THE HERD - Hour 1 - John Harbaugh will be just fine, head coach openings in the NFL

Summary

Podcast Summary: THE HERD (Hour 1) – “John Harbaugh Will Be Just Fine, Head Coach Openings in the NFL”

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Host: Colin Cowherd with Jason McIntyre
Date: January 7, 2026
Episode Focus: John Harbaugh’s departure from Baltimore, Lamar Jackson’s status, NFL head coach openings, Packers challenges, QB draft discourse, and key NFL and NBA storylines.

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Overview

This episode kicks off with the shocking news that John Harbaugh, after 18 years, is out as the Baltimore Ravens’ head coach. Colin unpacks what this means for both Harbaugh and the Ravens—especially in light of Lamar Jackson’s future—before delving into ongoing coaching vacancies, the state of several NFL franchises, discussion about the upcoming draft (especially around Ty Simpson), and speculation about Bill Belichick, the NBA, and college football.

Colin’s signature perspective centers on the complicated marriage between star athletes and their organizations, front-office challenges in smaller markets, coaching fit, and the sometimes-messy world of contracts and free agency.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. John Harbaugh’s Exit – Meaning for Ravens and Harbaugh (00:35–08:00)

• Tenure & Legacy: Harbaugh departs Baltimore after 18 years. Notably, he was 8-4 in the playoffs pre-Lamar Jackson; with Lamar, 3-6.
• Baltimore’s Dilemma: Lamar is not the same QB at 29—less athletic, more injury-prone, and carries a $74 million cap hit next season.
• Colin’s Analysis:
  • Harbaugh probably pushed back on the team’s infatuation with Lamar:

    “I bet you I can see John Harbaugh—apparently it was a very long meeting with Steve Bisciotti—probably said, ‘Everything can't be about Lamar. He's 29. He wasn't the same quarterback. He's missed a season full of games with injuries.’” (04:10)

  • Baltimore is “Lamar’s locker room, not the coach’s,” per Colin and RG3’s earlier remarks.
  • Even with aging QBs and tough cap situations, Baltimore is a well-run franchise, destined to win 10+ games and remain competitive.
• Harbaugh’s Future:

  “CEOs don’t last 18 years at a company... He’ll go somewhere and do just fine. Atlanta would be interesting, maybe Tennessee, maybe the New York Giants.” (07:49)

• Notable Quote:

  “Don’t fall in love with your athletes. Love your kids, love your wife or husband, don’t love your athlete. Fall in like with them. But in Baltimore, Lamar’s got so much juice and so much power.” (06:22)

2. Packers, Matt LaFleur, & Small Market Challenges (08:00–12:03)

• Packers’ Playoff Consistency: Four straight years as the 7-seed, benefitting from playoff expansion.
  • Nick Wright’s critique:

    “Nobody has benefited more from NFL playoff expansion than the Matt LaFleur Green Bay Packers.” (09:15)

• Colin’s Perspective:
  • The Packers face built-in disadvantages: smallest city, no owner, difficulties attracting free agents, and continually the league’s youngest team.
  • Despite this, they've run a top organization for 35 years—elite QB play (Favre, Rodgers, now Love), steady management, and player development.
  • Notable:

    “In North American sports history, there’s an argument Green Bay has been the best run NFL franchise the last 35 years. I didn’t say most productive in terms of trophies, best run...” (11:38)

3. Quarterback Draft Discourse: Ty Simpson & The Draft Board (12:03–16:06, 21:39–25:53)

• Draft Stock Debate: Debate between Colin and Jason McIntyre about Ty Simpson’s value.
  • Colin: Quarterback is one position you can reach for; teams will overdraft Simpson, possibly late first.

    “If there’s one position you could reach on, it’s probably quarterback.”

  • McIntyre: Simpson is more a 2nd or 3rd-round talent; disaster if teams draft him top 10.
• Teams as Destinations: Arizona, the Jets, the Rams as likely candidates to reach.
• What Makes a First-Round QB:

  “The one thing I look for—to be a first-round quarterback, you’ve got to have a trait that I go, wow… There’s nothing with Ty Simpson.” (24:09–24:35)

• Strategy: Teams desperate for a QB will overdraft based on need rather than talent parity.

4. On Head Coach Openings and Bill Belichick’s Viability (25:53–29:17, 41:00–43:01)

• Belichick Not a Hot NFL Candidate: Colin and JMac debate if there’s a fit for Belichick amid seven openings. Colin floats Buffalo as a “revenge” spot if McDermott falters, since Allen takes care of offense and Belichick could reshape defense and culture.

  “That's the one I look at and I think—and by the way, Bill's like, oh, yeah, little payback and Robert Kraft.” (28:12)

• Best Coach Candidates:

  “My take would be Harbaugh 1, Stefanski 2… you get into a group at the third pitch, that's pretty darn solid.” (41:00)

• Harbaugh’s Best Fit: Broken culture teams in need of a grown-up at the helm (e.g., Giants), whereas a place like Baltimore (well-run, needs a play caller) is better for someone like Stefanski.

5. First-Round vs. Non-First-Round QB Playoff Success (17:30–21:39)

• Trend: 12 of 14 playoff QBs were first-round picks—the two exceptions, Purdy and Hurts, are “elevated by other forces.”
• Coaching & Roster Context: Purdy is aided by Shanahan’s system, Hurts by Eagles’ top front office and smart acquisition moves.

  “If you get a Kyle Shanahan, who has the best play sheet in the league, [you can] be elevated significantly.” (18:36) “Hertz has the best GM in the league... The Eagles actually win more the fewer times Jalen Hurts throws.” (19:04)

6. NBA & College Football Quick Hits (29:17–40:58)

• LeBron, Luka, Lakers:

  “LeBron turned back the clock… Here's what he had to say when talking about the Lakers offense: 'It’s up to us to bend our game around him and figure it out.'” (29:39)

• Lakers’ Future: Colin hints at a massive future move rather than a trade-deadline splash:

  “There’s going to be a massive, massive Laker move.” (30:34)

• Indiana Hoosiers’ Football Run: Unprecedented discipline—no fumbles since the first quarter of the season, best red-zone and third-down offense, credit to management.

