← The Herd with Colin Cowherd
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- [00:00]
Greg Rosenthal
What's up, everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal, and I'm teaming up with the king of spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs, mock drafts to my top 101, free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:31]
Jeremy Scott
Something unexpected happened after Jeremy Scott confessed to killing Michelle Schofield in Bone Valley season one.
- [00:38]
Gilbert King
Every time I hear about my dad is, oh, he's a killer. He's just straight evil.
- [00:43]
Jeremy Scott
I was becoming the bridge between Jeremy Scott and the son he'd never known.
- [00:48]
Gilbert King
At the end of the day, I'm literally a son of a killer.
- [00:50]
Jeremy Scott
Listen to new episodes of bone Valley Season 2, starting April 9th on the iHeartRadio app app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:09]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by Beth365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:29]
Simon Hunter
Hello, Chad. What a weekend we had, huh, brother?
- [01:32]
Chad Millman
Listen, I know you're just rolling out of bed. You were in Atlantic City playing poker in a tournament till all hours. I was in Florida, which I believe is the home state of our guest coming up this weekend at a wedding in Miami. And then I went to Palm beach for the day for a project that I'm working on in the wedding. This was like right out of a commercial. This was a wedding. A lot of people like to gamble at this wedding. Very high class affair in Miami. But it's a big gambling crowd, really big gambling crowd. And. And at the wedding, of course, during the speeches and even when everyone was dancing during dinner, there were four or five different phones in between. Two different people showing first the Florida Auburn game and then the Duke Houston game. And the number of people sweating that total for the Duke Houston game. So many people had the under 137 and a half, I think, or over 136 and a half. It was landing right on that number. It was super exciting.
- [03:05]
Simon Hunter
Now, those are the best. Those are the best. Especially where if you're in on it and you hear loud moans across the crowd, you know everyone's Looking at the same thing. It has nothing to do with the wedding. It's everyone just on their phone, by the way, those games.
- [03:17]
Chad Millman
And this was. There were a lot of gambling industry people at this wedding, including at my table were people representing I think three different sports books, as well as an original investor in action, like when it was just not even a company yet, and a guy who runs a venture fund that is focused on the betting space. So everybody had very specific needs. It was really, really funny.
- [03:50]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I thought it was pretty interesting. The whole market's crashing, but all sportsbook stocks were up cause Duke lost. So that was a pretty interesting. Tell that. That's how big of a deal it was for Duke to lose these sportsbooks to make some money off that college basketball.
- [04:02]
Chad Millman
That's right. And we guess what, we enter into another very special week for gamblers. An annual rite of spring, a tradition unlike any other. And last night for the finals, we saw Jim Nance as a fan of Houston, getting ready, priming his pipes for the Masters. It is Masters week. Masters tees off Thursday morning from Augusta, one of America's most hallowed sporting events. Always one of the best, most popular sporting events on the entire spring calendar. Joining us to break it all down, he has become one of the most familiar faces in in modern sports media. You could say he's like the archetype for modern sports media with the way he looks at sports, his focus on analytics, his focus on the athletes who come on his very popular podcast, how he's morphed and evolved as a media personality. He's the host of the very popular show this is Football. You'll see him all over ESPN airwaves, including on first take later this week. He is also a very passionate golf fan and appearing on ESPN's Betcasts for Golf. Welcome to the show. Kevin Clark.
- [05:20]
Kevin Clark
What an intro. Thank you.
- [05:21]
Chad Millman
You're good, right?
- [05:22]
Kevin Clark
Thank you. I appreciate that. Yeah, no, it's. This is one of my favorite weeks of the year. I like that. And Chad, you and I have talked about this. I love the golf gambling space. So the fact that I get to go on this show, I'm going on ESPN Band on Wednesday. Like I just. Everybody needs to hear my bad takes this needed to escape my golf group Ch. And now we just need to break contained and everybody has to hear it, including on some of these broadcasts going forward.
- [05:46]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's going to be ugly. There's no doubt about it. There's no way when you're trying to pick from the field, you've got a good shot at being right. The odds tell us that it's almost impossible. Like, sure, you can pick Scottie Scheffler, you can pick Rory McElroy. I'm seeing like Scheffler's at +440. McElroy is at 6 to 1. Moricas about Morika was about 14 to 1. DeChambeau is about 14 to 1. But like, those are the lame picks. And so we're going to get to the good ones in the show. We're also going to talk a lot of football. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet$5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At BET 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Kevin, I just mentioned in the intro, you are a master of media. And to me, what's interesting about your career truly is how you have morphed from beat writer at the Journal, which to me, by the way, has the best sports section in the country. I think the people who write for the Wall Street Journal do the most interesting stories. Robert O'Connell to me writing about the NBA. He gets every story that I'm interested in in the moment. Like, I just think he's great. Explain the evolution for you from beat reporter to analytics guy, which is a lot of what you were doing at the Journal and then at Ringer and then to broad football analyst.
- [07:48]
Kevin Clark
Yeah, so I was covering the Dolphins when I was in college for a paper in Fort Lauderdale. Got hired when I was still in college by a friend of yours, Chad Sam Walker. And I commuted my last semester in college from New York to Miami as much as I possibly could. I basically ran out of my diploma and then mailed me a diploma. Anyway, I think I did the Bear. I would basically email my press. It's like, listen, just give me, just give me a checklist here and I'll go through it. And somehow I have a diploma, by the grace of God. And so I started covering the knicks as a 22, 23 year old. That was their right Before Carmelo Anthony came in. And then Carmelo Anthony, obviously mania changed the tone of the beat. And what I realized was I'm with Frank A. Sola, I'm with Mark Berman, I'm with Alan Han, and I've got sources, but not like them. And so I was such already an appreciate appreciator. That's a word of analytics. But what I was starting to do was say, hey, why don't I call up XYZ analytics person and say, hey, this is the best way for Amari and Carmelo to get together that, that kind of thing. And I was getting a ton of attention through that because first of all, the team notices, you know, the, the coaching staff notices when you're doing this analytics stuff. This is 2011, when nobody's talking about this stuff. Nobody. I mean, you remember like it was happening in baseball, it wasn't really happening in basketball. And so if you say like I remember I wrote a piece about how, you know, at one point the guys they traded for Carmelo, if you just put them on one team, had more win shares combined than, than the Carmelo team, like that was getting traction. And so I started to just go down that role that, that rabbit hole as much as I could and, and just figure out what guys are talking about. You get end up getting sources within the organization because they care about athletic analytics or they want to tell you about it. Um, and so for me, it was just like a natural. I always, like when I was in college as the Dolphins writer, I was number three guy. So you have to just figure out your lane. Like if you don't figure out your lane, a, you're not going to get in the paper, B, no one's going to read you. And so for me, I got into the analytics part of it because A, I liked it, but B, it was just the way I could compete with Franco Solo and Mark Berman, who've been, who've had sources at msg for, for 25 years. And so then you get into the NFL beat and it's the same thing nobody's talking about. I mean, I, I, I, I remember there was a guy who told me this is 2012, that he was an early analytics guy in the NFL and there were like five analytics guys in, in 2012 and that he had an office and he said to the coaching staff, he was like, hey, anytime you have a question come in here, I can run any data set you need. I can tell you about play calling, I can tell you about evaluation, I'm here. He Said for months, months, he was ignored, completely ignored. No coach would engage with him. Nobody had any questions. And then one day, a position coach comes in and says, I have a question. And the guy perks up and he's like, all right, here comes the analytics breakthrough. And the coach goes, can you give us our record when we win the turnover battle? Which is like the most. Like, you could. It's probably in the back of a newspaper somewhere. But that was their idea of analytics is like, win, loss, record, when you win the turnover battle. And I realized there was a lot of untapped potential there, where you have these guys who no one's paying attention to, that understand the sport. Football will never be like baseball and basketball, where you can explain the entire sport through analytics. I still believe in toughness. I still believe in things like running the ball and the running back position, all that stuff. But, like, I just realized there was no one was writing about this stuff. And you can explain a lot of football through it. And so that's just how I did it. And then eventually, I kind of branched out, started podcasting at the Ringer, did the Omaha ESPN thing a couple years ago. And so really, it's. It's all through the same vein, which is like going. Going where it takes you. Right. Riding the wave where it takes you, as Pearl Jam said. And. And I, I. It's kind of everything's case by case. Everything's the next step. Okay, this podcast is exploding. I'll do this. It was never some grand plan. It was just this. This makes sense. I'll go do this.
