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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
Foreign.
- [00:09]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday NFL wild card weekend episode. We're going to break down the opening weekend of the NFL playoffs. We will discuss our exec decision and our Simon says and do not fret. On Thursday we will have the usual menu, foxhole, big balls, all that good stuff. The number of games slims down. But our enthusiasm for the playoffs has never been bigger. Live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios, I'm joined as always by my bff, my co host, my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [01:00]
Simon Hunter
Hello, Chad. I feel bad I didn't ask you about who the hell you want to be the new Bears new head coach.
- [01:06]
Chad Millman
Well, I've got so many good choices now between potentially Mike McCarthy or Thomas Brown or Ben Johnson, who if he's smart, is going to run as fast as he can from this glorious opportunity. This morning I woke up and I'm like, I love Mike McCarthy. I think he'd be great.
- [01:26]
Simon Hunter
Really.
- [01:27]
Chad Millman
Like, my expectations are so low right now for who will be the head coach. What this organization can pull in based on its history, based on its executive structure, based on how much it might be willing to pay versus other teams. I like, can we get Mike Dicker back? Like Mike Dicker circa 1983 who is essentially Dan Campbell? True, I don't know. Is there a Dan Campbell motivator out there who can overcome literally generations of ineptitude and ownership that is legacy focused and driven and has not been able to transform into a modern organization? Give me that guy.
- [02:19]
Simon Hunter
I'll say I've learned as an Eagles fan that you don't want the, the guy you want, you usually don't want to get. Right. I remember I wanted Ben McAdoo and the Eagles and we got Doug Peterson, some nobody QB coach from Kansas City. War still wore visors and I was like, oh my God, this guy is not Philly at all. Brought me in my only ring. So shows how stupid us fans can be. So, yeah, I just want to get your level of it because I'm, I'm read, I'm with you. I'm reading the news and everything like that. It's like, man, this is going to be really interesting to see who ends up with the Bears because you do have, you know, the top talent at quarterback position and there's a lot to work with with this team. So it's, to me, it's fun like when you're trying to figure out the future when you're a team, like you have, it's. It's exciting because you. They're going to absolutely love it or you are going to hate whoever they bring in.
- [03:05]
Chad Millman
Doesn't matter. It's not going to end well and it'll be the wrong person. It's so funny that you mentioned Doug Peterson because I wrote a little soliloquy about Doug into the script today because he means a lot to both of us and he's an integral part of both of our lives. You just mentioned he led your favorite team to its only super bowl win in 2018, which happened to be played A little action network history here weeks after we launched action and we did a massive radio and TV blitz, like in the two weeks before the super bowl to get action all over local radio, doing these radio, two tours, 30, 40, 50 spots, whatever. And we were all over, you know, the airwaves predicting that the Eagles would cover as underdogs in that game against the Pats. Obviously they did more than that, and it kicked off a beautiful beginning to our business. As you know, I just said it, like, I almost feel like Doug Peterson is a little bit of the precursor to Dan Campbell because the most famous play from that game, of course, is Philly Special. Philly. Philly. They go forward on fourth and one at the end of the first half. It turns from a 1512 lead into. Into a 2212 lead. They scored a touchdown on the play. It was that, you know, option to Nick Foles, who was. Who caught the ball in the end zone. But here's the real reason why. Well, do you agree with me, by the way? Like, I think he was at the leading edge of going forward on fourth down. He was more aggressive as the Eagles coach than any other coach in the NFL was at the time. And it sort of gave birth to what a lot of coaches do today, especially Dan Campbell.
- [05:03]
Simon Hunter
Shockingly, I can't believe I'm going to do it because he was not this way at the end of his career. But Riverboat Ron, Ron Rivera with that Carolina team, that 2016 run, he was the most go for Cam Newton, 4th and 2, 4th and 3. Ultimate trust in his quarterback. So I'll give him the crib. I think Doug definitely was a guy that was the first to have a ton of success with it, right? Like that, that run, you know, that was all about it, right? He even that super bowl, he had those big, big moments like that. Like you just talked to The Philly Specials on a fourth and one. Like you know he misses that play. Talk about an idiot, right? If like you're going for in that, in that position. So yeah, Doug, Doug Peterson definitely at the top of that list.
- [05:44]
Chad Millman
We also love him because his team's covered this season. This like we talked about this when he came back.
- [05:49]
Simon Hunter
Like we good to us as a dog.
- [05:51]
Chad Millman
Loved betting Doug Peterson when he came back to the Jags. He finished his career over 500, over 53% as an underdog. So he was covering and making us money this season. This is a great stat. I looked this up on Action Network. You can see again to spread records. This season The Jags were 10 and seven against the spread, tied with four other teams for 11th best. However, they were only. They were the only team of the top 13 teams to finish with double digigit losses and only one of three teams to not make the playoffs. The others were the nine win Bengals and the eight win Cardinals. Late in the year he provided one of the few bright spots we had this season. We just had a beat on Doug Peterson and Mac Jones and his team. So let's give it up for Dougie.
- [06:41]
Simon Hunter
P. Thank you Doug.
- [06:43]
Chad Millman
Thank you Doug. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spread totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or 1, 800 bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Right? One quack one. One last quick announcement before we get to wild card weekend. Our favorites $100,000 Pro Football Pick'em contest has crowned its winners. Paperwork is being filled out. Piles of cash are being doled out. On Thursday morning, Simon and I expect to be chatting with our extremely excited $40,000 first place winner. I look forward to sharing that with listeners. The dude was on fire all season long. We're gonna try to convince him to put all of it on wild card weekend with us. A very quick congrats to week 18 winner. Promo master went five zero within one yard of the tiebreaker. Promo Master takes home the final weekly $1,000 prize. Simon, we love the playoffs. We're starting anew. It's a challenging regular season. I feel locked in. I feel good about where we're headed. I feel like I have clarity. Are you ready to roll with me, brother?