7. NIL, Transfer Portal, and Need for Guardrails (36:45–39:30)

• NIL Transfer Chaos: Example of Damond Williams Jr. seeking to exit his Washington contract for more money elsewhere—Colin warns against “no parent” chaos in college football.

  “The NCAA has got to step in here. You can't just let guys go willy-nilly. And the players can't win every time.” (38:18)

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Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On the Harbaugh-Lamar dynamic & organizational power:

  “It’s Lamar’s locker room, not the coach’s locker room. I think Baltimore Ravens fans would burn the city to the ground if the Ravens traded Lamar Jackson.” (paraphrasing RG3 via Colin, 05:00)

• On Baltimore’s future post-Harbaugh:

  “Baltimore is going to win a bunch of games, arguably the best run organization in football.” (06:33)

• On drafting QBs:

  “If there’s one position you could reach on, it’s probably quarterback...I think he’s [Ty Simpson] going to end up going in the first round and I think he’s a second or a third round talent.” (12:13)

• On the Packers’ operational limitations:

  “Green Bay is one of those cities... It’s not attractive to most free agents. Aaron Rodgers still is trying to sell his house.” (10:45)

• On coaching and organizational excellence:

  “Don’t chase money in life. Chase really good management. There’s a sea of money if you’re talented and work hard. There’s a finite amount of really good management.” (33:08)

• On NIL chaos:

  “College football used to be the strictest parent. Now there’s no parent. They went from helicopter to home alone.” (38:55)

• On well-coached teams:

  “You can always tell a well-coached team. I remember when the Patriots, Belichick was in his prime with Brady. They didn’t fumble, they didn’t get penalized.” (35:23)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Harbaugh exit & Baltimore’s QB dilemma: 00:35–08:00
• Packers’ playoff ‘success’ & market challenges: 08:00–12:03
• Ty Simpson/draft QB analysis: 12:03–16:06; 21:39–25:53
• First-round QB playoff stat & ‘Bizarro Bowl’: 17:30–21:39
• Bill Belichick NFL coaching fit: 25:53–29:17
• NBA (LeBron/Luka/Lakers future): 29:17–31:47
• College football/Indiana coaching praise: 33:08–36:45
• NIL, transfer portal, and contracts: 36:45–40:58
• Best coaching candidates & fit for Harbaugh: 41:00–43:01

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Takeaways

• Baltimore: The franchise is more loyal to Lamar than Harbaugh at this point—Lamar’s cultural and commercial pull is immense, but his age and cap hit loom.
• Harbaugh’s value: He’ll land well, possibly with an organization that needs a culture reset.
• Packers: Exceptionally run but face substantial market-driven challenges—making their sustained run that much more impressive.
• QB draft market: Teams overdraft out of desperation; first-round QBs overwhelmingly comprise playoff squads, except when uniquely “elevated” by coaching or front office.
• Coaching carousel: Belichick is not an attractive candidate for most openings; Harbaugh/Stefanski are top targets, with team “fit” varying by organizational needs.
• College Football: Management and coaching, not “rigged” refs, matter most for sustained success; NIL chaos needs regulation before instability becomes the new normal.
• NBA: Lakers are setting up for a major move, not just a quick-fix deadline addition.

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Useful for:
Anyone wanting a fast, thorough catch-up on the NFL coaching carousel, the ever-present tension between stars and organizations (with the Ravens as case study), NFL draft intrigue, and broader observations on team building, both in pro and college sports.

Transcript

[Jason McIntyre]

This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.

[Jonas Knox]

This is Jonas Knox from Two Pros and a Cup of Joe. And are you ready to tackle your financial goals but don't know where to start? Webull makes it simple to start investing now, no matter your experience. Powerful tools, real time data, all in one platform built for you. Don't sit on the sidelines. Visit webull.com or download the app and start with as little as $1 today. That's webull.com Webull Financial LLC member SIPC FINRA investing involves risk. For more visit webull.com disclosures thanks for.

[Colin Cowherd]

