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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
Holiday magic is in the air and DSW's got all the shoes to make your season extra merry. Believe you've got parties to attend and list to check twice. So DSW is taking care of the details like gifts to make their eyes all aglow. Styles that bring joy to your world, brands everyone wants like Ugg, Nike, Birkenstock and more and deals to make your budget bright. Find the perfect shoes for you and yours at a DSW store near you or dsw.com Thursday Night Football is on.
- [00:33]
Simon Hunter
And it's only on Prime Video makes.
- [00:35]
Chad Millman
The catch Touchdown this week the Denver Broncos visit the Los Angeles Chargers in a game with big playoff implications. This is unbelievable. Coverage begins with TNF tonight. Not a Prime member. Sign up for a 30 day free trial to stream the game. It's the Broncos and Chargers Thursday only on Prime Video.
- [00:54]
Matt Mitchell
Restrictions apply.
- [00:54]
Chad Millman
See Amazon.com amazonprime for details.
- [00:58]
Del Taco Ad
The flavor, the tradition and the spirit of Carne Asada lives on at Del Taco. Join the Asada today with Del Taco's new limited time half pound Chipotle Carne Asada Steak Burrito packed with sweet, spicy and smoky flavor. Wrapped up and grilled to perfection, the whole Carne Asada steak menu delivers the bold flavors you crave with epic burritos, loaded fries and street tacos starting at just $2.99 only at Del Taco.
- [01:26]
Adnan Virk
What's up everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [01:32]
Simon Hunter
Jason Demers here, And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [01:37]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
- [01:41]
Simon Hunter
Tons of guests are going to join in too. But we're not just gonna be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies. We're talking tv, food and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on Le table.
- [01:51]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:59]
Justin Penic
What's up everyone? It's Justin Penic from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays, breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app Apple PODC. Wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did.
- [02:38]
Matt Mitchell
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Week 16 episode, the Tuesday episode where we break down the entire slate of NFL games. We will discuss our exact decision and our Simon says start to narrow down the options for our fav fives to put in The Favorites Podcast $100,000 Pro Football Pick em Contest Boy Last week Blue Simon and I got a little testy with each other on Sunday night because we were.04 heading into the Sunday night game. The Green Bay packers saved our week, kept us from an over. They did try their best to let the Seahawks creep back into it in the second half. We turn the page. We fire away. We move on. I was pumped to start making some bets, started to see some opportunities this morning when I was finishing my research. Live from our Tommy John Home Studios, I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [03:48]
Chad Millman
Hello Chad. How we doing?
- [03:50]
Matt Mitchell
Dude, you got to keep a good attitude when all this is going on and it helps when we're coming out of our live event with listeners this past Thursday. And I got to say I love our listeners. They are like, they are nice, they are kind, they are funny, they got great attitudes, they have the right perspective. Everybody who visited with us at the event at the Wicked Wolf in Philly, we had, you know, hundreds of people come, they just have great attitudes and they're just happy to be listening to the show. A lot of them aren't even like betters, they just sort of enjoy hearing the football talk. I want to thank, I'm sure you do too the hundreds of people who showed up this past Thursday. Listeners came from Cleveland, from Dallas, D.C. new York, shout out, Staten island, former home of my wife and mother in law. We had retirees from Delaware County. We had people come on their date nights. More than one couple I met came on a date night. In the words of Matt Mitchell, we also had loads of Philly scumbags. I truly love Philly and the people there. Great town. Even my older son showed up. Family acknowledgement that I have a podcast. I don't know if you have any favorite memories other than the Simon Hunter family showing up in force as they always do for our live events.
- [05:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah, you tell my family there's going to be free drinks, Chad. They're going to be There. So they definitely showed up big time. Yeah. To me it's just great where especially nowadays that I don't know about you, but as someone that is getting older and my friends are all having kids, you don't get to go out and hang out with people, the same kind of mindset of just people that love football and love sports betting. So we all get together with people, just the same kind of mindset we have. It's just a good time because like it's just, it's only other place I get that feeling is at the book. And sometimes they're not always the nicest people at those sports books. So on the other flip side, like you just said, all our fans, really friendly, really fun watching the game with them and making bets with them and yeah, I honestly can't wait to the next time we do one of these live events just because, you know, it's, it's fun sweating bets with people, especially when people are on the same side as you. So yeah, I really enjoyed it.
- [06:15]
Matt Mitchell
We actually don't have as much as Matt Mitchell likes to say, we don't have a ton of scumbag listeners. Like, we have so many people who are like married people with kids, with families who like to bet and hang out. It's so much fun. It's so much fun to hang out with them. You were giving away cash to people who could answer inane podcast trivia questions. Matt Mitchell did a great job putting together sort of a questionnaire highlighting elements of the podcast, asking fun questions like, who could I beat up? Who is the biggest villain in Philly? What jobs would Simon have been doing if he wasn't doing this? We're going to share a lot of those when we get into future episodes in the off season so people can hear what their podcast fellow podcast listeners are saying when there isn't football to discuss. But great night, great time. Glad for everyone that show showed up. Glad to see everybody and look forward to doing it again. We're going to do another one in the spring. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary at bet365, 1 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or 1, 800 bets off in Iowa terms conditions restrictions apply. So like look it's no secret we've been running bad for a lot of the year. It's been a tough year. How about this though Simon? If we think things have gone badly for us and this past Sunday was epic meltdowns of Jonathan Taylor dropping the ball before the end zone and Najee Harris dropping a lateral and God knows what else. David Montgomery injured his knee for the Detroit Lions. He is done for the year. His rushing total for the year was 775.5 rushing yards as of Sunday. His total rushing yards 775. That is either a great win for all the under betters but the people who will remember it and tell stories about it and discuss it at cocktail parties augmented people who bet the over 775 and a half. Great tweet from Action Network. Can you imagine? That's, that's a gut punch, Simon.
- [09:17]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's pretty sickening. But it's also a testament to the sports books who just play the numbers in the, in their computer. Right. Where it's like that's, that's the average they got back and mathematically it's profitable. And we always talk about if you just bet unders on all these season long props, it's a winner. And that's just a classic case of that where they, they laid a smart number and they got lucky.
- [09:39]
Matt Mitchell
Well, we're going to get some luck this week because that's how we roll. We bring optimism to every single week. Week 16 we talked about the Thursday game, the Broncos at the Chargers. The Chargers are three point favorites I think, I think money's starting to come in on the Broncos because we're seeing the juice a little bit in their favor on this number. So it could go to two and a half quickly. That was our first lean. I think part of this to me, you tell me was about Justin Herbert sort of looking hobbled on Sunday, especially in the second half.
- [10:15]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And we just talked about, it's really about that in the number. Right. Like that's felt like once again too much respect to this Chargers team for a team that I don't know how deserving they are of that respect. Right. A lot of what they did earlier in the season, we get it. Like that was really impressive start the season for this Chargers team. But the injuries just like Detroit are going to catch up to these teams. Right. Like We've seen that time and time again. When you're losing key players at key positions, it matters. And it's another spot too where I think professionals like I talked to, they liked the Chargers here. It was kind of like they think Bo Nick is hitting that rookie wall. And I feel like it's the other way where it's like, isn't this a nice spot to bet on Bo Nicks after a terrible start? Like, isn't this where he should do well on a short week, just get it out of his system. And again, it's, it's such a key number that I was at 3. So not surprising at all that it's come down to two and a half. Especially as the week goes longer. Like we talked about, it's a short week. Chargers have more injuries, they seem more banged up. You know, I don't know where you're at on this one, but it's like if you can get the three, grab the three because it's, it's a game. I'm not trying to bet if I don't have to, but if I'm taking a good number here, it's definitely gonna be the three on Denver.
- [11:24]
Matt Mitchell
Yeah, it just matchup wise. There's been a lot of talk about the Chargers defense and how good they've been. But since week nine, 28th in success rate.
