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Unknown Speaker A
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Unknown Speaker B
And it's only on Prime Video Breaking the tackle touchdown this week. Keep the holiday celebration going as the Seattle Seahawks take on the Chicago Bears.
Chad Millman
You're gonna love this.
Unknown Speaker B
Coverage begins with TNF tonight. Not a Prime member. Sign up for a 30 day free trial to stream the game. It's the Seahawks and Bears Thursday only on Prime Video restrictions apply. See Amazon.com amazonprime for details.
Unknown Speaker D
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Unknown Speaker E
Welcome to TGL presented by SoFi, golf's newest league it's sharp and it's electric. How is it sharp? How is it electric? Good questions. Try this on for size. Two hours of hammer dropping overtime forcing playoffs on the line. Golf with 24 of the best players from the PGA Tour split into six teams Atlanta, Boston, Jupiter, L.A. new York and the Bay. This isn't your average Sunday pickup game. Catch the inaugural TGL match January 7th, only on ESPN.
Simon Hunter
Keep up. It's golf.
Unknown Speaker A
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Simon Hunter
Foreign.
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night episode. We will review the faves. Five picks we put into the contest we're going to dissect why we left some games out. We're going to preview the early lines we already like for a full week of NFL football in Week 17 games. Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter hello Simon Chad how we doing? Dude, we are two and two on the day. We have the Cowboys plus four and a half tonight. This is the week where we looked in the face of the gambling gods and the trends of Favorites dominating and we said screw you good teams with great quarterbacks. We will not be intimidated. We didn't like every dog today we did like some after the early window. There had been on Sunday there had been 10 NFL games played. So the Thursday, the Saturday Sunday Favorites had won eight of them. Simon it's an unbelievable trend and while we did have a favorite in our top five today, somehow it's the only favorite that didn't cover. But we were on both underdogs that covered in the early window. This may be the most exciting post games review we've ever had. Like two games we were at least sure of gave us all the reasons to feel unsure yet deliver Two games we were at least sure of. The one game we loved for every reason except for one did not go our way for exactly the reason we feared. We're going to break that down. We're going to play a little clip that shows how much we were foreshadowing our fears. Amazing. Topsy Turvy Bet the number early part of the day. We will get to it. Programming Note for this upcoming week Holiday Week Christmas on Wednesday. Our live episode of the Favorites on Tuesday is going to be at 11am Eastern. We're going to go early because Tuesday afternoon evening we're getting into the Christmas Eve window. We want to make sure we put it out while people still may be traveling or have a chance to listen before they're preoccupied, you know, with their families or watching football. Catch every episode of the favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365. Now new bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet$5. Sign up using promo code favorites deposit$10. Place a bet for $5 to get 150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment it's Never Ordinary. At BET 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, you ready to roll, Simon? Let's start with our early loss, early window loss. The Rams at the New York Jets. We had the jets plus three and a half. Gifford. Producer Gifford, are you ready? Because I want us to play a clip of our convo from Thursday. Do you remember, Simon, do you remember that conversation? Do you remember our biggest fear about betting the jets when we talked about it on Thursday?
Simon Hunter
I do not.
Chad Millman
Gifford, are you ready to play this clip? You can tell me in the chat. He is ready. All right, here we go. Play it unqualified.
Unknown Speaker D
There we go.
Simon Hunter
30 seconds, head coach. Wow, Real production value here. Thanks, Gif.
Chad Millman
And just about anybody watching red zone on a Sunday afternoon, it's actually astonishing how bad he is at it. So we get screwed in this game. This is why. And it's why actually 10 seconds. Get a massive bet this week is because I worry a little bit about.
Simon Hunter
Jeff just for not understanding one.
Chad Millman
I don't know about you, Simon, but I put us losing that game squarely on the shoulders of Jeff Ulbricht and his asinine, idiotic go back to being a defensive coordinator or probably a linebackers coach or maybe coaching high school football because he does not understand anything about the strategy of managing fourth downs. Managing the clock at the NFL level. An NFL coach has responsibility for two things on game day. That's it. Are you going forward on fourth down and how are you managing the clock? He makes the wrong call every single time. I'm referring to the first quarter. The jets dominate the the game. They look amazing. They look. Aaron Rogers is slinging it. Devonte Adams is catching it. The Rams look exactly like we think they're going to look. They look a little bit out of sorts. They look like the team that had been overvalued. The jets look like the team that is finally figuring it out. In my head I was thinking, oh my God, the Jets are probably going to do something so stupid like Woody Johnson's kids are going to decide they have to keep Aaron Rodgers for next year. That's how well he was playing. They're up 6 nothing because of course they score a touchdown and missed the extra point. They had just intercepted Stafford, who is a wreck at this point. There's no reason to be aggressive in the game. You are dominating this game. You punt the ball if you're not going to get close to a first down and you make Stafford prove it on their own 33 with eight minutes left in the second quarter. They go for it on fourth and one gets stuffed, the Rams score a touchdown. It's back and forth the rest of the day. What was your thought on that particular play? Because in my head I'm like, this guy's truly a fucking putz.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Every call he made flipped the momentum like the jets defense. Not that they dominated the game, but Stafford only had what, 110, 115 passing yards. Like he didn't have a good day at all. He wasn't like we talked about, they were playing so well, the jets. And basically every point that the Rams had came off a Jets bad decision. Right. It was either the head coach or Rogers. And yeah, like going for that fourth down on their own 30 was terrible. Not taking the three to go up six. Yeah, was a terrible decision. And obviously going for it at midfield once again and yet not getting it. It's just like every. Everything that could have gone wrong. And then the Rodgers, obviously Rodgers ful turnover. But yeah, they basically outplayed the Rams in that game, but they just mentally gave away the game. Like they gave it away in so many different ways with those bad calls that you're right, it's brutal. But it was just like we talked about. It's the other dogs you bet today. It's like you bet these teams in these good spots, but you obviously need luck and bounce to go your way. And we had a game today where every bounce went against us and we still somehow covered and that team went outright. We're in this game. There were still those opportunities for this jets team and they couldn't stop shooting themselves on the foot. Like even, even the opportunity was given to them. The Rams kept letting them hang around, stay in the game to cover the number. And it all basically came down to Devonte Adams turned the wrong way on a fourth down. Or I think that might have been third down midfield. Rogers throws a bad, bad spot. They. They don't get it off on fourth down. And then all of a sudden the ramps come down, score again. It's like, well, that bet's officially dead. So, yeah, brutal bet, brutal team in the Jets. I mean, I'm, I'm happy the season's almost over, the playoffs, so we don't have to bet this jets team anymore.
