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- [00:00]
Sarah Spain
This is an iHeart podcast tired of.
- [00:05]
Announcer
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- [01:06]
Sarah Spain
And Sarah Spain in celebrating the one year anniversary of iHeart Women's Sports with powerful interviews and insider analysis. Our shows have connected fans with the heart of women's Sports. In just one year, the network has launched 15 shows and built a community united by passion podcasts that amplify the voices of women in sports. Thank you for supporting iHeart women's sports and our founding sponsors E L F Beauty, Capital One and Novartis. Just open the free iHeart app and search iHeart Women's Sports to listen now.
- [01:36]
Will Ferrell
My Uncle Chris was a real character, a garbage truck driver from South Carolina who is now buried in Panama City alongside the founding families of Panama. He also happens to be responsible for the craziest night of my life. Wild stories about adventure, romance, crime, history and war intertwine as I share the tall tales and hard truths that have helped me understand Uncle Chris. Listen now to Uncle Chris on Will Ferrell's Big Money Players Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.
- [02:09]
Announcer
Check out behind the Flow, a podcast documentary series following the launch of San Diego Football Club.
- [02:17]
San Diego coming to MLS is gonna be a game changer because this region has been hungry for a men's professional soccer team.
- [02:24]
Simon Hunter
We need to embrace this community.
- [02:28]
Announcer
Listen to San Diego FC behind the Flow on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [02:47]
Chad Millman
Welcome to the Favorites, the Podcast part of the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. Let's get to it folks, we're going to welcome in my co host, my companion, my compadre, my bff, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon.
- [03:03]
Will Ferrell
Chad.
- [03:04]
Simon Hunter
Another week closer to football, brother.
- [03:06]
Chad Millman
We're getting there. What I don't like. Here's what I don't like. I don't like when people are like, only four more Sundays till kickoff. Because the truth is I also like my Sundays as they are right now. Like the other day it was Sunday, I was reading, you know, at like 11 o' clock and it was stress free. And I thought to myself, very soon my Sundays are not going to be stress free and they're going to be super busy. So as much as I'm looking forward to the season and what we're doing today, I don't want people like counting me down. You know what I mean?
- [03:45]
Simon Hunter
That tweet's not for you. Then I need to count down because I get lost in the summer where I'm just got my head on my own ass and all of a sudden I see that I'm like, oh my God, only seven more weeks of faking like I'm a normal person so I can back to the real life of life with football.
- [03:57]
Chad Millman
I am, I am six weeks from my younger son leaving the house for college. I don't need reminders that time is passing us by.
- [04:09]
Simon Hunter
You can't wait. Empty nester. It's the best. Chad just walk around in his underwear. Can't wait.
- [04:15]
Chad Millman
I already walk around in my underwear. Today we are doing our annual summer episode diving into the top 10 fantasy moves of the NFL off season. And we're going to bring in the big guns. How do I define the big guns, you may ask? Well, last week there was a very special release from the independent website we've cited here many, many times. Fantasy Pros. Fantasy Pros objectively ranks the projections of the top fantasy football experts in the world. We cite fantasy Bros. Rankings all the time. Gives us A composite top 10 list of the most accurate fantasy football projections over the past three NFL seasons. That's what they just released on today's show. We are lucky enough to have 20% of that list on the show. That's right, two people from that top 10 list. You could then hear them every week talking all things fantasy on Action Network's Fantasy Flex podcast. Our beloved colleagues, two of the best in the freaking business. Sean Kroner called the goat of fantasy projections by fantasy pros last year. Not to be undone. Outdone, hot on his heels for goatness. Chris Raybone, boys It is so good to see you.
- [05:46]
Chris Raybon
Likewise.
- [05:48]
Chad Millman
Anyone respond? Have you guys never done a show.
- [05:51]
Sean Kerner
Mid season form like do you know.
- [05:54]
Chris Raybon
You left me speechless. Although Chad, I do agree with you with these countdowns for the season starting, but I'm. I'm also excited for the start of preseason. I think you're missing out on, you know, some preseason action too.
- [06:06]
Chad Millman
That's true. There is some preseason action. We're going to get to that. God, I mean, we'll probably got preseason action in three weeks. Listen, I'm glad you guys decided to speak. That's fantastic. Rayvon, hello. I don't know that you've had a comment so far and I know I didn't ask a question, but we're just conversating here.
- [06:26]
Sean Kerner
Miss you, Chad. Glad to be back. A little disappointed that the NBA finals couldn't go longer because I think I did even better on that than I did in fantasy projections. But excited to get another season going and hopefully I can match Sean once again.
- [06:42]
Chad Millman
Let's dig in boys. Chris and Sean, you've both compiled a top 10 list of your own outlining the 10 biggest moves of the NFL off season. Chris, you are up first. I'm going to ask you give me your biggest move from the off season.
