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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
Foreign.
- [00:09]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network live from our Tommy John Home Studios. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. It is our Sunday night episode. We're going to review for one last time this football season the five picks we put into the contest. They are reflective of our entire season so far. We're going to dissect a little bit about why we left some games out, but that is not the main event. The main event is we're going to preview the early lines we already like for Wild Card playoffs. Some of them are moving already across key numbers. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [00:54]
Simon Hunter
Hello Chad. What a day brother.
- [00:57]
Chad Millman
Took 18 weeks, man. Prior to today, we had 17 weeks of dogs, the bed of favorites playing perfectly of living through the exact opposite of everything we had relied upon as betters for years. Years. And then today, the dogs, they finally started barking. The Bears covered. The Cowboys covered. The Jags covered. The Saints covers. The Patriots covered. The Panthers covered. Even the Texans as dogs against the Tennessee Titans covered. Of course, the Giants did not cover. Somehow the Giants ended up in our final five even though like every other game looked more attractive because the Giants were already playing all their backups and their third stringers so it didn't matter who they were playing. I don't know how we ended up with that. We did have the Panthers, which is great because we've been banking on them for weeks. We had the Jags, we had the Chiefs. That was a bit of a bummer, but everyone seemed to like them so they all took a hit. We're two and two on the day with the Vikings plus three and a half. Tonight, let's break it down. More importantly, we're going to talk about what we are seeing for any of the early playoff lines. We got four lines posted for the four games that we know are set. Obviously we're waiting on two NFC matchups tonight based on the Vikings and the Lions results. Catch every episode of the favorites live on YouTube. For those on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problems. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Let's start with some housekeeping. People want to know performance how we did during the year. It was not pretty all the time. Foxhole started out 0, 6, ended 8, 8 and 2. Simon says 9, 8 and 1. Executive decision 5 and 13. Big balls. Bet of the week presented by Tommy John. Started 4, 0, ended 8 and 10. That's what happens when you're constantly betting home underdogs. We'll give out the final record from the contest at the end of the show. It's not going to be good. New York Giants plus two and a half at Philly. How do we end up with the Giants? Of all the dogs that, like, had things locked up or needed to win to stay, like, the Giants were the only ones who were, who were never in it.
- [04:22]
Simon Hunter
I mean, they were down four. They had a chance at the end there and they obviously punted the ball back to the Eagles. I don't think they ever got the ball back. But yeah, bet a bad number was a bad bet. We basically been on a team that, you know, should have realized they came off their super bowl. And yeah, our, our quarterback, Drew Locke in that first half did nothing. Basically put up a goose egg. And Tanner McKee didn't even play that great, but he played well enough to get them to 17 points, which, you know, I guess they won. They got 20 at the end there. But yeah, Eagles, like you just said, Eagles playing their backups, the Giants and playing their backups for weeks look like the, the Giants were the team that was rusty. So yeah, that was one in. Obviously it's even more brutal. And that's the only dog that doesn't cover the early slate. So it, it stinks. We had a lot of dogs we liked this week. Ended up on a bad one at a bad number. Did not come through bad, very bad.
- [05:18]
Chad Millman
All bad all the way around because we liked. We talked about the Bears, we talked about the freaking Saints, like the number of parlays we had on the money line and, and on these underdogs to cover. The Giants were barely in any, any of these things for me, but whatever, at least it's over. Malik Neighbors did set a Giants Record for most receptions in a season. And the announcers were making such a big deal about this because really it's their job. And what else are you going to do? Can you think of a Giants receiver in history that's actually worth fawning over other than Odell, who is not historically great or even great for longevity? Can you think of one?
- [06:09]
Simon Hunter
Plaxico, man, come on, dude.
- [06:12]
Chad Millman
Come on. I'm thinking historically great. Like the way. And. And this, by the way, Tumor. No, the answer to my next question will prove my point because they were making such a big deal. Malik Neighbors franchise record for most receptions in a season. That's a big deal. Oh my God. It's so amazing. The Giants such a historic franchise. I could not think of anybody who is worthy as a great receiver, a Hall of Fame caliber receiver for the New York Football Giants. And then because I'm like, why? Who cares? Like it's the freaking Giants, right? Then they gave the answer to who set the record. Do you know who it was?
- [06:54]
Simon Hunter
Who had the Giants record or the.
- [06:56]
Chad Millman
NFL Giants record for most receptions in a season?
- [07:02]
Simon Hunter
That's shocking. It's not Odell.
- [07:05]
Chad Millman
Steve. Steve Smith. And not the Steve Smith. You're thinking of the one who's finalist for the holidays.
- [07:12]
Simon Hunter
He was on the Eagles. Steve Smith.
- [07:14]
Chad Millman
Steve Smith. I think he went to like USC or something.
- [07:16]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [07:17]
Chad Millman
Was it early 2000s?
