The Favorites - Super Bowl Trends with Evan Abrams

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode: The Favorites - Super Bowl Trends with Evan Abrams
Release Date: January 30, 2025
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume
Description: The Herd with Colin Cowherd offers a thought-provoking and opinionated exploration of the top sports stories. In this episode, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter delve into Super Bowl trends, leveraging insights from Evan Abrams, their director of research.

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1. Introduction to the Episode

[02:14] Chad Millman:
Chad introduces the episode's focus on Super Bowl trends, highlighting the significance of data-driven analysis in understanding betting strategies and team performances.

Quote:
"Today is a big episode. It's our Super Bowl trends episode with our favorite director of research and favorites mainstay, the man who signs jerseys at our live events, Evan Abrams."
— Chad Millman

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2. Betting Strategies and Historical Trends

Discussion:
Chad and Simon discuss the historical success of betting strategies that focus on teams with Super Bowl odds of 12 to 1 or shorter. They analyze the effectiveness of round-robin betting approaches versus flat betting on favorites.

Key Points:

• Round-Robin Strategy:
  Over the past decade, betting on all combinations of teams with Super Bowl odds of 12 to 1 or shorter resulted in 4 wins out of 67 combinations, yielding a modest profit of approximately 21 units.

• Flat Betting Strategy:
  Betting individually on 56 teams with odds of 12 to 1 or shorter over the same period resulted in 9 wins, leading to an 18-unit profit.

Quote:
"If you're feeling bold and every August for the last 10 years, you bet every single combination of teams at 12 to 1 or shorter to win, basically parlayed all the conference title odds combos. In that span, it's won four times in 67 total combinations."
— Simon Hunter
Timestamp: [05:12]

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3. Patrick Mahomes: Performance Analysis

Discussion:
A significant portion of the episode examines Patrick Mahomes' performance trends, particularly in high-stakes games such as the Super Bowl. The hosts and Evan discuss Mahomes' exceptional statistics and how they influence betting decisions.

Key Points:

• Mahomes' Super Bowl Performance:
  Mahomes has an impressive playoff record of 17-3, with an 85% win rate in his playoff starts, second only to Bart Starr since 1950.

• Efficiency Against Strong Defenses:
  Mahomes maintains an 84% success rate as an underdog or narrow favorite in away and neutral games, showcasing his ability to perform under pressure.

• Impact of Coaching and Game Planning:
  The synergy between Mahomes and coach Andy Reid is emphasized, highlighting their ability to adapt and strategize effectively against formidable opponents.

Quotes:
"These stats don't sound real when you talk about Mahomes... If you have the ball in his hand and they need to score to win, that's just absurd."
— Nate Thompson
Timestamp: [14:44]

"Mahomes has played 26 games away from home as either an underdog or a favorite of three points or less, and he's 21-4-1 against the spread in those games. That's ridiculous."
— Simon Hunter
Timestamp: [12:04]

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4. Market Efficiency and Betting Trends

Discussion:
The hosts explore the efficiency of the Super Bowl betting market, particularly focusing on how favorited teams perform against the spread and in total scoring.

Key Points:

• Favorites Against the Spread:
  Out of 58 Super Bowls, favorites have gone 27-29-2 against the spread, indicating a near-even split and highlighting the market's efficiency.

• Total Points Prediction:
  The over has an 28-28-1 record in Super Bowl history, further underscoring the unpredictable nature of the game's scoring outcome.

Quote:
"Almost dead even in the Super Bowl. It's actually some of the most ridiculous things ever."
— Simon Hunter
Timestamp: [47:54]

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5. Coaching Rematch Implications

Discussion:
A coaching rematch between Andy Reid of the Chiefs and Nick Sirianni of the Eagles is analyzed for its potential impact on the game's outcome.

Key Points:

• Historical Coaching Outcomes:
  In previous Super Bowl coaching rematches, the coach who won the first encounter also won the second, suggesting a pattern that may influence bettors' perspectives.

• Team Evolution:
  The current matchup features a different Eagles team with a stronger offensive line and the addition of Saquon Barkley, contrasting with their previous appearance.

Quote:
"It's amazing to think they lost three Super Bowls and two of them were to a Giants team that were what, a wild card team."
— Chad Millman
Timestamp: [51:11]

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6. Defensive Strategies Against Mahomes

Discussion:
Evan Abrams provides an in-depth analysis of how the Eagles' defensive coordinator, Vic Fangio, has historically performed against Mahomes, revealing potential vulnerabilities and strengths.

Key Points:

• Vic Fangio's Track Record:
  Fangio has faced Mahomes eight times, with Mahomes going 6-2 against the spread in those matchups. His defensive schemes have sometimes limited Mahomes' passing yards and efficiency.

• Adaptability and Game Planning:
  Despite Fangio's strategies, Mahomes' adaptability and the offensive prowess of Andy Reid and his team often overcome defensive plans.

Quote:
"Mahomes has played 34 games on extended rest since 2019. He's won 30 of those 34 games straight up."
— Simon Hunter
Timestamp: [16:02]

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7. Implications for Betting on the Upcoming Super Bowl

Discussion:
Based on the analyzed trends and statistics, Chad and Simon contemplate their betting strategies for the upcoming Super Bowl, considering the Chiefs' and Eagles' performance metrics.

Key Points:

• Chiefs' Betting Edge:
  Despite the Chiefs having a bye week, their consistent rhythm and Mahomes' standout performance create a strong case for betting on them.

• Eagles' Potential Vulnerabilities:
  The Eagles' domination in the conference championship may not sustain, and their next game could present opportunities for bettors to find value in the Chiefs.

Quote:
"Once he gets going, I don't think they punted the rest of the game. Once he got going against the 49ers defense, so that, that to me, if this makes sense... that's what makes it so much more interesting."
— Nate Thompson
Timestamp: [14:44]

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8. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Discussion:
The episode wraps up with reflections on the unpredictability of the Super Bowl, the efficiency of the betting market, and the standout performances that defy traditional statistics.

Key Points:

• Unpredictability and Data:
  Despite historical trends, each Super Bowl presents unique variables that can lead to unexpected outcomes, making data analysis both valuable and challenging.

• Influence of Star Players:
  Players like Patrick Mahomes continue to redefine game dynamics, emphasizing the importance of individual performances in determining the game's result.

Quote:
"It's a great defense. There's no rationalizing that it'll be giving everyone fits, but it's what makes it so much more interesting."
— Simon Hunter
Timestamp: [37:39]

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Chad Millman [02:14]:
  "Today is a big episode. It's our Super Bowl trends episode with our favorite director of research and favorites mainstay, the man who signs jerseys at our live events, Evan Abrams."

