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- [00:09]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our week 14 episode. We're going to break down the entire slate of NFL games. We'll discuss our exec decision. Our assignment says we'll narrow down the the options for our faves to put into the Favorites podcast. $100,000 pro football pick them contest three and two this week, folks. We bet on the Broncos last night at minus five and a half specifically because we expected Jameis Winston to give it away. Alas, that is exactly what happened, only not exactly as we saw it playing out. We will unpack that quickly. Live from our Tommy John home studios. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional better. Hello, Simon.
- [01:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I don't think there's a quarterback better to us in the league, Chad, than Jameis Winston. Like, anytime we need him to show up for us, he shows up in the biggest way. And I don't know if you remember this, But I was four years ago, we came in 24th place. We basically need to go five zero and this contest, whatever it was, 5,000 people were in it. Me, I needed a five zero week. And our last game came down to Winston versus Matt Ryan. We had Atlanta minus three and a half. They're up three. Winston's driving and he threw a pick six to go 30 for 30 in that season with Tampa and got us to 24th place, which was like big money for us at that time. So, yeah, yeah, Jamis has always been good to us with his pick sixes.
- [01:48]
Chad Millman
So look, we've talked about that and we're going to dig into that in a second. I do want to say I have very big news. Very big news. Are you ready?
- [01:55]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [01:56]
Chad Millman
I've mentioned this before. It's no joke when I say that my beautiful bride really has no idea what I do in my third floor office. Honest to God. She's vaguely familiar that we do a podcast, but she is supportive in the exact right way. And Simon, it's a way that I want someone to support you one day, my much, much younger brother. It's the way that I know Matt Mitchell and his brilliant and beautiful wife supports him as well. If I say to my wife, let's leave our happy life in New Jersey with close friends, two young kids not too far from her parents who are taking care of the young kids all the time, so I can go be editor in Chief of a freaking magazine in the middle of Connecticut. She's like, all right, that sounds good. Did she read the magazine? Never. Did I care? Not at all. When I said, let's leave ESPN and let's go start this cockamamie sports betting media business that has a 95% chance of failure. Oh, by the way, I have to be in New York City two nights a week. She was like, cool. But does she listen to our stuff? Not at all. It's all you need, Simon. You just need someone who says yes to the big stuff and you don't sweat the small stuff. This past weekend, I don't know what got into her, but she came to me after walking the dog. She says, hey, I listened to your podcast. I'm like, oh, what'd you think? And her response was classic. She goes, I can see why people like it. You guys are fun together. I don't think we're going to get higher praise than that from Stacy, who you've met. If nothing else, she knows that we have a show that's big.
- [03:45]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm just shocked she actually listened to it.
- [03:47]
Chad Millman
I'm shocked, too, and I'm happy to take it. Then she by the way, she went back through previous episodes to see if we ever talked about her. She was disappointed to know that we hadn't. On the off chance, I'm not going to tell her. On the off chance she ever listens to the podcast again, maybe soon she can listen to this episode, know that she's been acknowledged. There you go. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365. And now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia. We're 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions, restrictions apply. All right, quickly on the Jags and Broncos, because those are two games we won this past weekend in which we, on the surface got pretty lucky with backdoor covers. Right? The kind of games that we have not won much this year. And it's worth noting how they were both random and completely predictable. We thought the Jags with Trevor Lawrence as home dogs in the division getting the hook were a good spot. Instead it was Mac Jones with backto back career drives getting the back door losing by three. We had it at three and a half, just like we planned it. We thought the Browns and Jameis were due to pull a Jameis like game after their win against the Steelers in snowy Cleveland on Thursday night. Jameis goes off for nearly 500 yards. Four Tuddies has the game of his life. Also two pick sixes and a pick in the Broncos end zone as the game is ending. To help us preserve the COVID that is betting at its finest right there.
- [06:05]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it was all timer and it was, it was funny too where they kicked a field goal in Denver and I was a little lady friend. She goes, so what does this mean? Like mathematically like you've lost now? Because I told her we can't have a field goal. And I said, normally I would say yes, but this guy Jamis just loves to turn it over. And she's like, I don't know. She's like, I feel like he won't turn it over again. I go, we'll see. It was what I think one play he threw that pick. It was, he's the best they scored score. All of a sudden they're back down on the one. I explained to her that we had five and a half. I was like again, if they score here, it's they're on the fir, they're on the four yard line right now. They're probably going to score. Cause it's a meaningless touchdown. Mean you were once again gonna lose. And James, like you just said, he threw that pick at on the four yard line. It's just like God bless this man. I, it sucks that no team will let him be their quarterback. Cause he is what top five most exciting quarterback I think in my lifetime watching he's just so much fun.
- [07:00]
Chad Millman
The guy just throws darts with no fear. It's just, it's blind.
- [07:05]
Simon Hunter
He apparently can't see. Yeah.
- [07:07]
Chad Millman
Oh wait, hold on, hold on. This just in. William Vance of the Denver Broncos. I think he just gave up another touchdown as we're talking. I guess my feeling is that if the games are going to play out exactly as we predict, it would be nice if they could just space out the action so it all happens in a seamless, orderly way instead of packing everything into the final two minutes. I don't know if you feel that way, but I would like that because then I can just go to bed happy and knowing how it's going to end.
- [07:39]
Simon Hunter
No, I love it. It's the greatest sport on earth, Chad. You'll believe it eventually. It's the greatest sport on earth.
- [07:44]
Chad Millman
So despicable. So hard to watch. I did go to bed last night with 10 minutes left in the third because it was 10:30 at night. The game was clearly going to go till midnight and you were just raging.
- [07:55]
Simon Hunter
We were. It was just unreal. Winston was thrown for like 400 yards. I get it.
- [07:58]
Chad Millman
I mean it's like it was just too much. I can't. Because then you turn it off and you can't fall asleep for 90 more minutes. So yeah, I gotta get up and I gotta do exercise.
- [08:09]
Simon Hunter
I know I'm better than this. I know I'm like. I'm just praying for the Lord to deliver me from pick sixes.
- [08:15]
Chad Millman
Time to get to week 14. Green Bay Detroit. The line has moved from four to three and a half early money coming in on the packers like based on the season long stats this is a fantastic matchup. A power running game for the packers against the Lions defense that has actually been pretty good against the rush. Lions have an elite running game against a Packers deed that is at least better against the rush than the past few opponents the Lions have had. But since September 15, the Lions fed 15 players go on IR either for the full season or an extended period of time. I think 13 of those play 12 of those players on the defensive side of the ball including half their original starting lineup and the replacements for these starters. Like this is not the coaching mismatch the Lions have seen in the past few games either. So I like it's such a hard game to handicap. It really is because I feel like we don't know who's playing for the Lions.