- [07:19]
Simon Hunter
Oh, yeah.
- [07:19]
Chad Millman
Like that's the guy who set the record. So that says all you need to know about how much this team needs a reset.
- [07:26]
Simon Hunter
I don't know, it's. I'd be excited. Like they. They got their receiver. Now they just need an offensive line and a quarterback.
- [07:33]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [07:34]
Simon Hunter
Good luck, Giants.
- [07:35]
Chad Millman
Ask the Bears how that's going. You just need an offensive line. You just need a quarterback. You got your receivers. You're fine on the edges. You just need those two things. Easier said than done. Jacksonville at Indy. We had Jacksonville plus three and a half. You know how the people who run the media, all the NFL executives who decide when they're really going to what games on red zone, how little they think of Jacksonville and Indy, even though it was a riveting game, because in the first half, despite multiple lead changes and a field goal less than 40 seconds in the half, I think out of red zone, I saw maybe three plays from this game, they would just go to it. Like when, you know, after the fact, they weren't going to it in real time, they'd show you the. The highlight. But this was a great game played exactly the way we thought it Would.
- [08:34]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it was a corner, definitely a corner TV at the Sportsbook was me and a couple other guys all huddled around it. I mean, the funniest thing was that next to that TV in the corner was that Buck Saints game. I think after maybe the first quarter, they moved it to the main tv. It was like, okay, this because people are going wild about, you know, Survivor contests and everything like that. I mean, it really was a really fun day at the Book, sweating out Survivor contest. People like us who are betting dogs. Like, there's a lot of dog love in the building today. And, um, yeah, it was. It was pretty surreal coming down the wire for a lot of those games. So, yeah, I get what you're saying, though. Definitely was not. You know, they went to overtime and I think maybe five of us knew that because even red zone didn't cut into it in overtime. And I thank God I didn't text you. I was going to text you. But basically they go to overtime and they Colts get the ball first. And I just in my mind was like, oh, my God, here, here. Me and Chad go again. And, you know, another game we did today went to overtime. So at the same time I was just like, oh, my God, deja vu. Two dogs going over time. But yeah, like, we're hoping Chad looks like it's the year of the dog because, you know, they've got a big fourth down. Stop that Jags team. And, you know, got the field goal in overtime. But Mac Jones, man, like, it was crazy how he kept getting us back from the dead. We kept needing touchdowns from him. He kept doing it. Got that field goal at the end and go to overtime. And yeah, on 4th and 22 through a nice middle of the field, 15 yard pass just to end the game, put us out of our misery. No pick six, no. No strip sack, no passing behind. So. Felt good, you know, bet a good number. You know, I had a ton of money on four and a half, a bunch of money on four, obviously some money on the three and a half. And I'm just like, oh, my God, I'm gonna lose all these numbers. And it was nice. Nice that it kind of felt like the game went as it should. The Colts just don't cover against the Jaguars. It's bizarre. But we love those type of trends and I'm happy it came through for us and the fans.
- [10:35]
Chad Millman
Here's a theory. So ever since Mac Jones started playing, this team has played with more fire, more passion. They were scrappier, more energized, seem to be Having so much more fun than when Trevor Lawrence was playing. Right. And you think back to Doug Peterson when he was the Eagles coach. When did he have his greatest success? The the six seven, eight week run after the superstar MVP caliber quarterback Carson Wentz went out and he had Nick Foles backup quarterback. Everyone's rallying around the guy. Is it possible that Doug Peterson is a better scrappy, not as talented quarterback coach then he is a uber talented quarterback head coach?
- [11:34]
Simon Hunter
No, what helped him is he got to play Tennessee to the last five weeks. So you got two wins there and obviously me and you joked about that Colts team is just atrocious. Like Brian Thompson Jr. Is just such, it's crazy different levels you guys are at. He's at such a different level than anyone that could even defend him on the Colts team. So yeah, Mac Jones, he knew the assignment. Just throw it down to Brian Thompson Jr. He'll get it. And yeah, he saved our ass today because I, I'm not going to lie, they drove to fill that opening possession, scored a touchdown, the Colts and I was like well we basically need Mac to answer. And he did. And you know we, we didn't even talk about yet that Panthers game. But you know there a lot of things happen in the two minute warning in both these games and in this game, you know I think they're down seven at halftime because you know they kicked the ball back 25 able to drive the field and get a field goal. So tough, tough when you're always behind it. But it's like we always say, like we trusted the number, trusted the spot and yeah, it's nice when it comes through the, the number literally landed exactly. We thought it should be, we said the number should be three. It was three and a half. We took the value and it came through.
- [12:38]
Chad Millman
The announcers on the Texans Titans games said something interesting. They talked about Davis Mills and him trying to perform so well. The Texans and Davis Mills said to them, he's like look, these games might not mean anything but to someone like me it's extra time in the league as a backup quarterback if I play well.
