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- [00:00]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [00:05]
Jason Demers
Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [00:11]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
- [00:15]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le table.
- [00:25]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:33]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Cassell every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with a Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and. And a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:12]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday divisional round episode. We will break down the lines for the best weekend of the NFL season. We will also discuss our exec decision and our assignment says do not fret. Thursday we will have the usual menu, foxhole, big balls, all that good stuff. We will also get into some totals, other bets we like both today and. And on Thursday, expand a little bit since we've only got four games. Live from our Tommy John home studios, I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [02:03]
Simon Hunter
Hello, Chad. Yeah, we look, we're looking this week to have a little bit of a bounce back, right? Three on, three on sides and, you know, totals five and one to the under, which was great, but so we know people come here for our sides. Pixel. Yeah, hopefully we go above.500 this week.
- [02:18]
Chad Millman
Yeah, well, look, we were on the Rams yesterday as we were on the Bucks on Sunday night and I, I'm not kidding, Matthew Stafford, when it looked like he had fumbled the ball when they were up 103 and had been dominating. And the Eagle and the, the Vikings ran it back. Yeah, I immediately flashed back to Baker the night before. All star quarterback random fluke fumble in a game that they were dominating or starting to dominate. I'm like are you fucking kidding me? This is happening two nights in a row. Did you, did you feel that way?
- [02:58]
Simon Hunter
A little bit. But it's also about this is why playoffs are the best. Right. It's this game of chess and you're just if your opponent makes this little mistake that dictates the whole game. Right. And that's, that's what you're talking about there with Baker. So the Stafford play, I was never worried about it. But it also makes me just hate the quarterback position. It's just like that. Even Belichick I don't know if you saw in the Maniacast, he's just disgusted by it and he's just like only in the NFL would that be allowed to get away with that. Right? Just a little shuffle pass flick of the wrist at your receivers ankles basically. And yeah, I, I feel like we definitely got away with one on that play. But I think once you watch that whole game, we were never going to not call cover that game. I mean even if it was 10:10 at that point, I still think long term the Rams would have won that game. We just, that game really did well. We talk about the time comes down to quarterbacks and Sam Darnold back to back worst games of the season form. So pretty brutal stretch for Sam Darnold.
- [03:52]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I saw that Stafford play in, in replay and I thought to myself that's why we like to bet Matthew Stafford. The guy knew where his receiver was going to be and without even seeing it did the veteran savvy move of backhanded flick of the wrist got away with it. Exactly why we like Matthew Stafford.
- [04:16]
Simon Hunter
I get why people get upset because you could, you definitely saw the ball moving and becoming loose when he flicked it again like you just said, super veteran play. Like he had enough on his fingertips to move it. But you definitely saw the ball leaving the palm of his hand when he got hit and it was moving. It was just like, like you just said thank God for a veteran quarterback because that is a guy who's been in the league a long time and his savvy vet.
- [04:37]
Chad Millman
There's one other thing I want to ask you about before we get into the games. So good news. Mike Vrabel is back. We lost Doug Peterson last week. We get Mike Vrabel back.
- [04:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [04:45]
Chad Millman
Week. We love Ben Frable along with Tomlin, one of the best coaches to bet of the past 20 years. Whether it's straight up as a dog or as a dog. He always had the Titans coming through for us. Now he's got a talented young qb, a lockdown corner along with the Panthers. I cannot wait to start betting the Patriots year. But in reality, off the top of your head, as we inch closer to off season, when we're starting to project these things, how much of a difference do you think it will make with Vrabel as a coach who has historically covered. When you start evaluating the Patriots in the off season, you definitely are going.
- [05:27]
Simon Hunter
To give them a, a one and one and a half to two wins bump just because of variable and now you'll see what their offseason moves are, what their schedule is like, how people have them power rated, vice versa, power ratings. And yeah, my initial thought was just, yeah, if they have hit on the quarterback position, they could become a juggernaut in what, a year or two. Like if they can draft right. We've seen it. If you, if you hit on the quarterback, it shifts the whole confidence of the whole, you know, the whole organization. It's, it really is life changing. Then if you bring in the right coach, it's even more so. Right. That's, that's the key. And we've seen that this season where, you know, not that I had major questions about Dan Quinn, but I did and he came in, he apparently adjusted. He became more of a team player coach, more of a players guy guy. And you know, Jane Daniels obviously change organization, Bo Nicks, Sean Payton, change that Denver organization. So yeah, I, I saw some crazy stat. It was basically Jaden Daniels was born in 2000. That was the last time the Miami Dolphins won a playoff game. So it just shows how it can just be hell if you don't have the right coach, the right quarterback in your organization. And if you do hit on it, it changes everything in just a year. So that's what's so cool about the NFL. The quarterback position is just such a special position.
- [06:39]
Chad Millman
Well, that's a great transition to my next question for you, which is on Sunday afternoon, my son was telling me about a bunch of different social handles that are playing this game where they're predicting which coaches are going to land where in the NFL. Every single one of them had the Bears getting Cliff Kingsbury. And this was, this was before the McCarthy news. And then this morning I read on ESPN.com Dan Graziano was predicting based on the people he's spoken to, which coaches were going to land where, and he had Brian Flores going to the Bears. So if you're me, do you prefer cliff Kingsbury, Mike McCarthy, or Brian Flores? Do we prefer falling off the cliff in November? Do we prefer not winning in the playoffs? Do we prefer a coach who is already potentially or could have ruined a franchise quarterback?
- [07:46]
Simon Hunter
I would only go, Cliff is because you just want the offensive guy. When you have the quarterback, like, you do, like the. The defensive mentality, even if you bring in the right coordinator, like a Ben Johnson, it's not. He's not going to be there for a long haul. He'll eventually leave for the next, better opportunity, the offensive coordinator. So to me, you want to get the offensive mind, the quarterback that you guys have. And that. That makes me so sad to hear, like, again, we like and respect Brian Flores. I don't know if you saw Ryan Fitzpatrick talking about him. It's like, yeah, this man has disdained disgust for this guy years and years later. And, you know, he was the one that was treated well by Brian Flores. He wasn't even the TUA in the relationship. So, yeah, it's. Ah, man, I feel bad for you, Chad. It's just tough being a Bears fan. And I mean, this sounds crazy to say, but, yeah, my mentality of it would be. I would hope they would just go offensive. And I get why people love Brian Flores. What he's done with that Vikings defense has been incredible, but, you know, I just. I can't see that working well. Especially the personalities of him being the old school guy where Caleb is the definition of new wave Gen Z. Right. Like, I just. Yeah, I. I can't see that working well. So, yeah, for you, I know it's painful because we just don't trust the guy at all, but Kingsbury, I guess, would be the best fit.
