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- [00:00]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers. Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out. Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love. Tons of guests are going to join in, too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le table. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:33]
Jason Demers
Hey, everyone.
- [00:34]
Adnan Virk
I'm Madison Packer, a pro hockey veteran.
- [00:37]
Jason Demers
Going on my 10th season in New York.
- [00:39]
Adnan Virk
And I'm Anya Packer, a former pro hockey player and now a full Madison Packer. Stan, Anya and I met through hockey.
- [00:45]
Jason Demers
And now we're married and moms to two awesome toddlers, ages 2 and 4.
- [00:49]
Adnan Virk
And we're excited about our new podcast, Moms who Puck, which talks about everything from pro hockey to professional women's athletes to raising children and all the messiness in between. So listen to Moms who puck on.
- [01:01]
Jason Demers
The iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever.
- [01:05]
Adnan Virk
You get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Myles Gray. And I'm Jack O'Brien. We're the hosts of the Daily Zeitgeist, and we want to tell you about Mild Jack Got Mad Boosties, an NBA podcast from iHeart Heart Radio. We nailed that. This is a weekly podcast about all the amazing moments that that keep all of us NBA fans coming back for more. Basically, if you love basketball and you like to laugh, listen to Miles and Jack Got Mad Boosties, an NBA podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Brought to you by Hypnotic. Happy holidays from me, Michael Rapaport. And my gift to you is a free subscription to the I Am Rappaport Stereo podcast where I discuss entertainment, sports, politics, and anything and everything that catches my attention. I am here to call it as I see it. And there's a whole lot of things catching my eyes these days. Listen to the I Am Rappaport Stereo podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, and wherever you get your podcast.
- [02:22]
Jason Demers
Welcome to the favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We part of the volume podcast network. I am Shad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday week 15 episode where we break down the entire slate of NFL games. We will also discuss our exec decision and our Simon says we're going to start to narrow down the options for our fav five to put into the favorites podcast $100,000 pro football pick them contest this weekend. We went two and three this past week. We won with the Dolphins and the Vikings losing in predictable ways with the Chiefs who made it another cardiac win but didn't cover. And we lost in a predictable way with the Browns who tumbled away backdoor opportunities and the Bears who we regretted hours before kickoff. Live from our Tommy John Home Studios, I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my BFF Professional Better Simon Hunter hello Simon.
- [03:28]
Adnan Virk
Hello Chad. How we doing?
- [03:30]
Jason Demers
Feel great, feel motivated, feel alive. Having a great day. Really excited about our event this week. We'll remind people the details coming up. Also reminder the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites deposit10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF IN IOWA terms Condition restrictions apply. At last. Simon we do not have any buys. I feel like last week with all the buys and the Thursday game being a game we loved, we did not have a ton of games that we could really sink our teeth into that we could agree on for the final five. So we get a full slate every weekend from now through the end of the year, which I love. More options equals more opportunities. As we say we like optionality. Let's get to week 15. First game this is the game for our Thursday Night Football Watch party. Super excited to see everyone at the Wicked Wolf in Philadelphia. The Rams scored this past weekend on nearly every drive against a team that had just beat up on the Niners, who are two and a half point favorites against the Rams on Thursday nights. The Rams or the Niners won impressively against a bad team. Who gets more credit, Simon in the eyes of the public? The Rams for beating the Bills, the Niners for beating up on the Bears.
- [05:46]
Adnan Virk
I mean, obviously it's going to be the Rams. It was arguably. I mean, we didn't break it down too much. Cause I didn't want to keep driving the hot needle into Matt Mitchell here. But that was like, one of the best games ever. Like, and as someone like me that bet the second half on the Bills, I mean, obviously that'd be nice for them to win, but I didn't care. I just wanted the COVID And Josh Allen did something we talked about we'd never seen in the history of what we do. Like, I think it was the greatest fantasy football day in history. He's the first quarterback ever have three rushing touchdowns, three passing touchdowns. It was truly the most insane game ever that we get one a year or every other year, it feels like. And that was one that, like, you know, in the summertime, that's going to pop up on my NFL Network and I'm going to have to sit down and watch that whole game just because it was that good of a game.
- [06:35]
Jason Demers
Let me put it in context. Josh Allen is the second player in NFL history with three passing touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns. He joined hall of Famer Otto Graham, who did it in the NFL championship game against The Lions in 1954.
- [06:56]
Adnan Virk
He did against Plumbers and Painters. Pretty impressive what Josh Allen did in this current stage. And, yeah, we talked about that line. They opened at three. It went away, obviously, in this line opened at, I believe, three for the Rams. And it went down. Right. It went down to two. When we were doing our show live on Sunday, I kind of already gave it away to people that no matter what, this was going to be under three. I was going to be on the 49ers. It was just. It's going to be an overreaction to the Rams, and it's also going to be value on this 49ers team. Now, I just hit her today. I'm not. I'm not as confident as I was Sunday night because even today I just read they still don't know if Trent Williams is going to be back. And, you know, clearly that didn't matter against that Bears team. Right? Because they were. We joked about they already had 300 yards when the Bears had nine yards like that game.
- [07:46]
Jason Demers
No, Simon, it was 319 yards to four yards in the first half. The Bears had five punts, five punts, four yards.
- [07:57]
Adnan Virk
So on one side, we have a defense that showed up for the 49ers, and the other side, the Rams offense that showed up. But we talked about this Rams team. They've just struggled against the run all season, and that's kind of been their Achilles hill all season. Even in that game against the Bills, they did okay against the run, but overall, obviously, we just talked about their defense gave up six touchdowns to just one individual and Josh Allen. So there's clearly ways this 49ers will be able to attack them. We've seen it before, too, where they just for some reason, McVeigh and his team, they let down in this spot, especially when they're on the road against this 49ers team. So, yeah, you can see right now in the action app, it's all the money, all the tickets right now, right, are coming in on this Rams team. Not that shocking. So if you miss the two, you can be patient, maybe hope it gets there again. But I knew the professionals are going to be on this 49ers side, and that's what we're seeing right this. Soon as this touched two, went back up two and a half, that. That feels like where it's going to go for the kickoff, right? Two and a half or three, depending on what the book needs here. So, yeah, I'm excited that we have a good game for our watch party because we were joking two weeks ago. It's like if these guys, these teams are banged up, this might be an absolute dud. Now coming into. Coming into this game, it's like, wow, this is a really good game that one of these teams, if they lose it, their. Their playoff dreams are pretty much done. So, yeah, line up for a good one.
- [09:11]
Jason Demers
Yeah. Eileen. Ners. Eileen. Thursday night home teams. Um, Eileen. Kyle Shanahan against Sean McVay. He's had his number multiple times over the past few years, so I still like. I'm with you. I like the Niners if it's under three. The Trent Williams thing is the one thing I was trying to get intel on yesterday. Could not get anything confirmed or affirmative that he would be playing. So that is the one thing that. That is a little bit scary. Totally agree with you on that. Here's what's interesting to me. Well, actually, I want to get to that when we get to the Eagles game. Quick reminder, don't forget, last reminder. Our free favorite podcast event is this Thursday rsvp. It's an exclusive live episode performance along with free drinks and good times will be taking place at the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia. Me and Simon Evan Abrams is going to be there. Matt Mitchell is going to be there. The event starts at six. We'll record at seven. Everything leads into Thursday Night Football between these Rams and Niners. To RSVP, check out the link in the podcast or YouTube episode description. Simon and I will tweet it out as well. If you are attending, check your inboxes. Foreign email will send out with more details. You will get VIP status if you're an active bet 365 user. Be sure to have an account make your deposit if you haven't yet. Free favorites, swag prizes from our buddies at Tommy John. Possibly a warm embrace from me. Space is limited. We'll see you in Philly. Listen, it's an exclusive episode. Simon. The other day I'm on the phone with my dad and he was asking about the event. You know, he's in Chicago and he's like, so will I listen to the show? After? I'm like, no, it's just for the people who are there. He goes, so I can't listen to it. I'm like, dad, I'm telling you, unless you're coming to Philly, you are not going to hear this. And he didn't bite. So my dad will not be there. I might not even be able to get my older son there. He's in the middle of finals at Drexel. He's like, I'll see if I can get there. That's how much my family cares about what's going on.