- [09:20]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I would say a couple weeks ago would be. But this, this one feels really easy where you just talked about it's like they don't have the defense to get stops. I mean we saw even in that second half the Bears look like a totally different team was because the Lions just simply couldn't stop them. Right. I mean Caleb really figured out how to push the ball down the field and you saw that, you know all the injuries to their linebackers it's going to catch up to them and same with all the guys in their D line. It's like that stuff you can, you can hide it if for a little bit but eventually like we're getting late here and you guys, I mean you know you're in the best division of football right? Now, this line schedule is tough because they're playing all these really tough divisional games here. So two, three weeks ago, me and you would automatically been alliance here. We do not trust Jordan Love at all. Even if he played well those last couple of weeks, there's still little things he does where it's just. It's not the Jordan Love from last year. Right. There's just something off about Jordan Love this year. But at this number against a banged up Lions team, how do we not stay in this? Like, the back door is always, to me, always going to be open. And the Lions are now giving this spot where it feels like the Bengals are in. Right. That they're going to need to put up 30 points against these really good offenses if they're going to win these games. So, um, yeah, three and a half. It does feel a little too easy. That's the scary part. It's like, why is this not a three? But we'll take. We'll take the value. I'll take the three and a half right now while it's still available.
- [10:40]
Chad Millman
Yeah. The only thing that's given me any pause at all is that the Lions have been playing without defensive linemen and linebackers all season and finding ways to have a really effective defense in the spots where they need to be most effective. And they've now got a week to figure this out. I mean, part of the reason why they looked so bad against the Bears is because it was happening in real time. And it's hard to just sort of make those adjustments in real time when you're losing a defensive player every other series, if not every series. So I do think that they are so good at coaching and so disciplined that. And they are so good at finding talent even though they're picking Jamal Adams up off the street. That's how bad it is. It gives me a little bit of pause because I have so much belief in Dan Campbell and their. And. And how they coach. That's the only reason.
- [11:35]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I would say that's fair, too. But we saw when they played earlier this year, if we. We talked about. If you took away that pick six, the Lions win 17 14. And it's like a really close, ugly game. That's Jordan Love coming off. Were still playing with a bad injury in that game.
- [11:50]
Chad Millman
That's true.
- [11:51]
Simon Hunter
So it's just even last year we talked about they. They played in Thanksgiving game and it was like, wow, this Green Bay team actually matches up really well offensively against that Detroit defense. And that was when Detroit was healthy last year and this year they're not. So I get where you're coming from. Like there is. We, we just, we're scared of Lions cause we've been hitting them so hard and we really like them. But I just think it's all about this number here and in this divisional matchup. Take the three and a half.
- [12:13]
Chad Millman
I think I'm with you. Let's, let's recap the Week 13 Favorites podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick Them contest. Congratulations to Week 13 first place winner, Jason Vliec. Jason went 5, 0, and for his Monday Night Football passing yards tiebreaker, he wrote down the maximum of 900 yards. Who knew Jameis was going to throw for 497? That was good enough to win? He takes home the maximum $1,000 weekly prize. Well done as always. Producer Matt Mitchell has selected the Producers Cup Award to the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest. Have you heard about the lonesome loser? He's a loser, but he still keeps on trying. This week's Producer cup goes to to Daniel Ganiella, who went 05 and missed the tiebreaker by almost €600. Pretty good, Daniel. Please email our producer@podcastionnetwork.com to claim your prize. I have Simon. Three games that I've pinpointed as potential exec decisions. This is one of them. I'm not sure I'm going to land there. New York, New York jets at Miami minus six and a half. This was at Miami minus seven for a hot minute on Sunday, right before we went on the air. Someone hit the jets and it got to six and a half at bet365, which is where it's at. It is now at six at a lot of places. Am I going crazy? Like, why is there money coming in on the Jets? We both agree that Miami is the right side here and now we're getting him at a better number.
- [14:09]
Simon Hunter
Is this your first time, Chad? You know what's happening? It's. This has been, what is it? Nine straight weeks, Evan. We've had the jets be bet on and become the favorite.
- [14:17]
Chad Millman
That's what I don't get, though. The jets have been getting money every single week since they fired Robert Salah, and it's not comprehensible to me. Is no one paying attention? Like, since firing Salah, The jets are 31st in points allowed per possession, last in EPA per play. Like, it's a terrible team.
- [14:39]
Simon Hunter
Now if you go through all the numbers, it's like the downgrade from the LA from him being a Head coach to this guy who's coaching now. It's like they became such a worse team. Like, it's clear Salah wasn't the problem. But we've talked about, like, these. Even the pros. I know. I highly respect Chad. They're. They're hitting the slot like they like the Jets. They like them every week, and they've just been getting burned. And it's like. I don't know. They can't help themselves at this point. Right? I think it's like we joke about all the time. They've hit, they've keep hitting black, and they're. They're waiting for that red to come or whatever it is. And it's just. It's not hidden for them. Right? They're just. They've been off and I'll be patient. I mean, give me Miami five and a half. I'm happy to take that. And we talk about this all the time, TUA at home. This offense, it's different. And they beat up on bad teams. That's. That's what they're good at. So I'm happy to be patient, wait for this one to keep coming down. Like I already told you, I like Miami here. I will not be sucked in on the jets again. Like last week, like we talked about, they were up 21. Like, they had 21 points. It was. Whatever. It was 21 to 6, 21 7. It was lined up perfect for the jets, and they totally melted down. Like, they're just. They're one of the more mentally weak teams in all football. There's no doubt about it. So they're supposed to get up now, traveling down to Miami in this spot. I'm just not buying it. So, yeah, I'll be patient here. I'll let this. Like you. Like you said, you're gonna make exact decision. I was gonna make this, Simon says, but I agree with you. We've seen this come down from seven to six in most books. Why can we not cross that key number of five and a half? And let me get it. So I'll be patient and wait.
- [16:12]
Chad Millman
I just made a note that this is a potential foxhole. As you were talking. I'm like, if we think it's getting a five and a half, then let's foxhole it. Because we will definitely be on the opposite side of all of the professional betters. Your point about Tua beating up bad teams as favorites at home, 7 and 1 against teams with a winning percentage of.250 or less, which is the Jets. And by the way. Don't. If anybody is thinking, well, this is in the division, it's a different game. All of those wins have come in the division. He's 7 and 1 in the division as a favorite in this spot against bad teams. So we're going to be on bizarre.
