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- [00:00]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [00:30]
Chad Millman
What's up, everyone?
- [00:31]
Chris Raybon
Julius Werbinks here along with former NHL player Nate Thompson.
- [00:35]
Sean Kerner
We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go.
- [00:38]
Simon Hunter
The name Energy Line with Nate and jsb. Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey life. All topics are fair game, right?
- [00:46]
Chris Raybon
Exactly.
- [00:47]
Chad Millman
And you'll never know who will drop.
- [00:49]
Simon Hunter
By to join us.
- [00:50]
Sean Kerner
Julie is pretty well connected.
- [00:52]
Simon Hunter
She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.
- [00:55]
Chris Raybon
Listen to Energy Line with Nate and jsb on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts.
- [01:00]
Simon Hunter
Or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:02]
AJ Stephens
$1.4 billion in NFL quarterback contracts. The untold stories behind the biggest deals in football history. I'm AJ Stephens, Vice president of Client strategy at Athletes first, introducing the Athletes First Family podcast, the Quarterback series. My co host, Brian Murphy, Athletes First CEO and I are sitting down with the agents who have negotiated contracts for Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Tuathungavailoa and Jordan Love. Listen to Athletes First Family podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [01:36]
Justin Pennik
What's up, everyone? It's Justin Pennik from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get your podcast and you will be glad you did.
- [02:15]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the favorites the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. Oh, hey, I'm Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday Super Bowl 59 props episode. We are welcoming in our very special Action Network colleagues. Two of the best in the business might be the best in the business. Prop betting experts Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner. They are two of fantasy pros, top ranked NFL player projectionists. You can hear them every week on the Must Listen Fantasy Fantasy Flex podcast. They'll give out some of their favorite super bowl props with us today after Sean and Chris. Producer Matt Mitchell is going to go through the best submissions from our bet365 Super bowl prop contest. At the very end we'll announce the contest winner and have that person join the show. As a reminder, sharp calls, big balls, biggest bets, Scooter, let all going to come on Thursday, our final episode before the Super Bowl. Very exciting week, plenty of stuff to discuss. Live from our Tommy John home studios. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion Mike Compadre, my BFF professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon, Chad.
- [03:41]
Simon Hunter
Happy super bowl week, my man.
- [03:42]
Chad Millman
We made it brother. A little melancholy. You know we got Raybon on today. You know I love listening not only to the Fantasy Flex with him and Kerner, which I listen to every week when I'm prepping for our show. I also listened to the Action Network pod with Raybon and Stuckey in the Sunday Six pack and when I listened to it this week, they had the show post last night and Raybon at the end was like, it's our last show of the season. You know, six years Raybon and Stuckey have been doing that. I love the six pack and I was a little bit sad, a little bit teary eyed that we're coming down to our last two episodes before the Super Bowl.
- [04:25]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, it's sad that it's over, but I mean that's, that's how we, we love and appreciate the season, brother. It's got to end so we can enjoy when it starts up again next year. That's just part of life.
- [04:34]
Chad Millman
Don't be sad that it's over, Simon. Just be happy that it's happened. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or 1, 800 bets off in Iowa Terms conditions restrictions apply Mr. Sean Kerner, Mr. Chris Raybon, both of you dressed in Eagles gear, which worries me a little bit as someone along with Simon, who on the two episodes last week it often described how into the Chiefs we were. And, and Raybon, I'm going to ask you specifically about your side later in the show. Just explain to me and to Simon and to Those watching on YouTube, Kerner, why are you in your Eagles hat? Which always makes me nervous.
- [05:56]
Matt Castle
Yeah, don't get nervous, Chad. It's. It's not that big of a deal. I, I would say all three of my props involve Eagles players in some way shape or form. Last week most of my props involved Chiefs players. So I was wearing a Chiefs hat. So that's, that's why I'm rocking the Eagles hat today.
- [06:13]
Chad Millman
Got it. All right, Raybon, give me the reason for your Eagles gear. Your Randall Cunningham throwback jersey.
- [06:20]
Chris Raybon
During COVID I had a lot of disposable income. I didn't know what to do with it. So I bought a bunch of jerseys and really this is the only time I can wear them.
- [06:30]
Chad Millman
All right, we're going to get to it then. Kerner and Raybon last week did the first version of their proper Palooza pod. They will do the second one on Wednesday. And last week's version, remind me if I'm wrong or correct me if I'm wrong. Kerner's prop. One of them was Drew Tranquil. Under seven and a half tackles. It's currently minus 160. Also there was violence inflicted upon me. I mean, who wants to, who wants to own it? Raybon.
- [07:08]
Chris Raybon
Hey, I, you know, Sean was explaining who Drew Tranquil was and I just said I'm not Chad Millman. I know who Drew Tranquil is. This is not convinced me.
- [07:18]
Chad Millman
For the record. For the record, I'm fully aware of most starters on NFL teams, but it's when you bring out your. Let's go bet. John Beck under half a reception.
- [07:33]
Chris Raybon
Ah, don't, don't. Traumatic. Traumatic experience.
- [07:36]
Matt Castle
John Bates. It's John.
- [07:38]
Chad Millman
There you go.
- [07:39]
Matt Castle
Andrew Beck. Andrew Beck is the other.
- [07:41]
Chad Millman
That's what I mean.
- [07:42]
Matt Castle
Hybrid.
- [07:42]
Chad Millman
When you're bringing out third string receivers that don't even average a catch a game, that's when I might not get it. Okay, so Kerner like Drew Tranquil. Raybone liked under eight and a half total pass catchers for Kansas City. I think Raybone like no missed kicks up to plus 175. Kroner liked most tackles and assists is a long shot. Oren Burks +320. Am I missing anything from that one, fellas?
- [08:13]
Chris Raybon
That was so long ago. Those are last week's props, bro. Let's get on.
- [08:19]
Matt Castle
We got, we got some new ones for you Ch Today.
- [08:21]
Chad Millman
I know this week, this week you each have three brand new props for me and Simon, some of which I imagine is previewing prop A Palooza. Maybe these are all special ones. Raybon, kick us off. Give us your current best prop.
- [08:38]
Chris Raybon
All right, well, I'm not going to kick us off, but we're going to go with field goals. Over one and a half for Kansas City at minus 125. I would bet this up to about minus 150. So I think that the Chiefs are going to struggle in a red zone. That's kind of what's been the history of Patrick Mahomes going up against Vic Fangio defenses. He's been able to move the ball, but really struggled in the red zone. And Kansas City this year just number 26 and fourth down attempts. And they've only gone for it twice all year on more than fourth and one with Mahomes starting. So Andy Reid will take the points here. Harrison Bucker 15. The last two postseasons, Eagles have allowed multiple field goal attempts. In all three playoff games, the Chiefs have made two or more in 11 of 18. Mahomes starts two or more in seven of eight against Fangio defenses with Mahomes and six of eight playoff games over the last two postseason. So I think there's a high likelihood that you get at least two Harrison Butner field goals. I don't even mind laddering, you know, three, four as well because I do think that the Eagles are going to be able to get some stops down in the red area.
- [09:52]
Chad Millman
Simon, you got any thoughts on that?
