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- [00:00]
Adnan Virk
What's up everybody? Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [00:05]
Jason Demers
Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [00:11]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
- [00:15]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le table.
- [00:25]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:41]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network live from our Tommy John home studios. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. This is our Sunday night wildcard episode in which re review the results of our best bet so far and preview the early lines for the divisional round. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:11]
Simon Hunter
Hello, Chad. What a bounce back, brother. How we doing?
- [01:14]
Chad Millman
We're doing better. We're feeling better. I'm going to explain to you a little bit of a crisis of confidence that I had partially brought on by you. Cost me a little bit. But look, we're watching the end of this Eagles game. We had the Eagles three and a half. They're up by nine with about four something left. They got the ball to 20. I'm not saying it's over. I'm not saying anything. I'm just stating the facts. We're going to let people watch this game along as we record the podcast. We want to get to some of those divisional games that we especially already have. Line for lines forward. Talking about the Chiefs and the Texans, the Bills and the Ravens. Catch every episode of the favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get 150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary a bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia. We're 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, first game we talked about last week that we liked. Chargers minus two and a half at Houston. What a disastrous final three minutes of the first half from the Chargers from dominating to holding their own, to having CJ Backed up on the one and nearly getting him for intentional grounding in the end zone to its third and 19. He fumbles a snap, it goes over his head. He picks it up on a bounce, rolls out to the right. All the Chargers have now run towards CJ leaving a receiver wide open. First down, they go on to score. The next 30 minutes is all CJ as Justin Herbert, who we specifically bet the Chargers because we believe Justin Herbert would do a better job, a superior job of holding onto the ball and not having any turnovers in a game where the holding the ball was going to be at a premium. C.J. was brilliant in the second half. Justin Herbert, four touchdown, four interceptions, including a pick six. He had three the whole year.
- [03:51]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think you touched on it though. What decided the game. To me, it was just that simple play of that fumbled snap that went over his head. It took him. Whatever funk he was in and him not seeing the field, it snapped his confidence back. That's what that play felt like to me.
- [04:06]
Chad Millman
You're right.
- [04:07]
Simon Hunter
He definitely got away with one. That was a sack. Intentional grounding the play before.
- [04:12]
Chad Millman
Oh my God.
- [04:12]
Simon Hunter
He was not outside the tackle box. And you know, I think that's a little bit of the home team losing in that spot. The refs easily could have called that, and I'm shocked they didn't. And you're right, that, that third and 16, huge play, you know, that. That kind of decided the game just because, you know, we're not even talking about. But that Herbert, when it was six, nothing, his receivers were dropping balls and he was, you know, he kind of lost a little bit of confidence. There was forcing in there. But at one point they had multiple turnovers and they only had six points to show for it. And you kind of knew that, that Houston just got a touchdown before half here. That could be, you know, a big deal. And not only did they do that, like you said, they got 10 points, they were up 10, six head into half. And yeah, this is the game of the haters, of Herbert, a guy who Skates by and gets zero flack. This is the day that they are happy about because they can just say, look, you guys want to crown this guy as a king? I mean, there's guys who have empower rated higher than Joe Burrow, and it's like, I get they're doing it for clicks, but come on. I mean, what are we doing here? When you have him rated higher than. Than Joe Burrow and it's. It's a year of. You kind of see what you need to do. If you're the Chargers, you need to get him weapons. Like, you can't roll him out there with guys who are just dropping those passes like they were for Herbert. So, yeah, brutal bet, brutal loss. And, you know, I don't know how you felt, but heading to that game, it was like, okay, I'm feeling confident because of the side we're on. And when they got the turnovers, it made me feel them better. But then went to, like we just said, it started going sideways. I was like, oh, God, we. We. We have totally stepped into one here, and this is going to be a brutal loss. And yeah, worst, worst game I've ever seen Herbert play. I don't know about you, but that. That, to me, off top of my head, that is the worst game he's ever played.
- [05:58]
Chad Millman
How could it not be? The guy had three interceptions the entire year. He's one of three quarterbacks in the history of the NFL with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, to have 400 pass attempts and three interceptions or fewer in a season. And he throws four in a game. And I'm with you. I was making notes on this game, and I'm like, they've got multiple turnovers off the turnovers. They only had three points to show for it, including as soon as they intercepted CJ Stroud. Justin Herbert rolls right, throws across his body into double coverage.