- [08:57]
Chad Millman
It's been an interesting experience going through this with my son. It's like the first time he's feeling invested in who the Bears hire as a coach.
- [09:06]
Simon Hunter
Welcome to hell, brother.
- [09:08]
Chad Millman
Right. Because. Yeah, because the Bears have Caleb, and so it feels like we have an opportunity. And, you know, the last time we hired a coach, Eva flu is like, we didn't really have high expectations. And so he's feeling it and. And he's texting me when he should be paying attention to whatever class he's in about the latest thing he's hearing about the Bears coaching search. And I just keep saying to him, imagine the worst possible resolution and then make it worse if there is a coach out there who's not on the radar. The Bears can hire. They can hire my high school football coach. Not my coach, but the guy who coached my high school football team. They'll to make it look like it's the exact right decision when we all know it's not. So I'm just trying to tempering his expectations and even last night he we were talking about it, I'm like, I just don't think you get it. I don't think you get how painful and horrible this is going to be.
- [10:10]
Simon Hunter
I'm sorry for you and your division. Right. Like you're coming into a vision with Dan Campbell, LaFleur and Koc. And it's like, man, you, you really do need to hit on someone here because it is you guys are lagging in that category by a mile.
- [10:24]
Chad Millman
The things we do to our children. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. About365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or 1, 800 bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. 4 games to get through 4 sides, 4 totals. Anything else that comes up the best football weekend during the NFL season. We love the divisional playoffs. Houston at Kansas City first game on the board Saturday afternoon. Kansas city is an eight point favorite at that 365. The total was 41 one and a half.
- [11:30]
Bobby Bones
Bigger than the mountains, taller than Dr. At my home Take me home to the place we belong Kansas City the.
- [11:49]
Chad Millman
Line has moved within a very specific narrow band. It opened at seven and a half, gap it up to eight and a half, down to eight seven and a half in a lot of spots. The elephant in the room, Mahomes is a favorite of more than three. Being a historically bad bet versus the combo of home teams and favorites this season and during the wild card being the right side, these teams did play each other about three weeks ago. They played on the 21st of December. The line was three and a half. Simon, I'm going to dig deeper into what we did in that game, but if you're looking at this and it's eight, it's seven and a half. A difference of four points from the last time they played at home for Kansas City. What do you see here?
- [12:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, and this is honestly because it is the playoffs to me, Chad, that the books will adjust this way because we know it's just different. And it's same thing with my model. My model has this as great value on Houston. Right. And it's just because it simply doesn't understand the Mahomes factor. We talked about that last year. I had the 49ers as favorites in the super bowl, but I still bet the Chiefs. I had the Eagles, unfortunately, as the favor in the super bowl. And I went against it and I learned that lesson pretty hard that day. It's just like these models is like the Tom Brady effect. They just can't compute Mahomes and what that just does to the guys on the other sideline. Right. We always talk about that. The guys on the other sideline looking across at Mahomes, especially in the playoffs, it's different. You know that that killer is across the field and he's coming for you. So yeah, in a normal regular season, Chad, we would be hammering the Texans here. It's CJ as a huge dog against Mahomes who plays with his food. But that changes in the playoffs. So we talked about it a little bit on Sunday night. If you do want to take a position on Houston, I'm not doing it. But I'm saying if you do. Chad gave it out. I believe it was five and a half. 6. First half on the Houston number. Take it. Houston. I think they're what, Evan, are they 14 and 3 or 15 and 2 this season? First half against the spread. Incredible. They've been incredible and we've seen the Chiefs do come out slow. I personally just can't do it. Like I'm even thinking about it right now. I'm getting visions of them in arrowhead. It's 25 degrees and it's just Mahomes first drive. Touchdown. 14:4 against the first half. So Houston has just been incredible at first half. And yeah, this is an interesting number in the fact that you've seen a lot of these numbers get bumped up because it is what the sportsbooks need to do. They need to protect against the Moneyline parlays and the teasers. And when this number opened seven and a half, that to me was right. Like I said, my model is this at 7. So it's like, okay, it's up a half a Point for people doing the seven point teasers, doing the six point teasers. Right. That's they're still getting the key number now that it is up to eight and a half. You know, that's, that's crossed a bunch of key numbers at this point. This is now if you do tease it, this is at two and a half which is still value but it's also reason I could still see this keep going up. I could still see the books keep moving. This just because the pros that are going to bet Houston, I don't know why they had rushed to bet it. It's the same thing we're going to talk about this week. Like if you like the dogs, you kind of can be patient at this point because the numbers have basically moved to where they're going to be at at this point. Like they might keep going up because of public money and some professional man. They do like the favorites. But yeah, this, this spot for me, like it's crazy. Look back on last week. I should have went 60 on those unders. The only under I didn't hit was that fluke Houston Chargers game which was like the stupidest over. Like it really killed me too. Cause I was the start of the week and it was just like, oh God, if I made a huge mistake. Bend these unders. If we got such bullshit like that. No, it's, you gotta trust the numbers. And right here most people are going to know if they break it down. It's. If you look at these totals and especially this game, this is going to be the lowest total of the week. Right. I think it's already down to 42 at a lot of books. That's because we saw last week Houston has great pass rush. We know that the Chiefs have struggles on the offensive line. On the flip side, it spags in the playoffs. It spags at home in the playoffs. Like they just, the Chiefs dominate. Unless it's Josh Allen, they dominate teams at home in this exact spot defensively. So yeah, if you're looking for my early size right now on Tuesday, like the Chiefs at this number, I'd bet it up to 9, 10. Once it gets to 10, that's when I stop. But at this number, I still feel confident my homes just closing out. This Houston team that, you know they got away with one last week and I, I, I do get people's view on this taking, taking CJ in this exact spot. I can't, can't say a bad word about it because it is the professional sharp side. But to Me, it's like, at what point does the number make sense? A 9 and a half, 10? I can be talked into Houston at that point, but at nine and below, I think the value is still on this Chiefs team.
