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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
Holiday magic is in the air and DSW's got all the shoes to make your season extra merry. Believe you've got parties to attend and list to check twice. So DSW is taking care of the details like gifts to make their eyes all aglow, styles that bring joy to your world, brands everyone wants like Ugg, Nike, Birkenstock and more and deals to make your budget bright. Find the perfect shoes for you and yours at a DSW store near you or dsw.com Thursday Night Football is on. And it's only on Prime Video Breaking.
- [00:35]
Simon Hunter
The tackle touchdown tonight. Keep the holiday celebration going as the.
- [00:40]
Chad Millman
Seattle Seahawks take on the Chicago Bears.
- [00:42]
Jared Goff
You're gonna love this.
- [00:43]
Chad Millman
Coverage begins with TNF tonight. Not a Prime member. Sign up for a 30 day free.
- [00:48]
Simon Hunter
Trial to stream the game.
- [00:49]
Chad Millman
It's the Seahawks and Bears tonight only on Prime Video.
- [00:53]
Simon Hunter
Restrictions apply.
- [00:54]
Chad Millman
See Amazon.com amazonprime for details. The holidays are here and so is the Ikea Winter Sale. Now's your chance to make the holidays a little more magical and less expensive. Save up to 50% off on select items in store and online now through January 7th. Plus IKEA loyalty members get an extra 10% off on sale items offer valid in the US through 17 mall supplies. Last selection may vary by store and online. See store@ikea-usa.com wintersale for complete terms. Restrictions apply.
- [01:22]
Jared Goff
Dear Toyota, I need a word with you about your Crown family. I started driving one and sudden suddenly I love traffic. No, really, rush hour is my happy place. Intentional wrong turns feel so right. I could sit in the comfort of my crown forever, basking in its elegance, feeling on top of the world. But you see how this is strange for me, right? Who gets excited about traffic? This is on you, Toyota. And send the captivating Toyota Crown Family Toyota. Let's go places.
- [01:52]
Simon Hunter
Hey, what's up? I'm Jared Goff, quarterback for the Detroit Lions. The holidays get busy but I still want to pull up to events looking put together. Abercrombie's latest drop of party look is taking me through the season for date nights, hanging with the guys and even New Year's Eve. They have outfits for every occasion.
- [02:06]
Chad Millman
I'm big on sweater, polos and trousers.
- [02:08]
Simon Hunter
With a wool blend coat over top for those really fancy holiday events. Abercrombie has suiting options too. Shop Abercrombie for every night out.
- [02:25]
Jared Goff
Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday week 17 episode, we'll break down the entire slate of NFL games. We will also discuss our exec decision. Our Simon says start to narrow down the options for our faves. Five faves to put into the favorites podcast $100,000 Pro Football Fic'em contest. We went three and two this past week. We are live from our Tommy John home studios. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. Mary. Mary, Chad.
- [03:13]
Simon Hunter
How we doing, brother?
- [03:15]
Jared Goff
It's a weird day. It's a day before Christmas. We're doing this show early, obviously because it's Christmas Eve, so people aren't going to be around potentially in the afternoon. Feel like my whole day is working at like an hour later than it really should right now. Feeling like we're working, but we're not. But I'm doing everything I do on a work day. You know that feeling a little bit.
- [03:39]
Simon Hunter
But not really just because of what my job is like. I've been working since Sunday night to get all this done for the day. So it's like it's another day of work. But as soon as we get done here, I'm kind of looking forward to, like, Christmas a little bit. So I'm still not fully Christmas, even getting your present. I forgot to get you a present because I'm so locked in, Chad. But yeah, I, I honestly, it's, it's just another week of work. The weirdest part is just what we're about to talk about. These, this, these Wednesday games truly is throwing me off. Like, I can't believe we football tomorrow.
- [04:11]
Jared Goff
It's, yeah, it's, it's, it's. And my wife already bought tickets for a movie and I kind of forgot about the Christmas games. And now I'm going, she's going, my kid is going. I've got myself wrapped in a pretzel of conflicting emotions right now. So we had the Cowboys on Sunday night to go 3 and 2. Matt Mitchell slacked something brilliant in response, which was it felt like the first normal. I put that in quotes. Home Underdog game in 100 years. Like, I agree, it felt like a game that we used to bet automatically last year that we would win automatically last year. It never felt like we weren't going to cover. And that was even though, like, they were without Dak Prescott, without Zach Martin, without DeMarcus laws, without Trayvon Diggs, without Eric Kendrick. I wasn't doing gambler's math until like the middle of the fourth quarter when I was trying to think okay, are they going to score 14 points, cover this four and a half point spread. Like my confidence should have been completely unwarranted because they were outgained. They had 10 fewer first downs. But sometimes Simon, the spot and the number matter more than the players on the field. Isn't that right?
- [05:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it was also a game where it felt like the Cowboys were just playing really hard. Like there's sometimes you make bets on teams and you can just tell some guys aren't going 100%. That game like legitimately felt like a team that was playing angry and had something to prove to people on that prime time game. Like they're hitting hard offensively. I mean I like you just said. I know that Baker and the Bucks out gained their offense but the Cowboys offense played much better than the Bucks offense. I mean Cooper Rush had a great game but yeah, that that was classic thing of that number was never really in doubt. Especially towards the end. There were just like even if it even was at nine, it was like okay, even if they scored two touchdowns here, me and Chad are still. Okay, we'll still cover this number hopefully because there'll be some wacky field goal in there. But then you know, it did get a little tight there at the end where we just. We've had it before where this the team gets a fluke touchdown at the very end and we don't cover the number. But yeah, on a week that was once again all about the favorites. Our three wins came on three dogs.
- [06:33]
Jared Goff
Amazing. So favorites have gone. I want to update this because it's been such a strange year. Favorites have gone 170 and 70 straight up this year. 71% the most profitable season for straight up favorites since 2013. It's also the least profitable season for underdogs on the money line since 2005. We're talking almost 20 years. Teams getting more than 60% of spread bets have gone 56% against the spread this year. That is a rarity. Here's the biggest one. Home underdogs are just 43% against the spread which would be the third least profitable season since 1990. Here's the good news. Here's the good news. There was a little bit of correct correction in the market. Favorites only went 3 and 4 straight up and we 16 after 7 and oh in week 15 and 14 and 1 between week 13 and 15 since week 5, the favorites win percentage of 75% would be the second best win percentage on the money line from week 5. On since 1990 and the highest in 20 years. The win percentage for against the spread also the highest since 2005. So I don't know if we reached the peak of the market. That's kind of what I'm hoping because on Sunday afternoon and Evening, Underdogs went 4 and 1. The only favorite that won was the Raiders, who started as underdogs and three of those teams that covered Seattle, Miami and Dallas were home underdogs. So let's hope we've reached the bottom of this favorite driven market. Let's hope this long national nightmare assignment is over. Seven underdogs at home this week. We're going to run through it. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet$5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. If you are listening to this podcast, this might be the most important thing we say today. I'm not even kidding. Absolutely crucial. Lean in to your phones, your radio dials, whatever it is. If you participate in the Favorites Pick Them contest this week, your picks must be in by 1pm on Saturday, not Sunday. Saturday, 1pm deadline for the favorites contest picks for all five picks. Not Sunday. We're including the Saturday games in the contest this week, but if we do that, you must make your picks by 1pm on Saturday. Get those in by Saturday, 1pm, not Sunday. For week 17. Good luck. I'm trying to be very clear, explicit. Get those picks in Saturday, 1pm all right, Wednesday, first Christmas game Kansas City at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's a three point dog at home. For two weeks we have bet the Steelers as underdogs. Classic Tomlin Ra Spots and loss. He can cover with Doc Hodges at quarterback, but not without George Pickens. And we do expect George Pickens to be back. Numbers move from two and a half to three. A public move because the public is on the Chiefs, but the money is on the Steelers. Simon, you don't necessarily disagree with the pros here.
