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- [00:00]
Greg Rosenthal
What's up everyone? It's Greg Rosenthal and I'm teaming up with the King of Spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs mock drafts to my top 101 free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents starting on March 6th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
- [00:40]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live from my Tommy John home studio and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:00]
Simon Hunter
Chad, how we doing?
- [01:02]
Chad Millman
We are so good right now because there has been a lot of activity around the Chicago Bears during the trade season, the free agency season. I feel like the Bears have put themselves in a position to be very competitive. We're going to dig in on that. Plus whatever, whatever team you root for and whatever they've been doing, I don't know, they don't really tend to make any noise during the off season or be as strategic as a team like the Bears. So we can dig in on that and everything else that's happening in the NFL with he may be one of our top five favorite colleagues at the Action headquarters. At least top 10. He's the co host of both the Action Network podcast and the Fantasy Flex. He joins us for Convince Me on Sundays during the NFL season. He has long been a brother, a nemesis, a friend, all those things wrapped into one because he is a riddle. You can hear him talking all things NFL betting, fantasy free agency, draft all year round. A perennial Fantasy Pros Top 10 NFL Player Projectionist, his name one of the Action Network OGs, Chris Raybon.
- [02:24]
Chris Raybon
That was quite the intro. What's up?
- [02:27]
Chad Millman
I was feeling it.
- [02:28]
Chris Raybon
Glad to be back with you guys. I got to know how to follow up that Chad intro.
- [02:31]
Chad Millman
You're going to come on. You're going to be smart. You're going to give us some informed takes. You're going to make me feel better about what the Bears are doing. You might help me make some futures bets. We're going to be great today. That's what today is about. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet$5. Sign up using promo code Favorites Deposit$10 Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, fees, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms Conditions restrictions apply before we get into NFL trades NFL free Agency Another reminder. Officially RSVP for our free Favorites Live show event in Chicago, my hometown. This will be for the Elite Eight March Madness games on Saturday, March 29th at Joe's on Weed, famously known as Joe's on Weed. Free event, three drinks, free live show with college basketball betting experts Stuckey and three Man Weave. Obviously, Simon and I will be there as well. RSVP to reserve your spot by clicking the link in the episode's description. Or you can just google the Favorites Live Event Chicago. Be sure to RSVP Simon, I know that my dad is so excited to come to this event. He's jealous that your family has been coming to our Favorites events for years because they've been in New Jersey and Philadelphia and easy to get to. My dad's freaking out. He can't wait to get there.
- [04:37]
Simon Hunter
Honestly, can't we wait either? I'll be honest. Like it's you probably the same feeling I do is that you go through this winter mode and you not that you're depressed, but you need sunshine and warmth and that first day of like semi spring. I mean I know you had upper Connecticut when it's like 60, 70 degrees out. Yes, you get that air to me that that in the beginning of March Madness is like the best time of year. Like as someone that lives in Northeast, so the fact that we're going Chicago when the weather is getting right and we're gonna be partying with fans of the show and just being around other gamblers and watching March Madness, it's the best. So yeah, I'm really looking forward to it.
- [05:13]
Chad Millman
I am too. Obviously I love Chicago's. It truly is like just brings such joy to my heart to be in my hometown. So I'm excited to get there. One of my buddies listened to Tuesday's show and he loves these his name is Andy and he loves these story episodes that we do. He was so in love with Matt Mitchell. He was so in love with Matt Mitchell's questions and his honesty. And the story about how Matt proposed to his wife at a casino. He texted me. He's like, I am the president of the Matt Mitchell fan club. I cannot wait to meet him at the event. So even Matt Mitchell is going to get some love and he'll be there in his, you know, Masters Green Blazer. All right, let's get into it. Feel like we're making Rayburn jealous. He might want to come. Fellas, look, it has been crazy. DK Metcalf going to the Steelers. Justin Fields going to the Jets. Sam Darnold to Seattle. Gino Smith going to the Raiders. Daniel Jones going to the Colts. You know, Stafford is staying in la. Devonte Adams is going to la. The Eagles have been offloading the Josh Allen extension. All of this, all of this has been happening. Right. Rayon, let me start with you. The top two free agent signings, SL trades people are not talking enough about and why.
- [06:45]
Chris Raybon
I think it's. I think you got to start with the team that lost the super bowl to Kansas City Chiefs signing Jalen Moore to play, presumably their left tackle position. You know, we saw all the issues that they had going up against that Eagles pass rush and you know, then they end up losing Joe Tuney, they trade him. So they kind of made a bet, you know, on their other two interior linemen and Moore, who's who played really well like last year. There was really no drop off last couple of years when he subbed in for Trent Williams in San Francisco. So if they can, if he can keep that up, that would solve just a major issue for the Kansas City Chiefs. That was probably the difference between them, you know, being in position, at least keeping it a game in, in that three peat and not. And then kind of a related situation, I would say like another one is, is Laramie Tunsil getting traded to the Washington Commanders. You know, as good as Jaden Daniels can move around, they're still in the division with the Eagles, but the Eagles lost some guys on their defensive line, so that kind of tilts the power a little bit too. So I thought those two, those two moves. Offensive line, no. You know, no, no sexy wide receivers, quarterbacks. We're going straight to the offensive line.
- [08:00]
Chad Millman
You know, it's interesting. Obviously, Simon, you and I talk about offensive line and defensive line being so powerful when it comes to looking at these teams, handicapping these teams. What did you see Ray Ban in more you say there was no drop off from Trent Williams. It's not like the Niners went five deep at running back this year, right? It seemed like every single week one of their guys was getting hurt. And I think it was. Who was the guy? Isaac Gutierrez, the. From ucla. Like, even he was like, in that running scheme, doing amazingly well. What was so good about Moore that makes you feel like there wasn't a drop off? What did you see? What were the numbers?