- [11:33]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [11:34]
Matt Mitchell
They were third first eight weeks. So now you've got a Broncos interior pass rush where they've got multiple players in the top 30 of PFF's interior defensive linemen rankings for pass rush. And the Chargers interior O line does not have anybody that is ranking as high. So there's a little bit of an edge there for Denver. So yeah, if we have the three, we're going to take the three. We're going to go with the go with the Broncos. Breaking news out of Kansas City, Houston and Kansas City. Kansas City. As we went on air the last time I was able to check Kansas City was a two point dog. But as we were talking about this, literally before we hit record for this show and went live, Andy Reid was saying that Patrick Mahomes will have his first test today. He'll do some work today. They'll see how it goes. That will be the determinant in terms of indications about how we can do on Sunday. He also said Hollywood Brown has a chance to play. Simon, you were saying as some other books, this line had already moved to Kansas City minus one. I have not been able to check BET365. Let me see if I can get an update here.
- [12:59]
Chad Millman
They're probably a plus one right now for the Chiefs. That's what I think most American books are at right now.
- [13:04]
Matt Mitchell
Okay, so yeah, plus one.
- [13:05]
Chad Millman
Plus one and a half Chiefs.
- [13:07]
Matt Mitchell
Yep, yep, you're exactly right. So it's coming down off of that news. I bet it a two and a half yesterday. Shefter was reporting yesterday that the Chiefs don't think it's as bad as they were first concerned about. So I immediately bet it a two and a half. That's the ball game. Really. Like are you getting the best of the number? You should probably betting the Chiefs right now. Maybe you're going to make this as Simon says, I don't know. But feels like that's what we should be doing.
- [13:37]
Chad Millman
I would have votes still two and a half. Cause even, even at two and a half if it was Carson Wentz, I don't hate that number. Honestly for this Chiefs team against a Houston team right on a short week at home, it's like a lot of these advantages we automatically are going to give to this Chiefs team just because something, I think everyone can agree. Something just seems off about that Houston team. And you know, the books opened this at three and a half and it just got hammered even when everyone thought it was going to be Carson Wentz. So they moved to two and a half. Like you just said, it sat there for a good day and a half. And like I've been betting I'm. You have?
- [14:09]
Matt Mitchell
Yeah.
- [14:10]
Chad Millman
Now that it's moved, I would still bet. If you haven't. Like if you like the Chief side, why not? Again, if you're scared you missed the number, go ahead, throw it in a teaser. Then you can get this up to seven and a half right now. A lot of books in a six point teaser. Do it like that's, that's a good number. If you want to get real weird with it. Pair it with the Ravens if you believe in them to win outright against Pittsburgh the next the that night game. So like there's ways you can attack this if you did miss the value. But I think there's still value here. If it is Mahomes, this gets up to what Chad, minus three Houston. I mean minus three Chiefs. So to me there's still obvious value there. Even if Mahomes is banged up. We've seen him play on, play on injuries before and it's still them winning by a field goal. So to me, as long as it stays at three or under, I'm still going to go Chiefs. And yeah it stinks. Like we talked before we hopped on the show, it was. It moved right before he got on. It's like I was looking forward to talking about two and a half again, just because, again, if it is Wentz, I have no issue. If you're sitting on a 2 1/2 ticket with Wentz, I think that's still a solid number. And on the flip side, there's no reason to chase this number for you now. Now you can be patient that if it is Wednesday, on Friday, this goes back up, you might even get above. Back above three. It might get the plus three Chiefs, plus three and a half Chiefs. So definitely a number where if you missed it, you like what me and Chad are saying. You do think Mahomes toughs it out, grab it now if you're on the flip side and you want to be on Houston, I would just keep being patient here. Like, I could. I could see this keep going down as the rumors keep swirling about my home's health.
- [15:39]
Matt Mitchell
Yeah, it's. It's interesting the. You. You mentioned the Texans. They are still not a very good team offensively. And, you know, I was listening to Aikman last night, PRI Aikman, and they were talking about coaches and who could potentially coach the Bears. And you know, they mentioned Ben Johnson, they mentioned Cliff Kingsbury, they mentioned Bobby Slowik from the Texans. And there's clearly something that defenses have figured out when they're defending CJ Stroud. I don't know if you've seen it in all the film study that you do, but they are just defending him differently. And maybe they're playing safeties deeper, I don't know. But this team, even against the Dolphins, and I really liked the Dolphins last week, and we didn't put them in the contest. I didn't bet them at three because it's something about it made me nervous. But this Texans offense, man, Joe Mixon just had, had just 23 yards rushing last weekend. Nico Collins, just 17 yards receiving. The Texans won that game because Tua turned it over three times. C.J. was sacked four times. They only had 3.6 yards per play, only 12 first downs. And this Chiefs defense is significantly better than the Dolphins defense. And defenses have been confusing CJ Stroud, especially on third downs all season. Like, I don't know what you're seeing in. In whatever you're looking at, but what is going on with this Texans team?
- [17:14]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I would say the biggest thing from CJ Is he had a lot of confidence pushing the ball downfield last year. And that's been gone because of all the hits he's taken from behind that bad offensive line. Like you can see him either getting rid of the ball early or just taking easy checkdowns rather than trying to make stuff happen like he did last year. So that's, I mean, again, that's the human part of it. Right. Like we talked earlier in the year, Jayden Daniels, you could just tell Jayden Daniels was playing in a way that you could tell he had never been hit in the NFL before. And you saw immediately shift in that once he did get hurt and hurt his ribs. Right. He's played differently since that injury all season. So I think the same with cj Just seems like he's someone that was playing free last year and this year he's taking a lot of hits. He's overthinking. And you're right, like we've talked about it, we don't, we don't like Ben Houston as a favorite. This is another spot. There's still a favorite right now. So it's, it's pretty easy pick right now for us with the Chiefs.
- [18:01]
Matt Mitchell
This is how sad my life is. In the shower this morning after I did my very aggressive, high intensity 30 minutes of rowing, I was thinking to myself, if Mahomes plays, I've got the Chiefs at two and a half. I bet I'll be able to get the Texans at plus three.
- [18:22]
Chad Millman
That's not sad. That's, that's the best.
- [18:24]
Matt Mitchell
That then I'm just middle.
- [18:25]
Chad Millman
I live for a middle. Yeah.
- [18:27]
Matt Mitchell
Lift Millman, the Midler. That's what they call me. Pittsburgh at Baltimore. Baltimore's a six point favorite. This number's come down. Neither of us were scared off by the Steelers loss to the Eagles on Sunday to not bet them here. I actually waited until Monday afternoon to get the six and a half. As soon as I saw Tomlin say he was optimistic about T.J. watt. More money than tickets on the Steelers. So you know it's not a Pro Joe split, but there is a higher percentage of dollars coming in on the Steelers. Also, some optimism George Pickens may play after missing the past couple of weeks. Tomlin said they're, they're going to monitor him this week, which is more than he said last week going into the Ravens. Have you seen anything to make you not want to play this? No.
- [19:19]
Chad Millman
And honestly the, it was pretty funny. Like we did our Sunday show and we, I let off with just doing in a row the Thursday to Saturday games and we basically just said each one we like the dog. Each number has come down so pretty shocking. Where the favorites have been so good that these dogs have moved the other way. And yeah, our simple view of this Pittsburgh number is like it's too big. Especially in a matchup where they've always played really well against Lamar. It's one of the few teams that knows how to make him kind of a just terrible day. For some reason he's uncomfortable when he plays against Pittsburgh and he tends to struggle. Obviously the key to that is what you just talked about TJ Watt. Like I am 100% with you on that one. If he is a game time decision, whatever it may be and we could put this one in. I wouldn't put it in if that's what we're playing with. Like, if we have to lock this in, I wouldn't risk it knowing that we're betting a Pittsburgh team that might be down their number one D and their number one receiver. Like that is a lot to overcome. And yeah, amazing staff from Evan Lamar05 against the spread versus Pittsburgh. So me and Chad, I mean, we've. We got lazy with this one. We always just bet Pittsburgh in this spot. It feels like the same here. Like six and a half was a great number. You can still find there's one really public book out there still sitting on six and a half. Buy it. Why not take it? And if you do get scared off by or you can try to do what I just told you, try to middle it. Take the teaser Ravens tease up the Chiefs right now. Like there's. There is value here to this middle because it does feel like the kind of game where the Ravens are going to win, but they'll win maybe by Justin Tucker field goal. Like it'll come down to last possession. That's just how these two teams play. It's just again, we love to bet the dog, especially Tomlin in this spot. We expect them to bounce back after that embarrassing loss to the Eagles team. So yeah, Chad, it's, it's a game I love, but if there's no tj, I don't think we'd put in our contest.