- [07:00]
Sean Kerner
So I think the biggest move is Liam cone going from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville to become the head coach. He was calling plays in Tampa last year and I just think this has the potential, potential to be a massive upswing for the Jags offense and it's gonna, it could create massive value for pretty much every single Jags fantasy player versus their adp. So last season was Cone's only season coordinating the Bucks running that offense. He took him from 20.5 points per game in 2023 to 29.5 last season. That's a nine point increase. That's pretty much unheard of. And we already thought they were, you know, doing well just with Canalis and they might even take a step back without him. So Liam cone did a great job there. I think Trevor Lawrence can be his ADPs going around the quarterback 20. I think he should be more so a low end QB1, high end QB2. I have him QB12, rookie Basil Tutin at running back. I think he could smash his ADPs going as their running back 44. I have him about five spots higher right now. His ceiling's even higher. Brian Thomas Jr. Has upside to be the number one wide receiver in the entire NFL this year. So you know, I know last year, Simon, we were just talking off Air how Sean was super high on him and he ended up crushing. I don't think it's, it's done now like this. This offense with the potential for Trevor Lawrence to improve and take a step forward. I think Thomas has an unlimited ceiling even with Travis Hunter there. Best ball Diami Brown, tight end Brenton Strange. Both of those guys, I think are going to provide some value as well, but really just love this cone move. And if you look at, so we'll look at like, okay, well what's he going to do? Well, I think he helps Trevor Lawrence in four distinct ways. Quick passing game. Lawrence was bottom five in yards per attempt and throws under two and a half seconds. So those are kind of, you know, the, the, the design throws and the things that the coordinator can really kind of scheme up and, and help the quarterback, you know, kind of determine where he should go with the ball and get it out. He wasn't getting any help last year. Just 5.1 yards in attempt. Baker Mayfield was up at 6.8. He was top two in in yardage and touchdowns on throws under two and a half route combinations. Scheming guys, opening space. Trevor Lawrence 4.8 yards after catch per completion. Did his receivers average May Mayfield was up at 6.0 and he had, he took a significant jump from the year before when Comb wasn't there in the red zone. Trevor Lawrence has really struggled his entire career. That's one of the reasons why he really hasn't broken out. 20% red zone touchdown conversion rate Mayfield went from 23% in 2023 to 37% last year with cone and some of the red zone routes and things that the play calling down there was really, really good, I thought for the Bucks last year. And then the run game, cone got guys to buy in and he took a Bucs run game that you remember two years, 22 and 23. They were bottom of the league in rushing. Couldn't do anything. He took an offensive line that was 31st in yards before contact to sixth last year. And it wasn't just Bucky Irving, the line. Those are the yards before contact. You're going to see more reflected in that number. But it was both of the same tackles, one of the same interior linemen. So three of the same five linemen starting and a rookie center. So a lot of it was just cone getting guys to buy in and switching up the run schemes and things. Which is why I also like Bashaw Tootin, the rookie running back. I think ETN and Bigsby are kind of shaky Right now like you gotta kind of it's touch and go. I think one of those guys will probably be a healthy and active or may end up off the roster by the time that the season starts. But the reason I like Tutin is because when you look at Bucky Irving last year he was a day three pick first week of the season, 11 touches, first three weeks, 10 touches per game. So he had a role right off the bat in Con's offense. So did rookie Jaylen McMillan, 80% snap count right off the bat. So I don't think they drafted Tootin for no reason. This guy's got blazing speed. He no one's going to be Bucky Irving. But Tuton's upside like his ceiling is Bucky Irving. He's going as the RB44. So I just really love what Con could bring to this entire Jags offense from Lawrence to Thomas on down.
- [11:42]
Chad Millman
Simon, I know you want to, you want to as Sean about his top of the board impact move, but let me ask quick follow up for Chris which is give me your. You know Simon and I have talked about our top 10 quarterback lists and we both like Baker as a top 10 quarterback. We both had him at number 10. You're just talking about how important Liam Cohen was to Baker's success. How much of an impact do you think cone leading has on Baker's success this year?
- [12:16]
Sean Kerner
I think it's going to be a little bit of a downgrade. I mean Baker just put up such an amazing and not just Baker, that Bucs offense in general, I mean put up such an amazing season. Chad, you and I have talked about this that there's going to be some natural regression that I'm factoring in. I still think Baker is a top 10 fantasy quarterback, but he was a QB3 last year. I think he's going to be more toward the low end of that QB one. You know, the middle to the low end. Somewhere in that 6 to 12 range. I think I have him number number six. So I expect a little bit of regression. You know, still has a lot of weapons and a decent O line, but Cone's impact cannot be understated either. So I think really you're looking at Lawrence kind of closing that gap to Mayfield. Because remember before cone got there, Mayfield was kind of Lawrence and Mayfield were kind of the same guy. It was like a guy who was drafted number one overall, didn't, hadn't really broken out, had some shaky coaching throughout much of his career, some shaky supporting cast and whatnot. So I think it really helps Lawrence, but I do expect Baker to take a bit of a step back just because it's really hard to put up 41 touchdowns, you know, year over year like so I think you're going to see some regression there.
- [13:28]
Simon Hunter
Sean, we all know the key to winning leagues, it really is to hitting those late round veterans. Right. But it's also the unknown. The rookies like that. To me, so many years I did so well as veteran quarterback veterans in certain positions, but I took high risk plays on rookies. Last year was the freak year of all years. Right. Like these rookies last year, we never seen anything like that. Right. Between Bowers neighbors, Bucky Jane Daniels. Like we never had anything like that. I love right away we're talking about Jacksonville. Break it down to me, Travis Hunter, what do we think ahead into the season with him and his value right now, where he's going at in the drafts?