- [13:02]
Simon Hunter
Same thing.
- [13:03]
Chad Millman
What's that?
- [13:04]
Simon Hunter
I said Carson Wentz said the same thing.
- [13:06]
Chad Millman
Did he? Well, he might have cut his time in half. Mac Jones, I feel like gave himself another five years in the league with his performance. Six weeks.
- [13:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [13:14]
Chad Millman
Jonathan Taylor by the way had 177 yards rushing in his last four games of the year. He averaged 156 yards rushing per game. Pretty amazing. Quietly dominated at the end of the year, all the talk about Derrick Henry and Saquon and even Bijan, who had 170 yards rushing. Today, we're going to get to that game. Jonathan Taylor, nice job. And by the way, even with all the, the touchdown, you know, drama, still had five touchdowns in those four games.
- [13:49]
Simon Hunter
I mean, Cooks for. I want to give Cooks love for the Bills as well. I think he had 16 touchdowns. Matt Mitchell, I think he set the Bills record. Pretty, pretty insane year for running backs.
- [13:58]
Chad Millman
Really was really incredible year. Like, really. And Kyron Williams, who didn't even play.
- [14:03]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [14:04]
Chad Millman
Amazing.
- [14:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [14:05]
Chad Millman
All right, Carolina, Atlanta. So we had Carolina plus eight and a half. Game of the day, bet of the day, team of the day. You know, you mentioned you were at the sportsbook. My younger son plays rec league basketball. It doesn't. It's like, it's just him and his buddies fucking around. But it's like an organized league and the games are really fun because he's playing with all his buddies that, you know, we've known in various stages throughout school. And obviously he's gonna go to college next year cause he's a senior in high school. So my wife and I wanna go to these games because it's fun to see all these kids that, you know, goofing around and, you know, hanging out and, you know, acting like idiots together. But of course, like it's happening from 3:30 to 4:30. So I bring my phone to the game and I'm watching the end of the game and I've got my notebook out and one of the kids is like, what are you doing? Are you scouting? Like, he thought I was taking notes on the other team. I'm like, I'm working. And this game was going back and forth on my little tiny screen. And like, I'm going to say it right now, I think we're fucked next year because we talk so much about the Panthers heading into the season. They became the team we thought they would be. But it wasn't until midway through the season after everyone has stopped listening to us or just thought we were idiots. So now we're going to start next year talking about the Panthers again because we love this team. We love this team. Even Dave Canale said we got our guy. He finally admitted it after Bryce Young's game today. He was awesome.
- [15:42]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I think for the most part though, people jumped on board. I would say I went from getting, I don't know, 50 death threat hate DMS and Twitter replies about them to some nice things said to us about us. Like Knowing when to jump back in about how much they love and enjoy betting this Panthers team and how they were going to ride with us one last time today. And yeah, they, you know, they're a savior in the. The Moneyline parlay. Right. They came through big time. And that was another game though. Made me sick my stomach. Right. We're dominating the first half and they basically gave up 14 points in a minute 50 seconds or a minute 45 seconds. It was like this is why people hate betting this team. It's like you do everything right. Brush young, play so well and your defense just totally lays an egg and rolls over in the final two minutes. They just done it consistently this season. Like they just are so bad in the two minute drill. But Bryce Young, man, what a game. You know, the throws he makes. Even today, running the ball like he just looks so confident and comfortable in this game. And it's like that's. That was probably the most fun part about watching it.
- [16:53]
Chad Millman
The past five, six weeks he has smiled, he's confident, he's making just baller throws really amazing. Throws down the seams on the sidelines. So accurate finding guys in the end zone. How about that play? I can't remember if it was in the first half or the second half where he threw the ball and before the guy had caught it, he did what Lamar did yesterday. Turned around, had his back to the play and had his arms in the air signaling touchdown. Like the guy's just loving playing right now. So here's my question for you. The Falcons come close to winning the division. Only had a few games with Michael Penix, who I would say was good ish. Like I think people can be fooled into believing he was better than he was because his arm is so good and he can just whip the ball. But he also was incredibly inaccurate.
- [17:49]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [17:50]
Chad Millman
And didn't make great decisions all the time. Obviously only had a few games. Meanwhile, The Panthers finished 5 and 12. Which one of these teams do you think has more optimism about next year?
- [18:07]
Simon Hunter
Probably still Atlanta because they have a lot of pieces in place where I agree. I'm excited for the Panthers. Like I think they know what they need to do. Right. Just spend all their money on the defensive side. Like the offense went healthy. Like Chuba harbor will be back. You know, I don't know what the deal is with the rookie they drafted this year. He kept getting injured and I think he re got re injured this season when he came back. You know, they have a lot to build around.
- [18:30]
Chad Millman
Xavier Leggette.
- [18:32]
Simon Hunter
No, that's the wide receiver. They drafted a running back.
