The Favorites - NFL Week 18 Betting Preview

Summary

Summary of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd" – Episode: The Favorites - NFL Week 18 Betting Preview

Release Date: December 31, 2024

In this comprehensive episode of "The Favorites," hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter navigate the tumultuous landscape of NFL betting in Week 18, offering in-depth analyses, sharing insights from the season, and presenting their expert picks for the final week. Despite an unconventional season where traditional betting strategies faltered, Chad and Simon provide valuable perspectives to help bettors make informed decisions.

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1. Reflecting on an Unusual Betting Season

The episode opens with Chad Millman expressing frustration over the inconsistent performance of favorites this season. Traditionally reliable, favorites have not been delivering expected returns, leaving bettors questioning their strategies.

Chad Millman [04:11]: "This has not been the year for us. Situations that have gone our way for years have completely flipped."

Simon Hunter echoes this sentiment, highlighting the unpredictability and the challenges faced by both public and professional bettors.

Simon Hunter [04:43]: "And it's, it's sickening... the public got really fat over Christmas break and the books usually slaughter them Sunday night. They didn't."

Key Statistics Presented:

• Favorites: Achieved a 72% straight-up win rate this year, the highest since 2005.
• Underdogs: Experienced the least profitable money line season since 2005.
• Spread Bets: Teams with less than 30% of betting tickets cover the spread 60% of the time after scoring single digits.

These statistics, provided by Evan Abrams, underscore the volatility and the departure from historical betting trends.

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2. Detailed Game Analyses and Betting Picks

Chad and Simon delve into specific Week 18 matchups, dissecting each game's nuances to present their betting recommendations.

a. Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Line: Baltimore favored by 17½ points.

Chad emphasizes Baltimore's motivation to secure a playoff spot, while Simon remains cautious due to previous betting losses.

Chad Millman [12:37]: "Do you have strong thoughts on the 17 and a half right now?"

Simon Hunter [12:44]: "I won't do it because we've been getting burned."

b. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• Line: Pittsburgh favored by 1½ points.

They discuss the Steelers' potential to rest starters, affecting the game's outcome. Simon favors Cincinnati, citing Joe Burrow's performance.

Simon Hunter [19:17]: "I honestly love this one for Cincy because it just feels like this is the game since he wins and then, you know, it doesn't matter."

c. Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

• Line: Patriots as 3-point underdogs at home.

Simon critiques the Patriots' management and quarterback situation, expressing skepticism about their future.

Simon Hunter [20:36]: "I have zero faith in their GM or head coach right now."

d. Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

• Line: Tennessee favored by 1 point.

Chad and Simon analyze Tennessee's resilience despite a challenging season, deciding to back them.

Simon Hunter [26:06]: "They've been trying and being competitive in these games."

e. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

• Line: Jacksonville significant underdogs.

Highlighting the Colts' quarterback struggles, both hosts lean towards supporting Jacksonville.

Simon Hunter [35:55]: "I just love this Jags team."

f. Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

• Line: Washington favored by 4 points.

They see value in Washington securing a playoff berth, despite the team's overall poor season.

Simon Hunter [37:52]: "I don't hate the Jets... I just hate the Dolphins."

g. New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Line: Saints initially favored by 14½ points, now 13½.

Concerned about the Saints' offensive capabilities, they favor the Buccaneers to cover the spread.

Simon Hunter [40:15]: "It's the Saints are a JV team."

h. Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• Line: Falcons favored by 8½ points.

Amid personal frustrations with the Falcons' performance, Simon supports the Panthers for an upset.

Simon Hunter [44:56]: "I've been crying... I just love this Panthers team."

i. Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

• Line: Packers initially at 10 points, moving up to 9½.

Chad opts to back the Bears, leveraging their poor road performance history and Packers' defensive lapses.

Chad Millman [48:19]: "The Bears have a winning percentage of less than 25%... So, that is the Packers, the team in this, the bad team in this scenario covers 59% of the time."

j. Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

• Line: Vikings favored by 2½ points.

Despite emotional ties to the Lions, they support the Vikings due to Detroit's defensive shortcomings.

Simon Hunter [73:47]: "This is probably my favorite team to watch. Every game exciting."

k. Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

• Line: Seahawks favored by up to 4 points.

Both hosts agree on backing Seattle, considering the Rams' likely rest of starters and Seahawks' defensive strengths.

Simon Hunter [57:29]: "I like Seattle in the spot. Especially the fact that we're getting against a Rams team that [is] top heavy."

l. Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

• Line: Jets as 12-point underdogs.

Expressing disdain for the Jets, both decide to pass on betting this game.

Simon Hunter [58:36]: "I'm a sucker for these Week 18 games... I hate the Jets at this point."

m. San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

• Line: Cardinals at 3 points, moving to 4 points.

Due to Brock Purdy's questionable health and inconsistent performance, they remain cautious but lean towards the 49ers.

n. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

• Line: Chiefs favored by 10 points.

Critiquing the inflated line, they doubt the Chiefs' offensive line and Carson Wentz's effectiveness, opting to bet against the Chiefs.

Simon Hunter [66:53]: "That is an insane sad seven zero. That's crazy."

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3. Contest and Listener Engagement

Chad and Simon announce their ongoing $100,000 pro football pick contest, congratulating current leaders and motivating listeners to participate. They highlight weekly winners and encourage audience engagement through the contest.

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4. Final Picks and Executive Decision

Concluding the episode, Chad makes an executive decision to back the Seattle Seahawks over the Los Angeles Rams, emphasizing the Rams' likely exhaustion and Seahawks' defensive capabilities.

Chad Millman [54:43]: "I'm going with a road favorite. The Seattle Seahawks -3 against the Los Angeles Rams."

Simon supports this decision, reinforcing their confidence in Seattle's performance.

Simon Hunter [56:29]: "I like Seattle in the spot. Especially the fact that we're getting against a Rams team that [is] top heavy."

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Notable Quotes:

• Chad Millman [04:11]: "This has not been the year for us. Situations that have gone our way for years have completely flipped."

• Simon Hunter [04:43]: "And it's, it's sickening... the public got really fat over Christmas break and the books usually slaughter them Sunday night. They didn't."

• Chad Millman [12:37]: "Do you have strong thoughts on the 17 and a half right now?"

• Simon Hunter [12:44]: "I won't do it because we've been getting burned."

• Simon Hunter [35:55]: "I just love this Jags team."

• Simon Hunter [73:47]: "This is probably my favorite team to watch. Every game exciting."

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Conclusion

In "The Favorites - NFL Week 18 Betting Preview," Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide a thorough examination of the final week's NFL games, blending statistical analysis with strategic betting insights. Despite a challenging season where traditional betting strategies underperformed, their expert commentary aims to guide listeners through the complexities of Week 18, offering informed picks and encouraging responsible betting practices.

Note: Advertisements, promos, and non-content segments have been omitted to focus solely on the informative aspects of the episode.

Transcript

[Chad Millman]

Foreign. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday week 18 episode. We will break down the entire slate of NFL games. We'll discuss our exec decision. Our Simon says we'll start to narrow down the options for our five faves to put into the last week of the Favorites podcast. $100,000 pro football pick them contest. We went two and three this past week. Bit of a theme this year. Live from our Tommy John home studios, I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional better Simon Hunter. Simon, I want to be the very first to officially wish you and our audience and Matt Mitchell and Gifford and Evan, happy, happy new year. It's December 31st, the end of 2024. We're going to ring in 2025. How you doing, buddy? Hello, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Happy New Year, Chad. Yeah, I'm going to try to see if I can give up my favorite thing in the world for a month after the New Year's and that's chocolate. So I'm going hard today on chocolate. People are going out, getting drunk, going partying. Me, just eating tons and tons of chocolate.

[Chad Millman]

What kind? What are you eating?

[Simon Hunter]

I get a ton of chocolate from England for Christmas, so I go to town on that.

[Chad Millman]

Chocolate with nougat. Chocolate with nuts.

[Simon Hunter]

Now, you know me, I'm a milk chocolate guy with caramel. That's, that's my go to salted.

[Chad Millman]

Do you put any salt? Is it salted?

[Simon Hunter]

It's salted a little bit. I don't overdo it. I mean that, those chocolate pretzels I send you, those are the, that's the salted perfect amount of chocolate. So, yeah, those should be at your doorstep any day.

[Chad Millman]

You love those and you love giving those. Like you're so excited to give those and you like to tell me how to eat them. Like I gotta let it all melt in my mouth. I can't just chew them.

[Simon Hunter]

You gotta appreciate them.

[Chad Millman]

Specific we with your instructions on the gift giving for Hanukkah. My younger son knows me so well. He got me a cookbook. A thousand ways to cook nuts in your house.

[Simon Hunter]

Swear to God, I wish you'd opened up and it would just been a joke of these nuts that have been great.