- [16:55]
Simon Hunter
Though, the love for the Jets. I'm with you. It is one of the more bizarre things because it's like.
- [16:59]
Chad Millman
It's cockamamie. It's truly insanity.
- [17:02]
Simon Hunter
It is.
- [17:02]
Chad Millman
It's just doing it again and again and again. It's defined. It's defined. It's in the freaking dictionary. We'll be on Miami. I'm putting them on the list. It's just a question of what the number is going to be and if it's below seven. Fan freaking tastic. Carolina at Philadelphia. So the number's 12 and a half. Our first instinct when this was at 13 on Sunday night was, take the Panthers. The wise guys have done that. It's pretty much stayed at 12 and a half. Like, if we were looking to bet them, the best thing that could have happened was them losing an OT and the Eagles beating Baltimore on the road. That's exactly what happened. Like, it is a statement win versus from a public pov, a statement win versus another loss by another team everyone thinks is terrible. But are we going in on the Panthers?
- [17:57]
Simon Hunter
I can tell you, though, right now, I feel like this is another line that mean you come Sunday when we're throwing out all of our shit, this is one thing where pop up and you'd be like, just get it in there, because we're both going to like it. Why wouldn't we like it? It's way too big of a number for the way this Panthers team had playing. And maybe I'm being sucked in on it because I watched all 22 and Bryce Young, some of his throws, Chad, you're just like, okay, you see why this kid was what he was in college, right? Cause I never really understood it. But, you know, if he can throw on the run like he was in that game last week, he can have a career in this league. Like, he's. He's. He's really good at something that not a lot of guys are. I mean, even Bo Nicks, we'll give him his flowers from last night. Like, some of these young guys, the way they can throw, you know, with weird body angles on the move, that's just not something we saw, like in the 2000s. Like, this is very new age playing style. These guys are just such gifted athletes. So Bryce Young, keep this game close. Like you just said, we're playing a little bit of fire here because he's, he's been so good to us and the Eagles are, I mean, we have no doubt about it, one of the best defenses on football and one of the best offenses. So if we could, if we could cheat, I would love to just take either a first quarter Carolina or just take them first half.
- [19:09]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [19:10]
Simon Hunter
We've seen the Eagles are just a team that comes out slow, but we can't do that here and it's all about playing the numbers. So at 12, I'm not crazy about it, but I'm hoping, Chad, that the parlays, the teasers tie in the Eagles heavy and maybe we can get back to that 13 and a half in the contest because that, that to me would be an amazing number to have with this Panthers team. I just think offensively they're going to be able to hang in this game. But my fear is can they get stops defensively because the Eagles team, they're going to be able to have their way with this, this defense on Carolina.
- [19:37]
Chad Millman
Yeah, this is a get right game for Jalen Hertz. Right. Like this is just when he's, if there's anything that could potentially keep the Eagles from getting to the super bowl, it's Jalen hurts inability to be in premier elite playmaker with his arm. Like that's, that's it, right? We can see it in every game. He has these streaks where he's kind of rushed in the pocket. He is inaccurate, he can't find the right receivers. Like that happens and it's sort of a black hole in every single game. That to me is the biggest question for this Eagles team. But I do love their interior and you know, we have a bias for physically dominant teams. And Bryce Young, you know, we referenced this on the show on Sunday night. He is like slowly morphing from manager to playmaker. And you, you're spot on about some of those throws on Sunday night. He had like guys in his face off his back foot and just flinging darts. I know exactly the play you're talking about. It was like a third and long. He's off balance, falling back and nails to the only spot on the field. He can complete the pass. And it wasn't by accident. Like you watch the replay and he freaking nailed it. So, you know, here's the problem, some reality. The Zagles defense has been so dominant the past eight weeks overall, first in passing yards per play, sixth in EPA per pass, seventh in sack Percentage seventh in time to pressure. And by the way, they do all this without blitzing. It's the pressure from the interior alignment. Meanwhile, the Panthers defense, 30th in EPA per play, 6th in yards per rush allowed, 3rd most rushes of 10 plus yards allowed. So it's possible Saquon runs for 500 yards and crosses 2000 yards for the season and wins the MVP in this game. That's the scare. Yeah, but it's on the list. Keep it on the list. Here's another one that is on my list of executive decisions. And the third one on my list is so ugly, I don't even know why I've come to this conclusion. But this one is Cleveland at Pittsburgh. Cleveland's at six and a half. Look, we made the mistake last week. I won't do it again. You fade Tomlin in this spot.
- [22:15]
Simon Hunter
My kids want to have a good Christmas.
- [22:17]
Chad Millman
Division faves at 6 to 8, point 48% against the spread. Tomlin is a fave of 68 in the division. Just 11 and 14. The only question is, do we think this could get to seven? We didn't do the right thing last week. We're going to do it this week.
- [22:32]
Simon Hunter
Please don't talk to me about moral victories. That'd be disrespectful to those guys in the room. Yeah, I honestly don't think it's. I think this only comes down just because this is what you just talked about. This is like a professional spot. Like, we just saw, you know, James have an absolute meltdown on Monday night. Burned anyone that bet on him. So even if the public had bet him last night, they're totally off of him altogether. Right. This is going to be. All the money is going to be on Pittsburgh in this spot, and the only people betting the Cleveland is going to be professionals. And to me, it's really a fade on. I feel like Russell Wilson, like, are we really gonna get burned by him? Two weeks in a row of him throwing for over 300 yards? Cause I do think this is another matchup that I know doesn't look on paper like I'll turn to a shootout, but does feel like a game that's gonna be in the, like the high 20s, which, you know, for these, this matchup is kind of like a lot of points. The total is 43. You know, I just think James gives his team a whole new identity offensively, like this. Even last night, I felt that with that number was like, you know, that number felt a little. Little like high. Right. Like, even we bet it, it moved to six and a half. At five and a half, I felt like it was right at six and a half it was like, okay, the value there shifted to Cleveland at that point. Yeah, same thing feels here, right? Like this should be four and a half five. You just, I mean you're, you're saying that bet365. It's six and a half. Of most books it's down to six. So yeah, to me, I'd grab the six and a half. Now I can only see this coming down just because it's, it's just too high of a number for this type of divisional matchup in December. Like you said, Tomlin in these games, for some reason, either lose he's outright or just play it really close and one by three at the end. Doesn't matter when it was Ben Roethlisberger or Mason Rudolph. Like, these are just ugly games for Pittsburgh in home divisional game. So I'm with you, Chad. I like the six and a half. You know what? I'll make that Simon says.