- [11:45]
Chad Millman
Don't you think, though? And, Simon, I'm curious about your take on this as well. Analytics, to me, in football has become so huge.
- [11:57]
Kevin Clark
Yeah.
- [11:57]
Chad Millman
It's getting harder and harder while it. You say it doesn't have the same. I'm not sure if I'm quoting you correctly here. It can't be the same impact that baseball as it has on baseball or basketball, because there are a lot of intangibles just about the way the game is played, but it certainly has increased fandom, given people a different entry point into the game. But do you think there are still edges to be found from an analytics point of view, or has that all been sliced and diced in a way that is impossible to find a new angle? Simon, you go first, since you've got to think about this from a financial point of view.
- [12:39]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I would say that what we've been talking about at Nysen, about all these teams adjusting to the fourth down that's been to me, the biggest adjustment in this league where, you know, Chad, we would joke back in the day, I feel like Riverboat Ron Rivera was the only one doing it with Cam Newton. And it's like, you know, you think back to that, that feels like a made up story. Like what Ron Rivera, that old dinosaur, was going for it on fourth down before everyone else. And you know, we saw a little bit with Belichick, but it really did feel like Doug Peterson winning that super bowl kind of put it on a different level of all these other teams are just like, okay, let's stop ignoring the nerd in the corner. Let's talk to this guy. Because clearly the numbers do matter. And you know, I'm interested to hear Kevin's view of it because I, I'm trying to think back now to what first teams I remember doing it were the Ravens an early adapter. Like who were, who in your mind were the first teams to really embrace it and actually use it as a good tool?
- [13:32]
Kevin Clark
Well, you're right. For, for me, the conversation started after Belichick's failed fourth down. The, the Kevin Falk fourth and two, you know, catches it and, and goes short of the goal line. I remember talking to analyst guys and he said, that's when the debate started. That's when you're bringing on guys to Sports center to explain why that was a good idea. Guys who had never been professors, analytics guys, Aaron Chatz, guys who were never, ever consulted on any of this stuff were all of a sudden on Sunday countdown explaining why, why it was good the following week that started the conversation. I agree with you. Doug Pearson changed something with his aggression. And then all of a sudden the Ravens where it's John Harbaugh forward thinking because he has Lamar Jackson, realizes that Lamar Jackson getting 2 yards is a really easy proposition. And I think from there it goes. I remember talking to Neil Hornsby, who founded Pro Football Focus, and I said, what, what in 20 years is going to be the bunt of football? Like, what are we going to look and be like, I can't believe they were giving up outs. And he was saying it's the fourth and two, fourth and three punt. That's not basically in your own red zone. Unless you're in your own red zone, just go for it, right? Unless it's 4th and 14 or whatever. And we're starting to see that now. The aggression there, whether that's the, you know, the tush push is basically automatic. Like, guys understand the short yardage stuff. They understand that getting Two yards is really, really easy in this era. And passing the ball and like, that's the one thing. What's funny about it is. So I did a piece with Dan Campbell a couple years ago. He goes forth on fourth down all the time, as we know. And he said he likes analytics, he embraces analytics. But. But it's gut for him that he was with Sean Payton and he wanted to scare defenses. And when Sean Payton would go for it, he'd look over the other sideline and they're scrambling, they're tearing their headsets off, they're saying we don't have the right personnel in. And he's like, I want to do that. And it's not about analytics. It's about seeing the coach about to poop his pants. And then the other part of it, and this is something that both I've Talked to Matt LaFleur and Dan Campbell about. It's not necessarily about getting three yards on fourth and two. It's we can take a shot on fourth down. That's part of it is like, what if we ran a play action pass that was actually 30 yards downfield on fourth down? That adds an entirely new level. That's not Frankie Luvu jumping over the, the goal line to try to stop the tush push. That's we can score a 50 yard touchdown on this play. So I think the aggression, it's not just 4th down, it's the aggressiveness with which they attack 4th down has changed football. And I completely agree with what you're saying, Simon, but from an analytic standpoint, I think we don't. Because it's such a secret sport, maybe baseball is this too. A lot of this is proprietary. So, like when tracking data came into football, one of the, I had someone, an analytics source, let's call it, who told me that there's a team that realized that their big defensive tackles, who are 330 pounds, exert almost all of the energy they exert running from sideline to play. Running from sideline to play. So they realized that in substitution situations, they should always run the ball to the far sideline of their opponent so that their defensive linemen are always getting tired. So it's all, it's stuff like that. So you wouldn't think, oh, like analytics is going to be this. No, no, no. Like you're finding these little edges and you're just saying, hey, maybe this will work. And Maybe in the fourth quarter we've made the defensive tackle who's 320 pounds run back and forth sideline 17 times now. He can't rush the passer. It's little things like that that I think are going to be revealed retroactively. Kind of like with baseball. We didn't know what was going on with Moneyball until Michael Lewis wrote it. Right. We're gonna find out in 10 years. Hey, this team was doing this. There's no way. Yeah, I think they think they. I think someone referred to Howie Roseman's analytics department with Alec Halaby as like, a black box, you know, whatever. Almost like the CIA. Like, they're probably doing stuff that would blow our minds, but because it's proprietary, we'll find out in 10 years when they say, hey, you know what we're doing for that team? Xyz.
- [17:31]
Simon Hunter
And I do want to give. I do want to give a little love, Chad, to one team that was ahead of the. The curve. The 1988 Dallas Carter Cowboys. Now, do you know who that is, Chad?
- [17:41]
Chad Millman
Dallas Carter Cowboys were the team that beat. Yeah, I think. Was it Permian High School?
- [17:46]
Kevin Clark
Yeah.
- [17:48]
Chad Millman
In Friday Night Lights, which. Simon, don't fucking challenge me.
- [17:52]
Simon Hunter
I love the challenge.
- [17:54]
Chad Millman
1980S sports writing, which is when I decided I wanted to be a sports writer. And Friday Night Lights was one of the books. So much so, in fact, that when Gene Hackman died a couple weekends ago, I watched Hoosiers. And the next movie that was served to me was the Billy Bob Thornton Friday Night Lights movie. So I just watched it, like, two weeks ago.
