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- [00:00]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:30]
AJ Stephens
$1.4 billion in NFL quarterback contracts. The untold stories behind the biggest deals in football history. I'm AJ Stephens, vice president of client strategy at Athletes first, introducing the Athletes First Family podcast, the Quarterback series. My co host, Brian Murphy, Athletes first CEO and I are sitting down with the agents who have negotiated contracts for Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and and Jordan Love. Listen to athletes first family podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:04]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Vir here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virkin Demers, Jason.
- [01:09]
Jason Demers
Demers here, And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [01:14]
Adnan Virk
I got a lot to say here, too.
- [01:16]
Chad Millman
Okay?
- [01:16]
Adnan Virk
Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
- [01:18]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in, too, but we're not just gonna be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking TV, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on Le Table.
- [01:28]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers in the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:36]
Tisha Allen
You are cordially invited to the hottest party in professional sports. I'm Tisha Allen, former golf professional and the host of welcome to the Party. Your newest obsession about the wonderful world that is women's golf. Featuring interviews with top players on tour, tips to help improve your swing, and and the craziest stories to come out of your friendly neighborhood country club. Welcome to the Party with Tisha Allen is an iHeart woman's fourth production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. Listen to welcome to the Party that's P A R T E e on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [02:27]
Simon Hunter
Welcome to the favorites the podcast present presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday Conference Championship episode. We will break down the lines for the AFC and NFC conference title games. We will discuss our exec decision and our assignment says do not fret. On Thursday we will have the usual menu, sharp calls, foxhole, big balls, all that good stuff. Plus we will get into some futures talk with the remaining teams, the four remaining teams and their super bowl odds as they stand right now. How do we want to play those heading into Conference Championship weekend? Obviously we're going to believe there's some value there. You want to get ahead of that. We're also going to have a lot of conversations about hedging strategies. The before the season began, Simon and I both gave out super bowl matchup plays. Simon actually gave out a Super bowl matchup with the winner. Both of those were at very long odds. Both of those bets from Simon and I are still alive. So we want to talk a little bit about our hedging strategy heading into this weekend. I would bet that a lot of people have some kind of matchups in play that certainly involve potentially the Bills, the Eagles. The Bills are the Chiefs and the Eagles. So good opportunity to run through some of the strategies on Thursday. Live from our Tommy John home studios, I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [04:14]
Chad Millman
Chad. Life is good sitting here in my Tommy John sweatpants. Got my Eagles team in the conference finals. Damn. Like mad was saying before the show just there's a pep in your step when the sport you love, your team has one game away. One game away from Super Bowl. So yeah, it's, it's been a, it's been a fun two days so far since the Eagles won.
- [04:34]
Simon Hunter
Listen, there's a pep in your step when your team is a game away from the Super Bowl. The way you feel, the way Matt Mitchell feels. Matt Mitchell. If people don't know Matt Mitchell every year during the playoffs promises his entire neighborhood free ice cream if the Bills win a playoff game. So naturally he spent yesterday going to the grocery store in his entire Bill's get up his Bills poncho. He sent us a picture and then he buys pints of Ben and Jerry's and just pass it around the neighborhood. It was minus 20 degrees in Milwaukee yesterday. He made his son do it and it was lovely the way he sort of built some character with his son walking around the neighborhood handing out ice cream and now he's just got the entire neighborhood of packers fans screaming, go Bills. You know when else you get a little pep in your step? When you're moribund. Historically crappy, bad decision making, poorly run franchise pulls the hottest head coaching prospect of the past three years.
- [05:46]
Chad Millman
We got him, Chad. We got him.
- [05:48]
Simon Hunter
Got him. We get any and he walks into the building and there's standing ovation from all across Hallis Hall, Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams. This time next year, we're probably going to be talking about Caleb Williams and Jaden Daniels in the NFC title game and how amazing it's going to be to see these guys playing for the next decade against each other. Am I right?
- [06:15]
Chad Millman
I. I was so happy for you because that was. We talked. It felt like months ago now. That's how long this playoffs have felt this NFL season. But that was the guy they had to get that was in the division. He knows the best team in your division's offense in and out. Like, if there's one guy that has the secrets how to stop Detroit Lions offense, he's the guy. And then you think about the pairing of him offensive mind with Caleb Williams. It's, it's. I mean, how can you not be over the moon at this point? I mean, I could be big between. About the money. Like, oh, I think they're overpaying them. Thirteen million. Who cares? This organization never spends the money. Yeah, it's. I'm just so happy. Like the Bears owner, who are notoriously cheap, they put the money up, they went and got the guy. And yeah, it literally. I love every move he's already made so far too. Like his hirings, Dennis Allen for your defense. I know people are like, oh, he's such a shitty head coach. This guy was a huge reason that Saints defense had a huge turnaround when he went there. Like, again, if you're a Bears fan, you're absolutely killing this offseason already. And I'm excited to see what happens here going forward because you already know that. You know, don't just go sign a bunch of big weapons. Go get that offensive line. Attack it. That's. That's the key. The rest of the. For me, for the Bears, the rest of this offseason, address the offensive line. So yeah, I mean, home run. Got it. Got to give tons of credit to the front, front ownership, everybody that runs the Bears right now. Because me, you like to shit on them because how shitty they've been. But even you are just like, holy shit, we got them.
- [07:43]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm floored. I was convinced we were getting Brian Flores or Mike McCarthy or Cliff Kingsbury. I also look, it's also interesting. Nobody was right. None of the reporting.
- [07:58]
Chad Millman
Shefty. Let's give some love to Shefty.
- [08:01]
Simon Hunter
Shefty was right when it was right. But in the run up, not a single person. The conversation all weekend was about Ben Johnson going to the Raiders and all the brouhaha, which was idiotic, about Tom Brady, conflict of interest and him calling the game and what he can say to Ben Johnson and then that incredibly awkward interlude he had with with with Kevin Burkhart about, are you staying at Fox? You know, is this a conflict? Like, it was so performative and stupid and none of it mattered because Ben Johnson went to the Bears. And by the way, I happen to know conversations with the Bears were like, deep in progress over the weekend when all this was happening. So, no, nobody had it and nobody was right. So just fantastic. Absolutely.
- [08:56]
Chad Millman
They got to change the rules. I mean, it's. If you're a Detroit's fan, I get the rage. But they got to change the rules because, like, like you just said, they were de conversations over the weekend. I mean, it's, it's absurd.
- [09:08]
Simon Hunter
It was, it was astonishing. But good for the Bears. I'm proud of them. So proud of this team. I love this franchise. I've given them so much. I want them to give back. That's it. That's it. I don't want to consign my kid to a lifetime of misery. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. Bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, we're going to go through Washington, Philadelphia. We're going to go through Buffalo at Kansas City. I will pull one important stat from Evan Abrams. Brilliant roundup of stats, trends and notes heading into the conference championship game, which you can read now on actionnetwork.com, read it in the Action Network Apple as it pertains to Underdogs so since 2003, underdogs in the conference championship are 20 and 22 against the spread. The only round of the playoffs below.500 against the spread in that span. In the super bowl era, since 1966, underdogs 53, 62 and one against the spread in the conference championship. That surprise you, Simon?