- [24:18]
Chad Millman
I was just going to say this feels like you want to say Simon.
- [24:21]
Simon Hunter
Says I had another game I really like. But fuck, man, like it's. If it's six and a half at bet365, I'd grab that now because a lot of the books here in Jersey are down to six. When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says.
- [24:35]
Chad Millman
I will. Good. Then it forces me to make a different decision about exec decision and what I have for the exec decision. I think it will blow your mind. And after I did my research yesterday, I'm like, do I really feel this strongly about this game?
- [24:50]
Simon Hunter
Oh, God.
- [24:51]
Chad Millman
I know, I know. It's good, Simon. The final weeks of the NFL season are upon us. Good or bad, this is when reputations are made. And if you want to earn the reputation as an elite gift giver, then you need to give the ultimate gift of comfort and confidence. The gift of Tommy John. Thanksgiving has come and gone, but a cornucopia of comfort can still be yours. Break out those holiday gift lists. Figured out who deserves the perfect gift, the perfect fit, the silky smooth support of Tommy John underwear. Simon, why will you be giving the gift to Tommy John this season?
- [25:37]
Simon Hunter
Because, Chad, it's the gift that lasts.
- [25:40]
Chad Millman
If you want to be the goat, the greatest gifter of all time, head to tommyjohn.com favorites for 40% off in their cyber Monday sale. Today is the last day for this incredible offer. These are the lowest prices and best deals of the year. Bar none save 40% site wide for a very limited time at Tommy John tommyjohn.com favorites Las Vegas Raiders attempt Bay Buccaneers got away with one this past weekend. Had the Panthers against the Bucks at home. If the Raiders don't botch a snap and they kick a game winning field goal against Kansas City and the Panthers don't fumble a ball in Bucks territory or if they make multiple field goals during regulation or if they score one more touchdown in the red zone and the Bucks lose that game. Is this number seven?
- [26:41]
Simon Hunter
I don't know but I hate that I have to bet the Bucks here. It's. It sucks. I w I wanted to be on the Raiders but wow such a buck spot where it's like people are overreacting to what just happened last week. We just talked about it like Bryce Young played out of his mind. Really if you go back and watch it was incredible. Aiden O'Connell is not that guy. Like that Chiefs game to me we've seen it every year with them. It's like the flukiest game with the Raiders against that Chiefs team. Like even when Derek Carr was there they'd play these tight games where they'd upset this Chiefs team and then when they play against a team like the Bucks who's like a good playoff contending team, they would just get rolled like this is a bad Raiders team. I'm not letting last week throw me off. I know obviously Max Crosby is a difference maker with that defense but that was like the perfect, perfect lineup game for that Chiefs team. On the flip side, the Bucks had the game from hell but you saw that that change like we talked. The Bucky Irving thing to me is such a game changer for this Bucks team. Like he is so good and you know Baker had an awful game. They still able to pull that win out. Baker doesn't have back to back terrible games. He just has not been that player this season. Like usually he's week to week and I expect him to bounce back against a terrible Raiders defense here. So another not line I'll be patient on. Give me six and a half. Let the public keep hammering this number on this Raiders team because I knew right away when I saw this number I was like oh my God the public is going to hammer that Raiders line like they are all in after what just happened last week. But I thought me and you talked about it said more about that Chiefs team than I thought it said about that Raiders team. So yeah I'm going to be patient here, wait for a better number of that Bucks line, but it's six. Six and a half. I'll. I'll take that if you can get it now on the Bucks.
- [28:24]
Chad Millman
I'm surprised to hear you say that. I guess you could look at the Raiders game and think, okay, there's two different things here. They had some mishaps in the red zone. They really should have scored more points early. It's similar to what we just talked about with the Jags and with the Broncos. Right. Sort of everything you expected to happen happened in that game, only instead of it happening through the course of the game and competency, it happened in miraculous moments through two different plays. One to Brock Bowers, one to. I forgot who the other receiver was on long throws from Aiden oconnell.
- [29:05]
Simon Hunter
Was it Tucker?
- [29:06]
Chad Millman
Yeah, Tucker. That got them in the end zone and sort of made the game closer and sort of erased a 13 point deficit. Maybe you're right. I mean, I don't have a strong opinion about this game. I can't.
- [29:21]
Simon Hunter
No, it's fair. I mean, if it's a game we avoid, I wouldn't be mad either because we hate taking huge favorites. But it's. You know, it just feels like a kind of spot where it's like, this is. The Bucks are going to be undervalued in this spot.
- [29:31]
Chad Millman
To me, I love the Baker Mayfield narrative that's happening. I love the way he plays. I love that he's waving off trainers when he's getting his ankle stepped on, and that he's balling out in every game, and that this Bucks team loves him so much. And I love that now that there was all these flag planting brawls in college football this past weekend, everybody is asking Baker for his opinion. And, yeah, he's not even blanching. He's like, teams need to learn how to take an L. You want to plant a fucking flag? Plant a flag and fucking deal with it, losers. I just. I love Baker.
- [30:19]
Simon Hunter
I love him, too. But it is funny. Like, I was with my cousin, and she does not watch much football, and I had explained to her that he was taken before Josh Allen, who's just like a God among men. I was like, you don't get it. He went to, like, a normal school. Josh Allen went to Wyoming. Like, no one, no one goes to Wyoming becomes the best quarterback on football. But I'm with you. I love Baker. But the outside world, you're just like, who is this little guy that's got this little attitude? I'm just like, if you love this sport, he is one of the Best quarterbacks and he's just hilarious.
- [30:45]
Chad Millman
Oh my God, it's great. You know what's not great? Jacksonville and Tennessee. Tennessee is a 3 1/2 point favorite. I don't really have anything here.
- [30:56]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm happy to avoid it.
- [30:57]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I've had my fill. Yeah, we should play the Jags. But I feel like.
- [31:02]
Simon Hunter
Definitely play the Jags. If you had to in your pick contest, you had to make a pick here. I mean, Tennessee, they've just burned people all year being favorites. I mean, I remember even early in the year they had a bunch of different matchups. That one that really jumps out will always be. I, I still can't believe we took Tennessee against Malik Willis and Green Bay. Like, that was one of my worst bets of the year. Thinking Tennessee was a smart move. Cause they're going into backup in Green Bay. They're just, they're just terrible. So, yeah, you figure they bounce back here. That's what the books are saying. But yeah, if I have to make a pick on this line, I'll take the plus three and a half.