Listening to the Herd podcast. Be sure to catch us live every weekday on Fox Sports radio and noon to 3 Eastern, 9am to noon Pacific. Find your local station for the [e-mail] or stream us live every day on the iHeartRadio app by searching Fox Sports Radio or FSR. Now let's get this party started. You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Oh, we got a good one today. It is a Wednesday. We are live. We are in Los Angeles. It's the Herd. Wherever you may be, however you may be listening, thanks for making us part of your day. So I got off the air yesterday and one of the most celebrated coaches in the NFL, certainly the most celebrated coaching family in the NFL, John Harbaugh, after 818 years is now out in Baltimore. And just to give you some sense about how long 18 years is, 18 years ago, Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers was beating Vince Young in a playoff game. So that's a long time ago. Listen, Baltimore is complicated. Lamar Jackson is probably in a singular city the most worshiped quarterback in the league. Maybe, maybe not Mahomes in Kansas City, but close. He's 29 and he's clearly this year not the same quarterback. And historically he's gotten tight in the playoffs. Lamar in the playoffs is 3 and 5 with an 84 passer rating. And this year, and those were in the years he was in his athletic prime. This year he did not look like the same. He also carries a massive cap hit next year, 74 million. And in the AFC, quarterbacks like Drake May cap hit less than 10 million. Bo Nicks cap hit less than 5 million. So a lot of your adversaries, the young guys you'll be facing, the Drake Mays, the Bo Knicks, they can stack their rosters and hyper athletic quarterbacks age quickly. Do you know the last year Cam Newton was a Pro bowler? He was 26, 26. Lamar is 29 and this year you watch what I watch. He didn't look the same yet. These old pocket guys, Aaron Rodgers, 42 years old, carrying that offense to the playoffs. Tom Brady, mid-40s, winning a Super Bowl. Matt Stafford, 37 years old, probably going to win the MVP. So that's the downside to being a guy that makes a lot of noise and moves the chains with athletic ability. But Lamar is so beloved in Baltimore. He's going to leave when he wants to leave. And I bet you I can see John Harbaugh. Apparently it was a very long meeting with Steve Boschotti. John Harbaugh probably said, you do realize I was 8 and 4 in the playoffs for the Super Bowl. Pre Lamar. I'm three and six with Lamar. Everything can't be about Lamar. He's 29. He wasn't the same quarterback. He's missed a season full of games with injuries, but yet Baltimore and Steve Basani says he's still a top 10 quarterback. I mean our merchandise, our ticket sales, we win 10 plus games almost every year. So it's a complicated story. But RG3 was on our show earlier this week. He played in that locker room. And it's Lamar's locker room, not the coach's locker room. I think Baltimore Ravens fans would burn the city to the ground if the Ravens traded Lamar Jackson and I mean that wholeheartedly. Lamar Jackson had lost the locker room. This would be a real conversation. But I've got great relationships in that locker room still, still to this day, and they love Lamar and they should. Two things will be true. The Ravens and they'll build around Lamar are well run. They draft and develop and they're going to win 10 plus games going forward. Who knows, wouldn't it be funny if they landed Kevin Stefanski? Cleveland fires him, Baltimore hires him and he owns the Browns for the next eight years. Baltimore is going to win a bunch of games, arguably the best run organization in football. They'll be fine. And John Harbaugh, well, Jim got run out of San Francisco, Andy Reid got run out of Philadelphia, and John Harbaugh, 18 years. CEOs don't last 18 years at a company. Right? Like so he'll go somewhere and do just fine. Atlanta would be interesting, maybe Cam Ward, Tennessee. What about the New York Giants? Jackson Dart. So but John Harbaugh is really, really good. And Lamar Jackson is still really, really good. And I think it came down to several meetings, reportedly long, long meetings. And I think at some point John Harbaugh probably said, you know, I was 8 and 4. Pre Lamar I'm 3 and 6 with him. We got to start having discussions. He's missing games. He's not the same guy. And Lamar's still great. But that city and that locker room and that organization, it's all about Lamar. And at some point, John Harbaugh may have said, how many years are we going to go on this? I mean, you've seen him in the playoffs. I'm projecting here, I'm guessing. But I can understand if there was pushback, where the pushback would come from. And I think that's one of those situations. I always say this like your athletes, don't fall in love with them. Don't worship them. Love your kids, love your wife or husband, don't love your athlete. Fall in like with them. But in Baltimore, I think Lamar's got so much juice and so much power. He's still a terrific player. Terrific player. The kickers, why they're not in the playoffs, it's not Lamar Jackson, but these were long meetings. Probably didn't start with the idea that Harbaugh wouldn't work. But I think Harbaugh probably pushed back on some things and said, you know, I want a lot of games pre Lamar, and, you know, Ravens listen to their players. It's Lamar's locker room. Lamar is going to win a bunch of games. Ravens are still going to be really, really good, and Harbaugh is going to be just fine. So I do want to talk about the packers and the Bears. So all this game is about, I can't wait for this. It's all about the Bears. It's all about Ben Johnson, it's all about Caleb Williams. It's all about Chicago finally finding the quarterback. They're at home. I mean, literally, when the packers are in a playoff game, usually they're the one that's talked about. They're like. I mean, they're like the opening act, like, like the. They're the appetizer. The entree is the Chicago Bears, and we know Green Bay's well run. But Nick Wright was on the show yesterday and made an interesting point about the packers head coach, Matt LaFleur. For a guy who is just universally respected as this really good coach, it is interesting to me that his final year with Rogers, they were playing in week 18, that if they won, they would be the 7 seed. Then his first year with love, they were the seven seed. And then last year, his second year with love, they were the seven seed. And this year, the packers find themselves as the 7 seed. Nobody has benefited more from NFL playoff expansion than the Matt LaFleur Green Bay Packers. So four years in a row, actually, they, they, they make, they make the playoffs. If, if the playoff expansion didn't happen, they, they would not make the playoffs. And I think I've always looked at Green Bay differently. They have challenges. Like the Milwaukee brewers doing baseball now competing against the Dodgers or Wisconsin football has competing against Ohio State and Michigan. They don't get the same players. I think Green Bay's got challenges. By the way, third straight year, Green Bay was the youngest team in the league. Why? It's not a place free agents clamor for. They often have to make a big trade and overpay. They overpaid for an offensive lineman this year. It's the smallest city. They don't have an owner. Aaron Rodgers is still trying to sell his house in Green Bay. Matt Stafford could sell his place on the strand in 15 minutes. So green Bay is one of those cities that I've always looked at them. I always said if Wisconsin gets to a Rose bowl, that's Ohio State winning the national championship. If Milwaukee gets to a, you know, if they beat the Dodgers in the postseason, that is like a World Series. They're not going to beat another team and another team. And that's. I look at Green Bay, I think they've been remarkably successful considering they have to largely. I read something this morning that they had signed for the. Was it the third fewest year? Yeah. Three straight seasons, the fewest free agent signings. Green Bay packers, third straight year, youngest team. I mean, when they made the Micah deal, what was our reaction to that? Well, wait, what? Packers don't do that. That's what Philadelphia does. That's what the Rams do. You know, you look around, you could see the. A host of teams doing the Micah Parsons deal. We were all shocked that Green Bay did it. So I just think differently about Green Bay, Farvin Rogers and Jordan Love. It's been like 35 some years, it feels like, of having elite quarterbacks and they got two trophies. And I, I think like, like if the brewers won a World Series, if I told you they're going to win a World Series, you would be kind of surprised. And the reason you would be surprised is, well, they just don't have the money. I mean, the Cubs come out and it's like the brewers had these, you know, a great manager and then. And all of a sudden he's in Chicago right down the road. It's kind of what they deal with. So I think LaFleur is a really Good coach. But I do think there are challenges for Green Bay. That's why I think in North American sports history there's an argument Green Bay has been the best run NFL franchise the last 35 years. I didn't say most production in terms of trophies, best run. And they've done it without an owner. It's not attractive to most free agents. Aaron Rodgers still is trying to sell his house. Their game day revenue is good. But is it Philadelphia? Is it the Rams at SoFi? Is it the New York Giants, the 49ers, even the Bears? So I think, I think LaFleur's great but I kind of bake in the fact there are some obstacles. It's, it's not as easy as everybody thinks. I mean just think of Green Bay. Go back to the, the dry years in Green Bay. If you throw Bart Starr in and then Farve and then Aaron Rodgers and then Jordan Love. Yeah. Go into that space. When they didn't hit on quarterbacks, I mean they were, I can, I remember those years. They weren't, they weren't getting on television. Right. So I think the floor is really, really good. But you, I always kind of bake in some disadvantages for the Packers. And there you go. Third straight year fewest free agent signings. Staff said this morning J. Mac, we have some things happening in this, in this world of college football. So we have Todd McShan one hour. His mock draft is fascinating. J. Mack will tell you about this around the corner. So Ty Simpson.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