- [08:32]
Simon Hunter
I am. I just want to piggyback off what you just said, though, how much we do love our fans. And you know me, Chad, we don't know the future with what our contest is next year, anything like that. But to have two seasons in a row giving away over 100k cash, it's pretty cool, man. Like, it's. It's so rare in this unique position to do it. And thank you to all the fans that played in the Cont and obviously the fans that came to our live show the past two years and just talked about the contest and how much fun it is and you know, a couple people I've met. Like that thousand dollars, right. That's huge that week. Right. It goes towards your rent or maybe in a vacation you're planning with the. With a special friend. So, yeah, I'm, I'm happy it's over for us personally, but I'm sad it's over for the fans and the season just because it is so much fun just giving away free money every week.
- [09:17]
Chad Millman
Simon, another great example of how you feel more deeply and are a significantly kinder person than I am if you.
- [09:27]
Simon Hunter
Catch me at the right moment.
- [09:28]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Well, it's early in the week, right?
- [09:30]
Simon Hunter
There you go.
- [09:31]
Chad Millman
The Los Angeles Chargers, first playoff game Saturday afternoon, visiting the Houston Texans.
- [09:37]
Simon Hunter
Don't gamble. Don't associate with gamblers. Avoidant like the plague.
- [09:44]
Chad Millman
This game has been bouncing around three, two and a half. Three, two and a half. I did bet it at two and a half. I bet the Chargers it's at three. At bet365. There's one or two books where you can get two and a half. We like the Chargers on Sunday night. Nothing has changed my mind. 36 hours of research since the games locked on Sunday night. Digging in yesterday. So so many thoughts on this. But before I dig in, sort of from my point of view, has anything changed for you since we first started talking about it on Sunday?
- [10:18]
Simon Hunter
No. I think our gut instinct of taking the minus two and a half for the Chargers or take the minus three was right. We both thought that this would go up. The most shocking part is it did touch three and a half for a second and then some really smart money clearly came in. A couple of those books moved all the way. Two and a half. That's how much they respect the money they come in on Houston. So it's, it's gonna be an interesting game because I'm not really seeing it from the Houston side. Like my perspective is okay, Houston's defense is better than people give them credit for. Right. They have outperformed in a lot of ways this season. But we've seen like Herbert and this team against good defenses have played really well. Like anytime they faced a good defense, they play sound football. And especially Herbert, I mean, you know, obviously it's non stop us giving him flowers, but he deserves it this season. Like the, him being smarter with the ball was the key to the success of this team this season. And I don't know if he only had four turnovers or five interceptions. Whatever it was, it's, it's incredibly low for someone like him that loves to push the ball downfield. So looking at this matchup on paper it's like, okay, we already love the Chargers matchup wise. Like their defense going against is really bad. I don't say really bad because they've had so many injuries to their offense in Houston. But they are struggle.
- [11:29]
Chad Millman
Struggling.
- [11:30]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, struggling. And you know, the fact that we also have a short week here, like that's not being talked enough to me is that this is a short week and it is a spot where Har ball, you know, he's three and oh straight up against the spread this season as on a short week. On the flip side, we've seen Houston, they've struggled on short weeks, right. They've not been the same team on short weeks with less preparation. And the only hesitation for me is that this will be the Chargers third straight road game. Like that's not a great spot. They are a road favorite in this.
- [12:03]
Chad Millman
Spot which historically third straight is a road favorite.
- [12:06]
Simon Hunter
Right. So like there's a lot of trends that point to back in Houston, which is to me why smart money here is coming in on Houston where it's like mathematically, yes, like Houston probably is the right side long term. But me and Chad always talk about there is that 30% that's we're betting on here. We're betting the other side of that where it's like this to me is the right spot, the right side and this is the perfect team matchup wise against this, this team in Houston. Like I just think that they could have caught some other teams and maybe you could see a way for Houston to winter cover. I'm just not finding one year, Chad. So like it's shocking how much I am Supporting you here because this does feel insanely chalky to me, like very, very public. But to me the number is right. The value is on the number. And I'm just, I just think this should be three and a half. We're getting three minus two and a half. I'll take that value every time.
- [12:55]
Chad Millman
Smart money may be coming on Houston, but this is the executive decision.
- [13:01]
Simon Hunter
A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders.
- [13:06]
Chad Millman
Execute them. Executive decision. It's partially the exact decision because a lot of the other numbers have moved just much more aggressively from when we first started talking about these. So I still like the two and a half three for the Chargers, but everything you said I can back up with with even more detail and more data. We have avoided betting the Texans, right? Like CJ has not played well. He has not played well because of constant injuries to his receiving core. The offensive line has truly been terrible. They cannot get off the line of scrimmage and win one on one matchups right now. Defenses have played him differently this year. The last eight games of the year they ranked 28th in EPA per play. You know, that's behind Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans. Meanwhile, why have we loved the Chargers? You just mentioned it. They do not turn the ball over. Only nine all season. Second fewest behind Buffalo. And I'm going to keep saying it, I feel like this year, and we'll go, we're going to do like a big sort of study over the off season on the impact of getting the ball at the 30 and then being able to be within field goal range within a player to how that impacts coaching decisions, clock management, fourth down decisions, when you are deciding to go for the extra four points. If you're on the other side of the field and you know you have a field goal in your pocket. The Chargers just don't make egregiously bad coaching decisions. And that's been an imperative this year when it comes to clock management, when it comes to going forward and fourth down. So you and I are aligned. I like the coaching matchup. Not saying I don't like D'Ameco Ryan's, but I just love Harbaugh and I like what Herbert can do. I don't like how C.J. stroud has played. I think this will be the last game to a tough year in which everything that the Texans had had a hard time overcoming will come to fruition. In this game. They aren't going to all of a sudden be great. They don't have the personnel that they thought they were going to have.