• Simon Hunter [05:12]:
  "If you're feeling bold and every August for the last 10 years, you bet every single combination of teams at 12 to 1 or shorter to win, basically parlayed all the conference title odds combos. In that span, it's won four times in 67 total combinations."

• Nate Thompson [12:04]:
  "Mahomes has played 26 games away from home as either an underdog or a favorite of three points or less, and he's 21-4-1 against the spread in those games. That's ridiculous."

• Simon Hunter [47:54]:
  "Almost dead even in the Super Bowl. It's actually some of the most ridiculous things ever."

---

Conclusion

The Herd with Colin Cowherd's episode on Super Bowl trends offers a comprehensive analysis of historical betting strategies, quarterback performance, and coaching impacts. By leveraging Evan Abrams' research, Chad Millman and Simon Hunter provide listeners with valuable insights to navigate the complexities of Super Bowl betting, underscoring the balance between statistical trends and the unpredictable nature of the game.

Transcript

[Bobby Bones]

Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to Say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Justin Penik]

What's up, everyone? It's Justin Penik from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week. On Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays, breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast and you will be glad you did.

[Adnan Virk]

What's up, everybody? Adnan Burke here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.

[Jason Demers]

Jason Demers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.

[Adnan Virk]

Hey, I got a lot to say here, too.

[Nate Thompson]

Okay?

[Adnan Virk]

Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.

[Jason Demers]

Tons of guests are going to join in, too, but we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking TV, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on Le Table.

[Adnan Virk]

Listen to NHL Unscripted with Vir and Demers in the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

What's up, everyone? Julie Swerbinks here along with former NHL player Nate Thompson.

[Nate Thompson]

We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

Energy Line with Nate and jsb.

[Nate Thompson]

Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey life. All topics are fair game, right?

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

And you'll never know who will drop by to join us.

[Nate Thompson]

Yeah, Julie is pretty, pretty well connected. She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

Listen to Energy Line with Nate and jsb starting on February 4th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm in our Action Network studio, but it is a Tommy John studio. I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.

[Nate Thompson]

And I am in my Tommy John studio. Thank you, Tommy John, my brother.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, good to see you.

[Nate Thompson]

Another day closer, brother.

[Chad Millman]

One day closer. Today is a big episode. It's our super bowl trends episode with our favorite director of research and favorites mainstay, the man who signs jerseys at our live events, Evan Abrams. We'll bring him on in a second. Next Tuesday, we've got Chris Raybon and Sean Kerner on to discuss their favorite props. And then Thursday, we will of course nail down and discuss our best bets with Brandon Anderson, who crushed it all season long on the Sunday episode of the Action Network podcast with Evan. His hot reads were always two bets that I religiously made. We're going to give out our foxhole, our Tommy John big balls. Simon's biggest bets. We'll play scoot roulette. All that jazz.

[Justin Penik]

The road to the super bowl is long and pointless.

[Adnan Virk]

I mean, when you think about it, football's so great.

[Justin Penik]

But now the two conference champs must.

[Chad Millman]

Survive a harrowing bye week that no one enjoys. Bye weeks. Bronco Nagursky didn't get no buy weeks.

[Nate Thompson]

And now he's dead.

[Chad Millman]

Well, maybe they were good things. For now, we got to focus on the trends. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5, sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never Ordinary. At BET365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms, conditions, restrictions apply. All right, we're going to skip sharp calls this week as well. We did a little bit of it on Tuesday. We'll dig in more when we're closer to the game a week from today. First, let's bring in Evan Abrams, director of research. He's got all the trends, all the data, everything that we rely on so much during the season. Evan is going to lay it out for us in one big palette. Let's go, brother. Give me your first best trend.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, first of all, Chad. Hi, how are you? This one, this one panders directly to you, though. So we started off with, by the.

[Chad Millman]

Way, there's only one person who likes pandering more than me. I'm not going to make it a political show, but we all know who that is.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, yeah, we're here to kind of tease you a little bit because this is the one you're gonna. You've been really looking for. So only betting the best teams is something you kind of talk about all the time. This year you're talking about it with the Chiefs and the Eagles, which is a ticket had in the preseason, them meeting in the Super Bowl. But, but this is an interesting thing and I think it says a little bit more about the current state of the NFL. Let's call it the last decade. So Chad talked a lot about taking the strategy of all 12 to 1 teams or shorter in terms of super bowl favorites and taking a round robin approach. So I, so I spoke with Matt and basically we dope and we dived into this. So I just want to start there and say if you're feeling bold and every August for the last 10 years, you bet every single combination of teams at 12 to 1 or shorter to win, basically parlayed all the conference title odds combos. In that span, it's won four times in 67 total combinations. Now that would be this year's Chiefs and Eagles, Chiefs, Niners, Chiefs, Bucks, and Pat's rams. That's the four times it's hit. Now, of the 67 total combos, we've had four winners, so we've had 63 losers at one unit per bet. The four winners paid about 84 units, minus 63 losers. You'd be up about 21 units doing this round robin strategy last decade. Now what if you weren't feeling so bold? What about just straight flat betting every 12 to one team or shorter? So over the last decade, that's 56 total teams. So 56 bets. It's won nine times, including this year, and it's lost 47 times. So with Casey or Philly pending, the eight winners paid out 65 units, minus the 47 losing bets. If you did this blind, you'd be up about 18 units holding the Philly and KC tickets. Now, for what it's worth as well. And this is just obviously more about the current state of the NFL 2014, which is one year back of this sample size, New England plus 651 at all. 2013 Seattle 8 to 1 won it all. Now 2012 is where we get a string of long shots, starting with Baltimore, who wanted 18:1. But basically since that 2013 year, we have consistently seen the Brady's, the Mahomes, and just the favorites every single year. Chad, so your strategy so far, so good.

[Chad Millman]

Well, really, Evan, I can only claim that it's your strategy because I basically just did what you told me to do because I believe the stat is. And now it's 11 of the past 12 seasons. The teams who had odds of 12 to 1 or less were in the Super Bowl. They were the matchup.

[Simon Hunter]

No. So it's the super bowl champion. A bunch of those years you had the other team in the mix. So only four times last decade have both teams actually fit your track end where both were 12 to 1 or shorter in the super bowl odds. And we basically had to parlay their conference odds. Does that make sense? Because you're basically taking every team that's 12 to 1 or shorter to win the Super Bowl.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah.

[Simon Hunter]

And then you're taking their conference odds, parlaying them together and basically getting a ticket where yours was like 28 to 1. Right?

