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- [00:00]
Simon Hunter
Foreign.
- [00:11]
Chad Millman
The podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today is our Tuesday Super Bowl 59 recap episode. Last night we reached the end of a long, winding, thrilling, sickening, glorious, depressing, fun filled, drama inducing, maddening, uplifting season. It was everything betting is supposed to be. We won some, we lost some, we made good calls, bad calls, got lucky and unlucky. Unfortunately, we cannot bet an NFL game for another seven months, which feels like a lifetime. As such, our schedule does adjust a little bit. The favorites will take Thursday off this week and next week just one episode this week, one episode next week. After that we return to our normal Tuesday, Thursday off season schedule as we did last year. The show will still be primarily NFL betting. Focus Free Agency, Draft futures, thoughts on modeling, off season prep, all that kind of good stuff. We will have some special episodes for the biggest betting events such as the Oscars coming up in a couple of weeks. But now, live from our Tommy John home studios, I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.
- [01:48]
Simon Hunter
Hello Chad. What am I supposed to do? Am I supposed to be depressed, better or a really happy Eagles fan? Tell me what I should do on the show.
- [01:54]
Chad Millman
I'll tell you exactly what. You're going to be okay. Because you told me last night what you were me, you, Matt Mitchell were texting. It was the last text we got from you was right before I went to bed. As everyone knows, you're a Nevada Eagles fan. And the text was this is the greatest night of my life. So let's hear it. Tell me all about it.
- [02:16]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I definitely had a good night. Broad Street, Philadelphia, man. No. No better place to be after you win a championship. No. Surreal. Honestly, watch with some friends end up going to the sports book. Once I saw how big we were up and I'm like I'm going to go try to cash some of these tickets right now. I was just had a little too much to drink. Feeling way too good, you know. Had a buddy just drive me all around, all around Philadelphia, good guy. And yeah, I would say, not that I knew right away as an Eagles fan, but when that pick six happened, I mean the sports book I thought was going to collapse on itself. But like in my own mind I was just like, it's over. They have broken something. Mahomes does not ever make that type of mistake. And the fact that he gets the ball back and next Play throws another pick to the Zach Braun. I'm just like, oh my God, this is actually going to happen. Just because, you know, I would say any Eagles fans has this feeling that we are losers. If you're a Philadelphia sports fan your whole life, you basically have lost and you're always waiting for them. The worst thing to happen and all I could think about was the 28 to 3 Falcons, honestly. And when they got that next pick, easy touchdown pass the AJ and the Eagles basically had more points in the first half. 24th and the Chiefs had yards. 23. You knew it was over there. There's just no way. It doesn't matter what happens in the locker room. Like not to make fun and on that Atlanta team once again, but it's like their defense is not comparable to this Eagles defense. And I just remember thinking there's no way this going to let down. So yeah, did, did some really crazy moves end up on Broad street at the end of the game and yeah, just an insane fan base. Like I was talking to our Bruce where he came on Gif. It's like there's people out there who have tons of love in their heart and happiness and there's other people out there that are just evil and mischievous and you know, I saw some horrible shit, but I saw a lot of great shit. So nothing, nothing short of expected in Philadelphia. And it's just everyone's in shock. Like everyone just kept saying to each other, I, I can't believe we did it. I can't believe we beat Mahomes and Tom Brady. Like, you're going to beat the best to be the best. That's the definition of it. So yeah, obviously you can see I'm still riding pretty high. I just, it's surreal. I've probably slept two hours, so I'm, I, I'm losing my mind a little bit. I'm just so fired up.
- [04:54]
Chad Millman
So I, let me do, let me, let me get some, some business out of the way. But I have some thoughts on what you were just saying. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365. Now new bet365 customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code favorites deposit10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older in present in Arizona Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. Before we get into this, we're having another live event. This is going to be March 29th. Joe's on weed in Chicago. That's the name of the street. Weed. Joe's on Weed in Chicago, my hometown. We did Simon's Hometown in December in Philly. We're doing Chicago in March. Matt Mitchell, my throne to you. Are you going to give more details here? Is that the idea?
- [06:07]
Matt Mitchell
Guys, I am unbelievably excited about this live event. I was hoping we could do it in Chicago. We were able to convince them of that. I was hoping we do it at Joe's. Joe's bar on Wheat street, commonly and affectionately known as Joe's on Weed. We got that. I was hoping it would be March 29th, the evening of the Elite Eight. We got that. And I was really hoping we'd get that big private concert space that they have at Joe's. The last time I was there it was when Ronda Rousey got her ass beat by Holly Holm. I got to watch it in that room. So I think we'll have an absolute blast. RSVP site is not quite ready, but please save the date. It will be March 29th, Joe's on Weed, Chicago, Illinois for the exciting launch of BET 365 in Illinois. Probably like 4:30. Then we'll do a live show. Then the first game will tip. We'll all hang out, watch the game, sweat it along and then we'll all stick around for that, for that second game at Joe's afterwards. So mark your calendars. March 29 and we're going to have.