[Chad Millman]

I get that a lot here too. Listen, we joked on Sunday night about how it's been an off year for us. If you want to, if you're a Contrarian better if you're fading the public, if you like to bet home dogs, if you're looking for places where you think the bookmakers are leaning into what they expect to be group think from the public and shading lines, shading favorites and in tricky trap spots. This has not been the year for you. It has not been the year for us. Situations that have gone our way and betters ways for years have completely flipped. So much so that when we had the Broncos at +3 and a half on Saturday afternoon and lost on a late overtime touchdown after both coaches had mismanaged the clock and the Bengals kicker hit the upright on a 33 yard field goal to win the game and give us the COVID it didn't even seem like it was a fluke. And you know what, Simon? It wasn't. Because on Sunday night we lost another game in which we had the dog playing plus three and a half after a coach mismanaged the clock and a missed field goal to give us the COVID went awry and a touchdown in OT was scored. I, I, like, I didn't even, I didn't even watch it. I don't know about you. I went to bed. Then, of course, our two wins were bookended. The Chargers on the road and the Lions on the road. So you know that that's the perfect example of the kind of year it's been, right?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And it's, it's sickening. As someone who, like you just said, has been doing this for almost half my life at this point, and you know, that Sunday game historically is an easy, easy winner on that Atlanta team. Okay, the favorites at that point, I believe were what, 12 and 3 or 11 and 3, whatever the number was. And the public got really fat over Christmas break and the books usually slaughter them Sunday night. They didn't. Okay, that's fine by me. Me and you. I thought our bet on Detroit was absolutely dead. That that bet never ever wins the Monday night game after the public just has a weekend like they did. Favorites are whatever at that point, they're 15 and one straight up or 14 and one straight up heading to that game. And you know, guys I respect, I get a call on Sunday and basically there's some guys I'm convinced are time travelers because they just never bet. When they do bet, it's a winner. They came in heavy on the 49ers. Like, as soon as that happened, I'm like, okay, me and Chad are going one and four. That's a dead bet. You know, Brock pretty comes out, is Just cruising. They're putting up 21. We're again, this just an insane game and they lost and they didn't cover. Like the kicker missed a kick. Like all these things happen. Pie throws a pick and they get a walk off touchdown or whatever it was. And it's just been brutal. Like someone that's done this a long time. I've never, never experienced anything like this. We're betting dumb, bad lines and that's the only thing winning for us right now. Like that Detroit bet. Yeah, we basically bet it because we were just like, Detroit's better. They close out games, they play hard, the 49ers suck. They're going to choke that game away. And they somehow did. And it just is never this easy. So it's been again, I can't wait for the season to be over because this is just such a freak year. And yeah, guys are, you know, guys bragging about hitting 60% this season. It's like you, I'm sure this is the one of every 10 years that they win big because this is just the most flukiest random year ever. Betting on favorites.

[Chad Millman]

Well, let me give you some stats from Evan Abrams to back that up. Favorites have now gone 72% straight up this year. That's the most profitable season since 2005. 79% straight up since week 13. The least profitable season for underdogs on the money line since 2005. Teams getting at least 66% of the spread bets. We talk about the public all the time when we see and we track in the action app the percentage of bets on one side that is the public. That is an indication that you usually want to fade it this season. 59% against the spread. Those teams are 73% on the money line. And 38 and 8. 36 and 8. 82% since week 13. Straight up home underdogs. Another bet we love to play. It's been automatic for years. The wise guys know it, the professionals know it. Home underdogs, there's always value there because that means the team they're playing is usually better in the eyes of the public. And it gets shaded in their direction this year. 43% against the spread. Least profitable season since 2005. Here's one for you. Favorites of six or more, 29 and one straight up since week 13. The only loss the Giants over the Colts this past weekend. Favorites are also 69% since week 15. 69%. We see it. Our only wins the past few weeks have been on favorites. Yeah, you know the playoffs are just around the corner. So the question is going to be, and we love the playoffs, the question is going to be, are we spooked by what's been happening? Are we going to revert to the patterns that we've played our entire lives? Do we think things will go back to normal when there are two good teams playing? Like I do think a big part of the issue this year has been a real decrease in quality play from quarterbacks, an increase in variance, high variance plays from coaches going for it for two points going forward and fourth downs, and the fact that kickoffs have given teams an extra 10 yards and good teams can take advantage of that. You know we're going to talk about that. But first, you and I may be far, far, far out of it in the contest. We are pros. We don't rest on the last week of the season, do we?

[Simon Hunter]

No. We have to make picks.

[Chad Millman]

Let's go to week 18. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code Favorites Deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. All right, last notice. It's our final week of the season for the favorites $100,000 pro football pick them contest. $40,000 first place prize will soon be climbed. Tens of thousands more paid out to the entire top 10. First place is currently D. Windenberg with 61 points 2 above everybody else. Can De Winsenberg stay the course and claim the 40k extremely exciting race to the finish line. Good luck to all of this year's participants. Matt Mitchell quickly in the chat. Are we doing Saturday games this week? And if so, do people have to get it in by 1pm? Sorry if this is later in the script and I'd have missed it, but Sunday only. Sunday only this week. All right, Sunday only games this week. Just so people know. Sunday only. Here's how I want to lay this out. This show for listeners. Week 18 is so weird because of playoff scenarios, draft scenarios. People trying to figure it out by Googling playoff scenario 75 times what I want for this episode. This is your one stop shop. I wanted to provide a few things all in one place for sports fans. We are nothing if not utility driven. I want this to be what we know to be the most up to date information about which teams are playing starters and who isn't. I've been tracking that. We've all been tracking that. Playoff scenarios impacting their decisions. So I want people to understand which teams are playing for something or nothing. Draft orders and those scenarios impacting team decisions. And then we'll give our standard betting advice based on all of the above. We are not ignoring Saturday games. Cleveland at Baltimore. Baltimore is a 17 and a half point favorite.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, you want me to run through the list real quick, Chad, and break down all the scenarios for everyone?

[Chad Millman]

No, no, I'm going to go through them with each game so people can have it as we get to the game. They can include that in context for how we are thinking about it from a betting point of view. That way they don't have to remember, all right, let me. I don't want to make people go back be like, all right, what was the scenario here? We'll give it to him in context. So Cleveland, Baltimore. Baltimore is a 17 and a half point favorite. Cleveland right now has the third pick. They can they, they're basically guaranteed a top five pick. I don't think that's going to impact the play here. The Ravens a loss would give Pittsburgh the AFC North. If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati, Baltimore would then go to the five seed and have a road game against the Texans in round one. So I say this, they will play their best players because they need to win this game. They don't want to go on the road. They want to win the division and they want to be the three seed. That's my take on the game and the scenario. Do you have strong thoughts on the 17 and a half right now?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I would love to take Cleveland, but I won't do it. Won't do it, Chad. Ain't gonna do it.

[Chad Millman]

Won't do it because we've been getting burned because historian Thompson Robinson, who scored nine points are we waiting for in two weeks are waiting for Jamis now.

[Simon Hunter]

We've been burned and even if there is two points of value on this, I don't trust the books right now. The books have just been laying bad, giving out bad numbers and you know, I don't know what it is. Look, we just talked about it. Maybe it is because every team started at the 30 and if you literally get one first down, all of a sudden you're at the 40, 45 yard line and that, that's a big deal rather than you being at the 25, 30 yard line. So you're right. That's. That's a big deal. It's been huge for the favorites. And this is pretty simple. The Ravens, they, they win this, they win the division. And on the flip side, if they win this, like we just talked about, Steelers, they play later that day, they might not even play their starters because there's nothing to play for at that point. And they're kind of locked in. So yeah, they want, they need our money. Clearly. Chad, it's 17 and a half. They need our money. This is all Raven's money. From the minute it opened, it was all Raven's money. So I'm in no rush. It's a great number. Obviously, 17 and a half, that's a huge key number. But I just, I won't do it right now.

[Chad Millman]

Teams getting less than 30% of the betting tickets, so teams that the public has no interest in cover the spread about 60% of the time if they, if they're off a game in which they scored single digits. Amazingly, there are several teams that qualify for this system this week. I think it's a tricky one because I think there's so many bad teams and so much bad quarterback play. There's a real disparity in the league right now. The league has lived on parody for so many years. I don't think there is parody in this league right now. I don't know if you're crazy.

[Simon Hunter]

NFC is the most parody it's ever been.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, but the bad are so bad. I don't mean like individual divisions. We can cherry pick the teams, but some of these bad teams are just so bad. The quarterback play is so bad. You cannot count on them to do the fluky thing, to do the right things to, to put themselves in a position to win. You like, we've seen it week in and week out. There's some really bad football teams out there and the Browns have zero quarterback play.