- [21:11]
Matt Mitchell
Simon, like last week with Cleveland and Kansas City where you said very specifically, you said very specifically, avoid it. It's gross. And yet somehow I snuck it in. I'm putting this one only if T.J. watt is playing, which I agree. And if he's not, I might try to buy out of it.
- [21:34]
Chad Millman
Well, I just think they'll screw us on the number if he, if he's not playing. I bet you, it goes back to the six and a half. I could easily see this being five and a half in contest.
- [21:42]
Matt Mitchell
Yeah. And it was a clunker. Like the Steelers, they had five minutes possession in the first half. Right. And there was going to be inflation on this game when they played as badly as they did against the Eagles. And LaMar was throwing five touchdowns against the Giants. And I will say this about the Steelers, they were terrible, if not four, that Najee Harris dropped lateral. They were down 20 to 13. They may have been tied or down just four midway through the third quarter. And that changes, that really changes the game. Yeah.
- [22:21]
Chad Millman
And the Tomlin punt too. Talma punted on the Eagles side of the ball and what was it? Eagles had a 10 minute, 11 minute draw.
- [22:28]
Matt Mitchell
Never give it back. So literally had the ball for 10 minutes, 20 seconds.
- [22:33]
Chad Millman
That was a bad Tomlin game.
- [22:34]
Matt Mitchell
I think overall it almost feels like, you know, we were nervous about that and nervous about that game and nervous about the Chiefs game because we were betting into the trends that we knew they couldn't last forever. And I feel like in both cases it's like we popped a zit and it's like there's just so much. It's all been relieved and we, we can go back again now. You know what I mean? We're funny.
- [23:00]
Chad Millman
This was. When I said Pittsburgh Sunday night, you gave me a look of like, I'm just happy you said it because I can't say anything right now.
- [23:05]
Matt Mitchell
I would not.
- [23:06]
Chad Millman
You know, this is the right spot for Pittsburgh.
- [23:08]
Matt Mitchell
All right, let's look at a recap of our week 15 in the favorites podcast $100,000 pro football pick them contest. Congratulations to week 15 first place winner, Michael Stimpert. Michael went 5, 0, got within 6 of the tiebreaker, takes home our $1,000 weekly prize. As always, producer Matt Mitchell has selected his Producers cup award to the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest. Have you heard about the lonesome loser? He's a loser, but he still keeps on trying. This week's Producer cup award goes to Mark Tu, who went 0 5, missed the tiebreaker by almost 500 yards. Mark, please email our producer@podcasttrunnetwork.com to claim your prize. Cleveland at Cincinnati. Cincinnati is a seven point favorite. Kevin Stefanski would not commit to Jameis as his quarterback. I will not commit to betting on the Browns. I cannot commit to betting on the Bengals of seven point favorites with a defense. They gave up 14 to Will Levis and 13 to Mason Rudolph. Can you.
- [24:24]
Chad Millman
I don't know it's tough. What are we going to do here?
- [24:27]
Matt Mitchell
Pass.
- [24:28]
Chad Millman
All right, let's.
- [24:30]
Matt Mitchell
Do you have an opinion? I don't, I don't have an opinion. If I'm playing a number. I want to play Cleveland.
- [24:35]
Chad Millman
It just sucks. Even if it's dtr. Like I want to bet Cleveland, even if it's James or dtr because no matter what, they're going to be able to move the ball. We already know that against this Cincinnati defense.
- [24:43]
Matt Mitchell
Yeah, they're terrible.
- [24:45]
Chad Millman
What you just said though is the issue for me is that what, what happens on the turnover side? Like what, what burns us and has Cleveland just totally given up at this point? Because that, that that second half looked like a team that had nothing going, no spark at all even defensively. Like they had a couple of big time stats stops but overall it just felt like a total nothing game where they, they just don't want to be there. So like you said, the number, everything about it. I want to play Clevel. I don't have it in me Chad to ride it for another week.
- [25:17]
Matt Mitchell
I don't either. Not for the contest for sure. I also feel like there's other games that we're going to like more. I do think we can find five games that we like. Simon there's been much mistletoeing and hearts have been glowing when the playoffs are near. That means the holiday season is upon us and with thousands of five star reviews, let's make the Gift of Tommy John our newest holiday tradition. It's lovely weather for a pair of great fitting underwear and as our listeners know, Tommy John helps deliver those special cringle tingles all year long. Simon, why will you be giving the Gift of Tommy John this season?
- [25:58]
Chad Millman
Because it's the gift at last.
- [26:00]
Matt Mitchell
That's right. There's still time to throw down field with Tommy John and become the greatest gifter of all time. But time is running out. Go to tommyjohn.com favorites right now for your last minute holiday gifts. 40% off just in time only at tommyjohn.com favorites the flavor, the tradition and.
- [26:22]
Del Taco Ad
The spirit of carne Asada lives on at Del Taco. Join the Asada today with Del Taco's new limited time half pound Chipotle carne Asada steak burrito. Packed with sweet, spicy and smoky flavor. Wrapped up and grilled to perfection, the whole carne Asada steak menu delivers the bold flavors you crave with epic burritos, loaded fries and street tacos. Starting at just 2.99. Only at Del Taco.
- [26:49]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [26:57]
Simon Hunter
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst, and boy, oh, boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [27:06]
Adnan Virk
I love you, by the way. On NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [27:14]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what, tons of back and forth and all things NHL.
- [27:24]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're still going to find that we're not just hockey talk. We're going to all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear in NHL.
- [27:34]
Simon Hunter
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Ferki.
- [27:37]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burkin Demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [27:49]
Justin Penic
What's going on, everybody? This is Justin Pennick from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast alongside Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We're rolling three times a week on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're talking about the MVP race. Is Josh Allen going to pull it out? Lamar Jackson? Can Saquon Barkley even break the rushing record? Can the Steelers keep up their momentum? We talk about everything, we break it down. Stats, analytics. And of course, Chris Rose is bringing his perspective on being a pro in the media world as well. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did. Hope you could join us for the postseason run.
- [28:39]
Matt Mitchell
Very interesting game. Louisiana. Rams at New York Jets. Jets are three point underdogs. On Sunday night, we discussed liking the Jets. I'm very surprised that the money has come steaming in on the Rams. This is a pro Joe split with tickets on the jets. Money on the Rams. This move, it's not at three at bet365, but it is at three and a half. I mean, it's at three at bet365, but it's at three and a half at a lot of other books. Are you surprised at the move?
- [29:10]
Chad Millman
No. I mean, I'M surprised to know that more tickets are on the jets because it's like this is the definition of the public hammering the Rams and the pros will just bet the Jets. So there's a couple games like that this week that's like, you know, I'm sorry ahead of time, people like me, Chad, might have to force them in the contest because it is. It's just a glaring number movement where it's like this should probably be closer to a pick, maybe minus one and a half on the Rams. And we're just getting a ton of value here just because, you know, this Rams team have had. They've had some big wins in prime time spot in games where it's like, you know, last week people are just going to chuck it up to the weather, right? Stafford threw three interceptions that were dropped. Like there's no beating around that. Like he had a bad game. They stole one. Now the public's rewarding them. Like it's just a very bizarre scenario. On the flip side, you know, as as much I want to shit on the jets coaching staff for that end of the game. Overall, Rogers has looked better as he's gotten more comfortable with the weapons on the team. Like that was a totally a game where, you know, if Devonte Adams wasn't on that team, there's no way they cover that number. Like Devonte Adams literally took over that game just because of him and the Rogers connection. So that's a way that they can easily attack this Rams secondary. We've seen this ramp secondary. He's just young, inexperienced. Now they're going up against a veteran like Devonte. If Devonte Adams obviously doesn't have the game he had last week, it. That's going to open up everything else in the offense as well. Like, we've already talked about that. So yeah, I hate it because I wanted to avoid this jets team. But now, like you just said, now that it's up to three and a half, you can't avoid it. That's. There's too much value there. That's such a good number. You have to take the Jets. This, this line stinks for a letdown spot for this Rams team.