- [06:41]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [06:41]
Chad Millman
50 yards downfield, and the Texans steal it right back. To me, that was the moment where I was like, oh, this is. This is not good. And this game, this game. And how it was so bad to watch, like, it was so. It just wasn't good. Football was the beginning of a tailspin into a mental spiral for me that led to bad decision making that ended up costing me today, which I will tell you about. But it just wasn't pretty as we got into the next game, which was the Ravens and the Steelers. And look, I think the exact decision for me this week was the Chargers, if I'm not mistaken, and the exec and the Simon says for you was the Pittsburgh Steelers. We liked him at 10. They were, they were terrible. They were everything that we were afraid of. They did not have any Mike Tomlin, rah rah magic. Russell Wilson could not convert a first down. You know, they could not do anything in the first half. 2 first downs, 9 minutes. Time of possession 1 of 5. On third down, Lamar looked unstoppable. Pittsburgh, like it looked like it didn't want to stop him.
- [07:59]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I honestly hated the decision to start the game where they elected to receive. And it's like you've been a second half team the whole season. Why not put yourself position, get the ball first in the second half. It obviously didn't matter. I think they forced a three and out anyway on the Ravens to start the second half. But it was still a bizarre situation where you're right, they basically got the ball three and out punted. And you know, Lamar, not that he wanted to settle in, but you could just tell he had a lot of energy and he, he literally was just like, I'm just going to run this myself to start this game. I'm protecting this ball. I'm going to throw them off kilt here. And you know, that was not a Lamar through the air type of game. That was really a. We are the best run blocking running team in football and we're going to show it here with me and Derek Henry and you know, Lamar is the ultimate weapon. Like we know that the guy might win his third mvp. Um, when he gets it going on the ground, it kind of settles the whole offense. And you kind of saw that even on the final touchdown to Justice Hill. It was like vintage Lamar moving around that backfield even though he knows there's what, three, four seconds on the clock.
- [09:02]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [09:02]
Simon Hunter
When he's doing that and it's just perfect read, perfect touch throw. And you're right, it's 21 nothing. I'm a sicko. I still thought mathematically weren't dead and unfortunately Pittsburgh did show up in that second half in the third quarter and they're, you know, it's 2114, 2814 and you know, Russ has the ball again, driving, and you're thinking, okay, we can get this back door and you know, we can end this day one on one. No, didn't get there. Russ, Russ gave up. I mean Tomlin too. We even talked about that. Tomlin punt him in that fourth and inches. It's just like everything was just cowardice to me about Pittsburgh in that game. They played to not to win. They played not to lose. And yeah, that was a great win for Lamar, but I think it showed how important Derek Henry is that team. I think he had 170 yards rushing in. Yeah, he was clearly the difference maker in that game. Pittsburgh just had no answer for that. So, yeah, brutal, brutal bet. Brutal. End of that day, I'm with you. Like, going to bed that night, I'm just like, holy. Could not be seeing the board any worse right now. Two bets, two blowout losses.
- [10:03]
Chad Millman
So I was so disgusted at halftime of that game was about 9:30. So truly disgusted between how much I hated watching that Chargers game and how bad, generally bad the football was. Like turning into Grumpy old man, where I'm yelling at myself, why the fuck are these commercials so loud?
- [10:26]
Simon Hunter
I agree with that, though. There are too many commercials.
- [10:29]
Chad Millman
There's so many commercials and they are so loud. Like the. The volume on the commercials. I thought, didn't they pass a law that was like, the commercials can't be louder than the show that you're watching because they were so loud. I turned it off at halftime. Only check the score in the action app. I went upstairs and watched the Jackal the day of the Jackal on Peacock with my wife. We'd started watching it. Got like five episodes in. I'm like, this football's terrible. We're watching the Jackal. She's like, fantastic, except it kind of cost me.
- [11:01]
Simon Hunter
Well, before you go on that, I was just like you. Like, literally. I went to the diner this morning with a friend to get breakfast and she's in a good mood. I'm like, dead inside because I have three, zero and two. And I walk in, there's this really happy family laughing in the back of my. I'm like, what the fuck are you so happy about? So I was going through the same thing you're going through of just disgusting the world just because my own bad bets. Oh, my God, I was right there with you this morning.
