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- [00:00]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:30]
Justin Penik
What's up, everyone? It's Justin Penik from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week. On Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays, breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast and you will be glad you did.
- [01:01]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [01:06]
Jason Demers
Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [01:11]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
- [01:16]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in too, but we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking TV, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on Le Table.
- [01:25]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Vir and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:34]
AJ Stephens
$1.4 billion in NFL quarterback contracts. The untold stories behind the biggest deals in football history. I'm AJ Stephens, Vice president of Client strategy at Athletes first, introducing the Athletes First Family podcast, the Quarterback series. My co host Brian Murphy, Athletes First CEO and I are sitting down with the agents who have negotiated contracts for Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Tua Tugovailoa and Jordan Love. Listen to Athletes First Family podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [02:16]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by bet365, part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday Super Bowl 59 preview episode. We will break down the lines for the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles with our guest, Dr. Nick Giffen, predictive analyst at Action Network. We'll talk super bowl bets, his incredible luck rankings. Hi, Everybody.
- [02:47]
Bobby Bones
Hi.
- [02:47]
Simon Hunter
Hi.
- [02:47]
Chad Millman
Dr. Nick Simon and I will deliver our exec decision and our Simon says because we are on the super bowl schedule, reminder, we will wait and do our big balls. Foxhole Biggest bet Scooter Let next Thursday before the super bowl. As we do every year, we've got a full menu of super bowl betting intel for you over the next four episode. After today's betting preview episode, we've got our super bowl trend show with our beloved data maven Evan Abrams on Thursday. Next Tuesday, we talk all things super bowl props with Shawn Kerner and Chris Raybon. Then we'll wrap it up next Thursday with our final best bets episode of the football season, joined by Brandon Anderson, who has crushed it with his hot read bets on the Action Network podcast on Sunday nights with Evan. Exciting couple of weeks. Plenty to break down over the next few episodes. Live from Artanomi John Home Studios, I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:55]
Simon Hunter
Chad, how we doing?
- [03:57]
Chad Millman
I am so good. You know, I know you feel this way. You've got the Eagles in the Super Bowl. You've got massive futures on the Eagles and the Chiefs. It feels like you've thread the needle beautifully. I am still feeling a little bit relieved because the Chiefs and the Eagles matchup bet paid off for me after a relatively shitty year. It is amazing to me how different I feel in the 24 to 48 hours after something wins, you know, I know it's so stupid. It's not like I'm betting money that is going to change my life one way or the other. It's only about seeing the opportunity and then over the next 24 hours feeling good that I made the right decision, regretting decisions I made regretting decisions I didn't make, regretting decisions I had in front of me that I missed. Like, it's really what it comes down to for me. And I just feel better having gotten the matchup bet. I know it sounds amateurish. I don't know what to tell you.
- [05:09]
Simon Hunter
It is and it's not. It's also, I think it's because of this show, right? We know how huge of a show this is and how many people listen and a lot of pressure comes out. I wouldn't be lying to you to end the season going 5, 0 and 1 on sides feels pretty fucking good for your boy. So, yeah, I get where you're coming from. It's like, that's what we put all the work in for. And, you know, when it comes out and works, it's like, God, this is, this is the best feeling. But, yeah, I agree. The hardest part is you're already on to the next week. So I definitely enjoyed it, was excited for it. When we talked Sunday night and I literally woke up Monday morning, I was just like, well, back to work. And that's just how. That's the nature of this job. So I am really excited to dive into this matchup.
- [05:50]
Chad Millman
Let's get to it. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code 3Favorites, deposit $10, place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions, restrictions apply. All right. Kansas City, one and a half point favorite over the Philadelphia Eagles and Super Bowl 59.
- [06:40]
Simon Hunter
Pat Summerall here with John Madden. And all that buildup and all of this hoopla.
- [06:44]
Jason Demers
John, is it as big as it seems?
- [06:47]
Pat Summerall
I think it's bigger than it seems. And if you're one of these players or one of these coaches, it's the biggest thing in your life. And it's something that there are 30 teams in the league and there are 30 teams of players and coaches, and every one of them want to be here today. And then you say, how big is that? It's even bigger than that because it's not just getting here today, but it's winning today. And I think that the biggest difference in sports or the biggest gap in sports is the difference between the winner and the loser of the Super Bowl. The winner, you're world champion, they can never take it away from you. You'll never forget it. The loser, they just get thrown back in the pile.
- [07:23]
Chad Millman
The total is 49 and a half. The money line. Since the number so short, I do want to give that as an option. Right now, it's anywhere minus 125 to minus 130. I bet this as soon as it opened at Kansas City, minus one and a half. And Kansas City on the money line at minus 120. Simon. Simon. I'm making Kansas City on the money line. My exec decision.
- [07:48]
Simon Hunter
A choice between the unthinkable and the impossible. Now you have your orders.
- [07:53]
Chad Millman
Execute them. Executive decision.
- [07:57]
Simon Hunter
Already diving right in.
- [07:59]
Chad Millman
It's available. Last week, you beat me to the punch, so I felt like I had to get on it right away.
- [08:05]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I don't hate it. Obviously, it's been interesting, the movement this week, and that's what I can't wait to dive into because we can do like a mini sharp call here. Just about the early reads on, you know, what I'm hearing and what guys are saying. And we talked Sunday night, the line was moving to two. I thought we'd be sitting here to be two and a half. I don't know about you.
- [08:25]
Chad Millman
I did. I'm actually shocked. It's not a two right now.
- [08:29]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And I told you the, the hesitation to me was going to be everyone like me that runs a model. I would be shocked if they didn't have the Eagles as a small favorite. And, you know, coming into that matchup last week, I had the Chiefs as a favorite and really had a lot to do with. I thought, you know, Hertz was injured. I really did think that knee was a real thing. You had to throw that out. There clearly was no issue on the knee at all. I mean, he had three rushing touchdowns. I know two of them were tush pushes, but he had. He had another Russian touchdown, was called back on a hold that really didn't affect the play at all. So you should have two long rushing touchdowns. Need to not look like an issue to me. So definitely went back and looked. Break it all down. Do you have the egos as a minus one favorite here? So I do understand the respect from the, you know, heavy money coming in right now in the Eagles because you look at most books right now, it is Chief's money. And I know in the Action app it says it's right now it's all Eagles money. So I know, I know that could. Depending on where you're at and what, what books you use, it could fluctuate. But you know, a couple books I really respect right now it looks like the early money is coming in on this Eagles team. So, yeah, it's. It's pretty interesting that the, the professionals are taking this Eagle side and it looks like when you're looking at the ticket count that the public is doing, what me and Chatter probably gonna end up doing here and end up on the chief side because it just feels like the safer side. And we, we understand the Eagles are the better team. And I'm looking forward to diving into all these numbers. But you know, the Eagles, to pull this off, Chad, they are going to have to be historical because we've seen Mahomes now it feels like the book is out. Like if you don't kill him, if you don't, if you're not up double digits.