Has said I'm going to go to the NFL and what's going to be fascinating is we talked about this yesterday. So Mendoza is going one. If Dante Moore doesn't come out then Ty Simpson is viewed as the second best quarterback. And you and I were arguing about this before the show. I said well like seven teams need a quarterback. If there's one position you could reach on, it's probably quarterback. I, I think he's going to end up going in the first round and I think he's a second or a.

[Jason McIntyre]

Third round talent that, that might be generous. We'll see. I would hate the jets to take him at 2. There's no. If you go top 10, you're a franchise savior ever. There's a ton of pressure.

[Colin Cowherd]

I'll give you an example.

[Jason McIntyre]

Seen this. You're not going to deliver.

[Colin Cowherd]

I'll give you an example. Cincinnati Bengals burls had three major surgeries.

[Jason McIntyre]

They Simpson first round.

[Colin Cowherd]

Well, my take is Burrows hurt again. You're gonna go back to the backup.

[Jason McIntyre]

Well but with a healthy Burrow, they're very, very good in a playoff team. So you.

[Colin Cowherd]

They couldn't beat Cleveland at the end of the season.

[Jason McIntyre]

Let's not, let's week 18 shenanigans. I mean, I'm just saying if they, they could draft a defensive player, offensive lineman, there's a lot of stuff they could do. Ty Simpson doesn't help you. That basically says to Joe Burrow, like that's what the stuff that the packers were doing to Aaron Rodgers.

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah, it worked out okay. Packers got another quarterback.

[Jason McIntyre]

I just heard you guys hammer in the floor.

[Colin Cowherd]

No, no, no, no, you didn't listen.

[Jason McIntyre]

Nick Wright was hammering.

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah. I said within context, I think LaFleur is excellent. But LaFleur has to deal with obstacles that McVeigh doesn't, Shanahan doesn't even Ben Johnson doesn't. Nick Sirianni doesn't. So I, I mean my Ty Simpson, somebody's going to overdraft him.

[Jason McIntyre]

Should we, should we make it interesting? I say no way he goes top 10. No way, no shot. I don't care what he does at the combine. You know, crushes, interviews. No way. You think he's going top 10?

[Colin Cowherd]

I'm, I now Todd McShay's on do. I think he's a top 10? Remember when the Steelers, the Steelers went and got Kenny Pickett?

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

How'd that work out for them? No, no, no. I talked to a Super bowl winning GM and he, and before the draft and he said Kenny Pickett's a mid third round pick. Pittsburgh needed a quarterback. By the way, you don't think Pittsburgh now Drafting in Low First Round 42 year old Aaron Rodgers.

[Jason McIntyre]

That, that makes some sense.

[Colin Cowherd]

If they have the last pick in the first round because they have the early pick, they'll go get a, a tackle. Rams have the last pick in the first round. They also have a second, a third, two fifths, a six, two, seven. You don't think the Rams would go. Listen, we, we got our tackle and.

[Jason McIntyre]

They have the Falcons pick as well. So that I'm okay with the Rams.

[Colin Cowherd]

I could, I could see Pittsburgh. I could see the Rams. I could. Cincinnati, no. Ravens won't. It's Lamar's town. I could also. Ty Simpson is the opposite of Lamar. He's strictly popular.

[Jason McIntyre]

Was the opposite of Flacco, by the way. Lamar went like the end of the first round.

[Colin Cowherd]

That's what we're talking about. He's like a two time was a unique transformational athlete. He, he did things that we'd never Seen Ty Simpson's a pocket quarterback. So I, I, I'm looking at all these teams. Okay, Mendoza goes to the Raiders. If Ty Simpson is the second highest graded quarterback, my guess is what a lot of these teams would do is trade down to the 12, 13, 14, get another pick and then reach for him. Yeah.

[Jason McIntyre]

So Cardinals could draft a quarterback, but probably unlikely, right? We'll see what the new the new coaches.

[Colin Cowherd]

Okay, you're Arizona at three and you can trade down to eight and get a second round pick.

[Jason McIntyre]

I would rather take an offensive lineman or a defensive lineman and then get Malik Willis.

[Colin Cowherd]

Okay, then you're eight in Arizona. You trade down again, do 11. You could probably still get Ty Simpson. Potentially. That's what I would do if I was all these Jets, Cardinals, Titans, Browns, Commanders. I Commanders have a quarterback.

[Jason McIntyre]

The Titans have Cam Ward.

[Colin Cowherd]

Saints think they have one too. So they won't take a quarterback.

[Jason McIntyre]

They've got their guy, Tyler Shuck.

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah, well, we'll see.

[Jason McIntyre]

Franchise.

[Colin Cowherd]

Franchise. I mean listen he I will say the last six weeks.

[Jason McIntyre]

Six weeks. Hey, lock it up. Six weeks. That's your franchise quarterback, baby.

