The Favorites - Todd McShay Talks NFL Draft

Summary

Podcast Title: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Episode: The Favorites - Todd McShay Talks NFL Draft
Release Date: April 17, 2025
Host/Author: iHeartPodcasts and The Volume

---

Detailed Summary of "The Favorites - Todd McShay Talks NFL Draft"

Introduction of Todd McShay

In the episode titled "The Favorites," hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter welcome renowned NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay as their special guest. Recognized as one of the most respected mock drafters in the industry, McShay brings extensive experience and insights into the intricacies of the upcoming NFL Draft.

NFL Draft Predictions and Strategies

Shador Sanders vs. Jackson Dart

A significant portion of the discussion centers around the potential top quarterbacks in the draft, particularly Shador Sanders and Jackson Dart. McShay reveals a shift in his initial predictions:

"I feel more confident that Shador Sanders is not going to go in the first nine picks... I like Cleveland and Shador as a marriage in terms of what the coach is used to and what the coaches had success with at the quarterback position."
— Todd McShay [07:52]

McShay addresses the likelihood of Sanders landing with the Cleveland Browns, emphasizing the compatibility between Sanders' playing style and the team's coaching philosophy.

Team Strategies: Browns, Giants, and Saints

The conversation delves into the strategic decisions teams like the Browns, Giants, and Saints might make during the draft. McShay discusses the Browns' potential to trade up within the 10 to 20 range to secure Sanders, while also considering the Saints' interest in Jackson Dart:

"I could see Shador going somewhere in that 10 to 20 range. The team moving up, starting to feel like it might be the Giants more so, but we'll see how that plays out."
— Todd McShay [08:35]

Quarterback Position Dynamics

Chad Millman seeks clarification on McShay's stance regarding quarterbacks in the top picks:

"Do you feel more or less confident about this prediction today?"
— Chad Millman [07:52]

McShay responds by emphasizing his revised outlook on Sanders' draft position, steering away from earlier considerations of quarterbacks like Cam boards going number one.

Analysis of Player Prospects

Travis Hunter’s Versatility

A focal point of the discussion is Travis Hunter, a versatile player capable of playing both wide receiver and cornerback. Simon Hunter raises concerns about Hunter's ability to handle the rigorous demands of the NFL:

"But he's a Big 12 player, wide receiver and cornerback, and now he's gonna be the number two pick. I would love to hear your view on the Browns. Why not just take Carter, play it safe."
— Simon Hunter [15:06]

McShay defends the Browns' potential decision to draft Hunter, highlighting his exceptional ball skills and versatility:

"He's got the best ball skills of receiver I can think of in the last like decade... He's going to catch everything in his area and then the after-catch stuff and the explosiveness."
— Todd McShay [16:25]

Comparison with Other Players

McShay compares Travis Hunter with other notable quarterbacks like Brandon Whedon and Brady Quinn, discussing the Browns' historical drafting patterns and the risks associated with selecting quarterbacks over premium position players.

Mason Taylor and Other Prospects

The conversation shifts to Mason Taylor and his potential impact as a defensive lineman:

"I like Mason Taylor there. It makes a lot of sense. It's a Howie guy, but you also got Malachi Starks and Nick Eamon worry safety is a position they could address."
— Todd McShay [27:13]

McShay evaluates Taylor's prospects, suggesting that the Browns might prioritize him based on team needs and draft depth.

Betting and Fantasy Implications

Betting Odds and Advice

McShay offers betting insights, particularly favoring Travis Hunter:

"If you're just looking like you feel really good about getting the money. I would take that. I would take Carter at... what's Carter like? Minus 300."
— Todd McShay [19:37]

He advises listeners on potential bets, emphasizing the favorable odds for Hunter and Carter.

Impact on Betting Markets

Simon Hunter highlights the influence of McShay's predictions on betting markets:

"It's so the only time anything in my entire life, including like day to day chores, that anyone listens to me. So we'll go with it."
— Todd McShay [30:36]

McShay acknowledges his role in shaping betting trends and markets through his expert analysis.

Private Workouts and Information Gathering

Strategies for Reliable Information

McShay explains his approach to gathering reliable information from private workouts:

"It's just as much about the brain and the timing of the operation as it is... He's got a strong arm, stronger than I thought on tape."
— Todd McShay [17:56]

He emphasizes the importance of understanding a player's cognitive abilities and operational timing beyond physical attributes observed in public workouts.

Challenges in Information Reliability

Addressing the complexities of sourcing accurate information, McShay discusses the potential for misinformation and the "dance" involved in interpreting hints from team officials without being misled.

"There's no way to know definitively because one trade, one team picks something that you don't expect and it throws everything off."
— Todd McShay [31:15]

Conclusions and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, McShay reflects on the unpredictable nature of the NFL Draft and the myriad factors influencing team decisions. He underscores the importance of flexibility and preparedness for unforeseen draft developments.

