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- [00:00]
Chad Millman
Foreign.
- [00:09]
Simon Hunter
Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am live from my Tommy John home studio and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [00:29]
Brandon Anderson
Hello, Chad. How we doing?
- [00:31]
Simon Hunter
Getting closer, brother. And as we speak, as we record, lines are moving and not in the direction we thought they would. Last week. As we speak, lines are moving in the direction of the Eagles. Last week, lines went from one and a half to two. This week, lines are moving from one and a half to one. You're seeing it, a bunch of Jersey books. It also happened at a big Vegas book. Very interesting that lines are moving in the direction right now of the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm glad I can get the Chiefs at a cheaper price on the money line or on the number. Fantastic. Today is our super bowl best bets episode with our favorite director of research. Evan Abrams is going to join us at the end of the show as he always does. We'll also bring in hot reads specialist and Evan's partner on the Action Network podcast Sunday version, Brandon Anderson. We will of course discuss our foxhole, our Tommy John Big balls. Simon's biggest bets. We're going to play some scooch roulette. All that jazz bets are rolling in. As I said, lines are moving. Decisions need to be made. As our Volume podcast boss, Colin Cowherd.
- [01:49]
Evan Abrams
Likes to say, there's a sea of money out there.
- [01:51]
Simon Hunter
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania. Virgin and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Okay, it's Thursday, last Thursday of the season in which we get to hear how the wise guys are responding to our conversations. Lines move based on what we say. The pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do sharp calls.
- [02:55]
Brandon Anderson
Hello?
- [02:55]
Simon Hunter
Who's there?
- [02:56]
Brandon Anderson
I'm talking rain ring, telephone ring.
- [03:00]
Simon Hunter
Somebody Said, baby, what you doing?
- [03:04]
Brandon Anderson
Yeah, sharp calls is only one game. It's. It's pretty insane how much. It's just so much opinion, so many. Everyone's got the answers right, Especially when you're talking professional betters. They already know the answers on the test. But this week, honestly, it started out, it was basically everyone I knew was taking a position on the Chiefs and the under, and a couple of the smarter betters took the Eagles at plus two. And, you know, we talked on Tuesday show, I think even Sunday night, like, okay, I get why they would take that early number, but I expected most professionals to be on the chief side, and it's actually gone the other way. I'm seeing more that the public is on the chief side and more professionals are lined up taking the Eagle side. I think it is what we talked about, right? It's most guys that do models are going to have the Eagles as the better team across the board. So it's not that shocking. I mean, our view of it is we agree, we think the Eagles are the better team across the board, but the two most important positions, the coach and the quarterback, the Chiefs do have an advantage there. So, yeah, it's. It's been pretty wild. Like a lot of the pros. I know, Chad, they've been, you know, taking this Eagle side, but it's not like they're hammering it heavy, right? It's not like that where they're really taking a standard because I think most people view it as. There's not a ton of value in the number itself, right? If you like the Eagles, a lot of guys weren't taking the plus one. They were just taking the plus 110. Now you've seen that that number is gone, right? Most books now are down to plus 105. Even flipping a couple books now are at minus 104 for the Eagles. So, yeah, it's. It's interesting seeing that number move. And obviously that's professional money moving that number. That's not Joe Public moving. And same goes for that under. Like, I wanted to give out the under here on the show today. Still going to do it. We've seen that 49 and a half just disappear. Like, I've been looking all across every book, it's gone totally. The highest you can get now is 49, which is still good value. But when we talked last week, I thought it would go the other way. I was like, hopefully it gets to 50 by the time we do our next show. That's not the case. Right. Most people that had Respected money came in on took the under. So as you sit here right now, it seems like respected money eagles in the under. I think me and you know the deal, right? Disrespected money, the same money that the two weeks ago came in heavy on the bills. The bills literally went from a minus or plus two dog to a pick them by kickoff against the Chiefs. That number steamed before kickoff and that's respected professional money. Looks like they're trying to fade Mahomes once again. Chad. So pretty interesting. They're. They're taking that stand where I think me of the same opinion. It's like it's easy money. It's easy living, taking my homes and not stressing about it. So I am shocked to see that so much respect and money is coming on this Eagle side.
- [05:39]
Simon Hunter
It just makes no sense to me. It's just astonishing that someone in this day and age, given everything we know about Patrick Mahomes and how he performs, everything we know about Andy Reid and how he performs, everything we know about Steve Spagnolo and how he performs, we have a very decent sized sample set of data that indicates how these guys perform in high pressure situations when the stakes are the highest. Whether it's end of the regular season to clinch a playoff seed, clinch a first round buy to clinch the number one seed in the AFC to clinch home field advantage to Clint, say trip to a trip to the super bowl to clinch a trip to win the Super Bowl. Like Mahomes doesn't loose, he just doesn't lose. Let me, before I bring in Brandon Anderson, let me just read a couple more stats that we talked about last week. But they are worth repeating if only because this line is moving in his direction. January, February. Mahomes has played 18 games at home or under neutral field. 16 and two straight up. His losses, Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. We are right now being asked to bet Patrick Mahomes essentially straight up to win this game. If you throw in November and December, he's 44 and 6 straight up in just the playoffs. He's been an underdog or a favorite under a field goal eight times. Eight. No straight up and against the spread. Mahomes has trailed in the fourth quarter of ot, fourth quarter or overtime in nine total playoff games. He's won six of those games, forced OT in two of those games. Astonishing. Brandon Anderson, talk to me.
- [07:26]
Chad Millman
No one joke, no one is offering.
- [07:28]
Brandon Anderson
You action like this. It's the gambling experience of a lifetime. And it's my way of saying I.
- [07:36]
Chad Millman
Understand men like you.
- [07:38]
Brandon Anderson
I Know what you want, I know what you need. This is where you belong.
- [07:41]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I mean, it's really hard to get away from it. Just coming down to Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, who do you like to win the game and who do you like to win the game? If it's close late, either Pat has the ball and I like the Chiefs or Jalen has the ball and I like the Chiefs. And that's the problem is if it's close late, I'm gonna like the Chiefs either way. Jalen Hurts away from home has not been good in the playoffs. Andy Reid on rest 29 and three straight up with 13 plus days of rest with either Patrick Holmes or Donovan McNabb. Like all the trends line up this way. Like it's going to be billed as Mahomes versus Hertz, of course, because it's the quarterbacks and it is Mahomes versus Hertz, but we already know what Mahomes is going to do. To me, it's not Mahomes versus Hertz. It's Spags versus Hertz. And that's why I'm on the Chiefs as well because I just haven't trusted Jalen Hurts down the stretch for this team. I haven't really felt like I trusted him even in this playoff run. And I do trust with an extra week to prep, especially that Spags are going to find some answers. He's going to dial up some blitzes. Jalen Hurts loves to roll right. That's going to be something that I think Spags will be ready for. I think he's going to mix up the coverages. Casey plays a lot of man. Herz is great against man, but not good against zone. I think we're going to see a lot of kind of mixed hidden coverages. And I just trust even as good as Ph. D. Has been, as good as Fangio has been, I, I trust any one off setting. What we've seen time and time like this is the Mahomes Reed thing that we've seen. But it's Spags too. And it has been this whole way. I know that's something you guys keep talking about as well. And I just think he, he's kind of the MVP for this game to me because I don't trust Jalen Hurts against Spags up against Patrick Mahomes.