- [31:00]
Matt Mitchell
After going 35 games without throwing for 300 yards, Aaron Rodgers went over that against Miami and finished with 289 versus the Jacks. He has looked mobile. He's been evading the rush. He's been accurate on the run. He's been connecting with receivers downfield. I already made a note, we've got a Rams pass defense that Is bottom third of the league. Rush D and overall yards per play. That is bottom five, not bottom fifth of the league. Literally bottom five in the league. They're missing some key players. I feel like we're going to be in the foxhole. Like I don't, I don't understand sort of the money coming in on the Rams here because it is like they've won sexy against the best team in the NFL in the Bills, and they won ugly against their biggest rival in a must win spot. So I don't know what, I don't know what guys are betting here. Are they betting the, you know, the Stafford McVeigh versus Rogers Ulbrich matchup? That's the only thing I can think of is that they just, they like the coaching quarterback mismatch more than they like the number.
- [32:21]
Chad Millman
Yeah, just the Rams are a better team. I mean they're, I mean I have to check, but I'm pretty sure they're leading their division now, so maybe that's the.
- [32:27]
Matt Mitchell
Yeah, they are.
- [32:28]
Chad Millman
Well, they're playing. People view that as they're playing for more. They're leading their division. This jet scene is playing for nothing. Coming off a win, you expect them to have a letdown here. So I get their perspective. Also extended rest for that Rams team. But yeah, I just think they're just overvalued, a little overrated right now.
- [32:45]
Matt Mitchell
All right, speaking of overvalue and overrated, are the Philadelphia Eagles overvalued and overrated, visiting their division rivals, the Washington Commanders at bet365. This is three. There are a lot of three and a halfs out there. We discussed it a bit on Sunday night. I want to take the hook here. Is this Simon says?
- [33:10]
Chad Millman
It is Simon says Washington three and a half. When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says. You just nailed it. It's all about the number. We talked Sunday night. We loved it at 4. We knew it was going to come down because it was just a way too inflated line and it's going to be three by kickoff. Like this is another game.
- [33:29]
Matt Mitchell
Oh yeah.
- [33:29]
Chad Millman
Pros, pros. Joe's like the public is going to hammer this Eagles team that, you know, not that this is their last tough game on their schedule. Right. They end with, I think the Cowboys and the Giants. I guess that could be tough for them in some ways. But this, this is the type of game where if the Eagles somehow do win it, they're not winning by more than a field goal. Like this is going to be a really ugly close. Slow scoring game and last time they played Washington was in it until they made a couple of little stupid mistakes and obviously the Eagles just open it up in the second half on them with Saquon. So you know, we've seen time and time teams that see another team the second time around, it's just different. They know to play each other, especially a playoff team like that. Washington is. So we talked about it Sunday night. That was a dumb number open with four, four and a half. And it was open that eye because Commander should have lost one on a terrible ref technicality. I don't know if you saw that clip of that ref stopping the clock when he shouldn't have been. The flip side, the Eagles just blew out in a game that no one was betting on him. Right. Everyone was on the other side. So it's like the public tends to over adjust to those type of moments where they got rolled by a team. They come back in heavy on the other side the following week. So yeah, the unfortunate part just never has moved so much. If you can find the three and a half, find it now. This is just a number I can see get the three by Sunday. It's just the pros are going to keep hitting it once again it's just all about inflated lines and taking the value and that's, that's what this line is. It's just inflated right now. This Eagles team is really good, really talented. Divisional games are just different. They simply are. So that to me is the defining point here.
- [35:08]
Matt Mitchell
It'll be three before we end this live show. It's at three. We're anywhere that it's three and a half. It's you know, three and a half minus 1:20. So it's going to move and it's elevated. Vig every single place that it's three and a half plus three and a half. So it's going to be a three before you know it. So yeah, if you want it, Simon says grab it. Arizona at Carolina. Carolina is a four point dog. We're back at it with the Carolina Panthers. Finally they're underdogs so we don't have to be tempted. You know, good for us that we did not put them into the contest this past week. We rode him as dogs for several weeks. We jumped off this week. Dave Canales COACH the Panthers has been saying that his starting quarterback is week to week. He announced yesterday Bryce Young will be the starting quarterback. He did not have a great game. Four turnovers. You know, they. The defense could not guard CD Lamb. Micah Parsons was dominant I think he had two sacks in the game. Just was all over Bryce Young force and fumbles was just a bet. It was a regression game for him. I don't want to put this in the contest, but you know, Eileen, Panthers here.
- [36:27]
Chad Millman
No, I actually love Panthers here. I think it's a good number. I, I had this at three and a half. It's four and really? Yeah, again, it's not one. Like we're not getting two points of value. It's nothing crazy. But yeah, I just, I love the way this Panthers team plays offensively and especially the way they match up for this Cardinals team defense. So the Cardinals are a team that they'll best. They'll basically let you drive up and down the field. They just can stop you in the red zone. And we kind of seen since the Panthers have come back from that bye week that it feels like that's one of the things that actually improved with Bryce Young's game is his playing style inside the red zone, his decision making inside the red zone. So like you just said, that was the worst game they've had in weeks last week. And that to me is the nervous bar chat where it's like, did they get a lot of bad habits once again? Did Bryce Young get some bad habits again last week and that are in carry rid of this game? Because Arizona, as much we like to beat up on them, you know, they're a playoff, basically a borderland playoff team that's been overall played pretty well this season. Like they're a team that, you know, if Kyler shows up, they would probably be leading their division this year. Like he's had a lot of games where he's disappeared. So me and you going into this know the deal, like Kyler could easily burn us back in this Panthers team. Like if he has a Kyler game. Because Panthers defense is terrible. Like, terrible. I mean they made Cooper Rush look like an all pro last week.
- [37:46]
Matt Mitchell
You look at the. I've talked about these next gen stats and you know there's 24 different metrics that you can compare team to team and you look down the Columns, Panthers defense, 30th. 30th. 30th, 30th, 30th. 30th. Like literally for every single one of them.
- [38:04]
Chad Millman
No, and it's like. And they, they don't. There's no way of hiding it because we already talked about, I think it was Derek Brown. Like they've lost some of the key guys early in the year that like they already were thin they lost their best, basically their best defenders and it's like only gotten worse.
- [38:18]
Matt Mitchell
So.
- [38:18]
Chad Millman
Yeah, that's. That's why your hesitation here, Chad. I get there's other dogs I like more. It's just I'm basically playing the model and my faith in the Panthers where it's like this Cardinals team, you know, we've seen it time and time again now if Kyler doesn't show up, they could easily lose these games. And the fact that you can get +175 right on the money line of the Panthers just feels like it's too inflated for this, this Cardinals team.
- [38:41]
Matt Mitchell
I for a second there I thought you were going to say you loved Arizona and it's been such a. It's been such a weird year that if you had said that I honestly it would have made me feel worse than any time we had contradicted each other the entire year because then I just would have felt like I might as well be throwing darts because if we're not on the same side about Carolina, then what am I even looking at right now? That's how I do have some talk.
- [39:11]
Chad Millman
Favorites I like but yeah, that's not the one.