Chad Millman
So what you're referring to is this is a 96 game in the second quarter. And the. It's clearly a defensive battle where points are going to be at a premium. Anyone watching this games know, watching this game knows you just got to get as many points as you can. Because Stafford is struggling so much in this game, the only thing that's working for them is Kyron Williams, 4th and 4 from their own 12 from the Rams 12. He decides to go for it. Jeff Ulbricht, this guy thinks he's like Dan Campbell, only without the talent and without the strategic thought of when you should actually be going on fourth down.
Simon Hunter
Even worse. I don't. I don't think it's him, Chad. I think it's. It's Roger. He's letting him make these decisions. It feels like every time it's Roger standing on the field, waving or waving guys off, and it's like, dude, do not let this crazy guy, who might not even be here in about two weeks, keep making all these decisions. Like, obviously, Roger's always supposed to go with the guy, thinks he can complete it every time. So I'm with you. It's like the man has no backbone. He kept making the wrong calls, not understanding the way the game was and just how much momentum his team had. Like you said, they just had so many opportunities that you would put Stafford once again in a bad position to have to pass and instead let him keep having the lead where they can just keep running the ball. And that's the best thing they had today. I mean, you know, Williams was averaging over 5 yards of carry. Like, that's really their bread and butter today in this game.
Chad Millman
So the, the other player referring to is they were down 10 with 2 minutes, 2 seconds to go. It's 4th and 4 from midfield. They're going to go for it as they should. In my head, I was already thinking, yeah, they'll get to the 20 with 115 left and it'll be fourth down and they'll just kick the field goal there. So, like, what does it matter? Instead, it's 4th and 4. They get a false start, of course, because they had so many penalties in critical situations. They're pushed back nine yards, they go for the field goal, they miss it. Can you recall a coach that when you're handicapping, you've had to so aggressively consider his ineptitude when you are thinking about betting that game, when you are making a number for that game. At this point, I feel like you have to take the jets down further because of his inability to assess what is happening. Right in front of him.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I mean, the Saints coach they fired this year was absolutely the worst ever. Right. Historically, I think Evan always told us that.
Chad Millman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
No, I was trying to think, is that. What was the guy's name? Was it McDoo? I forget the name of the Giants coach, but he had a point where.
Chad Millman
McAdoo.
Simon Hunter
McAdoo. He had a point where it was like anything this guy was doing. I wanted to fade him. Like he completely had lost the locker room. I remember when he benched Eli Manning. Yeah. Jump out. Yeah.
Chad Millman
You know, that's a good call. Like this guy, even if it's Aaron Rodgers, like, you should know enough that you're playing for your coaching for next year. Maybe you're not going to be a head coach, but maybe if you show some semblance of backbone, some ability to manage a situation, some understanding of what is important in terms of the clock going for it all that I don't think Aaron Rodgers is saying, let's go for him. Fourth and one from the 30. I think that's Jeff Ulbricht deciding that they're going to do it. I mean, maybe we'll. I don't know if we'll ever find out, but I can't imagine Aaron Rodgers is saying that.
Simon Hunter
I can, but again, I might be thinking too much because I'm watching his documentary right now. I don't know if you are. And it is. It is eye opening. Me and Aaron Rodgers would be good friends. He is an absolute character.
Chad Millman
They're just. What a freaking train wreck. I thought we had him a good spot. We did have him a good spot.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I wish we should just. Unfortunately, obviously we can't take first half here, but that clearly was the move with that jets team. They. They didn't score a single point in the second half.
Chad Millman
Amazing. Arizona at Carolina. Five and a half. Look, we love the Panthers and Panthers in this spot. We had high expectations for them. They totally dominated this game. At what point they were up 20 to 3. We were feeling really good. The Cardinals snuck back in it. All of a sudden they score. 14 straight is 2017. I was still feeling pretty good. Like we got a good number in the contest. We got five and a half. So the way the Panthers were playing and they were dominating on the ground, the Cardinals really couldn't stop them. I felt like we were going to chew clock and that we were going to have a chance to maybe trade points, trade field goals, whatever. Then it got a little wacky.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
At one point, Bryce Harper played exactly like the Guy we've been betting on, right?
Simon Hunter
Bryce Young.
Chad Millman
Bryce Young. I mean, I love that Bryce Harper's.
Simon Hunter
On your mind though, Chad.
Chad Millman
Bryce Harper might be better than half the quarterbacks in the NFL. On a critical short yardage play late in the second half, Bryce Young got hit so hard in the face and he sidearmed a ball that converted the first down.
Simon Hunter
Perfect ball. Perfect ball getting smashed in the face.
Chad Millman
Like he was hit so hard. I thought he wouldn't get up. Like I just thought.
Simon Hunter
I can't believe. I can't believe again we talk about it coming year, how small he is. He just takes these insane hits and like you said, he gets up smiling. It's crazy.