[Colin Cowherd]

Be sure to catch live editions of the Herd weekdays at noon Eastern, 9am Pacific on Fox Sports Radio FS1 and the iHeartRadio app. Hey, it's Rob Parker and Kelvin Washington from the Odd Couple on Fox Sports Radio. And in addition to hearing us live weeknights from 7 to 10pm Eastern on Fox Sports Radio, we are excited to announce brand new YouTube channel for the show. That's right, you can now watch the Odd couple live on YouTube every day. All you got to do search Odd Couple FSR on YouTube again. YouTube. Just search Odd Couple FSR. Check us out on YouTube and subscribe.

[Jonas Knox]

This is Jonas Knox from Two Pros and a Cup of Joe. And are you ready to tackle your financial goals? Kick off your journey with WE Bull who makes it simple to start investing. Powerful tools, next level data and an easy to use platform for stocks, ETFs, prediction markets and more. Whether you're on the go or trading overnight, we built for you and your schedule. Don't sit on the sidelines, visit we bull.com or download the app and take control of your financial future today. Start with just $1. That's webull.com Webull Financial LLC member SIPC FINRA investing involves risk. For more information visit weble.com disclosures.

[Colin Cowherd]

You know I hear this from time to time. Nobody knows how to draft a quarterback in the NFL. It's all so random. 12 of the 14 playoff quarterbacks were drafted in the first round. There's two exceptions. Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts, and they will meet this weekend in the Bizarro Bowl. Both have been massively elevated. This is how they've made the playoffs, not because they're elite talents. They've been elevated by other forces. Take Brock Purdy. He lands Kyle Shanahan, who made Matt Schaub a Pro Bowler, Matt Ryan the MVP and got Jimmy Garoppolo to the Super Bowl. Mac Jones career was over. He started this year for San Francisco. He had a 97 passer rating, completed 70% of his throws, 5 and 3. He's not doing that anywhere else in the league, including with McVeigh. Kyle Shanahan is the quarterback whisperer. Brock Purdy had 33 picks in college. That's why he dipped. He was totally reckless. And yet today he has the highest passer rating in NFL history. Higher than Tom Brady. It's Shanahan. Doesn't mean he doesn't have talent. But it's not just the quarterback in this league. You can, if you get a Kyle Shanahan, who has the best play sheet in the league, be elevated significantly. Take Jalen Hurts. He got benched in college. Greg Cosell, who looks at film on the show with Tom Brady tomorrow, acknowledges he can't see over the middle of the field all the time. He's 5 10ish. The Eagles actually win more the fewer times Jalen Hurts throws. But he's got the best GM in the league. So Brock Purdy's got the best choreographed offense in the league to elevate him. Doesn't mean he doesn't have talent. And Hertz has the best trade manipulator and and draft picker arguably in the NFL. But let's not kid ourselves. 12 of the 14 teams in the league have a first round quarterback. So there are some rare examples. And Purdy and Jalen Hurts and the Bizarro bowl on Fox are examples that if you're good, not special historically, you get a Shanahan, you get a Howie Roseman. Yeah, you can win a lot of games. I can't wait for it. I think it's going to be spectacular. There's an AFC executive said this week to Mike Sando, think San Francisco is going to win because they have less dysfunction. They do have more injuries, less dysfunction. And here's Nick Ceriani on the matchup. The amount of big games we play on a yearly basis in our regular seasons, you know, are huge. Jalen does a great job of, you know, continuing to raise his level of play. And so yeah, he has a ton of experience and the quarterback we're playing has a lot of experience too in the playoffs. A lot of respect to them. I think this is a really hard game to figure out. My rule is always if you're favored by four to five, just take the favored team. Vegas would rather put you at three or seven. So, so probably Philadelphia is probably the bet, but San Francisco can be very good, very good early. That's really important. Buffalo falls behind a lot. I don't like going on the road to Jacksonville trailing, getting the crowd ramped up. San Francisco is the opposite. If you would you be shocked if San Francisco came out and took a 10 nothing lead 8 minutes into the game? I would not. So it's a fascinating game where if anybody can go to Philadelphia and win as a 4 to 5 point underdog, San Francisco is that team looks like Trent Williams, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Christian McCaffrey, Jennings are all going to play. Fascinating matchup. J. Mac with the news.

[Jason McIntyre]

All right, let's start with this Ty Simpson news. He's leaving Alabama after one year as a starter. That should be a red flag. Listen, he is a very talented college quarterback, moves exceptionally well in the pocket, good numbers, 3,500 yards, 28 touchdowns. Where he goes in the NFL draft is fascinating and I'm with you. If he goes, you know, to a McVeigh, a team where the front office is stable, you don't have to worry.

[Colin Cowherd]

About it, doesn't play for you, it's fine.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah, they can whiff memorably. Shanahan whiffed on Trey Lance. Shanahan and lynch are fine. They have a great culture. They know how to team build. I'm just telling you, any of these Jets, Cardinals, they go what ty Simpson top 10, it's going to be a disaster.

[Colin Cowherd]

But again, I do think there's a play here and it's a risk. But if I was Arizona and said listen, he's not the number three player and Arizona's most, you know this Arizona offensively has got dudes. It's the defense and you're Arizona and you're like we're going to go to from three to eight and get a third and a fourth. Then at eight I'm like, okay, now at least I'm reaching. But if he grades out to be the 19th or the 20th best player, Arizona needs both a quarterback and players. I think the same thing for the Jets. You can't pick him at Two. Yeah.

[Jason McIntyre]

So let's drill down on Arizona. So the coach got fired, right? The GM is still there. The media was grilling him. I don't know if you saw this. Hey, you've never drafted an All Pro. Well, how do you still have your job basically to the gm. The new coach is going to come and meet with the GM and he's gonna be like, what's your plan at quarterback? And what if he says, I love ty Simpson at 3? That's a red flag. John Harbaugh's not going there.

[Colin Cowherd]

Like I, well, Harbaugh's too good of a candidate to consider Arizona. Yeah.