- [10:09]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [10:10]
Simon Hunter
With two minutes to go with the ball, you're somehow going to lose that game. We don't, I don't know how he keeps doing it. Like, he just keeps finding these ways to win. And the, you know, the calls go their way. Everything we can talk, we always talk about at the end of the day, they make the plays when they need to. Like Spags makes the right blitzkull when he needs to. And you know, this Eagles team, the more I dive into it, it is better than that 2017 team that Eagles won the super bowl with. And it's pretty easy to realize why. Eagles had an all pro quarterback in Carson Wentz go down. They had their all pro tackle and Jason Peters go down. Those are two major hits to their offense. And then defensively, you know, they had, they had a bunch of injuries as well. So this Eagles team is healthy. Like this is a team that might be getting Brandon Graham back. So it's, it's pretty wild when you dive into it. The fact that there are things the Eagles can do to beat this team. And I know people talked about, well, it's the Fangs defense, right. They match up well. You know, it's the Fangs defense basically rushes for. We know from the history that's, that's how you beat Mahomes. The only time we've seen him lose in the super bowl against Tom Brady was when he got pressured rushing forward. That Tampa Bay front was just incredible because we talked, I mean, you go back, listen to our podcast, we knew that game was going to be won in the trenches from the Tampa side because they're left and right tackle route for the Chiefs. So when you look at this, that's the edge to me for the Eagles. Right. If you're looking for an edge to take here, we, we know the secondary is incredible yet, I mean, Quinon Mitchell in the playoffs so far, 12 targets, he's given up four catches for 21 yards, two interceptions, a pass breakup. That's A rookie, Quinon Mitchell. That's incredible. Zach Braun, you know, could easily win defensive player of the year. He's had 26 tackles, three tackles for a loss, one force fumble, two fumbles recovered, one interceptions, two pass deflected. That's, that's insane that he's been playing that level. So there are guys in the back end that could be a difference maker. My whole point was to get in that. In Fang's defense, he doesn't. He just rushes the four. And if you go back historically, he is 0 for 8 in his career against Patrick Mahomes. He's never beat Mahomes. So it's like, okay, well maybe he's never had the guys. He set some pretty good defenses. It's just Mahomes is just Andy Reid and Mahomes are always one step ahead. So yeah, it's, it's really interesting breaking this game down with those numbers where it's like the Eagles have the defenders, but you know Mahomes going to have a counter for it. Like we talk, we joke. Chad, that play, I can't get over that rushing touchdown. He had to win the game. Even the Bills defenders talk about they've never seen that on tape before. Guess where that game, guess where that play was on tape. The Bills. They stole it from the Bills offense and ran against their defense. A Josh Allen play they ran on Patrick Mahomes and made Travis Kelsey blocker. So that was just my, my long wind answer. Getting to that. I'm, I'm trying to find reasons to back this Eagles team because it does come down the defense. But it's tough to find the silver lining here because Andy Reid and Patrick Mo always have a counter. I don't know if you feel the same way about that, Chad.
- [13:06]
Chad Millman
Dude, you're reading my mind. And it's so funny. Last year at this time we were looking at the Chiefs as two point underdogs, I think, and struggling with betting the Chiefs because we clearly thought the Niners had a better roster. They were better top to bottom, right. But we went with the Chiefs because you don't want to bet against Patrick Mahomes because Patrick Mahomes is a dog. And I would emphasize the stats we always talk about on Patrick Mahomes are not just as a dog, they're as a favorite of three or less or as a dog. So this is in that window. But I was thinking about this this morning. The comps are the same. I'm not betting against Patrick Mahomes, I'm not betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and Steve Spagnolo. This is a Hall of Fame trio who, when Andy Reid has had a vehicle, a vessel for his brilliance, like Patrick Mahomes, he has pretty much been unstoppable. When I'm thinking about this game, I'm in the office today, and I was just talking to the guy who runs our finance team, who happens to be a huge Buffalo Bills fan, and I said to him, we were talking about the game, obviously, from this past weekend, and I was like, look, at the end of the day, over the next two weeks, do I trust Andy Reid to game plan over Nick Sirianni and Kellen Moore? Yeah. Do I trust Steve Spagnolo to game plan over Vic Fangio? Maybe it's even. But Spagnolo has done it in the biggest games in the biggest circumstances, not just in Super Bowls, but that the way he disguised that blitz against Josh Allen on 4th and 5 was brilliant. Had it in his bag the whole game and held it until he needed it. Right. Do I trust Patrick Mahomes over Jalen Hurts? Yes. So, like, I get the roster stuff at the end of the day, the people who need to make the decisions when they matter most that I trust the most, it's going to be on the Chiefs.
- [15:21]
Simon Hunter
That's fair. And I do want to give flowers, though. I mean, I don't want to make this all just love for this chief side. Obviously, people know I'm a Dyer Eagles fan, tons of respect to this team. It's incredible with how he's built here. And Chad just said it like, I'm the same view. This is no doubt the best team of football. They have the best roster. Roster. And it all comes down to health, right? They've been able to stay healthy, and that is the key. We talk all the time to getting to this point in the season. And, you know, Jalen hurts. I mean, again, I love Chad. Chad went for being my. One of my best men at my Future wedding in 15 years, to being not invited. When he left out of his top 10 this past summer, I was so mad at Chad, I couldn't believe he did it. I felt betrayal because it just felt like the hate had gone too far with Hertz. And it carried over a little bit to the season because people wanted him to throw up, throw for more yards and score more touchdowns. And, you know, we've seen some amazing stats these last 24 hours on jalen Hurts. And I'm gonna read off a couple just because I want to put people in perspective of Just how high the bar is set for people sometimes. And it doesn't really make sense because it's like it feels like you're watching a totally different game. So last three seasons, including playoffs, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts. Let's compare their stats. Patrick Mahomes has 48 wins, 10 losses. Pretty good. Jalen Hurts 42 wins, 12 losses. Their total yards per game, Mahomes 290. Pretty impressive. Jalen Hurts 260. Okay. Mom's total touchdowns, 117. 43 turnovers. Jalen Hurts 121 touchdowns, 39 turnovers. So he did better than that stat. Passer rating, Mahomes 98.5. Passer rating hurts 97.5. Basically identical stats across the board. One is viewed as the greatest quarterback ever. One is not a top 10 quarterback to Chad moment. So that's what I mean there. It's, it's tough where I get the hate, but you just go through all these stats and it's incredible. Jalen Hurts is the eighth quarterback in NFL history reach multiple Super Bowls in their first five seasons. He's joins Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Kurt Warner, Troy Aikman, John Elway. Okay, maybe Russell Wilson won't make the hall of Fame. Everyone else I just read on that list is a Hall of Famer. So it's like I get the hate and the doubt, but there this is the team and the quarterback that I do think could pull it off. But this is a long winded way of getting. I don't think I'm going to put my money on it. I think I'm with Chad here. And just the fact that it's Mahomes and it's under three in this exact spot. And I was hoping Evan was going to be here for this little park because I saw a crazy stat that Mahomes is, was coming into the season. He was 110 in true dome games in his career. 11 0. He's now 150 through this whole season.