- [10:41]
Simon Hunter
My kids want to have a good Christmas I. I do and I don't. I. The Pittsburgh number, to me, hasn't moved enough. That's my issue with the number. Like, I think the value is still in the Chiefs. And, yeah, there's still a bunch of books out there, especially, I don't know about up in Connecticut, but here in Jersey, that have actually gone back to two and a half because of what you just said. The professionals are hitting the three when it gets there on Pittsburgh. And, yeah, this. This, to me, is a game where I wanted to be on Pittsburgh, but the number didn't move enough for me. If this was three and a half, I would honestly be way more tempted to take Pittsburgh just because of that. And what we talk about all the time, when it's Mahomes and three or less, you tend to want to back Mahomes in this exact spot in this number. So the matchup on the field, it all feels like it's good for Kansas City. Like, the secondary is just so banged up for Pittsburgh, you know, Joey Porter might miss this. You know, that. That's a big deal. We talked last week, or I should say yesterday, but the Ravens, just as soon as he went out of that game, they kept attacking whoever came in for him. Right. That young corner that, you know, played. All right, but you could clearly see that he was like a fish out of the water. And I know that, you know, the coaches can try to work with him on, what, five days before their next game, but it's, like, not enough time to really get this guy, you know, into this defense, to kind of figure out a game plan to kind of hide them or maybe even give them safety help. Whatever they're going to do. I know Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are going to attack that. So, yeah, this is a Pittsburgh thing that we loved. I think they started the year five, and I was a dog. Like we talked about, we had been betting them, and they've dropped two straight here. And this feels like another just bad spot for this team. And we talk coming to the season that this was going to be an insane run for this Pittsburgh team. Like, they had 11 days of just pure hell. You know, any team having to face the Eagles, Ravens, and the chiefs, let alone 11 and 11 days just being put in a horrible spot by the NFL. So Pittsburgh was the type of team that felt like this season coming in, you know, we all had doubts, we all had questions, and it really came down to the quarterback position, and obviously we were wrong on it. Russell Wilson came in and played amazing, but that Feels like to me that it's worn out a little bit these last couple weeks. Like, he's been inconsistent. He's been turning the ball over. Not something that he was doing when they were on such a great run. So, you know, not that he's turned back into a pumpkin, Russell Wilson, but it's also like he was not what we saw in that Cincinnati game. If you go back and watch that Cincinnati tape, that looked like Russell Wilson from 2013, 2014. Just perfect throws deep downfield, smart read every time. Now he's playing against a bunch of real defenses and he's been struggling these last couple weeks. And I think the same is going to happen here with Spags you have. Pickens is back playing at 80%. I know that's an upgrade for them. That's. That's really helpful, but I don't think it's going to be a difference maker. They need to beat this Chiefs team. So if you can get the two and a half again, there's plenty of them out there. I'd grab it now in the Chiefs team. I can just see this being three by kickoff.
- [13:38]
Jared Goff
Yeah, it's a. It's such an interesting spot. Mahomes 26, 9 and 1 as a dog or a favorite of three or less. So even if. Even if you get the three, you're still leaning into the advantage of betting on momes. The flip side is that Mike Tomlin is just as good as a dog at home in this spot.
- [14:05]
Simon Hunter
I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we can make one of you guys quit today.
- [14:10]
Jared Goff
To me, that's either like balancing it out and then you're really thinking about who's the better team here. And would you rather bet on Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson? Would you rather bet on Patrick Mahomes, who? We started to see Hollywood Brown get incorporated into the office. We're seeing in the offense. We're seeing them use Xavier Worthy in different spots in different ways. Some of the pressure being taken off him because of Hollywood Brown. Like, I think this team is getting better offensively. What's interesting, we've seen the past two weeks that they covered as favorites of more than three, which they never do, and they've done it in really interesting ways. And they've been scoring more points. Especially that Texans game. I thought they were great. So I kind of feel the same way you do. You know, the Chiefs, if this. If this game has more points than expected, which I think it's going to go over the 43, it's trending now at 43 and a half. I like the Chiefs ability to execute more than I like the Steelers right now.
- [15:24]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And we talked about how like again, we were just a week early on that Chargers game. We knew that it was going to go the other way for the Chiefs. They had at one point they hadn't covered in seven or eight straight games, which was the longest of Andy Reid's career as a coach. And it was like the bad luck and the little breaks just aren't going their way yet. They're still winning because they're such a great team with Mahomes and we joked about it. It's like no team in my lifetime, I can tell you I will ever remember it, that came off two stage. Super Bowls has the one seed as a 131 record or 141 now. And so many people just being like, ah, they're not that good though. It's just an insane society we live in right now. So yeah, the, the disrespect had gone too far. And you know, the, it's, it's not shocking that like you just said, the professionals are coming on the Spittsburg team because of the history and the number. Right. If it's three, I totally get what they're coming from. Right. That's, that feels like that's, that's the, the, the mark. They don't want to let it get past the three, the professionals. But two and a half, I don't know how you can now take the Chiefs of that number.
- [16:28]
Jared Goff
Maybe I'm trying to put this into a pretty package to help myself rationalize it. It feels like at two and a half you're betting on the player and at three you're betting on the magic and mysticism of the Steelers coach. You know what I mean?
- [16:41]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [16:41]
Jared Goff
Like, there's nothing about the Steelers on the field that makes you feel like they could win that G, they could cover that game. It's only about Tomlin putting his team in the position to do it. That's a lot to bank on Mike Tomlin when his quarterback isn't as effective as he was early in the year. Baltimore, Houston. Houston's a five and a half point dog right now. Massive, massive move overnight on this game. Some weird big moves in the last 24 hours on all these games are a bunch of these games. Baltimore went from four to five and a half as a favorite. Seems to be professional money. 64% of the tickets on the Texans, but 85% of the money on Baltimore. I got a lot of thoughts on this, but what is up with that? And like I've been looking for a reason to bet the Texans and I feel like I just got it in the number.
- [17:33]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, especially because it's a short week. We know historical Lamar is not done great on short weeks, especially on the road. And the movement, to me, Chad is just protecting against the number. Right. It's. I think the books realize that they might not have factor in enough of the Tank Dell injury to that Houston offense and how important he's been to cj. Like not not only is he his best friend, but it's a guy that he looks for in big spots because Nico Collins has become the guy that just gets the doubles. Like he's always getting the double teams downfield now. And that clears out a lot of what Tank Dell likes to do. But I'm with you. Like I, I already liked Houston in this spot. Like again, it was a short week. You want to fade them more in a short week. And I just knew the public was going to come in so heavy on the Ravens after that. I mean just a dominant win against a Pittsburgh team that he struggled against in his career. You know, on the flip side, Houston, like you just said, they got rolled a little bit against the Chiefs, but you know, that's a little bit of the Chiefs luck and magic. Right? The Chiefs, Mahomes got basically strip sacked. Houston walked it in for a touchdown. Instead they said it was a forward pass, his arm was moving forward and they gave my homes 15 yards. And Mahomes, just as soon as you gave him that little bit of a lifeline, he drove the field and scored a touchdown. Just basically put the game away. So this is a Houston team that, you know, I get the doubt like I'm having doubt myself because of their injuries, Chad. And that's why it's like I'm not rushing about this. Obviously I like it at five and a half, but why does this not get the six, six and a half by kickoff? Like we already know everyone in the world is going to come in, especially if the Chiefs are still under two and a half. People don't care about Wong teasers. They're going to tease through zero, get the Chiefs up to three and a half and then take this Ravens team down to a pick like that to me is going to be the Sunday move for most public betters, which I don't think it's a bad decision. Like we had Evan tell us you want to bet these favorites in these kind of type of really short, weak Spots, especially ones that, you know, all these teams are going through the same thing of you know, three games in 11 days. Like that's, that's a big deal. It's tens of favorite the better teams in these matchups. And you know, we can both agree the Ravens are clearly a better team than Houston right now because of health and the injuries that Houston's have had. So I'm on Houston with you. I'm in no rush. I'll wait for the six. If you didn't listen to our show, convince me. I'll give it out. Even I should go make you click on the link. But I liked Houston first half too because it is three and a half. CJ Stroud 12 and three against the spread this season in the first half spread. So that's, that's a nice little gift they're giving to us, that hook. Because most books are still sitting on two and a half and just getting tons of first half money on the Ravens. And to me they're overlooking that this is a short week. They're on the road, this Ravens team and how dominant this Houston team has been in the first half.
- [20:24]
Jared Goff
One teasers. You know, for Tracy in Wisconsin, for all you smartless fans, it's basically teasing. You take a two team teaser and you tease the number. That six point teaser threw a key number of three or seven. So that's what Simon is talking about with the Wong teaser. Baltimore's past defense has been improving. They move Kyle Hamilton from sort of moving them around, keeping him in the box, basically keeping them in the defensive backfield because their backfield has had so many problems. Whether it was Eddie Jackson or Marcus Williams or a lot of signings that haven't worked out. I think they're finally figuring that out. The biggest issues, not just Tank Dell, the Texans. Shaq Mason did not practice. Jimmy Ward, who would replace Jeff Petrie in the defensive backfield. Now both of them are out. Their secondary is even thinner. The one thing I keep coming back to Lamar is a fave of 3 or more, 46%. So we just had the same thing with the Cowboys, right? A team at home, a favorite, lot of injuries, hot team on the other side, hot quarterback. We're going to be on the Texans here.
- [21:51]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's just all about the number though, right? It's, it's, it's. I just feel like we don't need a rush to grab it because why would this not keep going up?
- [21:57]
Jared Goff
Let's just wait. Let's be patient. Seattle of Chicago three and a Half Thursday night game Bears three and a half point dogs on the road. I feel like I got Seattle in the exact right spot last week against Minnesota and I feel like if they were playing anyone else except the Bears and they were three and a half point favorites on the road, I would 100% fade them. But the Bears have yet to be able to execute in the first half since Thomas Brown became the head coach. I think if they'll have a couple of good drives in the second half, they're going to give betters hope. Inevitably they're going to give up a game covering drive to snuff out any dreams. Do you have any thoughts on this game?
- [22:40]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. I know you covered Seattle last week, but 90% of betters who just wait till last minute, they wait till Sunday to bet they did not. I mean that number was 2.
- [22:49]
Jared Goff
Listeners should listen to the show because we were giving it out at three and a half on Tuesday.