- [11:36]
Adnan Virk
Chad's gonna be giving away hugs, people. I'll probably be giving away some cash. That's the, that's the difference. We are. No hugs for me, just cash.
- [11:42]
Jason Demers
Which would you rather have?
- [11:45]
Adnan Virk
That's true.
- [11:45]
Jason Demers
What is better than a warm embrace? Cold cash, it doesn't last. But a nice feeling to know that you're loved and seen and appreciated. That, that, that buoys confidence. That's how I parent Dallas at Carolina. Carolina is minus two and a half right now. Simon, look, this is the team that I think this team put us on a downward spiral to start the year. Like, they nearly turned our listeners against us. They're finally, finally consistently playing like the team we expected them to be on Sunday night. They were one point dogs to the Cowboys right before we went on the show. That line flipped quickly. It was one one and a half up until two hours ago. Now they're two and a half point favorites. You said you had this as. As Carolina minus 2. For the record, this is the first time the Panthers are favored in a game in almost exactly two years. It was like mid December two years ago. 2022. Can you name the team they were favored against and what Happened? Do you have any idea?
- [12:59]
Adnan Virk
In 2022, December 18, 2022, was it at home against Derek Carr and the.
- [13:07]
Jason Demers
Saints at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers?
- [13:11]
Adnan Virk
Wow.
- [13:11]
Jason Demers
Classic. Rah rah. Mike Tomlin road underdog Steelers won outright because that's what Mike Tomlin does. So here's my question for real though now, like, is the value on our favorite team, who we've been betting every single week the past month, finally gone?
- [13:33]
Adnan Virk
I don't think it's gone because like I think I said on the show either I added two or three. But like, this. This number here feels right. Um, when it opened, we talked about that was way too low. Even when it was one, it was still showing value on the Panthers. But the issue is we went from like last week, I had that number 10, so we were getting. I mean, it closed at 14. That's four points of value. That was really extreme where this at half a point, it's like, we'll force it in if we need to because we, like we talk about we love them and clearly they're playing as a better team right now than the Cowboys in a lot of ways. And you know, if this gets to three, though, it's like, okay, at what point is this? I'll buy a low spot on a Cowboys team that, you know, if they didn't muff that punt, wherever that'll happen in that game of Cincinnati, they probably would have. I mean, I don't know about loot like winning that game, but at least would have covered. They probably would have got a field goal and then maybe on a last touchdown by the Bengals. But still, it's like, you know, you're right. There's a point where we need to sell on them. And this, this might be it because the Lions move so much at this point. So I'm doing my best not to get sucked in on it because it's like we. We feel a little bit of attachment to this team right now because they've just been so good to us and they've done exactly what we thought they would be this season, which is a team that can move the ball on the offense, you know, now it's like you just said, it's getting close to -3 in a lot of books. Most books are showing two and a half. So I'm assuming by Thursday show this is at three and at fits three and a half in contest. I mean, that's gonna be very tempting for us to take the Cowboys.
- [15:06]
Jason Demers
I just can't believe that the rest of the sports betting World has caught up to the Panthers. Fifteen weeks later, they've caught up to the Panthers. Turns out we were right. Fifteen weeks later, we're a hundred percent right.
- [15:22]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, it's better to be early than late, right, Chad?
- [15:26]
Jason Demers
I guess so. Except when you lose on the Panthers for six straight weeks, you know, turns your entire season upside down. Kansas City at Cleveland. How coincidental. Cleveland is a four and a half point home dog. How coincidental that the two teams who burned us on Sunday are playing each other. The line opened at six and a half. We saw it on Sunday night. Now down to four and a half. We said this would happen. Right. We identified the game. Six and a half was too high. Jameis is not Justin Herbert. The Browns O line is not the pass blocking unit that the Chargers is. But I do think their pass rush is much better than the Chargers. And we've now seen every, every single week how bad the Chiefs offensive line really is. Especially their edge blockers. Like it didn't matter who was in there on Sunday night, DJ Humphries or anybody else. Like the Chiefs were only effective when they went to the short passing game. Right. That was the only time they could really move the ball. And like at this point, between the holding penalties, the false starts, the formation penalties, the Chiefs O line is a huge liability. And you can see it in Patrick Mahomes face. Like, I don't know if you have different thoughts on this game than I do about the Browns, but like, other than the fact the line has moved two points, we've lost some value. Still feels like you're taking the Browns at four and a half.
- [16:55]
Adnan Virk
You're not wrong. But like the same spot with last week, eventually we're all going to get caught and the value is going to shift the other way. And that's how I felt last week, that Chargers game. It's like the Charger were down there, number one receiver and the number one running back and basically put together two drives, got two touchdowns back to back and our bet was dead. Just because that's how this, this, this Chiefs team is right now that you're right. Like they're, they're field goal heavy. Like there's a lot of times on their drive that just, things fell apart because of that pressure you talked about. They just have such a bad offensive line right now that. Yeah, come playoff time, I mean, are people really going to be betting against this Chiefs team? I think everyone's got the reaction from last year, but right now as we sit here, I agree with you, Chad. It's like who are this Chiefs team getting over three points against basically anybody with a pulse. And the Cleveland Browns, as bad as they've looked, they've had a pulse. I mean they've just been unlucky. It feels like these last couple of weeks. So maybe we just avoid this game and like take a break from betting the Browns or the Chiefs just because it's. Yeah, it's two bad weeks in a row from this Browns team. And you know the Chiefs it's on the historical run. Right. Like we were betting a lot of stuff we bet into last week. It was the same thing where I understood your position on the Giants. Like eventually the book's going to catch up to it. They not covered in seven straight games. I think up to last week's point. Same with this Chiefs team. It's the longest stint of Andy Reid's career. Seven straight, no covers. And I saw it might have been Evan had some crazy stat about there's never been a team in the wild card era since in the super bowl era that's won the super bowl that has lost seven straight against the spread. So once again the Chiefs are going against something historical we've never seen before. And it's the Mahomes factor though. It's just like even that game they were going to not cover. You knew they were going to win. Right. That's how I felt. So it's like.
- [18:45]
Jason Demers
Well, because when they get down to four minutes and they've got the ball.
- [18:49]
Adnan Virk
Yeah.
- [18:49]
Jason Demers
They know exactly how to play it. And they're playing Collins Worth like you know, he, he was teasing a little bit like they'd be better off if they scored a touchdown unless they can get the clock. And I'm like no, they're not going to score a touchdown. They're going to do exactly what they're supposed to do. They're going to run the clock down and they look Jim Harbaugh taking all three timeouts before the two minute warning sort of gave them that opportunity and took the COVID completely off the table. I knew we were going to lose that game. I knew it.
- [19:23]
Adnan Virk
Yeah. And they doing through so it's. That's just the season it's been for this Chiefs. They're just different than anything we've seen before. And yeah you're our initial read on taking the six and a half obviously was right. It's a lot of books removed the four. So if you do like Cleveland grab the four and a half because I'm with Chad I could see this easily getting down to three and a half. Just because the public's totally out on this team. And I think professional betters know they don't need a rush to take this Chiefs team, that this number will keep coming down.
- [19:48]
Jason Demers
It does feel a little bit. I agree with you. We've had the same feeling about the Steelers, which we'll talk about with the Eagles. Like, how much can we keep pressing our luck? Right.
- [20:01]
Adnan Virk
Because it always goes the other way and we know that it will.
- [20:03]
Jason Demers
Like we talk about these things, they're at their best 62, 63%, which means 3.8 times out of 10 you're losing that bet. And we just haven't found the windows where those bets are losing yet.
- [20:20]
Adnan Virk
Yeah.