- [10:56]
Chad Millman
A little bit. But like you, you just think too about how random is. I think you know obviously that Bengals rams year went 20 dogs last year was 2 0. Right. Am I, am I wrong, Evan? I think last year's two no Chiefs is a dog against the Ravens. And I mean me and Chad. No, we, we. Or maybe Chad was on the other side. But I remember the back door. The lions are up 10. We needed a back door to cover against the 49ers.
- [11:18]
Simon Hunter
We were both on the Niners.
- [11:19]
Chad Millman
No, no, I was definitely on the lines.
- [11:22]
Simon Hunter
What was the. Oh, right, right, right, right, right. We were on the, we were on the Lions and we were thrilled because it was going well but we were.
- [11:29]
Chad Millman
Up 10 then they had to back door to get the like 7 point cover. Whatever was. But yeah, it's. So we're off to. We have a couple years here since you know, since COVID where the dogs have been covering. But I, what I take from that from Evan is basically the laws of averages. Like it. We're, we're due for a 2.0avorites week, right? That's the way I'm looking at it above. Yeah, the dogs just went 40 against the closing number. I mean we're, we're going to get into it here but it's like if the line keeps moving on, obviously this Washington team, that's going to be value on the dog here. But right now I think we both talked Sunday night. I thought there was value on the favorites. So it's not shocking to see the early money coming in on the favorites.
- [12:07]
Simon Hunter
Dog 7 and 3 in the playoffs so far, including 4 and oh against the closing number this past weekend. I'll reiterate, I was going through my notes yesterday and looked back at the notes from Sunday night based on Evan's tweet about dogs going four and oh against the closing number. But the way those games landed, that's a Hall of Fame betting weekend. The fact that it came down to Ravens who opened a plus two, missed a two point conversion in a flukish drop by a guy who doesn't drop passes, and a game in which their loss was partially set up by that same guy fumbling, which he hadn't done since 2019, the Chiefs getting a safety self induced for that game to land on nine when the number was between eight and a half and nine and a half all week. The, the Eagles pushing at 6 because of Jake Elliott missed extra points like and then by the way, the College football playoff last night, that game closed at eight and a half, opened at nine and a half, it was at eight and you know, with 90 seconds left, it's third and long. Ish. And you're thinking maybe we got a shot here to cover as a Notre Dame backer. They go 56 yards and score a game clinching covering field goal. What it like the, the drama around the edges of these numbers has just been insane. It's been so exciting and it's, it's.
- [13:56]
Chad Millman
Also why, you know, there's plenty of crazy people out there that believe there's some guy in the Swiss Alps with a time machine that makes these lines. Because you see a weekend like this, it's, it's literally just shows how smart the bookmakers are and why we much respect to them. We talk about it because all these games are half a point, half a point point here. And like you just said, stupidness, randomness to land on those exact numbers, right? 2 miss, 2 pointers miss extra point. And yeah, that's why we talk all the time that you know, people are like, why do you guys get so spooked off the number? This past year was just weird where numbers didn't really matter. When these island games happen though, and the books are really locked in, right? They're just all focused on hyper focus on these games. There's always gonna be outliers like that commander's game, but usually the one to two points are going to matter, especially in the playoffs. And like we just said this past weekend, you know, we personally on the show, or I did, I should say went three, zero and one, right. The one push against the Eagles should have been a four. No weekend. But the books are just so sharp. They make it so tough on paper. Depends when you got our numbers. You might have went 2 and 2, right? You lost on the Chiefs, you lost on the Eagles. Like it's brutal because the books are just that sharp right now. So yeah, we, we talked Sunday night. The numbers we gave out, Chad, they got slammed and that's just how it is in this point the time of year where it's like the books are smart. They'll take the professional money early week and they'll move heavy off respected money. And yeah, like I can't wait to dive into these games because it's, it's the best time of year. You get the best football and you get the smartest book bookmaker wise, like number wise. So it really is the best.
- [15:30]
Simon Hunter
Washington at Philly. The number is minus six. The total is 47 and a half. Eagles six point favorites. We talked about it on Sunday night. I bet this as soon as it opened at four and a half for two reasons. I just, I wondered if bookmakers were keeping it a bit low in case they were worried about Jalen Hurts not playing since the line posted before that Eagles Rams game was over. I had been wanting to fade Washington since the second it's game with the Lions ended. Like when you beat the number one seeded team as badly as they did in a high scoring game in prime time with 33 million people watching, there is no way they are not going to be overvalued the next day. So I was a little dismayed you and I chatted on Sunday night and I was all in on betting the four and a half. And then even in the conversation I got seven books in front of me looking at Action Network and sort of running across the screen. Five of them were at five or five and a half. Including bet365, only two were at four and a half. And I felt like you, even though you said your rating was at seven, you weren't banging the drum to go after the four and a half.
- [16:46]
Chad Millman
Yeah, because I know my quarterback. I watched him after the game laugh and give insane answers to the media woman interviewing him. And it's like, this dude's on a ton of drugs. This dude is drugged the up. Like his knees got to be bad because Jalen's not the type of dude that's like, yeah, shoot me up with whatever I need to get out there. He's, he's the kind of guy that he just wants to fight through and if he need, if he's in that much pain, I was like, holy, I need them to do some tests before I'm putting heavy money onto this team because like we talked about, like, yeah, I made the number seven. It was four and a half. Obviously I'm going to take a position on it. But my whole point was I'm not going to hammer this one like I was with the Chiefs number because I'm just like this, this, this, you know, you nailed it. Obviously this number is all the way up to six and a half and most books. But you know, that's part of my job. Like I put the number out there that had at seven. If we come in today and it's three and a half, I look like a fucking idiot. It's like that number, it went three and a half against what I just said. Luckily, it's gone the other way. And I think that, you know, what you just talked about gives us more confidence about hurts that he is going to be healthy in this spot.
- [17:47]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else you can find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but, like, all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like, it's all colored.
- [18:25]
Chad Millman
They changed the.
- [18:26]
Bobby Bones
And the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm going to be honest. It was a little pink.
- [18:30]
Chad Millman
There was something sentimental when you. When you send it. It was like, do I send the heart now?
- [18:36]
Bobby Bones
I don't like the color edition.
- [18:38]
Chad Millman
It's extremely pink.
- [18:39]
Bobby Bones
Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [18:46]
Chad Millman
There are so many different things we could dive into this game. Where do you want to start? Commanders or eagle side?
- [18:50]
Simon Hunter
I want to start with the person I think might be the most important player on the field for the Eagles, which is who is Jalen Carter. And the fact that Commanders are going to be without Sam Cosby, their right guard.
- [19:05]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [19:06]
Simon Hunter
And to me, normally a right guard would not mean as much on passing downs, but with Carter, it's so different. And Evan had this great stat in his packet. The fourth most pass block snaps for any guard this year were from Sam cosmi. That's a 51 guards with at least 500 pass blocking snaps. He was one of 11 with one sack or fewer allowed. So to me, I look, we already love the Eagles for a variety of reasons, but to me, it begins and ends with this defensive line, and that begins and ends with Jalen Carter.