"It's one of those, like, if the line's ridiculous, maybe you put a dollar on it... there's enough concern that... it's going to cost you a lot of money."
— Todd McShay [21:23]

McShay concludes by expressing enthusiasm for the draft process and the ongoing analysis required to navigate its complexities successfully.

---

Notable Quotes:

• Todd McShay [07:52]: "If you don't have a grade that's equivalent to one of those picks you have to take, you have to take a... These are premium positions. Corner, wide receiver."

• Todd McShay [16:25]: "He's going to catch everything in his area and then the after-catch stuff and the explosiveness."

• Todd McShay [19:37]: "I would take Carter at... he's not going to get better than minus 200 for number three with the Giants."

• Todd McShay [27:13]: "I like Mason Taylor there. It makes a lot of sense."

• Todd McShay [31:15]: "There's no way to know definitively because one trade, one team picks something that you don't expect and it throws everything off."

---

This episode provides a comprehensive look into Todd McShay's perspectives on the NFL Draft, offering valuable insights for fans, bettors, and fantasy enthusiasts alike. His expert analysis sheds light on team strategies, player potentials, and the intricate dynamics that shape draft decisions.

Transcript

[Talkspace Ad]

You know, when you're really stressed or not feeling so great about your life or about yourself, talking to someone who understands can really help. But who is that person? How do you find them? Where do you even start? Talkspace. Talkspace makes it easy to get the support you need. With Talkspace you can go online, answer a few questions about your preferences and be matched with a therapist. And because you'll meet your therapist online, you don't have to take time off work or arrange childcare. You, you'll meet on your schedule wherever you feel most at ease. If you're depressed, stressed, struggling with a relationship, or if you want some counseling for you and your partner or just need a little extra one on one support, Talkspace is here for you. Plus, Talkspace works with most major insurers and most insured members have a zero dollar copay. No insurance, no problem. Now get $80 off of your first month with promo code space80 when you go to talkspace.com match with a licensed therapist today at talkspace.com save $80 with code [e-mail].

[Chad Millman]

Welcome to the favorites the podcast presented by bet365. We are part of the volume podcast network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Today I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Hello, Chad. I think I have a fun fact for you today that you're gonna love. A couple episodes ago you called me out for my Irish goodbye at our party. And if people have ever wondered, what do they call it in England? Because they pro. They don't call an Irish goodbye. Obviously in England they call it a backdoor boogie.

[Chad Millman]

Really?

[Simon Hunter]

I just love the idea of someone turning to their mates and yeah, about the back door boogie. And then just leave. No such thing as an Irish goodbye.

[Chad Millman]

Did you get that from your mommy?

[Simon Hunter]

No, just some British listeners, a die hard fan of ours, my cousin.

[Chad Millman]

No way.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, yeah. So I thought that was really clever.

[Chad Millman]

Here's what I loved about that event, by the way. So we were there and I think I told this story. Did I tell the story about the kid I met from Indiana who had played soccer there, but he grew up in Liverpool and I told him that you were from northern England as well. And when I told him where you were from, he looked at me as like, man, that is hardcore. Yeah, it's rough old school England right there.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. I told you anytime I do go, especially because I'm a big guy, like I'm tall and overweight, which is very American. I stick out like you wouldn't believe it. Like everyone could just tell I'm American immediately when I'm walking around town there. So, yeah, always fun going back home.

[Chad Millman]

Here's a fun fact if we're going to go into fun facts. So, you know, I'm working on this book and so a lot of my days right now are spent doing so much research. Like if you could see outside the camera frame. My desk is piled, piled with books about gambling history, including David Schwartz Roll the bones that we had on earlier in the and as well as newspaper articles, old photos. I told you I met with the grandson of the guy who invented the point spread, another very famous old school bookie who was a bookmaker with the mob in the 1930s and 40s. His son sent me piles of newspapers, of clippings and piles of old photos. And like this morning I was looking at a photo of this dude with three world famous jockeys from the 1930s and 40s at a club in Havana, Cuba. Like real old school stuff, right? But one of the facts I read the other day. Do you know why it's called handicapping? Do you know why everything we do is called handicapping?

[Simon Hunter]

I always figured it was if you were wrong, they take your knee. No, the handicap. Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

No, it's not, it's not. It's. In the 1870s, the guy who ran like the Jockey Club of England, who was a royal admiral who probably had a name of sir something or other. Everyone loved horse racing in England, as you know, as we all know. And they were trying to find ways to make the races more even because there would be horses who were really fast and horses that were really slow and they didn't have odds yet. And so they were trying to figure out how to make it better for betters. So they would add weights to the fast horses to give them a handicap. And that is how it's called handicapping.

[Simon Hunter]

That's insane.

[Chad Millman]

Isn't that great?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. So that's funny. That and then that and then golf took it. That's interesting.

[Chad Millman]

Yes, exactly. Right?