[Jason McIntyre]

I think the New York Giants is a slam dunk.

[Colin Cowherd]

Yeah, I mean, they're just, the Harbaughs are not going to consider seven. They're not going to Cleveland.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah, but even like if you're Kevin Stefanski, are you, are you like, I, I agree with you. The running backs are good in Arizona. They were injured. Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson, McBride.

[Colin Cowherd]

There's a reason when Steve Kyne was the GM, he took a swing on Bruce Arians and they had great success. In fact, 18 years ago today we talked about Harbaugh's 18. 18 years ago today, wasn't Arizona and Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl? Might be. Right. Yeah. So, so, you know, so. But the point being is Arizona is one of those places and I think the jets have become this, that elite candidates are not going to consider it.

[Jason McIntyre]

100% agree. So people are saying, well, the Saints got Tyler Schuck. They like him. He's a second round pick. You want to tell me Ty Simpson is the second round pick?

[Colin Cowherd]

Great, I love that.

[Jason McIntyre]

But again, I'm with you. I don't think you can entertain him going that high. What is he, six? One and a half.

[Colin Cowherd]

I listen, I 15. I've been consistent on this. You and I talk about quarterbacks all the time. The one thing I look for to be a first round quarterback, you've got to have a trait that I go, wow. So you and I mostly agree on quarterbacks. We disagreed on Kyler Murray. And my take was I, he was a more elusive Russell Wilson. So my take was, okay, he's got a trade now. I didn't like the studying thing, the video game thing, the size, but he threw the prettiest ball. So I, I, I was always higher on Kyler Murray. You've got to give me. And this is why I criticized Kenny Pickett. There's got to be something as a first round quarterback. I go, wow. I mean, you look At Mendoza, his accuracy, his size. Bang, bang, aa. So you. There's nothing with Ty Simpson. His arm is okay. It's fine. It's NFL arm. His accuracy's good. It's not Mendoza good. His size, average. Athletic ability average. There's no first round trait to me.

[Jason McIntyre]

So Jordan Love fell to what, late teens.

[Colin Cowherd]

Love has NFL size six' four.

[Jason McIntyre]

And he's a big arm.

[Colin Cowherd]

Big arm. And he's also a super athlete. So Jordan Love checked three trait boxes.

[Jason McIntyre]

But like Ty Simpson in that range, I'm okay with. I just, again, I'm way out on him. Top eight. You're gonna lose your job.

[Colin Cowherd]

I'm gonna agree on this. He will be overdrafted.

[Jason McIntyre]

I don't know. I. I don't think he's going top 10.

[Colin Cowherd]

Well, no, no, no, no. I. I think that's a reasonable take, but I think you get to late. First eight teams need a quarterback, and.

[Jason McIntyre]

Then you lock him up for the five years because if you get him.

[Colin Cowherd]

I am convinced the Rams, if they had the last pick in the first round, would be okay. We got our left tackle. We'll get our corner. We need in the second, we'll get a receiver in the third. Devonte is getting older. Like. Like I can see a team saying we're going to take him.

[Jason McIntyre]

You don't know. Stafford could win the super bowl and walk away. Right. Be done. Yeah. So that I. I don't mind that. All right, let's move on. Interesting here, Colin. Bill Belichick obviously struggled in North Carolina in his initial year, but guess what? There are seven NFL job openings, and as we've talked about, not a lot of banger candidates. So obviously Belichick's name is going to come up. He was asked about it on a podcast.

[Colin Cowherd]

Nothing's changed. Yeah, I'm where I was a month ago. I'm here in North Carolina. Really appreciate the. The love and support that we've gotten from the community down here, from the school, from Chancellor Roberts, the ADs, Bubba Cunningham, Steve Newmark working with Mike Lombardi and our staff here. We're building a good program. And, you know, I'm excited about the direction we're headed in. I actually, I think that's kind of cool. I like the fact that he's like. Because he's, you know, Pete Carroll being older, being hired and bombing out, that doesn't help him. People look at that and you know how that works. When McVay got hired and won, everybody wanted the next McVeigh. When Pete gets hired older and bombs People go, well, old guy can't. Can't do the old guy. So I, and I like the fact I'm. Last year it was very apparent they didn't have any players. Now it's a second year. The nil money's pretty good. They did get better at some point during the year. They looked like they were kind of cleaning some stuff up. But I don't think he's a candidate.

[Jason McIntyre]

Let me ask you, is there a team of those seven openings where the fit could work with Belichick? We'll go through them Browns. I don't think that's happening again. Right. He was in Cleveland 30 odd years. It's not, he's not going to Cardinals. Is there any world where Pete Belichick.

[Colin Cowherd]

I will tell you the one job that makes sense. You're gonna laugh.

[Jason McIntyre]

Not the New York Giants.

[Colin Cowherd]

No. Watkins, what's the one job where he doesn't have to really worry about the offense because he has a superstar quarterback?

[Jason McIntyre]

Oh, Baltimore Ravens.

[Colin Cowherd]

New England being the primary rival.

[Jason McIntyre]

Oh, the Buffalo Bills.

[Colin Cowherd]

Josh Allen takes care of the offense. Bill, build the culture and fix the defense. Because Bill was actually not terrible at.

[Jason McIntyre]

Drafting defense and he gets to go get revenge.

[Colin Cowherd]

He can't draft skill players to save his life. So you can go buy a receiver. They got a back of left tackle. Josh Allen, go fix the defense, build the culture. That's the one I look at. And I think, and by the way, Bill's like, oh, yeah, little payback and Robert Kraft.

[Jason McIntyre]

I don't hate that he says what he has to say.

[Colin Cowherd]

I don't want Bill going anywhere that doesn't have a quarterback. I think that he has to rebuild the offense. There's no proof that he. That's not his space.

[Jason McIntyre]

I think after that Bills game, things are going to ramp up. Bills win, McDermott very likely safe and you know, we can move on. But if they happen to lose to the Jags, you, you understand Gamble, Belichick and Buffalo.

