Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "The Favorites - NFL Talk with Guest Danny Parkins"

Release Date: April 3, 2025

Introduction to the Episode

In this episode of The Herd with Colin Cowherd, presented by iHeartPodcasts and The Volume, host Chad Millman engages in an in-depth discussion with NFL expert and Fox Sports personality Danny Parkins. The conversation centers around NFL betting trends, recent rule changes, and team performances, offering listeners valuable insights into the evolving landscape of football wagering.

Segment 1: Chicago Sports Scene and Danny Parkins' Journey (03:39 - 20:38)

Chad Millman kicks off the discussion by highlighting Danny Parkins' roots in Chicago sports and his rise to prominence at Fox Sports. He remarks on Chicago's passionate fan base and the city's ability to generate engaging sports content.

Chad Millman (02:09-02:53):

"Chicago sports fans are so good at turning their fandom into content and turning that content into gold."

Danny Parkins shares anecdotes about his experiences, including events like live listener gatherings at Joe's on Weed, emphasizing the strong community ties within Chicago's sports enthusiasts.

Danny Parkins (03:23-04:16):

"The content that the teams generate is world class. And the city is, of course, as well."

The conversation shifts to Danny's transition from local Chicago radio to a national TV role at Fox Sports. He discusses the calculus behind his career move, balancing family priorities with professional growth.

Danny Parkins (20:01-20:38):

"I had to be honest with myself about providing for my family. It was a pretty obvious decision when you put it through the calculus of making a good living and being relevant on a national scale."

Segment 2: NFL Rule Changes and Betting Implications (07:16 - 09:18)

Chad Millman introduces recent NFL rule changes, particularly the adjustment of the kickoff placement from the 30-yard line to the 35-yard line, aiming to increase kickoff returns and game excitement.

Chad Millman (07:16-07:50):

"Last year, NFL rules changes moved the kickoff. As of this week, it goes to the 35. Hoping to get more kickoff returns into the game."

Danny Parkins expresses his concerns about how these changes impact betting, noting that moving the kickoff further back could inflate game totals and favor teams with strong kicking units.

Danny Parkins (07:50-09:18):

"Anything that gives an advantage to the offense, especially with how kickers are performing nowadays, it's a thing that will get baked into the totals and make the expected points in the game go up."

He elaborates on the unintended consequences of the rule change, highlighting the paradox where intended reductions in kicking impact have led to increased reliance on field goals.

Danny Parkins (08:30-09:18):

"It made kickers matter more because we saw more field goal attempts and more long field goal attempts. From a gambling perspective and watching the game, I just do not like that at all."

Segment 3: Betting Strategies and Trends (09:18 - 17:36)

The hosts delve into the broader implications of NFL betting trends, discussing the historical biases towards favorites and underdogs. Simon Hunter, the co-host, shares his skepticism about maintaining a heavy favoritism in betting strategies, citing recent anomalies and potential regressions in team performances.

Simon Hunter (09:58-11:44):

"I'm really busy the next two, three days because a lot of books have already put out divisional odds. I'm going to be taking heavy positions on favorites like the Bills, the Chiefs, Houston—teams we already think are the best in the division."

Danny Parkins counters by challenging the traditional aversion to betting favorites, arguing that with evolving team dynamics and rule changes, aligning with sportsbooks on favorites may offer new opportunities.

Danny Parkins (11:44-13:46):

"I support fading Bears optimism. Life is too short to not believe that the next solution could be the one that's dumb. From a gambling standpoint, I'm here for the cynicisms."

The discussion touches on the difficulty of maintaining a consistent betting strategy in the NFL due to the sport's unpredictability and the sophisticated nature of sportsbooks.

Chad Millman (15:01-15:51):

"Historically, you want to be on the same side as the sportsbook. It's hard to reconcile going into a year where we want to be ahead of the trend while knowing that being on the same side as the sportsbook doesn't always lead to winning bets."

Danny Parkins (17:36):

"Listen, I've made a living betting on the Panthers and the Raiders—teams that often are considered underdogs. But the game has changed, and we have to adapt by betting more favorites."

Segment 4: Personal Reflections and Future Outlook (17:36 - 38:40)

Throughout the episode, Danny Parkins emphasizes the importance of adaptability in betting strategies, especially with the NFL's evolving rules and team performances. He advocates for a nuanced approach, combining data analysis with in-game observations to identify betting opportunities.

Danny Parkins (20:38-23:27):

"You have to watch the games and trust your eyes. Adapt quickly if you catch on early to trends that are real and not fluky. This allows you to snipe opportunities in the market."

Simon Hunter adds that while trends may seem favorable towards favorites, the unpredictability of sports ensures that bettors must remain flexible and ready to pivot their strategies as the season progresses.

Simon Hunter (23:27-26:49):

"The biggest issue is that the game has changed so much. These rule changes are becoming a big deal for bettors like us who love betting dogs but are now having to bet favorites."

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Chad Millman [07:16]:

  "Last year, NFL rules changes moved the kickoff. As of this week, it goes to the 35. Hoping to get more kickoff returns into the game."

• Danny Parkins [08:30]:

  "It made kickers matter more because we saw more field goal attempts and more long field goal attempts. From a gambling perspective and watching the game, I just do not like that at all."

• Simon Hunter [09:58]:

  "I'm really busy the next two, three days because a lot of books have already put out divisional odds. I'm going to be taking heavy positions on favorites like the Bills, the Chiefs, Houston—teams we already think are the best in the division."

• Chad Millman [15:01]:

  "Historically, you want to be on the same side as the sportsbook. It's hard to reconcile going into a year where we want to be ahead of the trend while knowing that being on the same side as the sportsbook doesn't always lead to winning bets."

Concluding Insights

The episode highlights the intricate balance bettors must maintain between following established trends and adapting to new developments within the NFL. Danny Parkins and the hosts advocate for a strategic, data-driven approach to betting, emphasizing the necessity of flexibility in the face of changing game dynamics and rule modifications.

Listeners are left with a deeper understanding of how NFL rule changes can influence betting strategies and the importance of staying informed and adaptable to maximize betting success in an ever-evolving sports landscape.

Note: This summary excludes advertisements, promotions, and non-content sections to focus solely on the core discussions and insights shared during the episode.