- [14:03]
Chris Raybon
Yeah, so I mean one of the biggest offseason moves I thought was the Jaguars trading up to get Travis Hunter the second overall pick because he is a true unicorn player, a two way player at Colorado and he's not just like, you know, solid okay on both ends. He was dominant as a wide receiver and a cornerback. So I mean he won the Blitnikov Award as the nation's top receiver and was named the defensive player of the year. So he's similar to Shohei Ohtani where he's like truly one of the best on both sides, at least at the collegiate level. We'll see how that translates to the NFL. But it's just going to be fascinating to see, you know, how they plan on using him on offense and defense. I think that's one of the things I'm going to be looking for in training camp. So, you know, right now he's going around wide receiver 30 in early drafts, which might be a little too rich just given just the uncertainty on just how much he will play on offense. He might need to sit some plays or drives to stay fresh if he's playing a lot of defense too. So this is one of those situations where I agree with Raybon, where Liam Cohen could really, you know, create a breakout season for Trevor Lawrence. And then, you know, Travis Hunter would probably hit at wide receiver 30. But there is some uncertainty here. But I will say from a personal point of view, I can't wait to project in the season. We might see the first ever receptions plus tackles prop we've ever seen with Travis Hunter. So I'll be waiting for that. And I will bet it Even if there's a slight edge one way or the other. But I can't wait to potentially have a receptions and tackles prop. So I'm hoping books are going to, you know, plan offering that market this year.
- [15:43]
Chad Millman
Well, look, last year Simon said off the top you nailed Brian Thomas, right? Like I remember in one of our preview shows you were talking about Brian Thomas Jr. And his ability to impact the Jags and that you thought he might be the most important player, most important receiver drafted in the first round. So you crush that one. It's interesting to me both you and Sean and I don't know are you and Chris and I don't know if you guys coordinated this, have moved to the Jaguars as your most significant impact off season moves and as someone who is thinking about when Simon and I are going to do our playoff team predictions, the Jags are one of those teams that I'm struggling with and all of a sudden I'm feeling differently based on what you guys just said.
- [16:37]
Simon Hunter
Remember Chad, this is fantasy we're talking here though.
- [16:40]
Chris Raybon
Just keep it.
- [16:40]
Sean Kerner
I know, and it's the thing about the Jags is look at their ADPs. That's really what it is. Like Simon said, it's about value. They're likely top running back by the end of the year is going outside the top 40. Travis Hunter, one of the most talented wide receivers to come out of this, you know, of this generation is the wide receiver 30, Brian Thomas, who has number overall fantasy player like Justin Jefferson, Jamar Chase type upside is going wide receiver eight. Their tight end is going 20th, their quarterback is going 20th. I mean everybody is a value in this offense in terms of their ceiling and that's what you need in fantasy ceiling. You don't want to hit on every pick, but if you hit some ceiling plays, you're good.
- [17:24]
Chad Millman
Chris, speaking of ceiling, I don't know how much there is for your next big off season impact quarterback, but explain what is next on your board.
- [17:38]
Sean Kerner
Yeah, so I'm going to group these three together. Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, Jonas Smith to the Steelers and I think, listen, Aaron Rodgers, we know I've been ready to write him off for ages now. He is what he is. But I do think that this move could be good for the DK Metcalf because you're going to an Arthur Smith offense. Remember Arthur Smith? You know, Metcalf's playing the position, that X position. AJ Brown was a top 15 wide receiver with a pretty shaky quarterback play and a low volume pass offense for Arthur Smith. Drake London, that was his role as well. And what we know about Aaron Rodgers is number one. He's going to throw a lot of passes. I mean, last year on the jets who were supposed to be like a good defense or whatever. Like Aaron Rodgers was, you know, top two in the league in pass attempts. So I think Pittsburgh could throw a little more than we might even expect. You know, they have been aggressive at going out and trying to rebuild their pass offense. But also, Aaron Rodgers always has an alpha receiver, right? Like last season, he targeted Garrett Wilson 26 and a half percent of his routes before Devonte got there, then Devonte 27 and a half when once he got there. That's pretty much across the board almost every year, except I think that one year in Green Bay when guys were hurt. Aaron Rodgers is going to just force feed his number one receivers. So DK Metcalf kind of got usurped last year by Jackson Smith, Najigba Metcalf really, you know, he's. It was locket and then it was, you know, jsn. So Metcalf really hasn't had that opportunity in a while to be, you know, this guy that's. That can get, you know, 28, 30% target share. But in this offense, he definitely could. So I think this is good for him. And Arthur Smith, you know, he loves John who Smith. I know, you know, he's been kind of downgraded since, since he got there. But this is, this is a guy who. He was the tight end two, the number two tight end behind Kyle Pitts and had a very, very good season and a lot of TE1 weeks. So I think that this, you know, it, it looks ugly because of Rodgers and, you know, they have a good defense this and that. But especially for Metcalf, I think he's got significant upside. I wouldn't shy away from him at all. I think the route combinations that Smith is going to ask him to run, they kind of got away from that in, in Seattle in these last couple of years. But I think it really is going to suit Metcalf particularly well.
- [20:21]
Chad Millman
Ray Ban, excellent use of the word usurped. And we appreciate you continuing to make this the most literate sports betting podcast in America. Simon Take away.
- [20:35]
Simon Hunter
Sean, last year I called my shot on Saquon. I remember I came on the show and I laughed how I was getting Saquon in the third round in every league. I couldn't believe it. I said on the show I had him at number three, not third running back, third overall in drafts and the pushback was the Hertz Tush push, which I totally understood. But my pushback was he's going from the Giants offensive line to the Eagles offensive line. And we saw a play out right. And even with bad luck, I think there's some crazy stats. Aquan had 10 tackles at the one and he only scored two of those. The other eight went to Hurts this year. My guy. I'm so happy he's on your list. Genti to the Raiders. Talk about it to me, baby. I'm all in. Am I crazy for taking him in the first round? Am I drinking the Kool Aid? Should I be calming down here? What's, what am I seeing the others aren't seeing on this kid right now? Because I love the value he's going for in drafts right now. You can either get him late first, early second in most drafts right now.