- [18:19]
Simon Hunter
Good man.
- [18:20]
Kevin Clark
Yeah.
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Simon Hunter
I always think back to that, though. It's like, how did this guy in 1988 be ahead of NFL teams by, what, 20 years? Like, the fact that he was always going for two, never punting, just literally relied on his guys and their athleticism being like, we're the best. We're going to show up here now.
- [18:37]
Kevin Clark
He was right.
- [18:38]
Simon Hunter
We just saw it in the NFL. Like, as an Eagles fan, I will never get over the fact that they punted or they kicked that field goal in that first drive with Jane Daniels, with Washington, right? They drove that whole field, and for some reason, they went away from who they were. And we talk all the time. It's like the coaches that stay true to who they are, right, they always stay going for it on the fourth down. Those are usually the teams at the end of the year that's going to come out. So it just. It just popped in. We were talking about. It's like, how did this team in 1988, in high school, be so far ahead of these college NFL teams? It is. It is Funny how those things just start that way.
- [19:11]
Kevin Clark
I completely agree. And the one thing that's surprising to me, guys, it has not become mainstream. Maybe it's getting there, but like, this whole thing of all coaches want to say is, I believe in my guys. I'm, we're aggressive, we're tough, and then they punt on 4th and 1. You're acting like a coward. The way to enact belief in your guys is to say we practice getting one yard all the time. We can get this one yard. We're going to out tough you in the trenches and get this one yard. I'm surprised that hasn't become more mainstream thought a la Dan Campbell and some of these guys who are trying to do that.
- [19:41]
Chad Millman
Well, that's what's interesting. When you talk about Campbell, you talk about Sean Payton. These guys who are traditionalists when it comes to coaching football, but are progressives when it comes to how they play call and the decisions they make. And to your point, it has nothing to do with the analytics. And that's what's fascinating to me, is that there is this quality of football that you've alluded to, the toughness, the intangibles that happens to play into the analytics. Right?
- [20:13]
Kevin Clark
Yeah.
- [20:14]
Chad Millman
So that, to me, is amazing.
- [20:16]
Greg Rosenthal
What's up, everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal and I'm teaming up with the king of spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs mock drafts to my top 101, free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday, keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [20:47]
Jeremy Scott
Something unexpected happened after Jeremy Scott confessed to killing Michelle Schofield in Bone Valley Season one.
- [20:54]
Chad Millman
I just knew him as a kid.
- [20:56]
Jeremy Scott
Long, silent voices from his past came.
- [20:59]
Kevin Clark
Forward, and he was just staring at me.
- [21:02]
Jeremy Scott
And they had secrets of their own to share.
- [21:06]
Gilbert King
Gilbert King. I'm the son of Jeremy Lynn Scott.
- [21:12]
Jeremy Scott
I was no longer just telling the story. I was part of it.
- [21:16]
Gilbert King
Every time I hear about my dad, it's, oh, he's a killer. He's just straight evil.
- [21:20]
Jeremy Scott
I was becoming the bridge between a killer and the son he'd never known.
- [21:25]
Gilbert King
If the cops and everything would have done their job properly, my dad would have been in jail. I would have never existed.
- [21:30]
Jeremy Scott
I never expected to find myself in this place. Now I need to tell you how I got here.
- [21:37]
Gilbert King
At the end of the day, I'm literally a son of a killer.
- [21:40]
Jeremy Scott
Bone Valley Season 2 Jeremy.
- [21:44]
Gilbert King
Jeremy, I want to tell you something.
- [21:46]
Jeremy Scott
Listen to new episodes of bone Valley Season 2 starting April 9 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And to hear the entire new season ad free with exclusive content starting April 9th. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcasts.
- [22:05]
Chad Millman
The one thing that drives me nuts, and you just talked about this with Leflore. Teams that have a fourth and two and they decide they're going to go for it. The Saints did this so many times last year with Derek Carr. They got a short yardage situation and either in a high leverage spot on third down or fourth down and instead of actually going for the first down, they create a play call where the only option is some over the shoulder fade against the sideline that has a.
- [22:34]
Kevin Clark
Very narrow against cover two. Yeah. Yeah.
- [22:37]
Chad Millman
What the fuck, Kevin?
- [22:38]
Kevin Clark
Yeah.
- [22:38]
Chad Millman
Why, like, when you talk to coaches like, you have so many great coaches on your show, you have so many players on your show. You just said lafleur likes to think about it. Do they think about it realistically? Do they? Is it an option? Like, how. Why are they doing this?
- [22:53]
Kevin Clark
I think that part of it. So when I talked to him, it was last year about this particular issue was last year of Rogers. And you're thinking like Rogers, one of the most accurate quarterbacks in history. Now, that started dissipate. He had the thumb injury that year. He was banged up all year. I think he was frankly missing throws on fourth and two, and it was actually extremely frustrating to watch. As someone who picked them to win the super bowl that year, I picked the packers in the super bowl, like all the time. I don't know why I still do it. I don't know why I'm going to probably stop this year. I'm off, I'm off the train. But I think it's kind of what we're talking about. It's a belief, it's a confidence in saying we can execute this. We practice this over and over and over again. So if I call my best play on fourth and three, it's going to work. And the problem is is that if it doesn't work, I think there's a sense of panic.
- [23:38]
Simon Hunter
More.
- [23:38]
Kevin Clark
More so I think the quarterback's eyes dart around because it's not second down where you go, all right, we're going to just dirt the ball and lived another day I think there's a sense of if it starts to go, it really goes. And I wonder if maybe more not conservative plays, but plays with more options baked into it. Like, you know, we all play Madden or NCAA or whatever on fourth down. I promise you, I call three routes that can all work. And I wonder sometimes why, why coaches don't do that. I completely agree with you.
- [24:07]
Chad Millman
So annoying.
- [24:09]
Kevin Clark
Just play Madden, guys.
- [24:10]
Chad Millman
Yeah, you know what?
- [24:12]
Kevin Clark
You would always run a drag and a post and something's going to hit. Okay.
- [24:18]
Chad Millman
Just call it like you would on a Tuesday afternoon, playing in your basement. That's really it. You've had Kevin O'Connell on the show.
- [24:25]
Kevin Clark
Yeah.
- [24:25]
Chad Millman
You love Kevin O'Connell going back a couple of years, I always felt like he got shafted a little bit for coach of the year when Brian Daball got it. And Kevin O'Connell did the same exact thing that Brian Dabel did. And then this year, he proved he's just consistently been a better coach by winning the way he did with Sam Darnold. Explain to our listeners some of the things that you learned from him about quarterbacking.
- [24:53]
Kevin Clark
So, first of all, you want to talk about analytics.