- [22:55]
Simon Hunter
We were, but I'm just saying in general, like, I know you're counting that as a win, but it's, it's not for the most part. Right. That was a bad loss for the books. The books thought they had a good, a good trap there for Minnesota and Seattle and they were looking pretty smart. Seattle was up 4, a couple minutes to go. And once again, like this, the insanity that is Sam Darnold somehow drove the field while getting the shit kicked out of him and threw just an insane pass for that comeback touchdown. So I wanted to be on the Bears, you know, short week, the Seattle team traveling. But Chad just said it. How, how does anyone in their right mind back in this Bears team, what are you backing? Like, what do you, I guess you could be like, well, this is a short week. Seattle's traveling. You know, the Bears have played better at home. Yada, yada, yada. I don't know what they're looking at here. Even, even breaking down the matchups. Like this is a good matchup for the Seattle front four against this, this, this Bears front. Like they got injuries to the offensive line devastating.
- [23:50]
Jared Goff
Braxton Jones done and like they weren't even playing that well. Left tackle and now the only guy who was decent is out. Yeah, it's a, it's a train wreck.
- [24:01]
Simon Hunter
And Caleb, I, I mean, you know, we joked that this season we thought he was going to set records. He set the sack record. Right. So it's not great for him either where he already has issues, hold on to the ball too long and now he's going to be down more linemen Fit against a D line that can get after it. And you know, this is a number where they're trying to suck us in. They're giving us the hook on the three and a half and they say, come, come take this because this is a backdoor opportunity for the Chicago team. But I don't know, it just feels like the type of game we've seen it like these last couple of weeks with the Seattle team that, you know, they have not a couple weeks all season they've struggled against good teams, but they really do beat up on bad teams. Like they. That is. Seems like that's their strength this season. So, yeah, I'm gonna. I'm gonna go chalk side the heavy public side. I'll take Seattle minus three and a half.
- [24:50]
Jared Goff
Wow, you'd actually take Seattle. For me, it would just be a pass.
- [24:55]
Simon Hunter
I mean, you can pass it. I would. I'm just giving out because I'm already betting it. Like I already bet them first half as well. Seattle minus two and a half. So I. I'm just in on this where I know I'm gonna better, brother. It's Thursday night. It's a standalone game. I just. I won't be able to help myself. So, yeah, I'm just getting out of it now. I'll be on Seattle. Obviously. I'm like Chad, though. Like my. My biggest bet by far these three games is Chiefs minus two and a half. And it's not close. Like, yeah, very, very small bets on Houston and Seattle. Just testing the water. Put my toe in. I'm all in on the Chiefs. I think that is a really good number. I'm hitting that one hard. So, yeah, I get your hesitation with this one. It's doesn't feel great, but it's just all about playing the number.
- [25:37]
Jared Goff
Contest recap. Week 16, first place winner, Dry Biz. Dry Biz went 5 0, got within two of the tiebreaker. He's taken home $1,000. As always, Matt Mitchell has selected the Producers cup award to the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest. Have you heard about the lonesome loser? He's a loser, but he still keeps on trying. This week's Producers cup going to Jackson West 54, who went 05 and missed the tiebreaker by nearly 300 yards. Nice job, Jackson West. Email our producer@podcastctionnetwork.com to claim your prize. Reminder once again, I don't want to have to say it again and again and again. I want you guys to listen. I want you to write it down. I want you to Be ready. The cutoff to make your picks this week is Saturday at 1pm Eastern, not Sunday. This week, the Saturday games are in the contest. Everybody must submit their picks by 1pm on Saturday. At the very top of our leaderboard, two entries have 57 total points. Ten folks have 52 or more. It'll be an absolute dog bite to the finish line and our $40,000 first place prize. It will be crushing if some of these entries do not submit because they do not keep up with the podcast and are not aware that you have to submit by 1pm on Saturday. And guess who's not going to be sympathetic when they get the emails about this? Matt Mitchell. You've never met anybody who's less sympathetic when people have been warned about doing something the right way than Matt Mitchell. He's an absolute officious bastard.
- [27:19]
Simon Hunter
Do you think it would kill you to say, good job, Matt?
- [27:22]
Jared Goff
All right, Simon, this next game, it's. I got an itch about it. La Chargers and New England Patriots. Another big move overnight. This one in the direction of the Patriots from five to four. I love the Chargers here. This doesn't make any sense to me. I love the Chargers at 5. I love them even more at 4. Why is this line moving?
- [27:48]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, one of the stickiest lines of the week. I had this model out at six and a half, so I'm. I'm with you. That I initially was like, oh, this is a great charger spot. But what is going on here, Chad? The professionals are taking a stand. Insert the sports books because it's all the money right now. All the tickets are on the Chargers. And you just talked about it. It's dropped now. Some books have moved at two points. They moved it from six all the way down to four. That's crazy. And that's. Dude, that's key numbers. It's moving through right now. So maybe we're missing something. We should be on the Patriots, Chad. That's all I'm thinking here. It's like the. The books are trying to tell us here that this Chargers team that we all perceive as being really good, and we talked about it like we. We've had questions about them because of the injuries they've had these last couple weeks. Maybe we're overrating them. What do you, like, what do you think that, like, that's what the books are telling us here?
- [28:38]
Jared Goff
That the books to me are saying. They're saying Drake May is a very accurate passer against a secondary and a back seven that may be in trouble and has been Decreasingly effective over the past six, seven, eight weeks. But I'm looking at this as overvaluing the Patriots because they got out to an early lead and then they scored seven garbage points at the end of the game against a Bills team that played horribly. Justin Herbert, to me, is going to destroy this secondary. Like, he is so accurate if he is not pressured and the chart and the Patriots cannot get pressure. This is a coaching mismatch. This is a low number. It makes no sense to me. This is going to be my executive decision.
- [29:33]
Simon Hunter
No.
- [29:34]
Jared Goff
Yeah. Why? Why?
- [29:39]
Simon Hunter
Because we don't. We need more time on this one. You know, Justin Herbert, the Oregon boys numbers in the freezing cold. I mean, there's just, there's something going on here, Chad. It's literally. They just won on Thursday night. And he put up 34 points against Denver. Like he's coming off arguably his best game of the year in a prime time game. And the public is absolutely hammered. Yes, I agree with you. The books have been terrible this year. Like they've hung some horrible numbers.
- [30:03]
Jared Goff
This makes no sense. Like I. This was one of four games I had pegged as a. An executive decision.
- [30:09]
Simon Hunter
Well, don't do this one. Let me protect you. There's just something too fishing. I need time on it because I'm with you. Like my model. I personally like this spot for basically what everything you just said, like New England, how they not inflated coming off that game against the Bills. But we talked about it. That felt like that was more about the Bills having that game than it was them. But no, look, there's just something totally off and fishy about this game. And I, I just. Maybe again, because it's a 1 o'clock game or whatever, it's going to be 1 o'clock game, east coast in the cold. Like, I'm just trying to look for narratives about why they've moved this so much because like we just talked about this. This Patriots team is bad. Like Herbert should have a day against this team.
- [30:52]
Jared Goff
It makes no sense, Simon. No sense. I have to choose an executive decision by the end of the show. And I appreciate you trying to protect me and I want to honor that because you have more access to information than I do in certain areas. And so if you're uncomfortable with it. But I, I went all in because you said, what are we missing here? Because you agree and your number has it at 6 and your number, like it's not wrong that often.
- [31:22]
Simon Hunter
It isn't. But I'm just the guys. I know we're hitting this Patriot side. I just know that, like, they're not just doing it to do it. Like, they're actually. They know something that we're missing here. And, like, that's why I want to get more time to talk to them and figure out why, because, you know, not that I don't know why they're doing. I kind of have an idea for it. I'm just very skeptical where I just know that this is going to be. 90% of the bets, 90% of tickets, every, Every teaser, every parlay, all this stuff, all the Saturday games, we already seen it. All these favorites are just being bet up like crazy right now for this Saturday matchup. So it's just. If this was a year of a normal year of us doing well on dogs, this would honestly be a big spot for me to back the Patriots. Like, this lines up in a lot of ways to like this Patriots team. But just because the favorites have done so well, I'm not throwing it out saying we can't bet this and put in our contest. It's just I'm being hesitant right now because it's like, this number does not make sense.
- [32:16]
Jared Goff
What do you think the story is? Is it information or is it something different?
- [32:25]
Simon Hunter
I think it's information. And I also just think that it's like there's something we're missing because it just feels so easy. Like, we just talked about this. This is a legit good team, this Charger team. They're a legit good playoff team playing against a bad New England team that wants to lose. Like, they don't want to keep winning and move their draft stock. And it felt like that was New England's everything game again. I don't want to keep wasting more time on this one, but it's like, I'm just. I don't want to make. I don't want to let you make it executive because not that I was kicking myself about letting you make the Bills it last week, but I was just like, I felt like that was added character for us in this show. And it feels the same here with this one, where it's like we're always on the other side of this one, but this year is just. We're trying to be more into favorites, and we've just been picking the wrong one. I feel like this is the wrong favorite to back.
- [33:12]
Jared Goff
Listen, you don't let me do anything. I'm my own man. I'm a man.
- [33:17]
Simon Hunter
I'm a man in the contest, you're clear. Your own man. I mean, you put them in.