- [31:38]
Chad Millman
Are you ready? I'm very curious. Your take on this game. New Orleans Saints are five point favorites at the New York Giants. This line movement got crazy wacky. Opened at four Sunday night, immediately bet down to three and a half. And then right around when the Rams Saints game ended, it got bet up to four, four and a half, then five, down to four and a half again. In some places like this is kind of fun to me. The Giants will clearly need to run the ball to win this game. The Saints give up the second most yards per play on the ground. Tyrone Chase. Tyrone Tracy, Giants running back. Other than, you know, the COVID killing fumbles has been averaging 5 yards per carry. Only one team gives up more yards per play on the ground than the New Orleans Saints. Are you ready for it? The New York Football Giants. Across every metric, the Giants are the worst Russian defense in the NFL. And the Saints have been excellent running the ball. However, when I dug a little deeper, most of that success is really about Taysom Hill. And when he's been out, this team has really struggled offensively more. It's really as much about him as it is Derek Carr. I don't know why, but this is my executive decision. Take the Giants.
- [33:29]
Simon Hunter
What is New York Giants?
- [33:30]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [33:31]
Simon Hunter
Oh, my God. Oh, my God.
- [33:34]
Chad Millman
Oh, no.
- [33:35]
Simon Hunter
Disaster. What a bad idea. Oh, my goodness.
- [33:41]
Chad Millman
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
- [33:48]
Simon Hunter
You know Dexter Lawrence is out for the year, right? He's on the ir.
- [33:51]
Chad Millman
What if I Tell you I forgot before I said that. I knew it and I forgot.
- [33:55]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I feel like it's a big. It's a big deal.
- [33:57]
Chad Millman
I think that's a mistake on my part.
- [33:59]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Don't, don't, don't take this one.
- [34:01]
Chad Millman
I'm not doing it better.
- [34:02]
Simon Hunter
Thank God.
- [34:03]
Chad Millman
Yesterday I had convinced myself that I was taking the Giants. Like I'm. Like I'm a genius.
- [34:10]
Simon Hunter
I do love with the angle of it. It was my same view last week. Like again, if they didn't have that pick six, they probably cover or win that game against Dallas. Like they weren't awful in that game, but that was really about it. Being a divisional game Thursday, you're just throwing it all against. And it still didn't work out for him here. But to me, the Dexter Lawrence injury is just too much to overcome.
- [34:30]
Chad Millman
I totally, totally, totally forgot about that.
- [34:32]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [34:33]
Chad Millman
Thank you for reminding me. Wow. That. That could have been bad. Well, now I just want to go back and take Cleveland, but I'll have to move on. But you like my theory otherwise?
- [34:43]
Simon Hunter
I do. I think it's actually like a smart play like that, that Saints team, both these teams are going to be quit on the season. I mean, let's be honest. Like, I don't know who's quit more, but yeah, at this point I would just take the Giants because who the hell are the Saints be catching five against anybody.
- [35:00]
Chad Millman
They're.
- [35:00]
Simon Hunter
They're a terrible team.
- [35:02]
Chad Millman
Well, that's my theory. Either way, I'm putting them on the list just in case you're sick.
- [35:08]
Simon Hunter
No, no, I'm not tired. No.
- [35:16]
Chad Millman
Atlanta at Minnesota. Minnesota minus five. A month ago, the Falcons were six and three. Kirk Cousins had thrown for 2300 yards, 17 touchdowns, seven picks. Don't forget 800 of those yards. And eight of those touchdowns came in two games against the Bucks. Since then, Falcons 03 losses to New Orleans, Denver and the Chargers. Kirk has thrown six picks sacks seven times. Does not have another touchdown pass.
- [35:51]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, is we joked about. I told you. I felt like everyone in Joe Public in the world was going to be on Atlanta here and I was just going to have to take the Vikings because it's like the revenge spot. Whatever their mentality was for backing them and believing once again in this Falcons team, I'm just totally off Kirk. I've been off Kirk. Like I just weeks ago I noticed he just does not look right and everyone's coming around. Cause that was so egregious, that loss. Right. I mean, if they had just put Penix in the second half. They win that game, right? Kicking field goals like that. The Chargers had nothing going offensively. They were totally out of it. You know, four picks, it's just. It's inexcusable. So it's like, okay, I guess they're bouncing, they're betting on him to bounce back. But you've kind of just talked about it. Like, other than those two really big games, he's not been good this season. Like, he's been below average, which is not what he should be on that offense. Like, they want the better blocking offensive lines. They have great running backs, you know, Drake Glenn and Kyle Pitts. I mean, they're, to me, good receivers. You know, I. Maybe it's the number that's throwing me off here because it is high. But it's like this Vikings defense that likes to blitz and move guys off their spots. That's Kirk's biggest weakness right now. If you move him, any discomfort in the pocket, he folds right now or he throws egregious picks. Like, he just throws into terrible coverage. And that's what the Vikings thrive on. And now they're going against Guy they know better than anyone else, Right? Someone this team has seen him practice for all those years. So it's like, man, it's. If this becomes, like, you know, if this becomes a game that stays below six, I mean, you're trying to figure out favorites here. Obviously, I'd like this more than the Bucks. Like, I just really like the Vikings in the spot. It's all about what kind of number I'm going to get here. So it's another number, I bet. And it's actually gone up at certain books. It was four and a half. It's back up to five. As long as it stays below six, I think that's a good number on the Viking team. It's just. It's all bad right now for Kirk. I just. If it was, you know, a different matchup, maybe I'd give him some of the benefit of the doubt here. But the fact that it's going against his Vikings defense, that's just been so good this year, I just. I can't get around to taking his side.
- [38:00]
Chad Millman
So you mentioned some really good points. He's facing a defense. Kirk, is that his. Fourth in sacks, third in QB pressure, second in blitz rate. All the stats that back up what you were just saying about his lack of comfort. And a lot of people would say, well, you know, Bijan is having a great year and he's. He is. He's Much better this year than he was last year. The Vikings top ranked defense for rushing efficiency, top rank for defending rushes inside the tackles. Number two, defending rushes outside the tackles. In my notes you just said you're thinking about this number and like, why isn't it higher? That is exactly what I wrote in my notes. I'm like, what? This number feels too low.
- [38:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [38:47]
Chad Millman
Like it's, you know, scaring me.
- [38:48]
Simon Hunter
But maybe I'm overthinking it. But it's like, what? This is a beard number.