Chad Millman
Smiling. After that, I swear to God, I thought to myself, it's so sad that he died on the field, but at least he died doing what he loves and keeping this game close. And maybe we still got a shot with Andy Dalton.
Simon Hunter
No, it's like that old. I forget. I don't know if it was Bruce Lee, but it was like basically like the guys who are the best are like feathers who can take punches, right? You don't want to be punched like you're metal. You want to be punching like you're a feather, like you can eat those hits. I don't know how he does it because he should have been dead. Like you said, it was a 300 pound man, literally full speed leveling him when he was mid throw. It was crazy. I still can't get over. That's basically what that game came down to in a lot of ways.
Chad Millman
But no, but on the next, like on the next two or three plays, he lost a perfect accurate moon ball over the outside shoulder to their receiver and they score a touchdown. They're up 30 to 20.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Was that more? Was that the more touchdown?
Chad Millman
That was the past to more.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, again he had a lot of big time throws but I mean I honestly thought we were dead. I can't believe you didn't think we were dead when it came down to that overtime.
Chad Millman
No, you know what? I thought it was dead. I wish we could do since we're such a high production organization. Nice job Matt Mitchell and Gifford on the, on the. Adding the clip with Ulbricht. But in my notes, I swear to God, in my notes with about right after Kyle Murray scored. Kyler Murray scored and the score was 30 to 27. I wrote in my notes, this is a nightmare scenario. This game's going to overtime. We're gonna lose by six. That's exactly what I wrote in My notes when he scored to make it 30 to 27. Like, I saw ot six, seven minutes out from it happening. Forget about when it went to ot when we got that coin flip. I like the thrill I had with Carolina winning that coin flip cannot be explained.
Simon Hunter
Me too. And it was especially just because of what had happened to us in that late window. We went from being a pretty cruise two in one to all of a sudden we're looking at 03. And I was just like, this is literally our season in a nutshell. Like, everything just goes wrong in these fourth quarters for us with these dogs. And it's just been. This year, it's just been a grind. Like, our dogs. The only way dogs hit now is if they win outright, basically.
Chad Millman
Like, they have to be perfect. Nearly perfect.
Simon Hunter
That. Yeah. And they're just. These breaks have to keep going their way. Like, it's. It is crazy where you get these comfortable leads and it's like, no, like, like you said, Carolina gets up big and it's like you can still do the. The gambling math and see how this could go the other way and we could still not cover. But, yeah, game that. Not that people are trying to talk me off of it, but like, a lot of people I know were on the Cardinals and a lot of heavy money came in late and bumped that number up, like you just said, to five and a half. Some books were at six a kickoff for that game. So, you know, that's one of those. That's like a little scary because it's moving against us and we're like, already pot committed kind of on Carolina. Like, we didn't even talk about switching them out. Right.
Chad Millman
So we did. We did. Don't forget, we did talk about switching out Carolina and Washington.
Simon Hunter
I would say Washington I would have understood.
Chad Millman
But like, we talked about both of them.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. For Detroit, once you said, though, five and a half. Though for Carolina, in my mind, there was no way I know of taking it out. But yeah, that. That would have been just a brutal beat to lose to. To again. The other time we covered two when they lost an overtime because it was a field goal. But it was just like, man, they. They can't blow this game. Like, they played so well. Bryce Young played so. And yeah, again, tough times for dogs, Chad. Like, two dogs we took had to win outright for us to basically cover the number.
Chad Millman
I have an idea for my next book, and it's about sports betting and gambler's math will be part of this book because the math that everybody does when they Are trying to figure out not how they are going to win a game, how they are going to get fucked in a game.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
Is astonishing. And I wish like everybody who isn't Dave Sportsbetter knew that what everyone else in the room who is a sports better was doing in their head as they were watching any of these games. Because I like every scenario, I was thinking, this is how we're going to get screwed here. This is how we're going to get screwed here. This is how we're going to get screwed here. And yet with these two games, Carolina and now Washington, who. We had it, I think four and a half, right? Yeah, four and a half. Because that number money came steaming in on Philadelphia on Sunday morning. I thought this was a dead bet in the first quarter.
Simon Hunter
Oh, yeah.
Chad Millman
They, like, they looked terrible. And this was the game we really talked about putting in. We talked about like Carolina and Washington, but really it was Washington. Like, we felt most uncomfortable with this game. We both did all week. Like, it was your assignment says, but like, it didn't really move in the direction we thought it was going to move.
Simon Hunter
No. It's another week of like all the eyes. I respect old heads. You know, they're really loving that Eagles team. And we basically saw it for that first quarter, like you just said. I was like, holy shit, they were right. We just walked right into us. They cannot stop Barkley. Like, I had so many guys talking to me about, this is a terrible matchup for Barkley that quietly flipped that once Hertz went out, they were able to stop Barkley. And you know, a game in which me and Chad got incredibly lucky Kenny Pickett did not lay down and die. That kid played pretty damn well in that game and showed up in pretty big moments. And we basically just needed a ton of little breaks to go our way. Just because Washington came out and, you know, not played their worst game, obviously, they put up over 30 points, but five turnovers, you never come back from that with a rookie against the number one defense on football. Like, you never have that. So basically everything we talked about came true with that Eagles team in that. In that spot where you have this emotional high win against Pittsburgh. You come in and the littlest thing went wrong with Hertz going out again. It's not like they reacted. They fell apart from it, but it clearly messed up the mindset of the whole team altogether because that defense just didn't look right the rest of the game, for the most part. Like they were flying to start the game and then all of a Sudden it kind of shifted the mood of the whole team. And you know, props to Kenny Pickett. I mean he kept the Eagles in that game and gave us a sweat. But Jaden Daniels, you know, just locked up rookie of the year. Just a truly incredible performance where his running back, I think he fumbled twice. Robinson, he's throwing picks all over the, all over the place and he still took him down that final drive. And a touchdown we had to have because you know, like you just said we were on a bad number. It was on five because of a stupid pick. And, and that when he threw that pick and they went to five, I was like, oh, me and Chad are dead here. There's no way he's going to drive the field with this amount of time. And yeah, basically Devonta Smith gave us the luckiest drop. And again the Eagles have had two losses this year on drops. The Saquon against Atlanta in this drop year. And it's like me and Chad needed that. Got really lucky it happened. But it was like the classic thing of, you know, it was eventually going to break away some of these, some of these games just because we had been so historically unlucky. So yeah, pretty insane. That all came down to Devonte drop because I think when they scored there might have been 6 seconds left and he would have caught that. It went to the. Would have went to the two minute and first down. So they basically would have. It would have been over.