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah.

[Chad Millman]

Betting has, has added to the vernacular of sports in so many freaking ways. That I am, I've always known, but I'm like unpacking in so many other facets as I go through this research. It's, it's super fun. I can't wait to come to South Jersey and sit with you for the day and tell you everything and tell you everything I've learned so far.

[Simon Hunter]

Looking forward to it, brother.

[Chad Millman]

About this history. You know what else I'm looking forward to? We got a big, big guest coming on. This guy is so super famous in the world of draft. Draft coverage revolutionized the game. It can only be one of two people. Okay, I think you know who I'm talking about. I think the guests or the listeners know who I'm talking about. We're gonna bring them on in a second. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet$5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites deposit $10 place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment, it's Never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Illinois, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-BITS OFF in Iowa terms. Conditions, restrictions apply. All right, as promised, we are welcoming one of the most prominent media figures when it comes to the NFL draft universe. You can argue that there's only two people that matter in this universe, and he is one of them. One of the longest running and most respected mock drafters anywhere. You can catch his NFL Draft livestream on the McShay show on Spotify and YouTube. You can subscribe to his very excellent draft newsletter, the McShay Report. Welcome to the show, Todd McShay.

[Todd McShay]

That was a hell of an intro. I appreciate it, Chad.

[Chad Millman]

We like to shine on this show. You know why? We only get, like, supreme superior premium guests. So we go big.

[Todd McShay]

I appreciate it. So thanks for having me. Thanks for putting me in that short list. What's going on?

[Chad Millman]

Congrats on all the success. Congrats on the launch of the show. Congrats on the newsletter.

[Todd McShay]

Thank you.

[Chad Millman]

I know you thought a lot about it. I know you worked hard on it. I'm super psyched for you. I'm glad it's working out. I don't want to waste your time. You got like a week before the draft. Every second is precious. You put out a new mock draft. Very bold move predicting a trade involving the Browns. You mocked the Browns selecting Travis Hunter at number two and trading up with Atlanta to take Shador Sanders. Do you feel more or less confident about this prediction today? Do you feel confident about getting Sanders landing position correct being the pivot point? Of this year's mock process, I would.

[Todd McShay]

Say I feel ads or more confident that, that Shador Sanders is not going to go in the first nine picks, which is saying a lot because I think a lot of people including myself early on thought that the Giants, that was a possibility at three. Right. I got off of that pretty quickly. And then I think everyone still to this day is saying, well, the Saints make a lot of sense. He doesn't have the big arm. He could play in a dome that division. Good weather. Kellen Moore, I look at it this way and, and I've, I've got sources as well, but my initial reaction to that was Kellen. Quarterback coaches and offensive coordinators and, and offensive minded coaches, they, they get used to and they, they kind of structure what they want to do around what they've worked with and what's been successful. He's been successful as an offensive coordinator in three different places, right? It's been with Dak Prescott in Dallas, it's been with Justin Herbert in Los Angeles and it's been with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. That's not Shador, man. That's just, you know, Shador would fit with Cleveland. And the reason why I had Cleveland trading up and we'll get to that in a second. Like Kevin Stefanski is one with that kind of guy. He went, won like 10, 11 games with, with guys who didn't have big time arms, including most recently Kirk Cousins. You know, not the biggest, not the strongest arm, not the most mobile, but what, so what makes them successful? It's fast processing, very accurate throwing the ball around the field. So I, I like Cleveland and Shador as a marriage in terms of what the coach is used to and what the coaches had success with at the quarterback position. But as we get closer to the draft, I think Jackson Dart is the Saints, the guy the Saints want. And it's because of those things I just mentioned. Jackson Dart is a sturdy, mobile, stronger arm quarterback. Right. I don't think a quarterback's going to go in the top nine. Now the Derek Carr situation with the shoulder, curious timing that may speed up the process for the Saints. But Mickey Loomis, the GM there, has a track record of targeting a player he wants and giving up whatever he has to get give up to go get him. So I envision a scenario in which we're looking at this and now all of a sudden Shador Sanders and Jackson Dart are still available at 10 and now the clock is ticking and I think everyone in the league is well aware of Mike Tomlin and his affection for Shador Sanders and would like to get him at 21, but they don't have a second round pick. And I don't know they're willing to give up more draft capital to go up and get Shador and we'll find out what happens with Aaron Rodgers. So I think everyone in the league that has interest in those two quarterbacks is looking and saying are 21, we've got to get up ahead of that. But we, we can wait it out and we don't want to move in the top 10 and give away next year's first round pick. So if it's the Giants or the Browns, I think, I think somewhere in that 10 to 20 range would be the area they would move up. And I went with Atlanta because Atlanta has the second fewest picks in the entire draft with five. But we'll see how it all plays out. I could see Shador going somewhere in that 10 to 20 range. The team moving up, starting to feel like it might be the Giants more so, but we'll see how that plays out. And then I could see Jackson darter team trading up with Minnesota. Minnesota only has four picks in the entire draft and trying to get up ahead of like Cleveland or the Giants, Whoever's sitting there, 33, 34. And I think New Orleans could be that team to do it.