[Chad Millman]

Yes.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. So this one, I believe was like 27 to 1 using these odds. But basically you'd be around those units. But truthfully, I mean, I'm curious what Simon thinks. Like, because everyone loves these long shots and basically it hasn't hit up one year in the past 12 or 13 years in the NFL. And this is a one game sample when you're not even dealing with a series. It's a. It's honestly a little bit crazy. Yeah.

[Nate Thompson]

In my view, I think Evan will agree with this is I take long shots. The hedge and I've missed the two best ones in the last four or five years. I missed on the Bengals 150 to one and I obviously missed on the commanders this year at 151. That's. That's a position. Right? That's where you want to go. You want to take those type of bets. You know, this a great one this upcoming year. People are gonna fucking hate us, Chad, for saying it. Guess who's 101 right now? Or 151, I should say Panthers. So you think they can make the next step? They get the right guys. That's the type of team you gotta do. You gotta. You gotta do it on a team that no one believes in. The Joe Burrow one, that was a flukish one. Right. He's coming off a knee injury after his rookie year. The Commander's one. Obviously no one saw it coming, right? I didn't see too many people flashing their 151 tickets. They had. I know that one guy had. Was it circa. I forget what book it was. It was basically bet 2k to win 500k on the commanders. Didn't come through. I'm sure that pro hedged it out, but. Yeah, what.

[Simon Hunter]

What.

[Nate Thompson]

What Evan's telling you right now is the league has gotten not, we want to say stale, but it kind of has. Right? It's the top dogs. And even coming this year, Chad was going through his list, and I was like, I wouldn't put Houston on that one. Right? I remember saying the Chad. I was like, don't. Don't do Houston. Stay away from that one. I just don't think they have the pie. And I think I also gave him bad advice too. I said I wouldn't do the Lions coming to this year. I thought there was too much bad juju after they blew that lead with golf the year before. The 49ers got very lucky. That one worked out because for a minute there, midway through the season, I was like, I just cost Chad a ton of money. The Lions are a juggernaut. So I'm with you on that. Evan, I. I would love to hear what you have on Patrick Mahomes. I actually gave out a trend I thought was a good one that I was wrong on. My man Evan helped me out. I thought Mahomes was 500 on Dome games. He is 141 in Dome games. So still big difference.

[Simon Hunter]

Huge difference.

[Chad Millman]

Big difference.

[Nate Thompson]

I know. We gotta. We gotta. We gotta be truthful, though, correct ourselves. 1401 Mahomes in Dome games in his career. Pretty insane.

[Simon Hunter]

Absolutely insane. And yeah, let me. These are the stats. To me, when you talk about Mahomes in the super bowl, they. I was talking about this before we even went live here. They feel all made up. Like this legit. Feels like you put that stat out there where someone's like 25 and 2 and everyone, you know, thinks you're making it up. It's just ridiculous. So let me just kind of go through some of these. In January, February, Mahomes has played 18 games at home or on a neutral field. He's 16 and two straight up. His losses against Burrow and Brady, if you throw in November and December, he's 44 and 6 straight up. Just the playoffs. Mahomes has been an underdog or a favorite under a field goal eight times. He's eight. No straight up. And ets in those games. Now when you talk about on the field success and basically these games where maybe it's gone back and forth a little bit. Mahomes has trailed in the fourth quarter or overtime, nine total playoff games. He's won six forced overtime in two of those games. Mahomes has played 20 games in the playoffs. He's 17 and three straight up. 85% minimum 10 games in the playoff starts. That win percentage is second best since 1950 behind just Bart Starr, who is nine and one. Just 10 playoff games.

[Chad Millman]

And I, and I'll remind, as I did on Tuesday, because I think Simon gave this out on Tuesday. Bart Starr is the only quarterback to go three straight because remember he had an NFL championship and then they won those first two Super Bowls. So that's, that's the company he's keeping on that one.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, just trophies, TRO trophy, trophy names at this point. It's ridiculous. He's. He's winning Hallis because, you know, he's meeting Alice. It's stupid. Let's look at his entire career away from home. Mahomes has started 26 games away from home as either an underdog or a favorite of three points or less. 214 and one against a spread 84% in those games. I'll say that one again because that's actually ridiculous. Entire career away from home, 26 games away from home as an underdog or a favorite of 3 or less. 21, 4 and 1. 84%. And then.

[Chad Millman]

Christ, Simon, we are just so setting ourselves up to be crushingly humiliated. Like, you know, it's like we are not the people who lean into stats like these. When it is the higher profile quarterback and the favorite. It's just not who we are. We are the people who can't go three weeks without mentioning the Carolina Panthers. Even when the Panthers haven't played in a month. Like the fact that we have invested the way we have on Patrick Mahomes is just teeing us up to be on the wrong side. I just got to, I have to, I have to say that out loud. Do you feel I am now mushing us? Are you with me? When you hear these things? Like when I hear these things, it makes me uncomfortable. Doesn't make me feel better about my position.

[Nate Thompson]

No, I only worry about you mush in regular season playoff. I don't think you can mush it. There's too much going on in the playoffs for Chad's mush. But no, we talked about, like Evan said on the top of the show, these stats don't sound real when you talk about my homes. Because we've never seen it before. And it's what we keep talking about. The models don't get it. Right. Computer models can't get it because it's. It doesn't sound real what he does. And it's the same thing with Brady. Like, you're getting a once in a lifetime generational talent that just breaks all the rules, all the trends and yeah, just hearing these numbers, even like, I mean, even though he told us these don't sound real, but they're real, they still don't sound real. Right. The fact that he is just reading off all these stats where it's 24, 21 and 4. 8. No, 16 and 2. It's like, holy shit, man, this kid is just so incredible. 29 years old too. Only 29.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, that one away from home is. As an underdog is absurd.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, he's a. He's the grim reaper. And everyone kind of talks about it in these situations, but when you're winning like that, neutral and away and you know, even his losses, and it's weird, you look at him, some of them are at home. They're just eggs. Sometimes during the regular season when he goes away from home, he becomes a killer.

[Adnan Virk]

Great teams aren't always great. They're just great when they have to be.

[Simon Hunter]

And that's why those records seem so crazy. I told this to Simon and okay, so he's five and oh, neutral field, which we get. I mean, the Super Bowls. Plus he's played there in other situations. But the thing that's crazy about it is 2018, and this is the stat that kind of blows me away. So since 2018, enter in the fourth quarter, overtime, down one possession, one to eight points. Chiefs have had 12 drives. They've scored on 11 of them. 11 of 12 drives, down one score. They've scored 11 times out of 12 drives. 2018 in the playoffs. All other teams are like five of 11, three of nine, two of nine. I mean, just he's doing things even when trailing. That's just absolutely ridiculous. So that's my Mahomes.

