks at home in the playoffs, I'd have it close to five and a half six. So this, this line feels right.

[Simon Hunter]

All right. The other game we gotta talk about and then I wanna make sure we. We talk about. And maybe this is in your list. Detroit, Buffalo. Detroit's 2 1/2 point favorite game of the week. Yeah. Give me the lines.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah, I'm shocked. That's plus Three like the lines open. Plus three. I mean, minus three. If it gets a two and a half, I'll take, I'll take the Lions with you.

[Simon Hunter]

But at three, I saw two and a half.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah, two and a half. I would take the lines. At three, I lean towards Josh Allen. I mean, we just saw it today. It's like he's never going to stop coming. And Dan Campbell, we already know the deal, Chad. It's all going to come down to him and what their fourth down record is. If they're 3 for 5 on fourth down, I'm feeling pretty good about holding that Josh Allen ticket. Like the two of those fourth downs they're going to miss on. He's going to make them pay, especially coming off a loss. He's just. Josh Allen's at a different level right now. I cannot believe if you bet that second half, he came back and covered that like the Rams basically played a perfect game offensively and won by two. He is just, he's at that Mahomes level. Like we talked the years ago with Mahomes, it's like you're never dead and you bet on this guy and it's like a gift right now, betting on them where it's like, I still can't believe you came back and covered that second half. So, yeah, you can tell I want to be on the Bills. I just. This Lions team, like we talked about, that Green Bay number. Anything under three, me and you were going to be on the Lions. We said that from the get go. But if it was over three, that's where the value was and that's where it was again. So, yeah, for a team that's not going to be able to stop back doors, I'm going to, I'm going to want to be on the Bills here. Who you got just before we go.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, who else am I missing?

[Jared Goff]

I mean, we pretty much went through the best games. Just the games that just jumped out for, you know, playoff games that we didn't really talk about. Chargers, Bucks. Chargers are minus three against this Bucs team. I'm going to take that Bucks number now just in case this Chargers team gets smoked and this number drops because that's another game that feels priced right. I got Chargers right around two. It makes sense that the book hangs a three here. And yeah, the last one for me, I mean, it's, it's, it's gross. But Browns are plus six right now.

[Simon Hunter]

Against the Chiefs, so I put that on my list. By the way, it was six and a half when I put it on the list. It's come down.

[Jared Goff]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

I just didn't know if we had the stomach for another Jameis experience.

[Jared Goff]

I have a, just not that kicker man, because it's just in a game, especially like the Chiefs, it's probably going to matter. But as we sit here right now, it's just like that's, that's so many points for this, this, this team right now and this, this Cleveland team that we saw it today, they're, they're never done. You really have to have them have a bunch of things back, go negative for them to kind of be out of it. So that was just a game that jumped out. I know we, we've been on a run here, fading this Chiefs team, maybe they'll come the other way and maybe they're starting to be undervalued here. So that's again, not one that I bet. I'm just, I just thought it was interesting. They opened at six and a half.

[Simon Hunter]

All right. Those are our eyeballs. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms Conditions restrictions apply. Catch our next episode live on Tuesday at 1:30pm Eastern on Action Network's YouTube channel. Download us from Spotify, Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, subscribe, leave us. 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until Tuesday. Love you. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.

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