[Colin Cowherd]

Can you explain Jacksonville being a home dog and they were, they were the better team all year.

[Jason McIntyre]

That a couple of these lines don't make sense.

[Colin Cowherd]

That does not make. I, I don't the lot. I would have guessed the line. Jacksonville minus four, three and a half.

[Jason McIntyre]

I think it's respect for Josh Allen.

[Colin Cowherd]

That's a. It has to be. I don't get that line at all.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah. All right, final story. Let's go to the NBA where LeBron and Luka both dropped 30 on the Pelicans. Hey, look at Luka going right at Zion. Now you see me, now you don't splash. Oh, this was a great game. LeBron turned back the clock. 30, I believe he had 38 and 8. Excellent game. Here's what he had to say when talking about the Lakers offense. Listen closely folks.

[Colin Cowherd]

It's not an issue for me to be able to do things that I don't know. I just don't think people watch basketball. Luca don't need to be in this game. Luka is 20. What? How old is L27. 20. He's our 27 year old franchise. For this ball, he'll need to bend his game. It's up to us to bend our game around him and figure it out. What do you make of that?

[Jason McIntyre]

Well, I don't know if, if he's echoing what J.J. redick's telling the team or if this is counter to Reddick. I, I like what I'm hearing from LeBron. It was a good win last night. They were down in the third quarter. Well, why are you smirking, huh? They beat their pelicans and you want to laugh and just brush it off.

[Colin Cowherd]

No, I'm not laughing. I'm. I think these franchise. This is a. I think they're going for the big splash in the off season. I think this is what the Lakers are good offense we'll get.

[Jason McIntyre]

You're going to have to, you know, narrow that down. Big splash is that.

[Colin Cowherd]

I will say the Lakers are going to make a massive postseason move. A earth shattering Dodgers level move. What did the Dodgers do? Oh, Tawny, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts Dodgers swung the great Asian stars. Dodgers have gone big and, and then they've let like good players like Trey Turner, good player, Sager, good player. They go great. There's going to be a big. We know what the Dodgers owners do. They let Manny Machado walk. They let Cody Bellinger walk. They let Trey Turner walk. They go find the best blank. There's going to be a massive, massive Laker move.

[Jason McIntyre]

You didn't, you didn't sell your property out here in la, did you? Got to come back if the Lakers get you.

[Colin Cowherd]

Honest, there are a lot of people. This is just a. Let it play out. Let's just, you know, we'll get to the playoffs with the offense. It'll be a fun Luka year. Don't expect anything big at the trade deadline. I'll just say that. Don't expect anything at the trade deadline. They're going to play this out.

[Jason McIntyre]

Lakers, spurs tonight, Wemby versus Luka. Two of the best players in the league. LeBron, TBD. Because he doesn't know if he could do back to backs at 41 years old.

[Colin Cowherd]

There's your future.

[Jason McIntyre]

He's not the future, he's the present. Live in the present, man.

[Colin Cowherd]

J Mac with the news. Well, that's the news and thanks for stopping by the Herd lie news. We got good stuff. College football playoff starts tomorrow. I'm so jacked up for it. I mean we went through a 10 year stretch. It was like Georgia, Bama, Clemson, Indiana, Miami, Ole Miss, Oregon. Do you know the last? So Indiana is 14 and 0. Do you know the last team to go 16 and oh in college football? Yale. 1894 Yale. So you folks, we're looking at history with Indiana. It's the Herd. Be sure to catch live editions of the Herd. Weekdays at noon Eastern, 9am Pacific.

[Jason McIntyre]

Tonight, a college hoops dope double header tips off at 7 Eastern with a classic Big east rivalry as Xavier takes on Marquette. Then top ranked Arizona looks to fend off K State. All right here on FS1.

[Colin Cowherd]