- [11:24]
Chad Millman
I'm so glad you say that because it makes me feel better about what I did last night because obviously I do this a lot, but it's not what I do for a living. And I have not had a good year and I have felt badly about it and I have lost my confidence. And so to hear you say the same thing that, like, you're still feeling badly about it, even though I know you quickly get over it and are betting, as did I, all day today. So, you know, I like Buffalo. We had Buffalo, Denver at eight and a half.
- [11:58]
Simon Hunter
And all week teasers that Was also a nice hit.
- [12:01]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I liked Buffalo all week. As the week went on you became more and more wishy washy. Right. And like definitely by Thursday you. Your comment was and I won't forget this, I'm gonna back this because you're my guy. That felt to me like eh, I don't really like it but I want you to feel good. I know you're feeling bad. I know you like it when you like it.
- [12:26]
Simon Hunter
Definitely confident of the teaser. But yeah, you're right about Buffalo and the number. I was not confident on it.
- [12:30]
Chad Millman
Just by the time we did scary Convince me yesterday morning with Raybon and Kroner and Nick and Evan, you had made Denver + eight and a half your bet for this game. We went game by game on the show. So that was in my head the whole freaking day. And then we get blown out on the Chargers. We get blown out on the Steelers. As I'm watching us lose the Steelers bet after I get the big red X in the action app. We've got an 02 day. I had been thinking like should I buy out of the Bills? They're a big favorite. Like I don't know if I can stomach be an Owen 3 going into Philly against the packers where that also makes me nervous. Like yeah. By. By 12:30 after I had streamed three freaking hours of the Jackal. I'm never up this late. We couldn't stop watching it. I bought out my Buffalo Bills bet and bet Denver eight and a half. Buffalo's happening now.
- [13:38]
Simon Hunter
We're on the moon now. The Bills are happening now. They're making it happen now.
- [13:45]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Clearly I'm regretful. Clearly this was a crisis of confidence. The reason I share these things, I share these things because I want listeners to understand. I bet sometimes they feel the same way. I'm betting a lot of games. Every single weekend. I am immersed in this and it still happens. Like sometimes you just make bad decisions. And the game played out exactly like I thought it would. And we went and discussed it on Tuesday with the Bills piling on points as the game went on. It was uncanny how well we describe what would happen.
- [14:25]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And all goes back to what we talked about on Tuesday, which you nailed, is these quarterbacks making their first playoff starts, especially if they're a rookie. It's just a terrifying spot for them in that spot. And yeah, my doubt came from. I thought it was just a lot of points for a Bill's defense that we've seen has struggled. And you know, they. Not only did they show up. But they also had a nice little game plan there of, you know, just keeping everything in front of them. They really did that. They gave up that one big play and then the rest of the game they were able to keep everything just in front, especially the safety. So, yeah, huge, huge win for the Bills. And, yeah, a game that, you know, we talked about Josh Allen, MVP discussion. That to me is the sum of the perfect discussion for him in MVP where it's like in that game, the different plays, even if he, you can say he didn't have it, he definitely didn't. Right in that first half. It just wasn't very Josh Allen. Like, it was sloppy. Probably should have been 10, 10. They got really lucky that Denver missed a field goal. It's 10 7, and I'm sure Evan tweeted it out, but it's like Josh Allen's second half this year has just been dominant. He's been absolute money and whatever it is, he come. He came out and did the same thing he's done all season. He absolutely dominated that second half. Made big time Thursday. Evan just put in our chat. He's 15 2, second half spread against the spread this season. It's. It's truly remarkable. So that, to me is the ultimate confidence. If you're. If you're someone that is backing him and, you know, we're going to talk about his upcoming line this week, you know, he's just been incredible these second halfs. Like, even when he doesn't have it, he finds it. And you know, when he needs to make the plays with his legs, he does. Like they had a couple times where it's like, you know, third and short, fourth and short, and he trusts his legs over his arm because he knows how big and strong he is. And if he can just head fake the right way and get a guy in the wrong angle and he can fall forward, he'll pick up the first. And he kept doing that game. So, yeah, brilliant game by Josh Allen, the Bills defense, and you know, Bo Nicks didn't play well. We can all agree on that. And you know, that's. That's tough, but you're the seventh seed. It's just like we're seeing here with Green Bay. Like, there's a reason these teams are the seventh seed, right? They're just in a tough spot. So, yeah, chalk. Chalk has been good. It's all home teams right now, Chad, Home team and chalk for the playoffs to start.