- [07:12]
Chad Millman
Some special college basketball guests, right?
- [07:14]
Matt Mitchell
Absolutely. We will almost certainly be joined by Stuckey and some others from the action universe. It'll be a a great time. Whether or not you care about the Elite Eight. Just come because it's going to be an absolute riot.
- [07:27]
Simon Hunter
God damn, this is fun.
- [07:30]
Chad Millman
I saw these pictures from Broad street last night and tell me where you were standing. Tell me a little bit about what you saw because just the images seemed like you couldn't get close and that it was mayhem packed inside of chaos wrapped in a bow of complete and total ear splitting universe coming apart phenomenons.
- [08:03]
Simon Hunter
Sure. Well, if you don't know the layout of the city, basically Broad street, it's basically a road that runs from north all the way to south. And our city hall is in the middle of it, and, like, basically it's. It's huge, Chad. So, I mean, you can get into Broad street pretty easily. The hardest part, if you're trying to make your way to city hall, yeah, you're going through tons of bodies, especially if you're going from north to south. Where I was at, like, again, there was a ton of people, but it's like, you know, I probably walked. You probably walked 10 blocks because you're just walking all along. Everyone's just walking up and down, celebrating all together. So, yeah, it's. It's jam packed, but it's. It was pretty easy to move around. The crazy thing is people shooting off fireworks. Like, in the city, in between these massive buildings, people are just shooting off fireworks. It's surreal to see. It really is. It's like the craziest thing ever. You know, people getting married and get engaged in front of people. You know, I joke. A gift, right? Like, I saw, you know, people that doing things they shouldn't be doing. Cops taking it to a level they shouldn't take it to, but, like, they're trying to control the mayhem, you know, and it was just. It was really great for two hours. Then once it hit midnight, like one, the gremlins really did come out. Like, the water got on their backs and all of a sudden it went evil mode. Like you just saw. I was just remember turning to the friend I was with, I was like, you ready? And he's like, yeah, let's get the out of here. Because again, we're. He's just like, me. He's in his mid-30s. And it was like, all right, I've had enough. He was sober. He was a true trooper. I can't get over it. I was blacked out. So I'm like, in my mind, I was like, it's the best night ever. But even I was like, okay, it's time to go. Like, this is. This is getting a little. A little crazier. But yeah, like, it's. You know, any. Anyone tell that one's a Super Bowl? It's surreal. It doesn't set in, but it's a thousand times better because losing is just so horrible where, like, it affects you so horribly and just weighs on you until the following season, which, like, you just said, it's super depressing. It's like 200 days away. Thank God we won. Because it's just, you know, especially someone like me who's like, our Jaylen Herz truther. It's like, holy, what are they going to say now. They can't say anything. It's the best. It really is. It. It's. It's too much. I get why people absolutely hate Eagles fans, because even, like last night, hearing these people talk, it's like, calm down. He's not better than Lamar. Okay, people, let's. Let's bring it down a level. But everyone's just so high right now. Everyone's just flying that, you know, everyone just. We're just so happy for her. He just was. So much doubt, so much hate. And in two Super Bowls, he stepped up both times. It's crazy.
- [10:40]
Chad Millman
You know, I was texting with my kid who's a Drexel, and he. You know, all. He has so many friends who are from the New Jersey area because Drexel is a pretty local school who are all freaking out. One of his friends that he lives with is a massive Eagles fan, watches every game. He. He had friends who were racing to get to Center City, around where Broad street is and all that kind of stuff. And I'm like, dude, stay on the street. Do not go to Broad street right now. But he was gonna. Dude. You think he listens to me? 21 years old.
- [11:18]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Cause it wasn't that bad.
- [11:20]
Chad Millman
No. And he. I don't know if he went or not. We. You know, he's texting me this morning about something else and isn't answering any of the questions I have, so I'm sure he ended up having a fine night. But Philly fans, you know, having been in New Orleans for the super bowl in. I've gone to Super Bowls for so many years, right? And a lot of times you ask media members, and they've all got these pet theories on which team is going to win based on what's happening on the ground. And I have more than one media member friend who says they can. They will put their money on the team that has more fans in town over the course of the week. And this was a blowout for Eagles fans in New Orleans. On my flights down, it was all Philly fans. When I was on the ground, it was all Philly fans. E, A, G, L, E S. Chants were breaking out everywhere. All you did was see green. You did not see any Kansas City Chiefs fans. And then before the game started, my kid, my younger son, had about 10 of his buddies over. And, you know, these are very engaged kids when it comes to sports. And we were watching the game and we were all commenting on how much the stadium sounded like it was an Eagles home game. And that Was the moment, Simon, where I was like, oh, fuck, we're gonna lose these bets. That's actually when I thought of it. I'm like, when that Eagles crowd went crazy, I'm like, shit, I think. I think we're in bad shape.
