Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 18"
Release Date: January 6, 2025
Introduction
In the latest episode of "The Favorites," hosted by Chad Millman of the Action Network and Simon Hunter, professional bettor and co-host, listeners are treated to an in-depth analysis of Week 18's NFL betting outcomes. The episode delves into the hosts' season-long betting strategies, their final Week 18 picks, and early insights into the Wild Card playoffs' betting lines. Throughout the discussion, Chad and Simon provide expert commentary, backed by statistical analysis and personal anecdotes, making it a must-listen for sports bettors and NFL enthusiasts alike.
Season Performance Overview
Chad and Simon begin by reflecting on their betting performance over the 18-week NFL season. They candidly share their unbeaten records in specific betting categories, highlighting both successes and shortcomings.
- Chad Millman: "Foxhole started out 0-6, ended 8-8-2."
- Simon Hunter: "Bet of the week presented by Tommy John. Started 4-0, ended 8-10."
Despite initial struggles, both hosts acknowledge improvement and growth in their betting approaches as the season progressed. However, they also anticipate a less favorable final record, admitting, "It's not going to be good."
Week 18 Betting Recap
The heart of the episode focuses on their Week 18 betting picks, emphasizing the underdog selections that surprisingly covered the spread.
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Underdog Successes:
- Chicago Bears: Covered despite earlier doubts.
- Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, and Houston Texans: All underdogs who successfully covered their respective spreads.
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Notable Exception:
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New York Giants: The sole underdog that failed to cover, leading to substantial discussion about the team's performance and betting decisions.
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Simon Hunter: "The Giants were the only ones who didn't cover the early slate. So it, it stinks."
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Chad Millman: Critiques the Giants' quarterback play and overall team readiness, stating, "They were already playing all their backups and their third stringers so it didn't matter who they were playing."
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Detailed Game Analysis:
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Giants vs. Eagles: Both hosts dissect why the Giants failed to cover, pointing out quarterback inefficiencies and defensive shortcomings.
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Chad Millman: "Drew Locke in that first half did nothing. Basically put up a goose egg."
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Simon Hunter: Highlights the flawed decision-making during critical game moments, such as punting the ball back to the Eagles.
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Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis: A game that went into overtime, mirroring their Week 17 analysis of similar scenarios.
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Simon Hunter: "It was pretty surreal coming down the wire for a lot of those games."
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Chad Millman: Discusses the resilience of the Jaguars and the strategic plays that led to their success as underdogs.
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Player Performances and Incentives
The discussion shifts to individual player performances, particularly focusing on incentives tied to their game statistics.
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Jonathan Taylor (Buffalo Bills):
- Achieved impressive rushing yards in the final four games.
- Chad Millman: "He averaged 156 yards rushing per game. Pretty amazing."
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Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks):
- Received multiple monetary incentives for performance metrics like passing yards and completion percentage.
- Simon Hunter: "Von Miller just got $1.5 million for that sack. It was insane how excited people were."
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The hosts commend the players' awareness and enthusiasm for their incentives, noting the positive impact on their performances.
Wild Card Playoffs Preview
Anticipation builds as Chad and Simon preview the early lines for the Wild Card playoffs. They analyze four lines already posted and discuss potential fluctuations based on upcoming game outcomes.
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Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Initial Line: Green Bay +3.5
- Chad Millman: "They were missing their deep threat wide receiver, the number one cornerback, and their quarterback's banged up."
- Simon Hunter: Predicts the line will increase due to potential injuries, stating, "This number is going to keep going up."
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Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
- Initial Line: Denver Broncos +10.5
- Chad Millman: Expresses confidence in Buffalo, citing their dominant defense.
- Simon Hunter: Agrees, emphasizing the Ravens' defensive prowess and Lamar Jackson's challenges against them.
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Initial Line: Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5
- Simon Hunter: Highlights Lamar Jackson's historical struggles against the Ravens, predicting Pittsburgh will underperform.
- Chad Millman: Agrees, noting injuries on Pittsburgh's defensive side that could benefit the Ravens.
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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Houston Texans
- Initial Line: Chargers -3
- Chad Millman: Initially favored betting on the Chargers but expresses hesitancy due to unexpected line movements.
- Simon Hunter: Maintains a nuanced view, recognizing the Chargers' strengths but cautious about Houston's improvements.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders
- Initial Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
- Simon Hunter: Seizes the opportunity to bet on Tampa, citing Washington's unpredictable performance.
- Chad Millman: Supports the decision, highlighting the Buccaneers' composure despite earlier season struggles.
Contest Record and Reflections
Chad and Simon openly discuss their betting contest records, admitting a losing streak influenced by the favorites' unexpected successes.
- Final Contest Record: 39-50 over 17 weeks.
- Simon Hunter: "It's our first losing season. It hurts, but we'll bounce back next year."
- The hosts introspect on their strategies, considering adjustments to mitigate recency bias and refine their betting models for future seasons.
Wild Card Lines Discussion
Expanding on the Wild Card previews, the hosts engage in a deeper analysis of each matchup, considering team dynamics, player health, and historical performance.
- Green Bay vs. Eagles: They debate the value of Green Bay's line in light of the Eagles' strong defense and potential lineup changes due to injuries.
- Denver vs. Buffalo: Emphasis on Buffalo's defensive capabilities and Denver's offensive inconsistencies.
- Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore: Focus on Lamar Jackson's performance against a historically tough Ravens defense and Pittsburgh's defensive injuries.
- Chargers vs. Texans: Mixed feelings about betting on the Chargers despite their season-long performance, recognizing Houston's offensive improvements.
- Tampa vs. Washington: Optimism about Tampa's performance over Washington, especially considering Washington's variable game outcomes.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
As the episode wraps up, Chad and Simon express determination to refine their betting strategies based on the season's lessons. They emphasize the importance of adaptability and continuous analysis to improve future performance.
- Chad Millman: "We're not going to change. We have not changed at all."
- Simon Hunter: Encourages listeners to maintain faith and stay updated with upcoming episodes for more insights.
The hosts also remind listeners to subscribe, rate, and review the podcast on various platforms, ensuring they stay connected for future content.
Notable Quotes
- Chad Millman [00:56]: "Prior to today, we had 17 weeks of dogs, the bed of favorites playing perfectly... Today, the dogs finally started barking."
- Simon Hunter [04:21]: "The Giants were the only ones who didn't cover the early slate. So it, it stinks."
- Chad Millman [13:14]: "Jonathan Taylor, nice job. And by the way, even with all the touchdown drama, still had five touchdowns in those four games."
- Simon Hunter [18:06]: "Probably still Atlanta because they have a lot of pieces in place where I agree. I'm excited for the Panthers."
- Chad Millman [27:28]: "What I've loved with this is how unabashedly aware the players are of their incentives and how excited their teammates are for them."
Final Thoughts
"The Favorites - NFL Betting Recap Week 18" offers a comprehensive look into the hosts' betting world, blending statistical analysis with personal insights. Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide valuable perspectives on past performances and future betting opportunities, making this episode a pivotal resource for anyone involved in NFL betting.
For more detailed analyses and future episodes, listeners are encouraged to subscribe to "The Favorites" on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and other major podcast platforms.