- [18:12]
Chad Millman
And don't get Evan to. I mean, certainly Evan will be on Thursday and we can, we can have him follow.
- [18:18]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, because that's, that's. That just blew my mind where it's like I knew how dominant he was in indoor games and how rare was him to play it. Right. Because you know, knowing his division has home games, I know people count the Chargers. That's actually not considered a true home game. I know, as stupid as that sounds, but the Saints dome, this is as dome as it gets. It's the Super Dome. So it's wild where it's. If it's perfect, no wind, no bullshit, people are always like, well, how good he is in the cold. Me and Chad love that stat, right? 16 and 2 when it's below 40 degrees. The man could be, might be 15 and 0 in dome games. It's just it, all of his numbers, all this stuff just breaks all the stuff, all the work I put into it. So yeah, I, I wanted to find reason to back the Seagulls team. I want to believe in Jalen. Hurts I to believe in Saquon Barkley. This run game, after seeing Cooks just do whatever the hell he wanted against this Chiefs team last week. Like, this is a good matchup for the run game for this Eagles team. But like me and Chad know when it's the fourth quarter, even if the Eagles drop a touchdown, Momes is going to find a way. If you let him live long enough, he will find a way. So, yeah, this is a really tough spot to be in. I was really hoping we would come in here and it'd be two and a half, three this Eagles number. And to me, same with the Bills. I would have been comfortable taking the three on this dog. One and a half. I get the respect from the pros and what their models are telling them. I just can't do it. Once it's, Once it's crossed that threshold with Mahomes, once you're getting a great number on Mahomes at one and a half and you can do what Chad's doing, there's no dishonor in taking the money line. Like, you want to play it as safe as possible because last week that game could have easily landed on one. Like, I know Chad was just like me doing that crazy math where it's like, oh my God, they missed a two pointer. They're going to kick a field goal. This is going to land on one. There's no dishonor in taking the money line there. But to me, I don't have fear in taking the one and a half with Mahomes. We just seen super bowl in its entire history, it's only had one game landed between three. So we're talking a long history of the super bowl and only one time in its history has ever landed in between three. So I'm, I'm good with taking the risk, taking the one and a half. I just, I believe in this Chiefs team, believe in the stomber. And I know I hate to do it. I hate to see my team lose. And I know it's going to hurt, but you just have to trust Mahomes and Andy Reid and Spags. Like you just said, in the spot, they always find a way. You just got to throw the numbers out here, people. It's so tough to do, but to me, there's only one side to take and is the Chiefs.
- [20:36]
Chad Millman
Is Chiefs -1 1/2. Your assignment says do it.
- [20:42]
Simon Hunter
We do what Simon says, I'll do it. Yeah, let's. I mean, we only have so many options, right? There's like two. There's only a side in the total here. So I'm with you. Yes. Simon says give me. Give me. Chiefs minus one and a half.
- [20:54]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirror ball trophy from Dancing with a Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but, like, all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like, it's all colored. They changed it, and the. The heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest. It was a little pink.
- [21:38]
Dr. Nick Giffen
There was something sentimental when you. When you send it, you know, it's like, do. Do I send the heart now?
- [21:44]
Bobby Bones
I don't like the color edition.
- [21:45]
Dr. Nick Giffen
It's extremely pink.
- [21:47]
Bobby Bones
Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [21:53]
Justin Penik
What's going on, everybody? This is Justin Pennock from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast alongside Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We're rolling three times a week, on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're talking about the MVP race. Is Josh Allen going to pull it out? Lamar Jackson? Can Saquon Barkley even break the rushing record? Can the Steelers keep up their momentum? We talk about everything. We break it down. Stats, analytics. And of course, Chris Rose is bringing his perspective on being a pro in the media world as well. Listen to football Today on the iHeartRadio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast and you will be glad you did. Hope you could join us for the postseason run.
- [22:44]
Adnan Virk
What's up everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast in the National Hockey League. It's NHL unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [22:52]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst and boy oh boy does daddy have a lot to say.
- [23:00]
Adnan Virk
I love you by the way on NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [23:09]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what, tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [23:19]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're going to soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We get all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear on NHL.
- [23:28]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts Virky.
- [23:32]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Burk and demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [23:44]
AJ Stephens
Ever wonder what it's like to be on the phone with an NFL general manager as you finalize the biggest contract in NFL history? I'm A.J. stephens, Vice President of Client strategy at Athletes Verse, where we've negotiated $1.4 billion in current NFL quarterback contract tracks. Introducing the Athletes First Family podcast, the Quarterback Series, along with my co host Brian Murphy, Athletes first CEO, we're pulling back the curtain on how these historic deals come together. You'll hear directly from the agents who shaped the NFL's financial landscape, the ones who negotiated Justin Herbert's extension and Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed contract that sent shockwaves through the league. This isn't just about the numbers, though. It's about the untold stories behind these massive negotiations and the relationships the NFL superstars like Dak Prescott, Tua Tungavailoa and Jordan Love have with their agents at Athletes First. For the first time ever, the agents who orchestrate these deals are sharing the details of the negotiations and everything that led up to their clients signing on the dotted line. Listen to the Athletes First Family podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [24:49]
Chad Millman
What's interesting to me about this game is, you know, we can talk a little bit about the matchup. I'm excited that we're on the same side. As is customary.
- [24:58]
Simon Hunter
I know. Honestly, I wanted to go against y'all. I was looking for a reason.
- [25:00]
Chad Millman
You knew that. You knew that I loved the Chiefs, and I was. I was honestly nervous. Like, I thought about it yesterday. I thought about it this morning. I'm like, man, I hope Simon's on my side. I know he's doing a lot of work the past couple days. Like, I know he's gonna. I knew you were gonna have the Eagles probably at minus two in this game. If I had to bet, that's where your number landed, right?