- [18:35]
Chad Millman
Oh, oh, right. That kid from Texas, Jonathan. I forgot his name, but yeah, stud.
- [18:41]
Simon Hunter
Like probably. Probably the best running back. Brooks. There we go. Thank you.
- [18:45]
Chad Millman
That's right.
- [18:45]
Simon Hunter
That's right. Yeah. But I told you their biggest issue is that there was no secret that this stretch, you know, these last eight games, feeling was the best receiver.
- [18:56]
Chad Millman
Yes.
- [18:57]
Simon Hunter
Like, there's no doubt about it. And that's. That is a problem when your best receiver is a dude who. We think he'll be back next year, he should come back. But it's not. It's not great. You're not. You don't want to be in a position where you have a guy in his mid-30s as your best receiver. But yeah, the. The Atlanta thing, you know, not that we knew they were going to lose here, but I talked about the numbers on Penix when you really dived into it and broke it down. He does look good on film when you break it down and look at the numbers. There are things he struggles with. Like he's not that accurate of a quarterback as people think. And we kind of saw in this game, right. He was a little inconsistent. Even though he put up a ton of points, he had basically, I mean, second and five, second and four every time he had the ball. Like, Robinson dominated that game. Like we thought he would.
- [19:43]
Chad Millman
70 yards. It's like, I think the Panthers. Panthers gave up 200 yards rushing the, the. The final six weeks of the year.
- [19:52]
Simon Hunter
So, yeah, it's. Again, I'm just so excited for the Panthers where they really made us look like straight idiot fools for nine weeks, 10 weeks there. And then you kind of saw now what we saw coming in the season, which is like, this team had a ton of potential, ton of upside, and just a huge drive for them. Like, we talk about all the time, like, these bad teams. You win this type of game, just like years ago with Detroit Lions and this exact scenario, you win this type of game, it sets a tone for the upcoming season and the motivation, guys, because, like, we figured all the time how human this is. Like, again, we talk about the. The hangover of the Super Bowl. I saw a great quote by Debo Samuel where he loses the Super Bowl. He couldn't leave his house. He said he was so depressed for a month. And it was like, holy shit, we got OTAs. Like, that's how quick the season comes on you where it's like, he said he couldn't get it. He still was not at the funk even coming to this year. He Said he just could not get out of that super bowl funk. So setting the tone for the upcoming season. It's the ultimate high vibes. And there's no doubt me and you are going to be sucked back in on this Panthers team. I'm just so happy and excited about this team's future.
- [20:58]
Chad Millman
Oh, my God, we're so screwed. Like, we are going to be betting so many. Like, it's going to be so terrible. You're not wrong about the Super Bowl. So I had lunch on Friday with friend of the pod, Seth Wickersham, and I did pitch him on the Sean McVay and Baker Mayfield idea that I said I wanted to pitch him on. Totally liked it. Then he tried to piss in it. Like, the old joke is, an editor walks up to an oasis in the desert with a writer, and the writer's like, oh my God, it's perfect. And the editor jokes, oh, wait, I can make it better. And then he starts to piss in it. And I gave Seth this brilliant idea. He's like, oh my God, I love this idea. And then he starts coming up with these other things. I'm like, guy, what's the matter with you? I'm giving you a gift. And yet he still tried to make it something that it wasn't. We were talking about the super bowl between the Chiefs and the Niners and how people forget that block kick, right? And like, the Niners were so close. Kyle Shanahan was out coaching Andy Reid and beating Patrick Mahomes. And like one block kick leads to one drive, leads to a game tying field goal. It's like, it's, it's, it's, I, I, I understand it. I do. The Panthers are going to be in that spot one day. Kansas City plus ten and a half at Denver. Look, we loved it. Everybody loved it. And Carson Wentz couldn't stand the field. The Chiefs d couldn't get off the field. First quarter and a half, The Chiefs had six plays. The Broncos had three touchdowns. Bo Nix was 18 for 18 with nearly 200 yards and three touchdowns before he had an incompletion like it was dead from the start. Congrats to you, by the way, because I'm convinced me you gave away the under 40 and a half and it played out. The Chiefs did exactly what you said they were going to do. Run the ball, burn the clock. It just so happened the Broncos tried to score every time they had the ball except like the last seven minutes of the game.
- [23:06]
Simon Hunter
And that's why I love veteran, veteran coaches, though Andy Reid was just so brutally honest. He's like if I, if they would allow me to play with a running clock in this game, I would play with running clock. And I didn't honestly think the Chiefs would just no show like they did. But I do think it was the Bone Bonix effect where you know we talked about coming to this game. Bonix had been struggling down the stretch here and we're seeing here that in that first half Bo Nix like you just said, he was 18 of 19, 282 yards, three touchdowns, 153 passer rating. Like what are we going to do Chad? So that was dead from the, dead from the start like you said. Carson Wentz, I think he went three and out on three straight drives. On the flip side, Bo Nick scored three straight touchdowns and terrible bet. You know a day where a bunch of the ten point dogs came through our big dog once again we just can't hit the mark, man. It's all season long.