- [21:29]
Chris Raybon
Yeah, no, I don't, I don't think you're crazy for taking him. You know, he's a considered by many a generational running back talent. I mean, he went six overall to the Raiders. Make him just the sixth running back drafted inside the top 10 over the past decade. I mean, he led all of college football and rushing by over 600 yards, which, you know, it's insane production. Sure, he played at Boise State, so he wasn't, you know, facing SEC level defenses or anything, but when you just look at the underlying metrics, his measurables back him up as just being an elite prospect. And I do love this landing spot as well for, you know, for him, but also for the Raiders. You know, they ranked dead last in EPA per rush last year, so that wasn't going to fly with new head coach Pete Carroll. So he, he had to get his guy here in the top 10. So he's going to be a workhorse back from day one, you know, both running the ball and you know, being on passing downs like he's going to catch balls as well. So that's kind of a rare thing these days. We have a lot of committees. But he's going to be a true workhorse back and push, you know, top five value as a rookie. And Chad, I'm thrilled to say you don't need to ask me on the side about sincere McCormick props this year. No need for that because this is Genti's backfield. He has zero competition and again, as long as he stays healthy, he could push top five upside here.
- [22:52]
Simon Hunter
What do you think? Top five pick by September?
- [22:56]
Chris Raybon
Not five overall? Yeah, no.
- [23:00]
Simon Hunter
I think if he has one good Preseason game. The steam is going to be insane.
- [23:05]
Chris Raybon
That's true. Because he, he probably will get some reps in preseason. A lot of these vets we won't see in preseason have those highlight plays, but we could see, you know, an 80 yard touchdown run by him and that could certainly bump him up. I think it would take a lot to get him inside the top five. There's some good receivers. Yeah. You know, that it would require to fall out of the top five, but certainly, you know, top 10 if the hype is there, I could certainly see him, you know, getting inside of the top 10 before the season starts.
- [23:33]
Chad Millman
Turner, I sincerely thank you for allowing me to not have to ask you about. Sincere, McCormick, props this year for both of us. And I thank you for continuing to allow us to make this the most literate sports betting podcast in America. Ray Brown, staying on the theme of running backs. Give it to me.
- [23:56]
Sean Kerner
Yeah. So let's talk a Marion Hampton going to the Chargers now. Najee Harris also going to the Chargers from Pittsburgh. I don't think this is good for Najee. You know, he was a guy that we could kind of rely on as well. And running back two in Pittsburgh, he would always get enough volume ahead of Jalen Warren. But now I think he's more firmly in that running back three territory, you know, outside the top 30. But remember, this is a Greg Roman offense. And last season they had like, the ghost of J.K. dobbins and the ghost of Gus Edwards. Like, those are their two top running backs. And so I don't think they ran the ball as much as they even wanted to. And they were still 12th in running back carries and seventh in rushing touchdowns for running backs. And in the 13 games with Dobbins, they averaged 10 more carries per game for their backs than they did in the four that he missed. So Greg Roman, every single year that he's been a coordinator, his offenses have finished top 11 in rushing attempts, but really it was top nine and top. Really top seven all but two years. And his worst finish was last year, the first time he finished outside the top then. And I think it was because you had, you know, Edwards really couldn't do anything. Kamani Vidal was a nothing. And then Dobbins got hurt for four games. So I do think that you're going to see a significant uptick in rushing attempts for the Chargers this season, and I think it benefits Hampton the most. I mean, you don't draft a guy right there, you know, in the first round if you're not intending to to use them a ton. That's just what we've seen. If you go back and look at, you know, first round running back picks, especially this day and age where, you know, the position is a little bit devalued, this was a deeper running back class. So the fact that Hampton still went, you know, right outside, right there, outside the top 20 in this draft to the Chargers, I think is significant. So I like him to, to, to be a, you know, he has RB1 upside. And remember Dobbins was splitting work with Gus Edwards when he was healthy too. Like, Gus Edwards was hurt some of the time, but Dobbins and Edwards were kind of splitting work and Dobbins was still a very, very productive high upside back last year for the Chargers. So I think Hampton can kind of slide right in that role as a younger guy. And then Najee is going to kind of be an upgrade on Edwards, but that's a downgrade for Najee, so. So I think those two guys are going in opposite directions. And I'm not even going to talk about the, the July 4th incident with Mr. Harris.
- [26:42]
Chad Millman
I mean, what the. I'm not a, like, look, I, I like I've made my mistakes with fireworks. I can remind everybody of the circa 1985 Bottle Rocket War that my friends and I had on the playground at Ravinia Grammar School.
- [27:03]
Sean Kerner
They had fireworks in 1985.
- [27:06]
Chad Millman
Well, we made him at home. Matches and cardboard and hollowed out ski poles. But come on man, like you're an adult at this point. You got to know how to manage the fireworks. Especially if you're a professional athlete. Especially when we have professional athlete fireworks cautionary tales stories. Good God.
- [27:35]
Simon Hunter
I have one stupid fireworks story and it's when I was 16, which I think there's a cut off after you're at it. Once you're into your 20s, you shouldn't be having stupid firework conversations. Right John? So my bad one was, had a party in my basement, 16 years old, buddy brings over fireworks and we have the bright idea to throw fireworks at one another in my basement. And again Simon, that's what, that's what.