[Simon Hunter]

There is, but I told you, we're in the golden age of quarterbacks. You're spoiled. Like when Baker Mayfield's thrown for five touchdowns and Sam Darnold is thrown for 350 yards and three touchdowns and playing for the one seed. You're spoiled. You sound spoiled. It's like, how many good quarterbacks do you want, Chad? On a good. I mean, if I go back and look at the mid 2000s. If we had four or five good quarterbacks, we were living the dream. It was like, oh, my God, we have Rogers, Peyton Manning, Brady, Philip Rivers. Like, these guys are all great quarterbacks now. It's. There's just so much good QB play that, yes, when you see bad quarterbacks, it really stands out. And I agree, the Browns, they don't have a legit starting quarterback on their roster. And it is interesting me, though, they have not gone back to Winston like in that game against Miami. Why not go back to Jameis? He must be really seriously hurt.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, well, you know, they listed him as having an injured shoulder and he was, I think, even inactive last week. That's one question I'm sort of looking at this week. Would they consider going back to him? Is he going to practice? You know, I want to see how that goes before we got deep into this game.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, no bet for me yet.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, no bet. Cincy and Pittsburgh. This one is. Is, you know, racked with all sorts of circumstances. Right. We leaned Cincy on Tuesday night when it was two and a half. It's moved in the opposite direction. So people are buying into the idea that what you said on Sunday night, could this be a get right game for Russell Wilson? Do you back Mike Tomlin in the rah rah spot where he's 22 and 16 straight up as an underdog versus a divisional opponent, 26, 10 and 2 against the spread as an underdog against a divisional opponent? Will know something at this point. You know, the NFL is like the wwe, right? They have set this up so it's all TV drama. The Steelers will know their circumstances. They'll know if they've got a shot to win the division or if they're going to move down. They do have some motivation. They could still move down further in the playoff seedings if they lose this game. So I don't think they're going to come out and rest starters even if the Ravens win the game.

[Simon Hunter]

That's fair to me, that would be a mistake. I. I think they should, but obviously I'm. I'm a degenerate gambler and I have money invested already in the Bengals and I love the Bengals. Yeah, it's. I guess it's a big deal if they flip seating, but at the end of the day, it's like, you know, I get it. Like, if they win, they get to play Houston. That's a big deal. Right. Like, you want to face them rather than having to face.

[Chad Millman]

You want to face, like, the Ravens.

[Simon Hunter]

Right, right, right. So no, you're right. I, I honestly love this one for Cincy because it just feels like this is the game since he wins and then, you know, it doesn't matter. They're not going to make the playoffs regardless. And just the way Joe, Joe Brosman playing, overcoming one of the worst defenses in all football, it's really impressive. Like you just said it. Like, normally we hammer this Mike Tomlin's spot, but like so much unknown. I just don't know how motivated they're going to be in this exact scenario that. Yeah, I'm still, still on Cincy. Most professionals I've talked to at this point, they like, obviously this Pittsburgh team for what we just talked about. It's. It's a nice spot for Tomlin to bounce back with an offense that, you know, they've been struggling, but, you know, we didn't really talk about it. The Ravens defense has been much better this second half of this season. Yeah, the Chiefs obviously one of the better defense in all football. We already know the Eagles have a top three defense. So going from playing three of the hardest defenses in the football now to playing one of the worst defense on football, we expect Pittsburgh to look good and be able to move the ball here. But yeah, it's another. It's. They moved it to one and a half now. I can't help it. I got a bet since he's a.

[Chad Millman]

Simon says, do you worry that it'll go back to.

[Simon Hunter]

No, but I would grab it now if you want it. Like, like we just talked about, like, we don't know the incentive of this Pittsburgh team and what they're going to do if the Brown. I mean, if the Ravens do. And I know we just said they're going to try to play it out, but that, that bye week, at this point of the season especially, you just played three games in 11 days. That's a huge deal. Like that little mini bye week they can take right here before the playoffs. That's a, That's a really big deal. So, yeah, it's, it's tough to get a read on this one.

[Chad Millman]

Buffalo at New England. New England is a three point underdog at home. It's come way down since it was posted on Sunday night. It opened at five and a half. It was within 15 minutes, it was down to one and a half. It moved back up to two and a half. Now it's a three. The Patriots have the number one pick in the NFL right now and they're in a glorious spot because they don't need to Draft a quarterback. So the optionality with that pick, you gotta want to keep it. The assumption is that Josh Allen will at least play a series to keep his starting streak alive, which apparently Matt Mitchell says is important to him. And Matt Mitchell, you know, was our Buffalo correspondent. Do we think the Pats will play Drake May? Well, they sit him to give him the best chance to win the number one pick. I don't really have a strong opinion on this game.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, pretty interesting. Bill isn't automatically locked in the two seats. So this is truly a meaningless game for them in every which way. And yeah, why would they not want to let New England beat them, right? Not not let them get the top draft pick. But I do love Patriots fans being like, oh this is great, we can use this as leverage to trade down and get more draft capable as if they can draft good players. It's like we have no I no faith. I have zero faith in their GM or head coach right now. New England. And I'm a psychopath too where it's like Drake May, he showed little flashes but nothing compared to Jaden Daniels or Bo Nix. Of like even Caleb Williams had moments where I was like, okay, this guy's a legit start in this league. Drake May to me throws a lot of 50, 50 balls that he's gotten lucky on and he can scramble. I don't know if this was a really good draft for quarterbacks. I don't think they'd be hesitant to draft a quarterback. I know that sounds crazy Patriots fans because I love Drake May, but it's like, dude, they don't work that way in the NFL. I mean Chad just talked about it. He's sick of the QB play because there's only 10 guys that are like legit. That's how hard it is. Like the odds of you drafting a legit guy is just so rare. I'm just all about the Washington. Even the Eagles did it. Like we had Carson Wentz, we took Hertz in the second round. Like I don't know. People get too attached to these quarterbacks and their egos and it's, I think they're a unique opportunity if they, if they break down. They love this draft class of quarterback and they have their 1 pick. I think they should look into it. But yeah, Travis Hunter, whoever they want to go with is that top pick. Or if they do want to trade down to get more draft capital to draft more players, sure, go for it Newman. But I, I, I easily see them could upsetting win in this game, right? Like Mitch Trubisky. Chad knows we've been through it. He's. He can be good for a quarter but we know that eventually he's going to throw a pick. So if Drake May's in this game, I think it could be competitive and I, I wouldn't hesitate to take the Plus 3. But yeah, it's another game where it's a lot of we don't know who's playing yet at this point. I haven't bet it waiting to get more info on it. The only reason I bet the 3 is just because I'm shocked they went up to 3. I thought this would be a pick them. So that just shows how bad this, this Patriots team is. They're basically a home dog to a team of backups in Buffalo.

[Chad Millman]

It's very rare that anyone in the NFL is going to not suffer from the sunk cost fallacy. Right? You've got a quarterback, you've drafted a quarterback. You want to invest in that quarterback, you want to grow that quarterback. You don't want to feel like the person who wasted the year, the pick the year before. You want to realize that roi, the very few teams have done it. The most recent one I can think of is the Cardinals had drafted Josh Rosen, top 10 and the next year drafted Kyler Murray. Right. They immediately were like, this guy sucks. We can improve our lot. No brainer. Don't worry about what we've done in the past. You don't get teams drafting quarterbacks unless you're the Bears and you draft a quarterback in the top five every three years. Nor. And that's not because they're smart enough to walk away. They're just bad enough to choose the wrong.

[Simon Hunter]

They are smart enough though. Like you're saying they're not. That was, I mean, think how crazy the fans were. They're like, no, we like Justin. We want to keep Justin. It's like, God damn. People just get too attached to these quarterbacks. They just, they love potential. And again, the Vikings and the reason I was down on them, they, they punted on their first round pick. They got Sam Jones, then they drafted, you know, jj. Like that was a big deal. And now they're in a weird spot where it's like, are they, are the Vikings going to trade JJ and just keep Sam Darnold? Like their dream for JJ McCarthy would to be what Sam Donald just did this season. Right. That's. Yeah, it's as good as it's going to get. So that's what I mean though. It's just you got to just keep firing on these quarterbacks and you just have to hit one unicorn and your franchise is set for 15 years. So it's like, I get it, Patriots fans. You're attached to Drake May even though he's done nothing. You are the worst team in football this year and you can blame your coach, you can blame your lack of talent. Is that going to change next year? I'm already seeing they're, they're rejecting Vrabel to bring back that coach for one more, one more year in May. Like they're just a terribly run organization and I think we're all starting to figure that out. That it was just really Belichick and Tom and nothing up top. It was just blatant luck by Kraft that he got this incredible quarterback in the seventh, sixth round and he got Belichick instead of going to the jets, he came there and it just, that's how football is, right? You can walk yourself into dumb luck and right now it just feels like this. They're the most dysfunctional organization and I don't know if you love it, but I love it. Like I hated that Patriots run and they're cocky, know it all fans. And now they are just the bottom of the barrel. Enjoy your number one pick, Patriots.