- [24:57]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [24:57]
Kevin Clark
My guy is deep in the weeds on. So I didn't know the lore of this as I said it. So I'd mentioned that J.J. mcCarthy, over the middle of the field, is one of the most efficient pastors in football. He knew those stats, but he also knew that J.J. mcCarthy, on the weighty downs, third and eight, third and nine, third and 10, was one of the most efficient pastures in the history of football. And apparently I was told in my replies that that was like a. Basically a Vikings blogger who wrote a piece about. About how good he was on weighty downs and that Kevin O'Connell clearly read that and repeated some of those stats. So, like, you want to talk about a guy who's ahead of the curve. How many coaches are reading their. Their own teams analyze bloggers. Right? Like that's, That's. Yes, that's different. Okay, that's different. And by the way, I think cam Ward beat JJ McCarthy's records on third and long. But we won't, we won't get into that just, just yet. But what I love about Kevin O'Connell is, and I'd heard him talk about this before, is that he doesn't. I think he, he views quarterback development very personally. If I don't help Sam Darnold, that's on me. And I think a lot of coaches, I'd say 25 coaches in the 32 say, Ah, we got this guy, he's in his fourth year. I'm not really gonna. We're gonna mail it in. Like, truly, we're gonna mail it. We're not going to give him any reps. We're not gonna try to develop him. And Kevin O'Connell sees it as his mission to take a Sam Darnold, even though you're getting J.J. mcCarthy could have started last year, but he wanted to develop Sam Darnold. And the other thing I think is important is he thinks and I think he lives it. Don't overreact at any point. I think we do this all the time. Don't overreact at any point to the quarterback. Don't overreact over OTAs. Don't take stock after training camp. It's all a journey. And the only. He said, the only thing you need to be thinking about is what is this player ceiling and what is the goal? What is the path towards that ceiling? Everything else is a distraction almost, right? It's like the old Nick Saban results are a distraction thing. And what's funny is I was just talking about this with, with Cam Ward because I'm thinking about someone like Anthony Richardson, where we know what a ceiling is. He's one of the most athletic quarterbacks of all time, Anthony Richardson, and you had to give him a Runway of two or three years to reach that ceiling. He gets hurt after a month of his rookie season. Everybody's trying to save their job in Indianapolis, and all of a sudden he gets spent for Joe Flacco, who, by the way, was. Did not steady the ship like I think that people thought the Joe Flacco. Oh, yeah, no, get there. He won't know he was bad. They were bad. And yet Richardson is going to get failed by the entire Colts thing because they didn't. They drafted a guy who was a project and didn't give the project time to develop into anything. And I said this on my show a couple of weeks ago. Have you guys ever heard the Paul DiPodesta analytics roller coaster analogy that he gave at a conference years ago? It's one of the best things I've ever heard. So they said when you're. If you're Paul d. Asked Paul DiPodesta what do you want in ownership? And he says, I don't know what I want in ownership, but I know what I don't want in ownership. And it happens all the time in analytics, which is acting like my child at the amusement park where they say I want to get on the roller coaster. When I get on the roller coaster and then it starts to get really scary. And as soon as it gets scary, my daughter goes, I went off the roller coaster. Get me off this roller coaster. Stop the ride. And with, with analytics, I think a lot of times to go back to what DePesta was saying, a lot of times ownership is like, of course you want analytics, of course you want analytics. Then we go, oh, by the way, we're going to trade the star player. Oh, by the way, we're not going to have a point guard to start the year. Oh, by the way, you know, like all of these things that you have to do in order to get those results, the ownership goes, well, we can't do that, we can't. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. We can't do that. And I kind of think the same thing is true of quarterback play. If you're drafting Anthony Richardson, what do you think's going to happen? The floor is very low and I think that a lot of times, like, did you expect him to, to be ready in September of his rookie year? Well, he would have gone first overall if that was the case. And so I think that, that when I look at someone like Kevin O'Connell, I look at a guy who's what the NFL needs for their quarterback development problem. He sees it personally, he wants to help these guys. He understands the timelines, he understands what J.J. mcCarthy is going to need. And frankly, you know, unless you're a Chiefs fan or five other teams, maybe I'd want Kevin O'Connell coaching my team if I was a fan.
- [29:30]
Chad Millman
Simon, I know you want to jump in, I mean, follow up real quickly because that quarterback thing is interesting. And Simon, you loved Anthony Richardson coming out of college. And to me it makes me wonder, why don't people think differently about drafting quarterbacks? If nobody believes Shador Sanders would be a top flight prospect in a year where there were other quarterbacks who were coming out who were better, why all of a sudden reach to draft him in the top 10? Do people really believe Cam Ward is as good a prospect as Caleb Williams, as Jaden Daniels?
- [30:17]
Kevin Clark
It's like, I do, I do.
- [30:18]
Chad Millman
By the way, we can get, okay, great, that's great. But if not, it seems like if you were, obviously the premium is on a quarterback because it's such the most, it's the most important position, but that leads to irrational decision making and that leads to reaching. And people are so afraid of what the optics are going to be. They can't make the actual in a Vacuum analytics decision.
- [30:46]
Simon Hunter
That's fair. I'm, I'm, I'm the wrong guy though, because I don't believe in the reaching for a quarterback. It's such a unique position in this league that it's like, like you're the Browns. If you think Sanders is a reach. It's why your organization is a bunch of losers and you've never had a good quarterback. It's like you're not in that position to say, well, that's a reach for organization, organization. It's, it's. No, you. You see, right, There's a specialty. Old school scouts, they're looking for guys that have, you know, they do one or two things really well, like all pro level and they can figure out the rest, right? Match it together. Anthony Richardson is a great example of that, of just pure raw talent. Played what, 13 games, 12 games in college, came out of 21. Crazy young. You knew there was going to be a ton of bumps on the road. Their organization is held as has been terrible at handling that. But also you hear rumors about him. Is he in there all day, working all day? Right. Does he come in early, leave late? Some things you hear he's not that type of guy, which again, if you're not that guy in the NFL, you're probably not going to last. Like, you just have to work so hard at the quarterback position. On the flip side, a guy like Jane Daniels, who played for what, five, six years in college, came out incredibly polished, incredibly mature. He didn't have those speed bumps right. He came out and I feel like after one or two games he adjusted to the NFL. So I'm with you on that, Chad, where it's like, it is tough with some of these teams because they're trying to over evaluate these positions. But for my mindset, it's just like you got to keep shooting. Like Cam Ward, I love this kid's skill set. He has a bunch of little things he does. Or I'm like, oh, this kid could easily be a stud in two or three years. Or we can have this weird run we've been on, Chad, where CJ Strout came out right away, legit playoff quarterback, changed his whole team's organization the following year. Jaden Daniels, we've been on this run now of these quarterbacks coming out, way more mature that people give them credit for, just into the NFL fashion that people give them credit for. And again, that comes down to the analytics of these teams know exactly the best thing to do with these quarterbacks. The other teams don't right. The other teams need a year to adjust. So that's why I'm interested to see James D's upcoming season. We saw cj Teams adjusted to him last year even though they had a ton of injuries. What are the adjustments to Gene Daniels? Because right now, even breaking down his film chat, I don't see it. Like, this kid, he's got it all. Like, if he can keep that mentality, he's going to be a problem next year. So I miss your Kevin's view on it because it's, he's in the same boat as me. Like, he liked Anthony Richardson, but we both agree like that ownership, the coaching staff, it feels like they've all failed him at this point.