- [16:34]
Chad Millman
So when they played on the 21st and the line was three and a half, to me, that was about. Up to that point, the Chiefs had been winning games by 1 2.3 points. They'd also been playing sort of with. With, you know, one arm tied behind their back in terms of the weapons. Right. They were missing Jaylen Watson on defense at cornerback. And we talked about this on the show a bunch. When Spags runs his offense or his defense, he really needs to have great coverage in the secondary. Well, it's possible Jaylen Watson is coming back this week. They were playing obviously all season without Hollywood Brown. They played most of the season and we're just getting DeAndre Hopkins into rhythm. In the latter half of the year, Isaiah Pacheco, that was one of his first games.
- [17:33]
Simon Hunter
That's me. Was one of the biggest things.
- [17:35]
Chad Millman
Again, Pacheco, that was one of his first games back. Right. So in the latter half of the year, forget about the Broncos game. In the three games before the Broncos game, when they sat everybody, they were favorites on the road against the Browns. Normally you'd automatically want to fade the Chiefs in that spot. They won 21 to 7. The next week, they're three and a half point favorites at home against the Texans. Again, historically, you want to fade Patrick Mahomes as more than a three point favorite. And they're going against a good defense and a good quarterback who struggled, but still a good quarterback. They win by 17 points. The next weekend, they're on the road again, two point favorites against the Steelers. It's a spot you want to smash Mike Tomlin at home. Rah, rah. They cover with ease. So at some point, and we bet, by the way, we did bet, I went back and looked. We bet the Chiefs against the Texans when they were three and a half point favorites because we were starting to feel like this was a team that was coming into its own and through the hard phase and realizing how they were going to play once they got to the playoffs. I'm glad you're saying the Chiefs because I wanted to bet the Chiefs and like, I needed a little bit of.
- [18:54]
Simon Hunter
Reassurance another way I wanted to bet Houston. Honestly, coming into it and I was like trying to find reasons, even looking for trends. I'll have to wait and see if Evans finds any better ones about why you should back Houston. But my biggest one was just, man, this, this feels like you're getting free points here because of these teasers and these parlays. But we talk all the time like there's certain, certain numbers that do make sense and when you really dive into the numbers that back it up. And it's like, man, that Houston team, they definitely got away with one last week. And that like we're, that's gonna be a theme this week about certain teams that are a little inflated, overrated from their previous week. And it feels like that might be here with Houston because I thought this would just be all Chiefs money. And you know, we've had two days now and I've talked to a bunch of different bookmakers, not just here in Jersey, a couple guys in pa and it's plenty of Houston money at this point. So I, I think the public is still in the perspective of this Chiefs team is not this juggernaut one seed Rama the other way. I'm like, this is one of the best runs we've ever seen with the best organizations. And they just always get better as the season goes along. And you just laid it out for people. Like you saw a turn as they've gotten back. These guys on offense have gotten healthy that they can if they want to run up the score on these teams and, and we've seen the playoffs. They don't take their foot off the gas like Andy Reid leans into and tries to dominate these teams, especially at home.
- [20:11]
Chad Millman
It feels weird to say people are sleeping on them. A 15 win, two time defending champ, number one seed. But all of the attention is on Buffalo and Baltimore. And the one thing I think about with this defense that the Texans have and everyone gets excited about Daniel Hunter and, and Will Anderson and how many sacks they had against the Chiefs and against the Chargers and what they did during the year. And I just think to myself, Patrick Mahomes is so hard to sack. They've had a bad left tackle the entire season and they figured out how to manage it, including the last few weeks when they just moved Joe Tunney out there. Patrick Mahomes on third down knows exactly when to run. He is so frustrating to try to defend. I think he breaks your spirit. I really do. It's a big number. I'm not afraid of it. It's not. Assignment says it's not an exact decision, but we're leaning the Chiefs here. And it seems to me you mentioned the under. It's 41 and a half.
- [21:20]
Simon Hunter
I mean in Jersey there's Beth365 is 42, but if you shop around, there is. There is a 42 and a half out there at a very public book. But yeah, so that's literally come down while we've done the show. Like, before we hopped on. There's a bunch of 42 and a half. 42 out there now. You're right. It's. It's moving people. It's moving down to 41 and a half at a lot of books.
- [21:37]
Chad Millman
But do we like the under?
- [21:39]
Simon Hunter
I like it, but it's starting to move through key numbers at this point. Like, it's. The edge is, like, incredibly small now, and I literally have this game at 41. So, like. Yeah. Do I like it at 41 and a half? Sure. But, yeah, we're losing a little bit of value there with the. The big money coming in. Moving this number down.
- [21:54]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL unscripted with Vir and Demers.
- [22:02]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst. And boy, oh, boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [22:11]
Adnan Virk
I love you, by the way, on NHL Network. We're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things to running it that we love. Love. Right?
- [22:19]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture and you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [22:30]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We had all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear in NHL.
- [22:39]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Ferky.
- [22:42]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burke and demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [22:56]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Stars. So where else you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but like all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like it's all colored. They changed it and the, the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm going to be honest, it was a little pink.
- [23:39]
Simon Hunter
Pink. There was something sentimental when you like when, when you send it, you like, do I send the heart now?
- [23:45]
Bobby Bones
I don't like the color edition.
- [23:46]
Simon Hunter
It's extremely pink.
- [23:48]
Bobby Bones
Listen to lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [23:55]
Chad Millman
Washington at Detroit. Detroit is a nine and a half point favorite. The total is 55 and a half. This is the primetime game on Saturday night.
- [24:07]
Simon Hunter
There's so many, many reasons. Anytime any season.
- [24:17]
Chad Millman
Is the right time.
- [24:22]
Simon Hunter
To be with you. Hello, Detroit. You've won my heart.