[Chad Millman]

Quick recap for week 17 in the Favorites 100,000 Dollar Pro Football pick them contest. Congratulations to Rodney Valentine, our week 17 first place winner. He went 5, 0, got within a yard of the tiebreaker. He takes home our thousand dollar weekly prize. As always, Matt Mitchell was selected the Producers cup award for the entry that finished dead last. Have you heard about the lonesome loser? He's a loser, but he's still keeps on trying. This week's Producers cup goes to Mm H. Who went 015, missed the tiebreaker by almost 400 yards. Mm H. Please email our [e-mail] to claim your prize. Houston and Tennessee. This one has been on a freaking roller coaster.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Texans cannot change their draft. Locked in at four, locked in at four. They're the worst. A record of the division winners. Titans currently own the number two spot in the draft. They're desperate for a quarterback. This one huge moves up and down opened at 7:35pm Sunday night with Tennessee as a one point underdog. By the time you and I, we do the show 7:30 to about 8, 8:15 by the time we were on the air midway through the show, Tennessee was a four and a half point favorite. Now it's back down to Tennessee minus one. No upside for the Texans locked in at the four. Like I said. Why is this line Simon moving so much?

[Simon Hunter]

Simon says give me Tennessee plus one. When Simon says do it, we do.

[Chad Millman]

What Simon says minus one at Bethu Svive it is.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, okay. Yeah. I don't get it. I do not get it at all. It's all public money too. Like I'm looking the action app and it's all public. Just hammering this Texan side and we kind of talk about it. Like these NFL teams, you saw it a lot, especially in that Giants locker room after that game. They do not care about draft position. Like these guys just want to win and a lot of them are playing for their jobs and playing for their futures. And say what you want about the Tennessee being terrible and them losing and not covering all these games in a row. They at least been trying and being competitive in these games. Like a lot of these games are close games. Like it's not them just getting rolled by 30, 40 points, right? It's a lot of times I'm coming back losing by a touchdown or just failing that last, that last drive. And me and you have talked a ton about this Texas team, about how bad they are mainly because of injuries, right? And they were a top heavy team coming of the year. They were stars and scrub type of team, right? And now in this game all the stars will be out. All the reasons they've been even be able to keep this thing together is going to be out for this Houston team. On the flip side, I just could see Tennessee messing up their draft position and wanting to win this game and they're desperate for a win. I mean they've gone months without a win like that. That just wears on you. And we've already talked about how it's an anomaly them against the spread, right? 2 and 14 against the spread this season.

[Chad Millman]

Worst against the spread ever.

[Simon Hunter]

Ever. And again, I know people don't give us kudos, but like we've avoided them this whole time. We literally have avoided them this whole time.

[Chad Millman]

But we deserve credit for our, for our.

[Simon Hunter]

It's been hard. Honestly though, it's been hard because every week the books are giving us a free two to three points, no joke. Like they are just begging for Tennessee money and every week it just was not coming through. And I know some pros who have just been chasing this for well over a month on this Tennessee team. So yeah, I, I, I just think Tennessee is in a good spot here playing against a bunch of backups that, you know, I don't think Houston's going to care at all about this game. On the flip side, I think Tennessee is going to care about getting this last win. Callahan, just before the end of the season, try to feel good about themselves. And we see it all the time. Teams like this that have a horrible year, nothing to play for, they kind of steal one of these games end of the year. So yeah, it makes me, obviously in a normal year it feel good knowing the public's heavy on a road favorite in Houston, but it has not been the case this season. But I still, I still like Tennessee at this number and I do think it goes up by kickoff.

[Chad Millman]

Very interesting. Finally pulling the trigger on the Tennessee Titans. I gotta tell you, I didn't see that one coming. Like, no, because I wanted to go in.

[Simon Hunter]

I've hated them.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, I want, look, you, you walked me back from that last week like I was itching to bet the Titans. You're like, no, no, no, no, you're right. We do deserve credit for not falling prey and betting the Titans all season long. Maybe no credit for betting the Panthers all season long, but we totally deserve credit for not betting the Titans when we absolutely when that number was bloated every single week. Good for us. Simon. Simon, a new year is dawning. Now is the time to make our resolutions. Choose a path to live better in 2025. For me, it's about living authentically. And to me, there's nothing more authentic than being comfortable, especially downstairs. And with a special sale for our listeners, you can share my resolution to make Tommy John a big part of my new year. With thousands of authentic five star reviews, everyone can see Tommy John will leave you comfortable, confident and able to live your life like a whole new person for the long year ahead. Simon, why will you be giving the gift to Tommy John in the year 2025?

[Simon Hunter]

Because, Chad, it's the gift that lasts.

[Chad Millman]

That's right. Right now you can shop tommyjohn.com favorites for the holidays and get 25% off your first order. Save [e-mail] favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorites yesterday, yesterday I made my younger son give me a hug. He was being mean to me and I'm like, let's just hug. There's no reason to be mean. And when we hugged, he said, wow, this shirt is so soft. Is this Tommy John? And I was wearing a quilted Tommy John pullover. We buy it, we like it. Jacksonville at Indy. Anthony Richardson missed last week. Indy's a five point favorite here with back spasms. If he is healthy. The Colts say he will play. There's no word yet on if he is healthy. Obviously, like, there's not a ton on the line here. The Jags have the fifth pick overall draft position, not likely to impact any decisions about who will play. They've got the quarterback they say they want. They've got sunk cost. They're not walking away from Trevor Lawrence. Kind of a normal handicap to me. A team that won't stop trying in the Jags versus a team that feels like culturally in house, it is in big trouble. I don't know if you've been keeping up with Pat McAfee versus the Indianapolis Colts franchise, but he's been railing on this team and now they are fighting back and they were just so bad. They had so many chances to win that game, stay in contention against the Giants. Defense could not stop Drew Locke. So are the Jags way overvalued because they've been competitive? Are the Colts undervalued after last week's games, the numbers moved down a little bit. It's Pros Joe's game for what it's worth. Tickets on the Jags, money on the Colts.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, brutal. Brutal year for the Colts. I saw the part of my take. Boys had a crazy stat about Ballard, and basically, since he's taken over, every team has won this division twice. So the Texans have won it twice, Jacksonville's won it twice, Tennessee's won it twice. They've won it zero times since he's taken over.

[Chad Millman]

Come on.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, it's pretty insane that Ursay has let this man hang around at this point.

[Chad Millman]

And everyone always talks about what a brilliant GM he is.

[Simon Hunter]

He honestly is in some aspect where, like, you know, the offensive line and some of the traffic he hit on were great, but he just obviously clearly never figured out the quarterback situation. And every year he's just been throwing darts and it's the wrong dart he just throws to the. So, yeah, another game of I want to take Jacksonville. This. They've. They've been playing, you know, with their backups, wherever you want to call it, for months. They're used to it. The Colts, any guy with the even semi injured coming out of last week, why would they play in this game? Like they're. That. How does that not just suck your soul out? You put in so much work. I mean, they're interviewing guys who've been there a long time in the locker room, and they're just like, it's the same old every season. This is how it goes. And like that that, to me, like we just talked about, that's the worst loss of the season, right? You're playing for your. Your lives to make the playoffs, and you lose to a team that literally hadn't won a home game all season, and you lose to a quarterback and Drew Lock that just looked like an all Pro against your secondary, like, tore.

[Chad Millman]

You guys up every single time they got close and had a chance. They needed one stop, one stop multiple times to, to get back in that game. If they do well, they drive down the field, they score, they're taking the lead. They could not freaking do it.

[Simon Hunter]

No. And like, again, the game was summed up perfectly. The announcer said the Colts had four drives and they had six points. Drew Locke had three drives. He had three touchdowns. Just insane to think about that, that type of thing. That's why we love betting, though. That's. You know, that was the one big dog that we just talked about. One outright. So, yeah, the Colts are just so bad. This feels like way too much respect to this team, especially at four and a half. Calling me a sucker for this Jags team. I just love the way they've been playing down the stretcher. I'll take Mac Jones, Brian Thompson Jr. At plus four and a half.

[Chad Millman]

I, I'm. I agree with you. Like, I, I kept thinking, like, we're seeing the Jags compete every single week. This was a great stat from Evan Mac Jones. With Doug Peterson, 3 and 3 against the spread, he was something like, you know, 15 and 30 against the spread with. With the Patriots. So clearly, Doug Peterson is getting something out of Mac Jones that Bill Belichick wasn't getting. But he's got swagger and he doesn't deserve it, but he's making bad throws that Brian Thomas Jr. Continues to make him look good on. Like, I don't know, like, I got.

[Simon Hunter]

A better one for you. He's got the same amount of wins this year. And whatever it is, six starts as Drake May has for the whole season. Suck on that. New England.

