Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Episode: The Favorites - NFL Draft Betting with Thor Nystrom

Release Date: April 23, 2025
Hosts: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Guest: Thor Nystrom

Introduction

In this engaging episode of The Favorites, presented by Bet365 and part of the Volume Podcast Network, hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve deep into the intricacies of the 2025 NFL Draft alongside special guest Thor Nystrom. Thor, a renowned draft analyst obsessed with ranking prospects, brings his expertise to the table, providing listeners with comprehensive insights into draft betting strategies and player evaluations.

Thor Nystrom’s 500 Prospect Rankings

Thor Nystrom introduces his ambitious project: ranking 500 NFL prospects, which is double the standard number of draft spots. This extensive ranking system allows Thor to provide a more detailed analysis and better insight into both drafted players and undrafted free agents (UDFA).

Thor Nystrom [07:37]: "Because I love it. I guess would be number one and then number two. I mean, like, the reason that I construct the board that big is because when I was a kid... it always frustrated me because by the time we get to the fourth round or so... all the names are crossed off."

This dedication stems from his childhood frustration with limited draft boards, driving him to create a more comprehensive resource for football enthusiasts.

The Importance and Challenges of Player Comparisons

A significant portion of the discussion centers around the use of player comparisons ("comps") in draft analysis. Chad expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of comps, arguing that they often compare young, undeveloped players to established stars, which can be unrealistic.

Chad Millman [09:14]: "The one thing I hate... the player comparisons weigh too much on established players who may not reflect the potential of these young prospects."

Simon Hunter echoes this sentiment but also recognizes the entertainment value of comps, highlighting the love-hate relationship fans have with this practice.

Simon Hunter [10:14]: "It's, it's, it's why football's so stupid. Chad, these people need to fill air time and to compare a guy who is what, 20, 21 to a hall of Famer."

However, Thor defends his approach, emphasizing the need for realistic and relatable comparisons to help audiences understand the prospects' potential trajectories.

Thor Nystrom [11:05]: "I try to be as realistic as I can with those comps while keeping it... So, so I hope that criticism that you guys have of comps in general, I hope when you look through my board you feel like I've addressed that."

Highlighting Key Prospects

Thor shares examples of his player comparisons, showcasing both his hits and misses to illustrate the complexity of draft predictions.

• Lamar Jackson vs. Michael Vick:
  Thor considers Lamar Jackson comparable to Michael Vick, noting both players' mobility and playmaking abilities.

  Thor [13:35]: "I would say Lamar Jackson as a top five overall player in his class and I comped him to right-handed Michael Vick... There's enough similarities there and a very unique player coming into the league."

• Worst Comp – Josh Rose:
  Acknowledging errors, Thor admits misranking Josh Rose, demonstrating the inherent uncertainties in draft predictions.

  Thor [14:25]: "I ranked Josh Rose in first overall so I can't really... Yeah, I'll take my flowers for Jackson."

Draft Betting Strategies and Predictions

The conversation shifts to actionable betting strategies for listeners looking to capitalize on draft uncertainties. Thor emphasizes the unpredictability of the 2025 draft, forecasting a night filled with unexpected picks and numerous trades.

Thor Nystrom [35:29]: "It's not going to be chalk... I don't think this is going to be predictable at all the way that this class is constituted."

He highlights specific players and scenarios, such as Travis Hunter as the top overall pick and the potential for Shadir Sanders to be a significant contender, advising listeners to be cautious with over/under bets.

Thor [20:27]: "I would nibble on the under."

Quarterback Outlook

Quarterbacks are a focal point, with Thor and Chad discussing the prospects of Baker Mayfield versus Jordan Love. Thor suggests a cautious approach, considering team dynamics and coaching influences that could impact a quarterback's performance and draft position.

Thor [38:45]: "I had dirt going 21 to the Steelers... I would nibble on the under."

Additionally, Thor identifies Jalen McCarthy as a strong contender, backed by his collegiate performance and endorsement from Jim Harbaugh.

Thor [28:30]: "This kid is ready to play. Jim Harbaugh... I am McCarthy number three overall on my board."

Potential Trades and Market Movements

Thor anticipates a flurry of trades during the draft, driven by the unique composition of the 2025 draft class. He references past drafts where quarterback classes sparked significant trading activity and expects similar dynamics this year.

Thor [36:31]: "I think this sets up for more trades during the draft."

He also touches on the strategic wait-and-see approach of NFL teams amidst the uncertainty, suggesting that patience may pay off as teams react to unfolding draft scenarios.

Thor [37:00]: "There's a lot of scenarios we haven't seen before... These things are going to open up these possibilities we haven't seen before."

Final Thoughts and Listener Engagement

Closing the discussion, Chad praises Thor's thorough analysis, encouraging listeners to heed his insights.

Chad Millman [43:19]: "Thor Nystrom Fantasy Life Matthew Friedman is right. You crushed this. Great job."

Thor expresses gratitude, emphasizing the collaborative spirit of the discussion.

Thor Nystrom [43:58]: "Appreciate it. Thank you so much. Chad, awesome to join."

Conclusion

This episode of The Favorites offers a deep dive into the 2025 NFL Draft with expert analysis from Thor Nystrom. Listeners gain valuable insights into draft betting strategies, player evaluations, and the unpredictable nature of this year's draft class. Thor's comprehensive 500 prospect rankings and balanced approach to player comparisons provide a robust framework for understanding the complexities of NFL Draft betting.

For those looking to navigate the uncertainties of the draft with informed strategies, this episode serves as an essential guide, blending expert opinions with actionable betting advice.

Notable Quotes:

• Thor Nystrom [07:37]: "Because I love it... why doesn't someone have a bigger big board than this?"
• Chad Millman [09:14]: "The player comparisons weigh too much on established players who may not reflect the potential of these young prospects."
• Simon Hunter [10:14]: "It's why football's so stupid... we love it."
• Thor Nystrom [11:05]: "I try to be as realistic as I can with those comps while keeping it relatable."
• Thor Nystrom [35:29]: "It's not going to be chalk... this class is constituted."
• Chad Millman [43:19]: "You crushed this. Great job."

Listeners Interested in NFL Draft Betting:

• Follow Thor Nystrom’s 500 Prospect Rankings: Available through Fantasy Life.
• Engage with The Favorites Podcast: Available on Action Network YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and other platforms.
• Responsible Betting Reminder: Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help at 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa.