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- [00:03]
Daniel Jeremiah
The 40s and free agents podcast with Daniel Jeremiah and Greg Rosenthal has prepared you for the 2025 NFL Draft.
- [00:10]
Greg Rosenthal
We've told you what last year's playoff teams need to return to the postseason.
- [00:13]
Daniel Jeremiah
And how teams with new coaches should approach the draft.
- [00:16]
Greg Rosenthal
So as draft season comes to a close, we've got you covered. Before your favorite team goes on the clock, we'll break it all down once all 257 picks have been made.
- [00:25]
Daniel Jeremiah
Listen to the 40s and free agents podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your PODC podcasts.
- [00:54]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, Mike Compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:12]
Daniel Jeremiah
Ah, Chad. We made it, brother. We made it. And I needed it bad. I don't know if you know this, but it is the dark days in Philadelphia with Philadelphia sports right now. We don't have playoffs and hockey. We don't have playoffs. And basketball. The Phillies have already been. Their season's over. It's only in April. The. The season's over for Philadelphia Phillies. So I need this draft. I just need chaos, too. So I. I'm so happy it's here, brother. We're four months away from the start of the season. This will at least hold us over for what, two weeks? A little draft talk. So I'm so happy it's here.
- [01:44]
Chad Millman
Well, look, it'll be two weeks, and then we also get schedule release. Yeah, and then we get win totals. And then we get to start the real work of digging in. Because we'll know the rosters, we'll know the draft picks, we'll know the schemes, we'll know it all, brother. What we're gonna know today after we talk to our guests is so much more than we know right now. Because the 15 minutes we were waiting to go on the air was insane. Revelatory. Prices are moving. There are rumors everywhere. There are mock dracts that are so contradictory to each other, nobody knows anything. We begin the 2025 NFL Draft in green Bay tonight. Today's show has our co hosts of the Action Network podcast who have been leading that show's NFL draft coverage for the past two months. Two mainstays as guests on the Favorites, Chris Raybon, one of the best fantasy rankers in the history of fantasy rankers. You can also hear him every week on the Fantasy Flex with Sean Kerner, maybe his only equal when it comes to fantasy rankers. And Evan Abrams, our regular director of research, the man who signs authentic jerseys filled with stats he spews on the show. We're gonna get to him in a second. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet$5. Sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit $10, place the bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never Ordinary. At BET365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or 1, 800 bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions, restrictions apply all right, Simon, I want to start with you because we had McShay on the show about a week ago and he mentioned something about Ashton Genty, the running back from Boise State, who everyone agrees is a singular talent except for maybe Matthew Friedman, and his draft prospects have been rising. I know Raybon has a lot of thoughts on Genti. I know Evan has been combing the catacombs for research on Genti. A lot of opinions about Genti, who seems to be of a pivot point in this draft. Give me and give the audience, our listeners, the intel that you started hearing after McShay came on the show and talked about Genti.
- [04:48]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yeah, I'll give tons of credit to McShay where he came on here and again my ears perked up because I had heard people talk a little bit about Genty going out outside the top 10 and he was priced that way right when when he was on here, he was over under eight and a half pick eight and a half and the over, I believe was like plus 150 at the time. So, you know, minus 200 on the under of eight and a half at that point. It was something around there. He came on here and talked about the possibility of him going to the Patriots, which at the time was 16 to 1. Now it's 4 to 1, you know, a week later. So he was really ahead of the market. I took a large position on it just because I believed what he was saying. I love the Genty talent. I think what it really came down to what me and you talked about, just the fact that teams have overreacted in my opinion to what happened with the Eagles last year in Saquon. Teams thinks now they think they're running back away where it's just, it's never that easy. Right, Chad? We always joke about that. It's not just one piece for most teams. That was a very unique situation. But in the NFL we've seen that. These teams really do believe that. Now, you know, we're sitting here a week later, he might not go to the Patriots, but all of a sudden the Jaguars or that fifth pick, the trade out position has become the hotbed. And he is now minus 250 to go Genty at pick five, which is crazy to think that, you know, just a week ago he was even supposed to go in the top 10. Now it's big money, minus money that he's going to be a pick five. And to me, I have two big things I need to happen I, I, that I bet on. I need Sanders to go top 10. That'd be very profitable for me because I've just been betting really high plus.
- [06:27]
Chad Millman
Numbers just in case everyone isn't listen. Hasn't been listening. You mean Shador Sanders?