[Chad Millman]

But that's why you. That's why you bet with him, is because, like, you have to. Because of that exact scenario. We say it all the time, announcers say it. It's become cliche, but it's true. At the end of the game, do you want to be on Patrick Mahomes or against Patrick Mahomes? If he has the ball in his hand and they need to score to win. That's it. That's how you're, that's how you're betting this game. You know what I mean? It's just, it is absurd. I can't say it enough.

[Simon Hunter]

And that was definitely part of the analysis against Buffalo. I mean, to be fair, a lot else happened in that game, but in the end, I mean, he was, he was stone cold. And the other one we can talk about with Mahomes, but also has to do with Andy Reid is basically rest. I mean, we know how good Andy Reid is, but the combo together is actually pretty crazy. And it's another stat which just feels made up. But during the season, Mahomes has played 34 games on extended rest since 2019. So that's basically eight days or more. So it's not like a Sunday to Sunday. It would be more than that. He's won 30 of those 34 games straight up. So 30 and four losses to Brady, Matt Ryan, Jaylen Herz, and Aiden OConnell again, one Jaylen Herz, which is funny, but 30 and four, just absolutely stupid stuff.

[Chad Millman]

Our bet365 Super bowl prop contest is still accepting submissions. If you want to see your custom bet on bet300, email your top super bowl prop ideas to Podcasts. There's an S at the end of that. Podcastsctionnetwork.com you must adhere to state Gaming Commission rules, which basically means every part of the bet has to be settled on the field of play, on the field in the box score. The winning submissions often have a clever name like the Brocktopus or the Millennium Falcon. That's from the Matt Ryan super bowl winner gets an Action Network prize, a chance to come onto the show. Talk to me and Simon about it. The pick will go live on the bet365 website. Submissions are open until Thursday. Podcasts actionnetwork.com that is today.

[Nate Thompson]

That's your final warning.

[Simon Hunter]

Get them in here.

[Chad Millman]

Submissions must be in today.

[Bobby Bones]

Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville? We're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. I texted you and you texted me back. Now I don't know if you have the update, but like all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like it's all colored. They changed it and the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest, it was a little pink.

[Nate Thompson]

There was something sentimental when you, when you send it.

It was like, do I send the heart now?

[Bobby Bones]

I don't like the color edition.

[Nate Thompson]

It's extremely pink.

[Bobby Bones]

Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast or wherever you get.

[A.J. Stephens]

Your podcast Podcasts Ever wonder what it's like to be on the phone with an NFL general manager as you finalize the biggest contract in NFL history? I'm A.J. stephens, Vice President of Client strategy at Athletes first, where we've negotiated $1.4 billion in current NFL quarterback contracts. Introducing the Athletes First Family podcast, the Quarterback Series, along with my co host Brian Murphy, Athletes first CEO, we're pulling back the curtain on how these historic deals come together. You'll hear directly from the agents who shaped the NFL's financial landscape, the ones who negotiated Justin Herbert's extension and Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed contract that sent shockwaves through the league. This isn't just about the numbers, though. It's about the untold stories behind these massive negotiations and the relationships the NFL superstars like Dak Prescott, Tua Tungavaloa and Jordan Love have with their agents at Athletes First. For the first time ever, the agents who orchestrate these deals are sharing the details of the negotiations and everything that led up to their clients signing on the dotted line. Listen to the Athletes First Family podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Justin Penik]

What's going on, everybody? This is Justin Pennik from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast alongside Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We're rolling three times a week, on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're talking about the MVP race. Is Josh Allen going to pull it out? Lamar Jackson? Can Saquon Barkley even break the rushing record? Can the Steelers keep up their momentum? We talk about everything, we break it down. Stats, analytics, and of course, Chris Rose is bringing his perspective on being a pro in the media world as well. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did. Hope you could join us for the postseason run.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

It's Julie Stewart Banks. I'm doing a new podcast from iHeart Podcasts and the National Hockey League, and I'm paired up with one of my favorite players, the always quotable Nate Thompson.

[Nate Thompson]

I wore nine NHL sweaters and I have story after story to share. And believe it or not, I have plenty to say, and not just about hockey.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

Believe me, he does. Energy Line with Nate and JSP is the name of the podcast, and it's going to be quite the ride. We're officially linemates, Nate. We're the energy Line.

[Nate Thompson]

We'll have plenty of folks join us, current players, some of my former teammates, hall of Famers, and wait to see some of the connections that Julie has. She has quite the Rolodex.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

Okay, we'll lean into Nate's playing experience and tap into our interests away from hockey and try to do what energy lines are supposed to do. Provide an emotional boost. How do you feel about all that, Nate?

[Nate Thompson]

I'm vibing, Julie. I'm ready to roll.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

Listen to Energy Line with Nate and JSB starting on February 4th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

All right, Evan, by the way, you have one job. Make me and Simon feel better. So don't make me feel bad.

[Simon Hunter]

Well, okay, so some of this information, I'm just a man who delivers. All right, I. I don't full, but I think some of the numbers on some of these are interesting. So let's, let's give you one trend and let's see your thoughts on it, because I think you and I, especially in all the shows that you and I have done together, sample size is something that's important of a lot of these. So last Sunday, the Eagles rolled Washington and the Chiefs had a close win against Buffalo. So the question is there anything we can glean from that? So The Eagles scored 55 points in the conference championship, the most in that round in NFL history. Only two other teams have scored more than 45 points in a conference championship. Bills did it in 91, then lost the Super Bowl. Panthers did it in 2016, then also lost the Super Bowl. So 10 total teams have scored 40 plus points in a conference championship game. They are three and seven in the Super Bowl. So another one and I'll add on top of it, and then I'll get your thought, which is Eagles beat the Commanders by 32 points. Teams won by double digits in a conference championship round facing a team who did not three and six straight up. And against the spread Super bowl since 2000, failing to cover by 9.5 points per game, which would tell you they're probably a bigger favorite in that spot, Which I could look back and look. But if you're winning by double digits and then you're a underdog in the game, that probably doesn't happen often. But to me, it does probably speak on a little bit of competition. So I'll get your thoughts on that and then we can kind of move on. But both. Both of those trends kind of telling you that the conference championship is a little bit of a. Hold on, wait, before you act quick.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, Simon, you go ahead.