Chad Millman
They would have run it out at 33, 28. We talked about putting the Lions in here and there was a moment, as always happens back to back, Saquon scores on a 68 yard touchdown right after Jameson Williams for the lions catches an 80 yard bomb. In that moment I was having such regret. Like I'm like I was just thinking, well, at least the jets are dominating and at least the Panthers are dominating. But like I was truly having such better regret. Even with hurts out, they're down 21 7. I felt like we were always in it because Kenny Pickett played great in the end. But the reason Saquon didn't do anything is because the commanders knew Kenny Pickett wasn't going to be able to do anything and they could just load the box and stop Saquon from getting any yardage whatsoever. Like, and they still did everything they could to throw this game away. Between the two picks, Jaden had a fumble in the second half. A.J. brown drew 68 yards of pass interference penalties on Marshawn Lattimore. That was as many yards almost as he had in the first half, receiving like Kenny Pickett had two great plays, one of them on 4th and 7 to AJ but we got very lucky in that game. Even on the game winning play. If you watch, you're going to go back and watch the film. I know. On the game winning play, see how early the commander's right tackle went. He was like, I'd say 0.2 to 0.3 seconds before the snap. Like to the point where my kid sitting next to me goes, well, there's a flag. I'm like, what? He goes, the right tackle went early. I'm like, I know. But they didn't throw it. Like, it was so obvious. And I was surprised the announcers didn't say anything because, like, it was, it was so fundamentally clear. I thought we were just going to lose it on that.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and the refs, though, are all bizarre. Like some of those calls against AGA were just obscene. Like they literally let the, the Eagles basically drive the field for that, that hold. Kept calling holds and pass interference. But yeah, for me, it's, you know, a game where we, we got lucky. We played the number, but we always talk about there's certain spots and that was just a bad spot for that Eagles team. And now they're in a position that, you know, they have some real decisions to make. How bad this hurts concussion is because obviously he couldn't come back in this game. So, you know, as an Eagles fan, I'm happy it's nothing to do with his body, but we all know how hard it is to come back from concussions. Depending on the concussion. Right. If this is a bad one, he could be out to the playoffs if it's not that big of a deal. Like, we'll know early in this week, obviously come back this week. But yeah, we were never going to cover this number if it was Jalen hurts in the full game.
Chad Millman
No, totally not. New England at Buffalo. So, you know, eight favorites cover in the early window, including Michael Penix and the huge favorites over the Giants, which we never considered. And the Lions at six and a half, which we thought about. And the Bengals at seven and a half, which, excuse me, which grew even bigger as we got. I think it was close to 10 before kickoff.
Simon Hunter
Only. Only three, you know, only three dogs covered this whole weekend. Right?
Chad Millman
Yeah. It's absurd. Well, it depends. It depends because anyways, we didn't choose any of those. We went all in on the Buffalo Bills. We, I mean, me to the point where even professional betters were worried about my sanity because why wouldn't you bet the best player in a home game in which he historically dominates and covers huge numbers against a really, really terrible team who's got offensive turmoil and a defense that hasn't been able to stop anybody all year? Oh, yeah, the Bills couldn't stop anybody. Drake May looked like Josh Allen. Pats were 5 of 8 on third downs. They were 1 for 1 on fourth down in the first half because they executed a fake punt from their own 22. Like the Pats gained seven and a half yards per play. It was a freaking debacle.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's kind of gaming. It's the best. It's the dream if you bet the dog in it. Because like you just said, Drake May came out firing and he looked ready for this game. Or Josh Allen looked all out of sorts. Like we talked about it. I, you know, we tried catching him against the Lions because we knew he was gonna, he was due for a bad game. They had done something historic. They had scored 30 points or more in eight straight games. Eventually goes the other way. It's just, I mean, he is superhuman, but it's like, you know, a lot of, we talked about a lot of the throws he was making. They were bad decisions. They were working out for him because he's just that talented. And in this game he just didn't get away with it. Right. The bounces didn't go his way. They're clearly the better team in every metric. Like when they, when they wanted to turn it on, they did turn it on. You know, defensively, they completely stopped everything that Patriots had momentum wise. I mean, they were up 14 early in the second quarter and they didn't score another point until the very last two minutes of the game. So that just shows like obviously the Bills defense, you know, it's a big worry. Everyone's talking about it. We know that they're not as terrible as they've looked against all these offense these last couple weeks, but there is something to it. Like you talked earlier in that game, Drake May was moving up and down the field and they're running the ball down the Bill's throat. So Josh Allen basically was the one that screwed us the end of this. Like their defense did enough. They got us a defensive touchdown. You figure Josh Allen's going to cover that number. You know, got a little banged up. But it was just at the end of the day, he just had an off night. Like even Cook had a good game. Running the ball like there really was all about Josh Allen. He just finally had a bad game. So, yeah, if he has another one, Lamar noise starts becoming a little more. More real. Right? It's, it's, it's going to get a little tighter here because he does have an easy schedule ended here. He's going to go New England to. Now he's playing the jets to back to New England. So, yeah, we'll see what the injury is for Josh Allen on his hand or if it's his elbow. But tough, tough bet that we lost this one. Just especially because every favorite cover, like we talked Detroit, you tried to talk me into Cincy. I couldn't get there. That number went from seven half to nine and a half by kickoff. They got crazy lucky to cover that number. I mean, so lucky. Every little thing. I think that two or three red zone turnovers, you know, walk in, touchdown called back on a holding for the Browns. They go down, score a touchdown. They didn't even need to score right. They're trying to run the clock out. They jump off. He just throws a perfect ball to Chase. So it's just been that kind of season, Chad, where it's like, you know, we're not, we're not favorite betters. We've been trying to do it even this week. I thought favorites were going to get smoked. Like the public, they're just betting these moneyline parlays of all these favorites and they're just cashing every week. It's crazy. But they did it again. So, yeah, hopefully the dog that we like tonight comes through. I know, again, it's a professional side. We've seen it get down to three and a half in a couple books now, this Cowboys line, so still feel confident about it. But after seeing all these favorites today, Chad, it's like I don't know what I'm looking at. It's just. It doesn't make sense that we're in a twilight world right now.