- [06:32]
Daniel Jeremiah
Shador Sanders, yes. And Genti to be a top five pick, like as long as he goes under that six and a half, you know, if he slips past the Raiders, I'm going to take a big negative on the day. It's really my largest position. And it's, you know, the type of thing where everyone takes position for different reasons. I mainly took a position just because every scout I talked to said he was their number three, number two prospect. Every single one. I talked to Chad. So if I'm getting that info and then someone like Todd McShay comes on here and says what he says and then goes on a bunch of other big mainstream shows and start saying the same thing, that what he's hearing is Genti going top five. I feel very lucky that we got him in here early. And I was able to bet it really before anyone else. And it's like that's the dream scenario. I told you, I bet it the whole weekend. So when people ask about the draft and my betting style with it, I do bet a lot of stuff, but I try to find one or two edges and just lean into it hard, like really take a position on it and then I get caught every now and then. Like me, Chad knows the story. Bryce Young, my worst call ever. I just, I never thought in any world he'd be number one pick. It does happen. So I'm not telling everyone to go out There for your life season here and Genti being a top five pick. We all, we all sit here and we talk with different people, but at the end of the day, like Chris and I'm sure Evan can attest to it. It's a guessing game during the day.
- [07:52]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [07:52]
Daniel Jeremiah
We're playing off people's mock. So I do feel confident, Chad, but you know the deal, brother. I'm. I didn't sleep last night. It's a lot of nerves because you're just, you're betting on the what if not so much what.
- [08:03]
Chad Millman
You know, Ray Ban. You've been loving Genti for a long time. You guys have been talking about this. How do you feel about this movement?
- [08:13]
Greg Rosenthal
It was expected, I think. I know me and Evan have been kind of talking about kind of taking like looking at that top of the board. We didn't. There was so much uncertainty even going back throughout the whole process kind of take what's the second most likely thing. I know Dan back and I talked about Genty in March to the Jaguars at. I think it was something ridiculous like 50 to 1 or something like they weren't. It was nowhere near what it is now. So I think one of the things with the draft, if, if you've been betting it like throughout the process, you're probably in a great spot right now, as Simon alluded to. But now is the time when you really, really, I think, want to fade the consensus. Like it's not the time to bet on accident. He's. But the reason he's there is he as he should be, is because look at the tea leaves. This is a bad quarterback class. This is a bad draft class in general. According to most scouts, teams don't have more than probably 10 to 15 first round grades on guys in, in. In this whole draft. So what you're seeing is the best players, the cream is rising to the top and the best players are Travis Hunter, Abdoul Carter and Ashton Jensen. In my opinion, Cam Ward, the Titans are just like, oh man, Will Levis on his knees. We can't do that again. So we got. But Cam Ward's not, he's not the fourth best, you know, prospect in this class. It's probably somebody like Mason Graham or something like that. So it's not surprising at all with Genty rising. But I don't think now is the time you want to be investing in him. I think now is the time where you start hitting up these hype guys and kind of fading the hype on guys like Banks who like nothing Changed. And he's all of a sudden, you know, like a mock. Mocks him number six. And now his over under is like number seven. Where it was what Evan was like in the 20s or third, it was just 13, just yesterday at plus money and now it's like seven and a half at some book. So you just gotta kind of fade the hype now. But Genti is there because he's, he's, I think he's a top five prospect in this in a weak class.
- [10:24]
Chad Millman
All right, before we get to Banks and we're talking about Kelvin Banks, the offensive tackle from Texas whose numbers are moving up and his odds are shrinking. Evan, I want. And we're going to get to that conversation. Before we came on the air, you started talking about what some books have been saying about their positioning and what they need tonight related to Genti.
- [10:47]
Simon Hunter
Some of this is universal. I've heard it from a few different ones. But the quote is basically they're hoping that Genti falls out of the top five and everything else they'll figure out later. It just seems like everyone has invested in that. Whether it's at 4, at 5, top 5. I've even heard some people say, hey, let's take a shot at three. I just think what Raymond said, most talented players, 1, 2, 3, Carter, Hunter, it's Genti at the top. So I just think in a class where the offensive skill position players, including the quarterbacks are being questioned all over the place, he's just not being questioned. He's one of the more talented running backs we've seen even enter the NFL in the last few years. So I just think it's becoming a. What do I want to give up to move up to get him or just let someone take the uber talented guy? So I think right now if you're giving like gambling advice on this, like hours before the draft, I don't think you can invest much into him because again, even at 365 right now, under six and a half is like minus 550. There's just hard to even invest in those areas. And minus 250 again. And even in the last 24 hours, that five slot, he's gone from 170 to 200 to 250. It just keeps moving up. So seems to be the consensus.
- [12:00]
Chad Millman
Honestly, yeah, the movement on a lot of these players has been pretty insane. The other player where there's a ton of movement really on his draft position is Shador Sanders, quarterback from Colorado. Raybon, what have you seen and why do you think this is moving so much?