- [09:21]
Simon Hunter
Well, Simon, I got two big questions for you. One, would you like to respond to Brandon's Jalen hurts insults? Not trusting Jalen hurts. I know it's very sensitive topic. I don't even like to. I don't like to criticize Jalen hurts anymore because I know it makes everyone in Philadelphia very upset.
- [09:45]
Brandon Anderson
Well, you just. You would talk nonsense, Chad. At least Brandon here is coming with something to latch onto, some sense of reason. But I view it as. It's a bend on break from Spags, like the last time they played in the Super bowl. Hurts through for 300 yards, had four touchdowns. So, yes, the Spags run a great defense, of course, but he didn't break. That was the key to that game. Like, they eventually, in the second half, made the right adjustments and won the game because of a punt. Like they held against Herz. Siri punted. That was the game. Like, that was all the Chiefs needed to get in front in that last game, the time they played. And that's the type of scenario we have here where it's like, you know, Spags, he won't mind giving up the yards. It's all about in the red zone. If he can stop the Eagles in their red zone, bottle them down, they can win this game. That's how they will win this. Because we already know the deal, Chad. Like, the more I break down and look into this game, the Eagles are so much better than the Chiefs across the board in every position, basically. It's like incredible how well built this. Is that how he's done this year? Like, he basically nailed every little pick, every, you know, bringing in linebackers, ended up being all pros. Like, that just doesn't happen in football. So when you really break it down, like we said, I get where the pros are coming from, betting on this Eagles team. But me and you have gone through this, Chad. We've lived in the moment where the. The Chiefs are never the better team, but they are the best at playing chess and football. Like them playing you and the clock and then the fourth quarter, that's where Andy Reid and Mahomes shine. So like we always talk about, if it's. If it was three points, if we were getting plus three, me would have been happy to take the Eagles. But with Mahomes and Andy Reid under that key number of three, if Mahomes is under that number or he's a dog, you don't overthink it. You don't overanalyze it. You just take the number. That's great value. So it's the same thing here. It's like, you know, the more I break it down, I'm so glad we did that Tuesday show last week, because at this point, that would be hard for Me not to be on the Eagles, but I keep reminding myself that's. That's the sucker move. Like you're having too much time, you're overthinking it. We get it. The Eagles are the better team. They don't have Mahomes. And that's always the difference. I joke with you coming to the playoffs and said, if you wanted to win a Super bowl, you either need a ton of luck or Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have both. They have a ton of luck and they have Patrick Mahomes. So it's just my model can't quantify it. It's. It's just one of those things. It's the human intuition, someone that watches football and someone that just knows how this sport is, and it's the Tom Brady effect. It's like these guys, your model can't compute it. It's just the human element of it. So, yeah, that's where I'm at with Mahomes. It's like I've been looking for reasons to take this Eagle statement. I keep coming back to, who do you trust? In the fourth quarter, it's going to be Mahomes and Andy Reid. So, yeah, don't overthink it, people.
- [12:18]
Simon Hunter
Well, that's what's so interesting to me is that the Mahomes effect is why this line opened where it did. Because if you go back, Brandon, like last year at this time, we're talking about the Niners and the Chiefs, and the Chiefs are two point underdogs and everybody has the Niners power rated as the better roster by about two points. This year, everyone has the Eagles power rated as the better roster. And the Chiefs open at one and a half and two. And now it's finally moving in that direction. Some people are the bookmakers, at least are trying to quantify that Mahomes effect, even if someone else has taken the bait.
- [13:03]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I mean, I think I noted, you know, we came on the, the podcast right after the NFC Championship and AFC Championship, and it's even before we got Chiefs or Bills playing out, we're going to have the same matchup. Far superior roster or far superior quarterback. That was going to be the decision in the Super Bowl. Even if it had been the Bills, it was going to be the same sort of setup, was, okay, do you want Josh Allen or do you want everything else on the Eagles? And, you know, in this case, you get Josh Allen plus you get the other things, plus you get Andy Reid and you get Spags and everything else. And yeah, it's Hard to quantify, especially when the line is right around zero and it's like, okay, those half points and points aren't quite as valuable right around there compared to if it was getting to near three or getting to where it's key number spots. And you know, it's more valuable now for moneyline play. So maybe that's probably the pivot instead to get some value out of the movement. And especially as someone that will be betting the Chiefs waiting for some of this money to push toward Philadelphia and get a little bit better price. An extra 5, 10 cents on the Chiefs. Thank you. I appreciate it. I appreciate any line movement in this direction. But yeah, to me, I think one thing that we need to factor in despite the the Eagles roster strength is very clear. The line, the weapons, the defensive talent. I think one key for me, Philadelphia's had such a soft strength of schedule this season. You can only beat the teams that are in front of you. But do you guys know they've only played all season, including the playoffs, still four games against a top 12 DVA offense this or DVOA defense this entire season. And so we don't really trust. What will the offense do for the Eagles in particular? They've I think only trailed something like four minutes in the fourth quarter in the last 13 games. Well, that's great. That means that you're a really good team and winning a lot. But you might trail against the Chiefs and now what's going to happen? What's going to happen? Jalen hurts when you actually have to go do the thing and go win the game in the big moment. Now look, he did the thing two years ago and we kind of get to the spot where Eagles two years ago, 49ers last year and now Eagles this time. It's like, okay, you hear a lot of people that are just, just take the Chiefs, just take Mahomes and if you're on the other side, and I have to admit, I've been on the other side both the last two Super Bowls. You find yourself getting creative. You don't want to just take the Eagles. You're like, well, Eagles, but first half. Or we were talking before he came on, what if I could bet Eagles first 58 minutes. Like we're all terrified of Mahomes and I think it should be telling to us as batters that one side feels confident just taking the team and the points and the number, whatever it is. And the other side is like, well, like I did last time, Philadelphia halftime and full time. And I was like okay. My numbers say I like the Eagles, even though I want to bet on Pat. And if I do like the Eagles, I'm probably going to like them if they're leading at the half because they've been such a good second half team like they have been this year. And so I kind of talk myself about the way there. They're up 10 at the half. They still didn't win anyways because Mahomes, because they found a way late. So I think it's telling that you see a lot of smart batters betting on the Eagles, but betting creatively to still get away from the money line and the points because we're so afraid of what the Chiefs and Mahomes have done late. There is just something unquantifiable about 11 and 0 and 1 score games, about making those plays and about having frankly maybe the best ever do it down the stretch, being able to come up with something.