- [19:46]
Chad Millman
Yeah, just brutal. Like, brutal, brutal loss, that offense. It's basically. It feels like the hierarchy goes jaden Daniels, Terry McClure and then him. Like that was the three most important parts of my opinion to their offense. And you nailed it. Like how dominant that guy's been in Passport. Now we know Jaden Daniels helps those numbers, right? Like if you have a. It's like Josh Allen. Like if you have a quarterback that can move, it's going to make the lines and numbers look way better and kind of give them the free bump. But when you really dive into it, this guy is so legit and the fact that he's going to be missing here, it's so much of. And just I just want to touch on what you touched at the top of it about. We already knew we were probably going to be on the Eagles just because the Jay Nails is getting more overvalued in the spot. I mean even screaming a Smith on ESPN is saying he likes them to win the Super Bowl. Now that this is the team of Destiny, you're dead. You are absolutely dead. When the man who doesn't watch football in 15 years is saying you're the team at destiny, you are absolutely dead. So I feel bad for the Washington Commanders, but they can live in this moment. You never know. That's what's so great about the playoffs in this exact spot. Like we're a couple of just talking heads. Fuck if we know. Like the game, the game can have weird bounces and they can easily win this game. They've put themselves in this position. But this is a game when you dive into the numbers, they are dead on arrival. Like there really is so many things that need to go their way for them to pull off this upset just because they are so underwhelmingly matched in so many different areas of this football game. And we just talked about them being overvalued. Chad, have you looked at futures at all for next season?
- [21:14]
Simon Hunter
Oh my God. It's fucking insane.
- [21:16]
Chad Millman
They're 16 to 16 to 1 these.
- [21:18]
Simon Hunter
Commanders, the Commanders, the hype commanders is absurd right now.
- [21:24]
Chad Millman
So they're above the 49ers, the, the packers, the Bengals, just to name a few right now in the future bowl super odds next year it's it's peak. Like we know the deal. Like Jane Daniels will be lucky, lucky to make the playoffs next year because we know regression is going to hit him like crack in the 80s. He is going to be hurting next year. Like the league is going to figure him out in a bunch of different ways. And that's just how it is in this league. Like we talk all the time. These are the Best of the best. The coaches are paid millions of dollars to sit back there and figure out ways. And you know, this is, this could be peak. That's why, like, I don't want to be shitting on this commander's thing too much. We've seen it so many times that, you know Dan Marino, the greatest quarterback when I was growing up in my lifetime, like watching on him in film, you know, paying me in time. Brady replaced him in my opinion of being the next like the greatest. But Marino, you go back and watch a tape, it's flukish that he never made it back to the Super Bowl. That's why Washington fans, you should enjoy this. You're literally a win away from the Super Bowl. I'm sorry I'm about to dive into these numbers and just shit on your team in a bunch of different ways. But that's what we're here to do. Chad, I just want to start right with our defense. Something me and you talked about. Their run defense. That is the biggest thing that jumps out to you when you dive in any of these numbers. I know. You know, there are some reasons that say they do get better in the second half. They are able to make adjustments and their run defense does improve in the second half. But just over the, over the course of the season, 26 and run defense DVOA. Okay, that's alarming. 23rd and Justin Lyon, 31st and second level yards allowed. So past the five and 10 yard.
- [22:59]
Simon Hunter
Marker, which is where Saquon Barkley lives.
- [23:02]
Chad Millman
Lives. 26 in open yards allowed.
- [23:06]
Simon Hunter
So Barkley lives.
- [23:09]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I mean it couldn't be worse. I mean, Evan just put our chat rushing proper saquon 127 yards might be too low. It might be too low. It's like to me, I was trying to find an angle for the commander just because, you know, Hertz is banged up. Jamie Daniels is the difference maker. We've like never seen a rookie quarterback like him. But that defense is a real issue now. When we really break this down and look at the games, me and you were all over Tampa against this commander's team. We even said it, if Baker just played a little bit smarter, that's a no brainer. Win cover, double digits. Yes. Like we both feel the same exact way about that.
- [23:46]
Simon Hunter
I feel like I'm your chorus right now. Anything you say, I'm just like, amen.
- [23:51]
Chad Millman
But it's just like you really dive into and I, I get the hype. But that's what people have to push through the media of the Shiny new toy. No one wants to see an Eagles chief Super Bowl. I'm an Eagles fan. I would love nothing more for a rookie quarterback to be playing the Bills. All the Bills history, honestly. I mean, again, I'm an Eagles fan. So, yes, deep down, I want the Eagles, clearly. But I'm saying as a fan of football, no one like, dude, it killed me last year having to talk 49ers Chiefs again. No one wanted to talk that again. So it's like, that's part of it. I get where. I get where the media is coming from hyping up this team right now, but when you really go through it, they needed Baker to have a disaster game, to have that type of game. They needed golf to melt, like, absolutely melt. And we joked about it. If they just handed the ball off that entire game, I really do think they probably win that game. And Detroit Lions and they're now in a spot playing an Eagles team that is plus six in the turnover rate. But I think we could both agree, Chad, they've not played their best football in two weeks in the playoffs. Like, they've left a lot of plays on the field. Like, they have struggled in different ways and now isn't coming to a team that, honestly, if this is the regular season, this would be the perfect spot to back this Eagles team in the sense of they match up great against them, and this is the kind of spot where they get back into their groove of what they've been this, this regular season. And, you know, the fact that the defensive numbers are what they are for the rush defense, that's everything to me because I agreed with a lot what you said about the Ravens and Bills. Like, the Bill's biggest weakness was the rush. And that's why I got where you're coming from. It's the same thing here. And hurts. On the flip side, he's been. The gift that he's been doing, he's not turning the ball over. That's why these Eagles teams have been winning these last two games. So, yeah, it's. It's when you dive into it, we're going to commander side right now. It's the first thing that jumps out to me. Yes, we're all impressed by Jane Daniels, but it's really this defense that they're just. They're totally being overlooked here. Like, no one's bringing up their defense just because we're all so enamored with Jaden Daniels right now.
- [25:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, the. The defense, the defense got so torched by the Lions running game. The Lions Almost pulled. Not almost. They kind of did pull what the Ravens pulled the year before against the Chiefs in the championship game. All they had to do was keep giving the ball to Jameer Gibbs and they kept, you know, they got too cute by half a couple of times, especially on that Jameson Williams pass. Right. And so like those things are game killers in the playoffs. The Eagles don't have that benefit. Jalen Hurts is hobbled like. And by the way, we still don't have official confirmation he's playing this weekend. We just haven't been given confirmation that he's got structural damage or anything that would keep him from playing. So we have to assume that he's playing. And by the way, the way the number's moving gives every indication that he is playing.
- [26:44]
Chad Millman
And real respective money. Right. Is moving on.
- [26:48]
Simon Hunter
That's what I was going to say. Yeah. We've seen on this show how often Simon is able to indicate ahead of the market because he has sources throughout the NFL, as do a lot of professional betters. It's not just Adam Schefter. Like everybody has sources in the NFL. I knew over the weekend what was going on with the Bears. Like the people have.
- [27:11]
Chad Millman
People like to talk. People like to talk.