- [13:05]
Simon Hunter
I know. No, that honestly didn't matter because that, to me, it's. It made sense. The fact that there was more Eagles fans, in my opinion, just because we have a bigger fan base than Kansas City Chiefs. I know, they've been incredible.
- [13:20]
Chad Millman
This little run, of course it all makes sense. Like the Chiefs, twice in a row, who's going to spend. For the third time. The Eagles fans are. Are. The Eagles fans are, in a weird way, they're a great mix of sort of like, we've called their Philly scumbags, right? And we say that in the nicest possible way. Yeah, you're from Philly. I love, love Philly. Like, I think it's such a great city. I love the people there. We had the event there. It was so much fun. Like, I love Delco. I, you know, I wrote the book with Vince Papali. I just think I'm a huge, huge Philly as a city, team, personality, culture, citizenry, fan. Fucking love it. Couldn't agree more with you about, like, the ebullience, the enthusiasm, the love, the hate, the passion for Eagles fans. It's pretty hard to. To meet that.
- [14:20]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. And, you know, when I, When I. Again, the reason I didn't think it was a big deal there was Tony Ghost fans is because, you know, they bleed into being the villain, this Kansas City Chiefs team. So when they came out, it was tons of booze. I was like, this is only going to fuel them even more. They just ran into an absolute juggernaut. And, you know, we're going to get into it here, but obviously my home's worst game of his career. No doubt about it. So, like, that's the game we always joke about where, you know, we can run my little simulations. You can talk all you want about the matchup. End of the day, it's all out the window when the game starts. And, you know, if you run 10,000 simulations, that game happens, I don't know, 50 times tops. Like, Eagles blowout roll Mahomes throws. Pick six, has three turnovers. You know, just horrible. He was absolutely horrible. So, yeah, I would say I on our Chiefs bet, you know, didn't feel a ton of confidence on it. Felt like it was a right side because of the history we've been betting it, but I did Feel really confident on that under and that one definitely hurt where it's like, you know, stupid plays happened and basically once it's a blowout, none of your modeling, none of that stuff matters. It's going to be a totally random game from that point forward. And it's like if a couple little things break people's way, they're going to hit this over. And yeah, Mahomes staying in, playing the full game, you know, scoring 14 points in the final three minutes, absolute killer to that under. So yeah, just was not our day brother on the betting side.
- [15:52]
Chad Millman
So look, we had described this super bowl kind of it was all upside because of our future positions, right? You had a lot of futures exposure on the Chiefs over the Eagles in the super bowl, but you also had a ton of opportunity with the Eagles and a bunch of futures. You would bet on them throughout the year, both matchup and just to win the super bowl when you could get good numbers. I think you told me you got them at 20 to 1 a couple times, you know, in the middle of the season when they were 2 and 2. I felt the same way because I had the Eagles Chiefs matchup paying out a 28 to 1 before the game. So a lot of my bets this weekend were about maximizing upside while protecting my downside. And as you've alluded to, given our positions on the Chiefs, given the under, I turned out I needed a lot more downside protection because our Chiefs positions just did not come through for us. We had Chiefs minus one and a half, Chiefs moneyline. Primarily the under was our big balls. But because it was the Chiefs and because it was the Eagles defense that was really doing the damage. I kept thinking like in the second half, I would say when it was 17, nothing, I was still thinking, all right, Chiefs go down, they score a touchdown, get ball in the second half, 17, 14. But that A.J. brown touchdown that you mentioned, that seemed out of character as being too easy to me. That was, that was a tough one to swallow.