- [33:22]
Jared Goff
The Chargers played New England last year at a 1:00 game. They won six nothing. But yeah, these favorites are fucking us up. And of course last week we wanted to pick a favorite for the contest. We went all in on the Bills because why not go all in on the best player in football who's having a magical year. And the team always blows out in figure competition and at home in bad weather and of course against the worst team in the NFL, they be they can't cover. So. But everybody else does. The packers do. The Lions do. The Bengals do. The Falcons do. We pick the one. I was watching that packers game last night and that's what I was thinking. I'm like, are you kidding me? We picked the one massive cover m massive favorite they couldn't cover signing. Here we are as in olden days, happy golden days of yore. Faithful sponsors who were dear to us gather deals for us once more. And with a special sale for our listeners, you can make the Gift of Tommy John your newest holiday tradition. By now all our listeners know that Tommy John has thousands of 5 stars reviews and they certainly know that they've been giving me those special Kringle tingles all month long. But with a special deal, they can do the same for you and your loved ones. Simon, why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John this season?
- [34:55]
Simon Hunter
Oh, we love Tommy John. It's the gift that lasts.
- [34:59]
Jared Goff
Right now you can shop tommyjohn.com favorites for the holidays and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn.com.com favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorites this is true. I got a package from Tommy John yesterday addressed to my son, delivered to my house. I have no idea if he bought it on his own. If it's a gift for me, I don't want to open it. It's for my kid who's in Philly in college. He's on his way home. I'm letting it lie, but I'm very excited to see what it is. If, if, if I bought myself Tommy John through him or if he bought it for himself. It's a mystery. Can't wait. I bet Matt Mitchell didn't think I was going to sing those first two lines for that ad. I know he likes to test me a little bit.
- [35:43]
Simon Hunter
Hey, guys, this is Matt Jones. Drew Franklin from the Fade. This podcast, we got a great episode coming up. Picks in all the sports, football, basketball, we do them all. But here's a preview of this week's episode. I've seen people in the gambling community kind of make jokes about Fade this and we just goof off and don't even talk about the games. Bring your records and set them on.
- [36:02]
Jared Goff
This table right now.
- [36:03]
Simon Hunter
All you out there that are spend two hours talking about the games and will in the last seven years and night games they've come in and haven't scored 20 points and you get too detailed. Bring your records right here to fade this.
- [36:15]
Jared Goff
We'll we'll talk about books and cooking.
- [36:18]
Simon Hunter
And Kevin Costner and still make more money betting on sports than you will. And this episode was brought to you in partnership with DraftKings.
- [36:26]
Chad Millman
To hear more, listen and subscribe to.
- [36:27]
Simon Hunter
Fade this on iHeartRadio or wherever you listen to podcasts.
- [36:31]
Chad Millman
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Jared Goff
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- [40:10]
Jared Goff
For all terms, visit petsbest.com denver@cincinnati ulean Cincinnati in our initial read on Sunday night, it's moving in that direction. Some places are at three and a half. The game opened at three. I'm not sure what's driving this. Tickets are 50 50. Money is heavy on Denver. This felt a little trappy to me, like Joe Burrow on a streak. The Broncos just lost in an ugly way in prime time, so I'm not loving the Bengals here. Are you still committed? You pot committed to the Bengals?
- [40:49]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's still taking a three. And it is all about just the scenario that we know that's about to play out here that they need to win this game. Cincinnati Denver does not. Denver can lose this game and then play against Carson Wentz and the Chiefs the following week to pretty much decide their playoff fate. They don't need this game. So that's, that's one right there that jumps out to me in the fact that, you know, I already have a little bit of not just reserve about how Bo Nix is going to do in this exact scenario, but this just feels like another game. Like just Joe Burrow won't lose. Like that he's going to somehow will his team and that, you know, they'll win out but they're not going to make the playoffs regardless. Just because what we just talked about, like it's lined up perfectly for this Denver team that if the Chiefs do win on Pittsburgh, this is a game that's going to really decide what I'm going to do with this one. Like if, if they win against Pittsburgh, not that I think they're going to arrest players, but they don't need to rest players. Denver is a young team. Everyone's going to play. I just don't know if the mental motivation is going to be there that I would have been if the Chiefs do lose to Pittsburgh and now they know that, you know, the Chiefs are going to be playing in the final week that's going to kind of change their game plan here. So it's fair. Cincinnati, like you're right, Chad. That defense getting three and a half against anybody that's not the Cleveland Browns, can't trust it. You cannot trust that Cincinnati team. So that, that to me is the key there. It's. It won't be mean. You're me in our contest because we already know we're never gonna get the two and a half. This is going up to three and a half. So that means we'll be three and a half hour contest. I'd much rather, if I had to make a play, I'd much rather take Denver at +3/2 come Saturday. But as we sit here right now with no info about what's gonna happen that Chiefs game, I've just bet the Bengals number at minus three. Just because we just talked about the movement. I thought it was. It'd go up on the Bengal side because of what we've already talked about. That Denver team, they Just they might not end up needing this game and they might just take it into week 18. But yeah, another line that, you know, you just said the money is coming in heavy on the Denver side, but it's to me, it's going to be in a huge public play, the Cincinnati team come Saturday.
- [42:57]
Jared Goff
Yeah, it doesn't make any sense to me, honestly. Like, Denver's pass rush can be just as effective as Cleveland's, which was in Burroughs Grill all day on Sunday. Sacked him four times. Also, it's why he looks so good. He was scrambling his way into miracles. Like the play that everyone's talking about where he's throwing it while, you know, diving. That only happens because he literally had to do pirouettes to get out of a sack and out of the pocket. Denver is just as effective rushing the passer, if not more effective than Cleveland and they have better offensive strategy and better offensive coaching and better offensive players and a better quarterback. Cleveland, like, almost covered that game. Right. DTR just happens to be terrible, but they were in position to cover that game multiple times. So I don't have a strong opinion on Denver covering. I just have a stronger opinion that the Bengals are a bit inflated. But I don't think it's going to make it because like you said, we got to decide by 1 o'clock on Saturday and we won't know enough about how Denver is going to be approaching the game based on the Chiefs. I like your logic there. All right, Arizona at the Los Angeles Rams. This is another one that's been moving. We, we flagged it on Sunday night when it was.
- [44:12]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, that was really you. That was a great call by you Rams. You said you liked it at four, then you liked it at five, and now it's up to six.
- [44:18]
Jared Goff
Yeah, I liked it pre show. To be. To be honest, it moved from, I think four and a half to five to five and a half by the time we were off the show. I didn't get it until five and a half. So you can see that in the app. It's at 6. As my partner in the contest and on this show, how do you feel about me leaning into the Rams as an executive decision?
- [44:45]
Simon Hunter
I mean, you can do it. I mean, if the number, the number move hasn't scared you off, you don't think you're getting a bad number? I don't.
- [44:50]
Jared Goff
I do. It's like it's really why I don't want to do it because I feel like we've lost all the value and six is sort of where it's supposed to be. It's actually headed to six and a half. You look at the juice. So I really wanted to make this my executive decision. I was hoping it would stay below six. I think we might get five and a half in the contest.
- [45:11]
Simon Hunter
That'd be nice because I think the movement too. We talked about, like, Connor being hurt. That's a big deal for the Arizona team. Like, he's been so special for that offense. You know, as much praise we like to give the Kyler and what he's done this season. Thank you, Kyle, for getting us over the win total. Overall, he struggled, especially against good teams this season. And, you know, as much shock there is about this Rams team getting to this point, like, you know, they. They had another. Another year where they started out the gate really slow, and then as the year went along, they just got. Keep getting better. You can see the same scenario here. Like, we know that they basically got away with one of these last two games like that, that game against the 49ers. They got incredibly lucky. And then same thing happened with the Jets. This. This usually is a scenario where they don't get lucky and they just. They like, legit legitimately win this game and just beat the hell out of this Cardinals team. Because this is another game where, you know, Cardinals. Yes. Could they come in and play spoiler? Sure. I just don't know if they have that type of attitude. Like, I don't know about you, but.
- [46:14]
Jared Goff
Like, no, I don't think they do. I don't. I don't. I don't at all.
- [46:19]
Simon Hunter
And I just think that Carolina game literally took the wind out of their sails. Like, totally crushed that team. I mean, you. I read a really interesting piece about just no one spoke the flight home from Carolina. Like, that was the quietest flight. And shout to our guy, Chris Long, he talks all the time about those are the best moments of your life. Flying home a long flight after a big win and literally the worst thing you can experience in your lifetime after a really bad loss knocked out the playoffs to a Carolina team that at the time only had three wins. Like, that was brutal for them. And now they're supposed to bounce back from it on a short week against the Rams. I just. I can't see it. So it's like, I like. I like the Rams. I'm with you, though. The fear is that, you know, neither of us would be shocked if this does land on six, just because it has moved now from four all the way up. But, you know, I still like it, like I'm getting sucked in right now, but it's like it's, it's six. I could easily see this getting to seven just because the Rams do feel like a better team and we have a letdown for this Cardinals team.