- [38:52]
Chad Millman
Clearly I was misreading my notes and I meant this was my exact decision, not I was was confused by the order in the schedule and the spread. But I really meant Minnesota minus five, not New York Giants plus five. This is my exact decision.
- [39:09]
Simon Hunter
A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders.
- [39:14]
Chad Millman
Execute them. Executive decision.
- [39:19]
Simon Hunter
This feels like the same thing with the Bills like last week, like we both loved the Bills and it was really all about the spot and how this was a bad matchup. The other side, it feels the same thing for here. This is just all really bad matchups for this Atlanta team. So hopefully we have the same results as that Bills game where it's just like you clearly saw. One team was great against the one. One team is great against defending the run and running the ball down team's throats. This week, this matchup we just talked about, it's Ken Kirk survived that blitz. He is not. He struggled all year against it. We think the Vikings defense will dominate this matchup.
- [39:49]
Chad Millman
I'm excited. This is my executive decision because much.
- [39:52]
Simon Hunter
More than the Giants.
- [39:53]
Chad Millman
Much more than the Giants. Because nobody's yelling at me in the chat.
- [39:56]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [39:57]
Chad Millman
While I'm making the play.
- [39:59]
Simon Hunter
I love it. Matt Mitchell's slowly becoming unhinged by our terrible picks. It's great.
- [40:03]
Chad Millman
Matt Mitchell is getting. For so many reasons. Matt Mitchell is getting grumpier and grumpy.
- [40:08]
Simon Hunter
The man that that's the under 80 last night gets mad at us.
- [40:11]
Chad Millman
He's got so many more reasons to be grumpy. It's just lovely. Matt, you and I can talk about this in our one on one this week.
- [40:19]
Simon Hunter
Time's up.
- [40:20]
Chad Millman
Stop speaking.
- [40:21]
Simon Hunter
How come you won't let America hear the whole story? Whose pocket are you in? Well, this whole thing is a travesty and a sh. A mockery. It's a Travis Shamockery.
- [40:31]
Chad Millman
Seattle at Arizona. Arizona is a 2 1/2 point favorite in this game. Do we think Seattle's defense is better than Arizona's?
- [40:41]
Simon Hunter
I'll Give Seattle defense respect. They've definitely gotten better. As soon as going along where they were a team that I was just like, I thought it was fluky. A couple of their matchups, I was like, yeah, it was kind of the teams that are playing. But no, they've. They've been really good down the stretch here and we kind of heard that that was going to be the part right. Of their head coach. It was like it's going to take a while to learn his defense and we've seen that here. But this is another game where like it was plus three on Seattle. Why wouldn't I take that number, Right? I don't know if you feel the same way. It's. These teams are pretty damn even. Like they're, they're good and they can move the ball offensively but they're terribly inconsistent and they've had a bunch of games. Both, both of them have had games where they've easily could have won or lost and that they're sitting here now. This is going to decide their div. Right. This feels like this game here. The winner here is kind of, you know, going to have the control of their own fade. So Arizona minus two and a half. Yeah, Chad, you could talk me into it, but once it's three, I'm. I'm going to take Seattle at that number.
- [41:40]
Chad Millman
It feels like a no lean for me. Home division faves of less than 3, 47% against spread the past 20 years. So like I don't feel strongly about this game. I like, you know, amazingly, I like Miami minus six and a half. I like Minnesota minus five. Yeah, I like the games we have in there more than I like this one.
- [42:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, there's some games this week that's like. It's. It's predicate on the number, but it's. I really don't want to get that much action on it. They're just. Some of these teams are who we think they are, which is just heavily inconsistent like from week to week.
- [42:17]
Chad Millman
Then there's the Chicago Bears. They're playing the San Francisco 49ers. They're four point dogs on the road in San Francisco. Look, if you like the Bears, I hope you got them on Sunday. When we talked about it, they were at six and a half.
- [42:31]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that was crazy.
- [42:32]
Chad Millman
Now it's four and probably headed to three and a half. Everything is on the Bears.
- [42:37]
Simon Hunter
Hungry Bears are violent Bears.
- [42:40]
Chad Millman
I think one team is feeling relieved they got rid of their head coach that the players hated. I mean the unpacking of this the past few days as a Chicago sports fan has been like revelatory. It's been interesting. It's been everything that we thought it was, only nobody would say it. And now that it's over, everyone's getting to see the truth, which is that Eberfluss was a bad coach who the players didn't like. And then one team was wondering what happened to its season. And now Christian McCaffrey's on the IR again, probably out for the year. Jordan Mason, his backup, who had rushed for almost a thousand yards in his place. He's on ir, likely done for the year. Like at some point. The value on the Bears, I think is gone. But I'm not dying to bet this game.
- [43:28]
Simon Hunter
No. And like, Trent Williams might be back, but he's dealing with a lot of stuff going off field right now. We're thinking of him obviously in his family, like he's going through hell and, and he has.
- [43:37]
Chad Millman
And like he's been day to day for two weeks.
- [43:39]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, he's injured, right. And it's like they, they only could take so much. This we always talk about, this was a team that was very top heavy, right? There were stars and scrubs, and with all these stars out, they're just nowhere near the same team they were last year. And Purdy is totally out of his like, comfort zone. Like he has, you know, he's fought through injuries as well. But with. With all those weapons going and this offensive lineup being what it is, you can just tell he's not obviously the same player as he was these past two seasons. So that Bears number six and a half, that was like, what in the world is this number? Yeah, it really was and it sucks it's come down because I already knew this week the professionals were on the Bears. They've been on the Bears every week for the last feels like four weeks. So you knew they'd be on it. I thought, okay, The San Francisco 49ers, even if they lose by 14, I still think the public would come on their side. They have totally jumped ship on this team, like the public and the professionals now on this Bears team. So in a normal year, me and Chad would hammer this 49ers team because this is just the spot to take them. This is where you back the books here. But this has not been a normal year. I mean, even last night, like the books desperately needed the Cleveland, right? All the money, every teaser in the world was tied to that team and it didn't hit. Same with that Bills game. Like they desperately need the 49ers wasn't even close. It was a blow. Like we've just seen this year. The favorites have been kind of prospering the spot. So, yeah, the public side, it's Joe Public. It's the. I know the Bears right now is. But right now. Just say right now I'll take it. But I know I'm going to get some calls about this one, Chad, because I do think the number might. I might have moved too much at this point. And maybe where we've missed the value on the spurs team, the value has shifted to the 49ers. But it's still three and a half. It feels like. Isn't there still value there? Maybe at three I can shift it and lie to myself and say, no, this is when I take the 49ers. But they feel like a team that's totally quit on the season because everything that's going on with the Bears every week, they've been in it down to the last play and they just has not broke their way right these last couple of weeks. So, yeah, I'll. I'll take the Bears here. They deserve the respect to have this three and a half.