One of my mantras, I believe and I tell anybody who will listen is that don't chase money in life. Chase really good management. There's a sea of money if you're talented and work hard. There's a finite amount of really good management. And I feel the same way about coaching when I see all these people out there. Oh, it's rigged. The refs. Your coaches aren't good enough. Let me give you an example. The Indiana Hoosiers fumbled on the 18th play of this season. The 18th play, game one. They have not fumbled since. On special teams, they lead the entire college football in fewest fumbles, fewest turnovers, fewest drop passes, second fewest penalty yards. They have not had an errant snap all season. The last two years they've had the best red zone offense and the best third down offense efficiency. It's not the refs. Nobody's conspired to eliminate your team from the playoffs. In college or pro, your team isn't well coached. By the way. Two most penalized NFL teams, Titans and the Dallas Cowboys. You really think the league wants the Cowboys to be rudderless? Do you really think the NFL says, okay, here's the three teams that are going to disappoint every year. New York Giants, New York jets and the Cowboys. But we want to make sure Green Bay is really good. Green Bay is always really good. Buffalo is excellent. Kurt Signetti's team is unbelievable. They don't get penalized, they don't fumble. They don't drop passes, no errant snaps, one fumble all year. It is an unbelievable team. It is the best tackling team I've seen since Saban's Alabama Crimson Tide. And if they beat in a row Ohio State they did in the big den championship, Bama in the Rose bowl. They did. And Oregon in the semis. It is an all time team. Mark Cuban this week wrote a massive check. Mark Cuban did not write the biggest check last year in the portal. Mark Cuban off the success wrote a check this week. Big, big check. They're going nowhere and they haven't done it with five star recruits. He has turned blue collar kids into blue chip players. And here is Signetti on the matchup against Oregon. That's why it's important to have a blueprint and a plan. You know this business is all about development, recruiting and retention. Gotta have high standards, expectations, accountability throughout your entire organization. Gotta have the right people on your staff in the locker room. When guys prepare correctly, that's their best chance to be successful. And when they become successful, they develop more confidence and belief and it becomes sort of a snowball effect. Yeah, it is, it's just really remarkable. It, it's, you can always tell a well coached team. I remember when the Patriots, Belichick was in his prime with Brady. They didn't fumble, they didn't get penalized. And everybody's like, oh, that's rigged. You want the, the most boring coach in NFL history to really run the league who hates the media and didn't like Goodell. That's who the league wanted to win. This team is so well coached, it jumps through the tv. They don't drop passes, they don't fumble, they don't get penalized, they don't have errant snaps. Coaching affects everything. And when you see bad coaching, you know where it starts. Your team is loose. The Cowboys have been loose since like Parcells and Jimmy Johnson left. Didn't it feel like the Cowboys are always one of the most penalized teams in the league? Coaches affect that. That's not the refs, that's your coach. I saw this story. This was weird. You know, I'm pro nil and pro transfer portal, but I, I think my kids should have cake, just not for breakfast. There's, there's guidelines on everything. So Damon Williams Jr. Good quarterback, University of Washington, signed with the team. I'm going to stay at Washington, sign the contract and then said, nah, I want to enter the portal. You got to have rules with this stuff. Pro football. You can't Sign contracts and say, well, the guy over on the other team signed a bigger contract. I'm going to put myself in free agency. You've got to have rules. Damond Williams signed a contract. And for the record, you know why he wants out? Because Texas Tech went and paid their quarterback $5 million. He looked at it and thought about, what am I making two. I want to go back into the portal. Dude, you signed a contract. I, I, I, I. You know, it's. You can't go. The end. College football used to be the strictest parent. Now there's no parent. They went from helicopter to home alone. There's no parents. The NCAA has got to step in here. You can't just let guys go willy nilly. And the players can't win every time. In the NFL, sometimes the players win, but not all the time. Sometimes Time right now in the NFL, Jordan Love makes more than Josh Allen timing. Trevor Lawrence makes more than Josh Allen timing. You know, I mean, Tom Brady was rarely the highest paid quarterback in the league. Whoever signs the new contract for about six months is the highest paid quarterback. Then they're not for four years. So I don't think it's a coincidence that Texas Tech, who's got a lot of money, went and bought a quarterback from Cincinnati. And then this young guy at Washington says, I'll be here. Sorry, pal. Players can't win all the time. And I am completely pro nil. But there's got to be some guardrails on this stuff. And whenever I hear, well, coaches leave all the time, they don't sign contracts. And the next day say, well, I saw what the guy signed at Michigan. I want a new contract. They don't do that. But the NCAA is so toothless and weak and lacks the ability. I mean, they couldn't figure out the nil was coming five years when everybody was talking about the nil was coming. So at some point, you gotta, at some point have rules. In college football, we have rules in pro football with free agency and moving, gotta have something. Contracts have to mean something. I mean, I'm not saying contracts don't. You know, some contracts are, you know, written and, you know, eventually they'll get rewritten. We see this all the time. Lamar Jackson's cap hit for the Ravens next year, 74 million. They're going to tear it up and redo it and do more guaranteed money and lower it in the high 40s, but that's mutually agreed upon. Well, Washington's like, timeout. We're not letting you go. You can't just go because you want to go. There's contracts. Okay, J. Mac. So the, the, the other story, the big story yesterday and today is John Harbaugh is now on the market. So for those interested, John Harbaugh's in the market at the top of next hour. We'll give you. So now there are seven teams looking for a coach. We went from a very bad market. Like, there's no coat. We were saying this this week, like, who do you hire Now I've got John Harbaugh and now I've got Kevin Stefanski. Now, let's say Jeff Halfley becomes your third best candidate. Well, that's a pretty good candidate as a third or fourth best. Like it. Like right now, Jeff Halfley is your fastball, maybe not. Jeff Halfley is your fourth pitch. Okay, that's a pretty good candidate. Half.

[Jason McIntyre]

You have him ahead of guys like Minter Kingsbury.

[Colin Cowherd]

No, no, I'm just saying my take would be Harbaugh1, Stefanski.

[Jason McIntyre]

I think that's very clear.

[Colin Cowherd]

And then I think you get into the, you know, Mike McCarthy wins 12 games a year. Like how many times I think Jesse mentor, but he's never been a head coach. I think you get into a group at the third pitch, that's pretty darn solid.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah, the Harbaugh one's interesting because he kind of can fit anywhere, but I think he'd only take a team that's kind of close. Right.

[Colin Cowherd]

Wouldn't I argue this Harbaugh's best fit is in some place with a broken culture because he's not going to be a play caller. Like for instance, Stefanski as a play caller could go to Baltimore with Lamar. They don't need a culture guy. The culture's great. Baltimore's culture is unbelievable. But they need somebody to get Lamar happy and. Right.

[Jason McIntyre]

But remember we just talked about it. The teams that pay their quarterback the most, all of a sudden they're not making the playoffs because you can't build around them. So does Stefanski look at the Lamar situation. Be like, you guys got to clean up these. Oh, no, I think we need offensive line.

[Colin Cowherd]

I think Baltimore's like the packers when they have an opening. Take it. It's so well run. You take it.

[Jason McIntyre]

So you would take. So you have the. That job is the best one by far.

[Colin Cowherd]

Baltimore. Oh, I mean top three owner, top five, top eight quarterback. We don't know quite. Lamar had a weird year. Lamar's top seven, eight quarterback, we don't know exactly. He's 29. He was banged out. He's missed 17 starts. Like, we don't know exactly, but he's still very good. I think Baltimore's the job. Then you and I can argue over the second job. I think both of us like the personnel in Atlanta. Offensively, in a weak division, I'm starting.

[Jason McIntyre]

To warm up to the New York Giants. There's some pieces in place there. They could be. They could have the second most talent in the division.

[Colin Cowherd]

But. But Baltimore doesn't need a culture setter. Okay. That's what the Chargers needed with Harbaugh.

[Jason McIntyre]

Yeah.

[Colin Cowherd]

So. So Stefanski can. He can just get on the headset and get Lamar happy. The Giants need a culture guy. That, to me, is Harbaugh. Perfect.

[Jason McIntyre]

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