- [20:21]
Jason Demers
And so it is a little bit scary to like, keep going to that well again and again again. Or we're doing what you tell us we're always doing. We're just overthinking this shit. And like, it's under three. It's under three. It's. If it's. If it's over three, you bet against Mahomes. If it's under three, you bet on the homes. Maybe. Maybe we're being idiots. Who knows? But that's. That's the rule. Let's recap the results of week 14. Our week 13. No. Let's recap the results of week 14 in the favorites podcast $100,000 pro football pick em contest. Our week 14 first place winner, D. Windzenberg. An unprecedented three entries went five zero and nailed the Monday Night Football tiebreaker. But D. Windzenberg submitted first. So that is the winner. He or she is the winner of our maximum $2,000 weekly prize. Incredible performance. And as always, our producer Matt Mitchell has selected his Producers cup award to the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest. Have you heard about the lonesome loser? He's a loser, but he still keeps on trying. This week's Producer cup goes to Sean L.P. curtis, who went 05 and missed the tiebreaker by 375 yards. Sean, please email our producer@podcastsctionnetwork.com to claim your prize. Miami. Houston. Houston's a three and a half point favorite at bet365. I will say the line moved from two and a half to three on Sunday. Moved back to two and a half at most books, but it is still minus three at bet365. This. This was a game yesterday. Simon. I don't know if you felt this when you were, when you were doing your film study, but as I was doing my Research. I kept looking for reasons to like the Texans. And like, eventually I said to myself, do I like the Dolphins at two and a half? And it seemed like the wise guys do because they moved the line from three to two and a half.
- [22:49]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, I would say the wise guys to me seem like they like Miami at three and then not so much at two and a half.
- [22:55]
Jason Demers
So.
- [22:55]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, I agree with your sentiment there. Yeah, I'm having a tough time this one too. Cause I just think the Texans are just a better team and I trust them more. Honestly, at this point, Miami, we've seen them beat up on bad teams and then kind of struggle or being consistent against, you know, good opponents. And you know that that was the type of game last week that we talked about like Tua. He, he. He is pretty special. And we've seen this season now he's had a couple of games where he's willed his team to a couple of victories. And you know, like again, we. We probably should took too lightly. We talked about was that Bills game. He had his team in that game, a game they usually get blown out in, that they only lost by 6. He upset this Rams team. It looks like a juggernaut. And you know, again, a late touchdown score by him. So yeah, it's a tough one. Chad, I'm with you. It's like at three. I'm seeing a couple public books right now and are still at three. That, that seems like. That's right. Like this number feels right at that number and at that number. I would take Miami, but it's not one I'm really banging the table for as we sit here right now.
- [23:57]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I was just surprised. Sometimes I just like the validation. I'll just be honest. Like, you do the work during the day, you form an opinion, and all of a sudden you're like, oh God, do I actually like this team?
- [24:12]
Adnan Virk
Yeah.
- [24:13]
Jason Demers
And then I saw the number move after all that, I'm like, wow, maybe I do like this team. Just for clarity. Like, what I saw was Miami's red zone offense is top 10. I was surprised it was as high because I feel like. And this is just bias, right? We've talked about this. The Dolphins offense is just not very physical. And so you. They get down in the red zone and you think they're going to struggle, but it turns out they don't. Maybe we just felt this way because of how they played against the Jets. Red zone defense is top six. And so we know Miami will be able to dinkin Duncan's way down the field against a middling Texans defense this year. So I just sort of thought, I think they can move the ball and at three it's probably the right side, but agree with you. Two and a half. Not the flavor for me.
- [25:13]
Adnan Virk
Yeah.
- [25:14]
Jason Demers
And I don't like the Texans at two and a half. Like I don't think I like the Texans anymore.
- [25:18]
Adnan Virk
That's fair. But that's what's worrying me a little bit is that maybe we've gone too far on the just because I think you agree that like there's just something off about their offense and their offensive line right now. And like that CJ just has not looked the same this year. Same. Same thing. We had a problem with Jordan Love. They're just, they're, they're kind of going through that Year two slump. Right. And they're we've seen it this season where Jordan Love looks like he's coming out the other side of it. I still know where CJ's at. He just has not looked in rhythm all season.
- [25:44]
Jason Demers
I just want to make sure we're both agreeing that there's no value in this game, that it's not going to be a game that we particularly like. I don't see it moving out of this two and a half to three range. And so I want to make sure that you and I are clearly communicating because I think we crossed wires on the Panthers and ended up not putting them in the contest when we both kind of thought we should because we were waiting on a certain number and that might not have been the case. Fair, Simon we can hear the crackling of the Yule logs. We can taste the eggnog. The holiday season is upon us and with over 20 million pairs sold and thousands of five star reviews, we can make the Gift of Tommy John our newest holiday tradition. It always feels good to give a thoughtful gift, but it feels great to give Tommy John upgrade someone's life with breathable comfort and deliver those special cringle tingles all year long. Simon, why will you be giving the Gift of Tommy John this season?
- [26:49]
Adnan Virk
It's the gift that lasts.
- [26:51]
Jason Demers
Shop tommyjohn.com favorites right now for the holidays and get 30% off site wide. Save 30% at tommyjohn.com favorites tommyjohn.com favorites Cincinnati is a five point favorite on the road at Tennessee went from five to four and a half back up to five. The Bengals were lucky to escape with a win last night. They're such an incomplete football team like you watch Joe Burrow if he can throw it To Jamar Chase. He's great. And like they can't really run the ball so they don't get any play action. They can't stop the run. The Cowboys slashed their way through Cincy's defense on Monday Night Football. The problem is the Titans are bad on offense in just about every category as the Bengals are on defense. Bengals are 30th in red zone as a defense. Titans offense is 27th. The Bengals can't stop teams on third down. The Titans can't convert. Bengals are 30th in points allowed. Titans are 30th in points scored, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. You get my drift, My instinct and I don't think this is a game we're going to play. Eileen. Titans because I think their defense may emphasize may be able to stop the Bengals and Will Lettuce may be able to surprise their craptastic defensive backfield.
- [28:28]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, I agree with everything you said. It feels like this is a game where you throw out the numbers and it's simply are you here to fade the public and bet with the sports books? Because Cincinnati Bengals will be the number one teased team their moneyline with every parlay. Everyone, everyone knows they got away with one last night. Like we just talked about that. Not that Dallas was outplaying them. It feels like they were in some, in some aspects of that game. And the biggest one was Joe Burrow was just getting hit after hit after hit, every drop. Even after his completions. He was getting rocked. And you know, the refs missing brutal calls like hits to the helmets, him getting face masked. The refs were just awful last night. Let him get beat up. We saw they put on a sleeve on his knee. Might have been midway through the fourth quarter like this. This man is just getting abused. And you know, like you just said, this matchup, it's not the best for Tennessee because of what their strengths are defensively. But you're right, like I just have such little faith right now. Will Levis and this offense in Tennessee, you know, they basically had a gift last week and they just could not capitalize on their. All their opportunities against that Jaguars Demon. They lost it. Cause they're just a bad team that feels like they're poorly coached. And yeah, this is another game where it really is. It's just like your Giants bet last week, Chad.
- [29:46]
Jason Demers
You're.
- [29:46]
Adnan Virk
You're simply playing the number, playing the laws of averages. And this number should be three. Three and a half. Like you just said, it's five at most books. Yes, there's value there. Are we really going to force this one in? Cause we have been betting ugly dogs and like we talked about, we've just been getting burned this year by ugly dogs and against superior teams. Are. Is this really superior team in the Cincinnati team? Like, I feel like you nailed it. Just saying how they got lucky. So it's a tough one, Chad. Like, I really want to take it, but I'm having a lot of reservations here just because it is Will Levis and he's just burned us so many times this year.
- [30:22]
Jason Demers
I feel like the worm has turned a little bit for us the past few weeks in betting the ugly dogs.
- [30:29]
Adnan Virk
We only bet two dogs last week. We went Owen two.
- [30:32]
Jason Demers
Yeah, but. But in the week before that, definitely. Yeah.
- [30:36]
Adnan Virk
I'm just saying we've adjusted. We've been betting more favorites and that's the only thing covering for us. These fucking dogs, man, have just been killing us.
- [30:43]
Jason Demers
Isn't that insane? Why do I feel like things have been going better for us?
- [30:47]
Adnan Virk
I do feel as we've had winning weeks. But like that last week was just the is typical. Is like our stupid favorites came through and our dogs we love, we're just dead. Dead on arrival.
- [30:58]
Jason Demers
Browns were never dead. Browns were never dead. That's.