- [27:14]
Simon Hunter
And so like it's, it's. People aren't betting heavy on the Eagles right now because they're guessing Jalen hurts. Yeah, might play. The Eagles don't have the same predilections as the, as the Lions. Right. They don't have the same kind of offense. Their offense is run behind Jordan. My lotta run behind Lane Johnson, give the ball to Saquon Barkley, let him get 127 and a half yards in one play. And on the third and four world. Jalen Hurts out, you know, and like keep moving the ball, wait for that big play, beat down the other side of the defense. So yeah, they're just good. And the commander's defense is so bad.
- [28:03]
Chad Millman
And even if Hertz is banged up, we just talked about it. He'll. They'll shoot him up. And to me, we've seen time and time again. I mean, one of my favorite bets ever, I lost to Chad. We went head to head. I like Cleveland, he liked the Browns. It was DeSean Watson's last game maybe ever for the Cleveland Browns. And basically they're down, I think ten, ten and a half. And Watson breaks his collarbone. They shoot him up. He comes out and is basically perfect. Brilliant against the Ravens the second half. And you've seen that time and time again. My favorite Too. Aaron Rodgers against your Bears team came on that second half all messed up, was perfect in the game, flawless in the second half. And it's just because it turns off that thinking piece, right? And you know, we joked about that Eagles game, people, I told you they were going to do it. They were going to shit on Hertz after that game last week because you have the numbers negating. AJ Brown dropped that touchdown. Negating in another drop for another 20 yards. You know, Smith had a drop that was another 20, 30 yards. It's like that's just how it is, right? Because a lot of these guys don't watch these games, which sounds crazy. People, I'm telling you. They just don't. They're living the good life. So to me, you know, even if Hertz is hampered here, we broke it down. What we think this is going to be, this is going to be a lean, heavy on run game. Hurts. Same thing he's been all season, especially in the playoffs here, 15 to 16 completions, maybe 25, 24 passes total. That's what the Eagles want to be. And it's. We saw with Josh Allen, the Bills, the teams have figured out where if you're just smart, protect the ball and run it. Let the other team make the mistake. It's impossible now to pick up big chunk plays usually let them dink and dunk down the field and wait for them to make a mistake. I do think it's stolen from the Chiefs. Like that's what the Chiefs model has been the last two years and all these teams have leaned into and adapted to it. And that's not Washington's game. Like that's not who Jay Daniels is. So yeah, this. I like the hype. I just love it all right now because it is fueling the public reception. Even the action app I was looking for, it came on the tickets all on the. All on Washington. Even though it's moved against them because you look in the action app, the money right now is on the Eagles. So it is professional money. Obviously early here. And you know, I know you love referee stats. Have you seen any of the ref stats for this game yet?
- [30:15]
Simon Hunter
I just saw one. The one about Sean Hockey Lee that Evan had as the only one I've seen.
- [30:21]
Chad Millman
Yeah. So Eagles six zero or Sean Hockley five and one against the spread. Commanders one and two zero. Three against a straight up. Oh and three against the spread with him. And again, doesn't really matter. That's kind of like a random, just stupid stat. But there's a lot of Ones this week that are just like that, that kind of back up that, you know, this is just a bad spot for the screeners team. The biggest one I took from Evan was the Commanders of the eighth team since 2000 entered a playoff game on their fourth row road game in a row. Fourth road game in a row. So pretty big deal. Those previous 7, 0 and 7 straight up 15 and 1 against the spread in this exact spot. So the commanders are just already in a really tough spot and there's already a lot of factors going against them defensively, offensively. So yeah, we, we talked about this. This rookie, the greatest we've ever seen. Never seen anything like it. He nearly, he literally needs to be perfect in this game for them to pull off this upset. So that's why right now I think we're both in agreeance. It's still under seven. I still think the value is on this Eagles team at six. So that's, that was a long winded way to get there. But that's what I wanted to get into is just there's so many different numbers back in this Eagles team in this spot. Not just what we, we know is betters, which is this is going to be an overvalued team. On the flip side, Eagles who didn't cover for about 90% of the betters who took them and you know, they look bad, they have a banged up quarterback, they're now the underrated team favorite at home in a spot that's great for them. So a very unique spot for back in this Eagles team.
- [31:46]
Simon Hunter
Two things I'm glad you brought up. Number one, there are when you get to this stage, a shitload of red herring stats, right? That, that way. But the hockey league stat, the other stat about the, the, you know, four straight road games, they're good information, but they're not the information you base your decision on. And oftentimes our first instinct on these after at this point, you know, what is it, 19 weeks, 20 weeks of watching football and seeing these games and seeing how the market is moving. Your first instinct on the number? I have found it much easier during the playoffs to bet with confidence on Sunday night than I was during the season. Because there's only so many games at this point in the season, you have a good sense of which way the market is going to move based on who won and the perception of that team going forward. And so this was an obvious one. I will give you one last stat because this one felt like it was a big enough sample size. The Commanders have won seven in a row. Fifteen teams have entered a conference championship game on a seven plus game straight up win streak since 2004. Four and eleven against the spread, failing to cover by four and a half points. So last week you talked about an outline on the Eagles at I think minus 10. That's how this might line up too, if we want to get a little funky and we're starting to feel really confident about the Eagles.
- [33:36]
Chad Millman
There's a lot, there's a lot of meat on that bone, for sure.
- [33:39]
Simon Hunter
Hey, as an Eagles fan, now that I can bask in the glory of having probably the best offensive mind in a generation and a guy like already getting fitted for super bowl rings, Nick Sirianni has clearly bought himself another year. And all this week because the media is so predictable. Glowing, glowing, glowing, glowing stories about Nick Sirianni and how he connects with his players and Nick Sirianni and how he has remained calm and comfortable throughout this entire hot seat process. How do you feel about Nick Sirianni continuing to be the coach of the Philadelphia Eagles?
- [34:21]
Chad Millman
I'm, I'm tough to get off my, my views of people. Like, once I have a view on you, you run me the wrong way. I'm kind of stuck in on it and I just, I'll never get there with him, unfortunately. Even, even if we get the super bowl, maybe that would be it. Maybe if we win it, I'll be like, okay, I, I do give this guy too much. But I'm still of the mindset of it's all Howie, baby. Like, Howie is just giving him the best possible car you can drive. And his whole job is just not to fuck this up. And that Rams game, Chad, I was about 20 seconds away from him being fired. Like, they scored that touchdown there at the end and we lose that game. I mean, unless he knows something about Jeffrey Lew, we don't know, you gotta fire him after that type of loss, you lose when you're up 13 with four minutes to go and you blow that, that would be on him. But yeah, I mean, I've seen all the stats. He has the most wins in NFL history in his first four seasons coaching. But I mean, we all, we all see what's happening here. It's like one of the best teams you can put onto the field. It's all built by Howie. And you know, I, I'll give him his roses, that he is a good team coach and he's kept these guys in this, this right mindset and we're a game away from the Super Bowl. Here. But yeah, I. I still like that game, that Rams game, Chad. That's why I just. It's hard for me with him sometimes because those games snowball and they keep showing him on the sideline with his dumb look on his face. I'm just like, he is. There's nothing happening right now in this guy. This guy is not. There's nothing he can do right now. This is totally out of his control. And yeah, it's. It's incredible what he's done. You know, he might go back to back Super Bowls in two years. It's. It's pretty impressive, obviously.