- [25:22]
Simon Hunter
No, actually ended just E goes minus one.
- [25:24]
Chad Millman
So minus one.
- [25:25]
Simon Hunter
Technically, that is value. That means you're getting two and a half points of value. Right now.
- [25:28]
Chad Millman
I think you're getting two and a half points of value according to everybody's model, which is why people are betting it.
- [25:34]
Simon Hunter
But guy. Sean. Sean's got it at Chiefs minus one and a half. So Sean. Sean definitely respects the chief side. But, yeah, most. Most pros I've talked to. But what Chad just said is true. They're. Most of them are minus one. Minus one and a half on the Eagles. Even some have minus two. So a lot of respect on the.
- [25:49]
Chad Millman
Eagle side, other than my just firm belief in Andy Reid, Steve Spagnolo, Patrick Mahomes, and getting them is basically to win the game. A couple things about the matchup that stuck out to me that were in favor of the Eagles that I think are being underrepresented potentially in the market or when it comes to evaluating the Chiefs. Everyone talks about the Eagles rush, and it is dominant. Jalen Carter is unreal. Brian Baldinger, who I like to follow, he had a video clip of Jalen Carter, some guy trying to undercut him, and Jalen Carter flipped. Like, literally just hurdled the guy on the way to the quarterback. It was like, the guy is such a freaking nature. But one thing that I think the Chiefs have done, which a lot of people have recognized but not talked enough about, they're not a downfield passing team. And because their offensive line is just not very good right now, like Mahomes, worst QBR he's ever had in his career sacked more than he's ever been in his career. The brilliance of Andy Reid is that he's changed the offense. And so there's such a quick passing offense now. 56% of their receiving yards came on yards after the catch. So part of me feels like some of the matchup advantages that the Eagles have both as a coverage unit and as a rush unit are mitigated because of the way the Chiefs play offense now. Agree or disagree?
- [27:23]
Simon Hunter
Agree. And I do want to give flowers to Nolan Smith Jr. Who, you know, Jaden Daniels is one of the best athletes I've ever seen and he somehow was able to catch him a few times in that game. And you know, he is a difference maker coming off that edge. Like we talked about that Eagles, if there's a defense that can stop them, Mahomes, this is the defense. Like this is in my lifetime, the best defense Eagles I've ever had. Like the. How he hit on every rookie pick and then basically got an all pro for 3 million, $4 million in the middle of the field at linebacker and Braun. So it's, it's all come together. Like this is the perfect thing. But I think Chad knows where I'm coming from, where my life. Like he says, there was hesitation last year in the Super Bowl. As soon as that Ravens game ended, I didn't stop betting that chief's number until that, that Friday, like every station.
- [28:13]
Chad Millman
That was my hesitation.
- [28:15]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [28:15]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [28:15]
Simon Hunter
I was gonna say, like, I was like, the fucking numbers don't matter. That was the best Ravens team that was perfectly set up to beat that chieftain. That Chiefs team was not good last year. Like this chief's team, people were like, well, this team isn't that good. You know, they are. This is a better Chiefs team at any point than they were last year. You know, it's just what we talk about. It's the game within the game that Mahomes plays with Andy Reid. And it's like it's, it's so tough because it's like this is, this Eagles team is perfectly lined up to beat this team. Like they have no weakness. Honestly, like, like we joked about it, their biggest weakness is Hertz. Honestly, when you, when you really do break it down, it's like if Hertz doesn't show up, he's going to need to make big time throws in this game. They will lose this game because the running attack, even the receivers, they will be able to get open. I mean, Matt Collins was able to get open last week. You think AJ or Smith are going to have issues getting open? No. Like they're going to be able to scheme it open. But yeah, when I really dive into it again, we didn't even talk the total yet. Like, that's another spot. I really love the total. I love the under. This does feel like this is going to Be an ugly defensive type of game from both sides. And coming into it, the public is thinking the other way. In my opinion, like, to me, I haven't really looked at it, but they're going to be hammering the over because the Eagles just put up 55 points. Chiefs just had their highest scoring game of the year last week, 32 points. It's really that simple. When you break it down, like the public overreacts to what they just saw, where historical data tells us teams that just, like, went crazy in the conference championship game tend to struggle the Super Bowl. Right. Because it's like you come off for playing a perfect game and it's going to feel different. Right. Every little thing like we talked about last week, I know Chad thought that Eagles left a couple plays on the field. When I go back and watch it, they got so lucky in so many different ways. Like even that opening touchdown, you know, Washington getting sucked in. And triple, you know, Bobby Wagner tripping over his own guy.
- [30:06]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [30:07]
Simon Hunter
Missing the tackle. Saquon breaking those tackles. Fluky. Like, no one, no one, no one's, like, model is going to be like, oh, no, that should have been a touchdown. No, it shouldn't have. Like, a lot of things need to break their way for all those points scored in that game. So, yeah, like we were talking about right now, when I feel like it's going to be a low scoring, ugly, drag it out type of game, once again, favors Mahomes. Like, that's exactly what the Chiefs want to play. They've been living in that this whole season, just pulling people down in the mud, just making them try to wiggle their way out of it. And the Eagles, they have, like I said, they have the team to do it. The. The one loss that really stuck out to me, they had all year was that Josh Allen loss. Mean, I know it was way early in the season, but you saw how they can do it, right, With a mobile quarterback that does give the Chiefs fits. Like, that element of it is an issue to the Chiefs defense because there's so many different options. You can run with it. And we saw it this past week. I mean, it was there for Josh Allen to steal once again. Why? Because he's a mobile quarterback and they do struggle with that. So there are ways to do it. But, I mean, you can just tell, like me and Chad, we just, we've been burned. We've learned our lessons. We feel like we're in the moments of history. Don't overthink it. Right, Chad? That's what I keep Telling myself take Chiefs at a great number. Mahomes, I mean Chad knows these stats. I just want to read it again. I mean we've been talking all week. I know Evans might bring it up too. On extended rest. Mahomes is 30 and four straight up in his career on eight plus days of rest. His only losses is one of them is to Jalen. Hurts like hurts did do it one time. You're asking lightning to strike twice here because it's only happened four times. Brady, Matt, Ryan, Jaylen Herz, Aiden, Oconnell. Mahomes in the playoffs. His record, Chad 17 and 3, 85% straight up. This man, we just, it doesn't make sense. The only, the only person he's behind I love the staff from Evan is Bart Starr who's nine and one straight up in the playoffs. That's what we're talking here, people. It's like the greatest quarterback ever.
- [32:01]
Chad Millman
The, and by the way the quarterback who's three peat he's chasing.