Chad Millman
We're going to talk about week 17 on the other side of this read. And I said before we came on the air, I feel like I'm reading hieroglyphics because I. I don't know how to look at this sort of on Sunday night in the heat of the moment without taking a beat and really breaking some of it down and trying to think about the scenario. So I'm curious to get your take on some of these. I got two or three games that sort of like felt right. But I was also in my head just working so hard to figure out where's my bias and blind spot on favorites. So I'm going To give you a minute, you'll take a look at the lines. I'm going to do our reading for Game Time. Simon, can you name the best ticketing app in the United States?
Simon Hunter
Again? Game Time.
Chad Millman
That's right. It's our beloved sponsor, Game Time. I have a no joke. You're not gonna believe this. You know I am an avid user of all the products of our regular sponsors. Here's an example of how avid. So like last night, my younger son goes into New York City. Goes into the city with a couple of his buddies staying overnight at his grandma's. They're all going to stay there because she just moved into Manhattan. He calls me around 5:30 last night and he says that they all want to go to the Nets game at Barclays. They're playing the Jazz in Brooklyn. I told him I'd buy the tickets for all them, but no more than 50 bucks each. While on FaceTime he opened the Game Time app that's on his phone. He clicked on the next Jazz game, went to the top deals that are featured in a row. When you click on the game Top deals, we both while we're looking at it, see the all in price for $51 for three three tickets, 51 each clicks it hits pay. It was done. Three clicks. He had the tickets. It was seamless and perfect. No joke. This is a real world example. I'm going to open the gametime app right now from my house here in Connecticut. We're probably going to go see a UConn women's game this week. Less than $35 to get in. My favorite part about gametime, the all in pricing I just mentioned. It shows me the total cost up front. No surprises no matter where you live. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, use Code Favorites F A V O R I T EE s for $20 off your first purchase. Again, create an account, redeem Code Favorites that's F A V O R I T e s for $20 off download. Game time today. What time is it?
Unknown Speaker B
Game time Thursday Night Football is on and it's only on Prime Video. Touchdown this week, keep the holiday celebration going as the Seattle Seahawks take on the Chicago Bears.
Simon Hunter
You're going to love this coverage begins.
Unknown Speaker B
With TNF to tonight. Not a Prime member. Sign up for a 30 day free trial to stream the game. It's the Seahawks and Bears Thursday only on Prime Video. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.comamazonprime for details.
Unknown Speaker G
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Unknown Speaker B
Hey guys, this is Matt Jones. Drew Franklin from the Fade this podcast. We got a great episode coming up. Picks in all the sports, football, basketball, we do them all. But here's a preview of this week's episode.
Unknown Speaker I
I've seen people in the gambling community kind of make jokes about Fade this and we just goof off and don't even talk about the games. Bring your records and set them on this table right now. All you out there that are spend two hours talking about the games and will in the last seven years and night games, they've come in and haven't scored 20 points and you get too detailed. Bring your records right here to fade this.
Chad Millman
We'll.
Unknown Speaker I
We'll talk about books and cooking and Kevin Costner and still make more money betting on sports than you will.
Unknown Speaker B
And this episode was brought to you in partnership with DraftKings. To hear more, listen and subscribe to fade this on iheartradio or wherever you listen to podcasts.
Chad Millman
Here's the good for us passes our passes. Today we didn't bet the Giants. Even though we like. We're like, should we really bet or skip a game in which there's a rookie quarterback who's a touchdown plus favorite.
Simon Hunter
Biggest favorite NFL history for first start for a rookie.
Chad Millman
And he covered with no problem. We didn't. He looked good.
Simon Hunter
He didn't throw a touchdown pass. Covered.
Chad Millman
Yeah, he still looked good.
Simon Hunter
I know, but that is crazy to think that's how bad Drew Locke is.
Chad Millman
He throws a really good ball. Well, like there were two pick sixes. We didn't bet the Titans. Everyone in the betting community was taking the bait. We did not take.
Simon Hunter
I know.
Chad Millman
They almost came close, man, that is.
Simon Hunter
And shout out to Beth365. I did. I bet on their site. I did a moneyline parlay with the Colts and they paid it out early. And I was just so happy when that all snat Titans come back happen. I was like, oh, the Colts are going to blow this. And yeah, Anthony Richardson, who had 11 completions, had a big, big thing third down throw.