- [35:53]
Simon Hunter
It's like. By the way, you mentioned Dan Marino is like in your lifetime. Dude, Dan Marino is my lifetime. He's not your lifetime.
- [36:02]
Chad Millman
I drafted Dan Marino in fantasy football, so. Shut the fuck up, Chad. He's in my lifetime.
- [36:06]
Simon Hunter
When did you draft Dan Marino in fantasy football? He retired in like. When did you retire in like, 98.
- [36:12]
Chad Millman
98.
- [36:13]
Simon Hunter
Jesus Christ. You were three.
- [36:16]
Chad Millman
I appreciate that. A little older than that, but. No, I got him.
- [36:19]
Simon Hunter
Before we get to Bill's Chiefs, it has come to our attention. So we had a little fun before the season started. A huge percentage of our current favorites audience has never seen something. Something important. Very important, which we aired back on August 27th. Let's fix that right now. So Matt Mitchell played a very long con on me over the course of a full year. Enjoy. All right. Matt Mitchell pulled a long con on me all last football season with an ad read prank that took him months to execute. I'm gonna. I'm gonna bring in Matt Mitchell to explain the con that he pulled on me. And listen, kudos to him because he worked this and staged straight faced for months while I made a fool of myself.
- [37:15]
Chad Millman
Okay? And last but not least, Uncle Mitch.
- [37:18]
H
Chad, you and I have been working together now for a seventh NFL season. And like a lot of our talent, you're a real busy guy. You're busy being an executive, doing meetings and such. You know, a lot of our maniacs like Simon are busy with, you know, handicapping Sam Houston State or MLB stuff, plus rates or whatever. And like a lot of our talent, you're also made to do ad reads by me for our network. Unlike the rest of our talent, though, I learned that you will read absolutely anything I put in front of you, Ron Burgundy style, with almost no feedback. You'll just knock it out and you're on to the next thing, which is a gift, and I do appreciate that. Unfortunately, I did decide to take advantage of that and over basically a full calendar year. Anytime we had a real ad read to do, I would also write and make you read a second entirely phony and increasingly ludicrous ad read, which you would happily knock out with almost no feedback whatsoever. And once we'd gotten a lot of them, we cut them together into a montage that Simon has now seen for the first time because he skips all our company meetings. And I just want to say I'm really proud of you and we'll play it right now so everyone can have the context. Please enjoy Chad reading Entirely fabricated sponsorship.
- [38:39]
Simon Hunter
Reads Cold New England weather is finally here. And for sports bettors who like to stay up or sleep in Snuggle City Weighted blankets have the perfect item for those frosty evenings and early mornings ahead. Surround yourself in ultra soft faux fur lining of a Snuggle City weighted blanket. Say ay ay ay to flavor with YY Coolers, a refreshing new wine cooler from the Yin Yang Twins. That's right, the Grammy nominated hip hop legends have teamed up with some of California's finest vineyards to give football fans the ultimate game day beverage. Enter a world of elves, dragons and flying maidens with Baltic Battles, the allnew board game from Majesto Game. Say goodbye to scraping and messy grease cleanups forever with the Char Boy, the new no Clean grill from Weber. Come work at Dollywood Parks and Resorts at the gateway to the Great Smoky Mountains. Named one of America's best employers by Forbes Magazine, Dollywood Parks and Resorts needs people just like you to help us spread miles of smiles all summer long. Attention all Canadians. Celebrate the true north strong and free this Victoria Day. In the spirit of Queen Victoria herself, help our neediest Canadians with a donation to the Victoria Day Foundation. Even the humblest gift of a loonie or a toonie can make all the difference for Canadians from Halifax to Chilliwack as when those cinder blocks stay dry, we can all sigh with relief this summer. Come sail away with Captain Kincaid Seafood Express. Delight your taste buds and amaze your dinner guests with fresh caught seafood packed in Captain Kincaid's state of the art cooling chambers. It doesn't matter where you live, it doesn't matter what you want. If it comes from the sea's delicious bounty. Captain Kincaid Seafood Express has you covered. Deliciousness. Ahoy.
- [40:38]
H
Simon, what'd you think?
- [40:40]
Chad Millman
I loved it. As someone that's watching it, it's like, how does this guy not know that these things are fake?
- [40:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, listen, I'm a professional. If someone is paying us, I give it My all, it's true. I read it with enthusiasm. I respect Matt Mitchell's time. I respect Matt Mitchell as the producer of this show. If he says we gotta read, I say, great, I'm gonna go in. I'm gonna read it with gusto. The words, I don't know what they are. I am just reading them with gusto. Matt Mitchell, you disrespected my time and my talent. This might be the last show you ever do.
- [41:15]
H
Yeah, it would be worth it because I will say one Yin Yang twins, if you're listening, we'd love to get in business with you. You guys are the best. My wife loved that read the most. I'll also note that a couple of times when you'd stumble in them, you'd go like, oh, this is kind of a weird one. I'd want to totally crack up and lose it. So I would react to that by just shouting at you, because that was the. I need to react in a big way to cover that. I was laughing. So I'd be like, shut up, Chad. Just finish reading it. And you'd be like, okay, Jesus. All right, so, yeah, I almost lost it a couple times, but we. We stuck the landing. I'm proud of you, and I look forward to taking advantage of you in a similar way. When you're least suspecting it in the.
- [41:56]
Simon Hunter
Future, you're suspect Matt Mitchell, and I am on to you. I will be questioning everything from now on. All right, Simon, it's time for an ad read. A real ad read. Our producer, Matt Mitchell does look incredibly confident this week. Full of zeal, with a renewed lust for life. I think some of his hair may even be growing back, and I assumed it was because his Buffalo Bills are headed back to the AFC championship game. Upon closer inspection, I was mistaken. It's because he's decked out head to toe in the comfort of Tommy John. And with a special sale for our listeners, you too can enjoy the comfort Matt Simon and I experience from head to toe. Join the comfortable men and women who've left thousands of five star reviews raving about Tommy John as they enjoy maximum comfort. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?
- [42:57]
Chad Millman
Because comfort is king.
- [42:59]
Simon Hunter
Right now, you can shop TommyJohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at TommyJohn.com favorites. That's TommyJohn.com favorites Hey, it's Bobby Bones.
- [43:15]
Bobby Bones
Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones. And Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirror ball trophy from Dancing with a Star. So where else are you gonna find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but, like, all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like, it's all colored. They changed it and the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest. It was a little. Little pink.
- [43:57]
Chad Millman
There was something sentimental. When you. Like when. When you send it, it's like, do I send the heart now?
- [44:03]
Bobby Bones
I don't like the color edition.
- [44:04]
Chad Millman
It's extremely pink.
- [44:06]
Bobby Bones
Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [44:13]
Simon Hunter
Buffalo at Kansas City. This is the prime time game. Some would say it's the main event. Kansas City is a one and a half point favorite. @ least they were as we came on the air. I have not checked the number in the last, you know, 40 minutes. The total is 47 and a half. Before we get into it, I do want to say I love our watchers and our viewers and our listeners because the Saquon Barkley Russian prop that started at 127 and a half is now up to 129 and a half. So good for you guys for jumping on that so fast. Way to move the market. Here we go again. Simon, AFC title game. Patrick Mahomes, short favorite. We both loved it at one and a half on Sunday night.