- [16:44]
Simon Hunter
Well, Simon, you're a professional better who seems to be going against your brethren in quantifying it, or not exactly quantifying it, but taking it into account when you're making your bet. Whereas the money is moving from professional betters in the direction of the Eagles, who I love the Eagles. Power rated higher. Why are professional betters being so stubborn and not recognizing the brilliance and clutchness of Patrick Mahomes?
- [17:16]
Brandon Anderson
They're also playing the odds too. I don't want to make it sound like these guys are idiots, like they're just playing the mathematical number. Like, you just read those stats, Chad, it's not going to keep going that way forever. Right? We know, we know that things, especially our line of work, they always break the other way. My view of is okay, but what if he's the exception? Like, that's my whole issue with it, where they, where they keep bringing up the historical data and everything like that. It's like, do we have any historical data to back up Mahomes here? Like nothing he does makes any sense. We've already talked about this ad nauseam. But like, you know, he is someone that just raises to the level and. And things always just break his way. We I joked about with you in live chat, if I had a superpower, my superpower would be luck. I my whole life always been lucky. I'm one of those people and I think mom's the exact same way. Like to me, they were going to lose that Bills game. He needed his defense to step up and make a stop. That wasn't the momes were used to. Right? It's usually him controlling his own destiny. Not there like they, that the Bills, if they would have got a couple first downs, gone down the field, got their touchdown, that game was going to be over. But it played into Mahomes, right? The defense did step up when they need to. They did get the stops and the first time all season he was able to score over 30 points. Like it's just the way it is. None of it makes sense. So I do think it's interesting the fact that they are stubborn where me and you, we learned our lesson with that Ravens game last year. Like that was really enlightening to me of just it doesn't matter if it's a horrible matchup for Mahomes and he's going against one of the best teams I've ever seen. That Ravens team was last year. It didn't matter. You overcame it with a horrible team and they end up winning a Super Bowl. The same thing could be said for him this year. It's like we know they're not that great of a team when we talk like they have an awful offensive line. They somehow went 15:1. Like he just overcomes all these things. So I'm right there with you. Like, you know my, my view of this Eagles team is, you know, yeah, sure, they've had a pretty easy path. I mean both Super Bowls they made it to in the last three years. They need only need to beat a rookie quarterback and their conference championship to make it. Mahomes had to beat Josh Allen and Lamar. It's like we are not the same. Those are totally different world. So I totally get that viewpoint. But I do think it's interesting that, you know, coming to the season, anyone you talk to at a higher grade and review on Jordan Love or Stafford and he basically Eagles basically beat those two teams by double digits. And we all heard the noise coming to this, right? Jane Daniels. People are viewing him as the best quarterback in the NFC right now. And he got absolutely rolled in that game against the Eagles. He put up 23 points. So this is a defense that have stepped up. Every quarterback they've faced, they're now going against the best quarterback we've ever seen, arguably. So can they do it one more time? We know the Dan the Fangs defense, right? He actually matches up pretty well. Well with Mahomes just because he only rushes four. But in those games we, we never saw Fangs have a good quarterback on the other side. So we know he's over eight. But those we talked about, those numbers are a little skewed. Evan helped us Break that down, that it's not as overwhelmingly terrible as you think it would be. So I, I, I know why pros are betting this Eagles team, Chad. But like we joked, we've learned our lesson. As long as we're getting Mahomes with Andy Reid as under our three points, me and you are not gonna overthink it anymore. And I'm so happy because I'm not gonna lie. Chad. I was worried you were gonna try to zag on this one, but no, we both came to the dark side. We're both on the Chiefs.
- [20:34]
Simon Hunter
No, but what's interesting is you mentioned the regression and I was actually talking about this with someone yesterday, which was we're so dug in on the Chiefs, are we not accounting for the possibility of regression? Brandon, at what point do the numbers become so big that regression isn't the norm, regression is the anomaly? And have we hit that?
- [21:06]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I mean, I think we have to account that, that, you know, there is always the exception proves the rule. And it certainly seems like Mahomes, Reed, the whole Chief's thing have become the exception that proves the rule. And I think too, even betting against regression, you bet against regression, you know, on a futures ticket for the whole playoffs, or you bet against regression on an entire regular season ticket, you don't necessarily bet against it in one game because now you're trying to catch the falling knife. And how do we know if regression came this game? Maybe it does. Maybe the Chiefs go, you know, 0 for 5 on fourth down in this game or something. Or maybe The Eagles go 5 for 5 in the red zone and 4 for 4 and fourth down, like, you know, fumble lock, all those things. That's why we watch the sport. That's why it's a fun sport to watch and bet on because the ball is oblong and weird stuff's going to happen. But at some point you create your own luck. And it sure seems like somehow the Chiefs keep creating their own luck. Like they're up at the luck rankings every time, of course, but. All right, at some point, are they breaking that formula too? Like, is it just always going to come up? Patrick and Holmes? That feels like is starting to look that way. And I think too, as we look at, you know, the, the, the metrics and the, the power ratings, I think we have to have learned by now also that that formula just doesn't work for the Chiefs in the playoffs. It is just not representative of what they are. They're saving plays for the playoffs. They're in fact probably purposefully Burning bad plays or plays that might be bad to get them on tape in the regular season to set them up for the playoffs. Spags is saving his best stuff. Like we talked about, that Josh Allen play, the big one where they got three guys coming off the edge and it was, everyone was, was upset about, well, should he have thrown it to Shakir underneath? You know, he hits Kincaid in the hand. Should he have kwa all the Bills guys said we didn't know that that blitz was coming. Like they set up that one all game long, all season long. This was a different thing. They waited all year for one play when they needed it because they're the Chiefs and they can because they know they're going to be here again and they're. They're playing a totally different game than everyone else. They're not fighting to get down to the end. They're going to be at the end anyways. So the whole thing is a chess game toward the end. So their defensive metrics in October, November, who cares? Doesn't matter. It doesn't factor into how we have to think about them right now. Patrick Mahomes, 10th best EPA or whatever it was for the season doesn't matter. Now it's Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs and in the super bowl. And that's the version we have to get. And so somehow that too is like unquantifiable in a power rating system, in a setup of what the Chiefs are, is that they're playing a different game than everyone else. And the metrics that we all use to measure things and try to capture stuff like this just don't quite work in a playoff setting when they have different rules. And it's kind of like the Patriots too, that they have their own rules, they did their own thing, and it somehow found a way to work.
- [24:06]
Simon Hunter
It's also harder for regression to come when three different factors, meaning Andy Reid, Steve Spagnolo, and Patrick Mahomes need to underperform on the same exact play at the same exact time in the same exact circumstances. That's just not likely to happen. And those are the three factors that create this alchemy that is, as we've said, unquantifiable.