- [16:39]
Chad Millman
So, by the way, I do want to shout out Dr. Nick, who had the the bills Broncos under 48 in the luck rankings talked about it on convince me yesterday. My only solace is that I did make some of my money back betting the under. And of course Josh Allen almost single handedly tried to make the total go over the 48 in the second half. Like I just kept I for the last 45 minutes of the game. I went to my kids rec league basketball game and the whole time I'm got the phone next to me and I've got the action app and every two seconds I'm getting alert 24, 7, 31 7. What a 28. 7 31, 7, 38. I'm like, are you fucking kidding me? Can you stop fucking scoring? Because if I lose this under after I bought out of the fucking Bills when everything happened that I said was going to happen, I am going to lose it right here in the hall. High school gym alert here for Josh Allen.
- [17:44]
Simon Hunter
Looking for Allen. He's got it. He's a runner.
- [17:48]
Chad Millman
No, he's a thrower.
- [17:49]
Simon Hunter
He is a football player through and.
- [17:51]
Adnan Virk
Through with his legs.
- [17:52]
Simon Hunter
And there he goes.
- [17:53]
Chad Millman
Josh Allen, huge run and excuse me, touchdown.
- [17:58]
Simon Hunter
How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness, there's no fear. No way. Still going. Oh my God. The demands to do something about this outrageous man became louder and louder.
- [18:27]
Chad Millman
Green Bay of Philly, Jordan Lovell just intercepted. We liked Philly -3 and a half. There's less than two minutes left in the game. The Eagles have the ball. They're up 2210 at the risk. I'm not, I'm not saying we won, but I'm just saying there's less than two minutes left. The Eagles have the ball and they're up by 12 points. You had this game at six. We bettered at three and a half. We better get it four. We better get at four and a half. Kudos to you. The game closed at five and a half. I don't want to spend too much time on it because I want to leave us time to talk about next week's games that are already lined. And also this one's not over yet, so I don't want to fully jinx it, but kudos because this game closed at about five and a half. It skyrocketed today, which was surprising to me.
- [19:12]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm watching it right now. I mean, it's. It's over. We can talk about it. Yeah. This was the type of game that, you know, not that we thought that Jordan Love would lay this big of an egg, but we knew that something was just off with this Green Bay team, especially coming to this game and that, you know, they had been out of rhythm and they faced an Eagles team that the biggest question coming in was Jalen Hurts, right, coming off that extended rest. And there's no doubt he did look rusty in this game, right? I think the whole offense did at certain points, but it also felt like it was the same old Eagles team this season. Like it's just a team that leans on the defense, has a great running, running back and a great quarterback that can run with the ball. So, um, that was the most shocking part to me was how many QB runs Hertz did.
- [19:53]
Chad Millman
I was too.
- [19:54]
Simon Hunter
They completely, like. That's why I think it was only one week. A really minimum concussion because they didn't change the offense at all. I really thought that would be the biggest difference. And there was no difference. And yeah, this is a team that even if they went ugly, it's a win and it's. That's kind of how you want it to be in the playoffs. You want to lean on your defense and have a strong run game. And that's why this team is, you know, viewed as a powerhouse right now. Head into these playoffs and, you know, this game couldn't have started any better for them, right? That. That hit that fumble touchdown pass by Hertz. And then basically you're in a spot now in Green Bay that you're chasing against one of the best aspects of this team, which is their past defense. And they had to keep putting the ball through the air. You know what? Jordan Love have two turnovers, two interceptions this game. You know, they had a fumble on the kickoff. Josh Jacobs had a fumble, three interceptions by Jordan Love. So, yeah, just everything basically went the exact way the egos wanted to. And this was a good game for her to get rust off. And you expect going forward, you know, we'll see what number I have them grayed out this week. But not that I felt low on the six, but I felt like it was crazy. I was the only one that had the six and everyone else was much lower on it. And I think it was just an overreaction by most betters to the hurts injury. That's what I think it was. And also the fear of, like we talked about going against the floor as a dog. He's been incredible. So, yeah, huge, huge gain for the Eagles team in the sense that they just need to show something offensively. I think they did today. I think it hurts. You know, two touchdown passes in a quiet game. He'll Take that anytime.