- [24:33]
Chad Millman
My first instinct on this. Holy moly. This is a huge number.
- [24:39]
Simon Hunter
Yes. Simon says, give me Washington plus nine and a half. Chad, this is an insane number. What is this number? Is this, is this us overreacting too much to last week and Daniels? I don't think it is. All the praise he's getting. Evan had this amazing tweet that went viral. Zero puns, zero turnovers on the road. Only him and Peyton Manning have ever done that in the playoffs. So, yeah, we're, like we said, we're, we're seeing something special here. But me and you talked about a little bit. That was Baker's game that he blew. Like, yeah, his defense, Tampa did make stops on fourth down. Right. And we talked about the regression that was coming for Washington. It showed up. They did have the regression on the fourth down and they got the stops. And you know, there was a bunch of different times that Baker could have taken a lead by four points. Right? They had that four point lead. He fumbles.
- [25:28]
Chad Millman
They should have won this game by double digits. Like, honest to God, as well as Jaden played, he ran, he threw, he converted. At least outside of the red zone. Yeah, but it was 1713. The Bucks had just stopped the commanders in the red zone on fourth down from the goal line. And they were starting to dominate that game. Bucky Irving was starting to dominate that game. Baker was finding Mike Evans whenever he wanted. Mike Evans to the point where they had to take Marshawn Latimore off of Mike Evans to start double teaming him. They were going to go up 24:13. When they got the ball back and Baker fumbled. Like the defense mainly looked good for the commanders because the Commander's offense engineered so many long freaking drives. The time of possession was 11 minutes in Washington's favor and they had 25 more plays. If you dig into the stats on this game, Baker was 15 of 18 with a yards per attempt of nine and a half. Like, what worries me about this is what is Jared Goff going to do to this defense?
- [26:43]
Simon Hunter
I mean, he might do well. Honestly, though, the fear for me is the running game of. That's why I think this number makes sense when it's moved so high above 7 again. Once again protecting against teasers and everything like that. This is going to be on in everyone's parlay. Why would. Like Chad just is breaking it down to why would Detroit lose this game? Right. They are arguably the best running team of football going against a Commander's team that. I mean, we know the deal. They can't stop the run. Like you said, they did really well early on stopping Bucky. But once the game gets into the second half and they're worn out that front line, you can run the ball in Washington now, you know, we're in a different stratosphere at this point, especially if, you know, Montgomery's back.
- [27:21]
Chad Millman
I mean, Montgomery is supposed to be back.
- [27:23]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, yeah. It's the ultimate combo. So that's why I understand the move. But to me, it's really all about the fourth downs. And that's what I'm banking on here, betting this summer where it's. This game is basically going to come down to both sides and what they can do on fourth downs. And you know Jaden Daniels. I don't. There's no one on Detroit's front seven that can stay with him and stop him. Like, they don't have that X factor that can slow him down and kind of change the game with what we've seen Jay Daniels do, which is he's so cool. Comic collective. You know exactly when to run, when to make the right pass, when they make the right read. And you know, we knew going to that game that whoever made the mistake was going to lose. He was the vet in that game. Right. Like you just said, Baker with that fumble. Stupid. But the really dumb, boneheaded play by Baker was him trying to run the ball himself instead of handed off the Bucky again. Stopped on that short. What was that? Second and one or third and one? And then they get stuffed the next play, right.
- [28:16]
Chad Millman
In the next play, the center snapped it, right?
- [28:19]
Simon Hunter
No.
- [28:19]
Chad Millman
Anybody ready and so the whole thing was blown up.
- [28:23]
Simon Hunter
And like again, that's a veteran team making those stupid mistakes and clutch moments. On the flip side, Jane and Daniels once again, two minute drill, drove the field, whatever that was, four minutes left in the game, ate all the clock up. Perfect drive, sealed it with a field goal. It's, you know, we talk all the time. There's just certain guys that you've never seen it before and you have to adjust to it. Like Chad just said, he got lucky. Jane Daniels, he put his team in the best position, but we just broke it down. Baker lost that game. He was all set up for Baker on multiple times to either close the game out or go up two scores and kind of put the nail on the dagger, right and that game and nail in the coffin and end that game. And you know, he just didn't do it. On the flip side, as much respect as we do have for this Detroit team, I mean, it's going to shock people. I actually like the over two in this game. It's 55, it's a huge over. But this just, everything about this game just screams shootout. Like there's nothing defensively. I know people are like, well, look at their last game against the Vikings. Aren't we all in agreement? That was more about Sam Darnold than anything else. Even if you break down that film, he had guys open and you know that Jane Daniels ain't gonna miss those throws. I don't think this kid is just so poised and you know the pros I talked to that are betting against him in this spot, the reasoning in his sound right, it's really relying on that offense of Detroit and the fact that they're, they're betting on what we bet on. Last week it was fourth down regression from that team in Washington, which, you know, we know it's going to happen. Me and Chad are ready for that. But I also think, you know what he did last week, what were they, were they 60 Evan on fourth down last week. But that feels right rather than I think they're 80% or something above that for the whole season, like 60% makes more sense. That's how special Jane Daniels is. So yeah, for me in this matchup, Chad, I know it's crazy, but of all the games this week, this one feels like not the, the most inflated line, but it really does. Of all the lines like this is the one that doesn't seem right to me at all. And you know, the fact that you can get Jane Daniels right now at +380 +400 a couple books straight up to win this game. How do I not bet that like there is value there facing this Detroit team that has that issue stopping really high powered offenses. And we've seen, you know, Lions are incredible. The one game most recently they did lose to Josh Allen was a shootout. I think it was 48 to 42. And that's, that's my vision. If me and you are betting this Washington team, we think they can pull the upside off, that's where we're gonna need this to be. It's going to be a 40 to 33, 40 to 35 type of win for this Jayden Daniels team. So yeah, I know it's a lot to put on this rookie, but he's just different and we've talked about it. So you know, could be in my words come next week, next Tuesday if he just gets absolutely rolled in this matchup. But I just after watching them back to back starts now against my own team now in the playoffs and it's just his confidence in his poise especially to close these games out, I have to come to terms with this kid is a unique freak and he's, he's just one of a kind. So to me this is a disrespectful line of Jayne Daniels and you know, I feel like we're getting a ton of value here just because there is so much love and respect for this Lions team.