- [08:45]
Chris Raybon
So the way I'll put it is, let's think of a team that has a really good offensive line. The Philadelphia Eagles. We know how good they can run, right? But. And Simon could attest to this. When they brought in Johnson, like the other Johnson, for. For a couple games at tackle, you know, he couldn't. He was not playing well at all. Whereas when you looked at Moore like I was kind of knocking down San Francisco's run game each and every week, I was. I was, you know, upping their pressure rate, and it really just didn't happen. Over the past two seasons, he's played about 500 total snaps, and that's. That's really the question mark. But only two sacks allowed. Four more. Only five in his entire career on about a thousand total snaps. And the big thing is he can. He's a swing tackle, but mostly left tackle. So I think that's really important. You know, that left tackle spot which is so crucial for the Chiefs, and then because you lost tuning, now you don't even have that, or you traded them, you don't have that option. So I. They're making it a big bet on more. His. His PFF pass block grade has gone up each of the last three seasons. He was a 73.1 last year, which is very, very good. And I. I just think that if he plays like he played especially last year, in kind of abbreviated snaps, you know, little under 300 snaps, I just think that's a huge upgrade for the Chiefs because they had that dominant interior line with Joe Tuney, you know, Jones and Humphrey, and they. I mean, excuse me, Trey Smith and Humphrey and they really. It didn't. It didn't show through like you had. Your running game was really struggling down the stretch, especially Pacheco, and against good pass rushes, Mahomes was still getting sacked and being forced into bad decisions. So it's obvious that that tackle spot is huge for the Chiefs. So they kind of made a bet on that. You know, the money's getting a little bit tighter even though the cap has risen just because of, you know, what. Who what they're paying to some of their stars. So I just think that's, that's going to be such a big move and if it doesn't go right, they'll, they'll probably be in trouble.
- [10:59]
Chad Millman
Simon. It's an annual tradition. People will forget about the Chiefs. People will not want to bet on the Chiefs. People will overlook the Chiefs even though The Chiefs are 7 to 1 right now after the Eagles to win the Super bowl plus 700 along with the Ravens, just, just ahead of the Bills. Do you agree with this idea from Raybon?
- [11:24]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I like in the sense that I think just like most years we'll be able to get great value on the Chiefs when we bet them in October to win the super bowl, that this whole line is going to need some time to get it together. They'll drop one or two games, maybe lose a game to the Raiders in week two. Everyone jumps off ship, me and you. Chad, always the wiser, will just patiently wait and get them at what, 12 to 1, 13 to 1. That's usually how it goes. But you, yeah, for me, you know, I, I love the offseason these moves because it is the classic. One man's trash is another man's treasure. And a lot of these moves are just trash to trash, right? It's like, are the jets, the jets really get better by getting Justin Fields? No, those fans have been through hell. They're excited about it because they're going from an old 40 year old man to a young great athlete in his 20s. And they're hoping that maybe they can find a spark with Justin Fields in this team. So if it's really fun this time of year and for me it's all about the betting angle. Right, Chad? And that's what this show is about. And you know, a week ago I gave out, I love the Rams 28 to 1. They go out get Devonte Adams. 49ers have just basically getting all the guys off the ship. They're just cutting all the old guys trying to get young. The rams are now 20 to 1 for Super bowl odds. So that's a big movement based off what the 49ers have done and what the Rams themselves have done. So that's, to me, that's great because I love, you know, I just love getting good value. And it's like, okay, we got a great number on the Rams and it's keeping. I think it's going to keep dropping because I don't know who's going to be betting the 49ers. Other than professional betters. Right. The public to me is going to be totally off this 49ers team just because I think anyone, anyone rationally would think they'd miss their window. Right. They're getting rid of. They're all pro four fullback. They're getting rid of Debo, which you can say Debo's kind of missed it. That's fair. But he's still important to their offense. Right now it is all on Ayuk and a second year player and a wide receiver. So it's, it's really interesting what's happening with these two teams in the Rams, the 49ers, because all you're hearing right now with the 49ers is that they're gonna have to pay Purdy. And they're fighting behind closed doors because Purdy's saying, I think I'm elite. And they're saying, well, the town around you, elite, we don't think you are. So we're not going to pay you $50 million. So is that a lot of drama Chad is going to carry into the season? Because I know you were in on the 49. I'm not. Right. I like the Ram side of it. So I think those are two very, very unique teams where everything feel like it's been negative this offseason for the 49ers, where things have been really positive for this Rams team. And then, you know, to go to your Bears team, I, I mean, I know you were just pointing to talk about it. I can't get over it. Like the fact they addressed the interior line in such a great way. Right. Getting the best center that was available, addressing left guard and right guard. I. We talked about last year. I told you, I think interior now in the offensive line is more important than exterior. I really think there's been a switch in the NFL where it's more important to have a really good left guard and right guard than is a left tackle and right tackle. Even more so with an offense like you, Chad, where Caleb, he can, he can mess up when there's rush up the middle if he gets pushed to the outside. That's where we've seen the magic with Caleb Williams. Like his, his movement on the outside once he gets out the pocket's brilliant. It's inside the pocket. That's been a struggle for him. Right. When he gets that pressure up the middle and he gets happy feet, that's been a problem. Ben Johnson came in day one and went to your GM and told him that's what I want to do so. I love it because this year has been different than last year. Last year was all about Derek Henry Saquon, right? These sexy running backs trying to add them to a team that's missing one piece. Where this year it really feels like it's been not just boring, but more about address the interior offensive line, address the D line because of what the Eagles did in the super bowl where we have a little bit of mixed springding of dk and you know, Adams, he's these number one receivers switching teams. But to me, this, this offseason has really been about addressing these teams D lines and offensive line. So I'm loving every move the Bears team has made so far.
- [15:19]
Chad Millman
Yeah, look, I'm glad you brought it up. I wasn't going to open with you.
- [15:24]
Simon Hunter
I bet you are.
- [15:24]
Chad Millman
I didn't want to be the homer.
- [15:27]
Simon Hunter
But you can't deny it. It's incredible.