- [17:41]
Simon Hunter
A little bit. But again, it's just Mahomes had a meltdown, brother. It's like he, he throws that pick six and then throws that one out there and it's like you're, you're about to give up 14. Your defense did really well. Like we. Yeah, that's what I mean, absolutely downed Saquon and you know, I love that Herz was able to take advantage of the one on one matchups because it, we knew coming to the game, it's like we obviously thought Mahomes was Going to step up. But it was like Hertz had to have to step up in these big moments and make big time throws. And um, they kept taking advantage of the one on one matchups, right. Because they were so hyper focused on stopping the run. But at the same time it's like, you know, he's throwing against all pro corners. Like it's not like it's a layup. And the safeties, how great the tackling by the safeties of the Chiefs too. It's like can't understand it enough where they kept coming up. Anytime Saquon was about to break one, they met him in the moment and stopped them. And yeah, like we were saying, it's. It's 10 nothing. Mahomes has the ball. The Eagles were kind of letting them stay in it and it's like, okay, if you could put a drive here, they can get back into this game. And like we just said that that pick six then I know the turnover right afterwards, that does not happen with Mahomes. It was so out of character. And just the how he drafting that D line, it's incredible how dominant they were in that game. We talked about leading up to it that we knew the Eagles had a big advantage of it. Especially you're giving them two weeks to break down tape on that Chiefs offensive line. They're going to know their weaknesses and where to attack it. But even that it was. You couldn't believe how hard they played the whole game. Like even the second half they're still getting sacked, still getting pressure, still have somehow had fresh legs. And it's like we, we knew coming in it was the same thing. We talked about Brady and Mahomes. Now he's lost two Super Bowls the same way. If you get pressure with four, that's, that's the only way to beat him. That's the only kryptonite. And you know, I, I've watched pieces of it. Obviously I was in the stable mind. But going back watching some of the All 22, if they weren't getting that front four pressure, this game would have been way closer. Like he had open guys streaking down the field. He had a lot of options in this game, Mahomes, but he just was never right. Even early on when they weren't getting tons of pressure like that first two, three and outs, he was missing easy passes to Kelsey and Kelsey's dropping the ball a couple times and it's like everything we joke, everything just went wrong though for this Chiefs team. So yeah, the, the Eagles better as we Talk coming into it too, like all the pros I know that were Ben, the Eagles after the game. Yeah, they were super confident like that. But I was with them in the books. Everyone before the game is like, have I made a huge fucking mistake going against Mahomes? And it's like, you know, that's, that's the issue we had coming into this. It's just we've been burned so many times in this exact scenario where the Mahomes did beat the better team. This is how you have to beat him. You have to literally cut the guy's head off. You have to be up by 24 and don't take the foot off the gas like that. You know, that deep ball by Mahomes, I mean, by Hertz. Devonte Smith was my favorite play of the whole game because that was like their fuck you, you ain't getting back in this. We are not slowing down at all. And that was really soul crushing to the Chiefs. It was at that point, 34, nothing, game over, no doubt about it. So, yeah, just Kellen Moore, incredible play calling by him as well in this game.
- [20:59]
Chad Millman
So it's interesting. This was such a no clear edge game, right? I don't know if you've seen a Super bowl like this, but it's rare where it really is about opinion and everybody knows everything that the model says. Everybody knows everything about where the advantages are and the disadvantages are. And if you were betting one side or the other, it. It's not because you saw anything different than anybody else. You didn't have the secret formula. Your model wasn't so much better. It was just you either believe in Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid or you believe in the overall talent of the Eagles. Have you ever seen anything like that? I don't think I've seen something like that where there's no real number edge and it's all opinion a little bit.
- [21:50]
Simon Hunter
I mean, honestly, the most shocking part was how simple it was to break it down at its core. Like Mr. Joe Public's coming the sportsbook saying the same thing as professionals are saying, which is Eagles have the better team. But I like the quarterback and Andy Reid and it's like, you know, everyone basically had the same view of it. It's just. Yeah, the most shocking part was that there was no one coming in betting just big money, right? There was no pro groups I knew that were taking huge stands on the Eagles and vice versa. It's like I knew some really smart, respected money who put huge money on the under and Obviously that got smoked, but it was like, you know, this number never ran from Eagles minus or Eagles plus one and a half all the way to Eagles minus two or Eagles minus one and a half. Like that never happened just because, you know, pros were scary to put up such huge money against Mahomes in the spot, but obviously not all of them. Like I said, there's a lot of really smart guys who did come the other side, but it was always, it was always them betting it because what we talked about it was like, okay, their model makes it. Eagles are the favorite. They trust their model. That's how they got here. And they bet it. And yeah, we trusted the trends and the Mahomes factor of if he keeps this game close, he'll steal it in the end. And you know, two Super Bowls now that he's lost, he's been absolutely blown out in both. And you know, looking in the future or people looking back on this, it won't tell the whole picture, right? 40 to 22. This was really a 40 to 6 type of game. Like this was total domination. So yeah, I would say two happiest fan bases right now are the, the Eagles and the Patriots fans. Holy have. They've been loud about Mahomes being humbled and Chiefs fans being humbled and yeah, they get to hold on to Brady still being the goat. No doubt about it. Brady ain't getting blown out like that. I mean he's never been blown out in any super bowl like that. Any of his losses. He always was basically in a one possession game. So tough, tough day for Mahomes and his goat talk. Obviously still one of the greatest. But you know, as someone that goes through the history of football, it's still Brady, it's still Joe Montana, right? Joe Montana 4 0. I know. It's a different era. Fucking A. It's 40 years ago, that Super Bowl. But come on, like, you have to give some respect to the past and it's. When you look at that stuff, how impressive that is. Joe Montana go four zero. It's insane. So yeah, we, again he's 29 Mahomes, he'll have plenty of opportunities, but man, was that, that was pretty humbling to them and that fan base because they were, they printed the three Peach Church Chad, they were feeling themselves. So yeah, pretty, pretty wild that, that, that game just got absolutely blown out.