- [45:47]
Chad Millman
Well, look, the Bears are certainly going to be rejuvenated by the fact they got rid of their coach, by the fact they feel there might be some competent decision making in the two to three times when you needed the most from your head coach, game management, clock management, timeouts, etc. They just haven't had that right. And so they've been playing at a disadvantage. Are they going to be so psyched, have such a good attitude? They're not going to get down from bad mistakes. You're not wrong. This team has been fighting to stay in every game despite playing with an anchor around their ankles as their head coach. Right. I mean, they just have like, he makes so many bad decisions. So it's really interesting to me that so many people are buying into that narrative, which to me is when you got to fade it like right I. Any other year. You're right. We're hammering the Niners at this point. If you think about the contest, it's going to be three and a half in the contest. So we just, you know, whatever we want it to get to in real life. And I'd like it to get lower so I can play the Niners. It's going to be three and a half in the contest and I would. I would hate to play the Bears here. I think. I think we'd be miserable playing the Bears. Here.
- [47:14]
Simon Hunter
I don't know. I just think. I just think it's. Yeah, you're right. You're right. You probably would be, you know. Yeah, it's tough. It's tough especially because, like, I'm the douche sitting here on the six, six and a half tickets where it's like, oh, I could just not even bet this one. Now, I already got the good number on the Bears, but we don't play that here. So, yeah, I'll definitely have more info on this come Thursday, but right now, as we sit here, I'm with you. It feels like I'm walking to a trap, but I can't help myself. Taking the Bears here, it's.
- [47:44]
Chad Millman
It's fascinating. You're not wrong about Brock Purdy either. What a difference it makes not having Brandon Iuk. Yeah, you know, that was the guy he was always throwing to.
- [47:55]
Simon Hunter
So if you needed 20 yards, I.
- [47:57]
Chad Millman
Was this guy, you know, like, they've got nobody who can get separation between Iuk and McCaffrey. Those were his safety blankets. That's where the majority of his passes went. And all of a sudden, the guy who led them to an NFC title game and a Super bowl in his first two seasons and has a big contract coming up now you got to wonder, is he going to get a max deal? Who's going to pay him? Like, what's his deal going to look like?
- [48:22]
Simon Hunter
I know talking to people that work in the organization. John lynch, midway through the season, was kicking himself not moving off Debo, like they were trying to move him before the season. He thought, you know what? I'll keep the band together one more year and then we'll trade them next year because Iuk, they're tied. IUK now for years to come. And Debo's value was just the bottom of the barrel. Now, that guy, he is not that good right now.
- [48:44]
Chad Millman
Get out early. That's the mantra. Get out early. Buffalo at the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams are four and a half. Look, this was a decent move off of the Sunday night Superman performance by Josh Allen. It opened at three and a half. You wanted to bet the Bills at three and a half. Now it's at four and a half. You made a great point on Sunday night. The Bills don't tend to lose these kinds of games. I interpreted that as them being a favorite in a spot where you normally like to take the dog. So I looked it up. Allen is a favorite of more than 3.55percent against spread in his career on the road, 57% against spread we talked.
- [49:27]
Simon Hunter
Just the matchup too, right? We were saying this. Bill's team, their identity of running the ball down team's throats. You saw it there on, you know, Sunday night. Like, it's incredible how Joe Brady's transformed that offense where I feel like such an idiot, even though I did take their overcoming the season. It was just like, how did we doubt that offense with Josh Allen? Josh Allen. Josh Allen. Alert here for Josh Allen. Looking for Alex. Got it.
- [49:51]
Chad Millman
He's a runner. No, he's a thrower.
- [49:54]
Simon Hunter
He is a football player. Through and through with his left. And there he goes.
- [49:58]
Chad Millman
Josh Allen, huge run.
- [50:01]
Simon Hunter
An.
- [50:01]
Chad Millman
Excuse me.
- [50:02]
Simon Hunter
Touchdown. How many quarterbacks have you ever seen hurdle anyone? Goodness. There's no fear. No way. Still going. Oh, my goodness. The demands to do something about this outrageous man became louder and louder. He's so good. He's so unique. I mean, obviously he should be the MVP favorite right now. I mean, this is, it's lined up perfectly too. Their, their division so bad. If they can just survive these next five weeks and get that one seed, get Kansas City to come to Buffalo, it's. It's just so lined up for them this year. Like, how do they not make the super bowl this year? This Bills team, I just, you know, I love their defense where they're playing, but offensively, I'll. I'll never have fear when they're down. Like, they're just going to be a team that's never dead because they're just so in sync right now offensively. And Josh Allen spent at such a high level. So, yeah, wanted to be on the Rams. I joked I've lost a small house betting the Rams this season, and I'm not going to be sucked in even though this is another spot that stinks. Like, this number stinks. I don't know how the Rams are going to cover it. The books, they, they. They believe the Rams are going to somehow cover the summer. But I'm just totally off with this where it's like, I think it's all because of Stafford that this number is what it is. If it's. If it's not all the respect we give to him. This number is easily six, six and a half. Stafford has not been the staffer of the, like, the past. He's been terribly inconsistent this season. And like, he goes on little runs, will play great for a quarter, maybe get a couple of touchdowns, and then he'll just disappear for two or three quarters. He's just been so inconsistent this year. And this Bills team, I Get it. They people expect them to have a letdown game here. And I totally view that. That's why I wanted to be on the ramps here. It's like, how do you not have a letdown game? But with them chasing that one CE Chad and just how locked in Josh Allen is, I just. I can't see it. So there's a couple fours out there if you still want to grab it. I would. I just. I think this Bills team is so good. On the flip side, this Rams team, we've seen it. They're just not that team. We thought they were going to be coming this season. Doesn't matter that they have, you know, two of the best receivers in football and a really good running game. They just are inconsistent offensively and defensively. They can't stop the run. We even saw it last week. Like Taysom Hill going out was a gift for them. Cause he was running all over them. Him and Kumar. So, yeah, totally off this Rams team. I would buy on this bill.
- [52:35]
Chad Millman
Spot pass blocking for the Rams is the issue. We've talked about this specifically on Sunday night, what you just said. Stafford goes on these little streaks, but eventually they have that sack at the exact wrong time. Or they can't get that extra yard at the exact wrong time. Cause the offensive line, even though they finally have all their starters back, it's just been terrible this year. So it's also sad.