- [27:59]
Chad Millman
I did when I was 15 years old on a playground with hollowed out ski poles, shooting them at each other.
- [28:06]
Simon Hunter
And sure enough, pretty drunk, someone standing against a couch and it says I'm kind of hot. And they turn around and my entire couch was lit up in fire in my parents basement. And my house smelled like bird plastic for a month. God bless my parents chat. Sean, let's get to you, my guy.
- [28:24]
Chad Millman
Speaking of Speaking of setting stuff on fire, Sean.
- [28:31]
Simon Hunter
This is Chad's question, so I'm shocked. I'm the gun that gets to ask it. Ben Johnson, the Bears. How fired up we for the fantasy aspect of it is there. Are there guys you're upgrading because of it? Like, give me everything. Ben Johnson, Bears fantasy talk yeah, so.
- [28:47]
Chris Raybon
I think this is one of the biggest off season moves was, you know, the Bears hiring Ben Johnson to be the head coach, you know, after he was the Lions offensive coordinator the past three seasons, led them to be one of the top offenses in the league. I mean, he's just like a really creative play caller, really innovative. I think he's going to be able to maximize this offense, which, you know, has a handful of fantasy relevant players. But it starts with Caleb Williams, who is last year's number one overall pick, who had a very up and down rookie season. You know, sure, some of that you could blame on Caleb, but I think a lot of it had to do with poor coaching. And his offensive line didn't help either. He took 68 sacks. I mean, if you watch any Bears game, you knew that was the big issue, was all those sacks. But according to the underlying metrics, he was responsible for about 45% of those sacks, which is right in line with league average. So I think just with improved offensive line, you know, they signed a handful of veterans this year, should improve the offensive line. But I think, you know, Ben Johnson's ability to scheme plays should help Caleb, you know, the first read will be open, so that's going to, you know, help prevent a lot of these detrimental sacks and throwing the ball away, things like that. So I think that's going to help a ton. I was also pleased to see, you know, they, they drafted two quality pass catchers in the draft in Luther Burden. Colson Loveland, who I loved heading into the draft, he gives me Jimmy Graham vibes like he's going to be a legit tight end. And I just love the fact that he landed with Ben Johnson. If you remember a couple years ago, I was all worked up that Sam Laporta got drafted by the Lions in the second round and he broke the rookie record for receptions this season until Brock Bowers broke it last year. But still, it goes to show that just a really good tight end can excel as a rookie in this offense. So, you know, Loveland's a guy I've been attacking at the, you know, late tight end, one range. I think it's a great landing spot for him. On the flip side, there could be a ripple effect here. You know, the Lions offense has been damn near perfect these last couple seasons. So if we see any regression, which is just probably coming no matter what, I think people kind of point to Ben Johnson being gone being the reason why. So I think just it was a massive coaching move that impacts half of the, you know, the NFC North. So I think this is just a massive, massive offseason move. And you know, it gives me confidence. Caleb Williams having a year two breakout. You know, I like DJ Moore, Rumba Dunes, they could bounce back this year. So it has a ton of fancy implications. And you know, a lot of people are very optimistic about the Bears this year. I know that scares you, Chad, but I think, I think it's warranted here.
- [31:37]
Sean Kerner
Don't forget about the, the old line. They redid their entire interior. Joe Tooney drew down and those are both. Tooney was number seven out of 77 guards. Downman was number four out of 40 centers and Jonah Jackson graded highly as well. So you have that interior line. So don't even sleep on a guy like DeAndre Swift. Like, you know, like this whole offense I think could take a step forward to Sean's point.
- [32:02]
Chad Millman
Number one. Excellent point. Chris Raybon. I was going to say that offensive line, it could be, it will be much improved. Could be a top five offensive line. Yeah, number one. Number two, Roma Dunes A doesn't need to bounce back. Roma Dunze had a productive rookie season in a very challenging offensive environment in which his quarterback was constantly struggling and a little bit playing hero ball and didn't quite have the touch on some of the passes that went to Roma Dunze that he probably should have had and they probably developed better chemistry. Also don't forget he had a terrible offensive coordinator, a terrible head coach and until the middle of the season none of this was going to get fixed. And then they just put everything in place to have the placeholder for the rest of the year. So like I couldn't be more confident right now, which does not bode well for any of this. Love the Colston Loveland pick. Love the Luther Burden pick. When Luther Burden was drafted, that was what was lighting up the Chicago friends text chain was oh my God, we got Luther Burden. To me, this is a guy with so much upside who got dropped a little bit because for a variety of non football reasons in the draft, Ryan Poles just got a five year contract extension and I think the enthusiasm of the moment is what got him that deal because he's been able to draft so much talent and make some decent moves maneuvering the pieces on the board. So yeah the Bears I think it's a it's another one talking about the playoffs like Simon I'm trying to figure out am I being over optimistic with the Bears. Do I see the regression with the Lions? How does Jordan Love and the packers play into this?
- [33:49]
Simon Hunter
Well, it's tough I would say because your division and the fact that we know that Caleb had a wasted year like the man had no one watch a film. No one was coaching him last year. I like I'm with you. I wanted to be all in on the Bears. To me this is like the true rookie year for Caleb. Let him comfortable in the offense. But me and Chad talk all the time that year two jump Caleb has all the talent in the world. Him and Ben Johnson if they are in capatico in sing Chad I mean I'm with you like if you guys have an 8 and 1 start. 9 and 2. Holy shit. Bears fans go crazy just because you finally have the quarterback and you have the coach. I I get why you're and you're at the very edge of not just going absolutely insane right now because the upside is so excited for this Bears offense.