- [44:59]
Chad Millman
Simon says, give me the Chiefs minus one and a half.
- [45:03]
Simon Hunter
Simon says, Chiefs minus one and a half.
- [45:11]
Chad Millman
This line's gonna go up to two. Two and a half by kick, in my opinion. I just. I do think the professionals will come in on this chief side. And it's. It really is a game where, you know, not to take anything from this way, from this bill season. It's been incredible. I think even Bills fans would tell you this was supposed to be, you know, win the division, maybe get in as a 4, 3 seed. Happy as hell to be at this spot. And obviously, when you're carrying whatever it is, 30 million, it could be a dead cap because of Stefan Diggs. It's a big deal. They have an aging defense. We, we've heard ad nauseam how they have a small undersized defense that can be run on. We know the deal. It's. It's Josh Allen. It's the magic of Josh Allen. So if you're someone that is betting him here, you're basically. That's all you can hang your hat on. You're just betting on the year of Josh Allen. And again, the reason I thought he was the mvp, him and Peyton Manning, the only All Pros ever to have no other All Pros on their team, like, that's an insane stat. This guy was an All Pro. I mean, we talked that. He didn't do it alone. Obviously, it's a full team. The offensive line cooks the running back like he has weapons, but it is all Josh Allen. Like that game against the Ravens, that was the new Josh Allen. The smart Josh Allen that doesn't make mistakes, shoot himself in the foot. Josh Allen. I mean, you know, I was waiting for it. I don't know about you, Chad. I was waiting for it in that game. Like, I was like, one's coming with Josh. He's going to throw one. He's going to be, he's going to get passed. He's going to be impatient because you could see in that second half, he was getting pissed off. He was like, why is McDermott not let me just run this offense right now? Why are we keep running into these seven front walls? And he didn't, he didn't do it. Like, I, I really tip my hat to him. Great teams aren't always great, they're just.
- [46:53]
Adnan Virk
Great when they have to be.
- [46:55]
Chad Millman
It's. That's my favorite part about this, is seeing the growth in different players. And it's like that was the next step for Josh was to get rid of the stupid turnover, especially in the red zone. And he's done that. So, yeah, setting into this game, no one's model should have the bills of favorite here. They should be an underdog in this spot. Like the Chiefs, they're a better team across the board. The number being below three is just a respect that the bookmakers and a lot of professionals have for Josh Allen and what he's done this season and the fear of Ben against them. Right. That's another part of this. But you know, when I dove into this game, the first thing I thought to myself, Chad, was I would handicap this totally different if this was an orchard park rather than it's an arrowhead. And that to me is the difference. I mean, Matt Mitchell knows The only games they've lost this year. What's the big common factor in all those games? It's on the road. Like, they were perfect at home this season, but on the road it was just a different story. You know, they lost the Ravens, we all remember that in September, 10 to 35. Then they lost to Houston again, we loved. Then they had that, you know, crazy game against the Rams that Josh Allen did everything he could. Still fell short, right. Because of this defense. They gave up 44 points. They lost 42 to 44. Insane win the next week against the Lions. Well, like, seriously, he was full on God Mode. They went 48 to 42. Like we're talking insane numbers here. And then obviously we don't really count it. They had lost the New England Patriots end of the season on the road. And you know, when I break it all down with this Bill's team, it's like it's all about what kind of Josh Allen's gonna show up here. Chad, like, I know betting the Chiefs here, we could get easily get burned if Josh has the ball last. I just can't see him losing it. Like, this is his year really is like, it's his moment. That's why I love all the conversation around Lamar getting too much shade for that game. It's like, well, if you would have got the two pointer, the game would have been tied. Yeah, Josh Allen had a minute 32 timeouts. Like that game was dead. It was over. And you know, when I look at this game here, it's the same type of view if. If Josh has the ball. And last, I do think I'll get burned here. But me and you talk Sunday night. I do think it's about the number here and one and a half. To me, that's great value. Like it's below the key number of two, which I talk all the time about. That Ravens game landed on two. We see it all the time now, though. It's. It's two has become such an important number. So that's why I made it. Simon says. Chad, I just. When I saw that you could still get one and a half right now at our sponsor, Beth365, it's like, tell the people, go get. I know depends on your book, what state you're in. You might already be stuck on the two, but I really hope you can find the one and a half. It's just such a key number.
- [49:24]
Simon Hunter
I'm actually, I'm shocked that it hadn't moved to two already because the Juice has been headed in that direction for at least 24 hours. So the fact it's still sitting at one and a half is a bit of a surprise. You beat me to the punch on the Simon says because I wanted to make this my exact decision.
- [49:40]
Chad Millman
A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders.
- [49:45]
Simon Hunter
Execute them.
- [49:46]
Chad Millman
Executive decision. Do it. I mean, there's like four games to pick up. Yeah. I mean there's only two games to pick from.
- [49:52]
Simon Hunter
I mean, what I would like to do, because the other thing I was going to do was grab the Chiefs on the money line at minus 125. Because that is still available.
- [50:05]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [50:05]
Simon Hunter
Still a relatively good price. I would like permission from you and from Matt Mitchell as the partners and arbiters of our rules that it's not a cop out to be taking Kansas City on the money line because I do have reasons to want to do it. And the number's so short that it's not like I'm taking a six point favorite.
- [50:26]
H
What the is happening here?
- [50:30]
Chad Millman
What the is happening here? Yeah, it's below minus 150. I'll definitely. Yeah. Matt Mitchell, loud.
- [50:38]
Simon Hunter
I'll allow it. It's not that I am taking my exact decision. And is KC on the money line? Here's a stat from Evan.
- [50:47]
Chad Millman
Yeah, give me some stats in home.
- [50:49]
Simon Hunter
Games in November or later when the temperature is 40 degrees or less. Mahomes is 23 and two straight up in his career. He's won 20 in a row. 20 in a row. Hasn't lost since losing to Tom Brady in 2019. So I know, like, okay, great regression jinx, whatever. Like it's Patrick Mahomes and Brady actually said something. He was on cowherd the other day. He said something that I thought was just crazy smart. Why is Patrick Mahomes so good in the playoffs? Because more often than not, especially at the end of the game, you've got to stop him for four downs. And it's so freaking hard to stop Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes four straight downs from moving the ball and getting the first down that they need. It just is. And so as much as you are saying Josh Allen gets the ball at the end, Patrick Mahomes gets the ball at the end.
- [51:48]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [51:48]
Simon Hunter
And I also think if Patrick Mahomes has a lead and he has the ball with four minutes left, they win that game. They don't give the ball up. And I don't think the Bills can stop them. So that's why I like the Chiefs. I'm really excited about our futures conversation because right now the Eagles have the shortest odds and the Chiefs have the second shortest odds. And so when we are talking about this on Thursday, I'm excited to get into this a little bit more deeply. I do have concerns. I have big, big concerns about the Chiefs. Would you like to hear some of them?
- [52:30]
Chad Millman
I love to hear some.
- [52:32]
Simon Hunter
All right. So the Chiefs running game not nearly explosive as the Ravens and that's how the Chiefs got themselves or the Ravens got themselves back into the game against the Bills. Because I do think that rush defense was a little bit exploitable. Concern or not concern for you?