- [09:54]
Simon Hunter
I mean, I hope he's right. I was gonna say we're heavy. I'm heavy on the under, so that, that'd be pretty nice for me and I, I totally agree that, you know, the few defenses that give them issues. I mean even this season though we've seen their numbers is it was what were they around 22nd this year? Chris and red zone efficiency, like exactly 22nd. Yeah. This, this season they've already struggled with it. So I think it adds to it. The fact that he know they've struggled against his defense and their kicker before his injury. He was automatic. Even since he's been back, he's been pretty good. And then the fact that they're in a dome, it only adds to me liking these, these kicker props even more.
- [10:28]
Chad Millman
Yeah, look we love the kicker props. We love when Sean and Raybon talk about the kicker props. So I'm glad Raybon is euphemistically kicking it off with a kicker prop because I was going to ask them if there were any up that they liked, so that's good. Kerner, give me your Eagles prop.
- [10:46]
Matt Castle
Well, I have three of them, but the first one is, it's definitely a juicy one. It's Saquon Barkley to have the most rushing attempts in the game at minus 350. This is one I would kind of bet tiny juice. But you know, Barkley's a massive favorite in this market and rightfully so. But the price should be a lot higher. I mean, his, his Russia temp prop is around 21 and a half right now. The next closest is cream hunt at 11 and a half. Then you have Jalen Hurts at nine and a half. Mahomes and Pacheco are both around six. Unlike yards where, you know, any given play a player can pop off for 50 plus yards, it's a wide range of outcomes. You know, a player can only get one rush attempt on any given play, so the distribution of these props is much tighter. So in my simulation, I'm showing like a 96 chance he has the most rush attempts. But then you have to factor in, you know, the chances of him getting injured. He would have to get injured before getting like 15 rush attempts. If he has 15 rush attempts and he gets knocked out of the game, he'll probably still take down this market or like the ideal game script where the Chiefs get up early, like to a big lead early. Kareem Hunt ends up, you know, rushing the ball 20 plus times. Eagles have to get in the passive game script. Factoring all that in, I, I'd say a very conservative projection would be about 85%. So like minus 560 for Barkley to, to lead the game in rush attempts. So I think even though it's juicy and pricey at minus 350, I still think there's some value here.
- [12:21]
Chad Millman
That one doesn't correlate exactly to what I would like to happen in the game, but it's interesting. Yeah, it's true. I mean, it's interesting that Delta I know, you know, Raybon and Stuckey Raybon jump in here because I know you and Stuck talked a little bit about Saquon's rushing total prop. And this market was so inflated before the NFC title game opened up. I think a little bit more reasonably for the super bowl, but it's still Been coming down. Do you have any thoughts on his rushing total yardage prop?
- [13:03]
Chris Raybon
Yeah, so I think it's still about five yards too high, in which you can expect that in a game like this. But one thing that's interesting, it kind of goes with what Sean is saying, is that Saquon Barkley's been busting off these explosive plays almost every game. If he doesn't, they're inversely correlated, his yardage and his attempts. Right. Because if he doesn't bust off a 70 yarder on one carry, he might need, you know, eight carries, 10 carries, you know, a whole drive worth of carries, whatever that may be, to get that same amount of yardage, multiple drives even. So that's how you kind of have to think about the attempt. So just if you want to fade Saquon Barkley or back Saquon Barkley, it's not as simple as just going like over attempts over yards. I think attempts would indicate he, he probably struggling a little more than just necessarily. Okay. The Eagles are in a positive game script. Like they're going to run the ball no matter what. Like up, down, they'll run the ball as long as they can, especially now. So I think, you know, that's something to keep in mind, is that his, his yardage is going to be a little inversely correlated with the attempts.
- [14:08]
Chad Millman
He also does tend to disappear sometimes. There are, there are parts of the game where either they're, they've got Gainwell in there for extended looks or he just sort of is 1 yard, 2 yard, 1 yard, 2 yard and then he breaks.
- [14:24]
Chris Raybon
Yeah. How did he not like, he didn't even clear his, his yardage prop last in the championship game. In the first run, he got like 60, right? 60, 70 yards. So yeah, that, that kind of.
- [14:34]
Matt Castle
Well, he was dealing with that calf injury. Right. Like he was out of the game.
- [14:37]
Chris Raybon
He did, yeah. He did miss plays.
- [14:39]
Matt Castle
Yeah, I, I think if, if he was healthy, I don't think Gainwell plays more than just a handful of snaps. I think that had to do with Barkley just like actually being injured.
- [14:48]
Chris Raybon
Yeah, but I mean, he's also, when you guys get to that volume level, like you almost gotta project like a half a carry or carry for the backup just because it's so hard to stay healthy for that many snaps. Like we've seen Barkley weave a few games now where they're giving him like all the carries. I think even the week one, he, he had a, he missed a couple plays, but it's happened a few times. But Yeah, I agree. I don't think game will get much done. Maybe some, some third down pass blocking stuff.
- [15:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I think people just got unlucky, right? A guy had 15 carries and it was in a blowout. And basically Sirianni's just been talking about SA for this exact game. So this game I can't see him saving for anything. Right? There's no, it's the offseason. So to me I, I would be shocked too. Game while getting many touches. What, what's your next prop, Chris?
- [15:30]
Chris Raybon
All right, so speaking of which, I'm going with both teams combined rushing yardage under 285 and a half. You can get that at minus 115 at bet365. I think this is way too high. I have these teams projected to combine for just under 260 total rushing yards. So number one, Kansas City. They've been struggling to run the ball since they moved Joe Tunney to left tackle from guard. 99 carries for the running backs, 3.57 yards per carry since they made that move. And this is a top two run defense in Philadelphia. And on the other side we've heard it all, you know, all. All week Kansas City, they haven't allowed 100 yard rusher. Now I think they've had a very easy schedule of opposing run offenses has the Chiefs. But I still think they're a good run defense because of Steve Spagnolo. Remember last two Super Bowls against Philly a couple years ago they had a top five running offense. He held them to 3.6 yards of carry on 32 carries. San Francisco comes in last year. Top three rushing offense, Christian McCaffrey. How are we going to stop him? Kansas City's one of the worst run defenses, number 27. They hold him to 31 for 110. The Niners total for the game just 3.55 yards per carry. So Spagnol is going to kind of. He's going to kind of switch into front's weight in the down and kind of confuse them that way and you know, make Jalen hurts, make some checks and things like that. So they'll find a way to slow them, slow Barkley down. I don't think he'll pop off quite as much as he has the last couple games. And if you just look at the numbers, Philadelphia combined rushing yards over this number in 1219. But Kansas City games hasn't happened all year. So you look at the two teams combined, that's just 12 of 38, just 32%. So. And that's you know, that's kind of what you're expecting here. Which is why I, I think this market is massively inflated as you'll see for most of just offensive numbers to deal with yardage and touchdowns. But yeah, I think this is about 25 yards too high. So G be combined rushing yards under 285 and a half for both teams.
- [17:37]
Chad Millman
Rushing, that does feel insanely high. Going completely against expectations for the Chiefs who the last what, three or four games we've seen since Isaiah Pacheco came back, he's not being used in the same way. He's not getting as many carries. It's really much more about Kareem Hunt. Kareem Hut. Banging it up the middle. Cream Hunt. 5, 6, 7, 8 yards at the most. Except when you know we have under 10 and a half yards for his longest carry. Oh, does that, you know, once in a four game span. It just happens to be the game that we bet it. But generally like this is not a big rushing team and with Joe Tuney at left tackle, like Caliendo has not been the same player that.
- [18:21]
Chris Raybon
Oh, he's been terrible.
- [18:22]
Chad Millman
Right, he's been terrible.