- [24:34]
Brandon Anderson
That's been my argument, though, what you just said. I said I believe that you're right. Regression is coming. Once those pieces are gone, okay, like Mahomes, this will come back around. That has to be once Andy or Spag someone, something has to change dramatically for this team to have regression in that type of way. And that's that's been my pushback against it. Same thing last week. Like guys who are hamming the Bills because they love that Bills number, that side. I kept pushing back against it saying you're overthinking this. Like that regression, you can't quantify it to these one or two games. They're just. It doesn't work that way, especially with Mahomes and you know, so far we've seen it just, it's, it's hold true. He's eight. No, when it's under three points in the playoffs, it's just you can't wrap your head around it. All you got to do is not overthink it and just bet it.
- [25:14]
Simon Hunter
Brandon, we have a note in here about betting on super bowl defense. Explain yourself.
- [25:20]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I always, always want to bet on defense to make big plays in Super Bowl. For whatever reason, defenses just score touchdowns at this way outlier rate in the Super Bowl. Last super bowl matchup, Nick Bolton returns a fumble. Jaylen Herz just dropped the ball. Basically. Nick Bolton returns for a touchdown. And don't forget later in the game, we thought he returned a second fumble for a touchdown that's returned in that game. Otherwise he's MVP in that game. There are in 58 Super Bowls, 22 defensive touchdowns. There's been at least one in 19 out of 58. So that's almost one in every three Super Bowls that we're getting a touchdown. Is it random luck? It might be 50. It's not a big sample size, but to me it's defenses that are over prepped and scouted so that they kind of know when to jump the pass lane and know to go for something. And it's teams emptying the tank. You may as well throw that pick six because you're just going to lose super bowl anyways unless you give it a shot. So to me, you want to bet on defense, touchdowns somehow in the super bowl because this is just a go to every year now. This year I think it's a little less likely. These teams are both very careful with the ball. They're not turning over a lot. But that's of course true of all super bowl teams. That's how you get to the super bowl and somehow this thing keeps happening. So depending on the book you play, pay attention how you're betting it. There's defense, touchdown, there's defense, special teams, touchdown. Special teams a little more muted this year. I don't need to pay to include special teams. Usually these are interceptions. 11 out of 13 defense touchdowns since 2000 have been interceptions, not fumble recoveries in this game. Maybe a little bit less so because we're going to get a lot of running, of course, from Philadelphia. And the key thing for me, those 22 defense touchdowns, all but three came by the winning team. So what I want to do is I'm going to get aggressive. I always love to give up some outs, get aggressive and get the better number. The Chief's defense to score touchdown in a Chief's win is plus 950. Or you can do Eagles same thing. Eagles defense touchdown and Eagles win plus a thousand. Simon, you talked about like what's the edge? What's the way the Eagles find a way to win? Well, very often in a game like this, the way is the ball bounced. Weird. We picked up a fumble, we ran it in. Oh look, seven points free for us. Turns out that's a pretty good away flip, a coin flip outcome. You can bet both of those. Chiefs defense touchdown and their win. Eagles defense touchdown. Their win together is basically like an implied +437. That's 19% likely that outcome has happened. A defensive touchdown by the winner 28% of the time. So that's a pretty huge edge in your favor and I think too defensive MVP is in play. We've had that almost one in six Super Bowls. 15.5% of the time. You can just bet any defender MVP at mini books, 15 to one or I think you want to sprinkle some long shots. Nick Bolton, guy that could have won it Last time is 400 to 1 at one book. Nolan Smith, a guy that I know we've talked about as a sackmaster against Those bad tackles, 300 to 1 linebackers are three of the last four this century that have been a defensive MVP. I just have to have some piece of defense. I'm going to bet it every single super bowl because it hits more often than it doesn't and the numbers don't reflect it.
- [28:34]
Simon Hunter
What do you think of that, Simon?
- [28:36]
Chad Millman
I love it.
- [28:36]
Brandon Anderson
I mean honestly, is this the type of game where that obviously could change the whole game And I like if your team's going to win, they get defensive touchdown. We saw the last time they played. That's how the Chiefs basically won their game. Right? The Eagles played a perfect first half, but did they because it was 21 to 10 that seven points mattered in the end. Like, you know, Mahomes woke up the second half and that was all she wrote. So yeah, that's, that's an interesting plan. I was trying to think Chad, who the hell was the last special teams? Was it Devin Hester? Was that the last special teams touchdown against the Colts?
- [29:07]
Simon Hunter
That seems like that's 18 years ago.
- [29:10]
Brandon Anderson
I know. I was like, is it Percy Harvin? I was trying to think, who the hell in the super bowl didn't. It's like, Brandon brings up a great point here. That's like a dumb bet to make. Special teams with the. With. With the defense, you. You might as well get rid of that. Just go strictly defense. Just because unless you're a Hall of Famer, apparently, you're not going to score a random ass touchdown in the Super Bowl. I mean, even Kadarius, Tony got close against the Eagles, but he didn't score. I don't think.
- [29:31]
Simon Hunter
I do think. I do feel like Percy Harvin scored a touchdown, but I can't remember who it was for.
- [29:37]
Brandon Anderson
It'd be Seahawks, I'd guess, right?
- [29:39]
Simon Hunter
Oh, right.
- [29:40]
Brandon Anderson
Yeah, you're right. I can't remember either.
- [29:42]
Simon Hunter
I think he did that.
- [29:43]
Brandon Anderson
But we're just making a point. That's how insanely rare it is, a score of special teams.
- [29:48]
Evan Abrams
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one Mirror Ball trophy from Dancing with a Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight based in Nashville? We're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit everything. Because we got lots to say. I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but, like, all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like, it's all colored. They changed it and the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest. It was a little pink.
- [30:31]
Brandon Anderson
There was something sentimental when you like when you send it. It was like, do I send the heart now?
- [30:38]
Evan Abrams
I don't like the color edition.
- [30:39]
Brandon Anderson
Extremely pink.
- [30:40]
Evan Abrams
Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [30:47]
Simon Hunter
Brandon, we've talked a lot about Xavier Worthy this week. I personally parlayed Xavier worthy under five and a half receptions and Xavier worthy anytime. Touchdown. Thanks to Dr. Nick Giffen. That was four to one. Simon. Why are you laughing at that?
- [31:05]
Brandon Anderson
Just because I just love you bringing this up every show. You're just a wild man every show. Absolute wild man every show. I got props I've even given out. Yet you're still bringing up props. You've talked every show.
- [31:14]
Simon Hunter
Well, I know Brandon has a. Hasn't. Has some thoughts on Xavier Worthy.
