Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Episode: The Favorites - NFL Draft Best Bets
Release Date: April 24, 2025

Introduction

In this episode of "The Favorites," presented by bet365 and part of The Volume Podcast Network, hosts Chad Millman of the Action Network and his co-host Simon Hunter delve deep into the intricacies of the 2025 NFL Draft. Joined by guests Chris Raybon, a renowned fantasy ranker, and Evan Abrams, the show's director of research, the discussion centers around key draft prospects, betting strategies, and the unpredictable nature of this year's draft class.

1. Ashton Genti's Rising Draft Prospects

Ashton Genti: A Pivot Point in the Draft

The conversation kicks off with a focus on Ashton Genti, the standout running back from Boise State. Initially considered a top-10 pick, Genti's draft position has surged, making him a central figure in this year's draft narrative.

• Daniel Jeremiah [04:47]: "He came on here and talked about the possibility of him going to the Patriots, which at the time was 16 to 1. Now it's 4 to 1, a week later."

Raybon discusses the rapid shift in Genti's odds, attributing it to teams' overreactions based on last year's performance of running backs like Saquon Barkley.

• Daniel Jeremiah [06:27]: "He is now minus 250 to go Genti at pick five, which is crazy to think that, you know, just a week ago he was even supposed to go in the top 10."

2. Shador Sanders' Unprecedented Draft Slide

Quarterback Conundrum

Shador Sanders, the highly touted quarterback from Colorado, has experienced a significant drop in his draft projections. Initially expected as the number one overall pick, his position has plummeted due to concerns over his arm strength and fit with potential teams.

• Chad Millman [19:51]: "It just feels like we're throwing darts. How are we making any decisions here with any confidence?"

• Greg Rosenthal [12:22]: "So the way the draft works... a lot of teams have a second round or even lower grade on Shador Sanders."

Simon Hunter highlights the market skepticism regarding Sanders, noting the shift from high confidence to widespread doubt.

• Simon Hunter [10:47]: "There's a lot of movement. It just seems to be the consensus."

3. Kelvin Banks' Unexpected Surge

Offensive Tackle's Rising Odds

Kelvin Banks, the offensive tackle from Texas, has seen his draft odds move dramatically upwards without any corresponding on-field performance changes. Initially undervalued, Banks is now considered a top prospect, reflecting the unpredictable nature of draft projections.

• Simon Hunter [25:44]: "He was minus 1200 to go top 10 at a certain book... the movement's insane and nothing has happened."

• Greg Rosenthal [27:33]: "He didn't block anyone like this. What are we doing?"

4. Shemar Stewart: High Athleticism Meets Low Production

Analyzing Defensive Ends

Shemar Stewart, a defensive end from Texas A&M, exemplifies the dilemma teams face: a player with exceptional athleticism but limited college production. Despite high expectations comparable to legends like Myles Garrett, Stewart's actual performance has left scouts questioning his draft value.

• Chad Millman [27:06]: "If the Bears draft Shemar Stewart, I am going to freaking lose it."

• Daniel Jeremiah [29:23]: "When you do hit on the right type of potential, it's like you got an all-timer, all-pro."

5. Betting Strategies and Key Bets

Navigating the Draft Betting Landscape

The hosts and guests discuss various betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of identifying value bets amidst the volatile draft environment. Key bets highlighted include:

• Kelvin Banks Over Pick 7.5: Initially at 13.5, moving to 7.5 at even money.

  • Greg Rosenthal [35:08]: "Kelvin Banks Jr over pick seven and a half at Even Money."

• Ted McMillan Over Pick 12.5: Positioned with a 50% chance to land with the Cowboys.

  • Greg Rosenthal [35:08]: "Ted McMillan over pick 12 and a half at plus 160."

• Under 2.5 Quarterbacks in First Round: Reflecting the overall downturn in quarterback draft positions.

  • Simon Hunter [38:12]: "If I had to bet it, I'd probably say under two and a half."

• Will Campbell's Unders: Asserts that despite his rise, his arm strength concerns make a top-tier pick unlikely.

  • Greg Rosenthal [35:08]: "I got Will Johnson Under SP pick 24 and a half."

6. Insights on Draft Class Quality

Evaluating the 2025 Class

A recurring theme is the perceived weakness of the current quarterback class and the overall grade distribution across the draft. The hosts argue that the best players are rising to the top despite the class's general weaknesses, leading to unusual draft dynamics.

• Greg Rosenthal [10:24]: "This class is so fun... you can get really good guys at pick 42, 45."

• Daniel Jeremiah [31:25]: "There are so many teams you wouldn't be shocked like the Jets taking Sanders at 7."

Conclusion

The episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the 2025 NFL Draft, highlighting the volatility and unpredictability that define this year's selection process. With key players like Ashton Genti and Shador Sanders experiencing significant draft position shifts, and offensive tackle Kelvin Banks emerging unexpectedly, the discussion underscores the complexities teams face in making informed draft decisions. The hosts and guests emphasize strategic betting approaches to navigate the draft's uncertainties, offering listeners valuable insights whether they're casual fans or avid bettors.

Notable Quotes:

• Chad Millman [18:26]: "How are we making any decisions here with any confidence?"

• Simon Hunter [10:47]: "It just seems to be the consensus."

• Daniel Jeremiah [29:23]: "When you do hit on the right type of potential, it's like you got an all-timer, all-pro."

• Greg Rosenthal [35:08]: "Kelvin Banks Jr over pick seven and a half at Even Money."

Final Thoughts

For those keen on understanding the nuances of the 2025 NFL Draft, this episode of "The Favorites" offers an engaging and detailed exploration of player prospects, betting strategies, and the broader implications for NFL teams. Whether you're a sports enthusiast or a dedicated bettor, the insights shared provide valuable perspectives on what promises to be a highly dynamic draft season.