- [18:24]
Chris Raybon
So they both have like they would both rank like bottom five. You know, if they had their PFF run blocking grade over the full year since Tuni went to tackle and Caliendo went to guard, it essentially made their run blocking worse at both spots. So. Yeah, right.
- [18:40]
Chad Millman
The only difference is now maybe Mahomes is a little bit more protected at left tackle.
- [18:46]
Chris Raybon
Yeah. But he also has like these negative 10 yard kneel downs that Sean knows very well. So that's another way that you could like get like an out to get under this number. Even if you're kind of sweating it, you know, maybe it's hanging around that 280 mark. You know, if Mahomes has to take some Neil downs, you're, you're, you're definitely going backwards.
- [19:04]
Simon Hunter
Also, you didn't even talk about them in these, both these teams bleed clock. So even if the run game's not working, both teams will still run it. That's who they are in the second half. So that's even better where. Oh no, it could be a lot of third and eighth, third and sevens that they ran it two times and the both teams won't care if they pick up the first down. They'll probably run it twice again if either team has a lead. Like they just both teams, their scripts all season have been leaning on the run heavy in the second half and just bleeds clock. So like you said, even if both teams aren't successful, they're still going to keep doing it, still keep eating away at that clock, which plays even more to this prop going under.
- [19:35]
Chad Millman
It's a really good point. Kerner, fire away.
- [19:40]
Matt Castle
All right, well, you know, I already gave out minus 350props, so let's go with a long shot here. Let's go. The first sack of the game is going to go to Nolan Smith at 16 1. You know, Smith was their first round pick last year, didn't do much as a rookie, but he's really started to break out over the final few weeks of the season and into the playoffs. He actually leads the Eagles in pressures since week 15 with 23. He now is the second each three rounds of the playoffs so far. So if he gets a sack in the super bowl, he'll be the first player ever to have a sack in four playoff games. So he's just on fire right now. He might be going up against, you know, right tackle Juan Taylor for most of the game who's allowed A team high 41 pressures. So I love the matchup, you know, love his upside here. He actually has my. He's tied for the second highest sack projection in this game. So, you know, I show a fair price for the first sack. Closer to plus 8. 50.
- [20:42]
Jason Saidi
50.
- [20:43]
Matt Castle
And we're getting 16:1 on this. This is offering too much value. It's also a fun sweat, too. I mean, who knows when the first act's going to be, but this is a market I haven't bet on before. I haven't even seen a price for this yet. But yeah, 16 to 1 Nolan Smith. Sign me up for that.
- [20:57]
Chad Millman
That does seem like fun, but as soon as you wrote it down, I'm like, that's. Every single time Kansas City drops back, there's going to be a super, super exciting sweat happening with Nolan Smith. Evan is reporting that this is what, five to one. Got it. Okay.
- [21:21]
Simon Hunter
No, no, no. He's saying this is basically five to one every book. And the one Sean's giving out, go get it at bet365 because it's insanely great value.
- [21:28]
Chad Millman
Ah, got it. All right.
- [21:30]
Simon Hunter
And just to reiterate what he's saying, Nolan Smith has already set the record for most sacks and Eagles history in the playoffs. That's how impressive this kid's been. He's gotten four sacks. Yeah, I know, it's crazy, but it was Brandon Graham at three and a half and he just broke it by getting his fourth sack. So when you really go through it, this kid, every week, like, Sean's breaking down, he's gotten better. This is the type of game where they've been watching film on someone for two weeks. They're going to set him up. Like, they're going to know a move that's going to work on this guy. And like, I like Sean saying, I love the. At those odds, that's a great price for a guy to be waiting two weeks. First. First drop back, he could set this guy up for a little, you know, knock his arms down, whatever, swinging on him. Like, there's just a bunch of things you go into when there's really good pass rushers against subpar tackles. They know their weaknesses by this game and they know which. Which is going to work. So I love that value, especially the fact that it's 16 to 1 right now. That's. That's insanely high.
- [22:23]
Chad Millman
Well, you know what's interesting about having the two weeks, and I think this goes for all three of you, really, is it's no different than Andy Reid, Spagnolo, Fangio, you've got two weeks to game plan for your weaknesses and to game plan for another team's strengths. Right. So let's say Kerner or Raybon or Simon Kerner, start with you. Over these two weeks, how much do you have to incorporate the idea that someone might be looking to defend against a trend that you've been identifying that is on the upswing?
- [23:04]
Matt Castle
What do you mean exactly?
- [23:06]
Chad Millman
So over, let's say dirt, like on a week to week basis?
- [23:09]
Matt Castle
Yeah.
- [23:10]
Chad Millman
There's only so much game planning someone can do to improve their weakness against a team's strength. But over two weeks, there's a lot of time to try to figure out what that answer is. Right. So you're basing this based on models that are identifying what you think are opportunities or deltas in numbers, whatever the case may be. But coaches are probably looking at that and thinking, okay, that's a tendency we need to fix. So don't you have to account for that when you're modeling?
- [23:41]
Matt Castle
Yeah, for sure. And I think, like, you know, I'm going to use math for, you know, 99% of the way to get there and then kind of incorporate that. And it kind of goes back to what we're saying with Saquon Barkley. Like, obviously the Chiefs are going to have a couple weeks to game plan. Like, how do we slow down Saquon Barkley? And I think they have the scheme and coaching staff to do that. So I'm Probably a little bit lower on Barkley than most in the market. Kind of going with what you're saying is like the extra planning to, you know, slow down somebody that's been unstoppable like Barkley. I think it's more likely to be able to do that with extra week. For sure.
- [24:14]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [24:14]
Chris Raybon
And Chad, I think what you're getting at is, you know, Stucky and I talked on the, on the pod about how a lot of times when you have these pass rushes and you know, you're just going to get the ball out quick and that's what's kind of been happening with Mahomes and, and even hurts, you know, got the ball quicker in the championship. However, I like Sean's bet because the Eagles are a lot more predictable sack wise, pass rush wise. Because Fangio already got burned with the blitz. He's probably, he usually does not blitz Mahomes. It just doesn't really work. And so you're going to have, you're not going to get as many disguised pressures and guys coming from every which way like you are with Spagnoble, who I think on the, the, the decisive play of that Bills game, I think he sent one of the corners. I think he said it was either. I think it was McDuffie or somebody.
- [25:00]
Chad Millman
Yeah.
- [25:01]
Chris Raybon
So, yeah, it's like that's. With the Eagles. You're not going to get as much of that now. Of course you could. It's the super bowl. You're going to try to break tendency, but they're going to play it a lot more straight up just because they have that kind of talent and, and you know, they've tried it the other way and it hasn't really worked. So it's easier, I think it's a little easier to bet their sacks and predict them and model them than it is for the Chiefs.
- [25:21]
Simon Hunter
Also, sometimes there's nothing you can really do. Like these teams are so great. They're such a high levels. Like my favorite thing ever was talking to GM you know, years ago after Mahomes came to the league and he was like, yeah, well, guys know the books out on him force him to his left right to overload the right side. And obviously Andy Reid, they knew that the Chiefs, he came the next year, he was perfect going to his left. So now teams don't even do that anymore.
- [25:42]
Chad Millman
Right.