- [32:05]
Simon Hunter
I love it. Yet I even think of that. It's so true. So yeah, it's we, we know we're sin in history chassis Chad's embraced it. I'm still fighting it because I am just to my dying breath being like, no, this can't be true. I can't see my favorite team lose two Super Bowls in three years. But it does feel like we're living in history and this is Mahomes moment. So yeah, Chad, I, I, I again, I'm trying to find a way, people. I'm hoping to come in Thursday or next week on Tuesday and be like, oh, I found this. This is why you should take the Eagles at this point. But no, the number's gone the other way. It's, it's a good number on my homes at this point. The value is on my homes. Let's take my homes here together, brother.
- [32:42]
Chad Millman
Oh my God. I feel like maybe I'll be your best man again.
- [32:46]
Simon Hunter
You're back in. You're back in. You're totally.
- [32:48]
Chad Millman
By the time you find love, by the time you find love, you'll have forgotten all about this. You'll have been in like so many stupors by then. You'll be like, I love Chad. We were on the Chiefs together. All right, there's a couple more things that I have, but I actually feel like they played nicely into Dr. Nick and some of his regression analysis and the luck range.
- [33:09]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, get something smart in here. Let's hear from the doc.
- [33:11]
Chad Millman
Let's get an actual mathematician in here. Reminder to Everybody listening? Our bet365 Super bowl prop Contest is still accepting submissions. If you want to see your custom bet on bet365, email your top super bowl prop ideas to podcasts@actionnetwork.com remember to adhere to state gaming commissions, which means every part of the bet is settled on the field of play, on the field in the box score stuff. The winning submissions often have a clever name like the Brocktopus or the Millennium Falcon. Winner gets an Action Network prize, a chance to come onto the show. Talk to me and Simon about it. The pick will go live on the bet365 website. We've received a lot already. Matt Mitchell has sent me a couple that are pretty funny, but submissions will stay Open T Podcasts actionnetwork.com Simon it's one of my favorite parts of the show. Simon as an experienced journalist and four time bestselling author, I developed an expertise in posing questions to people. But recently I was on the receiving end of an incredible question from one of our listeners. A question I'd never pondered before. The listener asked me, chad, how many roads must a man walk down before you can call him a man? A timeless and evocative question, and it gave me pause because I was struck like a thunderbolt by its simple solution. So I replied carefully and said, the answer is one. Just one road. The road leading directly to the breathable, flexible comfort of our beloved sponsor, Tommy John. Don't trudge up and down the metaphorical highways and byways of the textile world when Tommy John provides a non stop highway to the most comfortable essentials. The softest shirts, the highest quality underwear, everything you need to call yourself a man. And with a special sale for our listeners, walking this easy road just got easier. Join the comfortable men and women raving about Tommy John as they enjoy maximum comfort. Simon, my BFF future groom, when I am your best man, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?
- [35:38]
Simon Hunter
Because comfort is king.
- [35:40]
Chad Millman
Right now you can shop tommyjohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn.com favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorite favorites when you get married, we are 100% wearing Tommy John. Maybe there'll be a Tommy John tux, I don't know. But we are at least we're going matching boxers. I can promise you that right now. Listen, the stage is set for Super Bowl 59 and all the bets to come. That means now is the perfect time to upgrade to an Action Pro Subscription. It's the only way to get real time pick alerts from me and Stuckey and Super bowl prop master Sean Kerner, plus Nick Giffen, plus all the tools you need to turn a profit betting in 2025. Right now, new subscribers could get $40 off a year of Action Pro@actionnetwork.com SB that's $40 off for the full year. So you'll be covered for the Super Bowl, March Madness, baseball, NBA, and even next college football and NFL season. Don't actionnetwork.comsb to get $40 off Action Pro.
- [36:58]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirror ball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but like, all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like, it's all colored. They changed it and the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm going to be honest, it was a little pink.
- [37:42]
Dr. Nick Giffen
There was something sentimental when you, when you send it. It was like, do I send the heart?
- [37:47]
Bobby Bones
Now I don't like the color edition.
- [37:49]
Dr. Nick Giffen
It's extremely pink.
- [37:51]
Bobby Bones
Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [37:57]
Justin Penik
What's going on, everybody? This is Justin Pennock from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast alongside Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We're rolling three times a week, week on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're talking about the MVP race. Is Josh Allen going to pull it out? Lamar Jackson? Can Saquon Barkley even break the rushing record? Can the Steelers keep up their momentum? We talk about everything. We break it down. Stats, analytics, and of course, Chris Rose is bringing his perspective on being a pro in the media world as well. Well, listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did. Hope you could join us for the postseason run.
- [38:48]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan Virk here to tell you about a new podcast from iHeart podcast and the National Hockey League. It's NHL unscripted with Virk and Demers.
- [38:55]
Jason Demers
Hey, I'm Jason Demers, former 700 game NF NHL defenseman turned NHL Network analyst, and boy, oh, boy, does daddy have a lot to say.
- [39:04]
Adnan Virk
I love you, by the way. On NHL Network, we're looking forward to getting together each week to chat and chirp about the sport and all the other things surrounding it that we love. Right?
- [39:12]
Jason Demers
Yeah, I just met you today, but we're going to have a ton of guests from the colliding worlds of hockey, entertainment and pop culture. And you know what? Tons of back and forth on all things NHL.
- [39:23]
Adnan Virk
Yeah, you're soon going to find out we're not just hockey talk. We had all kinds of random stuff on this podcast. Movies, television, food, wrestling, even the stuff that you wear on NHL.
- [39:32]
Jason Demers
Now you wish you could pull off my short shorts, Forky.
- [39:35]
Adnan Virk
That's sure to cause a ruckus. Listen to NHL Unscripted with Virgin Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [39:47]
AJ Stephens
Ever wonder what it's like to be on the phone with an NFL general manager as you finalize the biggest contract in NFL history? AJ I'm AJ Stephens, Vice president of client strategy at Athletes first, where we've negotiated $1.4 billion in current NFL quarterback contracts. Introducing the Athletes First Family podcast, the Quarterback Series, along with my co host, Brian Murphy, Athletes first CEO, we're pulling back the curtain on how these historic deals come together. You'll hear directly from the agents who shaped the NFL's financial landscape, the ones who negotiated Justin Herbert's extension and Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed contract that sent shockwaves through the league. This isn't just about the numbers, though. It's about the untold stories behind these massive negotiations and the relationships the NFL superstars like Dak Prescott, Tua Tungavailoa, and Jordan Love have with their agents at Athletes First. For the first time ever, the agents who orchestrate these deals are sharing the details of the negotiations and everything that led up to their clients signing on the dotted line. Listen to the Athletes First Family podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [40:53]
Chad Millman
All right, let's bring in Dr. Nick. Everyone knows Dr. Nick hosts bet what happens live. That is a great time to bet on big island games. There's no bigger island game than the Super Bowl. I Want to have Nick tell people what the advantage is. You've also seen Nick on Convince Me he'll be on the super bowl show. He crushes it with the luck rankings. Nick, welcome to the show. Immediately just tell people the advantages of halftime prop betting, how they can profit. It's my favorite show that we've produced at Action Network Bell.