- [12:22]
Greg Rosenthal
So, yeah. To start the process, there was a time when Shador Sanders was expected to be the number one overall pick. Then he kind of settled in as the, you know, the consensus number two for a while, and then I think, you know, he worked out for some teams and started sliding a bit, but I just don't think that again. So the way the draft works for people that are unfamiliar is teams have their draft boards and they kind of rate their. Their prospects by round. So they'll be like, all right, you know, we have 10 players with a first round grade now there's 32 have to go in the first round. But I think it's a situation where a lot of teams have a second round or even lower grade on a Shador Sanders. And so you're just seeing them fall. And I think it's interesting because if you look back at the last 10 years or so, quarterbacks that go in the first round, they only go to teams that they've done a top 30 workout for. The only time that didn't happen in the first round was TUA in the COVID year, where I think he sent a taped workout in to the Dolphins or something like that. So Chador Dart, all these guys could fall. Like, I think Cam Ward is pretty safe, but I don't think Shador Sanders is a great fit in Pittsburgh. I know people are talking about the intangibles, but that's because everyone's just. It's. They're just looking at team needs where we don't really know the grades that these teams have on guys. But just reading between the lines, no one seems in a rush or no one seems kind of pressed to take or to trade up. So that tells you what these, you know, what they feel about the quarterback class and just the class in general. No one's been able to trade, period, because everyone wants to trade back because it's better to just take a bunch of shots because no one really likes anyone. So Shador is just kind of included in that, I think. I think the issue with him is arm strength and that. And. And that's it. That would be a real issue for Pittsburgh, which is why I don't think he goes 21. And if he doesn't go there, you might just see the second round play out. Like, people thought a month ago or even a couple weeks ago that the first round would play out where, you know, Cleveland. It's between Cleveland and the Giants. You know, who gets Shador and who gets Jackson. Dark because just the quarterbacks as a whole are kind of. Kind of fallen. And if. If other guys are rising, I think it's just kind of fake hype to. To make up for the fact that, you know, Shador was at one point expected to go number two. So now you're seeing like, oh, well, maybe Milro takes his place or like, it's like, no, just no one likes any of these guys. Cam Ward is the best quarterback and he's meh. Like, I heard a scout say Mason Rudolph. Mason Rudolph would be the number three quarterback in this class. So that tells you what, what people think about this quarterback class.
- [15:15]
Chad Millman
Well, Simon, you just said that you're heavily invested in Shador. Top 10. How did you get there?
- [15:24]
Daniel Jeremiah
Just because of the numbers. It was most books Yesterday moved to 10 and a half at plus 300. I said, okay, I'll take a position. And then it goes to 14 and a half. Chat plus 300. Oh, gotta take another position, I guess. And then it gets up to 21 and a half and it goes. Okay, well, we're at this point now. It's not as juiced up, right. I think the 21.5 was minus 115 when I first saw it. So, you know, you're not getting that crazy value, obviously with the plus number, but still better just because of how much has moved. I could easily be caught here, Chad, but my bet is simply on desperation. And, you know, these teams act confident and secure, but we've seen teams panic time and time again when this draft starts. And it is because so many of these guys are thinking future, right? Like if you're a gm, Sanders might extend you another year or two of a life because you got this young kid in there, right? You got the young quarterback. And it's all about potential. Like, this is someone that, you know, people I respect have him great as their number one quarterback. So when I see that, I'm just like, okay, all it takes is one team to love the kid. That's. That's what I'm betting on one team to love them. They. They finally take a position, they move either to take them or they take them to the draft spot they have. So my view of this class is like, when I've talked to scouts, Chad, it's been. They love next year. So most. That's the biggest issue for this class right now is next year's class looks like a juggernaut. It looks like the year before, right? Like you might have 1, 2, maybe even 3 legit QB1 all pros where this class, like Chris just said, we would all be shocked if Cam Ward ends up being an all Pro. I think he could be talented. I think he could be a Pro Bowler. But like, we've heard the ceiling for him is like, what people compare him to Steve McNair. That would be insane if he could reach that potential. But the odds are so slim. Where the next year's class there feels like there's a couple of guys that have a lot more potential. So that's been interesting to me, Chad, talking to these different teams where it's like, okay, the Browns, they do need a quarterback. Like Christian said, they might be confident in just waiting for the second round. Taking Milroe, they might have a different grade than we all know on Sanders, right? They might have him below dart and Milroe. So that's what's so fun, right? About the betting market. It's like you're hearing so many teams super negative. Are you hearing much positive chat about Sanders? No. And that's for a good reason, right? So that's why I love making these type of bets. I'm betting on that dark horse team that's just not saying a word. Like the Atlanta Falcons last year taking Penix when they did, right? No one saw it coming. That's kind of what I'm banking on here. So, yeah, it's. It's really fun where, like, you know, the Rams, I've taken a position on them to take Sanders at 50 to 1 because I could see in some crazy world, McVeigh loves him. We don't even know. So there's always teams like that. I'll do that, Chad. But it's like, do I have inside info? No. If I did, people, we'd be. We'd be going crazy on here right now. But yeah, the Sanders chatter to me is interesting. It's all negative the last two, three days before the draft, zero positive. And that's very telling that there are teams out there that love them. They're just playing the game right now.