- [25:42]
Simon Hunter
It's all about getting up the middle on Mahomes. So it's just funny where it's like, I'm with you, Chad. There's, there's, there's going to be definitely moves these guys will make to just, just pieces, right? But at the end of the day, it's like the Eagles run maybe four or five plays honestly running the ball all season and no one can stop it like that's how dominant they've been. So I agree with you. There's going to be things they're going to try to do and adjust and different looks. But at the end of the day, it's like, you know, you just can't stop greatness. All you hope to do is slow it down a little bit. So that that's interesting part of this one. It's like they already know. Spags knows he can't stop the Seagulls rushing team if he can limit them in the red zone. That's going to be the key to this game.
- [26:18]
Chad Millman
Well, let's hope that the Eagles and Chiefs combine for less than 285 and a half rushing Simon the upcoming super bowl reminds me of an old parable, the story of the scorpion and the frog who sit at the bank of a river. The scorpion asks the frog to carry him across, but the frog resists, fearing the scorpion will sting him as they cross. The scorpion argues he'd never do that since it would doom them both. So the frog agrees and begins swimming across the river with the scorpion upon his back. But sure enough, midway across the river, the scorpion does sting the frog, spelling disaster for them. Both philosophers argue about the lesson of this tale as they grapple with the nature of good and evil, but to me, the takeaway is simple. Neither the frog nor the scorpion were able to make rational decisions nor operate in their own best interests because they have never experienced the breathable, flexible comfort of our beloved sponsor, Tommy John. You don't have to cross the metaphorical river of daily routine with inferior underwear. You need not sink to the muddy bottom of discomfort in scratchy discount loungewear. Tommy John provides safe passage to the most comfortable essentials. The softest shirts, the highest quality underwear. Everything you need to live better and act smarter. And with a special sale for our listeners, crossing this river to a better life just got easier. So come down to the water's edge of luxurious comfort. Enjoy the thousands here raving about Tommy John. Simon why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?
- [28:22]
Simon Hunter
Because comfort is king right now.
- [28:25]
Chad Millman
You can shop tommyjohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn.com favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorites Simon the inevitable Question is, which one of us is the scorpion and which one of us is the frog?
- [28:51]
Simon Hunter
I'm probably the scorpion.
- [28:53]
Chad Millman
I think you are, too.
- [28:54]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Let's be honest.
- [28:55]
Chad Millman
I think 100%. I don't even think. I don't even think there's a question. Matt Mitchell is killing it with these. He is on a roll. Yeah. Like, I just look forward to these, honestly.
- [29:07]
Simon Hunter
That gave me a view and it would have been like you reading me a bedtime story chat and I don't know. I don't know I feel about it, really.
- [29:13]
Chad Millman
I feel like, you know what? When I was reading it, I did feel like I was reading it in sort of the voice, tone and temper that I used to read stories to my kids, and I felt like I was killing it. The stage is set for Super Bowl 59 and all the bets to come. That means now is the perfect time to upgrade to an Action Pro subscription. It's the only way to get real time. Pick alerts from our experts like our guests Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner. Plus, all the tools you need to turn a profit betting in 2025. Plus right now, new subscribers can get $40 off a year of Action Pro@actionnetwork.com SB that's $40 off for the full year, so you'll be covered for the Super Bowl, March Madness, baseball, NBA, and even next college football and NFL season. Don't wait. Visit actionnetwork.comsb to get $40 off Action Pro.
- [30:20]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirror ball trophy from Dancing with a Star. So where else are you gonna find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but, like, all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like, it's all colored.
- [30:58]
Chad Millman
They changed it.
- [30:59]
Bobby Bones
And the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest. It was a little pink.
- [31:03]
Simon Hunter
There was something sentimental when you.
- [31:05]
Chad Millman
Like when you send it.
- [31:07]
Jason Saidi
Like, do I send the heart now?
- [31:09]
Bobby Bones
I don't like the color edition.
- [31:10]
Jason Saidi
It's extremely pink.
- [31:12]
Bobby Bones
Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [31:19]
Chad Millman
Here's a prop. I'd like everyone's opinion on this. Here's a prop Nick Giffen raised when he was on with Simon and I last week and then also discussed on Propa Palooza part one that he did with Grant Nefer. And I know, like, in the. In the touchdown projections, Kerner, Xavier Worthy's consistently been undervalued. So what about a Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown plus under five and a half receptions, which Nick Giffen loved when we were discussing it last week?
- [31:56]
Matt Castle
Yeah, anything Nick Giffen does, I approve. I love the idea because I mean, Worthy can score a touchdown with a design rush attempt, so he has a. He already has a clear path to do this. But I think, yeah, his. His reception prop is also a bit high. He's explosive. So, yeah, I think it makes a ton of sense. And of course, Nick came up with it. That's. That's a genius idea.
- [32:17]
Chad Millman
Yeah, it's completely contrary. Right. Like, because also there's a lot of conversations like Xavier Worthy is going to be Simon. I don't even know if you've noticed this. Like, Xavier Worthy is going to be one of those players who people want to bet on MVP that isn't Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Patrick Mahomes. Right. Because that's what always happens. You want to bet on that receiver, you know, who has longish odds, who's the recipient of all the passes as a contrarian play to the quarterback who is most likely to win.
- [32:53]
Simon Hunter
It could be. And also, I don't hate it just because we've already seen the Eagles, as good as they are, they do have some guys that are young and experienced. And you saw that with Terry McLaren, right. One missed tackle and he broke it. And the same could be same here with Worthy. It's like the type of defense that, yeah, if you make one guy miss the way the Eagles play aggressive, especially with their safeties, he could easily break one. But we've seen the Eagles, they have some really good, great corners. So, you know, if they put Quinon Mitchell on them, his night might be over. And then you're good to go, though. You got the one catch, right? Touchdown, and this comes through. So I definitely love the. The mind game of this one where it's like, Annie Reed will find a way to get this guy the ball, but it's all about the matchup. So he gets the wrong corner on him, he just won't get the touches. So yeah, that feels a little high to me. Honestly, having him over five and a half receptions, it's did attack the Eagles. You attack the middle of the field. Right. We've seen that with the tight ends these last couple weeks. So interesting that that's that high.
- [33:44]
Chad Millman
That was at about 4 to 1 last week when Giffen talked about it on the show. Raybon, you and Stucky talked a little bit about Dallas Goddard on the Action Network podcast on the Six Pack. Stuckey's been making bank on Dallas Goddard during the playoffs. Do you have any thoughts on his receptions totals which are getting kind of exp. Kind of high and on his yardage totals? Again, he's been a guy who throughout the playoffs everyone at action has been betting what do you like or not like about his current prices?
- [34:22]
Chris Raybon
So I think his reception prop is. Is too high. Like you're betting him to get five catches. There's a lot of ways that that could backfire. You know, Eagles explosive plays in either facet that are not Dallas Goddard Eagles to just have one of those games where they pass on their, you know, like 25 times, which is a very common thing for them. There's a lot of ways that could go wrong. So I would rather go with the yardage because I think he. The Chiefs, they've given up the most yards to tight ends. Like that's. They struggle with tight ends. Goddard's the most likely to get a matchup on the. The weakest Chiefs defender on the field, whoever that might be, Bolton, you know, whoever in coverage. So I think the yardage is better. But. And going back to the Worthy thing, I think what's interesting with Worthy is. And the reason why his reception number is higher is because Andy Reid loves screens. In the postseason, into two games, Worthy's had five screens thrown to him total. Those are usually free catches, but he's actually only caught three of the five. Usually you're expecting him to catch five of the five. So I think that's why the books are, you know, at that five and a half number for. For Worthy. But five, six catches is a lot. It's easier to get when you get screens. But Goddard to get five is. That's. That's kind of a stretch. You know, I think the median is closer to four, but. So I would go yardage if I'm trying to.