- [53:02]
Simon Hunter
Last week was the first time in McVeigh's coaching career he was shut out in our first half.
- [53:06]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's.
- [53:07]
Simon Hunter
You should go through the list of the quarterbacks he had scored points with in the first half in his career. It's just. Something's wrong with that Rams offense.
- [53:13]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I think they're good against bad teams and they can get away with it against bad teams, but mediocre to great teams. It's not going to happen. The what's interesting here with the Bills, obviously they're a huge public side, but it's the money. Meaning the professionals have come in hard on this team. 61% of the tickets are on Buffalo, 84% of the money. When there's that big of a discrepancy that tells you that the public is obviously coming in, but the professionals have been coming in at a very high rate on the Buffalo Bill. So they'll be on.
- [53:44]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, the three and a half was a bad number to open.
- [53:46]
Chad Millman
Yep. Hey, folks, a reminder. We've got the Favorites podcast watch party on December 12th coming up fast. It's nine days from today, a week from this Thursday, we're going to the Wicked Wolf in Center City Philadelphia. We're doing free drinks, Q and A with me and Simon. Matt Mitchell will be there too. People can ask him why he's so grumpy lately. Doors open at 6pm we're all going to stick around and we're going to watch the Thursday Night Football game between these Rams, who we love, and the Niners. It's turning into a fantastic matchup. We're all going to want to hang out for this. We're going to bet. We're going to have a few drinks. We're going to have a conversation. We're going to have a really good time. Rsvp Please RSVP for this free event. Okay. Check out the link in either the podcast or YouTube episode description pages. Simon and I are tweeting it out, we're threading it out, we're blue skying it out. Wherever you are, we will be there and you will all be with us at the Wicked Wolf in Center City Philadelphia. December 12th. Doors open 6pm Chargers at Kansas City Chargers were four and a half on Sunday night. We liked it. Then they moved to four at bet 365. They're at three and a half at a lot of other books. I think we still take the Chargers at plus three and a half and that's sort of the line in the sand.
- [55:19]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, obviously we both love the way more four and a half because this game is going to come down to the very end, just the way they've always played each other. It's always very tight and comes down to last possession. And the fear here is something you kind of nailed last week that I underrated a little bit of that. J.K. dobbins was, you know, a difference maker for that Chargers team like he really was. You saw last week. That was by far the worst Chargers game of the season against an Atlanta Defense is not that good. Certainly not on the level of this Kansas City team. You expect this Kansas City team to bounce back after their worst defensive performance of the year, in my opinion. And back to back weeks, right? They struggled against Carolina, they just struggled against the Raiders. It's like, I can't believe it. It's like this is not the Spags defense we're used to, especially at this point in December. So this is really me and you trusting the numbers and the fact that this Chiefs team just plays games close. Especially these Chargers games where it's like, even when they were much better than his Chargers team, you know, Herbert always Find a way to keep it close and lose always in the last possession. I mean, he always loses somehow on the last possession against this Chiefs team. So I don't know if I'll be in our moneyline around Robin, the Chargers, but at four, three and a half. I'm with you, Chad. I would take still the Chargers at the number. This line should just be three. We're getting good value here. We'll see if the books keep shifting it because, you know, we both knew Sunday night this was going to be a heavy public side and professional side. This Chargers team just. Yep, everyone was watching that Black Friday's game and they're totally off this Chiefs team. I mean, it's just a week of the pundits saying lines, too many injuries, they're done for the season. This is the banged up, bad Chiefs team. They're not the same Chiefs teams last year. Even though at this exact point this Chiefs team last year was even worse. It's just a week of everyone's shitting on this Chiefs team. So that's kind of the fear, right, Chad? It's like at what point does public perception overrate and adjust too much on this Chiefs team? I. I don't think they have yet this point. Like we just said, this number should be three. It's four. Go grab the four.
- [57:20]
Chad Millman
A lot of injuries for this Chargers team, not just J.K. dobbins. I think that is a big deal. They do not have an effective running back on the roster right now and their only receiving threat is Ladd McConkey. So a lot of challenges for them. I actually worry more about their injuries than I do about the Lions because the Lions have, I think, more offensive firepower, whereas. And, and the cluster of injuries for the Lions as comps, because both teams have a lot of injuries, is on defense, whereas the Chargers have a cluster of injuries, but at key positions in the defensive backfield, along the defensive line, in the, in the offensive backfield, different spots. So it's a. It's a, it's. To me, it's a. It's not a guarantee that we want to take the Chargers. Last game on the board. Cincinnati at Dallas. Dallas is at five and a half. I liked the Cowboys on Sunday night and try as I might, I still don't hate it. And you know, the defense is getting better with Micah Parsons and the Bengals pass blocking is just fucking terrible. Like bottom five, according to Pro Football Focus. I don't think it's going to get on our five. It's not an exact decision But I still don't hate the Cowboys.
- [58:48]
Simon Hunter
I don't either. It's just our fear here is if this does turn into a shootout, we're probably cooked, right? There's no world that Cooper Rush can keep up with Joe Burrow. But you just said it like this is who the hell are this? Bengals seem to be catching this many points. I don't care if it is Cooper Rush. It's like, ok, if it was three and a half, that would make sense at five and a half. And you liked it at six, which I agreed with. I was like, okay, it's six. This is a good number. Unfortunately, the professionals agreed with Chad. They bet this. Now it is five and a half. I'll. I'll pass on right now and just hopefully it goes back to six. And if it doesn't get to six, you know, I know I'm going to talk myself into taking Dallas just because this number is too big. But for contest purposes, I wouldn't put this in unless it was six and a half.
- [59:33]
Chad Millman
The professionals always agree with Chad. It's like a recurring theme on this show. Other than when he's not remembering the Giants not having their most dominant player on defense, he's generally pretty sharp locked in. Well said in so few words. All right, Simon says is Cleveland plus six and a half Exact decision. Minnesota minus five and a half. We're feeling foxhole.
- [60:07]
Simon Hunter
Minnesota, you can get a you go five right? 365 at.
- [60:11]
Chad Millman
What did I say from Minnesota? I said five and a half. I meant five. We're feeling foxhole about Miami at minus six and a half. Will confirm that as the number hopefully goes down. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365. Now new bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites deposit10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms condition restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on The Action Network YouTube page 11am Eastern Thursday to talk week 14 best bets. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods rate. Review. Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Till next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.