[Nate Thompson]

I say I agree with it. Like, just even not knowing those trends, just that thinking of it, it's like, how often do we see a team play their best game of the year and then totally have a letdown the following game? Right. It's just one game. You go from. Everything's going perfectly well. Everything's moving smoothly. You're getting turnovers, you're scoring tons of touchdowns, not kicking field goals. And then the next week, everything feels harder. Right? Like, it. You know, my buddy who I went to the book with, he was on Washington, he turns to me after that first drive that Washington and he said was exactly what Brady was saying. Everything felt like it was so much harder on that first drive than it was against Detroit. They did earn every yard than it was against Detroit. And that's how football can be, right? You have the right match with the right team, it can be easy. And once you get. Once it feels easy and you have confidence, it's the opposite for the other team. Right. They're losing the confidence and they see how hard it is to stop you. That's. That's. To me, what really stands out there was the Eagles are coming off their easiest game in my opinion I've ever seen them play. Right. I've never seen them dominate that game. Obviously, football hasn't easy. It's the most points ever scored in a conference championship game. So I think that's what Evan's kind of telling you people. It's like Eagles just had the best game of their life. You expect them to have a letdown game and then going to get some Mahomes team. They're just straight as an arrow. Same old mom's. Winning by three. Close game. One and one in the fourth quarter. That wasn't their best game. Right. That was just another Mahomes Andy Reid game. So that's what I'm definitely taking away from what Evan's telling us there.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah. I also take away from it during the regular season. It's almost like an auto fade on the team that wins by, you know, four plus touchdowns, you immediately want to look in the other direction. Now again to Evans, unless it's Detroit.

[Nate Thompson]

During the regular season.

[Chad Millman]

Right, exactly. And to Evan's point, normally that team the next week is a huge favorite. They're not an underdog. So there's a little bit of a difference here. But to me it actually speaks to that that there is an opportunity. This team is at the top of the market. I wonder if this game opens with the Chiefs as even bigger favorites. Maybe they are two point favorites if the Eagles don't crush the commanders the way they do. Especially because the Commanders were the public side in that game. So the people who were betting on the Commanders are going to see the Eagles as being even better than they might have believed they were. That, you know, you might even be getting half a point of value from a bookmaker point of view on the Chiefs right now.

[Nate Thompson]

Yeah. Speaking of the Eagles, do you have any trends about them after the bi week of.

[Simon Hunter]

Oh man. So this one's just strange and I think a little bit of momentum has something to do with this one. But let me let it out. So the Chiefs had a bye week entering the playoffs. The Eagles didn't playing in the wild card round. How much impact has the buy been even this late into the playoffs entering the super bowl and obviously been playing for two plus weeks already in the super bowl era. Teams that had a buy entering the playoffs, facing a team who did play in the wild card game or who did not have a buy 4 and 12 straight up 213 and 1 against the spread which would be very, very bad for the bye week Chiefs in that situation. I think the thing you can only really glean from this is that like taking that buy doesn't give you as much momentum because we talk about momentum entering a Super Bowl a lot. But to me this one just feels like some weird noise. I don't know what to make of it.

[Chad Millman]

Feels like weird noise. It feels like there shouldn't be a momentum factor because both teams are getting two weeks of rest and yeah, you know, I don't know it. It's not a huge sample set, but it's the only one. It's the only one that we have. I don't know that the next 26 times this happens it won't be flipped.

[Nate Thompson]

Yeah. But to make sense of it in my view of it is football is all about rhythm and timing. So the Chiefs here Have played what, two games with their starters now going to be for a month and a half?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, yeah.

[Nate Thompson]

So that, to me, that does add up to where, you know, that is a big deal that you have a week off, play two games and you have another week off. So that, that definitely is going to be a part of it. Right. The team's just not in rhythm, not in sync. But what Chad just mentioned here is, you know, Mahomes, they're always in rhythm. Right. It just. When you watch him play, even last year against the 49ers, he was in the rhythm for that whole first half. Once he got a rhythm in that game, it totally flipped the switch. Once he gets going, I don't think they punted the rest of the game. Right. Once he got going against the 49ers defense. So that, that to me, if that makes sense, when you break it down like that, that, yeah, these teams come out of rhythm. They're not, you know, not, not ready for that game speed, because they've just been practicing against themselves and not going full speed. But we talk all the time, Mahomes, if anyone's going to go against that trend, it's. He's definitely got it back in that spot.

[Chad Millman]

Yeah, that, that one feels. Sorry, that one feels, I don't know, I'm not buying it. And I'm not buying it because I, I, I don't want to buy it. Like, I don't, I don't, I want the confirmation bias. I'm buying it. It just doesn't feel like a thing yet. Doesn't feel like we know enough.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, the 4 and 12 throws me off the 213 and one could have been something to do with the point spread, but 4 and 12 kind of confirms it's not so little noisy for me.

[Chad Millman]

Don't know what to make of it, Simon. As you may Remember, back in 1993, the most indelible image of Super Bowl 27 was captured. Captured. Long after the game was out of reach. With five minutes to go and his Dallas Cowboys up five touchdown, Leon Lett picked up a fumble and began to run. But right before he scored, Buffalo receiver Don Beebe and his Never say die Western New York attitude chased him down 64 yards to knock the ball loose for a touchback. Some claim it was Leon's showboating near the end zone that cost him his chance for glory. But true ballers know, true ballers like Simon and I know the real reason he was bogged down by the scratchy, inferior underwear of the 1990s luckily, here in the distant future, our friends at Tommy John have ended this decades long crisis. Tommy John makes the most comfortable underwear, shirts and casual essentials for the men and women of the future, helping you extend your five touchdown lead over inferior lifestyles. Cruising into the end zone of comfort with as much showboating flair as you desire. Simon, why will you be wearing more Tommy John in 2025?

[Nate Thompson]

Because comfort is king right now.

[Chad Millman]

You can shop TommyJohn.com favorites and get 25% off your first order. Save 25% at TommyJohn.com favorites that's TommyJohn.com favorites Let's just give Matt Mitchell huzzah. They're just they get better every week. They're little short story gems.

[Nate Thompson]

Never know where you're going with them.

[Chad Millman]

Never. Dude, this is the joy. I don't know where I'm going with them either. I am finding it out as I read it. Literally. I don't know what's going to happen next. This is the beauty of working with Matt Mitchell. He is a creative powerhouse. Speaking of powerhouse, Evan, tell me something about the defensive coordinator for the Eagles who's keeping Chiefs betters and the Chiefs up at night, Vic Fangio.