- [15:36]
Simon Hunter
And the. Basically the basics is that when you're, when you're going through all these playoff games, you really have to believe in the quarterback. Right. When you're playing these numbers, because that's what it all comes down to. And it's the legacy play of. We both remember, obviously, what happened last time Herb was in the playoffs. That was an historical meltdown. But when you go back and you think about it, it's like if he had the right coaching, that just wouldn't have happened against that Jaguars team his first time around the playoffs. So I'm not taking too much away from it. I am taking away from it that he came out in the playoffs his first time around. He lit it up offensively and he was moving the ball downfield. So I think Herbert is ready for this moment. And, I mean, it's all setting up. Chad, if they, if they, if they steal this game here and they do go to play Kansas City, we've seen how tough they play Kansas City. Or can they be the Kryptonite? So it is lined up perfectly. And, you know, as someone that has money invested in the Chiefs, yes, it would be very nice for me if Houston would win this game because that would be an absolute layup for this Chiefs team. So, yeah, it's lined up for this Chargers team to make a run with. Horrible.
- [16:37]
Chad Millman
My takeaway from that Jaguars Chargers playoff game. Doug EP can bring you back and win you some money because we were on the Jags in that game. I don't know if you remember it. I remember that was a stressful game right there. I think it was.
- [16:51]
Simon Hunter
We were in New York. We were watching with everyone. I was like, we were at a party with all of our coworkers and I was like, I got to get out of here at half halftime. I just couldn't, couldn't do it anymore. And, yeah, that was a legendary comeback.
- [17:02]
Chad Millman
If you're interested in tailing my executive decision on the Chargers, here's what you should do. Go to the app, use bets bet365 quick slip link. You can see it in this episode description. You're just going to click on it. It's going to take you right to the bet that you want. It's going to open up a slip. You can just put in how much you want to bet you're on the Chargers. I used Quick Slip this morning when I was baking a bet on this next game. It is one click from your mobile device. The Chargers bet slip will just pop up in your bet365 app. You'll be ready to bet. It is autumn magical. Pittsburgh at Baltimore. It's the second game on Saturday.
- [17:52]
Simon Hunter
It's Baltimore, gentlemen. The gods will not save you.
- [17:56]
Chad Millman
Baltimore is a 10 point favorite. This one's going for a ride, brother. It opened at eight and a half on Sunday night. It's only gone up. It seems like the ceiling is 10. When it hit 10 there was buyback. It came down to nine and a half. Then it went back up to 10 and it's kind of just been sitting there, which is a little surprising to me and that it hasn't come back down. I don't know why this happened. Okay, I'm going to tell you a story. I woke up this morning at like 4:00 and I had to pee. I tossed and turned for like two hours trying to go back to bed and I couldn't. This happens every single night, by the way. It's freaking brutal. At around 6:15, it's still pitch blackout and this pops into my head. I don't, I don't know why. Isn't it crazy that The Steelers are 10 point underdogs? Like isn't this the ultimate overreaction? I rolled over, opened up the action app. I used quick slip by the way, and I bet the Steelers a plus 10. I wonder what Mike Tomlin is going to say about that.
- [19:01]
Simon Hunter
This is a grow up moment right here for you young studs. Let's live. It's not that shocking though because we basically broke it down. Something that I, we knew this was going to be one of the heavier teased Moneyline parlay. Teams like the books basically are just protecting against that Chad. That's what to me the movement's based off. Because I told you they know they're going to get Pittsburgh professional money. Like it's just, it's just a fact that's going to come in. The amount of money though from Joe Public right now just shows how heavy it is on the Moneyline parlays and everything like that with this Ravens team, which to me makes sense. This is a Pittsburgh team that they're on what, a four game losing streak. I think Evan put in his article. They haven't scored more than 17 points in those games. Like Russ has just fallen off an absolute cliff to this point. Me and you are simply betting on this basically this matchup because we have historically always just taken the dog and we've just been making crazy money doing it. And the fact that These are divisional rivals and that these games are always just weird. Now the first time they played, I believe was 18, 16 win by this Pittsburgh team. Second time they played, I believe they got blown out. 34 to 17.
- [20:06]
Chad Millman
34, 17.
- [20:07]
Simon Hunter
But when you go back and you look, it's like there were basically in that game into Joe. Joey Porter Jr. Went out. Once he went out, Lamar just totally took advantage of that. Now he's back. J.J. watt put up a legit, I think his first finish career last week. T.J. watt.
- [20:26]
Chad Millman
Yeah, call him J.J. every single episode.
- [20:28]
Simon Hunter
You know why? It's because I've been. I've been watching a lot of J.J. watt stuff because he owns my soccer club, Burnley. So I've just been locked in on J.J. watt. I know it's brutal. I keep doing it, but TJ basically had his first, I feel like, of his career shut out last week against Cincinnati. Like, literally didn't have a tackle, didn't have a sack, had zero pressures. Was even said it was one of the worst games he's ever played. Okay, so we have Joey Porter Jr. Back for this defense. We have an insanely motivated T.J. watt defensively, and they might be without their number one receiver in Zay Flowers, which to me, that's an underlying. This, like, that's a very, very something that's not being talked about enough right now. That's a huge deal for this team. Losing him coming in because he is the deep threat. Like, he's the reason they have to keep his safety back and that Derek Henry can have these type of runs. Same with Lamar. But now that he's out, why would they not come down and stack the box? So, yeah, we, like, we didn't even dive into the trends. I kind of want to save that for Evan and Thursday, but I love it like this. I can't help it. When it went to 10, I. I remember thinking to myself, oh, my God, I am either just the sucker right now, just like last week with that Chiefs number, or this is like you just said, this is an insane amount of disrespect and movement against this Pittsburgh team. And we are getting, I mean, what feels like two to three free points to work with here. Like something that's very unique to playoff football where books have to protect against these big favorites. So we know the data, right? 10 point favorites. They're 17 one straight up. That one loss was Lamar against that Tennessee team in 2020, I believe. So there's just. There's a lot like, I know we, we. I get Crowned. I don't know if Chad does is Lamar Hater. It's just in the playoffs, like, what do you guys want me to do? We have the data. Like last year we talked about that was the perfect team for him and he couldn't do anything against that Chiefs team. So we' him struggle against good defenses in the playoffs. I think this Pittsburgh team, I know they haven't shown up late, but I still think they are elite defense and this is a nice spot to back this Pittsburgh team. So yeah, Simon says give me Pittsburgh +10. Chad.