- [18:26]
Chad Millman
How do we get here? Here's what. None of this makes sense to me, and it's so stupid. And these are. These are billion dollar franchises, right? These are not insignificant businesses that are flying under the radar. And these are decisions that have generational impacts on the success of these teams. The revenue these teams can drive, the fandom of these teams, the profile of these teams, these are massive decisions. Shador Sanders. During the college football season, everybody's like, oh, this guy's gonna be the number one Pick. There wasn't even a question, right? It was, it was like consensus. He's the best. He's the guy we want. It's not like Cam Ward, who had a great year at Miami, was that different of a quarterback at Washington State. He just did it against, you could argue, nominally, better competition. It's not like the ACC was so much better than the Pac 12. So why is this thing so fucking flawed? It is so stupid. The entire decision making process, to me it just feels like. Evan, it just feels like we're throwing darts. How are we making any decisions here with any confidence?
- [19:52]
Simon Hunter
I think people started and this is just person my opinion and you guys can disagree or agree. I think they started meeting with Shador and that's what ended up happening. Like, I think you were there. People started to get like a one on one experience of talking through the playbook, talking through different things, maybe hearing what he had to say on some of these things. That's when this started to move. Like no one's done almost anything on the field. No one's done almost anything to move anything really, aside from having conversations with these players, looking at tape on these players and trying to make, let's call it, $100 million decision, billion dollar franchises. Right? And I think he's moved from three and a half in terms of his draft position all the way up to 21 and a half. And at the moment you've got, you know, maybe your top eight mock drafters, four or five of them completely out of the first round, while the other one is like Pittsburgh as shrug emoji. And that's kind of what the other person has said because at this point no one is saying, like Simon said, that they like him. It's all negative energy leading up to the draft, which is completely moving his number up. So I mean, personally today, what I would do to bet on it, I mean, I'd probably take a stab on that top 10. But right now the best odds is 3 to 1. So I mean, maybe New Orleans a 10 to 1 and it all being just a smokescreen. And you know, we heard the car stuff yesterday, which was completely strange, completely odd. Like they have no answers, they won't have an answer before the draft. And now we say, well, they need a quarterback. So at 10 to 1, that would probably be the way I'd look at it. But you're right, Chad. I mean, it's really, really strange considering. I think it's just movement off of conversations and kind of the GMs and coaches being Played off a little bit like that. I just don't think they, they want the circus.
- [21:38]
Greg Rosenthal
I think this is, this is all, just all of the draft stuff and the movement is media generated and prognostication generated. Like, I don't think that these teams are necessarily, you know, here, like, kind of. I don't think there's, I don't think they're doing it wrong. I think, I think they probably knew the whole time where their draft board it was. And then it wasn't until people really started laying things out and everyone was kind of waiting for some domino to fall. Like, oh, I wish there was a trade so, like, we could kind of get some sense of like, who's going to go where. Literally, guys are moving like halfway up and down the board off one mock draft and we're day of the draft, day of the draft, and dudes who I couldn't even name put out a mock. Like, I'm not like, you know what I mean? Like, there's just too many of them. But one guy, it's not even like, okay, an overwhelming amount of mocks are doing this. It's like, okay, well, this guy who does mox and like finished in the top 10 that one year put this guy here, so we got to move him from 13 to 6. Like, it's just no one knows anything. The teams knew all along, I think, but I think media, first of all, we're a little. We're always going to be infatuated with quarterbacks. And when it's early in the process and you know, you're kind of looking at, okay, well, quarterbacks at the top of the board, to Simon's point, you're kind of betting on that desperation. But as we've gotten, I think, closer and closer to the draft, I just think we're kind of seeing a lack of desperation in the actions. Like, it's not just like, I don't think it's just like a. Teams are. It's like a smokescreen. And, you know, I think the fact that no movement has been able to happen, no trades have been able to happen, just tells you that teams don't have a lot of first round grades and no one's really trying to trade up for anyone. Everyone's kind of comfortable where they are just letting the board fall to them because there's not really a lot of upside unless the, the real reports have been Hunter and Jente and, and Cam Ward. So it makes sense. The top quarterback who's probably in a tier above everyone else and then just top prospects. So I, I think, I think that, I think the teams knew along, but, you know, it was just kind of the me. The media hype drives it and it's still driving this crazy movement. And we're hours out.
- [24:05]
Daniel Jeremiah
The 40s and free agents podcast with Daniel Jeremiah and Greg Rosenthal has prepared you for the 2025 NFL Draft.
- [24:12]
Greg Rosenthal
We've told you what last year's playoff teams need to return to the postseason.
- [24:15]
Daniel Jeremiah
And how teams with new coaches should approach the draft.
- [24:18]
Greg Rosenthal
So as draft season comes to a close, we've got you covered. Before your favorite team goes on the clock, we'll break it all down once all 257 picks have been made.