- [24:34]
Chad Millman
Well, look, Mahomes has been to five Super Bowls in seven years and he's not even 30 years old. I feel like there's going to be plenty of Opportunities for him to get back there. I do think that the two times he's been blown out, like you said, it's been about pressure up the middle. And this offensive line, the entire season has been the Achilles hill for this team. It's where all the penalties are, it's where all the bad play is, especially on the edges. They know what they have to do. They can be really confident about Xavier Worthy. They might need to figure out a little bit of help in the running game. They got to figure out Travis Kelce. I think they can be really confident in their defense. But I was just surprised that over the two weeks Andy Reid did not figure out where he was going to get extra support and protection for Patrick Mahomes and then they couldn't make that adjustment in the second half. Like what was your take on that? Did you see anything? Like I, I'm just astonished that they couldn't. We were betting on Andy Reid doing the right thing and finding a way to protect his quarterback and he never did it.
- [25:42]
Simon Hunter
But there was no adjustment to be made for them, unfortunately. And that was probably the toughest part of that game is that to me they did have some couple things planned and scripted. Like I said, when people go back and watch, there are open guys and there are timing routes where if the Eagles weren't so dominant on the front four, Mahomes would have had a pretty solid game. Eventually got a rhythm but he never got into a rhythm at all. Like that was the most damning part of that first half was they never let him get into a rhythm and they just kept bringing the pressure, kept bringing the pressure of the front four and you know there were no adjustments to be made because they don't have, they didn't have the pieces. Like if you're the Bills and the Ravens or even the Bengals, wherever Miles Garrett or whatever, you just need to attack the edge rusher like the, the. There is. There's a path to beating this chief's team and taking down how great they are. And we've seen it now it all starts on that front four. Like you have to find guys that are difference makers and you know Eagles been very lucky in the draft how he's done a great job that basically all those guys were draft picks. Like there's no. Had no free agent guys on that starting unit. So you know, obviously you need a draft well but there's other ways to go about it. But you know Andy Reid, his. His plan was quick passes and try to establish the run game could never establish the run game and on their quick passes, Mahomes never could stand in the pocket. Like you just said, the middle was always collapsing. So he was either always having to step up, which they were planning on. Like they never had the edgers rushes too far up field again. It was just total domination by Vick. And you know, we talk all the time about how important coaching is. You saw it on both sides of the ball and that Eagles, like Eagles, OC and DC Were both out coaching the other team's offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator. So yeah, that, that, that to me was an advantage we thought we had with the Chiefs and it wasn't any way like you just said. And the unfortunate part for them is they didn't have the guys to make the adjustments. Like there is no guy that you can move around the offensive line to help fix your problem. Like it's. They've made the moves, it's done. What's done is done with the Chief. So yeah, they're in a weird spot where because they aren't drafting great, it's going to be hard to improve that offensive line. Like they don't have the money to go out there and get another guy. They've spent the money, right? They have an all pro center and all pro guard who had had to kick out to tackle. Like it's just, it's just too much. So yeah, for this Chiefs team, you know, like Chad just said, we expect them to be back. But you also could say to yourself they have a lot of things that are about to change going forward. Right? They're most likely going to lose Kelsey to retirement. Like it's, it's going to be different here going forward for this team. So yeah, pretty interesting to see that they are the favorite right now at a lot of books for next year's super bowl where, you know, these other teams that they've been beating up on, they're all improving as well, like the Bills and the Ravens. So yeah, I'm, I'm looking ahead right now. But just looking at this right now, people want to say, well, the Eagles just gave out the blueprint. That's like saying Tampa gave out the blueprint on how to beat Mahomes. Right? It's. That's just lazy, stupid talk. So the adjustments will be made by this Chiefs team. We know how impressive and great they are. It's just what are they going to do if they don't have the money to attack that offensive line? To me, that's, that's the biggest weakness on this team. Right now is that offensive line.