- [31:01]
Adnan Virk
My God.
- [31:02]
Jason Demers
You're always in it. Which might bring us right back. Tibetan Jamis plus four and a half against the Kansas City Chiefs. I don't know. There's a part of me that is feeling confident. Esque on the Titans.
- [31:19]
Adnan Virk
We know it's the spot where you're supposed to hit. So yeah, maybe Thursday we'll have more confidence. But we sit here right now. This is. I don't know if you're making exact, but I'm not making the assignment says.
- [31:26]
Jason Demers
Oh, God, no, not even close. Also at risk of Matt Mitchell grinching me and just being an asshole if I choose a team that I feel really strongly about that he thinks people are going to hate.
- [31:39]
Adnan Virk
Look.
- [31:39]
Jason Demers
But I do think you bet on the Saints here. Like, do you? It's like it was at seven and a half.
- [31:44]
Adnan Virk
Yeah.
- [31:45]
Jason Demers
It's moved to seven. It's clearly a wise guy. Could be you for all I know. No Saints.
- [31:51]
Adnan Virk
I'm on Washington, surprisingly.
- [31:53]
Jason Demers
Wow. So Derek Carr has a concussion where a fractured wrist or both.
- [31:57]
Adnan Virk
Yeah.
- [31:57]
Jason Demers
Taysom Hill is out.
- [31:59]
Adnan Virk
Yes.
- [31:59]
Jason Demers
That is their whole offense.
- [32:01]
Adnan Virk
Yes.
- [32:01]
Jason Demers
There is one trend sort of fading the team that is covering by five points or more. When you do that, you win at a 56% clip. That's what you can do against The Commanders. There's one other game that fits that this week but I actually, I don't have a strong opinion on this game. I'm curious to hear why you, why you feel strongly about the commanders.
- [32:26]
Adnan Virk
It's honestly just because how they performed against bad teams this season. They're a team we talk all the time. There's certain teams that you know that just their offense the way they are, they just roll teams once they get rolling.
- [32:37]
Jason Demers
Right.
- [32:37]
Adnan Virk
That commanders feel like that team that, you know they had a brutal stretch there, you know he was banged up, they got really lucky on that. Failed married or hail Miller should say. But you know they played the Giants, I think they covered by five and then they had a run of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Dallas and then they just smoked that Tennessee team. Right. Like let me look up the score. It was yeah, 42, 19 when they played Tennessee. Now they went on a bi week. So I'm with you that like if this was a couple weeks ago when I still had worries about Jane Daniels being healthy and there's you know, a lot of the stuff we talk about just the regression we expected from that offense. We've seen now though when they can run the ball and get things moving and they're healthy, they're just a really high powered offense. So yeah, this could be the game where I'm you know, walking into and somehow New Orleans defense does step up here. But I think you're in agreeance if they put up 21 and it's midway through the third quarter. I just can't see a world where Desmond Ritter, whoever's quarterback for the Saints can come back from being down, let alone 7 points, 10 points or anything like that. So yeah, just it feels like the type of game where they just Washington rol and that's why they did give us a seven and a half because they're just like someone please come and bet the Saints team. We need this money so it makes sense they'd move it. Now it's back down. Like you said, the professionals bet it. It's. It's a game I'm happy to sit out.
- [33:58]
Jason Demers
I think you're confusing Spencer Rattler for Desmond Ritter. We do have a huge Desmond Ritter spot.
- [34:06]
Adnan Virk
Oh yes, yes, yes, yes.
- [34:07]
Jason Demers
This week however, I think it's going.
- [34:09]
Adnan Virk
To be his former team. You're right.
- [34:11]
Jason Demers
Jake Hayner for the Saints who came in last week when, when Derek Carr was hurt and he's the guy who replace Spencer Rattler when early in the season when he was terrible. Yeah, I, I don't I can't argue with anything you're saying other than you play the bad team. Getting seven at home against the team, that is going to be such a heat that, I mean, it's the, it's the chalky. It might be the chalkiest play on the board when we get down to it.
- [34:42]
Adnan Virk
I look at spot, they have Philly on deck next week. Like I'm telling you, the old school guys, they're going to hit this. Like you're saying on this New Orleans spot. I'm just, man, is it not old school though?
- [34:51]
Jason Demers
You know what you are? You're a new school. You're a modern age gambler. You can make adjustments. You don't. You don't have to be beholden to old school trends. That's not how you roll, Simon.
- [35:06]
Adnan Virk
You're your own man now. I mean, obviously we never get to world news here, but I'm feeling pretty good as a millennial. At least my generation didn't try to assassinate a president and have a hitman take out a CEO of a health company. So millennials are doing good. Gen Z on the other side. What the fuck is going on with Gen Z, Chad?
- [35:26]
Jason Demers
Jesus Christ, Simon. I guess my point is this feels like, this feels like a spot to play the Saints. New York jets at Jacksonville. Jacksonville plus three and a half. You know what? The streak is over. The jets were dogs this past week. Finally they're back to being favorites. Thank God the world has come back to its senses. It's spinning on its axis one more time. How do we handicap this game? Interim coach versus a lame duck coach. Backup QB versus an over the hill qb. One QB who won a game he should have lost in Mac Jones. One QB and lost a game he should have won in Aaron Rodgers. The number's gone up. Went from three to three and a half. Like somebody likes the jets in this spot.
- [36:23]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, it's the same group of professionals that have liked them every week. And once again they're moving the number for us and they're giving us value. Like, I would have been right there with you. I probably would have passed. Unless the Jaguars coming off a win. But aren't we seeing a little pattern here with Mack Jones and three and a half?
- [36:37]
Jason Demers
Yep.
- [36:38]
Adnan Virk
Like should we not overthink and just take the three and a half when they're.
- [36:41]
Jason Demers
Yep.
- [36:41]
Adnan Virk
When Mack Jones is playing against a bad team, it seems like he's going to keep us in it. Whether, you know, that Tennessee game, like they just did absolutely nothing for three quarters. They scored 1010 points in the fourth quarter and they won that game outright. Which is just crazy to think. No points the entire game. In the fourth quarter they scored 10 points. You know, maybe. Am I overacting too much to a divisional game? Could be. That's fair. But the, the Jets, I don't know. Even when we were losing, Chad, like we talked about last week, I never felt in doubt. I felt like the jets were going to jets eventually. So we'll bet this. Maybe we'll get slapped in the face and I might force us to put this in the contest at three and a half. But it's like we're getting a good number once again against an overvalued jets team that they're in the same exact spot as Jaguars team. Like at least we've seen the Jaguars team playing hard. This jets team's coming off. You can't have a more deflating loss. And now they're on. You know, they're coming back home for this game where it's like, I just can't imagine the fans. The only thing that's going to hesitation. Evan had those amazing stats about how much better Rogers has been at home than on the road. And that's coming off his best road game of the season. Like it was very bizarre. So yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm happy to take the Jags at three and a half, but if this was two and a half in contest, I just avoid this one.
- [38:01]
Jason Demers
Hold on one sec. Because I want to make sure isn't this game in. This game is in Jacksonville.
- [38:08]
Adnan Virk
Yes, yes. Sorry, sorry. That's what I meant though. They're, they're back to back road games. It's just, I feel like a brutal spot for this jets team.
- [38:14]
Jason Demers
Yeah. And also you know what, they're a bad team. Like, like we're going to talk about this. I don't think there's two teams getting more attention for being bad teams this year than the jets and the Bears. And it's stunning to me that these wise guys, whoever they are, that can be your, your assignment, Simon. Find out who the freak in the syndicate is betting.
- [38:39]
Adnan Virk
I know they are. I mean they're obviously. They're on it though. They hit the six and a half last week on the jets.
- [38:43]
Jason Demers
Literally first time.
- [38:45]
Adnan Virk
I know, but every other week. They're fucking dancing in the book now. Cause they were like, see, I knew it would come around eventually. It's like, yeah, that's why I said though they were just gonna keep hitting black until it Hit fucking black. And it did hit it. They're coming back for more. That's the craziest part. To me. It's like you got away with one, just walk away and they're, they're viewing the opposite. So I, like I said though, I get why they would bet at two and a half. I don't really get the bet at three. To me, the three was the value on the Jags. Now three and a half, that's a ton of value on the Jags, especially crossing that key number.