- [31:19]
Chad Millman
Yeah, I think Xavier Worthy is in this particular matchup. I think he could be the key to the Chiefs offensive attack. So the whole point of Fangio defense, take away the deep, take away the middle. This particular defense takes away tight ends and running backs really well. Running back screens obviously is the Andy specialty. That's a lot of stuff they're taking away. But that really sets up to exactly how the Chiefs play, much to our chagrin. We want to see Patrick Mahomes do the stuff he used to do, but he stopped doing the stuff he used to do because half the defense started doing Fangio defense and all the quarterbacks had to start doing the short stuff and eating that way. So Eagles play zone about 2/3 of the snaps. They play a lot of COVID four and cover six. More cover six than any human in the NFL. The way you beat that scheme is in the flats. You beat cover three another thing that you'll play a lot of with horizontal stretches. Okay, well who am I throwing to in the flat or getting my speed guy in a horizontal stretch? That's Xavier Worthy. All game long, 62 of his 70 catches this season have been either short or behind the line of scrimmage. PFF grade 90 or better on those average seven and a half yards after completion. That is the whole thing with Xavier Worthy. Now the Chiefs took a while to realize that they thought he was Tyreek Hill for the first 12 weeks of the season and his he had a 12 yards ADOT then after that 6 yard a dot they totally changed how they've been using him. Week 13 forward and I've been betting his overs throughout the playoffs on receptions. In the flats alone his EPA per play is 99th percentile. Like this is the best weapon right now maybe in the league or close to it. Getting it out on quick passes. The Chiefs are the number one team on quick passes where Xavier Worthy is getting about a third of those for the season. Last four games alone 16 and a half EPA added on quick passes. So I never would have guessed this guy who I'm about to mention would show up on a Super bowl show. Wandale Robinson for the Giants to me is a key name to look at here. Comparing to Xavier Worthy, just a similar but clearly worse style player in both Giants games this season he had six catches and 10 catches. They didn't go very well because it's wand Robinson, but he had more catches and more targets than Malik neighbors both those games because that's how you attack this defense. So I love Xavier Worthy in this game, last five games, he's averaging 6.4 catches a game. He's averaging 46 yards after the catch. So I don't necessarily want to go yards here, but I think big plays, a chance to get into the end zone, get that touchdown. I love the anytime touchdown bet for the last five we know he's going to run the ball a time or two. A lot of people I know are betting the over five and a half rush yards he's had airi and at least in 14 games a season he's had five or more yards rushing in 11 of those 14. So I think that's a good way. And then my favorite way is I'm just on the volume receptions. So over five and a half reception, that's still plus money for Xavier Worthy. That's gone up in the playoffs, but I think it's still a good price. And then you know me with the escalator, seven or more receptions around plus 225, eight or more plus 425. I can't quite get there on MVP because same thing with Travis Kelce who's throwing the ball on all these. It's still going to be Pat getting the credit for it. So I think if you want an MVP, look for Worthy. The the upside is maybe he runs it in or maybe a special teams or trick play. Okay, well bet that there's a different way you can play it. Bet like a longest rush or some other creative way to do it. Patrick is too big of a deal to go mvp. I do notice though his his longest reception prop is around 21 yards or so. So a Nick Giffen special here for me. Negative correlated bet. Over five and a half catches, under 21 longest reception last week or against the the Bills. He had that long catch that was probably not a catch, right that the rest of cider was a catch. Other than that play, he's not gone 21 yards or more in like seven games. So these aren't really huge long plays. They're just 0 yard passes that he's ripping around the end for 12 yards, 15 yards, 9 yards over and over. So I think that's something the Chiefs will attack a lot and you can get over on the receptions under on the longest catch. Is +411 because it's negative correlation. So I think just lots of fun ways to play Xavier worthy in this game.
- [35:36]
Simon Hunter
Simon, what props of yours I want to hear should we be discussing right now?
- [35:43]
Brandon Anderson
My favorite one is definitely both teams that have successful 4th down convent like so basically you need the Eagles convert a 4th down Chiefs Converter 4th down. Both these teams I feel like are going to go for higher risk. Like they know what's at stake here especially Sirius heard all week about that punt he did take last time they played and not going for it on fourth down. No chance he doesn't go for it. And it was minus 120 when I told you this morning Chad. It's already up to minus 125. So that's, that's a number that's moving on. Beth365 another one we already talked about with Chris Raybon. Either team to win by exactly three points. I think it's fun. It's plus 400. Yes and we, we just talked about like we think the Eagles are going to you know perform well first half. We just don't trust them full game. If you like that bet like if you just want to take the Eagles first half me Chad already said we we like the Chiefs full game. I've made this Ben. This is another number that's moving. The Chiefs were. The Eagles Were Eagles win first half Chiefs to win the game was plus 650 on bet365. It's down to plus 550 now. So that number as well is moving. So that's another way you're going to try to attack this where you know Mahomes I believe it was Stucky or maybe it was Chris gave out amazing stat that he is over four in his career in first half against the spread. So that's another way you can play where you know he gets down by 10 points in the first half he ends up winning these games Mahomes. So that's, that's a fun value bet if you're not alive better you can't attack that. This is another way to play that market. Just take the Eagles first half cheaps to win the game. That's a fun plot.
- [37:11]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Stuckey gave out Eagles first half I think plus one and a half. So not exactly a win but plus one and a half. In the Action Network podcast Sunday six pack you mentioned Super Bowl MVP a couple of times Brandon. Both with defensive players and Xavier worthy. Why you wouldn't want to bet him for mvp? Do you have MVP thoughts that are not Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.
