The Herd with Colin Cowherd – Episode Summary: "The Favorites - NFL Week 17 Betting Preview"

Release Date: December 24, 2024
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

1. Introduction to Week 17 NFL Betting

In this episode of "The Favorites," presenters Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve into the intricacies of NFL Week 17 betting. They analyze past performances, current trends, and provide expert insights to guide listeners through their betting strategies for the concluding week of the regular season.

2. Review of Previous Week's Betting Performance

Chad begins by recapping their previous week's betting outcomes:

• Record: 3 wins and 2 losses.
• Insight: Despite heavy reliance on favorites, three of their wins were on underdogs, highlighting the unpredictability of the current betting landscape.

Quote:

Chad Millman [05:29]: "Favorites have gone 170 and 70 straight up this year. 71% the most profitable season for straight-up favorites since 2013."

3. Favorites vs. Underdogs: Statistical Insights

The hosts discuss a significant shift in betting trends:

• Favorites: Experiencing their most profitable season in over a decade.
• Underdogs: Witnessing the least profitable season since 2005.
• Home Underdogs: Standing at 43% against the spread, marking the third least profitable season since 1990.

Quote:

Simon Hunter [06:33]: "Sometimes the spot and the number matter more than the players on the field."

4. Game-by-Game Analysis and Betting Picks

a. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• Betting Line: Chiefs as favorites with a 2.5 to 3-point spread.

• Discussion:
  Chad and Simon express skepticism about the Chiefs' ability to cover the spread, citing Pittsburgh's improved defense despite injuries.

  Quote:

  Simon Hunter [10:40]: "I think this is a Pittsburgh thing that we loved."

b. Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Betting Line: Ravens favored by 5.5 points.

• Discussion:
  They analyze Houston's defensive injuries and Baltimore's strategic strengths, leaning towards betting on Houston due to market corrections.

  Quote:

  Simon Hunter [17:32]: "I'm with you. I'm in no rush. I'll wait for the six."

c. Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears

• Betting Line: Seahawks as 3.5-point favorites.

• Discussion:
  Despite Seattle's strong performance against weaker teams, concerns about Chicago's execution lead to mixed feelings.

  Quote:

  Simon Hunter [22:39]: "I don't know what they're looking at here."

d. Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots

• Betting Line: Patriots as 4 to 5-point favorites.

• Discussion:
  The line movement sparks debate, with Chad favoring the Patriots due to offensive advantages and coaching mismatches.

  Quote:

  Jared Goff [28:38]: "This is a low number. It makes no sense to me."

e. Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

• Betting Line: Packers as 1-point favorites.

• Discussion:
  The Packers' physical play and consistency are weighed against the Vikings' explosive offense. Chad shows a preference for Green Bay despite Simon's affinity for Minnesota.

  Quote:

  Simon Hunter [76:45]: "This is a game that's going to decide a lot of money in the future market."

f. Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Betting Line: Buccaneers favored by 8 points.

• Discussion:
  The inflated spread against Carolina raises questions. Both hosts express confusion over the bookmaker's rationale, leaning towards betting the Panthers despite the high spread.

  Quote:

  Jared Goff [56:23]: "We have to, we might have to make Minnesota Green Bay."

g. Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns

• Betting Line: Browns favored by 6.5 points.

• Discussion:
  With uncertainties around Cleveland's quarterback, the hosts debate the reliability of betting on the Browns, ultimately favoring them due to Miami's defensive vulnerabilities.

  Quote:

  Simon Hunter [74:33]: "I love Cleveland here."

h. Others:

• Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
• New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints

Each game is dissected with a focus on team performance trends, injury impacts, and strategic betting approaches. The hosts emphasize patience and strategic placement of bets, especially in games with "fishy" lines.

5. Contest Updates and Reminders

Chad and Simon remind listeners about the ongoing $100,000 Pro Football Fic'em contest:

• Deadline: Picks must be submitted by 1 PM Eastern on Saturday, not Sunday.
• Inclusion: All Saturday games are now part of the contest, providing more betting options.
• Leaderboard: Highlighting top contenders and encouraging timely submissions to avoid disqualification.

Quote:

Chad Millman [25:36]: "If you are participating in the Favorites Pick Them contest this week, your picks must be in by 1pm on Saturday, not Sunday."

6. Notable Quotes and Insights

• On Betting Trends:
  Chad Millman [05:29]: "Favorites have gone 170 and 70 straight up this year. 71% the most profitable season for straight up favorites since 2013."

• On Game Strategy:
  Simon Hunter [06:33]: "Sometimes you make bets on teams and you can just tell some guys aren't going 100%."

• On Market Corrections:
  Jared Goff [06:33]: "There's a little bit of correct correction in the market."

• On Suspicious Betting Lines:
  Simon Hunter [27:47]: "These, these games, these last couple of weeks with the Seattle team… they have not been good against good teams, but really beat up on bad teams."

7. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As Week 17 approaches, Chad and Simon emphasize the importance of understanding current betting trends and remaining adaptable to market shifts. They encourage listeners to leverage the insights shared to make informed betting decisions, while also reminding them to participate in the ongoing contest for a chance to win substantial prizes.

Final Reminder:

Chad Millman [90:00]: "Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, subscribe, leave us. 5 stars."

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of NFL Week 17 betting scenarios, backed by statistical trends and expert commentary. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or a casual fan, Chad and Simon offer valuable perspectives to enhance your betting strategy for the final stretch of the NFL season.