[Chad Millman]

Washington at Dallas. This one opened Dallas +5. And shortly after, the Commanders won on Sunday night, moved down to three. Now it's back up to four. Look, there's still playoff seating incentive for the Commanders, right? If they do. Yeah, win, they're locked in at the six seed. They get the Bucks or the Rams? They gotta travel, but they get the Bucks or the Rams. If they lose, they're the seven seed. They're playing the Eagles. I mean, that's incentive to me. Do you want to play the Eagles or Do you want to play the Bucks or the Rams? So to me, this should be a totally normal handicap.

[Simon Hunter]

And even more so, doesn't feel like this is the type of game that Washington just absolutely rolls the Cowboys, like the Cowboys, I think we realized they've had their super bowl against that Tampa team, that primetime game. And you know, as bad as I looked against the Eagles, I don't know how much better they're going to play against Washington, right. These guys all have their trips booked. They're ready to go. You know, Michael Parsons comments after the game were just madly insane. Like, it just seems like a team that's kind of lost their mind at this point. The Cowboys, Washington thinking he's nailed it, right? This is a game they really want to win because it really defines who they're going to be playing in this playoffs. And of course they want to come to Philly. Like, you don't want to say you don't want to face the same team three times, right? We all know that. So, yeah, the fact that this has moved the way it's moved just makes total sense to me. Like the pros and the public to me will be on Washington. I could see this keep going up. Like, to me, this should be six by kickoff. So the fact you can still get four and a half on Washington, I don't hate that number. I don't hate that value.

[Chad Millman]

You can get four at bet365. This is one of those stats and systems that we mentioned. Oh, play Cowboys, play the Cowboys, right? Teams getting less than 30% of the tickets cover the spread 60% of the time. If they're off a game in which they scored single digits again, it's a weird stat because it basically tells you to favor the. The worst teams, right? Yeah, we're talking. We're talking about the Cowboys. This week we saw the how big.

[Simon Hunter]

Of a deal it was to lose CD though, right?

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

Like not having CD was a big deal.

[Chad Millman]

I will say this Cooper Rush, he chucks it, man. He's willing to play. He'll throw it into the fire. He still makes some good throws. Brandon Cooks stepped in nicely and we knew the Eagles are kryptonite for Cooper Rush. His worst games as a backup have come against the Eagles. And I don't necessarily think he's going to mail it in. He's a backup quarterback who wants to do as well as he can. And I don't think Mike McCarthy is going to nail it in. Mail it in because I think he is still trying to win the games for next year. If you, if I had to bet on if he will be the coach, I would say he will be next year. Seems like the sentiment is that the tide is turning on that. So I don't. It's. To me, it's not an automatic with Washington. If it gets higher, I might just want to play the Cowboys.

[Simon Hunter]

That's fair.

[Chad Millman]

So we'll put them on the list because why not? How much worse can it get for us? New Orleans at Tampa Bay. UT's wanting to take the Saints on, on Sunday night. It's moved down half a point. This is a normal handicap to me. The Bucks need to win to get in any year. We are taking the Saints, but this is not any year. My biggest worry is that the Saints don't have any playmakers. I mean, they truly are a JV team.

[Simon Hunter]

Cam Jordan. I know, 35 year old, I agree.

[Chad Millman]

You know, I like to play this game with my kid, you know, jersey, retirement, hall of Fame, team hall of Fame, statue. Cam Jordan. Where do you think he qualifies? Like he's one of the best players defensively the Saints have ever had.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, he leads them in sacks, right?

[Chad Millman]

Pillar in the community, always a Walter Payton man of the year award nominee. Does he get a statue? Does he get his jersey retired or is he in the Saints ring of honor?

[Simon Hunter]

Gotta retire jersey if you're the Saints. He's the all time leader in sacks. Um, that's. It's just insane to think with that organization this guy is basically a D tackle that is just dominated across what, 10, 15 years. I mean, I don't know how long he's been in the league now, but.

[Chad Millman]

I think 75 years. I think he was an original member of the, the NFL.

[Simon Hunter]

Even that game last week, like they needed a couple big plays on a couple creek third downs and he felt like he was always the one that made the big play for them. Obviously it didn't matter because they're just a terrible team, but yeah, this number is crazy, Chad. At one point it was up to 14 and a half, this Saints number. So obviously professional money's come in at this point, bought it back. It's at 13 and a half now. I won't do it. I won't take it at a bad number. Get it. If it gets back up to 14, 14 and a half, I'm happy to give it out and take it again, but I'm not chasing this number after it already moved. And no one would be, say no one would be shocked if Tampa just Absolutely rolls down Tampa. That, that Bucky Irving, Baker, Mike Evans combo is just right now terrifying.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

So you just nailed it. Like the Saints have nothing offensively that can keep up with this bucking. We basically need a really, really bad Baker game, Which honestly, at 14 and a half, I feel way comfortable betting on that because it can happen. Like, we've seen it time and time again. He can turn the ball over, give short field to this Saints team, but at 13 and a half, it's like, I'm not chasing that bad number. Give me, give me a better number here. Sportsbooks.

[Chad Millman]

Baker has 15 picks. That's one behind Kirk Cousins. But he's also on pace to earn $2.5 million in incentives for individual stats. Evan has a great story up on actionnetwork.com there's five different stats that if he finishes top five in the NFC or top 10 in the league across completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, et cetera, he gets 500 grand for each one, and he's well within the range for all of them right now. So I got a feeling Baker's going to go out there and he's going to sling it, which could spell doom right, for, for the Saints.

[Simon Hunter]

I saw a crazy article, though, just about how Tom Brady left New England. Look what happened to them. He left Tampa. And they've still been able to win the division now. And they could win it again this year two times, which is just insane to think about. Like you, you lose arguably the best player in football history, one team went the way they should have, right? They completely fell apart. I've just been in despair for the last five, six years. Baker, the ultimate savior of Tampa. Like, truly incredible. This man went from being scout team D line with Carolina to now potentially back to back division winner of the South. It's. It's really remarkable what Baker's done.

[Chad Millman]

Someone needs to do this story. I'm gonna call some of my NFL writer buddies and get them on this. Just to go back to my old days with signing stories. But what exactly happened with baker and Sean McVay in Los Angeles in that last month of the season a couple years ago? Right, because he points that as being like a pivotal moment in his career where he learned so much about playing quarterback and he's been brilliant since then. And like, that was at the end of a long road of journeyman type stuff. I think that was the last stop before Tampa, if I'm not mistaken. But he says that's where he learned to play quarterback. I'd love to be in the room there. That's a great story. I got to get Wickersham on that and call up Wickersham. Have him do that. Carolina at Atlanta. Atlanta's eight and a half point favorite. Simon. It's gone up from seven and a half. I mean, we're going to do it. The Falcons have to win and the Bucks need to lose for them to get in the playoffs. Nobody's going to know what's happening in this game because they're both playing at the same time. Here's the scenario. The Bucks are crushing the Saints at halftime. The Falcons are demoralized. The Panthers find a way to cover. I don't hate it. Get to bet the Panthers one last time.

[Simon Hunter]

I was so distraught. I couldn't sleep after that Atlanta loss on Sunday night against watching. I ended up buying a flamethrower. No joke.

[Chad Millman]

No way.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. That's how much this team's affecting my life, this Atlanta team.

[Chad Millman]

What are you gonna do with the flamethrower?

[Simon Hunter]

Get rid of black ice. I, I don't wanna. I don't want to slip on any black ice. So I'm just gonna whip out the flamethrower, do the driveway off so I can walk out to my car.

[Chad Millman]

But isn't that terrible for the concrete? Doesn't it create cracks and stuff?

[Simon Hunter]

I don't think so, but it's legal as well. It's considered a farm tool in America, so God bless America. You can buy flamethrower people online if you want. It's American made.

[Chad Millman]

What, were you just on Amazon? You're like, buy me a flamethrower?

[Simon Hunter]

No, just going through all the motions. I think I was playing some more to game. I was like, why do I not own a flamethrower? I own everything else. And it was pretty simple to get a. Get a flamethrower here, Erica. I can't help myself. I'm betting Panthers at plus eight and a half. I've already bet their money line. I love this as an upset for this, this Carolina team. This is going to feel like an actual playoff game for Penix and this Atlanta team and I can just see them getting tight and no one's going to be back in this Carolina team after them just getting rolled and blown out. But we've seen the Panthers, they bounce back from those embarrassing losses. And you know, Bryce Young obviously didn't play well last week. I like him to bounce back. So, yeah, as people can tell, I just love this Panthers team, especially now that's plus eight and a half. Can't quit them one last time Chad. Give me the Panthers in 2024.

[Chad Millman]

I feel like we have to just because you got to complete the circle and you know, as smart as we've been about Tennessee, we've, we've been right her about Carolina the second half of the year. Obviously not last week.

[Simon Hunter]

That was our first loss though. We were, we were five and oh betting them. Yeah, we were on a nice streak with them. That was our first loss.

[Chad Millman]

I got, I got no issues going back to Carolina obviously I said I feel going to have to do it. I'm glad we're doing it.