- [52:55]
Chad Millman
Not concerned.
- [52:56]
Simon Hunter
How come?
- [52:58]
Chad Millman
I think Houston is like a legit like top five defense, especially against the run. The Bills are bottom of the barrel. They're just, they're undersized. This is an undersized team and I think Matt Milano might miss this game as well. If you go back and watch that Ravens game, Chad, he was, he was the difference. Yeah, he was big time. And he basically didn't play the final three snaps of that game because of an injury. So you know, McDermott's been shut mouth about it but just reading between the lines, it seems like he is going to miss that switch. To me, the defense that can't afford to lose someone is pointing him and against the Chiefs team like this, it's going to be deadly for matchups for.
- [53:35]
Simon Hunter
Offensively also might be missing rap in the secondary and they might be down two actually two defensive backs, two starters. So. Okay, thank you for that. Here was a great, you know this, this conversation about Patrick Mahomes and the flopping and the penalties and we talked about it like I love grouchy Troy Aikman. He's become my favorite announcer. I think his attitude and approach and honesty with everything. He's just entered the fucking. I'm a Hall of Famer and I'm Troy Aikman making 18 million a year. I don't give a shit what I say anymore.
- [54:10]
Chad Millman
He's no Tony Konoheiser, but he's good.
- [54:12]
Simon Hunter
He's. He's great though. He's great. So I, at first I was like, are the refs going to be cautious calling penalties on Mahomes given the blowback this weekend? Will they get a call from the league office? Do you have any concerns about that? And then I have something I heard from on the Ryan Rosilla pod, which blew me away.
- [54:30]
Chad Millman
No, because even if you go, you don't watch it. Like the thing I love about Troy getting so mad about was that that is when he slid in the middle of the field and the two defenders hit above his head. And they flagged it, right? Unnecessary roughness. They flagged it because if those two dudes collide and meet at momes his head, the three peat is over. That dude is concussed, dead on the field. That's why they threw that flag. Like, they don't want it to be ended because of a dirty hit or an injury. They want it to be ended because they lose a game. That was the whole reason the refs were throwing those flags, to protect the guy. It's like, that's why I love Troy Aikman. Losing a shit about it. It's like, Troy, you probably could have played for five more years if they would protect you the same way, dude. Like, yeah, it's just. You sound like, again, I know you love me. You sound like a. Just a bitter old man that's just tired of how soft the league has gotten. But it's like, we need this league to be soft. We all have gone through seasons of backups. It is the worst ever, watching just terrible quarterback play in this league. So that's why they need to protect guys, especially a guy like Mahomes. So yeah, that, that was, you know, the flop, I think was what really pissed him off, which everyone online got pissed off about. But that wasn't even flagged. So again, people think that chief's got all these flags. When you probably break it down, it's probably closer to 50, 50 than people realize. But I guess, you know, as fans, we just get pissed off about this stuff. So, yeah, it's. It's low hanging fruit. I'm with them though. It pisses me off too, watching Mahomes get all these flags on Keith third downs.
- [55:52]
Simon Hunter
For the record, Troy Aikman's always been grumpy. I remember. You know, I've been a reporter for a long time.
- [55:57]
Chad Millman
You have?
- [55:58]
Simon Hunter
With Sports Illustrated. I went down to SI in 1990 to Dallas in 1994. We did an entire week with the Cowboys. We had full access. We did an entire issue of Sports Illustrated about the week with the Cowboys. Me and Rick Tellender was the senior writer who was writing 30 Years of.
- [56:15]
Chad Millman
The Cowboys favorite time period.
- [56:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it was great, right? And it was like the early 90s and you knew exactly where to hang out, what clubs they were at. Like you'd go hang out. Oh my God, it was amazing, right? But I remember sitting with Aikman in the locker room and this was when the NFL was changing a Lot of the balls and sort of making quarterbacks use different balls. And he was in the locker room testing out a bag of balls and just so he's like this fucking league they keep trying to fucking like he was just so angry about having to use different balls. Like he clearly just is. Can be a grouchy guy, which I've come to appreciate, which is insane.
- [56:54]
Chad Millman
Imagine, Imagine being that good looking, having the career he's had and then being grouchy will never make sense.
- [57:00]
Simon Hunter
I fucking love it. Rosillo had a great stat. Here's a trivia for you. The past two years, Kansas City opponents have been flagged for 48 pounds penalties in the fourth quarter in OT have won score games. How many have the Chiefs had in the same time period in the same circumstances?
- [57:17]
Chad Millman
Like I said, I bet you it's 50. 50.
- [57:20]
Simon Hunter
It is 47.
- [57:22]
Chad Millman
Yeah, right, right, right near it. So yeah, that's, that's what I mean. We're just, we're stupid fans. I mean, let's be serious here. Let's. That's how we are. We, we see, we see that they get the calls because it's in these big moments, but it's because the Chiefs are always playing in these big games. And you know, it's been making the rounds today or yesterday. That Chris Jones flag against Tom Brady, you know that that was the last time, like you just said, the last time he lost this game. It was that game on a fourth down.
- [57:48]
Simon Hunter
That's right.
- [57:48]
Chad Millman
Brady gets an insane call, goes down, ties the game or wins the game in overtime. It's like, you know, they give the breaks to the guys. That's just how it is. He's always gonna get the calls. Cause it's Mahomes. But you just broke it down. It's not as egregious as we make it out to be, but you know, that's. We talk all the time. The refs dictate a lot of these games. Even that, that Bills game, that ghost holding call. So Lamar has that pick. The Bills get the ball. Joshua has a perfect pass. It should be third and three. They called a ridiculous holding penalty against the Bills. It wasn't even a hole. He just smacked the guy's arms down. Yeah. So Instead of being second and three, it backed him up to wherever it was. Second and 19. And then they went three. And now they pun it. So now I had to hear everyone today say, well, that pick didn't even hurt Lamar. And it's like, yeah, because the refs made that call. So that's what I mean. We talk all the time like you're going to get your bad calls every game. And like most fans, I just, I hate the, I hate the Chiefs. So no matter what, I'm going to bitch about the flag. So that's just how it is.
- [58:44]
Simon Hunter
The Bills rush defense. Rush offense is insanely good right now. The best rush defense by success rate in the NFL this past year was the Broncos. They allowed successful rushes 33.6% of the time. In the wild card game, the bills had a 50% success rate, the best against the Broncos all season. The next week, the second best rush defense by success rate was the Ravens. The Bills ran all over the Ravens 55.6% success rate. Should I be concerned about the Bills dominating on the ground against the Kansas City Chiefs?