- [34:33]
Chad Millman
Get ready for misery.
- [34:37]
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- [35:37]
Check out behind the Flow, a podcast documentary series following the launch of San Diego Football Club. We go behind the scenes and explore the stories of those involved.
- [35:49]
San Diego coming to MLS is going to be a game changer because this region has been hungry for a men's professional soccer team.
- [35:57]
Chris Raybon
We need veteran players and we need young players.
- [35:59]
Simon Hunter
Like you're building a team from scratch.
- [36:00]
Sean Kerner
And so so the succession plan of.
- [36:02]
Chris Raybon
Long term success needs to be defined.
- [36:04]
Simon Hunter
We need to embrace this community.
- [36:08]
Announcer
When I was 13, my uncle took me to a qualifier and we watched Paraguay against Chile, pouring rain. Just watching the fans jumping up and down, I think that was definitely a watershed moment for me. Not only was that gonna be my game, but it was gonna be my life.
- [36:25]
Listen to San Diego FC behind me, the Flow now on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [36:36]
Chad Millman
What do you got next?
- [36:38]
Sean Kerner
So the Patriots added rookie running back Trayvon Henderson. He is extremely fast. I think he could be kind of like that when those James White seasons, like when James White was a monster. That's, that's Henderson's upside in this offense. And then Stefan Diggs, you know, it's kind of going under the radar. And yes he's coming off an injury and he's going to a new team, but he's going outside the top 40 in most fantasy drafts. And remember this is, you know, Josh McDaniels coming back here. He had a kind of aging guy in Devonte Adams a couple years ago, his first year when he went to the Raiders and they just targeted him to. It was just. They just force fed him the ball. So I think with a guy like Drake May number one, I think Henderson and Diggs increase the likelihood that Drake may can take, you know, somewhat of a step forward in year two. Now it's, you know, still learning a new offense. So I'm not going to say he's going to be like a bona fide quarterback one, but he does have that kind of upside because he can run it too. And he just had the worst supporting cast with just guys who really couldn't create much of anything for him last season. So just adding a guy like Diggs, Henderson, you also added Kyle Williams in the draft. You know, jury's out on him, but he should, he should get a chance to play some meaningful snaps as well. So just an improved supporting cast from May. I think he has, he's a great quarterback two option that, that you can kind of get if you wait. And Giggs, I think people are underestimating Diggs because you know, maybe his median projection is, you know, around, you know, that, that low end wide receiver 3 range but his ceiling is still much higher. He could be an absolute target monster in this offense because the drop off from Diggs to everybody else, I mean there's no real contest there. So really like Diggs and then Henderson is a guy who may be used in that, you know, kind of James White role. And it also is creating a little bit of value, I think on Ramondre Stevenson as well, because you know where he's going like outside the top 40 at running back, he could still be the lead back. And Henderson, you know, could get, you know, a lot of his touches in the receiving game as well. So I do think there's some intrigue here. And this is another one of these offenses where people just don't really know what to do with it. And so all these guys are kind of going like there's no one really going that high in drafts. But I think Drake May is an extremely talented quarterback and you know, just going to a competent offense with a competent supporting cast this year. The O line should be better too. Should be night and day for Drake May, even though, you know he. That he's kind of going to that McDaniels offense, which is. Is a new offense. But really think Stefan Diggs is being. Being underrated here.
- [39:33]
Chad Millman
Quick poll. Before we get. Before Simon, you ask Kroner his next question. Quick poll. I've said a line in my head of how many wins Mike Vrabel will be responsible for this season because of excellent, thoughtful coaching decisions. I've got the line in my head. I will tell you if you've gone over or under after everyone gives me their answer. Simon, give me your answer. How many wins is Mike Vrabel personally responsible for because of strategic decisions?
- [40:06]
Simon Hunter
I give them two.
- [40:08]
Chris Raybon
Kroner, I'm gonna go with. Your line is exactly one and a half.
- [40:14]
Chad Millman
I like where you're at. You're at. You're wrong. But give me your answer.
- [40:20]
Chris Raybon
Yeah, I'll say one.
- [40:21]
Chad Millman
Huh? Interesting. Okay, Raybon, I would put the line.
- [40:26]
Chris Raybon
At.
- [40:29]
Sean Kerner
Two and a half. You're in a division with the jets, baby. And the Dolphins. And the Dolphins.
- [40:34]
Chad Millman
And so what's your number on how many wins he gets you?
- [40:37]
Sean Kerner
I mean, I think, I think it's going to be between 2 and 3. Like realistically, like if you look at his like the Pythagorean wins versus actual, he's usually above, you know, overperform somewhere in that range. So yeah, I, I wouldn't see it out of the question. He's definitely adding at least. At least one, but I do think he can add multiple. So I'm going to go somewhere between two and three.
- [40:59]
Chad Millman
My line was two and a half and my expectation was. Was three.
- [41:04]
Simon Hunter
There you go.
- [41:05]
Chad Millman
Chris Raybon and I, as usual, a midseason mind meld. Simon, take it away.
