Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd – "The Favorites - Super Bowl LIX Best Bets"
Release Date: February 6, 2025
Hosts: Chad Millman, Simon Hunter, Brandon Anderson
Guest: Evan Abrams
Presented by: bet365 and The Volume Podcast Network
Introduction and Current Betting Lines
Chad Millman kicks off the episode announcing that lines for the Super Bowl are shifting towards the Philadelphia Eagles. Simon Hunter elaborates on this movement, noting a significant shift in the betting landscape:
"Last week, lines went from one and a half to two. This week, lines are moving from one and a half to one."
[00:30]
Brandon Anderson briefly interacts, indicating the light-hearted nature of the show before diving deep into betting strategies.
Eagles vs. Chiefs: Analyzing the Current Betting Trends
Simon Hunter discusses the surprising trend where professional money is favoring the Eagles over the Chiefs, despite the latter's strong performances:
"We're seeing more that the public is on the chief side and more professionals are lined up taking the Eagle side."
[04:00]
He presents robust statistics supporting the Chiefs' dominance, especially highlighting Patrick Mahomes' exceptional performance under pressure:
"Mahomes has played 18 games at home or under neutral field. 16 and two straight up. His losses, Joe Burrow and Tom Brady."
[05:00]
However, despite these impressive numbers, professional bettors are leaning towards the Eagles, influenced by their overall team strength and respected money influx.
Dissecting the Mahomes Effect
The hosts delve into the concept of the "Mahomes Effect," where Patrick Mahomes consistently elevates the Chiefs' performance beyond conventional metrics. Simon Hunter emphasizes:
"Mahomes doesn't lose, he just doesn't lose."
[05:00]
Chad Millman discusses how traditional power ratings struggle to quantify the Chiefs' playoff prowess, suggesting that Mahomes and Andy Reid are redefining expectations:
"The metrics that we all use to measure things don't quite work in a playoff setting when they have different rules."
[21:00]
Betting Strategies and Prop Bets
The conversation transitions into specific betting strategies for Super Bowl LIX. Brandon Anderson highlights various player props, notably focusing on Xavier Worthy's potential impact:
"Xavier Worthy is getting about a third of those [quick passes] for the season. Last four games alone 16 and a half EPA added on quick passes."
[31:00]
Simon Hunter and Chad Millman discuss their respective bets, including taking the Chiefs' money line and considering under bets on pass attempts for Mahomes.
Defensive Play and Betting on Defensive Touchdowns
Chad Millman introduces the idea of betting on defensive touchdowns, citing historical data where defenses score in approximately 38% of Super Bowls:
"In 58 Super Bowls, 22 defensive touchdowns. That's almost one in every three Super Bowls that we're getting a touchdown."
[25:00]
He suggests aggressive betting on either team’s defense to score, especially when paired with a team’s victory for enhanced payouts.
Future Predictions and Super Bowl Odds
Brandon Anderson shares his predictions for next season, favoring the San Francisco 49ers based on their strong offense and Robert Saleh's defensive leadership:
"20 to 1 Niners is my first Super Bowl pick for next season."
[42:00]
Evan Abrams corroborates these insights, adding nuanced bets such as Kareem Hunt to score two touchdowns and Saquon Barkley to remain under specific rushing yard totals.
Key Takeaways and Final Bets
The hosts consolidate their betting strategies, emphasizing the value in under bets and cautious optimism towards the Chiefs' unique advantages:
-
Big Balls Bet of the Week: Under 24.5 points in the first half.
"We're going with the under as our big balls bet of the week."
[45:00] -
Prop Bets:
- Xavier Worthy: Over 5.5 receptions and anytime touchdown.
- Saquon Barkley: Under 112 rushing yards.
- Kareem Hunt: Two touchdowns at 10 to 1 odds.
Conclusion and Responsible Gambling Reminder
The episode wraps up with promotions for sponsors and reminders about responsible gambling. The hosts express their confidence in their Super Bowl bets, particularly favoring the Chiefs and under bets, while acknowledging the unpredictable nature of Super Bowl outcomes.
"Evan, I think some would say your value to this podcast is enormous."
[60:00]
They encourage listeners to stay engaged and tuned for post-Super Bowl analysis.
Notable Quotes:
- Simon Hunter: "Mahomes doesn't lose, he just doesn't lose." [05:00]
- Brandon Anderson: "Xavier Worthy is getting about a third of those [quick passes] for the season. Last four games alone 16 and a half EPA added on quick passes." [31:00]
- Chad Millman: "The metrics that we all use to measure things don't quite work in a playoff setting when they have different rules." [21:00]
- Brandon Anderson: "20 to 1 Niners is my first Super Bowl pick for next season." [42:00]
Key Topics Covered:
- Shifting Betting Lines: Analysis of current betting trends favoring the Eagles over the Chiefs.
- Mahomes' Impact: Exploration of Patrick Mahomes' exceptional playoff performances and their influence on betting strategies.
- Defensive Betting: Insight into betting on defensive touchdowns and their historical prevalence in Super Bowls.
- Player Props: Detailed discussion on specific player performance bets, including Xavier Worthy and Kareem Hunt.
- Super Bowl Predictions: Future outlooks for next season’s Super Bowl contenders, highlighting the 49ers.
- Big Bets: Strategic high-stakes bets, emphasizing under bets and defensive plays.
- Responsible Gambling: Emphasis on betting responsibly amidst the excitement of the Super Bowl.
Useful for Non-Listeners:
This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of Super Bowl LIX betting strategies, focusing on shifting odds, key player performances, and innovative prop bets. Whether you're a seasoned bettor or new to sports betting, the hosts offer valuable insights backed by statistics and expert opinions to inform your betting decisions for the biggest game of the year.