- [33:08]
Kevin Clark
Well, with Richardson in particular, what if you taught him to be more of a professional instead of just giving up on him? And I thought the marketing of the benching was really stupid. You know, it was like, hey, Shane Steichen, is he gonna be your quarterback of the future? And Steichen was like, oh, well, you know, I guess we'd love that. Yeah, sure. What made anything's possible, you know, like, it was like when they mentioned this year, it was like he was never coming back. You think about Bryce Young and obviously the Andy Dalton car accident played into this, but like they still believed in Bryce Young and they still developed him and they weren't going to give up on him. And Bryce Young arguably was worse than Anthony Richardson ever was. It was just that Anthony Richardson tapped on his helmet to give up on a player, give up on a drive, which again, you teach him and you move on. There's a lot, not a lot of guys who are finished product. You mentioned Jaden Daniels. He played forever in college. I call those guys doctor quarterbacks because Bo Nix and Michael Pennix and jaden Daniels played 100 years and threw, I think a thousand. All of them threw a thousand more passes than J.J. mcCarthy. It's it. They were playing a different sport. They had a different developmental thing with Ward, I can tell you why I think he's like a franchise guy. I, I, I could tell you a million things. My two concerns. So he tries to make things happen a la Josh Allen, which is a good thing. Coaches like that. You want to say, what's the old thing you want to say, you want to rein him in instead of, you know, kicking him on the butt, basically, and he will go for it. And my concern is if there's really bad turnover luck early or, you know, he's so comfortable in the pocket, he's he operates so not casually, but so slowly. He'll hang in there, which is a strength in college. You do it against Miles Garrett, it's strip sack, right? It's, It's a, It's a, it's a scooping score. So those are my two concerns. My concern is one bad month and all of a sudden, oh, we're gonna go see what will Levis. You know, it's, it's, it's that kind of thing. I don't think that's gonna happen. I'm just saying that you what. What the organization needs to say in the front end, I think they will. I think the Titans are really smart. Whoever drafts Cam Warden, I'm gonna assume that's gonna be the Titans, barring a trade, needs to say there's going to be plays, and there were only five of them at Miami, where he throws across his body because he's trying to win the game. And it is a really, really ugly series. And we got to say, you know what? That's just who he is. The same thing that Bill said about Josh Allen. That's who he is. We, we're going to try to tweak a little bit, but we're going to let him go. Oh, he fumbled on one play because he was trying to do too much. Okay, fine. He's going to get to January as our starter. And guess what? He's going to get to next January as our starter. You almost, and I've thought this before, Pat Riley, I guess before the Heat, Big three thing, came to Eric's Bolstra and said, there is nothing you can do to get fired. There is nothing you can do. And there's going to be so much noise on, you know, hey, LeBron is leaking that he wants to bring in his own people. LeBron was listening to the timeout. Doesn't matter. You're the coach. And with someone like Ward, where there's going to be bumps on the road because of how aggressive he plays, the best thing to do is say, cam, there is not a thing in the world that will get you bench. And it's the exact same thing they should have said to Anthony Richardson.
- [36:27]
Simon Hunter
And I love that too, where, like Chad's saying it, it is random, right? No one really knows in the draft who's going to be the guy when they're drafting quarterbacks. My favorite thing will always be, you don't know in many camps. But, you know, come July, August, when everyone's in camp together, you can see, like, my favorite story ever Will always be the Alex Smith story. Like, they're, they're in Kansas City and they're, they're just getting there in August. Everyone's getting ready for the upcoming season. And even Alex Smith turned to his coach and was like, holy, this Patrick Mahomes kid is. Is the real deal. Like, there's certain guys coming to the league immediately. They're just so talented. It jumps off the board. And, you know, we've had a run here of these quarterbacks of, you know, just absolute game changers. Like, it's, it's been shocking how much good quarterback play we've had come into this league lately. And you just mentioned him that me and Chad love, right, we love the Panthers and we love talking about what they're going to do down there and know the future of Bryce Young and someone that, you know, my whole knock on him was I just didn't see the ceiling. Like with Anthony Richardson. I saw the, the ceiling of a Josh Allen type, big body, incredible arm, freak athlete Bryce Young. I just never saw what the ceiling was. I know people were like, well, he could be a Drew, Drew Brees type. There's only one Drew Brees in my lifetime. Like, there's never been another type like that. That's small, with an incredible arm, deadly accuracy. But you saw flashes of that last year at the end of the season. I saw what people said when they talk about him. I mean, you interviewed Dave Canales. What's his view coming on the season? What's, what's the view right now of him? You know, this is, in my mind a make or break season for him. Year three. If they don't do well, how do they not take a quarterback at this point? So I'd love to hear your view after talking to their head coach.
- [38:01]
Kevin Clark
They believe in Bryce, obviously, going into this year. I think part of it, I think Bryce works really hard and is coachable. And I think those are the two things even going into the season. I know some guys down there in Carolina and they were saying, listen, the, it's not. I forget what the phrasing of someone down there in Carolina told me. Like, it's not about him becoming the next Drew Brees. It's about him becoming the next Baker Mayfield. You know, like the 13th, 12th best quarterback. I think that Alex Smith had a start to his career in San Francisco that was abysmal. And I've talked to Smith about this. It took him three years to get over his first start because of just how bad it was. I think that look I think if you were that bad when you come in, it probably means you're not going to be Mahomes. It probably means you're not going to be C.J. stroud. You can still be the 12th best quarterback in the NFL. You can still be Baker Mayfield. You can still be that level. I think that that's the most important thing for Carolina now. It was raising the floor and giving him those options. And when I talked to Canales, I said, what's the key to that thing? And he said, the key is meeting them in the middle and saying, if you work hard, I will reward you with routes that you like, concepts you like. If you come to me and say I can throw this route reliably over the middle, for instance, I will build a playbook around that. So long as you give me proof of concept, that you're going to work your butt off, you're going to get there, and you're going to hit that route every single time. That's. That's it is that the coaches do their jobs, the quarterback does their jobs. They both have a trust. Trust is the word that he used a million times. That's what ended up happening with Bryce Young, is they said, can you work to a point where you can do these things well? And he's, yes, okay, fine, we'll build the playbook around that. All of a sudden, that's how you raise the floor. So to me, again, going back to the Kevin O'Connell thing, that's coaching Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, those are the three coach quarterbacks that Dave Canales has coached over the past, what, five years. And that's what he's done. Every single place is raised the floor with trust and with schemes and saying, only do what you do well. And I think that's the one thing, I think in the old football guys, there was a lot of, hey, this, we're going to draft this quarterback. He's going to run our system. And if he can't run our system, he's out of here. And I think that what it is now with the way the college is, it's like we're gonna. So Brian Callahan is a Titans coach, was on my show and we talked about. He wasn't about Cammore, he's talking about Joe Burrow. Of course, he would never talk about Ken Ward, but he was saying that the one thing he tried to do with Burrow is make year one in Cincinnati, be year three at lsu, make the concept so familiar that you're not sitting there trying to learn calculus, right? You're saying, oh, I can do this. And then if the bullets start flying and the speed of the game isn't what he thought or whatever, you can go, okay, you know what we're going to do, Joe? We're going to run the eight concepts that you ran exactly at lsu. And I think you can probably read into the fact that Brian Callahan has been revisiting his Joe Burrow notes. He's been re watching the zooms he had with Joe Burrow because that was during COVID So we had it all recorded. It's all on his computer. So I think you probably read into that with what they're going to do with the first overall pick. And I think you can probably read into the idea that they're going to take a lot of stuff from Cam Ward's offense. So that's a lot of RPOs. I mean that's, it's, it's a lot, it's a lot of middle of the field stuff. There's probably going to be a lot of that, lot of tight end usage. A lot of that is, is probably going to be in Tennessee year one. And that's, that's what a good coach does.