- [39:13]
Matt Mitchell
That's honestly how I would have felt about that game. That's where my confidence would have gone. I might have had to hang it up. Tennessee at Indy this is a very weird game. Indianapolis is a four point favorite. The if I'm looking at this right in the Action app and on actionnetwork.com where I can see the betting ticket splits and the money splits the public meaning the tickets are coming in on Tennessee but the money is leaning indie and I don't know if you're seeing this as well. I don't know if you're feeling this way like are people fading. Anthony Richardson who reverted back to pre benching days and against the Broncos was completed just 44% of his passes had two picks. Like are they. Are people banking on Tennessee starting Mason Rudolph? What are you seeing here?
- [40:11]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I would say that it's definitely Mason Rudolph to me that like they. They want to because we already talked about coming into last week that was historical what Tennessee's done them not covering. I mean Evan obviously has a number but like it's rare and unique. Teams only have two covers whatever they're at at this point through the season. Like usually the books over adjust just to because they know that the public's going to keep fading that that side and like this, this honestly I want to be on the Colts. I'll be Honest, Jeff, like, coming.
- [40:41]
Matt Mitchell
So do I. Like, I. But, like, I can't.
- [40:45]
Chad Millman
Are we really gonna let Mason Rudolph scare us off, though? That's what I was going to say to you. Are we really gonna let that screw us here? Because.
- [40:49]
Matt Mitchell
No, no, honestly, it's. It's not Mason Rudolph. To me. It's. Why did this number move down? Like, it moved from four and a half to four, which is great, but the money is on the Colts, so why would bookmakers move this based on the public liking the Titans? That's not.
- [41:07]
Chad Millman
I thought. I thought it was because of the Mason Rudolph, Will Levis thing. That, to me is. That's what I thought the movement was like. I know it's not much, but I have him a full point better than Will Levis. So, like, to me, this should keep going. I think it should be a three and a half, which, again, right now I'm showing value on Tennessee. I should be betting Tennessee. I know, but we've talked. This Colts team has just been better all season at home. Especially Anthony Richardson has been better at home in this. So, yeah, it's just. I'm honestly shocked that anyone's even betting the Colts. I thought everyone's gonna be like us, really pissed off and burned about this team. But, you know, like we say, Chad just got to burn the tapes and move on. So I'm trying to. I'm not trying to overthink it. And I wanted to be on the cold tier. But you're right. Maybe I'll just avoid this one because like you just said, it's. It's historical. This Tennessee team, like, eventually it's going to come back around. They're going to start covering some of these games because it's just. No, no team. I mean, Evan probably has better numbers than I do, but yeah, the fourth team, Super Bowl Air to be 2 and 12 against the spread or worse. So this is something we don't see, Chad. This is historic. Since the super bowl era, this is the fourth team to be this bad. So that's my fear here, is like, we know it's going to come back around. Like, they're not going 2 and 15, right? Like, they're going to cover one or one or two of these ones at the end here. So you're right. Maybe. Maybe I should just avoid this one.
- [42:27]
Matt Mitchell
Well, I'll leave it on the list. We can see what happens over the next 48 hours. We're certainly going to get some sharp calls about it because people do like the Colts here and, you know, Maybe we're willing to go back into the fire if Jonathan Taylor has the courage to get back on that field, to go back to practice after a rookie mistake and an epic meltdown that I really do believe that cost his team the game. You watch. I haven't watched Shane Steichen's press conference post game, and I haven't sort of looked for his quotes about that in the last 48 hours. But I did watch Sean Payton, just because I love Sean Payton. I think he's, you know, brilliant and funny and one of the more honest coaches. And he couldn't even find the words to talk about that Jonathan Taylor drop of the ball before he got into the end zone. That's it. That's the game. They're down 13 points, the Broncos. We're winning our bet. Boniex was having a terrible game that was just epic. So if he can do it, we can do it.
- [43:37]
Chad Millman
Burn the tapes.
- [43:38]
Matt Mitchell
Burn the tapes. Detroit at Chicago. Guess what. Guess what, Simon. This number is.
- [43:44]
Chad Millman
Give me a bet. The Bears again.
- [43:46]
Matt Mitchell
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. This line has moved from seven to six and a half. So somebody is betting the Bears.
- [43:54]
Chad Millman
I bet they are.
- [43:55]
Matt Mitchell
And it was my first instinct. But then I remembered how horrible the Bears rushing defense has been. And I'm thinking, even without David Montgomery, the Lions will want to take out their frustration on this. Like Caleb Williams, when he's throwing it, it looks like he's trying to throw the ball through a brick wall every single time. No touch, no arc, just a laser, absolute laser. Every single time he lets it go. I'm sure the Bears are the right side here. I don't think you want to touch it. I don't really feel like I need to touch it. I think. I think the Lions have something to prove. They need to win. I think the Bears are. They're just trying to survive for the next three games.
- [44:46]
Chad Millman
Yeah, seven and a half would have made sense. I probably been, okay, that that number makes sense because I believe it was ten and a half and then went down to nine and a half on that Thanksgiving game. And we joked that game if just one of those field goals by Detroit. I think they kicked four or five field goals in that game was a touchdown. They cover that number like that. The Bears just got. I think we all realize it now. They. They had a crazy stretch, though. They got a really lucky, really fortunate, and it broke their way. And yeah, the Lions defense is so banged up that if this was seven and a half, I could have been convinced because it's like we'll have an opportunity for the back door. Right. At some point. I mean, you know, it's obviously the on the books mind because you just said they moved it down now to. It's in the spot where every teaser in the world is going to have the Lions on their side. So that's, that's the thing where it's like I old mean, Chad would be hammering this Bears number. Like this is the trap of all traps, like lines. I mean from my perspective, I feel like they're going to win this by 20 points. Right. Like you just said, Dan Campbell is going to take out all of that on them this week. And you know, that was the lines in my memory. Their first loss since that Bucks game and we remember we backed them the following week after that bucks, they've won.
- [46:00]
Matt Mitchell
11 in a row.
- [46:01]
Chad Millman
Right. So that. Yeah. So you know, you expect a major bounce back spot here, but it once again comes down to injuries. Chad, like when do the injuries catch up to him? So maybe this is the one favorite we get in. Cause I do love the line, especially at six and a half, but it's like, oh man, all the injuries they have. It's just hard for me to put a number on this Lions team right now. It's like I know how great they are, but the problem is can they get stops defensively? And you know, me and Chad have a little PTSD. We were up, what was it, 21 points at half with this Lions team and we got backdoored by this exact Bears team. So it is tough.
- [46:37]
Matt Mitchell
Well, I got a different favorite that is a huge favorite that I want to see. I wanted to see if I could entice you a little bit. But yeah, I think the Lions, they win this going away. The Bears are a terrible, terrible football team. They. They really can't stop the run and that's. They can't protect the passer and they can't stop the run. So one thing, even if the lines can't pressure the quarterback, they will be able to run on this Bears defense. Right.
- [47:11]
Chad Millman
And I mean you'll agree since they made a coaching change, they have not looked prepared in either game.
- [47:16]
Matt Mitchell
No. As soon as Thomas Brown stopped being the offensive coordinator and started being the head coach, they are. What are they losing? Like is it 34 to nothing in the first quarters? Like it's pretty. Honest to God, it's just. It's embarrassing how bad it is. So we'll go back to it. I put it on the list. We can, we can discuss it on Thursday. New York Giants at Atlanta. Atlanta is a double digit favorite. Not surprising. How many tickets are on the giants right now? 64% and the game opened at 10. Is double digits a digit too far? Is that what the public is saying to back the Atlanta Falcons? Has. Have we reached the tipping point? The public. Not even the public will back Kirk cousins as a 10 point favorite.
- [48:12]
Chad Millman
I agree. We would be hammering this number if we didn't think the Giants might have quit on the season. That's the fear. It's like they are so bad in so many different ways and they've had such brutal injuries this season. And like, do you know who their quarterback is this week? Is it Drew Lock? Like, is it Tim boy?
- [48:28]
Matt Mitchell
Is it Tim boy? I mean, that's the problem is like, I'd love to hit the Giants right now because the Falcons really shouldn't be 10 point favorites against anybody. But I wonder who's playing quarterback.
