Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd - The Favorites: NFL Betting Recap Week 17
Host and Network Information
- Podcast Title: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
- Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter
- Network: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
- Episode Title: The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 17
- Release Date: December 30, 2024
Introduction
In the Week 17 episode of The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 17, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve deep into the outcomes of the final NFL games of the season. The discussion centers around their betting strategies, the performance of favored teams, and the implications for the playoffs. The episode is rich with insightful analysis, personal anecdotes, and expert opinions, making it a valuable listen for both seasoned bettors and casual football fans.
Week 17 Betting Picks and Results
Chad and Simon begin by reviewing their five initial picks for Week 17, analyzing why certain games were included or excluded from their contest.
-
Chargers vs. Broncos:
- Original Pick: Chargers -6.5
- Updated Line: Chargers adjusted to -5.5 before being moved to -6.5 post-submission.
- Outcome: Chargers covered, while Broncos failed to keep up.
- Notable Quote:
Chad Millman [03:30]: “Chad Millman: ... the Chargers -5 and a half in the contest. The Broncos +3 and a half. That was a real kick in the dick.”
-
Panthers vs. Bucks:
- Pick: Panthers +8.5
- Line Movement: Increased to +10.5 due to heavy money influence.
- Outcome: Panthers failed to cover, leading to a disappointing result for the hosts.
- Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter [07:24]: “...the professional money has been coming in heavy and it's been hitting for him.”
-
Falcons vs. Washington:
- Pick: Falcons +3.5
- Outcome: Falcons covered their spread.
-
Lions vs. Niners:
- Pick: Lions +3.5
- Outcome: Lions covered, aligning with their expectations.
Despite some successful picks, Chad expresses frustration over the overall performance, especially concerning underdog bets that didn’t pan out.
Line Movements and Betting Insights
A significant portion of the episode focuses on understanding the dynamics behind betting line movements and the influence of professional bettors.
-
Professional Money Influence:
- Both hosts note how large bets from professional bettors significantly sway the lines, often leading to unexpected outcomes.
- Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter [07:33]: “Simon favorites 11 two and one on the weekend...”
-
Impact on Betting Strategy:
- Chad emphasizes the importance of recognizing when lines are influenced by heavy money betting and adjusting strategies accordingly.
- Notable Quote:
Chad Millman [08:24]: “...professional money has been coming in heavy and it's been hitting for him.”
Specific Game Analyses
The hosts provide in-depth analyses of standout games from Week 17, highlighting both victories and disappointing performances.
-
Eagles vs. Cowboys:
- Outcome: Eagles secured the division and earned a two-seed without heavy betting on them.
- Chad’s Perspective:
Chad Millman [29:24]: “...Saquon Barkley get over 2000 yards. They've won the division...”
-
Bengals vs. Broncos:
- Final Drive Disappointment: A critical missed field goal in overtime led to a heartbreaking loss.
- Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter [11:12]: “...Zach Taylor was inexplicably going for the touchdown at the end of regulation instead of running out the clock.”
-
Giants vs. Eagles:
- Giants’ Performance: Drew Lock’s impressive first-half stats contrasted with the Eagles’ defensive struggles.
- Notable Quote:
Chad Millman [50:02]: “Drew Lock played exactly the way Nick Giffen was going to play. I don't mind that one. That feels like a fun one to do.”
Challenges in Betting Week 17
Chad and Simon discuss the unpredictability and challenges faced during Week 17, including:
- Unpredictable Line Movements: Sudden shifts in betting lines due to late information or large bets from professionals.
- Injuries and Player Performances: Key injuries like Shuba Hubbard’s exit significantly impact game outcomes.
- Complex Betting Decisions: Balancing between trusting initial picks versus adjusting based on emerging trends.
Looking Ahead: Week 18 Preview
The hosts briefly touch upon the anticipation for Week 18, noting the uncertainty around game schedules and the added complexity in betting due to incomplete information.
- Notable Quote:
Simon Hunter [35:34]: “Such a weird week. Like, I don't really even know where to begin.”
Personal Anecdotes and Emotional Responses
Throughout the episode, Chad and Simon share personal experiences and emotional responses to the week’s outcomes, adding a relatable and engaging layer to the analysis.
-
Chad’s Family Obligations:
Chad Millman [05:08]: “I had to go to my mother-in-law's...which meant I was totally rushed getting our picks in before the two-hour drive through the rain.” -
Simon’s Frustration:
Simon Hunter [33:11]: “I'm so depressed about these favorites continuing to win and us continuing to bet underdogs that I almost ate sugar today.”
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
Chad and Simon wrap up the episode with reflections on their performance, the state of NFL betting, and the excitement surrounding the Eagles' successful season. Despite the setbacks and frustrations, they maintain a forward-looking attitude, eager to tackle the challenges of the upcoming weeks.
- Notable Quote:
Chad Millman [30:27]: “...unless you have a ton of luck or Mahomes, you're not winning the fucking Super Bowl. It's just the way it is.”
Key Takeaways
- Line Movements: Understanding the impact of professional money on betting lines is crucial for strategic betting.
- Game Analysis: Detailed breakdowns of specific games provide insights into team performances and future expectations.
- Emotional Investment: Personal stories and emotional responses highlight the passion and challenges of sports betting.
- Future Outlook: Anticipation for upcoming weeks remains high, with a focus on adapting strategies to evolving scenarios.
Notable Quotes with Timestamps
- Chad Millman [03:30]: “Chad Millman: ... the Chargers -5 and a half in the contest. The Broncos +3 and a half. That was a real kick in the dick.”
- Simon Hunter [07:24]: “...the professional money has been coming in heavy and it's been hitting for him.”
- Simon Hunter [11:12]: “...Zach Taylor was inexplicably going for the touchdown at the end of regulation instead of running out the clock.”
- Chad Millman [29:24]: “...Saquon Barkley get over 2000 yards. They've won the division...”
- Simon Hunter [33:11]: “I'm so depressed about these favorites continuing to win and us continuing to bet underdogs that I almost ate sugar today.”
- Chad Millman [30:27]: “...unless you have a ton of luck or Mahomes, you're not winning the fucking Super Bowl. It's just the way it is.”
Conclusion Week 17 of the NFL season brought a mix of triumphs and disappointments for bettors Chad Millman and Simon Hunter. Their candid discussions offer a transparent look into the complexities of sports betting, underscored by passionate football analysis and personal reflections. As they navigate the challenges of Week 18 and beyond, their insights remain a valuable resource for anyone engaged in the thrilling world of NFL betting.