- [41:28]
Dr. Nick Giffen
What happens live is awesome. We usually go from the two minute warning through halftime and we're just firing off live bets. I have built a proprietary model which takes in and ingests Shawn Kerner's pregame projections. Right. We have the most accurate projecting guy on the planet here, takes his pregame projections and then translates those into in game projections and we just fire off bets. Whenever the model shows value, it looks at the current game state, score differential, what the money line is, all that stuff, and kind of figures out how things will develop for the rest of the game, the number of expected plays, each team's pass, run ratio, etc. And we've bet. And I have to say this, I'm really excited because we have found this year in the Action Network Discord. So if you want to join Discord, GG ActionNetwork in the action Network Discord. When we're doing these about what happens live shows, we have found an edge that has hit in 100% of the playoff games and has hit like 80% this year. And my model shows it's about a 75, 80% bet every time we bet it. And the books have not adjusted. I'm not going to say what it is because we can't be giving away, you know, edges like that and ruining it for the biggest game of the year. But everybody in the Discord knows it. And if you want to, you know, exploit that live edge with us, make sure you join the Discord. We're going to try to explore some other ways as well to air bet what happens live outside the Discord as well. But definitely join the Action Network Discord.
- [43:01]
Chad Millman
Speaking of super bowl props, a lot of people have been asking when we're dropping our prop episodes featuring Nick, Sean Kerner, Chris Raybon, Grant Neefer, because these have hit at an obscene rate these last few Super Bowls. We're doing those as two sets of Wednesday live shows. Try to catch these live as these numbers get crushed. As soon as any of these guys talk about them, we go live in the Action Network YouTube channel and on Twitter and at Action Network HQ Wednesday the 29th and Wednesday, February 5th. Each time we'll do a part one at 4:00pm Eastern with Dr. Nick and Grant and then part two with Raybon and Kerner at 6:00pm Mark your calendars. Super bowl props, live shows next two Wednesdays 4:00pm 6:00pm Action Network YouTube page, Action Network HQ on Twitter. All right, here's my question for you. Before we get into all your luck ranking stuff, which crushed by the way, like totals were 21 and 12, you know, over the course of the season. There's a lot of turnover regression that I think is possible in this game. The Eagles have a plus 10 turnover margin heading into the super bowl through the playoffs. That's the best in I think 25 years. On Sunday, the Chiefs, while they've went eight games prior without a turnover, they had one turnover, the Bills had none. The Bills according to my count had six turnover worthy plays, two near interceptions from Josh Allen in the first series, and they had four fumbles. They were covered on their own. Do you think there is some turnover aggression here that could play a factor in the game?
- [44:48]
Dr. Nick Giffen
Yeah, I mean it's certainly possible. Right? And, and one of the things is you do make your own luck. So a lot of what the Eagles did, I think it was every, every fumble that hit the ground against the Commanders, the Eagles recovered. Uh, so you know, there is an element of you make your own luck, but when the ball hits the ground, it can bounce in funny ways. So there certainly is an element of luck as well that you aren't creating. But look, I mean if you're forcing fumbles, you're bound to recover some of those fumbles. So if the Eagles keep forcing fumbles, that'll bode well for them because they're still going to recover, you know, around 60% of them or so I think the, the team that forces a fumble tends to recover around 60% long term. But that said, yeah, certainly Eagles came in over expectation versus the Commanders, Chiefs came in under turnover expectation versus the Bills. But that's also, you know, just each team's most recent game. So you got to kind of look at the longer term statistics and you know, probably a little bit of luck favoring the Eagles. So they've been a little bit more lucky than the Chiefs in the turnover department. But you know, to me it's not a super major factor in luck specifically for this game.
- [45:57]
Chad Millman
How did the luck rankings grade this game?
- [46:04]
Dr. Nick Giffen
Yeah, this is an interesting one, the luck rankings. These two teams are one spot apart in our luck ranking, so there's no luck edge on the side and the luck total. And in the playoffs, anything above a One and a quarter or below minus one and a quarter would be a luck over or a luck under. Well, this game is minus 0.1, so no luck on the total either. And here's the funny thing. Two years ago when these teams played, they were one place apart and the luck total was minus 0.1. It is a repeat of 2022, which is incredible. I couldn't believe it when I saw that.
- [46:46]
Chad Millman
Well, Simon, to me that kind of plays into your theory. Exactly. Like this is a grind it out last team with the ball potentially wins. And we're kind of just betting that the Chiefs will be the last ones with the ball, I guess.
- [47:06]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And it kind of scared me what Nick's talking about because that last time they played in the super bowl, obviously that was an easy over. That game went way over. So to me what he talked about though touched a little bit on that I expect from both teams is red zone regression. Right. They're both have just been scoring a ton of touchdowns in the red zone where the Eagles are not that team, right. They're usually a team that it does struggle once they get in the red zone. This past season, right. This playoffs have been much better. And the flip side, the Chiefs, it's been insane how that much they've just been scoring in the red zone, right. They've not been taking the threes that they had that they did during the regular season. So to me the, the turn of regression is a little scary because that could make for some short fields and we are talking about that. But I think it placates to both these teams that they're just, both quarterbacks are so smart protecting the ball that they know that if they don't turn the ball over, they're probably going to win the game. Right. If they just put their team in the best position. So that is kind of the, the weird part with this Eagles team is that I, I do think they've been really lucky with the turnovers. But like Nick said, they've been making their own looks, right? They've been going after the ball, they've been punching the ball out. Not just in that snow game, but in that last game against Washington. On the flip side, Washington was trying to punch the ball and they just couldn't do it. Right. It's, that's the type of thing it is where it's like, you know when you have an all pro like Saquon, you can punch all you want. The dude is so strong, that boy ain't coming out. So I agree. They have been lucky but it's definitely the players they have on the field that make that luck.