- [21:26]
Chad Millman
I was actually really impressed with the game plan and how it progressed over the course of the game and into the second half with Hertz, because, you know, he had like 12 passes in the first half, maybe 39, 40 yards, whatever it was. And as the second half went on, he was definitely throwing more, definitely looking downfield more. Obviously the plays were calling for that, but they must have seen something in the adjustments that made them feel comfortable doing that after halftime. And he played well. Like, he ended up, you know, having probably, I don't know the final stats yet, because I came up before the game was over, but between 20 and 25 pass attempts, I bet he completed 15 to 17, ended up having a good enough game when you have Saquon Barkley and that defense, which is just so fucking legit. I mean, that's the reason why we were betting this game to begin with, is just that defense. And I don't think people, especially the betting community, is accounting for the advantage this team has with this defense. From back to front, from coverage to tackling. They're. They are fucking fierce.
- [22:36]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And the fact that, you know, they have an all pro and Carter in the middle and then right behind them, an all pro linebacker, it's. It's. You can see it in that game where that's, that's key. And I think Evan had an amazing post in our chat radio. Through four games, road teams have scored 43 total points. So that, that tells you all that you need to know right now about how big of a deal home field is in the playoffs and why it does matter. And you know, I heard some clutter like discussion about teams. They want to change the format. Right. They don't want to give the division winners home field net to me is just so ridiculous like that they want.
- [23:08]
Chad Millman
To give the teams with the best records. Yeah, home field.
- [23:11]
Simon Hunter
I hate that. It's just keep it as is, please. NFL, don't. Don't you keep changing so many things. Just stop getting bored. So, yeah, like we just said three in one favorites right now. You know, it's been super chalky. It's continued to be chalk and you know, a little scary because right now, you know, we love. I personally really love the Bucks, so I need the chalk to continue and we need the home teams to continue because we're on the last two teams. We're both home teams. So yeah, we're hoping chalk goes five and one and home teams sweep. That's. That's what we're looking at right now.
- [23:44]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirror ball trophy from Dancing With a. So where else you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but, like, all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like, it's all colored. They changed it and the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm going to be honest, it was a little pink.
- [24:27]
Simon Hunter
There was something sentimental when you, when you send it. You was like, do I send the heart?
- [24:33]
Bobby Bones
Now I don't like the color edition.
- [24:35]
Simon Hunter
It's extremely pink.
- [24:36]
Bobby Bones
Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [24:44]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL unscripted with Burke and Demers.
- [24:52]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Immers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst. And boy, oh, boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [25:00]
Adnan Virk
I love you, by the way, on NHL Network. We're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [25:09]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [25:19]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We get all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear in NHL.
- [25:28]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Virky.
- [25:32]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burke and demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [25:44]
Chad Millman
Yeah. So we're on the Bucks tonight. Minus 3. Kickoff is in moments. I do want to run through these last couple of games, like, in theory. By the way, the Rams are the home team, but they're playing In Glendale that line is at two and a half. I think it moved from one and a half to two and a half. When it backed, it went back to Glendale. Houston at Kansas City. Kansas City. This line opened at seven and a half. Immediately got that up to eight and a half, came down to eight. Obviously we're going to dig in in great detail in all the games and all the lines on Tuesday, but any first reaction? It's now down to eight. So the initial money came in on Kansas City, moved it up and then there's been a little bit of buyback on the eight.
- [26:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it feels like another really simple game where Houston has been incredible covering first half spreads. If that's a side you like, take them first half because I just see the Chiefs doing what the Chiefs do, which is just wearing them out. Second half and that's, that's really when they dominate teams. And if you're looking for a reason to take Houston first half it's like, well, they've been dominant in the first half and you expect Mahomes after 21 days off to come out a little slow. Right? That's just the basic thinking there. So I'm anxious to see what my miles gonna have this number at because to me this does feel high. This feels like a lot of respect for this Chiefs team. But then you have to remind yourself, oh yes, this is the Chiefs at home in January against an inferior opponent. Like if Houston makes the same mistakes they made against the Chargers, it isn't going to be six nothing in the first half. They're going to be getting down 13 or 14 nothing in that first half. So yeah, I'm with you. That one definitely jumped out. But this next game, Chad, this is, this is definitely the best playoff game coming up in this, in this next round.
- [27:24]
Chad Millman
By the way, the first half line on that game between the Texans and the Chief is five and a half. Kansas City, five and a half. All right. And by the way, it's back up to eight and a half. As far as I can tell, Baltimore at Buffalo lined open at I think one and a half moved down. Did you see some twos?
- [27:46]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [27:48]
Chad Millman
Now it's down to one.
- [27:50]
Simon Hunter
That feels right.