[Simon Hunter]

And you're right, Matt is a wordsmith so you got to give him that. But talking about Fangio for a second here, I think this is a just there's a bunch of different ways to look at this. So obviously defensive coordinator Eagles, but in this situation facing Mahomes, he's done that eight times in his career. So he did it six times with the Broncos. He did it twice with the Dolphins. Now Mahomes is 8 no in those games, straight up 6 and 2 against the spread Mahomes has 10 touchdowns, two picks, 64% completion percentage. Feels a little low if I'm just telling you those numbers in terms of the 10 touchdowns in just eight games. But I kind of looked a little bit deeper on this one because I think this story is going to be out there a lot. Two of his lowest 10 passing yard games in the regular season have come versus Fangio. Granted Denver's offense scored 15 points in those two games so didn't really put up too much of a fight Passing yards after catch which important in this game first and fourth lowest career for Mahomes in regular season against that Fangio defense in those eight games bad throw percentage. So that is percentage of off target throws per pass attempt. He's had 21 games at 23% or higher. Three versus Fangio of 20 negative EPA games in his career. Two have come versus Fangio defenses and also two of his top 10 worst EPA games versus Fangio defenses. Six of eight games versus Fangio. Mahomes had 20% pressure percentage which is a times pressured per drop back. So I think Mahomes is great. He wins a ton of games. I think the 8 and no makes sense. I think the 6 and 2 makes sense. He's putting up some points but overall I think last time they met against Miami he gave him a bunch of COVID zero which screwed with him a little bit. I think he's going to give him different blitzes. I think Mahomes wins lots of games. I think the data is actually a bit of a. Yeah, you'll see the eight. No, but I think there's a tiny bit of worry there. But that's what I, I've looked at going through it. That's what I take from it.

[Nate Thompson]

Thank you. I needed to hear that because I was diving into that. When I saw those numbers you had, I was like, oh my God, this is this a bad magic? Because when I, on paper what you just said makes sense to me where it's like this should be the perfect defense for my homes. You're only rushing four and you're giving them exotic looks which that's, that's the only way to beat this guy, right? If you don't have a Max Crosby on your team, you know you need to have a really strong front four because we've seen that even the Raiders when they beat them, that's why they, they beat him, right? That front four gets pressure. So that's what the Eagles need to do here. And you know that, that really backs up what I felt coming into us and you know, let's, let's, let's think about this for a second. If this is the only way to beat them, I need those numbers to come true. What you just said, Evan, I need moms.

[Simon Hunter]

You do.

[Nate Thompson]

To have a bad game. You basically need the offensive Eagles to show up. If they can basically put up what we just talked about over 15, 16, 17 points, you know, if they get in the 20 point range, 25 points, there is a chance they could beat this team because Mahomes, I, I, like I said coming into this, I thought this would be an under game because I just can' Mahomes putting up 30 points in back to back weeks like I thought last week. You know, we, we've talked coming into this, we thought the Bills had a weak defense, right? They've had injuries. We know they had 70 million dead cap so they weren't spending on defense. They just had a lot of weaknesses on that defense. So it makes sense. Demo homes put up 32, his highest scoring game the whole year. You're giving me some confidence. I mean I needed to hear that from Vic because I was, I was worried when I saw that trend that he was 80 against Fang's defenses.

[Chad Millman]

So what's interesting to me here is I'd love to know how often these games were played on extra rest or off of a buy because I do think we've seen through your stats and through the years, no one is better at game planning with extra time than Andy Reid. Right?

[Nate Thompson]

We said it was divisional, he said it was Denver. So you can count that as a by chat just because that means they prep in the off season for that defense. Which I agree with you, it's like you could throw that into it. But that to me is pretty interesting that he was like they had extended time to prep against it and Fangs defense was still pretty damn good for being on not that great of a Denver defense.

[Chad Millman]

See, well now I was starting to rationalize why I could feel good and now I feel bad again.

[Nate Thompson]

Shit.

[Chad Millman]

Go ahead.

[Simon Hunter]

The one I did look up because I felt like the other part of this forgetting Fangio for a second I wanted to look at because the Eagles pass defense has been something we've been discussing all year and it's kind of everywhere. So. And this, this helps your Mahomes case on one angle, but Mahomes versus past defenses, 200 yards allowed or less pass defense. He's 23 and 3 in his career, 12 straight wins. His last loss was October 2022 against Buffalo in November or later he's 12 and oh, straight up career. So the great pass defense thing and yeah, he's 12 and oh, in every stat I'm going to give but the fact that the 200 yards yards or less on pass defense and the 12, 0 and 12 and 0 later in November tells me it's a mature pass defense. Right? Like this isn't a September past defense that's played three games. I mean this is a defense that's been a few games into the season and feels the stat more heavy to me. So absurd.

[Chad Millman]

But well, the other thing I was going to say and that tells me a lot about their pregame game planning which might lead to us liking Dr. Nick's past. Patrick Mahomes under 36 and a half pass attempts even more. But it also speaks to what we talked about on Tuesday, Simon, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and their ability to adjust in game, there's just nobody better at it. Right. They can see it and like do it series to series, almost play to play because they're so in tune and so good at figuring out what the other team is doing and how to master the opposition. It's. Look, it's, it's a great defense. There's. There's no rationalizing that it'll be giving everyone fits, but it's what makes it so much more interesting. Right?

[Nate Thompson]

Yeah, it makes me think too of Josh Allen. Like Evan had some amazing stats. When Josh Allen plays really good defenses, his game gets even better. He's even better. And same goes for my homes. It's just two absolute unicorns in the sport where you know, most normal guys are going to struggle against great defenses. But, but not, not these guys. And, and I would love if we could play around of remember these guys.

[Simon Hunter]

This is, I mean as a guy who was born in the late 80s, I like sitting down and just naming old players. It's what I do for a living.

[Nate Thompson]

It's my most.89 just on December 89th.