- [48:29]
Chad Millman
One more thing that plays to why I like the Chiefs is I do think if it's a close game and they get the ball with four minutes left, I don't have a ton of confidence. The Eagles are getting the ball back. To me that plays into the strength of who the Chiefs are and why you want to be on the side of the Chiefs. Nick, I don't know if you have any thoughts yet. I know you're going to have thoughts on props that I want to get to but like have you thought about the side or the total in this game independent of the luck rankings?
- [49:05]
Dr. Nick Giffen
Yeah, I mean in terms of side or total it's the thing that keeps printing is those chief second half unders even in that high scoring game against the Bills just this last week, if you got that's right 24 and a half. If you got the under 24 and a half it landed on 24. Right. And I talked about that on convince me get that 24 and a half at minus 120 if you got to pay for it and it landed on 24. But the Eagles, they're a possession team, right? They possess the ball 32 minutes per game, number one in the NFL. And then the Chiefs, like you said in the second half, if they have the ball, they're going to make it so the Eagles don't get the ball back. So I think a second half under if you want to go with, you know, the luck totals minus 0.1. There's no luck on the over or the under. And in these Super super bowl since we have started our luck rankings in 2018, the luck total, anytime it's been above or below minus one and a half or plus or sorry one and a quarter or plus one and a quarter has hit. The only one that didn't hit was this minus 0.12 years ago when it went over. So don't factor in the luck, just analyze this game on its own merits because the luck rankings say nothing about it. But those second half unders for the Chiefs just keep printing this year and.
- [50:17]
Simon Hunter
The only reason I didn't make the over under my Simon says is just because you can be patient with this total like we talked about. It's. It's heavy over public money right now and the and professional betters are taking the over. So to me, me Nick talk all the time about key numbers. This could go through a key number of 50 to 51 and a half, like you might. If you're patient here, you might be able to get a really nice number. Obviously, if you want to take it now, four, nine and a half, I have no issue with. That's a great number to get this under on, but I think what Nick's talking about here is you can afford to be patient if you like that second half under. You might get another extra point if you keep waiting. The public keeps hammering this over, so it's really interesting to see all the money right now. It's just all of it. Any book you look at, I'm looking at is on the over, so it's interesting. Chad. It's held at 49 and a half. We're two days in. It's just holding.
- [51:02]
Chad Millman
Yeah. And I'm actually shocked. Right. It opened at 50 and a half. Immediately got that down. Hasn't gone up from the 49 and a half number. These numbers are all basically painted like everyone's minus one and a half. Everyone's 49 and a half. Which is why I'm going to be really curious to see if it budges. I don't. You're right, Simon. If it's going to budge, it'll be much closer to the weekend, Potentially Sunday afternoon, 4:00, when half of New Orleans is piling into a legal sportsbook somewhere or hammering their apps, including bet365, because it's legal in Louisiana and they are just going bonkers betting the over, you know, and potentially betting the Chiefs, which sets up, you know, let's say it does get to three, by the way. Let's say it does get to three at that point. If you bet the one and a half, do we throw a little on the Eagles a plus three and try to get the middle?
- [52:02]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Even if you're trying to play the middle, you can do it at two and a half. Right. The three doesn't matter so much.
- [52:06]
Chad Millman
That's right.
- [52:06]
Simon Hunter
You're on the push. But the. I think the books have made their move at this point. The only way I can see this going now is flipping. I don't think maybe I'll get to two. I don't. I don't think they'll touch two and a half. I could see this either flipping or just staying one and a half at this point. Just because they. They found the resistance. Right. When they move down from two to one and a half, that just shows the resistance of really smart money coming on the Eagles. So I think the books are going to be happy in their position all Right.
- [52:31]
Chad Millman
Nick, you've already identified some props. I know that you're racing through your research. Give me some ideas here of what you're looking at so far.
- [52:45]
Dr. Nick Giffen
Yeah, well, you know, obviously the games just finished on Sunday. Yesterday was Monday, so I spent all of yesterday breaking down this chief's offense. Where are these receivers going to line up? Who are they going to line up against? Things of that nature.
- [53:00]
Chad Millman
Before you do that, before you explain that, I'm sorry to interrupt you, but like, I know what that looks like for Simon and I know what that looks like for me, but you come at this from an entirely different perspective as a mathematician. So what does it mean when you say you were looking at this game trying to see where receivers are going to line up? Are you watching film? How are you thinking about the process here?
- [53:24]
Dr. Nick Giffen
Yeah, not film, a lot of numbers. Right. So are you lining up in the slot? Are you lined up out wide, inline backfield, those kinds of things. So where on the field are you positioning? Are the receivers positioning themselves? But then I'm also looking at things like pressure rates. So certain receivers get targeted more when the quarterback is under pressure, when Mahomes is under pressure, and certain receivers get targeted less when he's under pressure. Additionally, you look at coverages. So if the opposing defense is playing a too high safety shell versus a single high safety, certain receivers get targeted in different ways. So all those things kind of get factored together and you mold those into a projection and you know, that's kind of what I'm looking at. So I'm not really looking at the film aspect of things. Just a lot of numerical nerdy stuff. Right. That I, that I'm, you know, putting my math PhD to, to good work here.
- [54:19]
Chad Millman
So you're going.
- [54:20]
Dr. Nick Giffen
That's a lot of what I was doing yesterday.
- [54:21]
Chad Millman
You're going to like the advanced analytics sites, whether it's NFL next gen stats or you know, pro football focus, places like that that are giving you the percentages of where players are lining up, you're flowing that into a model, you're running your model, etc. Etc. Okay.
- [54:37]
Dr. Nick Giffen
Exactly. Yeah. That's 100%, right. And so when you do that, you know, one of the things I noticed, which of course everybody knows this, these Eagles cornerbacks are amazing. Right? You got Quinion, Mitchell, Darius, Slay, Cooper, DeJean. These guys allow targets at such a low rate because they produce such awesome coverage that what that does. Even though the Eagles don't generate a ton of pressure, they generate the fifth lowest pressure rate in the regular season, it still forces quarterbacks to scramble. We talk about the coverage sack. Well, these are the coverage scrambles that the Eagles force. So they either get coverage sacks because even though they have the fifth lowest pressure rate, they're about mid tier in terms of sack rate. So that means coverage sacks. But they also allow coverage scrambles. And whether it's a coverage sack or a coverage scramble, it does two things. It takes away a pass attempt from the quarterback that would have been a pass attempt. Right. And it eats clock. Because if you're scrambling, the clock's going to run or if you get sacked, the clock is going to run. Both of those things help in under. So, Chad, I don't know if you want to give me my favorite player prop, but I'm kind of hidden at it. It's Patrick Mahomes. Under 36 and a half passing attempts. You can get it minus 119, I think is the best out there. A lot of minus 120s. I have Patrick Mahomes projected for between 34 and a half, 35 as my average number in the model. I went over to Sean Kerner, I was like, are you showing value on this? Because I am. And he's like, yeah, I've got this closer to 35. So we're both showing value on this. Under 36 and a half pass attempts for Mahomes. Couple other reasons why I like it. The Eagles. We talked about it. Number one in possession. Time of possession, 32 minutes per game. Right around there, give or take a little bit. If the Eagles are possessing the ball, Mahomes can't be throwing it. And Mahomes is looking to run in the playoffs. Right. They protect him in the regular season. And we've seen this even with certain play calls. There's play calls that the Bills didn't even see on film all year that the Chiefs ran in that game versus the Bills. The Chiefs really opened things up in the playoffs because they no longer need to protect Mahomes. The goal is to win the Super Bowl. Mahomes 7 and 11 rushing attempts in the two playoff games. Those are his two highest rushing attempt totals of the whole season. So if he's running a few extra times, that's taking away pass attempts. Mahomes has averaged 35.1 pass attempts on the year, 25 and a half in the playoffs. And the Eagles only allow 31.8 pass attempts per game. So a lot of things pointing to to the under 36 and a half pass attempts for Mahomes.