- [24:06]
Chad Millman
That's what it's like. Yeah, like all the fact that the Saints covered, the Patriots covered, the Bears covered.
- [24:15]
Simon Hunter
We knew though the Chiefs like when Evan told us they were the most bet.
- [24:19]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I know when I saw that this morning.
- [24:21]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm like, I know but I was already like I already made my bet. I kind of had delaying it like I, I honestly couldn't get out of it. So that was definitely one that hurt where it's like man, we saw the signs telling us to get out and we kept, we pushed ahead where yeah, the, the biggest regret definitely of the day is not having the Bears or the Cowboys where we both love those. The Cowboys one scared me off though because of Trey Lance. But yeah, the Bears wanted to just hurt because it was like that was the dream. We just knew how do they were. We talked about it. I let the trend scare me off. But yeah to me like again we didn't, we didn't have the contest that was my favorite game of the day. That Bears game. It had everything, the highs and the lows. Why I love betting of like I won and died that moneyline a thousand times on the Bears and they're just, they were the chaos team of the year. I mean we joke that that Hell Mary they were. Would they have four wins going to that Hell Mary or five wins?
- [25:13]
Chad Millman
No, they stopped winning after that.
- [25:15]
Simon Hunter
Right. That's what I mean. So that was their first win since that Hail Mary and it's like, it's just crazy how a little play like that can determine a whole team season.
- [25:23]
Chad Millman
Eleven in a row. And they. I was watching this game again. Watching this game, you know, at the West Hartford rec league basketball game. And everybody's saying to me, like, you can't just watch the. Watch the kids. You got to watch the game. I'm like, I'm working. I am actually working. And I watched the Bears. They ran. They, like, managed the clock. They spiked the ball. They got the field goal. They ran around like they had won the super bowl or the West Hartford rec league championship, acting like they had never won before, because they really haven't. And now the good news is the Bears are going to interview Thomas Brown, the current interim head coach, to be their new head coach. Super excited about that. This is all going to go great. There's one in honor of Virginia Hall McCaskey, who turned 102 today. Can you believe that the NFL is 105 years old? She's been around for 102 of those years.
- [26:27]
Simon Hunter
I mean, it's good to be rich.
- [26:32]
Chad Millman
I wonder how liquid they are, though. They're not like Josh Harris, you know. You know, like the Harris Blitzer Capital rich. They're like, you know, football rich. I don't think they can pull a lot out of that yet.
- [26:46]
Simon Hunter
I feel like this whole country is built on people buying things they don't have money for. It's just loaning money out to the assets they already own. So I'm sure they're doing all right.
- [26:55]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I'm not gonna cry for them. My favorite incentives from today, Geno Smith got $6 million in incentives. We talked about it the other day. 4 million for his. For getting more than 185 passing yards in the game. That got him over the season. Total he needed to get for a $2 million incentive. Finished the season above 70% completion percentage. Got a $2 million incentive for that. Got. Got the Seahawks to 10 wins. Got a 2 million incentive for that. Mike Evans got his incentive for a thousand yards. He went crazy on the last play of the game. That was amazing.
- [27:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that was great.
- [27:30]
Chad Millman
What I've loved with this is how unabashedly aware the players are of their incentives and how excited their teammates are for them. But then also how the announcers are just like, von Miller just got 1.5 million for that sack. Calais Campbell just got 300,000 for that sack. Jim Nance was so excited when Cortland Sutton got his 89th catch. He's like, he just got $500,000 for that catch. Like, it was insane how excited people were.
- [27:56]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, the Von Miller one might have been my favorite. He literally just one handed push. Drake maybe. And then he just knew right away that that counts as a sack. It was just a very veteran, awesome moment for Von Miller getting his money.
- [28:09]
Chad Millman
All right. Our final record in the contest. We are nothing if not accountable people. Don't ever say we're not. We talk about our records every single week. We have Minnesota three and a half in the contest. 39 and 50 on the year across 17 completed weeks. Finished with five weeks. Finished five weeks with a winning record. Just terrible.
- [28:31]
Simon Hunter
It's not as bad as I thought though.
- [28:33]
Chad Millman
Really?
- [28:33]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Honestly, I. I was expecting the worst. Brother, we've been terrible this year.
- [28:37]
Chad Millman
Yeah. I mean, these favorites have just crushed us. Absolutely crushed us.
- [28:43]
Simon Hunter
It's our first losing season. It hurts, but we'll bounce back next year. Don't lose faith, people.
- [28:47]
Chad Millman
Well, the big question is going to be, do we overcompensate? Is this year in our head? Are we betting road favorites? Are we afraid to bet the dogs? How much do we think like the 30 yard line start or the five dogs today?