- [31:24]
Chad Millman
Chad, I'm really surprised to hear this all from you. Not that you don't like the Lions at nine and a half, but that the commanders would be your Simon says with a rookie quarterback.
- [31:40]
Simon Hunter
Well, you did take the Eagles.
- [31:42]
Chad Millman
What's that?
- [31:43]
Simon Hunter
So you did take the Eagles, but.
- [31:44]
Chad Millman
Yeah, yeah, well, I mean it's just, it's just, it's a hard one to swallow. It really is.
- [31:52]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's tough. I mean again because we love the Lions. We've loved them all season, Chad. I mean deep down, do I really want them to lose here? No, it's. This is the, the sleeper team for me, just like Buffalo that I want to win the Super Bowl. Their fans deserve it. But when you go through the numbers, it's like they couldn't have picked a more trap. Trap team for this Detroit team. Like everything they can do offensively in Washington is going to give major problems to this Detroit defense. And I just, this is the dream scenario for me, like a high scoring playoff game total of 55. I love it and I love them taking the over here because you know me, I love under especially when it's above 50. But not this one indoors track meet between these two teams. I can't wait. You're never going to feel comfortable either what side you're on this entire game. I could see Detroit getting up by 17 at one point and we're still going to be like, you know what, we got a chance, Chad. We got a chance covering this big.
- [32:42]
Chad Millman
Well, that's the thing. It's like the number is so big and Jaden Daniels is such a wild card that. And they do go for it so frequently on fourth down, the variance is just so much higher. Like the chance to score a lot of points is going to be there. That's. I was not like immediately when I saw this 55 and a half. I'm like, oh yeah, we're going to be on the under in this game. And so this is a completely. This is like the alternative, the opposite day. Simon taking the huge rookie underdog and the huge over Bassett.
- [33:20]
Simon Hunter
You know, it's got to be a lot for me to take it over because I just, I always want to take under. So yeah, I really do have a vision for this game and I'm hoping it pans that way.
- [33:28]
Chad Millman
Los Angeles Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are six point favorites. The total was 43 and a half. This is the Sunday afternoon game. It opened at five and a half. It's bumped up to six. Executive decision, Eagles.
- [33:43]
Simon Hunter
A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders.
- [33:48]
Chad Millman
Execute them.
- [33:50]
Simon Hunter
Executive decision, let's go.
- [33:53]
Chad Millman
What I don't get is on November 24th the Eagles were three point favorites on the road in LA. So obviously we realize home field means a lot less in the NFL this year. But what bookmakers are basically saying by making this game six in Philly after making it three in LA, is that LA's home field is zero. There is no advantage to playing in LA. There is not. Even from a crowd perspective, forget it. There is no advantage to practicing all week at home, to being in your bed until Saturday night, to not traveling like there is zero. There's not even a one point advantage for the Rams to play in la. That to me is what bookmakers are saying in this game.
- [34:50]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I wouldn't overreact to it too much. So it's also, it's, it's week to week with bookmakers. Right. They're making it the lines for that week. They don't really think about the previous line and where the value was in that for home field. And you know, to me as someone that had Green Bay power rated just a little higher and a higher grade. Yeah, I had this line at six and a half. So it's only a half point difference than what I had graded on Green Bay. But I also think I'm my model and everything else is kind of underrated in this Eagles team, which we can dive into here of the sense that, you know, it feels like a lot of pros right now or raiding this Rams team. And I think it is because of their model. And, you know, we saw them come in heavy on the six and a half when it opened on this Rams team and the bookmakers, you said, immediately moved to five and a half, took some Eagles money, bumped it up to six and now they're moving a couple books are back up to six and a half. So it could be the sense of the public and the pros early on were thinking, you know, that's great value on the Eagles and me. And you're hoping they they're going to get caught here because I'm with you. I love this Eagles team. I think this is what we love in the playoffs of team in first round doesn't look that good because of expectations and people hold that against in the next round. And a team that people didn't think we're going to win or be that good gets a little overrated because of what they did in the previous game. And I think we both had the same view of that Vikings game that. Yes, that first drive by Stafford, vintage Stafford. I thought they were going to win that 35 to 10 or something like that. He was just going to pretty close. Yeah. Put up a ton of points. But when you go into it, that offense, you know, take away that defensive touchdown, they put up 20 points against that Vikings defense in which they should have dominated. Like they had that team on their heels basically the whole game. They had a good field position basically the whole game because they had sacked Darnold about nine times in that game, had a bunch of turnovers. So you dive into the numbers. Is Higby really that important to the Rams? Because those first two drives when he was in there, they looked incredible. Moving the ball.
- [36:53]
Chad Millman
Five targets, five catches.
- [36:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And then he leaves and it kind of falls apart. Puka had nine targets. He had five catches for 44 yards. Cooper Cup. What has happened to Cooper Cup? Like, I mean, there's tons of jokes going on the Internet, but I don't know what the hell is real, what's going on there. But he had one catch for 29 yards Cooper cup in that game. That's bizarre.
- [37:14]
Chad Millman
It's not like great catch though.