- [29:02]
Chad Millman
I want to get on the other side of our next ad, read and talk a little bit about futures. I got a couple other things that I want to review because once our Chiefs bet was dead, we still had a lot of bets in play and like it made the game really exciting and happy for about, you know, if you were not a die hard Eagles fans that we can talk about for a second. Simon as America's beloved longtime Long island poet laureate Billy Joel once sang, he here we are in the ninth, two men out, three men on, nowhere to look but inside where we all respond to pressure. And at the risk of mixing sports metaphors, last night's super bowl was a masterclass in building and responding to pressure in all definitions. General sports culture applied pressure to the Chiefs to three peat the Eagles pressured Patrick Mahomes. Tom Brady's inane commentary put tremendous pressure on the patience of a weary nation. But no matter what kind of pressure listeners at home may be feeling, there's one surefire way to reduce it. The breathable, flexible comfort of Tommy John. Experience Tommy John's comfortable and luxurious essentials for both men and women and release the pressure valve on your own life. The softest shirts, the highest quality underwear. Everything you need to live better and move unburdened into the NFL off season. And with a special sale for our listeners, scrambling safely away from pressure just got even easier. Simon, why will you be wearing Tommy John in 2025?
- [30:37]
Simon Hunter
Because comfort is king right now.
- [30:39]
Chad Millman
You can shop tommyjohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at tommyjohn.com favorites that's tommyjohn.com favorites all right, so in the second half of the game, I moved from the living room where my son and his boys, you know, 10 of them were watching the game. And I gotta say, it was a blast watching with them in the first half. They all had very serious opinions on the Kendrick Lamar halftime show. They freaked when Serena was shown. They were maybe a bit too interested in what the first song was going to be and whether or not it was an unreleased song. I'll leave that to everybody's imagination about why they might have been interested in the second half when it was all clear. My chief's bets were dead. I still had so many props alive and it I don't know about you, Simon. It felt like every play in the second half was make or break and I still had a lot of optimism and a lot of enthusiasm. I don't know about you it was.
- [31:42]
Simon Hunter
Fun, but I'm definitely like the people I was with like absolutely hating on me because I had basically all under props on Saquon and just being super negative. Every time he got stuffed, I was like, yes. And the no touchdown prop was just a great bet. And I remember, you know, I don't know how many people it was, but you basically, you've probably heard it as well. It was like 99% of the bets were on his touchdown.
- [32:07]
Chad Millman
Oh yeah.
- [32:08]
Simon Hunter
And you know, when you hear that stuff, it's like, okay, gotta be Scrooge or gotta go the other way. Gotta, gotta take no touchdown. And it is crazy. It was plus 150. But yeah, I would say the happiest one for me was definitely devonte Smith getting that touchdown. Basically hit his over prop, hit his anytime touchdown and you know, shout out to our guy, Chris Raybon. He gave out devonte Smith, it might have been him. And Sean gave out Worthy touchdown like that, that parlay. So that was a really nice hit as well. So, yeah, it's why we bet Props, right? It's even if your bed's dead on the game, you still have a ton of fun. But for someone like me personally, yeah, as soon as I lost that under, I was going to be a losing day no matter what. Like, I was really heavy on the under, so I wish I could bet more on props. It's just a limited market. The books are smart that way. But when it comes to totals and sides, they'll take all my money I want to give to them. So, yeah, unfortunately ate away at some of it, but yeah, got got crushed on that game going over, it was tough.
- [33:14]
Chad Millman
The two props I was sort of going back and forth on. One was devonte Smith, which cashed and was great. You gave it away on convince Me. You gave him over 50 plus yards and he was, he was having a great game. You also gave away devonte Smith to lead the game in receiving yardage, which I bet. But I also bet Sean Kroner gave out on Convince me yesterday, a 40 to 1 triple play that through the first half wasn't awful. It was Hertz to lead the game in passing yardage, Barkley to lead in rushing yardage, Xavier Worthy to lead in receiving yardage. And also there was the Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown that Nick Giffen was talking about all week. That cash, that was great. But about midway through the third quarter when Xavier Worthy finally started to sort of get into gear, that 40 to 1 prop, the triple play was totally in play. And the logic that Kerner had was Barkley Will, even if he's not getting a lot of yardage, will have so much volume. He's got the highest ceiling to lead the game in rushing. And he. It was there, that cat that, that prop was right there until about midway through the third when. No, midway through the fourth, Jalen Hurts scrambles for 17 yards, bypasses Barkley. And you knew after that there was like one or two series left. He was getting bottled and then he was off the field and then that. That prop was dead. But for a second it felt like that prop was going to clean up all my mess during the day.
- [35:13]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Nice hit by anyone. That bet Hurts to lead the game of rushing. I believe it was 6 to 1, 7 to 1. A lot of books. So that was a nice bet. People that hit it.
- [35:22]
Chad Millman
Yeah. Good for. I mean there were a lot of bets like over the course of the week that people were hitting you right. About that. People talked about that were a little bit long shots. Nick Giffen on bet what happens live gave out a Devonte Smith plus 9:50 to score a touchdown in the second half. Some fun, some really fun long shot bets that were cashing that under was a little bit of a kick in the dick.