- [41:23]
Chad Millman
That detail right there about him rewatching the zooms, thinking about Joe Burrow in his third year at lsu, which could be equivalent to Cam Warden his first year at Washington State, like that is a great fucking deal. Cap, that is like that detail right there, that's fucking.
- [41:45]
Kevin Clark
Who's to say Cam Ward is the first overall pick? I can only present the facts as they were presented to me, that somehow Brian Callahan is sitting around looking at the old zooms of Joe Burrow. So of course the number one overall pick will be Abdul Carter. Of course.
- [41:59]
Chad Millman
Still, that is joke.
- [42:01]
Kevin Clark
It's going to, it's 100% going to be Ward.
- [42:03]
Chad Millman
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- [43:17]
Greg Rosenthal
It's Greg Rosenthal and I'm teaming up with the King of Spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs mock drafts to my top 101, free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [43:47]
Jeremy Scott
Something unexpected happened after Jeremy Scott confessed to killing Michelle Schofield in Bone Valley Season one.
- [43:54]
Chad Millman
I just knew him as a kid.
- [43:56]
Jeremy Scott
Long silent voices from his past came.
- [44:00]
Kevin Clark
Forward and he was just staring at me.
- [44:02]
Jeremy Scott
And they had secrets of their own to share.
- [44:06]
Gilbert King
Gilbert King I'm the son of Jeremy Lynn Scott.
- [44:12]
Jeremy Scott
I was no longer just telling the story. I was part of it.
- [44:16]
Gilbert King
Every time I hear about my dad is, oh, he's a killer. He's just straight evil.
- [44:20]
Jeremy Scott
I was becoming the bridge between a killer and the son he'd never known.
- [44:25]
Gilbert King
If the cops and everything would have done their job properly, my dad would have been in jail. I would have never existed.
- [44:30]
Jeremy Scott
I never expected to find myself in this place. Now I need to tell you how I got here.
- [44:37]
Gilbert King
At the end of the day, I'm literally a son of a killer.
- [44:40]
Jeremy Scott
Bone Valley Season 2 Jeremy Jeremy, I.
- [44:45]
Kevin Clark
Want to tell you something.
- [44:46]
Jeremy Scott
Listen to new episodes of bone Valley Season 2 starting April 9 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and to hear the entire new season ad free with exclusive content starting April 9th. Subscribe to Lava for Good plus on Apple Podcasts.
- [45:04]
Chad Millman
As we said, the Masters is this week starts on Thursday. You've been doing the Betcasts with ESPN for golf. How do you think about golf from the analyzing the sport from a betting point?
- [45:23]
Kevin Clark
I don't bet on football. Football. And the reason I don't is because I bet every single Tournament. Golf tournament. I can. And I know how mad I get at Xander Shoffley when he misses a nine footer that cost me money. Okay, there he goes. From. From T8 to T12, right? And I just couldn't imagine that being Bobby Wagner missing a tackle and costing me, you know, an NFC east futures bet. And then a week later, Bobby Wagner's on my show, and I'm just shooting daggers at him and saying, what the hell was that, Bobby? Like, I just know it, right? So I. There's a separation of church and state for me.
- [46:04]
Chad Millman
It's not a moral separation. It is a emotional, personal, ethical, journalistic.
- [46:11]
Kevin Clark
I just want to come to it as. Ethics is the wrong word. It's more journalistic. I want to come to everything completely neutral. What's funny now? And I'm thinking, I can name any names, but you can see who has what bets based on people's Twitter feeds during a game now, where it's like, these refs are out of control. And it's like, okay, buddy, I know you had Florida. Relax. Okay?
- [46:33]
Chad Millman
That's so funny.
- [46:34]
Kevin Clark
And. And for me, I never want to be the guy who's. Who's analyzing a sport I'm paid to cover like that in any way other than. Than fairness and anything other than. Like I say, if I had CJ Stroud to win an MVP this year as a futures bat, Simon, I would have interrupted you and said, well, no, no, you're wrong about. We gotta. The thing about C.J. start. Like, I would have come it through that way. Now I'm coming through it. Only the Prism Love. Is CJ Stroud gonna make a leap that he didn't make last year? Like that. That's. That's the way I want to do it. So for me, I love the analytics of golf. Like, that's the one thing. I saw cousin Sal at the airport at the super bowl last year, and we're talking about gambling. And I said, I'm. I love gambling on golf. And he said, what? I guess he's less into it. And he said, sell me on this for a second. I said, well, imagine Patrick Mahomes played on a different field every single week. And that some weeks it was 100 yards, some weeks it was 70 yards, but it was. It was more width. And you had to figure out every single week whether or not this is going to help or hurt Mahomes game. And that you would look at Mahomes, you know, last seven games, and look at his ball flight and figure that out. And like, Imagine just the different rabbit holes you'd go down because it's. This is. Golf is a sense of place more than anything, and you get to understand this stuff. And Augusta is the heightened version of all of this because it's the same stuff every year with a few changes. I guess the hurricane changed some of the tree layouts or whatever, but it's ball strikers. And if. If you guys gamble on golf, you know, take ball strikers and figure the rest out later, that's a pretty reliable way to get a bunch of top tens and top 20s to hit. It's course history that matters a lot. And then there's all these things that are unique to Augusta. I saw Rick Gaiman had an awesome nugget on his podcast yesterday, I think, where he said that in his research, the guys who do the best at putting on Augusta, it's not till your sixth year, statistically, that you. You tend to figure it out. You're six through ten playing Augusta are the years you peak as a putter because it takes you that long to figure out the greens at Augusta. And so I don't think there's many places like this. I think that maybe I'm biased because it's. It's one of the only sports that I really do bet on, but I think betting the Masters is the best betting experience you can have. Maybe, maybe the NCAA tournaments, more fun or more endorphins or whatever, or more. More stimulation. Like, this is unbelievable. And what's funny about it, for me, I was mentioning the ball strikers was always frustrating about the Masters because I bet on ball strikers every single week and just go, hey, who's. Who's Tita Green? Who's a pro chat guy? Let's bet on that guy. It's always one of my guys who wins this. Always. But it may not be the guy went all in on this week. Like, I owe the year Hideki1. I go all in on Hideki, like every other tournament. I happen to not go in Hideki that week, and I, you know, I think I probably broke even that week or whatever. But it's like, for real golf gamblers, this is. This is just heaven. And I just love sorting through all the info.
- [49:28]
Chad Millman
So who are your. We're going to. I want to go through.
- [49:31]
Kevin Clark
Yeah.
- [49:32]
Chad Millman
Your high end, your mid tiers. But before we get to start with your high end, like, top of the leaderboard, top of the odds.