- [27:52]
Chad Millman
So the money has come in on Baltimore. It should in this game. You have you power rated this in any way yet?
- [28:01]
Simon Hunter
No, but I did take the two. When the Ravens first came out with it just, it felt like that was too much and now it feels right, like this was what the number should be. I think the Bills deserve the respect. They are the Home team minus one. That. That to me is the right number for the side. And I, I do want to be on the Bills, honestly. Like, I just took the two because I thought there was value there on the Ravens especially. It's Lamar as a dog, obviously, but maybe I'm being a sucker here, but my initial gut is just like, man, you're getting Josh Allen at home, and I just can't see him not willing his team to win this type of game. Like, he's done it all year in this exact scenario. And I just vis picture him losing this game, especially at home. And when you dive into the matchup, you know, the Ravens do a lot of things. They can counter defensively that can slow down Josh Allen. They do have the pieces to do it. And offensively we've seen the teams, you know, they can't move the ball against this Bill's team, especially offense. Like when they played early in the year, we saw it seemed like a huge mismatch. The Ravens seemed like the much better team was at 35 to 10 win. I'd have to go back and look, but it felt like it was a blowout by that Ravens team against the Bills. Now we can say both these teams are obviously way different now this late in the season. If anything, the Ravens are better defensively than they were at that point. And, you know, this Bill's offense, I can't see them putting up only 10 points at home like this feels like it's going to be a shootout, back and forth type of game. And yeah, that if it was too Chad, I would. I'd be telling you let's. Let's early here take this Ravens team. But now that's down to minus one. And again, I'm not rushing to bet it because I think you're just like me. I could see this flipping because the pros just made their statement. They like the. The. The Baltimore side. I think the public would join them, honestly. Like Lamar, he is the guy right now, and this Ravens team feels like the team. So I could easily see this flip at one point and then that's when me and you move in. If we do like the Bills and take them as a dog.
- [29:50]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's interesting. The Ravens are the more complete team.
- [29:54]
Simon Hunter
Definitely. Well, they have six all pros.
- [29:56]
Chad Millman
They. They got six all pros. Their defense has really turned the corner. I mean, the graphics they were showing yesterday, which we've talked about a lot the past five weeks, this is the number one defense across every metric since about week 10. Right. Everyone says it. They move Kyle Hamilton into the deep safety position full time. They move Marlon Humphrey into the slot. It has completely changed how they communicate. It has completely changed how they cover. It has made them an almost impossible team to throw against. Russell Wilson might be a little bit washed, but he was facing a team that was making it very hard for him to complete any passes. It was hard to complete third and threes for two yards against the Ravens. So that's interesting to me. Obviously, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry compliment each other so well. One of the reasons why I was convinced to not bet the Bills was because of the conversation around how bad their defense is and what Sean Payton and Bo Nix would be able to do against them. So why do I feel better betting on the Bills when the Ravens offense is not led by a rookie quarterback and has a better running game then and they'll have Zay Flowers back more than likely. So why. Why wouldn't I play the. The Ravens here? Like what. What magic does Josh Allen have against a team that is more complete and more well rounded and a defense that the Bills have to play against an offense that is really incomparable right now.
- [31:37]
Simon Hunter
If this number, like we just said, if it was 2 or higher, that's where the value is on that Raven. Right.
- [31:41]
Chad Millman
So.
- [31:42]
Simon Hunter
But.
- [31:42]
Chad Millman
But if it gets to. If it's at one, if it's a pick.
- [31:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. The value to me is on the Bills just because they. They should be favoring the spot because they are the home team and it is Lamar in the playoffs, on the road, like I don't know if you've seen his history. I can't think.
- [31:57]
Chad Millman
I'm not buying it. I'm not. I'm not.
- [31:59]
Simon Hunter
But this is the same exact thing you did last year and I did with you last year. I'm not gonna let you talk me into it this year. He beat up on a bad Houston team last year and then got smoked when he played a real team in Kansas City. And now he's going on the road. He's playing a real team in the Bills. So I get it, Chad. I get your hesitation. He beat up on a shitty Pittsburgh team that lost five in a though. Let's. Let's just run through it real quick. Why their defense had this incredible turnaround. They got smoked by the Eagles. Right? Do you remember that game they lost 24 19.
- [32:25]
Chad Millman
Yes.