- [24:27]
Daniel Jeremiah
Listen to the 40s and free agents podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [24:36]
Chad Millman
McShay alluded to this last week. There really is no upside for any gm, any scout, any executive to give anybody in the media who covers the draft any real information. So it's all dependent upon us believing that somebody has a good enough relationship that they're getting directional content. They're never going to get real content and more than likely they're getting shitty content. And so you know Raybon, you mentioned Kelvin Banks earlier in the show. This is a guy who, the tackle from Texas was not listed anywhere as the top overall offensive line prospect. It has been Will Campbell. Will Campbell. Will Campbell. Will Campbell. All of a sudden, Evan, you can tell us the numbers. Kelvin Banks like could be going as high as number six to the Raiders at this point. What is the movement been like for him? But he's a very good example of Raybon, what you're talking about. Evan, give us the numbers.
- [25:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's been consistent movement, honestly. And each week me and Raybon do the action podcast Banks conversation every time because it's been steady. So he opened a 24 and a half even just yesterday on BET 365. He was at 13 and a half but ends up 13 and a half over plus 350 ends up moving to now 7 and a half at over at even odds. So I mean at this point we're just trying to, I don't want to call it randomly, but we're just selecting offensive tackles at this point to put into that. I've seen member with that 6 slot as soon as we heard Genti going 5. I think everyone is trying to figure out what the heck the rating Raiders are going to do, especially because it's a new Raiders. There's Brady involved there's Kara. I just think we don't know this Raiders team. So I think trying to figure out what's going on there. But Banks, ton of mock drafts. If Genti doesn't go five, I think he'll go six, I think. But if he goes five, I think Membu Banks are both the possibilities there. But I, I think if I look at it right, I think Banks has been the biggest mover up out of almost anyone. Second's probably McMillan, but right now it's Banks. The numbers are crazy. Sent a screenshot to Rayon and our producer Matt Mitchell last night. Banks was minus 1200 to go top 10 at a certain book at that point, it's just the movement's insane and nothing has happened.
- [27:07]
Greg Rosenthal
That's what's crazy. That's why I tell people should, should, should. Like Ean, you were talking about Banks being like the number two tackle at what, like 10 to 1 odds and greater than that? Like, you were high on Banks when he, he was still. People were still mocking him as a guard. Now all of a sudden he's at the top tackle. Like, what? This is. Nothing has happened. No one. He didn't block anyone like this. What are we doing?
- [27:33]
Chad Millman
Well, this is what I love about the draft and I do want to get to Simon. You've laid out your positions, but Ray Ban and Evan, I want, I want you to recap positions for people. Sure. Shemar Stewart, defensive end from Texas A and M. You know, he's got four and a half career sacks in three seasons, but he tested as the best athlete at the combine. He's either Mike Mamula, who old heads will remember Mike Mamula, who was a defensive end at Boston College, who had done nothing, went to the combine and all of a sudden became a top 10 pick for the Philadelphia Eagles because his athleticism so wowed every single scout there. Or the Wall Street Journal, which you guys know, I love the sports section of the Wall Street Journal. They had a story this morning about Stewart where people are grading him as anything from Javon Curse, who was an athletic freak who played for the Titans, to Myles Garrett, who is going to be in the hall of Fame for the Cleveland Browns. But the guy didn't do anything in college. And the response you get is, well, it wasn't a scheme, it wasn't a system that was conducive to him doing anything. Why can anyone say that? And everyone accepts that without any pushback whatsoever. If the guy is that good of an athlete in college football, what coach isn't building the system to take advantage of a guy who can dominate like that. You don't make like a guy like that a fucking compliment on the defensive line. You make him the focal point of the defensive line. This makes no sense to me, Simon. Explain it to me.
- [29:24]
Daniel Jeremiah
Because you're going it from it from just one perspective. Where it does, it does work out that way where you're taking the potential and I get where you're coming from, Chad, because there are in my opinion way more misses than hits. But when you do hit on the right type of potential, it's like you got an all timer, all pro. Like my favorite ever always be the Jordan Melota. Like a guy played rugby was a nobody. The Eagles had them on their board. So we can get this kid in the seventh round. He's some Australian guy that plays rugby. He's 18, he's big as we'll turn him into a left tackle now. He's probably number one, number two, best left tackle. I know what you're saying, but I'm saying that's drafted on potential. Where like you're saying the first round to me, I'm with you. That the risk isn't the same. Where you're taking a guy a potential in the first round of that great of risk. It is not the same. But these teams talk themselves into a chad because they see these guys work out and they say, well we have much better coaching. Like right there's not. This kid's not wasting time going to class. He's going to be in here work and putting the work in. Where like you're saying it doesn't work that way. So I'm with you. I hate it. But I get why they do it because for every, you know, four or five misses the one thing that does it on the one guy, it's, it's huge in football, right? It's, it's game changing potential. So I'm with you. It's. It's tough. But you know there's this draft class like we're talking about here. Chris said it's a weak draft class to me. I love this draft class because they're, they're all. It feels like the same type of level. Like you can get really good guys at pick 42, 45. As these teams reaching right now I pick seven, pick six. So to me it's really interesting. Like we're talking about here like Will Campbell. Some people, Chad don't even have him as a first rounder because of his arms. Like that's what I'm saying this is crazy that this kid might go pick four and you have some scouts have a second round grade on them because of potential. So yeah, it's, this is going to be a crazy draft class. I can tell you that from just the get go.
