Podcast Summary: THE HERD (Hour 1) – “John Harbaugh Will Be Just Fine, Head Coach Openings in the NFL”

Podcast: The Herd with Colin Cowherd
Host: Colin Cowherd with Jason McIntyre
Date: January 7, 2026
Episode Focus: John Harbaugh’s departure from Baltimore, Lamar Jackson’s status, NFL head coach openings, Packers challenges, QB draft discourse, and key NFL and NBA storylines.

Overview

This episode kicks off with the shocking news that John Harbaugh, after 18 years, is out as the Baltimore Ravens’ head coach. Colin unpacks what this means for both Harbaugh and the Ravens—especially in light of Lamar Jackson’s future—before delving into ongoing coaching vacancies, the state of several NFL franchises, discussion about the upcoming draft (especially around Ty Simpson), and speculation about Bill Belichick, the NBA, and college football.

Colin’s signature perspective centers on the complicated marriage between star athletes and their organizations, front-office challenges in smaller markets, coaching fit, and the sometimes-messy world of contracts and free agency.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. John Harbaugh’s Exit – Meaning for Ravens and Harbaugh (00:35–08:00)

• Tenure & Legacy: Harbaugh departs Baltimore after 18 years. Notably, he was 8-4 in the playoffs pre-Lamar Jackson; with Lamar, 3-6.
• Baltimore’s Dilemma: Lamar is not the same QB at 29—less athletic, more injury-prone, and carries a $74 million cap hit next season.
• Colin’s Analysis:
  • Harbaugh probably pushed back on the team’s infatuation with Lamar:

    “I bet you I can see John Harbaugh—apparently it was a very long meeting with Steve Bisciotti—probably said, ‘Everything can't be about Lamar. He's 29. He wasn't the same quarterback. He's missed a season full of games with injuries.’” (04:10)

  • Baltimore is “Lamar’s locker room, not the coach’s,” per Colin and RG3’s earlier remarks.
  • Even with aging QBs and tough cap situations, Baltimore is a well-run franchise, destined to win 10+ games and remain competitive.
• Harbaugh’s Future:

  “CEOs don’t last 18 years at a company... He’ll go somewhere and do just fine. Atlanta would be interesting, maybe Tennessee, maybe the New York Giants.” (07:49)

• Notable Quote:

  “Don’t fall in love with your athletes. Love your kids, love your wife or husband, don’t love your athlete. Fall in like with them. But in Baltimore, Lamar’s got so much juice and so much power.” (06:22)

2. Packers, Matt LaFleur, & Small Market Challenges (08:00–12:03)

• Packers’ Playoff Consistency: Four straight years as the 7-seed, benefitting from playoff expansion.
  • Nick Wright’s critique:

    “Nobody has benefited more from NFL playoff expansion than the Matt LaFleur Green Bay Packers.” (09:15)

• Colin’s Perspective:
  • The Packers face built-in disadvantages: smallest city, no owner, difficulties attracting free agents, and continually the league’s youngest team.
  • Despite this, they've run a top organization for 35 years—elite QB play (Favre, Rodgers, now Love), steady management, and player development.
  • Notable:

    “In North American sports history, there’s an argument Green Bay has been the best run NFL franchise the last 35 years. I didn’t say most productive in terms of trophies, best run...” (11:38)

3. Quarterback Draft Discourse: Ty Simpson & The Draft Board (12:03–16:06, 21:39–25:53)

• Draft Stock Debate: Debate between Colin and Jason McIntyre about Ty Simpson’s value.
  • Colin: Quarterback is one position you can reach for; teams will overdraft Simpson, possibly late first.

    “If there’s one position you could reach on, it’s probably quarterback.”

  • McIntyre: Simpson is more a 2nd or 3rd-round talent; disaster if teams draft him top 10.
• Teams as Destinations: Arizona, the Jets, the Rams as likely candidates to reach.
• What Makes a First-Round QB:

  “The one thing I look for—to be a first-round quarterback, you’ve got to have a trait that I go, wow… There’s nothing with Ty Simpson.” (24:09–24:35)

• Strategy: Teams desperate for a QB will overdraft based on need rather than talent parity.

4. On Head Coach Openings and Bill Belichick’s Viability (25:53–29:17, 41:00–43:01)

• Belichick Not a Hot NFL Candidate: Colin and JMac debate if there’s a fit for Belichick amid seven openings. Colin floats Buffalo as a “revenge” spot if McDermott falters, since Allen takes care of offense and Belichick could reshape defense and culture.

  “That's the one I look at and I think—and by the way, Bill's like, oh, yeah, little payback and Robert Kraft.” (28:12)

• Best Coach Candidates:

  “My take would be Harbaugh 1, Stefanski 2… you get into a group at the third pitch, that's pretty darn solid.” (41:00)

• Harbaugh’s Best Fit: Broken culture teams in need of a grown-up at the helm (e.g., Giants), whereas a place like Baltimore (well-run, needs a play caller) is better for someone like Stefanski.