Chad Millman
Oh, my God. So crazy. That was a crazy game. Unfortunately, we just couldn't pick the right favorite.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's what this, this week came down to, right? We've been three and one. If we had picked the right one. We both love Detroit, but once again, the books are fucking up where it's like the line was too easy. It was six and a half all week and everyone and their grandma was hammering that line. Detroit, it was 90% of the tickets, 90% of the bets. It was like 20 to 1. The tickets to the money was on Detroit. What are the books doing? I don't get it. What are they doing? Like, they're just killing me because it's throwing me off where it's like, that looked too good to be truly even. We talked about this morning. I was like, I said you are we the suckers taking this? Detroit, like, we always go against this. It felt too easy. And nope, it is. It is that easy. Right now. That Bears team is just totally dysfunctional.
Chad Millman
Yeah, well, we said like that Bears team, they. They're so unprepared to start the game, that you really. You can't bet them. You know, it's just you. You can't because they don't have the coaching to get them ready for the game. And they were out of it before the game started. It was over. Week 17. There were three games. When I was looking through the Action app at the early lines for next week, when I was walking up to my office after the Bills game, immediately I looked at that Atlanta game plus five on the road at Washington. I don't know why. Maybe I'm a sucker because I felt like the commanders were terrible and Penix was awesome. But maybe this is where it's a dead number and it's not the Eagles and maybe that's the favorite we play. I'm at a loss right now. Do you have thoughts on that?
Simon Hunter
I don't have an opinion on it, but I feel like you're probably right where that line does look fishy. Where, you know, I'm assuming I'll have this model out at three, three and a half, because I agree with you. I think he looked much better than I anticipated. And this is a tough spot, though. Rookie, second start, primetime game in Washington. But we expect Washington coming off that win to, you know, semi, have a letdown. But they just survived a 5 turnover. So I don't know. I don't know how to really read that one, but interesting number to open at five for the books.
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's a real middleman number there. Middle of the ground number, middle of the road. Having a hard time with it. I looked at the Rams as favorites, four point favorites against Arizona. This felt like, all right, like now.
Simon Hunter
It'S already a five. It's.
Chad Millman
It's a four. I'm seeing. Jesus Christ. I missed it already. So I was clearly on the right side there.
Simon Hunter
Like, this is a nice spot for the Rams. That. Yeah, I mean, Kyler. I don't know if Kyler's crying on the bench end of that Carolina game, but they basically found out that their, their season's over.
Chad Millman
Yeah, they're done and like now LA.
Simon Hunter
And Connor got hurt, I believe.
Chad Millman
Yeah. And LA is in the driver's seat. So that looked like a good one for me. The last one that I still don't.
Simon Hunter
Mind it as long as it's under six. But you're right, there's no rush to bet it now. That's already been hit.
Chad Millman
Right. The last one on my radar was Green Bay as a one and a half point dog at Minnesota. I think I think Minnesota is getting lucky right now. Like, I think Green Bay, I look at that team, I don't know why I think they're so good, but if I can get Green Bay as a dog at any point, I want to take them.
Simon Hunter
Interesting. Yeah, I was, I was ready to jump off the Green Bay train because I'm probably gonna end up taking them tomorrow night. I know. We have convinced me. So I don't want to give away too much because we're doing a show tomorrow. People should check it out on YouTube. But yeah, this, this packers team, they're going to be everyone betting on. Right? Because I think people have your mindset. The Vikings, that to me was a scheduled loss and they still somehow stole it there at the end. Like Sam Darnold getting destroyed, eaten up, throwing absolute dimes down the sideline to Justin Jefferson. Like that. The Station Anseller. Read that there's been two quarterbacks in NFL history to go to a new team and win the more than 13 games in their first season. Peyton Manning with Denver and then Steve McNair his first year with the Ravens in 06. It was like, holy shit, this is truly a wacko world we're living in right now.
Chad Millman
Sam Darnold, like, but you know what's interesting about him? There's things that they're doing on offense that are brilliant. There's also things that they're doing because his arm is so freaking strong. Like he is throwing these outs across the field from the opposite hash on a rope. And these are 15 yard outs. They're not these short five yard outs that so many guys throw now that they can do because his arm is so good like that is. He's throwing it 50 yards in the air for 15 yard gains. It's. It's pretty astonishing.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I mean, obviously Kevin O'Connell deserves to be catching the year, but this, even some of this stuff, he's probably just in the back of mine. Like, I never would have expected this with this kid.
Chad Millman
Oh, of course. We talk about, you know, cats grin or whatever.
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
Did you see when they were reading that stat you just said on the air, he was walking across and he was clapping and he was like almost smirking. He was like. Got away with that one.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it's just a real predicament they put the Vikings in now because, you know, Sam Darnold, this is the dream for him when he was coming out of college, like we all knew he had the arm talent. He was a 21 year old at the time who Were like, okay, if he gets reps can figure it out. He could be a stud in this league. And he went through years of just psychological warfare. Like this guy basically got caught on camera saying that he was seeing ghosts and couldn't live it down for. I don't even know what was that five years, six years. And his confidence level right now, I mean there's only one person more confident was about Sam. Don't Colin Cowherds like those two guys are peak right now because it's. It's insane what we've seen from him this season. Like even in my wildest dreams I could never have seen this season come from. So that's my fear right now with this number chat is that Green Bay will be the public side. And I think people have the same mentality view of this Vikings team keep getting caught. And I'm the other way where I'm like this has everything, everything about this has lined up for them to be the one seed and then losing in their first round or the second round whenever they play the Bucks or the Eagles or somebody because it's like you said their, their luck right now. And the one score games has just been insane. Every one score game, they somehow find a way to win. Whether it's overtime or you know, the last minute drive by Sam Darnold and then making the stop defensively, like it's just been all clicking for this Vikings team and it's. It really is crazy at this point. So I can't get there with you with Green Bay right now. I'm a little spooked about this Vikings team.