- [39:14]
Jason Demers
Baltimore at the New York Giants. The New York giants are now 15 point underdogs.
- [39:19]
Adnan Virk
Crazy.
- [39:20]
Jason Demers
The Ravens coming off the by. I will tell you that yesterday afternoon, after Cincy, Tennessee, Washington, New Orleans, jets and Jaguars, I actually was thinking to myself, I would just love it if all of these teams had a buy, like if we didn't have to research them, talk about them. 15 points in the NFL is to me the equivalent of 25 or 30 points in college football. Like that's, that's how big it is. It's, it's rare. Maybe Evan can figure this out while we're on the, on the call. You can throw it in the chat. Like how many times has There been a 15 point favorite in the past 15 years? You know it's going to be the Patriots a bunch of times against the Dolphins at, you know, the mid 2010s. But this is what happens when Drew Luck starts 08, goes 21 of 49, completes 43% of his passes. And even most of those come like in the final two drives when the Giants are on their way to winning, maybe at least covering as. As one of us expected them to do. What is your true power rating for this game?
- [40:41]
Adnan Virk
It's right like I had it at 14 and a half. The bump up to 15 now is it. That makes sense to me. Like I, the books move this up to 17. I, I would still be tempted, honestly, take the Ravens just because what you just talked about. Drew Lock is maybe one of the worst quarterbacks I've watched and we've seen a lot of bad quarterback play. I mean, at one point he had started that game, I think 0 for 9 or like over 10 against.
- [41:04]
Jason Demers
Oh, for 8. He started over 8.
- [41:06]
Adnan Virk
Yes. So, oh man, this is just a Ravens team that we think are pretty good coming off a bye week after a really bad loss to Philadelphia. Like you would expect Lamar to put up his classic four touchdowns. Like I can already see Stucky being like Ravens first half. Take that number, whatever the line is Cause that's just. That's this kind of spot for this Ravens team to come out and just whoop this team. You know, they haven't had too many blowouts this year, right? That. That could be the hesitation that, like, you know, maybe we're overrating this Ravens team. They're not the Ravens team of the past that would just roll and blow out these teams, but they can't.
- [41:46]
Jason Demers
They can't stop the pass. That's kind of my fear on this is the Giants are down three touchdowns and there's two minutes left in the game, and Drew Lock just starts fearlessly uncorking. And instead of all those balls going incomplete or being intercepted, four of them are caught and they score with 30 seconds left. And yeah, bang, open the back door because the lion, the Ravens defense is just so bad against the pass, like, truly terrible, one of the worst in the league. So that. That's like the fear here.
- [42:23]
Adnan Virk
And I agree with that. That's what I was going to say. Like, we've only really seen it because they've had a really hard schedule. And if you look at the Raven schedule, there's a reason I like their owner. But they're p going to end up hitting this over. They're probably going to get the overtime and a half. But just because I looked at their schedule, I thought, man, this is a really tough schedule. We've seen this year that. I mean, they're only really ball win Chad is against Denver. They beat them like 41 to 9 or 41 to 10. And that was a game we talked about like they were going for it on fourth downs and they just didn't bounce their way for Denver and Bo Nicks. Right. That probably would have been a little closer if some things had come through. But it's like this. This is. We've seen now that the Ravens can blow out certain teams in certain matchups. So for us, I don't know if this is going to make our contest because we've. We've played big, big lines like this, but it was literally Detroit at home against inferior teams when they were. Detroit was healthy. Like Detroit's the class of. The class of football right now. We don't really have that same view of this. This team. And I agree with your statement of that's the fear is the back door. So it's the type of bet that if you make, you're going to need them to be up 28 points head into the fourth quarter, this Ravens team, and if not, you're going to be Sweating this bet to the very end.
- [43:28]
Jason Demers
15/Point favorites. This is how good Evan Abrams is and everyone should tell him that. When we're at the Wicked Wolf on Thursday night, everyone tells Evan he's amazing. Everyone asks Matt Mitchell why he's a Grinch. Don't forget Those are the two assignments. 2023, it happened four times. 15 point favorites were two and two against the spread. 2022, it happened three times. The favorites were. 0, 3, 21. It happened seven times. Wow. Eight times. And the favorites were four, three and one. This is the first time there is a 15 plus point favorite on the road since 2021. That was the Buffalo Bills who lost the game against Jacksonville. So you know we got that as a reference point. I will say when I do the some of the research on Mondays I'll go to NFL Next gen stats which anybody can go to NFL.com, you just got to pay like 75 bucks and get access for everything. They will list 24 different head to head metrics for offense and defense, rushing and passing when teams play each other. Of the 24 listed, the Ravens and then they sort of grade it. Is it like a five star advantage meaning it's overwhelmingly in favor of one unit versus the other or a one star where it's a slight favorite between a one star and five star advantage. The Ravens had it for every single category except for one intermediate passing. The Giants are 19th, the Ravens are 29th. So I know like the Giants is with multiple quarterbacks, but that's what made me think Giants are going to be down dink and dunk 15, 20 yards down the field and they score a touchdown. Because that's the one thing the Ravens are worst at. Yeah, irrational fear. Simon, we always have an exec decision.
- [45:35]
Adnan Virk
I have two I really like.
- [45:37]
Jason Demers
All right, well I got, I got two I really like two. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Philadelphia is minus five. This one's taking a jump. Like it went from four and a half on Sunday night to five and a half. Most places it came back down to four and a half nearly everywhere except bet365. So look around, get the five if you like. The Steelers. Look, the Eagles have made some noise the past 24 hours. Brendan Graham. I don't know if you saw this on wip. I did Philadelphia, but he came out and basically said Jalen Hurts and A.J. brown aren't friends anymore. Jalen Hurts, who is A.J. brown's kid's godfather. There was a lot of noise after that game, right? Jalen hurts through for 108 yards. He has the fewest passing attempts of any quarterback starting quarterback in the league this year. He asked AJ Brown point blank what's going on with the offense. He just said one word after the game. Passing, throwing his helmet on the field or on the sideline. Devonte Smith saying, we're not on the same page. Something going on with his offense. Like as good as Saquon is Jalen struggling. And that's been a theme for two years now.
- [46:54]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, I was, I forgot to bring it up cause I had amazing stat for someone like you that's just been hating on Hertz. You'd have him, your top 10 coming to the season. You've been bad mouthing this season before. This weekend him and Josh Allen had literally the same exact stats for total touchdowns, for turnovers, for yards rushing and passing combined. Their stats were literally the exact same. So on one hand, Josh, Josh Allen's the greatest QV ever, having the greatest season ever. And here's Chad just shitting on Hertz, who's having literally the mirror season until this past weekend. Obviously Josh has pulled ahead now with it.
- [47:26]
Jason Demers
Is that true?
- [47:27]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, it was like because. Because Hertz has the cheat code of the 12 rushing touchdowns for the tush push. And now he's even more because they just did it again this past week. But Josh Allen's doing the tush push. Didn't hear much. People shooting on him about it getting pushed into the end zone. Yeah, I think, you know, AJ's a diva. Like I knew AJ was a diva coming in. The Brandon Grant thing is spooky because it's like he didn't say they weren't friends. He's basically saying Jalen hurts is like trying to make things work. And AJ is basically saying fuck off. Like, I don't even talk to you right now. Which is like terrifying. Like, I agree with you. That's, that's, that's not what I want to hear. But it's like, dude, your, your team is the 2 seed. You haven't lost in 7, 8 weeks. Like, it just sucks that people have those type of personalities where it's never good enough, you know, like, keep it in house, just keep your mouth shut. He didn't need to make that sound bite to get everyone going crazy like this, but hopefully they work through it. But like, you know, AJ's in a weird spot where I get. He wants, I guess he wants the ball. But the Eagles are our run first team. They have the best weapon of football right now in Saquon. So it's like if Hertz goes out there and they throw for 300 yards and four touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers and we lose, is that a good thing? Is because AJ is now happy because he got 150 and two touchdowns and a loss. It's like I feel bad for. He doesn't really understand that. Like he. Because I don't know if it was last year, the year before, he had this crazy year with all these touchdowns and a ton of receiving.