- [47:21]
Jared Goff
It's going to six and a half for sure. What's so funny is, you know, I make a lot of notes in our script before we do the show as I do my research on Mondays and Tuesdays and Wednesdays. You just used two lines that are exactly from the script. The more I talked, more I researched this game, I still liked it. Like the Rams running game against the cards. Bottom test 10, rush defense, bottom three in tackling. And you just said something really important that I said as well. So now we're both saying it. Only you said it first. I wrote it first. They got away with one. They got away with one against the Jets. That was a trap game. It's why we like the jets in that game. If the jets were any more competent, they would have won that game. Now they come home knowing they cannot let off the gas if they want to eliminate any playoff drama, if James Conner is injured, if he's not playing. Like, it just seems like such a good spot for this Rush game to dominate. And then I noticed this action has its own version of Spotify wrapped, you know, in the Action app. You can go in, you look at your profile and it gives you your biggest wins and losses. Most units won or lost on an individual team for the year. My most units won on an individual team, the Los Angeles Rams.
- [48:55]
Simon Hunter
How about that?
- [48:57]
Jared Goff
How about that? I already loved it before I knew that. I'm going to come back to it. Since you have a strong opinion about exec decisions and honestly, I was so off on the Bills, I would like some input. As I say, feedback is a gift. So I might just make my decision at the end. Maybe we do it together. New York jets at Buffalo. I don't want to spend too much time on this. It opened at 10, it's now at nine and a half. Maybe this is the week we should have been betting the Bills as big home face against the division folk.
- [49:27]
Simon Hunter
It could be. It's another line that, you know, pass. Yeah, I, I, I do like the Jets. It just feels like a huge number that, like we just said, as bad as they have looked, you know, maybe I'm just a sucker for Aaron Rodgers, but it's just, it's, that's an insane number for a Bills team that their defense just, you know, they have so many injuries and they just can't get stops like they. They made Drake may look like an All Pro for the first quarter. Like every guy who's hitting just felt like they were wide open when he wanted them to be. So I get it, Chad. We've been burned by the Jets. I don't want to deal with it. I'm with you. Let's pass on it.
- [50:06]
Jared Goff
Aaron Rodgers made a funny joke on McAfee saying that, you know, if he gets released by a teenager, it'll be the first time, and after 20 years, there's always room for something new. Making a joke about Woody Johnson's kids having an influence on the team and being the ones who release them after the season. Las Vegas at New Orleans before the Saints game yesterday, there's a big pro Joe Split on this game. With the public back in the Saints, the pros backing the Raiders. You've. You've liked the Raiders in certain spots this year. I would lean Raiders here just because I think they're slightly better, but that was before last night and now I'd kind of like to wait to see how the line moves and if there's any value on the Saints.
- [50:51]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I was shocked. I thought we were gonna wake up today and this line would be no Saints plus three, plus two and a half.
- [50:57]
Jared Goff
I'm shocked that it's not like I. So I'm just waiting for the public to weigh in and back the Raiders. Or maybe they just hate the Raiders so much. Nothing's going to change here. I don't know.
- [51:06]
Simon Hunter
But last night was very, like, every. Everything that could have gone wrong for the Saints did, like. I mean, they had two turnovers when they got the other side of the field towards the Green Bay. And, um. Yeah, like, I think the start of the game, what, down 14? Nothing. Because it just basically LaFleur was going for on fourth downs. Like, he just was not playing with his food in that game. He was basically going for the knockout punch in that first quarter. So, yeah, it's. It's very tempting to take that Raiders team just because, you know, as bad as the Jags have been, the Raiders looked like a complete team in that game. Like, O'Connell looked comfortable and he was pushing the ball downfield. And. And we've talked about these injuries with the Saints. Like, they just. Their whole offense is just gone. Where. On the flip side, this Raiders team, they still have arguably the best, one of the best tight ends on football and Brock Bowers, and he can make big plays and big moments for them, and that's been the key for them these last couple weeks, this Raiders team. So, yeah, it's a game I don't mind avoiding. I'm so glad we're able to bet some of these Saturday games as well in our contest, because I initially thought, oh, my God, we're either gonna have to have Tennessee or the Saints in our contest, and hopefully we can avoid both those teams. You know, we probably know we should take one of them. It's. It's very tempting, but it's just. I'm not in a rush. Like I just said, I. This is another game that I can see the number flipping just because the public coming in so heavy on this Raiders team.
- [52:30]
Jared Goff
Well, the good news is I really love the Titans, so we can talk about that, you know, but this is. This does feel like the exact spot to back the Saints. Right? And I bet every trend when we look at it on Thursday. I'll leave this in so we can talk about it on Thursday. Evan will tell us probably in his column that comes out this week, that you back the team that just got blown out in prime time by 34 points when they're going home. And so we're. If this was another year and we weren't a little bit gun shy, we'd be hammering the Saints. We wouldn't even think about it. But this third of the year, we have won 15 more games than we have. And we want to be so worried about every single game and playing so tight. Right. Indy at the New York Giants. Giants plus eight. It's moved from seven and a half to eight. I know Drew Locke had an MRI in his shoulder on Monday. Maybe too early to know who's playing quarterback. Does it even matter if we were playing a pick every game? Game, I guess I'd go with the Colts, but.
- [53:33]
Simon Hunter
Same I go Colts. I don't get why this line is not 10. This is another bizarre line they've hung where it's like this Giants team have totally given up on the season. They're just sitting guys at this point. They like, if you're a little banged up right, you're not coming back to play at this point for the Giants. And yeah, even last week, they're in that game. And then it just all fell apart like a house of cards. And it really comes down to, do you have a quarterback that can make a throw on third and six? And right now, the Giants do not seem like they have one. We're on the flip side, as much we like to shit on Anthony Richardson, you know, as the season comes along, they've, they figured out the perfect medium for him is if he's throwing the ball more than 20 times, they're probably going to lose that game. Like that's, they don't want him to be dropping back, throwing it a ton. They want him to be doing the read option, either running it downfield, taking out, taking on linebackers, or handed to Jonathan Taylor on these huge, gaping open holes. Just because these guys are having to account for Anthony Richardson. Right. These linebackers can't just suck into the middle. They always have to kind of lean towards the outside because he is happy to pull it down and take it outside. And if he gets one on one with a cornerback, he's going to win that battle every time. He's always going to be going forward. He's going against an undersized cornerback. So, yeah, this is a cold team that figured out too late. They would have been a really fun run here at the end here. Like the challenge in Houston, that would have been a really fun race. But a team that clearly has not given up, they can still make the playoffs. We expect them in a roll here against a Giants team that just has given up on the season.
- [55:00]
Jared Goff
Do we want to consider the Colts as probably seven and a half point favorites in the contest?
- [55:07]
Simon Hunter
I don't hate it. I mean, I don't hate it. Like you just said, if it's Tim Boyle, why wouldn't we? I mean, what are they, what are they going to do if it's Tim Boyle?
- [55:17]
Jared Goff
Yeah, I don't hate it. Like if we're picking every game, then that's the side I would be on.
- [55:24]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [55:25]
Jared Goff
Carolina at Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is an eight point favorite. This is an interesting number to me. So they played in week 13 and Tampa Bay was a 6 1/2 point favorite. The game went to OT. They played in week 413 in Carolina. Tampa was a 6 1/2 point favorite on the road, went to ot. The Bucks only won that game because Chuba Hubbard fumbled in field goal range. So a month later, the line is in Tampa Bay. The game is in Tampa Bay. The line is only 8. So there's two things here. Some respect being given to the Panthers for how they've played. Which means that bookmakers, ratings, I don't know, wise guys, ratings on this Panthers team have changed a little bit. Also reflects, I think, the new world order of the NFL where home field advantage is not as much. What is your rating on this game?
- [56:19]
Simon Hunter
This line makes me feel Like a sucker. Am I a sucker for 11 Carolina? Here. What. What is this number?
- [56:24]
Jared Goff
This was also on my list for executive decision. Yeah, I don't get it.
- [56:30]
Simon Hunter
I really do not get this one. I know that the Bucks, they beat up on bad teams this year, and I get that. Maybe the Bucs are saying we're overrating this Carolina team too much, but. Or maybe I'll let down after an overtime win. Right? But it's like, come on, what is this number? This. This is way too much respect for a Bucks team and too much disrespect for this Panthers team. Like, this number at six, six and a half makes more sense to me than the fact that it's cross the key number. We talk all the time, seven, seven half and eight. Like, you're getting this at plus eight right now.
- [57:05]
Jared Goff
It makes no sense. So this was also on my list for executive decision.
- [57:10]
Chad Millman
A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.
- [57:14]
Simon Hunter
Now you have your orders.
- [57:15]
Jared Goff
Execute them.
- [57:17]
Chad Millman
Executive decision.
- [57:19]
Simon Hunter
Love it. Like, this is a game I threw right away into a teaser. Like, you can get this up to 14 right now, which is just insane for this Panthers team. But I honestly thought about making the Simon says, just because I cannot see this number not coming down.
- [57:32]
Jared Goff
Like, I just see I came to my senses. I made it an exec decision because I haven't completely abandoned all of our principles. You know what I mean?
- [57:43]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [57:44]
Jared Goff
Who did you.