- [41:13]
Simon Hunter
Sean, you have another Great name on the list. Here I am another, another one calling my shot. I am down on Puka. To me he's on the most overdrafted players right now in fantasy football. Would not be taking Puka in the first round. You're out of your mind. You're taking a guy with his injury risk. No one's down the talent. It just can he stay healthy now he's the no doubt number one. Break it down. I mean devonte Adams, I'm drafting in every league. I'm all in on devonte Adams, him and Stafford. To me that's the perfect mix in this McVeigh offense of schemed open receiver and his style where he is so smooth. Still, still got it his old age, I mean shocking. He could burn Corners Young 21 year olds. Last year on the jets even more motivated this season. Where you at with devonte Adams and the Rams?
- [42:00]
Chris Raybon
So first off, I, I'm not low on Puka at all. That's all you. But I'm in agreement, I'm in agreement with you that this is a good fit. You know, Devonte going to the Rams with McVay, you know, this is his third team in the last 12 months. So I think people are sick of just projecting him on new teams. That's why this might be flying out of the radar a bit. Plus, you know, he's 32, so he's clearly in the decline phase of his career. But he looked great last year. So I think he still has one or two really solid seasons left at least. But I think this is, this is a great landing spot for, you know, Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense who really struggled in goal to go to go situations. Last year. Stafford only completed 41% of his passes in goal to go situations which is 32nd out of 41 quarterbacks. So he only threw 20 touchdowns which is the fewest in any season of his career where he's played 15 plus games. So that's where I think Adams can immediately make an impact just being, you know, elite end zone threat for him. So you know it's going to help boost the incoming positive touchdown regression but I think it's going to help this offense because you know, Puka Nuku is great getting the ball down the field and into the red zone, but he hasn't been much of a touchdown guy. And you know, Cooper Cup, I hate to say it but he was sort of washed last year and he was banged up. So Stafford didn't really have that second option like he typically does. So that's where Adams is going to step up and this, this is really huge for Matthew Stafford I think and I can't go a whole show without a player prop so I would say that the actual advice here is Matthew Stafford's passing touchdown prop is 22 and a half. I think that's a couple touchdowns too low so I'm taking that over because he is due for some positive touchdown regression solely due to, you know, Devonte Adams being in the mix this year.
- [43:51]
Chad Millman
Well, Simon loves Matthew Stafford. Loves Matthew Stafford. Raybon due to outwell baby don't forget about him.
- [43:59]
Sean Kerner
He's gonna see he's gonna, he's gonna be a full time player this year. Got that 10 million dollar deal so I'm taking a lot of him in best ball as well.
- [44:06]
Chad Millman
Adams is old speaking of receivers and.
- [44:09]
Sean Kerner
Puka's injury prone to your point Seth.
- [44:11]
Chad Millman
Ray Vaughan. Speaking of receivers, will Matthew be golden in Green Bay?
- [44:19]
Sean Kerner
I think so. I, I think this golden draft pick for the packers has the potential to kind of not only work for him in particular, I think he could be the packers number one wide receiver this year. I know he's kind of going outside the top 40. Right outside the top 40. A lot of people, you know, not sure exactly what his role is going to be but everything the packers have done over the last year or so in terms of their front office moves at the receiver position and just, you know, in play calling have kind of told us they just didn't like their receiver room last year. And I think they're looking for a new number one type of guy because if you look at last year, they really did not throw the football with Jordan Love. And if you look at Jordan Love's efficiency metrics, Jordan Love was top five almost across the board. So Jordan Love really didn't fall off. It wasn't so much of like, oh, let's hide Jordan Love. I know he had some interception issues at one point, but he was still excellent in all the, you know, important metrics. He just didn't really throw a lot of passes. And you saw Watson, they were trying to increase his snaps. He got hurt again. Now he's probably out for at least half the season. I think he said he wasn't going to come back till like week 12 or something like that. And you look at, you know, Romeo Dobbs still hasn't had 100 yard receiving game in the regular season. You know, that's their guy. That's the guy that was getting the most snaps for them. Jaden Reed, like his agent or somebody had to come out and say he's their number one receiver. This guy got four and a half, 4.4 targets per game last year. That's their supposed number one receiver. Like, I think golden has a massive, massive opportunity right from the jump. Dontavion Wicks runs good routes, comes down to catch the ball. He doesn't do it. And every time guys have been healthy, Wicks plays like 20%, 25% of the snaps. So they're telling us they want, they see him as a number four or five guy. Bo Melton, who had some, some moments, they, they, they're playing him at cornerback. Like they just did not, they were not feeling it. So I think the, you know, with golden in tow, I think they, their volume could increase this year, their pass volume. And I think, you know, with Jordan Love, those are the kind of throws he can make down the field. Really hasn't had a guy quite like that. You know, Watson was kind of a speed guy down the field, a little bit of different player, but they really haven't had a guy like golden, you know, for Jordan Love. So I think it could increase the value of Gold himself. I think he's going to be the number one when it's all said and done. But I also think Jaden Reed could take a step forward in terms of his numbers just because the packers are going to pass more. So even if Reed's not the number one, and he could be, but even like he's also going outside the top 40 now, so I think you have value on both of those guys. Just because Golden's been added to the mix, I think it lets them play Dobbs a little bit less than me, and it lets them play Wicks a little bit less. So they're going to have a very talented receiving core. Jordan Love was, you know, very, very good last year. 8.0 yards per attempt. That was fifth in the league. You know, his QBR 69.3, that was fifth in the league. So you just add some, some volume there. And I think these packers receivers, these top two guys, Reed and Golden, are going to eat regardless. So really like this move for golden, but I think the path is wide open for him to be that number one because, you know, Dobbs really isn't that guy. Wicks, they don't really want to play like that. And Reed, they, they only play him in, in three wide personnel. So I think that will increase this year because I think they throw more, but that they've pretty much capped his snapshot two years Straight and now they, they went out and got, you know, a guy who in the first round. So I, I think that this, this is a significant move. I think, you know, when you look at number one receivers like they have, they've had a, you know, like a 20% of them have ended up finishing as a wide receiver. One that go in the first round. So it depends on the class year, year over year. But I think people are kind of sleeping on this year's class because they got drafted into, you know, these crowded spots in terms of, you know, a booker, Matthew Golden. But with golden especially, he has the quarterback and he has the path to be that number one. And that's all you can ask for when you're drafting a guy as your wide receiver. 4. So I think golden is, is a smash and I think Reed is undervalued as well. And Jordan loves as well.