- [48:55]
Jason Demers
Yeah.
- [48:55]
Adnan Virk
And that was really fun. But it's like we saw that last year that that didn't work once it got cold out. And like you just said, Jalen hurts. I'm with you. I agree with you. He is not consistent. That that is a weakness of his where he's like a couple other quarterbacks in this league that they need to see a couple of three, four catches in a row to find a rhythm. If they don't get those three, four in a row, he'll put up what he does this past week, whatever it was 11, 19, like he'll just never get in a rhythm. Really passing wise. And the new personality of this Eagles team of just being a run first team is not help that. So I do agree with that. But in this matchup, I mean this number, like we talk, we talked about, it's so telling that who. Who's betting the Eagles? I don't get it. That's why I'll never understand this number. Shouldn't we all bet Pittsburgh and then just let this fall where it may. It's like Pittsburgh earned that respect. And you know, we talked on Sunday. I was a little worried about this number because it's like, what's going on with Pickens now? We've had Tomlin sound bite saying he's probably not going to play. He said it's really doubtful that Pickens plays in this game. Um, you know that, that, that's a big deal. Like that is a big deal against an Eagles defense that is legit. Like obviously their kryptonite is other white guys. Adam Phelan tore them up last week. But overall this has been a really stingy defense. And even against that Ravens team we saw, they, they can make stops when they need to in big time spots. So yeah, it's. It's a game where I know what to do. Chad. I really want to take Pittsburgh. I just am worried I'm missing something here, that maybe I'm overvaluing Pittsburgh and this is the right time to jump off. But why is this number not three Three and a half. That's my biggest issue. To me, it's like, even my model thinks this is too overvalued. So even the human element, take it out of it. It's like, okay, we're supposed to take Pittsburgh here.
- [50:41]
Jason Demers
Mike Tomlin as a road dog of between 4 and 6 points, nearly 65% against the spread. He's basically north of 60% in every category. Breakdown. As a dog, like, I know we're always looking to thread the needle on these things and pick the spot where we think it's going to work. We did it with the Chiefs, you.
- [51:07]
Adnan Virk
Know, this line's fishy, though.
- [51:09]
Jason Demers
It's totally fishy because.
- [51:10]
Adnan Virk
So fishy.
- [51:13]
Jason Demers
It's completely fishy. I worry that the Eagles will react to this week's drama and come out better than ever.
- [51:24]
Adnan Virk
Oh, yeah, that was a loss, that Carolina game. That. That. That feels like a loss in that locker room, right?
- [51:28]
Jason Demers
Yes.
- [51:28]
Adnan Virk
Yeah.
- [51:29]
Jason Demers
100%. They didn't. They are not walking out of that game thinking, yeah, we've won nine in a row. We're still the 2 seed, and we've got the best running back in football. They're not thinking that, but they continue to have a dominant defensive line, and their offensive line is really good. It's why Saquon is second to Josh Allen in the MVP odds. And look, you could. You could. If not for the fact Josh Allen is a quarterback and doing it in dramatic fashion in some really high profile moments, Saquon, the odds should be much closer. Josh Allen is like minus 400. Saquon is plus 400. It should be more like minus 100, you know, plus 200. Because Saquon is leading a team that is number two in the conference, that has a better record, and he's on track to break one of the most sacred records in all of football, which is the total rushing yardage record in a season. Josh Allen's team has three losses. Right. And he's on track to do miraculous things, but how many records is he going to break? He's just going to be a spectacular quarterback who's leading a team that has a really good record. I mean, I don't know. I. I have a Saquon bias. I love the guy. I think he's so fun to watch. Love his attitude. I love his athleticism. I think what he's doing this year is spectacular. I love the fact that he's sticking it to the Giants, but I feel like we got a bet on Tomlin.
- [53:05]
Adnan Virk
Yeah.
- [53:08]
Jason Demers
There's just no reason not to I know.
- [53:10]
Adnan Virk
I hate it because it just feels way too easy. But again, easy winning, like last week, the Chargers felt really way too easy. And that's what was spooking me on that number as well. And every idiot in the world's like, well, this is the spot. You take them. It's. It's. It's over a field goal. You take the Chargers over a field goal against the Chiefs. And same thing with Pittsburgh. It's like everyone I'm talking to, even the book yesterday, this fucking guy at the window goes Pittsburgh. Easiest bet of the week there. No way. They tomlin away, loses by three. It's like, fuck, man, I'm making that same bet. God damn it.
- [53:39]
Jason Demers
I know this. This was my second choice for executive decision. The Steelers. Yeah, but I'm pulling back. If you and I end up having the same game, we. If it's different sides, that just might make it more interesting. But let's just. Let's just see Indianapolis of Denver. Like we talked about this on Sunday night. Just eyeballing it. My first instinct was I liked indie. Right now, Indy is a very public dog. Majority of the tickets there is that same trend that backs the Saints, backs the Colts. Here Denver is a team that has been consistently covering by an average of more than five points per game. When that is happening, you back the underdog. They covered a 56% clip, but I don't have a strong opinion about it. I don't know if you've developed anything over the past few days. I can't my way in, I did.
- [54:31]
Adnan Virk
I hit the Colts. And it was more like, okay, these. These feel like two teams that are fringe playoff teams. And this is the right matchup that this number should not be five. And we've seen it now come down to four and a half forward. A lot of books. Three and a half. Three is another. This game feels like it should be three and a half three. So I do see it settling down there. Cause I just think more professional money will come in on this Colts team. But I'm shocked that you said that early here that people are backing this cold team just because I thought everyone just be so in love that Bo Nicks especially, you know, he got a cover for them against that Cleveland team before he had into the bi week. So maybe it's. Maybe the early money is just professional money. Because I don't know why Joe Public's coming on this. Right. There's other games I see like the Public coming on.
- [55:10]
Jason Demers
Yeah, yeah, for sure.
- [55:11]
Adnan Virk
Yeah. I like the Colts. I'D take it down to three and a half. So if you can still get four and a half or four, that, that to me is good value right now.
- [55:20]
Jason Demers
All right, here we go. I don't know if this is your game, but it's my game.
- [55:24]
Adnan Virk
No.
- [55:25]
Jason Demers
Okay, Buffalo at Detroit.
- [55:28]
Adnan Virk
How about, how about a little kick ass on three? One, two, three. Kick ass.
- [55:33]
Jason Demers
Detroit is now a one and a half point favorite. It's come down from two and a half, down to two, down to one and a half in some spots. This is a very public dog play. Looking at the current numbers, 70% of the tickets are on Buffalo, 41% of the money is on Detroit. So if you think about it, if 70% of the tickets are on Buffalo and 30% are on Detroit, 41% of the money, slightly more lean from a professional point of view on Detroit. Even though this number has been coming down, I'm making the lines my exec decision.
- [56:22]
Adnan Virk
Wow. A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders, execute them.
- [56:31]
Jason Demers
Executive decision.
- [56:33]
Adnan Virk
I'll support it. Just because the line movement boat, I mean it was up to three Sunday night. I said that was way too much that you're getting plus three on a Josh Allen that he will keep you in and no matter what he will backdoor that number because that was too much. You're right though. The movement, public reception lines are the better team on their own extended rest here and they didn't just go through an absolute track meet and they're not on back to back road games. So it feels like a lot of things are working against this Bills team and this was just a brutal, a brutal stretch. Now you are getting incredibly desperate. Josh Allen that this is tend to be a good spot to back him after a loss playing against a team that I don't want to say they overlooked that Rams game, but Josh Allen just wasn't right and neither was obviously that defense to start the game. Like I don't know if he had a three and out or they had a couple of drops to start but all of a sudden it was. I felt like it was 21 to 10 in that game with the Rams here we don't expect that to be this type of game. But like you just said, the value was going to eventually shift back to this Detroit team and you're right now that it's under two. Chad, I'll support that move just because that's a really good number on Detroit team that could we lose this to the best player in football and Josh Allen. Yes. But now that it's under that key number, I could easily see in this. This landed two and we cover this like, it just feels like a really nice number in this spot.