- [35:44]
Chad Millman
To.
- [35:45]
Chris Raybon
To bat Goddard at this point.
- [35:46]
Chad Millman
Yeah. What's interesting about those screens, and it speaks to what you talked about earlier, Raybon, is what the Chiefs have done is Turn themselves into a quick passing screen, long handoff off offense. Maybe it's because of how they're being played downfield, but also because I think Andy Reid is just trying to account for that. That is offensive line.
- [36:10]
Chris Raybon
Yeah.
- [36:10]
Chad Millman
It's just completely trash. There's nothing else he can do.
- [36:14]
Chris Raybon
Yeah. And he has some speed now. He has some speed at the receiver positions with, with Brown and Worthy. So now they can make it work. I mean, if you think about the receiving core, Hopkins, Juju and Marquis Brown, like they're kind of like afterthoughts, but like these guys are all like thousand yard, you know, former number one receivers. Not even that long ago, but. And then were these kind of the key cogs. So they have, they have enough pieces now to kind of make it work with the quick game.
- [36:39]
Chad Millman
Yeah, but when you name all those players, Hopkins, juju, Brown, and you compare them to AJ Brown, Devontae Smith, like there's so many places in this game where the roster is overwhelmingly talent wise in favor of the Eagles. The only thing the Chiefs have happens to be the two most important things. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
- [37:10]
Chris Raybon
Yeah. Because even Spags, Spags and Fangio. I mean, Fangio is no Spags, but he's. He's up there. He's up there.
- [37:16]
Chad Millman
Oh, no, I. Listen to me, this game is about Spags, Reed and Mahomes. That's why you bet on the Chiefs. At the end of the day, I want to get into the sides and the totals a little bit, you know, at the end before we get out of here. But Kerner, give me your next best prop. Yeah.
- [37:35]
Matt Castle
So I'm going to go with this. Will any player have 100 plus rushing yards? I'm going to go with no at plus 210. And obviously Saquon Barkley is a serious threat to this prop. I'm pretty much in line with his, his rushing yard prop. I have it around 110. I agree with Raybon earlier saying, you know, it could be a little bit high still, but at the end of the day, I'm giving him around a 58 chance or you know, minus 140 to clear 100 yards. But if he stays under that, like, who the hell else is going to clear this number? Both quarterbacks have rushing upside, but neither one has cleared 100 yards this season. The last time either one has cleared it was Jalen Hurts back in week 12 three seasons ago. Back in 2022, you know, cream hunt might need 30 plus carries to clear 100 yards. So I'm showing about, you know, a 5% chance a non Barkley player here's 100 yards. But if you think about it like that, 5% of the time, most of the time like Barkley's also clearing 100 yards. So you know, in that situation you'd have two players clear honey yard. So in my sim I, I have it closer to about, you know, 61% chance. We, we do see a player, probably Saquon Barkley clear it. So I, I have the fair price of no player closer to, you know, plus 155 to not clear 100 yards. So I'm showing quite a bit of value on this. No, at plus 210 right now.
- [39:07]
Chad Millman
I am not surprised at all that the pattern we are seeing develop here is lower rushing totals, which is in line with expectations. The Chiefs are doing something to put the Eagles in a disadvantageous position where they have to come back. Raybon, what's your last bet?
- [39:31]
Chris Raybon
So I actually think that the, the, the theme is just offensive numbers in general are inflated. So for this one I'm going with combined passing touchdowns for both teams under two and a half at plus 150. And this may seem scary, but if you look at the Eagles playoff games, under two and a half passing touchdowns combined has hit in all three. They've had two exactly in each. Kansas City even had a playoff game where they only had one combined passing touchdown in that, in that, in that Houston game. So four out of the five playoff games between these two teams thus far, you've gone under this number. And then you look at it for the season and Kansas City about 7 of 18 and the Eagles 11 of 18. So it's about a 50, 50 shot. So I think this should be a lot closer to even money. I have it at about about plus 125 fair odds. So I bet this to about plus 130 here. But you know, just going off the past data, it's about even money. And if you look at Hurts, one or fewer passing touchdowns, 11 of 18 starts, he has no three touchdown games. So Mahomes has about four. So he could ruin it. But there's a very good chance that, you know, with the Eagles red zone defense strength and you know, the way the Eagles like to do their business with the tush push and whatnot, that you stay under this number. And I think it's being, it's being undervalued here because who wants to bet under, you know, two and a half touchdowns with passing touchdowns with Mahomes? Nobody. So yeah, give me under two and a half combined passing touchdowns at plus 150.
- [41:16]
Chad Millman
Well, also this is perfectly correlated to your first prop, which is over one and a half field goals by the Chiefs. If you believe that the Chiefs will kick more than one and a half field goals, then part of you has to believe that Patrick Mahomes is not going to throw multiple touchdown passes, which makes this a perfect combination.
- [41:37]
Chris Raybon
And he can also run. He's running a lot more. You know, he showed he'd even, you know, take a designed run around and go on. So there's a lot of different, a lot of different outs. But yeah, in general, I think offensive numbers are, are inflated in the market and, you know, probably waiting till closer to the end of the week, some of the other prop shows will do to do some player props because those are going to keep going up. But that, that's kind of the theme for, I think both of us is just kind of finding these inflated offensive numbers pass or run.
- [42:03]
Simon Hunter
I love this play too, because both these teams play a certain style on offense which is super conservative and safe. And we know the deal when you get in the red zone that, that literally will kill. Can kill the game. Right. If you make a red zone turnover. So one of my favorite bets that correlates with this is Eagles over one and a half rushing touchdowns. It's minus 130. A lot of books I'm seeing bet365 is already up to minus 140. I still love that price for that prop just because I think Eagles, you've seen it time and time again, like it can be second and eight, third and eight, and the Eagles are running on that down if they can just get it to 2 yards. And they usually think the defensive drop back. So I think there's a lot of opportunity playing then. I agree with Chris that, you know, both these teams, when they do get down there, they do play conservative, like they just don't want to turn the ball over. That's just both been their M.O. because they just believe in both their defenses. So I do love this play and there's a lot of ways to correlate it with a lot of other props.
- [42:54]
Chad Millman
Well, look, these are all props that are tending towards a game in which we expect it to go under. And that under now is anywhere from 48 and a half to 49 and a half. Most places 48 and a half. Bet 365 is still at 49 and a half. I guess that like in any other game, it makes sense. But if you look at the past Super Bowls, the second half, four, five, six touchdowns scored with the Chiefs, all in games other than that Bucks game where I think they were losing by a touchdown, by 10 points, how do we factor in the explosive nature of sort of unexpected outcomes in a Super Bowl, Simon?
- [43:43]
Simon Hunter
I mean, it's tough to say. Like a lot of the, a lot of the players that talk about it say it's because of the halftime. Right? They're just not, they're not used to going from 10 minute halftime to 30 minute halftime. And that's just, you know, the human element of that, that's a big deal, right? That's a lot of really high adrenaline, especially heading to the game the first half. And now you're just relaxing for 30 minutes. And to me, both these teams should know how to handle that, right? I mean they were literally played against each other just two years ago. And like to your point, the Chiefs, they've been the best team. I mean, maybe, I mean, I guess Tom Brady was great at it too, but they're incredible. Second half, I mean every time Mahomes is down, you know, 10 points or whatever going to halftime in the super bowl, he comes out on fire. And even that Eagles game, you go back and watch it, I think he scored three straight touchdowns and then kicked a field goal at the end to win it all. So yeah, that's, that's an interesting point you bring up, Chad. It's, it's clearly affected the defense is more so than the offense. We've seen mo. Both teams usually come out on fire in the second half rather than the first half.
