Summary of "The Herd with Colin Cowherd" – Episode: The Favorites - NFL Week 18 Betting Preview

Release Date: December 31, 2024

In this comprehensive episode of "The Favorites," hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter navigate the tumultuous landscape of NFL betting in Week 18, offering in-depth analyses, sharing insights from the season, and presenting their expert picks for the final week. Despite an unconventional season where traditional betting strategies faltered, Chad and Simon provide valuable perspectives to help bettors make informed decisions.

1. Reflecting on an Unusual Betting Season

The episode opens with Chad Millman expressing frustration over the inconsistent performance of favorites this season. Traditionally reliable, favorites have not been delivering expected returns, leaving bettors questioning their strategies.

Chad Millman [04:11]: "This has not been the year for us. Situations that have gone our way for years have completely flipped."

Simon Hunter echoes this sentiment, highlighting the unpredictability and the challenges faced by both public and professional bettors.

Simon Hunter [04:43]: "And it's, it's sickening... the public got really fat over Christmas break and the books usually slaughter them Sunday night. They didn't."

Key Statistics Presented:

• Favorites: Achieved a 72% straight-up win rate this year, the highest since 2005.
• Underdogs: Experienced the least profitable money line season since 2005.
• Spread Bets: Teams with less than 30% of betting tickets cover the spread 60% of the time after scoring single digits.

These statistics, provided by Evan Abrams, underscore the volatility and the departure from historical betting trends.

2. Detailed Game Analyses and Betting Picks

Chad and Simon delve into specific Week 18 matchups, dissecting each game's nuances to present their betting recommendations.

a. Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Line: Baltimore favored by 17½ points.

Chad emphasizes Baltimore's motivation to secure a playoff spot, while Simon remains cautious due to previous betting losses.

Chad Millman [12:37]: "Do you have strong thoughts on the 17 and a half right now?"

Simon Hunter [12:44]: "I won't do it because we've been getting burned."

b. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• Line: Pittsburgh favored by 1½ points.

They discuss the Steelers' potential to rest starters, affecting the game's outcome. Simon favors Cincinnati, citing Joe Burrow's performance.

Simon Hunter [19:17]: "I honestly love this one for Cincy because it just feels like this is the game since he wins and then, you know, it doesn't matter."

c. Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

• Line: Patriots as 3-point underdogs at home.

Simon critiques the Patriots' management and quarterback situation, expressing skepticism about their future.

Simon Hunter [20:36]: "I have zero faith in their GM or head coach right now."

d. Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

• Line: Tennessee favored by 1 point.

Chad and Simon analyze Tennessee's resilience despite a challenging season, deciding to back them.

Simon Hunter [26:06]: "They've been trying and being competitive in these games."

e. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

• Line: Jacksonville significant underdogs.

Highlighting the Colts' quarterback struggles, both hosts lean towards supporting Jacksonville.

Simon Hunter [35:55]: "I just love this Jags team."

f. Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

• Line: Washington favored by 4 points.

They see value in Washington securing a playoff berth, despite the team's overall poor season.

Simon Hunter [37:52]: "I don't hate the Jets... I just hate the Dolphins."

g. New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Line: Saints initially favored by 14½ points, now 13½.

Concerned about the Saints' offensive capabilities, they favor the Buccaneers to cover the spread.

Simon Hunter [40:15]: "It's the Saints are a JV team."

h. Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• Line: Falcons favored by 8½ points.

Amid personal frustrations with the Falcons' performance, Simon supports the Panthers for an upset.

Simon Hunter [44:56]: "I've been crying... I just love this Panthers team."

i. Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

• Line: Packers initially at 10 points, moving up to 9½.

Chad opts to back the Bears, leveraging their poor road performance history and Packers' defensive lapses.

Chad Millman [48:19]: "The Bears have a winning percentage of less than 25%... So, that is the Packers, the team in this, the bad team in this scenario covers 59% of the time."

j. Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions

• Line: Vikings favored by 2½ points.

Despite emotional ties to the Lions, they support the Vikings due to Detroit's defensive shortcomings.

Simon Hunter [73:47]: "This is probably my favorite team to watch. Every game exciting."

k. Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

• Line: Seahawks favored by up to 4 points.

Both hosts agree on backing Seattle, considering the Rams' likely rest of starters and Seahawks' defensive strengths.

Simon Hunter [57:29]: "I like Seattle in the spot. Especially the fact that we're getting against a Rams team that [is] top heavy."

l. Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

• Line: Jets as 12-point underdogs.

Expressing disdain for the Jets, both decide to pass on betting this game.

Simon Hunter [58:36]: "I'm a sucker for these Week 18 games... I hate the Jets at this point."

m. San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

• Line: Cardinals at 3 points, moving to 4 points.

Due to Brock Purdy's questionable health and inconsistent performance, they remain cautious but lean towards the 49ers.

n. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

• Line: Chiefs favored by 10 points.

Critiquing the inflated line, they doubt the Chiefs' offensive line and Carson Wentz's effectiveness, opting to bet against the Chiefs.

Simon Hunter [66:53]: "That is an insane sad seven zero. That's crazy."

3. Contest and Listener Engagement

Chad and Simon announce their ongoing $100,000 pro football pick contest, congratulating current leaders and motivating listeners to participate. They highlight weekly winners and encourage audience engagement through the contest.

4. Final Picks and Executive Decision

Concluding the episode, Chad makes an executive decision to back the Seattle Seahawks over the Los Angeles Rams, emphasizing the Rams' likely exhaustion and Seahawks' defensive capabilities.

Chad Millman [54:43]: "I'm going with a road favorite. The Seattle Seahawks -3 against the Los Angeles Rams."

Simon supports this decision, reinforcing their confidence in Seattle's performance.

Simon Hunter [56:29]: "I like Seattle in the spot. Especially the fact that we're getting against a Rams team that [is] top heavy."

Notable Quotes:

• Chad Millman [04:11]: "This has not been the year for us. Situations that have gone our way for years have completely flipped."

• Simon Hunter [04:43]: "And it's, it's sickening... the public got really fat over Christmas break and the books usually slaughter them Sunday night. They didn't."

• Chad Millman [12:37]: "Do you have strong thoughts on the 17 and a half right now?"

• Simon Hunter [12:44]: "I won't do it because we've been getting burned."

• Simon Hunter [35:55]: "I just love this Jags team."

• Simon Hunter [73:47]: "This is probably my favorite team to watch. Every game exciting."

Conclusion

In "The Favorites - NFL Week 18 Betting Preview," Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide a thorough examination of the final week's NFL games, blending statistical analysis with strategic betting insights. Despite a challenging season where traditional betting strategies underperformed, their expert commentary aims to guide listeners through the complexities of Week 18, offering informed picks and encouraging responsible betting practices.

Note: Advertisements, promos, and non-content segments have been omitted to focus solely on the informative aspects of the episode.