- [57:52]
Jason Demers
Yeah. The teams are so evenly matched. It's strength against weakness on offense and strength against weakness on defense. Lions pass offense is amongst the best in the league. Bill's pass defense is near the bottom. You know, so it's a great match.
- [58:06]
Adnan Virk
I mean this is a great matchup for Lions offense.
- [58:08]
Jason Demers
It's a great matchup and like the Bills rushing offense is elite and the Lions is mediocre. So to me it really comes down to.
- [58:14]
Adnan Virk
Total is 55, Chad.
- [58:16]
Jason Demers
I mean it's insane.
- [58:17]
Adnan Virk
That's insane.
- [58:18]
Jason Demers
It's insane. It's like can the, can the line stop Josh Allen when he improvises? That's really when he's at his best.
- [58:25]
Adnan Virk
Yeah.
- [58:26]
Jason Demers
Dan Campbell strategically versus Sean McDermott. I have a much more, I have much more confidence in Dan Campbell making the right calls to maximize the opportunity to win the game then and you.
- [58:39]
Adnan Virk
Know your bets coming down to a couple fourth downs. That's what you know when you're making that Lions. Right now we know that's what it's coming down to.
- [58:44]
Jason Demers
Lions executing in high variance situations. So with this number like now that it's below 2, I got to take the Lions. That's it. Simon, can you name the best ticketing app in the United States?
- [58:56]
Adnan Virk
Game Time.
- [58:58]
Jason Demers
That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, Game Time. As Simon and all our listeners know, I love going to live games and NFL, NBA, college football, college basketball. Using Game Time is my favorite way to buy tickets. They've got amazing last minute deals on games and concerts and their new feature called Game Time picks that makes getting tickets to see your favorite teams play live even easier. Game Time picks filters out the fluff to show you only incredible deals on great seats so you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets. Speaking of which, I'm opening the Game Time app right now from my house in Connecticut. I can go see the two time defending national champion Yukon Huskies and potentially see their coach Danny Hurley lose a gasket for less than $50. My favorite part about Game Time, they're all in pricing shows me the total costs upfront. No surprises no matter where you live. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, use code FAVORITES for 20 off your first purchase terms apply. Again, create an account, redeem code favorites for 20 off download. Game time today. What time is it? Game time. All right. Tampa Bay at the Chargers. Chargers are three point favorites on Sunday. You said you like Tampa. You liked him last week against the Raiders as an early touchdown favorite.
- [60:23]
Adnan Virk
Yeah.
- [60:24]
Jason Demers
What are you seeing here?
- [60:26]
Adnan Virk
I just keep thinking every week this Tampa team's undervalued, that they don't get the respect they deserve. And it's all because of the Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injuries that happened weeks ago and that they're so right, by the way.
- [60:37]
Jason Demers
You're so right. Like, I keep thinking about this game and I'm thinking, who are these people? Why do they deserve to be even this close? And I keep forgetting that Mike Evans is back hurdling people now.
- [60:49]
Adnan Virk
And the only way for me is Bucky Irving, who to me has been the lifeblood of this team. He was banged up. I think he played like five snaps last week. And they took him out because I think they quickly realized, what are we doing here? Why are we playing him in this game where we're just going to roll these guys? Now, it did get close, right? There was a couple bad turnovers by, you know, Baker. And we talk about that when we bet Baker. We. It. We don't know what game we're getting. He's like, got the Jamie Swinson thing where he. If when Baker's bad, he is truly bad. When he's on, he is lights out perfect. And we've seen this season this Bucks team that they kind of played the level of their competition. And on the flip side, this Chargers team feels a little overrated because they did cover that when they're. When they are missing all those guys. Now, if they're once again going to be out, be out without their number one receiver and their number one running back against a Buccaneers team that is relatively healthy coming into this matchup. I just feel like this was going to be a close game throughout. Like, this is just two teams that all season have just grinded out ugly close games in matchups. So I just think three's too much. I have this game closer to a pick. I have the. I honestly have the Chargers minus one just because of Herbert. He's just been playing so well in certain spots this season where it's like he deserves that respect, that even with those injuries to the offense, he obviously can still move the ball himself. But overall, they're playing against now another Buccaneers team that's a good playoff team and, like, they're leaving their division right now. And I just don't think they're getting respect. Like, even when I look in the action app, the Met, the money and the bets right now are still coming on this Chargers team. So, yeah, I like this matchup for this Bucks team. Not just offensively, but defensively. I think there are ways for them to get stops and attack this Chargers team. And yeah, Chad, it's. It's just a key number of three. I just like that number.
- [62:37]
Jason Demers
Do we wait to see if it gets to three and a half with the activity that's coming in in the Chargers?
- [62:44]
Adnan Virk
Yeah. I'd be shocked if the books moved there. Cause I feel like they would get a ton of Tampa money like this. This, to me feels right. Cause they did a couple books, did go to two and a half, and they took a lot of Chargers money and they just moved it right back to three. So it does feel like that the type of line that the. The books will just let the betting public decide where this goes.
- [63:01]
Jason Demers
New England at Arizona. Arizona's a five and a half point favorite. I was actually surprised that bookmaker bookmakers made it close to seven on Sunday night. There were some sevens out there on Sunday, mostly six and a half. It's moved down to five and a half. It's like, I get the move, but now it just feels like it's in a dead zone where I have no opinion.
- [63:28]
Adnan Virk
That's fair. I honestly wanted to fade New England here because, like, to me, that 7 did feel high, but it felt right because we've seen now that they. I don't want to say they're a different team on the road, but it is tough for Drake May. Right. Like, you know, being a rookie that he is. You know, they went to Jacksonville, they got blown out. I don't even know. It was. It was. It was like 30 to 12, something crazy like that. And we saw that Miami game. They lost 34 to 15. Um, there's just been times where he's gone on the road. He's really struggling now. There are outliers, right? They went to Chicago. They won 19 to 3. But we already talked about. We thought we had that more to do with the coaching than anything else. And this Arizona team, I don't know, it feels like even though the pitchers coming off the bye week, I just like. It feels like they're a good team that's desperate now playing against a bad team that I just don't think they're good. Like, I really don't like New England. I get their identity of being able to run the ball. And Drake May having big plays downfield and I think he has the highest average per rush right now in the season where when he does run he runs for like 10 yards. But man, this feels like the Lions move so much that it's tempting me to buy Arizona. So I'm going to wait, take some sharp calls, see what the pros are doing on this one because that's clearly really smart money. That's moved that all the way down from seven to five and a half to a lot of books now Chad are showing four and a half. So yeah, this number just keeps coming down.
- [64:51]
Jason Demers
It's weird to me. Like my note about the Patriots, that's why I didn't really have a strong opinion on this is that at this point it's Drake May scrambling for dear life and hoping he can improvise into a great play. By the way, another reason why Josh Allen probably shouldn't win MVP over a record setting Saquon Barkley. Josh Allen's not even the best scrambling quarterback in his division. Drake May.
- [65:20]
Adnan Virk
Oh my God. Oh my God.
- [65:24]
Jason Demers
Clearly nobody knows what they're talking about. No one's looking at the numbers. Numbers never lie. Green Bay at Seattle. Seattle's a three point dog. I lean Seattle on Sunday night and this is a massive public dog right now based on the current tickets it seems like, and you said this on Sunday, the wise guys are leaning towards the packers, one of the bigger Pro Joe splits and I think it might be heading to three and a half. So wise guys moving the bookmakers in that direction. The one thing that scares me about the Seahawks, the Packers this year, for whatever reason, they are a ball hawking defensive unit and Geno Smith has the second most interceptions in the NFL.