- [59:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I mean, they, they, they obviously are gonna have a good run game, but it comes back to Spags. We, we trust Bags, don't we? I mean, he's been good to us. So, yeah, like you said, there's gonna be numbers that are gonna point to this Bill's team. But just overall, I just, I, I can't get there because of the number, brother. That's. That. To me, the same thing with the Bills last week. I told you, it was like it's all about the number here. If I was getting Lamar anything greater than plus two autoplay, that came out to be the right idea. Same thing here. It's like if you get Josh on a plus three, I'm happy to take a position on him, but anything below that, I just think what we just talked about, it's an overvalued team and I don't want to get too sucked into the weeds with the numbers because I, we talked about it last year, like, yeah, the Chiefs, they do this to us. Like they have the 22nd ranked offense, whatever the hell it is, and none of it makes sense. We know people, we're living it. Like, that's, that's the toughest part here where coming into this one, I'm trying to find an angle to take Josh Allen because I loved last week, I've loved this whole season with him, and I want him to break down the curse. Like, we know the history here. He's owing three against Mahomes. And you know, another funny part, another meme I love that's going around is poor Josh Allen, Bills fan. Even if they win this game, they got to face an NFC east team in the super bowl no matter what so he could slay a bunch of demons. And Dragons for this organization. He could get through, get over the hump, get through Mahomes and Arrowhead and then take on an NFC east team to take them down as well. So I, I get the love and why Again, another thing in the media, everyone's talking Bill super bowl, everyone's picking them now. Everyone's all in because we're all sick of this Chief's team and Mahomes magic. But we know we're getting great value here. How can we not Take this number? 1 1/2 is just so insane to me that we're actually still getting this number. Like you just said, I thought we'd come in today and BE2 and I was gonna have to scramble and find, as Simon says. That's why I try to jump ahead of you and grab it because I was like when you did say anything in the Eagles game, like, Chad, Chad might be on the Chiefs here, but we agree this is just, it's too good of a number to pass on right now. There's so much value on this number at this point. So, yeah, it's, it's tough because the heart, the heart wants the Bills. I think any fan with a soul wants the Bills and that fan base to get to the super bowl and win it. But it's just a bad spot. And this just doesn't feel like the right team. With Josh Allen, like, eventually I feel like he will get over the hump. I can't see it here. Like, he just doesn't to me, doesn't have the dogs around him. But like you said, it's all laid out there. If they can run the ball, no turnovers with him. He has the ball last. Like you said. Whoever has the ball last controls that clock, Chad, that's who's going to win it. We know that bet in this game. That's why it is a coin flip game. And to me, that's why you need to take the value on the Chiefs. The coin flip game, the value is on this team right now because it's under the two number of keys. So under the key number of two. If, if you're just being patient, you want to bet the Bills. I saw late night a bunch of two twos and a halfs popping especially offshore. I think I'll get there by game time because I do think Chief's money will come in eventually. As this week goes along here as.
- [62:26]
Simon Hunter
Part of my training, I have no soul. So I don't, I don't care if Josh Allen slays his demons. And I Love Matt Mitchell today.
- [62:40]
Chad Millman
Sounds like it.
- [62:41]
Simon Hunter
And like his happiness is so important to me. And his happiness during our entire relationship going back to when he was just a guy who listened to behind the Bets and emailed me when I was at espn. Nothing has meant more to me outside of my family than his happiness and growth in his career. But I don't care if Josh Allen's lays his demons. I think he's a lovely guy. I want the Chiefs. I want history. I want a three peat. I want dominance. I want things that have never been done before. That's what I'm rooting for.
- [63:18]
Chad Millman
I am. I gotta say I'm a little ashamed of you.
- [63:21]
Jason Demers
I'd just like to ask you something.
- [63:24]
Chad Millman
How much is enough?
- [63:25]
H
Hey, sorry, this is Matt, the producer. I'm just interjecting after the fact. The show's over. I'm just re listening to this and I heard that line from Chad. He wants to root for something that's never happened. He's rooting for history. And that is why he's choosing against the Buffalo Bills and for the Kansas City Chiefs to make the Super Bowl. Feels like a totally incoherent point of view and one of the most asinine arguments for batting or rooting for the Kansas City Chiefs here. Win or lose, Bills probably lose. Inconsequential to me in this regard. But I'm sorry that you guys heard that. Instead of cutting it, I'll just let this rebuttal speak for itself.
- [64:10]
Simon Hunter
I like to root for teams to be historic and I think the Chiefs can be historic. And I actually get to like rooting for them too. Better coach, Much better defensive coordinator. I've got the best quarterback in a generation, the best tight end in a generation against the middle of the Bills D. That can't stop anybody. Even when Matt Milano was playing give.
- [64:36]
Chad Millman
Me the Chiefs, I didn't want to do too much. The numbers we were running up against the time but that's something we didn't.
- [64:42]
Simon Hunter
Get to get more on Thursday.
- [64:44]
Chad Millman
But just the numbers against tight ends like you saw Isaiah, like you, Mark Andrews, it felt like they were always open when Lamar could find them. And you think, we really think it's going to change here against, you know, arguably the greatest tight end that's ever played football and Kelsey. So there are a lot of matchups that do favor this Chiefs team but you kind of nailed it how the Bills can't pull off this upset. It really is all about that run game ball control and Josh Allen and you know, we know mom is going to get his. We also know they're going to sputter. Like you said, they've been inconsistent offensively all season, running the ball and a lot of things. So there are ways for the Bills to do it. But but I am happy we're both in agreeance here because it was no fun last week going against you and then having to bully you Sunday night for your love for Lamar. So I'm happy we're both in love with this number on this Chiefs team.
- [65:27]
Simon Hunter
And minus one and a half likely in Andrews. By the way, Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews against the bills combined for nine catches, 139 yards and one touchdown and Mark Andrews was wide open for a game tie in two point conversion and you and I are in such a mind meld that I already had that stat. Love it, researched it yesterday. All right, we're going to dig in more on both these games on Thursday. Plus we're going to reveal the Futures matchups bet that Simon and I both made before the season began, separate from each other that we talked about on the show that is still in play. And so we're going to talk about some hedging strategies and we will also talk about the super bowl futures we like with the four remaining teams heading into Conference Championship Weekend on Thursday. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10, place a bet for $5. Get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary at bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on The Action Network YouTube page 11:00am Eastern Thursday talk our conference championship Best Bets in addition to Simon says an exact Decision. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate Review, Subscribe Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [67:35]
Adnan Virk
What's up everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast it's NHL Unscripted with.
- [67:39]
Jason Demers
Verkin Demers, Jason Demers here, And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [67:46]
Adnan Virk
I got a lot to say here too. Okay, Each week we'll get together chat about the sport that we love.
- [67:50]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies. We're talking TV, food and EdNat space favorite wrestling. It's all on le table.
- [67:59]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virgin Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [68:07]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirror ball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get.
- [68:37]
Tisha Allen
Your podcasts, you are cordially invited to the hottest party in professional sports. I'm Tisha Allen, former golf professional and the host of welcome to the Party, your newest obsession about the wonderful world that is women's Go. Featuring interviews with top players on tour, tips to help improve your swing, and the craziest stories to come out of your friendly neighborhood country club. Welcome to the Party with Tisha Allen is an iHeart Women's fourth production in partnership with Deep Blue Sports and Entertainment. Listen to welcome to the Party that's P A R T E e on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [69:20]
AJ Stephens
$1.4 billion in NFL quarterback contracts the untold stories behind the biggest deals in football history. I'm AJ Stephens, Vice president of Client strategy at Athletes first, introducing the Athletes First Family podcast, the Quarterback Series. My co host Brian Murphy, Athletes first CEO and I are sitting down with the agents who have negotiated contracts for Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Tua Tongavailoa and Jordan Love. Listen to Athletes First Family Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.