- [22:35]
Chad Millman
I bet it too. I put it in the app. It's a plus 10. I couldn't decide when I was ultimately betting it. Is this a high confidence bet that we're making or is it a we're backing the trends and we're backing the overreaction at the 10. I don't know that we have a team that is in a winnable game. I think we're just getting like to your point, a team that has lost four games in a row, you mentioned that the 17 points, they haven't scored seven more than 17 points in a game since beating the Browns 27 to 14 on December 8th. Right. Meanwhile, the Ravens, they haven't scored fewer than 31 points or even lost since December 1st. So the reason this number is so big right now, and I agree, let's save some of the massive trends that that back the Steelers for Thursday show. But if you've listened to this show all season long, you know that like this matchup between Harbaugh and Tomlin favors the underdogs and Mike Tomlin specifically, he has historically dominated as the underdog in this matchup. So like this is such a disparity in public perception more than anything. That's why this number is so big. And you're alluding to it with the sort of the teaser protection and all that kind of stuff.
- [24:07]
Simon Hunter
And I've been someone that has just faded Pittsburgh in the playoffs these last couple years just because it's been like a Duck Hodges or Kenny Pickett. It's never been a quarterback I can believe in. I'm not saying I'm not, you know, saying I, I believe in Russell Wilson. He's the guy. This is, this is the type of moment, this is the reason they brought him in. This is a veteran quarterback in the playoffs who's had playoff success. You expect him to step up in this big moment. But to me, you're, you're saying what's your confidence level? It's, it's as high as it could be on a team that's lost four straight. It's. It really is all about their matchup. Like, if they're playing a legit good team, like say, the Bills, it'd be different. This isn't. That would be outside their division. This is just the two teams are familiar with each other. Where, like we said, it's. It always leans towards the dogs when these two teams play. And then it gets magnified. The fact that Lamar has one team that he really struggles with in his career, it's Pittsburgh. Like that. We talk all the time about that. It's a huge deal. So there's just certain teams that match up well against you that have your number. And I just believe in Pittsburgh team. So, yeah, I'm. I'm obviously confident in it. It's really all about the number like this, this reaching plus 10. I mean, again, like I said, I just can't help myself. That's way too many points, and it just feels like it's. It's an easy one that's going to come down to a field goal, and we're getting a ton of value on this Pittsburgh team.
- [25:20]
Chad Millman
So in that game on the, on the 21st, there's a couple games in the playoffs that are rematches from earlier in the season. The Vikings and the Rams as well. And. And I think that bears looking at. Because in that game on the 21st, it was, I think, 17. 17. Right. It was close through. It was close through three quarters. And then the Ravens went ahead in the last 90 seconds of the third quarter. And that's around when Joey Porter, you know, he tried to play in the second half. He couldn't. Right. Russell Wilson threw a pick six. And you sort of felt like after that, the Steelers needed to be perfect and they couldn't.
- [26:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [26:05]
Chad Millman
And. And also George Pickens did not play in that game. And I know, like, he was shitty last week against the Bengals. I don't expect him to be shitty every week. And I don't. That was like his first game back after several weeks out. You got to expect him to have some kind of impact here, too.
- [26:21]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, again, we get all the doubt on Pittsburgh. We understand why money is coming in so heavy and Joe Public is backing this Ravens team. It's just, you know, this is the type of spot we play, Chad. And you know, I always bet. I always say I bet playoffs a little differently. If this was regular season, obviously we would be on this Pittsburgh side. But no, it's just. I just love this number. So much for this Pittsburgh team.
- [26:46]
Chad Millman
One other thing I'll add before we get on to the next game is the Ravens are snake pick when it comes to procedure penalties, holding penalties, pre snap penalties. Those things add up when you're a 10 point underdog. You know, that's like we saw it over the weekend. Like the Ravens weren't covered in that game until the very last series when Derrick Henry, you know, busted it open for a long touchdown run. But they bite themselves in the ass with really bad penalties that start them off behind the chains or kill drives or bring back big plays. So that could be something that comes into play. If you're interested in tailing this Simon says pick on the Steelers Check out the special bet365 Quick Slip link in this episode Description Just one click from your mobile device and a Steelers Bet slip pops up in your bet365 app. Ready to bet? Check it out. It's. I love it. It's the best technology, really is. Denver at Buffalo Sunday game Buffalo's 8 1/2 point favorite Good afternoon everyone. This is Van Miller and the road to the super bowl goes through Orchard Park, New York. And it is the Bills looking to trade the cold and the snow of western New York for a trip to the Super Bowl. We discussed at eight and a half, we discussed liking Buffalo mostly. It was just the first instinct. Matt Mitchell came on and said he does not worry about the Buffalo Bills in the wild card. I don't worry about it either. I bet the Bills at eight and a half.