- [15:29]
Chad Millman
Look, I love, I love that Raybond two top plays were offensive tackles. I love that one of your key points is talking interior line. I agree with you. And I don't just agree with you because of what we saw with Caleb Williams most there. Obviously teams are trying to play their young quarterbacks as quickly as possible. The biggest challenge for young quarterbacks is when they get pressured up the middle, when they have pressure in their face and they have to run to the edge. But they might not have time because it's so overwhelming to have three guys coming at you from the middle of the off from the middle of the defensive line who are so much faster than you are used to. When you've been playing in college, you can't get to the edge so you just keep running backwards. Right? We saw this with Caleb Williams. Everything you just said is true. Before we get to the Bears, my quibble with what you're saying about the Niners is Debo is gone. Fine. He was trending down. Brandon Ayuk is back. He was the primary target for Brock Purdy anyways. So it's a wash, right? You might lose some something, you know, because you're losing a high profile fullback who was an important part of your scheme. But you're going to get back Christian McCaffrey. So you're getting back to your most important playmakers and you're still going to have Kittle at tight end. So I don't worry so much about the Niners. In fact, I might buy into the Niners again if their odds drop because I think you might still be getting value on there. Now for the Bears, the Number one play for me. Drew Dahlman signing the center from the Falcons. Simon, how many times over the past two years, whether it was Arthur Smith or the new scheme that the Falcons were running, did we talk about Drew Dahlman and Chris Lindstrom, the right guard for the Falcons? They were so dominant. When you look at Raybon talks about their PFF grades. Right, the PFF grades. Lindstrom and Dalman were so highly rated by PFF over the past couple seasons because of their ability to control the line of scrimmage and create a scheme that allows the Falcons to be so effective in the running game. I can't believe the Bears now have Joe Tunney and Drew Dman as part of their interior line. Jonah Jackson, I think the jury's out. Is he going to be a Pro bowl player? Is he going to be a guy who's sort of off the roster last year essentially for the Rams, I don't know. But Drew Dman, Joe Tuni, that's, I mean, wow. And so we, we backed up a truck for Grady Jarrett. We got a grown ass man now playing in the middle of the defensive line. Like, holy tamale. Go ahead.
- [18:20]
Simon Hunter
I was going to piggyback off. What you're saying is that it's year one of what you expect to be two to three years of the right direction, right? Like, this is just the beginning. We don't want to get too far ahead of our skis like Nick Wright and pick the Bears go to super bowl this season. But it's, it's. You can't deny it, right? These are the exact moves you wanted to see, right? You didn't want to see them go get another wide receiver. You didn't want to see them go out and sign. You know, as much as I love Milton Williams, his contract's atrocious. Like, no one should be paying Milton Williams the amount of money he just received from the Patriots. Like, that's the type of move that you guys could have made and been like, okay, same old Bears just trying to make a splash. But no, it's all logical, smart, and I'm sure Chris feels the same way where it's like, you know, we like to. On you and your Bears, Chad. It's. It's hard to on them this offseason where they've really nailed it. This at this point, yeah, it's all.
- [19:11]
Chris Raybon
About Caleb Williams now. Like, you know, last year there was a lot of optimism too, but they, the team, you know, to your point, Simon, it was just not quite built the right way. It was too many flashy like fantasy video game type moves where, you know, the wide receiving core are great but you had a rookie quarterback, you know, not great coaches. So it really comes down to, to Caleb because I think, I think we know what Ben Johnson is offensively now could turn. Maybe he's one of those coaches that when he, you know, gets more responsibilities, he might struggle in certain aspects. But I think ultimately Caleb Williams at times was really bad last year and at other times he was really good. So this year he's going to have no excuse with what they put around him offensively in terms of the coaching staff and the offensive line.
- [19:57]
Chad Millman
Well, look, you could have looked at it a couple different ways. The Bears last year decided we can't do all of it at once. We went after the talent that we thought was available. They resigned. DJ Moore, he came on at certain points at the end of the year, started to get more comfortable. They went after Keenan Allen. He probably won't be with the team this year. They drafted Roma Dunes a right. They went after sort of the best players that were available at the time. Didn't overspend on the offensive line. They kept ibrahe. Everybody thought that was a mistake, but maybe I don't think they were, you know, they were playing 3D chess here and thinking, okay, we're going to keep uber flu because he's only going to last one more year and then we're going to get Ben Johnson. You don't want to waste a year of Caleb Williams. They did the best they could in the second year. They're being very focused on the offensive line. Before we came on the air we were joking about like inept teams. The Cowboys have had an inept, unremarkable, questionable, head scratching off season where for the umpteenth year in a row they are not spending. They're not willing to sign players. Rico Dowdle just signed a new deal with another team. One year, three million. He's going to be better than any running back the Cowboys are putting money on and they could have had him for nothing. Right? The Bears have historically been a team that would not go all in on coaches. They went all in on Ben Johnson. They have gone all in on Grady Jarrett. They have gone all in on Drew Dahlman. They have. You can't say the Bears are not spending this year. I'm as shocked as anybody. I think it's amazing, just amazing. But this will not be the year. Simon will not be the year like two years ago where I over invest in the Chicago Bears like we did with Justin Fields. Let's talk about Fields for a second. The NFL is kind of about one thing right now. As dynamic as a player can be at the quarterback position, if he can't convert the easy throws on third down, if you can't rely on the quarterback to execute in the four or five times a game when he has to make the throw, you can't have a winning team. If we talk about free agent signings and trades, people are talking too much about but won't matter. Justin Fields to the jets for me is right at the top of the list. Simon, agree or disagree? You have an opposing view. Do you have another one to add to this list?