5. First-Round vs. Non-First-Round QB Playoff Success (17:30–21:39)

• Trend: 12 of 14 playoff QBs were first-round picks—the two exceptions, Purdy and Hurts, are “elevated by other forces.”
• Coaching & Roster Context: Purdy is aided by Shanahan’s system, Hurts by Eagles’ top front office and smart acquisition moves.

  “If you get a Kyle Shanahan, who has the best play sheet in the league, [you can] be elevated significantly.” (18:36) “Hertz has the best GM in the league... The Eagles actually win more the fewer times Jalen Hurts throws.” (19:04)

6. NBA & College Football Quick Hits (29:17–40:58)

• LeBron, Luka, Lakers:

  “LeBron turned back the clock… Here's what he had to say when talking about the Lakers offense: 'It’s up to us to bend our game around him and figure it out.'” (29:39)

• Lakers’ Future: Colin hints at a massive future move rather than a trade-deadline splash:

  “There’s going to be a massive, massive Laker move.” (30:34)

• Indiana Hoosiers’ Football Run: Unprecedented discipline—no fumbles since the first quarter of the season, best red-zone and third-down offense, credit to management.

7. NIL, Transfer Portal, and Need for Guardrails (36:45–39:30)

• NIL Transfer Chaos: Example of Damond Williams Jr. seeking to exit his Washington contract for more money elsewhere—Colin warns against “no parent” chaos in college football.

  “The NCAA has got to step in here. You can't just let guys go willy-nilly. And the players can't win every time.” (38:18)

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On the Harbaugh-Lamar dynamic & organizational power:

  “It’s Lamar’s locker room, not the coach’s locker room. I think Baltimore Ravens fans would burn the city to the ground if the Ravens traded Lamar Jackson.” (paraphrasing RG3 via Colin, 05:00)

• On Baltimore’s future post-Harbaugh:

  “Baltimore is going to win a bunch of games, arguably the best run organization in football.” (06:33)

• On drafting QBs:

  “If there’s one position you could reach on, it’s probably quarterback...I think he’s [Ty Simpson] going to end up going in the first round and I think he’s a second or a third round talent.” (12:13)

• On the Packers’ operational limitations:

  “Green Bay is one of those cities... It’s not attractive to most free agents. Aaron Rodgers still is trying to sell his house.” (10:45)

• On coaching and organizational excellence:

  “Don’t chase money in life. Chase really good management. There’s a sea of money if you’re talented and work hard. There’s a finite amount of really good management.” (33:08)

• On NIL chaos:

  “College football used to be the strictest parent. Now there’s no parent. They went from helicopter to home alone.” (38:55)

• On well-coached teams:

  “You can always tell a well-coached team. I remember when the Patriots, Belichick was in his prime with Brady. They didn’t fumble, they didn’t get penalized.” (35:23)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Harbaugh exit & Baltimore’s QB dilemma: 00:35–08:00
• Packers’ playoff ‘success’ & market challenges: 08:00–12:03
• Ty Simpson/draft QB analysis: 12:03–16:06; 21:39–25:53
• First-round QB playoff stat & ‘Bizarro Bowl’: 17:30–21:39
• Bill Belichick NFL coaching fit: 25:53–29:17
• NBA (LeBron/Luka/Lakers future): 29:17–31:47
• College football/Indiana coaching praise: 33:08–36:45
• NIL, transfer portal, and contracts: 36:45–40:58
• Best coaching candidates & fit for Harbaugh: 41:00–43:01

Takeaways

• Baltimore: The franchise is more loyal to Lamar than Harbaugh at this point—Lamar’s cultural and commercial pull is immense, but his age and cap hit loom.
• Harbaugh’s value: He’ll land well, possibly with an organization that needs a culture reset.
• Packers: Exceptionally run but face substantial market-driven challenges—making their sustained run that much more impressive.
• QB draft market: Teams overdraft out of desperation; first-round QBs overwhelmingly comprise playoff squads, except when uniquely “elevated” by coaching or front office.
• Coaching carousel: Belichick is not an attractive candidate for most openings; Harbaugh/Stefanski are top targets, with team “fit” varying by organizational needs.
• College Football: Management and coaching, not “rigged” refs, matter most for sustained success; NIL chaos needs regulation before instability becomes the new normal.
• NBA: Lakers are setting up for a major move, not just a quick-fix deadline addition.

Useful for:
Anyone wanting a fast, thorough catch-up on the NFL coaching carousel, the ever-present tension between stars and organizations (with the Ravens as case study), NFL draft intrigue, and broader observations on team building, both in pro and college sports.