[Simon Hunter]

87. 87. I'm in the middle there, I'm in the middle there. But I'm basically, I was trying to do some research on Saquon Barkley and like how someone like that based off of his season could possibly do in a Super bowl or how many guys to his numbers have been to a Super Bowl. So Eagles are the 11th team to enter a Super bowl with a 1500 plus yard regular season rusher and actually the first since Sean Alexander in 2005 and Corey Dillon in 2004. So those teams with those 1500 yard rushers are actually 8 and 2 in the Super Bowl. The two losses are Sean Alexander in 05, Jamal Anderson, 1998, Sirianni. And the thing that I thought was interesting of those 10 teams is they're adding a rusher like Saquon Barkley, but they've also had experience in the Super Bowl. So what I looked at was Sirianni and Hertz have been there and they added Barkley. How many times of those 10 rushers before Barkley did they have a coaching quarterback with super bowl experience? So 2004, Corey Dillon, they had been there, it was Belichick and Brady. 2004, they won the Super Bowl. 1998, it was Shanahan and Elway, they had Terrell Davis, they won the year prior, they won the Super Bowl. 1988, it was Roger Craig. They had Walsh on Montana. They had both won twice prior to that. They also won the Super Bowl. So those teams that had been there with that rusher actually 3, 0 now they're 8 and 2 overall. So I'm not telling you something crazy, but I was trying to come up with some sort of comp for just we've been here before, we've gone through the prep. Plus we also have this guy who's having an outstanding season, tends to turn out pretty well in that spot. So that's the way I kind of looked at it and trying to calculate like how this team adding this player who's been there would do very, very small numbers. And we know that even the craziest thing is Saquon's prop, right? Which is like 112, 114 or so this week. The question is, is we haven't seen someone run for 120 yards in a Super bowl since Michael Pittman in 2003. So I mean either way getting to that number or higher is, you know, know it's Terrell Davis Territory in 98. So I guess we're gonna have to see how it does that.

[Chad Millman]

How long it's been since a guy ran for that many yards. Yeah, I remember, you know, as an old person, Evan, you might remember that Super Bowls used to be dominated by running backs. I know before your time in the early 80s, we're talking John Riggins, Marcus Allen, those were the freaking days. And now you're telling me it's 22 years since a running back ran for 120 yards. That is something.

[Nate Thompson]

It is. But it does make sense too though because you think most teams are gonna have a dominant great running back. Probably have a bad quarterback, right? Derek Henry, he's with Tannehill. I mean CJ2K, that Tennessee team, they had nothing. I mean that Tennessee team had nothing. Adrian Peterson, go back and look through his career, all those incredible running seasons, he just never a quarterback. So we don't want to blame the running backs here. Even Marshawn lynch, right? Those incredible years, they were still a pass happy offense, right? With Russ. So it, it does make sense. We dive into it. You're right. This is shows what kind of unicorn situation this is where you have the best offensive line, the best running back and then a quarterback that's above average. So I, I definitely makes sense. We dive into it. We joke that, you know, the running backs have had a rebirth these last couple years. Like they were dead, right? The 2000 and tens to 2020. The running back position just felt like it was nothing. Getting no money, no respect. Now it's definitely going the other way, right? That extra cap money, teams are using it on these legit running backs. And we saw it this year. Derek Henry, Saquon, major, major differences to the teams they joined.

[Chad Millman]

Poor Joe Shine and the New York Giants. Those clips of him hearing from and that one lowly scout assistant, whatever, in his office saying, are we sure no one's going to pay Saquon? And everyone being like, nah, no one's going to pay him. And then him having the painful conversation with Saquon that they're going to let him test the market. Like, oh my God, it's, it's, it's Chad.

[Simon Hunter]

Not even that his daughter told him or daughter or son told him to draft Jaden Daniels.

[Chad Millman]

Oh, that's right. That's right.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Nate Thompson]

He was like, you get to job once in your lifetime, why don't you go get the best player? It's like, holy shit, this kid is smarter than half of the organizations in all football.

[Chad Millman]

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[Bobby Bones]

Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? Based in Nashville, we're more than just your basic NFL show. We talk sports, but we talk pop culture. And music and a little bit of everything because we got lots to say. Hey, I. I texted you and you texted me back. Now, I don't know if you have the update, but like all the little thumbs up and heart and stuff, like it's all colored. They changed it and the heart's a little pink. It felt like I told you I loved you. I'm gonna be honest. It was a little pink.

[Nate Thompson]

There was something sentimental when you, like.

[Simon Hunter]

When you send it, it was like.

[Nate Thompson]

Do I send the heart now?

[Bobby Bones]

I don't like the color edition.

[Nate Thompson]

It's extremely pink.

[Bobby Bones]

Listen to lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Justin Penik]

What's going on, everybody? This is Justin Pennock from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast alongside Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We're rolling three times a week, on Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're talking about the MVP race. Is Josh Allen going to pull it out? Lamar Jackson? Can Saquon Barkley even break the rushing record? Can the Steelers keep up their momentum? We talk about everything. We break it down. Stats, analytics. And of course, Chris Rose is bringing his perspective on being a pro in the media world as well. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did. Hope you could join us for the postseason run.

[A.J. Stephens]

Ever wonder what it's like to be on the phone with an NFL general manager as you finalize the biggest contract in NFL history? I'm A.J. stephens, Vice President of client strategy at Athletes Verse, where we've negotiated $1.4 billion in current NFL quarterback contracts. Introducing the Athletes First Family podcast, the Quarterback Series, along with my co host Brian Murphy, Athletes first CEO, we're pulling back the curtain on how these historic deals come together. You'll hear directly from the agents who shaped the NFL's financial landscape, the ones who negotiated Justin Herbert's extension and Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed contract that sent shockwaves through the league. This isn't just about the numbers, though. It's about the untold stories behind these massive negotiations and the relationships the NFL superstars like Dak Prescott, Tua Tungavailoa and Jordan Love have with their agents at Athletes First. For the the first time ever, the agents who orchestrate these deals are sharing the details of the negotiations and everything that led up to their clients signing on the dotted line. Listen to the Athletes first family podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

It's Julie Stewart Banks. I'm doing a new podcast from iHeart Podcasts and the National Hockey League, and I'm paired up with one of my favorite players, the always quotable Nate Thompson.

[Nate Thompson]

I wore nine NHL sweaters and I have story after story to share. And believe it or not, I have plenty to say, and not just about hockey.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

Believe me, he does. Energy Line with Nate and JSB is the name of the podcast and it's gonna be quite the ride. We're officially linemates, Nate. We're the Energy Line.

[Nate Thompson]

We'll have plenty of folks join us. Current players, some of my former teammates, hall of Famers, and wait till you see some of the connections that Julie has. She has quite the Rolodex.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

Okay. We'll lean into Nate's playing experience and tap into our interests away from hockey and try to do what energy lines are supposed to do. Provide an emotional boost. How do you feel about all that, Nate?

[Nate Thompson]

I'm vibing, Julie. I'm ready to roll.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

Listen to EnergyLine with Nate and JSB starting on February 4th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Chad Millman]

All right, Evan. It's called the most efficient market of the year for a reason.