Chad Millman
I had the Seahawks plus three and a half and from early in the week and, and I loved this game for the Seahawks at plus another game.
Simon Hunter
The books moved at two and a half for a day and a half. Got slaughtered.
Chad Millman
Yeah, exactly. And. And that's why we didn't talk about it for the contest. Like you didn't love it because. Because it moved and we were both worried about Geno Smith. And so once it had gone off the three and a half but in the end I'm like, oh shit, Gino's gonna throw a pick six here like an easy one. I'm gonna lose this fucking bet. All right, so who are you looking at?
Simon Hunter
I'm grabbing cowboys right now. It's seven and a half. I don't know what the deal is with Hertz. I don't know how banged up he is. If this is going to be Kenny Pickett, if they're going to be cautious Here we just talked about. I don't know what the Eagles are playing for at this point. Like, yes, they want to win this game, but, you know, we've seen time and time again this, this rivalry. Like, even when the Cowboys are playing their backups, they play hard in this one. So it's just really picking the number. It's seven and a half. Me and Chad hope what happens tonight does happen where the Cowboys either went outright or cover the number. This will definitely be six and a half. And then if it's obviously Kenny Pickett, who knows? Could be four and a half if it's Kenny Pickett and keep dropping. So this is just a number I'm gonna grab now just because it's a key number and there's just so much up in the air and I just.
Chad Millman
Want to emphasize, like, that's what people need to do. We took the Chiefs last week at two and a half not knowing what was going on with Mahomes, and it turned out to be he was playing and they went going away and we had the plus two and a half from early in the week when there was uncertainty.
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So that's just what I'm grabbing now. Again, I don't want to hit these games too much just because we're going through it. Obviously convince me. But yeah, in a normal year, I would be hammering the Steelers on Christmas. They are right now a plus two dog. So that's another thing. I don't know what to do where it's like the simple person, the dumb guy is. Well, it's Mahomes under three and you always take Mahomes under three and it's like this guy's been money with the favorites this year. So it's. It's tough for me to fight through that one. That's when we're going to break down obviously more.
Chad Millman
Well, look, here's. Here's one thing I will say, and I said this on Convince me this morning before we went on air. What kind of world are we living in where you can't even count on fading Mahomes as a more than three point favorite, which you have normally been able to do, and he's won two weeks in a row, is a more than three point favorite and you can't count on betting on Mike Tomlin as a underdog, especially as a big dog in this Raven Steelers rivalry, and he's lost two weeks in a row as a plus four and a half, plus five and a half, plus six and a half dog. So now we've Got Rock meeting the hard place next week where you were dying to bet on Mahomes at under three.
Simon Hunter
I'm take. That's what I was about to say, though. I took the two.
Chad Millman
You did?
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Because my whole thought process is it is a Mahomes under three. And we talked about that. Russell Wilson might have turned back into a pumpkin because we.
Chad Millman
He hasn't had George Pickens. What if he has George Pickens this week?
Simon Hunter
That could be the difference. But he. He has just made such poor decisions where they were thriving because he was being smart, protecting the ball and not putting them in a bad position. And that's. He just put them in such bad positions like. I still can't believe he didn't cover that number. It just totally went sideways. They're about to go up 147 against the Ravens. He has that bad fumble and then after that he's just chasing the rest of the game. And that's. That's not. We want to rust to be so. Again, bizarre number to hang by the books, you know, another game that just jumps out of, you know, just a bizarre number of the books are hanging here early. Can get Bengals minus three against Denver on Saturday at home.
Chad Millman
So I saw that and I thought.
Simon Hunter
They were sucking us in. What is that, three?
Chad Millman
I looked at that and I'm like, I feel like they're playing us because Joe Burrow is so unworldly right now. He's locked in and so they're looking. They're like. Their defense is so bad.
Simon Hunter
Yeah, the worst.
Chad Millman
I feel like there's a big difference between what Sean Payton will do with Bo Nicks, who has played well against poorer's defenses versus what Stefanski can do with Dorian Thompson Robinson. So I just felt like they were inflating that a little bit more than they should. That I. I felt like they were trying to suck me in.
Simon Hunter
That's fair. It was just. It was just another game that jumped out to me where it's like the. These lines are interesting. They're hanging here because you're right. Gut instinct is just to bet this.
Chad Millman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
I could see it being three and a half and us being on Denver. So you're right. I won't have to rush to this one. That was definitely a favor that opened up that caught my attention. Here's another one we just talked about. Josh Allen might be a little banged up. Jets are plus 10. I know. It's too raw right now.
Chad Millman
Oh, God.
Simon Hunter
I'm just going to grab it just because it is plus 10. Like that's that's a huge number for a Josh Allen that might be a little banged up. But like this, this him having back to back bad games that I'm not betting on. So that's, that's the issue where it's like, I'm not going to force us to put this one in. It's just about playing this number just in case Josh Allen is banged up, if he has a brace on his finger or his elbow, whatever. Another team that it might be all locked up for this game, the Chiefs might be Pittsburgh Chad, and they might not really be playing for anything at that point. So there's just another number I'm going to play like the Cowboys just in case it does move.
Chad Millman
If anyone can find a way to screw it up, it's Aaron Rodgers and Jeff Albrecht.
Simon Hunter
That's fair.
Chad Millman
Anyone else was at it?
Simon Hunter
No, because there's like favorites. I like that. Like I'm going to save for our show. Just, I'm just worried. I'm just adjusting too much here. But Detroit's minus three and a half against the 49ers. The 49ers look like they quit years ago. Usually I would fade them on that number, but that's just a bad line. And Miami's right now is minus six against Cleveland. I kind of want to take Cleveland there, but I feel like I'm getting sucked in once again where it's like, no go Miami. But it's just, it might be cold as hell in Cleveland and now it's two out of six. Six point favorite on the road in cold ass Cleveland.