- [32:25]
Simon Hunter
It was not a 2419 game. Eagles dominated that game. They had their bi week and then they played the Giants. Pittsburgh, a Houston team. That mean you both don't think that's good. And then Cleveland, that's what they ended the season on to make this defense sound like a juggernaut. So there's a reason for me to be skeptical here, and there's a reason I think that the Bill should be favored. That's. That's just my whole point. But I get where you're coming from. Like I told you, the pros agree with you. Like, the early money here is all Ravens for good reason. It was. You had Lamar in a key number at plus two. That's. That to me, was a smart bet to open up with it. But now that it's moved down to me, that's my whole point. It's like once it's moved below that, it's starting to shift the value to this. This Bills team that. I totally get where you're coming from, Chad. I do not feel confident in their defense. All my confidence is just Josh Allen in this spot at home, trusting if he has the ball last, he'll win the game. Like we go through with Josh Allen, his kryptonite has been his defense his whole career. Like you go through everything. All those lost in the playoff has never really been about him. You can't see the same about Lamar. So you're right. Am I excited to be bet against Lamar and Derrick Henry? Fuck no. It's not something I'm looking forward to. That's why I'm hoping the books give me and you a better numbering. I can feel more confident in taking this Bills as a dog at home.
- [33:36]
Chad Millman
Or what if it turns around? What if. You know, this is a fascinating public perception gain because the Ravens beat up on the Steelers, but at the same number, just about the Bills beat up on the Broncos. And there's plenty of people who would say the Broncos were playing better at the end of the year and had a higher public sentiment rating for, you know, for lack of a better term.
- [34:01]
Simon Hunter
True.
- [34:01]
Chad Millman
Than the Steelers did. So there could be money coming in on the Bills from the public by the time we are talking about this again on Tuesday and even on Thursday. And in that case, yeah.
- [34:12]
Simon Hunter
Two. Two and a half. Me and you, I feel like, are in agreement. We'll both be on the Ravens.
- [34:16]
Chad Millman
Oh, my God. If this. If I didn't. I didn't see the two. If I had seen the two, I would have bet the Ravens at two. I'm tempted to bet the Ravens at one, but I. I will try to keep my powder dry. But.
- [34:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, wait till Tuesday. Don't.
- [34:32]
Chad Millman
It's gonna be Hard not to bet the Ravens is an underdog. Here we Let me ask you. Oh, well, let me ask Matt Mitchell quickly because I liked when he came on last week since he is our resident Bills fan and his entire neighborhood gets ice cream when the Bills win a playoff game. You felt uber confident about today's game in the wild card round. Matt Mitchell, tell me what you're feeling about the divisional round in Buffalo against the Ravens.
- [34:57]
Matt Mitchell
Yep, I did feel like Buffalo Bills would give the Broncos an absolute fucking dose. And indeed, they force fed the Broncos that dose today. Had a great time, but like I said, I'm never worried that disaster will find me. So it's looming around. I'm consumed with anxiety about this game. I'll feel like throwing up until the game is probably all the way over. Not brimming with confidence. I'd rather play the Chiefs twice than play the Ravens, I'll tell you that.
- [35:23]
Chad Millman
Really?
- [35:23]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [35:24]
Matt Mitchell
I'd rather play the Chiefs this round and then have to play them again in the AFC Championship game. I hate this Ravens team.
- [35:30]
Chad Millman
So this game is at 6:30pm next Sunday. Interesting timing. Yeah. So it's wreaking havoc with our schedule.
- [35:41]
Simon Hunter
A little bit more in the night game.
- [35:44]
Chad Millman
Yeah, we don't know. We don't know at this point any of the NFC matchups. We could go. I don't really want to go through every combination permutation here. I want to be able to go watch the Bucks game, and I want our viewers to be able to go watch the Bucks game, even though many, many more people are listening to this as a podcast. But there's so many games that are being played that have yet to be matched up. So I don't want to run through like, you know, every single combination at this point. Simon, you agree?
- [36:14]
Simon Hunter
Agree.
- [36:15]
Chad Millman
Okay. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or 1-800- bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Catch our next episode live on Tuesday at 1:30pm Eastern on Action Network's YouTube channel. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, subscribe, leave us. 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until Tuesday. Love you. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER what's up, everybody?
- [37:30]
Adnan Virk
Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [37:34]
Jason Demers
Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [37:40]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
- [37:44]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in, too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies. We're talking TV, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on Le Table.
- [37:53]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.