- [44:43]
Chad Millman
The first half total right now, I'm just checking here in the Action network app is 24, 23 and a half or 24 and a half depending on where you look. Does anybody have an opinion on the first half total? Knowing there might be some kookiness in the second half and for the ranking, for the, for the record like luck rankings. Kerner, we had Nick on. There is no advantage luck rankings wise in this game for the total or the side for that matter.
- [45:17]
Matt Castle
Yeah, yeah, I do tend to lean towards the under here. We've been talking about it. Both teams play pretty methodically. They, they run the ball a ton. Maybe we won't see a Saquon Barkley 60 plus yard rushing touchdown here and it actually takes them, you know, seven or eight more plays to score if they do. But yeah, I'm leaning towards the other. That's an interesting take to just take the first half done under. I Might consider that especially, you know, a number like 24, if you can get that key number. I think that makes a ton of sense, but I think if anything, yeah, I'll be on the under here.
- [45:52]
Chad Millman
All right, well, that's what was going to be my next question. Raybon, I know where you stand. Tell the listeners, tell the viewers your opinion on the side. Total winning team, whatever it is.
- [46:08]
Chris Raybon
Yeah, I think the Chiefs are the right side. I think the Eagles have the better roster. I do agree with that. But I look at the way Spagnolo has been able to. To scheme against top rushing attacks in the last two Super Bowls. Just, you know, like those are bad Kansas City run defenses that he used, you know, kind of disguises, and he just kind of pulled different things out of his hat. You keep thinking he's going to, you know, run out of ways and he. And he keeps figuring it out. And I think the real key matchup here is like, I think Saquon will get his, you know, like, as. As he has all year. Like, you're not going to fully stop Saquon, so. But I think the key for Spags is he can do a lot of things pre snap that just makes Jalen Hurts think, you know, a lot of different looks, blitzes from all over the place, switching into different fronts in the run game and you know, coverage wise that you're going to challenge Hurts to make checks at the line of scrimmage over and over. And he's, he's gotten better at that. But still, I wouldn't say he's, you know, up there yet. So I think that's really the key. And on the other side, I think we saw the, the. Even the Commanders move the ball against the Eagles. It was just the turnovers they couldn't overcome. You know, you're not going to probably get that with the Chiefs. You know, I would, I would be surprised if the Chiefs turn it over more than maybe once if that. And so you're going to be able to just kind of dink and dunk and you'll probably have to kick some field goals. But at the end of the day, I trust Spags and I trust my home. So rolling with the Chiefs minus one and a half. And if you want to take like an exact. Like the last two Super Bowls have been exactly 3.3 points in favor of the Chiefs too. So you can, you could take like an exact or. But I wouldn't. I wouldn't hesitate to kind of take something in that real like Chiefs by one to six. Or something like that too.
- [47:53]
Chad Millman
Kroner, you. You hinted under give a strong opinion about anything.
- [48:00]
Matt Castle
Well, I, I tend to. I'm gonna have like, you know, 15 to 20 props. So I kind of see what I'm going to be rooting for and what correlates and whatnot. But I'll probably pass on, you know, the side. But I think, yeah, the under. Waiting to see. I'm curious, do you guys think it'll go back up, go down? But I. I feel like waiting on the under would make sense because you're going to get more money to come in towards the end. So just trying to time what the best number would be. Maybe like you just recommended looking at the first half, but I feel like when you're waiting for the under, you can just kind of see if the market will go up once we get a little bit more public money in on the over.
- [48:38]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Simon, I'm curious your thoughts on that. Yeah.
- [48:41]
Simon Hunter
And I'll just start with Chris's point. Either team to win by exactly three. Right now, I'm Beth365. Yes. Is plus 400. So that, that's a nice exacto bet. And you know, we've seen Mahomes, you know, other than that crazy overtime usually likes to win these games by three. Right. That's. That's the. Their M.O. they play the clock, they let it run and they kick the fuel and they win. Or if they're up by three, they'll just run the clock out. So, yeah, it's. It's a pretty good number right now over at Beth365. Yeah, my view of the chat was I'm. I was with Sean. I thought I could be patient on this total. And you know, I'm having a good time over the weekend. I get a, you know, a message that some respected money was coming in on the under and a lot of books were about to move it. I had to run around, try to find as many 49 and a half I could and it's gone. Like I know you just said. Do you think it's at Beth 365? I think it's just a glitch on our app. I'm looking at their book right now. It's 49, so.
- [49:36]
Chad Millman
Oh, really? Okay.
- [49:37]
Simon Hunter
If you could still find the 492, I'd definitely grab it. It is a key number, but it's pretty insane. The books took a stand on this just because Sean just broke it down. Like all the money right now early is on the over. That's Going to be four times the amount come Sunday. Like the Joe Public betters, they haven't really bet this game yet. They're, they're just, you know, waiting till that next paycheck come on Friday and they'll lay it into this super bowl year. So to me, if you miss the 40 and a half, be patient. Like the books. Yeah, they might move it through the key number of eight, 48 and a half. But I would be shocked just because they have no need to like the amount of money pouring in right now in the over. It just has to offset this professional money that is coming on this under. So yeah, I would say if you miss the, the 49 half, be patient. I do believe they'll go back because right now it's, it's overwhelming the amount of money right now in the over. So the fact they have moved at a couple 48 and a half to a couple of respective books, it is pretty shocking.
- [50:34]
Chad Millman
All right, so many more super bowl props from Ray Ban, from Kerner, from Nick Giffen, from Grant Nee for our final two pack of Super bowl prop live shows is tomorrow February 5th. There'll be another tandem of 30ish minute live shows on the Action Network YouTube channel. Try to catch these lives. The numbers get crushed. They just do. Like I couldn't watch live last week. I was traveling by the time I could listen to the show trying to get some of these numbers. Not that easy. So listen live if you can and good luck if you can't. Just like last week. Part one will be at 4pm Eastern with Nick and Grant. Part two with Raybon and Kerner at 6pm Once again Wednesday Super bowl prop shows 4pm Eastern, 6pm Eastern Action Network YouTube page. Want to make extra money daily from your sports betting? Simon knows I'm always trying to find ways to take sports betting to the next level. That's why I'm excited to tell you about Edge Boost, the financial platform that pays you cash back to wager. Edge Boost is an online bank account that pays you for every deposit. With the Edge Boost Visa debit card you receive up to half a percent cash back on all your sportsbook, daily fantasy site and casino transaction that transactions that's free money back in your pocket for doing what you're already doing. It's a no brainer. Plus your Edge Boost debit card starts with a $250,000 daily limit and will never be declined for gambling activity. They've got built in tools to help you stay responsible and there are absolutely no hidden fees or minimum required balances. Stop leaving money on the table. Visit edgeboost Bet today to learn more and sign up. That's edgeboost bet. I gotta say, I used it used this past week. Not only was it super easy, but then I did get the cash back in my account. It was great. I was so excited.