[Chad Millman]

So I have two quick follow ups. I know Simon wants to jump in with a very important quarterback question number one, I just want to clarify. Either I misheard you or you just said you don't think any quarterbacks will go in the top nine.

[Todd McShay]

No, no, no, no, no. I misspoke. If I said that Cam boards going number one, you can, you can write that down. Got it, Sharpie. Yes. So I meant the other. Any of the other quarterbacks. Yep.

[Chad Millman]

Number two, if you're the Browns and you've got the second pick. We had this conversation, Simon and I, the other day with one of our guests. Why wouldn't you go for Shador Sanders there? If what you need the most is a quarterback and Travis Hunter, you could be reaching for a cornerback at number two or reaching for a guy who is a dynamic athlete but maybe not a brilliant receiver yet. At number two, Travis Hunter's brilliant. Okay.

[Todd McShay]

At wide receiver and at cornerback, you can't pass on that. I actually, I looked this up this morning. I'm pulling up my phone a lot. I've heard a lot of people say with the Giants and the Browns, you know, the, the possibility of like the cake and Eat it, too. Scenario, kind of like Nick Casario did recently, where he took CJ at 2 and moved up to get Will Anderson. Different circumstances, in my opinion. I think this scenario could play out more like we've seen in the past. Lamar Jackson would be like the glass half full scenario where the Browns took their tight end early in the first round, thought the night was over. All of a sudden, Lamar sitting there, they get an opportunity, they trade into 32 and they take Lamar Jackson there. But I want to remind people, and this is what I looked up. This is why I'm looking down at my phone here.

[Chad Millman]

Okay, good research.

[Todd McShay]

Johnny Manziel. Browns took him at 22, at 22 overall in 2014 after they took Justin Gilbert at eight. Brandon Whedon. The Browns are three of the four examples here. Brandon Wenan, also at 22 in 2012 after they took Trent Richardson at number three. Brady Quinn, also at number 22 for the Browns back in 2007 after they took Joe Thomas at three. The Ravens, Kyle Bowler at 19 in 2003 after they took Terrell Suggs. So I say all that. If you don't have a grade that's equivalent to one of those picks you have to take, you have to take a. These are premium positions. Corner, wide receiver. He could solve problems on both sides of the ball and be an instant impact player on the offensive side. Travis Hunter could be for the Browns. That's what they expect. Abdul Carter, best pass rusher, premium position, premium picket, number three. And then, yeah, you try to move back up and go get your guy. But history tells us more often than not, when you don't have the grade, where you're like, absolutely, we're picking. I mean, they have massive needs for the future of these organizations. If they loved Shador Sanders enough, this would be a moot point. The information would be leaking out everywhere. They don't. So you don't reach for a quarterback and pass up on a future Joe Thomas or a Terrell Suggs.

[Chad Millman]

You've sufficiently put me in my place. Go ahead, Simon.

[Simon Hunter]

Just really quick. I would love to know the view, though, on Travis Hunter of what is. What is his ceiling. So, like, in your mind, you're taking him here at number two. You need him to be what, a top 25 receiver? A top 25 corner? Because people like me who are just huge NFL fans, I just don't know how it works. Like, I'm trying to wrap my head around him going up against Kyle Hamilton, getting knocked out, getting back up and then going out there and trying to cover receiver in a couple of plays where it's just like, if he goes to the. The AFC north, he doesn't survive a season. Where to me, they have Miles Garrett and they could get Carter. Why'd you just do it? You're in a division with Joe Burrow. This feels like such a Browns pick. Taking Travis Hunter here, and it's like, you know, we all get sucked into the moment. I get it. But he's a Big 12 player, wide receiver and cornerback, and now he's gonna be the number two pick. I would love to hear your view on the Browns. Why not just take Carter, play it safe. They're going for a really, like you say, a unicorn. What is. What. What do you think he needs to do to prove to be a number two pick? What is his upside? Wide receiver and cornerback.

[Todd McShay]

What if I told you you're. You're going to be able to. The number two pick in this draft to draft Shohei Atani.

[Simon Hunter]

But I really don't like Shohei.

[Todd McShay]

Okay, but my point is this, like.

[Simon Hunter]

Shohei is a freak genetically. This kid's a freak. I have seen the tape.

[Todd McShay]

He's a freak genetically, too.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, I agree.

[Todd McShay]

I listen. I only say that for devil's advocate, right? Because. Because these are the conversations that are going on. It's not a stamina thing. Like, we can erase that, because the two questions of playing both sides in the NFL, which has never been done before. I don't want to hear the Champ Bailey stuff. I don't want to hear the Charles Woodson stuff. They had like a combined six or seven catches in there, but Howard's been thrown out there. Doesn't work. Deion Prime, Coach prime was. Was the closest thing, too, and he still only had, like, 60 career catches in that long NFL career.