- [31:25]
Greg Rosenthal
You get some great second rounders in the first round this year.
- [31:29]
Simon Hunter
I think that's true though. I think that's why the, the trading back is so interesting right now. Because I think other teams are looking at the board and saying themselves, okay, well we can draft at 11 or 12 or 13, or we can try to double up and triple up and get more players because I do think it's a little bit level. Like look at the defensive line. You have like seven, eight, nine defensive linemen who could be going in the first round. And I'm sure team's grades are all over the place. Like even Stewart is fifth or sixth if you look at order on some mock drafts. So it's just about preference. I think a preference draft is a real good way to kind of cap it.
- [32:02]
Greg Rosenthal
Yeah. And you're gonna, you're going to take more risks in a year like this. So Stuart, like, listen, the top quarterback and in the second quarterback, definitely some teams I don't think have a top 50 grade on Shador Sanders, tap McMillan, the same thing was said about him. He's the consensus number one receiver. And then the minute they said that about him the next day, all of a sudden teams in the top six are wanting to draft. That's a, that's complete damage control. Like to your point about, you know, there's a lot of. The media is kind of being used as, you know, mouthpieces. So that's why I'm, I'm just kind of like anti. You just got to kind of fade the consensus and the earlier you start doing it in the process, the better positions you're going to have. But oh man, this is just a great, a great draft for kind of going against the grain because I think teams legit have like 8 to 12 first round grades, if that. So it could go any which way.
- [32:58]
Chad Millman
Well, I want to get into Raybon to what your thoughts are right now. I just say one more thing before I ask you that question is if the Bears draft Shemar Stewart, I am going to freaking lose it. Because we know the Bears need a defensive end and if this is how they decide to spend their draft capital, I will freak out. Also reporting one out RIP Steve McMichael, 1985 Bears legend. Raybon, give me your I just wanna.
- [33:26]
Daniel Jeremiah
Say real quick Chad, that's our point though is you can get at the end of the second round. That's why like this class is so fun.
- [33:32]
Chad Millman
Let's get Shamar Stewart in the second round. Let's not get number 10.
- [33:35]
Daniel Jeremiah
That's all just say for your drafting style like you not wanting to draft on someone that only gets four sacks in college, you don't want to draft that potential. There are more than half the GMs are legit your drafting style, Chad. So you're not an island there. I so people might think Chad's being off basis. He's not like there's a lot of guys that think the exact same way but there's always gonna be that young punk, right? The new guy with this computer that's going to come in and be like, no, the numbers say this and they say that. So yeah, I just want to give both perspective that I agree with Chad that I, I draft the same way. I would never draft someone that's not a football player first. That to me is, is the biggest thing. I want an athlete, all that, but I want a football player first. So I think Chad's the same way.
- [34:15]
Chad Millman
Listen, Chad loves hitting home runs. Chad loves being a genius for finding a diamond in the rough. I'm looking at three people that I have hired over the course of my career who had no business doing any of the jobs that I hired him for. And it turns out they were genius, genius moves home runs. But Chad knows that home runs are really hard to hit. And Chad knows that at the end of the day, if you're building a team, you've got to have a lot of people who are really good at what they do and have proven that they're really good at what they do and have proven they can deliver at high numbers over an extended period of time if you're going to spend the money. Chad understands these things. Shemar Stewart. Chad would not be making Shemar Stewart a first round pick. Raybon, give me your best bets right now.