- [52:41]
Bobby Bones
Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else you can find a show with. With that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but, like, all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like, it's all colored. They changed it and the. The heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest. It was a little pink.
- [53:24]
Simon Hunter
There was something sentimental when you.
- [53:27]
Chad Millman
When you send it, it's like, do.
- [53:29]
Sean Kerner
I send the heart now?
- [53:31]
Bobby Bones
I don't like the color edition.
- [53:32]
Jason Saidi
It's extremely pink.
- [53:34]
Bobby Bones
Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [53:40]
Chad Millman
We had announced after the conference championship games that we were doing Our Super Bowl 59 get your prop on the board at bet365Contest. This is a contest that I started back in my ESPN days when we were doing the behind the bets podcast with bookmaker Bob Scoochie, who ran all the Boyd Gaming casinos as the bookmaker back in Las Vegas. And he was the regular co host for this show both when I was at ESPN and in the early days of the favorites here with action and Scooch would open it up, we'd have listeners send in their quippiest yet bettable props, and Scooch would put him on the board. Bet365 carries on the tradition. We had so many entries. Matt Mitchell, you're going to give us some honorable mentions and the finalists stick around and you'll get an interview that me and Simon did with the winner of the contest, Matt Mitchell.
- [54:42]
Sean Kerner
Hot damn, this is fun. Thank you, Chad. I will note before I begin this that this began so long ago. I can Remember listening to these episodes at my normal terrible 9 to 5 human job. And I would submit every year and mine might have been the worst of all. So like I do want to stress that my selections here of what I, what I liked and what I submitted to to bet365 is not a judgment on those that did not make it. I'm sure they were far better than the ones that I did 10 years ago. Okay, first of all, I want to call out to that played into the hands of our sponsor Tommy John who again is in no way affiliated with this, but it was good pandering and I and I love good pandering. The first is Sam Householder whose prop was big sacks, total sacks over under three and a half. And our beloved super fan Chloe Chris Acopolis. Give me that D which was Devontae Smith, Deandre Hopkins and the big D himself, Dallas Goddard. All over their receiving yards.
- [55:54]
Chad Millman
Standing.
- [55:55]
Sean Kerner
Yep. So no big sacks or give me that D. You're free to bet those yourself under whatever title you'd like. Okay, so now here are the official honorable mention. So these were ones that just missed the cut of being submitted to bet365. Also from our friend Chloe Go Goddard. Dallas Goddard. Five or more catches, 60 or more yards, a touchdown and Super Bowl MVP. This one from Piers Eaton. This is Big City Lights. One touchdown reception each for Hollywood Brown, Dallas Goddard and Paris Campbell. Little play on the three of their names.
- [56:33]
Chad Millman
That's fantastic.
- [56:35]
Sean Kerner
Yeah, pretty good. Pretty good way. It's a shame that Paris Campbell's like non viable entity in the in the playoffs. But it's very clever. Points for being clever. Michael Freeberg had two that play into the storyline that it is both Saquon Barkley and Cooper Dean's birthday on Super Bowl Sunday. First is the Eagles birthday bash. Saquon, two touchdowns and a Cooper interception. And this one which I found very clever. Saquon's 28 Saquon to record 28 rush plus receiving yards in each quarter.
- [57:09]
Chad Millman
Oh, that is good.
- [57:12]
Sean Kerner
Yeah, we have a. Oh, this was Gideon Martin. I'm sorry Gideon, that you did not win but you did submit two that I really enjoyed. First is winning Hertz losing Hertz Eagles moneyline Hertz does not win mvp. And one of my very favorites, a return from whence ye came Carson Wentz to attempt a pass.
- [57:37]
Chad Millman
Oh well look, that was a big one. Raybone and Stuckey had a long conversation about, you know, would someone other than a quarterback attempt to pass. I feel like we should have gotten bet. Maybe we can get bet 3, 6, 5. To do an alternative one just for that because that's pretty good and that's going to be one that I think a lot of people would be interested in.
- [57:59]
Sean Kerner
Dave Helfen submitted fail to the Chiefs. The Eagles win on a go ahead score with under 13 seconds remaining in regulation. I'll special fuck you to me the person reading it. So thanks Dave.
- [58:16]
Simon Hunter
It's true.
- [58:18]
Sean Kerner
Stephen Contreras, another great one. Obi Wan Mahoney and Quan Solo, Saquon and Mahomes to combine for 400 plus passing, rushing and receiving yards.
- [58:31]
Chad Millman
Well, that one feels really interesting. Kerner and Raybone, can you do top of your head projections? Saquon, you both have it like one between 105 and 110 rushing. Mahomes, I don't know what you have for his passing yardage, I don't know what you've seen.
- [58:46]
Chris Raybon
42, 45 to 50. So that's. That would be about 360.
- [58:52]
Matt Castle
Barkley.
- [58:53]
Chris Raybon
Yeah, and then you'd have about 30 rushing for Mahomes. That's. That's 390. And then another like 10, 15 receiving for. Yeah, so I guess the median would be around 400ish.
- [59:05]
Chad Millman
That's incredible. I wonder how much research. Because you know what was fun about these back in the day, people would send research, they would send spreadsheets, they would send images about how they were doing it. So I wonder if this guy went back and did a lot of research, because people usually do that. It's fascinating.
- [59:20]
Sean Kerner
Oh, I still got 9,000 page emails with people showing me their math and I want to be like, I can't stress this enough. Bet365 will do the math. You don't need to do the math there. They're not going to take your word for how this should be priced.
- [59:35]
Chad Millman
I love it. It's great.
- [59:37]
Sean Kerner
This one is very important. Before I get to our six finalists, I do want to congratulate longtime listener Brian Goldberg and his son Gerald, who I think of every time I let one of you use extended profanity. Sorry, earmuffs, Gerald, but I want to thank you because your submission allowed me to go on this quick rant. This one was called Pick Licks L I X. Will there be a pick six in super bowl lx? And I just want to say that probably the simplest example of the decline of American sports in general and our descent into academic and artistic malaise more specifically can be found in the NFL's treatment of their beloved super bowl logo and what used to be our Annual national embrace of Roman numerals. Because we used to have original designs for each of these Super Bowls. Everyone on this show is old enough to remember those. They were incredible. They were bright and they were original. They represented a time and a place, which is kind of what the super bowl is. Every season's its own thing. But then, because the NFL is, you know, a multi billion dollar organization run with the artistic vision of a Connecticut law firm, it's now delivered like a decade and a half of the most soulless paint by number monstrosities of a logo. But worse of all, they've encouraged the use of normal non roman numerals throughout the media, which you'll never see in the description of one of these podcasts. And you know, people will complain. Well, I don't know Roman numerals. That's the whole goddamn point is every year you get a brief lesson on Roman numerals. Your dad explains them to you or a trusted adult or a Roman, and you learn a little bit about it and we say, isn't that kitschy and fun? And then we go back to using regular ass numbers for everything else. So I just wanted to thank you, the Goldbergs, for. For letting me go on that brief rant.
- [61:41]
Chris Raybon
Going back to my roots.
- [61:44]
Chad Millman
Yeah, thanks Goldbergs. That was really great.