[Simon Hunter]

You.

[Todd McShay]

Yes. The return game, no one's done this. The durability part, I'm with you. It's. It becomes a load management thing now. Talking to coaches and talking to people in the league early on in the process, the simple thinking was like, there's 10 other guys on the defensive side. You got to communicate with, like, if we're playing cover one or cover two or cover three or quarters or cover six, like, we can't have this guy only come into, like, half the meetings and not understanding what we're trying to do conceptually. And I get that part. But then as we've gotten closer to the draft and I think as general managers have gotten involved in offensive coaches have gotten involved, like, yeah, what are you going to do you're going to draft this guy and you're not going to give him to me as a full time offensive player. You're not going to allow him to be a weapon. He's got the best ball skills of receiver I can I can think of in the last like decade and that's what no one talks about. Like it starts with he's going to catch everything in his area and then the after the catch stuff and the explosiveness.

[Simon Hunter]

So people have been hoping to Chad Johnson do you like that comp I.

[Todd McShay]

See Garrett yeah, I don't mind it Garrett Wilson. I see a lot of too like you think about Garrett. I don't want to say I just prep but like when things were going well just, just two years ago like Garrett Wilson was one of the stars in the NFL. I think that's what he can be on offense now how do you, how do you then overcome the. Maybe he's not in every meeting. Maybe we just do things differently in the league. Maybe he can be in both meetings. Maybe we figure out the schedule where he can do both. Maybe, maybe we figure out how to not flood him and we can use him in in sub packages and red zone and and yes he's not going to be your every down. He's not going to be like Christian Gonzalez was with the Patriots step in shut down corner but maybe he can provide that. Like it took the jets two picks to get Garrett Wilson and Sauce. Yeah so it took two picks. You're not going to get quite that but could you imagine with one pick to get somewhere close to that kind of impact that they they had for that that first year rookies for the jets.

[Simon Hunter]

You're in the no, it's it's a done deal. Travis Hunter too.

[Todd McShay]

I don't want to say it's a done deal because in the old this.

[Simon Hunter]

Is a betting show people can bet on this. So right now I understand that I, I yes get the over it's a good number.

[Todd McShay]

Yeah I get that but I, I would I wouldn't do anything but bet on Travis Hunter. They're the only, the only reason for reservation is the Browns. Andrew Barry's notorious in circles for misleading people so like I there's plenty of other bets. I've looked, I've been on FanDuel I've been running you know I'm looking around, my friends are calling and texting and there's plenty of other bets where the odds are better but if you're just looking like you feel really Good about getting the money. I would take that. I would take Carter at. What's Carter like? Minus 300. Now I said last week, I was like, take him. It, it's not going to get better than minus 200 for number three with the Giants. I still would take that there.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah. I'm just hoping the owner of Cleveland talks to another homeless guy in the way of the stadium before the draft and make some draft pick that way.

[Talkspace Ad]

You know, when you're really stressed or not feeling so great about your life or about yourself, talking to someone who understands can really help. But who is that person? How do you find them? Where do you even start? Talkspace. Talkspace makes it easy to get the support you need. With Talkspace you can go online, answer a few questions about your preferences and be matched with a therapist. And because you'll meet your therapist online, you don't have to take time off work or arrange childcare. You, you'll meet on your schedule wherever you feel most at ease. If you're depressed, stressed, struggling with a relationship, or if you want some counseling for you and your partner or just need a little extra one on one support, Talkspace is here for you. Plus, Talkspace works with most major insurers and most insured members have a $0 copay. No insurance, no problem. Now get $80 off of your first month with promo code space80 when you go to talkspace.com match with a licensed therapist today at talkspace.com save $80 with code [e-mail] this draft is really fun.

[Simon Hunter]

Because of the quarterback position. Like as this is a betting show right now, the over two and a half quarterbacks in the first round, it's only up to minus, you know, 450. Right. So people are hammering that because you know Milroe now getting a ton of steam. People are really talking about him. That teams, you know, the Browns, if they do take like you said, Travis Hunter, they're a team that pick 33 then moving back in the first round, taking this kid makes sense. You know, we've all heard dart with the Saints.

[Todd McShay]

I can't imagine. So I'm going to cut you off. I'm sorry. But I love this stuff. Let's just bounce back. I've got a bunch of things on my mind because I was looking through FanDuel yesterday. So I get it. It's not. It was like minus three something yesterday. So you're saying it's mine? 450.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, it's moving.