- [49:03]
Chad Millman
Seems like a golden opportunity to find some upside, doesn't it? Simon?
- [49:11]
Simon Hunter
Sean, we gotta talk about it.
- [49:15]
Chad Millman
No comment.
- [49:16]
Simon Hunter
The Texans. Who the hell is catching the ball for the Texans upcoming season? We know CJ's been putting the ball downfield. He can make nobodies into somebody who is the steel of the draft this year for this Texas receiver crew.
- [49:28]
Chris Raybon
Yeah, so my first four were just big moves. I'm not saying I'm drafting a ton of those storylines. This is a guy I am drafting a ton of. So it's Jaden Higgins going to the Texans in round two. I just love that landing spot. And you know, they already have Nico Collins who is, I consider one of the best receivers in the league. So Higgins ceiling is still, you know, just the number two receiver on this team. But I think, you know, C.J. stroud should bounce back here in year three. And this offense is more than capable of supporting two, you know, high end fancy wide receivers. And I just love Higgins as a prospect. You know, he's a bigger receiver, 6, 4, 2, 15 pounds, really good measurables, really good at catching the ball. He had one of the lowest drop rates in college last year. And ironically like Mike comp for him. I tried to find somebody else because this seems lazy, but it's T. Higgins. I mean, no relation, but they're almost like identical. And my, my comfort, Brian Thomas Jr. Is Randy Moss. I couldn't find anybody else to comp for him. So I'm just sticking with T. Higgins being my comp for Jaden Higgins. So I think, you know, Stroud could have a high quality number two wide receiver and I know they brought in Christian Kirk you know, who could soak up some targets. But we have to remember they did lose Stefan Diggs and you know, Tank Dell had that very unfortunate leg entry at the end of the season last year, so he's probably going to miss the entire season. So there is room for Higgins to be the number two target and you know defenses, they have to pay attention to Nico Collins, double team him at times. So I think Higgins could make him pay. So he's being drafted just outside the top 50 wide receivers right now and that's like the perfect range to take a rookie wide receiver that I think, you know, people are still overlooking. He's a guy that I could see making a couple splash plays in preseason and have his ADP shoot up. So I've been trying to get ahead of that and drafting Higgins, you know, as much as I can these early drafts.
- [51:24]
Chad Millman
All right, let me RECAP the top 10 offseason moves according to fantasy pros top 10 player projection experts Sean Kerner and Chris Raybon. Chris said that his biggest move was head coach Liam Cohen to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Sean's biggest move Travis Hunter to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Chris also likes the combination of Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, Johnny Smith to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Kerner loves Ashton Genty to the Raiders, Chris Omario Hampton and Najee Harris to the Chargers. Kerner, kind of an obvious Captain Obvious Ben Johnson to the Bears. Not hating it. Chris Travion Henderson and Stefan Diggs gets in New England. Although the biggest impact move there is still going to be Mike Vrabel Kerner Devonte Adams to the Rams Chris Matthew golden receiver to the Packers Kerner Jaden Higgins, receiver to the Texans get more of this fabulous content and information to win all of your leagues. Whatever your plan on the Fantasy Flex podcast with Kerner and Raybon. The favorites will return with our next episode Thursday on the Action Network YouTube page. When we talk NFL training camp questions, Download us from Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods. Rate Review Subscribe Leave us 5 stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time. Love you.
- [53:11]
Announcer
Action Network reminds you Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available 247 at 1-800-GAMBLER Join iHeartRadio and Sarah.
- [53:24]
Sarah Spain
Spain in celebrating the one year anniversary of iHeart Women's Sports with powerful interviews and insider analysis. Our shows have come connected fans with the heart of women's Sports. In just one year, the network has launched 15 shows and built a community united by passion. Podcasts that amplify the voices of women in sports. Thank you for supporting iHeart women's sports and our founding sponsors E L F Beauty, Capital One and Novartis. Just open the free iHeart app and search iHeart Women's Sports to Listen now.
- [53:53]
Will Ferrell
My Uncle Chris was a real character, a garbage truck driver from South Carolina who is now buried in Panama City alongside the family founding families of Panama. He also happens to be responsible for the craziest night of my life. Wild stories about adventure, romance, crime, history and war intertwine as I share the tall tales and hard truths that have helped me understand Uncle Chris. Listen now to Uncle Chris on Will Ferrell's Big Money Players Network on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.
- [54:26]
Announcer
Check out behind the Flow, a podcast documentary series following the San Diego Football Club.
- [54:34]
San Diego coming to MLS is going to be a game changer because this region has been hungry for a men's professional soccer team.
- [54:41]
Simon Hunter
We need to embrace this community.
- [54:45]
Announcer
Listen to San Diego FC behind the Flow on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [54:56]
Sarah Spain
This is an iHeart podcast.