- [48:42]
Chad Millman
People are already talking that they're going to cut Kirk after this season, which is just crazy to think they'll eat all that dead cat money. But I guess because success of the Broncos this season, the success of the, you know, the Bills, what they've done with all that dead cat money, that maybe they're just like, no, you can, you can make it work. No, it's terrible. That's, that's why I hate this number chat because it's like it feels too easy. Like, who, who is taking Atlanta minus 10. Like Kirk. Right. But people are like, I, we've seen it now. Like people are putting this in their teasers, their parlays, like they're hammering this Atlanta number. Because everyone just thinks what we just talked about, that the Giants have given up and quitting the season. But yeah, another line that's extremely tempting. There's another huge dog this week that I do not like at all. But this one I could be talking to. Like if you came in here on Thursday and you're like, it's ten and a half now and it's Drew Lock, like, we know it's not Timbo. We know it's going to be Drew Lock who would be shocking because I think he had a walking boot on his foot like a week ago. Yeah, I'd be in, I honestly would be in on the Shines team. But if it's Tim Boyle, I don't think I can get there. Like he is. He's a fourth stringer. He's the guy that you just, you bring him in as an insurance policy. He Was never supposed to play, but now he's playing, so I can't do it. If it's Tim Boyle, how crazy would.
- [50:00]
Matt Mitchell
It be if we're. We're going to the mattress with Drew Locke, who we promised ourselves when he was in the Broncos we would never bet on again? This is what the bookmakers do to us. They give us such tempting, tempting numbers.
- [50:18]
Chad Millman
It's an insane number.
- [50:20]
Matt Mitchell
It's an insane. They are. It's not even tempting.
- [50:23]
Chad Millman
They're plus 400 to win outright.
- [50:26]
Matt Mitchell
It's a challenge. They're challenging us.
- [50:30]
Chad Millman
Oh, my God. I love it, though. And it would be so Giants too, to win this game and get rid of them having the number one pick. Like they're the type of team that would do that.
- [50:38]
Matt Mitchell
Oh, I have no doubt over the next three games they're going to win a game, lose out on the number one pick. And then. And then the Giants ownership are just going to fire D Ball and Joe Sean. That's what's going to happen.
- [50:49]
Chad Millman
Probably should have already.
- [50:51]
Matt Mitchell
Minnesota at Seattle. Seattle was 3 at bet 365, but at least when we came on the air, they were at three and a half at some other places. I'm just checking the update right now. It's three across the board except for one place. I bet it at three and a half this morning on Seattle. I think there's too much Sam Darnold love right now. I think even before the Bears game, the conversation was about how he is going to get paid, how amazing he's been playing, what a career resurrection should the Vikings find a way to keep him. He beats the Bears in prime time and there's more fawning about how amazing he is. He did throw 16 incompletions. And the Vikings line, I do think is in some serious trouble. Cam Robinson had a terrible game playing against a weak Bears defensive line, letting guys get by him, a lot of false starts. Brian O'Neill, their right tackle, in and out of the game, injured. He was sort of the guy keeping it together. And this Seahawks defensive line is just much better. Leonard Williams, especially this year, has been amazing. Sam Darnold just keeps the ball for so long, letting his routes come open down the field. It's Pro Joe's game. Tickets are on Minnesota. Money's on Seattle. I like the Seahawks.
- [52:23]
Chad Millman
I agree. Just because once again, it's another game that's all about the number. Like we're gonna have basically three games and we love because they're all three and a halfs, but it's all numbers I really like and matchups I like. Right. You just talked about this Vikings team. They deserve all the respect like this fan base. Everybody like you know, only really, really smart professionals which I am clearly not one believe in this team head into this season and Colin Cowherd I should say and for their reasons I just didn't understand where they really thought that Kevin O'Connell could solve this whole Sam Darnold thing. And like you just talked about when he doesn't have his best games, Chad, he still makes these big time throws this season like he has all season when they need him to come through. And you know, I can't, can't tell you how many games they've had this year that have been coin flip games that they somehow won. And now they control their destiny. They can be the fucking one seed. It's pretty crazy. The spot this Vikings team is at from having you know, a six and a half win total to they might be the one seed with a nameless defense and Sam Darnold running the offense. It's. It's bizarre award. That's why we love football and it's, you know, reason here. I, I wanted to be on Seattle for what you've just talked about that I knew this Viking team was going to be inflated especially after their win on Monday night. And we talked about they're coming off a short week having to travel to Seattle. But we don't know the update. I don't know if you have an update but I don't.
- [53:46]
Matt Mitchell
You know is Geno's playing.
- [53:49]
Chad Millman
So the word is that he's going to play.
- [53:50]
Justin Penic
Yeah.
- [53:51]
Chad Millman
I would need to see more than that though because he basically had one of those. If his leg was planted, he's getting a new acl mcl. Right. Like the way that guy shot right into his knee. I don't want to call it a cheap shop because I guess the guy was falling at the time. But it was like it was one of those they've changed the rules because of it. And they didn't call a flag in the play cause he was apparently he was airborne. One of his leg was in the air. But yeah, this matchup for this Vikings team, we have enough data this season. They just play close games. Right. Overall that's most of their games are one possession games and we've seen that in the second half when they've gone off game script, they tend to struggle. Now it doesn't. Has not hold true these last couple weeks. Right. Sam Darnold has been great in the second half for a lot of these games and they've drove the field and scored a lot of touchdowns. But heading to last week, we saw Seattle's defense have kind of improved those last couple of weeks. So it's a tough one. Chad, we're at three and a half. I agree with you, but once this dips to three, two and a half, I kind of like the Vikings, honestly, because I do think they are the better team. The same thing I felt with Green Bay last week. It's like your division is so good that it when they get outside their division, they've just been dominating the competition. Like Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota, they've been incredible outside their division. So yeah, it's all about the number here for me, Chad. Three and a half. I am totally on board with you. I'd put this in the contest, but the way the professionals are betting this and they're hitting this number, it might be down to two and a half come contest time. So it'll be tough for us to get this one in.
- [55:20]
Matt Mitchell
I think it will be down to two and a half. By the way, this is one of three games that I had as my exec decision and I, I pulled off only because even though Gino is playing, like, I'm still a little anxious about it, like you said. Also, you can't get like, I want to give a game where I know the majority of the places are offering the number that I like and nobody's really offering the three and a half anymore, which is what I bet it at. So it did not make it as my exact decision. But we will get there. Simon, can you name the best ticketing app in the United States?
- [56:03]
Chad Millman
Game Time.
- [56:05]
Matt Mitchell
That's right. It's our beloved sponsor, Game Time. Everybody knows how much I love going to live events. I especially love it during the holiday season. I love making memories with my family and friends going to live events any time of year. But it's especially fantastic during the holiday season. The other day we were on game time checking out NBA games, Knicks and Nets games that my son and I can go to during the holiday season because we want to catch more games together because we've had so much fun on our sportacular events. I'm in the app right now and look, I'm looking around and it can be the perfect gift to take someone you love to an event. I might end up going, let's say I want to go to the UConn Huskies, see him play. I got a top 11 team in the country I got the two time defending national champs. I'm getting in for 50 bucks. My favorite part about Game Time they're all in pricing shows me the total cost upfront. No surprises no matter where you live. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, use code Favorites for $20 off your first purchase terms. Apply again, create an account and redeem Code Favorites that's F A V O R I T e s for $20 off download game Time today what time is it? Game Time.
- [57:53]
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- [58:22]
Adnan Virk
What's up everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [58:30]
Simon Hunter
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst. And boy, oh boy, does Daddy have a lot to say.
- [58:39]
Adnan Virk
I love you, by the way, on NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [58:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [58:58]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're still going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We're into all kinds of random stuff in this podcast. Podcasts, movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear on NHL.
- [59:07]
Simon Hunter
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Ferkey.