- [22:32]
Simon Hunter
I'll disagree in a sense that I just believe in quarterbacks and taking the upside and doesn't matter what they've done other places we've learned now over the years that the hope is you find the Baker, Sam Darnold type of year, right? You're always going to believe that if I have the right coaching, put the right pieces around these guys that we can make this work, right? Because there's a reason that Justin Fields was a top pick, right? His athleticism is off the charts. It's just what you talked about, his check down passes, like when it's, when he's getting a little pressure in his face, he can't complete a four yard pass. That's a major issue. Like you're saying there's a reason he's not starting the league. It's basically that it's pretty simple. It comes down to it. That's really the issue with him. And you know, when I'm breaking this down and looking at his film and why the jets are making this move, they have a vision for it. They have a vision for what they're going to do. Now I'm on the other side where I think they might be one of the worst teams in all football, this jets team. So the fact they're making this move, giving them a two year deal, maybe in their mind they're just like, well good, we'll get a high draft pick next year and go get our quarterback for real and then we'll just have them next year on the one year deal and he can be a nice little bridge gap quarterback because I'm in the same camp as you, Chad, where it's like when you look at their division right now they're in fourth and it's, it feels like by a lot, right? They're, they're way behind Josh Allen, Tua and now the hope is Drake may take that next step. So, yeah, for me and you, I feel like it's going to be pretty easy bet taking their under this jets team and just everything they've done this off season is just like, could it happen?
- [24:00]
Chris Raybon
Right?
- [24:00]
Simon Hunter
We saw it happen last year, the Vikings, sure. Anything can happen in football. Sam Darnold could have a career year. Justin Fields could come over, come out, have a career year. I bet you he doesn't. And I'm willing to put money on it. So that's, it's, it's pretty interesting. That was their big move and the jets fans are happy, but, you know, they're just like Cowboys fans, man. They're just, they've been through it. Like, you know, the Cowboys, like you just started like talking about how bad they've been and how they haven't really done anything in this offseason. It's like, you know that station Washington made it last. Last year, Washington made it to the conference championship game. The Cowboys are the only team, the nfc that have not been the conference championship game in like 30 years. That doesn't even sound real if you're a fan of football, just how dominant they were in the 90s. So, yeah, I get why their fans are pissed off and I'm honestly shocked that it's not talked about more in media right now about how the Cowboys are just. Everything they're doing is wrong, right? Not signing Michael Parsons before all these other DNS just got paid big money. Everything they do is just wrong. So, yeah, I'm right there with you. Where it's like, you know, the Justin Fields thing, not. Doesn't move the needle for me, but I get why they did it because it's like, what else are you going to do? There's. That's, that's the problem with this league. There's only 32 quarterbacks and we choke. We joke all the time. Chad, you don't want that. Bottom 10 quarterbacks, they're all the same. They're all interchangeable. So, yeah, really, really tough spot for the jets. But there is some upside in the play, so I get where they're doing it.
- [25:25]
Chad Millman
Raybone, you're shaking your head affirmatively. I should note when Simon is saying the jets may be one of the worst teams.
- [25:34]
Chris Raybon
Yeah, I think. And this extends to really, I would say you're asking just more generally, what is the, the signing or signings that people are talking too much about? That's not going to mean anything. I think it's just all this veteran quarterback, musical chairs. I think the most important quarterback went to the most important place he could be, and that was Matthew Stafford staying with the Rams because we already saw that he can win a Super bowl at this stage in his career with this general iteration of the Rams. You know, that's, that's the, that's what we've seen. So everyone else, you know, Raiders getting Geno Smith, I'm gonna fade them. The Seahawks getting Sam Darnold, gonna fade them. Jets getting Justin Fields, gonna fade them. Who else I'm leaving out, you know, like wherever Aaron Rodgers goes.
- [26:29]
Chad Millman
Daniel Jones.
- [26:31]
Chris Raybon
Yeah, I mean, yeah, they need Daniel Jones is like, statistically anyway, it's hilarious. He was just so much better of a thrower of, of the football than Anthony Richardson last year that it's comical. But yeah, just another example of like this year. Simon kind of alluded to it earlier. You know, usually quarterback is the most important position, you know, in terms of betting in the point spread and all that. But it seemed like last year the most important move was moves were running backs. We saw the Ravens and, you know, competing for a title with Henry and then of course Saquon and the Eagles end up winning it. And this year just. It's like all these quarterback musical chairs and nothing really moves a needle. Like even wherever Aaron Rodgers goes, to me, doesn't really move the needle because all the teams that are the true contenders and our guy Evan Abrams talks about this all the time. Like if you kind of look about, it's about 12 to 1. It's where the cutoff is. If you can't get to that 12 to one spot in terms of super bowl odds by the time the season starts, you're pretty much out of the running. And Burrow is probably the quarterback that didn't make it last year that's in the running. But Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, we know the guys hurts Lamar. These teams, the teams that are going to contend have a quarterback. The Rams are going to be there, I think, and all these other guys just doesn't mean much. And I don't think this rookie class is particularly strong either. So everyone wants to talk about quarterbacks and you know, even Metcalf to the Steelers because that's kind of quarterback adjacent where great. It's like they have, they have, they. They always are going to have a high floor and maybe that raised their ceiling a little bit. But, you know, Seahawks went. Won 10 games with, with, with good receivers last year and a mediocre quarterback and didn't even Couldn't even make the playoffs. And the Steelers are in a competitive division as well. So I just think all these quarterback moves or get talked about a little too much, and I don't really think they're going to change who we see in that, in that Final Four.
- [28:34]
Chad Millman
Could not agree more. The Steelers are interesting though, because, like, if it's not going to be Aaron Rodgers and Raybon, you've been writing for seven years that Aaron Rodgers was on the downside of his career and using really thoughtful stats and analysis to back it up. We saw a lot of it last year. I think a lot of people are going to be enamored with a 3, 4 game stretch where all of a sudden he looked healthy, maybe was getting a little bit better production, you know, with the four or five times they saw him make the exact throw that only Aaron Rodgers can make. And all of a sudden he's going to pair with Mike Tomlin and hit DK Metcalf down the field and that's going to be the difference. I'm not seeing it. Yeah, just not a thing. It's not a thing. It's not a thing, Simon. It's not a thing.
- [29:34]
Simon Hunter
I like the move, though, for them. And, you know, we'll give some flowers to our guy, Peter King, where I told you two months ago, Peter King said that he thought Roger was going to go to the Steelers. And it's like, clearly the Steelers have been putting out there, they like him that long ago for Peter King, who doesn't say much in the media to come out and say that. So, you know, that was a big deal to me. I think it's another spot of, yeah, they're not gonna win a Super bowl because of it. But I feel like Chris has nailed it. Like, we're not betting the under on their win total this year. Like, that's the exact quarterback they get in there to get, somehow get to nine or ten wins. Like this is the perfect match for them. And if he doesn't go there, it sucks for them because they're probably still going to get the seven wins somehow. Doesn't matter who the quarterback is going to be, even if it is, you know, Mason, Rudolph, whoever they bring in there.