- [35:50]
Simon Hunter
Yeah. Yeah. And again I'd love to be pissed Andy Reid for keeping my homes out there, but like it's super bowl stats. So it's like why would he not go out there and not keep trying to sling the ball? Like this is he should try to pat his stats. Like because it basically his. I mean people are going to bring it up like he was at probably at one point was at negative 45 points in all five his games total. Like because every game, every time he's won, he's won by what like three points of six points. And now his two losses were both absolute blowouts. So I got why Mahomes was trying to get that numbers back up. He just. He's competitor, right. He's in his mind. He's never really dead. So yeah, that, that was just brutal. It's like, you know, it was always going to go over, right. We've seen this time and time again when, when there's an outrun like that, a huge blowout type of game unless the other team just totally gives up. It's. It's going to go over and Mahomes is never going to totally give up. So yeah, it's crazy this game, you know, and where once I was up 34 nothing, the fact that this did reach 62 points is pretty insane.
- [36:57]
Chad Millman
There was a point, you know, I had bet Mahomes under 36 and a half pass attempts and then I had also Bet him under 255 and a half passing nice yards. No it's not the. The under on the pass attempts is great. He had 202 passing yards going into that last drive. When he got the ball at the 51st play there was a 50 yard touchdown. I forgot who caught it. But he ends up it was worthy. He ends up with 257. Oh, it's brutal passing yards. Last play of the game I had, I had like the two bets that like I still had a shot to cash that were not props. Like you know, parlay long shot. Props were passing attempts and under Mahomes passing yardage got the passing attempts. Got it canceled right out by that 50 yard bomb to Xavier Worthy motherfucker. That was brutal.
- [38:04]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, some brutal beats. Definitely. A lot of people had Carson Wentz to take a snap in the game. Oh yeah, that was a bad beat because he. They just never put him in even in junk time. And you know someone like me got crazy lucky. I basically the game on the show as a non QB have a pass attempt. But a lot of people like me also bet anyone other than the starting two quarterbacks have a pass attempt in the game. God bless you. Kenny Pickett came in through just a nothing ball but got us that cover.
- [38:33]
Chad Millman
So fourth and six again.
- [38:34]
Simon Hunter
It's just all fourth and six.
- [38:35]
Chad Millman
Kenny P. Yeah. You know, what's your feeling on Nick Sirianni right now?
- [38:41]
Simon Hunter
I mean obviously like gotta like the guy, gotta respect them, you know. He, he does, he did do a lot of dumb was why I hated him. And him not being able to figure out the blitz last year really just took me to another level of just fucking hating the man. I just. He made, he made Hertz look so bad where it's like if he had proper coaching like he did this year, he shouldn't have struggled so much against the blitz like you saw in that game. They never stopped blitzing him. And he made one bad mistake on that pick. Other than that he was great against the blitz. So you know, now that we sit here right now, like you can't say a bad word about Sirianni. Like I think he's second all time in wins in his first four seasons, two Super Bowls. And even in his presser last night he said what I think he should say, which is coaching is a lot easier when you have some of the best players in the world. And that's, that's been my point from the get go, is that how he has put together this absolute juggernaut of the team, he just needed the right maestro to run it. And you know, everything I've read and heard these last, especially these last four or five weeks about Sirianni always being there for these guys, you know, him and Big Dom, like there's a reason these guys aren't getting arrested, they're not getting in trouble off off the field. Him and big time going to these guys homes at night and dealing with a lot of their off field and you know, the fact that he ran that video every week of Peanut Tillman punching the ball out on guys and then in the playoffs they had a bunch of big time punch outs and it's like that's the intangible stuff that we don't know because we just see that he is not doing much game on the field like game planning and you know, run the offense or the defense. He's just a guy out there. But the more you look into it it's like no, this is the motivator of men. So yeah, give him his flowers right now I don't put him in the same level as I do as Peterson or, or Andy Reid but you know, he's not far off. Like we have another one or two winning seasons and make it back to another super bowl, it's probably going to be tough to deny. He's probably going to be the best quarterback in Eagles history. Just like you know, right now hurts. He's 26. He's probably going to end up being the best quarterback in Eagles history if he keeps going on this trajectory. Like even if we only get six or seven more years out of those legs, it's, it's a really big opening right now. Like Darius Slate talked about last night, like that's a really young, hungry defense that you know we're going to lose a lot of guys here in free agency that are really important to this team but the core is going to be there. So I think we know the offense is together, right? Barkley is going to be back no matter what next year. Smith, the offensive line, I think the only guy we lose is. Might be the guard, might be Beckman. You know, we got him for the jets just off a one year contract. So it's, it's the type of team that me and you joke all the time. You fade the team like this, this Eagles team like you fade them. A young team wins the super bowl. Usually fade them the Next year. So that's gonna be interesting diving into that just because everything points to this team regressing super hard like schedule, all of the players are going to lose. The coaches, we expect them to lose. Like once again Hertz is going to have another new offensive coordinator. So you know, I'm going to enjoy right now as an Eagles fan, but as a better, I'm seeing a lot of opportunities already.