- [66:08]
Adnan Virk
Simon says go grab Green Bay minus two and a half right now. When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says. Couple big public books still up. Two and a half. I love this Sunday. I didn't really get it cause I didn't know why it wasn't three and Chad just said it like it. Clearly the public has a side they like and it's the Seahawks. I don't know why they're underrating this Green Bay team who just played so well on Thursday night against the Lions that we've just. I don't know, I feel like maybe I'm getting sucked into our deal. Chad. But anytime the NFC north is playing outside their division now and they're under a three under a field goal, you have to take them. They're. What is it, 28 to 3 outside their division this season. It's incredible how well that's not including the Bears. Obviously this is just for the Green Bay Vikings and Lions. But no, it's, it's crazy. So to me, I love the matchup for Green Bay. I think their offense can move, we'll be able to move the ball against the Seahawks defense that I just feel like a little overrated right now. They've had kind of a couple of things break their way and I do agree they've been playing better. But look at the con, the competition they've been going up against. This is going to be a really, really great test for them. Just because we've seen all the all season. Lafleur, he just has such great scripts, like game scripts and he knows the exact time to call certain plays. And you know, even, even when the, the Green Bay doesn't have that many possessions like they did against the lines, you still maximize the possessions they did have. And yeah, this matchup, to me it's all about the number. Like I really love Green Bay. I was going to make us put it in no matter what. If it was under three, I hope you're wrong. If this is three and a half in the contest, I don't know confident I'm taking Green Bay minus three and a half in the contest. But two and a half, it's like must be in. This is a great spot, great number on a really good team that are desperate. They are so desperate in this spot because of that loss last week to that Lions team. So it all matches up really well scheme wise for this Green Bay team.
- [68:09]
Jason Demers
Really interesting. I'm looking at our notes right now. I'm feeling like if we can get a good number on Detroit, a good number on Green Bay, we've got strong opinions on at least two of the games that we would play and then we've got like fearful opinions on the Browns, on the Steelers, you know, the Jaguars.
- [68:31]
Adnan Virk
We have some ugly dogs we do like this week. But yeah, right now me and you are feeling definitely more confident about favorite betting.
- [68:37]
Jason Demers
Well, here's a, here's a wild card for you. Chicago Bears are seven point underdogs at Minnesota. Forget about my Bears bias. Like strictly speaking from a market point of view, isn't this an inflated line like like I said along with the jets, there's not another team in the NFL this year whose failures are more discussed, highlighted, debated, whose future is a hotter topic than the Chicago Bears. I think that has a huge impact on the line. I think it has a huge impact on how bookmakers think the public is viewing this team. Don't forget that that is the baseline for bookmaking. What do bookmakers think the public is going to think? And they set the number accordingly to try to trap public bettors into making decisions that are in favor of the book. Now they are coming off a legit ass kicking while the Vikings doubled up the Falcons. The bookmakers are telling me that they expect the public to come in on the Vikings at no matter what the number because of the perception of the Bears and because of what the Vikings have been doing. Why aren't I betting the Bears here?
- [70:03]
Adnan Virk
I don't know. Maybe because it is something we talked about too, where the splits aren't great for Caleb Williams on the road compared to his home plays. He's just been a different QB on the road compared at home. And obviously this is a team that's lost seven straight games. This is their third straight road game, which is obviously tough on a team, especially one that is coming off two straight road losses. And Minnesota, they did take the foot off the gas last time they played. And I don't think that's going to happen here, Chad. Like they were up 14 that fourth quarter, came back that game go to OT. I think it did go to overtime and they had to squeak out a field goal just to beat that Bears team. So I just can't see them doing that again this week. Like, I feel like this is the type of game where, you know, coach of the year Kevin O'Connell just beats the shit out of the Bears if he can and just run the score up. But my biggest reason I want to fade the Vikings is just because of Sam Darnold coming off whatever. That was a five touchdown perfect game. Like it's, it's really tough. Cause I'm right there with you. I'm. I'm looking for reasons to take this Bears team and maybe I just should just give up and stop overthinking, just take the seven. But it's like, why is this number so big? I'm in total agreements with you. And it's just, maybe it's just because of everything I just said that this is three straight road games for the Bears. They haven't won in seven weeks. Any normal team, that's going to wear on you, wear on your soul. And you saw that last week. They looked totally lost even though Caleb didn't stop trying.
- [71:28]
Jason Demers
Right.
- [71:28]
Adnan Virk
He came on the second half thrown and they put up a good fight. But yeah, this is two totally different organizations right now. Like One is just totally surprised, feeling great, feeling on top of the other one is just totally disappointed. You know, we joked about coming in the season. Their win total was nine and a half. On the Bears, it was six and a half for this Vikings team. I mean, just totally different opposite sides of the world at this point of the season. So yeah, Chad, this is one I'm, I'll stay away from right now. But I'm with you. My initial gut reaction was like, just take the seven. Don't overthink it.
- [72:00]
Jason Demers
You can't have one without the other. You can't have the Vikings be inflated and look for that opportunity and not believe that the Bears are undervalued in this spot. That's how the number gets to seven. If you don't have both things, then the number's probably closer to say, four and a half or five. So I'm not like, I don't feel strongly we have to get this one in. But to me, this was the best example of seeing a buy low. A buy low, sell high scenario for this week slate.
- [72:34]
Adnan Virk
So I, the Bears, again give credit to the Bears that they have played great in their division. Like that Green Bay game. They lost 2019 against Minnesota, they lost 30 to 27 against Detroit, they lost 23 to 20 all three of those games. They easily could have flipped them one. That's why they fired their head coach. So it is an interesting spot.
- [72:50]
Jason Demers
Look, the last game, Atlanta, the Raiders. Raiders are four and a half. This is the Desmond Ritter revenge game. Yeah. Or it's the Kirk Cousins gets healthy game. Or it's the game you don't pay attention to because you're watching the Bears and the Vikings.
- [73:06]
Adnan Virk
I mean, we obviously don't have to spend that much time on here. We'll get out of here just so we get right onto the mark for Matt Mitchell here. But yeah, I, I look at this one as I'll take Atlanta and I won't watch his second list game. It's just, how does Atlanta not bounce back here? Kirk hasn't thrown a touchdown. It feels like four or five weeks. This is the perfect get right spot against a Raiders team that you know, should have faded them last week, pissed we didn't. Cause that was a spot. Anytime they, they play tough against the Chiefs, you just fade in the following week, this Raiders team against the Falcons, you know, this is just a bad matchup overall for the Raiders. So yeah, I'll take the Falcons. But not anything like in our contest or anything.
- [73:43]
Jason Demers
No, it's terrible as a reminder. The Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get 150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page 11am Eastern Thursday to talk our week 15 best bets. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods Rate Review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [75:05]
Adnan Virk
How do you feel when you switch to Geico and save on your car insurance? It's like going to work on one Thursday morning and thinking to yourself, just one more day until Friday. But then somebody in the elevator says, happy Fri. Yay. Then you check your phone quickly and discover today is actually Friday. So yes, Happy Friday. Random stranger in the elevator. Happy Friday indeed. Yep, switching and saving with Geico feels just like that. Get more with Geico. What's up everybody? Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers. Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out. Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together to jab at the sport that we love. Tons of guests are going to join in, too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies. We're talking TV, food, and an AD's favorite wrestling. It's all on le Table. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [76:07]
Jason Demers
Hey everyone, I'm Madison Packer, a pro hockey veteran going on my 10th season in New York.
- [76:13]
Adnan Virk
And I'm Anya Packer, a former pro hockey player and now a full Madison Packer. Stan, Anya and I met through hockey.
- [76:19]
Jason Demers
And now we're married and moms to two awesome toddlers, ages 2 and 4.
- [76:23]
Adnan Virk
And we're excited about our new podcast, Moms who Puck, which talks about everything from pro hockey to professional women's athletes to raising children and all the messiness in between. So listen to Moms who puck on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Miles Gray. And I'm Jack O'Brien. We're the hosts of the Daily Zeitgeist, and we want to tell you about Miles Jack Jack Got Mad Boosties podcast from I Heart Radio. We nailed that. This is a weekly podcast about all the amazing moments that keep all of us NBA fans coming back for more. Basically, if if you love basketball and you like to laugh, listen to Miles and Jack Got Mad Boosties, an NBA podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Brought to you by Hypnotic Happy holidays from me, Michael Rapaport, and my gift to you is a free subscription to the I Am Rapaport Stereo podcast, where I discuss entertainment, sports, politics, politics, and anything and everything that catches my attention. I am here to call it as I see it, and there's a whole lot of things catching my eyes these days. Listen to the I Am Rappaport Stereo podcast on the iHeartRadio app Apple podcast, and wherever you get your podcast.