- [57:13]
Chad Millman
What do you think of that Simon?
- [57:15]
Simon Hunter
Love it. I mean you remember on Convince me anytime I had to do prior props almost always went to the quarterback completion because you can find a lot of value on a lot of different quarterbacks this year. Obviously I was always hammering Anthony Richardson unders. It was really profitable. Depending on their matchup, you knew that the Colts were going to win. It was basically easy money just to set it betting the spread. You just take his under completions because they just would run the ball anytime they did win. So I love the thinking you're with Nick, especially the fact that this is going to be bumped up because it's the books. Taking the season average of Mahomes now, factoring what Nick just talked about in the playoffs, Mahomes runs it much more like something that they can't quantify. So to me I love the play because we know both teams are going to bleed the clock which means less possessions, which means less time throwing the ball. So love this opening one from Nick.
- [57:59]
Chad Millman
Also it correlates to what we would like to happen. If Patrick Mahomes is throwing it less then chances are the Chiefs are doing. Yeah okay Dr. Nick, what's another one?
- [58:15]
Dr. Nick Giffen
Well that's the only prop I've got so far. I did bet yesterday a Xavier worthy sgp. I took his under five and a half receptions and I parlayed it with his touchdown. So a little anti correlation there. I'm showing value on his under five and a half and I'm showing value on his anytime touchdown. So if I'm showing value on both, why not parlay them and get that extra boost in odds because of the negative correlation. So that's the only other bet I have made so far for the Super Bowl. After this podcast I'm gonna be diving into the Eagles side of the ball and you know I'm sure we'll have some Eagles props got the proper Palooza show tomorrow like you said. So I gotta get on those Eagles props as well and have something for that show.
- [58:57]
Simon Hunter
What are you thinking about this matchup for Travis Kelsey where we've seen the Eagles the one place you can attack. I mean we talked last week. Week. I feel like everyone action loved Earth last week and he ended up having what 100 yards ton of catches. Week before that we saw Higby have a good game against the Eagles. Even the backup, the number two tight end had a good game against you. I think he scored a touchdown against the Eagles. Are are you seeing a ton of value right now on Travis Kelser Is that market just dead because of who he is and what the betting public does with with Travis G. Because I haven't bet it yet. I'm just wondering where you're coming from with your numbers are saying this, this a good spotter. Is this a spot just to avoid Travis Kelsey?
- [59:31]
Dr. Nick Giffen
Props, this is, this is interesting because it's Travis Kelce, right? I mean he's dating Taylor Swift. You'd think the public's going to be hammering his over so there wouldn't be value on his over. But last I checked, which admittedly was yesterday, I was showing some value on Travis Kelce over on his receptions which is mind boggling when you think about where the public usually is. So maybe I'll end up joining the public. I haven't bet it yet myself because it's, you know, less than a 5% edge that I have on it. But you're right, I mean he lines up out wide very little in the playoffs. He's out lined up out wide. 7% on the right, 6% on the left in the slot, 33%. But more than half his snaps come either in line or in other spots on the field that he's going to be avoiding those Eagles top three cornerbacks and so they'll end up targeting Travis Kelce quite a bunch and I think this is a very good spot for Travis Kelce.
- [60:28]
Chad Millman
Dr. Nick, I like that you mentioned Xavier Worthy. You know that was a big one for convince me this week that the touchdown projections that you and Kerner have been doing all season have been crushing it. So I like the idea of that Xavier Worthy under five and a half receptions plus an anytime touchdown. He's getting more and more into the offense, obviously getting more and more target share. Got inches away two weeks ago. Got in there last week. Very good one. Look, if you're listening to this show, you know that the luck rankings are a regular reference point for us. I'm glad we could have Dr. Nikon to break it down a little bit more from a luck perspective. Thanks Dr. Nick.
- [61:13]
Dr. Nick Giffen
Of course. Glad to join you guys and ready for that 2022 rerun. By the way, Simon, congrats to your Eagles against my commanders. I did feel the pain a little bit. Just like our producer for the Buffalo Bills side of things as well.
- [61:28]
Simon Hunter
You'll always have the Hard Rock, brother.
- [61:30]
AJ Stephens
That's right.
- [61:34]
Chad Millman
That's funny. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or 1-800-bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page 11am Eastern Thursday to talk about the trends with Evan Abrams. Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods. Rate, review, subscribe, leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is the gift. Till next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you, Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [62:55]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing With a Star. So where else you can find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [63:25]
Justin Penik
What's up, everyone? It's Justin Penick from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays, breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, or wherever you get your podcast and you will be glad you did.
- [63:55]
Adnan Virk
What's up, everybody? Adnan virtually tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virkin Demers, Jason Demers here.
- [64:02]
Jason Demers
And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.
- [64:06]
Adnan Virk
Hey, I got a lot to say here, too, okay? Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.
- [64:10]
Jason Demers
Tons of guests are going to join in, too, but we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking TV, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on Le Table.
- [64:20]
Adnan Virk
Listen to NHL Unscripted with Vir and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast Podcast or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [64:28]
AJ Stephens
$1.4 billion in NFL quarterback contracts the untold stories behind the biggest deals in football history I'm AJ Stephens, vice president of client strategy at Athletes first, introducing the Athletes First Family Podcast, the Quarterback Series. My co host Brian Murphy, Athletes first CEO, and I are sitting down with the agents who have negotiated contracts for just Herbert Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Tua Tugovailoa, and Jordan Love. Listen to Athletes First Family Podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.