- [57:44]
Simon Hunter
And we do have to dig in on this one because, like, we saw last week, I know some groups that. Not that they don't. Not that they don't think this Carolina team is good, but they think they're overrated a little bit. Like, they came in heavy on the Cardinals Sunday morning. We saw that number go from four and a half to five to five and a half to. A lot of books were at six by kickoff, which blew my mind. I'm not going to lie. Me and Chad are going through our picks. I'm like, what are we missing here? Are we missing something on this Carolina Arizona game? No, they went outright. That was a good read. So another week of, I guess this Carolina team just being disrespected and the books are just saying, like, you know, not that it happened in that Dallas game, but it kind of did, right? Like, if Bryce Young has a bad game and he's uncomfortable the whole game, this Carolina team will never cover a win. Right. Their defense is just so bad. He has to be the reason they keep it close. So he's been so good to us. Like, he's just been so good to us covering like other than that Dallas game which again me and you avoided, we did not bet that game. We stayed away from because we, we just knew that, you know, once they became favorites on Carolina, like okay, it's moved too much. This is not that this is an eight point dog against a Bucs team that I know they're desperate because they're right now they're not leading their division anymore. But it's like I just don't think they're good enough to be favored by eight points. Especially against a Carolina team that is very competitive in the first time they played. Should have beat them outright.
- [59:09]
Jared Goff
Who did you tease this game with?
- [59:13]
Simon Hunter
I did. I did. The Ravens.
- [59:15]
Jared Goff
You did the Ravens. So you teased it over?
- [59:21]
Simon Hunter
I did throughout. Yeah, I did three zero. So I have a Ravens plus two. But like I, I just, I was just basically just throwing it in there because I was worried this number was going to go, it was going to move too fast. But yeah, it's. If you're looking for like Saturday teasers, obviously you know there's plenty of games this week with like we just talked about that Colts game. If I would have thought more clearly, I easily would have paired the Colts with this. Right. Get the Colts down to two. That would have been the play.
- [59:51]
Jared Goff
I like that too. Making a note, the trend is to back the Panthers here. We talked about this last week. But these teams with a winning percentage of between 50 and 59% so they're, they're good ish. Which means late in the year they're fighting for a playoff spot. They haven't proven it. They've gotten lucky. They've made some good calls. When they're facing a team in week 16, 17 or 18 below.500. The good team is only 38% against the spread in the past 20 years. Since 2022 they are 10, 19 and 1. This trend was 1 and 1 last week. Worked with Carolina and Arizona did not with the Rams and Jets, but it totally should have Carolina exact decision. Love it. Millman, Great call. You never wavered. You didn't need any help. You were spot on. But that's how we do it here on the favorites. BFF Power forever. Simon. This is good. You're going to like this. Can you name the best ticketing app in the United States?
- [60:51]
Simon Hunter
Game Time.
- [60:53]
Jared Goff
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- [62:47]
Chad Millman
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Simon Hunter
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Jared Goff
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Chad Millman
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- [66:34]
Simon Hunter
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Jared Goff
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- [67:35]
Jared Goff
What are we going to do about this Tennessee game? Open to 2 1/2 Jacksonville 2 1/2 point favorite over the Titans. It's down to one, so it's moving in the Titans direction. Like even when I'm looking at this at one, it doesn't make sense. The Titans are bad. Clearly looked horrible against the Colts is why the line was a two and a half. But their defense is serviceable. I mean the Jags are terrible. Bottom 10 or bottom 3 in every category from the superficial to the advanced. Mac Jones Even when Brian Thomas Jr. Is open for a wide open touchdown, he's under throwing him like the Jags are such a bad team. I want to bet the Titans here they're now 2 and 13 against the spread. That is a record. It's got to regress. Walk me off a ledge here. Can we not bet the Titans? Make me not do it.
- [68:27]
Simon Hunter
I would finally, after many weeks of fighting, I would finally give in and bet the Titans here just because the first time they played they would have rolled if Mason Rudolph was their quarterback. That was really all about Will Levis is why they lost the first time they played. I don't know if you remember that game, they're basically up six nothing the entire game. And then the fourth quarter they give a field goal. I think Willough's had a terrible turnover and they give up a touchdown to Mac Jones and lose 10 to 6. So like we've talked about, this is history. This team is now. Are they 2 and 13, Evan, or 2 and 12 against the spread?
- [69:00]
Jared Goff
2 and 13. It's like you're not even listening to me. I just said it.
- [69:04]
Simon Hunter
He's like, I'm reading my notes. I can't believe it. Like even, even you trying to say their defense is not that bad after they gave up 37 to Cincy, then 38 to the Colts in back to back weeks is probably one of my favorite things on this show. It's.
- [69:20]
Jared Goff
Oh God, give me a break.
- [69:22]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, Tennessee's defense is not that bad. It's just a hilarious.
- [69:25]
Jared Goff
In context. In context, you know, they're like, they're middle of the road. They're ranked 15th in just about every category. You know, I didn't work just because.
- [69:36]
Simon Hunter
Of the division they play and they have that rank. They're probably bottom 20. I mean they are horrible. You know, everything just about the same team is bad. It's scary because it's. Are we bet on a team that's simply given up? Chad, like on the season. I know they had dogging and they fought hard last week to come back, but they're just such a bad team. But we both know this is a spot. We have to bet Tennessee. We're supposed to bet them here. We're supposed to take the number. Obviously we're pissed we're not getting two and a half. Like that would have been an auto play in the contest, but still is a plus one. Plus one and a half dog. I'll take it. But yeah, it's bad. This is just such a bad team.
- [70:17]
Jared Goff
Bad team. Bad team.
- [70:19]
Simon Hunter
Bad team.
- [70:19]
Jared Goff
You know what we've won in the past? Betting bad teams as dogs. We did it this past week.
- [70:24]
Simon Hunter
I've made a good living betting bad teams.
- [70:26]
Jared Goff
Yeah, exactly. All right, well, it's on the list. Dallas at Philadelphia. It's on the list. And we're going to get our picks in by 1:00 on Saturday. Dallas at Philadelphia. So listen, I want to get your take on this. This is important. This is why people listen to this show. Dallas was at seven and a half on Sunday night and we were betting Dallas. It actually got to 8. I bet it at 8. We were betting Dallas as a hedge against Jalen hurts not playing. All of a sudden on Monday afternoon it jumped to ten and a half, came back down to nine and a half and now at nine. Dude, what is going on with this line? I haven't seen any news about Jalen Hurts. Like I have been refreshing. I've been trying to see on Twitter, wherever people are looking, I cannot find any information that guarantees or commits or confirms that he's playing.
- [71:19]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I'm sally to say I don't think we're gonna know till Friday or Saturday and the holidays obviously doesn't help because I'm sure we're not gonna get any real leaked information on Christmas or.
- [71:29]
Jared Goff
Jeff D never rests. Chef's never rests.
- [71:34]
Simon Hunter
But like I said to you, clearly someone knows something because they've come in so heavy on this Eagle side and at one point, yeah, this number was 10, 10 and a half at a couple books, which was pretty shocking to see just because I mean, say what you want about the Cowboys, but they played hard last week. And Cooper Rush, since he stepped in, he's looked like a good quarterback. Now you gave me some fo that I didn't know that he's basically the only team he struggles against is this Eagles team like in his career. It seems like they're the type of team that's giving him problems. Now you factor in the fact that the Eagles are coming off an embarrassing loss and their defense really struggled. Like they're at the end of the day. I mean, yes, they had five takeaways, but they're the reason they lost that game. Like it's. Yes, Devonte Smith dropping the ball is an ideal, but giving up that many points to a rookie quarterback, especially one that's given a ton of turnovers, it's a really bad look. And this is a huge bounce back spot for the Eagles. My fear here is just that the number is just too inflated for that to happen. Like the, the opening of the back door is always going to be there with Cooper Rush. Like this Eagles is not a team that just blows teams out. I know that you can look at the schedule. Well, they beat Pittsburgh by double digits. When you talked that nausea about that one is like Pittsburgh was basically going to cover that game no matter what. And then they had a really bad Naji Harris fumble that kind of flipped that whole game. So you basically need a little bit of luck here if you're back in this Eagles team. But you know, we both talked about it off air. Like, this does seem like a bounce back spot where the Eagles just absolutely crush this Cowboys team, if Jalen hurts is back and they use next week as a mini bye week. Right. They need this to lock up the two seed to lock up the division. Then they can take week 18 off. Everyone that, everyone's going to know that on the flip side, Cowboys had a bunch of injuries in that game against the Buccaneers.
- [73:19]
Jared Goff
Yeah.
- [73:20]
Simon Hunter
And that felt like such a hard game. Like that was just such a hard hitting game. It's not a short week. Right. Because that was a Sunday night game. But still they're going to have to travel cross country. That, that to me is another problematic spot for this Cowboys team. So yeah, I'm really interested to see what the Hertz news is. Again, not rushing to bet it, but this is under 10. Chad, maybe me and you have a conversation about putting Eagles in our contest.
- [73:42]
Jared Goff
Yep, I think that's right. Like I got the. I got the Cowboys at 8 and I'm kind of just hoping to buy back on the Eagles. I just want to see where we land, to be honest.