- [49:39]
Kevin Clark
Yeah. So I don't know what to do with the live guys, to be completely honest with you. People keep telling me There are, Lord help us. There are people saying Sergio Garcia is live here. And I, I don't know what the hell. I don't know what, what are we doing? What are we doing on live? I don't know. Rom people talking about Cam Smith as someone. But for me, the two guys at the top of my card, a Rory McElroy, obviously, plus 600 to win, minus 140 to be a top 10. I'll figure that, that out. And then Justin Thomas, he's 22 to 1 to win. For me, the, the Justin Thomas thing is simple for top 15 and T to green. So T to green, strokes gained, which is basically just how well you hit the ball until you get to the green. That last 36 rounds, he's in the top 15. Birdie or better percentage, he's number one, par five. So if you guys know anything about Augusta par five, you, the, the who rule, the rule of thumb is you just let the par fours happen. Let the pars threes happen. You get really aggressive on par fives. Really aggressive. Well, guess what? Justin Thomas is number one over the past 36 rounds in par five strokes gained, number eight in eagles around the green, 12th and a three pot avoidance, which is important. This, this week, he's in the top 10. So for me, I'm betting Rory because I think he's an amazing ball striker. And I just think, think, frankly, I know this is not great gambling terminology. I think he's due, I think he's better. You know, a couple of the golf analysts were saying he's getting better at course management. He's hitting softer shots. He's, he's always gone full send, and he's always hit it as hard as he could. Like, like when we're out on the, like, I, I, I do this all every year. I'm like, you know what? This is the year I'm just going to start grooving nine irons. I'm gonna, I'm gonna club up and just, just manage the course. And then I get out there and I'm like, what if I hit my driver 270? What? I'm just gonna, that's all I care about. And then you end up up shooting 89 instead of 80 because of it. Right? And Rory, it sounds like the past couple weeks, couple months has gotten a little better at actually following that advice and having the softer shots. But to me, it's, it's, it's Thomas and it's Rory. At this point, guys, I don't have really any top Top live guys on my card. I. I'm kind of gonna miss it with Ramen kept. I've got the data, I've got the strokes gained data, and there's evidence that suggests I'm wrong here. I just think playing on live is just a different deal. And I don't know. And we've seen, obviously, Bryson win last year. It's just hard for me to quantify that and say, I'm going to go all in on these guys in the. In the way that is necessary to win at the Masters.
- [52:13]
Simon Hunter
And I wonder, like, with someone like Rory, you're not worried that he's broken mentally just because it's been what? I mean, something. I love the Rory because, you know, he's from Northern Ireland. You know, I know he's not the biggest fan being British, but that's why I heard about him, because I am a fan of being British, of British golfers. And, you know, the fact that I'm trying to think, is it. Is it 2013, 2014, or 2015 was the last time he won a major. We've seen him evolve. His whole life has changed so much since then. You're right. Like, feels like he's been playing his best golf. Do you have confidence in him, though, on that Sunday, if he has that lead, it's gotta be scary.
- [52:49]
Kevin Clark
I gotta be honest, after. After Pinehurst, that's another question. But to me, the biggest problem with the Master is Simon was always Thursday. It was always, oh, he shot at 79. What the hell just happened? And then he ekes his way back in. I. I think he gets too juiced up for this. That's why I was so encouraged to hear the reports of him managing the course. Well, whatever. Like, you know, Bill Walsh had a quote I go back to all the time, which is, there's no such thing as clutch. There's just executing normally when everybody starts to lose their head, right? And there's another quote from Jimmy Johnson in Seth Wickersham's belichick book. About 24 out of the 30 teams are going to get out of your way in any given season. Just don't be one of those teams. The problem with the Masters guys is Rory loses his head and is and is one of the teams that gets out of the way. And that Koepka can look at Rory and go, don't have to worry about this guy. He's all juiced up, you know, like that kind of thing. At some point he's gonna learn and he's adjusted. So many things Simon, you know this in following him, he's played before, he skipped before, he's given more rest, he's given more, more warm up rounds. He's tried so many different things. At some point you just have to believe that he's a good enough player to break through. At some point you just have to believe it. And if you look at some of the form stuff, Rick Gaiman has some stuff. Data Golf has some stuff. He's one of the hottest players in the world relative to his baseline, which is important. We saw, we saw, even though it was JJ Spawn, who by the way is on some of my cards this week, we saw him take care of business in the playoff at the Players. I just feel like at some point it's going to be his week. I'm going to regret having not. I've. How many times like Bay Hill have you not bet Rory and Nico, what the hell is this? He's like juiced up and he's high fiving everybody and you're like, all right, I hope, hope Henrik Stenson hangs on. Meanwhile you lose all your money, right? It feels to me like a Rory week where you're. I always, with football teams in particular, I always say, like, what's the reverse Engineer? What in 10 years am I going to go, of course this team won the Super Bowl. Look at the roster, look at the defensive tackles, look at this guy on this contract, like the Eagles this year, you're looking at the, the roster and you're going, in 2035, we're gonna look back and be like, of course the team won this. What the hell are we thinking? Thinking the Rams are going to beat them or the Commanders are going to beat them. With golf, I do the same. And I'm thinking at some point I'm going to look back in the 2025 Masters and I think I'm going to be surprised Rory didn't win. And I always want to bet to those guys.
- [55:13]
Chad Millman
You know, it's so funny, Simon, you mentioned that. So when I was in Palm beach this weekend, I'm working on a new book and part of the book is about the guy who invented the point spread. And his, his grandson lives in Palm beach and his grandson was a professional golfer and is now a professional golf instructor. And so he was basically groomed to be a professional better. Ultimately, he did not become a professional better. But a lot of the lessons, his grandfather, who, you know, was a master's student in math in math at the University of Chicago, and Kevin, he's basically the Original quantum. Like he was making models in the 1930s, using legal pads to do all the chicken scratch math before there were algorithms he could use on a computer. But all he did, the guy I was with in Palm beach this weekend, was talk about the mental elements of golf. You know, he loves golf, obviously, so much. And the way he was talking about how everything is that, you know, three square inches of real estate in your head, talking about the difference between his level of success and the level of success of people who are at the level that Rory is at. I feel like Rory can handle it. I think actually the breakdown probably helped get him into the right frame to be overcome that the next time it happens.
- [56:52]
Kevin Clark
I completely agree with you. I think that resilience can be. Can be learned. I think that. I mean, the mental part of it is what it is. I view so many of these guys, and I said this a million times before, but I view it like AFC quarterbacks, where I just said it to Brandon Bean the other day and the reverse. But if you look at Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, they should win the super bowl every year. Every year. They should win the super bowl every year. And they don't because of a little tiny thing. Hey, we don't. This wide receiver two got hurt. This left tackle got hurt. The defense was good enough. Whatever. There are 15 guys who strike the ball well enough to win every single week on tour. John Rahm should win every single major. And not to be like the Giannis LeBron thing. John Rom would win 50 majors if he was born in 1950. Right. That's just kind of the way it goes. And so for me, the mental part of it is the entire thing. And I think Rory Simon might be getting better at that. I know those are famous last words. I know we probably, if you listen back to whatever your guest was on April 8th last year was probably saying the same thing, but at some point, he's too good not to break through.
- [58:10]
Chad Millman
Do you have any mid tier long shots that you're looking at?
- [58:15]
Kevin Clark
Well, so Shane Lowry staying on the. Staying on the Rory thing, just always going to ball strike in the way. That is just incredibly impressive. And let's see, seventh and tea to green, eighth and three, putt avoidance, top 30 in par fives, top 10 in eagles, 22nd around the green. So Lowry is always going to be my card. And then if I had to give a longer shot in this mid tier, I'm gonna go. Sepstraka, who I actually heard Pat Mayo just shouted him out and is on the Straka train. Top five in T to green, Birdie or Betty. Better. Top three, par five, top two. Like, Strock is the kind of guy that is pro. If I had to guess, he might be built for this. He might. He might be built for this. And obviously I don't think he has a ton. He was. He was 16th in the Masters last year. Looking at it now, like, I would not be surprised for the substraka top five. And I'm going to bet that Shane.