- [37:16]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it was a great catch. But it's just bizarre where it's like something, something is off. We talked about going into this, something's been off about Stafford in this offense for weeks now. And they have, you know, coming in these playoffs they had moved to a defensive team. So maybe I am underrating their defense too much but I do think that was just about Sam Darnold. Like the dude was holding the ball for over four or five seconds in his pocket. Me and you've watched him all season. Hell, I lost so much money on him early in the year. I was obsessed with Sam Darnold watching that offense and I did move, I turned it around and gave them a ton of credit. But that same Darnold we saw these last two weeks, that's what I thought the season was going to be with him. Like this guy who holds onto the ball too long, he's indecisive in the pocket. He doesn't, he is not comfortable in the read and reading the offense. That was not him for this season. He was so comfortable, so confident in a pass heavy offense. You know I, I, we just what happened these last two games is bizarre and that's, we talk all the time. That's the mental side of football, right? And we see that especially here with Sam Darnold and we do want to give credit to the Rams defense. They did play really well. The Eagles are a different beast and now you have, okay, they weren't even home, right. They're in Arizona. So they have to fly home on Monday, back to LA on a short week now fly out east to come play in Philly and what's going to be a 30 degrees game that starts at 3pm so going to end up being a night game at one point. And you know that's not the best spot for Stafford in these exact situations. I mean if you go through even this season, not that they've had an easy schedule but he never really had to play outdoors in the cold and basically any game this year and you just, I still think in my mind too I came to the season thinking I had Stafford from years past. We've just seen it's just different. Like Stafford is not the guy he was of the past. They are a different offense and they want to do be a run heavy front first type of team with Williams, which makes sense, right? That's part of their identity. But we've seen these two teams play earlier this Year Eagles, you know, they put up 37. I know if you look back, you see the rams put up 21 of that, that last touchdown they scored in the final like minute, it really was 37 to 12. Like that was not by any metric even that close of a game in any way. So I, I do think the public's already in. It's just a great matchup once again for this Eagles team. Like they, if they want to lean on the run here, they can do it. This is a very young, talented, very talented front line of the Rams. Well, they are very young and we've seen they struggle against really good run dominant teams this season. So yeah, for me, if this was in LA indoors, I, I probably would have a different grade on this number. But the fact that we're getting the Eagles at home in this exact spot, I just love the Eagles defensive rolling shock another game. I like the under here. I just, I just can't see the Rams putting up any type of points. And Eagles to me will just be run heavy. I know people don't hear, they want to hear Jalen hurts throwing the ball 25, 30 times. But there's just, no, there's gonna be no need for in this matchup. You just gotta lean in your strength here with the run game. And this just feels like another 25 to 10, 24 to 10 type of win for this Eagles team. It's just, I, I just can't see how the Rams put up multiple grid drives against this Eagles defense where the Eagle strength is that secondary. And that's to me, that's the, the strength of this Rams team with Cooper and Puka and it's just not been that way this, this later half of the season. So, yeah, I'm with Chad here. I love this Eagles. I honestly would bet it up to seven. So even if you're like my only book is only showing six and a half, I still would take that number. I still think there's value there. But we just talked about if you want to do teasers, there's plenty of good options this week to tease as well.
- [40:49]
Chad Millman
Rams had one cold game this year. I don't know if you remember it. I do. It was the New York jets and I believe, believe we were on the jets and the under.
- [41:01]
Simon Hunter
That was a good under game and.
- [41:03]
Chad Millman
And it was the game, I think, where Jeff Ulbricht consistently went forward and fourth down in a game where it was clear.
- [41:11]
Simon Hunter
30. Right. I do remember that.
- [41:13]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Any number. If he had 12 points, he was going to win the game and of course he went forward and fourth down every opportunity, including on his own 30 and they end up losing the numbers. The last time the Eagles played the rams. Freakish.
- [41:30]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [41:31]
Chad Millman
481 total yards, seven yards per play. The Eagles had five sacks. Don't forget that was the game saquon ran for 255 yards. I am not going to be fooled by the Rams dominance against the Vikings when the Eagles are so physically dominant. Their offensive line is not the Vikings offensive line. Their defensive line, as good as the Vikings defense is, is not the Vikings defensive line. These are physical, aggressive, really powerful line of scrimmage opportunities for the Eagles to dominate.
- [42:17]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And amazing stat from Evan Stafford's only outdoor game, 40 degrees or colder since 2021. So 2021, that jets game. So like he just never plays outdoors in the cold and Chad just broke that game. Yeah. If you go back and watch that jets game, they won that game 30 different ways. They basically were the offense for the Rams team. Basically just giving them short fields time and time again. They're not going to have that same scenario here against this Eagles team who is well coached, doesn't do stupid plays like that. And you know, as you just broke it down, they have gotten better, this Rams team defensively. But you have to go back and look at the competition they did it against. Now they're going against arguably the best run team of football with the best pass defense in football and it's just a really perfect matchup for this Eagles team. Honestly, like I personally, personally as an Eagles fan wanted Sam Darnold, but after watching that Rams game, I'm just as happy again. They're just. I don't think they're the same team as they were even two years ago. Right. They're just. I think Stafford's in a much different stage of his career.
- [43:16]
Chad Millman
A.J. brown even had 100 yards and a touchdown in that game. It's the last time he was truly inspired. Boom, boom, Bam. Simon. A lot of things went sideways over the weekend. Coaching mishaps, bad calls by officials. Kansas City being given a bye week. But the biggest impact on performance was simple comfort levels. The Bills and Ravens looked incredibly comfortable and rolled to victory. And just last night the Rams made Sam Darnold almost criminally uncomfortable. And it was a disaster because when you're not comfortable, you can't do anything properly. Our friends at Tommy John's, the Tommy John don't need to be on the headsets and they don't need check the replay to see professional level comfort. And with a special sale for our listeners, you can enjoy the comfort Simon and I experience from head to toe to toe. Join the comfortable men and women who've left thousands of five star reviews raving about Tommy John as they enjoy maximum comfort. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?
- [44:30]
Simon Hunter
Because comfort is king right now.
- [44:33]
Chad Millman
You can shop tommyjohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn.com favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorites what's up everybody?
- [44:50]
Adnan Virk
Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart Podcast and the National Hockey League. It's NHL Unscripted with Burke and Du.
- [44:57]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Immerse, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst. And boy oh boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [45:06]
Adnan Virk
I love you. By the way, on NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [45:14]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're gonna have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture and you know what, tons of back and forth forth on all things NHL.
- [45:24]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We get all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear on NHL.
- [45:34]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts. Ferky.
- [45:37]
Adnan Virk
That's short of kazarakas. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burke and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [45:50]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit everything because we got lots to say. I, I texted you and you texted me back. Now I don't know if you have the update, but like all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like it's all colored. They changed it and the, the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest it was a little pink.
- [46:33]
Simon Hunter
There was something sentimental. When you like, when you send it, it's like, do I send the heart now?
- [46:40]
Bobby Bones
I don't like the color edition.