- [29:03]
Simon Hunter
Chad, we're not. We have not changed at all.
- [29:06]
Chad Millman
That's true.
- [29:08]
Simon Hunter
What are you talking about?
- [29:12]
Chad Millman
All right. Wild card lines. The one NFC line that we have so far, Green Bay plus three and a half at Philly.
- [29:19]
Simon Hunter
Your first instinct, I mean, they're basically begging you to take Green Bay. And I'm gonna throw a quick, quick penny on the Eagles right there. It was three. The lines moved basically off of a couple key injuries. Right. Jordan Love got. Watson got hurt. I think another receiver of theirs might have got hurt in this game. You know, we already talked about Jerry or Alexander missing this, this game. He's done for the season pretty much. So, yeah, you know, they're missing their deep threat wide receiver, the number one cornerback, and their quarterback's banged up. Like this number is going to keep going up if the news comes out, it's anything worse and they might be playing a backup, which I honestly don't hate for Green Bay if they're stuck in that position. Because I think me and you both agree where Jordan Love's just been shaky. Even that game before he got hurt, he did not look comfortable. Like he never got into a rhythm against that Bears team and Eagles. You know, as much as people want to bash him about some of their weaker competition, they still are the number one past defense this season. So it's like if, if Green Bay wants to lean into them, just running the ball, that would be nice for them. But to me Yeah, I can already tell you this number is going to be too low. Like, I honestly thought this would open a 4. I was excited to tell us to bet the Eagles at three. Still happy to take the three and a half. I can just see this going up, especially if the injury news does come out. This is going to get up to what, six or seven. Chad?
- [30:43]
Chad Millman
Yeah, My first instinct on this was we're betting the Eagles. Like, I just, I keep thinking about this defense. It's just, it's so good and in the latter half of the year it's been so dominant and I keep thinking about their defensive tackles and the strength of the Packers. Whether it's Jordan Love or anyone else is going to be Josh Jacobs running up the middle. That's how they win the game. Right? They lean into him early, they try to establish line of scrimmage, they try to get some touchdowns early in the game based on him. As soon as they go away from him, they start to struggle. We've seen that every single time. And I don't even know if they'll be able to take advantage of him as much as they have in the past because that defensive line for the Eagles is so freaking good.
- [31:28]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think you're right. We're like, that's. Eagles are going to stack the box like the burner. They've lost their burner now. Like the guy on the outside that kind of can threaten you. I know Watson hasn't had a great season because he's just been injured all the time, but you know, he tried to fight through the injury, come back today and I think he got carted out of the stadium like that's how bad whatever happened to him. So, yeah, unlucky for the packers, but again, they're the seven seed. So it's like this is a very respectable line for 7C. I think at this exact point last year against Dallas, I think we got them at an eight point dog. Right. Didn't we get. So yeah, the books are given the respect to Green Bay right now in this opening line. I think it's too much respect. They're getting good value. And my favorite meme, you'll enjoy this. Chad. Guess who's also one of five in the division other than the Green Bay Packers? Chicago Bears. So you guys have the same divisional record this season as the Green Bay Packers.
- [32:20]
Chad Millman
It's not even a rivalry. Doesn't matter. Doesn't matter. Denver Broncos. Speaking of a seven seed and a two seed and an eight point line, Broncos are eight and a half on the road at Buffalo. Give me Buffalo.
- [32:36]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And this is interesting though. Certain books have this eight and a half. A couple of books already have this at seven and a half. So it might be early professional money betting the Stanley team. But I'm right there with you. I hate it. I mean, we're so chalked to start here, but this feels like two different levels of class. And I'm happy for you. Bo Nicks, incredible game today. It felt like they ran just two coverages the entire game. The Chiefs, they simply did not try in any sense of the game. And Bo Nicks, this season has been a road warrior chat. So, you know, usually we try to do our four best bets for wild card weekend. I don't know if this will be one of my four. Maybe it'll be Chad's on the Bills, but opening line here, minus seven and a half. I got to take that with this Bills team.
- [33:17]
Chad Millman
By the way, for folks who are watching on YouTube, Simon's having some camera issues. So we apologize. He's just blacking out for a second or two, but it's not affecting audio or rhythm or our ability to talk to each other or our love for each other. By the way, we were 50 and 40 last season. So a reversal. It happens. You know, look at the worst year.
- [33:41]
Simon Hunter
In the history of dogs. What do they want from us? They know what the show is.
- [33:44]
Chad Millman
I know, I know. Does Matt Mitchell have an opinion on this Bills game? As our resident Bills expert, how does he feel about such a huge line against a Sean Payton Bonix team?