[Todd McShay]

So if you have the money in the bank, just go put it down. Because I can't see a scenario in which three don't come off the board. Now if you told me it was the overrunner was three and a half, I'd lean under. But I think the Saints sitting there at 40, even if, even if you get to pick like 23, 24, 25 and all of a sudden there's only two quarterbacks off the board. Let's say Shador fell to 21 or team moved up to get because of the concept that the the Browns are at 33. And this is why I've never seen, I've been doing this 25 years. I have never seen four quarterbacks travel the country or organizations fire up their private jet and travel all around the country to work out like there are the arms are tired of Jackson Dart, Shador Sanders, Jaylen Milro and Tyler Shuck. So and the reason they're tired is these teams are trying to figure out picking at 33, 34, the Saints at 40. Then you got to remember too there's the Raiders sitting there early in the second round. The jets may have their eye on a Jackson Dart. So like there's enough concern that okay, we've, we just flew all around the country. We just worked out these guys. The last thing we did in the scouting process with these quarterbacks. I love this guy. So you're going to just sit there and hope that that guy's waiting for you overnight coming into Friday? I just don't see it happening. So yeah, it's going to cost you a lot of money. But, but I can't imagine a scenario in which we don't have three quarterbacks in the, in the first round.

[Chad Millman]

How often do you, as an expert who goes to a lot of the events where there are private workouts and group workouts and you know, senior days, et cetera, et cetera, but also watches an inordinate amount of film on all these guys. Do you change your mind after the season after having seen all this tape and all this development? Because my, my feeling is that there is a little bit of forgetting what people have seen on tape and falling in love with what they see in real life in these private workouts that are not the same as a game and it becomes a little bit of recency bias.

[Todd McShay]

Yeah, there's just so much nuance with the quarterback position. I think people have gotten to see the combine workouts and the pro day workouts and they're staged for the. I mean the combine isn't staged, but it's the same throws. It's, you know, trying to time it out with these receivers so you're not trying to throw with anticipation. The difference with this is you bring your offensive coordinator, you bring your, your quarterback coach, you also bring your owner, you have dinner with him the night before. And yes, there's part of it where sometimes too much emphasis can go, like, I just love this guy. I want to work with him. The human being. I get that part. But there's also the install process and testing their mind and how like so much of this position, which is different than most than all the other positions in terms of the level that you need to have is the recall, thinking on the fly, how quickly you process. And it's not perfect. You know, it's not apples to. Apples to a game situation, but you can test them. And I think that's. That's the part when you're doing these private workouts. It's just as much about the brain and the timing of the operation as it is. He's got a strong arm, stronger than I thought on tape. You know, like, that part gets overrated because it's what the public gets to see versus what the public. I've never been to a private workout. You know, like scouts haven't been to the private workouts. It's the, it's the gm, the head coach, the offensive coordinator, and they're very, very much tailored to what they're looking for.

[Chad Millman]

In your opinion right now, who is the safest draft prospect this year?

[Todd McShay]

That word is tough.

[Chad Millman]

I mean, highest floor. How about highest floor, highest floors?

[Todd McShay]

Tyler Warren. There's. There's no real durability concern. You can.

[Simon Hunter]

Here's the thing.

[Todd McShay]

If you can wash out if he stays healthy, because you can say that for every prospect, but there's greater risk with certain ones than we all know. I don't know that his ceiling is necessarily as high as some of the other guys that will get drafted right near him or after him. I think Colston Loveland has a chance to maybe have a bigger yards per catch. And I don't want to say catch more passes, but. But, yeah, but more explosive and create bigger opportunities in the past game because he's a little bit more sudden, twitchy, best route runner of the tight ends. But I just don't see a scenario in which Warren, a healthy Warren, fails. Like, I like first downs, man, this guy's a first down machine. Whether it's, you know, eight, nine yards and just turn around and grind out the last two or three, or if It's a three yard little screen to him or just a quick, you know, quick hook to him and, and then he just, he's able to run after the catch. I, I'm not saying he's Gronk, but he's like the closest thing we've seen in a while since Gronk. I think he's going to be that kind of player now.

[Simon Hunter]

Someone that's followed you from a long time just because like I bet big money in the draft. Always have. Always like to find edges. And you do move markets because people trust your opinion. I mean, you know, you, you know, you've been around a long time. You did say today briefly, Genti Patriots. I would love to know more about that because that moved the market. Like, you don't even realize that it moved the market that people are like, oh my God, top five pick. And if that does happen, that's crazy. Again, you know, it's probably not gonna happen. It's more likely they're gonna go Will Campbell or who knows how draft falls. But I just thought that was interesting that, you know, this is a guy that started out at outside top 10. Now everyone's getting the love to the Raiders. Now you mentioned the Patriots. Is that, is that something that's like real or is that just. They're enamored with the athlete that he is.

[Todd McShay]

Here's the interesting part of the conversations I have. I'm never calling Mike Vrabel and be like, mike, who you taking?

[Simon Hunter]

Right?