Chad Millman
Yeah.
Simon Hunter
Not take that number right now.
Chad Millman
I looked, I didn't, I didn't think about Detroit because it felt like. Because that game's in San Francisco, right?
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
Chad Millman
Yeah. It felt like someone's trying to fuck me on that and it always feels that way. Yeah. The Miami, that's what I've had today.
Simon Hunter
Was six and a half.
Chad Millman
Right. But that's the problem is like we're looking at favorites and the book is posting these numbers, knowing that they're sucking us in. And it doesn't matter because they keep losing and we keep ignoring them and the public keeps winning. Like the public favorites today were the Bills who of course we faded and we took and the Bengals who covered and the third team was Detroit. I looked at Miami -6. I'm like, yeah, I'm going to want to play Miami against Cleveland. And then I'm like, well, shoot, it's two in the cold and now we're just overthinking. It. So look, there's a lot to unpack, I think. I think the best idea is take the Rams, take Dallas plus seven and a half because we don't know what happened with her. So I get the good number. I like your idea for Kansas City minus two, but it makes me a little nervous. But we'll break it down more On Tuesday at 11:00am Eastern. Early show for Christmas Eve. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Catch our next episode live a special early time on Tuesday, Christmas eve Day at 11am Eastern on Action Network's YouTube channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate Review Subscribe Leave us. 5 stars say whatever you want. Feedback as a gift until Tuesday. Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about.
Unknown Speaker E
Has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
Simon Hunter
70,000 people are here, and Bob Dylan.
Chad Millman
Is the reason for it.
Unknown Speaker H
A Complete Unknown is now a Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominee for best picture.
Chad Millman
For anyone who's gonna hold your attention on the stage, you have to kind of be a freak.
Simon Hunter
Are you a freak?
Chad Millman
Hope so.
Unknown Speaker H
Timothy Chalamet astonishes as Bob Dillard, and critics rave. Edward Norton is absolutely fantastic.
Simon Hunter
Turn it down.
Unknown Speaker H
Pay L Don't miss the movie. Critics are hailing pure cinematic magic.
Chad Millman
Make some noise.
Unknown Speaker H
BD A complete unknown. Only in theaters Christmas Day. Rated R. Under 17 on the middle without parrot.
Unknown Speaker E
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Scott Patterson
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The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 16 Released on December 23, 2024 by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Hosts:
Chad Millman
Simon Hunter
Overview
In the Week 16 episode of "The Favorites," hosted by Chad Millman and Simon Hunter from the Action Network, the duo delves deep into the intricacies of NFL betting. They review their five favorite picks, analyze why certain games were excluded from their contest, preview early lines for Week 17, and discuss the overarching trends influencing their betting strategies. The episode is rich with expert insights, candid reflections on recent bets, and strategic forecasts for the upcoming week.
Section 1: Introduction to Week 16 Betting Recap [02:27 - 06:39]
Chad Millman opens the episode by welcoming listeners to the Sunday night recap, highlighting the focus on dissecting five key bets and the reasoning behind omitted games. He introduces his co-host, Simon Hunter, emphasizing their simultaneous success in recent bets.
Notable Quote:
Chad Millman: “This is the week where we looked in the face of the gambling gods and the trends of Favorites dominating and we said screw you good teams with great quarterbacks. We will not be intimidated.” [02:49]
Section 2: Early Loss Analysis – Rams vs. New York Jets [06:40 - 15:06]
The hosts discuss their early loss bet on the New York Jets (+3.5) against the Los Angeles Rams. They critique the Jets' coaching decisions, particularly Jeff Ulbricht's management of fourth downs and clock control, attributing the loss to strategic missteps.
Notable Quotes:
Key Points:
Section 3: Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals [15:06 - 24:16]
Chad and Simon analyze their winning bet on the Carolina Panthers (+5.5) against the Arizona Cardinals. They commend the Panthers' ground game but express concern over late-game turnovers that threatened their victory.
Notable Quotes:
Key Points:
Section 4: New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills [27:06 - 38:57]
The discussion shifts to the Patriots vs. Bills game, where Chad and Simon reflect on the unexpected underdog victory. They critique the Bills' defense and Josh Allen's performance, questioning the reliability of betting on established favorites.
Notable Quotes:
Key Points:
Section 5: Betting Trends and Future Strategies [38:57 - 52:09]
Chad and Simon examine broader betting trends, noting a significant decline in favorites covering the spread. They discuss potential reasons, including public bias towards strong teams and underestimation of underdogs. The hosts also preview potential bets for Week 17, expressing uncertainty due to fluctuating lines and team performances.
Notable Quotes:
Key Points:
Section 6: Week 17 Preview and Final Thoughts [52:09 - 56:30]
In the final segment, the hosts discuss potential bets for Week 17, including teams like the Cowboys, Seahawks, and Vikings. They express cautious optimism but acknowledge the challenges posed by inconsistent team performances and volatile betting lines.
Notable Quotes:
Key Points:
Conclusion
Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide a comprehensive and critical review of Week 16 NFL betting outcomes, highlighting the unpredictability and challenges of favoring strong teams in wagering. They underscore the importance of strategic analysis over public bias and express cautious strategies for future bets amidst fluctuating trends. The episode serves as an insightful guide for betting enthusiasts navigating the complexities of NFL odds and game outcomes.
Notable Closing Quote:
Chad Millman: “They keep losing and we keep ignoring them and the public keeps winning.” [20:42]
Disclaimer:
All betting and gambling activities should be conducted responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek help at 1-800-GAMBLER.