Podcast Summary: The Favorites - Spring Mailbag

Episode Information
Title: The Favorites - Spring Mailbag
Hosts: Chad Millman and Simon Hunter
Network: The Volume Podcast Network
Release Date: May 7, 2025
Description: In this episode of The Favorites, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve into the latest sports betting trends, NBA playoff intricacies, NFL home field advantages, rookie of the year markets, and engage with listener questions. The hosts provide expert analysis, share personal anecdotes, and offer betting insights to help enthusiasts navigate the sports landscape.

1. NBA Playoffs and the Zigzag Theory

Zigzag Theory in Action
Chad introduces his favored betting strategy, the Zigzag Theory, which posits that bettors should wager on the team that lost the previous game in a playoff series. This approach leverages the tendency of bookmakers to adjust odds based on anticipated betting patterns.

• Chad Millman [08:12]:
  “The zigzag theory, which is one of my favorite betting phrases, you know, as someone who loves the romanticism of the language and the Damon Runyon-esque phrases of betting, zigzag is as good as it gets.”

Recent Game Analyses
The hosts discuss pivotal games from the recent NBA playoffs:

• Celtics vs. Knicks: The Celtics blew a 20-point lead, leading to a Knicks comeback. Chad expresses frustration with the Celtics' strategy:

  • Chad Millman [05:16]:
    “...they had one play where Jrue Holiday cut to the basket, Tatum hit him, he got a layup that. That was like the only time Joe Missoula would stand on the sideline and they'd show him like doing his hand gestures and finger gestures, like he's calling a play.”

• Thunder vs. Nuggets: The Nuggets overcame an 11-point deficit, culminating in Aaron Gordon’s last-second shot to defeat the Thunder.

Impact on Seeding and Betting
The outcomes have altered playoff seedings, with top seeds like the Celtics and Thunder losing home-court advantages.

• Simon Hunter [03:49]:
  “...if you're not an NBA fan, you're going to be hearing about the NBA today because that's what people are going to be talking about because that's just something so rare...”

2. NFL Home Field Advantage

Diminishing Edge of Home Courts
Simon and Chad explore the current state of home field advantage in the NFL, noting its decline compared to historical norms.

• Simon Hunter [12:18]:
  “Home field advantage has never been lower in the NFL.”

Strategies to Maximize Home Advantage
They discuss actionable steps teams can take to optimize their home field benefits:

• Chad Millman [14:16]:
  “...create the kind of environment that Steve Ballmer has created at the new stadium arena that the Clippers play at, because he's got all the fans that are basically standing the whole time...”

Team-Specific Examples
The conversation highlights specific teams and their approaches:

• Buffalo Bills: Emphasized for their indoor stadium, aiding quarterback performance in adverse weather.

  • Simon Hunter [13:00]:
    “...Buffalo outdoors in the cold. My favorite game ever always be that Patriots game where Belichick ran the ball 50 times.”

• Los Angeles Rams and Chargers: Discussed as teams where home field advantage is negligible.

  • Simon Hunter [14:20]:
    “...the Rams and the Chargers, do they really have any type of home field? No.”

3. Rookie of the Year Betting Markets

Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY)
Chad and Simon review the current OROY markets, highlighting top candidates and their betting odds:

• Chad Millman [19:04]:
  “Offensive rookie of the year markets are up at FanDuel at least. Ashton Genty plus 270. Cam Ward plus 380. Travis Hunter plus 750.”

Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY)
The hosts analyze defensive prospects, debating the viability of candidates like Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter:

• Simon Hunter [26:35]:
  “Don't bet Travis Hunter for defense. There's no way.”

Strategic Betting Insights
Chad emphasizes the importance of selecting undervalued players based on team dynamics and individual performance:

• Chad Millman [28:28]:
  “...Travis Hunter, 10 to 1. Dude, come on, think about it...”

4. Favorite Stadiums and Memorable Experiences

Personal Favorites
Chad and Simon share their favorite stadium experiences and dream venues:

• Chad Millman [35:31]:
  “I'd want to go to Wembley for a football match. How do you not want to go to Wembley for a football match?”

• Simon Hunter [33:27]:
  “It's called Monument Park.”

Dream Venues
They discuss their bucket list stadiums, including Wrigley Field and Death Valley at LSU:

• Chad Millman [34:26]:
  “I will say the best one I've ever been in, not emotionally connected, has to be Death Valley at LSU.”

5. Listener Questions and Personal Stories

Cleveland Browns Quarterback Debate
A prominent listener question revolves around who will be the starting quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, with options including Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dylan Gabriel, and Shador Sanders.

• Chad Millman [44:47]:
  “Shador Sanders is coming in. He's going to fight for that job. He's going to win that job.”

• Simon Hunter [45:45]:
  “I mean, how do you not bet Flacco? It just feels like he's the type of guy who's played the offense before, knows what to do...”

Personal Anecdotes
The hosts recount personal experiences related to sports and life:

• Chad Millman [39:23]:
  “...when I was writing the Odds, which was the best selling book I did about sports betting... the saddest food you could have is the Cinnabon on the way to your gate.”

• Simon Hunter [38:44]:
  “Whenever we have a bad losing day on this show... I will door dash from Cinnabon and I will get a Cinnabon.”

6. Saquon Barkley Season Markets

Betting Against Saquon Barkley
The hosts express skepticism about Saquon Barkley breaking the season rushing record, citing historical data that favors betting against players who have already surpassed certain benchmarks.

• Simon Hunter [41:08]:
  “...all of it’s gonna be peak value at this point. It’s going to be an easy bet for most public betters.”

• Chad Millman [41:30]:
  “...breaking news. Sovereignty, winner of the Kentucky Derby, will not be running in the Preakness.”

7. Breaking News and Updates

Kentucky Derby Update
Chad briefly mentions that Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby winner, will not participate in the Preakness.

• Chad Millman [42:38]:
  “breaking news. Sovereignty, winner of the Kentucky Derby, will not be running in the Preakness.”

8. Concluding Remarks

Chad and Simon wrap up the episode by encouraging listeners to engage with their content across various platforms and reminding them to gamble responsibly.

• Chad Millman [46:48]:
  “Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly.”

Notable Quotes:

• Chad Millman [05:16]:
  “What play are you calling? Everybody knows the only play is we're going to shoot a step back three after dribbling the clock down to five seconds left in the 24 second clock.”

• Simon Hunter [12:18]:
  “Home field advantage has never been lower in the NFL.”

• Chad Millman [08:12]:
  “The zigzag theory is as good as it gets.”

Conclusion
In this episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide a comprehensive analysis of current sports events, betting strategies, and personal insights. Their discussion on the NBA playoffs, the evolving significance of home field advantage in the NFL, and the intricacies of rookie awards offers valuable perspectives for sports enthusiasts and bettors alike. Engaging personal stories and listener interactions add depth, making this episode both informative and relatable.