- [33:56]
C
Chad, I spend almost every playoff season consumed with anxiety about the Buffalo Bills as someone that just needs to see them win one super bowl so I can put down that heavy load for the rest of my life. However, I never worry about wild card weekend. My life will be ruined when the Bills inevitably lose at some point this playoffs. It won't come in the wild card round that I just don't see that coming. And maybe I'm inviting disaster. And like, I don't need to invite disaster. Disaster will find its way to me. I'm just not going to fucking worry about Bonix on the road. So I wish them the best of luck.
- [34:34]
Chad Millman
Let's go, Matt. Pittsburgh Steelers, they cannot move the ball on offense. They have been a train wreck for four games in a row. Simon, you had been predicting sort of Russell Wilson's moon balls being shot down to earth. They. They have been. And this past weekend against the Bengals, George Pickens couldn't catch them. Now they're going to be on the road eight and a half point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens. We know all the stats and again like we got shows Tuesday, we got shows Thursday, we got a lot to unpack. I'm not going to go into detail on the records, but we know that other than this past, the last time they just played these games are generally underdogs cover very, very short, very, very small spreads. So this is an anomaly to have this big of a number and it's entirely based on what we saw on Saturday. I think.
- [35:45]
Simon Hunter
Exactly. Only us and professionals and trend bettors are betting the Pittsburgh team. Everyone is going to throw in the Bills. With this Ravens team into their moneyline parlays, into their teasers, it doesn't get much easier. And this is basically every year chat and hey, we might get caught here. You know we did last year in this exact scenario of trying to fade Lamar round one. But we know Lamar, it's just different in the playoffs. He gets tighter and now he's facing this team that historically has been his kryptonite. I mean people act like he answered the demons in that last matchup, but it's like they're one on one on the season against this team. They split and it's like this is the defense that knows how to figure out now, you know, we don't know the status of J.J. watt at this point. That's a big deal.
- [36:29]
Chad Millman
TJ.
- [36:29]
Simon Hunter
TJ that's a big deal for me. And you're right, like that's that that guy is a huge deal against Lamar and stopping what he's so special which is creating plays on the fly with his legs. So no rush to bet it. I mean I'm going to grab it as soon as we get off this call. I'm gonna drive into Philly, grab a couple eight and a half's where I can but would be shocked if this keeps going up just because I know professional money is gonna come in on Pittsburgh. It's just to the professional side. This was gonna be the easiest bet. As soon as I saw how was laying out that Pittsburgh was gonna lose to Cincy, I was like oh my God, we're gonna get Pittsburgh at that the Ravens in round one and it's gonna be us against everyone else. Like no one's going to be back in this Pittsburgh team, especially the way they've looked and I mean we'll agree like they got lucky covering that last game. I mean it was just incredible. Incredible how they came back and covered that. But that's Life when you were kicking field goals, which is what since he did. And I think the same can be said here, Chad. It feels the type of game where Lamar might be able to move the ball up and down the field, but I think he's going to struggle against his Pittsburgh team in the red zone. And yeah, this is a big one too. We'll wait and see. It's all about the injuries, right? We, we've seen the difference since this Pittsburgh team has had a couple injuries to their defense as well. Right. Like the secondary, big deal. The defensive line, it's a big deal. So very big. Again, not rushing to make a ton of bets on this one, but I'd be shocked if this is one of our four.
- [37:51]
Chad Millman
Well, look, it's a huge deal. Like that secondary, they were getting beat up by the Bengals until T. Higgins went out.
- [37:58]
Simon Hunter
Everybody, I mean every team they played in the stretchers has been attacking that secondary, killing them.
- [38:03]
Chad Millman
So I think we need a lot of. You're going to go bet the eight and a half, but you still think the number is going to go to nine? Nine and a half.
- [38:11]
Simon Hunter
I think there's a possibility just because we talked about the injuries, like if, if there's no T.J. watt, I mean the books might have to take it to 10 to get some money resistance against this Ravens team. This is the darling of the league right now. I mean they've, they've been incredible down the stretch here. And you know that back door crazy cover they had against Cleveland, it sets a tone, right? They were sloppy and bad in that game and they, they blew him out. I mean, they dominated him in that second half. So it's just the public opinion couldn't be any lower on the Spitsburg team. I know Evan's gonna have this amazing stats. You're basically in this rare, rare era of a team that's on a four game losing streak heading into the playoffs or maybe it's five game loser streak. I think it's four. Basically teams in this exact scenario, they tend to cover in the playoffs like no one's, no one's going to buy on them. So the books are going to give you a big number. They tend to step up when they matter most, especially in the playoffs.
- [39:05]
Chad Millman
I think one of the biggest problems we had this year is because the favorites kept winning. We, we definitely, at least I did. I can't speak for you entirely, but I think we definitely let a little bit of recency bias seep into some of our handicapping more than we have in the Past and when I say we I mean me. I'm not going to speak for you.