[Todd McShay]

So it's always another GM or a personnel director who I talked. Because everyone's talking to everyone now in leagues circles. And the conversation is never, never with anyone. Even like Joe Douglas, I played college football with. We family, friends, all that. Like never once, one time, ever, never would. It's like absurd. Be like, joe, who are you taking with that pick? You know, like, it's just not how this thing goes. So it's a lot of information. Like, hey, someone who's a little lower ranking, maybe say like, hey, there, there is discussion in the building. Like Genti, the Genti's still on. And sometimes those people aren't in that final, like two or three human beings that are in the room. There's a board that's set for the whole staff, right? And then there's the real board. And that's most organizations. So it's sometimes a little leak will come out. Like, don't close the book. Like, I get the call. Like, don't close the book on Shador. I'm not sure what's going on, but they're still having discussions and. And Giants facilities, something about Shador. Don't know if that means later or. So that's what's going on now. The Ginty thing's interesting because I haven't talked to a person in the league that doesn't have him in the top five in terms of grades. And the vast majority of people I talk to have him at three. They think he's the third best player in this draft, just behind Hunter and Carter. Okay. But ahead of Mason Graham and Tyler Warren and Jalen Walker and those guys. Okay. So I can see how as you get closer, you're like, I don't know. Like, he's so special. He's got a chance to be different. But then I look at the Patriots situation, I'm like, yeah, Saquon was awesome with the Eagles, but what was he with the Giants when they couldn't? You know what I mean? So I think that's a lot of the discussion going on. I've just heard a couple Nuggets that make me. I'm not to the point. Like, I got Felica calling me the Bear all the time and we're going back and forth, forth. And Stanford, Steve, my. My longtime buddy, all my degenerate friends up here in Boston. Like, I. I spend more time on this stuff than I should, but I love it because it's fun and like trying to figure out all the maze and the puzzle. But it's one of those. Like, if the line's ridiculous, maybe you put a dollar on it. Like maybe you put a couple dollars versus putting a hundred dollars or a thousand, you know, but it's worth like, who knows? Maybe I just am getting the sense whether it's New England at four, Jaguars at five, there's a little bit more buzz than I expected to hear at this point in time. I'll say this. I wish I totally changing course here, but I was shocked yesterday when I looked and again, I'm not saying it's like a guarantee or I have solid information and go with this race in now before the line changes. But I was really interested to see Warren is plus 700 to the Jets. Like you might wanna. Yeah, right there. I see you with a pen. You might want to write that one, by the way.

[Chad Millman]

Not a pen.

[Simon Hunter]

He's betting it at plus 300.

[Todd McShay]

I tweeted that out yet last night.

[Simon Hunter]

And the. The genti. I bet it when you. When you talked about. He was 20 to 1. It's down to 16 to 1. Him to go to the Patriots. So I'm telling you, you move markets, it's crazy.

[Todd McShay]

It's the only thing in the, it's the only time anything in my entire life, including like day to day chores, that anyone listens to me. So we'll go with it.

[Chad Millman]

It's so funny, Todd. We had Felika on a few weeks ago. We had Stanford on a few weeks before that. Everybody's talking to the same fucking people. We're all talking and texting with each other. It's. It's freaking hilarious.

[Todd McShay]

I do owes me. Felika owes me like a vacation at some point after the last three years, I'm just going to say that.

[Chad Millman]

Well, I'll let him know. I'm going to text him this clip right now, please. He can, you know, put it in his Todd McShay fund.

[Todd McShay]

How do you figure out the best? I mean, I owe him more than he owes me, let's put it that way.

[Chad Millman]

But yeah, how do you figure out all these smoke signals from all these GMs and they know not only that you're calling and getting information from them, but they will potentially be trying to use you as a conduit to get information, but also they might say something to you that you could be sharing with somebody else in a sort of informal way. How do you know what to use for real in a mock versus what's someone trying to throw you off the scent?

[Todd McShay]

You get to. I've been burned before, but I haven't been totally burned in a while. And I was burned before because I was young and still developing relationships. And it's like any business, you learn who you can trust and you learn who you can't and you develop relationships. And again, no one's saying we're definitely. Even if, even when I've had conversations, when it's kind of narrowed down and it's never directly said we're either gonna take this guy or this guy. But you, when you get done with 45 minutes on the phone with the decision maker of an organization, you get a sense just as you're going through boards and having discussions. And honestly, it's rarely the answer. It's usually the question that's asked of me that tips me off. Oh, they're, they're thinking this, they're. Why is he asking me about this player? Why is he asking me about this team that picks three spots ahead? You know what I mean? That's where you just get a sense. And it's like this little dance that goes on. But here's the other part, too. GMs don't know. They know who they want. They know how their board is, but they don't know what's coming to them. You know, so there's no. I. I won one time. I think it was a barstool. I went on, right? And I'll never forget I did this. We going back and forth and they were talking, they were just, you know, being. It was a. Pardon my take, guys. And, and they're like, let's do a contest. If anyone could ever. What would you put up? If someone could get a perfect mock draft? I said, I'll put up a million dollars right now. I'll put up a million dollars right? Like, it is literally impossible that if you, if you got all 32 GMs in a room and they did a mock draft and they shared information, it still would be different. And so then the next day, I go into a production meeting before the draft and I've got one of my, one of the executives at espn, they're like, you're always causing problems. Like, now we've got, now we've got, we've got legal contacting me. Like, do we need to get take out insurance? I'm like, no, stop, stop. It was a joke. But my point was there's no way to know definitively because one trade, one team picks something that you don't expect and it throws everything off. But I do like the numbers where it's like how many of these position in the first round or if you're looking at a team and the numbers ridiculous. Like, even the Bears, they was like plus 330 yesterday for a tight end. I think those two tight ends could go Jets, Bears, Warren Loveland, in that order. I really do. And I think you could get pretty good money on that.