- [28:17]
Simon Hunter
Did you? I've, I'm, I'm on the other side. I know I've come around to Denver. No, I have. And it's really, it really is about Sean Payton facing this, this defense of Buffalo. I just, I can't get on my head how many points this is and that historically he has done well. And it's like maybe, maybe I am thinking too much, reading too much into the trends here with this one. But I'm just going through the matchup and it's like, Josh Allen, Josh Allen is going to get his, he's going to put up points and it's like, okay, now I'm banking on bone Knicks to drive the field multiple times and get me multiple backdoor touchdowns or whatever it's going to be because we already know the deal, right? This is going to be a January game in Buffalo. It's going to be freezing cold. It's this kid's first playoff start historically. Fade, fade, fade. Guys making their first starts and I I did really want to be on Buffalo. This is a team where, you know, I will throw them in teasers. I'm just going to avoid the spread if I need be. I'm just a little weary of this number being so big. Smart guys I've talked to at this point are just like, no, you have to take Denver. Like, this is the exact spot you hit Sean Payton. And Evan wrote in his article, it kind of backs it up, right? Sean Payton, he's on the precipice of doing some historical here. If he wins and covers this or if he covers this game, I believe it. Evan, he'll be 5, 0 as a road dog in the playoffs, which is rare air. So, you know, obviously the other times he did that, it was with Drew Brees, a Hall of Fame quarterback, but it's still. It was Drew Brees as a dog in the playoffs and Sean Payne had him prepared up to that moment. I think the same thing here. It's like, isn't this too many points for a Bill's defense that we've seen since week nine have struggled like, they're one of the bottom teams and they kind of got away with it at the end there, right? Because they had a Patriots and they had the jets and the Patriots again, like, not. Yeah, they didn't play anyone the final week, but it's like there, there was a reason they had kind of struggled this season against winning teams. And I can't get over it. Bo Nix, man, it was historical. I think he was 12 and 5 against the SP this season. One of the best rookie seasons we've seen him. And I believe Joe Flacco in 2008 had the second best or maybe the best rookie season against the spread. So he plays up to the potential line sets by the bookmakers. And in no world do I see the Bills losing this. Like I said, happy to take this down to two and a half, but covering this number with that bad defense, I think it's going to be a little more challenging than I perceived on Sunday night. I make this number seven and a half. It's eight and a half. I'll take the value on this Denver team, but it's. You can hear in my voice, not too much confidence. Chad, I have heard so much about Buffalo. I can hardly wait to get there. Snow. Snow.
- [30:53]
Chad Millman
I'm so surprised to hear this on Sunday night. We felt so locked in on the Bills.
- [30:59]
Simon Hunter
I bet him seven and a half.
- [31:00]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And like then Brandon Anderson in the podcast that he does, the action podcast that he does on Sunday nights with Evan after the Sunday Night Football game made this his hot read. He made it their hot read at seven and a half. Brandon Anderson made.
- [31:17]
Simon Hunter
I know. He took Bills.
- [31:18]
Chad Millman
He took the bills at seven.
- [31:19]
Simon Hunter
Okay.
- [31:21]
Chad Millman
A couple. Couple interesting stats from the show. Seven seats. There have been eight seven seeds in the four years since the NFL expanded the playoffs. Five of those eight lost their opener by at least 12 points. Wild card hosts that May that made last year's postseason playing a team that didn't 22, 10 and 1. Almost 70% over the past two seasons. So history tells us Denver's experience inexperience will play a factor.
- [31:54]
Simon Hunter
Bo, Nick's making his first start against a veteran like Josh Allen. Like, that's also a terrible trend. So I'm with you. It's. There's a lot to like about this Bill's team. That's why it's. I'm not banging the table here. It's just. I'm just weary of the number against.
- [32:08]
Chad Millman
Teams of the winning records this year. Bo Nix is 1 and 7 with a minus 37 point differential.
- [32:14]
Simon Hunter
Not great, Jim.
- [32:22]
Chad Millman
That was good. That was really good. That was really good. Well, listen, I'm bummed that we're not together on it.
- [32:29]
Simon Hunter
I might come around Thursday. I just. Yeah, I got bullied a little bit about, like, there's not too many games I had people talking to me about that I respect and this is one. They're just like, you and Chad sound way too confident on this Bills team. And it's what you just read there. It's like, isn't this the game that Josh Allen just destroys this Broncos team that overachieved this year, but no bone Knicks man covering machine.
- [32:52]
Chad Millman
So the wise guys talked about me again when they. They called you. They included me in the. In the conversation.
- [32:58]
Simon Hunter
You didn't come up. That I remember. I'll be honest.
- [33:00]
Chad Millman
Well, no, no, but you just said you and Chad.
- [33:03]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm saying they didn't. They didn't come up saying Chad's way off this week.
- [33:07]
Chad Millman
No, no, no, that's okay. But the fact that they just sort include me, I like to be remembered. I like to be acknowledged. The fact that they recognize me as part of this is fantastic. That. That's really it. All right. This game, Green Bay at Philadelphia. As my buddy Keith Jackson likes to say, the hyperbole is done.
- [33:34]
Simon Hunter
Now we can finally play the game.
- [33:36]
Chad Millman
We loved this game at three and a half on Sunday night and we assumed it would go up off of either Money or because Jordan Love News. After we were done with the show, it was pretty much. It was pretty clear Jordan Love was going to play. And this line moved from three and a half to five and a half between Sunday night and Monday morning. And I can't figure out why. Like, that is the window when it became clear Christian Watson was going to be out and wasn't going to be playing this weekend. But we knew Jordan Love was going to be playing and I don't know why it would get so high. Up to five and a half. Got back down to four Monday afternoon. Popped back to four and a half this morning. What are you hearing? What are you seeing? What do you know? It can't be the. It can't be Jalen Hurts. Like, Schefter tweeted out yesterday that Jalen Hurts was still in the protocol. But yeah, he's in the protocol because he has to be in the protocol until he has an opportunity to practice. And he hasn't had that opportunity yet. So we won't know his status until tomorrow and. Or Thursday because that's when he has the first chance to check off that last thing you need to check off to get out of the protocol, which is being on the field for a practice. So why. Why did it move up so much?
- [34:49]
Simon Hunter
You know, I'd just say from the top, like, sources I have in that building that I know for a fact are just locked in. They're in the room. Like, they're everything. They say it's 90 accurate and the other 10 they're giving me is just to throw me off the scent of some other bs. And basically it's a given that Hertz is all good. He'll be back. He could have played last week, apparently. And this is kind of Nick Sirianni playing mind games right now with Green Bay and I guess book.
- [35:15]
Chad Millman
That's what I figured.
- [35:16]
Simon Hunter
Me too. I honestly was a little scared because I did see that shifter tweet and then we just said. Just came back in my head of like, oh, well, they're not even scheduled to practice till Wednesday.