[Simon Hunter]

Plus 340 on the money line. Shock the world.

[Chad Millman]

All right. Well we know they'll be in the moneyline underdog round robin and probably in the bet365 boosted parlay Chicago at Green Bay. So the packers can only move up from the seventh seed and facing the Eagles if the Commanders lose to Dallas. So they're Both playing at 1 at 1pm so we could have another scoreboard watching situation like we have with Atlanta. A couple stats because I, I can't decide if we assume this is a normal handicap or not. I haven't seen anything from the floor to indicate which way they're going to go. My sense is they're at least going to start their starters, see how the game is going and if there's no chance, maybe they pull them. So there's a couple systems that the Bears fit. The Bears have a winning percentage of less than 25%. They are a bad team in this scenario, going against a good team that since week five has been covering by more than five points per game. So that is the packers, the team in this, the bad team in this scenario covers 59% of the time plus the Bears getting less than 30% of the tickets, meaning they're getting faded by the public. They just scored single digits three points against the Seahawks at home. You know, so they cover 60% of the time in this scenario. Two systems both north of, you know, 150 close to 200, you know, games as a sample set. But I'm not back in the Bears here.

[Simon Hunter]

No. All right. I'm, I'm all in on them. I love them. I bet their money line as well for this one. I'm just.

[Chad Millman]

Jesus Christ.

[Simon Hunter]

I'm a sucker for these Week 18 games. The sense that I, I just love these dogs in these exact spots of what you just talked about. Everyone is totally out on this Bears team. The only unfortunate part was this was ten and this Number's now moved down to nine. Nine and a half of most books. I was really hoping we'd get the 10.

[Chad Millman]

It'll go back up. I guarantee it'll go back up before this game is kicking off.

[Simon Hunter]

I think you just touched on the key though is what LaFlore is going to say during the week. I think that honestly is going to dictate this line. Like if La Flor is basically tell us people like, okay, we'll pull starters in the second half or whatever. If, you know, commanders are winning big against Dallas, whatever it may be, I think there is value here to take advantage of. And I mean, I remember these teams played last time. I know that feels like a lifetime ago because of the coaching change and how bad the Bears have been down the stretch here. But you know the Bears, they should have beat them. They should have upset them. And it seems like this Bears team actually matches up pretty well against this Green Bay team, so.

[Chad Millman]

No, they don't. No, they don't. The Bears do not know how to play defense.

[Simon Hunter]

They just held Seattle, Seattle to 6.

[Chad Millman]

Come on. In the rain and a shitty night in Chicago on Thursday. Those Thursday night games, you can't take anything defensively on those games. And by the way, the Bears still don't know how to score in the first half. They're going to need to score 30 points in the second half to cover this spread. I swear to God. Because. Because what's going to happen is LaFleur, if anything, I would say let's take the packers first half and then let's take. And let's take the Bears second half.

[Simon Hunter]

We can do that. But yeah, for our pick contest obviously doesn't work. You know, I just. These are the type of games that just the, the Bears win this a meaningless game that affects their draft position. That's another reason. It's just like you just said, they're just everything they do, they do to torture their fan base. And this feels like another game. But you wouldn't be happy if they beat Green Bay. I mean, when's the last time you guys beat Green Bay?

[Chad Millman]

I don't care. It's not even a rivalry.

[Simon Hunter]

Shit. So, yeah, I don't know. It's. It's really about the number. Yeah, I'm not rushing to bet this one because Chad's right. This, this could easily go back up depending what, what quotes come out this weekend. We've already missed the 10, so I'm not going to rush that bet it. But it's definitely a game on my Radar of a dog.

[Chad Millman]

I like Bears haven't won a road game on a Sunday in three full calendar years. 20 straight games. The last QP to do it in this spot, Nick foles, December of 21. There you go. He's the only guy, he's the only quarterback who can make us both happy. Giants at Philly.

[Simon Hunter]

You guys, didn't you go up to New England and beat New England on the road on like a Thursday night game or something like that?

[Chad Millman]

I said Sunday.

[Simon Hunter]

Oh yeah, that's a good disclaimer. Sunday. Okay.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. New England and Philly. Philly is. This is prices. If Philly is benching everyone has moved from four and a half to three. Giants, you know, had the number one pick and now it's over. If they win, they could actually fall out of the top five. Malik Neighbors I think wants to go off in this game and this is one of those games where you back the team with a win percentage of 25% or less. So the Giants are just stupid enough to keep trying to win here.

[Simon Hunter]

And I pissed the move this was going to be my Simon says play. I loved it. It was four. When you talked about in Sunday and like you just said, it's now it's down to three at most books still would bet it now. I still think it's going to keep dropping. Obviously Terry McKe looked good for his four passes. He came in and played for the Eagles. But you expect the Giants to keep playing hard with the Eagles. This is a vacation week. I know they're going to have their backups in there who are going to be trying. But you know, just looking at this matchup, it just feels like another game that as the game goes along, Eagles will keep pulling out guys, right? Putting special teamers in to play linebacker or safety or corner. Like just giving them reps in time that they never get during the regular season. On the flip side, the Giants. I totally get why people want to fade them right after Drew Lock's best game. You expect it to drop off, right? You expect them to just lay down and have a bad game here. But I think Chad's right. Like this just feels like another team that could screw up their draft position, come out, play hard, you know, they don't care. Like they just. They want to win. They. They don't care about what the draft. They don't even know if they'll be on this team next year, let alone. So yeah, just all about the number. Feels like this is still too high. Plus three. The value just is all on this Giants team at this point, Chargers are.

[Chad Millman]

Five point favorites against five and a half point favorites against the Raiders. The Chargers kind of know what they need when they play. Steelers win, Chargers will be a six seed. If the Steelers lose, then the Chargers have to win to be the fifth seed. At five, they get the Texans. At six, they get the Ravens. Do we take the Chargers now as a hedgehog in case the Steelers lose and this line goes up because of motivation? Normally you'd want to fade the favorite against the bad team, but we like playing the Chargers. They don't stop trying, especially if they have a little bit of motivation. And I think we're at the top of the market on the Raiders.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And it's interesting. A lot of pros I've talked to Chad, they actually really like the Raiders here. They like this.

[Chad Millman]

They do.

[Simon Hunter]

I know why.

[Chad Millman]

Because the pros, all season long, they like the shitty teams that are underdogs and that's why they've been fucking losing.

[Simon Hunter]

Not even that. I think it's. It's more about how they've been playing down the stretch here. Like they've been really com competitive against bad teams. And I think I agree with you in the fact that this Chargers team is such a huge step above those teams they've been beating up on. Like, this is a legit good team that, you know, Vegas is going to have a no Connell making mistakes. They're not going to get the ball back. Right. This Chargers team is going to dominate them if they do make this stupid mistake. So nothing's changed for me. I'm still with you on the Chargers team. Still, like at a five and a half. You know, I get where the pros are coming from. The Vegas has been playing better. But this, this Chargers team just feels like they're hitting on every level right now. Like they just seem like so in control offensively, defensively. It feels like they found their identity as well. Like even Khalil Mack and Bosa have been playing really well down the stretchers. So yeah, Chargers team is probably a little underrated here at this point. Chad, you're right. This probably could get up to six and a half seven by kickoff if they are playing all out for this.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, totally. Okay, Are you ready for my executive decision?

[Simon Hunter]

Do it.

[Chad Millman]

I'm going with a road favorite. The Seattle Seahawks -3 against the Los Angeles Rams.

[Simon Hunter]

A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders and secure the executive decision.

[Chad Millman]

The Rams actually have something to play for if they win. They get the three seed. They play Green Bay or Washington at home. If they lose, they play Minnesota Detroit at home. But Sean McVeigh said on his radio show yesterday, this is how deep we go, that he's leaning towards resting his starters. He even said he was excited to see how Jimmy Garoppolo could do. He's excited to see how Blake Corum could do with more carries. Pretty good indication to me that the Rams are going to be resting. The Seahawks while they beat the Bears are still one of those teams where they're getting less than 30% of the public ticket of the betting ticket. So the public is fading them and they're coming off a game in which they scored single digits. And then there's this. Geno is due $4 million in incentive if he throws for another 186 yards and he finishes with a completion percentage of 69.75. He's at 70.2. So for each of those he gets $2 million. He's going to come into this game, he's going to want to fire away. The Rams are going to be resting their starters. Give me the Seahawks and gino going for 4 mil minus 3.

[Simon Hunter]

I don't hate it. And the only scary part is yes, Seattle is not playing for a single thing. Right. Gino's the only one really sounds like he's motive here. I'm sure there's other guys that have money incentives but yeah, the, the biggest thing to me is just the fact that the Rams already had a pretty bad offensive line. Now they're putting their backups in with Jimmy Garoppolo. Like to me that's. That makes me really fired up to back this Seattle team that they do have a good pass rush and like we just said they're playing their starter so that they're going to be playing their defense. So I agree with you. I like Seattle in the spot. Especially the fact that we're getting against a ramps team that they're another team that's top heavy right. There are stars and scrub team and they've drafted well now like these last couple years they have drafted really well and they have some really good young talent. I, I've read that none of those kids are going to play either. Like McVeigh is basically going to sit all these guys try to give them this bye week. So huge deal. Like Chad just said, if you can get the minus three that's. That's really a great number for the Seattle team.