- [46:41]
Simon Hunter
It's extremely pink.
- [46:42]
Bobby Bones
Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [46:49]
Chad Millman
I saved the best for last. Baltimore at Buffalo.
- [46:55]
Simon Hunter
Good afternoon, everyone. This is Van Miller, and the road to the super bowl goes through Orchard Park, New York. It's playoff time. It is bedlam. It is pandemonium. It is fandomonium. It is fantastic.
- [47:11]
Chad Millman
Depending on where you look, Buffalo is a one point favorite and the total is 51 one and a half. This game is at 6:30pm Eastern on Sunday night. It's all over the place, though. Some places have the Bills minus one. Other places, the Ravens minus one. I've seen the Bills as high as plus one and a half. You know, on Sunday night, producer Gifford was very upset after the show because he thought you and I were fighting when you said you liked the Bills, and I thought it was overreacting to the Bills victory. And so are we still fighting? Who do we trust the most in this game, Lamar or Josh?
- [47:59]
Simon Hunter
No, I think the line's been drawn. The sand. You think Lamar's mvp. I think Josh ons mvp. You love this Ravens team. I love this Bills team. There's no. There's no fighting. We're just two men with two different opinions. And someone's gonna be right. Someone's gonna be wrong. Chad, I'm seeing basically every book has the Ravens as a favorite. So, yeah, it's possible.
- [48:20]
Chad Millman
It's updated. Like, to be fair, I got caught up doing something before the show began. Normally, I'm checking all the lines right before we come on, and the last time I checked them was like 10 o'clock this morning. So it's very possible that right now the Bills are no longer the favorite and they are now an underdog of one.
- [48:38]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, you're a squirrel. You're forging for nuts before the show. I get it. But this. This, this line is.
- [48:43]
Chad Millman
Here's the truth. I. I am starving and I didn't eat before the show, and it was a mistake.
- [48:51]
Simon Hunter
No, that's. I never. Before the show. You think better when you're hungry. It's true. True. It is. Looking at this line, honestly, Chad, I told you this is what was going to happen. We. I really knew that this was going to flip just because I know you thought that public was over. Overreacting to The Bills game. But in my mind it was like they're going to overreact to that Ravens game. Like that was. I mean Derrick Henry just looks like the ultimate game changer like that. People in their mind are going to say this is what Lamar needed to get him over the hump of a Josh Allen or the Chiefs. Right? This is the difference. You got Derek Henry the ultimate game changer. Him and, him and Lamar are the ones you punch. And I mean you touched on a little bit. You said to me, aren't you scared that the Bills won't be able to stop it? Yeah, of course. Like you mean if you go back and watch the first time they played, I think the first carry or whatever it was might have been the first quarter. Like Derek Henry was busting this insane run for a touchdown. Just grown man shit. And I get where you're coming from with this Ravens team and public and professionals agree with you. We've seen this number flip now because so much money has come in on this Ravens team and this is exactly where I want to be. I'm getting now the Bills as a home dog. This is what I wanted and nothing changed for me. It's like this is the exact spot like this Bill's locker room, being told they're a dog here. Josh Allen being a home dog. You know, Evan, or maybe it was Matt Mitchell in our slack was talking in our slack that this is the first time since 1970 the bills are a home dog in the playoffs.
- [50:24]
Chad Millman
First. First time. I think Matt Mitchell put this in the chat. Isn't this the first time they've ever been a home dog in the playoffs ever?
- [50:32]
Simon Hunter
I just told you. Since 1970.
- [50:34]
Chad Millman
I know, but I think that's the beginning of their right.
- [50:38]
Simon Hunter
That's their first home playoff game, I believe.
- [50:40]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [50:41]
Simon Hunter
So this is pretty, pretty special, unique opportunity here, Chad. And does Lamar deserve that type of respect? Yes. We just broke it down. This man might be the three time mvp, should be. He's got arguably the best running back or second best running back in all football and Derek Henry and you know, we talk. They have all pros across the defense like, you know, Raekwon's. Raekwon and Hamilton are just the ultimate combo for that defense. And you know, we've seen them now in this second half really make a huge adjustment and just get so much better. But I told you, I just can't get over the fact that if Josh Allen has the ball and the opportunity to go win this game, I have the ultimate faith of him in this exact spot where Lamar, Chad, I just do not, I do not. If he needs to have a final drive to make, you know, a winner take all type of moment for Lamar in this playoff, in this spot. I just don't have the faith in him. So this one really is tough because the number, you can throw it out, right? We both know it's like one and a half. If this game does come down to one team winning by one, I will eat my fucking words. But this, this game feels like, you know, either a field goal to a touchdown type of win where it's, it's going to be one team kind of dominant, the other team kind of getting a late, late driver, a back door here. And when I really dive into it, yes, the numbers are not great for this Bills team, especially against a type of team that this Ravens team is. But I just keep keep going back to the fact that it's Josh Allen as a home dog in this exact spot. And if you look at the Action app, the Action app, no one believes in them. It's all the money, all the tickets right now are all Baltimore. So I just love this spot. This just feels like the perfect spot to back the Bills. And my dream scenario where Bills win big, dominate Chiefs look bad, they go to Kansas City as somehow a road favorite. Mahomes is a home dog and Arrowhead, like that's my dream setup right now if you're trying to get there with this Chiefs team. So yeah, I, I can't believe that they are up to plus one and a half. This Bills team right now as a home dog. So I can't help but it just moves that much.
- [52:48]
Chad Millman
It makes no sense to bet them at 1. Like you might as well bet them on the money line, right?
- [52:56]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we're like, we, we talk all the time like if, if you are scared off by the number, it's a good tease number. Now you can get them up to seven or if you do a six and a half point teaser, you get up to seven and a half. So like I said though, on Sunday night, I, I could easily be flipped on this game. If the, if that had gone with Chad though, Chad thought, would you think the Bills would be a two point favorite at this point or something like that?
- [53:19]
Chad Millman
Well, they, I think they, they, it was one and a half. When we spoke they had been two and I thought it might go back to two because I thought people would overreact to the Bills and to me.