- [35:25]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [35:26]
Simon Hunter
So you can't be a little bit.
- [35:27]
Chad Millman
Of a red herring of a tweet. Like it was. It was clever by Shefty to get engagement and make a little noise. But it doesn't really mean anything.
- [35:37]
Simon Hunter
No. And like this is the time of year where I have to have his, you know, alerts turned on because it's such a small amount of games that any little detail like that, it's a huge deal that swings Lines like you just said, one of the more respected books all out in Vegas, they were one of the first to go to five and a half, which means they took legit, smart, professional money, heavy on the Eagles to go from four all up to five and a half. Books are gonna follow. Like right now we talk all the time books. They can kind of do their own thing in the regular season, in the playoffs. You basically need to follow everyone else. Like you can, you can maybe be different by half a point. You can't be off other books by a full point. Like there is none of that at this point. Like all the books are going to keep it really tight and a little bit of follow the leader, right? A lot of these Joe Public books that don't take professional money, they're going to follow the books that do take the professional money. Those are the people sitting the line. So our initial reaction of that three and a half, terrible line, like, it's crazy. Looking back on that, they opened at a three minus three and a half. You know, as. As good as that Green Bay team was heading into that playoff series last year against that Dallas team, it feels like it's the opposite this year. Like they just have so many injuries to key guys. I mean, even talking about Jordan Love, like, he's not fully healthy. He's banged up now. He's playing a team that, you know, Eagles are in a very unique situation here. They're one of the few teams, I believe, that have all 22 starters from week one still healthy, still playing in this, this matchup now and this, this late of the season coming off a rest week, Jalen hurts, he's rested. Someone who needed desperately, apparently. He was really banged up, lower body. He needed two to three weeks off. Like that was kind of a gift for them to be able to be in that position. So if you want to bet on the slow start, why not take Green Bay first quarter. Eagles have struggled all year in the first quarter. Green Bay has been pretty decent coming out of the gates early on in game. So if you're looking for an angle for some reason, take Green Bay. That to me is the angle. Like take them first quarter, maybe first half. This Eagles team all season, they, they are who they are. They've just been absolute juggernaut in the second half because of Saquon Barkley. And we've seen it now. This Green Bay team, they struggle against the run. They're just not good at stopping their run. And now they're playing against one of the best run running teams in all, to me, this number should probably get up to six. I remember we talked Sunday night. I was like, okay, if this number is four, four and a half, that feels right. I go back, run the numbers. It's like, okay, this number should be six. So the books to me, initial move to five and a half. That to me feels right. That feels warranted. There is still a book out there that you can get a four right now on this Eagles team. If you want to go grab that. I would, I would do it. If you want to back this Eagle side, if you're someone like that just wants to be patient and wait and take, Take Green Bay, because historically, I guess this is a pretty good spot to back Green Bay, right? This is going to be a little bit of an inflated number. You know, LaFleur as a dog, especially in the playoffs, has been pretty profitable. Wait, just wait. I believe this will not get below 4. This will keep going up. I think it could touch six by kickoff. So, yeah, I'm pretty dug dug in here on this Eagles team, especially at this number. But, you know, if you come in here on Thursday, Chen, this is six and you're like, hey, I'm actually really falling in love with this six. I could, I could, I could be supportive of you taking on the show, but I think right now the best value for your bang for your buck right now is taking this Eagles team either minus four, minus four and a half while you still can.
- [38:53]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I actually was. This was going to be my other call for exec decision and I actually, I actually thought you were going to do it for Simon says and take the Eagles.
- [39:05]
Simon Hunter
Nah, I got to go the gross way. I got to take the ugly dog.
- [39:08]
Chad Millman
But you mentioned. I'm glad you talked about the packers rush defense because we talked a lot on Sunday night about liking the Eagles for as much as we like Saquon. We talked about their defense. Like, their defense is so legit. Number one across the board in so many different categories, but like top five in every single defensive category for stopping the run. And we've seen how are the packers going to win games. They want to get the ball to Josh Jacobs early. We see it in every single game. The graphic. You could, if you could bet on the graphic about Josh Jacobs running in 2024, when it's going to appear over under two and a half plays into the packers first offensive series, like they. They want to run the ball that. And then they get to the second half and all of a sudden like the running game slows down and they stop scoring. Right. And so the Eagles, their, their line, their defensive line is so physical and they need so little help stopping the run from linebackers. It's just, it's, it's phenomenal to watch and it's scary if you're an opponent. Meanwhile, the rush offense is ridiculous and the packers rush defense is middle, middle of the, you know, middle of the pack. So, yeah, I'm surprised to hear you say, like, at 6, like now I want to go rush and find that four and hit it again. Even though I already got it at three and a half.
- [40:45]
Simon Hunter
I have, like, when that, when that news came out yesterday, that shifter tweet. That's why, again, I, it's part of the job. But I immediately was like, calling runners, getting in my car, driving to Philly again. Got, got more Pittsburgh down at Pittsburgh plus 10. Got more Philly down at minus 4. And even a couple books were like, I'll give you minus 120 if you want the three and a half. It's like, yeah, I'll take that. Give it to me. So it's, it's an interesting spot where I think even the books were, like, reacting to Schefter's news of, oh, Jalen Hurts might be out and he might not play this game. Now we've come in today and it's like every book is basically back up to four and a half. I think they realize, oh, that that was just bad information, that he's clearly going to practice either Wednesday or Thursday and he'll be cleared from concussion protocol.
- [41:26]
Chad Millman
So not bad information. It was completely accurate information, just totally selective and without context.
- [41:33]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, just clicks like that's he got what he wanted.
- [41:37]
Chad Millman
Simon. One of the most important things in the NFL playoffs is home field advantage. Because when we're home, we're at our most comfortable. And we thrive when we're at our most comfortable. By now, our listeners know I'm at my most comfortable upstairs and downstairs. When I'm decked out in Tommy John. And with a special sale for our listeners, you too can thrive at a comfort level previously unknown to mankind. A level of comfort only our friends at Tommy John can provided. With thousands of 5 stars review, we can all behold comfortable men and women across the globe raving about Tommy John living their best lives in a new year ahead. Simon. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?