[Chad Millman]

I'm glad we're in agreement on That I also like that they've got a first year coach. They're going to want to finish as strong as they can. They want to win as many games as they can. A lot of these guys are going to be back next year so it is going to matter to them how they finish the season, how they show up on tape. Miami at the New York jets. The jets are plus 12 is still questionable. Miami is only in if Denver loses to kc. I'm not sure I'm worried about the quarterback status here, to be honest. Like we were willing to bet Huntley, you know, back in the day in the playoffs against good teams and he played well against the Browns. 80% of his passes were completed. 22, 26, 225 and a touch like what are the jets playing for here? It makes no sense to me. There is money coming in on the jets right now. Why are professional betters week after week I knowing to bet the Jets? Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed are already talking about guys who quit. I know we want to back the teams after a blowout, but what are we doing here? This is just silly.

[Simon Hunter]

What if it's our guy Tyrod Taylor though?

[Chad Millman]

You think it will be?

[Simon Hunter]

I, I don't know. I've. The stuff I read, it seems like the hate is mutual between Rogers and ownership and I, I would honestly love for them to sit him so he can't get his 500th passing touchdown to Adam. I mean Adams really wants it. Rogers wants to do it with him. I would love if they sat him and they're just like nah, you don't deserve it. I saw another really funny meme and it was basically it was four quarterbacks played in that Bills game. Three of them all had touchdowns passing. The only one that didn't was Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, I mean Mitch Trubisky, Tyrode Taylor just outshining Rodgers. So yeah, it's, it's all bad in New York. And you're right, Chad, I'm, I'm a sucker like these other professionals. I immediately when I saw this number I was like, oh, I can't wait to bet the Jets. But time I've had to sit on it. I don't want to put any money, any more money on this jets team or even involve myself in a game with them. So I get if you're on Miami side, it's the chalk. The public has been winning on these road favorites. Like I'm not going to try to talk anyone off bed in Miami. I just my instincts, I can't do it. And I just, I hate the jets at this point. I do not want to put any more money in this team. So this is the game I'm going to happily pass on.

[Chad Millman]

Wow. I'm surprised to hear that the Dolphins seem like such the obvious play.

[Simon Hunter]

The Dolphins suck. They got lucky as hell that the Cleveland just laid down and died last week. So I get where you're coming from though, like as far as vibes go. Yeah. Miami is way better right now than.

[Chad Millman]

This jets team, San Francisco and Arizona. Congrats to anyone like Evan Abrams who bet the Cardinals as underdogs before the Brock Purdy injury last night. Yeah, questionable status. Like to me given the injury status and the Cards now with three point favorites. This is a game like we got plenty of games we can choose from for five. We got two more games more to discuss. I don't have a strong opinion on this game.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, it's looking like the past or not it's going to be the quarterback. Right. So pretty, pretty insane now that Brock Purdy re injured that elbow. He had surgery on what was a year and a half ago.

[Chad Millman]

He said it wasn't the elbow. Everyone has been saying that it feels okay. Nerves. I haven't seen the latest updates. That was what I saw before we came on the air today. So I don't know if what, what's new? Supposed to get some MRI today but he was saying yesterday that it was more nerves than elbow.

[Simon Hunter]

That's why I thought it was elbow though, because that is all connected to your, your hands and your fingers where he couldn't grip the ball apparently. And it's like that, that's usually. It could be something freaky where it's a back problem or like these, these doctors are saying that could be from his elbow surgery. So maybe he's just trying to save face. We know obviously, you know, big off season for Purdy. He's trying to get a contract right now and you know, was looking like he's basically going to lock it up in that game. If they felt like if they had won that game and he didn't have those two, those two interceptions, I feel like they probably would end up getting the deal. But that, that second pick, they showed John lynch up in the box of just pure disgust.

[Chad Millman]

Oh God. It was. You could see the money draining from his bank account.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

As he threw those picks and Kyle Shanahan going nuts going, he's so mad. He's so mad that he's got to cover his face with the play sheet when he's talking into the mic after that first overthrow interception that Purdy threw. Like you can't imagine what he was saying. I haven't seen the press conference to see if anyone asked what he was saying because it was so obvious and such a great piece of television video to see him just losing and then John lynch losing his mind after the second one. Those were not good throws and like he was brilliant but those were money losing throws last night.

[Simon Hunter]

But I mean I saw a lot of tweets about it. Like this has been the problem with Brock Purdy when his team is behind he, he is horrible statistically. Like he has, I believe when he's been trailing his career he has three touchdowns and seven interceptions. Like he's just struggled really bad in those exact scenarios where he's coming from behind, needing to push the ball downfield and the defense knows he's having to push the ball downfield and he struggled. So my immediate thought was like Sam Darnold's agent just texting a bunch of money bags to John lynch like that. That to me was my first initial thought.

[Chad Millman]

That's right.

[Simon Hunter]

So yeah, in this game it's all about where the number goes. Chad, if this gets up to three and a half, how do we not fight, fail, fade. Kyler Murray, like this is the exact game he does not win. He's just, he's been so disappointed. Kyler Murray and you know, I am tempted to take the 49ers here, but you just said it's like I'm not a rush to bet this one. There's plenty other games I'm happy to bet where we have more info. So once again, if it gets up 3 1/2 4, I'm most likely going to be on the 49ers at this point. I'm not betting it.

[Chad Millman]

Casey at Denver. Denver's a 10 point favorite. I just keep feeling like this number is so high. And the Chiefs, the Chiefs are a one loss team who have been playing second stringers in various positions all season long. I know they're going to play Carson Wentz, but if anybody can make Carson Wentz a serviceable quarterback and put him in the position to make the exact right play at the exact right time three or four times in the game, isn't it Andy Reid against like Bo Nix who. I have a great stat for you. Great stat, but let's be serious about Bo Nixon. He's been throwing picks like he's just like he just gives the ball away the last four or five games, including against the Bengals. So why am I so confident in a Denver team as a 10 point favorite? I know they got to win, but feels like a lot.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. And this is going to be part of my little money line around Robin brother. Like the Chiefs plus 390, you know Bears plus 310 and the Capital for Carolina plus 340. I just, I think all these numbers are too big. Too much disrespect and that any of these teams could pull an upset on these teams and you know the, the public perception of the Chiefs will just roll over and die here and that they want this team to win in Denver. Right. They'd much rather have the Denver make the playoffs. How does that help them in any way? Denver is going to play the Bills like they don't care. They're trying to win this game. Especially Carson Went. This is a big moment for him to show off that he still got it and he's hoping to get picked up by another team. And we've seen that in these last weeks. Right. I mean the one that really jumps out to me will always be the teams that start the backup quarterback and they could come out and just like the light it up and they can get a contract that way. And this feels like this exact scenario for Carson Wentz. And I agree. You know the, the fear is this Chief's offensive line is really, really bad. Even the starters that their backups are going to be absolutely brutal and Denver will be able to attack that. I think there's gonna be ways for Andy Reid to counter that. Like he's no dummy. If he needs to keep another tight end in and keep the running back in there, he'll do that happily. And we've seen with Carson Wentz that he can have a game where he can look like an all pro or he can go the other way. He can just be absolutely terrible from the get go. Right. And we're burned right away. But at 10 points we have a lot of built in insurance on that. Like we're. It's already built in the fact that this is all backups and Carson Wentz can struggle in these type of scenarios. So you're right. 10 point being a 10 point favorite for a rookie. Way, way too many points, way too much respect. And I think the, not the books but the public is really like there's no chance this Chiefs team is going to win or cover this number. Now I've seen some like smart books have taken some really smart money on this Chiefs team and they even against it Moved it up. So they moved it from nine, nine and a half up to 10. So a little nerve wracking because it's basically them taking a stand here on this Denver team. But I do love this spot for this Chiefs team, even with Carson Wentz.

[Chad Millman]

So let me lay the stat on. You ready? Bonix has closed as a favorite seven times in 16 career starts. Thank you Evan. Seven and oh. Straight up. And against the spread covering by 12.1 points per game. The lone remaining QB, undefeated against the spread is a favorite this year.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, that is an insane sad seven zero. That's crazy.

[Chad Millman]

It's crazy right?

[Simon Hunter]

He was so dominant on the. As a road, as a road, you know, bet like that's why we loved him last week is he had basically covered every week as a road road dog. So that's, that's, that's an insane run he's been on.

[Chad Millman]

All good streaks come to an end and I believe this could be the week.

[Simon Hunter]

Let's go. That's my guy.