- [61:48]
Sean Kerner
Okay, now, who are six finalists? These were submitted to bet365 and their trading team selected the winner. Number one, Damian Glick, who was one of at least 40 people to submit a prop called Hertz so Good, aka the Melon Camp. This one was Jalen Hurts. 250 plus yards, 50 plus rushing yards, two plus passing touchdowns, a rushing touchdown, Eagles moneyline and Hurts MVP. So basically the. The Hurts so Good is the Jalen Hurts career game. The second most common title is from Pierce Eaton, who had the best version of it, which is all Barkley, no bite. Saquon Barkley, 15 or more rush attempts, under 100 yards rushing, no touchdowns, which I felt like a very Sean and Chris style prop.
- [62:54]
Chad Millman
Yes, totally. They basically get. They basically just gave that.
- [62:57]
Sean Kerner
Yeah, number three from John Reevey. Oh, say Quan, you see Saquon rushing yards versus the National Anthem length in seconds as Saquon's total is currently at 115.5 somewhere around there and national anthem is somewhere around 120.121seconds. So a very good prop, very cleverly named number four, Ray Hogan. The three peat. Three for the Chiefs to three peat by exactly three points on their third successful field goal in the last three Minutes of regulation, big time play.
- [63:35]
Chad Millman
Oh my goodness, what a play.
- [63:38]
Chris Raybon
Every time he, he does another one.
- [63:39]
Sean Kerner
We thought he's made his all time best. And look at this unbelievable number five from someone just called lastif. This is the three cheat Philly to have three or more accepted penalties than the Kansas City Chiefs.
- [63:58]
Chad Millman
I get it, I get it. The favoritism.
- [64:01]
Sean Kerner
Indeed. Indeed. All right, our last one, which will be revealed in full in the interview you're about to hear between Chad and the winner, Jason Saidi. I will tease but will tell you that as a reminder to find this winning submission and bet it yourself. Just go to bet365 and look under Super Bowl 50 specials. You will find this bet and loads more just like it. Again, bet365 under Super Bowl 50 specials. And now I'll turn it to you, Chad.
- [64:38]
Chad Millman
All right, it's time to reveal the winner of our get your prop up on bet365 Super bowl big board contest. I feel like this prop, I don't want to reveal it yet, but I know this prop and its name is something that you can appreciate.
- [64:54]
Simon Hunter
I'm hoping it's, it's Eagles related, then.
- [64:56]
Chad Millman
It will be Eagles related. Let's bring in, let's bring in the winner of the prop contest. His name is Jason Sidey from Claremont, Florida. He is a control systems guru at Universal Studios in Orlando. Jason, congrats. Welcome to the show, brother.
- [65:18]
Jason Saidi
Hey, guys. Thank you. I'm happy to be here.
- [65:20]
Chad Millman
Where does this honor rank, do you think, in sort of your history of awards and accomplishments?
- [65:28]
Jason Saidi
Let's see, besides the birth of my daughter and marrying my wife is right behind that at number three.
- [65:33]
Chad Millman
Those are barely two things that might qualify as being better than this. I do want you to reveal the name of the prop and tell people what it is. And then I want to get into how you thought of it and all that kind of good stuff. But let's reveal the name of the prop that people can go bet at bet365 right now.
- [65:50]
Simon Hunter
Yeah.
- [65:50]
Jason Saidi
So the prop name is always runny in Philadelphia and the, the prop is for the Eagles to have over 280.
- [66:00]
Chad Millman
Rushing yards, which would be a Super bowl record, right?
- [66:03]
Jason Saidi
Which would be a Super bowl record.
- [66:04]
Chad Millman
And right now at bet365, I think you can get that. I think it's a plus 1600. You can get that at bet365. Simon and always sunny prop. That might be the most apt prop we've ever had for this show.
- [66:20]
Chris Raybon
If life pushes you down, you Gotta push back. If you're dealt a bunch of lemons.
- [66:25]
Chad Millman
You gotta take those lemons and stuff.
- [66:27]
Chris Raybon
Them down somebody's throat until they see yellow.
- [66:30]
Simon Hunter
Especially where that's an amazing record. I had no idea it was that many rushing yards. So I definitely love the play. 16 to 1. Come on, give us 20 to 1. Better. Give us better odds here. But yeah, I love that play.
- [66:41]
Chad Millman
You know, it's funny, we felt like those were pretty good given the circumstances. Jason, how did you think of the prop?
- [66:47]
Jason Saidi
Well, so a good prop really needs three things, right? You need the catchy name, you need something you can't really bet. It's like a normal bet. And the third thing, you need to have something that's, you know, it's. It's probably going to have plus odds because as you both say, the book is not your friend.
- [67:03]
Sean Kerner
They are here.
- [67:05]
Chad Millman
That is true.
- [67:05]
Simon Hunter
I'm definitely going to be betting this because that's the best way for the Eagles to win right now, is for Saquon to be running it. So I'm be happily going to be making this bet, Chad, especially at those odds.
- [67:14]
Chad Millman
As you and I have both said for the past couple weeks, we're on the Chiefs here. So the best way to invest in the Eagles at a high return with relatively low investment is a bet like this because it does mean the Eagles are dominating the game. Jason, do you have a betting interest in the game?
- [67:36]
Jason Saidi
I have a Super bowl ticket on the Eagles, so I will be rooting for the Eagles. One thing with this. So I was looking at the Eagles box scores this year. They've hit this number twice. First time in the regular season against the Rams, and then they hit it again in the playoffs against the Rams. I'm hoping the Chiefs also can't stop Saquon.
- [67:54]
Chad Millman
How long have you been betting?
- [67:55]
Jason Saidi
I've been playing poker for a long, long time. And so, you know, sports gambling, you know, was right right along with that. So, you know, since. Since I was a kid, probably.
- [68:06]
Chad Millman
Awesome. Well, listen, we're thrilled you submitted it. There were great entries. This was the runaway hit. Matt Mitchell, you know, he's the arbiter of all these things and it takes a lot to make Matt Mitchell laugh a little bit and be tickled.
- [68:21]
Sean Kerner
Do you think it would kill you to say, good job, Matt?
- [68:24]
Chad Millman
So, Jason Sidey, Claremont, Florida, always runny in Philadelphia, plus 1600. I'm bet365 right now. Thanks for listening to the favorites. Thanks for playing the contest. I hope this cashes. I hope you make bank on Super Bowl Sunday.
- [68:40]
Jason Saidi
Well, thank you guys. I appreciate it.
- [68:43]
Chad Millman
As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get 150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call-1800- gambler-1-800, bets off in Iowa. Terms Conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page 11am Eastern Thursday to talk our Super Bowl Best Bets with Brandon Anderson. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods Rate Review, subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER. Buy five quarts of Castrol Edge full.
- [70:02]
Sean Kerner
Synthetic motor oil and get a $15.
- [70:04]
Chris Raybon
Gift card after rebate plus 2 times.
- [70:06]
Chad Millman
Points at O'Reilly Auto Parts.
- [70:12]
Bobby Bones
Auto Parts hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have a over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirror ball trophy from Dancing With a Star. So where else you can find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say With Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [70:45]
Justin Pennik
What's up everyone? It's Justin Pennock from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week. On Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be GLAD you did.
- [71:15]
AJ Stephens
$1.54 billion in NFL quarterback contracts the untold stories behind the biggest deals in football history. I'm AJ Stephens, Vice President of Client strategy at Athletes first, introducing the Athletes First Family podcast, the Quarterback Series. My co host Brian Murphy, Athletes First CEO and I are sitting down with the agents who have negotiated contracts for Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Tua Tungavailoa and Jordan in Love. Listen to athletes first family podcasts on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.