[Simon Hunter]

Explain Unbelievable sides and totals. Almost dead even in the Super Bowl. It's actually some of the most ridiculous things ever. 58 total Super Bowls to date. Favorites 27, 29 and 2 against the spread. There was no total in Super Bowl 1. I can make one up, but I'm not going to since then. Overs 28, 28 and 1. Absolutely dead even in super bowl history in the last 21 games, the over is 10 and 11. Can't get much more efficient than that. And the public opinion really is no help. Sides getting the majority of tickets. 11 and 10 straight up in ATS in the Super bowl since 2004. In the one Super Bowl, Mahomes was not the public side he won and covered versus the Eagles two years ago. But truthfully, it's just dead even. It's the craziest thing. Talk about the most efficient market ever.

[Chad Millman]

All right, last one. Before we get out of here, we do have a coaching rematch. What does that portend for the Eagles and the Chiefs?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. Fifth coaching rematch in super bowl history. All time head coach who won the first meeting straight up on the second meeting in all four instances. Obviously we just did this with Reed and Shanahan, but it's been done with Coughlin and Belichick, Jimmy Johnson and Marv Levy. Sorry. Matt Mitchell and Chuck Noel and Tom Landry. And the craziest thing is Chiefs Eagles march just the second time in NFL history same teams have met in the super bowl in a three year, twice in a three year stretch. Bills and Cowboys 92 to 93. So you know, quick rematch here I think is really fun because we just saw this, we had a few, you know, ingredients to the pie. We kind of go from there.

[Chad Millman]

How does that make you feel, Simon?

[Nate Thompson]

I mean, obviously not great, but this is to me the perfect blend of this Eagles team is totally different than they were the first time around. You go back and look, look, you know the Eagles leading rusher with Jalen hurts with 70 yards. They're giving the ball to Miles Sanders. Now we have a younger, healthier, better offensive line and we have Saquon Barkley. So it is interesting going back, I mean I painfully had to do it yesterday. I had to go back and watch that game, that Super Bowl. I did not watch the final two minutes. I already know what happens, but just re watching it. You know, obviously the defense is totally different now. Like it's really noticeable how different the style is compared to Gannon and this Fangs defense where it was basically just being very careful, very soft playing zone the entire game where this new Eagles team, super aggressive, have the cornerbacks to play, man. And yeah, obviously when you break it down the coaching mismatch, me and chatter gave our opinion. We think the Chiefs have a huge advantage in Andy Reid and spag. So yeah, it doesn't, doesn't shock me that fact that these coaches, you know, especially the Coughlin one, he had the Patriots number like he had the secret sauce, right. That the four rushers, smart with the ball and offense, very boring football. It worked like that style that Giants played. It was the perfect match for that that Patriots team. And I mean it is crazy to think they lost three Super Bowls and two of them were to a Giants team that were what, a wild card team, Ev. So yeah, yeah, it is, it is pretty insane. We haven't had nothing fluky like that and like Evan said since what, 2012. So once again it's been pretty boring one and two seeds every year. Pretty much.

[Chad Millman]

True story. I had drinks with Marv Levy and his wife. I don't think I ever told him that much of this at the super bowl. One year after he had retired when I was at Sports Illustrated, I fact checked. It was my first job at SI fact checked a story about Marv Levy. I think Rick Tellender, who was my hero, mentor, idol, wrote the story. Then I had to as a fact checker, you gotta call the subject and basically check every fact in the story. Sometimes really intimate details. And so I had that conversation with Marv Levy and we were both gonna be at the Super Bowl. Forget where it was, the Bills weren't in it, and me and him and his wife had a drink and it was lovely. Couldn't have been a nicer guy. Matt Mitchell, are you happy I told that story? Harvard master's degree holder Marv Levy, one of America's greatest treasures and who will.

[Simon Hunter]

Be 100 years old during the end of training camp this year.

[Chad Millman]

Marv, if you're listening, you're a national treasure.

[Nate Thompson]

I love you.

[Chad Millman]

Class act all the way.

[A.J. Stephens]

No place else you'd rather be than.

[Justin Penik]

Right here, right now, when it's too tough for them.

[Chad Millman]

As reminders of the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and now new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets. When you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. At bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa. Terms conditions, restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday, 1:30pm Eastern. To talk super bowl props. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods, wherever you get your pods. Rate Review, Subscribe. Leave us. Five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

[Simon Hunter]

Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly.

[Chad Millman]

If you or someone you care about.

[Simon Hunter]

Has a gambling problem, help is available 24.

[Chad Millman]

7@1-800- gambler.

[Bobby Bones]

Hey, it's Bobby Bones. Join me and former NFL quarterback Matt Castle every Wednesday for our new podcast, Live to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle. Between us, we have over 17,500 passing yards, multiple New York Times bestsellers, and one mirrorball trophy from Dancing with the Star. So where else are you going to find a show with that much athleticism and football insight? We talk sports, but we talk pop culture and music and A little bit of everything. Listen to Lots to say with Bobby Bones and Matt Castle on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Justin Penik]

What's up, everyone? It's Justin Pennik from John Boy Media, the host of the Football Today podcast with Bobby Skinner and Chris Rose. We roll three times a week. On Mondays, on Wednesdays, on Fridays. Breaking down everything you need to know about the NFL. We're gearing up for the NFL playoffs. I hope you can join us. Join in with us three times a week. Listen to Football Today on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts and you will be glad you did.

[Adnan Virk]

What's up, everybody? Adnan Verk here to tell you about a new podcast. It's NHL Unscripted with Virk and Demers.

[Jason Demers]

Jason Immers here. And after playing 700 NHL games, I got a lot of dirty laundry to air out.

[Adnan Virk]

I got a lot to say here, too.

[Nate Thompson]

Okay.

[Adnan Virk]

Each week we'll get together to chat about the sport that we love.

[Jason Demers]

Tons of guests are going to join in, too. But we're not just going to be talking hockey, folks. We're talking movies, we're talking tv, food, and Adnan's favorite wrestling. It's all on le table.

[Adnan Virk]

Listen to NHL Unscripted with Vir and Demers, the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

What's up, everyone? Julie Swearbinks here along with former NHL player Nate Thompson.

[Nate Thompson]

We're doing a new podcast together. Here we go.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

Energy Line with Nate and jsb.

[Nate Thompson]

Each week we'll get together and talk about hockey life. All topics are fair game, right?

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

And you'll never know who will drop by to join us.

[Nate Thompson]

Yeah, Julie is pretty well connected. She has text threads going that you wouldn't believe.

[Julie Stewart-Binks]

Listen to Energy Life with Nate and JSB starting on February 4th on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.