- [30:22]
Chad Millman
But.
- [30:26]
Simon Hunter
It'S the timeline. Magic Man. It's just crazy how he can just take trash and make it work. It's the same reason Russell Wilson is radioactive right now. No one signed him, right? No one. No one actually believes him. No one understands how that man won so many games. That Steelers team last year, it's all part of that Steelers magic. So yeah, going back to these different teams and how they run their organization, there's just some teams, Chad, they're just dumb and they overthink it. I mean, the biggest one that jumps out to me has to be the Giants, right this offseason, Giants just sign Slayton a wide receiver, 2 to 39. $38 million. Three years. 38 million. That's the same amount they passed on Payne Saquon the year before. So it's like none of these things make sense when you really break it down to its core because these teams just overthink stuff. And like we talk all the time, the salary cap is just going to keep going up. So people will be like, did you see how much so and so got paid? Yeah, it looks stupid on paper, but it's like the seller cap just keeps going up. That's why. You know, as an Eagles fan, I think this is the first offseason of my life that we are the team that is just losing people left and right while not bringing anybody in. And honestly, it's the greatest feeling in the world. It's like, holy, we are the best. One of the best drafting teams in football that all we're so good. All we can do is sign our own guys and we have to let other guys walk where even last year our two super bowl winning moves were Zack Braun and Saquon Barkley. Two free agent signings at this time of year. So to me, that's for a lot of teams out there where like, you know, we poo poo for agent signings. Does matter. If you have the right GM and making the right moves, these are the type of things that could set you up for Super Bowl. But the flip side, you can set your team back four or five years in a really bad fre move where you're spending all this money. Like Tennessee last year. Think of Tennessee. They spent all that money, Chad, just to be the number one pick. It's just. That's what's so brutal about this time of year. It's like I don't want to. On everyone's team, there are certain teams you look at side out, you're just like, man, this. They're going to be the exact same spot four or five years cutting these guys on these big contracts and it's just, it's just bad money spending. So I don't know how you view it, but I'm. I'm of that mentality of there's some teams that are nailing it like the Bears. And there's other teams. You're just like, this team is going to be spinning their tires for another three, four years. Like New Orleans Saints and a couple other teams.
- [32:42]
Chad Millman
It's clear you and I talked about this a couple weeks ago. It's clear there are franchises you just don't want to be a fan of right now. The Saints, the Browns, the Titans. Like, these are teams that are flailing. They don't know what they're doing. They don't have the personnel in their executive suites to be making the decisions to help put them in a position to be successful five years down the road. Howie Roseman, I feel like he is sitting in his office in Philadelphia. He's looking at his board and feeling so good about the position he has put his team in. Because, yeah, they've lost C.J. gardner, Johnson, they are losing Milton Williams. But he has loaded his defensive line, he has loaded his defensive backfield. He's got Cooper DeJean, right? He's got Quinion Mitchell. Like, he has made such good moves. And he's probably looking at this thinking, I know how to draft. I know what I'm looking for in a player. I will be able to backfill these roles as people price themselves out and get their big mega deals elsewhere, and we will be totally fine. I feel like the Eagles are flying high.
- [33:58]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, he didn't hesitate either, which I give tons of credit to Howie, where he paid the guys, where other teams like the Bengals. I mean, talk about disaster, right? Like, is they didn't. They couldn't get the deal done last year with Chase. Now it's going to be another extra 20, 30 million on top of whatever he was asking last year. T. Higgins, I don't even think whatever they throw to him, I think he's going to walk regardless. He fucking hates the Bengals. Like, the fact they tagged him again and someone put up a great stat of Joe Burrow and Hertz got a contract in the same off season. The Eagles have spent like 300 million since then on players to resign to their team. The Bengals have spent like 20, 30 million. So it just shows you how stupid these franchises can be where, you know, you just need to make the money work. But I'm with you in the sense that, you know, obviously how he's nailing this offseason. But, you know, we talk all the time. There's moves that teams make that are terrible. Like, we. We had a couple of signings last year of guys that we're paying $20 million to that never touched the field for us. And that's just how it is, right? You're not always going to nail.
- [34:59]
Chad Millman
You don't win them all.
- [35:00]
Simon Hunter
Exactly.
- [35:00]
Chad Millman
And I think not 100%, it's probabilistic.
- [35:04]
Simon Hunter
And people get too obsessed with the misses where it's like, on your team, success is making the playoffs. I know people don't want to hear that, but it really is. I know. It's like, why One more, right? If you're a fan of the Bills and Josh Allen, you're like, take the mvp. I could give two shits about winning the mvp. I won a Super Bowl. Like, I, I get that perspective. But take a deep breath. You could be the Jets. So that's what I always try to tell people. It's like, yeah, you want to win the super bowl with the Bills. Of course. You want to be in nothing irrelevant for 30, 40 years. Like, you want people still talking about Joe Namath. No. Like that's literally living in hell. So that's why I always try to have perspective of this, where it's like, you know, this, this Bill's team, you know, they had a couple moves this offseason that you're like, I don't know what they're doing. Then they come in, they sign that contract with Josh Allen. You're like, that's why they're a great organization, right? They got Josh Allen to take a great deal, left some money on the table to go get other guys. And it's like, that's what great teams do. They don't give Dak Prescott $65 million at the last minute to come play for them. So it's like you really are seeing which teams are going to keep going up and which teams just feel like they're going to keep going down. And that's, that's the most interesting part of the offseason. You kind of, kind of see they're writing on the wall.