- [73:52]
Simon Hunter
Right.
- [73:54]
Jared Goff
I'm just making a note. I want to weigh down Hertz. Okay. Miami at Cleveland. We really wanted to love the Dolphins on Sunday night when it was six. We hesitated because of two as challenges on the road and cold weather. The initial move was down to five and a half, but then it got better up to six and a half by late Monday. I don't really have a strong opinion here. I think the Dolphins defense is better than it gets credit for and it's also possible like they may only need a touchdown to score to cover this number against the Cleveland Browns offense. But do you have an opinion on this?
- [74:34]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I love the Browns. Honestly, I would make it Simon says if I knew who the quarterback was. I have no idea who the quarterback is of Cleveland. And just like Chad, I'm like trying as best I can to figure out who the hell is going to be, you know, hitting up resources and none of it's really coming back. The info I won. Like, I just want it to be James, to be honest. I know that he's. He screws in a couple spots this year, but it's like this is the perfect Jamis matchup for him, you know, I don't know what to do with this number though. But it's six and a half. I'm betting Cleveland. I love Cleveland here and it really is all about to do with Miami and what we talk all the time, Chad. Just they're a different team when they leave Miami. Like two at home. He does what he just did Last week. Right. He's dynamic. Like, offensively, they can move the ball, they can score a lot of points. The running game, the pass game, all of it hits differently at home in that weather. This is like I already can. I already feel like I'm gonna wake up to lake effect wind and snow in Cleveland and then they're gonna show Tua all wrapped up trying to act like he's not freezing cold. And yeah, it's just a bad. It feels like a bad spot for Miami and that a great spot for Cleveland is still one more win before the end of their season. So. Yeah, again, not making it. Simon says there's one more game I really like more, but plus six and a half. If you're like me and you like Cleveland, I. I'd grab that now before we find out even who the cute quarterback is for Cleveland.
- [75:56]
Jared Goff
By the way, good call. The weather on Sunday in Cleveland is supposed to be pretty warm. It could be in the 50s around game time. It's going to be in the 40s, but it is supposed to be rainy. So it's not going to be very cold. But it will be rainy at least as of today. How does that make you feel if it's not going to be cold but it's rainy?
- [76:19]
Simon Hunter
It's just something I'll keep my eye on. Again, it's not a game I'm rushing out the bet because I have no idea the quarterback is. But that was just my first initial thought. It was just like, man, I can't believe two is getting minus six and a half on the road in Cleveland in late December.
- [76:35]
Jared Goff
Green Bay at Minnesota. So I, I watched this, I said the other day, we talked about this on Sunday night. And I was kind of leaning Green Bay.
- [76:46]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [76:46]
Jared Goff
And. And I was trying to. And you asked me why and I. I've been trying to figure out why. And then I watched the packers last night and I realized why I like them so much more than Minnesota. It's not a coaching edge. I do think I take Leflore over O'Connell in. In an alley brawl. I think. You know, but I think it's about Josh Jacobs first and Jordan Love second. I think the packers primary strategy is be physical, run the ball, don't make mistakes. And Minnesota's truly dynamic and explosive. I don't think they have the kind of personnel for that offensive game. And I think every week where living on the edge with Sam Darnold and those outs that he's throwing and someone jumping in front of those, he's got Magical receivers who are making great catches deep down the field like like Green Bay packers second most units won this year in my action wrapped. I feel like on on Sunday you liked Minnesota and we're trying to talk me off Green Bay. So I feel like you might think differently here.
- [77:59]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, still I'm still in Minnesota just because of what they've done in one square games this year. And this is clearly under a field goal. Now it's under one and a half and now it's just minus one. A lot of books for Minnesota and I think it's warranted. Like you just said, Green Bay look like the more complete team. Even coming to the season, we all thought of them as a more complete team. I mean I can't tell me how many future bets this Viking team are going to ruin if they get the two seed or the one seed in this division. Because so many people are either hammering Green Bay or Hammer in Detroit to win this division. So yeah, this is a game that's going to decide a lot of money in the future market. And you know, early in the year we took Green Bay against Minnesota, I believe they were minus two and a half or whatever it was at home against this Vikings team. And we, we basically got. God, it was Jordan Love came back off his injury. I think he threw two or three picks in the game. Just did not look right and that, you know, it took him a while to get right. But it also speaks to just this team in Minnesota that if it's close, Chad, they win. I mean they obviously lost that Detroit game, you know, 31, 29 I believe, which was a crazy close game. Came down to last possession, we all know the story. And then they got blown out by the rams. They lost 30 to 20 the following week. Since then they have not lost. Right. So obviously they're a team that just like the Eagles were due for a loss, just like Detroit was eventually due for a loss, Vikings are clearly due for a loss. But they've just had this one score magic that it just keeps bouncing their way like I mean you know that, that Bears game, the Bears probably should have stole that game and won. And over time they had the opportunity to do it. You know, Sam Darnold drives whatever that was 70 yards downfield from his own, like 5 or 10 to get them in field goal range. And he just time and time again stepped up Arizona another game they should have lost at home. He came back in that fourth quarter, Sam Darnold, and beat Arizona 23, 22. So that's. That's my hesitation, brother. It's just like I agree everything you've said. Green Bay, I have them graded higher, I have them power rated higher. I have them as a favorite in this game. So again, the number right now is better towards Green Bay. I just don't think, I don't think the computers can comprehend what this Vikings team is, which is just a team that if you give them the smallest inch of life, if Sam Darnold has the ball now with two minutes to go and he just needs a field goal to take the lead. It's crazy to say but I have to have confidence now that he's going to do it because he's done it so many times this season. He just keeps having these game winning drives at the end of game. So yeah, laws of averages, Chad. And everything you just said is so true about Green Bay, but I just can't get there. I'm just, I can't believe I'm saying this regular season I'm scared of the Vikings. But yeah, as an Eagles fan, I am praying that I get to play the Minnesota Vikings in the playoffs.
- [80:44]
Jared Goff
I am fascinated by your logic here. It feels so sort of the antithesis, right? Like play the number, play the team that you think is better. This is a counting on something ethereal and unquantifiable over playing the basic math that is in front of us.
- [81:05]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's definitely a game of throwing the math out on just because it's what the Vikings are doing just makes, makes no sense. We've never like, we just talked about like the list he's on with the quarterbacks who have won whatever it was 13 games their first year with their team. It's McNair and Peyton Manning. Like these are two hall of Fame MVP quarterbacks and now it's Sam Darnold. It's just, it's crazy what he's done this season. Him and Kevin O'Connell. It's just an incredible, incredible run. They're on.
- [81:31]
Jared Goff
We have to, we might have to make Minnesota Green Bay. Scooter let Atlanta at Washington. Washington is now a four point favorite. This one has come down a bit since Sunday. I don't actually mind. Like I think I'd want to bet Washington. So I'm glad the number's coming down.
- [81:49]
Simon Hunter
Simon says take Atlanta Falcons. Wow. The world. Yeah, I'm in. I broke down, I went back, watched the Pennix tape and he was great. Yes it is. He was day from him, from Kirk Cousins. The way that offense can run now, the fact that these Safeties can't come down. Like it's going to open up so much for Robinson. And we just saw it. This Washington defense, Chad, they're not that good. Like, they were. Whatever they did early in the year, the schemes they ran, it's been figured out for the most part. Right. We've kind of seen down this tail end here. I mean, even your guy, Caleb Williams tore them up for the most part. Like, he had those two big drives at the end of the game. Because as the games go along, it seems like Washington's defense just isn't as good as, you know, we all thought they were early in the year. Just because they're in the year, they were really good. Like, Dan Quinn had those guys playing at a really high level. You know, they basically almost just gave up a back door to Spencer Rattler. Like, after watching that Saints game last night, it was like, I can't believe you almost just upset and beat them, you know, got smoked by Dallas a couple of weeks ago in Cooper Rush. It's just I don't think they're a good enough defense to be catching more than three points against an offense that can't move the ball in a team that's leading their division right now in Atlanta. Now, we talked about it Sunday night. Like, my hesitation was, this is Michael Pennock, second start now. He's going to be on the road in a primetime game. That's a lot to put on a rookie shoulder in this exact spot. But he seems like a cool dude that's like, doesn't get phased by this. I was watching another interview of him from what he played at Washington, I believe. And yeah, it was basically him in the college playoffs talking and like, you know, just the fact that they never been there before and the pressures he's feeling and it just seems so cool, kind of collective. And I was just like, he's got a little bit that Joe Burrow to him that, like, he doesn't seem like he's gonna get flustered by this big moment and that he's ready to meet this moment. And going back and watch the tape, I couldn't believe how good he was and command he was in the pocket. I mean, obviously that one pick, Kyle Pitts, kind of left him out there to dry. He had like a. Kyle, Pittsburgh's got a bad juggle at the.
- [83:58]
Jared Goff
Yeah, that was his fault.