- [39:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I had no problem. Ben favorites it definitely I definitely adjust in the sense of I was not putting as much big money as I normally would on dogs just because well we talked about I do think I need more time to dive into the whole kick Kickoff and team started the 30 and how so many teams just went for it on fourth down this season at midfield. Like it's just it was a very unique season that it's something I'm have to adjust and update my model for.
- [39:52]
Chad Millman
Last game that we have a number four Chargers three point favorites on the road at the Houston Texans. I was thinking about what this line was going to be when I was watching the end of the Raiders Chargers game. Obviously the last few weeks we've loved the Chargers and they have not been a team we've been afraid to bet as favorites on the road. I was a little surprised this number opened as big as it did. I just thought it would be closer to pick to be honest. So all of a sudden this felt I was like looking forward to betting the Chargers and I'm less looking forward to it now.
- [40:31]
Simon Hunter
I mean it's three and there, there is a lineup for Tampa Washington so we can break that one down. But yeah the this line being minus three to me that's a Chargers line like you said when it was three and a half I was like am I really gonna have to bet Houston here But a minus three, how do we not take that Chargers number like they're they're the more complete team as we head into this exact spot like Houston. They did the smart thing today. They played their starters which is one of the reasons where it's like I, I not that I hated Tennessee today, moving off of it because they were playing their starters for in Houston but it was more of like okay that's that's a smart decision. I know a lot of people might hate on it but it's like they have not found a rhythm in weeks Houston's offense so that was nice for them to get the opening drive there. But the Chargers even today, like how they dominated with exactly how we talked we said they would right. They just wait for you to make a mistake and this Houston team has made a bunch of mistakes and you know defenses know they can just shade to Nico Collins just put a guy over top of a guy underneath and you know, force CJ to beat you in other areas and he just hasn't done it down the stretch. Here, especially against good teams. So I'm with you that, you know, obviously in the perfect world, this would have been a pick. Me and you would be hammering this Chargers line. But I still think there's value on the minus 3. This number feels right. I don't want to bet Houston, so I'm hoping we can get this in our picks at the end of the week, but I'd be shocked if it stays three. I could easily see this going up to three and a half unless there is some respected professional money coming the other side. I just, I can't see this Houston team. It felt like they overachieved last year, got lucky being a weak division this year, and they're. They're basically running into a team that. It's pretty legit in this Chargers team.
- [42:11]
Chad Millman
So what I don't see a Tampa Washington line. What do you have?
- [42:14]
Simon Hunter
Sure. Right now they opened at three. So when we came on here, I said it to you. I was like, oh my God, you can get Tampa -2 and a half right now against Washington. That was a gift. Minus three is still a gift to me. Like you're getting a rookie on the road here at a field goal against a veteran Bucs team that, you know, that was their game from hell today. Everything was going wrong. They found a way like that was. As an Eagles fan, I was praying for them to blow that game. I would much rather face the Penix Atlanta team than this veteran Bucs team. So, you know, another game that was probably one of my favorite wins of the day, like that was. It was truly theater in the sportsbook. You had grown men crying about Atlanta losing and then other grown men crying because they won on their Bucks. And it was just really fun for survival pool. So, yeah, this is a Bucks team that I like this number. I want to fade Washington and I'm sure the public will come in on Washington because of what the Bucs did today and people kind of dismissing them. And I totally get Jayn Daniels the upside and we talk about the variance with him on fourth down, they could easily win this game. Like, this is a good, a strong number at plus three if you want to take it. And at two and a half, I'm way more confident on the bucket three. I'm not dying to take it, but that's. That's where I'm at right now. I like them just like the Chargers. I think they're the better team. They deserve the respect. They're unlike the Chargers. They're at home here. That feels like a really good number at home against a rookie who's on the road in his first playoff start.
- [43:45]
Chad Millman
Baker is ballin. He was not going to lose that game today. And I actually agree with you. To me, this was one of their most impressive wins of the past two seasons because they were just getting destroyed. They could have been glassy eyed and lost confidence on the sideline and been asking themselves what's happening? Why aren't we winning? Like starting to blame themselves, losing their composure that if they had one more series they probably would have covered that game. Like they just want it going away in the second half. They stopped making stupid mistakes. Bucky Irving, you know, was running wild, which I think will be in an advantage against the Commander's defense. We saw what Rico Dowdle did today, like they did not have a problem moving the ball with Trey Lance against Commander's defense. That was trying for much of the game. So don't hate it, but we're going to dig in more. A lot more.
- [44:43]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [44:43]
Chad Millman
A lot more to say. We got to do some research, some fine tuning. Got to see how these numbers move, see who's injured, see how the seedings finally play out after the Vikings and Packers game tonight. Reminder, we have the Minnesota Vikings plus three and a half in the contest. Our last pick of the year. We're going to sweat it out and what might be the best game of the year. The Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary at bet365 must be 21 or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Catch our next episode Live on Tuesday, 1:30pm Eastern on Action Network's YouTube channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate Review, Subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until Tuesday. Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.