- [36:13]
Chad Millman
Simon. Before NFL free agency officially kicks off, fans are treated to an even more exciting period, the legal tampering period. This thrilling two day extravaganza lets teams and agents discuss free agents and agree to terms before deals can legally be signed. And all of that hoopla reminds me of what we do right here during every episode. On behalf of our beloved sponsor, Tommy John. We can't make you change your life for the better, but we can speak directly to you through your phone, through your devices, and offer you the assurances of best in class underwear and casual essentials that only Tommy John can provide. These Ad reads are our legal tampering period. Be your own best representative. Be your own super agent. Agree to terms with Tommy John and relish in the metaphorical signing bonus of unlimited breathable comfort. Simon, why will you be wearing Tommy John in 2025?
- [37:09]
Simon Hunter
Because comfort is king right now.
- [37:11]
Chad Millman
You can shop tommyjohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn.com favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorites I'm just gonna say I feel like that was a stretch in terms of the metaphor, you know, wasn't as easy. Simon.
- [37:33]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [37:33]
Chad Millman
What are you laughing at?
- [37:34]
Simon Hunter
Just. I love Matt Mitchell and his comments. He just wrote feedback as a gift. He's the best.
- [37:38]
Chad Millman
That's right.
- [37:38]
Chris Raybon
Wow.
- [37:38]
Chad Millman
Oh, that's right. Yeah. I didn't see that. So, Rayon, I want your take on this. Simon just said there are teams that the goal is to make the playoffs and that there are teams that are perennial, perennially pathetic, like the jets and teams like the Bills, who your goal is to win a title. At what point does your feeling as a fan that making the playoffs is the right thing start to wear thin? That is a lot of blowback on the Steelers right now. Is it enough to just consistently be good and make the playoffs? They want more or are the expectations too high? When is it time to blow it up? And are the Steelers there?
- [38:26]
Chris Raybon
No. So I think the thing that people don't get, and it's frustrating as a fan, when your team is kind of stuck in that, you know, quote unquote purgatory, but it's really like the upper class purgatory if you're making the playoffs every year or finishing with a.500 or better record. I think with the Steelers, it's just really come down to they haven't had the quarterback, and you're not going to. You're not. You could win it because of other guys, but not without a quarterback. You know, like, the Eagles got through a lot of the year. Jalen Hurts. Sometimes he didn't have to do much. A lot of the time, he didn't have to do much. But when it counted, Jalen Hurts was elite. And that's just. That's the Eagles. That. And that speaks to Howie Roseman. The Steelers just haven't really had that. They, you know, they got one with Big Ben. They were in a couple there. And then it just got a lot worse. So the thing about a high floor is if you want a high ceiling, if you're locking in a high floor, then you know your ceiling's going to be higher because, you know, it's correlated. Like at the end of the day, I would much rather be this. Be the Steelers and just be like a quarterback away, you know, every year than kind of have no, you know, dude, like be the, the Giants, who. I think ownership has just meddled ever since the end of. It got really bad at the end of Eli Manning's career after he had won those couple. And then around that benching, the time they benched him for Gino, like everything just unraveled there. And you could see it. The jets have been the same way these last couple of decades. You know, they keep, you know, throwing the same thing at the wall in different ways and just doesn't stick. So I, I don't think the Steel, I think the Steelers are a model organization, but unfortunately this, this is why, you know, Josh Allen got $330 million and we're over here saying, you know, he left money on the table, right? Because that's how much quarterbacks do matter for certain teams. And you know, they, that's how they do matter in general. But for a team like the Steelers, that, that it, it meant everything because that's the difference. You know, they're trotting out Kenny Pickett, Justin Fields, the ghost of Russell Wilson, Mason, Rudolph, like that's, that's why the Steelers aren't going.
- [40:45]
Chad Millman
Doug Hodges.
- [40:46]
Chris Raybon
Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So that's. That, that's, that's, that's really what it is. But yeah, there's teams like we saw with the Giants, they. Joe Shane has no idea what he. Like he makes some moves that turn out good and. But when he starts going through his thought processes and I'm sure this has a lot to do with ownership too, there's things we, we're not seeing, but it's just, it. A lot of these moves just don't. Don't quite make sense to me. And then a lot of them are just kind of fixing other things and you know, even like the, like now you sign Paulson or Debo, but like, what if you don't? Like, I don't. You know, I would want to put myself in position to where if I didn't get a quarterback, like I could just take Hunter and I don't, I don't know if you still do that now. So I guess I just think, I just think there's a lot going on with ownership and that's why the Giants and the jets, you know, we heard Madden ratings and things like that those two teams in particular, that's why you keep seeing them just struggle for the better part of a couple of decades now.
- [41:45]
Chad Millman
Josh Allen got a quarter of a billion dollars guaranteed. Guaranteed.
- [41:52]
Simon Hunter
How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness. There's no fear. No.
- [41:57]
Chad Millman
And by the way, when he can go for a new contract, he's going to be 32 years old. He could make half a billion dollars in real money over the next eight years, guaranteed. Imagine that just from football. Just from football. Football, he could end up with $500 million.
- [42:20]
Simon Hunter
And just from my perspective of like we're talking about the quarterback series, that's the beautiful thing about football is you don't need Josh Allen. Usually Josh Allen doesn't get you in football, right? Like, we've seen it time and time again. These great quarterbacks, it's not their fault, right? Because it is a team sport. But there's so much that goes into it. And that fact that, you know, right now in the NFL, we're in a weird spot, Chad, where we've had a run of dynasties, right? We've had the Chiefs and the Patriots dynasty. So right now, you know, if you want to count Russell Wilson as the start in the league, we have four quarterbacks that are starters that have won Super Bowls in football right now, right? Stafford, Mahomes, Hertz and Russell Wilson. That's really unique. Like, there's 32 teams, there's only four starters.
- [43:00]
Chad Millman
That is an insane stat.