- [37:37]
Chad Millman
Do I have MVP thoughts, Chad? I always have MVP thoughts. Quarterback, obviously is who you want here. Most of the time, 57% of all MVPs are quarterbacks. Thirteen of the last 18 have been just the quarterback and the winning team, 72%. So about three out of four times, basically that. That's just what we do. We know that already, right? If it's not a quarterback, actually, defender is what you want most. That's why I already gave that one out. Ten defenders, nine receivers, no tight ends. Notable in this one because Travis Kelce. Only seven running backs too. Last one, Terrell Davis, 1998. It's been a minute and a few since we got a running back. So to me, I mentioned not Xavier Worthy, but you got to start at the top and kind of work your way down here. I'm not going to bet Patrick Mahomes to an mvp, even though he very clearly is the heavy favorite to an MVP. It's +110. The chiefs, you can basically bet -1 now at +110. So in order for that to be the right way to bet the Chiefs, I know we all want to sneak in the extra 20 cents of value. Patrick Mahomes has to win MVP 91% of all Chiefs victories for that to be the right bet. And I know it feels like he's 100%, but he's not 100%. Like you can literally go through the schedule this year and say, okay, who would have won MVP that game? And he wins MVP, like probably 14 or 15 of the games, which is 85%, which is a lot. And it's still not 91%. So you shouldn't bet Mahomes. There's too many, too much randomness there. I personally can't bet Saquon. He has been, I think, the Eagles MVP in something like eight to 10 games this season. Way more than you would expect a running back to be at, including, I would say all three playoff games so far. But at plus 280, he's going to be MVP. Over half of all Eagles wins for that to be the bet. And I know that's what it feels like with him, but no running back. We're over the last 26 years in a running back winning Super Bowl MVP, and I'm supposed to bet that the Eagles win the game and over half of the time he's MVP to me, the way I would bet MVP here, even though I'm betting Chiefs win the Super Bowl. I think Jalen Hurts MVP is the right play. And I think it's actually a great way to invest in Philly and sort of hedge against my Kansas City bet. Because I think the Chiefs win the super bowl because of Jalen Hurts. But if I'm wrong about the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, I also think it'll be because of Jalen Hurts. I think it'll be because Hertz did the tush push, got the touchdowns, got the scrambles. But I think because he did what he did last time in the super bowl, frankly, he would have won MVP clearly, if they won that game. Oh, yeah, he showed up as a passer. He was plus 140 in the Super bowl last time. Now he's plus 380. That's because Saquon showed up and soaked up a lot of that value for MVP. But quarterbacks win MVP 72% of the last 18 years. He only has to win MVP 43% of Eagles wins for this to be the right bet. So to me, I think that's just, it's just value. Even though I said this is the reason I'm not picking them. I think you can be wrong about something and sometimes it's okay to bet of what if I'm wrong about this. And I think this is a great way to possibly be wrong about it longer down the board of the other weapons. I like Devonte, 66 to 1. He was 33 to one last time. I think that the the Chiefs are going to adjust and play more zone than they usually do. Devonte is the zone beater. He's had 99 yards all three games against Spags. So I, I kind of like that. Just a dart throw late and I mentioned those defenders, but to me it's three main guys you're starting at. It's Saquon, it's Herz, and it's Mahomes. And only one of those numbers I think is the right number to play.
- [41:07]
Simon Hunter
Someone argue, not me, because I'm not crazy. Some would argue that super bowl was really the last time Jalen Hurts had a good game.
- [41:18]
Chad Millman
I mean, it was probably his best game he ever played.
- [41:20]
Simon Hunter
Right, Simon? Simon, did you hear what I said?
- [41:23]
Brandon Anderson
Yeah. You're a Chicago fan. You don't know what good quarterbacks look like.
- [41:28]
Chad Millman
He does now. They got Ben Johnson.
- [41:31]
Simon Hunter
It is interesting, you know, when you put the odds in that context for Saquon. I bet if you ask the average founder, there have been studies about this, about sort of decision making and rationale that people's memories of things, influences and and has more weight than it actually does in real life. And I bet if you went to most fans and said was Saquon the MVP of an Eagles win 50% of the time, people would say oh yes, for sure this year. When in reality he wasn't. That's a fascinating. It is. Why are you laughing? It's fascinating.
- [42:14]
Brandon Anderson
Oh God. Could we get to Evan?
- [42:20]
Simon Hunter
Not yet. Brandon. Brandon, before you go, give us one future for next season. I love your hot reads on the Action Network podcast when you're giving us the two bets you're making right away seven days in advance. We are seven months in advance. Give us a future. Yeah.
- [42:42]
Chad Millman
Here's the 2026 Hot Read a full year in advance. So I have an article just went up@theactionnetwork.com on who is next year's Eagles, who's next year's Chiefs, next year's Commanders. And this is one we've done a few years in a row. Last year in this article I picked as next year's Ravens, then the Philadelphia Eagles 22 to 1. My first super bowl bet a year ago because they fit a formula of okay, they started out 10 and 1. Last year they were coming off a Super bowl birth and they just fell apart late. But the system was there, right? We knew what would work. And what worked this year, obviously is elite defense, devastating rushing attack. Okay, so who are next year's Eagles? My first super bowl bat for the new year, San Francisco 49ers. It fits the Eagles formula. Kyle Shanahan has been in the NFC Championship game five of the last nine years. There is no Patrick Mahomes in the nfc. But Cal Shanahan might be as close as we get over in the NFC to just showing up year after year. Since they acquired Christian McCaffrey, they've been an offensive juggernaut and nothing changed this year. Nobody magically learned how to stop them. They just stopped being healthy ever. McCaffrey played four games, I missed 10, Trent Williams missed seven, Purdy, Debo Kittle, almost multiple games. So the offense is going to be great. We know that about them. And then you get the Fangio part here. Robert Salah coming back from the jets coming home to get rid of Nick Sorensen, the failed defensive coordinator. They Salah's defense has been allowed top five fewest yards five of the last six seasons. That defense under Salah is going to be way better. And we saw even this year, as bad as the jets were laughing stock Salah left, that defense fell apart like they were still decent defense. He leaves and they just completely went to shambles after that. This year the Niners even in a season from hell still finished top 10 offense, still finish almost top 10 defense by DVOA. They went 2 and 6 and 1 score games. Flip those results that we know are mostly elect ribbon unless you're the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Just flip those results. They win the division at 10 and 7 even in the year from hell. To me, the Niners are right there with the top five. They're priced at number six but kind of a distance six at every book. They to me are are probably the favorite in the NFC right now. Knowing what we know about Salah on the defense and everything on the offense, they'll be right in the mix. 20 to 1 Niners is my first Super bowl pick for next season.
- [45:10]
Simon Hunter
Wow. I like it. It's exciting. Check out all of Brandon's picks for Super Bowl 50 on his Super Bowl Best Bets episode of the Action Network podcast with Evan Abrams, who we will get to shortly. We got a little bit of work left to do along with super bowl articles out now@actionnetwork.com thank you Brandon Anderson, great work. Simon, guess what?
- [45:35]
Brandon Anderson
What?
- [45:36]
Simon Hunter
It's time for the big balls bet of the week. Our last one of the year presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. Great games start with great underwear and Tommy John makes the greatest look. We've talked about the Chiefs. We've talked about the money line. We've talked about the side. The money line was my exact decision. The side was Simon says we're going with the total. It's moved down. It was about 50, 50 and a half, then 49 and a half down to 48 and a half. A lot of places you can still get a 49 at bet365. Simon, this is a big balls bet because I think we're both a little bit antsy about it.
- [46:26]
Brandon Anderson
Yeah. And it's really the probably the most heavy of the game for splits wise of the the public versus professionals. Right. It's just only professionals. The only people I've talked to especially walk on the sports books talking to different fans, especially Eagles fans. They're just like, we put up 55 last week. We're getting at least 40 against this chief defense in the back mine. I'm just like, yeah, that's not how this works at all. So yeah, I get why the public is so excited about it. But me and you talked about it's A key number still 49. Please grab that while you still can because the fear is right now that this, this professional money is going to keep dropping this down to 48 and a half. 48. So we're crossing some key numbers here. You want to get that 49. It's, it's a big deal to get it.
- [47:08]
Simon Hunter
The one thing that worries me is we see so often with these Super Bowls, things go crazy in the second half.