- [59:10]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [59:22]
Justin Penic
What's going on, everybody? This is Justin Penic from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast alongside Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We're rolling three times a week on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're talking about the MVP race is Josh Allen going to pull it out. Lamar Jackson. Can Saquon Barkley even break the rushing record? Can the Steelers keep up their momentum? We talk about everything. We break it down. Stats, analytics and of course course, Chris Rose is bringing his perspective on being a pro in the media world as well. Listen to football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did. Hope you could join us for the postseason run.
- [60:12]
Matt Mitchell
New England at Buffalo. Buffalo is a 14 point favorite. Simon, we have taken one massive number this season. Will this be the second one?
- [60:23]
Chad Millman
I don't. Am I a sucker? I love the Bills. What's going on here?
- [60:28]
Matt Mitchell
I love them.
- [60:37]
Chad Millman
Come on now.
- [60:38]
Justin Penic
The Bills are making it happen now.
- [60:41]
Chad Millman
Love that though. Is. Isn't this too easy? But then we overthought it last week. We knew the Ravens was probably going to be too easy and it was too easy.
- [60:49]
Matt Mitchell
Simon, I love we what we loved the Lions a few weeks ago. We made the Lions minus 10. I forget who it was against our big balls bet of the week. Maybe it was actually that was.
- [61:02]
Chad Millman
No we had the minus 14, I.
- [61:03]
Matt Mitchell
Think minus 14 against the Titans. Right?
- [61:05]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [61:06]
Matt Mitchell
Like Gerard Mayo is now just going out on press conferences and throwing his offensive coordinator under the bus. I would not be surprised if that's the tipping point for the Patriots to just say screw it, we're going to get Mike Vrabel and we're, we're rebuilding this whole thing from scratch because they're so disappointed in that and this team and he did not handle that well. Like I Josh Allen is a double digit fave. Doesn't scare me. Covering that number at 54% at home. It's a bit higher if the spread is 14 or more. Obviously the sample size on that is tiny. I don't see this team letting up. I think they're having too much fun. I think he's gunning for an mvp. He just saw Lamar toss five touchdowns against the Giants. I am not afraid to bet the Buffalo Bills here.
- [62:04]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And again I'm. I already know I'm going to get a lot of texts from a lot of pros being like what about all the injuries to the Bills defense? And you know my pushback would be they're coming off a Rams and Detroit game like two of the class the nfcs that are just, you know, those are really high powered offense. We don't have those same worries with this New England team. And you know the Josh Allen factor like you just talked about. We've never seen a quarterback play at this type of level these last couple of weeks. Like, I don't know if the stat I saw was true, but it was basically that he had 17 touchdowns, his inner zero turnovers in the last like four weeks. Like, it doesn't, doesn't even sound like real numbers, but that's, that's how dominant he's been offensively. So you're right. It's really a bet on. We know they're going to get points offensively. Can, can this Bills team get stops against Drake? May we expect he should? Obviously the fear for us would be this is a nice rest game for this Bills team. Right. They don't need to go all out. Like, there's no reason for them to really blow this team out. But I still think in the back of his mind, Josh Allen's pushing for the mvp. I just can't see him stepping off the gas like he's gonna. Yeah, right. Offensively, I feel like him and Joe Brady are just gonna keep pushing it. So I'm with you. I like it. It's just, it sucks that it's such a huge number. Like, it just feels so gross to do. But I personally have this at 17 and a half, it's 14. That's a lot of value. But it's like, man, this is such a huge, huge number for a divisional game. But I think we both can't avoid it, right? I think we both love this Bill.
- [63:38]
Matt Mitchell
Matt Mitchell, feel free to weigh in, in the chat or vocally as our resident Buffalo Bills super fan. How are you feeling about this game? Do you have fears? Will you yell at me if I make this my exec decision? Because this was one of the three games I wanted to make my exec decision.
- [63:58]
Chad Millman
I guess my only concern would be weather. It's a big number, but yeah, I'm.
- [64:02]
Matt Mitchell
Not feeling particularly anxious about this.
- [64:04]
Chad Millman
And the vibes are indeed strong. Also, it's their first time back home in a little while, so there'll be.
- [64:10]
Matt Mitchell
Quite a celebratory atmosphere among the scumbags.
- [64:13]
Chad Millman
Of western New York, God bless them. Yeah, no wind. Very cold.
- [64:17]
Matt Mitchell
Looks like very cold.
- [64:19]
Chad Millman
Under 20 degree at kickoff kind of games. But yeah, I don't know how you could feel excited about taking New England.
- [64:28]
Matt Mitchell
Buffalo Bills executive decision.
- [64:32]
Chad Millman
A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders.
- [64:37]
Matt Mitchell
Execute them. Executive decision minus 14. No fear. It's weird. I started researching it and I'm like, what is this sensation I'm getting where I want to back the Buffalo bills at minus 14. The other game on my list, San Francisco at Miami. Miami.
- [64:57]
Chad Millman
Yeah. So I thought it was gonna be this game.
- [64:59]
Justin Penic
I.
- [64:59]
Matt Mitchell
It was. Miami's a one and a half point favorite. We talked about a Sunday night. I was leading Miami. You were intrigued. The tickets are on San Francisco. The money is on Miami. Miami right now. To me, the strength of the Dolphins is their short passing game. Top four in EPA per play for passes under 10 yards, time to throw under 10 yards, fastest in the league. That's where the Niners defense is the weakest. What has your research shown you? Are you feeling similar to me?
- [65:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [65:26]
Matt Mitchell
Honestly.
- [65:27]
Chad Millman
We talked Sunday night. I liked the Miami with you and it was just really about the number. I mean, I personally thought my model would have it at minus three dozen. It's only minus two. So it's. I think it's in locks up a lot of professionals viewing that, you know, this Miami team does kind of suck and that, you know, as much as we bash this 49ers team, it's going to come back the other way. And we saw that last week. I know, you know, if they catch one of those picks by Stafford, if they, if Debo catches one of those passes, their favorite in this game, no doubt. I mean, they're probably a minus two and a half. We're getting great value on Miami. So that's, that's my pushback here, is that we're not getting a great number. Like this number feels pretty right. Like both these teams incredibly desperate for their playoff lives. You know, Kyle Shanahan is the teacher here. Like he's going against the student and his former coach, and we've seen that kind of work in Shanahan's favor in the past. But yeah, it just. All the injuries to the 49ers, I still feel like there's value on this Dolphins team, especially once again if there's no Trent Williams. Once again, we've talked about those numbers with Purdy. Like he's a different quarterback, especially when he's worrying about the blocking protection. And Miami sneakily has a pretty good pass rush. Like they're not a team that doesn't have guys. I mean, Chop Robinson say what you want about the kid as a rookie, he's kind of turned it around here this the second half of the season. So, yeah, Chad, I don't know, maybe we'll come around more so in Miami on Thursday, but as we sit here right now, I still like them. I'm, I'm, I'm not going to force to be one of our five. But it's like I am really intrigued with this game and this number just because I think there is value still on this Miami side.
- [67:05]
Matt Mitchell
So the reason I didn't make it my exact decision and I leaned bills is I something you just said in the middle? It feels like the Niners get a pick and this is a different number. And it feel. I feel like. I feel like the books are saying to me, take the short favorite. That's what we want you to do.
- [67:32]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [67:32]
Matt Mitchell
And even though the money has been coming into Miami and I like seeing that I'm on the right side of the wise guys right now, there's something about it that is keeping me from sort of exuberant, irrational confidence.
- [67:45]
Chad Millman
Let's come down. It did touch two and a half, Chad. So your initial read was. Right. We did our show Sunday night, Monday morning. At one point it touched two and a half and then we saw professional money hit the 49ers and it came back down to, okay, one and a half one. So it is. It is a pretty split game, I'll say that.
- [67:59]
Matt Mitchell
All right, there you go. So some. My. My spidey senses are tingling that it's not perfect for me. Whereas the Bills, as soon as you said you've got this at 17 or 17 and a half and we're at 14, I'm like, yeah, all right. That's what I needed to hear. Jacksonville at the Las Vegas Raiders. This line has flipped. It's gone from Jacksonville plus one to Raiders plus one. I don't know. Like, I guess, like, we take the jabs, but I don't want to do anything with this game that's fair.