- [43:02]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And like that kind of things I, because I want to be, bring people in perspective of it's so tough to get there and actually do it. Like, you need so much fucking luck. I mean, think about the shape of a football. It's the weirdest shaped ball in all major sports. You don't know which way that fucking thing is going to bounce. Like, you know, I even hang around Eagles fans, how cocky they are talking about all the fumbles we got in the playoffs and how that helped us get to the Super Bowl. It's like they don't know where that ball is going to bounce and you punch that out. Like it's all this random things that add up to them getting to the super bowl and winning it. And obviously, you know, that was a crazy run of they had the most points ever in that super bowl history. Error of points in the playoffs. Right. That was a very unique team. But at the core of football, this why I never get all these different teams and the moves they make. We've had years of Jimmy Garoppolo making it to a fucking Super Bowl. Brock Purdy made it to a Super Bowl. Like, you can make it there with below average quarterbacks that are trying to buy really good talent on their teams. And I think, you know, the greatest team and player ever, in my mind of this example are those Eli Manning giant teams, right? He never made the playoffs and did anything, but he did make it. He won fucking Super Bowls. And that was kind of thing where that team drafted right on their D line. They had Spags, the D coordinator, and then they had Elon, who had that clutch gene with Plaxico, and they had a good run game. All those things add into it, but it's like too many teams want to be perfect, right? They want to make the perfect team, get a top five quarterback and make it all work. You don't need all that in football. Like, there's so much that goes into it. So that's why I think we're in a weird spot right now where these teams are, you know, they're chasing different teams, trying to copy their. What they. How they built their teams out. I told you last year, I had heard from people on the Eagle organization that they were going to copy the 49ers, that, that when they saw what Christian McCaffrey did to that offense, Howie, who has never paid a running back in his whole life, said, I don't fucking care. The NFL has changed. Two high safeties is a real thing. I'm going out there, I'm getting what I think is the best running back in football.
- [45:01]
Chris Raybon
You heard.
- [45:01]
Simon Hunter
I mean, I'm sure you've seen all the conferences. Him talking to Saquon. It's like he literally said to the dude, you're the reason we just won the Super Bowl. Like, you were the difference between that we needed that we didn't have two years ago, and teams out there that wanted to do it this year. There was no running back out there to do that. Now we have this draft coming up where Gentry and there's a couple guys out there that I think are game changers. But you definitely saw this year in the free agency class that teams weren't going to be like, okay, there's a Saquon, there's Derek Henry out there, because there isn't. You've seen a pullback. And like we talked about, they've attacked the offensive line, the defensive lines, because to me, this draft class has really good running backs. So it's going to be interesting. This draft coming up, does Gentry go in the top 10? Do. Do teams reach for him because they think they're a piece away. Your Bears team, Chad, I wouldn't hate them taking him. Like there's certain teams I feel like could add him and they're going to be in the same position as what we've seen. This Eagles team, Detroit, I mean, look what they've done. Getting running backs, right. That's kind of changed the whole organization. So I do think that we're in this, this weird time where people are like so obsessed with quarterbacks like we all are. It's fun. Make a top five top ten list when it really does matter. All these other pieces have been so important. I would love your Chris's view on that if, if he's got a view on these running back classes coming out.
- [46:12]
Chris Raybon
Well, yeah, that's the first thing I was going to bring up was. Yeah, Genty is the favorite now to go to the Chicago Bears, which because they addressed their offensive line, you know, everyone thought they were going to take offensive line. Now they have some options, so. Totally agree. I think like I said, at the end of the day with the Bears, it's going to come down to Cable Williams. That's the guy who has shown it and we know he has a talent, but he hasn't proven it yet. They're like, ask Jacksonville. You know how they're doing with that. So like that's, that's, that's. The Bears have everything around them, I think. But the, the one I was going to bring up since we were talking about Josh Allen and just how important these running backs are in the playoffs, what did the Bills lean on? It wasn't Josh Allen throwing the football. It was James Cook who turned into an absolute monster. And every week it seemed like James Cook was undervalued even in the touchdown market, which is a notoriously inflated market. You know, he was undervalued. And it's because they saw something in James Cook. You know, he got a lot more physical. He had the speed. He can catch it and run and that's a big thing that those three down backs are coming back into vogue a little bit. I know. And then the Bills also had Ty Johnson coming out of nowhere playing really well, made that crazy catch in the. Against the Broncos in the playoffs. So I think running backs are. It kind of got to that low point in a market where I think they had like a conference or a meeting with all them at one point and try to figure out how they can increase their value. Well, I think they have. So the fact that we're talking About Ashton Jensen, as good as he's been, you know, usually those kind of running backs, it's like, all right, you know, they're great in college. And then everyone's still talking about, you know, pick 20, pick 30, second round. Nah, Jenty is like, they're talking about him going fifth, sixth, even. So, yeah, I think the Eagles kind of paved the way with one of the, probably the best GM in the game, giving Saquon Barkley a. A massive deal. And it. It worked out. And, and, and then the Bills, we saw them lean on James Cook even when they had Josh Allen. And every week we're like, where's Cooper? Where's. You know, who's gonna. Where's do King K? Where's all these guys? James Cook and Ty Johnson? So, yeah, and. And Ravens, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry.
- [48:31]
Chad Millman
So, Rayon back. Who do you think is. And Simon, I want you to answer this, too. The Washington Commanders, last year, they. They blew up the league. Jaden Daniels was brilliant, obviously. You mentioned. We started the show talking about Laramie Tunsil going to the Commanders, but what was interesting about the Commanders, obviously, was Jaden Daniel's performance, but their willingness to lean into the analytics in high leverage situations, especially on fourth downs, especially on fourth and 3, 4, 5, in that range, way outside of the red zone, doing it consistently. Explosive plays coming from Jaden Daniels. It's funny, we talk about the NFL. You watch these games and like, every single week, whether it's Rayon Kerner, me, Simon Stucky, we're talking about these games as if they will play out according to sort of methodical pacing, what we expect to be normalized play calling, what we expect to be perfect play, and teams to play in the manner in which the overall stats say they're going to play. It always comes down to the explosive play. It comes down to the fourth down call. It comes down to the deep out. It comes down to the blown coverage, whatever it is. That's why betting is exciting, because all of a sudden you're like, oh, I was only one play away, or, oh, I got this play right. Those are the difference makers when you're talking about betting. Who will be the commanders of this season? The team that leans into the high leverage situations.