- [42:01]
Chad Millman
Let's talk about that for just a couple minutes because I'm looking at the futures right now. Kansas City plus 650. Eagles plus 650. We had Brandon Anderson on last week. We got who talked about liking the Niners and he wrote about it on action today at 17 to 1. Bills plus 700. Ravens plus 700. Lions plus 900. So have you made any bets yet? I've made one futures bet so far. Have you made any futures bets?
- [42:37]
Simon Hunter
Yeah, I would say pretty interesting. Eagles actually just moved to the favorite now. So they just moved the Plus 650 at a couple of books. So people, people are hammering this one day after, right? They're going to cash their tickets and yeah, I can see a couple of people feeling loyal to this Eagle scene already betting them. But to me that's. There's no good value there right now. Shockingly, one of my favorite bets is the Green Bay Packers. You can get them 25 to 1. This is basically a team that I wanted to fade, fade, fade coming into this, this season because of the hype now people are off the scent and when I look back I'm like, okay, they had a ton of injuries and Jordan Love was banged up head into that playoff game if he can get healthy. And they do go out there and get a T. Higgins or somebody to attack their number one receiver. This is a high potent offense with a very young defense. You know, we've talked over the years. They've always drafted the defense. They've never figured it out defensively, whatever that may be. They just have never drafted. Right. Maybe never got the right coaching. That's gonna be the major question here. But the fact that they are, you know, 25, 24 to 1 right now, that they are below the commanders, they're below Cincy right now. Yeah, there's a lot of good opportunity there in that in a division where coming to the year once again, everyone's gonna be talking about Detroit, everyone's gonna be talking about the Bears. There should be some excitement, right, for this Vikings team if it's JJ or depends what they do at the quarterback Position. Right. KOC just wants coach of the year. You know, I just think Green Bay is the team that's being left for dead right now. So that's, that's the first bet I made. I bet them at 25 to 1. I'm seeing a lot of books now have them at 24 to 1. So still still good value to me on that Green Bay team.
- [44:20]
Chad Millman
I did bet the Niners 17 to 1. I liked Brandon's logic on the Niners not having done any sort of real thinking about this yet, but Purdy being healthy, I you coming back, McCaffrey coming back, Robert Saleh taking over a defense that even when they weren't getting good coaching, they all were at high levels in terms of dvoa, they still performed really well as an offense with running backs nobody had heard of. And again, I'm parroting some of Brandon's logic here, but Shanahan has been to five the past seven NFC championship games. So I took a flyer on Shannon. He tends to do it like there's a down year and then he comes back. Right. So I like the Packers a lot too. I'll probably play the packers just so I can get some kind of, you know, hedge as it gets later in the year and load up on some NFC teams. But I like your idea too. Niners and packers, that's what we're gonna make our first futures bets.
- [45:25]
Simon Hunter
Like obviously like we like Chad just said this is super, super early. So like say like a team. I kind of like like the Rams. Right. Rams were a play away from beating this upsetting this Eagles team. There's too much unknown with Stafford. That's my hesitation here is like I want to take them, but my fear is that they do move on for Stafforder. He does have bad blood with them because all this off field stuff with Cooper cup and him not liking it. But he is, I, I think his contract, he should be there next year. But that, that is a guy that could move so like there. It's intriguing that the 33 to 1. I just wouldn't bet it right now because of all the unknown. So I know I've had a couple people ask how I felt about the Rams and I think Chad just nailed it too with his 49ers take where it's like the Rams, they got away with one winning this division this year because it was a down year with the 49ers. We don't expect the same next year. Like they start 1 and 4 next year. It'd be really tough to come back and win the division like they did this year.
- [46:21]
Chad Millman
Alrighty. Great year. Thanks to everybody for sticking with us. So much fun to play these games and to talk through them with Simon and to get the feedback from everybody and both positive and negative because we know feedback is a gift. So if you're in Chicago, mark your calendar for Saturday, March 29th. Simon and I will be there doing a Favorites eventually. Probably have some special guests talking college basketball too. Well, more details to follow. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5, sign up using promo code favorites deposit10. Place the bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary at bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page on Tuesday. Next Tuesday, 1:30pm Eastern. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate reviews, subscribe, leave us, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1800- gambler check engine light on. Take the guesswork out of your Check engine light with O'Reilly Variscan. It's free. Ask for O'Reilly Variscan today.
- [48:13]
Simon Hunter
Auto parts.