- [68:35]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I bet the Jags I threw them in a couple teasers because it was plus one and a half. And you're right, like, a couple books have now flipped to the Jags are favorite, which we talked about was going to happen Sunday night. If you want to avoid it for right now, I'm fine with that. I might have a better opinion come Thursday because, yeah, I'm. People clearly can tell. I love Mack Jones and the Jaguars offense right now. They're just a fun team that can move the ball and vice versa. This Raiders team just looks dreadful. Totally quit. I mean, miracle cover last night. I think they had three field goals to get the back door. They're just terrible.
- [69:13]
Matt Mitchell
And they had. There were multiple special teams miscues, block kicks, blocked punts. Like, it's a pathetic team. We can talk about it again on, like in my notes I'm like, Mac Jones is irrationally confident.
- [69:34]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [69:34]
Matt Mitchell
For a guy who is named Mac Jones. Do you know what I mean? He swaggers. He walks around like he owns the place.
- [69:41]
Chad Millman
Oh, but the one he's barking at, these D lineman who could snap him in half like a twig. I'm just like, this dude's the fucking worst.
- [69:47]
Matt Mitchell
Yeah, it's. He's such a punk.
- [69:49]
Chad Millman
But this is all about perspective, too, though, right? Because when Josh Allen does it, I'm like, oh, this guy's fucking hilarious. He's the man. But when Mac Jones does, it's like, shut the fuck up, Mack Jones.
- [69:58]
Matt Mitchell
Josh Allen is, you know, 6 11, 400 pounds and runs like a gazelle and has a can for an arm and is going to win the mvp. Mac Jones is a guy who alienated his teammates in. In New England, is now a backup on the worst team, one of the worst teams in the league. So, Tampa Bay at Dallas. We both leave Dallas on Sunday night. The lines moved in that direction. Four and a half to four. Is it three and a half in some spots, at four. At bet365. Like, Dallas is clearly better with Micah Parsons. He's been a menace since coming back. Seven and a half sacks since he came back. Here's the wild card to me, which I don't think is getting discussed enough. Duron Bland, their cornerback, he came back from a fractured foot a month ago. With both of them in the lineup, they're three and one. And now, in context, that loss to the Bengals kind of looks like a fluke. Yeah, they seem to like Mike McCarthy. Haven't stopped playing for him. We like the Cowboys on Sunday just on instinct. I still like the Cowboys.
- [71:12]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Model backs up, too. This number should be three. That's four. Four and a half, like you're saying when it opened. Now, if you're lucky, you can find a 4. There's only a couple of books left. I still have the four out there like this, going down to three, three and a half. I know people are going to be like, these guys love all the home dogs this week, but it's all about the numbers, right? Like, we're getting a lot of the threes with the hook, and we're seeing that we're ahead of the movement, Right. The numbers are coming down. So clearly we're on the right side of professionals. And, yeah, every pro I talk to at the same view as us, right? They're hitting the four and a half on the Cowboys just because Tampa was a little inflated because of that one they just had the week before. And should they beat the Chargers? Sure. Should they have blown them out by double digits? No. That feels like a kind of a fluky game overall. So looking at this matchup with Tampa, me, Chad, we've given them ton of flowers, right? They're a very complete team. As an Eagles fan, I don't want to play them in the playoffs. Like, if Baker's hitting her right and this defense is clicking with a lot of the guys they had who played and past Super Bowls and their veteran defense, they're. They're pretty scary team. But this is the exact spot they let down. Like we've seen it time and time again with this Tampa team. After big wins, they kind of have let down games. You know, it's crazy looking back to Chad, that they lost those games to Atlanta, where it's like Kirk has been terrible all season. Some reason he just would blow out the stamp of team in those two games they played. But yeah, like early in the year, me and you took different positions on Tampa. And most of the times we took them, we're after big wins to fade them, right? It wasn't even when they were. They were healthy at this point, right. Like they upset Detroit, a game that burned us. Me and Chat were on Detroit that game. We hammered the Denver the following week, which looking back is kind of funny, but Denver went down there and smoked them, right. I think they won 27 to 7 or 26 to 7. Like they killed him. Okay. The next week they beat the Eagles. The following week they had a huge letdown game once again against Atlanta. So we've seen time and time again when they had these big wins, these like really tone setting wins. They've had let down games the following week. So we don't know what kind of game we're getting from Baker. But overall I feel like this Cowboys team with Cooper Rush, they kind of know their identity here, which is just force feed CD Lamb, like basically run the same playbook they had with Dakota, but even more so getting the ball in CD Land's hand makes them make plays. And I don't really see anyone on the cornerback side that can really slow down or stop CD in this matchup. So I like us always abandon. I like us to cover this backdoor, this number or even when outright, like this is a game, I'll throw in our money on Robin. Like Cowboys. To me, they're a live dog right now.
- [73:47]
Matt Mitchell
I couldn't agree more. This just in from producer Gifford. Jerry Jones just said on the radio, he promises this is real. So I'm entirely depending on Gifford. I've eaten a lot of raccoon. It's not uncommon at all. One of my favorites is squirrel. It's wonderful. My mom and I would even ask for the brain of the squirrel. Delicious. Seriously. Jerry Jones. Today on the radio. Go Cowboys. New Orleans at Green Bay. Green bay is a 13 and a half point favorite. Is this the game you were talking about, a big favorite you like, or was it the Bills?
- [74:29]
Chad Millman
No, that was the Bills. This. This game I honestly want to avoid. I be on Green Bay, but this feels like a letdown spot for a Green Bay team that's about to literally go through just a juggernaut. Like they have, you know, a Vikings team on deck that I feel like they know is that's the game for them. So, yeah, this is tough. Like, I was trying to find a way to get on the screen Bay team. Cause they've honestly been so good to me. But knowing that this is coming up as their last tough game of the season against Minnesota, it's one that's gonna define their playoff seating. I could just see this being a letdown spot. And yeah, it's. We don't even know who quarterback is of New Orleans right now. If it's that rookie once again.
- [75:11]
Matt Mitchell
Well, it's supposed to be Spencer Rattler.
- [75:13]
Chad Millman
I would avoid it. If it's Spencer Rattler, I'd avoid it.
- [75:16]
Matt Mitchell
That's. That's what I would say. I want to avoid it because rather also Alvin Kamara might not play. Like, he. He left that last game with a groin injury. And he is not. There's no update on his status, so we don't know if he's playing.
- [75:31]
Chad Millman
That would actually be a big deal. That would honestly push me towards Green Bay just because he has been the lifeblood of that team. Like, he's. Yeah, he's been incredible this season. And yeah, this. It's just a train wreck. Everything is just so bad right now in New Orleans. It's like they know they're tempted with this number 13 and a half. Just keeping it. Runner 14. They know what I want to do here, but I'm doing my best to fight it off.
- [75:52]
Matt Mitchell
Are they tempting us or are they challenging us?
- [75:55]
Chad Millman
That's true.
- [75:57]
Matt Mitchell
I think we got a good list for Thursday. A lot of home dogs. Couple of favorites. We got a big favorite with the Bills. Really fascinating to hear. What the wise guys have to say on Thursday was sharp calls. As a reminder, the favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page 11am Eastern Thursday to talk week 16 best bets. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, subscribe, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is gift. Till next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 24.7@1-800- gambler the flavor, the tradition and.
- [77:35]
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- [78:01]
Adnan Virk
What's up everybody? Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [78:06]
Simon Hunter
Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [78:12]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here too, okay? Each week we'll get together a job at the sport that we love.
- [78:16]
Simon Hunter
Tons of guests are going to join in too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies. We're talking TV food and adds favorite wrestling. It's all on le Table.
- [78:26]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virk and demers and the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [78:34]
Justin Penic
What's up everyone? It's Justin Penic from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays, breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did.