- [35:09]
Greg Rosenthal
Okay, so I we're doing this, you know, on the day of draft. So a bunch of over unders are kind of going crazy. So those are the ones I've been attacking today. So I'll run through some pretty quick. Kelvin Banks Jr over pick seven and a half at Even Money. He's still probably the consensus across all mocks he's still at 13 but I think 10 is probably a much more realistic even if you want to buy into the hype. But it's all hype. Then I got Ted McMillan over pick 12 and a half at plus 160. I think he's at best probably a 50, 50 shot to go to the Cowboys. We don't even know if they prefer him to Golden. And I think, I think the, the stuff about the Jags and the Raiders, that was all just damage control after you had and like mock drafters saying they had. They had low grades on them and you had teams reportedly teams saying they. They barely had him cracking the top 50. So I think that's great value. Then I got Will Johnson Under SP pick 24 and a half. I think that's. That the slide has been too crazy. I mean he's. He was going in the top 10 at some points and nothing's really changed. But all of a sudden, you know, now he's like he's not even going to crack the top 24. I think that's crazy. And then Milro overpicked 38 and a half. I mean we're talking about the, the QB2 falling out of the first round. I think it's more of a indictment on the whole quarterback class than the fact that like Anthony Richardson light is gonna dart up people's draft board so faded him. And one more Emeka Abuka. This, this one's probably makes me the most nervous. But over pick 26 and a half at plus 122 or over pick 29 and a half at plus 215. I just mo. Most times I've seen him mocked have been like pick 30, 31, 32 or just out of the first round completely because there's still a lot of potential to kind of jockey for that jockeying for position with the quarterback situations. And there's still I think more defensive players that there's going to be runs on positions, you know, like corner and address kind of coming to an end where teams are going to feel comfortable kind of waiting on him. So like him to not crack the top 30 either. I think in general, I think, I think offensive skill positions are a bit inflated in this, in this draft top to bottom in the first round.
- [37:46]
Chad Millman
Ev, I want to get your. Your latest as well. But let me ask the group right now, based on what we're hearing about Sanders, what you just said about Milroe Raybon, like if the number two rated passer isn't even may fall out of the first round, what do we think of under two and a half quarterbacks taken in the first round?
- [38:13]
Simon Hunter
I'm a fan.
- [38:13]
Greg Rosenthal
It's kind of yeah it's, it's, it's probably just not the best way to attack it because there is the possibility that, you know, they like just if one team trades up then another team might have to trade up just to make sure because New Orleans is looming. But yeah, I think it's probably more likely than not that it's Round two is what we thought round one was going to be and no one moves like anywhere.
- [38:38]
Simon Hunter
The interesting thing is, I think I was gonna say I think Raymond hit on that though. I've been betting this draft with him for like over a month now and I don't think I've touched that market of the two and a half quarterbacks because I think there's just different ways to play it. But if I had to bet it, I'd probably say under two and a half. Just going through some of my bets though. I've been betting SEC players over 14 and a half for a while now. It's under 2 to 1, under 1 to 2. So it's minus 195, minus 190. I don't have to go through all the players but I, I do think 15 is the record, it would tie the record and I see at least 15, 16 getting in there. So that's one bet I like. I was with Ray Bond on Banks. Listen, I've got banks top 10 at like 7 to 1, 6 to 1. So at this point over 7 and a half is going to be the way that I'm at least going to get back into the market to play it the other way a little bit. Some first round bets I like. So I've been on Kenneth Grant for a long time now. I got him at minus 230, minus 250. He's up to like 350 in some places. But there is a book out there that'll let you like parlay first round picks. So I think there's at least an ability to put him in a parlay to potentially do something. The other one I like is Siobhan Revel. He was 3 to 1 yesterday to get in the first round. Cornerback, it's now plus 180. I think anything above like plus 150 range is still something I would consider. And the other one I keep betting and listen, I don't know because the odds keep coming down but I'm still a fan. Is Hampton to be the second running back? I, I just have him over Henderson in almost every scenario. It's down to like minus 250. I've seen minus 230 I still think at 20 at Denver. And even if they both fall to the end of the first round or second round, I still see Hampton as a better option. So right now those are probably the ones I would consider. I will say this. Yesterday I took some dark throws on McMillan at 9 and McMillan at 10. Complete dart throws I 18 to 1 at 9, 25 to 1 at 10. They are both now 161 and under. So him kind of falling or being. I know the trade up is kind of crazy at this point, but in those slots seem to be getting some momentum. I have some specials but we can talk about that in a second. Those are direct from bet365. But right now, again, a lot has moved. But those are probably the bets.
- [40:59]
Chad Millman
Simon, anything to add other than what we've discussed?
- [41:04]
Daniel Jeremiah
Yeah, I would say from the beginning of the show what Chris said about, you know, all this crazy movements off people's very late mock drafts of the last couple days embrace it. Like they're talking about the Banks play go against the norm. And that quarterback movement to me is incredibly interesting, Chad, because it was up to what, -350 the over on quarterbacks in the first round. So that is either they're moving that off air or someone incredibly smart with a lot of money and knows what's going on in the league, took a position the books respected and moved off it. Now more often not in the draft chat, they move off air. So I'm probably going to be patient. I'm going to hope the public keeps following. I'm probably going to bet the over two and a half and I'll probably bet the over three and a half just because I know next year's draft class is really strong with quarterbacks. But we've seen these teams trade back into the first round to get the quarterback just because of the fifth year option. Right. Like you know, how many times have we seen that happen? I'll bank on that. But I do agree where it's like we're going to know pretty quick, right. If Sanders falls to 21, Chad, I'm probably going to eat that, eat that bet. That's probably a dead bet because if Pittsburgh or any of these teams pass on him and he falls out of the first, I'm gonna need to get really lucky on dart and Milroe to hit this bet. So it really is a bet where I'm like I said in the beginning of the show, I'm heavy on betting on Sanders, heavy on Genti. I need a little bit of luck with Sanders here because every move I've made, it's gone against me. It just keeps going down. So yeah, the people in the know. I know Chris wants to say something here that might be way off on Sanders.