- [42:31]
Simon Hunter
Pretty simple, Chad. Because comfort is king.
- [42:33]
Chad Millman
Comfort is king. Right now, you can shop tommyjohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order save 25% at tommyjohn.com/favorites. That's Tommy john.com/favorites as always. Where are my TJ's today? Put them on. Almost like, like I don't even think about it. It's a show day. They just automatically appear at the top of the pile. It's like Magic Washington and Tampa bay. Tampa Bays 3 point favorite at home. Your first instinct was playing this. You said you saw a couple two and a halfs on Sunday night. It did. Get up to three. You played the Bucks. I have no read on this one. Seems like two teams that have QBs who can make the heart attack plays, convert in the clutch. Two defenses that are not very good, especially against the strength of their opponent's offense. Seems like it's numbered exactly right. You know, if, if, if home field is three points, then basically they're getting the three points. I don't, I don't know what to do with this one. In fact, if home field is worth less these days, then the Bucks might be the mugs. The Bucks might be overvalued.
- [43:56]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I would say if, that. If you're just going lazy man, you just go, well, home field's only two. Two and a half values on commanders. I agree with that. But no, it's. To me this is just all about the commanders being overvalued. This, this line should probably be four, four and a half. The public just loves this commander's team. They're going to bet it. I know some professionals who actually love this commander's team and they're pointing to this, the safety position of the Bucks. They're like, dude, they're banged up like they're gonna be able to push the ball downfield. And I, I mean it goes back to what you talked about, Bo Nicks. It's like we have a rookie making their first start in the playoffs playing a veteran quarterback with a veteran run offense like this. This is such an amazing bounce back spot for this Buccaneers team. Like this is kind of the dream scenario. They just had their worst game they could possibly have against a divisional foe in a game which, you know, not saying they should have lost it, but the Saints are such a bad team. They did give it away. I think they were up 16 to 3 at one point and they lost that game. So you know that Bucs team, we've seen it when things are clicking like they beat the Eagles, they beat Detroit, like they've beaten some. I mean they dominated that Chargers team that we talked, that we loved like yeah, they seem to step up on these big moments against good competition and they play bad competition, they play down to the level and they struggle. It's. It's been a very up and down team and we know the deal. It's all about Baker. Chad, what, what type of Baker am I betting on here? That's why, like I looked at this to make Simon says, because I do love this team. I love this number. I see it going up, but it's the hesitation of Baker. It's like, I know it sounds crazy, but because he's had such a great year. But me and Chad have experienced it. Like we've seen games where yes, he'll throw for five touchdowns, he might throw for three or four picks and it's like he has to dig himself out of these insane holes. This ain't the team to do that against. Like Jane Daniels. You give him short fields, he's going to kill you. You keep giving him extra opportunities, he's going to kill you. And the biggest thing I'm betting on here is the trends and backing this veteran team in, you know, the Bucks, they're at home against a rookie making his first playoff start on the road. We know the deal. It's just teams are tighter and if this was what that bonix line is, which is like above a seven, yeah, no doubt. I would like to play the Commanders. Like that'd be a nice backdoor option. It's not. It's sitting on three right now and it's getting a ton of money, a ton of bets. This commander's team. So this feels like the nice spot. There's a couple spots here you can fade the public like if you want to back Green Bay. That's a nice spot to fade the Eagles in the public, but this one really jumps out to me of rookie QB making first start on the road. Rookie of the year. Couldn't be, couldn't be any more hyped what he is right now in this Jane Daniels kid going against a Bucks team that after last week it feels like everyone's just off this team. Like again, I was shocked to hear professionals being on their side where it just felt like such a layup bet to me. So yeah, I'll take the three and I pray, pray that more money comes in the Commanders and I get two and a half.
- [46:44]
Chad Millman
Look, you know what they say about Jaden Daniels. He is the Bryce Young of the NFC East. The guy can just flat out ball and he's not afraid. He's not afraid to face down the Rush?
- [46:57]
Simon Hunter
No, I already can't wait to bet him to win the NFC east next year. Because we know the deal, right? It's whoever won this year is going through hell next year. So Eagles being third in the division. Lock it up. Washington winning the division next year doesn't get much easier. But in this spot now, they're about to get humbled. This franchise.
- [47:13]
Chad Millman
You're all in. I feel like this will end up being like a must play for us. I have not bet this game yet. I just can't get it. But the way you feel about it, I'm obviously going to want to be all in with you on this game. Last game on the board. Minnesota at the LA Ramsey. The Rams are one and a half point underdogs. This line has moved from two and a half down to one and a half. Simon, can you name the last team to beat the Vikings before they lost to the Lions this past Sunday night?
- [47:59]
Simon Hunter
Was it that Rams 30, 21?
- [48:02]
Chad Millman
Rams. They lost on October 24, 30 to 20. Then they went on a nine game win streak.
- [48:09]
Simon Hunter
Vikings lost.
- [48:09]
Chad Millman
You mean the Vikings lost. Yeah, yeah then they went on a nine game win streak. The score was 30 to 20. You're correct. I saw this funny TikTok meme the other day like like the memory championships or something. And it's a dude who's married and an off camera announcer says to him can you name the score of the 1982 Mid Season Game between the Bengals and the Browns? And he can like name the game, he can name the score, he can name the leading rusher, he can name you know, how many interceptions. Kenny Schwab, whatever. Right now it's all like a joke, right? It's like can you name X, Y and Z about sports? Then it's like okay, your wife texted you this morning, she wants you at the grocery store to pick up. He cannot answer it. He's like can you put it in, in a sentence? Can you give me the context? He could not answer it. The fact you can remember the score 30 to 20 from October 24th. So many things have happened those three months and yet you can remember that exact story. Here's the real question, what can we learn from that game? Like other than the Bills game? It may have been the Rams best performance of the season. Right? Stafford went for almost 280 yards, four touchdowns. They didn't give up any sacks. Kyren Williams ran for just under 100 yards. Vikings sacked three times, 2 for 7 on third down. Darnold look rattled, right? So is there Like a takeaway of that game. And on Sunday night against the Lions, are we getting the Darnold who win in a nine game win streak, but basically beat up on bad teams and bookended it with losses to two playoff teams. So what's your take here?