- [59:16]
Chad Millman
Lowry 35 to 1, Straka 60 to 1.
- [59:19]
Kevin Clark
Yeah.
- [59:19]
Chad Millman
Last question for you. If you had to give us. I know you don't bet on football. If you had to give us a Masters champion. Super bowl champion.
- [59:31]
Kevin Clark
Yes.
- [59:32]
Chad Millman
Give it to us.
- [59:36]
Kevin Clark
All right. Geez. I'm pretty sure. I'm pretty sure Justin Thomas is going to win. I know we spent the time on Rory, but I'm pretty sure Justin Thomas is going to win. Okay. That's my. That's my number one.
- [59:51]
Chad Millman
Pretty sure. I'm pretty sure.
- [59:53]
Kevin Clark
I'm pretty sure. You can take that to the bank. I'm gonna go. Thomas and the Ravens.
- [59:58]
Simon Hunter
Every year we got a believer. Chad, Ravens believer. I love it.
- [60:02]
Chad Millman
I know, right?
- [60:03]
Kevin Clark
Every year that's so much better. As the season went along last year, I know what happened in the playoffs, but, like, they have a new D.C. i think I believe in Lamar in a way that maybe a lot of people don't. I'm going JT and the Baltimore Ravens.
- [60:19]
Chad Millman
Every year the Ravens are an auto future bet. Simon. I'm pretty sure the first time Kevin said Justin Thomas at 22:1, I saw you put your head down and I. I feel like you were betting it.
- [60:31]
Simon Hunter
Yep.
- [60:31]
Chad Millman
Justin Thomas, you know me well.
- [60:33]
Simon Hunter
Jeff, you know me well. I do want to say to our listeners, if you're like, not feeling it right, the Northeast, it's cold right now. It's a little shitty out. Chad, I know you're going through the same thing.
- [60:42]
Kevin Clark
Yeah.
- [60:42]
Simon Hunter
If you're not in the Masters mode, throw on Tiger 2019 on YouTube. It's like a 40 minute cut up. Some are an hour long. It will literally put you right back into the Masters movie. The guy watched it two days ago. I'm gonna literally watch it again as we get off this call because it is. It's the best. We just talked about the mental side of the game. I miss the Tiger Red so much, but it just, it puts you in the right headset of the Masters. The elegance, the weather. Like, I think this weekend's gonna be perfect in the 70s, maybe a little rain on Friday, but it's the best. The Masters really is the best golf tournament.
- [61:16]
Kevin Clark
Have you been, Chad?
- [61:17]
Chad Millman
I've never been. And it's funny, the wedding I was at this weekend, a lot of people were going from Miami. They were sticking around and then just going to Augusta.
- [61:28]
Simon Hunter
What a life.
- [61:29]
Chad Millman
It's. I know. It's one of the two events I've never been to that I'm dying to go to Masters in Wimbledon. And it just kills me that I've never been.
- [61:39]
Kevin Clark
I'll tell a three second story. I don't care about Wimbledon. I care about the Masters deeply. And this time of year it's hard for me to go. But when I was at the ringer, my last contract, the ringer I had said, hey, can I do the golf majors? And he said, sure, that sounds good. And so I was going to apply to a master's thing. And then my mom was getting honored by our college that Friday and I couldn't miss the mom thing. And my mom doesn't understand golf at all. And so I didn't apply. And then I was explaining to my mom, I was like, hey, I'm going to go to your event and I'm not going to go to mass. She says, why don't you just call the Masters? She's a sports fan, but she didn't get the master. She goes, just call the Masters and tell them you can be there Sunday. And I go, that sounds like a lifetime band, Mom. That sounds like. I don't think you know who we're dealing with exactly. Hey, guys, I sorry, I have a thing. I can I just leave my ticket, like Sunday morning. I'll be there, I'll be there. I'll see you guys. And I was like, I'm going to go ahead and not call the Masters and tell them I'll be there Sunday.
- [62:31]
Chad Millman
Mom, moms are the best. You know, they. It's like I just optimism, just a lot of optimism. I was talking to my mom last night about. I was just catching up with her. I hadn't spoken to her in the week and I had just gotten. I just landed back in Connecticut. And she's like, oh, how did it. How was the wedding? How was your, you know, your day with your guy and all that kind of stuff? I'm like, it's great. Then she says to me, hey, listen, in my book club there's a woman, her brother in law, he worked at ESPN for a long time. You think, you know Him. I'm like, what's his name? She goes, I'm not quite sure of his name. It sounds like Kimmel, but it's not. I'm like, well, is it Jimmy Kimmel? She goes, no, it's not Jimmy Kimmel. But then she's explaining it to me and like, well, how old is the guy? She goes, he's about my age. So he's, you know, 77. I'm like, Mom, I'm not going to know the guy. Like, he's. I'm old and he's 25 years older than me and I don't even know when he was there, what he did, where he worked, and you don't know his name. But then she keeps trying to explain it. And finally I said to her, ma, I don't know why we're still talking about this. I'm not gonna know the guy. And she goes, I get it, okay? I'm sorry, honey. Unfortunately, that is right when my 18 year old walked into the room and then he laughed and walked out. And when I walked into the living room where he was sitting with my wife, they were both talking about how much I couldn't stand talking to my mom. And it's like the exact opposite behavior of what I'm trying to model for my kids. So when we are old, our kids don't roll their eyes every time we call them and not want to talk to us. And all I did was walk into it because my mom trying to be lovely and trying to be kind and just trying to say, oh my God, isn't it cool? You worked at ESPN and this guy worked at ESPN and you might know him and this woman's in my book club. Instead I acted like a dick and now I feel bad.
- [64:26]
Kevin Clark
Wow. Now you have to have lunch with this guy, this 77 year old I gotta find.
- [64:31]
Chad Millman
It's my work to find this guy. Kevin Clark. This is football. That detail about Brian Callan and Joe Burrow. That's why people should listen to this as football, which is about a good football podcast. As there is. Good luck on first take this week. Good luck with the bet, Good luck with everything at espn. You're awesome. You're revolutionary. You're a media archetype. Thanks for coming on the show.
- [64:55]
Kevin Clark
Thanks.
- [64:56]
Chad Millman
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At BET 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday, 11am Eastern. Download a Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your podcast. Rate Reviews Subscribe Leave us. 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you.
- [65:54]
Jeremy Scott
Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [66:05]
Greg Rosenthal
What's up, everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal, and I'm teaming up with the King of Spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs mock drafts to my top 101 free agents, we'll have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday, keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [66:36]
Jeremy Scott
Something unexpected happened after Jeremy Scott confessed to killing Michelle Schofield in Bone Valley Season one.
- [66:43]
Gilbert King
Every time I hear about my dad is, oh, he's a killer. He's just straight evil.
- [66:48]
Jeremy Scott
I was becoming the bridge between Jeremy Scott and the son he'd never known.
- [66:53]
Gilbert King
At the end of the day, I'm literally a son of a killer.
- [66:55]
Jeremy Scott
Listen to new episodes of bone Valley Season 2, starting April 9 on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.