- [84:00]
Simon Hunter
No, Right. And you know, Pro Football Focus had him graded really high last week after that performance. So it's like the numbers back it up. He backs up the eye Test. It's really all about the letdown from this Washington team. Like that, that win they just had. How do you not come down from it the following week like that? That to me was just so insane. That comeback win against the Eagles where they definitely got away with them there in no world should they have won that with five turnovers. Like the only other team that we've done that is Detroit. Right. Detroit did that against Houston early in the year with a late, late second field goal to steal it. So I'm pissed the numbers moved down so much. I was really hoping it was four and a half for Simon says, but I still like the four just because I see the same thing. Last week I thought Washington was going to get down to three against Philly. I think the same thing with Atlanta. I think Atlanta is going to get down to three, three and a half in this matchup. So grab the four while you can get that key number.
- [84:55]
Jared Goff
You know, you call Caleb Williams my guy and I, I love him dearly and I want him to be brilliant and I think he will be one day. Michael Penix is also my guy because Michael Penix was brilliant at my alma mater, Indiana University.
- [85:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [85:13]
Jared Goff
During the COVID years and if not for the injuries and then I became an avid, avid fan when he was at Washington. I love watching the guy throw. Like, you know, I watched a lot of that Atlanta Giants game mainly because I wanted to watch Michael Penix because I think he's so good throwing the ball. He's so accurate, he's so comfortable, he's so smooth. I agree with your take on his presence and I do think, look, you play in big games in college and he's old. He's not a 20 year old kid like Anthony Richardson coming in who's an athletic freak but hasn't had the exposure to high pressure situations. He's played in massive games. Obviously the NFL prime time late in the season playoffs online is different. But when you're 22, 23 and you're leading your team to an undefeated season or near undefeated season and then you're playing Michigan for a national title or you've got to beat Oregon twice to get into the national title game and get in the playoffs. Like though if you're at Indiana and you're playing at Northwestern, that's scary. So I'm kidding about the last one. Simon. Okay, so he's played in spots and he's old already. All these guys are so freaking old. So.
- [86:32]
Simon Hunter
And not to punch down the other sports, but this, this game to me sums up why the NFL is king and just the best sport by far. That it doesn't need to do anything to self promote because of this exact game of. You have a rookie quarterback in Jane Daniels now, you know, bringing this Washington team back from hell. To them thinking they're gonna have 15 years of greatness playing against an Atlanta team, that same thing. They've been looking for a quarterback for their lifetime. Now these both these guys are on a Sunday night primetime game. Two rookies and they're both deciding their playoff fate. It's like the mlb, the NHL. Yeah. They literally could never even dream up this exact scenario. So it's just to me as a fan of just football, it's like this is the best. Like these two young guys trying to save these two franchises. I've just been sputtering these last couple years. I just love this matchup so much.
- [87:20]
Jared Goff
I'm with you, man. You know what? You've turned me around. I didn't have a strong opinion. I leaned Washington.
- [87:24]
Simon Hunter
I got where you're coming from. Washington though. Just because it is Pennocks on the road as a rookie. Like this is.
- [87:29]
Jared Goff
I'm all in Detroit at San Francisco plus three and a half. The Niners in the action wrapped my third. Most units won after the Rams and the Packers. Detroit Lions, most units lost. San Francisco 49ers consistently overvalued them. This past season and this past year of 2024, I said I might just.
- [88:01]
Simon Hunter
Spent from the playoff run where you just kept backing them and they lost every week. And then luckily you got off on the super bowl though.
- [88:06]
Jared Goff
I did. I did. I'm looking for reasons to not date Detroit and I'm not sure I can find any Detroit.
- [88:17]
Simon Hunter
This is another game that comes down to playoff seating. Right. If Minnesota loses to Green Bay. Because remember, we were like, what the fuck is this line? I can't believe this line. Still cannot believe this line. It is bizarre what this line is still like. I don't care if Detroit has injuries like this 49ers team just can't move the ball and score. They can't finish drives. It's been a problem.
- [88:41]
Jared Goff
Their offensive line is terrible. The running backs are not very good right now.
- [88:45]
Simon Hunter
They're down to their fourth back.
- [88:46]
Jared Goff
Yeah.
- [88:47]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. So this line to me is just the books hedging that what we just talked about. Minnesota can lose to Green Bay. And then I think it makes it so that this, that game doesn't matter next week. Because it's just. I don't really understand this line at all. Detroit don't. I mean, if, if the Vikings lose and they win this game, Detroit isn't that. Doesn't that just lock up them to be the one seed again? I don't really know the whole playoff seating how it works.
- [89:13]
Jared Goff
I think it, I think so. Wait there. No. Cause they'd have to win one more game because they've lost two games. The Eagles have lost three games. The Vikings will have lost three games. So they have to win at least one more game to win the tiebreakers against those teams. But then they'd still have to beat Detroit.
- [89:35]
Simon Hunter
The only tiebreaker that matters is Vikings. That's the only thing.
- [89:39]
Jared Goff
If they, if Minnesota loses, then it's done. Because Minnesota will have lost four games. They only have lost two games. If they, they still have to win one more because the last Minnesota, Minnesota.
- [89:54]
Simon Hunter
Is only at two losses.
- [89:59]
Jared Goff
Okay, that's what I mean.
- [90:01]
Simon Hunter
So like they need to. I don't know what the books are doing this line. I wanted to put my life savings right now on this Detroit team because that's what it just feels like they're going to kill this team and destroy them. And it's a bad number. But the books are trying to tell us something here. Making this three and a half another prime time game. I don't know if they're just giving away money here, but it feels like that. Like this number, Timmy, should be six. It's three and a half tons of value right now on this Detroit side. But like we just said, I have to look more into the playoff, whole schedule. And if this game matters to Detroit or if it's just like, well, this game doesn't even matter. We just need to be Minnesota next week. That's the game that matters. This game is irrelevant whether Minnesota wins or loses. So very interesting that this number is three and a half. Just, you know, if, if, if the 49ers were semi healthy, I would make this three and a half. If they had McCaffrey this season, I, and, and you know, they weren't so terribly banged up, this would make more sense. But this is a team that's had a year from hell. We've talked about this 49ers team. Everything that's gone wrong has gone wrong. And Purdy's regressed in a bunch of different ways. And you know, there's just, just even that game against Miami, like they're in that game and they just fall apart in that second half. And that's been their M.O. all season. Like them giving up that walk off rushing touchdown to Miami has just been what's plagued them all season. They've just been terrible closing games out. So, yeah, this, this line. I circled this one and I circled that Chargers game of the two fishiest lines of the week.
- [91:30]
Jared Goff
All right, I like that we're bookending it. Chargers and Lions reek of fishiness. It's a holiday season, you know. What is that? Seven Fishes? Is that a big Christmas thing?
- [91:46]
Simon Hunter
I'm doing some fishes tonight. Going to my Italian cousin's party.
- [91:50]
Jared Goff
What do you think you're gonna get?
- [91:52]
Simon Hunter
What kind of fish? Yeah, I don't know. I always go for the cod, though. I'm a cod guy, so I immediately go for cod.
- [91:59]
Jared Goff
Yeah, fantastic. I know it from the Bear. One of the best episodes of the Bear ever is the Seven Fishes episode. All right, well, we got a pretty good list to look at on Thursday. We will be back on Thursday. We want to make sure everyone has a very happy and healthy Christmas reminder. If you are participating in the Favorites Pick Them contest this week, your picks must be in by 1pm on Saturday, not Sunday. All Saturday games are in the contest. Everybody must make picks by 1pm on Saturday, whether you are picking Saturday games or not. The new deadline is Saturday for this week, so we can get the Saturday games in. Give people more options. Saturday, 1pm As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5, sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10, place a bet for $5, get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions, restrictions apply. We'll be back like I said, on Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page, 11am Eastern. We'll narrow it down with our Beck Best bets for week 17. We'll get more answers on the fishiness of the Chargers and the Lions. So much more. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate, Review, subscribe, leave us. 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [93:46]
Chad Millman
Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [93:56]
Jared Goff
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Simon Hunter
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Jared Goff
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Chad Millman
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- [94:59]
Simon Hunter
Whether you're ordering wings for the game, whipping up a seven layer dip, or.
- [95:03]
Jared Goff
Ordering pizza, there's something about football that.
- [95:05]
Simon Hunter
Makes you want to eat.
- [95:07]
Chad Millman
And this football season, Uber Eats has the best deals on game day food no matter what you're craving, from two for one Pizza. To buy one get one Wings. Uber Eats will be dropping new deals.
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Jared Goff
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Chad Millman
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- [95:22]
Simon Hunter
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- [95:27]
Jared Goff
Hey there, it's Scott Patterson from I Am All In Again Podcast Life Short Talk Fast Stream Gilmore Girls on Hulu that's right, grab your coffee and get cozy because all seven seasons of Gilmore Girls are now on Hulu Stream. All the witty, banner, heartwarming moments and awkward Friday night dinners with Lorelei, Rory and the eclectic mix of characters. Whether you're rewatching or going Gilmore for the first time, Hulu has you covered. It's a show. It's a lifestyle. It's now streaming on Hulu. Dear Toyota, I need a word with you about your Crown family. Suddenly I love traffic. Rush hour is my happy place. In the comfort of my crown, I feel on top of the world. This is strange though, right? The captivating Toyota Crown Family Toyota, let's go places.