- [50:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's definitely like we talked about. The playoffs come down the quarterbacks and this to me is another game of that. It's. I don't know what Stafford. We're getting Chad. I mean Stafford's last three games you put up 12 points, 19 points and 13 points. That was against a 49ers team that basically quit on the season. A Jets team that we know the deal and then Arizona. It's like, was he hurt? Did he need this bi week because Jimmy, Jimmy G came in and lit up that Seahawks defense. Like, you know, McVay is putting him in positions to succeed. He's just not doing it like it's, it's been a lot of questions about Stafford down the stretcher. Is he injured? Like, are we not getting enough info? And that's what I've been working here because automatically I wanted to be on this Rams team. Like this is a team that has been in the playoffs in these big moments with a veteran quarterback. And offensively he has all of his guys like he has Puka Cooper, he's got Williams in the backfield. Like there, there's no excuse here. And defensively we know, we saw the last time they played, they kind of know how to attack, you know, this, this offense in the Vikings. But you know, Sam Darnold, not that he gave away that Lions game, but we all saw the stat they kept putting up, right? This is a team that this season they scored touchdowns 60 of the times they went to the red zone. And that game against the Lions, they were over four at one point. And this is like over four. Like they're letting Sam Donald throw it every time. So he might have been, you know, one for. I believe it was 12 in the red zone at one point. Like completions. And the one completion was a little dump off like, you know, Justin Jefferson. Sure he had a drop in the back of the end zone, but we had guys online breaking down the film of all these easy plays that Kevin O'Connell basically drew up from where it's like pick play, open receiver coming down the middle. He wasn't seeing it. So are we, are we going to overreact to Sam Darnold? Because that was, you know, a playoff game. He knew the deal. That's the game where he wins. He gets that one seed. He's either getting franchise tagged by the Vikings or He's getting a $50 million contract per year from somebody. Like that was the moment and he didn't live up to it. I feel bad for him because you could see him wearing it in that game. Like he knew he was going through it. And still that Lions game, it was 10 to 6, he got the ball, start the second half and he did nothing with it. So like, that's the fear here is Sam is kind of running to what his problem was all along his career. It's the mental demons. Like he has their arms.
- [52:29]
Chad Millman
He's seeing ghosts.
- [52:31]
Simon Hunter
I don't want to say it, but that's what it felt like.
- [52:32]
Chad Millman
That's what it felt like on Sunday. It, Honest to God. And he's like, I'm rooting for the guy. I hope, I hope he gets a big contract. I'm all for sort of those kinds of stories. But it felt like he was seeing ghosts, right?
- [52:49]
Simon Hunter
And then you break down the numbers and what's going into this one, and it's like there's a reason this Rams Tim D. Beat them the first time around. Like Stafford against the blitz, he's pretty good against it. These type of unique cover schemes that Flores likes to run against a veteran quarterback like this doesn't usually work. It works on the young guys and inexperienced quarterbacks, but guys like Stafford have seen it all. It doesn't work. So, you know, if this, if Stafford hadn't been playing so bad heading to this chat, this would be another spot. I'd be like, Cameron, like, this is a great number. I've thrown it a bunch of teasers. Like getting them up to seven and a half right now against this Vikings team is such great value. And I get the public perception. I see why in the action app right now, all the money, all the bets are coming on this Vikings team because you know, they, they've dominated this outside their division this year. Right? But we've seen the one kryptonite to this division has been this Rams team. Like they took them down, they took down the lines. Like they do match up well against these teams. So, yeah, interesting spot here for this, this, this Rams team. I, I really want us to be heavy on it, but I, I want more info as we go. As long as I want to talk to more pros, see what they're seeing. But yeah, you can see I'm, I'm really excited about this Rams team. I think you're getting good value Especially at plus one and a half. This, this should be either minus one Rams or closer to a pick. You're still getting good plus value on this number. So yeah, clearly the value is on this Rams team.
- [54:08]
Chad Millman
Well, look, you mentioned what a veteran quarterback who CIT all can do against the Brian Flores blitz. Just look at what Jared Goff did. Every single time he blitzed Jared Goff threw it to that exact open spot and he knew he was going to get tagged. He did it, he made an accurate throw if it was 3, 4, 5 yards and it just, he kept chunking up plays, kept chunking up yardage and all of a sudden they're up 31 and 9. Right. Like just a couple of those times it comes through and you get burned. And that was the difference in that game, by the way. Teaser Rams from one and a half to seven and a half, Bills from Bills eight and a half to two and a half.
- [54:51]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, so that, that's that one that jumps out to me. And again, we, we obviously believe in the Steelers here. If you've already made Ravens teasers, you got ahead of the number. That's, that was a good bet whenever you made it. But at this point, you know, are you really gonna do a seven point teaser, get them down to three and you're gonna lose when it lands on three. So yeah, that, that to me, like me, that's why we're not even bringing up the Ravens here for our teasers. To me, the Bills, Rams here, that, that's the value jumping out to me on the board.
- [55:18]
Chad Millman
All right. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using a promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms Conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on The Action Network YouTube page 11am Eastern Thursday to talk our NFL wildcard weekend best bets. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate review, subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800- gambler at your job, do you ever have to deal with a nose roller?
- [56:42]
Simon Hunter
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Chad Millman
Luckily, you've got a team ready to help. Grainger's technical product specialists are fluent in.
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Simon Hunter
Maintenance, repair and operations. So whenever you want to talk shop, just reach out.
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Chad Millman
Call clickgrainger.com or just stop by Grainger.
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Simon Hunter
For the ones who get it done.