- [47:18]
Brandon Anderson
Yeah.
- [47:18]
Simon Hunter
You know, the Chiefs have been down 10 points, seven points, whatever, in multiple Super Bowls, low scoring Super Bowls 10, three, whatever it was. And then they come back and in the second half, five, six touchdowns by both teams. How do you feel about under 24 and a half in the first half?
- [47:38]
Brandon Anderson
I don't mind it. I mean, I like it and I bet it. And you know, Dr. Nick came on here, talked about how the Chiefs second half unders have been a cash cow these last two years and we've been betting that as well. So I'll be honest with you, Chad, it's never fun doing it. We're just playing the numbers and this is a long term winner. Like the biggest sweat of my life. We literally hit the under last year. A game that went to overtime. We hit it by half a point.
- [48:01]
Simon Hunter
That's right.
- [48:02]
Brandon Anderson
So that might be peak for us. It's usually, in my opinion, won't be that close. Like you to hit this over, you're gonna need a ton of luck on both sides in the red zone. Like both these teams make their money, make a teams kick field goals on the same side. Eagles have been inconsistent this year in the red zone. Same with the Chiefs. Like, I mean, even the playoffs. Chad, how many times are you losing your damn mind? When Hertz would take that sack and get out of field goal range and they're punting. You do that against the Chiefs, you're dead. Like you're not gonna, you're not hitting it over. So I just think it's an overreaction by the public way too much. There's still a ton of value on this under in my opinion.
- [48:37]
Simon Hunter
All right, we're going with the under as our big balls bet of the week. Simon, what a wild season. We've had so many ups and downs since week one, a scant 23 weeks ago. And right there, holding us up, supporting us every step of the way. We're two crucial parties. First, our tens of thousands of incredible listeners, but even more important, our dozens of pairs of Tommy John underwear. By providing us with the most comfortable underwear, shirts and Casual Essentials the grind of the NFL season never broke our joyful spirits, nor clouded our clear eyed decision making all season long. We told you, if you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support. And it's true, we did have the balls and they did have our support. So if you've enjoyed yourself this season, do yourself and your loved ones a favor. Let the unrivaled comfort and flexibility of our beloved sponsor Tommy John into your life. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?
- [49:58]
Brandon Anderson
Because comfort is king right now.
- [50:01]
Simon Hunter
You can shop tommyjohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn.com favorites that's tommyjohn.com.
- [50:12]
Evan Abrams
Favorites hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,000 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else you can find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I I texted you and you texted me back. Now I don't know if you have the update, but like all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like it's all colored. They changed it and the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm going to be honest, it was a little pink.
- [50:57]
Brandon Anderson
There was something sentimental when you, like when you send it, it was like, do I send the heart now?
- [51:03]
Evan Abrams
I don't like the color edition.
- [51:05]
Brandon Anderson
It's extremely pink.
- [51:06]
Evan Abrams
Let's have a lot to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [51:13]
Simon Hunter
Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting? Simon knows I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell you about Edge Boost, the financial platform that pays you cash back to wager. Edge Boost is an online bank account that pays you for every deposit. With the Edge Boost Visa debit card, you receive up to half a percent cash back on all your sportsbook daily fantasy site and casino transaction that transactions. That's free money back in your pocket for doing what you're already doing. It's a no brainer. Plus your Edge Boost debit Card starts with a $250,000 daily limit and will never be declined for gambling activity. They've got built in tools to help you stay responsible and there are absolutely no hidden fees or minimum required balances. Stop leaving money on the table. Visit edgeboost Bet today to learn more and sign up. That's edgeboost Bet. I gotta say I used it, used it this past week. Not only was it super easy, but then I did get the cash back in my account. It was great. I was so excited. All right, foxhole, you know me, regardless.
- [52:29]
Chad Millman
Of what's going on, I'm a foxhole guy.
- [52:32]
Brandon Anderson
I commit to a team.
- [52:33]
E
I commit to a city.
- [52:34]
Brandon Anderson
I'm a foxhole guy.
- [52:35]
Simon Hunter
We're going with Saquon Barkley under his total rushing yards of 112. The number's been coming down. Raybon has this power, has this projected at closer to 106. Kerners at 110. I think a lot of the stuff if everyone listened to Tuesday we were talking a lot about leaning into under offensive yardage totals. We especially were looking at the under total rushing yardage total and we like obviously Saquon to go under 112. Simon also mentioned a really fun one. Both teams to be successful fourth down minus 125 now at bet 365. But foxhole is Saquon Barkley under 112 rushing yards. Simon, your biggest bets?
- [53:21]
Brandon Anderson
Biggest bets definitely in the under. That's my biggest position. I mean I joke with you Chad before it came on. Like I wish I could just take this week off because I hate going against my favorite team, the Eagles. But it's lining up that way. Pretty heavy on the chief side, pretty heavy on the under when it comes to the prop market. Definitely that fourth down one's a big one. Will there be a two pointer? I bet pretty heavy on and you know Chad knows my favorite bet is usually one offensive lineman score a touchdown. I didn't take it this year just because both these teams aren't haven't really been that style this season. Like the year we hit it with when it was McVeigh. Yeah, yeah we saw we kind of inside info that McVeigh had been practicing the two weeks leading up to that Super Bowl. I don't have any great tips like that but if you want to, if you want to bet any other court, any other player to make a pass attempt, I believe it's +260. That's always a fun one as well. So there's a Lot of fun props out there obviously. And as we get closer to game time, I'll try to tweet more out as well.
- [54:14]
Simon Hunter
Definitely. I am heavily invested in the Chiefs money line. And also Patrick Mahomes under 36 and a half pass attempts, which is basically correlated. If you think the Chiefs are going to win, it's likely going to be because they're holding a lead and not passing very often. All right, finally, finally, as Simon has requested, we are getting to Evan Abrams, our director of research. He's got a brand new article up on actionnetwork.com be sure to check that out. Super bowl specific. Evan, you get the last word, brother.
- [54:50]
Brandon Anderson
The last word With Evan Abrams.
- [54:54]
Simon Hunter
We're finished talking.
- [54:56]
E
What's up guys? I'm just going to start off the top here and note on something Brandon said and I hate to agree with him because I kind of do all the time, but we are podcast partners so it's okay. But the Barkley MVP odds is so fascinating. So each of the last 21 Super Bowls since 2003, which is when we have data, had QBs 1, 2 and odds. So Barkley would be the shortest odds and first to be one, two other than a quarterback, which is kind of crazy considering Marshawn Lynch, Lawyer Fitzgerald, Sean Alexander, all in that span. So fascinating there. My first note from our favorite Canadian, Mr. Galant. So in each of the Kansas City Chiefs, three Super bowl wins, four Chiefs one in each has scored a touchdown at plus 500 odds or higher. Mahomes 2020, Sky Moore 2023, Kadarius, Tony 23 and McCall Hardman in 24. So right now that actually leads a bunch of options. Hopkins, Juju P, Ryan Watson, even Chiefs defense are options. My bet, probably there would be juju. 4th most routes and pass snaps in the conference championship and actually fourth most routes in the playoffs for the Chiefs. He' getting just a lot of looks there. The other thing that's kind of crazy, Hollywood's a dot. Average depth of target in the playoffs is almost 20 yards downfield. So getting a lot of deep looks. So those are the two there. Any thoughts before I keep going. I got a bunch of bets here.