[Chad Millman]

Minnesota at Detroit.

[Simon Hunter]

I love this freaking team. I love the coaches, I love the players. I love everything about it. Man, we are so freaking hardened. Even when it doesn't go the way we want it to, man, you find a way.

[Chad Millman]

Look, I love the NFL. They're so fucking smart. Like they made us all wait until Monday to get the schedule. Then they've got it all worked out. So no team knows like their situation except for one or two until they all play at the same time. It's just, it's so good. And then they cap it with the game when they made the schedule. They're hoping like these late season division games will have a scenario like this. Minnesota at Detroit. Detroit's a two and a half point favorite. I'm a little surprised this hasn't moved in the Vikings direction after last night. Because everything the Niners did, which is everything the Bills did a couple of weeks earlier, which is everything the packers did against the Lions the week before that is what the Vikings can do. Move the ball with ease against a beaten up and beaten down defense. The total has moved since last night from 52 and a half to 57 and a half. Highest total in a game since 2021. I still like Detroit.

[Simon Hunter]

Now. Let's go from, let's start from the top though. This is basically before the season started. Me and Chad talk about our favorite team to win this division. We both like Detroit. I already talked about, I like parlaying these, these divisional winners together. So if you are someone that followed that and you have Detroit paired with the Chiefs and the Eagles or whoever. This is like the dream scenario for hedging. Like, if you can get. If. Especially if you can find a plus three. I don't know if it's going to get back to it. You might have to unfortunately buy half a point to get up that. That plus three. But we, we already talked about this one. This feels like whoever's the. The possession last wins this game. Like this. Both defenses we know can be moved against like, the. They're. The Vikings have been a team that have excelled this season because of takeaways. Right. That's kind of been the thing that. The saving grace for that defense that, you know, just doesn't have that much talent. Right. That we knew that coming to the season. But between scheme and takeaways, they've been able to really piece it together defensively on Detroit side. Oh, my God, Chad. Like, they just have nothing left. It feels like nothing. Nothing.

[Chad Millman]

It's so sad to watch. Like, you. The. The sideline shots of Aaron Glenn, the poor guy, like, he's just. He's looking down at his play sheet and he's got those fun glasses on. They're always a different color. And he's just, he's looking for answers. He's yelling into his headset. There's just. There's nothing they can do. Like, literally nothing. They just, they're the Saints offense only, you know, like, they just don't have the players and they desperately, desperately need to win this game. They desperately, desperately need to buy. To get some guys some rest, to get some guys healthy so they can get two or three guys back by the time they're playing in the playoffs. I don't know how they're going to.

[Simon Hunter]

Stop the Vikings, and I don't know who's betting Detroit. Honestly, after watching that game, I said I wanted to be on Detroit when it was two and a half, I was like, that feels. Feels like the right number for them. But after watching that defense and seeing how their linebackers play, they have no speed. They have no speed in the middle of the field. That means you can attack the middle of the field at any time you want. And we know that's what Okonos wants to do here.

[Chad Millman]

So, yeah, Sam Darnold is. Sam Darnold has been brilliant throwing between the numbers this year.

[Simon Hunter]

And it's interesting, looking at the early money here in the Action app, it's. It's basically all Detroit, which is, yeah. Honestly, surprising.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

The fact that this team is on a Short week and they're already devastated. All those, like we talk about all those injuries, you know, I think they're talking about the broadcast last night. They one of the earliest bye weeks in the whole season. So it's like not, not a good matchup or a spot for this team and you know, maybe it's the human elevator to me, but I just, I want the Vikings to get this one seed at this point. Like as much as I love this Detroit team and I've already said I'm on record about it, like Detroit, the Bills heading to this super bowl run. If I had to pick a seam outside the Eagles, these are the teams I want to win the Super Bowl. Like I love Detroit's fan base, Bill's fan base, two best fan bases. No one has been through more hell than those two fan. I mean guess the Browns, but like they broke the curse last year, right? They had one playoff win in 50 years. They won two playoff games last year. It was all lined up for Detroit and they just got screwed. Like they got screwed by injury bug. And you know man, Campbell, he's going to be aggressive, he's going to keep doing his fourth down thing and you know Ben Johnson is just in his bag calling these great plays in these really unique situations. It's going to catch them like they, they, they. Of all the teams in the playoffs, they need the most amount of luck because of how bad their defense is and they basically, if golf has an off day, they're dead. That's the honest truth. Like they he is so dependent on right now. Obviously he's not an MVP discussion but I mean he should be. The way he's carried this team down the stretch with all their injuries they've had, it's just been remarkable. So it's painful. It's painful, painful to do right now, Chad. But I do love the Vikings. I think it's very telling. The books are holding strong right now, two and a half. So I'm not in a rush to bet Vikings because I do think maybe we'll get back to a three with all this public love on Detroit. But man, it's in a normal year, a year where the books are right and laying good numbers and people doubt the dog. This would be one of my bigger bets. Like I love this spot so much for Minnesota. I just think offensively they're actually better. To me in my opinion, I think defensively they still have the guys who are healthy enough to make game changing plays where Detroit, they just don't have the piece of defensively to make the game changing plays like I know they have right now. It was other safety that's leading the league in interceptions. I forget who it is.

[Chad Millman]

Kirby Joseph. Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Incredible season. But it's like. I don't know. There's ways they can. They can get around that in the Vikings team. So. Yeah, I can't believe it. But I do love this Vikings here, plus two and a half.

[Chad Millman]

Well, you need miracles like Kirby Joseph last night with two picks against Brock Purdy. Otherwise they. I don't know if they win that game. It's funny you mentioned. We talked about that was. That was one of our five picks and in the middle of the game and you said you thought it was a dead bet where 1 in 4. I had kind of forgotten. I forgotten. I bet the lines minus 3. I forgot we had a minus 3 half in the contest.

[Simon Hunter]

What a life you live.

[Chad Millman]

Well, I was just. I was actually just looking ahead and trying to see. All right, has the number moved on the Vikings yet? Because I was surprised with how badly the lines defense was playing. Thinking about the. The number not moving because I was looking to sort of play the Vikings before the number got out of control.

[Simon Hunter]

Right.

[Chad Millman]

And it hasn't budged.

[Simon Hunter]

No.

[Chad Millman]

And it's. It's interesting to hear talk about the Vikings because rationally, you're right. Emotionally, I just want this Lions team to win so bad. Like, even as a Bears fan, I love Dan Campbell. I love the story. I feel like with Ben Johnson, everyone knows he's gone. This is. This is a great shot for them. I want them to get healthy. They deserve it. They deserve it for the way they play.

[Simon Hunter]

This is probably my favorite team to watch. I don't believe this is my favorite team to watch this season. Every game exciting. Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Love this team. Love their attitude. I want. I don't know if I can bet this game because I want them to win so badly.

[Simon Hunter]

I don't want to throw the Vikings in a teaser. Then get up to eight and a half. That's a nice number.

[Chad Millman]

All right. I'm going to do that. Like, I can't. I just don't want to bet against.

[Simon Hunter]

There you go. You can. You can throw Chargers in to win outright. Throw the Vikings in to cover eight and a half. That's a nice teaser.

[Chad Millman]

Okay, that's what I'll do. That's. That makes me feel better. Campbell, by the way, 64% against the spread as a. As a head coach. That is the best for any head coach with a minimum 20 games. In the super bowl era.

[Simon Hunter]

Hey listen man, to say that I'm proud of you would be the massive understatement. Composure, communication.

[Chad Millman]

And how's this the lions the past four years, 70% against the spread. Don't forget Dan Campbell had like a short stin as the Dolphins head coach. That's why his number isn't the same as the lions. The best three year against the spread stretch since the 16 to 18 New England Patriots and as of now the best four year stretch for any team in the super bowl era.

[Simon Hunter]

And correct me if I'm wrong, Evan, but I have this amazing memory. Me and Chad basically were all in on this Detroit team and might have been 2021. It was Man Campbell's first year and they're over nine playing Minnesota. We had them in our money line round robin. I believe it was fourth down, last play of the game. Jared Goff throws that touchdown against the Vikings to get their first win of the season for Detroit. And it's kind of full circle moment like both these teams now three years later, 14 and 2. First time in history we've had two teams at 14 and 2 playing for their division and the loser will be. It's insane to think it'll be 14 and three and be the fifth seed. It's just, I love this matchup so much. This is, this is truly a historical game we're seeing here.

[Chad Millman]

All right, well, my exact decision on Seattle at -3 since I mentioned it because I moved numbers and it, it's freakish how often it happens is now up to four. Sharp.

[Simon Hunter]

Sharp, Sharp, Sharp.

[Chad Millman]

Chad Millman, Sharp. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code Favorites Deposit $10 Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ord. 365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions, restrictions apply. Simon and I will return next year in 2025 with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page 11am Eastern Thursday to talk our final best bets of the regular season. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate review subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Happy New Year. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.