- [53:31]
Simon Hunter
That would have been great because then we were getting a little more yes. Across a key number of two. And that's where I would have been happy. So to me, this is all about the number and who I've trust in. And these are the best games because it is a game where, you know, not that my model can't figure this one out, but it's like you got to throw it out. This is the most human part of sports betting at this point because it is. Who do you trust? Which quarterback do you trust at the end of this game? And you want to dive into all the numbers. All the numbers. I'm telling you people, I dove into all of it. It favors a team that's six all pros on it in Baltimore. Like there's a reason this team is an absolute juggernaut. Where the Bills, you know, they were left for dead. That's why again, I want to give MVP to Josh Allen. They don't have that across. They don't have a bunch of studs across the board. Right. They're a team that has just been thrown together and it works like that. I can't wait to go in the offseason, really break down it was. Was the offensive line dominant for the Bills or was that once again all Josh Allen? Because how great they are now running down teams throats at the end of games. How Josh Allen never takes sacks. It's just been incredible how this nameless front line of this Bill's offense has done it. We're on the flip side. Ravens are the same thing. They're a nameless offensive line. They've been dominant all season. Yeah. This is in my opinion probably the best game we're going to get in the playoffs until the Super Bowl. Like it doesn't get much better than this. These are two teams that Chad even said top of the show. Like no one's talking about the Chiefs. Everyone's talking about Bills or Ravens super bowl at this point. So I love it. This is. This is my favorite part about Ben. Playoff ball.
- [55:04]
Chad Millman
You are very fired up about this game.
- [55:07]
Simon Hunter
It's the best.
- [55:07]
Chad Millman
And. And I. I am. It feels sucker ish to be betting the Ravens right now. It is.
- [55:16]
Simon Hunter
But sucker has been winning this year, brother.
- [55:18]
Chad Millman
I know.
- [55:18]
Simon Hunter
Don't let that scare you off.
- [55:20]
Chad Millman
I know.
- [55:20]
Simon Hunter
I mean being a sucker has been paying big this year.
- [55:23]
Chad Millman
Part of me feels like I'm waiting to bet this game live because whoever scores the first touchdown, the other team is likely to be an underdog of more than one.
- [55:35]
Simon Hunter
But these teams are who they are. Chad, where the Ravens. I mean, Stuckey's bed. It feels like every week is him giving us Ravens first half, right? And it's been me banging you over the head about every. Doesn't matter what the score is. You take Josh Allen the second half, he's just been. It's been incredible. I think that's another Evan stat, right? Is he 15 and 2 Evans second half against the spread, it's something insane like that this season. So that to me is the biggest thing here, where it's like, that's another reason I have confidence in Josh Allen. If this game is Ravens 13, Bills 10 at half. Chad, I honestly think you're dead. You're dead if you have the Ravens. If this is Ravens by two scores, if they're up by ten and a half, I think that's your best chance at somehow pulling off this win if you're the Ravens team. Because to me, if this is three points or less, Josh Allen's going to get them the second half. He's just been so dominant and the adjustments defensively by this Bills team has been great in the second half. So that's why I do love this matchup for this Bills team.
- [56:34]
Chad Millman
Ravens are minus half a point. First half.
- [56:39]
Simon Hunter
Can't beat that value. That's good value.
- [56:43]
Chad Millman
That feels like a good one to play, right?
- [56:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that's. That's. That's nice because I thought they would give them the. Just the bump that Lamar gets in these first half. So, like, even if he's not a big favorite in the game, a lot of times they've just been hanging two and a half, three first half just because he's been that dominant. So. Yeah, that's actually pretty interesting. Tell by the books there, given that number, right? Yeah. Fishy.
- [57:05]
Chad Millman
It's fishy.
- [57:07]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [57:08]
Chad Millman
This one's tough. I don't have a conclusion here. I'm glad you didn't make it. Simon says it's definitely time on it too, because I'm.
- [57:15]
Simon Hunter
I'm with you. This is a tough game. Tough game.
- [57:18]
Chad Millman
Really tough game. What do you think of the total? The total right now is 51 and a half. Feels high to me.
- [57:24]
Simon Hunter
I know. Under. So I don't want to give it away, but once again, I'm on three unders and one over. So, yeah, last week I couldn't find an over I liked even. Even though Chad almost scared me off my Rams bet because the luck over. But yeah, once. Once we got so many unders, I was like, now this. Everyone's just so tight right now in the playoffs and teams are just not forcing the ball. And I feel like the refs have been calling a lot of penalties. I don't know about you, but it feels like the refs too have been more involved in a lot of like not, not just holds but a lot of stuff making the offenses kind of stagnate. That's. That feels like we've had that up with a bunch of games so far. So yeah, this I, I couldn't. I know it sounds stupid because I'm betting over a 55 and a half but this one 51 and a half. I have this at 48 and a half. So I think there's a ton of value on the under here, especially with these two teams that you know it's going to be cold as hell up in Buffalo. Chad. This is going to be a tight game with two run heavy teams. So I do like the clock to be running this to be a low score.
- [58:21]
Chad Millman
There was, I think it was the Bucs Commanders game where even though it was close a lot of the game and we had the Bucks, I didn't have that usual nervous pit in my stomach and I think it's because the game just kept moving. Like there weren't a lot of penalties. They just kept playing. It was really, it was a really good game and really good football. Really just enjoyed it. One of the rare moments when I did watching the NFL this year and I think the fact there weren't a lot of penalties and it just kept rolling was a big part of it.
- [58:53]
Simon Hunter
That was a good one.
- [58:54]
Chad Millman
All right. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary at bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Simon and I will be back with the next episode of the Favorites on The Action Network YouTube page 11am Eastern Thursday. To narrow it down even further, expand the menu. Whatever we're going to do on Thursday, maybe we'll have more intel that makes us feel differently about the Bills and the Ravens or the Chiefs and the Texans downloads from Spotify, Apple Pods. Wherever you get your pods rate, review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [60:25]
Unknown
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- [60:53]
Adnan Virk
What's up everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [60:58]
Jason Demers
Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [61:04]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
- [61:08]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are gonna join in too. But we're not just gonna be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le table.
- [61:17]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virkin, Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [61:25]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirror ball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.