[Chad Millman]

All right, before we let you get out of here, Simon wants the last question.

[Simon Hunter]

Yeah, yeah. I got to get my bias. And as an Eagles fan, locally, I'm hearing from guys I respect that Eagles are basically dead set on a tight end. And the fact that Dallas got her, you know, last year of his deal, he's above the age of 30, guy has hard, tough times. Stay on the field. Is it a guarantee that they trade down and take one or trade up against these Titans, or do you think that this is a deep enough class that you wouldn't touch that market? Just, you don't know what, how he's going to do at that end of the pick. So it's not worth betting on them taking a tight end. There.

[Todd McShay]

Yeah, I, I said Mason Taylor to them a few weeks ago and as just kind of like keep an eye on this. And I feel like that's starting to grow that, that concept. And I do think it's something how he would do. I don't see him moving up for Mason Taylor. If one of these defensive linemen start to fall and I mean, you've got seven guys at the edge position. If one of them starts to fall, you've got like five guys at interior defensive line. I could see maybe up two, three spots, something like that. I think he's more likely to move back out of that spot if he's looking at it. He's like, wait, there's. There's still a quarterback or two. I've got the, I've got the Browns, the Giants sitting there. There's. There's two interior defensive linemen and Mason Taylor. I can probably move back 3, 4, 5 spots and still get that same player and pick up a third rounder or what, a third, fourth rounder. So I could envision that. I do like Mason Taylor there. It makes a lot of sense. It's a Howie guy, but they also, you know, you got Malachi Starks and Nick Eamon worry safety is a position they could address. Interior and addresser, we know even if they don't have a need, they could go there. And this class is loaded. So once again, even if you just stay home at 32, which Howie is pretty incapable of doing if anyone who knows him, but if they stay home at that spot, someone's going to fall to them there. And so that'll be interesting to see.

[Chad Millman]

All right, Todd McShay. If there were a Hall of Fame for NFL draft analysts, Todd McShay would be in the inaugural class. That is why you're too much. Must subscribe to his newsletter, the McShay Report. Catch the NFL Draft YouTube livestream on Thursday. Next Thursday on the McShay Show. Todd, excellent work as always. Good luck.

[Todd McShay]

This is fun, guys. We'll have to, we'll have to revisit it and hopefully, hopefully we made some money and didn't lose anyone money today.

[Chad Millman]

Well, listen, Felika's got to buy a new house, so let's hope it works out.

[Simon Hunter]

Take care, guys.

[Chad Millman]

Thank you.

[Simon Hunter]

All right, thanks, Todd.

[Chad Millman]

As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by bet365 and new bet365. Customers get $150 in bonus bets when you bet $5. Sign up using promo code. Favorites, deposit $10. Place a bet for $5 to get $150 in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. A bet365 must be 21 or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or 18 and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem call 1-800- gambler or 1-8-800- bets off in Iowa. Terms conditions restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Thursday, 1:30pm Eastern. Talking NFL Draft with special guest Thor Nystrom, inspired by his colleague Matthew Friedman at Fantasy Life, who said Thor is better at this than he is. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate reviews. Subscribe, Leave us five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.

[Talkspace Ad]

Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800- gambler. You know, when you're really stressed or not feeling so great about your life or about yourself, talking to someone who understands can really help. But who is that person? How do you find them? Where do you even start? Talkspace Talkspace makes it easy to get the support you need. With Talkspace, you can go online, answer a few questions about your preferences and be matched with a therapist. And because you'll meet your therapist online, you don't have to take time off work or arrange childcare. You'll meet on your schedule wherever you feel most at ease. If you're depressed, stressed, struggling with a relationship, or if you want some counseling for you and your partner or just need a little extra one on one support, Talkspace is here for you. Plus, Talkspace works with most major insurers and most insured members have a $0 copay. No insurance, no problem. Now get $80 off of your first month with promo code space80 when you go to talkspace.com, match with a licensed therapist today at talkspace.com save $80 with code [e-mail].