- [42:42]
Greg Rosenthal
No, what I was going to say is another position that I'm kind of really strong on is Sanders not to go to Pittsburgh. I think even people that are mocking him there and that's what a lot of the books are kind of moving off to Simon's point, they're just saying like Pittsburgh just needs a quarterback and we don't know what else to do. So we're mocking him there. Right? Yeah, he just makes the least sense from a skill perspective given the receivers they have. And I know now they're talking about trading, picking, so who knows. But I think that it's very. Again he didn't work out for them. It's. It just doesn't happen that teams end up going with a quarterback who they didn't like do any pre draft work with. And on top of that Pittsburgh could have a deal with Aaron Rodgers in place and they just don't want to tip their hand and Aaron Rodgers doesn't want to deal with like you know, more camp and media questions and stuff and pickings questions and so they might, who knows. But I just don't. I think that's a great way to fade some of like this in a smart way is like giants +650 you could get as high to draft Sanders and the Browns you could still get at plus 550 if Pittsburgh passes on him. The second round might literally just be what we thought the first round was going to be for most of the process where it's the Browns or the Giants and one of them takes Dart and one of them takes Sanders and I think that's a really smart way to attack it because I just do not think that that Pittsburgh makes a lot of sense for.
- [44:14]
Simon Hunter
For Shador with that thought process. Milro probably slides as well, which is why the 38 and a half that you posted I think is interesting because if you believe that they slide, he's gonna slide as well.
- [44:25]
Greg Rosenthal
Yeah, we already talked about shock. We're here and like Milro teams have probably second, third round grade on them. But yeah, like if you just look at the draft order like who's really trying to trade up for him even in that like it just doesn't none of this quarter quarterbacks are usually just inflated. There's the one odd year where sometimes a bunch of quarterbacks go. But generally speaking in books can choose who they post and like you don't see over unders on like Connerly or guys like fringe first rounders that you could. That would kind of take the place of some of these inflated guys. So just don't get caught up in a hype. That's, that's.
- [44:59]
Daniel Jeremiah
You would agree though, Chris, there's so many teams you wouldn't be shocked like the jets taking Sanders at 7.
- [45:03]
Greg Rosenthal
Oh yeah.
- [45:04]
Daniel Jeremiah
Wouldn't shock you just because they're a desperate team with a crazy owner. So like there's a lot of that where it's like there are teams who need quarterbacks. Justin Fields, he's not the answer to the jets future. Right. So I do think that part's interesting. There is a bunch of dark horse teams we don't even know about that could just, you know, take one of these quarterbacks.
- [45:21]
Chad Millman
Guys, in less than 24 hours we're going to know the answers.
- [45:26]
Greg Rosenthal
Unless they all we're going to be.
- [45:28]
Chad Millman
We're going to be geniuses.
- [45:30]
Greg Rosenthal
We might not know.
- [45:32]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, we may not know. But yes.
- [45:36]
Greg Rosenthal
About any quarterback.
- [45:39]
Chad Millman
If Shador hasn't been drafted, we'll know a lot more than we did right now.
- [45:42]
Simon Hunter
That's fair.
- [45:44]
Daniel Jeremiah
Steelers just moved to minus 150 to take Sanders so that another mock came.
- [45:49]
Greg Rosenthal
In and they didn't know where else.
- [45:51]
Chad Millman
That's right. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 new bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never Ordinary. At BET365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older and in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions, restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page. Tuesday, 1:30pm Eastern. Talking about NFL draft grades, Download us from Spotify, Apple pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe. Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [46:58]
Simon Hunter
Action Network reminds you, Please gamble responsibly.
- [47:02]
Chad Millman
If you or someone you care about.
- [47:03]
Simon Hunter
Has a gambling problem, help is available.
- [47:06]
Greg Rosenthal
247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [47:11]
Daniel Jeremiah
The 40s and free agents Podcast with Daniel Jeremiah and Greg Rosenthal has prepared you for the 2025 NFL Draft.
- [47:18]
Greg Rosenthal
We've told you what last year's playoff teams need to return to the postseason.
- [47:22]
Daniel Jeremiah
And how teams with new coaches should approach the draft.
- [47:25]
Greg Rosenthal
So as draft season comes to a close, we've got you covered. Before your favorite team goes on the clock, we'll break it all down. Once all 257 picks have been made.
- [47:33]
Daniel Jeremiah
Listen to the 40s and free agents podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.