- [56:15]
Simon Hunter
My only thoughts are keep fucking going. I can't get enough of what you're saying.
- [56:20]
E
AC running back debate to me is a large discussion. So hunt out, snap Pacheco in each of the last four games, 4.1 yards per carry to 3.0 even percent of carries, 3 yards or more, 58 for Hunt, 44% for Pacheco. So I'm going to try to believe that Hunt's going to get the majority of carries here, which is going to go to these two bets. So two long shots, first to 20 yards in the game. Kareem Hunt is plus 450, which I think is intriguing. Obviously Casey starting out with the ball would be nice, but four first carry first quarter carries against Buffalo in the Houston game, they actually started with Pacheco, but he went minus 1, 6 yards, 1 yard and then he was done. And then Pittsburgh, which is the game before that, Hunt gets three first quarter carries, so I think him getting a few chunk plays, 4 yards, 6 yards, 8 yards to get to that 20 before, like Barkley is intriguing. The second bet is him to just score two touchdowns in this game. Everyone's betting on him to score one touchdown. He's. He scored a touchdown in four straight games. He's actually scored a touchdown in all six of his playoff games, which is getting close to a record. But look at this. Casey's carries inside the five yard line this season. Hunt has 17. The rest of Kansas City has 11. And then you think about just reliability. I mean, Pacheco and Hunt both haven't fumbled this year, but if you look at Hunt, he hasn't fumbled since 2021. So I fully feel like in this type of game they're going to rely on him. Andy Reid also loves him. He's a great story. I kind of see him getting a lot of love here. So two touchdowns at 10 to 1 is my other bet with Kareem Hunt.
- [57:54]
Simon Hunter
Nice. I like it.
- [57:55]
Brandon Anderson
Love it.
- [57:56]
E
All right, Saquon Barkley. So I'm looking at this at two different angles. Our discord's gonna hate me for bringing this out because they've actually been talking about this and I was upset that they brought it up, but bet365 has his longest rush attempt in the game. He was actually minus 105 like about two days ago. It's now up to minus 150 for him to have the longest rush attempt in the game. So even if Kansas City bottles him up and has like eight man boxes where he can struggle, the options for him to stay atop this market I just think are aplenty. I'll just. Regular season, he was 11 and 5 for just Philly in terms of having the longest rush in their games and 10 and 6 in the game itself. 2 and 1 in the playoffs are having the longest rush. And then if you just look at Philly's part of the field because Kansas City really struggles in that second level yards and open field yards like they get small chunks which I think helps play to this. If you look at Philly had 90 plays of 10 plus yards on the ground this year, 36. Everyone else but Saquon, 54 for Saquon. So I just feel like there's so many outs here. I still like it in the -150 range. And then the other prop which is a little bit contradicting, but I heard you guys say you like Saquon under his full game prop. I think a more interesting one is first half. It's 58 and a half in the first half this season. He has 11 rushes of 13 plus yards. Four of those 11 came just versus Washington. So to me I think this line is just a little bit inflated and I think we're getting a good price considering also he is a second half monster. Most carry, most rushing yards, most 10 plus yards all in the second half. And Casey not lately. They've been struggling with explosive runs lately, but only allowed 42 of at least 10 yards, which is the fourth fewest in the NFL all year. So I do believe Spags is going to focus on him which is going to help that early bet. And then I think he finds some longer runs to cash our first bet in the second half.
- [59:56]
Simon Hunter
It's.
- [59:56]
E
It's really going between two bets, but I kind of like the value on both.
- [60:00]
Simon Hunter
I like the value on everything you say, Evan. I think some would say your value to this podcast is enormous.
- [60:09]
E
I was worried when you guys are going through some of these bets to be on your side. This one unfortunately, which is. I have one more after this which kind of just backs up Simon, but this one's not with you guys, but it's just another angle. So it's called reversal of fortune. Mahomes is trailed at the half and all four of his super bowl appearances. Stuckey said that Simon said that earlier, but this year he's actually led at the half and eight straight games. So I believe the storyline each year in the super bowl of a Casey comeback just is a little noisy. Like obviously the Hertz fumble really helped Casey get back in the game last time. So I feel like Casey has had nine first quarter drives in the super bowl, five punts, two touchdowns, one field goal and a missed field goal. And the thing that I think is actually interesting, Philly trailing this year actually happened less plays than Kansas City when they run no huddle, second highest rate in the NFL behind the Commanders and they still run it at the highest rate in the NFL when they're behind. So I kind of feel like Casey wins the first half, Philly wins. The full game is seven or eight to one depending on the book. While that same bet if you flip it is six to one even. 550 for Kansas City. So I know everyone likes Kansas City to win the game, but I do feel like a strong Kansas City start, which has been different than we've seen before, and Philly figuring it out in the second half because think about this, Eagles have a rock bottom 40% pass rate when leading by at least a score. It jumps to 58% when trailing. So I do feel like they're going to run the ball when they're trailing and even passive even more and get back in the game. So I kind of like that price. It's between 7 and 8 to 1.
- [61:46]
Brandon Anderson
No, I think it's interesting take he has my, my view is the Chiefs basically. Not that the AFC doesn't have good pass rush, but he's basically every year he makes the super bowl he's facing arguably the best pass for us in the NFC, right? The Eagles two years and the 49ers and even that Tampa team had a great pass for us. So that to me also skews where it's like Mahomes goes from doing whatever the hell he wants against an easy pass rush in the AFC to being like, holy, these are really good, really good passers in the first half. And it takes him a little bit to adjust to it. So interesting view from Evan. Obviously it's a nothing trend, right? It's four games so I get his point of like it doesn't really make much sense, but I just love the angle of Eagles first half, Chiefs full game.
- [62:25]
Simon Hunter
All right, listen, this was our super bowl podcast. Thank you, Brandon. Thank you. Evan Simon and I are filled with immense gratitude for both of you and Gifford and Matt Mitchell and everybody who listened all season long. We are rolling with the Chiefs into the Super Bowl. We are on the under. That's our big balls. We will be back with our post super bowl wrap up after the game that Monday. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5, get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never Ordinary. At BET365 must be 21 or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions, restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page. Special time Monday afternoon, noon Eastern. We're going to recap this Super Bowl. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback as a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [63:59]
E
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