- [50:20]
Chris Raybon
I got an answer. I think.
- [50:21]
Chad Millman
Give it to me. It's a fucking podcast. Give me your answer.
- [50:24]
Chris Raybon
Not just. It's not just that. It's. I think they have the talent, too. And think about it like this. Who's been the best team against the spread over the past few years? It's Been the Detroit Lions, right? They've just been, they just been cover machines. The team that I think last year I was sitting here kind of a poor man's Lions, but they have the talent to be just as good. Tampa Bay, Baker Mayfield, interesting dude, that.
- [50:57]
Chad Millman
Was not even Irving could be the.
- [50:59]
Chris Raybon
Next Saquon or somebody like that. They got an offensive line, they got, they got a secondary. They, you know, they took some stabs at pass rush with Reddick and, but. And they got a defensive coach. So you don't worry too much about the defense. Defense has pieces. I mean what, like, what's stopping the Bucks from, from being like the Mayfield Bucks, the in the be for being the Golf Lions who everyone thought was going to be in the super bowl over the Eagles last year. That, that's the team that I think is just severely overlooked.
- [51:30]
Chad Millman
Simon, what do you think of that?
- [51:32]
Simon Hunter
I love it. People are going to hate this because this, this feels like a way too heavy Bears podcast, but I have to go with the Bears. Like this is a team that I, I. All I do is my favorite thing to bet is on second year players, right? And especially quarterbacks making that second year jump. And we've seen it time and time again where it's like guys have all the tools in the world. They have a bad season, people leave them for dead. And then the second year, someone like Caleb Williams should take that next step. The guy has all the talent in the world now. He has some good coaching, an offensive line, a system I think he's going to really thrive in. And again, I hope they get Gentry. Like to me, that would be an insane weapon to add to that team have with Caleb Blooms for the next five to 10 years in that backfield. And you know, this is a team that me and Chad talked at Nazi about it. Last year they were 4 and 2 when they lost at Ha Mary game against the Commanders. Like this was a team that was on a trajectory and we said after they lost, I said this is a young team. We're going to find out a lot about the Chicago team. They're either going to thrive and, you know, bounce back from this or they will collapse under their own weight the rest of the season. And that's what they did. But they ended the season on such a high mark like that. I know it sounds stupid, but that was a huge win for Green Bay against Green Bay and for Caleb Williams in my mind going to the off season because I think he felt what it could be like to be a team that should be beating Green Bay. At Green Bay that can be. Can have these big wins. So this is a team that I love their off season, they're gonna have a last place schedule and it, I think it lines up right for them that, you know, just like last year, everyone's gonna be talking about Detroit, everyone's gonna be talking about Green Bay. And last year we had a lot of people that were coming in on this Bears team for the excitement. It doesn't feel like that as we are here in March, right? There are professionals like me who like the Bears. But I'm saying the general public, I don't turn on ESPN or FS1 all day and all they're talking about is the Bears like they were at this point last year heading into the draft. So that's a team that I am excited to buy low on. I'm going to bet their win total over. I just, I love that. All lines up for the year two bump for Caleb Williams and bringing in such a great offensive mind in Johnson. So it's like I, I can't help myself. Like this is a team I always kind of love secretly just because, you know, me and Chad just always kind of love the Bears team obviously for Chad has his reasons, but we admitted to it. We had a huge whiff on them two years ago with Justin Fields. This feels totally different than Justin Fields Year two where we fell in love with Justin Fields athleticism. In year one, me and Chad bet on that upside and we were. You're betting them 101 win the super bowl. People like that's where we were at them two years ago. I'm in the same spot now. It's like I feel like they're better, they're improved. Am I betting the super bowl futures? No, I think it's like 40 to 1 now in most books that there's no value there at this point. But for them to shock this division and pull it off, I think it's a real thing. Like this is a, this is going to be a legit good team that I don't think enough people are looking into right now because they're what, 5 and 12 last year? I get it. It's just to me, these are the teams I love that bet on the new coach, year two quarterback, whole new offensive line. Like it's, it's all lined up there. Chad for this can take a huge year to step up in this Bears team. So that's, that's definitely a team just like what Chris talked about teams we try to eye for that no one's really talking about Tampa is the same boat no one's talking about even though they won division last year. I feel like it's the same thing for the Bears this coming year. No one's talking about them enough where I think they're going to take a major step that people aren't aware of.
- [54:58]
Chad Millman
Well, look, I'm glad you said it. I didn't want to be the one who said when I when I thought of this question and I put it in the script, my answer to this was going to be the Bears because of Ben Johnson. Right. Like he clearly when he was with the Lions as the play caller was comfortable in these situations that go lean into the analytics and what the probabilistic thinking and what the percentages is not on what the conventional wisdom is that looks like the safer play that that is going to make you comfortable if you miss it. That to me was the answer. I kind of like Ray, but it also felt a little cliche because horse like Ben Johnson, he's the guy I like Raybon's answer too. Matt Mitchell we got to make a note. I feel like we have to do a future episode that is focused a lot on the breaking down of this question and then combining it with will there be too much examination of rules changes and how it made coaches think about fourth down and kicking long field goals versus going forward and then the other half of the field from the impact of the kickoff changes? I want to unpack that there's more meat on the bone teasing a future episode. We'll get Raybon back. Kerner Stuckey, Nick Giffen, Simon Little Roundtable Just making a note. People are going to be excited about that. Give Matt Mitchell your feedback. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF IN IOWA Terms Conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page to discuss March Madness with Jim Root 3 Man Weave Tuesday, 1:30pm Eastern. Download us from Spotify Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate, Review, subscribe, leave us. 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER what's up everyone?
- [57:46]
Greg Rosenthal
It's Greg Rosenthal and I'm teaming up with the King of Spring, Daniel Jeremiah. He requires me to say that we're going to be bringing you 40s and free agents, the only podcast you'll need this NFL draft season. From DJs mock drafts to my top 101, free agents will have it covered for you with all new episodes every Thursday keeping you up to date as we head to the NFL Draft. Listen to 40s and free agents starting on March 6th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast.